Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260517

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260517_ARI@COL 20260517_BAL@WAS 20260517_BOS@ATL 20260517_CHC@CHW 20260517_CIN@CLE 20260517_KC@STL 20260517_LAD@LAA 20260517_MIA@TB 20260517_MIL@MIN 20260517_NYY@NYM 20260517_PHI@PIT 20260517_SD@SEA 20260517_SF@OAK 20260517_TEX@HOU 20260517_TOR@DET

20260517_ARI@COL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "ARI 4 - 5 COL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "ARI 4 - 5 COL", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ARI 4 - 5 COL", "winner": "COL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ARI 4 - 6 COL", "winner": "COL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Season-to-date run differential, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	ARI 4 - 5 COL	COL	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	ARI 4 - 6 COL	COL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away ARI	4-6	0.400	3.10	2.80	3	1L	cold	strong
Home COL	4-6	0.400	4.10	5.90	-18	1W	average	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away ARI	21-23	0.477	-19	-0.432	True
Home COL	18-28	0.391	-42	-0.913	True
Signal	-	-	-0.481	-0.610	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	ARI @ COL	2 - 4	COL	2	close
2026-05-16	ARI @ COL	9 - 1	ARI	8	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target ARI	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target COL	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized ARI	34	9	4	0	2	2	8
Player finalized COL	33	9	3	0	1	0	9
Player model fractional ARI	32.66	7.66	4.27	0.70	3.99	3.32	7.35
Player model fractional COL	31.95	7.60	3.89	0.92	3.85	2.78	8.67
Simulation box ARI	34	7	4	1	4	4	9
Simulation box COL	35	11	6	0	6	4	10

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away ARI	Starter	Michael Soroka	6.20	2	8	3	3	3.94	1.34	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Jonathan Loáisiga	0.10	1	1	2	1	3.84	1.24	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Juan Morillo	0	3	0	5	0	4.61	1.38	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Paul Sewald	1	0	1	1	0	4.14	1.30	True
Home COL	Starter	Michael Lorenzen	4.20	3	5	6	1	5.41	1.57	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Antonio Senzatela	2	0	1	0	0	3.05	1.14	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Juan Mejia	1.10	0	1	0	0	2.96	1.19	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Victor Vodnik	1	1	2	1	3	5.68	1.70	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: ARI

Gabriel Moreno (672515) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2162

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	5.000	-0.700	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.400	-0.216	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.268	0.400	-0.018	-0.150
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	3.000	-0.500	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.324	0.600	-0.324	-0.600
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.331	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.732	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.238	-0.012
predicted_H	0.738	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.000
predicted_R	0.393	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.505	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000
predicted_SO	1.023	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.732	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.239	0.002
predicted_H	0.755	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.066	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.250	-0.011
predicted_R	0.408	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.524	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.320	-0.011
predicted_SO	1.016	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	13.000	0.1842	0.2195	0.3158	0.1842	0.0263	0.1842	0.0526	0.3421
season	0.60	20	-	74.000	16.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	8.000	5.000	20.000	0.2162	0.2683	0.3243	0.2162	0.0135	0.1351	0.0676	0.2703

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7850
predicted_AVG	0.2166
predicted_BB	0.2170
predicted_H	0.8200
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_OBP	0.2610
predicted_R	0.3820
predicted_RBI	0.5630
predicted_SLG	0.3311
predicted_SO	1.0610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2170	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.7850	3.7316	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2166	0.2169	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2170	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8200	0.7383	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0700	0.0637	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2610	0.2610	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3820	0.3933	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5630	0.5046	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3310	0.3311	0.3310	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0610	1.0227	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	672515
playerID	672515
playerName	Gabriel Moreno
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ARI
teamID	1

Adrian Del Castillo (680728) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 23

All-history rows before 20260517: 23

System season_avg: 0.1810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1807

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.609	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.609	2.000	-0.609	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.181	0.000	-0.181	0.000
predicted_BB	0.261	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.261	1.000	0.739	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.652	0.000	-0.652	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.233	0.333	0.017	-0.083
predicted_R	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.565	0.000	-0.565	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.281	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.301	0.000	-0.301	0.000
predicted_SO	1.261	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.261	1.000	0.739	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.609	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.261	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.249	-
predicted_R	0.261	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.281	-
predicted_SO	1.261	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.541	-0.068
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	0.031
predicted_H	0.560	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.000
predicted_R	0.246	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.374	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.281	0.000
predicted_SO	1.238	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.541	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.162	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.294	0.002
predicted_H	0.573	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.226	-0.023
predicted_R	0.256	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.388	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.265	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.231	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	0.0769	0.2500	0.1538	0.0769	0.0000	0.0000	0.2308	0.4615
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	14.000	0.1290	0.2000	0.1613	0.1290	0.0000	0.0968	0.0968	0.4516
season	0.60	23	-	83.000	15.000	4.000	2.000	13.000	6.000	6.000	29.000	0.1807	0.2333	0.3012	0.1807	0.0241	0.1566	0.0723	0.3494

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1710
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4290
predicted_AVG	0.1732
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_H	0.5940
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2488
predicted_R	0.2220
predicted_RBI	0.3980
predicted_SLG	0.2815
predicted_SO	1.2010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1710	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6090	3.4290	3.5412	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1732	0.1731	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2610	0.3440	0.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.5940	0.5604	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0619	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2490	0.2488	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2610	0.2220	0.2463	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3980	0.3743	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2810	0.2815	0.2812	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2610	1.2010	1.2384	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.181

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	680728
playerID	680728
playerName	Adrian Del Castillo
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 35

All-history rows before 20260517: 35

System season_avg: 0.3260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3264

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	4.114	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.114	4.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_BB	0.114	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.114	0.000	0.886	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.343	0.000	-1.343	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.000	-0.145	0.200
predicted_R	0.686	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.686	0.000	-0.686	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.771	0.000	-0.771	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.535	0.000	-0.535	0.000
predicted_SO	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	4.114	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.114	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.686	-
predicted_RBI	0.780	-
predicted_SLG	0.473	-
predicted_SO	0.429	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	4.111	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000
predicted_BB	0.118	0.004
predicted_H	1.208	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.000
predicted_R	0.654	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.784	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.000
predicted_SO	0.463	0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	4.111	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.004
predicted_BB	0.119	0.001
predicted_H	1.236	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.174	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.001
predicted_R	0.679	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.813	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.013
predicted_SO	0.460	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.300 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.114

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.3182	0.3182	0.5000	0.3182	0.0454	0.2727	0.0000	0.0909
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.2439	0.2619	0.3415	0.2439	0.0244	0.1951	0.0244	0.1220
season	0.60	35	-	144.000	47.000	7.000	1.000	7.000	27.000	24.000	4.000	15.000	0.3264	0.3446	0.5347	0.3264	0.0486	0.1875	0.0278	0.1042

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	4.1060
predicted_AVG	0.2974
predicted_BB	0.1250
predicted_H	1.2210
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_OBP	0.3198
predicted_R	0.6070
predicted_RBI	0.7890
predicted_SLG	0.4732
predicted_SO	0.5140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1800	0.1920	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0170	0.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1140	4.1060	4.1108	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2974	0.2972	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1140	0.1250	0.1184	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.2210	1.2084	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1690	0.1696	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3198	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6860	0.6070	0.6543	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7800	0.7890	0.7836	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4730	0.4732	0.4731	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4290	0.5140	0.4631	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.326

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Nolan Arenado (571448) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 41

All-history rows before 20260517: 41

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2754

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.366	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.366	3.000	0.634	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.000	-0.025	0.250
predicted_BB	0.366	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.927	0.000	0.073	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	0.854	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.250	-0.100	0.000
predicted_R	0.585	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.585	0.000	0.415	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	0.000	0.512	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.481	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.457	0.000	0.543	1.000
predicted_SO	0.732	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.732	1.000	-0.732	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.366	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.366	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.387	-
predicted_R	0.585	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.481	-
predicted_SO	0.732	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	0.065
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.338	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.451	0.085
predicted_H	0.897	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.103	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.000
predicted_R	0.629	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.000
predicted_SO	0.721	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.338	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.453	0.003
predicted_H	0.918	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.103	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.362	-0.025
predicted_R	0.653	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.443	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.442	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.717	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.6000	0.3333	0.0000	0.1333	0.3333	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	9.000	6.000	0.2759	0.4634	0.5172	0.2759	0.0345	0.1035	0.3103	0.2069
season	0.60	41	-	138.000	38.000	7.000	6.000	20.000	24.000	15.000	30.000	0.2754	0.3503	0.4565	0.2754	0.0435	0.1449	0.1087	0.2174

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3330
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2960
predicted_AVG	0.2802
predicted_BB	0.5760
predicted_H	0.9230
predicted_HBP	0.1030
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_OBP	0.3872
predicted_R	0.6940
predicted_RBI	0.4370
predicted_SLG	0.4809
predicted_SO	0.7050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.3330	0.2363	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3660	3.2960	3.3378	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2802	0.2801	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3660	0.5760	0.4506	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9230	0.8973	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1030	0.1030	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1080	0.1032	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3870	0.3872	0.3871	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5850	0.6940	0.6289	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4370	0.4269	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4810	0.4809	0.4810	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7320	0.7050	0.7211	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	571448
playerID	571448
playerName	Nolan Arenado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ryan Waldschmidt (814439) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 7

All-history rows before 20260517: 7

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.429	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	3.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.333	0.250	0.167
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	1.000	1.143	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.500	0.192	0.000
predicted_R	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.333	0.167	0.167
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.429	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.484	0.055
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.297	0.011
predicted_H	0.758	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.180	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.417	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	0.938	-0.062

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.484	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.299	0.002
predicted_H	0.776	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.055	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.025
predicted_R	0.187	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.932	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.2941	0.2353	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.20	7	-	24.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3077	0.3333	0.2500	0.2083	0.0833	0.2917
season	0.60	7	-	24.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3077	0.3333	0.2500	0.2083	0.0833	0.2917

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6170
predicted_AVG	0.2419
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_H	0.8750
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.3090
predicted_R	0.2700
predicted_RBI	0.4810
predicted_SLG	0.3533
predicted_SO	0.7870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2030	0.2617	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4290	3.6170	3.4841	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2419	0.2420	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3250	0.2974	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8750	0.7584	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0620	0.0535	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3090	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.2700	0.1803	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4810	0.4167	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3533	0.3531	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7870	0.9375	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	814439
playerID	814439
playerName	Ryan Waldschmidt
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 29

All-history rows before 20260517: 29

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2936

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.759	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.759	4.000	0.241	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.500	-0.044	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.103	2.000	-0.103	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.500	-0.080	-0.250
predicted_R	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.690	0.000	0.310	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.448	0.000	0.552	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.413	0.500	-0.163	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.897	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.897	1.000	0.103	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.759	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.172	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.690	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	-
predicted_SO	0.897	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.767	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.191	0.019
predicted_H	0.836	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.000
predicted_R	0.620	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.317	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.349	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.912	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.192	0.001
predicted_H	0.855	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.068	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.033
predicted_R	0.644	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.329	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.319	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.906	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.1944	0.1667	0.0000	0.0278	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.60	29	-	109.000	32.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	20.000	5.000	26.000	0.2936	0.3304	0.4128	0.2936	0.0275	0.1193	0.0459	0.2385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7800
predicted_AVG	0.2484
predicted_BB	0.2210
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.2978
predicted_R	0.5110
predicted_RBI	0.3580
predicted_SLG	0.3486
predicted_SO	0.9350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.1500	0.1427	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7590	3.7800	3.7672	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2484	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1720	0.2210	0.1911	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9390	0.8358	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0750	0.0658	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2978	0.2979	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6900	0.5110	0.6203	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3580	0.3165	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3490	0.3486	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8970	0.9350	0.9118	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	699912
playerID	699912
playerName	Jose Fernandez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 41

All-history rows before 20260517: 41

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2183

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.073	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.073	0.000	0.927	1.000
predicted_AB	3.463	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.463	4.000	-0.463	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.250	0.115	0.083
predicted_BB	0.634	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.634	1.000	0.366	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.756	1.000	0.244	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.400	0.165	0.100
predicted_R	0.390	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.390	0.000	0.610	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.293	0.000	0.707	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.345	0.250	0.655	0.750
predicted_SO	0.561	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.561	0.000	-0.561	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.073	-
predicted_AB	3.463	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.634	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.390	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	0.561	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.002
predicted_3B	0.060	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.516	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.617	-0.017
predicted_H	0.706	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.377	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.259	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000
predicted_SO	0.603	0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.060	0.000
predicted_AB	3.516	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.620	0.004
predicted_H	0.723	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.042	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.007
predicted_R	0.392	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.268	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.318	0.010
predicted_SO	0.599	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	0.1389	0.2791	0.1667	0.1389	0.0000	0.0278	0.1944	0.1944
season	0.60	41	-	142.000	31.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	16.000	26.000	23.000	0.2183	0.3353	0.3451	0.2183	0.0141	0.0845	0.1831	0.1620

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.5940
predicted_AVG	0.2073
predicted_BB	0.5910
predicted_H	0.7450
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.3183
predicted_R	0.3590
predicted_RBI	0.2710
predicted_SLG	0.3083
predicted_SO	0.6650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.1520	0.1484	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0730	0.0410	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4630	3.5940	3.5162	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2073	0.2071	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6340	0.5910	0.6165	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7450	0.7064	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0430	0.0412	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3183	0.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3900	0.3590	0.3774	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2710	0.2585	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3083	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5610	0.6650	0.6032	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

Corbin Carroll (682998) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2721

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2090

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.262	1.000	-0.262	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.333	-0.272	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.619	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.619	2.000	-0.619	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	1.000	-0.024	-1.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.952	1.000	-0.952	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.421	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.384	0.600	-0.384	-0.600
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.504	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.503	0.667	-0.503	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.952	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.952	1.000	2.048	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	-
predicted_3B	0.095	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.619	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.421	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.504	-
predicted_SO	0.952	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.295	0.033
predicted_3B	0.077	-0.018
predicted_AB	3.476	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.294	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.694	0.075
predicted_H	0.992	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.091	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.421	0.000
predicted_R	0.688	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.383	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.504	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.843	-0.109

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.295	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000
predicted_AB	3.476	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.698	0.004
predicted_H	1.015	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.094	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.410	-0.011
predicted_R	0.714	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.398	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.502	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.838	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	1.000	0.4000	0.6087	0.6000	0.4000	0.0000	0.0667	0.5333	0.0667
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	8.000	3.000	0.2941	0.4419	0.5000	0.2941	0.0294	0.0588	0.2353	0.0882
season	0.60	42	-	147.000	40.000	11.000	4.000	5.000	21.000	28.000	26.000	40.000	0.2721	0.3842	0.5034	0.2721	0.0340	0.1429	0.1769	0.2721

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3430
predicted_3B	0.0500
predicted_AB	3.4410
predicted_AVG	0.2937
predicted_BB	0.8020
predicted_H	1.0100
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_OBP	0.4210
predicted_R	0.7180
predicted_RBI	0.3880
predicted_SLG	0.5036
predicted_SO	0.6840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2620	0.3430	0.2950	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0950	0.0500	0.0767	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.4410	3.4760	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2937	0.2939	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6190	0.8020	0.6936	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0100	0.9922	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0930	0.0912	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4210	0.4210	0.4210	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.7180	0.6878	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3880	0.3833	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5040	0.5036	0.5038	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9520	0.6840	0.8428	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	682998
playerID	682998
playerName	Corbin Carroll
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (666971) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2162

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	0.800	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	4.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.500	0.284	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	2.000	1.200	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.500	0.211	0.000
predicted_R	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.270	0.750	0.480	0.000
predicted_SO	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.650	0.000	0.350	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.314	-
predicted_SO	0.650	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.699	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.401	0.001
predicted_H	0.788	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.330	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.385	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.314	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.654	0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.699	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.403	0.003
predicted_H	0.806	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.004
predicted_R	0.342	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.399	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.300	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.650	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2727	0.3158	0.2105	0.1579	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	0.2353	0.3415	0.2941	0.2353	0.0882	0.1765	0.1765
season	0.60	20	-	74.000	16.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	8.000	13.000	0.2162	0.2892	0.2703	0.2162	0.0946	0.1081	0.1757

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2240
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6970
predicted_AVG	0.2255
predicted_BB	0.4020
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.2987
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.4100
predicted_SLG	0.3136
predicted_SO	0.6600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2240	0.2089	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.6970	3.6989	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2255	0.2258	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4020	0.4007	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8340	0.7876	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2987	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.3800	0.3298	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4100	0.3849	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3140	0.3136	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6500	0.6600	0.6537	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666971
playerID	666971
playerName	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Michael Soroka (647336) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 8

All-history rows before 20260517: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	1.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.125	0.000	-0.125	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	5.625	3.000	-2.625	0.000
predicted_IP	6.200	6.200	6.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.300	6.100	0.900	0.100
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_SO	5.875	5.000	2.125	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 8.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.200	12.000	32.000	6.000	24.000	3.000	3.9036	1.3735	0.4337	1.1566	0.2169	0.8675	0.1084
last_10	0.35	8	43.100	17.000	45.000	12.000	47.000	4.000	3.5308	1.3154	0.3923	1.0385	0.2769	1.0846	0.0923
season	0.20	8	43.100	17.000	45.000	12.000	47.000	4.000	3.5308	1.3154	0.3923	1.0385	0.2769	1.0846	0.0923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8900
predicted_ER	2.8470
predicted_ERA	3.9428
predicted_H	6.8200
predicted_HR	0.7380
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	6.1310
predicted_WHIP	1.3403

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.8900	2.4589	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.8470	2.4129	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9428	3.9428	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	6.8200	4.8623	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7380	0.3598	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	8.0000	6.1000	7.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	6.1310	6.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3403	1.3403	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	8
HR	0
BF	26
Pitches	116

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.53
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.1
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	647336
playerID	647336
playerName	Michael Soroka
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 2

All-history rows before 20260517: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	-0.950	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1450
predicted_ER	0.1780
predicted_ERA	3.8396
predicted_H	0.3740
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3960
predicted_WHIP	1.2414

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1450	0.7749	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1780	0.7835	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8396	3.8396	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.3740	1.5718	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0500	0.0132	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.3960	1.5776	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2414	1.2414	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 2

All-history rows before 20260517: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	-0.600	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_ER	0.1810
predicted_ERA	4.6055
predicted_H	0.3380
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3300
predicted_WHIP	1.3840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1520	0.0386	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.1810	2.2847	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6055	4.6055	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	0.3380	3.8171	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0560	0.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3300	0.8300	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3840	1.3840	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 1

All-history rows before 20260517: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	0.900	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100
last_10	0.35	1	0.100
season	0.20	1	0.100

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1250
predicted_ER	0.1530
predicted_ERA	4.1404
predicted_H	0.3090
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3140
predicted_WHIP	1.2995

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1250	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1530	0.0357	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1404	4.1404	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3090	0.8390	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0430	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3140	0.8401	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2995	1.2995	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Home Team: COL

Hunter Goodman (696100) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 39

All-history rows before 20260517: 39

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	-0.050	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.500	-0.112	-0.300
predicted_R	0.641	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.641	0.000	0.359	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.479	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.513	0.500	-0.313	-0.300
predicted_SO	1.538	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.538	1.000	-0.538	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.282	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.641	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.479	-
predicted_SO	1.538	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.002	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.251	-0.031
predicted_H	1.004	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.224	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.572	-0.069
predicted_RBI	0.429	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.479	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.415	-0.123

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.002	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.250	-0.001
predicted_H	1.008	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.044	0.000
predicted_HR	0.225	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.007
predicted_R	0.574	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.470	-0.009
predicted_SO	1.420	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	11.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	11.000	0.2619	0.2791	0.4286	0.2619	0.0476	0.0952	0.0238	0.2619
season	0.60	39	-	156.000	39.000	8.000	11.000	18.000	25.000	11.000	60.000	0.2500	0.3118	0.5128	0.2500	0.0705	0.1154	0.0705	0.3846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0040
predicted_AVG	0.2596
predicted_BB	0.2050
predicted_H	1.0390
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.2300
predicted_OBP	0.3032
predicted_R	0.4710
predicted_RBI	0.4430
predicted_SLG	0.4786
predicted_SO	1.2350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.1830	0.1961	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0040	4.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2596	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2820	0.2050	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0390	1.0040	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2300	0.2241	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3032	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6410	0.4710	0.5720	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4430	0.4293	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4790	0.4786	0.4788	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5380	1.2350	1.4149	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	696100
playerID	696100
playerName	Hunter Goodman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	COL
teamID	9

Mickey Moniak (666160) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 34

All-history rows before 20260517: 34

System season_avg: 0.3150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3154

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.824	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.824	3.000	0.176	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.315	0.333	-0.065	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.265	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.265	0.000	0.735	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.206	1.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.500	0.034	-0.100
predicted_R	0.618	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.618	0.000	-0.618	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.794	2.000	-0.794	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.618	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.692	0.333	-0.442	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.088	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.088	1.000	1.912	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.824	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.265	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.353	-
predicted_R	0.618	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	0.618	-
predicted_SO	1.088	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.271	0.006
predicted_3B	0.075	0.016
predicted_AB	3.806	-0.018
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	-0.008
predicted_H	1.097	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.085	-
predicted_HR	0.242	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.000
predicted_R	0.553	-0.065
predicted_RBI	0.811	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.618	0.000
predicted_SO	1.046	-0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.271	0.000
predicted_3B	0.075	0.000
predicted_AB	3.806	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.257	-0.001
predicted_H	1.101	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.085	0.000
predicted_HR	0.243	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.019
predicted_R	0.554	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.813	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.591	-0.027
predicted_SO	1.049	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.064

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.824

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.7222	0.3333	0.0556	0.3889	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	0.2632	0.3171	0.5263	0.2632	0.0263	0.1842	0.0526	0.3158
season	0.60	34	-	130.000	41.000	9.000	2.000	12.000	27.000	21.000	9.000	37.000	0.3154	0.3662	0.6923	0.3154	0.0923	0.2077	0.0692	0.2846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2790
predicted_3B	0.0990
predicted_AB	3.7780
predicted_AVG	0.2973
predicted_BB	0.2460
predicted_H	1.1230
predicted_HBP	0.0850
predicted_HR	0.2450
predicted_OBP	0.3530
predicted_R	0.4550
predicted_RBI	0.8280
predicted_SLG	0.6180
predicted_SO	0.9820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2650	0.2790	0.2706	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0990	0.0750	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8240	3.7780	3.8056	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2973	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2650	0.2460	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.1230	1.0972	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0850	0.0850	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2450	0.2420	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3530	0.3530	0.3530	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6180	0.4550	0.5530	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	0.8280	0.8112	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6180	0.6180	0.6180	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0880	0.9820	1.0457	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.315

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666160
playerID	666160
playerName	Mickey Moniak
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	COL
teamID	9

Brett Sullivan (664954) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2063

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.294	0.500
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.722	0.000	1.278	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.254	0.000	0.246	0.500
predicted_R	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	1.000	0.833	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.000	0.214	0.500
predicted_SO	0.889	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.187	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.278	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.538	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.000
predicted_BB	0.198	0.031
predicted_H	0.601	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.076	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.000
predicted_R	0.209	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.000
predicted_SO	0.924	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.538	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.197	-0.001
predicted_H	0.603	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.076	0.000
predicted_HR	0.032	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.214	-0.043
predicted_R	0.210	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.289	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.271	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.927	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.0000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.4706
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.1892	0.2683	0.2703	0.1892	0.0811	0.0811	0.2432
season	0.60	18	-	63.000	13.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	16.000	0.2063	0.2537	0.2857	0.2064	0.0952	0.0476	0.2540

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2120
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6060
predicted_AVG	0.1871
predicted_BB	0.2530
predicted_H	0.6750
predicted_HBP	0.0760
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.2573
predicted_R	0.2850
predicted_RBI	0.3210
predicted_SLG	0.2779
predicted_SO	0.9860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.2120	0.2543	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6060	3.5381	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1870	0.1871	0.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2530	0.1979	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6750	0.6013	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0760	0.0760	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2573	0.2571	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.2850	0.2094	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3210	0.2883	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2780	0.2779	0.2780	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	0.9860	0.9239	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	664954
playerID	664954
playerName	Brett Sullivan
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	COL
teamID	9

Edouard Julien (666397) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 31

All-history rows before 20260517: 31

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.484	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.484	4.000	0.516	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.452	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.871	0.000	-0.871	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.000	-0.136	0.200
predicted_R	0.484	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.484	0.000	-0.484	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.387	0.000	-0.387	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.352	0.000	-0.352	0.000
predicted_SO	1.097	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.097	1.000	0.903	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.484	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.452	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.285	-
predicted_R	0.484	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.298	-
predicted_SO	1.097	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.090	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.026	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.485	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.425	-0.027
predicted_H	0.707	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000
predicted_R	0.439	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.301	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.000
predicted_SO	1.079	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.090	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.485	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.424	-0.002
predicted_H	0.710	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.005
predicted_R	0.440	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.302	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.305	0.007
predicted_SO	1.082	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.0667	0.1250	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	14.000	0.1667	0.2683	0.2500	0.1667	0.0278	0.0556	0.1389	0.3889
season	0.60	31	-	108.000	27.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	14.000	34.000	0.2500	0.3361	0.3519	0.2500	0.0185	0.1111	0.1296	0.3148

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0790
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.4870
predicted_AVG	0.2060
predicted_BB	0.3840
predicted_H	0.7180
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.2852
predicted_R	0.3690
predicted_RBI	0.3030
predicted_SLG	0.2983
predicted_SO	1.0500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.0790	0.0899	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0180	0.0265	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4840	3.4870	3.4852	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2060	0.2060	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4520	0.3840	0.4253	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7180	0.7071	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0690	0.0696	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2850	0.2852	0.2851	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4840	0.3690	0.4389	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3030	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2980	0.2983	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0970	1.0500	1.0786	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B-2B
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666397
playerID	666397
playerName	Edouard Julien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

TJ Rumfield (681198) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2722

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.762	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.762	3.000	0.238	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.333	0.228	0.167
predicted_BB	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.024	1.000	0.976	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.500	0.155	0.000
predicted_R	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	0.000	0.595	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.524	1.000	-0.524	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.449	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.424	0.333	0.076	0.167
predicted_SO	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.762	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.381	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.449	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.735	-0.027
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.401	0.020
predicted_H	0.990	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.438	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.459	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.449	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.728	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.399	-0.001
predicted_H	0.994	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.144	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.020
predicted_R	0.440	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.461	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.437	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.730	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	0.2973	0.3953	0.4865	0.2973	0.0541	0.1081	0.1351	0.1892
season	0.60	42	-	158.000	43.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	22.000	17.000	16.000	30.000	0.2722	0.3446	0.4241	0.2722	0.0316	0.1392	0.1013	0.1899

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.6950
predicted_AVG	0.2761
predicted_BB	0.4290
predicted_H	1.0200
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3570
predicted_R	0.4870
predicted_RBI	0.4730
predicted_SLG	0.4485
predicted_SO	0.7480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1640	0.1658	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7620	3.6950	3.7347	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2761	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3810	0.4290	0.4006	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.0200	0.9904	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1480	0.1433	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3570	0.3570	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.4870	0.4384	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4730	0.4594	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4490	0.4485	0.4488	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7480	0.7279	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	681198
playerID	681198
playerName	TJ Rumfield
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

Willi Castro (650489) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 33

All-history rows before 20260517: 33

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2417

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.636	4.000	0.364	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.500	-0.242	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.879	2.000	-0.879	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.500	-0.305	-0.500
predicted_R	0.576	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.576	1.000	-0.576	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.500	-0.333	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.273	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.273	1.000	1.727	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.636	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.576	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	1.273	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.637	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	-0.009
predicted_H	0.743	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.000
predicted_R	0.566	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.285	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000
predicted_SO	1.220	-0.053

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.637	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.293	-0.001
predicted_H	0.745	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.018
predicted_R	0.567	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.286	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.294	-0.014
predicted_SO	1.225	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	0.2432	0.3000	0.3243	0.2432	0.0270	0.0541	0.0811	0.3243
season	0.60	33	-	120.000	29.000	5.000	2.000	13.000	19.000	10.000	42.000	0.2417	0.3053	0.3333	0.2417	0.0167	0.1083	0.0833	0.3500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6380
predicted_AVG	0.2222
predicted_BB	0.2810
predicted_H	0.8080
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2818
predicted_R	0.5500
predicted_RBI	0.3090
predicted_SLG	0.3082
predicted_SO	1.1400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1060	0.1338	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6360	3.6380	3.6368	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.2810	0.2943	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8080	0.7427	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0670	0.0628	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2818	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5760	0.5500	0.5657	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3090	0.2854	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3082	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2730	1.1400	1.2204	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	650489
playerID	650489
playerName	Willi Castro
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Jake McCarthy (664983) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 29

All-history rows before 20260517: 29

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2824

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.241	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.241	0.000	0.759	1.000
predicted_3B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_AB	2.931	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.931	3.000	0.069	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.667	0.384	0.000
predicted_BB	0.207	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.207	0.000	0.793	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.828	2.000	1.172	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.667	0.413	0.083
predicted_R	0.276	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.276	0.000	0.724	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.517	1.000	-0.517	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.472	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.482	0.667	0.518	0.333
predicted_SO	0.552	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.552	0.000	-0.552	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	-
predicted_3B	0.069	-
predicted_AB	2.931	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.207	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.276	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.472	-
predicted_SO	0.552	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.063	-0.006
predicted_AB	2.991	0.060
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.205	-0.002
predicted_H	0.770	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.077	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.331	-0.000
predicted_R	0.283	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.497	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.472	0.000
predicted_SO	0.559	0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.063	0.000
predicted_AB	2.991	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.205	-0.001
predicted_H	0.772	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.025
predicted_R	0.284	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.498	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.456	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.561	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.3077	0.3077	0.3846	0.3077	0.0000	0.1538	0.0000	0.1538
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.3103	0.3750	0.6552	0.3103	0.0690	0.3103	0.1035	0.1379
season	0.60	29	-	85.000	24.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	15.000	8.000	6.000	16.000	0.2824	0.3370	0.4824	0.2823	0.0235	0.1765	0.0706	0.1882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2190
predicted_3B	0.0520
predicted_AB	3.0900
predicted_AVG	0.2810
predicted_BB	0.2030
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_OBP	0.3305
predicted_R	0.2940
predicted_RBI	0.5570
predicted_SLG	0.4722
predicted_SO	0.5700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2410	0.2190	0.2327	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0690	0.0520	0.0626	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9310	3.0900	2.9911	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2810	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2070	0.2030	0.2055	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8680	0.7697	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0890	0.0772	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3305	0.3308	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2760	0.2940	0.2828	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5570	0.4967	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4720	0.4722	0.4721	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5520	0.5700	0.5588	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	664983
playerID	664983
playerName	Jake McCarthy
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Karros (691720) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 39

All-history rows before 20260517: 39

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	1.000	0.821	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.077	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.077	4.000	-0.077	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.250	0.108	0.083
predicted_BB	0.538	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.538	0.000	0.462	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.692	1.000	0.308	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.250	0.164	0.250
predicted_R	0.436	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.436	1.000	0.564	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.256	0.000	0.744	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.345	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.500	0.358	0.167
predicted_SO	0.897	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.897	0.000	-0.897	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.077	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.538	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.436	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.345	-
predicted_SO	0.897	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	0.029
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.163	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.493	-0.045
predicted_H	0.679	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000
predicted_R	0.436	-0.000
predicted_RBI	0.347	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.891	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.163	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.492	-0.002
predicted_H	0.681	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.025	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	-0.002
predicted_R	0.437	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.348	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.305	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.894	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.3529	0.2353	0.0000	0.1765	0.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	11.000	0.2727	0.3514	0.3939	0.2727	0.0000	0.1818	0.1212	0.3333
season	0.60	39	-	120.000	27.000	7.000	1.000	10.000	17.000	21.000	35.000	0.2250	0.3357	0.3083	0.2250	0.0083	0.0833	0.1750	0.2917

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2520
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2920
predicted_AVG	0.2379
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_H	0.7830
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.3234
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.4020
predicted_SLG	0.3448
predicted_SO	0.8820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.2520	0.2081	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0770	3.2920	3.1628	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2379	0.2380	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5380	0.4260	0.4933	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7830	0.6791	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0320	0.0248	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3234	0.3232	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4360	0.4350	0.4356	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.4020	0.3467	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3450	0.3448	0.3449	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8970	0.8820	0.8910	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	691720
playerID	691720
playerName	Kyle Karros
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	COL
teamID	9

Troy Johnston (687859) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 36

All-history rows before 20260517: 36

System season_avg: 0.3150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3150

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3150

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.629	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.528	3.000	0.472	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.315	0.000	0.185	0.500
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.111	0.000	0.889	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.000	0.121	0.500
predicted_R	0.371	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.361	0.000	0.639	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	2.500	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.449	0.000	0.051	0.500
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.314	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.629	-
predicted_AVG	0.295	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.428	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.318	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.592	-0.037
predicted_AVG	0.295	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.267	-0.019
predicted_H	0.980	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.073	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.352	-0.000
predicted_R	0.384	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.000
predicted_SO	0.783	-0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.318	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.592	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.266	-0.001
predicted_H	0.984	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.073	0.000
predicted_HR	0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.028
predicted_R	0.385	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.399	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.786	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.3750	0.2500	0.0000	0.1250	0.0000	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.3333	0.4054	0.4545	0.3333	0.0000	0.0909	0.0909	0.2121
season	0.60	35	-	127.000	40.000	11.000	2.000	18.000	13.000	10.000	28.000	0.3150	0.3696	0.4488	0.3150	0.0158	0.1417	0.0787	0.2205

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3240
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5350
predicted_AVG	0.2946
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	1.0410
predicted_HBP	0.0730
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.3516
predicted_R	0.4030
predicted_RBI	0.4510
predicted_SLG	0.4280
predicted_SO	0.7580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3140	0.3240	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6290	3.5350	3.5916	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2950	0.2946	0.2948	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2370	0.2665	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0410	0.9802	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0730	0.0730	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0480	0.0432	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3516	0.3518	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.4030	0.3837	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4510	0.4263	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4280	0.4280	0.4280	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.7580	0.7833	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.315

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-1B
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	687859
playerID	687859
playerName	Troy Johnston
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

Michael Lorenzen (547179) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 10

All-history rows before 20260517: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.400	2.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	3.200	2.000	-0.200	1.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	6.700	5.000	-0.700	1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.260	5.000	-0.060	-0.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	3.100	5.000	1.900	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	17.000	34.000	9.000	18.000	3.000	5.5976	1.5732	0.6220	1.2439	0.3293	0.6585	0.1098
last_10	0.35	10	44.000	32.000	67.000	14.000	31.000	7.000	6.5455	1.8409	0.7273	1.5227	0.3182	0.7046	0.1591
season	0.20	10	44.000	32.000	67.000	14.000	31.000	7.000	6.5455	1.8409	0.7273	1.5227	0.3182	0.7046	0.1591

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7270
predicted_ER	3.0290
predicted_ERA	5.4067
predicted_H	6.1670
predicted_HR	0.6600
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	3.8850
predicted_WHIP	1.5658

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.7270	1.3702	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.0290	2.5239	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.4067	5.4067	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	6.1670	4.6126	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6600	0.8269	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.0000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	3.8850	4.4323	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5658	1.5658	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	5
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	81

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	6.55
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	85
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	547179
playerID	547179
playerName	Michael Lorenzen
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 13

All-history rows before 20260517: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.615	1.000	-0.615	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.154	1.000	-1.154	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.946	1.000	0.054	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.923	1.000	-0.923	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	2.6129	1.0645	0.2903	0.6774	0.3871	0.6774	0.0968
last_10	0.35	10	21.000	4.000	13.000	7.000	16.000	1.000	1.7143	0.9524	0.1905	0.6190	0.3333	0.7619	0.0476
season	0.20	13	28.100	4.000	15.000	8.000	25.000	1.000	1.2706	0.8118	0.1412	0.5294	0.2823	0.8823	0.0353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6230
predicted_ER	0.5830
predicted_ERA	3.0490
predicted_H	1.3320
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4550
predicted_WHIP	1.1357

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6230	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5830	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0490	3.0490	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3320	0.6010	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1670	0.0753	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4550	1.2053	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1357	1.1357	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.27
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Juan Mejia (675848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.611	2.000	-0.611	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.222	0.000	-1.222	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.067	1.200	0.033	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.444	0.000	-0.444	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.1500	0.6000	1.3500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	19.000	1.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.6154	0.5385	1.4615	0.0769
season	0.20	18	22.000	10.000	22.000	11.000	26.000	2.000	4.0909	1.5000	0.4546	1.0000	0.5000	1.1818	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6170
predicted_ER	0.4380
predicted_ERA	2.9598
predicted_H	0.9680
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5220
predicted_WHIP	1.1883

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6170	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4380	0.1859	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9598	2.9598	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9680	0.9864	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1210	0.0514	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5220	1.2216	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1883	1.1883	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.09
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	35
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	21
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	675848
playerID	675848
playerName	Juan Mejia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 16

All-history rows before 20260517: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	0.688	1.000	2.312	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.812	1.000	0.188	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.500	2.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.975	0.200	0.025	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.938	1.000	1.062	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	4.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	6.7500	2.2500	0.7500	1.3125	0.9375	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	11.000	16.000	8.000	10.000	1.000	9.9000	2.4000	1.1000	1.6000	0.8000	1.0000	0.1000
season	0.20	16	17.000	13.000	24.000	11.000	15.000	2.000	6.8824	2.0588	0.7647	1.4118	0.6471	0.8823	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5610
predicted_ER	0.6310
predicted_ERA	5.6795
predicted_H	1.1370
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9520
predicted_WHIP	1.6985

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.5610	2.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6310	1.4555	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6795	5.6795	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.1370	2.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1010	0.0402	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9520	1.5832	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6985	1.6985	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	2
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.88
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

20260517_BAL@WAS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.546651, "home_win_probability": 0.546651, "away_win_probability": 0.453349, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 WAS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 WAS", "confidence": 0.546651, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 WAS", "winner": "WAS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 2 - 5 WAS", "winner": "WAS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -2, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	BAL 4 - 5 WAS	WAS	0.547	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	BAL 2 - 5 WAS	WAS	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away BAL	4-6	0.400	3.40	4.30	-9	2L	cold	average
Home WAS	7-3	0.700	6.90	5.30	16	2W	hot	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away BAL	20-26	0.435	-48	-1.043	True
Home WAS	23-23	0.500	-9	-0.196	True
Signal	-	-	0.848	0.946	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	BAL @ WAS	3 - 13	WAS	10	blowout
2026-05-15	BAL @ WAS	2 - 3	WAS	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target BAL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target WAS	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized BAL	32	9	4	0	0	2	9
Player finalized WAS	35	9	7	0	7	2	9
Player model fractional BAL	31.86	6.69	4.07	0.85	3.40	3.83	9.02
Player model fractional WAS	33.49	8.13	5.51	1.42	5.28	3.10	7.69
Simulation box BAL	31	4	2	0	2	4	10
Simulation box WAS	31	7	5	1	5	4	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away BAL	Starter	Brandon Young	5.10	5	5	6	4	4.17	1.35	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Dietrich Enns	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.00	1.23	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Rico Garcia	1	0	1	0	0	2.58	0.98	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Anthony Nunez	0.10	0	0	0	0	3.83	1.31	True
Home WAS	Starter	Richard Lovelady	4	2	6	3	1	2.59	1.51	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Brad Lord	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.03	1.19	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Gus Varland	1	0	0	1	0	5.18	1.49	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Paxton Schultz	1	0	1	0	2	3.04	1.18	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	PJ Poulin	1.20	0	2	0	1	2.89	1.51	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: BAL

Jeremiah Jackson (669236) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 37

All-history rows before 20260517: 37

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2426

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	4.000	-0.676	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.250	-0.243	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.081	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.892	1.000	-0.892	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.261	0.250	-0.011	0.000
predicted_R	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.676	0.000	-0.676	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.250	-0.404	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.811	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.811	1.000	1.189	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.676	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.081	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.270	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.337	-
predicted_SO	0.811	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.681	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.091	0.010
predicted_H	0.728	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000
predicted_R	0.249	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.000
predicted_SO	0.806	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.681	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.090	-0.001
predicted_H	0.726	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.095	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.216	-0.023
predicted_R	0.247	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.422	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.307	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.810	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	0.1622	0.1795	0.1892	0.1622	0.0000	0.0270	0.0270	0.1892
season	0.60	37	-	136.000	33.000	4.000	6.000	25.000	10.000	3.000	30.000	0.2426	0.2606	0.4044	0.2427	0.0441	0.1838	0.0221	0.2206

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1350
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6890
predicted_AVG	0.2170
predicted_BB	0.1050
predicted_H	0.8010
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.2395
predicted_R	0.2170
predicted_RBI	0.4660
predicted_SLG	0.3371
predicted_SO	0.7980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.1350	0.1188	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6760	3.6890	3.6812	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2170	0.2170	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0810	0.1050	0.0906	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8010	0.7283	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1010	0.0944	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2395	0.2392	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2700	0.2170	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4660	0.4263	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3370	0.3371	0.3370	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8110	0.7980	0.8058	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	669236
playerID	669236
playerName	Jeremiah Jackson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Samuel Basallo (694212) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 32

All-history rows before 20260517: 32

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.250	0.067	0.083
predicted_BB	0.344	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.344	0.000	0.656	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	1.000	-0.188	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.250	0.172	0.250
predicted_R	0.531	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.531	1.000	0.469	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.469	1.000	-0.469	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.506	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.483	1.000	-0.150	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.062	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.062	2.000	-1.062	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.344	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.531	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.506	-
predicted_SO	1.062	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.026
predicted_3B	0.032	0.001
predicted_AB	3.760	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.321	-0.023
predicted_H	1.034	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.155	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.449	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.506	0.000
predicted_SO	1.064	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.760	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.319	-0.002
predicted_H	1.030	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.156	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.331	-0.012
predicted_R	0.551	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.445	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.473	-0.033
predicted_SO	1.070	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.6316	0.3684	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	2.000	10.000	0.3421	0.3750	0.5789	0.3421	0.0263	0.1579	0.0526	0.2632
season	0.60	32	-	120.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	15.000	17.000	11.000	34.000	0.2667	0.3282	0.4833	0.2667	0.0500	0.1250	0.0917	0.2833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2550
predicted_3B	0.0340
predicted_AB	3.7750
predicted_AVG	0.2913
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_H	1.1000
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1630
predicted_OBP	0.3432
predicted_R	0.5940
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.5065
predicted_SO	1.0680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.2550	0.2145	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0340	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7750	3.7599	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2913	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3440	0.2860	0.3211	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.1000	1.0335	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1630	0.1551	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3432	0.3431	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5310	0.5940	0.5559	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4790	0.4494	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5060	0.5065	0.5062	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0620	1.0680	1.0644	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	694212
playerID	694212
playerName	Samuel Basallo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Colton Cowser (681297) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 23

All-history rows before 20260517: 23

System season_avg: 0.1620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1618

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2490

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.957	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.957	1.000	0.043	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.160	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.162	0.000	0.172	0.333
predicted_BB	0.391	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.391	1.000	0.609	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.478	0.000	0.522	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.256	0.500	0.244	0.000
predicted_R	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.191	0.000	0.142	0.333
predicted_SO	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.130	0.000	-0.130	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.957	-
predicted_AVG	0.160	-
predicted_BB	0.391	-
predicted_H	0.390	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.250	-
predicted_R	0.261	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.219	-
predicted_SO	1.130	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.074	0.117
predicted_AVG	0.160	0.000
predicted_BB	0.390	-0.002
predicted_H	0.439	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.260	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.258	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.000
predicted_SO	1.149	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.074	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.142	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.387	-0.002
predicted_H	0.438	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.238	-0.012
predicted_R	0.257	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.255	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.196	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.156	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.143 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	0.0625	0.2105	0.0625	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875	0.4375
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	16.000	0.0909	0.1667	0.1212	0.0909	0.0606	0.0909	0.4849
season	0.60	23	-	68.000	11.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	9.000	26.000	0.1618	0.2564	0.1912	0.1618	0.0735	0.1323	0.3824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2750
predicted_AVG	0.1600
predicted_BB	0.3870
predicted_H	0.5240
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2503
predicted_R	0.2570
predicted_RBI	0.3050
predicted_SLG	0.2191
predicted_SO	1.1830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0870	0.0990	0.0914	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9570	3.2750	3.0743	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1600	0.1600	0.1600	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3910	0.3870	0.3895	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3900	0.5240	0.4394	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0233	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2500	0.2503	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2610	0.2570	0.2595	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.3050	0.2577	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2190	0.2191	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1300	1.1830	1.1495	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.162

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681297
playerID	681297
playerName	Colton Cowser
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 46

All-history rows before 20260517: 46

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2197

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.239	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.239	1.000	0.761	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.761	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.761	4.000	0.239	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.500	0.030	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.826	2.000	0.174	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.500	-0.058	-0.250
predicted_R	0.587	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.587	0.000	0.413	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.422	0.750	0.078	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.022	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.022	0.000	0.978	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.761	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.457	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.587	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	1.022	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.783	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.384	-0.073
predicted_H	0.833	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.513	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.443	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.989	-0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.783	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.382	-0.002
predicted_H	0.831	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.136	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.010
predicted_R	0.509	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.439	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.387	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.994	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	9.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3750	0.2000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.2250
season	0.60	46	-	173.000	38.000	11.000	8.000	23.000	27.000	21.000	47.000	0.2197	0.3077	0.4220	0.2197	0.0462	0.1330	0.1214	0.2717

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8140
predicted_AVG	0.2271
predicted_BB	0.2790
predicted_H	0.8660
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.2810
predicted_R	0.4080
predicted_RBI	0.4610
predicted_SLG	0.3918
predicted_SO	0.9410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2390	0.2020	0.2238	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7610	3.8140	3.7828	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2271	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4570	0.2790	0.3838	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8660	0.8330	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1410	0.1345	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2810	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5870	0.4080	0.5134	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4610	0.4427	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3918	0.3919	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0220	0.9410	0.9887	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Tyler O'Neill (641933) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

System season_avg: 0.1720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1724

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.053	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.053	4.000	0.947	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.172	0.250	-0.172	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.632	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	1.000	-0.105	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	-0.333	-0.250
predicted_R	0.684	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.684	1.000	-0.684	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.293	1.000	-0.293	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.947	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.947	1.000	2.053	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.053	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.632	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.684	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.337	-
predicted_SO	0.947	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.076	0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.117	0.064
predicted_AVG	0.184	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.628	-0.004
predicted_H	0.547	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.055	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.671	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.359	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.000
predicted_SO	0.965	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.076	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.117	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.625	-0.003
predicted_H	0.545	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.055	0.000
predicted_HR	0.116	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.012
predicted_R	0.665	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.356	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.311	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.970	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.1333	0.3158	0.4000	0.1333	0.0667	0.1333	0.2667	0.4667
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	9.000	9.000	0.1429	0.3514	0.2857	0.1429	0.0357	0.1071	0.3214	0.3214
season	0.60	19	-	58.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	13.000	12.000	18.000	0.1724	0.3333	0.2931	0.1724	0.0345	0.1207	0.2069	0.3103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2290
predicted_AVG	0.1838
predicted_BB	0.6220
predicted_H	0.5930
predicted_HBP	0.0550
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_OBP	0.3251
predicted_R	0.6480
predicted_RBI	0.3920
predicted_SLG	0.3371
predicted_SO	0.9970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0530	0.1150	0.0756	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0530	3.2290	3.1171	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1838	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6320	0.6220	0.6284	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.5930	0.5466	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0550	0.0550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1240	0.1151	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3251	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6840	0.6480	0.6709	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3920	0.3589	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3370	0.3371	0.3370	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9470	0.9970	0.9652	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.172

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	641933
playerID	641933
playerName	Tyler O'Neill
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Coby Mayo (691723) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 35

All-history rows before 20260517: 35

System season_avg: 0.1840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1842

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.257	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.257	3.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.184	0.333	-0.184	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.314	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.314	1.000	0.686	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.262	0.500	-0.012	-0.250
predicted_R	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.333	-0.325	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.114	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.114	1.000	-0.114	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.257	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.314	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.314	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	1.114	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.253	-0.004
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.019
predicted_H	0.690	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.074	-
predicted_HR	0.118	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.000
predicted_R	0.332	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.459	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.000
predicted_SO	1.099	-0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.253	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.332	-0.002
predicted_H	0.688	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.074	0.000
predicted_HR	0.119	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.034
predicted_R	0.329	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.455	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.036
predicted_SO	1.104	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.3571	0.5000	0.6429	0.3571	0.0714	0.2857	0.2143	0.3571
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	0.2333	0.3235	0.3667	0.2333	0.0333	0.1333	0.1000	0.4000
season	0.60	35	-	114.000	21.000	4.000	4.000	15.000	11.000	11.000	39.000	0.1842	0.2619	0.3246	0.1842	0.0351	0.1316	0.0965	0.3421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1400
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2460
predicted_AVG	0.2316
predicted_BB	0.3630
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HBP	0.0740
predicted_HR	0.1300
predicted_OBP	0.3186
predicted_R	0.3600
predicted_RBI	0.5040
predicted_SLG	0.3963
predicted_SO	1.0750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1400	0.1242	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2570	3.2460	3.2527	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2316	0.2318	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3140	0.3630	0.3333	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7520	0.6902	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0740	0.0740	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1300	0.1179	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3186	0.3188	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3140	0.3600	0.3321	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5040	0.4591	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3963	0.3961	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1140	1.0750	1.0986	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.184

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	691723
playerID	691723
playerName	Coby Mayo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.1990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1990

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	4.244	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.244	3.000	-0.244	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.199	0.000	0.051	0.250
predicted_BB	0.311	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.311	1.000	-0.311	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.844	0.000	0.156	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.234	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.256	0.250	-0.006	0.000
predicted_R	0.511	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.511	0.000	-0.511	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.489	0.000	-0.489	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.393	0.000	-0.143	0.250
predicted_SO	1.311	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.311	1.000	-1.311	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	4.244	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.311	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.234	-
predicted_R	0.511	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.319	-
predicted_SO	1.311	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.181	0.003
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.200	-0.044
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	-0.018
predicted_H	0.739	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.234	-0.000
predicted_R	0.436	-0.075
predicted_RBI	0.395	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.000
predicted_SO	1.204	-0.107

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.181	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	4.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.292	-0.002
predicted_H	0.737	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.229	-0.005
predicted_R	0.432	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.392	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.313	-0.006
predicted_SO	1.210	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 4.244

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.1000	0.1429	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	0.1667	0.2045	0.2143	0.1667	0.0000	0.0714	0.0476	0.2143
season	0.60	45	-	191.000	38.000	8.000	1.000	9.000	22.000	23.000	14.000	59.000	0.1990	0.2560	0.3927	0.1989	0.0471	0.1152	0.0733	0.3089

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1860
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	4.1380
predicted_AVG	0.1818
predicted_BB	0.2680
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1190
predicted_OBP	0.2335
predicted_R	0.3290
predicted_RBI	0.4020
predicted_SLG	0.3194
predicted_SO	1.0510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1780	0.1860	0.1813	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2440	4.1380	4.2002	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1818	0.1819	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3110	0.2680	0.2932	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7520	0.7391	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1190	0.1196	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2340	0.2335	0.2338	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5110	0.3290	0.4358	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4020	0.3950	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3190	0.3194	0.3192	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3110	1.0510	1.2036	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.199

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Leody Taveras (665750) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 29

All-history rows before 20260517: 29

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2653

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.379	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.379	4.000	-0.379	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.500	-0.265	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.552	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.552	0.000	0.448	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.897	2.000	-0.897	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.500	-0.118	-0.250
predicted_R	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.483	1.000	-0.483	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.621	0.000	-0.621	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.398	0.500	-0.398	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.793	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.793	2.000	0.207	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.379	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.552	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.483	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.352	-
predicted_SO	0.793	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.434	0.055
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.489	-0.063
predicted_H	0.786	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.486	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.387	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.842	0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.434	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.487	-0.003
predicted_H	0.784	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.001
predicted_R	0.481	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.384	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.846	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	11.000	0.2286	0.3077	0.2857	0.2286	0.0000	0.0571	0.1143	0.3143
season	0.60	29	-	98.000	26.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	18.000	14.000	16.000	23.000	0.2653	0.3684	0.3980	0.2653	0.0204	0.1837	0.1633	0.2347

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0200
predicted_AB	3.5210
predicted_AVG	0.2482
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_H	0.8740
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.3225
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.4300
predicted_SLG	0.3517
predicted_SO	0.9180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.1520	0.1642	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0200	0.0286	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3790	3.5210	3.4342	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2482	0.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5520	0.3910	0.4894	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8740	0.7860	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0580	0.0531	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3225	0.3228	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4830	0.4900	0.4857	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4300	0.3872	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3520	0.3517	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7930	0.9180	0.8416	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	665750
playerID	665750
playerName	Leody Taveras
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2687

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.311	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.311	0.000	-0.311	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.556	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	5.000	0.444	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.400	-0.269	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.956	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.956	0.000	-0.956	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.956	2.000	-0.956	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.404	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.424	0.400	-0.424	-0.400
predicted_R	0.622	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.622	0.000	-0.622	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.400	-0.375	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.822	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.822	2.000	-0.822	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.311	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.956	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.404	-
predicted_R	0.622	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	-
predicted_SO	0.822	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.281	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.561	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.919	-0.037
predicted_H	0.911	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.404	-0.000
predicted_R	0.600	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.254	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000
predicted_SO	0.854	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.281	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.561	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.914	-0.005
predicted_H	0.908	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.003
predicted_R	0.594	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.252	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.009
predicted_SO	0.858	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.3684	0.3158	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	12.000	12.000	0.1875	0.4091	0.2188	0.1875	0.0000	0.0312	0.3750	0.3750
season	0.60	45	-	160.000	43.000	14.000	1.000	13.000	28.000	43.000	37.000	0.2687	0.4244	0.3750	0.2687	0.0063	0.0813	0.2687	0.2313

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5670
predicted_AVG	0.2596
predicted_BB	0.8670
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.4038
predicted_R	0.5680
predicted_RBI	0.2600
predicted_SLG	0.3491
predicted_SO	0.8990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3110	0.2370	0.2805	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5560	3.5670	3.5605	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2596	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9560	0.8670	0.9193	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9260	0.9107	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0260	0.0283	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4040	0.4038	0.4039	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6220	0.5680	0.5997	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2600	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3490	0.3491	0.3490	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8220	0.8990	0.8538	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Brandon Young (687064) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 5

All-history rows before 20260517: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	2.200	3.000	1.800	1.000
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_ER	2.400	2.000	2.600	3.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	5.000	3.000	1.000	3.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.060	5.100	0.040	0.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	3.800	5.000	1.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.000	12.000	25.000	11.000	19.000	4.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	0.9615	0.4231	0.7308	0.1538
last_10	0.35	5	26.000	12.000	25.000	11.000	19.000	4.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	0.9615	0.4231	0.7308	0.1538
season	0.20	5	26.000	12.000	25.000	11.000	19.000	4.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	0.9615	0.4231	0.7308	0.1538

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1380
predicted_ER	2.4740
predicted_ERA	4.1746
predicted_H	5.0650
predicted_HR	0.7570
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.4940
predicted_WHIP	1.3507

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	2.1380	3.1830	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	2.4740	3.8917	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1746	4.1746	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	5.0650	5.5898	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7570	0.8934	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.4940	4.7780	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3507	1.3507	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	6
R	5
ER	5
BB	4
SO	5
HR	1
BF	26
Pitches	101

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	54
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	687064
playerID	687064
playerName	Brandon Young
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dietrich Enns (608650) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 10

All-history rows before 20260517: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.080	1.000	0.020	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.100	0.000	-0.100	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.0000	0.9000	0.0000	0.6000	0.3000	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	12.200	2.000	8.000	8.000	11.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.6316	0.6316	0.8684
season	0.20	10	12.200	2.000	8.000	8.000	11.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.6316	0.6316	0.8684

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5350
predicted_ER	0.4440
predicted_ERA	2.9996
predicted_H	1.1060
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1290
predicted_WHIP	1.2305

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5350	0.1973	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4440	0.1638	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9996	2.9996	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1060	1.0391	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1150	0.0424	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1290	1.0476	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2305	1.2305	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	608650
playerID	608650
playerName	Dietrich Enns
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.880	1.000	0.120	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.100	2.000	-0.100	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000	0.0000	0.5625	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	1.0000	0.5556	0.1111	0.1111	0.4444	1.3333	0.1111
season	0.20	20	19.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	22.000	1.000	0.4737	0.4211	0.0526	0.0526	0.3684	1.1579	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4230
predicted_ER	0.2870
predicted_ERA	2.5826
predicted_H	0.5560
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0980
predicted_WHIP	0.9792

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4230	0.1731	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2870	0.1174	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5826	2.5826	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5560	0.2275	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0980	1.0401	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9792	0.9792	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.47
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Anthony Nunez (689296) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.895	1.000	-0.895	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.979	1.000	-0.879	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	1.000	-1.158	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	3.1765	1.4118	0.3529	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	5.000	11.000	4.000	11.000	3.000	3.9706	1.3235	0.4412	0.9706	0.3529	0.9706	0.2647
season	0.20	18	20.000	6.000	15.000	5.000	22.000	4.000	2.7000	1.0000	0.3000	0.7500	0.2500	1.1000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2250
predicted_ER	0.2670
predicted_ERA	3.8253
predicted_H	0.5970
predicted_HR	0.1270
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5780
predicted_WHIP	1.3087

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2250	0.0933	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2670	0.1107	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8253	3.8253	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5970	0.2475	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1270	0.0526	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5780	0.2396	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3087	1.3087	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.05
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	689296
playerID	689296
playerName	Anthony Nunez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Home Team: WAS

Luis García Jr. (671277) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 33

All-history rows before 20260517: 33

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2689

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	0.758	1.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.606	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.606	3.000	0.394	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.333	-0.019	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.970	1.000	0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.333	-0.052	-0.083
predicted_R	0.485	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.485	0.000	0.515	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.545	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.445	0.333	0.055	0.167
predicted_SO	0.606	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.606	0.000	0.394	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.606	-
predicted_AVG	0.292	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.485	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.545	-
predicted_SO	0.606	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	0.010
predicted_3B	0.069	0.008
predicted_AB	3.626	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000
predicted_BB	0.204	0.022
predicted_H	1.034	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.162	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.000
predicted_R	0.494	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.561	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.545	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.617	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	0.000
predicted_3B	0.069	0.000
predicted_AB	3.626	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.003
predicted_BB	0.206	0.002
predicted_H	1.071	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.167	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.333	-0.003
predicted_R	0.523	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.595	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.541	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.611	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.295 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.3889	0.4500	0.9444	0.3889	0.1111	0.1667	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.3243	0.3590	0.6216	0.3243	0.0541	0.1351	0.0541	0.1892
season	0.60	33	-	119.000	32.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	21.000	16.000	6.000	20.000	0.2689	0.3016	0.4454	0.2689	0.0252	0.1765	0.0504	0.1681

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2660
predicted_3B	0.0810
predicted_AB	3.6570
predicted_AVG	0.2924
predicted_BB	0.2390
predicted_H	1.0700
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.3355
predicted_R	0.5070
predicted_RBI	0.5780
predicted_SLG	0.5448
predicted_SO	0.6330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.2660	0.2515	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.0810	0.0689	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6060	3.6570	3.6261	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2920	0.2924	0.2922	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.2390	0.2044	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0700	1.0336	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1650	0.1620	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3355	0.3358	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4850	0.5070	0.4937	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5780	0.5610	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5450	0.5448	0.5449	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6060	0.6330	0.6166	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	671277
playerID	671277
playerName	Luis García Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Keibert Ruiz (660688) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 24

All-history rows before 20260517: 24

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2289

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.6000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.458	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.458	5.000	0.542	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.600	0.021	-0.350
predicted_BB	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.792	3.000	0.208	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	1.000	0.833	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.244	0.600	0.006	-0.350
predicted_R	0.458	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.458	2.000	0.542	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.710	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	5.000	2.250	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.564	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.482	1.400	0.518	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.583	0.000	0.417	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.375	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.458	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.042	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.710	-
predicted_SLG	0.564	-
predicted_SO	0.583	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.390	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.557	0.099
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000
predicted_BB	0.060	0.018
predicted_H	0.842	0.082
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.200	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.521	0.063
predicted_RBI	0.790	0.080
predicted_SLG	0.564	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.617	0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.390	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.557	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.061	0.001
predicted_H	0.873	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.206	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.028
predicted_R	0.552	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.837	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.529	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.611	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	8.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	0.3810	0.3810	1.0000	0.3810	0.1429	0.5238	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	7.000	0.000	7.000	0.2821	0.2821	0.6667	0.2821	0.0769	0.2821	0.0000	0.1795
season	0.60	24	-	83.000	19.000	9.000	4.000	18.000	11.000	1.000	14.000	0.2289	0.2442	0.4819	0.2289	0.0482	0.2169	0.0120	0.1687

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4150
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7220
predicted_AVG	0.2632
predicted_BB	0.0910
predicted_H	0.9800
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.2320
predicted_OBP	0.2859
predicted_R	0.6270
predicted_RBI	0.9230
predicted_SLG	0.5636
predicted_SO	0.6730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3750	0.4150	0.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4580	3.7220	3.5568	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2632	0.2631	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0420	0.0910	0.0603	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9800	0.8424	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2320	0.1995	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2859	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.6270	0.5213	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7100	0.9230	0.7897	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5640	0.5636	0.5639	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5830	0.6730	0.6167	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	5
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	660688
playerID	660688
playerName	Keibert Ruiz
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 0

All-history rows before 20260517: 0

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.759	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.897	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.759	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.172	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.690	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	-
predicted_SO	0.897	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.767	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.191	0.019
predicted_H	0.854	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.000
predicted_R	0.620	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.329	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.349	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.912	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.193	0.002
predicted_H	0.885	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.068	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.026
predicted_R	0.657	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.348	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.903	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.1944	0.1667	0.0000	0.0278	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.60	29	-	109.000	32.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	20.000	5.000	26.000	0.2936	0.3304	0.4128	0.2936	0.0275	0.1193	0.0459	0.2385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7800
predicted_AVG	0.2484
predicted_BB	0.2210
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.2978
predicted_R	0.5110
predicted_RBI	0.3580
predicted_SLG	0.3486
predicted_SO	0.9350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.1500	0.1427	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7590	3.7800	3.7672	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2484	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1720	0.2210	0.1911	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9390	0.8541	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0750	0.0658	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2978	0.2979	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6900	0.5110	0.6203	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3580	0.3287	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3490	0.3486	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8970	0.9350	0.9118	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2722

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	5.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.200	0.394	0.467
predicted_BB	0.356	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.356	0.000	0.644	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.089	1.000	0.911	1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.332	0.200	0.418	0.550
predicted_R	0.644	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.644	1.000	0.356	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.790	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	1.000	1.444	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.592	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.456	0.200	0.211	0.467
predicted_SO	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.307	-
predicted_BB	0.356	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.644	-
predicted_RBI	0.790	-
predicted_SLG	0.592	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.011	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.000
predicted_BB	0.317	-0.039
predicted_H	1.168	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.034	-
predicted_HR	0.281	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000
predicted_R	0.663	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.824	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.592	0.000
predicted_SO	0.758	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.011	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.320	0.003
predicted_H	1.210	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.034	0.000
predicted_HR	0.291	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.002
predicted_R	0.703	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.873	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.585	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.751	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.073

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	0.4091	0.4091	1.0000	0.4091	0.1818	0.4546	0.0000	0.1364
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	14.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	0.3590	0.3864	0.7436	0.3590	0.1026	0.2821	0.0513	0.1538
season	0.60	45	-	180.000	49.000	12.000	7.000	25.000	29.000	16.000	35.000	0.2722	0.3317	0.4556	0.2722	0.0389	0.1389	0.0889	0.1944

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2510
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0260
predicted_AVG	0.3074
predicted_BB	0.2620
predicted_H	1.2370
predicted_HBP	0.0340
predicted_HR	0.2980
predicted_OBP	0.3512
predicted_R	0.6910
predicted_RBI	0.8720
predicted_SLG	0.5923
predicted_SO	0.7300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.2510	0.2604	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0260	4.0107	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3070	0.3074	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3560	0.2620	0.3173	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.2370	1.1682	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0340	0.0340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2980	0.2815	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3512	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6440	0.6910	0.6633	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7900	0.8720	0.8238	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5920	0.5923	0.5921	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.7300	0.7582	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 46

All-history rows before 20260517: 46

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2356

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.261	1.000	-0.261	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.783	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.783	3.000	-1.783	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.333	-0.236	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.826	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.826	1.000	1.174	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.891	1.000	-0.891	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.384	0.600	0.116	-0.100
predicted_R	0.826	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.826	2.000	-0.826	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.630	0.000	-0.630	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.479	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.511	0.667	-0.511	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.457	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.457	0.000	-0.457	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.783	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.826	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.826	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.479	-
predicted_SO	1.457	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.757	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.773	-0.053
predicted_H	0.836	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.121	-
predicted_HR	0.221	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.366	-0.000
predicted_R	0.791	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.491	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.479	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.396	-0.061

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.757	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.004
predicted_BB	0.780	0.007
predicted_H	0.866	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.121	0.000
predicted_HR	0.228	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.363	-0.003
predicted_R	0.838	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.004
predicted_SO	1.383	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.3889	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	7.000	11.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.5278	0.2500	0.0556	0.1111	0.1944	0.3056
season	0.60	46	-	174.000	41.000	12.000	12.000	29.000	38.000	38.000	67.000	0.2356	0.3843	0.5115	0.2356	0.0690	0.1667	0.2184	0.3851

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2660
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7200
predicted_AVG	0.2270
predicted_BB	0.6980
predicted_H	0.8450
predicted_HBP	0.1210
predicted_HR	0.2220
predicted_OBP	0.3658
predicted_R	0.7410
predicted_RBI	0.4920
predicted_SLG	0.4786
predicted_SO	1.3100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2610	0.2660	0.2631	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7830	3.7200	3.7569	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2270	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8260	0.6980	0.7730	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8450	0.8362	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1210	0.1210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2220	0.2208	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3658	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8260	0.7410	0.7908	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.4920	0.4908	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4790	0.4786	0.4788	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4570	1.3100	1.3961	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brady House (691781) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 36

All-history rows before 20260517: 36

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2041

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2040

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.083	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.083	3.000	-0.083	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.046	0.250
predicted_BB	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.000	-0.008	0.250
predicted_R	0.472	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.472	0.000	0.528	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	1.000	-0.583	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.367	0.000	-0.117	0.250
predicted_SO	1.250	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	1.000	0.750	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.083	-
predicted_AVG	0.181	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.231	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.348	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.033	-0.050
predicted_AVG	0.181	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	-0.017
predicted_H	0.707	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	-0.000
predicted_R	0.470	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.615	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	1.182	-0.068

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.033	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.001
predicted_BB	0.292	0.003
predicted_H	0.732	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.176	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.006
predicted_R	0.498	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.652	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.004
predicted_SO	1.171	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.083

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.0526	0.0952	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.2105	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.1795	0.2143	0.3846	0.1795	0.0513	0.1795	0.0513	0.2308
season	0.60	36	-	147.000	30.000	6.000	6.000	21.000	17.000	11.000	45.000	0.2041	0.2579	0.3673	0.2041	0.0408	0.1429	0.0748	0.3061

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9600
predicted_AVG	0.1808
predicted_BB	0.2650
predicted_H	0.7160
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_OBP	0.2307
predicted_R	0.4680
predicted_RBI	0.6230
predicted_SLG	0.3482
predicted_SO	1.0820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1460	0.1585	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0830	3.9600	4.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1810	0.1808	0.1809	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.2650	0.2895	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7160	0.7065	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1710	0.1704	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2310	0.2307	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.4680	0.4704	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6230	0.6152	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3480	0.3482	0.3481	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.0820	1.1822	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	691781
playerID	691781
playerName	Brady House
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Nasim Nuñez (683083) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 39

All-history rows before 20260517: 39

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1984

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.231	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.231	3.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	-0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.538	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.538	2.000	-0.538	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.641	0.000	-0.641	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.400	-0.315	-0.400
predicted_R	0.436	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.436	1.000	-0.436	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.487	1.000	-0.487	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.220	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SO	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	1.000	0.231	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.231	-
predicted_AVG	0.171	-
predicted_BB	0.538	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.436	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.220	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	0.005
predicted_3B	0.029	0.003
predicted_AB	3.198	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.171	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.577	0.038
predicted_H	0.497	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.421	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.255	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.783	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.198	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.582	0.005
predicted_H	0.515	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.013	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.020
predicted_R	0.446	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.201	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.776	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	0.0769	0.3333	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.3846	0.3077
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	8.000	0.1071	0.2778	0.1786	0.1071	0.0714	0.2500	0.2857
season	0.60	39	-	126.000	25.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	17.000	21.000	30.000	0.1984	0.3154	0.2222	0.1984	0.1111	0.1667	0.2381

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0380
predicted_3B	0.0330
predicted_AB	3.1490
predicted_AVG	0.1706
predicted_BB	0.6340
predicted_H	0.5370
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.3104
predicted_R	0.3980
predicted_RBI	0.2780
predicted_SLG	0.2197
predicted_SO	0.8040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0260	0.0380	0.0308	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0330	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2310	3.1490	3.1981	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1710	0.1706	0.1708	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5380	0.6340	0.5765	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.5370	0.4969	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0170	0.0128	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3104	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4360	0.3980	0.4208	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2780	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2200	0.2197	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.8040	0.7830	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	683083
playerID	683083
playerName	Nasim Nuñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jacob Young (696285) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 40

All-history rows before 20260517: 40

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2171

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.500	0.033	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.825	2.000	0.175	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.265	0.500	-0.015	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.475	3.000	-0.475	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.322	1.250	-0.072	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.226	0.025
predicted_H	0.771	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.127	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.000
predicted_R	0.547	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.464	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000
predicted_SO	0.648	-0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.228	0.002
predicted_H	0.799	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.047	0.000
predicted_HR	0.131	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.255	-0.024
predicted_R	0.580	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.492	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.338	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.642	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.0526
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	3.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1316	0.0790	0.0790
season	0.60	40	-	152.000	33.000	4.000	4.000	19.000	20.000	8.000	28.000	0.2171	0.2654	0.3224	0.2171	0.0263	0.1250	0.0526	0.1842

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0790
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8000
predicted_AVG	0.2191
predicted_BB	0.2630
predicted_H	0.8320
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.2785
predicted_R	0.6170
predicted_RBI	0.5000
predicted_SLG	0.3492
predicted_SO	0.5720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0790	0.0915	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.8000	3.8000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2191	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2630	0.2255	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8320	0.7712	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1370	0.1269	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2785	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6170	0.5473	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5000	0.4643	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3490	0.3492	0.3491	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.5720	0.6482	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	696285
playerID	696285
playerName	Jacob Young
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3025

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.4440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	2.000	-0.227	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.682	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.682	5.000	-0.682	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.600	-0.302	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.114	3.000	-1.114	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.391	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.395	0.600	-0.145	-0.350
predicted_R	0.636	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.636	2.000	-0.636	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.841	1.000	-0.841	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.544	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.543	1.000	-0.543	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.818	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.818	0.000	-0.818	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.682	-
predicted_AVG	0.318	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.391	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.544	-
predicted_SO	0.818	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.288	0.061
predicted_3B	0.026	0.003
predicted_AB	3.741	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.000
predicted_BB	0.432	-0.023
predicted_H	1.142	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.078	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.391	0.000
predicted_R	0.670	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.651	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.544	0.000
predicted_SO	0.845	0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.288	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.741	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.316	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.436	0.004
predicted_H	1.183	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.078	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.388	-0.004
predicted_R	0.710	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.519	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.837	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.316 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.4000	0.4545	0.6000	0.4000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	14.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	0.3415	0.3864	0.6098	0.3415	0.0244	0.2195	0.0732	0.2439
season	0.60	44	-	162.000	49.000	10.000	1.000	9.000	37.000	28.000	20.000	36.000	0.3025	0.3947	0.5432	0.3025	0.0556	0.2284	0.1235	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3760
predicted_3B	0.0300
predicted_AB	3.8250
predicted_AVG	0.3181
predicted_BB	0.3980
predicted_H	1.2170
predicted_HBP	0.0780
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.3914
predicted_R	0.7200
predicted_RBI	0.6950
predicted_SLG	0.5443
predicted_SO	0.8840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.3760	0.2881	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0300	0.0259	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6820	3.8250	3.7406	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3180	0.3181	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.3980	0.4316	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.2170	1.1421	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0780	0.0780	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1430	0.1353	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3910	0.3914	0.3912	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.7200	0.6704	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6950	0.6508	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5440	0.5443	0.5441	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8180	0.8840	0.8451	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 11

All-history rows before 20260517: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.909	1.000	0.091	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.091	0.000	1.909	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.909	1.000	2.091	2.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.809	0.100	3.191	3.900
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	1.091	1.000	4.909	5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	1.9286	0.0000	0.8571	1.0714	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	0.000	8.000	8.000	11.000	0.000	0.0000	1.6000	0.0000	0.8000	0.8000	1.1000	0.0000
season	0.20	17	18.100	4.000	18.000	14.000	18.000	1.000	1.9636	1.7455	0.2182	0.9818	0.7636	0.9818	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0040
predicted_ER	0.9550
predicted_ERA	2.5937
predicted_H	3.0040
predicted_HR	0.2650
predicted_IP	3.1000
predicted_SO	3.4510
predicted_WHIP	1.5106

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0040	1.4071	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.9550	1.5763	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5937	2.5937	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	3.0040	1.8125	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2650	0.1074	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	3.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	3.4510	4.9665	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5106	1.5106	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	6
HR	0
BF	16
Pitches	63

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.96
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 13

All-history rows before 20260517: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.938	2.200	-0.838	-1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.615	3.000	-0.615	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	1.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.9310	0.2069	0.8276	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	20.200	6.000	16.000	4.000	17.000	2.000	2.6129	0.9677	0.2903	0.7742	0.1935	0.8226	0.0968
season	0.20	13	28.000	10.000	26.000	6.000	21.000	3.000	3.2143	1.1429	0.3571	0.9286	0.2143	0.7500	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4830
predicted_ER	0.5670
predicted_ERA	3.0273
predicted_H	1.5250
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4800
predicted_WHIP	1.1918

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4830	0.2173	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5670	0.2551	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0273	3.0273	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.5250	1.7863	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1530	0.0688	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4800	1.2160	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1918	1.1918	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	36
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.056	0.000	-0.056	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.744	0.200	0.256	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	1.2500	0.7500	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	11.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	5.0000	1.5556	0.5556	1.2222	0.3333	1.0000	0.0000
season	0.20	18	16.200	8.000	19.000	6.000	18.000	1.000	4.3200	1.5000	0.4800	1.1400	0.3600	1.0800	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_ER	0.5410
predicted_ERA	5.1784
predicted_H	0.9870
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9200
predicted_WHIP	1.4871

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4110	0.1626	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5410	0.2141	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1784	5.1784	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9870	0.9949	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0780	0.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9200	0.3641	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4871	1.4871	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.32
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Paxton Schultz (687606) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 12

All-history rows before 20260517: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	1.667	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.167	0.000	-1.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.292	1.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	2.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9000	0.0000	0.4500	0.4500	1.2000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	14.200	4.000	12.000	3.000	16.000	2.000	2.4545	1.0227	0.2727	0.8182	0.2046	1.0909	0.1364
season	0.20	12	16.200	4.000	14.000	4.000	18.000	2.000	2.1600	1.0800	0.2400	0.8400	0.2400	1.0800	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4030
predicted_ER	0.3820
predicted_ERA	3.0389
predicted_H	0.9360
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1640
predicted_WHIP	1.1822

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4030	1.3680	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3820	0.1512	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0389	3.0389	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9360	0.3704	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1210	0.0479	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1640	1.0649	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1822	1.1822	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.16
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	687606
playerID	687606
playerName	Paxton Schultz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.591	1.000	0.409	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.773	1.000	-0.773	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.759	0.200	0.441	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.682	0.000	1.318	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	2.1000	0.0000	0.9000	1.2000	0.9000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	7.000	0.000	2.0000	1.4444	0.2222	0.7778	0.6667	0.7778	0.0000
season	0.20	22	20.200	7.000	17.000	13.000	15.000	3.000	3.0484	1.4516	0.3387	0.8226	0.6290	0.7258	0.1452

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4600
predicted_ER	0.2410
predicted_ERA	2.8948
predicted_H	0.6700
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6710
predicted_WHIP	1.5079

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4600	0.7743	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2410	0.1007	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8948	2.8948	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6700	0.2800	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0630	0.0263	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6710	1.4446	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5079	1.5079	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.05
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

20260517_BOS@ATL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.53782, "home_win_probability": 0.53782, "away_win_probability": 0.46218000000000004, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 2 - 3 ATL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 2 - 3 ATL", "confidence": 0.53782, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "BOS 2 - 3 ATL", "winner": "ATL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 1 - 4 ATL", "winner": "ATL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	BOS 2 - 3 ATL	ATL	0.538	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	BOS 1 - 4 ATL	ATL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away BOS	5-5	0.500	3.10	2.60	5	1W	cold	strong
Home ATL	6-4	0.600	3.30	2.20	11	1L	cold	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away BOS	19-26	0.422	-13	-0.289	True
Home ATL	31-15	0.674	91	1.978	True
Signal	-	-	2.267	2.645	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	BOS @ ATL	3 - 2	BOS	1	close
2026-05-15	BOS @ ATL	2 - 3	ATL	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target BOS	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Game target ATL	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized BOS	34	9	0	0	0	0	8
Player finalized ATL	33	9	5	0	3	0	9
Player model fractional BOS	33.12	7.03	3.27	0.78	2.78	2.59	7.82
Player model fractional ATL	32.23	8.26	5.36	1.34	4.16	2.29	7.28
Simulation box BOS	36	9	1	0	1	1	8
Simulation box ATL	35	11	4	1	4	0	10

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away BOS	Starter	Brayan Bello	4.10	4	5	9	0	5.67	1.54	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Aroldis Chapman	1	0	0	0	0	2.63	1.16	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Justin Slaten	1	0	1	0	0	3.39	1.20	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Tyler Samaniego	1	0	2	2	0	3.64	1.22	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Garrett Whitlock	0.20	0	2	0	0	3.86	1.13	True
Home ATL	Starter	Grant Holmes	5.10	1	3	7	0	4.86	1.38	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Dylan Lee	1	0	2	2	0	2.49	0.89	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Raisel Iglesias	1	0	2	0	0	2.72	1.14	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Robert Suarez	1.20	0	1	0	1	2.41	1.12	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: BOS

Nick Sogard (686765) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 0

All-history rows before 20260517: 0

System season_avg: 0.2439

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2439

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.007	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.540	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.374	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.806	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.098	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.392	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.862	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.007	-
predicted_AB	3.540	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.374	-
predicted_H	0.806	-
predicted_HR	0.098	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.392	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	0.862	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	0.005
predicted_3B	0.008	0.001
predicted_AB	3.581	0.041
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.003
predicted_BB	0.359	-0.015
predicted_H	0.825	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.001
predicted_R	0.446	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.404	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.006
predicted_SO	0.861	-0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.008	0.000
predicted_AB	3.581	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.350	-0.010
predicted_H	0.758	-0.067
predicted_HBP	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.092	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.021
predicted_R	0.385	-0.061
predicted_RBI	0.349	-0.055
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.884	0.023

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.60	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7990
predicted_AVG	0.2439
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	0.9270
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.3051
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.3949
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1800	0.1522	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0070	0.0140	0.0081	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5400	3.7990	3.5808	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2439	0.2305	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3740	0.2820	0.3595	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8060	0.9270	0.8251	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0980	0.1220	0.1018	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3051	0.3025	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.4900	0.4462	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3920	0.4710	0.4044	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3949	0.3621	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8620	0.8540	0.8607	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 38

All-history rows before 20260517: 38

System season_avg: 0.1780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1783

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	1.000	-0.184	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.132	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.132	4.000	0.868	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.178	0.250	0.022	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	1.000	0.263	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.241	0.250	-0.041	-0.050
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.299	0.500	-0.099	-0.300
predicted_SO	1.132	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.132	1.000	1.868	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.132	-
predicted_AVG	0.153	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.222	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.254	-
predicted_SO	1.132	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.100	-0.032
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.283	-0.006
predicted_H	0.614	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.083	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.000
predicted_R	0.437	-0.063
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.145	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.100	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.138	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.276	-0.008
predicted_H	0.564	-0.050
predicted_HBP	0.083	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.192	-0.030
predicted_R	0.377	-0.060
predicted_RBI	0.268	-0.043
predicted_SLG	0.230	-0.024
predicted_SO	1.175	0.031

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.136 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.132

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	0.0500	0.1364	0.1000	0.0500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	0.0976	0.1778	0.1463	0.0976	0.0000	0.0000	0.0732	0.3171
season	0.60	38	-	157.000	28.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	19.000	11.000	43.000	0.1783	0.2412	0.2994	0.1783	0.0255	0.1147	0.0701	0.2739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0540
predicted_AVG	0.1526
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_H	0.6190
predicted_HBP	0.0830
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.2222
predicted_R	0.3450
predicted_RBI	0.3120
predicted_SLG	0.2538
predicted_SO	1.1630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1890	0.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1320	4.0540	4.1003	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1530	0.1526	0.1528	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.2750	0.2833	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6190	0.6137	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0830	0.0830	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0720	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3450	0.4371	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3120	0.3108	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2540	0.2538	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1320	1.1630	1.1446	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.178

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Willson Contreras (575929) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2517

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.595	4.000	-0.595	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.500	0.082	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.476	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.476	0.000	0.524	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	2.000	0.095	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.500	0.141	0.000
predicted_R	0.476	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.476	1.000	0.524	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.595	2.000	0.405	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.464	1.250	-0.130	-0.917
predicted_SO	1.214	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.214	1.000	-0.214	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.595	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.476	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.476	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.436	-
predicted_SO	1.214	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.615	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.469	-0.007
predicted_H	0.798	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.091	-
predicted_HR	0.187	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.000
predicted_R	0.445	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.487	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.436	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.185	-0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.615	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.456	-0.013
predicted_H	0.733	-0.065
predicted_HBP	0.091	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	-0.017
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.034
predicted_R	0.384	-0.061
predicted_RBI	0.420	-0.067
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.055
predicted_SO	1.217	0.032

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.3889	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	13.000	0.2162	0.3182	0.4324	0.2162	0.0541	0.1081	0.1622	0.3513
season	0.60	42	-	151.000	38.000	5.000	9.000	25.000	20.000	20.000	51.000	0.2517	0.3591	0.4636	0.2517	0.0596	0.1656	0.1325	0.3377

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6430
predicted_AVG	0.2299
predicted_BB	0.4580
predicted_H	0.8380
predicted_HBP	0.0910
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_OBP	0.3257
predicted_R	0.4010
predicted_RBI	0.5120
predicted_SLG	0.4357
predicted_SO	1.1430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1190	0.1550	0.1337	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5950	3.6430	3.6146	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2299	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4760	0.4580	0.4686	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8380	0.7978	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0910	0.0910	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1970	0.1869	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3257	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4760	0.4010	0.4454	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5120	0.4872	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4360	0.4357	0.4359	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2140	1.1430	1.1850	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	575929
playerID	575929
playerName	Willson Contreras
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Carlos Narváez (665966) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 27

All-history rows before 20260517: 27

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2209

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.185	1.000	-0.185	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.185	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.185	3.000	0.815	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.333	0.279	0.167
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.704	1.000	1.296	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.500	0.213	0.000
predicted_R	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	1.000	-0.370	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.349	0.667	0.151	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.963	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.963	2.000	0.037	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.185	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	0.963	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.191	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.252	0.030
predicted_H	0.628	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.148	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.392	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.143	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000
predicted_SO	0.944	-0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.191	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	-0.040
predicted_BB	0.245	-0.007
predicted_H	0.577	-0.051
predicted_HBP	0.148	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.239	-0.076
predicted_R	0.338	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.123	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.303	-0.067
predicted_SO	0.970	0.025

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2308	0.4118	0.3846	0.2308	0.0000	0.0000	0.1538	0.3077
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	9.000	0.1724	0.3143	0.3793	0.1724	0.0345	0.0345	0.1379	0.3103
season	0.60	27	-	86.000	19.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	6.000	26.000	0.2209	0.2872	0.3488	0.2209	0.0233	0.0349	0.0698	0.3023

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2460
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2020
predicted_AVG	0.2206
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_H	0.7060
predicted_HBP	0.1480
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.3145
predicted_R	0.4280
predicted_RBI	0.1640
predicted_SLG	0.3700
predicted_SO	0.9140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1850	0.2460	0.2081	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1850	3.2020	3.1914	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2206	0.2208	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.3010	0.2520	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7060	0.6278	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1480	0.1480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0750	0.0657	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3145	0.3148	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.4280	0.3920	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1640	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3700	0.3700	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9630	0.9140	0.9444	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	665966
playerID	665966
playerName	Carlos Narváez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Andruw Monasterio (655316) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 15

All-history rows before 20260517: 15

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2241

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	0.000	-0.400
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.867	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.867	4.000	0.133
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.000	-0.224
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.133	0.000	-0.133
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	0.000	-0.867
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	-0.286
predicted_R	0.533	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.533	0.000	-0.533
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	0.000	-0.467
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.000	-0.379
predicted_SO	0.733	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.733	0.000	-0.733

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.867	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.388	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.877	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.306	-0.027
predicted_H	0.826	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.000
predicted_R	0.534	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000
predicted_SO	0.753	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.388	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.877	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.037
predicted_BB	0.298	-0.008
predicted_H	0.759	-0.067
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.067	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.253	-0.030
predicted_R	0.461	-0.073
predicted_RBI	0.356	-0.057
predicted_SLG	0.349	-0.043
predicted_SO	0.773	0.020

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.867

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.3810	0.2381	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	0.2308	0.2683	0.4359	0.2308	0.0256	0.1538	0.0513	0.1538
season	0.60	15	-	58.000	13.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	5.000	11.000	0.2241	0.2857	0.3793	0.2241	0.0172	0.1207	0.0862	0.1897

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3660
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.8940
predicted_AVG	0.2333
predicted_BB	0.2570
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.2832
predicted_R	0.5370
predicted_RBI	0.4530
predicted_SLG	0.3922
predicted_SO	0.7890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.3660	0.3879	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8670	3.8940	3.8766	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2333	0.2331	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2570	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9090	0.8259	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0810	0.0739	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2832	0.2831	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.5370	0.5344	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4530	0.4124	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3922	0.3921	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	0.7890	0.7529	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	655316
playerID	655316
playerName	Andruw Monasterio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BOS
teamID	4

Marcelo Mayer (691785) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 34

All-history rows before 20260517: 34

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.294	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.294	4.000	0.706
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.000	-0.214
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.706	0.000	-0.706
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.000	-0.288
predicted_R	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.235	0.000	-0.235
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.265	0.000	-0.265
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.000	-0.312
predicted_SO	0.676	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.676	1.000	0.324

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.294	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.285	-
predicted_R	0.235	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	0.676	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.358	0.064
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.301	0.007
predicted_H	0.657	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.088	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000
predicted_R	0.255	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000
predicted_SO	0.698	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.358	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.293	-0.008
predicted_H	0.604	-0.053
predicted_HBP	0.051	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.245	-0.040
predicted_R	0.220	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.216	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.290	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.717	0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.1944	0.2750	0.2778	0.1944	0.0278	0.0556	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.60	34	-	112.000	24.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	10.000	23.000	0.2143	0.2880	0.3125	0.2143	0.0179	0.0804	0.0893	0.2054

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4580
predicted_AVG	0.2107
predicted_BB	0.3110
predicted_H	0.7290
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.2852
predicted_R	0.2850
predicted_RBI	0.2810
predicted_SLG	0.3294
predicted_SO	0.7320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1060	0.1309	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2940	3.4580	3.3585	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2107	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.3110	0.3007	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7290	0.6568	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1000	0.0879	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2850	0.2852	0.2851	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2350	0.2850	0.2547	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2810	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3294	0.3292	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6760	0.7320	0.6980	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	691785
playerID	691785
playerName	Marcelo Mayer
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.3070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3072

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.159	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.159	1.000	0.841	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	0.977	1.000
predicted_AB	3.773	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.773	4.000	0.227	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.321	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.307	0.500	0.193	0.000
predicted_BB	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.159	2.000	0.841	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.500	0.120	0.000
predicted_R	0.477	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.477	1.000	-0.477	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.470	0.750	0.780	0.500
predicted_SO	0.795	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.795	1.000	0.205	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.773	-
predicted_AVG	0.321	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.477	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	0.795	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.792	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.321	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.403	-0.052
predicted_H	1.180	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.121	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.000
predicted_R	0.474	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.466	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.786	-0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.792	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	-0.035
predicted_BB	0.393	-0.011
predicted_H	1.085	-0.096
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.020
predicted_R	0.409	-0.065
predicted_RBI	0.328	-0.052
predicted_SLG	0.425	-0.041
predicted_SO	0.807	0.021

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.286 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4500	0.4000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.3421	0.3810	0.5263	0.3421	0.0526	0.1053	0.0790	0.2105
season	0.60	44	-	166.000	51.000	7.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	21.000	20.000	35.000	0.3072	0.3797	0.4699	0.3072	0.0361	0.1145	0.1205	0.2108

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8200
predicted_AVG	0.3205
predicted_BB	0.3290
predicted_H	1.2240
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.3731
predicted_R	0.4700
predicted_RBI	0.3940
predicted_SLG	0.4658
predicted_SO	0.7730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1590	0.1590	0.1590	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7730	3.8200	3.7923	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3210	0.3205	0.3208	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.3290	0.4034	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.2240	1.1803	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1230	0.1212	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3731	0.3730	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4770	0.4700	0.4741	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3940	0.3798	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4658	0.4659	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7950	0.7730	0.7860	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	1
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.307

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Mickey Gasper (681508) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 5

All-history rows before 20260517: 5

System season_avg: 0.4000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.400	0.250	-0.400	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	1.180	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.600	1.000	-1.600	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.429	0.250	-0.429	-0.250
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.438	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.250	-0.500	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.438	-
predicted_SO	0.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.363	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.967	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000
predicted_BB	0.047	0.047
predicted_H	1.184	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.099	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.000
predicted_R	0.415	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.441	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.438	0.000
predicted_SO	0.309	0.109

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.363	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.967	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.046	-0.001
predicted_H	1.088	-0.096
predicted_HBP	0.099	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.073
predicted_R	0.358	-0.057
predicted_RBI	0.380	-0.060
predicted_SLG	0.416	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.318	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.4000	0.4286	0.5000	0.4000	0.1000	0.0500
last_10	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.4000	0.4286	0.5000	0.4000	0.1000	0.0500
season	0.60	5	-	20.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.4000	0.4286	0.5000	0.4000	0.1000	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2680
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.8820
predicted_AVG	0.3082
predicted_BB	0.1700
predicted_H	1.1960
predicted_HBP	0.0990
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.3560
predicted_R	0.4540
predicted_RBI	0.4430
predicted_SLG	0.4382
predicted_SO	0.5930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.2680	0.3633	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8820	3.9672	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3082	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1700	0.0473	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.1960	1.1844	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0990	0.0990	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0730	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3560	0.3560	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4540	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4430	0.4408	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4380	0.4382	0.4381	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2000	0.5930	0.3092	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.4

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	681508
playerID	681508
playerName	Mickey Gasper
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Ceddanne Rafaela (678882) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 39

All-history rows before 20260517: 39

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2766

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1660

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	1.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.615	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.615	4.000	0.385	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.250	-0.027	0.000
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.250	-0.096	0.000
predicted_R	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.411	0.500	-0.161	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.923	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	1.000	-0.923	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	3.615	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.410	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.419	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.022
predicted_3B	0.042	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.638	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.237	0.006
predicted_H	0.942	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.134	-
predicted_HR	0.084	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.342	-0.000
predicted_R	0.386	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.389	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.000
predicted_SO	0.936	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.638	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.035
predicted_BB	0.230	-0.006
predicted_H	0.866	-0.076
predicted_HBP	0.134	0.000
predicted_HR	0.077	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.059
predicted_R	0.333	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.336	-0.053
predicted_SLG	0.372	-0.047
predicted_SO	0.961	0.025

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3333	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	13.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.3421	0.4048	0.5526	0.3421	0.0526	0.1842	0.0790	0.2368
season	0.60	39	-	141.000	39.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	9.000	36.000	0.2766	0.3462	0.4113	0.2766	0.0213	0.1064	0.0638	0.2553

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2080
predicted_3B	0.0280
predicted_AB	3.6730
predicted_AVG	0.2732
predicted_BB	0.2450
predicted_H	1.0040
predicted_HBP	0.1340
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_OBP	0.3417
predicted_R	0.3510
predicted_RBI	0.4180
predicted_SLG	0.4193
predicted_SO	0.9560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.2080	0.1758	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0280	0.0417	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6150	3.6730	3.6384	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2732	0.2731	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2450	0.2366	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0040	0.9419	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1340	0.1340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0910	0.0844	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3417	0.3419	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4100	0.3510	0.3862	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4180	0.3893	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4190	0.4193	0.4191	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.9560	0.9363	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	678882
playerID	678882
playerName	Ceddanne Rafaela
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Brayan Bello (678394) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 8

All-history rows before 20260517: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.125	1.000	-2.125	-1.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	3.500	1.000	0.500	3.000
predicted_H	9.000	9.000	9.000	Pitching_H	6.375	4.000	2.625	5.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.612	6.100	-0.513	-2.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	3.625	5.000	1.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.100	18.000	32.000	8.000	20.000	6.000	6.6575	1.6438	0.7397	1.3151	0.3288	0.8219	0.2466
last_10	0.35	8	39.000	28.000	51.000	17.000	29.000	8.000	6.4615	1.7436	0.7179	1.3077	0.4359	0.7436	0.2051
season	0.20	8	39.000	28.000	51.000	17.000	29.000	8.000	6.4615	1.7436	0.7179	1.3077	0.4359	0.7436	0.2051

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7500
predicted_ER	2.9900
predicted_ERA	5.6722
predicted_H	5.5430
predicted_HR	0.9180
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.0680
predicted_WHIP	1.5375

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.7500	0.8531	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.9900	2.4826	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6722	5.6722	form_only
predicted_H	9.0000	5.5430	7.3147	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9180	0.4475	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.2000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.0680	4.5456	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5375	1.5375	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	9
R	4
ER	4
BB	0
SO	5
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	90

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.46
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.1
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	678394
playerID	678394
playerName	Brayan Bello
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 16

All-history rows before 20260517: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.438	2.000	-0.438	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.312	0.000	-1.312	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.0000	0.8000	1.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	0.000	5.000	5.000	15.000	0.0000	1.0345	0.0000	0.5172	0.5172	1.5517
season	0.20	16	15.200	1.000	7.000	7.000	21.000	0.5745	0.8936	0.0638	0.4468	0.4468	1.3404

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4750
predicted_ER	0.2920
predicted_ERA	2.6305
predicted_H	0.6820
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1760
predicted_WHIP	1.1572

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4750	0.1850	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2920	0.1137	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6305	2.6305	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6820	0.2657	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0800	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1760	0.4581	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1572	1.1572	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Justin Slaten (686580) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 7

All-history rows before 20260517: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.757	0.200	0.243	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.6429	0.6429	0.0000	0.8571
last_10	0.35	7	6.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	1.0000	0.6667	0.3333	1.1667
season	0.20	7	6.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	1.0000	0.6667	0.3333	1.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_ER	0.3760
predicted_ERA	3.3882
predicted_H	0.8820
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9500
predicted_WHIP	1.2034

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3210	0.0991	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3760	0.1161	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3882	3.3882	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8820	0.2724	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1050	0.0324	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9500	0.9846	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2034	1.2034	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	686580
playerID	686580
playerName	Justin Slaten
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Tyler Samaniego (701719) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 15

All-history rows before 20260517: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.733	1.000	1.267	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.773	0.000	0.227	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.800	0.000	1.200	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.1538	0.9231	0.4615	0.4615	0.4615	0.9231	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	9.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.9000	0.3000	0.5000	0.1000
season	0.20	14	15.100	2.000	10.000	7.000	12.000	1.000	1.1739	1.1087	0.1304	0.6522	0.4565	0.7826	0.0652

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3880
predicted_ER	0.4050
predicted_ERA	3.6424
predicted_H	0.8300
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8760
predicted_WHIP	1.2185

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3880	0.1503	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4050	1.3821	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6424	3.6424	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8300	1.5468	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1380	0.6661	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8760	1.5646	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2185	1.2185	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.17
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	701719
playerID	701719
playerName	Tyler Samaniego
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 17

All-history rows before 20260517: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.765	0.000	-0.765	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	-0.806	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.294	2.000	0.706	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.000	3.3750	0.7500	0.3750	0.5625	0.1875	1.6875	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	4.000	8.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	3.4839	0.8710	0.3871	0.7742	0.0968	1.0645	0.0968
season	0.20	17	17.100	6.000	13.000	6.000	22.000	2.000	3.1154	1.0962	0.3462	0.7500	0.3462	1.2692	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2410
predicted_ER	0.3440
predicted_ERA	3.8554
predicted_H	0.6660
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9070
predicted_WHIP	1.1312

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2410	0.0963	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3440	0.1375	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8554	3.8554	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6660	0.2662	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0800	0.0320	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9070	1.5631	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1312	1.1312	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.12
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Home Team: ATL

Dominic Smith (642086) · BATTER · DH · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

System season_avg: 0.3780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3784

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.524	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.524	4.000	0.476	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.378	0.250	0.122	0.250
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.333	1.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.405	0.250	0.095	0.250
predicted_R	0.619	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.619	0.000	0.381	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.810	0.000	-0.810	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.581	0.250	-0.081	0.250
predicted_SO	0.429	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.524	-
predicted_AVG	0.333	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.371	-
predicted_R	0.619	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.486	-
predicted_SO	0.429	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	0.004
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.587	0.063
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.000
predicted_BB	0.158	0.015
predicted_H	1.105	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.118	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.000
predicted_R	0.595	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.471	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.486	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.478	0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.587	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.321	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.162	0.004
predicted_H	1.152	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.044	0.000
predicted_HR	0.124	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.351	-0.020
predicted_R	0.642	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.508	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.467	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.466	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.321 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.4211	0.3684	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3659	0.4359	0.3333	0.0256	0.0513	0.0256	0.1026
season	0.60	21	-	74.000	28.000	3.000	4.000	17.000	13.000	3.000	9.000	0.3784	0.4051	0.5811	0.3784	0.0541	0.2297	0.0405	0.1216

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6940
predicted_AVG	0.3334
predicted_BB	0.1830
predicted_H	1.2320
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_OBP	0.3712
predicted_R	0.5530
predicted_RBI	0.5230
predicted_SLG	0.4856
predicted_SO	0.5630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1550	0.1474	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5240	3.6940	3.5868	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3330	0.3334	0.3331	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.1830	0.1578	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.2320	1.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1330	0.1185	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3710	0.3712	0.3711	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6190	0.5530	0.5946	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5230	0.4707	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4860	0.4856	0.4859	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4290	0.5630	0.4785	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.378

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	642086
playerID	642086
playerName	Dominic Smith
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mike Yastrzemski (573262) · BATTER · RF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 30

All-history rows before 20260517: 30

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2115

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.467	2.000	0.533	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.038	0.250
predicted_BB	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	1.000	-0.267	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.733	0.000	0.267	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.274	0.333	-0.024	-0.083
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.279	0.000	-0.029	0.250
predicted_SO	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.467	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.443	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.253	-0.014
predicted_H	0.721	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.000
predicted_R	0.402	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.367	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000
predicted_SO	0.879	-0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.443	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.260	0.007
predicted_H	0.752	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.089	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.016
predicted_R	0.434	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.856	-0.023

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.5000	0.2857	0.0714	0.2143	0.0714	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2424	0.2647	0.3636	0.2424	0.0303	0.1212	0.0303	0.2121
season	0.60	30	-	104.000	22.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	12.000	8.000	27.000	0.2115	0.2743	0.2788	0.2115	0.0096	0.0865	0.0769	0.2596

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4050
predicted_AVG	0.2349
predicted_BB	0.2320
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_OBP	0.2886
predicted_R	0.4040
predicted_RBI	0.4090
predicted_SLG	0.3515
predicted_SO	0.8470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1120	0.1248	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4670	3.4050	3.4429	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2349	0.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.2320	0.2534	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8000	0.7205	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0930	0.0851	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2886	0.2888	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4040	0.4016	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4090	0.3668	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3515	0.3512	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.8470	0.8794	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	573262
playerID	573262
playerName	Mike Yastrzemski
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

José Azócar (640492) · BATTER · LF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 4

All-history rows before 20260517: 4

System season_avg: 0.4440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4444

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.6000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.556	0.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.250	3.000	1.750	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.444	0.667	-0.194	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.444	0.667	-0.194	-0.417
predicted_R	0.278	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	1.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.458	0.250	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.667	1.333	-0.417	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.556	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.556	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.278	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.458	-
predicted_SO	0.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.499	-0.057
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.712	0.212
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.044	0.044
predicted_H	0.659	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.058	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000
predicted_R	0.312	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.213	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.458	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.604	0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.499	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.712	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.037
predicted_BB	0.045	0.001
predicted_H	0.687	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.071
predicted_R	0.337	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.506	0.048
predicted_SO	0.589	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	9.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.4444	0.4444	0.6667	0.4444	0.2222
last_10	0.20	4	-	9.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.4444	0.4444	0.6667	0.4444	0.2222
season	0.60	4	-	9.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.4444	0.4444	0.6667	0.4444	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3020
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.4410
predicted_AVG	0.2902
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_H	0.9990
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.3373
predicted_R	0.4300
predicted_RBI	0.3280
predicted_SLG	0.4576
predicted_SO	0.7710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5560	0.3020	0.4988	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.4410	2.7117	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2902	0.2900	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1970	0.0443	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.9990	0.6588	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0850	0.0579	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3373	0.3371	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2780	0.4300	0.3122	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.3280	0.2133	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4580	0.4576	0.4579	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5560	0.7710	0.6044	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.444

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	640492
playerID	640492
playerName	José Azócar
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ozzie Albies (645277) · BATTER · 2B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 46

All-history rows before 20260517: 46

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2768

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.848	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.848	4.000	0.152	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.000	-0.027	0.250
predicted_BB	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.065	0.000	-0.065	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.332	0.000	-0.082	0.250
predicted_R	0.652	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.652	0.000	-0.652	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.458	0.000	-0.208	0.250
predicted_SO	0.522	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.522	0.000	0.478	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.848	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.304	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.652	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.304	-
predicted_SO	0.522	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.810	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.000
predicted_BB	0.288	-0.016
predicted_H	0.706	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.082	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.257	-0.000
predicted_R	0.561	-0.091
predicted_RBI	0.365	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.000
predicted_SO	0.536	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.003
predicted_BB	0.295	0.007
predicted_H	0.736	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.082	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.006
predicted_R	0.606	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.394	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.012
predicted_SO	0.522	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.848

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.0789	0.1463	0.0789	0.0790	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1579
season	0.60	46	-	177.000	49.000	8.000	8.000	25.000	30.000	14.000	24.000	0.2768	0.3316	0.4576	0.2768	0.0452	0.1412	0.0791	0.1356

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7550
predicted_AVG	0.1901
predicted_BB	0.2640
predicted_H	0.7140
predicted_HBP	0.0820
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_OBP	0.2567
predicted_R	0.4300
predicted_RBI	0.3720
predicted_SLG	0.3042
predicted_SO	0.5560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1120	0.1485	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8480	3.7550	3.8098	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1901	0.1900	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3040	0.2640	0.2876	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7140	0.7058	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0820	0.0820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1040	0.1016	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2567	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6520	0.4300	0.5607	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3720	0.3649	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3040	0.3042	0.3041	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5220	0.5560	0.5360	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	645277
playerID	645277
playerName	Ozzie Albies
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Austin Riley (663586) · BATTER · 3B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2164

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.5220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.311	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.311	0.000	-0.311	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.822	0.000	-0.822	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	-0.036	0.250
predicted_R	0.489	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.489	0.000	-0.489	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.363	0.000	-0.363	0.000
predicted_SO	1.133	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.133	1.000	-0.133	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.311	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.489	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	1.133	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.779	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.272	-0.039
predicted_H	0.788	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.092	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.454	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.415	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000
predicted_SO	1.113	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.779	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.279	0.007
predicted_H	0.822	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.092	0.000
predicted_HR	0.139	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.008
predicted_R	0.491	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.448	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.001
predicted_SO	1.084	-0.029

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.556)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	12.000	0.2162	0.2564	0.3243	0.2162	0.0270	0.0811	0.0270	0.3243
season	0.60	45	-	171.000	37.000	7.000	6.000	25.000	22.000	14.000	51.000	0.2164	0.2857	0.3626	0.2164	0.0351	0.1462	0.0819	0.2983

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1210
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7480
predicted_AVG	0.2211
predicted_BB	0.2150
predicted_H	0.8290
predicted_HBP	0.0920
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.2794
predicted_R	0.4040
predicted_RBI	0.4360
predicted_SLG	0.3650
predicted_SO	1.0840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1210	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.7480	3.7787	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2211	0.2210	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3110	0.2150	0.2716	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8290	0.7883	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0920	0.0920	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1380	0.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2794	0.2792	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4890	0.4040	0.4542	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4360	0.4148	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3650	0.3650	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1330	1.0840	1.1129	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663586
playerID	663586
playerName	Austin Riley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Matt Olson (621566) · BATTER · 1B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 46

All-history rows before 20260517: 46

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2809

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.870	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.870	4.000	0.130	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.000	-0.031	0.250
predicted_BB	0.478	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.478	0.000	-0.478	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.087	0.000	-0.087	1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.000	-0.106	0.250
predicted_R	0.783	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.783	0.000	-0.783	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.804	0.000	-0.804	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.457	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.601	0.000	-0.351	0.250
predicted_SO	1.087	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.087	0.000	-0.087	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.326	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.870	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.478	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.783	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.457	-
predicted_SO	1.087	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.271	-0.055
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.856	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.413	-0.065
predicted_H	0.906	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.204	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.000
predicted_R	0.675	-0.108
predicted_RBI	0.583	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.457	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.105	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.271	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.856	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.003
predicted_BB	0.424	0.011
predicted_H	0.946	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.213	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.023
predicted_R	0.730	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.629	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.482	0.025
predicted_SO	1.076	-0.029

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.870

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	14.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1316	0.0526	0.3684
season	0.60	46	-	178.000	50.000	15.000	14.000	37.000	36.000	22.000	50.000	0.2809	0.3564	0.6011	0.2809	0.0786	0.2079	0.1236	0.2809

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1920
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8360
predicted_AVG	0.2424
predicted_BB	0.3200
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2090
predicted_OBP	0.2967
predicted_R	0.5220
predicted_RBI	0.6010
predicted_SLG	0.4567
predicted_SO	1.1310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3260	0.1920	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8700	3.8360	3.8560	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2424	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4780	0.3200	0.4129	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9300	0.9065	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2090	0.2037	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2967	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7830	0.5220	0.6754	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6010	0.5828	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4570	0.4567	0.4569	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0870	1.1310	1.1051	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	621566
playerID	621566
playerName	Matt Olson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Jorge Mateo (622761) · BATTER · SS · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 16

All-history rows before 20260517: 16

System season_avg: 0.3140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3137

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.188	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.188	3.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.750	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.314	0.667	0.436	0.083
predicted_BB	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	1.000	-0.188	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	0.938	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.750	0.398	0.000
predicted_R	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	1.000	1.750	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.424	1.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.667	1.088	0.833
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.188	-
predicted_AVG	0.296	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.424	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.291	0.103
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	0.012
predicted_H	0.887	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.088	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.342	-0.000
predicted_R	0.722	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.319	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.000
predicted_SO	0.977	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.291	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.205	0.005
predicted_H	0.925	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.092	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.019
predicted_R	0.780	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.345	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.404	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.951	-0.026

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3889	0.4211	0.5556	0.3889	0.0556	0.1667	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	10.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.4118	0.2941	0.0294	0.0882	0.0588	0.2941
season	0.60	16	-	51.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	3.000	16.000	0.3137	0.3519	0.4118	0.3137	0.0196	0.0784	0.0588	0.3137

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1250
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4860
predicted_AVG	0.2959
predicted_BB	0.2230
predicted_H	1.0320
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_OBP	0.3417
predicted_R	0.6690
predicted_RBI	0.3740
predicted_SLG	0.4243
predicted_SO	0.9330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1880	3.4860	3.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2960	0.2959	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.2230	0.2001	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	1.0320	0.8867	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1040	0.0883	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3417	0.3419	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.6690	0.7220	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3740	0.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4240	0.4243	0.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9330	0.9768	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.314

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	622761
playerID	622761
playerName	Jorge Mateo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ATL
teamID	2

Michael Harris II (671739) · BATTER · CF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 37

All-history rows before 20260517: 37

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2908

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.811	3.000	0.189	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.000	-0.041	0.250
predicted_BB	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.162	1.000	-0.162	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.108	0.000	-0.108	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.250	-0.068	0.000
predicted_R	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.468	0.000	-0.218	0.250
predicted_SO	0.784	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.784	0.000	1.216	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.811	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.162	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.424	-
predicted_SO	0.784	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.802	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.169	0.007
predicted_H	0.967	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.156	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.432	-0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.000
predicted_SO	0.812	0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.802	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.173	0.004
predicted_H	1.008	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.163	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.002
predicted_R	0.466	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.422	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.790	-0.021

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.811

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.2564	0.2750	0.3590	0.2564	0.0256	0.0513	0.0256	0.2308
season	0.60	37	-	141.000	41.000	4.000	7.000	20.000	16.000	6.000	29.000	0.2908	0.3176	0.4681	0.2908	0.0496	0.1418	0.0425	0.2057

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1000
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7890
predicted_AVG	0.2658
predicted_BB	0.1790
predicted_H	1.0070
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.2994
predicted_R	0.4310
predicted_RBI	0.4150
predicted_SLG	0.4245
predicted_SO	0.8530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.1000	0.1048	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8110	3.7890	3.8022	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2658	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1620	0.1790	0.1688	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0070	0.9668	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1650	0.1560	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2994	0.2992	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.4310	0.4316	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4150	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4240	0.4245	0.4242	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7840	0.8530	0.8116	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	671739
playerID	671739
playerName	Michael Harris II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Drake Baldwin (686948) · BATTER · C · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 46

All-history rows before 20260517: 46

System season_avg: 0.3040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3043

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4130

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.304	0.667	-0.054	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.457	1.000	-0.457	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.217	2.000	-0.217	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.283	1.000	-0.283	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.750	-0.135	-0.500
predicted_R	0.848	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.848	1.000	-0.848	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.783	2.000	-0.783	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.603	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.549	1.667	-0.299	-1.417
predicted_SO	0.957	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.957	0.000	1.043	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.457	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.340	-
predicted_OBP	0.372	-
predicted_R	0.848	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.603	-
predicted_SO	0.957	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.953	-0.047
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000
predicted_BB	0.432	-0.025
predicted_H	1.177	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.037	-
predicted_HR	0.340	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.000
predicted_R	0.807	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.717	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.603	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.974	0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.953	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.311	0.009
predicted_BB	0.444	0.011
predicted_H	1.228	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.037	0.000
predicted_HR	0.355	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.008
predicted_R	0.871	0.065
predicted_RBI	0.775	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.615	0.012
predicted_SO	0.948	-0.026

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.089

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.8947	0.3684	0.1579	0.2105	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	12.000	0.2703	0.3571	0.6216	0.2703	0.1081	0.1622	0.1351	0.3243
season	0.60	46	-	184.000	56.000	6.000	13.000	36.000	39.000	21.000	44.000	0.3043	0.3846	0.5489	0.3044	0.0707	0.1956	0.1141	0.2391

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8870
predicted_AVG	0.3020
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_H	1.1740
predicted_HBP	0.0370
predicted_HR	0.3400
predicted_OBP	0.3725
predicted_R	0.7480
predicted_RBI	0.7130
predicted_SLG	0.6026
predicted_SO	0.9970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.1440	0.1358	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8870	3.9533	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3020	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4570	0.3970	0.4322	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.1740	1.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0370	0.0370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3400	0.3400	0.3400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3720	0.3725	0.3722	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8480	0.7480	0.8067	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.7130	0.7171	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6030	0.6026	0.6028	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9570	0.9970	0.9735	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.304

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	686948
playerID	686948
playerName	Drake Baldwin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Grant Holmes (656550) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 8

All-history rows before 20260517: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.625	4.000	-2.625	-4.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.500	2.000	-1.500	-1.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	4.125	1.000	2.875	6.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.050	4.000	0.050	1.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	4.250	5.000	-1.250	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.200	15.000	22.000	13.000	20.000	5.000	5.7042	1.4789	0.6338	0.9296	0.5493	0.8451	0.2113
last_10	0.35	8	41.100	20.000	33.000	21.000	34.000	7.000	4.3548	1.3065	0.4839	0.7984	0.5081	0.8226	0.1694
season	0.20	8	41.100	20.000	33.000	21.000	34.000	7.000	4.3548	1.3065	0.4839	0.7984	0.5081	0.8226	0.1694

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.4040
predicted_ER	2.7290
predicted_ERA	4.8597
predicted_H	4.5840
predicted_HR	0.8680
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.4610
predicted_WHIP	1.3828

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.4040	1.1720	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.7290	1.8429	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8597	4.8597	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.5840	5.8222	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8680	0.4232	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.0000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.4610	3.7122	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3828	1.3828	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	7
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	17
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.35
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	78
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	46
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	656550
playerID	656550
playerName	Grant Holmes
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dylan Lee (669276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.364	1.000	1.636	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.895	0.200	0.105	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.182	1.000	0.818	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000	1.2857
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	1.000	3.000	0.000	17.000	0.8710	0.2903	0.0968	0.2903	0.0000	1.6452
season	0.20	22	21.100	2.000	8.000	2.000	26.000	0.8438	0.4688	0.0938	0.3750	0.0938	1.2188

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_ER	0.2770
predicted_ERA	2.4886
predicted_H	0.6770
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1580
predicted_WHIP	0.8909

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2140	0.0901	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2770	0.1167	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4886	2.4886	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6770	1.4427	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0700	0.0295	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1580	1.6453	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8909	0.8909	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.84
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	669276
playerID	669276
playerName	Dylan Lee
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Raisel Iglesias (628452) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 13

All-history rows before 20260517: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.015	1.000	-0.015	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.308	2.000	0.692	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.8000	0.4000	0.4000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	6.000	3.000	16.000	0.8438	0.5625	0.2812	1.5000
season	0.20	13	13.200	7.000	3.000	17.000	0.7317	0.5122	0.2195	1.2439

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_ER	0.3020
predicted_ERA	2.7199
predicted_H	0.7770
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0810
predicted_WHIP	1.1356

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3590	0.1350	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3020	0.1136	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7199	2.7199	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7770	0.2922	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0840	0.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0810	1.6544	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1356	1.1356	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	3
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	628452
playerID	628452
playerName	Raisel Iglesias
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Robert Suarez (663158) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.211	0.000	0.789	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.968	1.100	0.232	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.0000	0.8824	0.0000	0.5294	0.3529	0.8823
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	0.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.0000	0.8438	0.0000	0.5625	0.2812	0.8438
season	0.20	19	19.100	1.000	13.000	4.000	19.000	0.4655	0.8793	0.0517	0.6724	0.2069	0.9828

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_ER	0.2680
predicted_ERA	2.4142
predicted_H	0.7780
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9260
predicted_WHIP	1.1220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3440	0.7304	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2680	0.1101	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4142	2.4142	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7780	0.3197	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0740	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9260	0.9696	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1220	1.1220	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	2
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.47
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663158
playerID	663158
playerName	Robert Suarez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

20260517_CHC@CHW

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 7 - 5 CHW", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 7 - 5 CHW", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 7 - 5 CHW", "winner": "CHC"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 7 - 3 CHW", "winner": "CHC"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CHC 7 - 5 CHW	CHC	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CHC 7 - 3 CHW	CHC	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CHC	5-5	0.500	4	4.10	-1	1L	average	average
Home CHW	6-4	0.600	5.20	5.10	1	1W	hot	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CHC	29-17	0.630	43	0.935	True
Home CHW	23-22	0.511	-8	-0.178	True
Signal	-	-	-1.113	-1.292	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	CHC @ CHW	3 - 8	CHW	5	blowout
2026-05-15	CHC @ CHW	10 - 5	CHC	5	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CHC	-	-	7	-	-	-	-
Game target CHW	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CHC	34	9	7	0	4	4	8
Player finalized CHW	33	9	5	0	4	2	10
Player model fractional CHC	33.18	7.66	5.30	0.95	3.98	4.92	7.99
Player model fractional CHW	31.16	7.10	4.50	1.39	3.99	3.58	8.58
Simulation box CHC	36	9	7	3	7	4	5
Simulation box CHW	34	7	3	1	3	3	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CHC	Starter	Colin Rea	5	2	5	5	1	4.79	1.50	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Palencia	1	0	0	0	0	4.06	1.29	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Hoby Milner	1	0	0	0	0	3.29	1.20	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Jacob Webb	1	0	1	1	0	3.27	1.16	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Phil Maton	1	1	0	1	2	4.76	1.29	True
Home CHW	Starter	Erick Fedde	6.10	5	4	5	3	4.03	1.25	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Grant Taylor	1	0	0	0	1	3.39	1.25	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Bryan Hudson	0.20	0	1	1	0	2.97	1.41	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Sean Newcomb	1	1	0	2	0	4.49	1.35	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Seranthony Domínguez	0	1	0	1	0	4.66	1.40	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CHC

Seiya Suzuki (673548) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 30

All-history rows before 20260517: 30

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2655

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	4.000	0.233	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.000	-0.015	0.250
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.000	-0.123	0.250
predicted_R	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.567	0.000	-0.567	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.487	0.000	-0.237	0.250
predicted_SO	1.133	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.133	2.000	-1.133	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.767	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.700	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	1.133	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.767	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.571	-0.029
predicted_H	0.760	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.145	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.652	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.437	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.154	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.580	0.009
predicted_H	0.786	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.152	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.691	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.462	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.136	-0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.1579	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.4210
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	13.000	0.1351	0.2727	0.2703	0.1351	0.0270	0.1081	0.1892	0.3513
season	0.60	30	-	113.000	30.000	4.000	7.000	17.000	21.000	18.000	34.000	0.2655	0.3731	0.4867	0.2655	0.0619	0.1504	0.1593	0.3009

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7670
predicted_AVG	0.2141
predicted_BB	0.5270
predicted_H	0.8060
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_OBP	0.3144
predicted_R	0.5800
predicted_RBI	0.4620
predicted_SLG	0.3808
predicted_SO	1.1860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1640	0.1453	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7670	3.7670	3.7670	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2141	0.2140	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.5270	0.5711	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8060	0.7601	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1530	0.1452	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3144	0.3142	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7000	0.5800	0.6524	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4620	0.4367	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3808	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1330	1.1860	1.1540	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	673548
playerID	673548
playerName	Seiya Suzuki
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Conforto (624424) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 14

All-history rows before 20260517: 14

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.786	3.000	0.214	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.333	-0.333	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.786	1.000	0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	1.000	-0.929	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.471	0.500	-0.221	-0.250
predicted_R	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.643	1.000	0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.541	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.564	0.667	-0.564	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.462	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.313	-
predicted_BB	0.769	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.416	-
predicted_R	0.692	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.541	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.452	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.132	0.132
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.000
predicted_BB	0.719	-0.050
predicted_H	0.862	0.102
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.000
predicted_R	0.685	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.352	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.541	0.000
predicted_SO	0.780	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.452	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.132	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.730	0.011
predicted_H	0.892	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.011	0.000
predicted_HR	0.095	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.004
predicted_R	0.725	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.373	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.521	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.768	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, weight=0.139, BvP AVG=0.312)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.4118	0.5238	0.8235	0.4118	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	12.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	0.3636	0.4878	0.6364	0.3636	0.0303	0.1515	0.2424	0.2121
season	0.60	13	-	39.000	13.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	9.000	10.000	10.000	0.3333	0.4694	0.5641	0.3333	0.0256	0.1282	0.2564	0.2564

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4310
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3900
predicted_AVG	0.3129
predicted_BB	0.6200
predicted_H	1.0610
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_OBP	0.4160
predicted_R	0.6710
predicted_RBI	0.4350
predicted_SLG	0.5410
predicted_SO	0.8010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4620	0.4310	0.4515	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3900	3.1322	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3130	0.3129	0.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7690	0.6200	0.7185	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	1.0610	0.8620	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1110	0.0905	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4160	0.4160	0.4160	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6920	0.6710	0.6849	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.4350	0.3524	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5410	0.5410	0.5410	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.8010	0.7798	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	624424
playerID	624424
playerName	Michael Conforto
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Dansby Swanson (621020) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.1840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1837

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.070	1.000	-0.070	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.419	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.419	5.000	-0.419	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.184	0.200	-0.184	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.535	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.535	0.000	0.465	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.628	1.000	-0.628	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.200	-0.043	0.050
predicted_R	0.628	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.628	1.000	-0.628	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.535	0.000	-0.535	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.285	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.340	0.400	-0.340	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.860	1.000	-0.860	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.419	-
predicted_AVG	0.164	-
predicted_BB	0.535	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.245	-
predicted_R	0.628	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.285	-
predicted_SO	0.860	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	0.024
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.453	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.164	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.475	-0.060
predicted_H	0.518	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.078	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.000
predicted_R	0.568	-0.060
predicted_RBI	0.325	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.285	0.000
predicted_SO	0.860	-0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.453	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.155	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.482	0.007
predicted_H	0.536	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.014
predicted_R	0.601	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.344	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.265	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.846	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.155 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=24.0, weight=0.178, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.0588	0.1111	0.1176	0.0588	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.1389	0.1842	0.1944	0.1389	0.0000	0.0278	0.0556	0.1944
season	0.60	43	-	147.000	27.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	23.000	27.000	23.000	37.000	0.1837	0.2931	0.3401	0.1837	0.0408	0.1565	0.1565	0.2517

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1290
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.5020
predicted_AVG	0.1636
predicted_BB	0.3870
predicted_H	0.5730
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.2452
predicted_R	0.4810
predicted_RBI	0.3610
predicted_SLG	0.2854
predicted_SO	0.8590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0700	0.1290	0.0940	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4190	3.5020	3.4528	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1640	0.1636	0.1638	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5350	0.3870	0.4748	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.5730	0.5178	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0900	0.0781	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2450	0.2452	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6280	0.4810	0.5682	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3610	0.3248	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2850	0.2854	0.2852	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8600	0.8590	0.8596	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.184

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	621020
playerID	621020
playerName	Dansby Swanson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2270

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.705	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.705	4.000	0.295	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.250	-0.227	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.659	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.659	0.000	0.341	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.841	1.000	-0.841	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.250	-0.147	-0.050
predicted_R	0.432	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	0.568	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.523	0.000	-0.523	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.350	0.250	-0.350	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.705	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.659	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.659	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.692	0.033
predicted_H	0.795	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	-0.000
predicted_R	0.423	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.452	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.009	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.659	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.002
predicted_BB	0.703	0.011
predicted_H	0.823	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.350	-0.007
predicted_R	0.448	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.478	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.005
predicted_SO	0.993	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	0.1765	0.3636	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.2941	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	10.000	0.2424	0.4186	0.3030	0.2424	0.0000	0.1515	0.3030	0.3030
season	0.60	44	-	163.000	37.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	23.000	19.000	29.000	44.000	0.2270	0.3469	0.3497	0.2270	0.0184	0.1411	0.1779	0.2699

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5940
predicted_AVG	0.2232
predicted_BB	0.7400
predicted_H	0.8020
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.3567
predicted_R	0.4100
predicted_RBI	0.4540
predicted_SLG	0.3278
predicted_SO	1.0210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.2000	0.2029	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0130	0.0189	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7050	3.5940	3.6594	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2232	0.2231	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6590	0.7400	0.6923	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8020	0.7949	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3567	0.3569	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.4100	0.4230	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4540	0.4516	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3278	0.3279	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0210	1.0086	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Alex Bregman (608324) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2472

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	1.000	-0.136	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	4.045	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.045	4.000	0.955	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.500	-0.047	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.523	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.523	0.000	-0.523	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	0.909	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.500	-0.135	-0.300
predicted_R	0.432	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	0.568	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.295	0.000	2.705	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.360	0.750	0.440	0.050
predicted_SO	0.795	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.795	2.000	-0.795	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	4.045	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.523	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.406	-
predicted_SO	0.795	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.005
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.047	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.478	-0.045
predicted_H	1.093	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.112	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.348	-0.000
predicted_R	0.480	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.000
predicted_SO	0.821	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	4.047	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.002
predicted_BB	0.486	0.007
predicted_H	1.131	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.117	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.009
predicted_R	0.508	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.293	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.004
predicted_SO	0.808	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 4.045

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3810	0.4091	0.5714	0.3810	0.0476	0.0476	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	11.000	0.2927	0.3556	0.3902	0.2927	0.0244	0.0488	0.0976	0.2683
season	0.60	44	-	178.000	44.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	13.000	19.000	23.000	35.000	0.2472	0.3350	0.3596	0.2472	0.0225	0.0730	0.1292	0.1966

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	4.0500
predicted_AVG	0.2780
predicted_BB	0.4150
predicted_H	1.1260
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_OBP	0.3476
predicted_R	0.5480
predicted_RBI	0.2870
predicted_SLG	0.4064
predicted_SO	0.8570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1470	0.1405	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0450	4.0500	4.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2780	0.2780	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5230	0.4150	0.4785	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.1260	1.0931	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1150	0.1121	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3476	0.3478	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.5480	0.4798	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2870	0.2770	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4060	0.4064	0.4062	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7950	0.8570	0.8206	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	608324
playerID	608324
playerName	Alex Bregman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2346

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.682	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.682	4.000	1.318	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.773	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.773	0.000	-0.773	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.864	0.000	-0.864	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.000	-0.374	0.000
predicted_R	0.795	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.795	0.000	-0.795	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.469	0.000	-0.469	0.000
predicted_SO	1.409	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.409	3.000	-0.409	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.682	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.773	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.376	-
predicted_R	0.795	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.444	-
predicted_SO	1.409	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.634	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.769	-0.004
predicted_H	0.827	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.202	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.376	-0.000
predicted_R	0.789	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.000
predicted_SO	1.412	0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.634	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.781	0.012
predicted_H	0.856	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.211	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.371	-0.005
predicted_R	0.835	0.046
predicted_RBI	0.473	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.009
predicted_SO	1.391	-0.022

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.091)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	0.2500	0.4286	0.4375	0.2500	0.0625	0.1250	0.3125	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	8.000	16.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.1471	0.2353	0.4706
season	0.60	44	-	162.000	38.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	20.000	35.000	34.000	62.000	0.2346	0.3737	0.4691	0.2346	0.0617	0.1235	0.2099	0.3827

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5650
predicted_AVG	0.2386
predicted_BB	0.7640
predicted_H	0.8510
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.2050
predicted_OBP	0.3755
predicted_R	0.7800
predicted_RBI	0.4560
predicted_SLG	0.4439
predicted_SO	1.4170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.0910	0.1175	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0130	0.0189	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6820	3.5650	3.6339	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2386	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7730	0.7640	0.7693	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8510	0.8269	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2050	0.2021	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3760	0.3755	0.3758	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7950	0.7800	0.7888	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4560	0.4466	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4440	0.4439	0.4440	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4090	1.4170	1.4123	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHC
teamID	5

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2582

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.136	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.136	5.000	-0.136	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.200	0.242	0.300
predicted_BB	0.409	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.409	0.000	0.591	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.068	1.000	0.932	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.200	0.267	0.400
predicted_R	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.659	0.000	-0.659	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.200	0.365	0.550
predicted_SO	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.136	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.409	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.285	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.309	-
predicted_SO	0.364	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.135	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.394	-0.015
predicted_H	0.884	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000
predicted_R	0.428	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.473	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.000
predicted_SO	0.369	0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.135	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.006
predicted_BB	0.400	0.006
predicted_H	0.915	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.052	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.005
predicted_R	0.453	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.501	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.014
predicted_SO	0.363	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 4.136

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.1429	0.2174	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0476	0.0952	0.0476
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.1395	0.1957	0.1860	0.1395	0.0000	0.0465	0.0698	0.0465
season	0.60	44	-	182.000	47.000	11.000	4.000	29.000	20.000	18.000	16.000	0.2582	0.3333	0.3846	0.2582	0.0220	0.1593	0.0989	0.0879

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1330
predicted_AVG	0.2155
predicted_BB	0.3720
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.2854
predicted_R	0.3900
predicted_RBI	0.4780
predicted_SLG	0.3090
predicted_SO	0.3760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1890	0.2248	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1360	4.1330	4.1348	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2155	0.2152	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4090	0.3720	0.3937	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8910	0.8845	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0617	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2850	0.2854	0.2852	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.3900	0.4282	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4780	0.4733	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3090	0.3090	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3640	0.3760	0.3690	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2410

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.689	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.689	3.000	0.311	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.333	0.509	0.417
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	1.000	2.111	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	1.000	0.889	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.500	0.435	0.250
predicted_R	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	2.000	1.556	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.393	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.386	1.333	1.114	0.167
predicted_SO	1.022	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.022	1.000	-1.022	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.044	-
predicted_AB	3.689	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.393	-
predicted_SO	1.022	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.036	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.648	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.363	0.030
predicted_H	0.752	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.056	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.000
predicted_R	0.507	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.481	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.000
predicted_SO	1.003	-0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.648	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.369	0.006
predicted_H	0.778	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.056	0.000
predicted_HR	0.137	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.285	-0.033
predicted_R	0.537	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.509	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.987	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1765	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.2424	0.3590	0.4545	0.2424	0.0606	0.2121	0.1515	0.2121
season	0.60	45	-	166.000	40.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	20.000	25.000	15.000	46.000	0.2410	0.3152	0.3855	0.2410	0.0301	0.1205	0.0904	0.2771

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0980
predicted_3B	0.0240
predicted_AB	3.5880
predicted_AVG	0.2306
predicted_BB	0.4070
predicted_H	0.8270
predicted_HBP	0.0560
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.3187
predicted_R	0.4360
predicted_RBI	0.5250
predicted_SLG	0.3931
predicted_SO	0.9750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0980	0.1057	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0440	0.0240	0.0358	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6890	3.5880	3.6477	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2306	0.2308	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.4070	0.3633	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8270	0.7519	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0560	0.0560	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1460	0.1306	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3187	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.4360	0.5069	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5250	0.4807	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3930	0.3931	0.3930	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0220	0.9750	1.0028	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Carson Kelly (608348) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 28

All-history rows before 20260517: 28

System season_avg: 0.2880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2885

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	5.000	0.286	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.288	0.600	0.212	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.071	3.000	0.929	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	0.964	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.600	0.132	-0.100
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.464	4.000	1.536	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.349	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.800	0.885	0.450
predicted_SO	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.700	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.388	-0.041
predicted_H	0.909	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.473	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.518	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	-0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.394	0.006
predicted_H	0.941	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.005
predicted_R	0.501	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.548	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.700	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.2941	0.2353	0.0000	0.2353	0.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2703	0.3077	0.2973	0.2703	0.0000	0.1892	0.0541	0.1622
season	0.60	28	-	104.000	30.000	5.000	1.000	13.000	14.000	12.000	20.000	0.2885	0.3675	0.3654	0.2885	0.0096	0.1250	0.1154	0.1923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6790
predicted_AVG	0.2680
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_H	0.9860
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.3310
predicted_R	0.4310
predicted_RBI	0.5610
predicted_SLG	0.3492
predicted_SO	0.7050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1700	0.1755	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.6790	3.7003	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2680	0.2680	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.3250	0.3884	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9860	0.9092	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3310	0.3310	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4310	0.4731	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5610	0.5177	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3490	0.3492	0.3491	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7050	0.7105	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.288

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	608348
playerID	608348
playerName	Carson Kelly
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Colin Rea (607067) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 9

All-history rows before 20260517: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.444	1.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.444	5.000	-0.444	-3.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.222	7.000	-0.222	-2.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.522	4.100	0.478	0.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.000	15.000	33.000	10.000	21.000	4.000	5.4000	1.7200	0.6000	1.3200	0.4000	0.8400	0.1600
last_10	0.35	9	42.100	22.000	47.000	13.000	36.000	6.000	4.6772	1.4173	0.5197	1.1102	0.3071	0.8504	0.1417
season	0.20	9	42.100	22.000	47.000	13.000	36.000	6.000	4.6772	1.4173	0.5197	1.1102	0.3071	0.8504	0.1417

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8170
predicted_ER	2.6180
predicted_ERA	4.7916
predicted_H	5.5660
predicted_HR	0.7120
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.3440
predicted_WHIP	1.5013

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.8170	1.4078	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.6180	2.3085	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7916	4.7916	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.5660	5.2825	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7120	0.8563	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.3440	4.6726	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5013	1.5013	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	5
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	82

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	4.68
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	80
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	607067
playerID	607067
playerName	Colin Rea
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Daniel Palencia (694037) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 9

All-history rows before 20260517: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.811	1.000	0.189	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	4.5000	1.2500	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500	1.5000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	9	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	2.2500	1.1250	0.2500	0.8750	0.2500	1.1250	0.1250
season	0.20	9	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	2.2500	1.1250	0.2500	0.8750	0.2500	1.1250	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_ER	0.4290
predicted_ERA	4.0608
predicted_H	0.8950
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9990
predicted_WHIP	1.2891

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3300	0.1087	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4290	0.1413	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0608	4.0608	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8950	0.2947	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1400	0.0461	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9990	0.3290	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2891	1.2891	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.25
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	694037
playerID	694037
playerName	Daniel Palencia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Hoby Milner (571948) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.824	2.000	0.176	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	0.3750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	2.7931	1.0345	0.3103	0.6207	0.4138	0.6207	0.1035
season	0.20	20	20.100	5.000	14.000	6.000	7.000	2.000	2.2131	0.9836	0.2459	0.6885	0.2951	0.3443	0.0984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3760
predicted_ER	0.3660
predicted_ERA	3.2949
predicted_H	0.8280
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7310
predicted_WHIP	1.2043

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3760	0.1565	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3660	0.1523	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2949	3.2949	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8280	0.3446	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0970	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7310	0.3043	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2043	1.2043	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.21
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	571948
playerID	571948
playerName	Hoby Milner
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jacob Webb (657097) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	0.000	-0.368
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.842	1.000	0.158
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.053	1.000	-0.053

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	1.5882	0.7059	0.1765	0.5294	0.1765	0.8823	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	1.6875	0.9375	0.1875	0.6562	0.2812	1.1250	0.0938
season	0.20	19	18.100	7.000	19.000	8.000	20.000	3.000	3.4364	1.4727	0.3818	1.0364	0.4364	1.0909	0.1636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3310
predicted_ER	0.3630
predicted_ERA	3.2676
predicted_H	0.8270
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9770
predicted_WHIP	1.1582

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3310	0.1342	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3630	0.1472	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2676	3.2676	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8270	0.9299	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1030	0.0418	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9770	0.9907	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1582	1.1582	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.44
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	657097
playerID	657097
playerName	Jacob Webb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 13

All-history rows before 20260517: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.385	0.000	1.615	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.769	0.000	0.231	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.077	1.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.754	1.000	0.246	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.231	2.000	-1.231	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	3.8571	0.8571	0.4286	0.8571	0.0000	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	8.000	12.000	2.000	13.000	2.000	7.7143	1.5000	0.8571	1.2857	0.2143	1.3929	0.2143
season	0.20	13	11.200	10.000	14.000	5.000	16.000	2.000	7.7143	1.6286	0.8571	1.2000	0.4286	1.3714	0.1714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_ER	0.5290
predicted_ERA	4.7598
predicted_H	0.9820
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0760
predicted_WHIP	1.2913

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3100	1.3895	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5290	0.8299	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7598	4.7598	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9820	0.9935	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1540	0.0556	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0760	0.3887	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2913	1.2913	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Home Team: CHW

Andrew Benintendi (643217) · BATTER · DH · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 32

All-history rows before 20260517: 32

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2393

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2390

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	1.000	-0.156	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.656	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.656	3.000	0.344	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.667	-0.239	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	2.000	-0.875	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	1.000	-0.094	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.667	-0.283	-0.667
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.469	1.000	-0.469	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.393	2.000	-0.393	-2.000
predicted_SO	1.156	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.156	0.000	-0.156	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.656	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	1.156	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.002
predicted_3B	0.050	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.558	-0.099
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	0.044
predicted_H	0.772	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.455	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.372	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	1.017	-0.139

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.558	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.292	-0.002
predicted_H	0.767	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.031
predicted_R	0.449	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.367	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.024	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	0.1538	0.3125	0.4615	0.1538	0.0769	0.0769	0.2308	0.0769
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3714	0.4333	0.3000	0.0333	0.1000	0.1333	0.1667
season	0.60	32	-	117.000	28.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	15.000	14.000	8.000	37.000	0.2393	0.2835	0.3932	0.2393	0.0256	0.1282	0.0684	0.3162

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0310
predicted_AB	3.4060
predicted_AVG	0.2362
predicted_BB	0.3620
predicted_H	0.8050
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_OBP	0.3065
predicted_R	0.4820
predicted_RBI	0.3900
predicted_SLG	0.4111
predicted_SO	0.8030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1620	0.1584	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0310	0.0498	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6560	3.4060	3.5575	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2362	0.2361	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3620	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8050	0.7717	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1240	0.1216	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3065	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.4820	0.4553	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3900	0.3718	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4111	0.4110	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1560	0.8030	1.0169	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	643217
playerID	643217
playerName	Andrew Benintendi
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHW
teamID	6

Miguel Vargas (678246) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2452

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.690	4.000	0.310	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.005	0.000
predicted_BB	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.690	0.000	-0.690	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	1.000	0.095	0.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.262	1.000	-0.262	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.250	-0.120	0.000
predicted_R	0.786	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.786	1.000	0.214	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	3.000	-0.643	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.569	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.510	1.000	-0.010	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.690	0.000	-0.690	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.690	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.786	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.569	-
predicted_SO	0.690	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.010
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.690	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.641	-0.049
predicted_H	0.999	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.059	-
predicted_HR	0.285	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.380	-0.000
predicted_R	0.801	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.705	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.569	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.679	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.637	-0.004
predicted_H	0.993	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.059	0.000
predicted_HR	0.282	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.377	-0.003
predicted_R	0.790	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.696	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.550	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.683	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.076

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.7368	0.3684	0.1053	0.2632	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	9.000	10.000	6.000	5.000	0.3143	0.4186	0.7143	0.3143	0.1143	0.2571	0.1714	0.1429
season	0.60	42	-	155.000	38.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	27.000	33.000	29.000	29.000	0.2452	0.3704	0.5097	0.2452	0.0710	0.1742	0.1871	0.1871

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1680
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.6910
predicted_AVG	0.2782
predicted_BB	0.5710
predicted_H	1.0270
predicted_HBP	0.0590
predicted_HR	0.2920
predicted_OBP	0.3798
predicted_R	0.8220
predicted_RBI	0.7270
predicted_SLG	0.5685
predicted_SO	0.6630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1680	0.1532	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.6910	3.6904	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2782	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6900	0.5710	0.6412	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0270	0.9993	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0590	0.0590	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.2920	0.2849	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3798	0.3799	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7860	0.8220	0.8008	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.7270	0.7052	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5690	0.5685	0.5688	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6900	0.6630	0.6789	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	678246
playerID	678246
playerName	Miguel Vargas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Munetaka Murakami (808959) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2338

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.581	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.581	3.000	-0.581	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.667	-0.234	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.837	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.837	1.000	0.163	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.837	2.000	-0.837	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.395	2.000	-0.395	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.750	-0.127	-0.500
predicted_R	0.744	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.744	3.000	-0.744	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.744	3.000	-0.744	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.577	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.571	2.667	-0.571	-2.667
predicted_SO	1.465	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.465	1.000	-0.465	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.023	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.581	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.837	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.360	-
predicted_OBP	0.392	-
predicted_R	0.744	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.577	-
predicted_SO	1.465	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.035	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.539	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.845	0.008
predicted_H	0.847	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.362	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.392	-0.000
predicted_R	0.749	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.648	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.577	0.000
predicted_SO	1.394	-0.071

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.035	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.539	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.840	-0.006
predicted_H	0.841	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.358	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.384	-0.008
predicted_R	0.738	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.639	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.551	-0.026
predicted_SO	1.403	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.100

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	0.2667	0.4762	0.6667	0.2667	0.1333	0.2000	0.4000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	9.000	9.000	14.000	0.2647	0.4186	0.6471	0.2647	0.1177	0.1765	0.2647	0.4118
season	0.60	43	-	154.000	36.000	1.000	17.000	32.000	32.000	36.000	63.000	0.2338	0.3770	0.5714	0.2338	0.1104	0.2078	0.2338	0.4091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0520
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4790
predicted_AVG	0.2462
predicted_BB	0.8570
predicted_H	0.8560
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.3650
predicted_OBP	0.3916
predicted_R	0.7550
predicted_RBI	0.6600
predicted_SLG	0.5770
predicted_SO	1.2920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0230	0.0520	0.0349	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5810	3.4790	3.5391	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2462	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8370	0.8570	0.8452	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8560	0.8466	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3600	0.3650	0.3621	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3920	0.3916	0.3918	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7440	0.7550	0.7485	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6600	0.6482	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5770	0.5770	0.5770	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4650	1.2920	1.3940	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	808959
playerID	808959
playerName	Munetaka Murakami
pos	IF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Edgar Quero (700337) · BATTER · C · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 23

All-history rows before 20260517: 23

System season_avg: 0.1650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1646

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.435	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.435	3.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.165	0.333	-0.165	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.348	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.348	0.000	0.652	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.565	1.000	-0.565	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.242	0.250	0.008	0.000
predicted_R	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.304	1.000	-0.304	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.228	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.177	0.333	-0.177	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.913	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.913	1.000	1.087	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.435	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.348	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.087	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.228	-
predicted_SO	0.913	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.051	0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.488	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	-0.034
predicted_H	0.592	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.073	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.246	-0.000
predicted_R	0.130	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.387	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.228	0.000
predicted_SO	0.946	0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.051	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.488	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.312	-0.002
predicted_H	0.588	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.073	0.000
predicted_HR	0.023	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	-0.009
predicted_R	0.128	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.382	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.203	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.953	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.1667	0.1905	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	0.1667	0.2143	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0556	0.3056
season	0.60	23	-	79.000	13.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	21.000	0.1646	0.2418	0.1772	0.1646	0.0886	0.1013	0.2658

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5750
predicted_AVG	0.1849
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.6610
predicted_HBP	0.0730
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.2456
predicted_R	0.2000
predicted_RBI	0.4320
predicted_SLG	0.2280
predicted_SO	1.0010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0430	0.0630	0.0505	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4350	3.5750	3.4878	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1849	0.1850	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3480	0.2590	0.3144	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6610	0.5919	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0730	0.0730	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0280	0.0230	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2456	0.2458	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0870	0.2000	0.1297	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4320	0.3872	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2280	0.2280	0.2280	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9130	1.0010	0.9462	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.165

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	700337
playerID	700337
playerName	Edgar Quero
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHW
teamID	6

Tristan Peters (671976) · BATTER · CF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 31

All-history rows before 20260517: 31

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2473

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.000	-0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.258	1.000	-0.258	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.742	0.000	-0.742	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.333	-0.307	-0.333
predicted_R	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_SO	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.710	0.000	-0.710	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.258	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.258	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.298	-
predicted_SO	0.710	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.088	0.088
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.254	-0.004
predicted_H	0.611	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000
predicted_R	0.269	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.269	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.000
predicted_SO	0.716	0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.088	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.252	-0.002
predicted_H	0.607	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.021	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	-0.019
predicted_R	0.266	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.265	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.266	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.721	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.1875	0.1250	0.1250	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1935	0.2424	0.2903	0.1935	0.0968	0.0645	0.2258
season	0.60	31	-	93.000	23.000	4.000	7.000	8.000	8.000	22.000	0.2473	0.3069	0.2903	0.2473	0.0753	0.0860	0.2366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2290
predicted_AVG	0.2194
predicted_BB	0.2470
predicted_H	0.7080
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.2764
predicted_R	0.2870
predicted_RBI	0.3150
predicted_SLG	0.2984
predicted_SO	0.7250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.1790	0.1482	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2290	3.0877	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2194	0.2192	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2580	0.2470	0.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.7080	0.6105	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0215	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2764	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2580	0.2870	0.2691	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.3150	0.2687	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2980	0.2984	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7100	0.7250	0.7157	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	671976
playerID	671976
playerName	Tristan Peters
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Derek Hill (656537) · BATTER · RF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 11

All-history rows before 20260517: 11

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2069

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2450

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.636	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.636	3.000	1.364	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.043	0.250
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.000	-0.008	0.250
predicted_R	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.310	0.000	-0.060	0.250
predicted_SO	1.091	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.091	0.000	-1.091	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.636	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.363	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.023	0.023
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.809	0.173
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.194	0.012
predicted_H	0.565	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.100	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.309	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.213	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.000
predicted_SO	1.062	-0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.023	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.809	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.193	-0.001
predicted_H	0.561	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.099	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.026
predicted_R	0.305	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.210	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.315	-0.048
predicted_SO	1.069	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1538	0.2143	0.3846	0.1538	0.0769	0.0769	0.0769	0.3846
last_10	0.20	10	-	26.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.2308	0.2593	0.3462	0.2308	0.0385	0.0385	0.0385	0.3462
season	0.60	11	-	29.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	0.2069	0.2581	0.3103	0.2069	0.0345	0.0345	0.0690	0.4138

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.2010
predicted_AVG	0.2222
predicted_BB	0.2220
predicted_H	0.7110
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.2769
predicted_R	0.3920
predicted_RBI	0.2660
predicted_SLG	0.3631
predicted_SO	0.9950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0750	0.0230	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6360	3.2010	2.8090	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.2220	0.1942	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.7110	0.5646	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1220	0.0998	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2769	0.2770	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.3920	0.3094	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2660	0.2133	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3630	0.3631	0.3630	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	0.9950	1.0616	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	656537
playerID	656537
playerName	Derek Hill
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Colson Montgomery (695657) · BATTER · SS · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2357

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.738	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.738	4.000	0.262	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.250	0.264	0.250
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.881	1.000	1.119	1.000
predicted_HR	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.310	1.000	0.690	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.250	0.170	0.250
predicted_R	0.524	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.524	1.000	0.476	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.738	1.000	2.262	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.576	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.535	1.000	0.715	0.250
predicted_SO	1.214	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.214	0.000	-0.214	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.738	-
predicted_AVG	0.256	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.524	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.576	-
predicted_SO	1.214	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.771	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.332	-0.025
predicted_H	0.926	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.092	-
predicted_HR	0.325	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.567	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.665	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.576	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.184	-0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.330	-0.002
predicted_H	0.920	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.092	0.000
predicted_HR	0.321	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.020
predicted_R	0.560	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.656	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.549	-0.027
predicted_SO	1.192	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.085

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.7895	0.3158	0.1579	0.1579	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	11.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	7.000	2.000	13.000	0.2683	0.3023	0.6341	0.2683	0.0976	0.2195	0.0488	0.3171
season	0.60	42	-	157.000	37.000	8.000	13.000	31.000	22.000	15.000	51.000	0.2357	0.3296	0.5350	0.2357	0.0828	0.1974	0.0955	0.3248

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8190
predicted_AVG	0.2562
predicted_BB	0.2950
predicted_H	0.9780
predicted_HBP	0.0920
predicted_HR	0.3470
predicted_OBP	0.3249
predicted_R	0.6300
predicted_RBI	0.7020
predicted_SLG	0.5755
predicted_SO	1.1400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1740	0.1835	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7380	3.8190	3.7711	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2560	0.2562	0.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.2950	0.3317	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9780	0.9259	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0920	0.0920	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3470	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3249	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5240	0.6300	0.5673	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.7020	0.6653	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5760	0.5755	0.5758	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2140	1.1400	1.1838	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	695657
playerID	695657
playerName	Colson Montgomery
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Chase Meidroth (805367) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2739

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.738	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.738	4.000	-0.738	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.000	-0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.452	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.024	0.000	-1.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.000	-0.098	0.250
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.738	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.452	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.667	-0.071
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.452	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.656	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.479	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	0.938	-0.062

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.449	-0.003
predicted_H	0.894	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.122	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.012
predicted_R	0.647	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.472	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.944	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.2000	0.3158	0.4000	0.2000	0.0667	0.3333	0.2000	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	4.000	9.000	0.2941	0.3590	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.1765	0.1177	0.2647
season	0.60	42	-	157.000	43.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	28.000	19.000	42.000	0.2739	0.3483	0.3885	0.2739	0.0191	0.0637	0.1210	0.2675

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1650
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5630
predicted_AVG	0.2604
predicted_BB	0.4530
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1280
predicted_OBP	0.3383
predicted_R	0.6400
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.4155
predicted_SO	0.8480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.1650	0.1940	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7380	3.5630	3.6666	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2604	0.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4520	0.4530	0.4524	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9280	0.8996	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1280	0.1233	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3383	0.3381	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6400	0.6560	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4910	0.4786	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4155	0.4152	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8480	0.9380	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	805367
playerID	805367
playerName	Chase Meidroth
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sam Antonacci (803011) · BATTER · LF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 24

All-history rows before 20260517: 24

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2619

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	1.833	2.000
predicted_3B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.500	0.338	0.100
predicted_BB	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	2.000	2.083	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.500	0.230	0.100
predicted_R	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	2.000	0.375	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.385	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.393	0.500	0.607	0.500
predicted_SO	0.542	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.542	1.000	-0.542	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.083	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.292	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.385	-
predicted_SO	0.542	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.016
predicted_3B	0.068	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.550	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.281	-0.011
predicted_H	0.929	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.258	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.355	-0.000
predicted_R	0.623	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.305	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.385	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.593	0.050

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.000
predicted_3B	0.068	0.000
predicted_AB	3.550	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.279	-0.002
predicted_H	0.924	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.258	0.000
predicted_HR	0.042	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.041
predicted_R	0.615	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.301	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.001
predicted_SO	0.597	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	2.000	7.000	0.3056	0.4048	0.3611	0.3056	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.1944
season	0.60	24	-	84.000	22.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	15.000	7.000	13.000	0.2619	0.3700	0.3929	0.2619	0.0119	0.1071	0.0833	0.1548

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.6300
predicted_AVG	0.2647
predicted_BB	0.2620
predicted_H	0.9610
predicted_HBP	0.2580
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.3547
predicted_R	0.6200
predicted_RBI	0.3140
predicted_SLG	0.3847
predicted_SO	0.6740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2090	0.1831	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0830	0.0430	0.0677	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6300	3.5497	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2647	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2920	0.2620	0.2805	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9610	0.9295	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2580	0.2580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0427	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3547	0.3549	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.6200	0.6231	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3140	0.3054	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3850	0.3847	0.3849	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5420	0.6740	0.5925	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	803011
playerID	803011
playerName	Sam Antonacci
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Erick Fedde (607200) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 8

All-history rows before 20260517: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.750	1.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_ER	2.250	2.000	2.750	3.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.500	6.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	6.100	6.100	6.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.200	5.000	0.900	1.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	3.250	2.000	0.750	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 7.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	12.000	22.000	11.000	14.000	8.000	4.0000	1.2222	0.4444	0.8148	0.4074	0.5185	0.2963
last_10	0.35	8	43.000	18.000	36.000	14.000	26.000	10.000	3.7674	1.1628	0.4186	0.8372	0.3256	0.6047	0.2326
season	0.20	8	43.000	18.000	36.000	14.000	26.000	10.000	3.7674	1.1628	0.4186	0.8372	0.3256	0.6047	0.2326

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3210
predicted_ER	2.7320
predicted_ERA	4.0296
predicted_H	5.2880
predicted_HR	1.3420
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	4.2900
predicted_WHIP	1.2469

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.3210	2.6690	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	2.7320	3.8943	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0296	4.0296	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.2880	5.1404	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	3.0000	1.3420	2.1917	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	7.1000	6.0000	6.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.2900	3.6289	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2469	1.2469	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.1
H	5
R	5
ER	5
BB	3
SO	4
HR	3
BF	27
Pitches	107

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.77
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	80
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	49
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	607200
playerID	607200
playerName	Erick Fedde
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Grant Taylor (691799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 6

All-history rows before 20260517: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.100	-0.017	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-1.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125
last_10	0.35	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632
season	0.20	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_ER	0.3770
predicted_ERA	3.3910
predicted_H	0.9060
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0250
predicted_WHIP	1.2493

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3440	0.7951	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3770	0.1178	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3910	3.3910	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9060	0.2830	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1040	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0250	0.3202	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2493	1.2493	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260409_CHW@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691799
playerID	691799
playerName	Grant Taylor
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Bryan Hudson (663542) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 12

All-history rows before 20260517: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.817	1.000	-0.617	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	-0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.0000	1.8000	0.0000	1.0000	0.8000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	0.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	0.0000	1.3929	0.0000	0.8571	0.5357	1.2857
season	0.20	12	11.200	2.000	11.000	8.000	15.000	1.5429	1.6286	0.1714	0.9429	0.6857	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3670
predicted_ER	0.2540
predicted_ERA	2.9652
predicted_H	0.7240
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8300
predicted_WHIP	1.4137

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3670	0.1326	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2540	0.0918	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9652	2.9652	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7240	0.9003	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0690	0.0249	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8300	0.9386	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4137	1.4137	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260424_WAS@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663542
playerID	663542
playerName	Bryan Hudson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Newcomb (656794) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 1

All-history rows before 20260517: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	3.000	3.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.100	2.100	-1.100	-1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
last_10	0.35	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
season	0.20	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1930
predicted_ER	0.2510
predicted_ERA	4.4938
predicted_H	0.4870
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4580
predicted_WHIP	1.3504

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1930	0.0508	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2510	0.8028	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4938	4.4938	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.4870	1.6016	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0158	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.4580	0.1206	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3504	1.3504	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656794
playerID	656794
playerName	Sean Newcomb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Seranthony Domínguez (622554) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 2

All-history rows before 20260517: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.500	2.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	0.100	-0.550	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
season	0.20	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1390
predicted_ER	0.1810
predicted_ERA	4.6634
predicted_H	0.3510
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3170
predicted_WHIP	1.4014

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1390	0.0346	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1810	0.7963	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6634	4.6634	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3510	0.8386	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0560	0.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3170	0.8301	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4014	1.4014	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	622554
playerID	622554
playerName	Seranthony Domínguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

20260517_CIN@CLE

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.53782, "home_win_probability": 0.53782, "away_win_probability": 0.46218000000000004, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 CLE", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 CLE", "confidence": 0.53782, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CIN 4 - 5 CLE	CLE	0.538	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CIN 4 - 5 CLE	CLE	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CIN	4-6	0.400	5.40	5.80	-4	1L	hot	weak
Home CLE	7-3	0.700	4.90	3.40	15	1W	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CIN	24-22	0.522	-28	-0.609	True
Home CLE	25-22	0.532	6	0.128	True
Signal	-	-	0.736	0.752	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	CIN @ CLE	4 - 7	CLE	3	blowout
2026-05-15	CIN @ CLE	7 - 6	CIN	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CIN	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target CLE	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CIN	33	9	4	0	2	3	9
Player finalized CLE	32	8	4	0	3	4	7
Player model fractional CIN	32.28	7.19	4.18	1.16	4.12	4.09	8.43
Player model fractional CLE	31.93	7.23	4.18	0.75	3.99	4.16	6.63
Simulation box CIN	32	6	4	1	4	3	9
Simulation box CLE	35	11	5	1	5	1	5

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CIN	Starter	Brady Singer	4.20	3	5	8	0	5.27	1.53	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Graham Ashcraft	1.20	0	0	0	0	3.34	1.24	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Tony Santillan	1	2	0	3	1	5.32	1.45	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Pierce Johnson	0.20	0	0	0	0	4.18	1.32	True
Home CLE	Starter	Gavin Williams	6.10	3	5	5	3	4.28	1.23	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Cade Smith	1.10	0	3	0	0	3.15	1.08	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Erik Sabrowski	0.20	1	1	1	0	2.52	1.09	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Matt Festa	0.20	0	0	0	0	4.37	1.31	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CIN

Nathaniel Lowe (663993) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 24

All-history rows before 20260517: 24

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2561

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.417	4.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.250	0.077	0.083
predicted_BB	0.458	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.458	0.000	0.542	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.156	0.250
predicted_R	0.417	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.412	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.537	0.250	-0.203	0.083
predicted_SO	0.917	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	1.000	1.083	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.458	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.412	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.467	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.448	-0.010
predicted_H	0.740	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.148	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.399	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.418	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.412	0.000
predicted_SO	0.973	0.056

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.444	-0.004
predicted_H	0.725	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.146	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.017
predicted_R	0.384	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.402	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.981	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	15.000	0.2000	0.2821	0.3143	0.2000	0.0286	0.1143	0.1143	0.4286
season	0.60	24	-	82.000	21.000	5.000	6.000	15.000	10.000	11.000	22.000	0.2561	0.3441	0.5366	0.2561	0.0732	0.1829	0.1341	0.2683

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5500
predicted_AVG	0.2311
predicted_BB	0.4310
predicted_H	0.8210
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1610
predicted_OBP	0.3164
predicted_R	0.3690
predicted_RBI	0.4630
predicted_SLG	0.4125
predicted_SO	1.0660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2080	0.1550	0.1879	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	3.5500	3.4674	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2311	0.2310	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4580	0.4310	0.4478	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8210	0.7396	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1610	0.1480	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3164	0.3162	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.3690	0.3988	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4630	0.4176	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4120	0.4125	0.4122	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	1.0660	0.9734	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	663993
playerID	663993
playerName	Nathaniel Lowe
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 46

All-history rows before 20260517: 46

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2989

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.239	0.000	-0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.321	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.333	-0.049	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.391	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.391	1.000	-0.391	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.196	1.000	-0.196	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.500	-0.113	-0.250
predicted_R	0.739	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.739	1.000	0.261	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.652	0.000	0.348	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.502	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.522	0.333	-0.272	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.196	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.196	1.000	0.804	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.321	-
predicted_BB	0.391	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.739	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.502	-
predicted_SO	1.196	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	0.040
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.018	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.321	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	-0.039
predicted_H	1.251	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.066	-
predicted_HR	0.125	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.000
predicted_R	0.741	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.511	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.502	0.000
predicted_SO	1.150	-0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.018	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.349	-0.003
predicted_H	1.226	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.066	0.000
predicted_HR	0.123	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.361	-0.014
predicted_R	0.713	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.492	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.467	-0.035
predicted_SO	1.159	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.3810	0.4348	0.5238	0.3810	0.0000	0.0476	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	16.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	7.000	1.000	10.000	0.3810	0.4000	0.5000	0.3810	0.0000	0.1191	0.0238	0.2381
season	0.60	46	-	184.000	55.000	11.000	10.000	30.000	34.000	18.000	55.000	0.2989	0.3627	0.5217	0.2989	0.0544	0.1630	0.0978	0.2989

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3360
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0440
predicted_AVG	0.3205
predicted_BB	0.2960
predicted_H	1.2960
predicted_HBP	0.0660
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_OBP	0.3744
predicted_R	0.7430
predicted_RBI	0.5270
predicted_SLG	0.5020
predicted_SO	1.0850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2390	0.3360	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0440	4.0182	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3210	0.3205	0.3208	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3910	0.2960	0.3518	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.2960	1.2514	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0660	0.0660	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1320	0.1250	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3744	0.3742	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7390	0.7430	0.7407	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5270	0.5111	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5020	0.5020	0.5020	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1960	1.0850	1.1502	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

TJ Friedl (670770) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 36

All-history rows before 20260517: 36

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1884

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	1.000	-0.833	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.500	-0.023	-0.250
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_SO	0.972	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.972	0.000	-0.972	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.264	-
predicted_SO	0.972	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.746	-0.087
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.327	-0.006
predicted_H	0.623	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.133	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.375	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.000
predicted_SO	0.981	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.746	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.163	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.324	-0.003
predicted_H	0.611	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.133	0.000
predicted_HR	0.041	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.230	-0.047
predicted_R	0.361	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.144	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.239	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.989	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1333	0.2778	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	0.1333	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.2647
season	0.60	36	-	138.000	26.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	14.000	12.000	35.000	0.1884	0.2727	0.2754	0.1884	0.0145	0.0507	0.0870	0.2536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6160
predicted_AVG	0.1862
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_H	0.6730
predicted_HBP	0.1330
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.2772
predicted_R	0.3540
predicted_RBI	0.1650
predicted_SLG	0.2644
predicted_SO	0.9950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1430	0.1573	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.6160	3.7457	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1862	0.1861	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3180	0.3270	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6730	0.6234	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1330	0.1330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0420	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2772	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.3540	0.3749	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1650	0.1501	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2640	0.2644	0.2642	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9720	0.9950	0.9813	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670770
playerID	670770
playerName	TJ Friedl
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 46

All-history rows before 20260517: 46

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2356

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.783	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.783	2.000	0.217	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.000	-0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.543	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.543	2.000	-0.543	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.891	0.000	-0.891	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.500	-0.328	-0.500
predicted_R	0.565	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.565	0.000	-0.565	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.674	1.000	-0.674	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.454	0.000	-0.454	0.000
predicted_SO	0.848	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.848	1.000	0.152	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.783	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.543	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.565	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.379	-
predicted_SO	0.848	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.793	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.573	0.030
predicted_H	0.764	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000
predicted_R	0.566	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.458	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.379	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.870	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.793	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.569	-0.005
predicted_H	0.749	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.135	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.020
predicted_R	0.545	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.441	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.351	-0.027
predicted_SO	0.877	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.1579	0.3333	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.2632	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	0.1795	0.3043	0.3077	0.1795	0.0256	0.0513	0.1795	0.2564
season	0.60	46	-	174.000	41.000	8.000	10.000	31.000	26.000	25.000	39.000	0.2356	0.3284	0.4540	0.2356	0.0575	0.1782	0.1437	0.2241

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8080
predicted_AVG	0.2134
predicted_BB	0.6160
predicted_H	0.8130
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.3220
predicted_R	0.5670
predicted_RBI	0.4840
predicted_SLG	0.3785
predicted_SO	0.9010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1840	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7830	3.8080	3.7933	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2134	0.2132	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5430	0.6160	0.5731	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8130	0.7642	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1470	0.1370	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3220	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5650	0.5670	0.5658	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4840	0.4581	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3790	0.3785	0.3788	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8480	0.9010	0.8698	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Will Benson (666181) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

System season_avg: 0.1500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	2.727	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.727	3.000	1.273	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_BB	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.250	-0.282	-0.250
predicted_R	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.265	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.045	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	2.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.159	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.265	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	0.012
predicted_3B	0.038	-0.007
predicted_AB	2.840	0.113
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.000
predicted_BB	0.474	0.019
predicted_H	0.443	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.079	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.301	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.157	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.265	0.000
predicted_SO	1.008	0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	2.840	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.470	-0.004
predicted_H	0.434	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.079	0.000
predicted_HR	0.061	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.023
predicted_R	0.290	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.151	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.264	-0.001
predicted_SO	1.016	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.0000	0.2941	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3333	0.4167
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	12.000	0.1667	0.3243	0.3000	0.1667	0.0333	0.0333	0.2000	0.4000
season	0.60	22	-	60.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	10.000	22.000	0.1500	0.2817	0.2500	0.1500	0.0167	0.0333	0.1667	0.3667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0780
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.0380
predicted_AVG	0.1592
predicted_BB	0.5080
predicted_H	0.4830
predicted_HBP	0.0790
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2964
predicted_R	0.3510
predicted_RBI	0.1690
predicted_SLG	0.2649
predicted_SO	1.0210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0450	0.0780	0.0570	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0250	0.0377	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7270	3.0380	2.8399	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1590	0.1592	0.1591	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.5080	0.4742	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.4830	0.4429	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0790	0.0790	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0618	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2964	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.3510	0.3013	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1690	0.1569	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2650	0.2649	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0210	1.0076	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	666181
playerID	666181
playerName	Will Benson
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2201

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.786	4.000	0.214	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.030	0.250
predicted_BB	0.524	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.000	-0.072	0.250
predicted_R	0.452	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.000	-0.115	0.250
predicted_SO	0.976	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.976	2.000	0.024	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.786	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.524	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.481	-
predicted_SO	0.976	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.761	-0.025
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	-0.024
predicted_H	0.883	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.183	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.490	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.629	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.000
predicted_SO	0.907	-0.069

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.761	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.496	-0.004
predicted_H	0.865	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.025
predicted_R	0.472	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.605	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.429	-0.053
predicted_SO	0.915	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.7368	0.3158	0.1053	0.3158	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	0.3235	0.4103	0.6471	0.3235	0.0882	0.2941	0.1471	0.1471
season	0.60	42	-	159.000	35.000	8.000	5.000	19.000	19.000	22.000	41.000	0.2201	0.3224	0.3648	0.2201	0.0314	0.1195	0.1384	0.2579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7240
predicted_AVG	0.2577
predicted_BB	0.4660
predicted_H	0.9600
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_OBP	0.3451
predicted_R	0.5450
predicted_RBI	0.6850
predicted_SLG	0.4815
predicted_SO	0.8080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.2260	0.2047	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7860	3.7240	3.7607	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2577	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5240	0.4660	0.5003	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9600	0.8831	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.2010	0.1827	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3451	0.3450	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.5450	0.4900	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6850	0.6288	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4810	0.4815	0.4812	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9760	0.8080	0.9073	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2581

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	1.000	-0.186	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.605	4.000	-0.605	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.250	0.075	0.083
predicted_BB	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.930	1.000	0.070	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	-0.079	0.000
predicted_R	0.535	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.535	0.000	0.465	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.395	2.000	0.605	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.445	0.500	-0.112	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.837	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.837	0.000	-0.837	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.605	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.326	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.535	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.445	-
predicted_SO	0.837	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.713	0.108
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.007
predicted_H	0.991	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.635	0.100
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.445	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.773	-0.064

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.713	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.331	-0.003
predicted_H	0.970	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.043	0.000
predicted_HR	0.126	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.322	-0.022
predicted_R	0.611	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.448	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.417	-0.027
predicted_SO	0.780	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	0.3636	0.4167	0.4545	0.3636	0.0000	0.1818	0.0909	0.0454
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	11.000	4.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3478	0.4762	0.2857	0.0476	0.1429	0.0952	0.0952
season	0.60	43	-	155.000	40.000	8.000	7.000	17.000	23.000	14.000	36.000	0.2581	0.3295	0.4452	0.2581	0.0452	0.1097	0.0903	0.2323

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2210
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8700
predicted_AVG	0.2787
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_H	1.0790
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.3439
predicted_R	0.7800
predicted_RBI	0.5020
predicted_SLG	0.4446
predicted_SO	0.6810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.2210	0.2002	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6050	3.8700	3.7128	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2787	0.2789	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3260	0.3440	0.3333	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0790	0.9906	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1390	0.1277	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3439	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5350	0.7800	0.6347	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5020	0.4652	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4450	0.4446	0.4448	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8370	0.6810	0.7735	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tyler Stephenson (663886) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 32

All-history rows before 20260517: 32

System season_avg: 0.1680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1682

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.344	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.344	3.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.168	0.000	-0.168	0.000
predicted_BB	0.469	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.469	0.000	0.531	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.266	0.000	-0.016	0.250
predicted_R	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_SO	1.094	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.094	1.000	-0.094	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.344	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.469	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.248	-
predicted_R	0.156	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.302	-
predicted_SO	1.094	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.411	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	-0.040
predicted_H	0.543	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.107	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.000
predicted_R	0.179	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.498	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.000
predicted_SO	1.054	-0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.411	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.426	-0.004
predicted_H	0.532	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.002
predicted_R	0.172	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.480	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.277	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.062	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.156 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1111	0.1500	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.3333	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	0.1667	0.2250	0.2778	0.1667	0.0278	0.1667	0.0833	0.2778
season	0.60	32	-	107.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	5.000	15.000	35.000	0.1682	0.2661	0.2804	0.1682	0.0280	0.1121	0.1402	0.3271

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0960
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5150
predicted_AVG	0.1735
predicted_BB	0.3680
predicted_H	0.6100
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_OBP	0.2484
predicted_R	0.2150
predicted_RBI	0.5580
predicted_SLG	0.3019
predicted_SO	0.9920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.0960	0.0948	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3440	3.5150	3.4112	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1735	0.1732	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4690	0.3680	0.4293	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6100	0.5432	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1170	0.1067	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2480	0.2484	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1560	0.2150	0.1792	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5580	0.4985	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3020	0.3019	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0940	0.9920	1.0539	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.168

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	663886
playerID	663886
playerName	Tyler Stephenson
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CIN
teamID	7

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

System season_avg: 0.3230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3226

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	4.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.321	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.323	0.000	0.177	0.500
predicted_BB	0.722	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.111	0.000	0.889	2.000
predicted_HR	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.418	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.440	0.000	0.060	0.500
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.950	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.056	0.000	0.944	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.646	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.726	0.000	0.774	1.500
predicted_SO	0.611	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.611	1.000	-0.611	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.321	-
predicted_BB	0.722	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.418	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.950	-
predicted_SLG	0.646	-
predicted_SO	0.611	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	0.012
predicted_3B	0.051	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.529	0.085
predicted_AVG	0.321	0.000
predicted_BB	0.686	-0.036
predicted_H	1.098	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.249	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.418	0.000
predicted_R	0.663	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.994	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.646	0.000
predicted_SO	0.645	0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.529	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.680	-0.006
predicted_H	1.075	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.246	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.417	-0.001
predicted_R	0.638	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.956	-0.037
predicted_SLG	0.625	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.650	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.070

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	10.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	0.4500	0.5417	0.9000	0.4500	0.1000	0.5000	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	14.000	6.000	8.000	6.000	0.3421	0.4565	0.6579	0.3421	0.0526	0.3684	0.2105	0.1579
season	0.60	18	-	62.000	20.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	12.000	13.000	11.000	0.3226	0.4400	0.7258	0.3226	0.0968	0.3065	0.2097	0.1774

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3110
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.6760
predicted_AVG	0.3211
predicted_BB	0.6240
predicted_H	1.1800
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.2660
predicted_OBP	0.4183
predicted_R	0.6550
predicted_RBI	1.0690
predicted_SLG	0.6464
predicted_SO	0.7030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.3110	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0430	0.0512	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.6760	3.5290	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3210	0.3211	0.3210	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7220	0.6240	0.6861	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.1800	1.0976	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2660	0.2495	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4180	0.4183	0.4181	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6550	0.6626	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9500	1.0690	0.9936	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6460	0.6464	0.6461	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6110	0.7030	0.6447	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.323

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

Brady Singer (663903) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 9

All-history rows before 20260517: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.222	1.000	-1.222	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	6.556	6.000	1.444	2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.511	3.200	-0.311	1.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	3.111	2.000	1.889	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.100	16.000	32.000	8.000	14.000	8.000	5.9178	1.6438	0.6575	1.3151	0.3288	0.5753	0.3288
last_10	0.35	9	42.000	27.000	59.000	11.000	28.000	11.000	5.7857	1.6667	0.6429	1.4048	0.2619	0.6667	0.2619
season	0.20	9	42.000	27.000	59.000	11.000	28.000	11.000	5.7857	1.6667	0.6429	1.4048	0.2619	0.6667	0.2619

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5840
predicted_ER	2.8100
predicted_ERA	5.2702
predicted_H	5.7710
predicted_HR	1.1580
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	3.5180
predicted_WHIP	1.5326

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.5840	0.7906	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.8100	2.4043	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2702	5.2702	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	5.7710	6.8874	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.1580	0.5780	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	3.5180	4.2603	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5326	1.5326	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	8
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	5
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	5.79
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.2
Pitching_Pitches	75
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	43
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663903
playerID	663903
playerName	Brady Singer
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.727	3.000	-0.727	-3.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.364	4.000	-0.364	-4.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.932	0.000	0.268	1.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.136	0.000	-1.136	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.3529	0.7059	1.4118	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	5.000	8.000	12.000	1.000	1.6875	1.2188	0.1875	0.4688	0.7500	1.1250	0.0938
season	0.20	21	21.200	4.000	13.000	13.000	25.000	1.000	1.6615	1.2000	0.1846	0.6000	0.6000	1.1539	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5270
predicted_ER	0.3710
predicted_ERA	3.3432
predicted_H	0.7090
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0960
predicted_WHIP	1.2364

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5270	0.2228	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3710	0.1569	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3432	3.3432	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7090	0.2998	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1260	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0960	0.4635	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2364	1.2364	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	3.32
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.550	0.000	1.450	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.900	1.000	2.100	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.865	1.000	0.135	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	1.000	-0.900	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	4.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.3077	1.8462	0.9231	1.3846	0.4615	0.6923	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	11.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	7.0000	1.5556	0.7778	1.2222	0.3333	0.8889	0.5556
season	0.20	19	18.000	7.000	14.000	9.000	18.000	5.000	3.5000	1.2778	0.3889	0.7778	0.5000	1.0000	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3980
predicted_ER	0.5910
predicted_ERA	5.3179
predicted_H	1.0500
predicted_HR	0.3100
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8990
predicted_WHIP	1.4476

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3980	0.7570	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.5910	2.0277	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3179	5.3179	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.0500	2.2130	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.3100	0.7215	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8990	0.3628	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4476	1.4476	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Pierce Johnson (572955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.695	0.100	-0.495	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.810	0.000	-0.810	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.6000	0.6000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	8.000	5.000	7.000	2.000	5.0000	1.4444	0.5556	0.8889	0.5556	0.7778	0.2222
season	0.20	21	18.100	8.000	18.000	7.000	17.000	3.000	3.9273	1.3636	0.4364	0.9818	0.3818	0.9273	0.1636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_ER	0.2850
predicted_ERA	4.1786
predicted_H	0.5350
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5510
predicted_WHIP	1.3174

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2750	0.1115	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2850	0.1156	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1786	4.1786	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5350	0.2169	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0980	0.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5510	0.2234	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3174	1.3174	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	572955
playerID	572955
playerName	Pierce Johnson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Home Team: CLE

Chase DeLauter (800050) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 39

All-history rows before 20260517: 39

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2752

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	0.744	1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	4.000	0.179	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.475	0.750
predicted_BB	0.538	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.051	0.000	1.949	3.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.200	0.390	0.550
predicted_R	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.410	0.000	0.590	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.366	1.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.477	0.000	1.273	1.750
predicted_SO	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.821	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.538	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.410	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.366	-
predicted_SO	0.410	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.796	-0.025
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.541	0.003
predicted_H	0.853	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.092	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.378	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.516	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.366	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.392	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.796	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.001
predicted_BB	0.546	0.005
predicted_H	0.883	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.095	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.004
predicted_R	0.402	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.547	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.013
predicted_SO	0.388	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.821

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	0.1176	0.2727	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.2353	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	0.2051	0.2889	0.2564	0.2051	0.0000	0.1282	0.1282	0.0513
season	0.60	39	-	149.000	41.000	10.000	1.000	6.000	26.000	16.000	21.000	16.000	0.2752	0.3605	0.4765	0.2752	0.0403	0.1745	0.1409	0.1074

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.7590
predicted_AVG	0.2318
predicted_BB	0.5450
predicted_H	0.8710
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.3251
predicted_R	0.3320
predicted_RBI	0.5240
predicted_SLG	0.3658
predicted_SO	0.3650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.1880	0.2284	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0150	0.0215	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8210	3.7590	3.7958	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2318	0.2319	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5380	0.5450	0.5408	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8710	0.8526	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0950	0.0920	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3251	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4100	0.3320	0.3783	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5240	0.5157	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3660	0.3658	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4100	0.3650	0.3917	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	800050
playerID	800050
playerName	Chase DeLauter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 47

All-history rows before 20260517: 47

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2267

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.191	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.191	0.000	-0.191	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.660	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.660	4.000	0.340	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.500	0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.702	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.702	1.000	-0.702	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.830	2.000	1.170	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.600	0.147	-0.100
predicted_R	0.574	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.574	1.000	0.426	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.362	0.000	-0.362	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.384	0.500	0.116	0.000
predicted_SO	0.596	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.596	0.000	0.404	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.660	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.702	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.574	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	0.596	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.666	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.675	-0.027
predicted_H	0.877	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.067	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.000
predicted_R	0.560	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.327	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	0.596	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.666	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.002
predicted_BB	0.682	0.006
predicted_H	0.909	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.084	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.006
predicted_R	0.594	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.347	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.006
predicted_SO	0.590	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=29.0, weight=0.197, BvP AVG=0.414)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3478	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	9.000	6.000	0.2857	0.4348	0.3143	0.2857	0.0000	0.0857	0.2571	0.1714
season	0.60	47	-	172.000	39.000	9.000	6.000	17.000	27.000	33.000	28.000	0.2267	0.3527	0.3837	0.2267	0.0349	0.0988	0.1919	0.1628

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1750
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6740
predicted_AVG	0.2456
predicted_BB	0.6370
predicted_H	0.9020
predicted_HBP	0.0670
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.3602
predicted_R	0.5400
predicted_RBI	0.3370
predicted_SLG	0.3611
predicted_SO	0.5960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1910	0.1750	0.1844	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6600	3.6740	3.6658	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2456	0.2458	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7020	0.6370	0.6752	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9020	0.8773	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0670	0.0670	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0820	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3602	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5740	0.5400	0.5600	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3370	0.3270	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3611	0.3610	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5960	0.5960	0.5960	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Daniel Schneemann (682177) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 33

All-history rows before 20260517: 33

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2679

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	1.758	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.394	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.394	3.000	0.606	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	0.232	0.500
predicted_BB	0.424	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	0.000	1.091	2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.000	0.151	0.500
predicted_R	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.485	0.000	0.515	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.000	0.554	1.000
predicted_SO	1.061	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.061	0.000	-0.061	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.394	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.424	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	1.061	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.394	-0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.425	0.001
predicted_H	0.797	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.465	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.485	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.359	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.006	-0.055

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.394	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.005
predicted_BB	0.429	0.004
predicted_H	0.826	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.083	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.003
predicted_R	0.493	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.514	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.021
predicted_SO	0.996	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2941	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000	0.1333	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	9.000	0.1818	0.3077	0.2121	0.1818	0.0000	0.1212	0.1818	0.2727
season	0.60	33	-	112.000	30.000	8.000	4.000	16.000	15.000	14.000	35.000	0.2679	0.3492	0.4464	0.2679	0.0357	0.1429	0.1250	0.3125

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1650
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3930
predicted_AVG	0.2384
predicted_BB	0.4270
predicted_H	0.8090
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.3251
predicted_R	0.4800
predicted_RBI	0.4920
predicted_SLG	0.3588
predicted_SO	0.9200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.1650	0.2117	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3940	3.3930	3.3936	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2384	0.2382	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4240	0.4270	0.4252	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8090	0.7975	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0800	0.0800	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3251	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.4800	0.4648	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4920	0.4847	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3588	0.3589	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0610	0.9200	1.0055	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682177
playerID	682177
playerName	Daniel Schneemann
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Travis Bazzana (683953) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 16

All-history rows before 20260517: 16

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2364

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.438	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	5.000	0.562	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.200	0.014	0.050
predicted_BB	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.812	1.000	0.188	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.364	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.391	0.200	-0.141	0.050
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.309	0.200	-0.059	0.050
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	3.000	0.250	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.438	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.750	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.364	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.352	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.499	0.061
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.677	-0.073
predicted_H	0.834	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.093	-
predicted_HR	0.072	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.364	0.000
predicted_R	0.480	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.435	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.000
predicted_SO	0.785	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.499	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.684	0.006
predicted_H	0.864	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.093	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.006
predicted_R	0.509	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.462	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.778	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.3684	0.3158	0.0000	0.1579	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	8.000	0.2571	0.3953	0.3714	0.2571	0.0286	0.1429	0.1714	0.2286
season	0.60	16	-	55.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	12.000	12.000	0.2364	0.3913	0.3091	0.2364	0.0182	0.1273	0.2182	0.2182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1200
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6060
predicted_AVG	0.2526
predicted_BB	0.5490
predicted_H	0.9110
predicted_HBP	0.0930
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_OBP	0.3643
predicted_R	0.4440
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.3520
predicted_SO	0.8480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.1200	0.0830	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4380	3.6060	3.4987	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2526	0.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7500	0.5490	0.6774	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9110	0.8337	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0930	0.0930	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0770	0.0725	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3640	0.3643	0.3641	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4440	0.4798	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4790	0.4349	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3520	0.3520	0.3520	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8480	0.7854	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	683953
playerID	683953
playerName	Travis Bazzana
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Patrick Bailey (672275) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 3

All-history rows before 20260517: 3

System season_avg: 0.1350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.1350

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by 0.1350. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.967	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.333	2.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.199	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.125	0.333	-0.125	-0.333
predicted_R	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.187	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.967	-
predicted_AVG	0.136	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	0.330	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.199	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.187	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.013	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.011	0.044
predicted_AVG	0.136	0.000
predicted_BB	0.234	0.001
predicted_H	0.364	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.199	0.000
predicted_R	0.176	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.221	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.187	0.000
predicted_SO	0.848	0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.013	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.011	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.125	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.236	0.002
predicted_H	0.377	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.035	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.189	-0.010
predicted_R	0.187	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.235	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.165	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.840	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.125 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.0000	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0769	0.0769	0.3846
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	0.1071	0.1667	0.1071	0.1071	0.0000	0.0714	0.0714	0.4286
season	0.60	30	-	89.000	12.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	24.000	0.1348	0.1979	0.1685	0.1348	0.0112	0.0674	0.0786	0.2697

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0350
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.0830
predicted_AVG	0.1360
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	0.4190
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.1994
predicted_R	0.1910
predicted_RBI	0.2560
predicted_SLG	0.1874
predicted_SO	0.9270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0350	0.0133	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9670	3.0830	3.0111	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1360	0.1360	0.1360	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.2350	0.2338	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3300	0.4190	0.3639	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0390	0.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1990	0.1994	0.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.1910	0.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2560	0.2213	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1870	0.1874	0.1872	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.9270	0.8483	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.135

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	672275
playerID	672275
playerName	Patrick Bailey
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CLE
teamID	8

Angel Martínez (682657) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 34

All-history rows before 20260517: 34

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2824

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.853	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.853	4.000	0.147	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.500	-0.032	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.088	2.000	-0.088	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.600	-0.083	-0.350
predicted_R	0.618	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.618	3.000	-0.618	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.618	2.000	-0.618	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.559	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.527	1.500	-0.277	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.853	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.853	0.000	0.147	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.853	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.618	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.559	-
predicted_SO	0.853	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.849	-0.004
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.194	0.018
predicted_H	0.989	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.130	-
predicted_HR	0.258	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.000
predicted_R	0.671	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.626	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.559	0.000
predicted_SO	0.879	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.849	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.195	0.002
predicted_H	1.024	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.130	0.000
predicted_HR	0.266	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.040
predicted_R	0.712	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.665	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.533	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.871	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.069

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.853

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.8500	0.3500	0.1500	0.3000	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	3.000	11.000	0.2432	0.3333	0.5405	0.2432	0.0811	0.1622	0.0811	0.2973
season	0.60	34	-	131.000	37.000	8.000	8.000	21.000	21.000	6.000	29.000	0.2824	0.3333	0.5267	0.2824	0.0611	0.1603	0.0458	0.2214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8420
predicted_AVG	0.2803
predicted_BB	0.2200
predicted_H	1.0770
predicted_HBP	0.1300
predicted_HR	0.2840
predicted_OBP	0.3409
predicted_R	0.7500
predicted_RBI	0.6810
predicted_SLG	0.5592
predicted_SO	0.9190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.2140	0.2266	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8530	3.8420	3.8486	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2803	0.2801	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.2200	0.1935	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0770	0.9886	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1300	0.1300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2840	0.2575	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3409	0.3410	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6180	0.7500	0.6706	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6810	0.6263	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5590	0.5592	0.5591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8530	0.9190	0.8793	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682657
playerID	682657
playerName	Angel Martínez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Kyle Manzardo (700932) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 32

All-history rows before 20260517: 32

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1913

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.594	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.594	5.000	0.406	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.400	0.059	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.688	2.000	0.312	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.400	-0.021	-0.150
predicted_R	0.312	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.312	1.000	0.688	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.281	0.000	1.719	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.243	0.400	0.007	-0.150
predicted_SO	1.250	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	2.000	-1.250	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.594	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.344	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.312	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.298	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.603	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.361	0.017
predicted_H	0.777	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.000
predicted_R	0.382	0.070
predicted_RBI	0.308	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.000
predicted_SO	1.196	-0.054

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.603	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.364	0.003
predicted_H	0.805	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.036	0.000
predicted_HR	0.034	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.010
predicted_R	0.406	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.327	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.284	-0.014
predicted_SO	1.185	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.714)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.3529	0.2941	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	11.000	0.2432	0.3095	0.2973	0.2432	0.0000	0.1081	0.1081	0.2973
season	0.60	32	-	115.000	22.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	10.000	11.000	40.000	0.1913	0.2713	0.2435	0.1913	0.0087	0.0783	0.0956	0.3478

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6180
predicted_AVG	0.2263
predicted_BB	0.3860
predicted_H	0.8190
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.3048
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.3210
predicted_SLG	0.2985
predicted_SO	1.1130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.1450	0.1141	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5940	3.6180	3.6035	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2263	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3440	0.3860	0.3606	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8190	0.7772	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0328	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3048	0.3049	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3120	0.4900	0.3823	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3210	0.3083	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2980	0.2985	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.1130	1.1959	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	700932
playerID	700932
playerName	Kyle Manzardo
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Brayan Rocchio (677587) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2770

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.289	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.289	3.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.667	0.056	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.356	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.356	1.000	0.644	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.911	2.000	0.089	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.750	0.143	-0.250
predicted_R	0.378	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	0.000	0.622	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	2.000	-0.556	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.667	-0.038	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.289	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.356	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	0.378	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.301	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.280	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.366	0.010
predicted_H	0.846	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.055	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.357	-0.000
predicted_R	0.350	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.613	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000
predicted_SO	0.429	0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.301	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.369	0.003
predicted_H	0.877	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.055	0.000
predicted_HR	0.046	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.017
predicted_R	0.372	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.425	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.2667	0.3333	0.2667	0.2667	0.0000	0.4000	0.1333	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.3333	0.4250	0.3636	0.3333	0.0000	0.1818	0.1515	0.1515
season	0.60	45	-	148.000	41.000	5.000	3.000	25.000	17.000	16.000	17.000	0.2770	0.3571	0.3716	0.2770	0.0203	0.1689	0.1081	0.1149

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0980
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3190
predicted_AVG	0.2798
predicted_BB	0.3800
predicted_H	0.9290
predicted_HBP	0.0550
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.3567
predicted_R	0.3100
predicted_RBI	0.6750
predicted_SLG	0.3560
predicted_SO	0.5050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0980	0.1057	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2890	3.3190	3.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2798	0.2799	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3560	0.3800	0.3657	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9290	0.8464	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0550	0.0550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0441	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3567	0.3569	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.3100	0.3504	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6750	0.6126	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3560	0.3560	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3780	0.5050	0.4295	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	677587
playerID	677587
playerName	Brayan Rocchio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

Steven Kwan (680757) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2037

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	3.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.333	-0.204	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.595	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.595	2.000	-0.595	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	1.000	-0.786	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.600	-0.316	-0.600
predicted_R	0.476	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.476	2.000	-0.476	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.236	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.259	0.333	-0.259	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.524	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.524	1.000	-0.524	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.595	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.476	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.236	-
predicted_SO	0.524	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.810	-0.047
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.000
predicted_BB	0.647	0.052
predicted_H	0.646	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.473	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.228	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.236	0.000
predicted_SO	0.562	0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.654	0.006
predicted_H	0.669	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.022
predicted_R	0.502	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.242	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.234	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.557	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.360)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.857

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	0.1176	0.3478	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.3529	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	9.000	5.000	0.1351	0.3043	0.1622	0.1351	0.0000	0.0270	0.2432	0.1351
season	0.60	42	-	162.000	33.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	20.000	25.000	22.000	0.2037	0.3158	0.2593	0.2037	0.0062	0.0617	0.1543	0.1358

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7430
predicted_AVG	0.1825
predicted_BB	0.7230
predicted_H	0.6830
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.3179
predicted_R	0.4690
predicted_RBI	0.2390
predicted_SLG	0.2365
predicted_SO	0.6180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1140	0.1311	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8570	3.7430	3.8102	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1825	0.1822	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5950	0.7230	0.6475	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6830	0.6458	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0280	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3179	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4760	0.4690	0.4731	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2390	0.2278	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2360	0.2365	0.2362	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5240	0.6180	0.5625	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	680757
playerID	680757
playerName	Steven Kwan
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Gavin Williams (668909) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 9

All-history rows before 20260517: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.444	1.000	0.556	2.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.556	5.000	0.444	-2.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.778	10.000	0.222	-5.000
predicted_IP	6.100	6.100	6.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.044	6.000	0.056	0.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	7.333	6.000	-2.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	32.200	17.000	33.000	6.000	37.000	5.000	4.6837	1.1939	0.5204	1.0102	0.1837	1.1326	0.1531
last_10	0.35	9	55.100	23.000	43.000	22.000	66.000	8.000	3.7410	1.1747	0.4157	0.7771	0.3976	1.1928	0.1446
season	0.20	9	55.100	23.000	43.000	22.000	66.000	8.000	3.7410	1.1747	0.4157	0.7771	0.3976	1.1928	0.1446

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9540
predicted_ER	3.0330
predicted_ERA	4.2769
predicted_H	5.9170
predicted_HR	0.9110
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	6.9180
predicted_WHIP	1.2330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.9540	2.4779	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	3.0330	3.0165	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2769	4.2769	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.9170	5.4577	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9110	0.4547	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.1000	6.1000	6.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	6.9180	5.9573	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2330	1.2330	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.1
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	5
HR	0
BF	27
Pitches	107

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	3.74
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	10
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	101
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	73
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668909
playerID	668909
playerName	Gavin Williams
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.238	1.000	-0.238	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.905	0.000	-0.905	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.010	1.000	0.090	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.476	2.000	1.524	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.3750	0.1875	1.8750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	2.000	17.000	0.000	1.6875	0.9375	0.1875	0.7500	0.1875	1.5938	0.0000
season	0.20	21	21.200	7.000	19.000	5.000	31.000	1.000	2.9077	1.1077	0.3231	0.8769	0.2308	1.4308	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_ER	0.3500
predicted_ERA	3.1486
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2930
predicted_WHIP	1.0791

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2940	0.1243	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3500	0.1480	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1486	3.1486	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7850	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0740	0.0313	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.2930	2.2782	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0791	1.0791	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.91
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 23

All-history rows before 20260517: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.174	0.000	0.826	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.304	0.000	0.696	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.683	0.100	-0.483	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.565	1.000	-0.565	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	0.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8182	0.0000	0.0000	0.8182	2.7273	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	17.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.1250	0.6250	2.1250	0.0000
season	0.20	23	19.200	4.000	7.000	10.000	36.000	1.000	1.8305	0.8644	0.2034	0.3559	0.5085	1.8305	0.0508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3580
predicted_ER	0.1950
predicted_ERA	2.5166
predicted_H	0.4020
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.0860
predicted_WHIP	1.0918

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3580	0.1478	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1950	0.6678	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5166	2.5166	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4020	0.7532	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0540	0.6096	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0860	1.0355	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0918	1.0918	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.83
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.950	0.000	-0.950	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.795	0.100	-0.595	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	2.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	5.4000	1.5000	0.6000	1.2000	0.3000	1.5000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.7500	0.3750	1.1250	0.2500
season	0.20	20	20.100	11.000	19.000	5.000	20.000	4.000	4.8689	1.1803	0.5410	0.9344	0.2459	0.9836	0.1967

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_ER	0.3380
predicted_ERA	4.3694
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7610
predicted_WHIP	1.3114

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2440	0.1016	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3380	0.1407	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3694	4.3694	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6690	0.2785	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1320	0.0549	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7610	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3114	1.3114	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.87
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

20260517_KC@STL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.546651, "home_win_probability": 0.546651, "away_win_probability": 0.453349, "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 5 STL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 5 STL", "confidence": 0.546651, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "KC 4 - 5 STL", "winner": "STL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "KC 4 - 6 STL", "winner": "STL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	KC 4 - 5 STL	STL	0.547	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	KC 4 - 6 STL	STL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away KC	2-8	0.200	3.60	4.80	-12	6L	average	average
Home STL	6-4	0.600	3.60	3.40	2	3W	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away KC	19-27	0.413	-23	-0.500	True
Home STL	27-18	0.600	5	0.111	True
Signal	-	-	0.611	0.891	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	KC @ STL	2 - 4	STL	2	close
2026-05-16	KC @ STL	4 - 5	STL	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target KC	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target STL	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized KC	31	9	1	0	1	1	9
Player finalized STL	34	8	3	0	3	3	9
Player model fractional KC	32.02	6.77	3.37	0.87	3.31	3.40	7.46
Player model fractional STL	33.23	8.15	4.75	0.93	3.97	3.31	8.04
Simulation box KC	33	6	4	1	4	4	4
Simulation box STL	34	10	6	1	6	5	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away KC	Starter	Stephen Kolek	4.20	4	4	7	3	4.93	1.26	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Lynch IV	1	0	1	0	0	3.39	1.27	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Lucas Erceg	1	0	0	0	1	3.19	1.33	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	John Schreiber	0.20	0	1	0	1	3.37	1.34	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Nick Mears	0.20	2	1	3	0	3.89	1.44	True
Home STL	Starter	Andre Pallante	5.10	1	3	3	3	4.28	1.31	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	George Soriano	1	0	0	0	0	3.94	1.42	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	JoJo Romero	1	2	1	3	1	3.34	1.21	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	Riley O'Brien	1	0	0	0	0	4.14	1.21	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	Ryne Stanek	0.20	1	0	0	0	4.38	1.32	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: KC

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2659

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.302	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.302	1.000	-0.302	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	4.023	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.023	4.000	0.977	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.250	-0.266	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.070	1.000	-1.070	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.332	0.250	-0.332	-0.250
predicted_R	0.558	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.558	1.000	-0.558	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.405	0.500	-0.405	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.651	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.651	0.000	0.349	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.302	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	4.023	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.419	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.558	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	0.651	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.057	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.416	-0.003
predicted_H	0.977	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.000
predicted_R	0.573	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.428	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	0.623	-0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	4.057	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.407	-0.008
predicted_H	0.929	-0.048
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.013
predicted_R	0.523	-0.050
predicted_RBI	0.391	-0.037
predicted_SLG	0.348	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.635	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.182)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.023

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.1304	0.2000	0.1739	0.1304	0.0000	0.0870	0.0870	0.0870
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	0.2927	0.3696	0.3902	0.2927	0.0000	0.1220	0.1220	0.0732
season	0.60	43	-	173.000	46.000	13.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	24.000	18.000	28.000	0.2659	0.3316	0.4046	0.2659	0.0173	0.1041	0.1041	0.1618

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2870
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	4.1060
predicted_AVG	0.2441
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_H	1.0020
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.3118
predicted_R	0.5950
predicted_RBI	0.4390
predicted_SLG	0.3609
predicted_SO	0.5830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3020	0.2870	0.2958	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0230	4.1060	4.0571	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2441	0.2440	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4190	0.4110	0.4157	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0020	0.9772	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0550	0.0521	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3118	0.3119	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5580	0.5950	0.5732	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4390	0.4278	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3609	0.3610	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6510	0.5830	0.6231	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Michael Massey (686681) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 26

All-history rows before 20260517: 26

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.115	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.115	4.000	0.885	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.250	-0.222	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.692	1.000	-0.692	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.235	0.250	-0.235	-0.250
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.420	0.250	-0.420	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.654	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.654	0.000	0.346	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.269	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.115	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.077	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.654	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.213	0.098
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.086	0.009
predicted_H	0.633	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000
predicted_R	0.402	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.422	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	0.629	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.213	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.085	-0.002
predicted_H	0.602	-0.031
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.116	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.208	-0.032
predicted_R	0.367	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.386	-0.037
predicted_SLG	0.376	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.641	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.4118	0.1765	0.0588	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	0.2059	0.2059	0.4412	0.2059	0.0588	0.1471	0.0000	0.1471
season	0.60	26	-	81.000	18.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	2.000	17.000	0.2222	0.2353	0.4198	0.2222	0.0370	0.1482	0.0247	0.2099

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2300
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3780
predicted_AVG	0.2187
predicted_BB	0.1020
predicted_H	0.7390
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.2405
predicted_R	0.4310
predicted_RBI	0.4930
predicted_SLG	0.4153
predicted_SO	0.5860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2690	0.2300	0.2544	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1150	3.3780	3.2133	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2187	0.2189	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0770	0.1020	0.0863	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7390	0.6332	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1420	0.1220	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2405	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.4310	0.4022	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4930	0.4222	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4153	0.4151	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6540	0.5860	0.6286	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686681
playerID	686681
playerName	Michael Massey
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Salvador Perez (521692) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1954

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	0.886	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.955	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.955	4.000	0.045	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.000	0.055	0.250
predicted_BB	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.773	0.000	0.227	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.234	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.232	0.000	0.018	0.250
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.172	0.500
predicted_SO	0.932	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.932	1.000	-0.932	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.955	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.136	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.234	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.327	-
predicted_SO	0.932	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.973	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.141	0.005
predicted_H	0.765	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.234	0.000
predicted_R	0.362	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.364	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.327	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.939	0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.973	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.138	-0.003
predicted_H	0.728	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.127	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.211	-0.024
predicted_R	0.331	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.333	-0.032
predicted_SLG	0.305	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.958	0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.182)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.955

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2273	0.2273	0.3636	0.2273	0.0454	0.0454	0.0000	0.1818
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	0.1538	0.1905	0.2308	0.1538	0.0256	0.1026	0.0513	0.3077
season	0.60	44	-	174.000	34.000	5.000	6.000	18.000	16.000	6.000	41.000	0.1954	0.2324	0.3276	0.1954	0.0345	0.1035	0.0345	0.2356

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0860
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.2005
predicted_BB	0.1480
predicted_H	0.8020
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.2345
predicted_R	0.3600
predicted_RBI	0.3850
predicted_SLG	0.3265
predicted_SO	0.9490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.0860	0.1025	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9550	4.0000	3.9734	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2005	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1360	0.1480	0.1409	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8020	0.7654	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1380	0.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2340	0.2345	0.2342	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.3600	0.3624	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3850	0.3643	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3270	0.3265	0.3268	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9320	0.9490	0.9390	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	521692
playerID	521692
playerName	Salvador Perez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Isaac Collins (686555) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 36

All-history rows before 20260517: 36

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.333	-0.225	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.556	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.500	-0.099	-0.250
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.342	0.333	-0.342	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.028	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.028	0.000	-1.028	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	1.028	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.334	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.540	-0.016
predicted_H	0.655	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.168	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000
predicted_R	0.405	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.929	-0.099

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.334	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.529	-0.011
predicted_H	0.623	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.168	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.041
predicted_R	0.370	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.356	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.295	-0.038
predicted_SO	0.947	0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.1333	0.3333	0.2000	0.1333	0.0000	0.1333	0.2000	0.0667
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.2188	0.3500	0.3750	0.2188	0.0312	0.1250	0.1562	0.1875
season	0.60	36	-	120.000	27.000	5.000	3.000	15.000	15.000	20.000	37.000	0.2250	0.3493	0.3417	0.2250	0.0250	0.1250	0.1667	0.3083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1680
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3350
predicted_AVG	0.2120
predicted_BB	0.5160
predicted_H	0.7070
predicted_HBP	0.1680
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_OBP	0.3392
predicted_R	0.3870
predicted_RBI	0.4210
predicted_SLG	0.3328
predicted_SO	0.7800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1680	0.1506	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3350	3.3338	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2120	0.2120	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.5160	0.5400	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7070	0.6548	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1680	0.1680	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0770	0.0728	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3392	0.3391	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.3870	0.4050	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4210	0.3904	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3328	0.3329	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0280	0.7800	0.9288	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686555
playerID	686555
playerName	Isaac Collins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Kyle Isbel (664728) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 35

All-history rows before 20260517: 35

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2703

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.171	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.171	3.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.333	0.396	0.333
predicted_BB	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	1.000	0.800	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	1.000	1.143	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.500	0.419	0.250
predicted_R	0.371	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.371	0.000	0.629	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.414	0.667	0.252	0.000
predicted_SO	0.771	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	1.000	-0.771	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.171	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.004
predicted_3B	0.043	0.014
predicted_AB	3.249	0.078
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.213	0.013
predicted_H	0.755	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.359	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.231	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000
predicted_SO	0.781	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.249	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.209	-0.004
predicted_H	0.718	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.053	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.044
predicted_R	0.328	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.211	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.053
predicted_SO	0.796	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.3889	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3143	0.3438	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.0938	0.1875
season	0.60	35	-	111.000	30.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	13.000	7.000	27.000	0.2703	0.3306	0.4144	0.2703	0.0270	0.0901	0.0631	0.2432

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0640
predicted_AB	3.3690
predicted_AVG	0.2541
predicted_BB	0.2330
predicted_H	0.8560
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3121
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.2630
predicted_SLG	0.3951
predicted_SO	0.7960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1520	0.1465	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0640	0.0427	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1710	3.3690	3.2486	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2541	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2330	0.2129	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8560	0.7551	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0650	0.0559	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3121	0.3120	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.3400	0.3589	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2630	0.2308	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3951	0.3950	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.7960	0.7808	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	664728
playerID	664728
playerName	Kyle Isbel
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Lane Thomas (657041) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1912

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.091	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.091	2.000	-0.091	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.500	0.142	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.591	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.591	0.000	0.409	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.591	1.000	0.409	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.333	0.175	0.167
predicted_R	0.182	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.227	1.000	-0.227	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.235	0.500	0.098	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.773	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.773	0.000	-0.773	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.091	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.591	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.182	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.267	-
predicted_SO	0.773	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.015	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.118	0.027
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.577	-0.014
predicted_H	0.546	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.217	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.278	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.000
predicted_SO	0.788	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.015	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.118	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.565	-0.012
predicted_H	0.519	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.044	0.000
predicted_HR	0.053	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.020
predicted_R	0.198	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.254	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.223	-0.044
predicted_SO	0.804	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.0769	0.2353	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.0769	0.2308	0.3077
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	8.000	0.2143	0.3784	0.3214	0.2143	0.0357	0.1429	0.2500	0.2857
season	0.60	22	-	68.000	13.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	13.000	17.000	0.1912	0.3253	0.2353	0.1912	0.0147	0.0735	0.1912	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0400
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1640
predicted_AVG	0.1918
predicted_BB	0.5520
predicted_H	0.6070
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3145
predicted_R	0.2760
predicted_RBI	0.3090
predicted_SLG	0.2671
predicted_SO	0.8130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0400	0.0149	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0910	3.1640	3.1182	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1918	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5910	0.5520	0.5765	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6070	0.5461	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0640	0.0552	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3145	0.3148	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1820	0.2760	0.2170	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3090	0.2782	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2670	0.2671	0.2670	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7730	0.8130	0.7879	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	657041
playerID	657041
playerName	Lane Thomas
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Vinnie Pasquantino (686469) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2025

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.093	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_3B	0.047	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_AB	3.791	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.791	4.000	0.209	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.202	0.250	0.048	0.000
predicted_BB	0.465	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.465	0.000	-0.465	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.767	1.000	0.233	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.250	-0.037	0.000
predicted_R	0.419	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	0.000	0.581	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	1.000	1.488	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.250	-0.094	0.000
predicted_SO	0.837	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.837	0.000	-0.837	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-
predicted_3B	0.047	-
predicted_AB	3.791	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.465	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	0.837	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.085	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.038	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.800	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.460	-0.005
predicted_H	0.789	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.092	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.000
predicted_R	0.413	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.502	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.322	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.805	-0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.085	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.451	-0.009
predicted_H	0.750	-0.039
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.087	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.015
predicted_R	0.377	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.458	-0.044
predicted_SLG	0.309	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.821	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.091)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.2308	0.3023	0.3077	0.2308	0.0256	0.1282	0.1026	0.1538
season	0.60	43	-	163.000	33.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	22.000	18.000	20.000	36.000	0.2025	0.2872	0.3436	0.2024	0.0307	0.1350	0.1227	0.2209

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.8120
predicted_AVG	0.2145
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_H	0.8170
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_OBP	0.2976
predicted_R	0.4050
predicted_RBI	0.5190
predicted_SLG	0.3215
predicted_SO	0.7590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0930	0.0730	0.0848	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0470	0.0260	0.0384	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7910	3.8120	3.7996	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2145	0.2142	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4650	0.4520	0.4597	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8170	0.7893	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0940	0.0916	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2976	0.2978	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.4050	0.4133	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5190	0.5019	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3215	0.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8370	0.7590	0.8050	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.202

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686469
playerID	686469
playerName	Vinnie Pasquantino
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	KC
teamID	12

Carter Jensen (695600) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 37

All-history rows before 20260517: 37

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2302

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.405	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.405	3.000	0.595	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.000	-0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.784	0.000	-0.784	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.000	-0.327	0.000
predicted_R	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_SO	1.135	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.135	0.000	0.865	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.405	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.383	-
predicted_SO	1.135	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.371	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.516	0.030
predicted_H	0.751	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.000
predicted_R	0.454	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.433	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.383	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.069	-0.066

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.371	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.505	-0.010
predicted_H	0.714	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.088	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.025
predicted_R	0.414	-0.039
predicted_RBI	0.395	-0.038
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.050
predicted_SO	1.090	0.021

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.2857	0.4211	0.4286	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.2857	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	12.000	0.1935	0.3333	0.2581	0.1935	0.0000	0.0968	0.2258	0.3871
season	0.60	37	-	126.000	29.000	4.000	6.000	19.000	17.000	18.000	42.000	0.2302	0.3265	0.4048	0.2302	0.0476	0.1508	0.1429	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1940
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3210
predicted_AVG	0.2357
predicted_BB	0.5600
predicted_H	0.7830
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.3397
predicted_R	0.4460
predicted_RBI	0.4520
predicted_SLG	0.3827
predicted_SO	0.9700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.1940	0.1424	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4050	3.3210	3.3714	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2357	0.2359	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.5600	0.5156	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7830	0.7512	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0970	0.0928	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3397	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.4460	0.4538	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4520	0.4328	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3830	0.3827	0.3829	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1350	0.9700	1.0689	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	695600
playerID	695600
playerName	Carter Jensen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 46

All-history rows before 20260517: 46

System season_avg: 0.3090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3094

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.935	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.935	3.000	-0.935	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.326	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.309	0.333	0.024	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	1.000	-0.065	-1.000
predicted_H	1.230	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.217	1.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	0.848	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.406	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.500	0.117	0.000
predicted_R	0.478	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.478	0.000	0.522	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.575	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.503	0.333	0.831	1.000
predicted_SO	0.761	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.761	0.000	-0.761	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.935	-
predicted_AVG	0.326	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	1.230	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.406	-
predicted_R	0.478	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.575	-
predicted_SO	0.761	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.908	-0.027
predicted_AVG	0.326	0.000
predicted_BB	0.518	0.018
predicted_H	1.244	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.233	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.406	0.000
predicted_R	0.504	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.576	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.575	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.908	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.303	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.507	-0.010
predicted_H	1.183	-0.061
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.222	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.383	-0.024
predicted_R	0.460	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.526	-0.050
predicted_SLG	0.546	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.765	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.301 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.935

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.3684	0.4783	0.7368	0.3684	0.1053	0.2105	0.2105	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	15.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	5.000	0.3947	0.4773	0.7632	0.3947	0.1053	0.1842	0.1579	0.1316
season	0.60	46	-	181.000	56.000	12.000	1.000	7.000	23.000	22.000	23.000	35.000	0.3094	0.3835	0.5028	0.3094	0.0387	0.1271	0.1271	0.1934

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.8700
predicted_AVG	0.3263
predicted_BB	0.5430
predicted_H	1.2630
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2360
predicted_OBP	0.4065
predicted_R	0.5410
predicted_RBI	0.5850
predicted_SLG	0.5754
predicted_SO	0.7340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2610	0.2290	0.2478	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9350	3.8700	3.9082	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3260	0.3263	0.3261	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5430	0.5178	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2300	1.2630	1.2436	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2360	0.2325	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4060	0.4065	0.4062	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4780	0.5410	0.5040	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5850	0.5762	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5750	0.5754	0.5752	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7610	0.7340	0.7499	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.309

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Stephen Kolek (663568) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 2

All-history rows before 20260517: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	3.000	1.500	0.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	4.000	5.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	4.500	5.000	2.500	2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.100	4.200	-0.900	0.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	4.500	6.000	-0.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	10.200	8.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	3.000	6.7500	1.1250	0.7500	0.8438	0.2812	0.8438	0.2812
last_10	0.35	2	10.200	8.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	3.000	6.7500	1.1250	0.7500	0.8438	0.2812	0.8438	0.2812
season	0.20	2	10.200	8.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	3.000	6.7500	1.1250	0.7500	0.8438	0.2812	0.8438	0.2812

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7040
predicted_ER	2.6580
predicted_ERA	4.9252
predicted_H	4.4250
predicted_HR	0.8410
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.4820
predicted_WHIP	1.2620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.7040	2.5487	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.6580	3.5327	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9252	4.9252	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.4250	6.1034	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.8410	0.9446	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.4820	4.1678	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2620	1.2620	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	7
R	4
ER	4
BB	3
SO	4
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	103

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	53
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663568
playerID	663568
playerName	Stephen Kolek
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Daniel Lynch IV (663738) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.928	1.000	0.072	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.389	2.000	-0.389	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	1.9286	1.5000	0.2143	0.8571	0.6429	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	7.000	3.000	13.000	1.000	2.8929	1.0714	0.3214	0.7500	0.3214	1.3929	0.1071
season	0.20	18	18.100	4.000	9.000	6.000	25.000	1.000	1.9636	0.8182	0.2182	0.4909	0.3273	1.3636	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4160
predicted_ER	0.3760
predicted_ERA	3.3857
predicted_H	0.8570
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1570
predicted_WHIP	1.2733

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4160	0.1687	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3760	0.1525	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3857	3.3857	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8570	0.3475	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0960	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1570	1.0637	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2733	1.2733	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.96
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	663738
playerID	663738
playerName	Daniel Lynch IV
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.632	0.000	0.368	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.789	2.000	-0.789	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.916	1.000	0.084	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.895	2.000	-0.895	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	1.8000	1.4000	0.2000	1.0000	0.4000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	12.000	0.9000	1.2000	0.1000	0.6000	0.6000	1.2000
season	0.20	19	18.100	7.000	15.000	12.000	17.000	3.4364	1.4727	0.3818	0.8182	0.6545	0.9273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4390
predicted_ER	0.3550
predicted_ERA	3.1916
predicted_H	0.8900
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0350
predicted_WHIP	1.3284

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4390	0.7725	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3550	0.1439	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1916	3.1916	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8900	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0350	0.4196	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3284	1.3284	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.44
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

John Schreiber (670167) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.526	0.000	0.474	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.842	0.000	-0.842	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.753	0.100	-0.553	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.8000	1.4000	0.2000	1.0000	0.4000	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	9.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	1.8000	1.3000	0.2000	0.9000	0.4000	0.3000	0.1000
season	0.20	19	17.100	7.000	16.000	10.000	7.000	3.000	3.6346	1.5000	0.4038	0.9231	0.5769	0.4038	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_ER	0.3000
predicted_ERA	3.3686
predicted_H	0.7570
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5730
predicted_WHIP	1.3446

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3220	0.7290	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3000	0.1199	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3686	3.3686	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7570	0.3026	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1140	0.0456	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5730	0.8293	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3446	1.3446	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	1
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	1
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	670167
playerID	670167
playerName	John Schreiber
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Mears (683232) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	1.722	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.722	2.000	2.278	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.767	1.000	-0.567	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.5000	2.0000	0.5000	1.7500	0.2500	0.7500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	2.2500	1.3750	0.2500	0.8750	0.5000	0.7500	0.1250
season	0.20	18	15.200	5.000	13.000	8.000	12.000	1.000	2.8723	1.3404	0.3191	0.8298	0.5106	0.7660	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2650
predicted_ER	0.2990
predicted_ERA	3.8854
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6070
predicted_WHIP	1.4443

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2650	0.1032	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2990	1.3374	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8854	3.8854	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.7350	2.1177	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6070	0.8469	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4443	1.4443	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	683232
playerID	683232
playerName	Nick Mears
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Home Team: STL

Alec Burleson (676475) · BATTER · 1B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2807

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.262	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.262	0.000	0.738	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.071	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.071	3.000	0.929	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.333	0.119	0.067
predicted_BB	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.143	1.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.250	0.058	0.150
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.786	2.000	1.214	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.426	1.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.450	0.333	0.750	0.867
predicted_SO	0.762	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.762	1.000	1.238	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.071	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.405	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.426	-
predicted_SO	0.762	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.249	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.095	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.290	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.350	-0.055
predicted_H	1.152	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.000
predicted_R	0.466	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.638	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.426	0.000
predicted_SO	0.814	0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.249	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.095	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.002
predicted_BB	0.355	0.006
predicted_H	1.195	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.107	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.017
predicted_R	0.498	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.681	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.006
predicted_SO	0.801	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.292 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.071

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.3636	0.3636	0.4091	0.3636	0.0000	0.1364	0.0000	0.2273
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	12.000	0.2791	0.2889	0.3953	0.2791	0.0233	0.1163	0.0233	0.2791
season	0.60	42	-	171.000	48.000	11.000	6.000	33.000	21.000	17.000	32.000	0.2807	0.3421	0.4503	0.2807	0.0351	0.1930	0.0994	0.1871

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2300
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1300
predicted_AVG	0.2897
predicted_BB	0.2710
predicted_H	1.1970
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.3316
predicted_R	0.4180
predicted_RBI	0.6630
predicted_SLG	0.4261
predicted_SO	0.8880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2620	0.2300	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0710	4.1300	4.0952	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2897	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4050	0.2710	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.1970	1.1516	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1100	0.1041	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3316	0.3318	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4180	0.4664	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6630	0.6376	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4260	0.4261	0.4260	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7620	0.8880	0.8137	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676475
playerID	676475
playerName	Alec Burleson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	STL
teamID	26

Thomas Saggese (695336) · BATTER · LF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

System season_avg: 0.1500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.250	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.150	0.333	0.100	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.199	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.203	0.333	0.047	-0.083
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.183	0.333	0.067	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.167	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	0.000	0.833	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.158	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.199	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.219	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.349	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.158	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.204	-0.018
predicted_H	0.466	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.199	-0.000
predicted_R	0.335	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.000
predicted_SO	1.131	-0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.349	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.144	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.207	0.003
predicted_H	0.484	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.194	-0.005
predicted_R	0.358	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.149	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.206	-0.013
predicted_SO	1.113	-0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.145 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.0714	0.0714	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.3571
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	12.000	0.0645	0.0645	0.0645	0.0645	0.0000	0.0000	0.3871
season	0.60	18	-	60.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	21.000	0.1500	0.2031	0.1833	0.1500	0.0167	0.0667	0.3500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3770
predicted_AVG	0.1576
predicted_BB	0.1720
predicted_H	0.5320
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.1988
predicted_R	0.3390
predicted_RBI	0.1570
predicted_SLG	0.2194
predicted_SO	1.0670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0970	0.1060	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3770	3.3487	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1580	0.1576	0.1579	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.1720	0.2042	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5320	0.4664	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1990	0.1988	0.1989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3390	0.3351	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1570	0.1396	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2190	0.2194	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.0670	1.1313	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	695336
playerID	695336
playerName	Thomas Saggese
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	STL
teamID	26

Masyn Winn (691026) · BATTER · SS · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 40

All-history rows before 20260517: 40

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2517

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3510

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.872	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.775	3.000	-0.775	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	-0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.950	0.000	-0.950	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.000	-0.076	0.250
predicted_R	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.450	1.000	-0.450	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.425	1.000	-0.425	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_SO	0.846	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.825	1.000	0.175	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	3.872	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	0.011
predicted_3B	0.049	-0.002
predicted_AB	3.871	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	-0.021
predicted_H	0.844	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.094	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.448	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.344	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	0.827	-0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	3.871	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.317	0.005
predicted_H	0.876	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.094	0.000
predicted_HR	0.032	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.285	-0.014
predicted_R	0.479	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.368	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.332	-0.015
predicted_SO	0.814	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.872

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.3043	0.3500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.1842	0.2326	0.2895	0.1842	0.0000	0.0790	0.0526	0.2105
season	0.60	39	-	151.000	38.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	17.000	18.000	13.000	33.000	0.2517	0.3176	0.3510	0.2517	0.0066	0.1126	0.0861	0.2185

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2330
predicted_3B	0.0460
predicted_AB	3.8700
predicted_AVG	0.2388
predicted_BB	0.2810
predicted_H	0.9240
predicted_HBP	0.0940
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.2990
predicted_R	0.4280
predicted_RBI	0.3790
predicted_SLG	0.3470
predicted_SO	0.7990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.2330	0.2164	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0460	0.0490	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8720	3.8700	3.8712	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2388	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2810	0.3119	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9240	0.8444	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0940	0.0940	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0308	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2990	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.4280	0.4482	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3790	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3470	0.3470	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	0.7990	0.8269	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	691026
playerID	691026
playerName	Masyn Winn
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	STL
teamID	26

Nathan Church (701675) · BATTER · RF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 35

All-history rows before 20260517: 35

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2538

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	1.000	-0.171	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	3.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.667	0.246	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.943	2.000	1.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.285	0.667	0.215	-0.167
predicted_R	0.457	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	1.000	0.543	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.392	1.000	0.108	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.771	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	0.000	-0.771	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.256	-
predicted_BB	0.171	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.373	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.725	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.182	0.011
predicted_H	0.875	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.000
predicted_R	0.452	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.000
predicted_SO	0.748	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.725	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.185	0.003
predicted_H	0.908	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.280	-0.015
predicted_R	0.483	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.353	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.354	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.736	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2703	0.3077	0.3514	0.2703	0.0000	0.0541	0.0541	0.1351
season	0.60	35	-	130.000	33.000	6.000	4.000	15.000	16.000	6.000	27.000	0.2538	0.2847	0.3923	0.2539	0.0308	0.1154	0.0461	0.2077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7410
predicted_AVG	0.2563
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_H	0.9590
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_OBP	0.2946
predicted_R	0.4440
predicted_RBI	0.3610
predicted_SLG	0.3735
predicted_SO	0.7130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1990	0.1821	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.7410	3.7247	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2560	0.2563	0.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1710	0.2000	0.1825	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9590	0.8752	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0780	0.0732	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2946	0.2948	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.4440	0.4518	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3610	0.3303	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3730	0.3735	0.3732	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.7130	0.7479	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	701675
playerID	701675
playerName	Nathan Church
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	STL
teamID	26

Victor Scott II (687363) · BATTER · CF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 37

All-history rows before 20260517: 37

System season_avg: 0.1960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1963

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.054	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.054	0.000	0.946	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.892	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.892	3.000	0.108	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.196	0.667	0.470	0.000
predicted_BB	0.216	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.216	0.000	0.784	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.108	1.000	-0.108	-1.000
predicted_H	0.530	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.568	2.000	1.432	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.256	0.667	0.494	0.083
predicted_R	0.351	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.351	0.000	0.649	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.189	1.000	1.811	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.339	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.271	0.667	0.729	0.333
predicted_SO	0.865	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.865	0.000	-0.865	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.054	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.892	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.216	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.351	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.339	-
predicted_SO	0.865	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.959	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.219	0.003
predicted_H	0.582	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.368	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.242	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.840	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.959	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.223	0.004
predicted_H	0.603	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.260	-0.014
predicted_R	0.394	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.259	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.317	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.826	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2143	0.2667	0.4286	0.2143	0.0714	0.1429	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.2414	0.2903	0.3793	0.2414	0.0345	0.0690	0.0690	0.2414
season	0.60	37	-	107.000	21.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	13.000	8.000	32.000	0.1963	0.2564	0.2710	0.1963	0.0187	0.0654	0.0748	0.2991

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.0640
predicted_AVG	0.2161
predicted_BB	0.2240
predicted_H	0.6620
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.2734
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.2770
predicted_SLG	0.3386
predicted_SO	0.8000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0540	0.0740	0.0618	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8920	3.0640	2.9591	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2161	0.2160	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2160	0.2240	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6620	0.5815	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0990	0.0874	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2734	0.2732	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3510	0.3950	0.3682	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2770	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3390	0.3386	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8650	0.8000	0.8396	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.196

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	687363
playerID	687363
playerName	Victor Scott II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	STL
teamID	26

JJ Wetherholt (802139) · BATTER · 2B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2395

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.884	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.884	5.000	0.116	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.535	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.535	1.000	0.465	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.930	0.000	-0.930	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.167	-0.161	0.033
predicted_R	0.767	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.767	0.000	-0.767	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.413	0.000	-0.413	0.000
predicted_SO	0.814	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.814	1.000	-0.814	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.884	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.535	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.767	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	0.814	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.889	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.530	-0.005
predicted_H	0.921	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.246	-
predicted_HR	0.162	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.000
predicted_R	0.728	-0.039
predicted_RBI	0.495	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.000
predicted_SO	0.828	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.006
predicted_BB	0.539	0.008
predicted_H	0.956	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.246	0.000
predicted_HR	0.167	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.338	-0.025
predicted_R	0.778	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.529	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.012
predicted_SO	0.815	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.884

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.4000	0.2500	0.0500	0.1000	0.1500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	6.000	8.000	0.2308	0.3750	0.3077	0.2308	0.0256	0.1538	0.1538	0.2051
season	0.60	43	-	167.000	40.000	5.000	8.000	22.000	33.000	23.000	35.000	0.2395	0.3614	0.4132	0.2395	0.0479	0.1317	0.1377	0.2096

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8960
predicted_AVG	0.2404
predicted_BB	0.5240
predicted_H	0.9370
predicted_HBP	0.2460
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.3632
predicted_R	0.6730
predicted_RBI	0.5030
predicted_SLG	0.3902
predicted_SO	0.8490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1160	0.0850	0.1032	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8840	3.8960	3.8889	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2404	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5350	0.5240	0.5305	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9370	0.9211	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2460	0.2460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1650	0.1621	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3632	0.3631	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7670	0.6730	0.7283	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5030	0.4954	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3902	0.3901	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8140	0.8490	0.8284	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	802139
playerID	802139
playerName	JJ Wetherholt
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	STL
teamID	26

Iván Herrera (671056) · BATTER · C · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2651

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	1.000	-0.267	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.689	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.689	3.000	0.311	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.333	-0.265	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.644	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.644	1.000	0.356	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.978	1.000	-0.978	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.398	0.500	-0.198	-0.300
predicted_R	0.556	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	1.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.410	0.667	-0.410	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.756	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.756	0.000	-0.756	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.689	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.644	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.367	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.391	-
predicted_SO	0.756	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.761	0.072
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.566	-0.078
predicted_H	1.008	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.162	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.000
predicted_R	0.545	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.000
predicted_SO	0.721	-0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.761	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.003
predicted_BB	0.575	0.009
predicted_H	1.046	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.162	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.007
predicted_R	0.583	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.423	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.008
predicted_SO	0.710	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.3333	0.2857	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.0476
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.3171	0.3556	0.3902	0.3171	0.0000	0.0732	0.0488	0.1707
season	0.60	45	-	166.000	44.000	12.000	4.000	20.000	25.000	29.000	34.000	0.2651	0.3981	0.4096	0.2651	0.0241	0.1205	0.1747	0.2048

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2510
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8640
predicted_AVG	0.2751
predicted_BB	0.4550
predicted_H	1.0630
predicted_HBP	0.1620
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3675
predicted_R	0.5300
predicted_RBI	0.4180
predicted_SLG	0.3910
predicted_SO	0.6720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.2510	0.2604	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6890	3.8640	3.7612	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2751	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6440	0.4550	0.5660	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.0630	1.0084	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1620	0.1620	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0621	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3670	0.3675	0.3672	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.5300	0.5453	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4180	0.3957	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3910	0.3910	0.3910	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7560	0.6720	0.7213	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	671056
playerID	671056
playerName	Iván Herrera
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	STL
teamID	26

Jordan Walker (691023) · BATTER · DH · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.3110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3114

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	0.767	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.884	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.884	4.000	-0.884	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.311	0.250	0.022	0.083
predicted_BB	0.442	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.442	0.000	0.558	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.209	1.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.302	0.000	-0.302	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.250	0.117	0.250
predicted_R	0.791	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.791	0.000	0.209	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.791	0.000	1.209	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.603	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.605	0.250	0.062	0.417
predicted_SO	1.163	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.163	1.000	-0.163	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.884	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.442	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.791	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.603	-
predicted_SO	1.163	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.917	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000
predicted_BB	0.422	-0.020
predicted_H	1.165	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.279	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.000
predicted_R	0.748	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.603	0.000
predicted_SO	1.117	-0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.917	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.429	0.007
predicted_H	1.209	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.288	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.377	0.003
predicted_R	0.799	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.769	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.594	-0.009
predicted_SO	1.099	-0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.309 HR/AB=0.074

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.884

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.3636	0.3913	0.7273	0.3636	0.0909	0.2273	0.0454	0.2273
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	12.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	5.000	9.000	0.3077	0.3864	0.6410	0.3077	0.0769	0.1795	0.1282	0.2308
season	0.60	43	-	167.000	52.000	10.000	13.000	34.000	34.000	19.000	50.000	0.3114	0.3830	0.6048	0.3114	0.0778	0.2036	0.1138	0.2994

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2810
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9640
predicted_AVG	0.3105
predicted_BB	0.3930
predicted_H	1.2310
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.2920
predicted_OBP	0.3743
predicted_R	0.6860
predicted_RBI	0.7630
predicted_SLG	0.6033
predicted_SO	1.0500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.2810	0.2527	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8840	3.9640	3.9168	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3105	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4420	0.3930	0.4219	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.2310	1.1655	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2920	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3743	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7910	0.6860	0.7480	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.7630	0.7199	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6030	0.6033	0.6031	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1630	1.0500	1.1167	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.311

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	691023
playerID	691023
playerName	Jordan Walker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	STL
teamID	26

Nolan Gorman (669357) · BATTER · 3B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 38

All-history rows before 20260517: 38

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2302

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.658	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.658	4.000	0.342	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.500	0.270	0.000
predicted_BB	0.447	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.447	1.000	-0.447	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.842	2.000	1.158	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.600	0.192	-0.100
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.345	0.500	0.155	0.000
predicted_SO	1.184	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.184	1.000	-0.184	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.658	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.447	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.335	-
predicted_SO	1.184	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.659	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.472	0.025
predicted_H	0.843	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.352	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.407	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.000
predicted_SO	1.145	-0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.659	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.479	0.008
predicted_H	0.875	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.327	-0.006
predicted_R	0.377	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.435	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.006
predicted_SO	1.127	-0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.2778	0.2778	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	13.000	0.2500	0.3571	0.3056	0.2500	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.3611
season	0.60	38	-	139.000	32.000	4.000	4.000	22.000	14.000	17.000	45.000	0.2302	0.3082	0.3453	0.2302	0.0288	0.1583	0.1223	0.3237

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6610
predicted_AVG	0.2437
predicted_BB	0.5090
predicted_H	0.8920
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.3329
predicted_R	0.3290
predicted_RBI	0.4330
predicted_SLG	0.3351
predicted_SO	1.0880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1150	0.1090	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6580	3.6610	3.6592	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2437	0.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4470	0.5090	0.4720	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8920	0.8431	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0720	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3329	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.3290	0.3523	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4330	0.4074	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3350	0.3351	0.3350	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1840	1.0880	1.1453	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669357
playerID	669357
playerName	Nolan Gorman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	STL
teamID	26

Andre Pallante (669467) · PITCHER · Starter · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 8

All-history rows before 20260517: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.375	3.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.625	3.000	-1.625	-2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.875	4.000	-1.875	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.263	5.000	-0.163	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	4.125	4.000	-1.125	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	13.000	24.000	11.000	26.000	4.000	4.2805	1.2805	0.4756	0.8780	0.4024	0.9512	0.1463
last_10	0.35	8	42.100	21.000	39.000	19.000	33.000	5.000	4.4646	1.3701	0.4961	0.9213	0.4488	0.7795	0.1181
season	0.20	8	42.100	21.000	39.000	19.000	33.000	5.000	4.4646	1.3701	0.4961	0.9213	0.4488	0.7795	0.1181

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1460
predicted_ER	2.5390
predicted_ERA	4.2838
predicted_H	4.8510
predicted_HR	0.7170
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.9000
predicted_WHIP	1.3120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.1460	2.5837	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.5390	1.7503	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2838	4.2838	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.8510	3.9024	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7170	0.8620	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.9000	3.9263	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3120	1.3120	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	3
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.46
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	85
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	51
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669467
playerID	669467
playerName	Andre Pallante
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

George Soriano (666277) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.714	2.000	-0.714	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.781	1.000	0.219	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.762	0.000	-0.762	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.1538	1.6154	0.4615	1.3846	0.2308	0.6923	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	11.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	2.8929	1.6071	0.3214	1.1786	0.4286	0.8571	0.2143
season	0.20	21	19.200	8.000	15.000	10.000	16.000	3.000	3.6610	1.2712	0.4068	0.7627	0.5085	0.8136	0.1525

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3690
predicted_ER	0.4380
predicted_ERA	3.9405
predicted_H	1.0480
predicted_HR	0.2100
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8750
predicted_WHIP	1.4162

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3690	0.1523	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4380	0.1808	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9405	3.9405	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0480	0.4325	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2100	0.0867	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8750	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4162	1.4162	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.66
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	666277
playerID	666277
playerName	George Soriano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

JoJo Romero (668941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	1.000	0.591	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.364	0.000	1.636	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.818	0.000	2.182	3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.814	1.100	0.186	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.864	1.000	0.136	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	1.6875	0.9375	0.1875	0.5625	0.3750	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	2.000	2.7931	1.2414	0.3103	0.7241	0.5172	1.3448	0.2069
season	0.20	22	22.100	8.000	18.000	9.000	19.000	3.000	3.2239	1.2090	0.3582	0.8060	0.4030	0.8508	0.1343

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4030
predicted_ER	0.3710
predicted_ERA	3.3430
predicted_H	0.8110
predicted_HR	0.1160
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0450
predicted_WHIP	1.2140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4030	0.7456	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3710	1.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3430	3.3430	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.8110	2.0673	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1160	0.0494	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0450	1.0192	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2140	1.2140	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.22
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668941
playerID	668941
playerName	JoJo Romero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Riley O'Brien (676617) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.936	1.000	0.064	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.136	0.000	-1.136	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	3.6000	0.8000	0.4000	0.6000	0.2000	1.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	6.000	13.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	5.5862	1.5517	0.6207	1.3448	0.2069	1.1379	0.1035
season	0.20	22	22.000	6.000	18.000	2.000	25.000	1.000	2.4545	0.9091	0.2727	0.8182	0.0909	1.1364	0.0454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_ER	0.4590
predicted_ERA	4.1351
predicted_H	0.9220
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0530
predicted_WHIP	1.2087

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2860	0.1214	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4590	0.1948	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1351	4.1351	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9220	0.3914	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1320	0.0560	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0530	0.4470	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2087	1.2087	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676617
playerID	676617
playerName	Riley O'Brien
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Ryne Stanek (592773) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.727	1.000	-0.727	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.741	1.000	-0.541	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.227	2.000	-1.227	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	4.1538	1.1538	0.4615	0.4615	0.6923	1.6154	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	4.000	5.000	6.000	13.000	1.000	4.1538	1.2692	0.4615	0.5769	0.6923	1.5000	0.1154
season	0.20	22	19.100	14.000	20.000	16.000	27.000	2.000	6.5172	1.8621	0.7241	1.0345	0.8276	1.3965	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4270
predicted_ER	0.3950
predicted_ERA	4.3826
predicted_H	0.6480
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9780
predicted_WHIP	1.3250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4270	0.1755	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3950	0.7514	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3826	4.3826	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6480	0.2663	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1180	0.0485	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9780	0.4019	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3250	1.3250	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	592773
playerID	592773
playerName	Ryne Stanek
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

20260517_LAD@LAA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.546651, "home_win_probability": 0.453349, "away_win_probability": 0.546651, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 LAA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 LAA", "confidence": 0.546651, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 LAA", "winner": "LAD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 LAA", "winner": "LAD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	LAD 4 - 3 LAA	LAD	0.547	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	LAD 4 - 2 LAA	LAD	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away LAD	5-5	0.500	4	3.60	4	3W	average	average
Home LAA	3-7	0.300	2.50	4.80	-23	4L	cold	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away LAD	27-18	0.600	72	1.600	True
Home LAA	16-29	0.356	-38	-0.844	True
Signal	-	-	-2.444	-2.811	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	LAD @ LAA	6 - 0	LAD	6	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target LAD	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target LAA	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized LAD	33	9	6	0	4	2	8
Player finalized LAA	32	8	3	0	1	2	10
Player model fractional LAD	32.34	8.17	5.60	1.27	4.73	3.65	7.40
Player model fractional LAA	31.90	6.29	3.45	0.80	2.72	3.64	9.94
Simulation box LAD	35	8	4	2	4	0	8
Simulation box LAA	32	5	2	1	2	5	12

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away LAD	Starter	Roki Sasaki	5	2	5	5	3	5.00	1.51	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Jack Dreyer	1	0	3	0	0	2.45	1.10	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Kyle Hurt	1	0	2	0	2	2.89	1.15	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Tanner Scott	1	0	2	0	0	2.83	0.94	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Alex Vesia	1	0	0	0	0	4.94	1.38	True
Home LAA	Starter	Grayson Rodriguez	3	1	6	5	0	4.20	1.32	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Ryan Zeferjahn	2.10	0	0	0	0	3.44	1.12	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Sam Bachman	1.20	0	0	0	0	3.54	1.00	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	José Fermin	1	3	1	3	0	4.40	1.25	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Kirby Yates	1	0	1	0	0	4.44	1.33	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: LAD

Miguel Rojas (500743) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 16

All-history rows before 20260517: 16

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.188	3.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.667	-0.333	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.062	2.000	-1.062	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.667	-0.346	-0.667
predicted_R	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.667	-0.451	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.333	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.312	0.000	1.688	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.289	-
predicted_BB	0.067	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.267	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.408	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.459	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.086	0.019
predicted_H	0.860	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.288	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.323	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.408	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.370	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.459	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.089	0.002
predicted_H	0.913	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.011	0.000
predicted_HR	0.072	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.034
predicted_R	0.319	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.359	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.360	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.3529	0.3529	0.5000	0.3529	0.0294	0.1471	0.0000	0.0294
season	0.60	15	-	51.000	17.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3462	0.4510	0.3333	0.0196	0.0980	0.0196	0.0980

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5710
predicted_AVG	0.2890
predicted_BB	0.1240
predicted_H	1.0320
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.3163
predicted_R	0.3270
predicted_RBI	0.3870
predicted_SLG	0.4077
predicted_SO	0.4400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1690	0.1894	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.5710	3.4586	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2890	0.2890	0.2890	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0670	0.1240	0.0865	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	1.0320	0.8599	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0820	0.0675	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3163	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2670	0.3270	0.2876	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3870	0.3233	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4080	0.4077	0.4079	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.4400	0.3697	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	500743
playerID	500743
playerName	Miguel Rojas
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Tucker (663656) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.279	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.721	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.721	3.000	0.279	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.581	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.581	1.000	-0.581	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.930	0.000	-0.930	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.250	-0.351	-0.250
predicted_R	0.698	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.698	1.000	-0.698	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.442	0.000	-0.442	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	0.837	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.837	0.000	-0.837	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.721	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.581	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.698	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.414	-
predicted_SO	0.837	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.319	0.040
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.630	-0.091
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.588	0.007
predicted_H	0.883	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.074	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	-0.000
predicted_R	0.674	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.312	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.000
predicted_SO	0.787	-0.050

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.319	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.630	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.005
predicted_BB	0.604	0.015
predicted_H	0.938	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.074	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.364	-0.006
predicted_R	0.748	0.074
predicted_RBI	0.347	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.400	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.767	-0.020

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.4375	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1875	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	8.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	8.000	6.000	0.2759	0.4474	0.4483	0.2759	0.0000	0.0690	0.2759	0.2069
season	0.60	43	-	160.000	40.000	12.000	4.000	19.000	30.000	25.000	36.000	0.2500	0.3511	0.4000	0.2500	0.0250	0.1187	0.1562	0.2250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3760
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5000
predicted_AVG	0.2536
predicted_BB	0.5990
predicted_H	0.8880
predicted_HBP	0.0740
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.3698
predicted_R	0.6400
predicted_RBI	0.3160
predicted_SLG	0.4141
predicted_SO	0.7160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2790	0.3760	0.3187	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7210	3.5000	3.6304	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2536	0.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5810	0.5990	0.5884	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8880	0.8833	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0740	0.0740	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0610	0.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3698	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6980	0.6400	0.6742	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3160	0.3125	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4140	0.4141	0.4140	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8370	0.7160	0.7874	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	663656
playerID	663656
playerName	Kyle Tucker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Freddie Freeman (518692) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2635

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3840

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.884	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.884	4.000	0.116	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.000	-0.013	0.250
predicted_BB	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.419	1.000	-0.419	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.023	0.000	-0.023	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.200	-0.089	0.050
predicted_R	0.372	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.372	1.000	0.628	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.465	0.000	-0.465	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.413	0.000	-0.163	0.250
predicted_SO	0.558	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.558	1.000	-0.558	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.884	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.419	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.372	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.387	-
predicted_SO	0.558	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.804	-0.080
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.464	0.045
predicted_H	0.916	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.000
predicted_R	0.384	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.387	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.566	0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.804	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.009
predicted_BB	0.476	0.012
predicted_H	0.973	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.086	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.005
predicted_R	0.426	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.366	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.013
predicted_SO	0.551	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.884

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.2941	0.2353	0.0000	0.0000	0.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	0.2121	0.3500	0.3939	0.2121	0.0303	0.0606	0.2121	0.1212
season	0.60	43	-	167.000	44.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	20.000	16.000	18.000	24.000	0.2635	0.3387	0.4132	0.2635	0.0239	0.1198	0.1078	0.1437

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2450
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6880
predicted_AVG	0.2471
predicted_BB	0.5280
predicted_H	0.9110
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.3433
predicted_R	0.4010
predicted_RBI	0.3300
predicted_SLG	0.3868
predicted_SO	0.5780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2450	0.2515	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0130	0.0189	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8840	3.6880	3.8038	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2471	0.2470	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4190	0.5280	0.4636	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9110	0.9163	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0810	0.0804	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3433	0.3431	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3720	0.4010	0.3839	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3300	0.3300	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3870	0.3868	0.3869	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5580	0.5780	0.5662	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	518692
playerID	518692
playerName	Freddie Freeman
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2468

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	1.000	-0.022	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.854	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.511	4.000	0.489	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.500	-0.247	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.756	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.689	2.000	-0.689	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	2.000	-0.867	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.667	-0.379	-0.667
predicted_R	0.707	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.644	2.000	-0.644	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.489	5.000	-0.489	-5.000
predicted_SLG	0.461	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.449	1.250	-0.449	-1.250
predicted_SO	1.122	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.022	0.000	1.978	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.854	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.756	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.707	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.461	-
predicted_SO	1.122	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	0.016
predicted_3B	0.040	0.016
predicted_AB	3.879	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.736	-0.020
predicted_H	0.878	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.073	-
predicted_HR	0.147	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.708	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.647	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.461	0.000
predicted_SO	1.104	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.879	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.755	0.019
predicted_H	0.933	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.073	0.000
predicted_HR	0.157	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.364	-0.001
predicted_R	0.785	0.077
predicted_RBI	0.717	0.071
predicted_SLG	0.443	-0.018
predicted_SO	1.075	-0.029

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.854

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.2381	0.3600	0.5714	0.2381	0.0476	0.2857	0.1905	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	8.000	8.000	10.000	0.2308	0.3750	0.4359	0.2308	0.0256	0.2308	0.2051	0.2564
season	0.60	41	-	158.000	39.000	9.000	1.000	7.000	22.000	29.000	31.000	46.000	0.2468	0.3795	0.4494	0.2468	0.0443	0.1392	0.1962	0.2911

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2580
predicted_3B	0.0640
predicted_AB	3.9140
predicted_AVG	0.2421
predicted_BB	0.7070
predicted_H	0.9480
predicted_HBP	0.0730
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.3654
predicted_R	0.7100
predicted_RBI	0.6990
predicted_SLG	0.4609
predicted_SO	1.0780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2200	0.2580	0.2356	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0640	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8540	3.9140	3.8787	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2421	0.2420	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7560	0.7070	0.7359	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9480	0.8785	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0730	0.0730	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1570	0.1470	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3654	0.3652	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7070	0.7100	0.7082	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6990	0.6466	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4610	0.4609	0.4610	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1220	1.0780	1.1039	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	5
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAD
teamID	14

Teoscar Hernández (606192) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 41

All-history rows before 20260517: 41

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2685

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.634	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.634	4.000	0.366	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.250	0.232	0.250
predicted_BB	0.366	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	1.000	1.024	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.400	0.159	0.100
predicted_R	0.537	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.537	1.000	0.463	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.537	2.000	-0.537	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.416	0.250	0.084	0.250
predicted_SO	1.122	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.122	1.000	-1.122	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.634	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.366	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.537	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.467	-
predicted_SO	1.122	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.667	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000
predicted_BB	0.326	-0.040
predicted_H	1.032	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.097	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.000
predicted_R	0.549	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.556	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.467	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.084	-0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.001
predicted_BB	0.334	0.008
predicted_H	1.096	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.097	0.000
predicted_HR	0.133	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.357	-0.003
predicted_R	0.609	0.060
predicted_RBI	0.617	0.061
predicted_SLG	0.461	-0.006
predicted_SO	1.056	-0.028

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.299 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.4000	0.4286	0.6500	0.4000	0.0500	0.2500	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	11.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.5000	0.3333	0.0278	0.1389	0.0556	0.3056
season	0.60	41	-	149.000	40.000	7.000	5.000	22.000	22.000	15.000	46.000	0.2685	0.3413	0.4161	0.2685	0.0336	0.1477	0.1007	0.3087

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2310
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7150
predicted_AVG	0.2980
predicted_BB	0.2670
predicted_H	1.1070
predicted_HBP	0.0970
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_OBP	0.3605
predicted_R	0.5660
predicted_RBI	0.5940
predicted_SLG	0.4668
predicted_SO	1.0290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.2310	0.1953	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6340	3.7150	3.6668	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2980	0.2980	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3660	0.2670	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.1070	1.0315	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0970	0.0970	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1310	0.1245	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3605	0.3602	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5370	0.5660	0.5488	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5940	0.5559	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4670	0.4668	0.4669	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1220	1.0290	1.0843	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	606192
playerID	606192
playerName	Teoscar Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Dalton Rushing (687221) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

System season_avg: 0.2840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2836

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2840

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.526	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.526	4.000	0.474	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.284	0.000	-0.034	0.250
predicted_BB	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.000	-0.101	0.250
predicted_R	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.842	0.000	0.158	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.420	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.627	0.000	0.373	1.000
predicted_SO	1.105	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.105	2.000	-0.105	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.526	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.211	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.684	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.420	-
predicted_SO	1.105	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.578	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.217	0.006
predicted_H	0.746	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.093	-
predicted_HR	0.174	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.621	-0.063
predicted_RBI	0.486	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.420	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.105	-0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.578	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.223	0.006
predicted_H	0.792	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.093	0.000
predicted_HR	0.185	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.024
predicted_R	0.688	0.068
predicted_RBI	0.539	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.406	-0.014
predicted_SO	1.076	-0.029

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1053	0.1500	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	13.000	0.1622	0.2250	0.1622	0.1622	0.0000	0.0811	0.0541	0.3513
season	0.60	19	-	67.000	19.000	2.000	7.000	16.000	13.000	4.000	21.000	0.2836	0.3514	0.6269	0.2836	0.1045	0.2388	0.0597	0.3134

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6690
predicted_AVG	0.2295
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	0.8420
predicted_HBP	0.0930
predicted_HR	0.1980
predicted_OBP	0.2914
predicted_R	0.5110
predicted_RBI	0.5480
predicted_SLG	0.4196
predicted_SO	1.1040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.0970	0.1021	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5260	3.6690	3.5783	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2295	0.2298	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2110	0.2280	0.2172	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8420	0.7456	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0930	0.0930	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1980	0.1739	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2914	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6840	0.5110	0.6207	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5480	0.4858	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4200	0.4196	0.4199	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1050	1.1040	1.1046	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.284

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687221
playerID	687221
playerName	Dalton Rushing
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Max Muncy (571970) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2759

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.452	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.452	4.000	0.548	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.250	0.224	0.250
predicted_BB	0.548	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.548	1.000	-0.548	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.952	1.000	1.048	1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.400	0.125	0.100
predicted_R	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.810	3.000	0.190	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	1.000	2.548	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.530	1.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.559	0.250	0.691	1.000
predicted_SO	0.952	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.952	1.000	-0.952	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.452	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.548	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.810	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.530	-
predicted_SO	0.952	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.473	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.526	-0.022
predicted_H	0.834	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.258	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.859	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.492	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.530	0.000
predicted_SO	0.933	-0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.473	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.540	0.014
predicted_H	0.886	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.275	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.003
predicted_R	0.953	0.094
predicted_RBI	0.546	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.524	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.909	-0.024

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.079

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.6111	0.2778	0.1111	0.2222	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	10.000	4.000	9.000	0.2121	0.2973	0.4848	0.2121	0.0909	0.1818	0.1212	0.2727
season	0.60	42	-	145.000	40.000	5.000	12.000	19.000	34.000	23.000	40.000	0.2759	0.3750	0.5586	0.2759	0.0828	0.1310	0.1586	0.2759

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5040
predicted_AVG	0.2606
predicted_BB	0.4940
predicted_H	0.9130
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2850
predicted_OBP	0.3522
predicted_R	0.9310
predicted_RBI	0.5400
predicted_SLG	0.5302
predicted_SO	0.9060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1190	0.0870	0.1060	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4520	3.5040	3.4731	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2606	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5480	0.4940	0.5261	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9130	0.8340	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2850	0.2583	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3522	0.3521	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8100	0.9310	0.8591	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5400	0.4925	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5300	0.5302	0.5301	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9520	0.9060	0.9333	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	571970
playerID	571970
playerName	Max Muncy
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Hyeseong Kim (808975) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 29

All-history rows before 20260517: 29

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2584

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.069	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.069	4.000	-0.069	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.075	0.333
predicted_BB	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.310	1.000	-0.310	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.793	0.000	0.207	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.200	0.010	0.133
predicted_R	0.379	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.379	1.000	-0.379	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.337	0.000	-0.004	0.333
predicted_SO	0.793	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.793	2.000	0.207	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.069	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.310	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.285	-
predicted_R	0.379	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.307	-
predicted_SO	0.793	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	0.001
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.161	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.296	-0.014
predicted_H	0.651	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000
predicted_R	0.379	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.273	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.000
predicted_SO	0.824	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.161	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.304	0.008
predicted_H	0.692	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.037	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.002
predicted_R	0.420	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.303	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.298	-0.009
predicted_SO	0.803	-0.021

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	0.2059	0.2500	0.2647	0.2059	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.2941
season	0.60	29	-	89.000	23.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	11.000	9.000	23.000	0.2584	0.3232	0.3371	0.2584	0.0112	0.1011	0.1011	0.2584

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0710
predicted_3B	0.0350
predicted_AB	3.3100
predicted_AVG	0.2265
predicted_BB	0.2730
predicted_H	0.7500
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2852
predicted_R	0.3790
predicted_RBI	0.3110
predicted_SLG	0.3069
predicted_SO	0.8750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0690	0.0710	0.0698	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0350	0.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0690	3.3100	3.1611	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2265	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3100	0.2730	0.2959	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7500	0.6511	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0346	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2850	0.2852	0.2851	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3790	0.3790	0.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3110	0.2733	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3070	0.3069	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7930	0.8750	0.8243	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-SS
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	808975
playerID	808975
playerName	Hyeseong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.3050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3054

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	4.000	0.289	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.305	0.250	-0.055	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.133	1.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.400	-0.109	-0.150
predicted_R	0.578	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.578	2.000	-0.578	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.867	1.000	-0.867	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.533	0.250	-0.283	0.000
predicted_SO	0.822	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.822	2.000	0.178	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.578	-
predicted_RBI	0.830	-
predicted_SLG	0.491	-
predicted_SO	0.822	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.687	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.320	0.031
predicted_H	0.893	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.081	-
predicted_HR	0.245	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.000
predicted_R	0.584	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.842	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.491	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.822	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.687	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.007
predicted_BB	0.328	0.008
predicted_H	0.949	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.081	0.000
predicted_HR	0.261	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.014
predicted_R	0.647	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.934	0.092
predicted_SLG	0.512	0.021
predicted_SO	0.801	-0.021

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.070

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.1176	0.2857	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.2353	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	5.000	12.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3171	0.6389	0.2222	0.1389	0.3333	0.1111	0.1667
season	0.60	45	-	167.000	51.000	8.000	10.000	39.000	26.000	13.000	37.000	0.3054	0.3587	0.5329	0.3054	0.0599	0.2335	0.0778	0.2216

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6510
predicted_AVG	0.2502
predicted_BB	0.3650
predicted_H	0.9130
predicted_HBP	0.0810
predicted_HR	0.2530
predicted_OBP	0.3315
predicted_R	0.5920
predicted_RBI	0.8600
predicted_SLG	0.4907
predicted_SO	0.8220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1780	0.1150	0.1522	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.6510	3.6865	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2502	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.3650	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9130	0.8935	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0810	0.0810	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2530	0.2453	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3315	0.3318	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5780	0.5920	0.5837	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8300	0.8600	0.8423	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4910	0.4907	0.4909	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8220	0.8220	0.8220	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.305

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Roki Sasaki (808963) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 7

All-history rows before 20260517: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.286	1.000	0.714	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	3.143	3.000	-1.143	-1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.571	6.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.743	5.000	0.257	0.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	4.429	5.000	0.571	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.200	15.000	30.000	11.000	22.000	7.000	5.4730	1.6622	0.6081	1.2162	0.4460	0.8919	0.2838
last_10	0.35	7	33.200	22.000	39.000	16.000	31.000	9.000	5.8812	1.6337	0.6535	1.1584	0.4753	0.9208	0.2673
season	0.20	7	33.200	22.000	39.000	16.000	31.000	9.000	5.8812	1.6337	0.6535	1.1584	0.4753	0.9208	0.2673

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1490
predicted_ER	2.8280
predicted_ERA	4.9971
predicted_H	5.5630
predicted_HR	1.1070
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.6950
predicted_WHIP	1.5143

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.1490	2.5967	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.8280	2.3924	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9971	4.9971	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.5630	4.2147	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	1.1070	1.0507	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.0000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.6950	4.8554	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5143	1.5143	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	5
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	99

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	5.88
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	808963
playerID	808963
playerName	Roki Sasaki
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Jack Dreyer (676263) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.990	1.000	0.010	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	1.800	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7895	0.0000	0.6316	0.1579	0.7895	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	0.000	8.000	2.000	13.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8824	0.0000	0.7059	0.1765	1.1471	0.0000
season	0.20	20	21.200	5.000	15.000	6.000	24.000	1.000	2.0769	0.9692	0.2308	0.6923	0.2769	1.1077	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3110
predicted_ER	0.2910
predicted_ERA	2.4475
predicted_H	0.8700
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0320
predicted_WHIP	1.1046

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3110	0.1315	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2910	0.1231	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4475	2.4475	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8700	1.5222	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0790	0.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.0320	2.1678	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1046	1.1046	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	676263
playerID	676263
playerName	Jack Dreyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Hurt (669165) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 12

All-history rows before 20260517: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.167	1.000	1.833	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	0.000	0.667	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.6000	0.4000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.4000	0.2000	1.2000
season	0.20	12	12.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	16.000	0.7500	0.6667	0.0833	0.5000	0.1667	1.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_ER	0.3210
predicted_ERA	2.8899
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0710
predicted_WHIP	1.1478

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3480	1.3989	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3210	0.1168	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8899	2.8899	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8000	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0880	0.0320	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0710	1.6620	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1478	1.1478	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	669165
playerID	669165
playerName	Kyle Hurt
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.150	0.000	-0.150
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.450	0.000	-0.450
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.870	1.000	0.130
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	2.000	1.100

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	1.0345	0.1035
season	0.20	20	18.100	3.000	9.000	2.000	18.000	2.000	1.4727	0.6000	0.1636	0.4909	0.1091	0.9818	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_ER	0.3140
predicted_ERA	2.8269
predicted_H	0.6830
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9770
predicted_WHIP	0.9421

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2590	0.1050	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3140	0.1273	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8269	2.8269	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6830	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0405	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9770	1.5852	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9421	0.9421	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.47
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Vesia (681911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.421	1.000	-0.421	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.721	1.000	0.279	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.105	3.000	-1.105	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	3.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	7.3636	1.6364	0.8182	1.0909	0.5454	1.6364
last_10	0.35	10	7.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	11.000	6.4286	1.5714	0.7143	0.8571	0.7143	1.5714
season	0.20	19	15.100	5.000	8.000	8.000	21.000	2.9348	1.0435	0.3261	0.5217	0.5217	1.3696

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3080
predicted_ER	0.3660
predicted_ERA	4.9352
predicted_H	0.6150
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7890
predicted_WHIP	1.3842

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3080	0.1193	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3660	0.1418	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9352	4.9352	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6150	0.2382	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0540	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7890	0.3056	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3842	1.3842	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681911
playerID	681911
playerName	Alex Vesia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Home Team: LAA

Nolan Schanuel (694384) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 41

All-history rows before 20260517: 41

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2515

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.976	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.976	4.000	0.024	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	-0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_SO	0.707	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.707	0.000	1.293	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.976	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.293	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.341	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.352	-
predicted_SO	0.707	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.948	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	0.000
predicted_H	0.934	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.337	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.325	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.000
predicted_SO	0.736	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.948	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.287	-0.006
predicted_H	0.874	-0.060
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.048	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.274	-0.025
predicted_R	0.300	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.289	-0.036
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.752	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.976

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.2564	0.2927	0.3590	0.2564	0.0000	0.0256	0.0513	0.2308
season	0.60	41	-	163.000	41.000	10.000	3.000	20.000	14.000	12.000	29.000	0.2515	0.3034	0.3681	0.2515	0.0184	0.1227	0.0736	0.1779

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2540
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9070
predicted_AVG	0.2442
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.2988
predicted_R	0.3320
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.3525
predicted_SO	0.7790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.2540	0.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9760	3.9070	3.9479	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2442	0.2441	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2930	0.2940	0.2934	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9540	0.9339	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0550	0.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2988	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3410	0.3320	0.3373	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3330	0.3253	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3520	0.3525	0.3522	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7070	0.7790	0.7364	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	694384
playerID	694384
playerName	Nolan Schanuel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Logan O'Hoppe (681351) · BATTER · C · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 25

All-history rows before 20260517: 25

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2073

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.280	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.280	4.000	0.720	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.250	0.043	0.000
predicted_BB	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.680	1.000	0.320	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.250	-0.070	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.292	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.256	0.250	-0.006	0.000
predicted_SO	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.840	0.000	0.160	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.280	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.440	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.360	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.292	-
predicted_SO	0.840	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.046	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.317	0.037
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.405	-0.035
predicted_H	0.654	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.079	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.382	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.231	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.292	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.844	0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.046	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.317	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	-0.035
predicted_BB	0.396	-0.009
predicted_H	0.612	-0.042
predicted_HBP	0.079	0.000
predicted_HR	0.051	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.035
predicted_R	0.340	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.206	-0.026
predicted_SLG	0.245	-0.047
predicted_SO	0.862	0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	11.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.2812	0.1875	0.0312	0.0312	0.0938	0.3438
season	0.60	25	-	82.000	17.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	9.000	11.000	21.000	0.2073	0.3196	0.2561	0.2073	0.0122	0.0976	0.1341	0.2561

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3780
predicted_AVG	0.2195
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_H	0.7410
predicted_HBP	0.0790
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.3059
predicted_R	0.4180
predicted_RBI	0.2660
predicted_SLG	0.2918
predicted_SO	0.8500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0400	0.0570	0.0465	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2800	3.3780	3.3173	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2195	0.2198	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4400	0.3480	0.4050	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7410	0.6537	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0790	0.0790	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0610	0.0542	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3059	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3600	0.4180	0.3821	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2660	0.2313	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2920	0.2918	0.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8400	0.8500	0.8438	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681351
playerID	681351
playerName	Logan O'Hoppe
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAA
teamID	13

Josh Lowe (666139) · BATTER · LF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 31

All-history rows before 20260517: 31

System season_avg: 0.1650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1650

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.323	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.323	2.000	0.677	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.250	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.165	0.500	0.085	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.548	1.000	0.452	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.225	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.216	0.500	0.034	-0.250
predicted_R	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.291	0.500	-0.041	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.065	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.065	0.000	-0.065	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.032	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.323	-
predicted_AVG	0.176	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.225	-
predicted_R	0.226	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.267	-
predicted_SO	1.065	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.341	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.195	0.001
predicted_H	0.536	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.225	0.000
predicted_R	0.216	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.223	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.000
predicted_SO	1.069	0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.341	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.150	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.191	-0.004
predicted_H	0.501	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.071	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.196	-0.029
predicted_R	0.192	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.198	-0.025
predicted_SLG	0.226	-0.041
predicted_SO	1.092	0.023

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.150 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	12.000	0.0909	0.1176	0.0909	0.0909	0.0000	0.0000	0.0303	0.3636
season	0.60	31	-	103.000	17.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	6.000	33.000	0.1650	0.2162	0.2913	0.1651	0.0388	0.0971	0.0583	0.3204

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0500
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3700
predicted_AVG	0.1756
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_H	0.5920
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.2249
predicted_R	0.2010
predicted_RBI	0.2430
predicted_SLG	0.2674
predicted_SO	1.0760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0320	0.0500	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3230	3.3700	3.3412	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1760	0.1756	0.1758	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.1970	0.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.5920	0.5357	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0850	0.0758	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2250	0.2249	0.2250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2260	0.2010	0.2163	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2430	0.2228	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2670	0.2674	0.2672	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0650	1.0760	1.0693	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.165

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666139
playerID	666139
playerName	Josh Lowe
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Zach Neto (687263) · BATTER · SS · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 46

All-history rows before 20260517: 46

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2278

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.196	0.000	-0.196	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.913	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.913	5.000	0.087	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.200	0.022	0.050
predicted_BB	0.609	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.609	0.000	0.391	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.891	1.000	0.109	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.200	0.060	0.200
predicted_R	0.652	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.652	1.000	-0.652	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.406	0.200	-0.156	0.050
predicted_SO	1.413	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.413	2.000	0.587	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.913	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.609	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.652	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.435	-
predicted_SO	1.413	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.026	0.004
predicted_AB	3.869	-0.044
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.607	-0.002
predicted_H	0.952	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.092	-
predicted_HR	0.168	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.363	-0.000
predicted_R	0.644	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.442	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.435	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.345	-0.068

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.869	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.594	-0.013
predicted_H	0.890	-0.061
predicted_HBP	0.092	0.000
predicted_HR	0.157	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.333	-0.030
predicted_R	0.572	-0.072
predicted_RBI	0.393	-0.049
predicted_SLG	0.410	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.374	0.028

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.913

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.2778	0.4348	0.4444	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	6.000	11.000	0.2973	0.4000	0.5405	0.2973	0.0541	0.1351	0.1622	0.2973
season	0.60	46	-	180.000	41.000	9.000	1.000	7.000	20.000	30.000	28.000	65.000	0.2278	0.3396	0.4056	0.2278	0.0389	0.1111	0.1556	0.3611

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1400
predicted_3B	0.0310
predicted_AB	3.8070
predicted_AVG	0.2507
predicted_BB	0.6030
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HBP	0.0920
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_OBP	0.3626
predicted_R	0.6320
predicted_RBI	0.4450
predicted_SLG	0.4347
predicted_SO	1.2490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1960	0.1400	0.1728	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0310	0.0257	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9130	3.8070	3.8691	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2507	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6090	0.6030	0.6065	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9540	0.9517	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0920	0.0920	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1660	0.1683	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3626	0.3628	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6520	0.6320	0.6437	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4450	0.4421	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4350	0.4347	0.4349	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4130	1.2490	1.3451	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687263
playerID	687263
playerName	Zach Neto
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jorge Soler (624585) · BATTER · DH · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2237

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	2.000	-0.214	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.619	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.619	3.000	-0.619	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.667	-0.224	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.452	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.452	1.000	0.548	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.810	2.000	-0.810	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.750	-0.070	-0.500
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.441	1.333	-0.441	-1.333
predicted_SO	1.381	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.381	1.000	-0.381	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.619	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.452	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	1.381	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	0.038
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.634	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	-0.017
predicted_H	0.766	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.072	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.000
predicted_R	0.486	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.425	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.415	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.381	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.634	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.426	-0.009
predicted_H	0.717	-0.049
predicted_HBP	0.072	0.000
predicted_HR	0.117	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.027
predicted_R	0.432	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.378	-0.047
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.051
predicted_SO	1.410	0.029

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.4737
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	0.2000	0.3000	0.4000	0.2000	0.0286	0.0571	0.1143	0.4000
season	0.60	42	-	152.000	34.000	9.000	8.000	28.000	21.000	19.000	58.000	0.2237	0.3202	0.4408	0.2237	0.0526	0.1842	0.1250	0.3816

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3060
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6560
predicted_AVG	0.2203
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_H	0.8050
predicted_HBP	0.0720
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3087
predicted_R	0.4650
predicted_RBI	0.4470
predicted_SLG	0.4148
predicted_SO	1.3810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.3060	0.2515	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6190	3.6560	3.6341	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2203	0.2201	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4520	0.4110	0.4353	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8050	0.7665	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0720	0.0720	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1340	0.1257	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3087	0.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4650	0.4857	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4470	0.4251	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4148	0.4149	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3810	1.3810	1.3810	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	624585
playerID	624585
playerName	Jorge Soler
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAA
teamID	13

Yoán Moncada (660162) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 30

All-history rows before 20260517: 30

System season_avg: 0.1730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1735

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.267	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.267	2.000	-0.267	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.173	0.000	-0.173	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.567	0.000	-0.567	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.333	-0.046	-0.083
predicted_R	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.297	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SO	1.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.267	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.267	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.297	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.013	0.013
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.258	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.439	-0.061
predicted_H	0.653	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.037	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.246	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.197	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.297	0.000
predicted_SO	1.257	-0.076

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.013	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.258	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.429	-0.009
predicted_H	0.611	-0.042
predicted_HBP	0.037	0.000
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.013
predicted_R	0.219	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.175	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.263	-0.034
predicted_SO	1.284	0.027

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.3077	0.3571	0.3077	0.3077	0.0000	0.0000	0.0769	0.3077
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	12.000	0.1935	0.2188	0.1935	0.1935	0.0000	0.0000	0.0323	0.3871
season	0.60	30	-	98.000	17.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	15.000	40.000	0.1735	0.2957	0.2857	0.1735	0.0306	0.0816	0.1531	0.4082

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0320
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.2450
predicted_AVG	0.2125
predicted_BB	0.3420
predicted_H	0.6900
predicted_HBP	0.0370
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.2952
predicted_R	0.2130
predicted_RBI	0.2090
predicted_SLG	0.2972
predicted_SO	1.1390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0320	0.0125	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0180	0.0272	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2670	3.2450	3.2584	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2125	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3420	0.4385	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6900	0.6534	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0370	0.0370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0690	0.0635	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2952	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2670	0.2130	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2090	0.1974	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2970	0.2972	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.1390	1.2574	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.173

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	660162
playerID	660162
playerName	Yoán Moncada
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Mike Trout (545361) · BATTER · CF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2375

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.556	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	4.000	-1.556	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.000	0.263	0.500
predicted_BB	0.911	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.911	1.000	1.089	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.844	0.000	0.156	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.244	0.000	0.756	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.402	0.200	0.348	0.550
predicted_R	0.733	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.733	0.000	0.267	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.511	0.000	0.489	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.481	0.000	1.519	2.000
predicted_SO	1.178	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.178	1.000	-1.178	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.911	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.733	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	1.178	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.589	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.857	-0.054
predicted_H	0.754	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.155	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000
predicted_R	0.639	-0.094
predicted_RBI	0.351	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000
predicted_SO	1.193	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.589	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.838	-0.018
predicted_H	0.706	-0.049
predicted_HBP	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.145	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.010
predicted_R	0.568	-0.071
predicted_RBI	0.312	-0.039
predicted_SLG	0.356	-0.036
predicted_SO	1.219	0.025

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	0.1579	0.3043	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.2105	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	14.000	0.1944	0.3256	0.3056	0.1944	0.0278	0.0556	0.1944	0.3889
season	0.60	45	-	160.000	38.000	6.000	11.000	23.000	33.000	41.000	53.000	0.2375	0.4020	0.4813	0.2375	0.0688	0.1437	0.2562	0.3312

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6370
predicted_AVG	0.2169
predicted_BB	0.7790
predicted_H	0.7890
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.1630
predicted_OBP	0.3592
predicted_R	0.5060
predicted_RBI	0.3670
predicted_SLG	0.3924
predicted_SO	1.2150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1440	0.1375	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5560	3.6370	3.5894	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2169	0.2170	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9110	0.7790	0.8565	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7890	0.7543	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1630	0.1554	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3592	0.3591	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7330	0.5060	0.6394	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3670	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3924	0.3922	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1780	1.2150	1.1933	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	545361
playerID	545361
playerName	Mike Trout
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jo Adell (666176) · BATTER · RF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 46

All-history rows before 20260517: 46

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2655

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	1.000	-0.130	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.848	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.848	2.000	0.152	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.500	-0.266	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.152	2.000	-0.152	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.022	1.000	-1.022	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.750	-0.312	-0.750
predicted_R	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.587	2.000	-0.587	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.401	1.000	-0.401	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.957	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.957	1.000	1.043	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.848	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.152	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.348	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.413	-
predicted_SO	0.957	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.046
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.753	-0.095
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.207	0.055
predicted_H	0.855	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.107	-
predicted_HR	0.113	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.317	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.611	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000
predicted_SO	0.985	0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.753	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.203	-0.004
predicted_H	0.800	-0.055
predicted_HBP	0.107	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.061
predicted_R	0.282	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.543	-0.068
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.068
predicted_SO	1.006	0.021

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.848

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	0.1875	0.3000	0.3125	0.1875	0.0000	0.2500	0.1875	0.3750
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	8.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	0.2500	0.3421	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.2188	0.0938	0.3438
season	0.60	46	-	177.000	47.000	6.000	6.000	27.000	16.000	7.000	44.000	0.2655	0.3125	0.4011	0.2655	0.0339	0.1525	0.0396	0.2486

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2430
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6170
predicted_AVG	0.2464
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HBP	0.1070
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.3145
predicted_R	0.2720
predicted_RBI	0.6400
predicted_SLG	0.4129
predicted_SO	1.0260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.2430	0.1764	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8480	3.6170	3.7532	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2464	0.2462	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1520	0.2870	0.2074	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8910	0.8550	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1070	0.1070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1180	0.1133	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3145	0.3148	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3480	0.2720	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6400	0.6105	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4130	0.4129	0.4130	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9570	1.0260	0.9853	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666176
playerID	666176
playerName	Jo Adell
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Adam Frazier (624428) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 17

All-history rows before 20260517: 17

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2600

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.125	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.941	0.000	1.059	4.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.260	-	-0.010	-
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.327	-	-0.077	-
predicted_R	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.440	-	0.060	-
predicted_SO	0.938	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.882	0.000	1.118	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.125	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.688	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.375	-
predicted_SO	0.938	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.055	-0.007
predicted_AB	3.187	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	-0.034
predicted_H	0.619	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000
predicted_R	0.618	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.254	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.375	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.917	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.055	0.000
predicted_AB	3.187	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.039
predicted_BB	0.273	-0.006
predicted_H	0.579	-0.040
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.051	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.246	-0.023
predicted_R	0.550	-0.069
predicted_RBI	0.226	-0.028
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.937	0.020

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.0769	0.0769	0.1538	0.0769	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2308
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	10.000	0.1875	0.1875	0.3438	0.1875	0.0000	0.0625	0.0000	0.3125
season	0.60	16	-	50.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	11.000	5.000	15.000	0.2600	0.3273	0.4400	0.2600	0.0200	0.1000	0.1000	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2310
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.3040
predicted_AVG	0.2213
predicted_BB	0.2150
predicted_H	0.7310
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.2690
predicted_R	0.4870
predicted_RBI	0.3000
predicted_SLG	0.3746
predicted_SO	0.8790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2310	0.2434	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0430	0.0554	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1250	3.3040	3.1871	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2213	0.2211	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.2150	0.2784	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.7310	0.6193	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0630	0.0545	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2690	0.2690	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6880	0.4870	0.6183	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.3000	0.2543	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3750	0.3746	0.3749	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9380	0.8790	0.9175	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	18.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	624428
playerID	624428
playerName	Adam Frazier
pos	2B
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Grayson Rodriguez (680570) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 0

All-history rows before 20260517: 0

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1260
predicted_ER	0.1550
predicted_ERA	4.1954
predicted_H	0.3130
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3180
predicted_WHIP	1.3167

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1260	0.0287	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1550	0.8078	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1954	4.1954	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	0.3130	3.9337	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0430	0.7823	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	0.3180	4.7073	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3167	1.3167	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	5
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	6
HR	1
BF	14
Pitches	53

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Ryan Zeferjahn (666171) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 15

All-history rows before 20260517: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.733	0.000	-0.733	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.320	1.000	0.780	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.933	2.000	-1.933	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	1.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	1.2273	0.6818	0.1364	0.2727	0.4091	1.6364
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	5.000	7.000	7.000	18.000	3.3750	1.0500	0.3750	0.5250	0.5250	1.3500
season	0.20	15	21.200	10.000	12.000	11.000	29.000	4.1538	1.0615	0.4615	0.5538	0.5077	1.3385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5610
predicted_ER	0.5100
predicted_ERA	3.4412
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5940
predicted_WHIP	1.1178

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5610	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5100	0.2157	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4412	3.4412	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9300	0.3933	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0930	0.0393	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5940	0.6740	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1178	1.1178	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	666171
playerID	666171
playerName	Ryan Zeferjahn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Bachman (696147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 15

All-history rows before 20260517: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.733	0.000	-0.733	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.153	1.100	0.047	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.467	1.000	-1.467	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	1.000	1.5882	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	1.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	13.200	6.000	8.000	5.000	14.000	2.000	3.9512	0.9512	0.4390	0.5854	0.3659	1.0244	0.1463
season	0.20	15	20.100	7.000	11.000	10.000	22.000	2.000	3.0984	1.0328	0.3443	0.5410	0.4918	1.0820	0.0984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3930
predicted_ER	0.4970
predicted_ERA	3.5351
predicted_H	0.8790
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3080
predicted_WHIP	1.0050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3930	0.1636	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4970	0.2069	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5351	3.5351	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8790	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1760	0.0733	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3080	0.5444	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0050	1.0050	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	696147
playerID	696147
playerName	Sam Bachman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

José Fermin (820862) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 8

All-history rows before 20260517: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	2.500	3.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	2.500	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.938	1.000	0.062	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	5.4000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000	0.6000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	8	8.200	4.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	4.1538	0.8077	0.4615	0.4615	0.3462	1.0385	0.1154
season	0.20	8	8.200	4.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	4.1538	0.8077	0.4615	0.4615	0.3462	1.0385	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2090
predicted_ER	0.2470
predicted_ERA	4.4023
predicted_H	0.4230
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4880
predicted_WHIP	1.2549

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2090	0.0702	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.2470	2.0759	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4023	4.4023	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.4230	2.1350	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0530	0.6821	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4880	0.8281	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2549	1.2549	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	820862
playerID	820862
playerName	José Fermin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Kirby Yates (489446) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 3

All-history rows before 20260517: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.733	1.000	0.267	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	2.000	-0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	2.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	6.7500	1.5000	0.7500	1.1250	0.3750	1.5000
last_10	0.35	3	2.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	6.7500	1.5000	0.7500	1.1250	0.3750	1.5000
season	0.20	3	2.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	6.7500	1.5000	0.7500	1.1250	0.3750	1.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1500
predicted_ER	0.1960
predicted_ERA	4.4399
predicted_H	0.3800
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.4000
predicted_WHIP	1.3343

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1500	0.0402	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1960	0.0525	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4399	4.4399	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3800	0.1018	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0470	0.0126	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4000	0.8392	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3343	1.3343	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	489446
playerID	489446
playerName	Kirby Yates
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

20260517_MIA@TB

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "MIA 4 - 5 TB", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Season quality guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "MIA 4 - 5 TB", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	MIA 4 - 5 TB	TB	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	MIA 4 - 6 TB	TB	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away MIA	5-5	0.500	4.50	5.10	-6	1W	average	weak
Home TB	7-3	0.700	4.90	3.80	11	1L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away MIA	21-25	0.457	-10	-0.217	True
Home TB	29-15	0.659	22	0.500	True
Signal	-	-	0.717	1.021	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	MIA @ TB	10 - 5	MIA	5	blowout
2026-05-15	MIA @ TB	2 - 7	TB	5	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target MIA	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target TB	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized MIA	33	9	4	0	2	2	8
Player finalized TB	33	9	4	0	2	1	8
Player model fractional MIA	32.07	7.24	3.96	0.79	3.43	3.06	8.03
Player model fractional TB	32.82	8.22	4.43	0.76	3.93	3.01	6.70
Simulation box MIA	34	7	4	0	4	2	9
Simulation box TB	33	8	6	2	6	5	9

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away MIA	Starter	Eury Pérez	5.10	3	6	4	2	4.54	1.30	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Calvin Faucher	1.10	0	2	0	2	2.96	1.19	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Tyler Phillips	1.10	0	1	0	0	2.46	1.24	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	John King	0	2	0	2	0	5.11	1.27	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Pete Fairbanks	0	1	0	2	1	5.66	1.41	True
Home TB	Starter	Drew Rasmussen	5.20	3	7	6	1	4.07	1.16	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Bryan Baker	1	0	0	0	0	3.70	1.34	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Cole Sulser	1	0	1	0	0	2.47	0.89	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Garrett Cleavinger	1	0	1	0	0	4.22	1.33	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Kevin Kelly	0.10	1	0	1	1	2.54	1.02	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: MIA

Jakob Marsee (805300) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2012

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.7500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.093	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.093	0.000	0.907	1.000
predicted_3B	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.070	1.000	-0.070	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.814	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.814	4.000	0.186	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.201	0.750	0.049	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.581	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.581	1.000	-0.581	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.767	3.000	0.233	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.800	-0.070	-0.550
predicted_R	0.581	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.581	2.000	0.419	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.302	0.000	0.698	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.317	1.250	0.183	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.116	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.116	1.000	-0.116	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-
predicted_3B	0.070	-
predicted_AB	3.814	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.581	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.581	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.418	-
predicted_SO	1.116	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.078	0.008
predicted_AB	3.797	-0.017
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.539	-0.042
predicted_H	0.875	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.088	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.579	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.337	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.000
predicted_SO	1.049	-0.067

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	0.000
predicted_3B	0.078	0.000
predicted_AB	3.797	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.534	-0.004
predicted_H	0.854	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.088	0.000
predicted_HR	0.112	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.027
predicted_R	0.555	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.323	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.379	-0.039
predicted_SO	1.058	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.814

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.6316	0.3684	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.5278	0.2778	0.0556	0.1667	0.1111	0.2500
season	0.60	43	-	164.000	33.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	25.000	25.000	48.000	0.2012	0.3196	0.3171	0.2012	0.0183	0.0793	0.1524	0.2927

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0900
predicted_3B	0.0900
predicted_AB	3.7720
predicted_AVG	0.2492
predicted_BB	0.4780
predicted_H	0.9400
predicted_HBP	0.0880
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.3472
predicted_R	0.5770
predicted_RBI	0.3610
predicted_SLG	0.4185
predicted_SO	0.9540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0930	0.0900	0.0918	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0700	0.0900	0.0782	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8140	3.7720	3.7967	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2492	0.2491	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5810	0.4780	0.5387	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9400	0.8752	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0880	0.0880	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1230	0.1153	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3472	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5810	0.5770	0.5794	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3610	0.3368	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4180	0.4185	0.4182	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1160	0.9540	1.0494	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.201

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	805300
playerID	805300
playerName	Jakob Marsee
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Christopher Morel (666624) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 11

All-history rows before 20260517: 11

System season_avg: 0.1580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1579

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	1.909	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.455	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.455	4.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.158	0.000	0.342	0.500
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.545	0.000	1.455	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.220	0.000	0.280	0.500
predicted_R	0.182	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.091	0.000	0.909	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.273	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.184	0.000	0.816	1.000
predicted_SO	1.182	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.182	0.000	-0.182	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.455	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.243	-
predicted_R	0.182	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.273	-
predicted_SO	1.182	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.510	0.054
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.000
predicted_BB	0.185	0.003
predicted_H	0.602	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.058	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.243	-0.000
predicted_R	0.221	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.226	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.000
predicted_SO	1.133	-0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.510	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.184	-0.002
predicted_H	0.588	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.058	0.000
predicted_HR	0.042	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.209	-0.034
predicted_R	0.211	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.216	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.235	-0.038
predicted_SO	1.143	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1667	0.1111	0.0556	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	0.1714	0.2162	0.2000	0.1714	0.0286	0.0286	0.3429
season	0.60	11	-	38.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	0.1579	0.2195	0.1842	0.1579	0.0263	0.0526	0.3421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1410
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6220
predicted_AVG	0.1904
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_H	0.6900
predicted_HBP	0.0580
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.2428
predicted_R	0.3010
predicted_RBI	0.2580
predicted_SLG	0.2730
predicted_SO	1.0330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1410	0.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4550	3.6220	3.5095	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1904	0.1901	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.1920	0.1853	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6900	0.6024	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0580	0.0580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2430	0.2428	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1820	0.3010	0.2208	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2580	0.2257	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2730	0.2730	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1820	1.0330	1.1334	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.158

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	666624
playerID	666624
playerName	Christopher Morel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Kyle Stowers (669065) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 23

All-history rows before 20260517: 23

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2069

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3450

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.783	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.783	5.000	0.217	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.200	-0.207	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.435	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.783	1.000	-0.783	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.200	-0.303	-0.200
predicted_R	0.478	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.478	1.000	-0.478	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.282	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.287	0.200	-0.287	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.130	3.000	-0.130	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.783	-
predicted_AVG	0.193	-
predicted_BB	0.435	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.280	-
predicted_R	0.478	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.282	-
predicted_SO	1.130	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.780	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.000
predicted_BB	0.417	-0.018
predicted_H	0.699	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.063	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.000
predicted_R	0.465	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.194	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.282	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.131	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.780	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.414	-0.004
predicted_H	0.681	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.063	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.019
predicted_R	0.445	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.186	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.271	-0.011
predicted_SO	1.141	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	13.000	0.1622	0.2619	0.2703	0.1622	0.0270	0.0541	0.1081	0.3513
season	0.60	23	-	87.000	18.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	10.000	26.000	0.2069	0.3030	0.2874	0.2069	0.0115	0.0345	0.1149	0.2989

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7760
predicted_AVG	0.1931
predicted_BB	0.3890
predicted_H	0.7290
predicted_HBP	0.0630
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.2799
predicted_R	0.4430
predicted_RBI	0.2000
predicted_SLG	0.2818
predicted_SO	1.1340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1370	0.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7830	3.7760	3.7803	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1930	0.1931	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4350	0.3890	0.4174	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7290	0.6987	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0630	0.0630	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0615	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2800	0.2799	0.2800	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4780	0.4430	0.4646	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2000	0.1938	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2820	0.2818	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1300	1.1340	1.1315	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF-LF
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	669065
playerID	669065
playerName	Kyle Stowers
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Owen Caissie (683357) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 32

All-history rows before 20260517: 32

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2041

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2040

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.062	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.062	1.000	0.938	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.000	-0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.268	0.500	-0.268	-0.500
predicted_R	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.327	0.000	-0.327	0.000
predicted_SO	1.375	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.375	0.000	-0.375	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.062	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.344	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	-
predicted_SO	1.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.023	-0.039
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.297	0.047
predicted_H	0.588	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.054	-
predicted_HR	0.098	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.000
predicted_R	0.360	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.536	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000
predicted_SO	1.277	-0.098

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.023	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.294	-0.003
predicted_H	0.573	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.054	0.000
predicted_HR	0.096	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.040
predicted_R	0.345	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.513	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.338	-0.034
predicted_SO	1.288	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	11.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.2727	0.4000	0.5455	0.2727	0.0909	0.3636	0.2727	0.3636
last_10	0.20	10	-	23.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	0.1739	0.3000	0.3043	0.1739	0.0435	0.2174	0.1739	0.3913
season	0.60	32	-	98.000	20.000	6.000	2.000	17.000	11.000	8.000	44.000	0.2041	0.2679	0.3265	0.2041	0.0204	0.1735	0.0816	0.4490

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1160
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	2.9620
predicted_AVG	0.2186
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_H	0.6470
predicted_HBP	0.0540
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_OBP	0.3017
predicted_R	0.3850
predicted_RBI	0.5920
predicted_SLG	0.3720
predicted_SO	1.1230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1160	0.1600	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0620	2.9620	3.0232	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2186	0.2188	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3700	0.2966	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6470	0.5877	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0540	0.0540	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1110	0.0982	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3017	0.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3440	0.3850	0.3599	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5920	0.5357	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3720	0.3720	0.3720	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3750	1.1230	1.2772	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	683357
playerID	683357
playerName	Owen Caissie
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Xavier Edwards (669364) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.3110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3114

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	4.000	0.289	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.311	0.250	-0.311	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.556	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	1.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.044	1.000	-0.044	-1.000
predicted_H	1.020	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.156	1.000	-1.156	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.401	0.400	-0.201	-0.200
predicted_R	0.711	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.711	1.000	-0.711	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.451	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.467	0.250	-0.467	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.467	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.371	-
predicted_R	0.711	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.451	-
predicted_SO	0.467	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.076	0.009
predicted_AB	3.729	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.547	-0.009
predicted_H	1.034	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.000
predicted_R	0.733	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.334	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.451	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.493	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.076	0.000
predicted_AB	3.729	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.542	-0.005
predicted_H	1.009	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.363	-0.008
predicted_R	0.702	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.320	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.431	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.497	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.4211	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	6.000	6.000	0.2368	0.3409	0.4737	0.2368	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579	0.1579
season	0.60	45	-	167.000	52.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	15.000	32.000	25.000	21.000	0.3114	0.4010	0.4671	0.3114	0.0239	0.0898	0.1497	0.1258

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0880
predicted_AB	3.7540
predicted_AVG	0.2810
predicted_BB	0.5340
predicted_H	1.0550
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.3712
predicted_R	0.7640
predicted_RBI	0.3400
predicted_SLG	0.4505
predicted_SO	0.5300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1780	0.1690	0.1743	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.0880	0.0756	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.7540	3.7287	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2810	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.5340	0.5470	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0550	1.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0970	0.0929	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3710	0.3712	0.3711	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7110	0.7640	0.7328	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3400	0.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4510	0.4505	0.4508	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4670	0.5300	0.4929	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.311

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	2
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	669364
playerID	669364
playerName	Xavier Edwards
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Liam Hicks (689414) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 36

All-history rows before 20260517: 36

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3030

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	5.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.400	-0.303	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.111	2.000	-1.111	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.400	-0.160	-0.200
predicted_R	0.583	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.583	1.000	-0.583	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.910	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.111	2.000	-1.111	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.530	0.400	-0.530	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.333	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	1.000	1.667	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.910	-
predicted_SLG	0.435	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.727	0.060
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.298	-0.008
predicted_H	0.984	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.065	-
predicted_HR	0.175	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.000
predicted_R	0.554	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.941	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.000
predicted_SO	0.377	0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.295	-0.003
predicted_H	0.959	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.065	0.000
predicted_HR	0.171	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.015
predicted_R	0.531	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.901	-0.040
predicted_SLG	0.416	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.380	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	0.000	2.000	11.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.2821	0.3488	0.4359	0.2821	0.0513	0.2821	0.0769	0.1026
season	0.60	36	-	132.000	40.000	3.000	9.000	40.000	21.000	11.000	12.000	0.3030	0.3600	0.5303	0.3030	0.0682	0.3030	0.0833	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8160
predicted_AVG	0.2709
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_H	1.0340
predicted_HBP	0.0650
predicted_HR	0.1830
predicted_OBP	0.3269
predicted_R	0.5120
predicted_RBI	0.9880
predicted_SLG	0.4354
predicted_SO	0.4420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.0740	0.0794	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.8160	3.7268	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2709	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.2860	0.2980	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0340	0.9837	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0650	0.0650	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1830	0.1752	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3270	0.3269	0.3270	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.5120	0.5545	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9100	0.9880	0.9413	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4350	0.4354	0.4352	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.4420	0.3767	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	689414
playerID	689414
playerName	Liam Hicks
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Leo Jiménez (677870) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 12

All-history rows before 20260517: 12

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.909	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.667	4.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.083	0.333
predicted_BB	0.273	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.000	0.141	0.500
predicted_R	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.281	0.000	0.385	0.667
predicted_SO	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.583	2.000	0.417	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.909	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.060	0.151
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.274	0.001
predicted_H	0.646	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.060	-
predicted_HR	0.036	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.000
predicted_R	0.308	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.198	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.675	0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.060	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.040
predicted_BB	0.272	-0.002
predicted_H	0.630	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.060	0.000
predicted_HR	0.035	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.039
predicted_R	0.295	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.189	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.277	-0.057
predicted_SO	0.681	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3000	0.3333	0.2778	0.0556	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.2069	0.2941	0.2414	0.2069	0.0345	0.1035	0.2414
season	0.60	11	-	32.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3243	0.2812	0.2500	0.0312	0.0938	0.2188

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1410
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3830
predicted_AVG	0.2456
predicted_BB	0.2770
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HBP	0.0600
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.3097
predicted_R	0.3820
predicted_RBI	0.2570
predicted_SLG	0.3335
predicted_SO	0.7590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1410	0.1070	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9090	3.3830	3.0602	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2456	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2770	0.2743	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.8310	0.6465	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0600	0.0600	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0490	0.0361	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3097	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.3820	0.3078	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2570	0.1978	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3335	0.3338	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.7590	0.6752	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	677870
playerID	677870
playerName	Leo Jiménez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Otto Lopez (672640) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.3390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3390

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	4.023	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.023	4.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.322	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.339	0.500	0.161	0.000
predicted_BB	0.159	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.159	0.000	-0.159	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_H	1.230	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.364	2.000	0.636	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.400	0.133	0.100
predicted_R	0.591	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.591	0.000	0.409	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	1.000	1.545	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.456	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.750	0.258	0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	0.000	0.273	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	4.023	-
predicted_AVG	0.322	-
predicted_BB	0.159	-
predicted_H	1.230	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.591	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.456	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.246	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.008
predicted_AB	4.000	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.322	0.000
predicted_BB	0.165	0.006
predicted_H	1.250	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.000
predicted_R	0.522	-0.069
predicted_RBI	0.479	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.456	0.000
predicted_SO	0.689	-0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.246	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.164	-0.001
predicted_H	1.219	-0.031
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.017
predicted_R	0.500	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.458	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.443	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.694	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.303 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 4.023

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.3158	0.3333	0.3684	0.3158	0.0000	0.1579	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	14.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3415	0.3488	0.4878	0.3415	0.0244	0.1220	0.0244	0.0976
season	0.60	44	-	177.000	60.000	11.000	2.000	4.000	20.000	26.000	7.000	32.000	0.3390	0.3670	0.4915	0.3390	0.0226	0.1130	0.0396	0.1808

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2400
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.9670
predicted_AVG	0.3224
predicted_BB	0.1740
predicted_H	1.2790
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.3495
predicted_R	0.4230
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.4563
predicted_SO	0.6330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2400	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0250	0.0368	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0230	3.9670	4.0001	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3220	0.3224	0.3222	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1590	0.1740	0.1651	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2300	1.2790	1.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0810	0.0804	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3495	0.3492	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5910	0.4230	0.5222	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4910	0.4786	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4560	0.4563	0.4561	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.6330	0.6885	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.339

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	672640
playerID	672640
playerName	Otto Lopez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Connor Norby (681393) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 39

All-history rows before 20260517: 39

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2290

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.359	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.359	5.000	-0.359	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.200	0.104	0.133
predicted_BB	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.769	1.000	0.231	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.200	0.171	0.300
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.359	1.000	-0.359	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.380	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.374	0.200	-0.041	0.133
predicted_SO	1.179	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.179	1.000	-0.179	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.359	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.380	-
predicted_SO	1.179	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.441	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.362	-0.023
predicted_H	0.748	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.090	-
predicted_HR	0.108	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.390	0.057
predicted_RBI	0.342	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.380	0.000
predicted_SO	1.135	-0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.441	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.359	-0.003
predicted_H	0.730	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.090	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.287	-0.023
predicted_R	0.374	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.327	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.355	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.144	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	13.000	0.2000	0.2821	0.3143	0.2000	0.0286	0.0857	0.0857	0.3714
season	0.60	39	-	131.000	30.000	7.000	4.000	14.000	13.000	15.000	46.000	0.2290	0.3289	0.3740	0.2290	0.0305	0.1069	0.1145	0.3512

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5620
predicted_AVG	0.2301
predicted_BB	0.3290
predicted_H	0.8200
predicted_HBP	0.0900
predicted_HR	0.1200
predicted_OBP	0.3099
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.3740
predicted_SLG	0.3802
predicted_SO	1.0690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1700	0.1754	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3590	3.5620	3.4406	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2301	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.3290	0.3625	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8200	0.7482	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0900	0.0900	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1200	0.1080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3099	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4750	0.3901	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3740	0.3417	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3800	0.3802	0.3801	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1790	1.0690	1.1348	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	681393
playerID	681393
playerName	Connor Norby
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Eury Pérez (691587) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 9

All-history rows before 20260517: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.667	3.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.889	3.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.556	3.000	-0.556	1.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.233	6.000	-0.133	-0.900
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.889	8.000	0.111	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	14.000	21.000	13.000	33.000	4.000	4.6098	1.2439	0.5122	0.7683	0.4756	1.2073	0.1463
last_10	0.35	9	47.100	26.000	41.000	24.000	53.000	8.000	4.9437	1.3732	0.5493	0.8662	0.5070	1.1197	0.1690
season	0.20	9	47.100	26.000	41.000	24.000	53.000	8.000	4.9437	1.3732	0.5493	0.8662	0.5070	1.1197	0.1690

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3930
predicted_ER	2.6930
predicted_ERA	4.5441
predicted_H	4.5500
predicted_HR	0.7790
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.8420
predicted_WHIP	1.3018

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.3930	2.1962	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.6930	2.8468	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5441	4.5441	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.5500	4.2745	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7790	0.8897	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.8420	4.9194	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3018	1.3018	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	6
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	92

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.94
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	51
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	691587
playerID	691587
playerName	Eury Pérez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.722	0.000	1.278	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	2.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.878	1.200	0.222	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	1.000	1.056	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.6000	0.1500	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.6562	0.4688	0.5625
season	0.20	18	17.200	6.000	12.000	13.000	17.000	3.0566	1.4151	0.3396	0.6793	0.7359	0.9623

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4760
predicted_ER	0.4140
predicted_ERA	2.9615
predicted_H	1.0230
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0470
predicted_WHIP	1.1921

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4760	1.3879	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4140	0.1663	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9615	2.9615	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0230	0.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0960	0.0386	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0470	1.6172	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1921	1.1921	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.06
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 13

All-history rows before 20260517: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.231	0.000	-0.231
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.385	0.000	-1.385
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.815	1.100	-0.715
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.923	1.000	-0.923

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	0.000	7.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.8750	0.1250	0.8750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	19.100	3.000	16.000	10.000	19.000	1.000	1.3966	1.3448	0.1552	0.8276	0.5172	0.9828	0.0517
season	0.20	13	25.000	3.000	18.000	13.000	25.000	1.000	1.0800	1.2400	0.1200	0.7200	0.5200	1.0000	0.0400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5730
predicted_ER	0.4340
predicted_ERA	2.4567
predicted_H	1.4040
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.5050
predicted_WHIP	1.2430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5730	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4340	0.1901	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4567	2.4567	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4040	0.6149	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1240	0.0543	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5050	1.2212	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2430	1.2430	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

John King (667463) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.238	3.000	1.762	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.333	3.000	1.667	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.762	0.000	-0.762	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	4.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	9.8182	1.6364	1.0909	1.0909	0.5454	0.5454	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	4.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	4.1538	0.9231	0.4615	0.5769	0.3462	0.5769	0.1154
season	0.20	21	18.200	5.000	7.000	7.000	16.000	2.000	2.4107	0.7500	0.2679	0.3750	0.3750	0.8571	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2240
predicted_ER	0.3140
predicted_ERA	5.1142
predicted_H	0.4790
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4490
predicted_WHIP	1.2711

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2240	0.0912	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3140	1.3133	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1142	5.1142	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.4790	1.3805	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0850	0.6273	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4490	0.7756	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2711	1.2711	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	2
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.41
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	667463
playerID	667463
playerName	John King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Pete Fairbanks (664126) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 11

All-history rows before 20260517: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.909	0.000	0.091	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.909	1.000	1.091	1.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.845	1.000	-0.845	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.364	2.000	-1.364	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	9.0000	1.7500	1.0000	0.7500	1.0000	1.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	10.000	9.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	10.0000	1.5556	1.1111	1.0000	0.5556	1.5556	0.1111
season	0.20	11	10.000	10.000	10.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	9.0000	1.5000	1.0000	1.0000	0.5000	1.5000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2320
predicted_ER	0.3020
predicted_ERA	5.6603
predicted_H	0.4440
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.5510
predicted_WHIP	1.4063

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2320	0.7331	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3020	0.7574	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6603	5.6603	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.4440	1.4592	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0530	0.0184	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5510	0.8439	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4063	1.4063	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	664126
playerID	664126
playerName	Pete Fairbanks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Home Team: TB

Jonny DeLuca (676356) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2561

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	5.000	-0.727	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.227	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.227	0.000	0.773	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.955	0.000	-0.955	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.000	-0.049	0.250
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_SO	0.818	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.818	3.000	0.182	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.227	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.366	-
predicted_SO	0.818	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	0.005
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.775	0.048
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.240	0.013
predicted_H	0.867	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.525	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.000
predicted_SO	0.867	0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.775	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.241	0.001
predicted_H	0.873	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.022
predicted_R	0.533	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.316	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.863	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.3333	0.2381	0.0000	0.0476	0.0952	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.3500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.2750
season	0.60	22	-	82.000	21.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	12.000	5.000	18.000	0.2561	0.2989	0.3659	0.2561	0.0122	0.0976	0.0610	0.2195

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2850
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.8560
predicted_AVG	0.2494
predicted_BB	0.2620
predicted_H	0.9620
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.2993
predicted_R	0.4930
predicted_RBI	0.3470
predicted_SLG	0.3661
predicted_SO	0.9490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.2850	0.2775	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	3.8560	3.7754	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2494	0.2492	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2270	0.2620	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9620	0.8670	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0530	0.0449	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2993	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.4930	0.5255	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3470	0.3114	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3660	0.3661	0.3660	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8180	0.9490	0.8671	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676356
playerID	676356
playerName	Jonny DeLuca
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Chandler Simpson (802415) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 40

All-history rows before 20260517: 40

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2963

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_3B	0.075	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_AB	4.050	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.050	4.000	0.950	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.250	0.104	0.150
predicted_BB	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.225	1.000	-0.225	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.200	1.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.400	0.071	0.000
predicted_R	0.525	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.525	1.000	0.475	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.225	1.000	0.775	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.340	0.250	0.060	0.150
predicted_SO	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.425	0.000	-0.425	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.025	-
predicted_3B	0.075	-
predicted_AB	4.050	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.225	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.525	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	0.425	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.032	0.006
predicted_3B	0.081	0.006
predicted_AB	4.049	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.239	0.014
predicted_H	1.160	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.000
predicted_R	0.594	0.069
predicted_RBI	0.302	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.000
predicted_SO	0.443	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.032	0.000
predicted_3B	0.081	0.000
predicted_AB	4.049	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.240	0.001
predicted_H	1.167	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.004
predicted_R	0.603	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.306	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.351	-0.008
predicted_SO	0.441	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.050

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.4286	0.3333	0.0952	0.0952	0.0476
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	11.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	5.000	0.2683	0.3023	0.3171	0.2683	0.0732	0.0488	0.1220
season	0.60	40	-	162.000	48.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	21.000	9.000	17.000	0.2963	0.3295	0.3395	0.2963	0.0556	0.0556	0.1049

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0410
predicted_3B	0.0900
predicted_AB	4.0470
predicted_AVG	0.2901
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	1.1740
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.3318
predicted_R	0.6950
predicted_RBI	0.3050
predicted_SLG	0.3591
predicted_SO	0.4690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0250	0.0410	0.0315	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0750	0.0900	0.0811	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0500	4.0470	4.0488	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2901	0.2900	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2250	0.2590	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.1740	1.1598	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0196	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3318	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5250	0.6950	0.5942	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3050	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3591	0.3590	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4250	0.4690	0.4429	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	802415
playerID	802415
playerName	Chandler Simpson
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Taylor Walls (670764) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 32

All-history rows before 20260517: 32

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.094	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.094	4.000	-0.094	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.250	-0.212	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.406	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.406	0.000	0.594	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.656	1.000	-0.656	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.250	-0.060	0.000
predicted_R	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.469	2.000	-0.469	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.250	-0.273	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.844	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.844	0.000	1.156	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.094	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.406	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.338	-
predicted_SO	0.844	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.007
predicted_3B	0.044	0.013
predicted_AB	3.183	0.089
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.398	-0.008
predicted_H	0.684	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.486	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.461	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	0.817	-0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.183	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.400	0.002
predicted_H	0.689	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.021	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.016
predicted_R	0.493	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.468	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.305	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.813	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.4444	0.2778	0.2778	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.2581	0.3429	0.3548	0.2581	0.2258	0.1290	0.1935
season	0.60	32	-	99.000	21.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	15.000	13.000	27.000	0.2121	0.3097	0.2727	0.2121	0.1111	0.1313	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0650
predicted_AB	3.3230
predicted_AVG	0.2364
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_H	0.7860
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0220
predicted_OBP	0.3204
predicted_R	0.5140
predicted_RBI	0.5260
predicted_SLG	0.3384
predicted_SO	0.7750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1430	0.1320	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0650	0.0442	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0940	3.3230	3.1830	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2364	0.2362	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4060	0.3850	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7860	0.6845	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0220	0.0208	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3204	0.3202	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.5140	0.4865	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5260	0.4612	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3380	0.3384	0.3382	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8440	0.7750	0.8172	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	670764
playerID	670764
playerName	Taylor Walls
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Richie Palacios (680700) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2540

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.864	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.864	5.000	1.136	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.400	-0.004	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.727	2.000	0.273	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	0.955	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.400	-0.118	-0.150
predicted_R	0.364	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	2.636	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.400	0.667	0.600
predicted_SO	0.818	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.818	1.000	0.182	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.864	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	0.818	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.044	0.180
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000
predicted_BB	0.424	-0.031
predicted_H	0.776	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.054	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.362	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.359	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.870	0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.044	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.427	0.002
predicted_H	0.781	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.054	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	-0.002
predicted_R	0.368	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.406	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.866	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4500	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	13.000	0.2424	0.3333	0.2727	0.2424	0.0000	0.1515	0.1515	0.3939
season	0.60	22	-	63.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	8.000	10.000	18.000	0.2540	0.3684	0.3333	0.2540	0.0159	0.1270	0.1587	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1300
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3540
predicted_AVG	0.2704
predicted_BB	0.3720
predicted_H	0.9070
predicted_HBP	0.0540
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.3500
predicted_R	0.3600
predicted_RBI	0.4700
predicted_SLG	0.3588
predicted_SO	0.9590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1300	0.1053	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8640	3.3540	3.0439	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2704	0.2701	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.3720	0.4245	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.9070	0.7760	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0540	0.0540	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0530	0.0448	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3500	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.3600	0.3625	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4700	0.4004	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3588	0.3589	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8180	0.9590	0.8698	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	680700
playerID	680700
playerName	Richie Palacios
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonathan Aranda (666018) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 41

All-history rows before 20260517: 41

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2781

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	1.000	-0.146	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.683	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.683	5.000	-1.683	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.200	-0.278	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.610	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.610	0.000	1.390	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.024	1.000	-1.024	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.404	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.200	0.120	0.300
predicted_R	0.561	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.561	0.000	-0.561	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.829	1.000	-0.829	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.488	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.477	0.400	-0.477	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.073	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.073	2.000	0.927	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.683	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.610	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.404	-
predicted_R	0.561	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.488	-
predicted_SO	1.073	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.650	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000
predicted_BB	0.636	0.026
predicted_H	1.055	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.114	-
predicted_HR	0.164	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.404	-0.000
predicted_R	0.601	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.759	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.488	0.000
predicted_SO	1.066	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.639	0.003
predicted_H	1.062	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.114	0.000
predicted_HR	0.165	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.397	-0.007
predicted_R	0.609	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.770	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.469	-0.019
predicted_SO	1.061	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	0.3529	0.4800	0.5882	0.3529	0.0588	0.2941	0.2941	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	8.000	10.000	0.3529	0.4783	0.5000	0.3529	0.0294	0.1765	0.2353	0.2941
season	0.60	41	-	151.000	42.000	6.000	8.000	34.000	23.000	25.000	44.000	0.2781	0.3804	0.4768	0.2782	0.0530	0.2252	0.1656	0.2914

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1710
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6020
predicted_AVG	0.2990
predicted_BB	0.6730
predicted_H	1.0770
predicted_HBP	0.1140
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_OBP	0.4038
predicted_R	0.6580
predicted_RBI	0.7720
predicted_SLG	0.4885
predicted_SO	1.0560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.1710	0.1562	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6830	3.6020	3.6499	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2990	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6100	0.6730	0.6358	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.0770	1.0551	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1140	0.1140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1690	0.1637	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4040	0.4038	0.4039	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5610	0.6580	0.6007	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.7720	0.7590	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4880	0.4885	0.4882	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0730	1.0560	1.0660	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	666018
playerID	666018
playerName	Jonathan Aranda
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2544

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.093	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.093	1.000	-0.093	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.930	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.930	5.000	1.070	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.400	0.146	0.000
predicted_BB	0.488	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.256	0.000	0.744	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.400	0.065	0.000
predicted_R	0.628	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.628	1.000	0.372	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	2.000	1.512	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.473	0.600	0.527	0.400
predicted_SO	0.721	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.721	0.000	-0.721	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.930	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.488	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.628	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	0.721	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.990	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000
predicted_BB	0.446	-0.042
predicted_H	0.975	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.178	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.617	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.455	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.422	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.708	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.990	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.448	0.002
predicted_H	0.981	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.179	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.006
predicted_R	0.626	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.461	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.407	-0.015
predicted_SO	0.704	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.930

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2609	0.2917	0.3043	0.2609	0.0000	0.0870	0.0435	0.1304
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	0.2381	0.2889	0.4048	0.2381	0.0476	0.1191	0.0714	0.1191
season	0.60	43	-	169.000	43.000	4.000	11.000	21.000	27.000	21.000	31.000	0.2544	0.3351	0.4734	0.2544	0.0651	0.1243	0.1243	0.1834

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1240
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0750
predicted_AVG	0.2513
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_H	1.0240
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1890
predicted_OBP	0.3155
predicted_R	0.6020
predicted_RBI	0.4760
predicted_SLG	0.4217
predicted_SO	0.6880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0930	0.1240	0.1057	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9300	4.0750	3.9895	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2513	0.2511	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4880	0.3850	0.4457	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0240	0.9745	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1890	0.1778	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3155	0.3158	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6280	0.6020	0.6173	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4760	0.4548	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4217	0.4219	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7210	0.6880	0.7075	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Yandy Díaz (650490) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2945

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.881	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.881	5.000	0.119	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.200	-0.044	0.050
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.143	1.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.200	-0.123	0.050
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.619	0.000	-0.619	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.442	0.200	-0.192	0.050
predicted_SO	0.524	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.524	0.000	0.476	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.881	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.389	-
predicted_SO	0.524	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.949	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.345	-0.012
predicted_H	0.963	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.098	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.462	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.543	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.542	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.949	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.347	0.002
predicted_H	0.969	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.098	0.000
predicted_HR	0.136	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.015
predicted_R	0.468	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.551	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.383	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.540	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.881

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.1739	0.2400	0.3043	0.1739	0.0435	0.1304	0.0870	0.0870
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.2143	0.2609	0.3095	0.2143	0.0238	0.1191	0.0476	0.1429
season	0.60	42	-	163.000	48.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	26.000	21.000	15.000	22.000	0.2945	0.3730	0.4417	0.2945	0.0368	0.1595	0.0920	0.1350

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	4.0480
predicted_AVG	0.2529
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_H	1.0240
predicted_HBP	0.0980
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.3213
predicted_R	0.4060
predicted_RBI	0.5770
predicted_SLG	0.3888
predicted_SO	0.5690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.0950	0.0950	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0150	0.0203	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8810	4.0480	3.9493	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2529	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.3280	0.3451	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.0240	0.9626	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0980	0.0980	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1420	0.1349	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3213	0.3211	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4060	0.4615	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5770	0.5433	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3890	0.3888	0.3889	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5240	0.5690	0.5424	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	650490
playerID	650490
playerName	Yandy Díaz
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TB
teamID	27

Cedric Mullins (656775) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 35

All-history rows before 20260517: 35

System season_avg: 0.1690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1692

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.7140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	3.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.169	0.333	0.164	0.000
predicted_BB	0.229	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.229	2.000	0.771	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.629	1.000	0.371	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.232	0.600	0.268	-0.100
predicted_R	0.371	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.371	1.000	0.629	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.269	0.333	0.064	0.000
predicted_SO	0.771	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	2.000	0.229	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.229	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.058	0.001
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.718	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.249	0.020
predicted_H	0.791	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.097	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.349	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.767	-0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.058	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.250	0.001
predicted_H	0.796	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.097	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.037
predicted_R	0.435	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.444	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.763	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.3684	0.4545	0.5263	0.3684	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.3611	0.2778	0.0278	0.1667	0.0833	0.1667
season	0.60	35	-	130.000	22.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	13.000	8.000	27.000	0.1692	0.2324	0.2692	0.1692	0.0231	0.1077	0.0615	0.2077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0590
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.7240
predicted_AVG	0.2331
predicted_BB	0.2780
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HBP	0.0970
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_OBP	0.3012
predicted_R	0.5160
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.3487
predicted_SO	0.7610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0570	0.0590	0.0578	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0170	0.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.7240	3.7180	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2331	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2290	0.2780	0.2486	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8680	0.7911	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0970	0.0970	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1130	0.1052	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3012	0.3011	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.5160	0.4289	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4790	0.4375	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3490	0.3487	0.3489	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.7610	0.7670	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.169

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	656775
playerID	656775
playerName	Cedric Mullins
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Nick Fortes (663743) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 26

All-history rows before 20260517: 26

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2889

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.462	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.462	4.000	0.538	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.250	-0.039	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.250	-0.054	0.000
predicted_R	0.269	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.269	0.000	0.731	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.250	-0.128	0.000
predicted_SO	0.615	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.615	2.000	0.385	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.462	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.269	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.367	-
predicted_SO	0.615	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.463	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.290	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.024	0.024
predicted_H	0.896	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.000
predicted_R	0.292	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.204	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.000
predicted_SO	0.653	0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.463	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.902	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.042	0.000
predicted_HR	0.042	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.046
predicted_R	0.297	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.207	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.650	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.3750	0.3750	0.3750	0.3750	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	0.2812	0.2812	0.2812	0.2812	0.0000	0.0000	0.2188
season	0.60	26	-	90.000	26.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	16.000	0.2889	0.3043	0.3778	0.2889	0.0111	0.0778	0.1778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1280
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4660
predicted_AVG	0.2897
predicted_BB	0.0630
predicted_H	1.0040
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.3117
predicted_R	0.3310
predicted_RBI	0.2280
predicted_SLG	0.3670
predicted_SO	0.7150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1920	0.1280	0.1678	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4620	3.4660	3.4635	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2897	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0630	0.0238	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	1.0040	0.8958	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0419	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3117	0.3119	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2690	0.3310	0.2924	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2280	0.2044	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3670	0.3670	0.3670	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6150	0.7150	0.6528	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	663743
playerID	663743
playerName	Nick Fortes
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Drew Rasmussen (656876) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 8

All-history rows before 20260517: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.875	3.000	1.125	0.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	4.000	4.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.275	6.000	-0.075	-0.800
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	5.375	6.000	1.625	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.200	13.000	24.000	6.000	26.000	5.000	4.3875	1.1250	0.4875	0.9000	0.2250	0.9750	0.1875
last_10	0.35	8	42.200	15.000	32.000	7.000	43.000	7.000	3.1641	0.9141	0.3516	0.7500	0.1641	1.0078	0.1641
season	0.20	8	42.200	15.000	32.000	7.000	43.000	7.000	3.1641	0.9141	0.3516	0.7500	0.1641	1.0078	0.1641

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4870
predicted_ER	2.4720
predicted_ERA	4.0741
predicted_H	4.8350
predicted_HR	0.8780
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.3170
predicted_WHIP	1.1574

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.4870	1.2374	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.4720	2.7426	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0741	4.0741	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.8350	5.4321	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8780	0.4280	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.1000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	5.3170	6.1795	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1574	1.1574	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	7
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.16
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	100
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	656876
playerID	656876
playerName	Drew Rasmussen
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.600	2.000	-0.600	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.870	1.000	0.130	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.150	3.000	-1.150	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	0.000	3.8571	1.7143	0.4286	0.6429	1.0714	1.7143	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	0.000	2.0000	1.1111	0.2222	0.5556	0.5556	1.4444	0.0000
season	0.20	20	18.100	6.000	12.000	8.000	23.000	1.000	2.9455	1.0909	0.3273	0.6545	0.4364	1.2546	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5410
predicted_ER	0.4110
predicted_ERA	3.7023
predicted_H	0.8020
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1960
predicted_WHIP	1.3427

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5410	0.2194	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4110	0.1666	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7023	3.7023	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8020	0.3252	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0800	0.0324	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1960	0.4849	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3427	1.3427	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.95
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Cole Sulser (642121) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.167	0.000	-1.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.144	1.100	-0.144	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.889	0.000	0.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4545	0.0000	0.2727	0.1818	0.7273	0.0000
season	0.20	17	22.000	6.000	19.000	8.000	16.000	1.000	2.4545	1.2273	0.2727	0.8636	0.3636	0.7273	0.0454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_ER	0.2830
predicted_ERA	2.4684
predicted_H	0.6450
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8390
predicted_WHIP	0.8915

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2740	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2830	0.1201	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4684	2.4684	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6450	0.2738	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0760	0.0323	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8390	0.9317	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8915	0.8915	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.27
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	642121
playerID	642121
playerName	Cole Sulser
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Garrett Cleavinger (664076) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 10

All-history rows before 20260517: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.730	1.000	0.270	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	-0.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	4.1538	1.1538	0.4615	0.9231	0.2308	1.6154	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	4.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	1.000	4.5000	1.6250	0.5000	1.0000	0.6250	1.5000	0.1250
season	0.20	10	8.000	4.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	1.000	4.5000	1.6250	0.5000	1.0000	0.6250	1.5000	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3710
predicted_ER	0.4530
predicted_ERA	4.2219
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0630
predicted_WHIP	1.3271

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3710	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4530	0.1492	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2219	4.2219	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9090	0.2994	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0454	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0630	1.0207	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3271	1.3271	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	664076
playerID	664076
playerName	Garrett Cleavinger
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Kevin Kelly (687330) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.870	1.000	-0.770	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	0.000	7.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6774	0.0000	0.6774	0.0000	0.5806	0.0000
season	0.20	20	20.200	6.000	12.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	2.6129	0.7742	0.2903	0.5806	0.1935	0.7742	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1430
predicted_ER	0.1790
predicted_ERA	2.5401
predicted_H	0.5050
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5120
predicted_WHIP	1.0216

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1430	0.6418	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1790	0.6569	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5401	2.5401	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5050	0.7931	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0480	0.0201	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5120	0.2140	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0216	1.0216	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	687330
playerID	687330
playerName	Kevin Kelly
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

20260517_MIL@MIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.546651, "home_win_probability": 0.453349, "away_win_probability": 0.546651, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 MIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 MIN", "confidence": 0.546651, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 MIN", "winner": "MIL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 MIN", "winner": "MIL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	MIL 4 - 3 MIN	MIL	0.547	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	MIL 4 - 3 MIN	MIL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away MIL	8-2	0.800	4.20	2.50	17	3W	average	strong
Home MIN	4-6	0.400	3.80	4.80	-10	2L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away MIL	26-17	0.605	62	1.442	True
Home MIN	20-26	0.435	-7	-0.152	True
Signal	-	-	-1.594	-1.849	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	MIL @ MIN	2 - 1	MIL	1	close
2026-05-15	MIL @ MIN	3 - 2	MIL	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target MIL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target MIN	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized MIL	33	9	7	0	3	1	9
Player finalized MIN	32	8	2	0	1	3	9
Player model fractional MIL	33.17	8.24	5.35	0.72	4.09	3.85	8.45
Player model fractional MIN	31.49	7.04	4.06	0.73	3.25	3.76	7.70
Simulation box MIL	33	6	4	1	4	5	6
Simulation box MIN	32	5	3	1	3	4	11

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away MIL	Starter	Robert Gasser	2.10	2	7	1	3	4.20	1.32	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Aaron Ashby	1.10	0	1	1	0	2.68	1.23	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	DL Hall	1	1	0	2	0	3.31	1.21	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Grant Anderson	1	0	2	1	0	3.86	1.30	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Abner Uribe	2.10	0	0	0	0	4.90	1.33	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Trevor Megill	1	0	1	0	1	3.70	1.18	True
Home MIN	Starter	Bailey Ober	6.10	2	5	2	3	3.23	1.06	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Eric Orze	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.50	1.42	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Justin Topa	1	2	1	3	2	7.58	1.74	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Taylor Rogers	0.10	0	0	1	0	3.17	1.33	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: MIL

William Contreras (661388) · BATTER · C · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 40

All-history rows before 20260517: 40

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2812

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.250	-0.281	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.475	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.475	0.000	0.525	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.125	1.000	-1.125	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.250	-0.159	-0.050
predicted_R	0.575	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.575	0.000	-0.575	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.675	0.000	-0.675	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.250	-0.388	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.550	1.000	-0.550	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.475	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.575	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.335	-
predicted_SO	0.550	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.939	-0.061
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.475	0.000
predicted_H	0.936	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.035	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.000
predicted_R	0.537	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.504	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.000
predicted_SO	0.598	0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.939	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.003
predicted_BB	0.482	0.008
predicted_H	0.976	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.035	0.000
predicted_HR	0.054	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.002
predicted_R	0.578	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.542	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.003
predicted_SO	0.588	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.2162	0.3182	0.2432	0.2162	0.0000	0.1081	0.1351	0.1892
season	0.60	40	-	160.000	45.000	8.000	3.000	27.000	23.000	19.000	22.000	0.2812	0.3591	0.3875	0.2812	0.0187	0.1688	0.1187	0.1375

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8510
predicted_AVG	0.2451
predicted_BB	0.4750
predicted_H	0.9440
predicted_HBP	0.0350
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.3318
predicted_R	0.4830
predicted_RBI	0.5110
predicted_SLG	0.3354
predicted_SO	0.6670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1800	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8510	3.9391	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2451	0.2450	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4750	0.4750	0.4750	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9440	0.9357	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0350	0.0350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0550	0.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3318	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5750	0.4830	0.5374	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5110	0.5045	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3350	0.3354	0.3352	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5500	0.6670	0.5978	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-C
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	661388
playerID	661388
playerName	William Contreras
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jackson Chourio (694192) · BATTER · LF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 10

All-history rows before 20260517: 10

System season_avg: 0.3180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3182

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.400	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.400	4.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.318	0.500	0.082	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.180	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.400	2.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.500	0.038	-0.100
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	1.500	0.300	-0.700
predicted_SO	1.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	2.000	-1.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.459	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.445	-0.055
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.321	-0.079
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.288	-0.012
predicted_H	1.169	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000
predicted_R	0.433	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.378	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.000
predicted_SO	1.458	-0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.445	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	4.321	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.007
predicted_BB	0.293	0.005
predicted_H	1.219	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.145	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.006
predicted_R	0.465	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.407	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.487	0.028
predicted_SO	1.435	-0.023

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 4.400

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.2727	0.3043	0.5000	0.2727	0.0454	0.0454	0.0454	0.4546
last_10	0.20	10	-	44.000	14.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	15.000	0.3182	0.3617	0.5000	0.3182	0.0227	0.0909	0.0682	0.3409
season	0.60	10	-	44.000	14.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	15.000	0.3182	0.3617	0.5000	0.3182	0.0227	0.0909	0.0682	0.3409

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3370
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.1660
predicted_AVG	0.2754
predicted_BB	0.2650
predicted_H	1.1470
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.3221
predicted_R	0.4980
predicted_RBI	0.3750
predicted_SLG	0.4591
predicted_SO	1.3760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.3370	0.4452	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.4000	4.1660	4.3214	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2754	0.2751	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.2650	0.2882	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.1470	1.1689	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1390	0.1397	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3221	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4980	0.4329	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3750	0.3783	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4590	0.4591	0.4590	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.3760	1.4583	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.318

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	694192
playerID	694192
playerName	Jackson Chourio
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Sal Frelick (686217) · BATTER · RF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 37

All-history rows before 20260517: 37

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.568	4.000	0.432	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.038	0.250
predicted_BB	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.757	0.000	0.243	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	0.919	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.000	-0.043	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	1.676	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.296	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.295	0.000	0.705	1.000
predicted_SO	0.556	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.541	1.000	-0.541	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.361	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	-
predicted_SO	0.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.700	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	-0.038
predicted_H	0.776	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.000
predicted_R	0.480	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.301	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.626	0.070

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.328	0.005
predicted_H	0.809	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.057	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.001
predicted_R	0.516	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.324	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.281	-0.015
predicted_SO	0.616	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2432	0.2821	0.2432	0.2432	0.0000	0.0811	0.0541	0.1892
season	0.60	36	-	132.000	28.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	18.000	13.000	20.000	0.2121	0.2877	0.2955	0.2121	0.0227	0.0758	0.0985	0.1515

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7500
predicted_AVG	0.2290
predicted_BB	0.2650
predicted_H	0.8590
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.2835
predicted_R	0.4500
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.2962
predicted_SO	0.7310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.0590	0.0572	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.7500	3.7002	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2290	0.2290	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3610	0.2650	0.3226	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8590	0.7756	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0630	0.0552	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2835	0.2832	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4500	0.4800	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3330	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2960	0.2962	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5560	0.7310	0.6260	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	686217
playerID	686217
playerName	Sal Frelick
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Garrett Mitchell (669003) · BATTER · CF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 32

All-history rows before 20260517: 32

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2342

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.469	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.469	2.000	-0.469	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.500	-0.234	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.594	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.594	0.000	0.406	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.812	1.000	-0.812	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.500	-0.098	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.688	0.000	-0.688	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.351	0.500	-0.351	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.469	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.469	1.000	-0.469	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.469	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.594	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	-
predicted_SO	1.469	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	0.010
predicted_3B	0.026	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.497	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.528	-0.066
predicted_H	0.734	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.467	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.442	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000
predicted_SO	1.446	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.497	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.536	0.008
predicted_H	0.765	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.034	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.012
predicted_R	0.502	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.475	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.423	-0.023

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.2500	0.2778	0.3750	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	16.000	0.1842	0.2381	0.2632	0.1842	0.0000	0.0526	0.0790	0.4210
season	0.60	32	-	111.000	26.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	22.000	16.000	19.000	47.000	0.2342	0.3485	0.3514	0.2342	0.0090	0.1982	0.1712	0.4234

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2740
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.5400
predicted_AVG	0.2304
predicted_BB	0.4270
predicted_H	0.8160
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.3110
predicted_R	0.4160
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.3489
predicted_SO	1.4110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2740	0.2595	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0180	0.0259	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4690	3.5400	3.4971	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2304	0.2302	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5940	0.4270	0.5279	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8160	0.7338	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0328	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3110	0.3110	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4160	0.4668	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4910	0.4421	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3490	0.3489	0.3490	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4690	1.4110	1.4460	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669003
playerID	669003
playerName	Garrett Mitchell
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIL
teamID	16

David Hamilton (666152) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 32

All-history rows before 20260517: 32

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2323

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.094	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.094	2.000	-0.094	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.000	-0.232	0.000
predicted_BB	0.438	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.438	1.000	0.562	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.094	1.000	-0.094	-1.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.719	0.000	-0.719	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.333	-0.083	-0.083
predicted_R	0.531	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.253	0.000	-0.253	0.000
predicted_SO	0.719	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.719	0.000	-0.719	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.094	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.531	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.273	-
predicted_SO	0.719	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.183	0.089
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.417	-0.021
predicted_H	0.660	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.000
predicted_R	0.519	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.198	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.746	0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.183	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.424	0.007
predicted_H	0.688	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.022	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.004
predicted_R	0.558	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.213	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.259	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.735	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2286	0.2895	0.2571	0.2286	0.0571	0.0857	0.2571
season	0.60	32	-	99.000	23.000	2.000	7.000	17.000	14.000	23.000	0.2323	0.3333	0.2525	0.2323	0.0707	0.1414	0.2323

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3220
predicted_AVG	0.2270
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_H	0.7540
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0220
predicted_OBP	0.3117
predicted_R	0.5010
predicted_RBI	0.2270
predicted_SLG	0.2726
predicted_SO	0.7890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.0800	0.0690	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0940	3.3220	3.1827	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2270	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.3850	0.4174	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7540	0.6599	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0220	0.0208	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3117	0.3119	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5310	0.5010	0.5193	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2270	0.1983	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2730	0.2726	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7190	0.7890	0.7462	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	666152
playerID	666152
playerName	David Hamilton
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brice Turang (668930) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 40

All-history rows before 20260517: 40

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2953

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.725	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.725	4.000	1.275	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.250	0.105	0.150
predicted_BB	0.775	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.775	0.000	-0.775	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.100	1.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.414	0.250	-0.014	0.150
predicted_R	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.675	0.000	0.325	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.497	0.250	-0.097	0.150
predicted_SO	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.950	2.000	0.050	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.725	-
predicted_AVG	0.287	-
predicted_BB	0.775	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.381	-
predicted_R	0.875	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	0.950	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.004
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.733	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.000
predicted_BB	0.695	-0.081
predicted_H	1.042	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.381	-0.000
predicted_R	0.843	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.653	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.000
predicted_SO	0.945	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.733	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.004
predicted_BB	0.705	0.011
predicted_H	1.087	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.128	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.404	0.023
predicted_R	0.906	0.063
predicted_RBI	0.703	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.007
predicted_SO	0.930	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.291 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.3889	0.2778	0.0000	0.2222	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	8.000	4.000	9.000	0.3077	0.3721	0.5128	0.3077	0.0513	0.1795	0.1026	0.2308
season	0.60	40	-	149.000	44.000	10.000	1.000	6.000	27.000	35.000	31.000	38.000	0.2953	0.4144	0.4966	0.2953	0.0403	0.1812	0.2081	0.2550

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2590
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.7440
predicted_AVG	0.2871
predicted_BB	0.5780
predicted_H	1.0750
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1280
predicted_OBP	0.3806
predicted_R	0.7960
predicted_RBI	0.6730
predicted_SLG	0.4664
predicted_SO	0.9380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2590	0.2537	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0150	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7250	3.7440	3.7328	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2870	0.2871	0.2870	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7750	0.5780	0.6945	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0750	1.0425	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1280	0.1233	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3810	0.3806	0.3808	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8750	0.7960	0.8427	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6730	0.6535	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4664	0.4662	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9500	0.9380	0.9451	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668930
playerID	668930
playerName	Brice Turang
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Joey Ortiz (687401) · BATTER · SS · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 28

All-history rows before 20260517: 28

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1978

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	4.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	-0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.257	0.000	-0.007	0.250
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_SO	0.714	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	0.000	1.286	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.036	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.304	0.054
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.258	-0.028
predicted_H	0.646	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.077	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.000
predicted_R	0.431	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.429	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	0.701	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.304	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.262	0.004
predicted_H	0.674	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.002
predicted_R	0.463	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.462	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.296	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.690	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.1765	0.0000	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.2188	0.2286	0.3438	0.2188	0.0312	0.2188	0.0312	0.1875
season	0.60	28	-	91.000	18.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	12.000	8.000	20.000	0.1978	0.2574	0.2418	0.1978	0.0110	0.1209	0.0879	0.2198

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1010
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3910
predicted_AVG	0.2174
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	0.7370
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_OBP	0.2605
predicted_R	0.4340
predicted_RBI	0.4930
predicted_SLG	0.3279
predicted_SO	0.6790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0360	0.1010	0.0609	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.3910	3.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2174	0.2172	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2120	0.2577	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7370	0.6463	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0890	0.0773	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2605	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4340	0.4309	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4930	0.4295	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3279	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.6790	0.7006	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	687401
playerID	687401
playerName	Joey Ortiz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jake Bauers (641343) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 33

All-history rows before 20260517: 33

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2823

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	1.000	-0.242	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.758	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.758	4.000	-1.758	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.500	-0.282	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.061	2.000	-1.061	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.384	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.500	0.140	0.000
predicted_R	0.697	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.697	0.000	-0.697	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.525	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.750	-0.492	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.939	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.939	2.000	0.061	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.758	-
predicted_AVG	0.307	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.384	-
predicted_R	0.697	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.525	-
predicted_SO	0.939	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	0.031
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.734	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.000
predicted_BB	0.457	0.002
predicted_H	1.084	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.154	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.384	0.000
predicted_R	0.677	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.536	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.525	0.000
predicted_SO	0.962	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.734	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.303	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.464	0.007
predicted_H	1.131	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.380	-0.004
predicted_R	0.728	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.577	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.505	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.947	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.301 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.4444	0.5000	0.7778	0.4444	0.0556	0.1667	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	11.000	0.3143	0.4286	0.5143	0.3143	0.0286	0.1143	0.2000	0.3143
season	0.60	33	-	124.000	35.000	8.000	6.000	21.000	23.000	15.000	31.000	0.2823	0.3597	0.4919	0.2823	0.0484	0.1694	0.1210	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3200
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6970
predicted_AVG	0.3074
predicted_BB	0.4590
predicted_H	1.1360
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_OBP	0.3844
predicted_R	0.6460
predicted_RBI	0.5610
predicted_SLG	0.5254
predicted_SO	0.9970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.3200	0.2731	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7580	3.6970	3.7337	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3070	0.3074	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.4590	0.4566	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.1360	1.0842	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1600	0.1540	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3840	0.3844	0.3842	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6970	0.6460	0.6767	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5610	0.5363	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5250	0.5254	0.5252	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9390	0.9970	0.9621	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	641343
playerID	641343
playerName	Jake Bauers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Christian Yelich (592885) · BATTER · DH · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 14

All-history rows before 20260517: 14

System season_avg: 0.2830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2830

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4130

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.786	4.000	0.214	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.283	0.000	-0.033	0.250
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.071	0.000	-0.071	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.000	-0.095	0.250
predicted_R	0.643	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.643	0.000	0.357	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.358	0.000	-0.108	0.250
predicted_SO	1.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	2.000	-0.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	3.786	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.335	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.757	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.348	-0.009
predicted_H	0.855	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.589	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.365	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.335	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.101	-0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.757	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.354	0.006
predicted_H	0.892	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.002
predicted_R	0.634	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.393	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.007
predicted_SO	1.084	-0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.0625	0.1667	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.1250	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	0.2703	0.3250	0.3784	0.2703	0.1081	0.0811	0.2973
season	0.60	14	-	53.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	9.000	5.000	16.000	0.2830	0.3448	0.3585	0.2830	0.1132	0.0943	0.3019

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0450
predicted_AB	3.7020
predicted_AVG	0.2389
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	0.8840
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.3052
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.3750
predicted_SLG	0.3345
predicted_SO	1.0230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1420	0.1426	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.0450	0.0619	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7860	3.7020	3.7566	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2389	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.3320	0.3482	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8840	0.8554	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3052	0.3051	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.4900	0.5894	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3750	0.3653	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3350	0.3345	0.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.0230	1.1010	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.283

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	592885
playerID	592885
playerName	Christian Yelich
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

Robert Gasser (688107) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 0

All-history rows before 20260517: 0

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1260
predicted_ER	0.1550
predicted_ERA	4.1954
predicted_H	0.3130
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3180
predicted_WHIP	1.3167

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.1260	2.3462	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.1550	1.5803	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1954	4.1954	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3130	0.8437	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0430	0.7823	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	0.3180	5.4798	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3167	1.3167	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	7
HR	1
BF	11
Pitches	56

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Aaron Ashby (676879) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.095	4.000	-0.095	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.248	2.000	-0.148	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.095	1.000	-1.095	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	10.000	0.000	1.1250	1.0000	0.1250	0.7500	0.2500	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	2.000	10.000	9.000	22.000	0.000	1.2000	1.2667	0.1333	0.6667	0.6000	1.4667	0.0000
season	0.20	21	29.000	7.000	23.000	15.000	44.000	1.000	2.1724	1.3103	0.2414	0.7931	0.5172	1.5172	0.0345

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5710
predicted_ER	0.4210
predicted_ERA	2.6783
predicted_H	1.1680
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6710
predicted_WHIP	1.2304

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5710	0.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4210	0.1910	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6783	2.6783	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1680	1.0762	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0910	0.0413	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6710	1.3044	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2304	1.2304	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.17
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	676879
playerID	676879
playerName	Aaron Ashby
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

DL Hall (669084) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.556	0.000	1.444	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.956	1.000	0.044	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.222	1.000	-1.222	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	1.5882	0.8824	0.1765	0.1765	0.7059	0.8823	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	4.000	5.000	9.000	12.000	1.000	3.1765	1.2353	0.3529	0.4412	0.7941	1.0588	0.0882
season	0.20	18	20.000	4.000	10.000	15.000	22.000	1.000	1.8000	1.2500	0.2000	0.5000	0.7500	1.1000	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5410
predicted_ER	0.3670
predicted_ERA	3.3062
predicted_H	0.6710
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9690
predicted_WHIP	1.2117

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5410	0.2242	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3670	0.7376	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3062	3.3062	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6710	1.4491	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0910	0.0377	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9690	0.4016	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2117	1.2117	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669084
playerID	669084
playerName	DL Hall
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Grant Anderson (681982) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.684	1.000	0.316	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.763	1.000	0.237	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	0.000	1.211	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.2500	1.0000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	2.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	2.1600	1.0800	0.2400	0.8400	0.2400	0.7200	0.2400
season	0.20	19	18.000	6.000	13.000	7.000	15.000	2.000	3.0000	1.1111	0.3333	0.7222	0.3889	0.8333	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2980
predicted_ER	0.3810
predicted_ERA	3.8559
predicted_H	0.8570
predicted_HR	0.1900
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8170
predicted_WHIP	1.2994

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2980	0.1203	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3810	0.1538	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8559	3.8559	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8570	0.9423	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1900	0.0767	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8170	1.5225	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2994	1.2994	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	681982
playerID	681982
playerName	Grant Anderson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Abner Uribe (682842) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.737	1.000	-0.737	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.826	1.000	1.274	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.947	1.000	-0.947	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	7.2000	1.6000	0.8000	0.8000	0.8000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	5.0000	1.1111	0.5556	0.6667	0.4444	1.0000	0.2222
season	0.20	19	17.100	9.000	14.000	7.000	18.000	2.000	4.6731	1.2115	0.5192	0.8077	0.4038	1.0385	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2830
predicted_ER	0.3290
predicted_ERA	4.9002
predicted_H	0.5220
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5680
predicted_WHIP	1.3308

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2830	0.1131	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3290	0.1315	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9002	4.9002	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5220	0.2086	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0376	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5680	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3308	1.3308	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	34

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.67
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	682842
playerID	682842
playerName	Abner Uribe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Trevor Megill (656730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 17

All-history rows before 20260517: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.824	0.000	-0.824	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.941	1.000	0.059	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.176	1.000	-0.176	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.3000
season	0.20	16	16.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	20.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.7500	0.3750	1.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1910
predicted_ER	0.2440
predicted_ERA	3.7018
predicted_H	0.5050
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6530
predicted_WHIP	1.1762

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1910	0.6832	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2440	0.0956	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7018	3.7018	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5050	0.1978	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0470	0.0184	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6530	0.8641	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1762	1.1762	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656730
playerID	656730
playerName	Trevor Megill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Home Team: MIN

Brooks Lee (686797) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 41

All-history rows before 20260517: 41

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2484

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.732	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.732	4.000	0.268	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.252	0.500
predicted_BB	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.927	0.000	1.073	2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	0.878	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.000	0.197	0.500
predicted_R	0.463	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.463	0.000	0.537	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.537	0.000	1.463	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.325	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.000	0.864	1.250
predicted_SO	0.683	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.683	0.000	-0.683	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.732	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.268	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.463	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.325	-
predicted_SO	0.683	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.766	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	0.012
predicted_H	0.791	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000
predicted_R	0.437	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.383	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.325	0.000
predicted_SO	0.656	-0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.766	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.277	-0.002
predicted_H	0.761	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.257	-0.019
predicted_R	0.409	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.358	-0.025
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.662	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.1000	0.1818	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.2051	0.2619	0.2564	0.2051	0.0000	0.0769	0.0769	0.1026
season	0.60	41	-	153.000	38.000	6.000	5.000	22.000	19.000	11.000	28.000	0.2484	0.3030	0.3856	0.2484	0.0327	0.1438	0.0719	0.1830

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8160
predicted_AVG	0.2153
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_H	0.8210
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.2759
predicted_R	0.3980
predicted_RBI	0.4010
predicted_SLG	0.3253
predicted_SO	0.6170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.1690	0.1553	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7320	3.8160	3.7660	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2153	0.2151	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2680	0.2970	0.2797	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8210	0.7907	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0820	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2759	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4630	0.3980	0.4367	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4010	0.3826	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3250	0.3253	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6830	0.6170	0.6563	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	686797
playerID	686797
playerName	Brooks Lee
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIN
teamID	17

Victor Caratini (605170) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 29

All-history rows before 20260517: 29

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1900

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.448	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.448	4.000	0.552	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_BB	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.345	0.000	-0.345	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.655	0.000	-0.655	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.448	1.000	-0.448	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.221	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.230	0.000	-0.230	0.000
predicted_SO	0.793	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.793	1.000	1.207	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.034	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.448	-
predicted_AVG	0.171	-
predicted_BB	0.345	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.248	-
predicted_R	0.207	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.221	-
predicted_SO	0.793	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.041	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.494	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	-0.022
predicted_H	0.556	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.107	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.000
predicted_R	0.209	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.342	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.221	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.861	0.068

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.041	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.494	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.320	-0.003
predicted_H	0.535	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.107	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.224	-0.024
predicted_R	0.195	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.320	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.194	-0.027
predicted_SO	0.868	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	14.000	0.0833	0.1538	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.3889
season	0.60	29	-	100.000	19.000	1.000	1.000	13.000	6.000	10.000	23.000	0.1900	0.2857	0.2300	0.1900	0.0100	0.1300	0.1000	0.2300

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0510
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5670
predicted_AVG	0.1712
predicted_BB	0.2880
predicted_H	0.6110
predicted_HBP	0.1070
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.2481
predicted_R	0.2110
predicted_RBI	0.3750
predicted_SLG	0.2208
predicted_SO	0.9660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0340	0.0510	0.0406	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4480	3.5670	3.4945	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1710	0.1712	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3450	0.2880	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6110	0.5556	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1070	0.1070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0400	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2480	0.2481	0.2480	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2070	0.2110	0.2086	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3750	0.3415	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2210	0.2208	0.2209	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7930	0.9660	0.8607	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	605170
playerID	605170
playerName	Victor Caratini
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Ryan Jeffers (680777) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 32

All-history rows before 20260517: 32

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2870

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.594	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.594	4.000	0.406	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.250	-0.037	0.000
predicted_BB	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.031	1.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.394	0.250	-0.144	0.000
predicted_R	0.719	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.719	0.000	0.281	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.781	0.000	0.219	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.482	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.513	0.250	-0.013	0.250
predicted_SO	0.719	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.719	0.000	0.281	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.594	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.625	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.719	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.482	-
predicted_SO	0.719	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	0.014
predicted_3B	0.026	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.583	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	0.620	-0.005
predicted_H	0.894	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.174	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000
predicted_R	0.673	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.482	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.683	-0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.583	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.615	-0.005
predicted_H	0.861	-0.033
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.169	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.352	-0.014
predicted_R	0.630	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.562	-0.039
predicted_SLG	0.453	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.689	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	0.1875	0.3500	0.4375	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.2500	0.0625
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3636	0.5278	0.2500	0.0556	0.1389	0.1944	0.1667
season	0.60	32	-	115.000	33.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	25.000	23.000	20.000	23.000	0.2870	0.3942	0.5130	0.2870	0.0522	0.2174	0.1739	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2240
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.5670
predicted_AVG	0.2569
predicted_BB	0.6130
predicted_H	0.9160
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.3659
predicted_R	0.6040
predicted_RBI	0.6160
predicted_SLG	0.4818
predicted_SO	0.6290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.2240	0.2023	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0180	0.0258	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5940	3.5670	3.5833	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2569	0.2570	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6250	0.6130	0.6202	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9160	0.8943	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1810	0.1744	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3659	0.3660	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7190	0.6040	0.6733	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6160	0.6003	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4820	0.4818	0.4819	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7190	0.6290	0.6832	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680777
playerID	680777
playerName	Ryan Jeffers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Ryan Kreidler (668952) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 7

All-history rows before 20260517: 7

System season_avg: 0.3500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.857	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.857	3.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.341	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.350	0.667	-0.350	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.439	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.480	0.667	-0.230	-0.417
predicted_R	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.577	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.700	0.667	-0.700	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.714	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	1.000	1.286	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.341	-
predicted_BB	0.714	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.439	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.577	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.014
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.963	0.106
predicted_AVG	0.341	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.702	-0.012
predicted_H	0.894	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.153	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.439	-0.000
predicted_R	0.704	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.454	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.577	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.753	0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.963	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.696	-0.006
predicted_H	0.861	-0.033
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.148	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.425	-0.014
predicted_R	0.659	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.425	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.495	-0.082
predicted_SO	0.759	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	0.5000	0.6471	0.8333	0.5000	0.0833	0.2500	0.4167	0.3333
last_10	0.20	7	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	0.3500	0.4800	0.7000	0.3500	0.1000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2500
season	0.60	7	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	0.3500	0.4800	0.7000	0.3500	0.1000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1920
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.2220
predicted_AVG	0.3408
predicted_BB	0.6710
predicted_H	1.0980
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1850
predicted_OBP	0.4388
predicted_R	0.6800
predicted_RBI	0.5630
predicted_SLG	0.5768
predicted_SO	0.8480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1920	0.1572	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8570	3.2220	2.9630	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3410	0.3408	0.3409	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7140	0.6710	0.7015	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	1.0980	0.8936	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1850	0.1531	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4390	0.4388	0.4389	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.6800	0.7041	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5630	0.4544	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5770	0.5768	0.5769	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.8480	0.7529	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.35

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668952
playerID	668952
playerName	Ryan Kreidler
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Royce Lewis (668904) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 30

All-history rows before 20260517: 30

System season_avg: 0.1680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1683

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.367	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.367	4.000	-0.367	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.168	0.250	-0.168	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.567	1.000	-0.567	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.250	-0.017	0.000
predicted_R	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.367	0.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.433	0.000	-0.433	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.287	0.250	-0.287	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.133	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.133	2.000	0.867	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.367	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.367	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.278	-
predicted_SO	1.133	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.113	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.412	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.177	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.386	-0.014
predicted_H	0.551	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.055	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.000
predicted_R	0.380	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.369	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.000
predicted_SO	1.141	0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.113	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.412	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.155	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.383	-0.003
predicted_H	0.530	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.055	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.241	-0.023
predicted_R	0.356	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.345	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.244	-0.034
predicted_SO	1.150	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.155 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.4118
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	0.1143	0.2000	0.1429	0.1143	0.0000	0.0857	0.0857	0.3714
season	0.60	30	-	101.000	17.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	11.000	12.000	34.000	0.1683	0.2672	0.2871	0.1683	0.0297	0.1287	0.1188	0.3366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4820
predicted_AVG	0.1766
predicted_BB	0.3630
predicted_H	0.6150
predicted_HBP	0.0550
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.2637
predicted_R	0.4010
predicted_RBI	0.4150
predicted_SLG	0.2781
predicted_SO	1.1530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1320	0.1125	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3670	3.4820	3.4118	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1766	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3630	0.3856	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6150	0.5509	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0550	0.0550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0720	0.0647	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2637	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3670	0.4010	0.3803	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4150	0.3692	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2780	0.2781	0.2780	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1330	1.1530	1.1408	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.168

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668904
playerID	668904
playerName	Royce Lewis
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Clemens (665019) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 29

All-history rows before 20260517: 29

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2475

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.276	1.000	-0.276	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.483	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.483	4.000	-0.483	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.500	-0.248	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.379	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.379	0.000	0.621	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.862	2.000	-0.862	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.500	-0.100	-0.250
predicted_R	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.483	0.000	-0.483	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.345	0.000	-0.345	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.520	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.750	-0.446	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.034	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.034	1.000	-1.034	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.483	-
predicted_AVG	0.295	-
predicted_BB	0.379	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.378	-
predicted_R	0.483	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.520	-
predicted_SO	1.034	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.315	0.039
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.504	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.295	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.345	-0.034
predicted_H	0.986	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.174	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.000
predicted_R	0.506	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.520	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.981	-0.053

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.315	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.504	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.342	-0.003
predicted_H	0.949	-0.036
predicted_HBP	0.174	0.000
predicted_HR	0.129	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.042
predicted_R	0.474	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.289	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.472	-0.048
predicted_SO	0.989	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.4737	0.5000	0.8421	0.4737	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	10.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.3226	0.4324	0.5806	0.3226	0.0323	0.0645	0.0968	0.2581
season	0.60	29	-	101.000	25.000	8.000	4.000	10.000	14.000	11.000	30.000	0.2475	0.3504	0.4455	0.2475	0.0396	0.0990	0.1089	0.2970

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3770
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5370
predicted_AVG	0.2947
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_H	1.0420
predicted_HBP	0.1740
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.3780
predicted_R	0.5430
predicted_RBI	0.3230
predicted_SLG	0.5198
predicted_SO	0.8980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2760	0.3770	0.3154	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4830	3.5370	3.5041	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2950	0.2947	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3790	0.2920	0.3450	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0420	0.9859	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1740	0.1740	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1380	0.1331	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3780	0.3780	0.3780	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4830	0.5430	0.5064	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3230	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5200	0.5198	0.5199	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0340	0.8980	0.9809	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	665019
playerID	665019
playerName	Kody Clemens
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Austin Martin (668885) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 30

All-history rows before 20260517: 30

System season_avg: 0.3210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3208

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.533	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.533	4.000	0.467	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.321	0.000	-0.321	0.000
predicted_BB	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.133	0.000	-1.133	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.434	0.000	-0.234	0.200
predicted_R	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.433	0.000	-0.433	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.406	0.000	-0.406	0.000
predicted_SO	0.633	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.633	2.000	1.367	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.533	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.371	-
predicted_R	0.433	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	0.633	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.638	0.105
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.592	-0.075
predicted_H	1.048	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.371	-0.000
predicted_R	0.435	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.386	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000
predicted_SO	0.676	0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.638	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.587	-0.005
predicted_H	1.009	-0.039
predicted_HBP	0.041	0.000
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.007
predicted_R	0.407	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.361	-0.025
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.681	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.3333	0.2381	0.0000	0.1429	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.3095	0.3556	0.3810	0.3095	0.0000	0.0952	0.0714	0.1667
season	0.60	30	-	106.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	13.000	20.000	19.000	0.3208	0.4341	0.4057	0.3207	0.0094	0.0943	0.1887	0.1792

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2420
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8000
predicted_AVG	0.2910
predicted_BB	0.4760
predicted_H	1.1060
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.3708
predicted_R	0.4370
predicted_RBI	0.4100
predicted_SLG	0.3879
predicted_SO	0.7420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2420	0.2166	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5330	3.8000	3.6384	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2910	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.4760	0.5916	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.1060	1.0479	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3710	0.3708	0.3709	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4330	0.4370	0.4346	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4100	0.3858	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3879	0.3880	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6330	0.7420	0.6760	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.321

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668885
playerID	668885
playerName	Austin Martin
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIN
teamID	17

James Outman (681546) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 10

All-history rows before 20260517: 10

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_3B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.400	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.333	0.098	0.000
predicted_BB	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.257	0.333	0.243	0.167
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.382	1.000	0.284	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.300	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.300	2.000	-1.300	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.100	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.100	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.444	-
predicted_SO	1.300	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.097	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.458	0.058
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.134	0.034
predicted_H	0.840	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.526	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.399	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.444	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.195	-0.105

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	0.000
predicted_3B	0.097	0.000
predicted_AB	3.458	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.037
predicted_BB	0.133	-0.001
predicted_H	0.809	-0.031
predicted_HBP	0.014	0.000
predicted_HR	0.043	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.262	-0.053
predicted_R	0.492	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.373	-0.026
predicted_SLG	0.412	-0.032
predicted_SO	1.205	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3529	0.3889	0.5882	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	13.000	0.2353	0.2571	0.3824	0.2353	0.0882	0.0294	0.3824
season	0.60	10	-	34.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	13.000	0.2353	0.2571	0.3824	0.2353	0.0882	0.0294	0.3824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2770
predicted_3B	0.0910
predicted_AB	3.5840
predicted_AVG	0.2710
predicted_BB	0.2080
predicted_H	0.9710
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.3147
predicted_R	0.5820
predicted_RBI	0.4610
predicted_SLG	0.4436
predicted_SO	0.9680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.2770	0.2928	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1000	0.0910	0.0972	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.5840	3.4580	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2710	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1000	0.2080	0.1340	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9710	0.8402	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0530	0.0441	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3147	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5820	0.5258	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4610	0.3987	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4440	0.4436	0.4439	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3000	0.9680	1.1954	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681546
playerID	681546
playerName	James Outman
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luke Keaschall (807712) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2264

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.698	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.698	4.000	0.302	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.250	0.024	0.000
predicted_BB	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.837	1.000	0.163	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.250	-0.059	0.000
predicted_R	0.465	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.465	1.000	0.535	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.349	0.000	-0.349	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.280	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.296	0.250	-0.046	0.000
predicted_SO	0.651	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.651	0.000	1.349	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.698	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.419	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.465	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.280	-
predicted_SO	0.651	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.669	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.415	-0.004
predicted_H	0.753	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.081	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.000
predicted_R	0.474	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.228	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.280	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.696	0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.669	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.412	-0.003
predicted_H	0.725	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.081	0.000
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.027
predicted_R	0.444	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.213	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.267	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.702	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	8.000	6.000	0.2258	0.4000	0.2581	0.2258	0.0000	0.0000	0.2581	0.1935
season	0.60	43	-	159.000	36.000	8.000	1.000	15.000	20.000	18.000	28.000	0.2264	0.3094	0.2956	0.2264	0.0063	0.0943	0.1132	0.1761

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6270
predicted_AVG	0.2170
predicted_BB	0.4100
predicted_H	0.7870
predicted_HBP	0.0810
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.3056
predicted_R	0.4870
predicted_RBI	0.2400
predicted_SLG	0.2797
predicted_SO	0.7620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.1380	0.1664	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6980	3.6270	3.6690	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2170	0.2170	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4190	0.4100	0.4153	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7870	0.7533	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0810	0.0810	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0280	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3056	0.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4650	0.4870	0.4740	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2400	0.2282	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2800	0.2797	0.2799	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6510	0.7620	0.6963	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	807712
playerID	807712
playerName	Luke Keaschall
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Bailey Ober (641927) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 9

All-history rows before 20260517: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.667	0.000	1.333	3.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.222	0.000	-0.222	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	4.222	2.000	-2.222	0.000
predicted_IP	6.100	6.100	6.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.700	9.000	0.400	-2.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	4.333	7.000	0.667	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	32.100	8.000	18.000	10.000	25.000	3.000	2.2268	0.8660	0.2474	0.5567	0.3093	0.7732	0.0928
last_10	0.35	9	52.000	20.000	38.000	15.000	39.000	5.000	3.4615	1.0192	0.3846	0.7308	0.2885	0.7500	0.0961
season	0.20	9	52.000	20.000	38.000	15.000	39.000	5.000	3.4615	1.0192	0.3846	0.7308	0.2885	0.7500	0.0961

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0290
predicted_ER	2.2170
predicted_ERA	3.2342
predicted_H	4.5390
predicted_HR	0.6590
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	5.1340
predicted_WHIP	1.0647

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.0290	2.5153	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.2170	2.1083	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2342	3.2342	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.5390	3.2673	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6590	0.8298	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.1000	6.1000	6.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.1340	4.5660	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0647	1.0647	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	5
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	98

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	29
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.46
Pitching_Flyouts	7
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	9.0
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	64
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	641927
playerID	641927
playerName	Bailey Ober
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.056	2.000	-1.056	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.011	2.000	0.089	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	1.000	-0.944	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	1.3500	1.6500	0.1500	0.9000	0.7500	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	12.100	5.000	10.000	8.000	11.000	3.6486	1.4595	0.4054	0.8108	0.6486	0.8919
season	0.20	18	21.000	9.000	19.000	12.000	17.000	3.8571	1.4762	0.4286	0.9048	0.5714	0.8095

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6870
predicted_ER	0.5180
predicted_ERA	3.4954
predicted_H	1.2090
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1450
predicted_WHIP	1.4221

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6870	0.2883	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5180	0.2174	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4954	3.4954	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2090	0.5073	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0394	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1450	1.0608	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4221	1.4221	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Justin Topa (623437) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	1.000	1.591	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.636	0.000	1.364	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.091	1.000	1.909	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.668	1.200	0.332	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.682	2.000	0.318	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	9.000	10.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	16.2000	2.8000	1.8000	2.0000	0.8000	0.8000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	10.000	13.000	5.000	10.000	3.000	10.0000	2.0000	1.1111	1.4444	0.5556	1.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	22	18.200	14.000	24.000	9.000	15.000	4.000	6.7500	1.7679	0.7500	1.2857	0.4821	0.8036	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4950
predicted_ER	0.8420
predicted_ERA	7.5766
predicted_H	1.2460
predicted_HR	0.2570
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9350
predicted_WHIP	1.7410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4950	1.3870	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.8420	1.5283	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.5766	7.5766	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.2460	2.2856	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2570	0.1047	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9350	0.9735	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7410	1.7410	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.13
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	35
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	623437
playerID	623437
playerName	Justin Topa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taylor Rogers (573124) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.222	2.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.794	1.000	-0.694	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	1.000	9.000	0.000	6.000	1.2857	1.2857	0.1429	1.2857	0.0000	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	2.000	12.000	3.000	7.000	1.6364	1.3636	0.1818	1.0909	0.2727	0.6364
season	0.20	17	17.100	5.000	20.000	5.000	13.000	2.5962	1.4423	0.2885	1.1539	0.2885	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1910
predicted_ER	0.2340
predicted_ERA	3.1663
predicted_H	0.6940
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5830
predicted_WHIP	1.3280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1910	0.0763	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2340	0.0935	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1663	3.1663	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6940	0.8777	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0510	0.0204	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5830	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3280	1.3280	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	573124
playerID	573124
playerName	Taylor Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

20260517_NYY@NYM

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.546651, "home_win_probability": 0.546651, "away_win_probability": 0.453349, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 3 - 4 NYM", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 3 - 4 NYM", "confidence": 0.546651, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 3 - 4 NYM", "winner": "NYM"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "NYY 3 - 6 NYM", "winner": "NYM"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	NYY 3 - 4 NYM	NYM	0.547	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	NYY 3 - 6 NYM	NYM	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away NYY	3-7	0.300	3.20	4.20	-10	1L	cold	average
Home NYM	6-4	0.600	4.70	3.50	12	1W	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away NYY	28-18	0.609	69	1.500	True
Home NYM	19-26	0.422	-17	-0.378	True
Signal	-	-	-1.878	-2.158	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	NYY @ NYM	3 - 6	NYM	3	blowout
2026-05-15	NYY @ NYM	5 - 2	NYY	3	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target NYY	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target NYM	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized NYY	33	8	4	0	3	6	9
Player finalized NYM	33	9	3	0	2	2	9
Player model fractional NYY	31.01	6.39	3.99	1.01	3.80	5.77	8.78
Player model fractional NYM	31.56	7.00	3.81	0.96	3.66	3.13	7.28
Simulation box NYY	30	4	3	2	3	4	8
Simulation box NYM	35	11	6	1	6	4	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away NYY	Starter	Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz	4.10	4	4	7	3	4.48	1.53	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	Fernando Cruz	1.20	2	0	3	1	3.11	1.26	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	David Bednar	1	0	2	1	0	4.22	1.21	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	Tim Hill	1	0	2	0	0	3.16	1.27	True
Home NYM	Starter	Freddy Peralta	5.20	2	5	3	2	3.27	1.27	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Luke Weaver	1.10	0	1	0	1	2.93	1.26	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Brooks Raley	1	0	2	0	0	2.55	1.27	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Devin Williams	1	1	0	1	1	3.17	1.05	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: NYY

J.C. Escarra (641555) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 12

All-history rows before 20260517: 12

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1905

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.000	0.310	0.500
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.244	0.000	0.256	0.500
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.310	0.000	0.190	0.500
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.083	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.071	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.528	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.259	0.009
predicted_H	0.662	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000
predicted_R	0.350	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.403	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.000
predicted_SO	0.816	-0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.528	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.262	0.003
predicted_H	0.664	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.043	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.244	-0.025
predicted_R	0.353	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.407	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.003
predicted_SO	0.806	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.1875	0.1250	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.2286	0.2703	0.3714	0.2286	0.1429	0.0571	0.2286
season	0.60	12	-	42.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.1905	0.2444	0.3095	0.1905	0.1429	0.0714	0.2381

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2240
predicted_3B	0.0480
predicted_AB	3.5830
predicted_AVG	0.2086
predicted_BB	0.2770
predicted_H	0.7470
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_OBP	0.2691
predicted_R	0.3840
predicted_RBI	0.4500
predicted_SLG	0.3364
predicted_SO	0.7810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2240	0.2413	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0830	0.0480	0.0713	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5830	3.5276	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2086	0.2089	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2770	0.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7470	0.6623	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0460	0.0420	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2691	0.2690	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3840	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4500	0.4033	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3364	0.3361	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.7810	0.8157	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	641555
playerID	641555
playerName	J.C. Escarra
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (665862) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2264

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.786	5.000	0.214	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.400	0.024	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	2.000	0.143	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	0.905	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.400	-0.053	-0.150
predicted_R	0.452	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	1.000	0.548	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.381	0.000	0.619	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.410	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.358	0.600	0.642	0.400
predicted_SO	1.214	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.214	2.000	-1.214	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.786	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.405	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.410	-
predicted_SO	1.214	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.264	0.050
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.810	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.370	-0.035
predicted_H	0.915	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000
predicted_R	0.441	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.408	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.410	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.238	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.264	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.374	0.004
predicted_H	0.918	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.077	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.006
predicted_R	0.444	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.371	-0.039
predicted_SO	1.224	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.5500	0.3500	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	15.000	0.2564	0.2927	0.4359	0.2564	0.0256	0.1026	0.0513	0.3846
season	0.60	42	-	159.000	36.000	9.000	4.000	16.000	19.000	17.000	51.000	0.2264	0.3034	0.3585	0.2264	0.0252	0.1006	0.1069	0.3207

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8440
predicted_AVG	0.2552
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_H	0.9810
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.3151
predicted_R	0.4240
predicted_RBI	0.4340
predicted_SLG	0.4098
predicted_SO	1.2740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.3370	0.2642	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7860	3.8440	3.8097	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2552	0.2551	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4050	0.3190	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9810	0.9153	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0840	0.0757	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3151	0.3150	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.4240	0.4406	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4340	0.4079	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4100	0.4098	0.4099	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2140	1.2740	1.2385	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	665862
playerID	665862
playerName	Jazz Chisholm Jr.
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 46

All-history rows before 20260517: 46

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	1.000	-0.174	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.587	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.587	4.000	0.413	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.500	-0.273	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.761	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.761	1.000	-0.761	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.978	2.000	-0.978	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.406	0.600	-0.406	-0.600
predicted_R	0.826	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.826	1.000	-0.826	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.652	0.000	-0.652	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.529	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.612	0.750	-0.612	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.239	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.239	1.000	-1.239	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.587	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.761	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.826	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.529	-
predicted_SO	1.239	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.622	0.035
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.721	-0.040
predicted_H	0.971	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.227	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.000
predicted_R	0.770	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.436	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.529	0.000
predicted_SO	1.193	-0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.622	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.730	0.009
predicted_H	0.973	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.391	0.001
predicted_R	0.776	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.512	-0.017
predicted_SO	1.179	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.063

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.4211	0.3158	0.0000	0.0000	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	13.000	0.2703	0.3864	0.4865	0.2703	0.0541	0.0811	0.1892	0.3513
season	0.60	46	-	165.000	45.000	8.000	16.000	30.000	38.000	35.000	57.000	0.2727	0.4059	0.6121	0.2727	0.0970	0.1818	0.2121	0.3454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6710
predicted_AVG	0.2761
predicted_BB	0.6640
predicted_H	1.0140
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.2360
predicted_OBP	0.3900
predicted_R	0.6900
predicted_RBI	0.4590
predicted_SLG	0.5289
predicted_SO	1.1280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.2170	0.1917	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5870	3.6710	3.6216	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2761	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7610	0.6640	0.7210	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0140	0.9705	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2360	0.2266	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3900	0.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8260	0.6900	0.7699	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4590	0.4361	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5290	0.5289	0.5290	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2390	1.1280	1.1932	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ryan McMahon (641857) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 31

All-history rows before 20260517: 31

System season_avg: 0.1630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1635

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.355	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.355	4.000	-0.355	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_BB	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.216	0.000	0.034	0.250
predicted_R	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_SO	1.194	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.194	2.000	-0.194	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.355	-
predicted_AVG	0.155	-
predicted_BB	0.226	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.193	-
predicted_R	0.258	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.241	-
predicted_SO	1.194	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.434	0.079
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.000
predicted_BB	0.204	-0.022
predicted_H	0.490	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.000
predicted_R	0.264	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.241	0.000
predicted_SO	1.193	-0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.434	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.143	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.206	0.002
predicted_H	0.491	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.066	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.192	-0.002
predicted_R	0.267	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.273	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.222	-0.019
predicted_SO	1.179	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.143 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.083)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	8.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4210
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	12.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2778	0.1667	0.0278	0.1111	0.0000	0.3333
season	0.60	31	-	104.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	37.000	0.1635	0.2162	0.2404	0.1635	0.0192	0.0865	0.0673	0.3558

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5580
predicted_AVG	0.1554
predicted_BB	0.1690
predicted_H	0.5530
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.1933
predicted_R	0.2740
predicted_RBI	0.3020
predicted_SLG	0.2413
predicted_SO	1.1910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0650	0.0840	0.0724	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3550	3.5580	3.4337	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1550	0.1554	0.1552	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2260	0.1690	0.2039	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5530	0.4899	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0720	0.0647	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1930	0.1933	0.1931	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2580	0.2740	0.2642	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3020	0.2702	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2410	0.2413	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1940	1.1910	1.1928	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.163

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	641857
playerID	641857
playerName	Ryan McMahon
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Anthony Volpe (683011) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 3

All-history rows before 20260517: 3

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2439

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.178	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	2.083	1.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	1.667	2.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.300	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.500	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.455	0.500	0.045	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.289	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.178	-
predicted_BB	2.083	-
predicted_H	0.300	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.289	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.027
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.693	0.193
predicted_AVG	0.178	0.000
predicted_BB	1.809	-0.274
predicted_H	0.369	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.049	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.074	0.074
predicted_RBI	0.186	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.289	0.000
predicted_SO	0.835	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.693	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.137	-0.041
predicted_BB	1.831	0.022
predicted_H	0.370	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.486	0.142
predicted_R	0.074	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.187	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.204	-0.085
predicted_SO	0.825	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.137 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	2.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	2.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total BB	Total SO	OBP	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	6.000	5.000	2.000	0.4545	0.8333	0.3333
last_10	0.20	3	-	6.000	5.000	2.000	0.4545	0.8333	0.3333
season	0.60	3	-	6.000	5.000	2.000	0.4545	0.8333	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.3160
predicted_AVG	0.1785
predicted_BB	0.9220
predicted_H	0.5920
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_OBP	0.3452
predicted_R	0.3130
predicted_RBI	0.3010
predicted_SLG	0.2889
predicted_SO	0.8420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1150	0.0271	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.3160	2.6926	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1780	0.1785	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	2.0830	0.9220	1.8090	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3000	0.5920	0.3689	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0780	0.0490	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3452	0.3450	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3130	0.0739	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.3010	0.1856	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2890	0.2889	0.2890	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.8420	0.8351	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	683011
playerID	683011
playerName	Anthony Volpe
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ben Rice (700250) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 37

All-history rows before 20260517: 37

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2993

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.703	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.703	4.000	-0.703	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.000	-0.299	0.000
predicted_BB	0.649	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.649	0.000	0.351	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.108	0.000	-1.108	0.000
predicted_HR	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.409	0.200	-0.159	0.050
predicted_R	0.865	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.865	1.000	-0.865	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.757	0.000	-0.757	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.577	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_SO	1.081	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.081	0.000	-1.081	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.703	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.649	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.376	-
predicted_R	0.865	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.577	-
predicted_SO	1.081	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.736	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.593	-0.056
predicted_H	1.019	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.082	-
predicted_HR	0.300	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.376	-0.000
predicted_R	0.827	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.599	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.577	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.063	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.736	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.600	0.007
predicted_H	1.021	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.082	0.000
predicted_HR	0.304	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.374	-0.002
predicted_R	0.834	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.605	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.575	-0.001
predicted_SO	1.050	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.081

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.6000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1500	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	11.000	0.2368	0.3256	0.5000	0.2368	0.0790	0.1053	0.1053	0.2895
season	0.60	37	-	137.000	41.000	9.000	13.000	28.000	32.000	24.000	40.000	0.2993	0.4085	0.6496	0.2993	0.0949	0.2044	0.1752	0.2920

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1710
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7840
predicted_AVG	0.2803
predicted_BB	0.5110
predicted_H	1.0610
predicted_HBP	0.0820
predicted_HR	0.3150
predicted_OBP	0.3756
predicted_R	0.7700
predicted_RBI	0.6280
predicted_SLG	0.5765
predicted_SO	1.0370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.1710	0.2139	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7030	3.7840	3.7358	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2803	0.2801	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6490	0.5110	0.5931	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.0610	1.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0820	0.0820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.3150	0.3001	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3760	0.3756	0.3758	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8650	0.7700	0.8265	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6280	0.5994	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5770	0.5765	0.5768	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0810	1.0370	1.0632	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	700250
playerID	700250
playerName	Ben Rice
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2593

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.068	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_AB	3.682	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.682	5.000	-0.682	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.000	0.074	0.333
predicted_BB	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.955	0.000	0.045	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	0.886	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.000	0.137	0.500
predicted_R	0.614	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.614	0.000	0.386	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.354	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.457	0.000	0.877	1.333
predicted_SO	0.591	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.591	2.000	1.409	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.068	-
predicted_AB	3.682	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.636	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.614	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.354	-
predicted_SO	0.591	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.063	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.712	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.606	-0.030
predicted_H	0.746	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.072	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.585	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.508	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.000
predicted_SO	0.620	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.000
predicted_3B	0.063	0.000
predicted_AB	3.712	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.613	0.007
predicted_H	0.748	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.007
predicted_R	0.590	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.513	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.003
predicted_SO	0.613	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.0500	0.1364	0.1000	0.0500	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	6.000	0.1892	0.3182	0.2703	0.1892	0.0000	0.1081	0.1892	0.1622
season	0.60	44	-	162.000	42.000	11.000	3.000	5.000	28.000	27.000	28.000	26.000	0.2593	0.3627	0.4568	0.2593	0.0309	0.1728	0.1728	0.1605

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2070
predicted_3B	0.0560
predicted_AB	3.7560
predicted_AVG	0.2089
predicted_BB	0.5630
predicted_H	0.7840
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_OBP	0.3081
predicted_R	0.5430
predicted_RBI	0.5350
predicted_SLG	0.3544
predicted_SO	0.6620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2070	0.2323	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0680	0.0560	0.0631	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6820	3.7560	3.7124	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2089	0.2090	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6360	0.5630	0.6060	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7840	0.7463	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0760	0.0725	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3081	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6140	0.5430	0.5848	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5350	0.5085	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3540	0.3544	0.3542	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5910	0.6620	0.6202	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Spencer Jones (682987) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 6

All-history rows before 20260517: 6

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.667	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.667	4.000	1.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.500	-0.188	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.500	-0.316	-0.500
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.188	0.500	-0.188	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.167	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	1.000	0.833	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.323	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.027
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.866	0.199
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.460	-0.040
predicted_H	0.599	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.047	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.073	0.073
predicted_RBI	0.339	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000
predicted_SO	1.110	-0.057

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.866	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.466	0.006
predicted_H	0.601	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.048	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.012
predicted_R	0.073	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.342	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.271	-0.052
predicted_SO	1.097	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2143	0.3125	0.2143	0.2143	0.1429	0.1429	0.3571
last_10	0.20	6	-	16.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.1875	0.1875	0.1250	0.1875	0.4375
season	0.60	6	-	16.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.1875	0.1875	0.1250	0.1875	0.4375

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.4030
predicted_AVG	0.2307
predicted_BB	0.3530
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.3082
predicted_R	0.2690
predicted_RBI	0.4430
predicted_SLG	0.3231
predicted_SO	0.9570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0990	0.0268	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6670	3.4030	2.8664	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2307	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3530	0.4602	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.7850	0.5991	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0670	0.0473	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3082	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.2690	0.0729	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.4430	0.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3230	0.3231	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	0.9570	1.1101	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	682987
playerID	682987
playerName	Spencer Jones
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYY
teamID	19

Trent Grisham (663757) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 38

All-history rows before 20260517: 38

System season_avg: 0.1680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1679

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1840

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.605	4.000	-0.605	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.168	0.250	-0.168	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.711	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.711	0.000	0.289	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.605	1.000	-0.605	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.250	-0.101	-0.050
predicted_R	0.605	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.605	0.000	0.395	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.579	1.000	0.421	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.314	0.250	-0.314	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.789	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.789	3.000	0.211	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.605	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	0.711	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.605	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	0.789	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.610	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000
predicted_BB	0.678	-0.033
predicted_H	0.606	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.570	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.616	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.316	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.823	0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.610	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.168	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.686	0.008
predicted_H	0.608	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.123	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.009
predicted_R	0.575	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.621	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.007
predicted_SO	0.813	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.1176	0.2857	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.2353	0.2353	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	5.000	10.000	0.1622	0.2619	0.2703	0.1622	0.0270	0.1892	0.1351	0.2703
season	0.60	38	-	137.000	23.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	22.000	23.000	27.000	30.000	0.1679	0.3012	0.3139	0.1679	0.0292	0.1606	0.1971	0.2190

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1230
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.6160
predicted_AVG	0.1701
predicted_BB	0.6300
predicted_H	0.6150
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_OBP	0.2925
predicted_R	0.5180
predicted_RBI	0.6240
predicted_SLG	0.3156
predicted_SO	0.8720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1230	0.1438	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0150	0.0215	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6050	3.6160	3.6095	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1701	0.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7110	0.6300	0.6782	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6150	0.6061	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1240	0.1216	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2925	0.2922	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6050	0.5180	0.5697	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6240	0.6157	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3156	0.3158	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7890	0.8720	0.8226	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.168

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	663757
playerID	663757
playerName	Trent Grisham
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (695684) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 2

All-history rows before 20260517: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	2.500	3.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	5.000	6.000	2.000	1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.100	4.200	0.000	-0.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	2.500	2.000	1.500	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	8.200	5.000	10.000	8.000	5.000	5.1923	2.0769	0.5769	1.1539	0.9231	0.5769
last_10	0.35	2	8.200	5.000	10.000	8.000	5.000	5.1923	2.0769	0.5769	1.1539	0.9231	0.5769
season	0.20	2	8.200	5.000	10.000	8.000	5.000	5.1923	2.0769	0.5769	1.1539	0.9231	0.5769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.4420
predicted_ER	2.2760
predicted_ERA	4.4802
predicted_H	4.5700
predicted_HR	0.4240
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	3.8700
predicted_WHIP	1.5339

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.4420	2.8057	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.2760	3.3997	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4802	4.4802	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.5700	6.1539	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4240	0.7994	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.8700	3.9547	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5339	1.5339	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	7
R	4
ER	4
BB	3
SO	4
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	100

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	5.19
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	695684
playerID	695684
playerName	Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.524	0.000	0.476	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.238	0.000	1.762	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.667	1.000	2.333	2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.590	1.100	0.610	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.190	1.000	-1.190	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	0.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.7241	0.4138	1.2414	0.0000
season	0.20	21	18.000	5.000	14.000	11.000	25.000	2.000	2.5000	1.3889	0.2778	0.7778	0.6111	1.3889	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4030
predicted_ER	0.3450
predicted_ERA	3.1075
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0640
predicted_WHIP	1.2607

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4030	0.7591	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3450	1.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1075	3.1075	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.8580	2.1355	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0850	0.0343	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0640	0.4294	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2607	1.2607	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	9
Pitches	36

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	1.000	-0.316	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.421	1.000	-0.421	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.105	2.000	-0.105	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.926	1.000	0.074	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	0.000	0.842	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	5.0625	0.9375	0.5625	0.7500	0.1875	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	4.000	10.000	1.000	10.000	1.000	3.4839	1.0645	0.3871	0.9677	0.0968	0.9677	0.0968
season	0.20	19	19.000	8.000	21.000	6.000	22.000	1.000	3.7895	1.4211	0.4210	1.1053	0.3158	1.1579	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_ER	0.3800
predicted_ERA	4.2212
predicted_H	0.7460
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8160
predicted_WHIP	1.2144

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2380	0.0974	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3800	0.1555	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2212	4.2212	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7460	0.8961	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1050	0.0430	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8160	1.5155	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2144	1.2144	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Tim Hill (657612) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	2.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.695	0.100	0.305	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.2500	1.2500	0.2500	1.2500	0.0000	0.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.100	1.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	1.2273	1.3636	0.1364	1.0909	0.2727	0.4091	0.0000
season	0.20	21	18.100	3.000	14.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.4727	0.8727	0.1636	0.7636	0.1091	0.3818	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1870
predicted_ER	0.2440
predicted_ERA	3.1597
predicted_H	0.6980
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4810
predicted_WHIP	1.2736

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1870	0.0758	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2440	0.0989	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1597	3.1597	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6980	0.2830	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0550	0.0223	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4810	1.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2736	1.2736	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.47
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	657612
playerID	657612
playerName	Tim Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Home Team: NYM

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2236

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.578	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.578	4.000	0.422	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.000	0.526	0.750
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	2.200	3.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	0.933	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.284	0.000	0.466	0.750
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	4.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.311	0.000	3.689	4.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.363	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.317	0.000	1.183	1.500
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.578	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.363	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.608	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.311	0.022
predicted_H	0.774	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.108	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.372	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.282	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.000
predicted_SO	0.817	0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.608	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.306	-0.005
predicted_H	0.747	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.032
predicted_R	0.351	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.266	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.327	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.829	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	4.000	4.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	8.000	0.2778	0.3659	0.4722	0.2778	0.0556	0.0833	0.1389	0.2222
season	0.60	45	-	161.000	36.000	6.000	3.000	14.000	15.000	13.000	36.000	0.2236	0.2841	0.3168	0.2236	0.0186	0.0870	0.0808	0.2236

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6520
predicted_AVG	0.2336
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	0.8530
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1190
predicted_OBP	0.3014
predicted_R	0.4300
predicted_RBI	0.3140
predicted_SLG	0.3635
predicted_SO	0.8410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1120	0.1244	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5780	3.6520	3.6081	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2336	0.2338	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.3430	0.3110	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8530	0.7742	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1190	0.1077	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3014	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4300	0.3725	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3140	0.2820	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3630	0.3635	0.3632	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8410	0.8167	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 34

All-history rows before 20260517: 34

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2276

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	1.000	0.824	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.618	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.618	4.000	-0.618	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.250	0.439	0.417
predicted_BB	0.206	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.206	0.000	0.794	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.824	1.000	1.176	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.250	0.477	0.500
predicted_R	0.412	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.647	3.000	-0.647	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.418	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.500	0.577	0.500
predicted_SO	0.824	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.824	1.000	-0.824	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.618	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.206	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.418	-
predicted_SO	0.824	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.680	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.193	-0.013
predicted_H	0.809	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.067	-
predicted_HR	0.166	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.000
predicted_SO	0.787	-0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.190	-0.003
predicted_H	0.780	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.157	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.025
predicted_R	0.404	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.640	-0.040
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.799	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.3000	0.0000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.2000	0.0250	0.1500
season	0.60	34	-	123.000	28.000	6.000	6.000	22.000	14.000	7.000	28.000	0.2276	0.2727	0.4228	0.2276	0.0488	0.1789	0.0569	0.2276

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7760
predicted_AVG	0.2298
predicted_BB	0.1720
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HBP	0.0670
predicted_HR	0.1740
predicted_OBP	0.2752
predicted_R	0.4540
predicted_RBI	0.7250
predicted_SLG	0.4183
predicted_SO	0.7310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1850	0.1796	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6180	3.7760	3.6805	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2298	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2060	0.1720	0.1925	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8680	0.8088	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0670	0.0670	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1740	0.1655	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2752	0.2751	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.4540	0.4286	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.7250	0.6797	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4180	0.4183	0.4181	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8240	0.7310	0.7872	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2099

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.022	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.022	3.000	0.978	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	-0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.311	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.311	1.000	-0.311	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.844	0.000	-0.844	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.250	-0.264	-0.250
predicted_R	0.422	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.422	2.000	-0.422	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.230	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.271	0.000	-0.271	0.000
predicted_SO	0.756	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.756	0.000	1.244	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.022	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.311	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.422	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.230	-
predicted_SO	0.756	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.971	-0.051
predicted_AVG	0.179	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	0.041
predicted_H	0.693	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.000
predicted_R	0.430	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.391	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.230	0.000
predicted_SO	0.738	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.971	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.168	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.347	-0.006
predicted_H	0.668	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.037	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.235	-0.023
predicted_R	0.405	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.368	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.222	-0.008
predicted_SO	0.750	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 4.022

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.1053	0.2273	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.1053	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	0.1081	0.2326	0.1081	0.1081	0.0000	0.0811	0.1622	0.1081
season	0.60	45	-	181.000	38.000	5.000	2.000	18.000	19.000	14.000	34.000	0.2099	0.2640	0.2707	0.2099	0.0111	0.0994	0.0774	0.1878

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0810
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8980
predicted_AVG	0.1786
predicted_BB	0.4120
predicted_H	0.6960
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.2576
predicted_R	0.4410
predicted_RBI	0.3920
predicted_SLG	0.2302
predicted_SO	0.7130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0810	0.0987	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0220	3.8980	3.9710	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1786	0.1788	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3110	0.4120	0.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.6960	0.6925	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0390	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2576	0.2578	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4220	0.4410	0.4298	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3920	0.3908	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2300	0.2302	0.2301	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7560	0.7130	0.7383	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYM
teamID	18

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 29

All-history rows before 20260517: 29

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.6000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.724	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.724	2.000	0.276	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.278	1.000	-0.028	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.621	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.621	2.000	0.379	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.034	2.000	-0.034	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.378	1.000	0.022	-0.600
predicted_R	0.517	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.517	1.000	0.483	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.483	0.000	-0.483	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.525	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	1.000	-0.250	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.690	0.000	0.310	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.724	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.621	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.517	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.525	-
predicted_SO	0.690	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.035	0.001
predicted_AB	3.714	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.587	-0.034
predicted_H	1.027	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.234	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.373	-0.000
predicted_R	0.552	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.539	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.525	0.000
predicted_SO	0.703	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.000
predicted_3B	0.035	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.578	-0.009
predicted_H	0.991	-0.036
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.221	-0.013
predicted_OBP	0.365	-0.007
predicted_R	0.520	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.508	-0.031
predicted_SLG	0.497	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.714	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.059

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.3889	0.4762	0.7222	0.3889	0.1111	0.2222	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.5556	0.2500	0.0833	0.1667	0.1389	0.1667
season	0.60	29	-	108.000	30.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	14.000	15.000	18.000	20.000	0.2778	0.3780	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.1296	0.1667	0.1852

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1000
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.6980
predicted_AVG	0.2848
predicted_BB	0.5340
predicted_H	1.0530
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.2390
predicted_OBP	0.3727
predicted_R	0.6060
predicted_RBI	0.5530
predicted_SLG	0.5249
predicted_SO	0.7240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.1000	0.1230	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0360	0.0348	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7240	3.6980	3.7138	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2848	0.2849	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6210	0.5340	0.5867	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0530	1.0269	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2390	0.2335	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3727	0.3729	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5170	0.6060	0.5521	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5530	0.5391	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5250	0.5249	0.5250	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6900	0.7240	0.7034	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Carson Benge (701807) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 37

All-history rows before 20260517: 37

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2481

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	1.000	-0.162	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.595	4.000	1.405	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.750	-0.048	-0.550
predicted_BB	0.297	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.297	0.000	-0.297	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.892	3.000	0.108	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.750	-0.106	-0.550
predicted_R	0.514	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.514	2.000	0.486	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.361	1.000	-0.161	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.757	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.757	0.000	1.243	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.595	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.297	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.413	-
predicted_SO	0.757	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.702	0.107
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000
predicted_BB	0.274	-0.023
predicted_H	1.092	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.000
predicted_R	0.548	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.397	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000
predicted_SO	0.736	-0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.702	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.004
predicted_H	1.054	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.333	-0.010
predicted_R	0.516	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.374	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.748	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	0.4348	0.4348	0.4783	0.4348	0.0000	0.0870	0.0000	0.0870
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	15.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	8.000	2.000	6.000	0.3750	0.4048	0.5250	0.3750	0.0250	0.1500	0.0500	0.1500
season	0.60	37	-	133.000	33.000	6.000	3.000	13.000	19.000	11.000	28.000	0.2481	0.3056	0.3609	0.2481	0.0226	0.0977	0.0827	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1940
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8630
predicted_AVG	0.2993
predicted_BB	0.2400
predicted_H	1.1560
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.3433
predicted_R	0.5990
predicted_RBI	0.4220
predicted_SLG	0.4134
predicted_SO	0.7050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1940	0.1748	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5950	3.8630	3.7021	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2993	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2970	0.2400	0.2742	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.1560	1.0924	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0810	0.0744	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3433	0.3431	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.5990	0.5480	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4220	0.3968	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4130	0.4134	0.4132	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7570	0.7050	0.7362	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	701807
playerID	701807
playerName	Carson Benge
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brett Baty (683146) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 35

All-history rows before 20260517: 35

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2439

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.514	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.514	4.000	-0.514	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.089	0.083
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.250	0.196	0.250
predicted_R	0.457	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	0.543	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	1.000	0.543	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.500	-0.033	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	3.000	-0.143	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.514	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.005
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.565	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	0.014
predicted_H	0.895	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000
predicted_R	0.465	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.472	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.000
predicted_SO	1.162	0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.565	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.296	-0.005
predicted_H	0.864	-0.031
predicted_HBP	0.036	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.037
predicted_R	0.438	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.445	-0.028
predicted_SLG	0.383	-0.038
predicted_SO	1.180	0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.5789	0.3684	0.0526	0.2105	0.1053	0.4210
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	13.000	0.2973	0.3810	0.4595	0.2973	0.0270	0.1351	0.1081	0.3513
season	0.60	35	-	123.000	30.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	16.000	16.000	10.000	40.000	0.2439	0.3037	0.3659	0.2439	0.0163	0.1301	0.0813	0.3252

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.6430
predicted_AVG	0.2730
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_H	0.9950
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.3370
predicted_R	0.4770
predicted_RBI	0.5210
predicted_SLG	0.4213
predicted_SO	1.1910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2130	0.2052	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0170	0.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5140	3.6430	3.5652	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2730	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3220	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9950	0.8955	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0980	0.0871	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3370	0.3370	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.4770	0.4649	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5210	0.4721	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4213	0.4211	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.1910	1.1620	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	683146
playerID	683146
playerName	Brett Baty
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYM
teamID	18

A.J. Ewing (805999) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 5

All-history rows before 20260517: 5

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	4.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	-0.250	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.250	-0.150	0.000
predicted_R	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.562	0.250	-0.562	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.200	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.800	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.462	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.028
predicted_3B	0.172	-0.028
predicted_AB	3.299	0.099
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.722	-0.078
predicted_H	0.712	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.000
predicted_R	0.754	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.436	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.000
predicted_SO	0.979	-0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.000
predicted_3B	0.172	0.000
predicted_AB	3.299	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.038
predicted_BB	0.711	-0.011
predicted_H	0.687	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.123	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.006
predicted_R	0.710	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.411	-0.025
predicted_SLG	0.433	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.995	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875	0.2500	0.3125
last_10	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875	0.2500	0.3125
season	0.60	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875	0.2500	0.3125

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1010
predicted_3B	0.0970
predicted_AB	3.5590
predicted_AVG	0.2464
predicted_BB	0.5150
predicted_H	0.8770
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.3431
predicted_R	0.6310
predicted_RBI	0.5320
predicted_SLG	0.4619
predicted_SO	0.9250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1010	0.0277	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.2000	0.0970	0.1717	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.5590	3.2985	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2464	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8000	0.5150	0.7218	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.8770	0.7123	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1570	0.1302	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3431	0.3430	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	0.6310	0.7536	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.5320	0.4362	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4620	0.4619	0.4620	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9250	0.9794	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	805999
playerID	805999
playerName	A.J. Ewing
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Hayden Senger (663584) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 1

All-history rows before 20260517: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2439

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.030
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.134	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.617	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.080	0.080
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.000
predicted_SO	0.140	0.140

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.134	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.046	-0.001
predicted_H	0.595	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.081	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.202	-0.075
predicted_R	0.076	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.377	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.278	-0.081
predicted_SO	0.142	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total RBI	RBI_per_AB
last_5	0.20	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333
season	0.60	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.7260
predicted_AVG	0.2218
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_H	0.8260
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.2774
predicted_R	0.4370
predicted_RBI	0.5330
predicted_SLG	0.3590
predicted_SO	0.7610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1610	0.0296	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.7260	3.1336	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2218	0.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2520	0.0464	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.8260	0.6171	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1090	0.0853	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2774	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4370	0.0804	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.5330	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3590	0.3590	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7610	0.1401	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	663584
playerID	663584
playerName	Hayden Senger
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYM
teamID	18

MJ Melendez (669004) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2800

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	2.778	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.778	4.000	1.222	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.250	0.220	0.250
predicted_BB	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	1.000	1.222	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.250	0.121	0.250
predicted_R	0.389	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	1.000	0.611	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.250	0.250	0.500
predicted_SO	1.111	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	3.000	-0.111	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	2.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.389	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.400	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.052	-0.004
predicted_AB	2.888	0.110
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.394	0.005
predicted_H	0.638	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.414	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.400	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.105	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.052	0.000
predicted_AB	2.888	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.388	-0.006
predicted_H	0.615	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.027
predicted_R	0.390	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.273	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.387	-0.013
predicted_SO	1.122	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.0714	0.2353	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.2143	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	25.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	10.000	0.2400	0.3667	0.4400	0.2400	0.0400	0.1200	0.1600	0.4000
season	0.60	18	-	50.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	20.000	0.2800	0.3793	0.5000	0.2800	0.0400	0.1200	0.1400	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1230
predicted_3B	0.0450
predicted_AB	3.0920
predicted_AVG	0.2349
predicted_BB	0.4020
predicted_H	0.7260
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.3334
predicted_R	0.4600
predicted_RBI	0.3260
predicted_SLG	0.3998
predicted_SO	1.0930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1230	0.1516	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0450	0.0521	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7780	3.0920	2.8880	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2349	0.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3890	0.4020	0.3936	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7260	0.6376	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0990	0.0867	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3334	0.3331	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.4600	0.4139	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3260	0.2896	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4000	0.3998	0.3999	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	1.0930	1.1047	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	669004
playerID	669004
playerName	MJ Melendez
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYM
teamID	18

Freddy Peralta (642547) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 9

All-history rows before 20260517: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.111	1.000	-0.111	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.889	2.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.556	7.000	-1.556	-4.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.300	6.000	-0.100	-0.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.556	7.000	-0.556	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.100	8.000	25.000	11.000	25.000	2.000	2.5412	1.2706	0.2823	0.8823	0.3882	0.8823	0.0706
last_10	0.35	9	49.100	17.000	41.000	19.000	50.000	5.000	3.1014	1.2162	0.3446	0.8311	0.3851	1.0135	0.1013
season	0.20	9	49.100	17.000	41.000	19.000	50.000	5.000	3.1014	1.2162	0.3446	0.8311	0.3851	1.0135	0.1013

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1450
predicted_ER	2.0290
predicted_ERA	3.2700
predicted_H	4.9680
predicted_HR	0.5550
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.2520
predicted_WHIP	1.2737

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.1450	2.0724	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0290	2.0145	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2700	3.2700	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.9680	3.9823	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.5550	1.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.2520	5.1258	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2737	1.2737	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	5
HR	2
BF	23
Pitches	106

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	100
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	68
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	642547
playerID	642547
playerName	Freddy Peralta
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.983	2.000	0.117	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.056	2.000	-0.056	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	0.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2632	0.0000	0.7895	0.4737	1.4210	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	2.000	9.000	4.000	15.000	1.000	1.5000	1.0833	0.1667	0.7500	0.3333	1.2500	0.0833
season	0.20	18	19.100	8.000	15.000	7.000	19.000	2.000	3.7241	1.1379	0.4138	0.7759	0.3621	0.9828	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5070
predicted_ER	0.4240
predicted_ERA	2.9251
predicted_H	1.1300
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4260
predicted_WHIP	1.2553

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5070	0.7974	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4240	0.1742	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9251	2.9251	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1300	0.4644	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1240	0.0510	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4260	1.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2553	1.2553	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.72
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.632	2.000	-0.632	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.795	0.200	0.205	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.105	1.000	0.895	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.4000	0.0000	1.0000	0.4000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	0.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0345	0.0000	0.7241	0.3103	1.2414	0.0000
season	0.20	19	17.200	2.000	12.000	6.000	21.000	1.000	1.0189	1.0189	0.1132	0.6793	0.3396	1.1887	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_ER	0.2830
predicted_ERA	2.5500
predicted_H	0.8970
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0240
predicted_WHIP	1.2669

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3700	0.1486	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2830	0.1137	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5500	2.5500	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8970	0.3603	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0810	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0240	1.6080	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2669	1.2669	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.02
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 17

All-history rows before 20260517: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.882	0.000	0.118	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.794	1.000	0.206	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.353	1.000	-1.353	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000	0.2143	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	6.000	1.000	15.000	0.000	1.9286	0.7500	0.2143	0.6429	0.1071	1.6071	0.0000
season	0.20	16	14.200	6.000	14.000	4.000	23.000	1.000	3.6818	1.2273	0.4091	0.9546	0.2727	1.5682	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3090
predicted_ER	0.3520
predicted_ERA	3.1709
predicted_H	0.7460
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1380
predicted_WHIP	1.0546

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3090	0.7354	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3520	0.7518	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1709	3.1709	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7460	0.9027	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0870	0.0333	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1380	0.4358	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0546	1.0546	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.91
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

20260517_PHI@PIT

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 PIT", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Season quality guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 PIT", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 PIT", "winner": "PIT"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PHI 1 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -2, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	PHI 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	PHI 1 - 5 PIT	PIT	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away PHI	7-3	0.700	5.20	4.10	11	3W	hot	average
Home PIT	5-5	0.500	4.90	4.70	2	2L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away PHI	23-23	0.500	-23	-0.500	True
Home PIT	24-22	0.522	24	0.522	True
Signal	-	-	1.022	1.054	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	PHI @ PIT	6 - 0	PHI	6	blowout
2026-05-15	PHI @ PIT	11 - 9	PHI	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target PHI	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target PIT	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized PHI	35	9	4	1	2	2	10
Player finalized PIT	33	8	5	0	3	3	9
Player model fractional PHI	33.81	7.78	4.31	1.23	4.07	3.02	7.79
Player model fractional PIT	33.69	8.29	4.60	0.83	4.10	3.80	8.34
Simulation box PHI	34	7	1	0	1	1	7
Simulation box PIT	27	4	5	0	5	5	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away PHI	Starter	Zack Wheeler	6	2	6	1	2	3.47	1.15	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Jhoan Duran	1.10	0	1	0	1	3.32	1.31	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Brad Keller	0.20	3	0	3	2	3.62	1.38	True
Home PIT	Starter	Paul Skenes	6	0	7	2	1	2.32	0.81	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Dennis Santana	1	1	0	2	0	4.30	1.38	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Gregory Soto	1	0	0	1	0	4.22	1.23	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Mason Montgomery	1	0	0	2	0	3.12	1.14	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: PHI

Bryson Stott (681082) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 35

All-history rows before 20260517: 35

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2077

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	4.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.000	0.042	0.250
predicted_BB	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.229	1.000	-0.229	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.771	0.000	0.229	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.257	0.200	-0.007	0.050
predicted_R	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.354	0.000	-0.104	0.250
predicted_SO	0.657	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.657	1.000	-0.657	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.229	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	0.657	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.030
predicted_3B	0.047	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.731	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.229	0.000
predicted_H	0.737	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.390	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.429	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	0.650	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.000
predicted_3B	0.047	0.000
predicted_AB	3.731	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.228	-0.001
predicted_H	0.735	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.243	-0.017
predicted_R	0.387	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.427	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.335	-0.027
predicted_SO	0.654	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2381	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2439	0.3947	0.2105	0.0263	0.1579	0.0526	0.1579
season	0.60	35	-	130.000	27.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	16.000	13.000	8.000	23.000	0.2077	0.2571	0.3538	0.2077	0.0231	0.1231	0.0615	0.1769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2470
predicted_3B	0.0310
predicted_AB	3.7570
predicted_AVG	0.2150
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	0.8080
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.2603
predicted_R	0.4180
predicted_RBI	0.4740
predicted_SLG	0.3615
predicted_SO	0.6400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.2470	0.2013	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0310	0.0466	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.7570	3.7311	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2150	0.2150	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2290	0.2290	0.2290	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8080	0.7370	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0800	0.0740	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2603	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.4180	0.3897	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4740	0.4295	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3615	0.3612	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6570	0.6400	0.6502	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	681082
playerID	681082
playerName	Bryson Stott
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Adolis García (666969) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2160

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	5.000	0.233	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.200	0.034	0.050
predicted_BB	0.302	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.302	0.000	-0.302	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.814	1.000	0.186	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.227	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.200	-0.029	0.050
predicted_R	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.321	0.200	-0.071	0.050
predicted_SO	1.186	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.186	3.000	-1.186	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.767	-
predicted_AVG	0.180	-
predicted_BB	0.302	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.227	-
predicted_R	0.326	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.273	-
predicted_SO	1.186	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.816	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	-0.027
predicted_H	0.634	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.227	0.000
predicted_R	0.327	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.226	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.261	0.075

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.273	-0.001
predicted_H	0.633	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.222	-0.006
predicted_R	0.325	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.225	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.261	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.267	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	11.000	0.0476	0.0476	0.0476	0.0476	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5238
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	16.000	0.1500	0.1860	0.2500	0.1500	0.0250	0.0500	0.0500	0.4000
season	0.60	43	-	162.000	35.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	13.000	51.000	0.2160	0.2793	0.3210	0.2160	0.0185	0.0741	0.0803	0.3148

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1170
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8860
predicted_AVG	0.1799
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	0.6990
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.2273
predicted_R	0.3280
predicted_RBI	0.2500
predicted_SLG	0.2726
predicted_SO	1.3690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1400	0.1170	0.1306	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7670	3.8860	3.8156	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1800	0.1799	0.1800	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3020	0.2350	0.2747	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6990	0.6345	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0720	0.0649	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2270	0.2273	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3260	0.3280	0.3268	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2500	0.2263	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2730	0.2726	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1860	1.3690	1.2607	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	666969
playerID	666969
playerName	Adolis García
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

J.T. Realmuto (592663) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 27

All-history rows before 20260517: 27

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2234

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.481	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.481	3.000	-0.481	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.000	0.110	0.333
predicted_BB	0.222	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	1.000	0.778	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.250	0.212	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.298	0.000	0.035	0.333
predicted_SO	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.630	0.000	-0.630	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.481	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.274	-
predicted_SO	0.630	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.517	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.000
predicted_BB	0.218	-0.004
predicted_H	0.622	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.107	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.000
predicted_R	0.342	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.264	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.000
predicted_SO	0.651	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.517	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.217	-0.001
predicted_H	0.620	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.107	0.000
predicted_HR	0.035	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.224	-0.038
predicted_R	0.340	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.262	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.248	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.655	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.0588	0.1579	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.1892	0.2250	0.2432	0.1892	0.0000	0.1081	0.0270	0.1351
season	0.60	27	-	94.000	21.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	9.000	6.000	17.000	0.2234	0.2885	0.2979	0.2234	0.0106	0.0851	0.0638	0.1809

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1390
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5740
predicted_AVG	0.1971
predicted_BB	0.2130
predicted_H	0.7050
predicted_HBP	0.1070
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.2621
predicted_R	0.3550
predicted_RBI	0.3010
predicted_SLG	0.2740
predicted_SO	0.6860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.1390	0.1445	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4810	3.5740	3.5168	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1971	0.1970	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2130	0.2185	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7050	0.6219	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1070	0.1070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0430	0.0350	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2621	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3550	0.3415	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.3010	0.2635	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2740	0.2740	0.2740	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6300	0.6860	0.6515	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	592663
playerID	592663
playerName	J.T. Realmuto
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brandon Marsh (669016) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 39

All-history rows before 20260517: 39

System season_avg: 0.3310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3311

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2990

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.872	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.872	5.000	0.128	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.331	0.200	0.169	0.300
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.282	1.000	0.718	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.200	0.146	0.300
predicted_R	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.590	0.000	-0.590	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.564	0.000	-0.564	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.470	0.200	0.030	0.300
predicted_SO	0.744	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.744	2.000	-0.744	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.872	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.590	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.413	-
predicted_SO	0.744	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.028	0.002
predicted_AB	3.891	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000
predicted_BB	0.156	0.002
predicted_H	1.099	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000
predicted_R	0.579	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000
predicted_SO	0.732	-0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.891	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.155	-0.001
predicted_H	1.095	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.014
predicted_R	0.576	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.436	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.391	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.736	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.872

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	0.3590	0.3810	0.4359	0.3590	0.0000	0.1026	0.0513	0.1538
season	0.60	39	-	151.000	50.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	22.000	23.000	6.000	29.000	0.3311	0.3540	0.4702	0.3311	0.0265	0.1457	0.0397	0.1920

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0320
predicted_AB	3.9200
predicted_AVG	0.2984
predicted_BB	0.1580
predicted_H	1.1700
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.3233
predicted_R	0.5630
predicted_RBI	0.4650
predicted_SLG	0.4135
predicted_SO	0.7150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1700	0.1754	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0320	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8720	3.9200	3.8914	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2984	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.1580	0.1556	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.1700	1.0985	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0720	0.0648	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3233	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5900	0.5630	0.5791	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4650	0.4382	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4130	0.4135	0.4132	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7440	0.7150	0.7323	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.331

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	669016
playerID	669016
playerName	Brandon Marsh
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Alec Bohm (664761) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 41

All-history rows before 20260517: 41

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2026

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	1.000	-0.122	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.732	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.732	5.000	0.268	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.400	-0.203	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.756	2.000	-0.756	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.260	0.400	-0.260	-0.400
predicted_R	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.294	0.600	-0.294	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.561	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.561	0.000	1.439	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.732	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.268	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.293	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.366	-
predicted_SO	0.561	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.766	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.248	-0.020
predicted_H	0.913	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.030	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.327	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.393	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.000
predicted_SO	0.543	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.766	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.246	-0.001
predicted_H	0.910	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.084	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.008
predicted_R	0.325	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.391	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.546	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3810	0.3333	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.3243	0.3590	0.5405	0.3243	0.0541	0.1351	0.0541	0.0541
season	0.60	41	-	153.000	31.000	5.000	3.000	20.000	12.000	11.000	23.000	0.2026	0.2604	0.2941	0.2026	0.0196	0.1307	0.0719	0.1503

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8160
predicted_AVG	0.2517
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_H	0.9610
predicted_HBP	0.0300
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_OBP	0.2963
predicted_R	0.3760
predicted_RBI	0.4130
predicted_SLG	0.3659
predicted_SO	0.5180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.1570	0.1362	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7320	3.8160	3.7661	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2517	0.2519	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2680	0.2180	0.2477	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9610	0.9129	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0300	0.0300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0920	0.0849	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2963	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2930	0.3760	0.3267	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4130	0.3934	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3660	0.3659	0.3660	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5610	0.5180	0.5435	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	664761
playerID	664761
playerName	Alec Bohm
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Kyle Schwarber (656941) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 46

All-history rows before 20260517: 46

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2370

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	1.000	-0.174	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.761	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.761	4.000	0.239	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.250	-0.237	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.674	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.674	1.000	-0.674	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.891	1.000	-0.891	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.400	-0.365	-0.400
predicted_R	0.717	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.717	1.000	-0.717	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.980	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.783	1.000	-0.783	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.744	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.642	0.500	-0.642	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.435	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.435	2.000	-1.435	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.761	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.674	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.500	-
predicted_OBP	0.385	-
predicted_R	0.717	-
predicted_RBI	0.980	-
predicted_SLG	0.744	-
predicted_SO	1.435	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.004
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.790	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000
predicted_BB	0.672	-0.002
predicted_H	0.991	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.050	-
predicted_HR	0.515	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.385	-0.000
predicted_R	0.752	0.035
predicted_RBI	1.012	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.744	0.000
predicted_SO	1.407	-0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.790	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.669	-0.004
predicted_H	0.988	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.050	0.000
predicted_HR	0.509	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.371	-0.013
predicted_R	0.747	-0.004
predicted_RBI	1.006	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.720	-0.024
predicted_SO	1.414	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.134

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	9.000	5.000	5.000	7.000	0.3158	0.4583	1.0000	0.3158	0.2105	0.4737	0.2632	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	14.000	2.000	0.000	9.000	16.000	11.000	6.000	15.000	0.3415	0.4255	1.0488	0.3415	0.2195	0.3902	0.1463	0.3659
season	0.60	46	-	173.000	41.000	8.000	1.000	20.000	36.000	33.000	31.000	66.000	0.2370	0.3654	0.6416	0.2370	0.1156	0.2081	0.1792	0.3815

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.8320
predicted_AVG	0.2699
predicted_BB	0.6700
predicted_H	1.0340
predicted_HBP	0.0500
predicted_HR	0.5360
predicted_OBP	0.3845
predicted_R	0.8010
predicted_RBI	1.0570
predicted_SLG	0.7443
predicted_SO	1.3670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1840	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7610	3.8320	3.7903	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2699	0.2700	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6740	0.6700	0.6723	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0340	0.9906	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0500	0.0500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.5000	0.5360	0.5149	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3850	0.3845	0.3848	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7170	0.8010	0.7517	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9800	1.0570	1.0118	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7440	0.7443	0.7441	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4350	1.3670	1.4069	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	656941
playerID	656941
playerName	Kyle Schwarber
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.2830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2831

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.689	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.689	3.000	0.311	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.283	0.333	-0.033	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.578	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.578	2.000	-0.578	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.044	1.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.244	1.000	-0.244	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.378	0.600	-0.128	-0.350
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.644	3.000	-0.644	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.528	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.548	1.333	-0.048	-0.833
predicted_SO	0.711	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.711	2.000	1.289	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.689	-
predicted_AVG	0.288	-
predicted_BB	0.578	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.528	-
predicted_SO	0.711	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.718	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.000
predicted_BB	0.572	-0.006
predicted_H	1.040	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.237	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.000
predicted_R	0.596	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.699	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.528	0.000
predicted_SO	0.751	0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.569	-0.003
predicted_H	1.036	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.235	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.375	-0.005
predicted_R	0.592	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.694	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.524	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.755	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.063

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.4500	0.3000	0.0500	0.2500	0.1500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	12.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	7.000	0.3243	0.4318	0.6486	0.3243	0.1081	0.2432	0.1892	0.1892
season	0.60	45	-	166.000	47.000	9.000	1.000	11.000	29.000	27.000	26.000	32.000	0.2831	0.3782	0.5482	0.2831	0.0663	0.1747	0.1566	0.1928

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1300
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7590
predicted_AVG	0.2879
predicted_BB	0.5640
predicted_H	1.0820
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2480
predicted_OBP	0.3799
predicted_R	0.5890
predicted_RBI	0.7250
predicted_SLG	0.5280
predicted_SO	0.8080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1300	0.1713	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0140	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6890	3.7590	3.7177	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2880	0.2879	0.2880	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5780	0.5640	0.5723	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0820	1.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2480	0.2374	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3799	0.3800	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.5890	0.5955	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7250	0.6985	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5280	0.5280	0.5280	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7110	0.8080	0.7508	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.283

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Justin Crawford (702222) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 37

All-history rows before 20260517: 37

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2823

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	0.000	0.811	1.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	3.351	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.351	2.000	-0.351	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.000	0.051	0.333
predicted_BB	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.351	2.000	-0.351	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.946	0.000	0.054	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.500	-0.026	-0.167
predicted_R	0.324	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.324	1.000	0.676	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.730	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.000	0.247	0.667
predicted_SO	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.730	0.000	0.270	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	3.351	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.351	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.324	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.435	-
predicted_SO	0.730	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.044	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.337	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.393	0.042
predicted_H	0.819	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.107	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000
predicted_R	0.346	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.287	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.000
predicted_SO	0.735	0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.337	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.391	-0.002
predicted_H	0.817	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.038
predicted_R	0.344	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.285	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.417	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.739	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.2143	0.3889	0.4286	0.2143	0.0714	0.0714	0.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	0.3125	0.4054	0.5312	0.3125	0.0625	0.1250	0.1562	0.2500
season	0.60	37	-	124.000	35.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	12.000	13.000	27.000	0.2823	0.3597	0.4194	0.2823	0.0161	0.0806	0.1048	0.2177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0290
predicted_AB	3.3150
predicted_AVG	0.2693
predicted_BB	0.4560
predicted_H	0.8930
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.3623
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.3120
predicted_SLG	0.4350
predicted_SO	0.7420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.1370	0.1683	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0290	0.0440	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3510	3.3150	3.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2693	0.2691	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3510	0.4560	0.3928	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8930	0.8190	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1180	0.1072	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3623	0.3621	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3240	0.3800	0.3463	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3120	0.2867	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4350	0.4350	0.4350	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7300	0.7420	0.7348	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	702222
playerID	702222
playerName	Justin Crawford
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Trea Turner (607208) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2366

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.227	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.227	4.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.500	-0.237	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.295	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.295	1.000	-0.295	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.285	0.600	-0.285	-0.600
predicted_R	0.659	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.659	2.000	-0.659	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.318	1.000	-0.318	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.750	-0.344	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.977	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.977	1.000	1.023	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.227	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.295	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	0.977	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.243	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	-0.020
predicted_H	0.954	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000
predicted_R	0.682	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.345	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.320	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.015	0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.243	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.274	-0.001
predicted_H	0.952	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.003
predicted_R	0.678	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.343	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.312	-0.008
predicted_SO	1.020	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 4.227

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	0.1818	0.2083	0.2273	0.1818	0.0000	0.0909	0.0454	0.3182
last_10	0.20	10	-	46.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	0.2391	0.2500	0.2826	0.2391	0.0000	0.0652	0.0217	0.2609
season	0.60	44	-	186.000	44.000	8.000	4.000	14.000	29.000	13.000	43.000	0.2366	0.2850	0.3441	0.2366	0.0215	0.0753	0.0699	0.2312

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.2660
predicted_AVG	0.2285
predicted_BB	0.2470
predicted_H	0.9750
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.2682
predicted_R	0.7160
predicted_RBI	0.3520
predicted_SLG	0.3197
predicted_SO	1.0690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1880	0.1845	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2270	4.2660	4.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2285	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2950	0.2470	0.2752	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9750	0.9544	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0660	0.0625	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2682	0.2681	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.7160	0.6825	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3520	0.3449	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3197	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9770	1.0690	1.0149	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	607208
playerID	607208
playerName	Trea Turner
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

Zack Wheeler (554430) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 4

All-history rows before 20260517: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	0.000	0.500	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.750	1.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	4.250	6.000	-3.250	-5.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.050	7.100	-0.050	-1.100
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.500	4.000	0.500	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	24.200	7.000	17.000	6.000	22.000	1.000	2.5541	0.9324	0.2838	0.6892	0.2432	0.8919	0.0405
last_10	0.35	4	24.200	7.000	17.000	6.000	22.000	1.000	2.5541	0.9324	0.2838	0.6892	0.2432	0.8919	0.0405
season	0.20	4	24.200	7.000	17.000	6.000	22.000	1.000	2.5541	0.9324	0.2838	0.6892	0.2432	0.8919	0.0405

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9110
predicted_ER	2.3110
predicted_ERA	3.4660
predicted_H	4.9650
predicted_HR	0.5410
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	5.5590
predicted_WHIP	1.1459

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.9110	1.9630	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3110	2.1291	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4660	3.4660	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	4.9650	2.6465	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5410	0.2247	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	5.5590	5.8169	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1459	1.1459	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	6
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	103

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.55
Pitching_Flyouts	7
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.1
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	554430
playerID	554430
playerName	Zack Wheeler
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jhoan Duran (661395) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 13

All-history rows before 20260517: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.385	1.000	0.615	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.862	1.000	0.238	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.462	3.000	-0.462	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	1.8000	1.6000	0.2000	0.6000	1.0000	2.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	16.000	0.9000	1.0000	0.1000	0.5000	0.5000	1.6000
season	0.20	12	11.200	2.000	8.000	5.000	19.000	1.5429	1.1143	0.1714	0.6857	0.4286	1.6286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4840
predicted_ER	0.3690
predicted_ERA	3.3213
predicted_H	0.8250
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2460
predicted_WHIP	1.3092

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4840	0.8136	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3690	0.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3213	3.3213	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8250	0.2980	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0890	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2460	1.0889	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3092	1.3092	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	661395
playerID	661395
playerName	Jhoan Duran
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	1.684	2.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.421	0.000	2.579	3.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.895	1.000	2.105	2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.921	1.000	-0.721	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.211	2.000	-1.211	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	1.8000	1.8000	0.2000	1.4000	0.4000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	9.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.9000	0.3000	1.4000	0.1000
season	0.20	19	18.200	8.000	17.000	6.000	23.000	2.000	3.8571	1.2321	0.4286	0.9107	0.3214	1.2321	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2960
predicted_ER	0.3250
predicted_ERA	3.6191
predicted_H	0.8230
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9440
predicted_WHIP	1.3847

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.2960	1.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3250	1.9104	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6191	3.6191	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.8230	2.1133	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0800	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9440	0.3845	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3847	1.3847	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Home Team: PIT

Henry Davis (680779) · BATTER · C · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 27

All-history rows before 20260517: 27

System season_avg: 0.1460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1461

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.296	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.296	3.000	-1.296	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_BB	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.370	0.000	0.630	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.481	0.000	-0.481	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.333	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.248	0.000	0.086	0.333
predicted_R	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.247	0.000	-0.247	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.296	-
predicted_AVG	0.152	-
predicted_BB	0.370	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.262	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.323	0.027
predicted_AVG	0.152	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.030
predicted_H	0.462	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.084	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.262	-0.000
predicted_R	0.352	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.313	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.262	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.323	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.140	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.403	0.002
predicted_H	0.466	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.041	0.000
predicted_HR	0.086	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.028
predicted_R	0.357	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.318	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.249	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.664	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.140 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	0.0667	0.2632	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0667	0.2667	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.1212	0.2368	0.3030	0.1212	0.0606	0.1515	0.1515	0.2121
season	0.60	27	-	89.000	13.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	10.000	10.000	18.000	0.1461	0.2475	0.2472	0.1461	0.0225	0.0899	0.1124	0.2023

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3660
predicted_AVG	0.1524
predicted_BB	0.4490
predicted_H	0.5130
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_OBP	0.2615
predicted_R	0.3220
predicted_RBI	0.3490
predicted_SLG	0.2618
predicted_SO	0.6680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0890	0.1026	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2960	3.3660	3.3228	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1520	0.1524	0.1522	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3700	0.4490	0.4003	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5130	0.4618	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0910	0.0842	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2615	0.2618	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.3220	0.3516	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3490	0.3126	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2620	0.2618	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6680	0.6674	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.146

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	680779
playerID	680779
playerName	Henry Davis
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PIT
teamID	22

Oneil Cruz (665833) · BATTER · DH · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0520

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.279	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.279	4.000	-1.279	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.372	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.372	0.000	0.628	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.116	0.000	-1.116	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.000	-0.077	0.250
predicted_R	0.814	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.814	0.000	0.186	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.744	0.000	-0.744	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.449	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.473	0.000	-0.473	0.000
predicted_SO	1.605	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.605	3.000	-0.605	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.279	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.372	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.814	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.449	-
predicted_SO	1.605	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.221	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.379	0.007
predicted_H	1.107	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.151	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.000
predicted_R	0.808	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.449	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.577	-0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.221	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.381	0.002
predicted_H	1.119	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.154	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.010
predicted_R	0.822	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.631	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.432	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.568	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.279

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.4500	0.3000	0.0000	0.1500	0.1000	0.4500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	5.000	16.000	0.2683	0.3617	0.4146	0.2683	0.0244	0.0976	0.1220	0.3902
season	0.60	43	-	184.000	48.000	9.000	10.000	32.000	35.000	16.000	69.000	0.2609	0.3267	0.4728	0.2609	0.0544	0.1739	0.0870	0.3750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2920
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1370
predicted_AVG	0.2668
predicted_BB	0.3880
predicted_H	1.1040
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_OBP	0.3364
predicted_R	0.8000
predicted_RBI	0.6210
predicted_SLG	0.4486
predicted_SO	1.5360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2090	0.2920	0.2432	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2790	4.1370	4.2205	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2668	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3720	0.3880	0.3786	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.1040	1.1075	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1520	0.1508	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3364	0.3362	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8140	0.8000	0.8082	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6210	0.6204	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4490	0.4486	0.4488	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.6050	1.5360	1.5766	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	665833
playerID	665833
playerName	Oneil Cruz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Nick Gonzales (693304) · BATTER · 3B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 37

All-history rows before 20260517: 37

System season_avg: 0.3260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3264

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.892	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.892	3.000	-1.892	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.321	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.326	0.667	-0.326	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.297	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.297	0.000	0.703	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.270	2.000	-1.270	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.667	0.114	-0.167
predicted_R	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.667	-0.375	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.730	0.000	-0.730	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.892	-
predicted_AVG	0.321	-
predicted_BB	0.297	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.381	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.730	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.914	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.321	0.000
predicted_BB	0.305	0.008
predicted_H	1.203	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.064	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.000
predicted_R	0.466	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.710	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.914	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.306	0.002
predicted_H	1.215	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.064	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	-0.021
predicted_R	0.473	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.454	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.706	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.310 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.892

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.4091	0.4348	0.5000	0.4091	0.0909	0.0454	0.0909
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.2895	0.3864	0.3421	0.2895	0.1053	0.1316	0.1579
season	0.60	37	-	144.000	47.000	7.000	19.000	17.000	11.000	27.000	0.3264	0.3861	0.3750	0.3264	0.1319	0.0764	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2220
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9470
predicted_AVG	0.3209
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_H	1.2670
predicted_HBP	0.0640
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.3814
predicted_R	0.4760
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.3937
predicted_SO	0.6800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.2220	0.2023	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8920	3.9470	3.9142	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3210	0.3209	0.3210	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2970	0.3160	0.3047	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.2670	1.2032	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0640	0.0640	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3810	0.3814	0.3812	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.4760	0.4659	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4710	0.4465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3937	0.3939	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7300	0.6800	0.7098	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.326

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	693304
playerID	693304
playerName	Nick Gonzales
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Brandon Lowe (664040) · BATTER · 2B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 39

All-history rows before 20260517: 39

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.897	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.897	3.000	-0.897	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.590	0.000	-0.590	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	0.000	-0.974	0.000
predicted_HR	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.795	0.000	0.205	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.532	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.559	0.000	-0.559	0.000
predicted_SO	1.051	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.051	2.000	-1.051	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.897	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.590	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.300	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.532	-
predicted_SO	1.051	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.028	0.002
predicted_AB	3.892	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.552	-0.038
predicted_H	0.885	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.305	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.640	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.763	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.532	0.000
predicted_SO	1.074	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.892	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.555	0.003
predicted_H	0.893	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.311	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.006
predicted_R	0.650	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.775	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.536	0.004
predicted_SO	1.068	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.080

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.267)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.897

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.4737	0.1579	0.1053	0.2105	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	5.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3261	0.6250	0.2500	0.1000	0.2500	0.1250	0.3000
season	0.60	39	-	152.000	38.000	9.000	1.000	12.000	31.000	26.000	23.000	41.000	0.2500	0.3503	0.5592	0.2500	0.0790	0.2039	0.1513	0.2697

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0320
predicted_AB	3.8840
predicted_AVG	0.2334
predicted_BB	0.4960
predicted_H	0.9060
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.3120
predicted_OBP	0.3204
predicted_R	0.6000
predicted_RBI	0.7820
predicted_SLG	0.5320
predicted_SO	1.1080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.1610	0.2025	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0320	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8970	3.8840	3.8917	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2334	0.2332	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5900	0.4960	0.5517	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9060	0.8847	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3000	0.3120	0.3049	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3204	0.3202	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6000	0.6397	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.7820	0.7630	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5320	0.5320	0.5320	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0510	1.1080	1.0742	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	664040
playerID	664040
playerName	Brandon Lowe
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Bryan Reynolds (668804) · BATTER · LF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2642

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	1.000	-0.136	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.614	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.614	4.000	-0.614	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.500	0.403	0.167
predicted_BB	0.773	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.773	0.000	0.227	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.955	2.000	1.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.398	0.500	0.352	0.250
predicted_R	0.659	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.659	0.000	0.341	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.591	0.000	0.409	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.403	0.750	0.264	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.614	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.773	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.376	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.383	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	0.004
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.658	0.044
predicted_AVG	0.278	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.690	-0.084
predicted_H	0.984	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.376	-0.000
predicted_R	0.608	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.518	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.383	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.876	-0.124

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.658	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.693	0.004
predicted_H	0.994	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.012
predicted_R	0.618	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.527	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.871	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.4000	0.3500	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	0.2703	0.3571	0.2973	0.2703	0.0000	0.1081	0.1351	0.0811
season	0.60	44	-	159.000	42.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	26.000	29.000	34.000	44.000	0.2642	0.3980	0.4025	0.2641	0.0252	0.1635	0.2138	0.2767

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.7200
predicted_AVG	0.2775
predicted_BB	0.5700
predicted_H	1.0320
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3756
predicted_R	0.5340
predicted_RBI	0.5440
predicted_SLG	0.3828
predicted_SO	0.6990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1460	0.1401	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0260	0.0372	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6140	3.7200	3.6576	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2775	0.2778	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7730	0.5700	0.6895	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0320	0.9837	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0621	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3760	0.3756	0.3758	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.5340	0.6076	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5440	0.5181	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3830	0.3828	0.3829	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6990	0.8762	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	668804
playerID	668804
playerName	Bryan Reynolds
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Jared Triolo (669707) · BATTER · RF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 13

All-history rows before 20260517: 13

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.462	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.462	3.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.111	0.333
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.769	0.000	0.231	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.048	0.333
predicted_R	0.154	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.154	0.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.317	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.267	0.000	0.067	0.333
predicted_SO	0.769	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	2.000	-0.769	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.462	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.154	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.317	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.475	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.235	0.004
predicted_H	0.740	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.184	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.247	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.317	0.000
predicted_SO	0.788	0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.475	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.236	0.001
predicted_H	0.748	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.042	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.032
predicted_R	0.187	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.251	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.295	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.784	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.2667	0.3125	0.2667	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.2812	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.2812
season	0.60	13	-	45.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	0.2222	0.2857	0.2667	0.2222	0.0444	0.0667	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1350
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5000
predicted_AVG	0.2394
predicted_BB	0.2420
predicted_H	0.8380
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.2974
predicted_R	0.2430
predicted_RBI	0.2790
predicted_SLG	0.3172
predicted_SO	0.8260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1350	0.1476	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4620	3.5000	3.4749	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2394	0.2391	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2420	0.2347	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8380	0.7402	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0430	0.0410	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2974	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1540	0.2430	0.1842	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2790	0.2466	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3170	0.3172	0.3171	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.8260	0.7883	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-1B
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	669707
playerID	669707
playerName	Jared Triolo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Jake Mangum (663968) · BATTER · CF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 16

All-history rows before 20260517: 16

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2656

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2660

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.000	-0.266	0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.062	0.000	-1.062	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.000	-0.319	0.000
predicted_R	0.562	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.297	0.000	-0.297	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.562	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.323	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.942	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.302	-0.010
predicted_H	0.930	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.536	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.199	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000
predicted_SO	1.008	0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.942	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.304	0.002
predicted_H	0.939	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.021
predicted_R	0.545	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.202	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.295	-0.028
predicted_SO	1.002	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.2353	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.3077	0.3571	0.3333	0.3077	0.0256	0.0769	0.2564
season	0.60	16	-	64.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	5.000	16.000	0.2656	0.3188	0.2969	0.2656	0.0156	0.0781	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1190
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.8410
predicted_AVG	0.2607
predicted_BB	0.2850
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.3143
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.2150
predicted_SLG	0.3231
predicted_SO	1.0210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1190	0.1228	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8410	3.9425	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2607	0.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.2850	0.3022	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0010	0.9301	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3143	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5620	0.4900	0.5360	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2150	0.1990	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3230	0.3231	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0210	1.0076	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	663968
playerID	663968
playerName	Jake Mangum
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Konnor Griffin (804606) · BATTER · SS · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 38

All-history rows before 20260517: 38

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2621

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	1.000	0.816	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.816	4.000	0.184	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.500	-0.012	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.500	-0.071	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	2.500	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.750	0.100	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.158	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.158	1.000	-0.158	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.816	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	1.158	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	0.015
predicted_3B	0.044	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.860	0.044
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.265	-0.024
predicted_H	0.925	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.525	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.395	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.000
predicted_SO	1.138	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	0.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.860	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.266	0.002
predicted_H	0.934	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.032	0.000
predicted_HR	0.074	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.013
predicted_R	0.534	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.402	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.131	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.816

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.3810	0.2857	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	0.2439	0.2727	0.3659	0.2439	0.0244	0.0976	0.0488	0.3171
season	0.60	38	-	145.000	38.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	19.000	19.000	11.000	44.000	0.2621	0.3208	0.4000	0.2621	0.0207	0.1310	0.0759	0.3034

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2200
predicted_3B	0.0300
predicted_AB	3.9260
predicted_AVG	0.2601
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	1.0210
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_OBP	0.3043
predicted_R	0.5620
predicted_RBI	0.4330
predicted_SLG	0.3903
predicted_SO	1.1080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.2200	0.1985	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0300	0.0437	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8160	3.9260	3.8604	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2601	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.2290	0.2648	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	1.0210	0.9250	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0770	0.0728	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3043	0.3041	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5620	0.5250	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4330	0.3954	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3903	0.3901	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1580	1.1080	1.1378	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	804606
playerID	804606
playerName	Konnor Griffin
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PIT
teamID	22

Spencer Horwitz (687462) · BATTER · 1B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 35

All-history rows before 20260517: 35

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2759

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.314	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.314	4.000	-0.314	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.500	-0.276	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.657	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.657	0.000	0.343	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.914	2.000	-0.914	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.408	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.394	0.500	-0.144	-0.250
predicted_R	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.371	1.000	-0.371	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.405	0.500	-0.405	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.514	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.514	1.000	1.486	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.314	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.657	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.408	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.459	-
predicted_SO	0.514	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	0.055
predicted_3B	0.031	0.002
predicted_AB	3.405	0.091
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000
predicted_BB	0.652	-0.005
predicted_H	0.974	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.408	0.000
predicted_R	0.408	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.533	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.459	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.553	0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.405	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.655	0.004
predicted_H	0.984	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.404	-0.004
predicted_R	0.414	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.542	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.421	-0.038
predicted_SO	0.550	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.4211	0.5217	0.6316	0.4210	0.0000	0.2105	0.2105	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	12.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	4.000	8.000	5.000	0.3243	0.4444	0.5135	0.3243	0.0000	0.2162	0.2162	0.1351
season	0.60	35	-	116.000	32.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	17.000	13.000	23.000	18.000	0.2759	0.3944	0.4052	0.2759	0.0172	0.1466	0.1983	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3370
predicted_3B	0.0330
predicted_AB	3.5430
predicted_AVG	0.3023
predicted_BB	0.6440
predicted_H	1.0710
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.4081
predicted_R	0.4630
predicted_RBI	0.5830
predicted_SLG	0.4587
predicted_SO	0.6130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.3370	0.2547	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0330	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3140	3.5430	3.4054	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3023	0.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6570	0.6440	0.6518	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	1.0710	0.9742	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0440	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4080	0.4081	0.4080	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.4630	0.4077	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5830	0.5331	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4590	0.4587	0.4589	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5140	0.6130	0.5535	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	687462
playerID	687462
playerName	Spencer Horwitz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Paul Skenes (694973) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 9

All-history rows before 20260517: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.222	0.000	-1.222	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	2.778	2.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.478	8.000	0.522	-2.000
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	6.222	10.000	0.778	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	32.000	3.000	15.000	0.000	38.000	2.000	0.8438	0.4688	0.0938	0.4688	0.0000	1.1875	0.0625
last_10	0.35	9	50.000	11.000	25.000	7.000	56.000	4.000	1.9800	0.6400	0.2200	0.5000	0.1400	1.1200	0.0800
season	0.20	9	50.000	11.000	25.000	7.000	56.000	4.000	1.9800	0.6400	0.2200	0.5000	0.1400	1.1200	0.0800

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0270
predicted_ER	1.5600
predicted_ERA	2.3208
predicted_H	3.8960
predicted_HR	0.5500
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	6.5800
predicted_WHIP	0.8138

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.0270	1.0135	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.5600	0.7786	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3208	2.3208	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	3.8960	2.9463	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5500	0.2745	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	6.5800	5.7886	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8138	0.8138	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	7
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	90

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.98
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	8.0
Pitching_Pitches	98
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	10
Pitching_Strikes	68
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	694973
playerID	694973
playerName	Paul Skenes
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Dennis Santana (642701) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.450	2.000	0.550	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.900	4.000	1.100	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.870	0.000	0.130	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.8571	1.2857	0.4286	1.0714	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	6.000	12.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	5.7857	1.8214	0.6429	1.2857	0.5357	0.4286	0.2143
season	0.20	19	18.100	7.000	14.000	9.000	10.000	2.000	3.4364	1.2545	0.3818	0.7636	0.4909	0.5454	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3800
predicted_ER	0.4780
predicted_ERA	4.3018
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HR	0.1160
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6610
predicted_WHIP	1.3800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3800	0.1541	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4780	0.7884	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3018	4.3018	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0000	1.5945	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1160	0.0470	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6610	0.8626	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3800	1.3800	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	642701
playerID	642701
playerName	Dennis Santana
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Gregory Soto (642397) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	2.000	-0.409	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.273	2.000	-0.273	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.455	2.000	0.545	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.973	1.000	0.027	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.182	0.000	-1.182	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	5.0625	1.3125	0.5625	0.7500	0.5625	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	5.000	8.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	4.2188	1.0312	0.4688	0.7500	0.2812	0.9375	0.0000
season	0.20	22	22.100	6.000	10.000	9.000	26.000	1.000	2.4179	0.8507	0.2687	0.4478	0.4030	1.1642	0.0448

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4040
predicted_ER	0.4680
predicted_ERA	4.2155
predicted_H	0.8210
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8880
predicted_WHIP	1.2251

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4040	0.1721	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4680	0.1994	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2155	4.2155	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8210	0.9237	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8880	0.9523	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2251	1.2251	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	30
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	642397
playerID	642397
playerName	Gregory Soto
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mason Montgomery (682254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.778	1.000	1.222	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.844	1.100	0.156	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.444	0.000	-1.444	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.5882	0.8824	0.1765	0.5294	0.3529	0.7059	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	1.000	0.8438	0.7500	0.0938	0.4688	0.2812	0.9375	0.0938
season	0.20	18	18.000	6.000	14.000	8.000	26.000	2.000	3.0000	1.2222	0.3333	0.7778	0.4444	1.4444	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3650
predicted_ER	0.3460
predicted_ERA	3.1178
predicted_H	0.7800
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9460
predicted_WHIP	1.1447

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3650	0.1473	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3460	0.1396	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1178	3.1178	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7800	1.5076	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1320	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9460	0.3818	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1447	1.1447	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	682254
playerID	682254
playerName	Mason Montgomery
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

20260517_SD@SEA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 3 SEA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 3 SEA", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SD 4 - 3 SEA", "winner": "SD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SD 4 - 3 SEA", "winner": "SD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SD 4 - 3 SEA	SD	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SD 4 - 3 SEA	SD	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SD	6-4	0.600	3	3.10	-1	2W	cold	strong
Home SEA	5-5	0.500	4.50	3.60	9	2L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away SD	27-18	0.600	2	0.044	True
Home SEA	22-25	0.468	11	0.234	True
Signal	-	-	0.190	-0.008	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	SD @ SEA	7 - 4	SD	3	blowout
2026-05-16	SD @ SEA	2 - 0	SD	2	close
2026-04-17	SEA @ SD	2 - 5	SD	3	blowout
2026-04-16	SEA @ SD	6 - 7	SD	1	close
2026-04-15	SEA @ SD	1 - 4	SD	3	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SD	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target SEA	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SD	33	9	0	0	1	0	9
Player finalized SEA	33	9	4	0	4	3	9
Player model fractional SD	32.59	6.97	3.95	0.90	3.07	3.00	8.01
Player model fractional SEA	31.79	7.72	4.47	1.15	4.08	3.93	7.65
Simulation box SD	33	6	4	1	4	1	10
Simulation box SEA	36	9	3	0	3	4	10

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SD	Starter	Lucas Giolito	2	2	6	5	3	4.20	1.32	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Bradgley Rodriguez	1	0	0	0	1	3.19	1.00	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Jason Adam	1	0	2	1	0	2.86	1.18	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Mason Miller	1.10	0	0	0	0	2.63	1.22	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Jeremiah Estrada	1.20	0	0	0	0	3.30	1.18	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Adrian Morejon	0.10	1	1	3	0	3.73	1.10	True
Away SD	Reliever	Yuki Matsui	1.20	0	1	0	0	3.32	1.23	-
Home SEA	Starter	George Kirby	6	3	6	5	0	3.17	1.30	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Andrés Muñoz	1	1	2	1	0	3.97	1.29	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Cooper Criswell	1	0	1	0	0	3.37	1.12	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Eduard Bazardo	1	0	1	0	1	4.13	1.43	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SD

Freddy Fermin (666023) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 24

All-history rows before 20260517: 24

System season_avg: 0.1690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1688

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.208	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.208	3.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.169	0.000	0.165	0.333
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.542	0.000	0.458	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.000	0.075	0.333
predicted_R	0.458	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.260	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.221	0.000	0.113	0.333
predicted_SO	0.750	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	1.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.208	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.260	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.285	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.297	-0.036
predicted_H	0.580	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.000
predicted_R	0.427	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.143	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.260	0.000
predicted_SO	0.743	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.285	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.297	-0.000
predicted_H	0.577	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.047	0.000
predicted_HR	0.023	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.244	-0.010
predicted_R	0.423	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.142	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.244	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.744	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.0000	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1471	0.1714	0.1765	0.1471	0.0000	0.0294	0.1765
season	0.60	24	-	77.000	13.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	8.000	18.000	0.1688	0.2584	0.2208	0.1688	0.0390	0.1039	0.2338

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1360
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4140
predicted_AVG	0.1944
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_H	0.6640
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.2537
predicted_R	0.3760
predicted_RBI	0.1660
predicted_SLG	0.2602
predicted_SO	0.7320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1360	0.1553	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2080	3.4140	3.2855	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1944	0.1942	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2380	0.2973	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6640	0.5804	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0280	0.0230	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2537	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.3760	0.4271	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1660	0.1435	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2600	0.2602	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7320	0.7432	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.169

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	666023
playerID	666023
playerName	Freddy Fermin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SD
teamID	23

Xander Bogaerts (593428) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2579

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2520

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.698	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.698	4.000	0.302	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.250	-0.008	0.000
predicted_BB	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.953	1.000	0.047	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.250	-0.080	0.000
predicted_R	0.465	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.465	1.000	0.535	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	0.000	0.512	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.355	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.250	-0.140	0.000
predicted_SO	0.674	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.674	1.000	0.326	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.698	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.395	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.465	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.355	-
predicted_SO	0.674	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.697	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.361	-0.034
predicted_H	0.864	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.479	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.345	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.355	0.000
predicted_SO	0.688	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.697	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.361	-0.000
predicted_H	0.859	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.101	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.006
predicted_R	0.475	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.343	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.335	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.688	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.2432	0.2821	0.3514	0.2432	0.0270	0.0811	0.0541	0.2162
season	0.60	43	-	159.000	41.000	3.000	6.000	21.000	20.000	17.000	29.000	0.2579	0.3295	0.3899	0.2579	0.0377	0.1321	0.1069	0.1824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0780
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6960
predicted_AVG	0.2473
predicted_BB	0.3120
predicted_H	0.9140
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_OBP	0.3065
predicted_R	0.4990
predicted_RBI	0.3680
predicted_SLG	0.3554
predicted_SO	0.7080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0700	0.0780	0.0733	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6980	3.6960	3.6972	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2473	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3950	0.3120	0.3612	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9140	0.8642	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1060	0.1024	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3065	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4650	0.4990	0.4789	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3680	0.3455	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3550	0.3554	0.3552	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6740	0.7080	0.6879	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	593428
playerID	593428
playerName	Xander Bogaerts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Miguel Andujar (609280) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 32

All-history rows before 20260517: 32

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2100

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.250	-0.050	0.000
predicted_BB	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	1.000	-0.062	-1.000
predicted_H	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.250	-0.073	0.000
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.250	-0.242	0.000
predicted_SO	0.719	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.719	0.000	-0.719	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.312	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.293	-
predicted_BB	0.094	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	-
predicted_SO	0.719	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.325	0.013
predicted_3B	0.057	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.785	0.035
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.000
predicted_BB	0.097	0.003
predicted_H	1.080	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.113	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.492	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.500	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.739	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.325	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.785	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.097	0.000
predicted_H	1.073	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.112	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.015
predicted_R	0.396	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.488	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.488	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.740	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.283 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.6500	0.3500	0.0500	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	8.000	0.2750	0.2750	0.5000	0.2750	0.0250	0.1250	0.0000	0.2000
season	0.60	32	-	120.000	36.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	14.000	12.000	3.000	23.000	0.3000	0.3226	0.4917	0.3000	0.0250	0.1167	0.0250	0.1917

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3450
predicted_3B	0.0490
predicted_AB	3.8400
predicted_AVG	0.2931
predicted_BB	0.1020
predicted_H	1.1260
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_OBP	0.3159
predicted_R	0.4380
predicted_RBI	0.5100
predicted_SLG	0.4997
predicted_SO	0.7710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3120	0.3450	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0490	0.0569	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.8400	3.7854	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2930	0.2931	0.2930	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0940	0.1020	0.0971	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.1260	1.0799	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1170	0.1128	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3159	0.3160	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.4380	0.3998	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5100	0.4918	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5000	0.4997	0.4999	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7190	0.7710	0.7394	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	609280
playerID	609280
playerName	Miguel Andujar
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.093	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.581	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.581	3.000	-0.581	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.162	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_BB	0.512	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.512	1.000	0.488	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.651	0.000	-0.651	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.250	-0.029	0.000
predicted_R	0.535	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.535	1.000	-0.535	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.465	0.000	-0.465	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.000	-0.325	0.000
predicted_SO	0.907	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.907	0.000	0.093	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.581	-
predicted_AVG	0.162	-
predicted_BB	0.512	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.535	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.271	-
predicted_SO	0.907	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.085	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.596	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.162	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.462	-0.050
predicted_H	0.558	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.322	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.000
predicted_SO	0.882	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.085	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.596	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.154	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.462	-0.000
predicted_H	0.555	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.101	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.011
predicted_R	0.496	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.320	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.263	-0.008
predicted_SO	0.882	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.0833	0.1500	0.1667	0.0833	0.0278	0.0556	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.60	43	-	154.000	28.000	4.000	6.000	20.000	23.000	22.000	39.000	0.1818	0.2793	0.3247	0.1818	0.0390	0.1299	0.1429	0.2532

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6190
predicted_AVG	0.1617
predicted_BB	0.3900
predicted_H	0.5850
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_OBP	0.2401
predicted_R	0.4490
predicted_RBI	0.3400
predicted_SLG	0.2711
predicted_SO	0.8460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0930	0.0730	0.0848	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5810	3.6190	3.5965	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1620	0.1617	0.1619	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5120	0.3900	0.4622	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.5850	0.5584	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1060	0.1024	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2401	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5350	0.4490	0.4999	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3400	0.3222	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2710	0.2711	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9070	0.8460	0.8821	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2331

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2930

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.791	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.791	3.000	0.209	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.017	0.250
predicted_BB	0.442	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.442	1.000	-0.442	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.116	1.000	-0.116	-1.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.884	0.000	0.116	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.250	-0.062	0.000
predicted_R	0.349	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.349	0.000	0.651	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.276	0.000	-0.026	0.250
predicted_SO	1.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.070	1.000	-0.070	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.791	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.442	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.349	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.254	-
predicted_SO	1.070	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.771	-0.020
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	-0.007
predicted_H	0.784	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.000
predicted_R	0.336	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.263	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.000
predicted_SO	1.040	-0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.434	-0.000
predicted_H	0.779	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.003
predicted_R	0.333	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.261	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.259	0.005
predicted_SO	1.041	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	0.1714	0.2750	0.1714	0.1714	0.0571	0.1429	0.2571
season	0.60	43	-	163.000	38.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	15.000	19.000	46.000	0.2331	0.3118	0.2761	0.2331	0.0859	0.1166	0.2822

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7430
predicted_AVG	0.2110
predicted_BB	0.4240
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.2918
predicted_R	0.3170
predicted_RBI	0.2670
predicted_SLG	0.2542
predicted_SO	0.9980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1160	0.0840	0.1029	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7910	3.7430	3.7714	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2110	0.2110	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4420	0.4240	0.4346	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.7900	0.7841	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0188	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2918	0.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3490	0.3170	0.3359	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2670	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2540	0.2542	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0700	0.9980	1.0405	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-RF
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SD
teamID	23

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 34

All-history rows before 20260517: 34

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2348

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.382	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.382	2.000	-0.382	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.500	-0.235	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	2.000	-0.353	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.794	1.000	-0.794	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	1.000	-0.147	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.750	-0.062	-0.500
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.382	1.000	-0.382	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.551	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.435	2.000	-0.435	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.794	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.794	1.000	0.206	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.382	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.392	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.551	-
predicted_SO	0.794	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.339	-0.043
predicted_AVG	0.302	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.427	0.074
predicted_H	0.977	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.222	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.000
predicted_R	0.464	0.052
predicted_RBI	0.503	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.551	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	-0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.339	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.427	-0.000
predicted_H	0.971	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.219	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.371	-0.021
predicted_R	0.460	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.499	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.547	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.287 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	0.5385	0.6667	1.0000	0.5385	0.1538	0.3077	0.3846	0.1538
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	10.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	0.3333	0.4595	0.6333	0.3333	0.1000	0.1667	0.2333	0.1667
season	0.60	34	-	115.000	27.000	8.000	5.000	13.000	14.000	12.000	27.000	0.2348	0.3125	0.4348	0.2348	0.0435	0.1130	0.1043	0.2348

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1400
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2730
predicted_AVG	0.3017
predicted_BB	0.5400
predicted_H	0.9870
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.2240
predicted_OBP	0.3923
predicted_R	0.5440
predicted_RBI	0.5080
predicted_SLG	0.5510
predicted_SO	0.6830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.1400	0.1975	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3820	3.2730	3.3390	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3017	0.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.5400	0.4268	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.9870	0.9767	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2240	0.2216	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3920	0.3923	0.3921	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.5440	0.4641	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5080	0.5032	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5510	0.5510	0.5510	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7940	0.6830	0.7502	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Ty France (664034) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2615

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.421	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.421	3.000	0.579	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.333	-0.262	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.895	1.000	-0.895	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.333	-0.294	-0.333
predicted_R	0.474	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.474	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.508	0.333	-0.508	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.579	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.579	2.000	1.421	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.421	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.105	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.474	-
predicted_SO	0.579	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.002
predicted_3B	0.048	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.471	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.118	0.013
predicted_H	0.787	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.173	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.000
predicted_R	0.464	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.416	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.474	0.000
predicted_SO	0.657	0.078

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.118	0.000
predicted_H	0.782	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.032	0.000
predicted_HR	0.171	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.039
predicted_R	0.460	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.412	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.432	-0.042
predicted_SO	0.657	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.4118
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	0.2778	0.2973	0.6111	0.2778	0.0833	0.2222	0.0278	0.1944
season	0.60	19	-	65.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	9.000	2.000	11.000	0.2615	0.2941	0.5077	0.2615	0.0615	0.1385	0.0308	0.1692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.5590
predicted_AVG	0.2548
predicted_BB	0.1400
predicted_H	0.9070
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.1960
predicted_OBP	0.2898
predicted_R	0.4450
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.4742
predicted_SO	0.7950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1110	0.1072	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0400	0.0483	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4210	3.5590	3.4707	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2548	0.2549	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1050	0.1400	0.1176	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.9070	0.7874	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1960	0.1730	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2898	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.4450	0.4635	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4790	0.4157	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4740	0.4742	0.4741	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5790	0.7950	0.6569	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	664034
playerID	664034
playerName	Ty France
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Ramón Laureano (657656) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 38

All-history rows before 20260517: 38

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2292

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	1.000	-0.132	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.789	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.789	4.000	0.211	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.250	0.021	0.000
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.868	1.000	0.132	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	0.868	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.250	-0.057	0.000
predicted_R	0.474	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.474	1.000	0.526	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.500	0.604	0.500
predicted_SO	1.289	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.289	1.000	-0.289	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.789	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	1.289	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.006
predicted_3B	0.043	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.716	-0.073
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.427	0.006
predicted_H	0.752	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.451	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.312	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.283	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.716	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.426	-0.000
predicted_H	0.747	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.093	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.023
predicted_R	0.447	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.310	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.284	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.444)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.2941	0.2353	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.4118
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	14.000	0.1613	0.2973	0.2903	0.1613	0.0323	0.0323	0.1935	0.4516
season	0.60	38	-	144.000	33.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	19.000	18.000	16.000	49.000	0.2292	0.3067	0.3958	0.2292	0.0347	0.1319	0.1111	0.3403

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0270
predicted_AB	3.6090
predicted_AVG	0.2211
predicted_BB	0.4350
predicted_H	0.7980
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.3064
predicted_R	0.4160
predicted_RBI	0.3310
predicted_SLG	0.3607
predicted_SO	1.2750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.1460	0.1377	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0270	0.0425	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7890	3.6090	3.7162	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2211	0.2210	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.4350	0.4267	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7980	0.7516	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1010	0.0945	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3064	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.4160	0.4505	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3310	0.3125	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3607	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2890	1.2750	1.2833	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	657656
playerID	657656
playerName	Ramón Laureano
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Jackson Merrill (701538) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2048

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	0.810	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.952	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.952	4.000	0.048	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.000	0.045	0.250
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.810	0.000	0.190	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.000	-0.025	0.250
predicted_R	0.524	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.524	0.000	0.476	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	1.571	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.268	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.000	0.175	0.500
predicted_SO	1.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	2.000	-0.167	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.952	-
predicted_AVG	0.175	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.524	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.268	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.929	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.000
predicted_BB	0.380	0.023
predicted_H	0.634	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.000
predicted_R	0.462	-0.062
predicted_RBI	0.296	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.224	0.057

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.929	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.160	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.380	-0.000
predicted_H	0.630	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.234	-0.024
predicted_R	0.458	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.294	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.253	-0.015
predicted_SO	1.225	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.952

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	9.000	0.0526	0.1818	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.0000	0.1579	0.4737
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	16.000	0.1538	0.2500	0.2051	0.1538	0.0000	0.0513	0.1282	0.4103
season	0.60	42	-	166.000	34.000	8.000	4.000	18.000	22.000	15.000	49.000	0.2048	0.2747	0.3253	0.2048	0.0241	0.1084	0.0904	0.2952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8950
predicted_AVG	0.1755
predicted_BB	0.4140
predicted_H	0.6840
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.2588
predicted_R	0.3720
predicted_RBI	0.3200
predicted_SLG	0.2677
predicted_SO	1.3070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1570	0.1765	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9520	3.8950	3.9287	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1750	0.1755	0.1752	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.4140	0.3803	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6840	0.6343	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0660	0.0625	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2588	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5240	0.3720	0.4619	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3200	0.2963	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2680	0.2677	0.2679	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.3070	1.2242	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	701538
playerID	701538
playerName	Jackson Merrill
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Lucas Giolito (608337) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 0

All-history rows before 20260517: 0

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1260
predicted_ER	0.1550
predicted_ERA	4.1954
predicted_H	0.3130
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3180
predicted_WHIP	1.3167

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.1260	2.3462	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.1550	1.5803	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1954	4.1954	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	0.3130	3.9337	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0430	0.0098	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	0.3180	4.7073	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3167	1.3167	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	6
HR	0
BF	14
Pitches	52

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Bradgley Rodriguez (699134) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.967	1.000	0.033	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.6875	0.3750	0.1875	0.3750	0.0000	0.5625
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	2.4545	0.7273	0.2727	0.4546	0.2727	0.4546
season	0.20	18	20.200	4.000	15.000	5.000	15.000	1.7419	0.9677	0.1935	0.7258	0.2419	0.7258

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2730
predicted_ER	0.3550
predicted_ERA	3.1910
predicted_H	0.7280
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7750
predicted_WHIP	1.0013

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2730	0.6962	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3550	0.1484	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1910	3.1910	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7280	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7750	0.3239	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0013	1.0013	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.74
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	699134
playerID	699134
playerName	Bradgley Rodriguez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 16

All-history rows before 20260517: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.844	1.000	0.156	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.438	1.000	1.562	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0714	0.0000	0.6429	0.4286	0.4286	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	0.9000	0.8000	0.1000	0.5000	0.3000	0.5000	0.1000
season	0.20	16	14.200	2.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	1.2273	0.8864	0.1364	0.6136	0.2727	0.4773	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3690
predicted_ER	0.3180
predicted_ERA	2.8577
predicted_H	0.8090
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7740
predicted_WHIP	1.1779

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3690	0.1413	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3180	0.1218	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8577	2.8577	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8090	0.9269	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0383	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7740	1.5305	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1779	1.1779	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.23
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.015	1.100	0.085	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	2.200	4.000	-2.200	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	4.000	3.000	15.000	0.0000	1.2353	0.0000	0.7059	0.5294	2.6471
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	4.000	19.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	1.7812
season	0.20	20	21.000	2.000	10.000	6.000	44.000	0.8571	0.7619	0.0952	0.4762	0.2857	2.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4010
predicted_ER	0.2930
predicted_ERA	2.6342
predicted_H	0.8190
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.5360
predicted_WHIP	1.2191

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4010	0.1683	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2930	0.1229	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6342	2.6342	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8190	0.3437	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0298	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5360	0.6445	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2191	1.2191	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	34
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jeremiah Estrada (669093) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 13

All-history rows before 20260517: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.615	1.000	-0.615	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.908	1.000	0.292	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.231	0.000	-1.231	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.5882	0.8824	0.1765	0.5294	0.3529	0.8823	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	1.000	0.8182	0.9091	0.0909	0.5454	0.3636	0.9091	0.0909
season	0.20	13	13.200	5.000	8.000	7.000	16.000	1.000	3.2927	1.0976	0.3659	0.5854	0.5122	1.1707	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2170
predicted_ER	0.2080
predicted_ERA	3.3035
predicted_H	0.4540
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5410
predicted_WHIP	1.1824

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2170	0.0816	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2080	0.0782	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3035	3.3035	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4540	0.1707	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0275	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5410	0.2035	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1824	1.1824	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	669093
playerID	669093
playerName	Jeremiah Estrada
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.650	0.000	0.350	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.100	0.000	1.900	3.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.975	1.000	-0.875	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.400	1.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	1.8000	0.6000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	5.000	7.000	4.000	16.000	2.000	3.9706	0.9706	0.4412	0.6177	0.3529	1.4118	0.1765
season	0.20	20	23.000	13.000	22.000	6.000	28.000	2.000	5.0870	1.2174	0.5652	0.9565	0.2609	1.2174	0.0870

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_ER	0.2700
predicted_ERA	3.7285
predicted_H	0.5020
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7500
predicted_WHIP	1.0955

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2120	0.0910	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2700	0.6867	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7285	3.7285	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.5020	1.9280	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0690	0.0296	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7500	0.8927	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0955	1.0955	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.09
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Yuki Matsui (673513) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 3

All-history rows before 20260517: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.333	0.000	-1.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.067	2.000	-0.867	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.667	3.000	-1.667	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	6.200	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.9000	0.6000	0.3000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	3	6.200	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.9000	0.6000	0.3000	1.2000
season	0.20	3	6.200	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.9000	0.6000	0.3000	1.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2720
predicted_ER	0.2770
predicted_ERA	3.3173
predicted_H	0.6520
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7560
predicted_WHIP	1.2295

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2720	0.0859	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2770	0.0875	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3173	3.3173	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6520	0.2060	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0770	0.0243	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7560	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2295	1.2295	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	673513
playerID	673513
playerName	Yuki Matsui
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Home Team: SEA

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 47

All-history rows before 20260517: 47

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3059

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.234	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.234	0.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.617	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.617	3.000	1.383	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.351	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.333	-0.106	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.426	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.426	1.000	-0.426	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	1.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.106	1.000	-0.106	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.085	0.000	-0.085	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.434	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.394	0.500	-0.194	-0.300
predicted_R	0.681	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.681	0.000	-0.681	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.362	1.000	-0.362	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.516	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.453	0.333	-0.253	-0.133
predicted_SO	0.979	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.979	1.000	2.021	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.617	-
predicted_AVG	0.351	-
predicted_BB	0.426	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.434	-
predicted_R	0.681	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.516	-
predicted_SO	0.979	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.007
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.653	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.351	0.000
predicted_BB	0.422	-0.004
predicted_H	1.230	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.157	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.434	0.000
predicted_R	0.702	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.448	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.516	0.000
predicted_SO	0.962	-0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.653	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.335	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.421	-0.001
predicted_H	1.222	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.157	0.000
predicted_HR	0.104	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.403	-0.031
predicted_R	0.694	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.443	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.496	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.963	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.335 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.364)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.4737	0.5652	0.7368	0.4737	0.0526	0.2105	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	10.000	0.4474	0.5227	0.5789	0.4474	0.0263	0.1316	0.0790	0.2632
season	0.60	47	-	170.000	52.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	17.000	32.000	20.000	46.000	0.3059	0.3939	0.4529	0.3059	0.0235	0.1000	0.1177	0.2706

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2500
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.7040
predicted_AVG	0.3515
predicted_BB	0.4160
predicted_H	1.3020
predicted_HBP	0.1570
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_OBP	0.4343
predicted_R	0.7320
predicted_RBI	0.4740
predicted_SLG	0.5165
predicted_SO	0.9370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2340	0.2500	0.2406	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6170	3.7040	3.6528	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3510	0.3515	0.3512	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4260	0.4160	0.4219	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.3020	1.2302	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1570	0.1570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1120	0.1049	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4340	0.4343	0.4341	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6810	0.7320	0.7020	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4740	0.4481	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5160	0.5165	0.5162	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9790	0.9370	0.9617	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Dominic Canzone (686527) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 31

All-history rows before 20260517: 31

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2674

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.226	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.226	0.000	0.774	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.774	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.774	2.000	0.226	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.000	0.066	0.333
predicted_BB	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.290	1.000	0.710	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.742	0.000	0.258	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.333	0.163	0.167
predicted_R	0.419	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	0.000	0.581	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.548	0.000	0.452	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.488	0.000	0.178	0.667
predicted_SO	0.677	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.677	0.000	0.323	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.774	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.290	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.439	-
predicted_SO	0.677	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.833	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.307	0.018
predicted_H	0.641	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.121	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.322	-0.000
predicted_R	0.419	-0.000
predicted_RBI	0.564	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.439	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.652	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.833	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.307	-0.000
predicted_H	0.637	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.021
predicted_R	0.414	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.558	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.421	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.653	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.2308	0.3125	0.4615	0.2308	0.0769	0.3846	0.1538	0.0769
last_10	0.20	10	-	24.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.2083	0.3103	0.3333	0.2083	0.0417	0.2500	0.1667	0.2083
season	0.60	31	-	86.000	23.000	7.000	4.000	17.000	13.000	9.000	21.000	0.2674	0.3367	0.4884	0.2674	0.0465	0.1977	0.1047	0.2442

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	2.9300
predicted_AVG	0.2472
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_H	0.7250
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.3215
predicted_R	0.4180
predicted_RBI	0.6360
predicted_SLG	0.4386
predicted_SO	0.6110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2260	0.1420	0.1940	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7740	2.9300	2.8335	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2472	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2900	0.3360	0.3075	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7250	0.6415	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1380	0.1207	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3215	0.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.4180	0.4186	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6360	0.5642	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4390	0.4386	0.4388	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6770	0.6110	0.6518	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	686527
playerID	686527
playerName	Dominic Canzone
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 47

All-history rows before 20260517: 47

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2553

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.191	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.191	0.000	-0.191	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	5.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.200	-0.055	0.000
predicted_BB	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.340	0.000	-0.340	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.021	1.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.149	0.000	-0.149	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.200	-0.120	0.000
predicted_R	0.489	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.489	1.000	-0.489	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.426	0.000	-0.426	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.200	-0.215	0.000
predicted_SO	1.043	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.043	1.000	0.957	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.340	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.489	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.379	-
predicted_SO	1.043	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.033	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.338	-0.002
predicted_H	0.873	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.478	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.379	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.379	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.075	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.033	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.338	-0.001
predicted_H	0.868	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.142	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.010
predicted_R	0.473	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.375	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.010
predicted_SO	1.076	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.0909	0.1667	0.1364	0.0909	0.0000	0.0454	0.0909	0.3182
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	13.000	0.2381	0.2889	0.5000	0.2381	0.0714	0.0952	0.0714	0.3095
season	0.60	47	-	188.000	48.000	9.000	7.000	20.000	23.000	16.000	49.000	0.2553	0.3204	0.4149	0.2553	0.0372	0.1064	0.0851	0.2606

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1930
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0790
predicted_AVG	0.2222
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_H	0.9060
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.2861
predicted_R	0.4630
predicted_RBI	0.3920
predicted_SLG	0.3786
predicted_SO	1.1200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1910	0.1930	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0790	4.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3400	0.3360	0.3383	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9060	0.8731	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1470	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2861	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4890	0.4630	0.4783	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3920	0.3791	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3790	0.3786	0.3788	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0430	1.1200	1.0748	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

J.P. Crawford (641487) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 38

All-history rows before 20260517: 38

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2190

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.605	5.000	1.395	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.400	-0.019	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.763	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.763	0.000	-0.763	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.789	2.000	0.211	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	1.000	-0.158	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.400	-0.163	-0.200
predicted_R	0.605	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.605	1.000	-0.605	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	1.000	-0.421	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.438	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	1.000	-0.180	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	2.000	0.316	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.605	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.763	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.605	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.438	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.671	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.720	-0.043
predicted_H	0.892	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.033	-
predicted_HR	0.187	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000
predicted_R	0.611	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.513	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.438	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.684	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.671	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.719	-0.001
predicted_H	0.886	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.033	0.000
predicted_HR	0.186	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.004
predicted_R	0.604	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.507	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.425	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.685	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.3333	0.4167	0.6667	0.3333	0.0952	0.2381	0.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	6.000	0.2368	0.3556	0.4211	0.2368	0.0526	0.1316	0.1842	0.1579
season	0.60	38	-	137.000	30.000	4.000	6.000	16.000	23.000	29.000	26.000	0.2190	0.3631	0.3796	0.2190	0.0438	0.1168	0.2117	0.1898

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1300
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7690
predicted_AVG	0.2452
predicted_BB	0.6580
predicted_H	0.9240
predicted_HBP	0.0330
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_OBP	0.3621
predicted_R	0.6190
predicted_RBI	0.5310
predicted_SLG	0.4377
predicted_SO	0.6850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1300	0.1151	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6050	3.7690	3.6715	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2452	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7630	0.6580	0.7204	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9240	0.8919	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0330	0.0330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1970	0.1869	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3621	0.3620	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6050	0.6190	0.6107	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5310	0.5126	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4380	0.4377	0.4379	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.6850	0.6844	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	641487
playerID	641487
playerName	J.P. Crawford
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SEA
teamID	25

Luke Raley (670042) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 34

All-history rows before 20260517: 34

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.235	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.235	4.000	0.765	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.750	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.250	0.477	0.500
predicted_BB	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.882	1.000	2.118	2.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.250	0.411	0.500
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.735	0.000	-0.735	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.611	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.573	0.250	0.177	0.500
predicted_SO	1.176	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.176	1.000	-1.176	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.235	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.206	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.367	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.611	-
predicted_SO	1.176	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.249	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.218	0.012
predicted_H	0.890	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.166	-
predicted_HR	0.291	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.000
predicted_R	0.543	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.776	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.611	0.000
predicted_SO	1.081	-0.095

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.249	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.218	-0.000
predicted_H	0.885	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.166	0.000
predicted_HR	0.290	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.049
predicted_R	0.537	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.767	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.588	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.082	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.089

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.3750	0.4737	0.7500	0.3750	0.1250	0.2500	0.0625	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	14.000	8.000	3.000	8.000	0.3214	0.4242	0.8571	0.3214	0.1786	0.5000	0.1071	0.2857
season	0.60	34	-	110.000	30.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	25.000	17.000	7.000	40.000	0.2727	0.3388	0.5727	0.2727	0.0818	0.2273	0.0636	0.3636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.2720
predicted_AVG	0.2912
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	0.9530
predicted_HBP	0.1660
predicted_HR	0.3090
predicted_OBP	0.3674
predicted_R	0.6090
predicted_RBI	0.8310
predicted_SLG	0.6114
predicted_SO	0.9330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0880	0.1062	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0170	0.0243	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2350	3.2720	3.2495	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2912	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2060	0.2370	0.2181	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9530	0.8904	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1660	0.1660	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3090	0.2914	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3670	0.3674	0.3672	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6090	0.5427	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.8310	0.7757	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6110	0.6114	0.6112	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1760	0.9330	1.0808	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	670042
playerID	670042
playerName	Luke Raley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 47

All-history rows before 20260517: 47

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2545

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.170	0.000	-0.170	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.511	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.511	4.000	-0.511	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.250	0.079	0.083
predicted_BB	0.319	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.319	0.000	0.681	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.894	1.000	0.106	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.064	0.000	-0.064	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.250	0.170	0.250
predicted_R	0.426	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.426	0.000	0.574	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.553	2.000	0.447	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.250	-0.036	0.083
predicted_SO	0.894	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.894	1.000	0.106	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.511	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.319	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.426	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	0.894	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.033
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.547	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.322	0.003
predicted_H	0.792	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.085	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.371	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.556	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.000
predicted_SO	0.858	-0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.547	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.321	-0.001
predicted_H	0.787	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.085	0.000
predicted_HR	0.044	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.032
predicted_R	0.367	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.550	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.860	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.2105	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	0.2286	0.3250	0.3429	0.2286	0.0000	0.2000	0.0857	0.2000
season	0.60	47	-	165.000	42.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	26.000	20.000	15.000	42.000	0.2545	0.3297	0.3697	0.2545	0.0182	0.1576	0.0909	0.2545

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2500
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5990
predicted_AVG	0.2410
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_H	0.8670
predicted_HBP	0.0850
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.3179
predicted_R	0.2910
predicted_RBI	0.6090
predicted_SLG	0.3593
predicted_SO	0.8070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1700	0.2500	0.2027	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5110	3.5990	3.5470	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2410	0.2410	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3190	0.3250	0.3215	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8670	0.7920	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0850	0.0850	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0441	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3179	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4260	0.2910	0.3708	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6090	0.5564	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3593	0.3591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8940	0.8070	0.8584	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2529

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.955	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.955	4.000	1.045	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.500	-0.253	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.600	-0.318	-0.600
predicted_R	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.318	2.000	-0.318	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.500	-0.368	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.682	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.682	0.000	1.318	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.955	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.318	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	0.682	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.974	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.269	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	0.014
predicted_H	1.036	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.092	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.000
predicted_R	0.354	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.341	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.674	-0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.974	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.377	-0.001
predicted_H	1.030	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.091	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.013
predicted_R	0.350	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.337	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.675	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.955

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.3333	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	0.3171	0.3778	0.4390	0.3171	0.0244	0.0732	0.0976	0.1220
season	0.60	44	-	174.000	44.000	5.000	5.000	20.000	14.000	16.000	30.000	0.2529	0.3177	0.3678	0.2529	0.0287	0.1149	0.0920	0.1724

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0010
predicted_AVG	0.2685
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_H	1.0740
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_OBP	0.3363
predicted_R	0.4050
predicted_RBI	0.3560
predicted_SLG	0.3778
predicted_SO	0.6630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1520	0.1296	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9550	4.0010	3.9739	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2685	0.2688	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.3970	0.3775	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0740	1.0363	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0940	0.0916	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3363	0.3361	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3180	0.4050	0.3537	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3560	0.3407	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3778	0.3779	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6820	0.6630	0.6742	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Mitch Garver (641598) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 14

All-history rows before 20260517: 14

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1905

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.333	0.310	0.167
predicted_BB	0.929	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.929	1.000	1.071	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	1.000	-0.071	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.750	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.500	0.368	0.250
predicted_R	0.643	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.643	2.000	0.357	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.214	2.000	0.786	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.262	1.333	0.238	-0.833
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.929	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.323	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.019	0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.098	0.098
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.862	-0.067
predicted_H	0.558	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.000
predicted_R	0.660	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.279	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000
predicted_SO	0.994	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.019	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.098	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.861	-0.001
predicted_H	0.554	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.009
predicted_R	0.653	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.276	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.273	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.995	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=20.0, weight=0.160, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	0.1333	0.3158	0.3333	0.1333	0.0667	0.1333	0.2667	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	10.000	9.000	0.2000	0.4000	0.3000	0.2000	0.0333	0.1000	0.3333	0.3000
season	0.60	14	-	42.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	13.000	14.000	0.1905	0.3818	0.2619	0.1905	0.0238	0.0714	0.3095	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0550
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2820
predicted_AVG	0.2032
predicted_BB	0.7350
predicted_H	0.6670
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.3485
predicted_R	0.6930
predicted_RBI	0.3340
predicted_SLG	0.3230
predicted_SO	0.9820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0550	0.0191	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2820	3.0978	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2032	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9290	0.7350	0.8617	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6670	0.5579	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1100	0.0904	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3485	0.3482	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.6930	0.6603	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3340	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3230	0.3230	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9820	0.9938	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	641598
playerID	641598
playerName	Mitch Garver
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

Brendan Donovan (680977) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 23

All-history rows before 20260517: 23

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2738

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.652	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.652	5.000	0.348	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.200	-0.274	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.391	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.200	-0.374	-0.200
predicted_R	0.391	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.452	0.200	-0.452	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.652	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.652	2.000	-0.652	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.652	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.391	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.391	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	0.652	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.052	0.009
predicted_AB	3.735	0.083
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.367	-0.024
predicted_H	0.860	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.144	-
predicted_HR	0.078	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000
predicted_R	0.387	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.274	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.660	0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.052	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.367	-0.001
predicted_H	0.855	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.144	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.032
predicted_R	0.383	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.271	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.035
predicted_SO	0.661	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2174	0.2500	0.3478	0.2174	0.0000	0.0000	0.0435	0.1304
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2308	0.3182	0.3077	0.2308	0.0000	0.0513	0.0769	0.1282
season	0.60	23	-	84.000	23.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	9.000	9.000	15.000	0.2738	0.3737	0.4524	0.2738	0.0357	0.0952	0.1071	0.1786

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0660
predicted_AB	3.8700
predicted_AVG	0.2516
predicted_BB	0.3290
predicted_H	0.9740
predicted_HBP	0.1440
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_OBP	0.3302
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.3120
predicted_SLG	0.4008
predicted_SO	0.6740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1690	0.1721	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0660	0.0518	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6520	3.8700	3.7353	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2516	0.2518	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3910	0.3290	0.3673	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9740	0.8603	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1440	0.1440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0920	0.0784	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3302	0.3301	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3910	0.3800	0.3868	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3120	0.2737	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4008	0.4009	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6520	0.6740	0.6604	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	680977
playerID	680977
playerName	Brendan Donovan
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

George Kirby (669923) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 9

All-history rows before 20260517: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.556	2.000	-1.556	-2.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.778	7.000	-0.778	-2.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.178	5.000	-0.178	1.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.111	7.000	0.889	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.100	8.000	32.000	8.000	24.000	1.000	2.4545	1.3636	0.2727	1.0909	0.2727	0.8182	0.0341
last_10	0.35	9	57.000	18.000	52.000	14.000	46.000	4.000	2.8421	1.1579	0.3158	0.9123	0.2456	0.8070	0.0702
season	0.20	9	57.000	18.000	52.000	14.000	46.000	4.000	2.8421	1.1579	0.3158	0.9123	0.2456	0.8070	0.0702

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8480
predicted_ER	2.1430
predicted_ERA	3.1717
predicted_H	6.0350
predicted_HR	0.4700
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	5.2550
predicted_WHIP	1.2961

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.8480	0.9224	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.1430	2.5722	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1717	3.1717	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	6.0350	5.5166	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4700	0.2346	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	5.2550	5.6282	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2961	1.2961	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	6
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.84
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	99
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	64
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669923
playerID	669923
playerName	George Kirby
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	0.094	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.611	3.000	0.389	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	1.2000	0.2000	1.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	18.000	2.000	2.7000	1.0000	0.3000	0.8000	0.2000	1.8000	0.2000
season	0.20	18	17.000	10.000	16.000	7.000	29.000	3.000	5.2941	1.3529	0.5882	0.9412	0.4118	1.7059	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3240
predicted_ER	0.4410
predicted_ERA	3.9651
predicted_H	0.9660
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2870
predicted_WHIP	1.2901

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3240	0.1289	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4410	0.7777	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9651	3.9651	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9660	0.9865	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1560	0.6643	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2870	1.7164	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2901	1.2901	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cooper Criswell (681867) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 16

All-history rows before 20260517: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.875	2.000	-0.875	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.144	1.000	-0.144	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	1.9286	0.8571	0.2143	0.6429	0.2143	0.6429	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	2.7000	0.8000	0.3000	0.7000	0.1000	0.8000	0.1000
season	0.20	16	19.000	5.000	14.000	4.000	16.000	3.000	2.3684	0.9474	0.2632	0.7368	0.2105	0.8421	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2990
predicted_ER	0.3860
predicted_ERA	3.3746
predicted_H	0.8510
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8860
predicted_WHIP	1.1183

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2990	0.1223	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3860	0.1579	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3746	3.3746	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8510	0.3482	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1060	0.0434	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8860	0.9534	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1183	1.1183	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.37
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	681867
playerID	681867
playerName	Cooper Criswell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.318	0.000	0.682	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.755	0.200	0.245	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.773	0.000	0.227	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.5000	0.4286	1.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	10.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	2.8929	1.2857	0.3214	1.0714	0.2143	0.8571	0.1071
season	0.20	22	20.100	5.000	18.000	7.000	17.000	1.000	2.2131	1.2295	0.2459	0.8852	0.3443	0.8361	0.0492

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_ER	0.4590
predicted_ERA	4.1343
predicted_H	1.0670
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9520
predicted_WHIP	1.4271

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3600	0.7336	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4590	0.1910	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1343	4.1343	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0670	0.4441	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1360	0.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9520	0.9800	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4271	1.4271	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.21
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

20260517_SF@OAK

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.546651, "home_win_probability": 0.546651, "away_win_probability": 0.453349, "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 4 OAK", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 4 OAK", "confidence": 0.546651, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SF 3 - 4 OAK", "winner": "OAK"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 OAK", "winner": "OAK"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SF 3 - 4 OAK	OAK	0.547	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SF 4 - 5 OAK	OAK	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SF	4-6	0.400	4	5.50	-15	3L	average	weak
Home OAK	5-5	0.500	4.60	3.80	8	1W	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away SF	18-27	0.400	-48	-1.067	True
Home OAK	23-21	0.523	-2	-0.045	True
Signal	-	-	1.021	1.205	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	SF @ OAK	2 - 5	OAK	3	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SF	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target OAK	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SF	34	9	2	0	2	0	9
Player finalized OAK	33	9	4	0	3	3	7
Player model fractional SF	33.74	8.20	3.64	1.02	3.52	2.06	8.17
Player model fractional OAK	31.82	7.27	4.15	1.12	4.34	3.87	7.47
Simulation box SF	35	8	4	0	4	3	11
Simulation box OAK	32	8	5	1	5	5	11

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SF	Starter	Adrian Houser	5	4	8	6	5	5.36	1.39	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Caleb Kilian	2	1	1	1	0	3.92	1.30	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Keaton Winn	1	0	2	1	0	3.27	1.09	True
Home OAK	Starter	Jeffrey Springs	5	3	6	6	1	5.32	1.44	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Joel Kuhnel	1	0	2	0	0	4.07	1.26	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Mark Leiter Jr.	1	1	1	2	0	5.80	1.38	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Scott Barlow	1.10	0	2	0	1	3.24	1.10	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Hogan Harris	0.20	0	0	0	1	2.87	1.53	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SF

Matt Chapman (656305) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2176

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	1.000	-0.205	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.864	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.864	5.000	-0.864	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.200	0.116	0.133
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.841	1.000	0.159	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.200	0.207	0.300
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.341	1.000	-0.341	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.269	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.400	0.033	-0.067
predicted_SO	1.091	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.091	2.000	0.909	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.864	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.249	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.269	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.005
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.893	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.337	-0.027
predicted_H	0.657	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.000
predicted_R	0.322	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.325	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.269	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.159	0.068

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.893	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.334	-0.003
predicted_H	0.647	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.023	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.232	-0.017
predicted_R	0.314	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.317	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.248	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.170	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, weight=0.145, BvP AVG=0.118)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.864

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	10.000	0.0952	0.1364	0.1429	0.0952	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.4762
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	14.000	0.1250	0.1860	0.2000	0.1250	0.0000	0.0750	0.0500	0.3500
season	0.60	44	-	170.000	37.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	15.000	16.000	16.000	48.000	0.2176	0.2926	0.3000	0.2177	0.0059	0.0882	0.0941	0.2823

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.9360
predicted_AVG	0.1841
predicted_BB	0.2980
predicted_H	0.7250
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2490
predicted_R	0.2620
predicted_RBI	0.3620
predicted_SLG	0.2687
predicted_SO	1.2580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.2170	0.2099	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8640	3.9360	3.8935	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1841	0.1840	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.2980	0.3370	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7250	0.6571	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0237	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2490	0.2490	0.2490	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.2620	0.3222	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3620	0.3254	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2690	0.2687	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	1.2580	1.1594	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	656305
playerID	656305
playerName	Matt Chapman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 46

All-history rows before 20260517: 46

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2471

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.217	1.000	-0.217	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.783	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.783	5.000	0.217	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.400	0.003	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.283	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.283	0.000	-0.283	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.935	2.000	0.065	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.109	0.000	-0.109	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.400	-0.046	-0.150
predicted_R	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	1.000	-0.370	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.600	-0.141	-0.350
predicted_SO	1.283	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.283	3.000	-0.283	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.783	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.283	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.447	-
predicted_SO	1.283	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.793	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	0.003
predicted_H	0.994	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000
predicted_R	0.397	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.322	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.447	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.323	0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.793	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.283	-0.003
predicted_H	0.979	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.121	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.015
predicted_R	0.386	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.314	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.417	-0.030
predicted_SO	1.335	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	13.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	4.000	15.000	0.3514	0.4146	0.7027	0.3513	0.0811	0.1081	0.1081	0.4054
season	0.60	46	-	174.000	43.000	10.000	5.000	18.000	17.000	13.000	59.000	0.2471	0.2963	0.3908	0.2471	0.0287	0.1035	0.0747	0.3391

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2750
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8080
predicted_AVG	0.2738
predicted_BB	0.2900
predicted_H	1.0430
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1270
predicted_OBP	0.3243
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.3400
predicted_SLG	0.4468
predicted_SO	1.3810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2170	0.2750	0.2408	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7830	3.8080	3.7932	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2738	0.2739	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2830	0.2900	0.2859	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0430	0.9940	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1270	0.1229	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3243	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.4350	0.3966	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3400	0.3223	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4470	0.4468	0.4469	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2830	1.3810	1.3232	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Harrison Bader (664056) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

System season_avg: 0.1520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1515

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	5.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.152	0.000	0.098	0.250
predicted_BB	0.111	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.174	0.000	0.226	0.400
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.318	0.000	0.182	0.500
predicted_SO	1.278	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.278	3.000	-0.278	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.222	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	1.278	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.705	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.119	0.008
predicted_H	0.705	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.183	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.000
predicted_R	0.352	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.328	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000
predicted_SO	1.254	-0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.705	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.118	-0.001
predicted_H	0.694	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.212	-0.010
predicted_R	0.342	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.319	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.367	-0.017
predicted_SO	1.265	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.6000	0.2500	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	14.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.3421	0.1579	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.3684
season	0.60	18	-	66.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	23.000	0.1515	0.1739	0.3182	0.1515	0.0454	0.0758	0.0303	0.3485

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7720
predicted_AVG	0.1941
predicted_BB	0.1330
predicted_H	0.7320
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1890
predicted_OBP	0.2220
predicted_R	0.3850
predicted_RBI	0.3420
predicted_SLG	0.3841
predicted_SO	1.2110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1420	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.7720	3.7049	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1941	0.1940	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.1330	0.1190	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7320	0.7052	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1890	0.1833	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2220	0.2220	0.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3850	0.3518	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3420	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3841	0.3840	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2780	1.2110	1.2538	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.152

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	664056
playerID	664056
playerName	Harrison Bader
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Drew Gilbert (687551) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2394

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	1.000	-0.091	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.045	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	1.000	0.955	0.000
predicted_AB	3.227	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.227	5.000	0.773	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.400	0.011	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.773	2.000	0.227	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.400	-0.058	-0.150
predicted_R	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.380	1.000	0.370	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.727	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	2.000	-0.727	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.227	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.318	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.020
predicted_3B	0.053	0.009
predicted_AB	3.304	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.299	0.026
predicted_H	0.660	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.073	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.317	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.000
predicted_SO	0.753	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.304	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.296	-0.003
predicted_H	0.650	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.073	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.044
predicted_R	0.308	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.270	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.047
predicted_SO	0.760	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	0.1176	0.2857	0.2941	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.2353	0.3333	0.3529	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.2059
season	0.60	22	-	71.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	16.000	0.2394	0.3077	0.3803	0.2394	0.0282	0.0986	0.0845	0.2253

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0680
predicted_AB	3.4360
predicted_AVG	0.2225
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	0.7640
predicted_HBP	0.0730
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.3075
predicted_R	0.3140
predicted_RBI	0.3240
predicted_SLG	0.3679
predicted_SO	0.7980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1460	0.1113	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0680	0.0535	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2270	3.4360	3.3041	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2225	0.2228	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.3430	0.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7640	0.6605	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0730	0.0730	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0730	0.0648	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3075	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3180	0.3140	0.3165	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3240	0.2773	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3680	0.3679	0.3680	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.7980	0.7532	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	687551
playerID	687551
playerName	Drew Gilbert
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SF
teamID	24

Daniel Susac (691740) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 6

All-history rows before 20260517: 6

System season_avg: 0.4780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4783

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	4.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.478	0.000	-0.478	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.833	0.000	-1.833	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.000	-0.250	0.250
predicted_R	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.652	0.000	-0.652	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.167	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.319	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.490	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.315	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.145	-0.022
predicted_AB	3.845	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.000
predicted_BB	0.169	0.002
predicted_H	1.118	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.355	-0.000
predicted_R	0.223	0.056
predicted_RBI	0.625	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.000
predicted_SO	0.568	0.068

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.315	0.000
predicted_3B	0.145	0.000
predicted_AB	3.845	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.167	-0.002
predicted_H	1.101	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.061	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.039
predicted_R	0.217	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.609	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.002
predicted_SO	0.573	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.286 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.6000	0.4000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	6	-	23.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.4783	0.5000	0.6522	0.4783	0.2174	0.0435	0.1304
season	0.60	6	-	23.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.4783	0.5000	0.6522	0.4783	0.2174	0.0435	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2710
predicted_3B	0.0920
predicted_AB	3.8760
predicted_AVG	0.3191
predicted_BB	0.1730
predicted_H	1.2370
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.3547
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.6880
predicted_SLG	0.4899
predicted_SO	0.7370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2710	0.3152	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1670	0.0920	0.1454	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.8760	3.8454	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3190	0.3191	0.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1730	0.1687	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.2370	1.1180	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0690	0.0626	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3547	0.3549	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.3630	0.2233	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6880	0.6253	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4900	0.4899	0.4900	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7370	0.5681	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.478

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	691740
playerID	691740
playerName	Daniel Susac
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Luis Arraez (650333) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.3180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3176

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2590

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.209	1.000	-0.209	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.047	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.047	0.000	0.953	1.000
predicted_AB	3.953	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.953	3.000	1.047	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.322	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.318	0.333	-0.118	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.279	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.279	2.000	-0.279	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.256	1.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.600	-0.159	-0.400
predicted_R	0.442	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.442	2.000	0.558	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.349	0.000	1.651	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.667	0.188	-0.067
predicted_SO	0.163	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.163	0.000	1.837	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-
predicted_3B	0.047	-
predicted_AB	3.953	-
predicted_AVG	0.322	-
predicted_BB	0.279	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.385	-
predicted_R	0.442	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.467	-
predicted_SO	0.163	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	0.025
predicted_3B	0.038	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.937	-0.016
predicted_AVG	0.322	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.339	0.060
predicted_H	1.236	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.385	-0.000
predicted_R	0.474	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.344	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.467	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.188	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.937	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.336	-0.003
predicted_H	1.217	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.079	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.363	-0.021
predicted_R	0.462	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.335	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.449	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.189	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.308 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.953

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	0.3684	0.4783	0.6316	0.3684	0.0526	0.0526	0.2105	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	14.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	1.000	0.3500	0.4348	0.5250	0.3500	0.0250	0.1000	0.1500	0.0250
season	0.60	43	-	170.000	54.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	15.000	19.000	12.000	7.000	0.3176	0.3587	0.4118	0.3176	0.0059	0.0882	0.0706	0.0412

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2710
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.9130
predicted_AVG	0.3216
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_H	1.2590
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.3848
predicted_R	0.5210
predicted_RBI	0.3490
predicted_SLG	0.4667
predicted_SO	0.2230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2090	0.2710	0.2344	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0470	0.0260	0.0384	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9530	3.9130	3.9366	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3220	0.3216	0.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2790	0.4260	0.3391	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.2590	1.2360	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0820	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3850	0.3848	0.3849	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4420	0.5210	0.4743	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3490	0.3437	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4670	0.4667	0.4669	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1630	0.2230	0.1875	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.318

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	650333
playerID	650333
playerName	Luis Arraez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Eric Haase (606992) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 6

All-history rows before 20260517: 6

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	2.000	0.667	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.000	0.200	0.500
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.333	0.167	0.167
predicted_R	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.523	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.700	0.000	-0.200	0.500
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.833	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.523	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.416	0.083
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.188	0.021
predicted_H	0.816	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.204	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.000
predicted_R	0.777	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.452	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.523	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.710	0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.416	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.187	-0.002
predicted_H	0.804	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.042
predicted_R	0.756	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.440	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.499	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.717	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.059

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.7059	0.2941	0.1177	0.1765	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	6	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.7000	0.3000	0.1000	0.2000	0.0500	0.2000
season	0.60	6	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.7000	0.3000	0.1000	0.2000	0.0500	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.6300
predicted_AVG	0.2650
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_H	0.9620
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.2400
predicted_OBP	0.3167
predicted_R	0.6320
predicted_RBI	0.5340
predicted_SLG	0.5226
predicted_SO	0.8230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2000	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.6300	3.4156	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2650	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2440	0.1884	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9620	0.8161	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2400	0.2039	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3167	0.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8330	0.6320	0.7771	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5340	0.4517	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5230	0.5226	0.5229	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.8230	0.7104	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	606992
playerID	606992
playerName	Eric Haase
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Casey Schmitt (669477) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 37

All-history rows before 20260517: 37

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2950

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.8000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.757	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.757	5.000	1.243	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.800	-0.295	-0.800
predicted_BB	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.108	4.000	-1.108	-4.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.216	2.000	-0.216	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.800	-0.344	-0.800
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.514	2.000	-0.514	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.568	3.000	-0.568	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.534	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.540	2.000	-0.540	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.892	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.892	1.000	2.108	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.757	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.162	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.534	-
predicted_SO	0.892	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.023	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.785	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000
predicted_BB	0.175	0.013
predicted_H	1.049	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.248	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.556	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.534	0.000
predicted_SO	0.943	0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.785	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.174	-0.002
predicted_H	1.033	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.123	0.000
predicted_HR	0.243	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.034
predicted_R	0.541	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.541	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.527	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.951	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.064

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.6000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1500	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	2.000	12.000	0.2821	0.3333	0.5897	0.2821	0.1026	0.1795	0.0513	0.3077
season	0.60	37	-	139.000	41.000	8.000	1.000	8.000	21.000	19.000	6.000	33.000	0.2950	0.3444	0.5396	0.2950	0.0575	0.1511	0.0432	0.2374

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1400
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.8280
predicted_AVG	0.2852
predicted_BB	0.1950
predicted_H	1.0920
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.2600
predicted_OBP	0.3392
predicted_R	0.6180
predicted_RBI	0.5790
predicted_SLG	0.5341
predicted_SO	1.0180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.1400	0.1855	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0160	0.0226	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7570	3.8280	3.7855	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2852	0.2851	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1620	0.1950	0.1753	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0920	1.0489	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2600	0.2480	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3392	0.3391	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.6180	0.5558	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5790	0.5557	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5340	0.5341	0.5340	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8920	1.0180	0.9426	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.8
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	10
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669477
playerID	669477
playerName	Casey Schmitt
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2350

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0700

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.311	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.311	1.000	-0.311	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.067	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.067	5.000	-1.067	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.600	0.098	-0.267
predicted_BB	0.156	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.156	0.000	0.844	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.956	3.000	0.044	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.600	0.233	-0.100
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.289	2.000	-0.289	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.800	-0.027	-0.467
predicted_SO	1.244	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.244	0.000	-1.244	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.311	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.067	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.156	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	1.244	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.309	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.057	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.286	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.163	0.007
predicted_H	1.093	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.324	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.384	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.000
predicted_SO	1.202	-0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.309	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.057	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.162	-0.002
predicted_H	1.076	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.025
predicted_R	0.315	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.373	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.379	-0.022
predicted_SO	1.213	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 4.067

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.4000	0.4286	0.5000	0.4000	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	15.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.3571	0.3721	0.4286	0.3571	0.0000	0.1667	0.0238	0.2381
season	0.60	45	-	183.000	43.000	14.000	3.000	13.000	15.000	7.000	56.000	0.2350	0.2670	0.3607	0.2350	0.0164	0.0710	0.0382	0.3060

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3060
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0420
predicted_AVG	0.2858
predicted_BB	0.1730
predicted_H	1.1550
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.3183
predicted_R	0.3110
predicted_RBI	0.4030
predicted_SLG	0.4012
predicted_SO	1.1410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3110	0.3060	0.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0670	4.0420	4.0567	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2858	0.2859	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1560	0.1730	0.1630	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.1550	1.0931	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0520	0.0508	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3183	0.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3110	0.3240	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4030	0.3835	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4012	0.4011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2440	1.1410	1.2017	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Adrian Houser (605288) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 8

All-history rows before 20260517: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_BB	1.750	3.000	3.250	2.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	3.375	2.000	0.625	2.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	6.000	3.000	0.000	3.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.987	5.200	0.013	-0.200
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_SO	2.875	4.000	5.125	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.000	18.000	28.000	9.000	13.000	7.000	6.2308	1.4231	0.6923	1.0769	0.3462	0.5000	0.2692
last_10	0.35	8	42.000	27.000	48.000	14.000	23.000	8.000	5.7857	1.4762	0.6429	1.1429	0.3333	0.5476	0.1905
season	0.20	8	42.000	27.000	48.000	14.000	23.000	8.000	5.7857	1.4762	0.6429	1.1429	0.3333	0.5476	0.1905

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9000
predicted_ER	3.1770
predicted_ERA	5.3608
predicted_H	5.5270
predicted_HR	1.0680
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	3.6480
predicted_WHIP	1.3926

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	1.9000	3.4887	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	3.1770	3.5988	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3608	5.3608	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.5270	5.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0680	0.5207	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	3.6480	5.8784	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3926	1.3926	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	6
R	4
ER	4
BB	5
SO	8
HR	0
BF	26
Pitches	109

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.79
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	605288
playerID	605288
playerName	Adrian Houser
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.211	1.000	0.789	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.526	1.000	0.474	0.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.905	0.200	1.095	1.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.105	2.000	-0.105	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	5.4000	1.4000	0.6000	0.6000	0.8000	1.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	9.000	2.000	2.2500	1.2500	0.2500	0.6667	0.5833	0.7500	0.1667
season	0.20	19	20.000	4.000	10.000	12.000	21.000	3.000	1.8000	1.1000	0.2000	0.5000	0.6000	1.0500	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5400
predicted_ER	0.4580
predicted_ERA	3.9219
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9890
predicted_WHIP	1.3038

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5400	0.2238	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4580	0.7753	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9219	3.9219	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8310	1.5155	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2010	0.6688	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9890	0.9954	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3038	1.3038	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.474	1.000	0.526	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.916	1.000	0.084	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	1.000	1.211	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.9286	0.6429	0.2143	0.4286	0.2143	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	1.8000	0.9000	0.2000	0.5000	0.4000	0.4000
season	0.20	19	18.100	5.000	9.000	6.000	15.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.4909	0.3273	0.8182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2130
predicted_ER	0.2230
predicted_ERA	3.2660
predicted_H	0.4540
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4680
predicted_WHIP	1.0856

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2130	0.0864	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2230	0.0904	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2660	3.2660	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4540	0.7786	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4680	1.3788	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0856	1.0856	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Home Team: OAK

Jeff McNeil (643446) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 36

All-history rows before 20260517: 36

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2913

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.528	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.528	3.000	0.472	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.000	-0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.028	0.000	-1.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.000	-0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.000	-0.386	0.000
predicted_SO	0.472	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.472	1.000	-0.472	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.528	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	0.472	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.523	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.283	-0.023
predicted_H	0.839	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.000
predicted_R	0.361	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.404	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.528	0.056

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.523	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.285	0.001
predicted_H	0.844	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.031	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.010
predicted_R	0.365	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.408	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.335	-0.009
predicted_SO	0.526	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.1250	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.2000	0.2432	0.2571	0.2000	0.0000	0.1429	0.0286	0.2286
season	0.60	36	-	127.000	37.000	9.000	1.000	14.000	12.000	11.000	17.000	0.2913	0.3521	0.3858	0.2913	0.0079	0.1102	0.0866	0.1339

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2220
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5160
predicted_AVG	0.2508
predicted_BB	0.2490
predicted_H	0.8820
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.3066
predicted_R	0.4030
predicted_RBI	0.4240
predicted_SLG	0.3437
predicted_SO	0.6130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2220	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5280	3.5160	3.5232	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2508	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.2490	0.2833	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8820	0.8387	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3066	0.3068	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4030	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4240	0.4036	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3437	0.3439	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4720	0.6130	0.5283	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	643446
playerID	643446
playerName	Jeff McNeil
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2704

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.614	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.614	3.000	1.386	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.000	-0.070	0.200
predicted_BB	0.932	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.932	1.000	-0.932	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.977	0.000	0.023	1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.438	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.426	0.250	-0.226	-0.050
predicted_R	0.659	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.659	1.000	0.341	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.960	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.659	0.000	0.341	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.609	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.484	0.000	-0.284	0.200
predicted_SO	1.364	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.364	1.000	0.636	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.614	-
predicted_AVG	0.301	-
predicted_BB	0.932	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.438	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.960	-
predicted_SLG	0.609	-
predicted_SO	1.364	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.010
predicted_3B	0.026	0.003
predicted_AB	3.593	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.000
predicted_BB	0.857	-0.075
predicted_H	1.065	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.139	-
predicted_HR	0.273	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.438	0.000
predicted_R	0.719	0.060
predicted_RBI	0.964	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.609	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.294	-0.070

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.593	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.862	0.004
predicted_H	1.072	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.139	0.000
predicted_HR	0.275	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.434	-0.004
predicted_R	0.728	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.976	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.596	-0.013
predicted_SO	1.288	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.076

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	9.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	0.3750	0.5238	1.0000	0.3750	0.1875	0.5625	0.1875	0.3750
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	10.000	7.000	9.000	0.3611	0.4889	0.7500	0.3611	0.0833	0.3611	0.1944	0.2500
season	0.60	44	-	159.000	43.000	8.000	1.000	8.000	29.000	29.000	41.000	60.000	0.2704	0.4257	0.4843	0.2704	0.0503	0.1824	0.2579	0.3774

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2060
predicted_3B	0.0310
predicted_AB	3.5630
predicted_AVG	0.3010
predicted_BB	0.7510
predicted_H	1.0730
predicted_HBP	0.1390
predicted_HR	0.2760
predicted_OBP	0.4382
predicted_R	0.8040
predicted_RBI	0.9700
predicted_SLG	0.6088
predicted_SO	1.1940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2060	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0310	0.0263	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6140	3.5630	3.5930	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3010	0.3010	0.3010	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9320	0.7510	0.8574	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.0730	1.0654	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1390	0.1390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2760	0.2725	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4380	0.4382	0.4381	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.8040	0.7188	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9600	0.9700	0.9641	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6090	0.6088	0.6089	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3640	1.1940	1.2939	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Carlos Cortes (666126) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 27

All-history rows before 20260517: 27

System season_avg: 0.3300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3297

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.370	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.370	3.000	0.630	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.330	0.000	-0.330	0.000
predicted_BB	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.111	0.000	-1.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.000	-0.380	0.000
predicted_R	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_SO	0.370	3.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.370	1.000	2.630	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.370	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.296	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	-
predicted_R	0.407	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.439	-
predicted_SO	0.370	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.015
predicted_3B	0.031	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.411	0.041
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.284	-0.012
predicted_H	0.928	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.092	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.000
predicted_R	0.383	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.000
predicted_SO	0.425	0.055

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.411	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.285	0.001
predicted_H	0.934	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.093	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.003
predicted_R	0.387	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.415	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.432	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.423	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.1875	0.2222	0.3125	0.1875	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2778	0.3077	0.3333	0.2778	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667
season	0.60	27	-	91.000	30.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	15.000	11.000	8.000	10.000	0.3297	0.3800	0.5385	0.3297	0.0440	0.1648	0.0879	0.1099

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2230
predicted_3B	0.0210
predicted_AB	3.4780
predicted_AVG	0.2800
predicted_BB	0.2640
predicted_H	0.9740
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.3273
predicted_R	0.3430
predicted_RBI	0.4270
predicted_SLG	0.4390
predicted_SO	0.5130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1850	0.2230	0.1995	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0210	0.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3700	3.4780	3.4113	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2800	0.2800	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2960	0.2640	0.2838	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9740	0.9283	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0960	0.0923	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3270	0.3273	0.3271	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4070	0.3430	0.3825	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4270	0.4103	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4390	0.4390	0.4390	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3700	0.5130	0.4247	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.33

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	666126
playerID	666126
playerName	Carlos Cortes
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2436

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	2.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	1.955	2.000
predicted_AB	3.545	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.545	4.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.423	0.667
predicted_BB	0.273	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.864	0.000	1.136	2.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.000	0.452	0.750
predicted_R	0.591	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.591	0.000	0.409	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.591	0.000	-0.591	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.471	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.487	0.000	1.513	2.000
predicted_SO	0.909	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.591	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.471	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	0.004
predicted_3B	0.043	-0.002
predicted_AB	3.598	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.272	-0.002
predicted_H	0.761	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.213	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000
predicted_R	0.588	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.482	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.471	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.898	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.598	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.273	0.001
predicted_H	0.766	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.215	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.016
predicted_R	0.595	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.487	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.443	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.893	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	2.000	2.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.4737	0.1579	0.1053	0.1053	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	0.2368	0.2927	0.5526	0.2368	0.0790	0.1579	0.0790	0.2895
season	0.60	22	-	78.000	19.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	13.000	6.000	20.000	0.2436	0.2976	0.4872	0.2436	0.0641	0.1667	0.0769	0.2564

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0390
predicted_AB	3.6870
predicted_AVG	0.2301
predicted_BB	0.2690
predicted_H	0.8480
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.2360
predicted_OBP	0.2845
predicted_R	0.5830
predicted_RBI	0.5350
predicted_SLG	0.4706
predicted_SO	0.8790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1020	0.0951	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0390	0.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5450	3.6870	3.5980	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2301	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2690	0.2715	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8480	0.7615	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2360	0.2134	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2845	0.2842	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5910	0.5830	0.5880	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5350	0.4817	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4710	0.4706	0.4709	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	0.8790	0.8978	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	2
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Darell Hernaiz (687231) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2581

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.050	1.000	-0.050	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.100	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.100	4.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.500	0.075	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	2.000	0.200	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.500	0.157	0.000
predicted_R	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.323	0.750	0.011	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.100	-
predicted_AVG	0.295	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.176	0.076
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.000
predicted_BB	0.363	-0.037
predicted_H	0.851	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.370	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.241	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000
predicted_SO	0.631	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.176	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.364	0.002
predicted_H	0.856	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	-0.012
predicted_R	0.374	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.244	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.044
predicted_SO	0.628	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.270 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.4667	0.4667	0.5333	0.4667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.3438	0.4000	0.3750	0.3438	0.0000	0.0938	0.0938	0.2188
season	0.60	20	-	62.000	16.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	8.000	12.000	0.2581	0.3429	0.3226	0.2581	0.0161	0.0806	0.1290	0.1935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3100
predicted_AVG	0.2951
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_H	0.9760
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3569
predicted_R	0.4050
predicted_RBI	0.2790
predicted_SLG	0.3811
predicted_SO	0.6860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0500	0.1150	0.0735	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1000	3.3100	3.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2950	0.2951	0.2950	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.2970	0.3627	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9760	0.8510	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0540	0.0451	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3569	0.3570	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.4050	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2790	0.2414	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3811	0.3810	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6860	0.6312	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	687231
playerID	687231
playerName	Darell Hernaiz
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	OAK
teamID	20

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 28

All-history rows before 20260517: 28

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2056

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	4.000	-0.821	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.500	0.128	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	2.000	0.214	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	1.000	0.786	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.500	0.207	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	1.000	0.643	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	3.000	0.250	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.445	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.393	1.250	0.941	0.083
predicted_SO	1.357	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.357	0.000	0.643	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.821	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.445	-
predicted_SO	1.357	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.792	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.503	0.003
predicted_H	0.883	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.203	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.000
predicted_R	0.353	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.681	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.000
predicted_SO	1.286	-0.071

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.792	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.505	0.002
predicted_H	0.888	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.205	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.006
predicted_R	0.358	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.689	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.422	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.279	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.821

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.1667	0.1667	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	3.000	7.000	12.000	0.3056	0.4186	0.6111	0.3056	0.0833	0.2500	0.1944	0.3333
season	0.60	28	-	107.000	22.000	2.000	6.000	21.000	10.000	14.000	38.000	0.2056	0.2927	0.3925	0.2056	0.0561	0.1963	0.1308	0.3551

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1360
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7460
predicted_AVG	0.2408
predicted_BB	0.5080
predicted_H	0.9020
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.2080
predicted_OBP	0.3296
predicted_R	0.3480
predicted_RBI	0.6970
predicted_SLG	0.4454
predicted_SO	1.1750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.1360	0.0965	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8210	3.7460	3.7916	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2408	0.2409	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5080	0.5031	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9020	0.8826	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2080	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3296	0.3298	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3480	0.3535	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.6970	0.6806	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4450	0.4454	0.4452	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3570	1.1750	1.2855	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Lawrence Butler (671732) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 32

All-history rows before 20260517: 32

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	2.000	-0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_BB	0.562	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.562	1.000	0.438	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.656	0.000	-0.656	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.333	-0.050	-0.083
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_SO	1.031	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.031	1.000	0.969	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.562	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.272	-
predicted_SO	1.031	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.458	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.573	0.011
predicted_H	0.588	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.508	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.272	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.033	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.458	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.575	0.003
predicted_H	0.592	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.018
predicted_R	0.514	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.243	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.253	-0.019
predicted_SO	1.028	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.1333	0.2778	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	9.000	10.000	0.1667	0.3590	0.2000	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.3000	0.3333
season	0.60	32	-	112.000	21.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	16.000	18.000	33.000	0.1875	0.3000	0.2946	0.1875	0.0268	0.1071	0.1607	0.2946

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0930
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3930
predicted_AVG	0.1859
predicted_BB	0.5890
predicted_H	0.6310
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3069
predicted_R	0.5210
predicted_RBI	0.2560
predicted_SLG	0.2718
predicted_SO	1.0350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.0930	0.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.3930	3.4577	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1859	0.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5620	0.5890	0.5727	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6310	0.5881	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0620	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3069	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5210	0.5083	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2560	0.2403	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2720	0.2718	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0310	1.0350	1.0326	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-CF
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	671732
playerID	671732
playerName	Lawrence Butler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jonah Heim (641680) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 2

All-history rows before 20260517: 2

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.1910

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by 0.1910. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AB	3.357	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.667	0.667
predicted_BB	0.357	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.750	0.750
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.371	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	1.333	1.333
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.357	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.425	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.335	-0.022
predicted_H	0.624	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.097	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.000
predicted_R	0.316	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.548	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000
predicted_SO	0.537	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.425	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.336	0.002
predicted_H	0.628	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.011	0.000
predicted_HR	0.097	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.257	-0.008
predicted_R	0.320	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.554	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.350	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.535	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.1176	0.1579	0.3529	0.1177	0.0588	0.3529	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2222	0.2564	0.4167	0.2222	0.0278	0.1944	0.0556	0.1389
season	0.60	14	-	47.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	0.1915	0.2642	0.3404	0.1915	0.0213	0.1702	0.1064	0.1489

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2540
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5530
predicted_AVG	0.2049
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_H	0.7280
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.2644
predicted_R	0.3730
predicted_RBI	0.6390
predicted_SLG	0.3714
predicted_SO	0.6080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2540	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3570	3.5530	3.4245	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2049	0.2050	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.2920	0.3346	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7280	0.6244	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1090	0.0965	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2644	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.3730	0.3160	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.6390	0.5479	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3714	0.3711	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6080	0.5372	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	641680
playerID	641680
playerName	Jonah Heim
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	OAK
teamID	20

Tyler Soderstrom (691016) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.1990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1988

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	3.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.199	0.333	0.051	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.762	1.000	0.238	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.500	-0.032	-0.250
predicted_R	0.524	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.667	-0.141	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.905	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.905	0.000	1.095	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.524	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	0.905	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.340	0.007
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.847	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.185	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.382	-0.047
predicted_H	0.682	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.067	-
predicted_HR	0.092	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.000
predicted_R	0.499	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.319	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	0.874	-0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.340	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.847	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.178	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.384	0.002
predicted_H	0.687	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.093	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.253	-0.004
predicted_R	0.505	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.323	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.350	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.870	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.3000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.1282	0.2093	0.2821	0.1282	0.0256	0.0256	0.0769	0.2564
season	0.60	42	-	161.000	32.000	14.000	1.000	5.000	20.000	22.000	18.000	38.000	0.1988	0.2818	0.3913	0.1988	0.0311	0.1242	0.1118	0.2360

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3500
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8680
predicted_AVG	0.1847
predicted_BB	0.3150
predicted_H	0.7150
predicted_HBP	0.0670
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.2570
predicted_R	0.4620
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.3574
predicted_SO	0.8300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.3500	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.8680	3.8473	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1847	0.1849	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.3150	0.3824	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7150	0.6825	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0670	0.0670	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0960	0.0925	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2570	0.2570	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5240	0.4620	0.4987	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3330	0.3194	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3574	0.3572	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9050	0.8300	0.8744	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.199

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	691016
playerID	691016
playerName	Tyler Soderstrom
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jeffrey Springs (605488) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 9

All-history rows before 20260517: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.667	3.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.556	4.000	0.444	-1.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	5.000	7.000	1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.367	5.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	4.889	5.000	1.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.100	19.000	34.000	7.000	24.000	7.000	7.0274	1.6849	0.7808	1.3973	0.2877	0.9863	0.2877
last_10	0.35	9	49.000	23.000	45.000	15.000	44.000	7.000	4.2245	1.2245	0.4694	0.9184	0.3061	0.8980	0.1429
season	0.20	9	49.000	23.000	45.000	15.000	44.000	7.000	4.2245	1.2245	0.4694	0.9184	0.3061	0.8980	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6500
predicted_ER	3.0070
predicted_ERA	5.3249
predicted_H	5.6670
predicted_HR	0.9940
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.8440
predicted_WHIP	1.4399

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.6500	1.3244	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	3.0070	3.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3249	5.3249	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	5.6670	5.8338	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9940	0.4961	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	4.8440	5.4230	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4399	1.4399	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	6
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	99

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	4.22
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	98
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	605488
playerID	605488
playerName	Jeffrey Springs
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 17

All-history rows before 20260517: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.824	1.000	-0.824	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.788	1.000	0.212	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.471	2.000	1.529	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.5000	1.0000	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000	0.7500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	10.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	3.7241	1.4483	0.4138	1.0345	0.4138	0.5172	0.1035
season	0.20	17	16.200	5.000	14.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	2.7000	1.0800	0.3000	0.8400	0.2400	0.4800	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_ER	0.4250
predicted_ERA	4.0652
predicted_H	0.8980
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7700
predicted_WHIP	1.2595

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2870	0.1136	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4250	0.1682	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0652	4.0652	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8980	0.3554	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1340	0.0530	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7700	1.5132	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2595	1.2595	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Mark Leiter Jr. (643410) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.238	2.000	0.762	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.814	2.000	0.186	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.048	2.000	-0.048	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	6.000	8.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	9.5294	1.5882	1.0588	1.4118	0.1765	1.2353	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	12.000	0.000	6.3000	1.2000	0.7000	1.0000	0.2000	1.2000	0.0000
season	0.20	21	19.200	15.000	26.000	6.000	22.000	2.000	6.8644	1.6271	0.7627	1.3220	0.3051	1.1186	0.1017

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3050
predicted_ER	0.6450
predicted_ERA	5.8046
predicted_H	1.0750
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0620
predicted_WHIP	1.3796

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3050	0.1259	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6450	0.8535	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.8046	5.8046	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0750	1.6182	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0820	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0620	1.0256	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3796	1.3796	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.86
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	643410
playerID	643410
playerName	Mark Leiter Jr.
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Scott Barlow (605130) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.524	2.000	-0.524	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.871	1.000	0.229	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.952	2.000	1.048	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	0.8571	0.2143	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	2.6129	0.5806	0.2903	0.3871	0.1935	0.8710	0.0000
season	0.20	20	21.100	4.000	9.000	7.000	20.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.4219	0.3281	0.9375	0.0469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_ER	0.3600
predicted_ERA	3.2436
predicted_H	0.7860
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0080
predicted_WHIP	1.0960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3100	0.7093	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3600	0.1517	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2436	3.2436	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7860	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0080	1.5821	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0960	1.0960	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	605130
playerID	605130
playerName	Scott Barlow
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 24

All-history rows before 20260517: 24

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.708	0.000	0.292	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.792	1.000	-0.792	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.683	1.000	-0.483	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	1.2000	0.3000	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.100	2.000	11.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	2.4545	2.1818	0.2727	1.5000	0.6818	1.5000	0.1364
season	0.20	24	22.000	6.000	19.000	17.000	24.000	2.000	2.4545	1.6364	0.2727	0.8636	0.7727	1.0909	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_ER	0.2220
predicted_ERA	2.8689
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8170
predicted_WHIP	1.5261

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3130	0.7084	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2220	0.0942	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8689	2.8689	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7520	0.3192	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0700	0.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8170	0.3468	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5261	1.5261	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

20260517_TEX@HOU

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 HOU", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 HOU", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 HOU", "winner": "HOU"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 0, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 0 - 5 HOU", "winner": "HOU"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -3, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	TEX 3 - 4 HOU	HOU	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	TEX 0 - 5 HOU	HOU	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away TEX	5-5	0.500	3.20	3.30	-1	2L	cold	strong
Home HOU	4-6	0.400	2.90	4.50	-16	2W	cold	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away TEX	21-24	0.467	-5	-0.111	True
Home HOU	19-28	0.404	-43	-0.915	True
Signal	-	-	-0.804	-0.897	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	TEX @ HOU	1 - 4	HOU	3	blowout
2026-05-16	TEX @ HOU	0 - 2	HOU	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target TEX	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target HOU	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized TEX	31	9	1	0	1	1	9
Player finalized HOU	31	9	2	0	3	2	9
Player model fractional TEX	30.79	6.63	3.33	0.84	3.18	3.10	7.77
Player model fractional HOU	30.59	6.66	3.27	1.20	3.16	2.88	7.69
Simulation box TEX	32	5	0	0	0	2	10
Simulation box HOU	30	6	5	2	5	2	10

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away TEX	Starter	Nathan Eovaldi	6.10	5	9	5	1	3.46	1.11	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Jacob Latz	1.10	0	0	1	0	2.33	0.85	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Jakob Junis	0.10	0	1	0	0	3.27	1.11	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Cole Winn	0	0	0	0	0	4.75	1.55	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Gavin Collyer	0	0	0	0	0	3.03	1.15	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Tyler Alexander	0	0	0	0	1	3.71	1.37	True
Home HOU	Starter	Peter Lambert	6.20	0	7	3	1	3.48	1.22	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan King	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.88	1.36	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Enyel De Los Santos	0.20	0	1	1	0	4.24	1.27	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan Abreu	0.10	0	1	0	1	3.64	1.35	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: TEX

Joc Pederson (592626) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 34

All-history rows before 20260517: 34

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1979

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.824	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.824	3.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.333	0.135	0.000
predicted_BB	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	2.000	-0.471	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.559	1.000	0.441	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.600	0.190	-0.100
predicted_R	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.292	0.333	0.042	0.000
predicted_SO	0.912	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.912	1.000	0.088	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.824	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.265	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	0.912	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.918	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.490	0.020
predicted_H	0.554	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.000
predicted_R	0.272	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	0.937	0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.918	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.491	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.095	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.006
predicted_R	0.277	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.306	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.323	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.936	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.308)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	0.1333	0.3158	0.3333	0.1333	0.0667	0.1333	0.2667	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	10.000	0.2069	0.3333	0.3793	0.2069	0.0345	0.1379	0.2069	0.3448
season	0.60	34	-	96.000	19.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	9.000	16.000	31.000	0.1979	0.3103	0.2917	0.1979	0.0208	0.0833	0.1667	0.3229

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.0640
predicted_AVG	0.1985
predicted_BB	0.5210
predicted_H	0.6080
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.3138
predicted_R	0.2840
predicted_RBI	0.3320
predicted_SLG	0.3334
predicted_SO	0.9760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0880	0.1090	0.0962	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8240	3.0640	2.9176	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1985	0.1988	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.5210	0.4905	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6080	0.5543	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1000	0.0939	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3138	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2650	0.2840	0.2724	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3320	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3334	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9120	0.9760	0.9370	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	592626
playerID	592626
playerName	Joc Pederson
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TEX
teamID	28

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 41

All-history rows before 20260517: 41

System season_avg: 0.3100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3101

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.317	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.854	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.854	4.000	0.146	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.310	0.000	-0.060	0.250
predicted_BB	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.268	1.000	-0.268	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.195	0.000	-0.195	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.200	-0.110	0.050
predicted_R	0.463	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.463	0.000	-0.463	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.487	0.000	-0.237	0.250
predicted_SO	0.634	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.634	1.000	-0.634	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.317	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.854	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.268	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.463	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.397	-
predicted_SO	0.634	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.871	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.259	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.253	-0.015
predicted_H	0.973	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.470	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.328	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.000
predicted_SO	0.670	0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.871	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.253	0.000
predicted_H	0.983	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.047	0.000
predicted_HR	0.094	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.007
predicted_R	0.478	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.334	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.004
predicted_SO	0.670	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.854

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	0.2250	0.2619	0.3250	0.2250	0.0250	0.0250	0.0250	0.2000
season	0.60	41	-	158.000	49.000	13.000	5.000	20.000	19.000	11.000	26.000	0.3101	0.3605	0.4873	0.3101	0.0316	0.1266	0.0696	0.1646

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2410
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8950
predicted_AVG	0.2585
predicted_BB	0.2310
predicted_H	1.0070
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.3065
predicted_R	0.4800
predicted_RBI	0.3400
predicted_SLG	0.3970
predicted_SO	0.7230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3170	0.2410	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8540	3.8950	3.8707	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2585	0.2588	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2680	0.2310	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0070	0.9732	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0980	0.0933	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3065	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4630	0.4800	0.4699	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3400	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3970	0.3970	0.3970	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6340	0.7230	0.6702	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Brandon Nimmo (607043) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2679

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.047	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_AB	3.907	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.907	5.000	-0.907	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.419	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.419	0.000	0.581	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.047	0.000	-1.047	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.000	-0.097	0.250
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_SO	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.860	2.000	-0.860	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.047	-
predicted_AB	3.907	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.419	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.352	-
predicted_SO	0.860	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.059	0.012
predicted_AB	3.900	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.402	-0.017
predicted_H	0.886	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.392	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.204	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.865	0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.900	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.402	0.000
predicted_H	0.895	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.006
predicted_R	0.399	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.208	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.008
predicted_SO	0.865	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.907

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.3000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	0.1579	0.2558	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.1316	0.2105
season	0.60	43	-	168.000	45.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	12.000	18.000	18.000	37.000	0.2679	0.3474	0.4048	0.2679	0.0238	0.0714	0.1071	0.2202

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0770
predicted_AB	3.8900
predicted_AVG	0.2339
predicted_BB	0.3770
predicted_H	0.9100
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3069
predicted_R	0.3530
predicted_RBI	0.2100
predicted_SLG	0.3518
predicted_SO	0.8730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.1090	0.1409	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0470	0.0770	0.0593	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9070	3.8900	3.9000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2339	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4190	0.3770	0.4018	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9100	0.8864	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0621	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3069	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.3530	0.3919	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2100	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3520	0.3518	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8600	0.8730	0.8653	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	607043
playerID	607043
playerName	Brandon Nimmo
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Kyle Higashioka (543309) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

System season_avg: 0.1720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1719

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1720

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.556	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	3.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.233	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.257	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.234	0.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_SO	1.167	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	0.000	0.833	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.181	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.233	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.257	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.577	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.000
predicted_BB	0.298	-0.035
predicted_H	0.588	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.000
predicted_R	0.227	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.279	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.139	-0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.577	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.298	0.000
predicted_H	0.594	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.053	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.230	-0.003
predicted_R	0.231	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.283	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.231	-0.026
predicted_SO	1.138	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1176	0.1176	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.0000	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	12.000	0.1389	0.1622	0.1667	0.1389	0.0000	0.0556	0.0278	0.3333
season	0.60	18	-	64.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	21.000	0.1719	0.2429	0.2344	0.1719	0.0156	0.0781	0.0938	0.3281

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6130
predicted_AVG	0.1813
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	0.6550
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.2327
predicted_R	0.2350
predicted_RBI	0.3110
predicted_SLG	0.2567
predicted_SO	1.0890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.0890	0.0680	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5560	3.6130	3.5766	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1810	0.1813	0.1811	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2370	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6550	0.5880	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0580	0.0529	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2330	0.2327	0.2329	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.2350	0.2267	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3110	0.2785	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2570	0.2567	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.0890	1.1387	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.172

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	543309
playerID	543309
playerName	Kyle Higashioka
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

Evan Carter (694497) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 40

All-history rows before 20260517: 40

System season_avg: 0.1830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1825

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.150	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.150	1.000	-0.150	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.183	0.000	-0.183	0.000
predicted_BB	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.550	2.000	0.450	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.575	0.000	-0.575	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.667	-0.057	-0.417
predicted_R	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.425	0.000	-0.425	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.325	0.000	-0.325	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.321	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	0.000	1.200	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.150	-
predicted_AVG	0.183	-
predicted_BB	0.550	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.425	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.321	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.110	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.160	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.000
predicted_BB	0.529	-0.021
predicted_H	0.575	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.112	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.000
predicted_R	0.425	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.294	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.321	0.000
predicted_SO	0.754	-0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.110	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.160	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.001
predicted_BB	0.529	0.000
predicted_H	0.581	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.113	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.004
predicted_R	0.433	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.299	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.005
predicted_SO	0.754	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.1429	0.2500	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	0.1667	0.3056	0.3667	0.1667	0.0667	0.1333	0.2000	0.1667
season	0.60	40	-	126.000	23.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	17.000	22.000	32.000	0.1825	0.3067	0.3413	0.1825	0.0397	0.1032	0.1746	0.2540

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1750
predicted_AVG	0.1835
predicted_BB	0.4980
predicted_H	0.5830
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_OBP	0.2968
predicted_R	0.4260
predicted_RBI	0.3000
predicted_SLG	0.3214
predicted_SO	0.6860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0880	0.1102	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1500	3.1750	3.1600	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1830	0.1835	0.1832	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5500	0.4980	0.5291	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.5830	0.5752	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1150	0.1120	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2968	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4250	0.4260	0.4254	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3000	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3210	0.3214	0.3212	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.6860	0.7543	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.183

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	694497
playerID	694497
playerName	Evan Carter
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Alejandro Osuna (696030) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 15

All-history rows before 20260517: 15

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.600	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.600	4.000	1.400
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.250	0.019
predicted_BB	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.467	0.000	-0.467
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.133	0.000	-0.133
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	0.400
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.250	-0.150
predicted_R	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.267	0.000	-0.267
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333
predicted_SLG	0.301	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.256	0.250	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.267	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.301	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.774	0.174
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.442	-0.026
predicted_H	0.598	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.225	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000
predicted_R	0.296	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.306	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.301	0.000
predicted_SO	0.701	0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.774	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.442	0.000
predicted_H	0.604	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.225	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	-0.034
predicted_R	0.302	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.281	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.701	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2143	0.3889	0.2143	0.2143	0.0714	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	7.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.2414	0.3714	0.2414	0.2414	0.1379	0.1035	0.2414
season	0.60	15	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	10.000	0.2308	0.4000	0.2564	0.2308	0.1282	0.1795	0.2564

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.1120
predicted_AVG	0.2350
predicted_BB	0.3920
predicted_H	0.7310
predicted_HBP	0.2250
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.3595
predicted_R	0.3530
predicted_RBI	0.3760
predicted_SLG	0.3012
predicted_SO	0.7670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0850	0.0731	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6000	3.1120	2.7742	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2350	0.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.3920	0.4415	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.7310	0.5984	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2250	0.2250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0324	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3595	0.3592	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2670	0.3530	0.2963	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3760	0.3061	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3010	0.3012	0.3011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7670	0.7010	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-CF
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	696030
playerID	696030
playerName	Alejandro Osuna
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 31

All-history rows before 20260517: 31

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.387	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.387	5.000	0.613	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.200	-0.017	0.050
predicted_BB	0.387	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.387	0.000	-0.387	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.903	1.000	0.097	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.200	-0.089	0.050
predicted_R	0.516	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.516	0.000	-0.516	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.438	0.200	-0.188	0.050
predicted_SO	0.839	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.839	1.000	0.161	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.387	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.387	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.516	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	0.839	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.483	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.370	-0.017
predicted_H	0.801	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.119	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.536	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.416	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.421	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.918	0.079

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.483	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.370	0.000
predicted_H	0.809	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.000
predicted_R	0.545	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.423	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.414	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.917	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	14.000	0.2105	0.2791	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.3684
season	0.60	31	-	105.000	28.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	16.000	12.000	26.000	0.2667	0.3390	0.4381	0.2667	0.0286	0.1238	0.1143	0.2476

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2100
predicted_3B	0.0190
predicted_AB	3.6340
predicted_AVG	0.2425
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	0.8810
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_OBP	0.3065
predicted_R	0.5670
predicted_RBI	0.4560
predicted_SLG	0.4206
predicted_SO	1.0410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2260	0.2100	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0190	0.0269	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3870	3.6340	3.4835	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2425	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3870	0.3430	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8810	0.8012	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1330	0.1190	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3065	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5160	0.5670	0.5359	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4560	0.4158	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4206	0.4208	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8390	1.0410	0.9179	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TEX
teamID	28

Justin Foscue (679822) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 4

All-history rows before 20260517: 4

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	4.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.250	-0.231	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.231	0.250	-0.231	-0.250
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.462	0.250	-0.462	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.344	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.705	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.000
predicted_R	0.290	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.324	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	0.768	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.344	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.046	0.000
predicted_H	0.711	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.133	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.224	-0.059
predicted_R	0.295	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.073
predicted_SO	0.767	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	13.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2308	0.2308	0.4615	0.2308	0.0769	0.0769	0.2308
last_10	0.20	4	-	13.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2308	0.2308	0.4615	0.2308	0.0769	0.0769	0.2308
season	0.60	4	-	13.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2308	0.2308	0.4615	0.2308	0.0769	0.0769	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1200
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.6330
predicted_AVG	0.2400
predicted_BB	0.1880
predicted_H	0.8720
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_OBP	0.2826
predicted_R	0.4110
predicted_RBI	0.3990
predicted_SLG	0.4150
predicted_SO	0.8230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1200	0.0295	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.6330	3.3442	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2400	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1880	0.0462	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.8720	0.7046	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1660	0.1313	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2826	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.4110	0.2896	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3990	0.3243	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4150	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8230	0.7680	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	679822
playerID	679822
playerName	Justin Foscue
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jake Burger (669394) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.119	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.119	0.000	0.881	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	3.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.333	0.028	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.266	0.500	-0.016	-0.250
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.333	0.136	0.167
predicted_SO	1.095	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.095	1.000	0.905	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	1.095	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.762	-0.095
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.265	0.051
predicted_H	0.885	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.365	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.676	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000
predicted_SO	1.024	-0.071

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.762	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.265	0.000
predicted_H	0.893	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.137	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.032
predicted_R	0.372	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.688	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.375	-0.027
predicted_SO	1.023	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.857

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.4000	0.5000	0.6000	0.4000	0.0667	0.4000	0.2000	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.3235	0.2353	0.0294	0.2059	0.1177	0.1765
season	0.60	42	-	162.000	36.000	5.000	6.000	24.000	15.000	9.000	46.000	0.2222	0.2659	0.3642	0.2222	0.0370	0.1482	0.0556	0.2839

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6240
predicted_AVG	0.2580
predicted_BB	0.3390
predicted_H	0.9350
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_OBP	0.3201
predicted_R	0.3780
predicted_RBI	0.7150
predicted_SLG	0.4020
predicted_SO	0.9200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1190	0.0830	0.1044	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8570	3.6240	3.7622	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2580	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.3390	0.2648	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9350	0.8846	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1450	0.1361	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3201	0.3200	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3780	0.3655	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.7150	0.6764	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4020	0.4020	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0950	0.9200	1.0238	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669394
playerID	669394
playerName	Jake Burger
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Nathan Eovaldi (543135) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 8

All-history rows before 20260517: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.250	0.000	-0.250	1.000
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_ER	2.750	1.000	2.250	4.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.750	3.000	-0.750	2.000
predicted_IP	6.100	6.100	6.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.900	8.000	0.200	-1.900
predicted_SO	9.000	9.000	9.000	Pitching_SO	5.875	8.000	3.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 6.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	33.000	9.000	24.000	5.000	28.000	6.000	2.4545	0.8788	0.2727	0.7273	0.1515	0.8485	0.1818
last_10	0.35	8	47.200	22.000	46.000	10.000	47.000	10.000	4.1538	1.1748	0.4615	0.9650	0.2098	0.9860	0.2098
season	0.20	8	47.200	22.000	46.000	10.000	47.000	10.000	4.1538	1.1748	0.4615	0.9650	0.2098	0.9860	0.2098

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6040
predicted_ER	2.4610
predicted_ERA	3.4568
predicted_H	5.4780
predicted_HR	1.0720
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	5.8700
predicted_WHIP	1.1052

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.6040	1.2945	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	2.4610	3.7622	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4568	3.4568	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.4780	5.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	1.0720	1.5476	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.1000	6.1000	6.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.8700	5.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1052	1.1052	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.1
H	5
R	5
ER	5
BB	1
SO	9
HR	2
BF	25
Pitches	99

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	8.0
Pitching_Pitches	101
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	72
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	543135
playerID	543135
playerName	Nathan Eovaldi
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 18

All-history rows before 20260517: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	3.000	-0.278	-3.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.444	3.000	0.556	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.139	0.000	-0.039	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	0.000	-0.944	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.1429	0.5714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2647	0.0000	0.1765	0.0882	0.6177	0.0000
season	0.20	17	21.200	2.000	5.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	0.8308	0.4154	0.0923	0.2308	0.1846	0.7846	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3390
predicted_ER	0.3320
predicted_ERA	2.3323
predicted_H	0.7470
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0290
predicted_WHIP	0.8486

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3390	0.1434	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3320	0.1404	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3323	2.3323	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7470	0.8930	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0402	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0290	0.4351	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8486	0.8486	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 16

All-history rows before 20260517: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.625	2.000	-0.625	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.144	2.200	-1.044	-2.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.562	2.000	0.438	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	1.3500	0.7500	0.1500	0.6000	0.1500	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	3.0000	1.0000	0.3333	0.5833	0.4167	0.4167
season	0.20	16	19.000	4.000	10.000	5.000	9.000	1.8947	0.7895	0.2105	0.5263	0.2632	0.4737

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_ER	0.2770
predicted_ERA	3.2670
predicted_H	0.5980
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5610
predicted_WHIP	1.1141

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2520	0.1031	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2770	0.1133	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2670	3.2670	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5980	0.2447	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0233	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5610	0.8204	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1141	1.1141	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	1

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.89
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	22
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Cole Winn (668390) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_H	Pitching_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.795	1.000	-0.795	-1.000
predicted_SO	Pitching_SO	1.100	3.000	-1.100	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	4.1538	2.0769	0.4615	1.8461	0.2308	1.3846	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	7.000	13.000	2.000	12.000	1.000	7.5600	1.8000	0.8400	1.5600	0.2400	1.4400	0.1200
season	0.20	20	18.000	10.000	20.000	7.000	22.000	3.000	5.0000	1.5000	0.5556	1.1111	0.3889	1.2222	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1870
predicted_ER	0.2970
predicted_ERA	4.7455
predicted_H	0.6830
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6350
predicted_WHIP	1.5451

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1870	0.0755	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2970	0.1199	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7455	4.7455	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6830	0.2757	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6350	0.2563	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5451	1.5451	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	0
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	668390
playerID	668390
playerName	Cole Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Gavin Collyer (686560) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 12

All-history rows before 20260517: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	Pitching_BB	0.583	3.000	-0.583	-3.000
predicted_ER	Pitching_ER	0.250	3.000	-0.250	-3.000
predicted_H	Pitching_H	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_IP	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.708	0.000	-0.708	0.000
predicted_SO	Pitching_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.5625	0.3750	0.1875	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.8571	0.4286	0.4286	0.7500
season	0.20	11	9.200	4.000	4.000	8.000	0.8276	0.4138	0.4138	0.8276

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1870
predicted_ER	0.1750
predicted_ERA	3.0320
predicted_H	0.4090
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4670
predicted_WHIP	1.1509

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1870	0.0645	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1750	0.0603	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0320	3.0320	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4090	0.1410	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0490	0.0169	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.4670	2.1270	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1509	1.1509	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	0
Pitches	0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	686560
playerID	686560
playerName	Gavin Collyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Tyler Alexander (641302) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	1.000	0.700	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.150	0.000	-1.150	0.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.910	1.000	-0.910	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	3.3750	1.5000	0.3750	0.9375	0.5625	0.7500	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	4.000	12.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	3.3750	1.4062	0.3750	1.1250	0.2812	0.6562	0.0938
season	0.20	20	21.000	5.000	23.000	6.000	16.000	1.000	2.1429	1.3810	0.2381	1.0952	0.2857	0.7619	0.0476

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_ER	0.2620
predicted_ERA	3.7103
predicted_H	0.6250
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5390
predicted_WHIP	1.3743

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2500	0.6853	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2620	0.1099	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7103	3.7103	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6250	0.2623	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0820	0.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5390	0.8066	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3743	1.3743	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.14
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	641302
playerID	641302
playerName	Tyler Alexander
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Home Team: HOU

Zach Dezenzo (701305) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 6

All-history rows before 20260517: 6

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	3.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.333	-0.211	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.333	-0.286	-0.333
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.458	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.474	0.333	-0.474	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	1.000	-0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.458	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.317	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.273	0.107
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.746	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.365	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.374	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.458	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.146	-0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.317	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.273	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.331	-0.002
predicted_H	0.729	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.134	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.019
predicted_R	0.350	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.359	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.443	-0.014
predicted_SO	1.153	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250	0.4375
last_10	0.20	6	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.4737	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.3684
season	0.60	6	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.4737	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.3684

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2770
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.5500
predicted_AVG	0.2437
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_H	0.8650
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_OBP	0.3134
predicted_R	0.4470
predicted_RBI	0.4370
predicted_SLG	0.4578
predicted_SO	1.0920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2770	0.3174	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.5500	3.2735	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2437	0.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8650	0.7459	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1560	0.1372	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3134	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4470	0.3647	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4370	0.3742	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4580	0.4578	0.4579	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.0920	1.1462	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	701305
playerID	701305
playerName	Zach Dezenzo
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

César Salazar (663967) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 3

All-history rows before 20260517: 3

System season_avg: 0.1250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.667	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.667	2.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_BB	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.333	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.500	0.033	-0.167
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.327	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.863	0.196
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.609	-0.058
predicted_H	0.543	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.058	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.078	0.078
predicted_RBI	0.237	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.000
predicted_SO	0.137	0.137

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.863	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.605	-0.004
predicted_H	0.530	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.057	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.024
predicted_R	0.075	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.228	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.256	-0.071
predicted_SO	0.138	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	8.000	1.000	2.000	0.1250	0.3000	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.20	3	-	8.000	1.000	2.000	0.1250	0.3000	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500
season	0.60	3	-	8.000	1.000	2.000	0.1250	0.3000	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1250
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.5160
predicted_AVG	0.2142
predicted_BB	0.4160
predicted_H	0.7530
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.3038
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.3270
predicted_SLG	0.3274
predicted_SO	0.5930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1250	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6670	3.5160	2.8628	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2142	0.2140	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.4160	0.6091	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.7530	0.5430	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0850	0.0581	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3038	0.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3400	0.0784	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.3270	0.2370	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3270	0.3274	0.3271	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5930	0.1368	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.125

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	663967
playerID	663967
playerName	César Salazar
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Cole (805904) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 10

All-history rows before 20260517: 10

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.300	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.300	3.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.333	0.038	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.235	0.333	0.015	-0.083
predicted_R	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	1.000	0.800	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.424	1.333	-0.174	-1.083
predicted_SO	1.400	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.400	1.000	1.600	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.300	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	1.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.003
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.415	0.115
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.040	0.040
predicted_H	0.734	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.095	-
predicted_HR	0.148	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.000
predicted_R	0.241	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.383	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.340	-0.060

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.415	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.040	-0.000
predicted_H	0.717	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.095	0.000
predicted_HR	0.144	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.219	-0.053
predicted_R	0.232	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.368	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.028
predicted_SO	1.348	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.4210
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	14.000	0.2121	0.2353	0.4242	0.2121	0.0606	0.1212	0.4242
season	0.60	10	-	33.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	14.000	0.2121	0.2353	0.4242	0.2121	0.0606	0.1212	0.4242

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6670
predicted_AVG	0.2266
predicted_BB	0.1280
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HBP	0.0950
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.2719
predicted_R	0.3320
predicted_RBI	0.4340
predicted_SLG	0.3956
predicted_SO	1.2090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1110	0.1034	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3000	3.6670	3.4148	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2266	0.2269	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1280	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8310	0.7341	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0950	0.0950	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1650	0.1478	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2719	0.2720	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3320	0.2413	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4340	0.3832	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3956	0.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4000	1.2090	1.3402	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-LF
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	805904
playerID	805904
playerName	Zach Cole
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 47

All-history rows before 20260517: 47

System season_avg: 0.3220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3216

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.6000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.234	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.234	0.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.638	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.638	3.000	-0.638	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.322	0.333	0.012	0.000
predicted_BB	0.617	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.617	0.000	0.383	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.170	1.000	-0.170	0.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.319	1.000	-0.319	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.436	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.429	0.333	0.071	0.167
predicted_R	0.638	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.638	1.000	0.362	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.660	1.000	-0.660	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.656	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.649	1.333	-0.316	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.660	0.000	-0.660	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.638	-
predicted_AVG	0.324	-
predicted_BB	0.617	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.436	-
predicted_R	0.638	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.656	-
predicted_SO	0.660	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.569	-0.069
predicted_AVG	0.324	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.641	0.024
predicted_H	1.127	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.436	-0.000
predicted_R	0.611	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.656	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.684	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.569	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.637	-0.004
predicted_H	1.101	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.302	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.413	-0.023
predicted_R	0.587	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.519	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.627	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.688	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.303 HR/AB=0.083

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=20.0, weight=0.160, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	0.4000	0.5500	0.8667	0.4000	0.1333	0.1333	0.3333	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	11.000	0.3125	0.4359	0.6562	0.3125	0.0938	0.1250	0.2188	0.3438
season	0.60	47	-	171.000	55.000	11.000	15.000	31.000	30.000	29.000	31.000	0.3216	0.4293	0.6491	0.3216	0.0877	0.1813	0.1696	0.1813

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2160
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4710
predicted_AVG	0.3238
predicted_BB	0.6750
predicted_H	1.1240
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.3110
predicted_OBP	0.4356
predicted_R	0.5730
predicted_RBI	0.5410
predicted_SLG	0.6558
predicted_SO	0.7180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2340	0.2160	0.2266	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6380	3.4710	3.5691	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3240	0.3238	0.3239	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6170	0.6750	0.6409	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.1240	1.1275	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3110	0.3104	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4360	0.4356	0.4358	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6380	0.5730	0.6112	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5410	0.5404	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6560	0.6558	0.6559	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6600	0.7180	0.6839	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.322

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

Cam Smith (701358) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 42

All-history rows before 20260517: 42

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1905

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.000	0.143	0.333
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.048	0.333
predicted_R	0.381	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.381	0.000	0.619	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.293	0.000	0.374	0.667
predicted_SO	1.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	2.000	-0.167	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.144	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.248	-
predicted_R	0.381	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.219	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.463	-0.037
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.000
predicted_BB	0.433	0.004
predicted_H	0.456	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.000
predicted_R	0.338	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.223	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.000
predicted_SO	1.173	0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.463	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.129	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.430	-0.003
predicted_H	0.445	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.225	-0.023
predicted_R	0.324	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.214	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.207	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.180	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.127 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	0.0000	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.4667
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	0.0625	0.1667	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.3750
season	0.60	42	-	147.000	28.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	18.000	49.000	0.1905	0.2857	0.2925	0.1905	0.0204	0.1020	0.1225	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4090
predicted_AVG	0.1445
predicted_BB	0.4390
predicted_H	0.4930
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.2483
predicted_R	0.2740
predicted_RBI	0.2410
predicted_SLG	0.2193
predicted_SO	1.1820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0950	0.1235	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.4090	3.4631	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1440	0.1445	0.1442	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.4390	0.4331	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.4930	0.4556	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0520	0.0508	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2480	0.2483	0.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3810	0.2740	0.3376	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2410	0.2226	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2190	0.2193	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.1820	1.1731	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	701358
playerID	701358
playerName	Cam Smith
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Braden Shewmake (669699) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 11

All-history rows before 20260517: 11

System season_avg: 0.3170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3171

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	3.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.182	0.000	-1.182	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.443	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_SO	0.636	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.293	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.443	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.750	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.000
predicted_BB	0.039	0.039
predicted_H	1.003	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.000
predicted_R	0.377	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.496	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.443	0.000
predicted_SO	0.671	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.039	-0.000
predicted_H	0.980	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.123	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.050
predicted_R	0.362	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.476	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.054
predicted_SO	0.675	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.4000	0.3500	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	13.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	0.3421	0.3421	0.5263	0.3421	0.0526	0.1579	0.1579
season	0.60	11	-	41.000	13.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	7.000	0.3171	0.3171	0.4878	0.3171	0.0488	0.1463	0.1707

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7970
predicted_AVG	0.2929
predicted_BB	0.1190
predicted_H	1.1120
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.3187
predicted_R	0.4030
predicted_RBI	0.5490
predicted_SLG	0.4429
predicted_SO	0.7420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1420	0.1076	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	3.7970	3.7498	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2930	0.2929	0.2930	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1190	0.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.1120	1.0029	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1390	0.1262	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3187	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.4030	0.3767	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5490	0.4958	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4430	0.4429	0.4430	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.7420	0.6706	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.317

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669699
playerID	669699
playerName	Braden Shewmake
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Nick Allen (669397) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 7

All-history rows before 20260517: 7

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2381

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.095	0.333
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.000	0.029	0.333
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.000	0.048	0.333
predicted_SO	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.362	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.129	0.129
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.258	-0.028
predicted_H	0.704	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.000
predicted_R	0.416	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.198	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	0.597	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.129	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.256	-0.002
predicted_H	0.687	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.052	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.014
predicted_R	0.400	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.190	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.041
predicted_SO	0.601	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.2667	0.2667	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.1333
last_10	0.20	7	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.2857	0.2381	0.0952	0.1905
season	0.60	7	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.2857	0.2381	0.0952	0.1905

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.4520
predicted_AVG	0.2503
predicted_BB	0.1860
predicted_H	0.8640
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.2931
predicted_R	0.3840
predicted_RBI	0.2420
predicted_SLG	0.3623
predicted_SO	0.6630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1850	0.1549	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.4520	3.1286	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2503	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.1860	0.2576	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.8640	0.7037	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0630	0.0537	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2931	0.2930	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.3840	0.4162	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2420	0.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3620	0.3623	0.3621	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.6630	0.5972	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669397
playerID	669397
playerName	Nick Allen
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Brice Matthews (694728) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 30

All-history rows before 20260517: 30

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2059

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.248	0.000	-0.248	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_SO	1.133	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.133	0.000	0.867	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.243	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.346	-
predicted_SO	1.133	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.034	0.001
predicted_AB	3.494	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.184	-0.016
predicted_H	0.725	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.243	-0.000
predicted_R	0.413	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.299	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.000
predicted_SO	1.070	-0.063

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.494	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.183	-0.001
predicted_H	0.708	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.242	-0.001
predicted_R	0.397	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.287	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.003
predicted_SO	1.076	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	9.000	0.1842	0.1842	0.3158	0.1842	0.0263	0.0263	0.0000	0.2368
season	0.60	30	-	102.000	21.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	12.000	6.000	34.000	0.2059	0.2477	0.3824	0.2059	0.0392	0.1177	0.0588	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0350
predicted_AB	3.6430
predicted_AVG	0.2098
predicted_BB	0.1590
predicted_H	0.7640
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_OBP	0.2426
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.3140
predicted_SLG	0.3460
predicted_SO	0.9690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1050	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0350	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.6430	3.4940	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2098	0.2099	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1590	0.1841	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7640	0.7248	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1070	0.1027	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2430	0.2426	0.2428	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4350	0.4135	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3140	0.2993	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3460	0.3460	0.3460	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1330	0.9690	1.0696	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	694728
playerID	694728
playerName	Brice Matthews
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 46

All-history rows before 20260517: 46

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2679

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.652	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.652	3.000	0.348	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.333	0.232	0.167
predicted_BB	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.978	1.000	1.022	1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.239	1.000	1.761	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.333	0.160	0.167
predicted_R	0.587	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.587	1.000	0.413	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	5.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.652	1.000	4.348	4.000
predicted_SLG	0.479	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.524	1.333	1.476	0.667
predicted_SO	0.804	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.804	1.000	0.196	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.652	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.370	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.587	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.479	-
predicted_SO	0.804	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.639	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.363	-0.007
predicted_H	0.783	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.243	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000
predicted_R	0.570	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.541	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.479	0.000
predicted_SO	0.829	0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.639	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.360	-0.002
predicted_H	0.765	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.237	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.013
predicted_R	0.547	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.520	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.462	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.834	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	5.000	4.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.5882	0.1765	0.1177	0.1765	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.1111	0.1795	0.3056	0.1111	0.0556	0.0833	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.60	46	-	168.000	45.000	10.000	11.000	30.000	27.000	17.000	37.000	0.2679	0.3404	0.5238	0.2679	0.0655	0.1786	0.1012	0.2202

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6200
predicted_AVG	0.2218
predicted_BB	0.3520
predicted_H	0.8030
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.2470
predicted_OBP	0.2945
predicted_R	0.5450
predicted_RBI	0.5580
predicted_SLG	0.4795
predicted_SO	0.8640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2170	0.1890	0.2055	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6520	3.6200	3.6389	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2218	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3700	0.3520	0.3626	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8030	0.7835	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2470	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2945	0.2942	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5870	0.5450	0.5698	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5580	0.5415	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4790	0.4795	0.4792	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8040	0.8640	0.8286	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	5
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Peter Lambert (663567) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 5

All-history rows before 20260517: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.400	1.000	-1.400	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.800	3.000	-1.800	-3.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.200	6.000	-1.200	-3.000
predicted_IP	6.200	6.200	6.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.820	7.000	0.380	-0.800
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	5.800	6.000	1.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 7.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.100	9.000	21.000	12.000	29.000	1.000	2.7614	1.1250	0.3068	0.7159	0.4091	0.9886	0.0341
last_10	0.35	5	29.100	9.000	21.000	12.000	29.000	1.000	2.7614	1.1250	0.3068	0.7159	0.4091	0.9886	0.0341
season	0.20	5	29.100	9.000	21.000	12.000	29.000	1.000	2.7614	1.1250	0.3068	0.7159	0.4091	0.9886	0.0341

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.5600
predicted_ER	2.5120
predicted_ERA	3.4784
predicted_H	5.3750
predicted_HR	0.5330
predicted_IP	6.2000
predicted_SO	6.3150
predicted_WHIP	1.2209

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.5600	1.6845	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.5120	1.1021	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4784	3.4784	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.3750	4.0420	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5330	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	7.0000	6.2000	7.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	6.3150	6.1382	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2209	1.2209	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.2
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	7
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.76
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	663567
playerID	663567
playerName	Peter Lambert
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 17

All-history rows before 20260517: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.059	0.000	-0.059	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.012	0.200	0.088	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	0.059	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	2.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	2.8421	1.4211	0.3158	0.7895	0.6316	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	6.000	11.000	6.000	5.000	4.5000	1.4167	0.5000	0.9167	0.5000	0.4167
season	0.20	17	20.000	7.000	18.000	9.000	16.000	3.1500	1.3500	0.3500	0.9000	0.4500	0.8000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6060
predicted_ER	0.5750
predicted_ERA	3.8805
predicted_H	1.2020
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0160
predicted_WHIP	1.3559

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6060	0.2512	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5750	0.2383	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8805	3.8805	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2020	1.0837	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0970	0.0402	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0160	1.0066	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3559	1.3559	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 17

All-history rows before 20260517: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.059	3.000	-0.059	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.929	0.100	-0.729	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	0.059	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	1.9286	0.8571	0.2143	0.8571	0.0000	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	8.000	13.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	7.2000	1.6000	0.8000	1.3000	0.3000	0.9000	0.0000
season	0.20	17	17.200	9.000	18.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	4.5849	1.2453	0.5094	1.0189	0.2264	0.9057	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_ER	0.3790
predicted_ERA	4.2405
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7750
predicted_WHIP	1.2665

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2290	0.0920	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3790	0.1522	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2405	4.2405	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7900	0.9157	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0650	0.0261	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7750	0.9096	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2665	1.2665	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.58
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan Abreu (650556) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 16

All-history rows before 20260517: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	1.100	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.312	0.000	-0.312	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0588	0.0000	0.5294	0.5294	0.8823	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	4.000	8.000	8.000	12.000	1.000	3.2727	1.4545	0.3636	0.7273	0.7273	1.0909	0.0909
season	0.20	16	15.000	13.000	14.000	18.000	21.000	4.000	7.8000	2.1333	0.8667	0.9333	1.2000	1.4000	0.2667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_ER	0.2350
predicted_ERA	3.6393
predicted_H	0.4900
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5780
predicted_WHIP	1.3524

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2970	0.7292	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2350	0.0905	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6393	3.6393	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4900	0.1887	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0660	0.0254	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.5780	1.4523	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3524	1.3524	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.80
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	650556
playerID	650556
playerName	Bryan Abreu
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

20260517_TOR@DET

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.546651, "home_win_probability": 0.453349, "away_win_probability": 0.546651, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 4 - 3 DET", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 4 - 3 DET", "confidence": 0.546651, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 3 DET", "winner": "TOR"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 3 DET", "winner": "TOR"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	0.547	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away TOR	4-6	0.400	4	3.60	4	1W	average	average
Home DET	2-8	0.200	2.50	5.20	-27	1L	cold	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away TOR	20-25	0.444	-14	-0.311	True
Home DET	20-26	0.435	-10	-0.217	True
Signal	-	-	0.094	0.079	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-16	TOR @ DET	2 - 1	TOR	1	close
2026-05-15	TOR @ DET	2 - 3	DET	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target TOR	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target DET	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized TOR	33	8	2	0	2	2	7
Player finalized DET	33	9	2	0	3	2	10
Player model fractional TOR	31.14	7.19	3.50	0.86	3.72	2.72	6.58
Player model fractional DET	32.81	7.33	3.41	0.76	3.16	3.20	8.47
Simulation box TOR	36	9	4	0	4	1	9
Simulation box DET	34	7	3	2	3	2	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away TOR	Starter	Kevin Gausman	5.20	1	6	5	1	4.42	1.24	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Jeff Hoffman	1	1	0	1	0	4.79	1.55	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Louis Varland	1	1	1	1	0	2.34	1.43	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Tyler Rogers	1.10	0	1	0	1	4.31	1.57	True
Home DET	Starter	Jack Flaherty	4	3	4	4	0	5.94	1.73	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Burch Smith	1.10	0	2	2	0	4.16	1.39	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Brant Hurter	1	0	2	0	0	3.13	1.20	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Kenley Jansen	1.20	0	0	1	0	3.17	1.08	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Kyle Finnegan	1	1	1	2	1	2.89	1.35	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: TOR

Daulton Varsho (662139) · BATTER · CF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 39

All-history rows before 20260517: 39

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2466

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.744	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.744	3.000	0.256	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.667	0.003	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.359	1.000	-0.359	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	2.000	0.077	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.750	-0.071	-0.500
predicted_R	0.487	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.487	0.000	0.513	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.359	1.000	-0.359	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.397	1.000	-0.147	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	0.000	0.231	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.744	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.359	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.487	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.735	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.360	0.001
predicted_H	0.888	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.468	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.499	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.402	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.814	0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.360	0.001
predicted_H	0.892	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.132	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.012
predicted_R	0.473	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.504	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.812	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.2778	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	0.2703	0.3415	0.3784	0.2703	0.0270	0.1351	0.1081	0.2973
season	0.60	39	-	146.000	36.000	7.000	5.000	14.000	19.000	14.000	30.000	0.2466	0.3210	0.3973	0.2466	0.0343	0.0959	0.0959	0.2055

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7210
predicted_AVG	0.2461
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_H	0.9150
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.3184
predicted_R	0.4400
predicted_RBI	0.5120
predicted_SLG	0.4017
predicted_SO	0.8790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1700	0.1754	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7440	3.7210	3.7347	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2461	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3590	0.3610	0.3598	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9150	0.8882	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1350	0.1320	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3184	0.3182	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4870	0.4400	0.4680	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5120	0.4989	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4017	0.4019	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.8790	0.8135	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	662139
playerID	662139
playerName	Daulton Varsho
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Davis Schneider (676914) · BATTER · 2B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 17

All-history rows before 20260517: 17

System season_avg: 0.1140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1136

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.588	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.588	1.000	0.412	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.148	0.333	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.114	0.000	0.220	0.333
predicted_BB	0.706	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.706	1.000	0.294	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.500	0.196	0.000
predicted_R	0.294	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.238	0.333	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.159	0.000	0.174	0.333
predicted_SO	1.176	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.176	1.000	-1.176	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.588	-
predicted_AVG	0.148	-
predicted_BB	0.706	-
predicted_H	0.330	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.294	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.238	-
predicted_SO	1.176	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.691	0.103
predicted_AVG	0.148	0.000
predicted_BB	0.706	0.000
predicted_H	0.364	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.306	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.308	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.238	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.173	-0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.691	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.136	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.707	0.001
predicted_H	0.366	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.309	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.312	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.212	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.171	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.136 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	0.1000	0.4000	0.2000	0.1000	0.2000	0.5000	0.6000
last_10	0.20	10	-	22.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	12.000	0.0455	0.3000	0.0909	0.0454	0.0909	0.3636	0.5454
season	0.60	17	-	44.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	20.000	0.1136	0.3036	0.1591	0.1136	0.1136	0.2727	0.4546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	2.8830
predicted_AVG	0.1484
predicted_BB	0.7060
predicted_H	0.4280
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.3162
predicted_R	0.3290
predicted_RBI	0.3620
predicted_SLG	0.2378
predicted_SO	1.1680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1540	0.1305	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5880	2.8830	2.6907	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1480	0.1484	0.1481	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7060	0.7060	0.7060	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3300	0.4280	0.3641	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0320	0.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3162	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2940	0.3290	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3620	0.3085	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2380	0.2378	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1760	1.1680	1.1732	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.114

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	676914
playerID	676914
playerName	Davis Schneider
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Brandon Valenzuela (678218) · BATTER · C · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 20

All-history rows before 20260517: 20

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2459

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.050	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.050	2.000	0.950	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.500	-0.246	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.667	-0.333	-0.667
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.497	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.459	0.500	-0.459	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.050	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.367	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.497	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.112	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.275	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.431	0.031
predicted_H	0.760	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.167	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.000
predicted_R	0.536	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.508	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.497	0.000
predicted_SO	0.946	-0.054

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.112	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.432	0.001
predicted_H	0.764	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.167	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	-0.030
predicted_R	0.541	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.513	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.431	-0.066
predicted_SO	0.944	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.3571	0.5000	0.6429	0.3571	0.0714	0.2857	0.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	7.000	6.000	0.3448	0.4722	0.6897	0.3448	0.1035	0.2759	0.2414	0.2069
season	0.60	20	-	61.000	15.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	10.000	8.000	20.000	0.2459	0.3333	0.4590	0.2459	0.0656	0.1639	0.1311	0.3279

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1160
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2210
predicted_AVG	0.2746
predicted_BB	0.4860
predicted_H	0.8850
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1980
predicted_OBP	0.3674
predicted_R	0.5990
predicted_RBI	0.5940
predicted_SLG	0.4974
predicted_SO	0.8500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0500	0.1160	0.0739	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0500	3.2210	3.1118	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2746	0.2749	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4860	0.4311	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8850	0.7605	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1980	0.1673	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3670	0.3674	0.3671	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5990	0.5358	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5940	0.5084	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4970	0.4974	0.4971	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8500	0.9458	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	678218
playerID	678218
playerName	Brandon Valenzuela
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TOR
teamID	29

Andrés Giménez (665926) · BATTER · SS · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 39

All-history rows before 20260517: 39

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2535

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.641	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.641	3.000	0.359	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	-0.004	0.250
predicted_BB	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	0.000	0.077	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.000	-0.030	0.250
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.641	0.000	-0.641	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.000	-0.173	0.250
predicted_SO	0.615	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.615	0.000	1.385	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.641	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.103	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.285	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.710	-
predicted_SLG	0.465	-
predicted_SO	0.615	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.022	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.606	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.099	-0.004
predicted_H	0.821	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.102	-
predicted_HR	0.178	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000
predicted_R	0.326	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.747	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.000
predicted_SO	0.643	0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.606	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.825	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.102	0.000
predicted_HR	0.178	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.036
predicted_R	0.329	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.754	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.437	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.642	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.6875	0.2500	0.1250	0.4375	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.2353	0.2703	0.4412	0.2353	0.0588	0.2647	0.0000	0.1765
season	0.60	39	-	142.000	36.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	25.000	12.000	4.000	24.000	0.2535	0.2800	0.4225	0.2535	0.0352	0.1761	0.0282	0.1690

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.5540
predicted_AVG	0.2483
predicted_BB	0.0940
predicted_H	0.8820
predicted_HBP	0.1020
predicted_HR	0.1900
predicted_OBP	0.2849
predicted_R	0.3530
predicted_RBI	0.8020
predicted_SLG	0.4652
predicted_SO	0.6860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1700	0.1754	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0150	0.0216	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6410	3.5540	3.6061	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2483	0.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1030	0.0940	0.0994	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8820	0.8209	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1020	0.1020	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1900	0.1780	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2850	0.2849	0.2850	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.3530	0.3261	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7100	0.8020	0.7469	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4650	0.4652	0.4651	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6150	0.6860	0.6435	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	665926
playerID	665926
playerName	Andrés Giménez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TOR
teamID	29

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (665489) · BATTER · DH · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 44

All-history rows before 20260517: 44

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2822

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.159	0.000	-0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.705	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.705	4.000	0.295	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.045	0.000	-1.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.000	-0.372	0.000
predicted_R	0.568	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.568	1.000	-0.568	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.270	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.000	-0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.705	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.568	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.270	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.703	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.495	-0.005
predicted_H	0.752	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.540	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.417	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.270	0.000
predicted_SO	0.527	0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.703	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.496	0.001
predicted_H	0.755	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.004
predicted_R	0.545	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.421	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.004
predicted_SO	0.525	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, weight=0.139, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.0556	0.1818	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.1081	0.2093	0.1081	0.1081	0.0000	0.1081	0.1351	0.1351
season	0.60	44	-	163.000	46.000	7.000	2.000	19.000	25.000	22.000	22.000	0.2822	0.3723	0.3620	0.2822	0.0123	0.1166	0.1350	0.1350

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6990
predicted_AVG	0.2078
predicted_BB	0.4890
predicted_H	0.7690
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.3021
predicted_R	0.4990
predicted_RBI	0.4260
predicted_SLG	0.2699
predicted_SO	0.5650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1590	0.1060	0.1373	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7050	3.6990	3.7025	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2078	0.2079	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4890	0.4955	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7690	0.7519	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3021	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5680	0.4990	0.5397	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4260	0.4166	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2700	0.2699	0.2700	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5650	0.5266	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	665489
playerID	665489
playerName	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jesús Sánchez (660821) · BATTER · RF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 33

All-history rows before 20260517: 33

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2650

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.545	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.545	3.000	0.455	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.000	-0.015	0.250
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.939	0.000	0.061	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.000	-0.055	0.250
predicted_R	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.485	0.000	-0.485	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.427	0.000	-0.177	0.250
predicted_SO	0.788	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.788	2.000	-0.788	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.394	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.393	-
predicted_SO	0.788	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.501	-0.044
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.186	0.004
predicted_H	0.912	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.050	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.387	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.334	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.393	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.828	0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.501	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.187	0.000
predicted_H	0.916	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.050	0.000
predicted_HR	0.103	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.017
predicted_R	0.391	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.338	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.827	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.3077	0.3571	0.3077	0.3077	0.0000	0.0000	0.0769	0.3846
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	10.000	0.2857	0.3243	0.3714	0.2857	0.0286	0.0571	0.0286	0.2857
season	0.60	33	-	117.000	31.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	13.000	6.000	26.000	0.2650	0.3047	0.4274	0.2650	0.0427	0.1368	0.0513	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4330
predicted_AVG	0.2713
predicted_BB	0.1930
predicted_H	0.9310
predicted_HBP	0.0500
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_OBP	0.3164
predicted_R	0.3760
predicted_RBI	0.3410
predicted_SLG	0.3928
predicted_SO	0.8900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.0880	0.1080	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5450	3.4330	3.5008	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2713	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.1930	0.1863	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9310	0.9122	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0500	0.0500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1080	0.1032	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3164	0.3162	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3940	0.3760	0.3869	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3410	0.3343	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3930	0.3928	0.3929	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7880	0.8900	0.8282	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	660821
playerID	660821
playerName	Jesús Sánchez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Yohendrick Pinango (682818) · BATTER · LF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 12

All-history rows before 20260517: 12

System season_avg: 0.3590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3590

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	1.917	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	4.000	1.750	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.600	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.359	0.500	0.241	0.100
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	2.000	1.833	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	1.000	-0.083	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.600	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.405	0.500	0.195	0.100
predicted_R	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	1.000	0.833	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	4.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	1.000	3.583	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.425	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.462	1.250	0.538	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.417	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.417	1.000	0.583	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.293	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.425	-
predicted_SO	0.417	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.010
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.348	0.098
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.000
predicted_BB	0.262	0.012
predicted_H	0.973	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.211	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.384	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.425	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.484	0.067

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.348	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.263	0.001
predicted_H	0.977	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.104	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	-0.007
predicted_R	0.213	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.388	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.414	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.483	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.292 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	4.000	4.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.3429	0.3947	0.4571	0.3429	0.0286	0.1143	0.0857	0.1429
season	0.60	12	-	39.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.3590	0.4048	0.4615	0.3590	0.0256	0.1282	0.0769	0.1282

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5490
predicted_AVG	0.2932
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_H	1.0400
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_OBP	0.3499
predicted_R	0.3010
predicted_RBI	0.4130
predicted_SLG	0.4248
predicted_SO	0.6200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.1140	0.0932	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.5490	3.3481	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2930	0.2932	0.2931	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2870	0.2621	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0400	0.9728	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1140	0.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3499	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.3010	0.2110	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4130	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4250	0.4248	0.4249	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4170	0.6200	0.4836	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.359

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	682818
playerID	682818
playerName	Yohendrick Pinango
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Ernie Clement (676391) · BATTER · 3B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2907

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.302	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.302	0.000	-0.302	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.000	-0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.140	1.000	-0.140	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.163	0.000	-1.163	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.333	-0.313	-0.333
predicted_R	0.372	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.372	1.000	-0.372	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.401	0.000	-0.401	0.000
predicted_SO	0.326	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.326	0.000	1.674	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.302	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.140	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.372	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.326	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.251	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.946	-0.054
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.150	0.010
predicted_H	0.998	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.390	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.248	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	0.384	0.057

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.251	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.946	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.150	0.000
predicted_H	1.002	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.053	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.020
predicted_R	0.394	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.251	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.383	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.2895	0.3000	0.3684	0.2895	0.0263	0.0790	0.0263	0.1053
season	0.60	43	-	172.000	50.000	13.000	2.000	12.000	16.000	6.000	14.000	0.2907	0.3128	0.4012	0.2907	0.0116	0.0698	0.0349	0.0814

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8680
predicted_AVG	0.2721
predicted_BB	0.1650
predicted_H	1.0520
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.3010
predicted_R	0.4170
predicted_RBI	0.2600
predicted_SLG	0.3640
predicted_SO	0.4670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3020	0.1770	0.2510	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8680	3.9461	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2721	0.2720	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1400	0.1650	0.1502	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0520	0.9975	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0580	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3010	0.3010	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3720	0.4170	0.3904	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2600	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3640	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3260	0.4670	0.3835	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	676391
playerID	676391
playerName	Ernie Clement
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Lenyn Sosa (672820) · BATTER · 1B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 16

All-history rows before 20260517: 16

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0140

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	1.000	-0.188	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	4.000	0.562	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.250	0.300	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.688	1.000	1.312	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.224	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.196	0.250	0.304	0.250
predicted_R	0.292	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.312	0.000	0.688	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.309	0.500	0.191	0.000
predicted_SO	0.792	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	0.000	0.188	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.224	-
predicted_R	0.292	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.326	-
predicted_SO	0.792	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.502	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.000
predicted_BB	0.025	0.025
predicted_H	0.686	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.224	0.000
predicted_R	0.298	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.239	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.793	0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.502	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.689	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.061	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.203	-0.021
predicted_R	0.301	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.241	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.318	-0.008
predicted_SO	0.791	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.1333	0.1333	0.2000	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3429	0.2000	0.0286	0.0571	0.2571
season	0.60	24	-	84.000	18.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	19.000	0.2143	0.2143	0.3214	0.2143	0.0119	0.0714	0.2262

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2190
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5040
predicted_AVG	0.2079
predicted_BB	0.0680
predicted_H	0.7290
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.2239
predicted_R	0.3070
predicted_RBI	0.2540
predicted_SLG	0.3258
predicted_SO	0.7940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2190	0.2384	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5040	3.5015	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2079	0.2080	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0680	0.0254	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7290	0.6858	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0611	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2240	0.2239	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2920	0.3070	0.2976	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2540	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3260	0.3258	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7920	0.7940	0.7927	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	672820
playerID	672820
playerName	Lenyn Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kevin Gausman (592332) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 9

All-history rows before 20260517: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.444	6.000	-1.444	-5.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.222	10.000	-0.222	-5.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.522	4.200	-0.322	1.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.333	5.000	0.667	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	16.000	33.000	4.000	17.000	4.000	4.9655	1.2759	0.5517	1.1379	0.1379	0.5862	0.1379
last_10	0.35	9	51.100	22.000	47.000	9.000	48.000	6.000	3.8571	1.0909	0.4286	0.9156	0.1753	0.9351	0.1169
season	0.20	9	51.100	22.000	47.000	9.000	48.000	6.000	3.8571	1.0909	0.4286	0.9156	0.1753	0.9351	0.1169

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3210
predicted_ER	2.7810
predicted_ERA	4.4172
predicted_H	5.7330
predicted_HR	0.7360
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.5540
predicted_WHIP	1.2449

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.3210	1.1602	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.7810	1.8889	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4172	4.4172	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.7330	5.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7360	0.8682	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	4.5540	5.2783	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2449	1.2449	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	5
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	6
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	1
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	10
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	100
Pitching_R	7
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	71
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	592332
playerID	592332
playerName	Kevin Gausman
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jeff Hoffman (656546) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.619	1.000	0.381	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.333	2.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.843	0.200	0.157	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.619	2.000	-1.619	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.7143	0.2143	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	14.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	5.0000	1.7778	0.5556	1.5556	0.2222	1.2222	0.1111
season	0.20	21	19.100	13.000	28.000	8.000	34.000	3.000	6.0517	1.8621	0.6724	1.4483	0.4138	1.7586	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3260
predicted_ER	0.5320
predicted_ERA	4.7896
predicted_H	1.2280
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1300
predicted_WHIP	1.5537

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3260	0.1340	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5320	0.8077	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7896	4.7896	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2280	1.0937	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1460	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1300	0.4644	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5537	1.5537	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.05
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656546
playerID	656546
playerName	Jeff Hoffman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Louis Varland (686973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 22

All-history rows before 20260517: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.045	0.000	0.955	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.864	2.000	0.136	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.959	2.000	0.041	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.545	2.000	-0.545	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	0.0000	1.6667	0.0000	1.0000	0.6667	0.8333
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	11.000	6.000	15.000	0.8438	1.5938	0.0938	1.0312	0.5625	1.4062
season	0.20	22	23.200	1.000	19.000	9.000	34.000	0.3803	1.1831	0.0423	0.8028	0.3803	1.4366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5070
predicted_ER	0.2790
predicted_ERA	2.3430
predicted_H	1.0240
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1280
predicted_WHIP	1.4270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5070	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2790	0.6884	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3430	2.3430	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0240	1.0104	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0720	0.5990	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1280	1.0553	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4270	1.4270	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	686973
playerID	686973
playerName	Louis Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Rogers (643511) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.810	1.000	-0.810	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.890	1.000	0.210	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.619	1.000	0.381	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	3.000	6.7500	2.7500	0.7500	2.2500	0.5000	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	3.0000	1.2222	0.3333	1.0000	0.2222	0.8889
season	0.20	21	20.100	4.000	17.000	6.000	13.000	1.7705	1.1311	0.1967	0.8361	0.2951	0.6393

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_ER	0.4460
predicted_ERA	4.3054
predicted_H	1.1220
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8160
predicted_WHIP	1.5735

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3460	0.7278	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4460	0.1856	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3054	4.3054	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1220	0.4670	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0670	0.0279	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8160	0.9234	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5735	1.5735	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.77
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	643511
playerID	643511
playerName	Tyler Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Home Team: DET

Gage Workman (669398) · BATTER · 3B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 3

All-history rows before 20260517: 3

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.473	1.000	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_SO	1.667	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.667	3.000	-1.667	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.667	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.473	-
predicted_SO	1.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.582	-0.085
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.965	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.049	0.049
predicted_H	0.873	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.165	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.566	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.473	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.525	-0.142

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.582	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.965	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.049	-0.000
predicted_H	0.854	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.162	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.225	-0.064
predicted_R	0.347	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.545	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.013
predicted_SO	1.534	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	12.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.6667	0.2500	0.0833	0.2500	0.4167
last_10	0.20	3	-	12.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.6667	0.2500	0.0833	0.2500	0.4167
season	0.60	3	-	12.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.6667	0.2500	0.0833	0.2500	0.4167

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3140
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.8560
predicted_AVG	0.2457
predicted_BB	0.2050
predicted_H	0.9470
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_OBP	0.2894
predicted_R	0.4470
predicted_RBI	0.6170
predicted_SLG	0.4726
predicted_SO	1.0780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.6670	0.3140	0.5819	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8560	3.9653	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2457	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2050	0.0494	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9470	0.8734	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1800	0.1648	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2894	0.2891	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4470	0.3605	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6170	0.5662	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4730	0.4726	0.4729	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.6670	1.0780	1.5250	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	669398
playerID	669398
playerName	Gage Workman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	DET
teamID	10

Wenceel Pérez (672761) · BATTER · RF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 23

All-history rows before 20260517: 23

System season_avg: 0.1450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1446

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.609	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.609	3.000	-0.609	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.145	0.000	-0.145	0.000
predicted_BB	0.217	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.217	0.000	0.783	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.522	0.000	-0.522	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.193	0.000	0.057	0.250
predicted_R	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.234	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.169	0.000	-0.169	0.000
predicted_SO	0.522	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.522	0.000	0.478	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.609	-
predicted_AVG	0.180	-
predicted_BB	0.217	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.230	-
predicted_R	0.261	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.234	-
predicted_SO	0.522	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.660	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.000
predicted_BB	0.222	0.005
predicted_H	0.604	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.230	-0.000
predicted_R	0.297	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.259	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.234	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.568	0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.660	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.220	-0.001
predicted_H	0.590	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.209	-0.021
predicted_R	0.286	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.250	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.211	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.571	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.161 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.1500	0.1500	0.0500	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2368	0.2105	0.0790	0.0526	0.1842
season	0.60	23	-	83.000	12.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	12.000	0.1446	0.1932	0.1687	0.1446	0.0602	0.0602	0.1446

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1000
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7440
predicted_AVG	0.1805
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	0.6760
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.2297
predicted_R	0.3580
predicted_RBI	0.2910
predicted_SLG	0.2336
predicted_SO	0.6430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0870	0.1000	0.0919	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6090	3.7440	3.6597	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1800	0.1805	0.1802	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2170	0.2290	0.2215	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6760	0.6036	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2300	0.2297	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2610	0.3580	0.2974	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2910	0.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2340	0.2336	0.2338	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5220	0.6430	0.5675	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.145

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	672761
playerID	672761
playerName	Wenceel Pérez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	DET
teamID	10

Riley Greene (682985) · BATTER · LF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 45

All-history rows before 20260517: 45

System season_avg: 0.3290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3293

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.311	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.311	0.000	-0.311	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.644	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.644	4.000	-0.644	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.352	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.329	0.250	0.004	0.083
predicted_BB	0.578	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.578	0.000	0.422	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	1.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.200	1.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.424	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.421	0.250	0.079	0.250
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.511	0.000	-0.511	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.487	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.488	0.250	-0.154	0.083
predicted_SO	1.156	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.156	2.000	-0.156	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.311	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.644	-
predicted_AVG	0.352	-
predicted_BB	0.578	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.424	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.487	-
predicted_SO	1.156	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.682	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.352	0.000
predicted_BB	0.531	-0.047
predicted_H	1.242	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.424	0.000
predicted_R	0.546	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.471	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.487	0.000
predicted_SO	1.126	-0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.682	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.330	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.528	-0.003
predicted_H	1.214	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.414	-0.010
predicted_R	0.526	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.453	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.464	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.133	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.330 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.231)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.4000	0.4286	0.4500	0.4000	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	17.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	0.4595	0.5238	0.5946	0.4595	0.0000	0.1081	0.1351	0.2973
season	0.60	45	-	164.000	54.000	14.000	4.000	23.000	27.000	26.000	52.000	0.3293	0.4211	0.4878	0.3293	0.0244	0.1402	0.1585	0.3171

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3090
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7360
predicted_AVG	0.3524
predicted_BB	0.4640
predicted_H	1.3160
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.4243
predicted_R	0.4690
predicted_RBI	0.5010
predicted_SLG	0.4870
predicted_SO	1.0820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3110	0.3090	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6440	3.7360	3.6817	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3520	0.3524	0.3522	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5780	0.4640	0.5312	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.3160	1.2417	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0616	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4240	0.4243	0.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.4690	0.5463	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5010	0.4709	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4870	0.4870	0.4870	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1560	1.0820	1.1257	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.329

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	682985
playerID	682985
playerName	Riley Greene
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	DET
teamID	10

Zach McKinstry (656716) · BATTER · 2B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

System season_avg: 0.1740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1739

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	4.000	0.714	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.174	0.250	0.076	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.095	1.000	-0.095	-1.000
predicted_H	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.246	0.250	0.004	0.000
predicted_SO	0.762	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.762	0.000	1.238	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.095	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.271	-
predicted_SO	0.762	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	0.003
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.336	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000
predicted_BB	0.326	-0.007
predicted_H	0.583	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.000
predicted_R	0.127	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.204	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.760	-0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.336	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.324	-0.002
predicted_H	0.570	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.043	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.244	-0.019
predicted_R	0.123	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.196	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.240	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.764	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.182)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	0.1613	0.2571	0.1935	0.1613	0.0000	0.0000	0.1290	0.2258
season	0.60	21	-	69.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	16.000	0.1739	0.2500	0.2464	0.1739	0.0145	0.0725	0.1014	0.2319

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1040
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4210
predicted_AVG	0.1923
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_H	0.6580
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.2626
predicted_R	0.1830
predicted_RBI	0.2270
predicted_SLG	0.2708
predicted_SO	0.7560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.1040	0.0983	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.4210	3.3356	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1923	0.1921	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3130	0.3257	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6580	0.5833	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0520	0.0444	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2626	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0950	0.1830	0.1273	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2270	0.2036	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2710	0.2708	0.2709	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7620	0.7560	0.7598	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.174

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-RF
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656716
playerID	656716
playerName	Zach McKinstry
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Colt Keith (690993) · BATTER · DH · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 31

All-history rows before 20260517: 31

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2870

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.484	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.484	3.000	0.516	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.333	-0.287	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.333	-0.330	-0.333
predicted_R	0.452	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.333	-0.361	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.935	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.935	1.000	1.065	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.484	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	0.935	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.474	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.208	0.014
predicted_H	0.928	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.435	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.144	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.979	0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.474	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.207	-0.001
predicted_H	0.907	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.021	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.026
predicted_R	0.419	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.139	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.348	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.985	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.3438	0.3125	0.0000	0.0938	0.3125
season	0.60	31	-	108.000	31.000	8.000	4.000	14.000	6.000	29.000	0.2870	0.3304	0.3611	0.2870	0.0370	0.0556	0.2685

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2070
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4590
predicted_AVG	0.2763
predicted_BB	0.2300
predicted_H	0.9560
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.3287
predicted_R	0.4090
predicted_RBI	0.1500
predicted_SLG	0.3576
predicted_SO	1.0490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2580	0.2070	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4840	3.4590	3.4743	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2763	0.2761	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.2300	0.2080	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9560	0.9279	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0212	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3287	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.4090	0.4353	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1500	0.1439	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3576	0.3578	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9350	1.0490	0.9794	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	690993
playerID	690993
playerName	Colt Keith
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	DET
teamID	10

Kevin McGonigle (805808) · BATTER · SS · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2927

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.279	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_3B	0.047	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_AB	3.814	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.814	5.000	0.186	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.400	0.207	0.100
predicted_BB	0.628	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.628	0.000	-0.628	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.116	2.000	0.884	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.399	0.400	0.101	0.100
predicted_R	0.651	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.651	0.000	0.349	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.372	0.000	-0.372	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.427	0.400	0.073	0.100
predicted_SO	0.581	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.581	1.000	-0.581	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	-
predicted_3B	0.047	-
predicted_AB	3.814	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.628	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.382	-
predicted_R	0.651	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	-
predicted_SO	0.581	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.038	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.776	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.635	0.007
predicted_H	0.998	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.000
predicted_R	0.605	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000
predicted_SO	0.614	0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.776	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.632	-0.004
predicted_H	0.976	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.365	-0.017
predicted_R	0.583	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.241	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.377	0.005
predicted_SO	0.618	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.814

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.3333	0.2778	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	6.000	0.2000	0.3636	0.2286	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2286	0.1714
season	0.60	43	-	164.000	48.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	28.000	27.000	25.000	0.2927	0.3990	0.4268	0.2927	0.0122	0.0976	0.1646	0.1524

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2190
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.7210
predicted_AVG	0.2675
predicted_BB	0.6460
predicted_H	0.9950
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.3820
predicted_R	0.5400
predicted_RBI	0.2510
predicted_SLG	0.3720
predicted_SO	0.6610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2790	0.2190	0.2544	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0470	0.0250	0.0380	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8140	3.7210	3.7758	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2675	0.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6280	0.6460	0.6354	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9950	0.9979	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3820	0.3820	0.3820	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6510	0.5400	0.6054	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2510	0.2504	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3720	0.3720	0.3720	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5810	0.6610	0.6139	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	805808
playerID	805808
playerName	Kevin McGonigle
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	DET
teamID	10

Dillon Dingler (693307) · BATTER · C · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 36

All-history rows before 20260517: 36

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2464

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	4.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.000	-0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	1.000	-0.306	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.944	0.000	-0.944	0.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.200	-0.320	-0.200
predicted_R	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.488	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.478	0.000	-0.478	0.000
predicted_SO	0.806	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.806	2.000	0.194	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.488	-
predicted_SO	0.806	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.833	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.331	0.025
predicted_H	0.936	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.061	-
predicted_HR	0.225	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.000
predicted_R	0.497	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.552	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.488	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.842	0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.329	-0.002
predicted_H	0.916	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.061	0.000
predicted_HR	0.220	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.027
predicted_R	0.479	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.532	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.468	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.847	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.6842	0.3158	0.1053	0.1053	0.1579	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	0.2051	0.2791	0.4103	0.2051	0.0513	0.0769	0.1026	0.2821
season	0.60	36	-	138.000	34.000	8.000	8.000	27.000	17.000	11.000	29.000	0.2464	0.3203	0.4783	0.2464	0.0580	0.1956	0.0797	0.2101

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2080
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8330
predicted_AVG	0.2507
predicted_BB	0.3670
predicted_H	0.9610
predicted_HBP	0.0610
predicted_HR	0.2320
predicted_OBP	0.3258
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.5710
predicted_SLG	0.4877
predicted_SO	0.8950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2080	0.2164	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.8330	3.8330	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2507	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.3670	0.3305	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9610	0.9365	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0610	0.0610	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2320	0.2248	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3258	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.5350	0.4973	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5710	0.5525	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4880	0.4877	0.4879	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8060	0.8950	0.8418	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	693307
playerID	693307
playerName	Dillon Dingler
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	DET
teamID	10

Matt Vierling (663837) · BATTER · CF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 28

All-history rows before 20260517: 28

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2178

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.321	0.000	-0.321	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.607	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.607	4.000	0.393	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.500	0.032	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	1.000	-0.036	-1.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	2.000	0.214	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	1.000	-0.071	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.500	-0.036	-0.250
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.536	1.000	-0.536	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.366	1.250	-0.116	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.643	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.643	0.000	0.357	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.321	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.607	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.386	-
predicted_SO	0.643	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.659	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.374	0.017
predicted_H	0.759	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.114	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.373	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.486	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000
predicted_SO	0.661	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.659	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.371	-0.002
predicted_H	0.742	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.112	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.019
predicted_R	0.359	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.468	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.376	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.665	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.154)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.1500	0.1500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.2105	0.3023	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.1316	0.1316	0.1316
season	0.60	28	-	101.000	22.000	9.000	2.000	15.000	10.000	10.000	18.000	0.2178	0.2857	0.3663	0.2178	0.0198	0.1485	0.0990	0.1782

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2560
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7400
predicted_AVG	0.2194
predicted_BB	0.4000
predicted_H	0.8200
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.2954
predicted_R	0.3980
predicted_RBI	0.5270
predicted_SLG	0.3863
predicted_SO	0.6890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3210	0.2560	0.2958	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6070	3.7400	3.6586	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2194	0.2192	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.4000	0.3737	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8200	0.7588	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1210	0.1143	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2954	0.2952	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3980	0.3729	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5270	0.4860	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3860	0.3863	0.3861	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6430	0.6890	0.6609	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663837
playerID	663837
playerName	Matt Vierling
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	DET
teamID	10

Spencer Torkelson (679529) · BATTER · 1B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 43

All-history rows before 20260517: 43

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2041

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.419	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.419	4.000	0.581	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.250	0.046	0.000
predicted_BB	0.581	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.581	0.000	-0.581	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.698	1.000	0.302	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.140	0.000	0.860	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.250	-0.072	0.000
predicted_R	0.326	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.326	0.000	0.674	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.395	0.000	0.605	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.309	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.381	0.250	0.619	0.750
predicted_SO	1.326	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.326	3.000	-1.326	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.419	-
predicted_AVG	0.187	-
predicted_BB	0.581	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.326	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.309	-
predicted_SO	1.326	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.425	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.187	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.546	-0.035
predicted_H	0.575	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.070	-
predicted_HR	0.077	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.295	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.349	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.000
predicted_SO	1.348	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.425	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.543	-0.003
predicted_H	0.562	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.070	0.000
predicted_HR	0.076	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.019
predicted_R	0.284	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.336	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.282	-0.028
predicted_SO	1.357	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.083)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	0.1250	0.2500	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	17.000	0.1471	0.2683	0.2059	0.1471	0.0000	0.0882	0.1471	0.5000
season	0.60	43	-	147.000	30.000	8.000	6.000	17.000	14.000	25.000	57.000	0.2041	0.3218	0.3810	0.2041	0.0408	0.1157	0.1701	0.3878

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4340
predicted_AVG	0.1867
predicted_BB	0.4960
predicted_H	0.6410
predicted_HBP	0.0700
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_OBP	0.2980
predicted_R	0.2500
predicted_RBI	0.3910
predicted_SLG	0.3095
predicted_SO	1.3810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.1540	0.1730	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4190	3.4340	3.4251	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1870	0.1867	0.1869	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5810	0.4960	0.5464	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6410	0.5752	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0700	0.0700	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0880	0.0773	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2980	0.2980	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3260	0.2500	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3910	0.3489	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3090	0.3095	0.3092	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3260	1.3810	1.3484	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	679529
playerID	679529
playerName	Spencer Torkelson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	DET
teamID	10

Jack Flaherty (656427) · PITCHER · Starter · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 9

All-history rows before 20260517: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	3.222	3.000	-3.222	-3.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.667	3.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.000	6.000	0.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.978	3.200	0.022	0.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	4.889	2.000	-0.889	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	17.200	15.000	22.000	15.000	23.000	4.000	7.6415	2.0943	0.8491	1.2453	0.8491	1.3019	0.2264
last_10	0.35	9	37.200	24.000	36.000	29.000	44.000	5.000	5.7345	1.7257	0.6372	0.9557	0.7699	1.1681	0.1327
season	0.20	9	37.200	24.000	36.000	29.000	44.000	5.000	5.7345	1.7257	0.6372	0.9557	0.7699	1.1681	0.1327

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.6130
predicted_ER	2.6070
predicted_ERA	5.9406
predicted_H	4.2040
predicted_HR	0.6670
predicted_IP	4.0000
predicted_SO	4.5220
predicted_WHIP	1.7257

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.6130	1.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.6070	2.3030	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.9406	5.9406	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.2040	3.6009	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6670	0.3329	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.5220	4.2605	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7257	1.7257	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	4
HR	0
BF	16
Pitches	87

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	5.73
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.2
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	656427
playerID	656427
playerName	Jack Flaherty
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Burch Smith (572143) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 10

All-history rows before 20260517: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.400	1.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.330	2.000	-0.230	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.800	1.000	0.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	3.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	4.7647	1.5882	0.5294	1.0588	0.5294	1.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	14.000	5.000	14.000	6.000	18.000	1.000	3.2143	1.4286	0.3571	1.0000	0.4286	1.2857	0.0714
season	0.20	10	14.000	5.000	14.000	6.000	18.000	1.000	3.2143	1.4286	0.3571	1.0000	0.4286	1.2857	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5280
predicted_ER	0.5850
predicted_ERA	4.1565
predicted_H	1.2310
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3460
predicted_WHIP	1.3888

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5280	0.1998	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5850	0.2214	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1565	4.1565	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.2310	1.7090	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1650	0.0624	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3460	1.7525	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3888	1.3888	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	6

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	572143
playerID	572143
playerName	Burch Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Brant Hurter (676428) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 19

All-history rows before 20260517: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.421	2.000	-0.421	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.684	1.000	-0.684	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.942	0.200	0.058	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.842	1.000	1.158	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.200	2.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	0.000	2.3478	1.3043	0.2609	0.6522	0.6522	0.7826	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	2.000	6.000	5.000	10.000	0.000	1.3500	0.8250	0.1500	0.4500	0.3750	0.7500	0.0000
season	0.20	18	22.100	5.000	13.000	8.000	16.000	1.000	2.0149	0.9403	0.2239	0.5821	0.3582	0.7164	0.0448

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5330
predicted_ER	0.4270
predicted_ERA	3.1316
predicted_H	0.9370
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0580
predicted_WHIP	1.1978

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5330	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4270	0.1819	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1316	3.1316	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9370	0.3992	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0900	0.0383	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0580	1.5986	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1978	1.1978	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.01
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	676428
playerID	676428
playerName	Brant Hurter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kenley Jansen (445276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 15

All-history rows before 20260517: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.533	0.000	0.467	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.760	1.000	0.440	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	1.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	1.8621	0.9310	0.2069	0.6207	0.3103	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	14	12.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	2.000	2.1892	0.8919	0.2432	0.5676	0.3243	1.4595	0.1622

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3410
predicted_ER	0.3530
predicted_ERA	3.1745
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1460
predicted_WHIP	1.0792

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3410	0.1249	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3530	0.1293	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1745	3.1745	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7380	0.9040	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1100	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1460	0.4199	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0792	1.0792	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	445276
playerID	445276
playerName	Kenley Jansen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kyle Finnegan (640448) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260517: 21

All-history rows before 20260517: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.762	1.000	0.238	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.190	1.000	0.810	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.762	1.000	1.238	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.000	0.057	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.5000	1.5000	0.1667	0.6667	0.8333	0.3333	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	2.000	8.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	1.5429	1.2857	0.1714	0.6857	0.6000	0.8571	0.1714
season	0.20	20	21.200	2.000	13.000	15.000	14.000	2.000	0.8308	1.2923	0.0923	0.6000	0.6923	0.6462	0.0923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6040
predicted_ER	0.3610
predicted_ERA	2.8941
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8770
predicted_WHIP	1.3476

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6040	0.8325	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3610	1.3069	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8941	2.8941	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.9090	2.1158	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1580	0.0668	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8770	0.9480	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3476	1.3476	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	640448
playerID	640448
playerName	Kyle Finnegan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10