Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260516

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260516_ARI@COL 20260516_BAL@WAS 20260516_BOS@ATL 20260516_CHC@CHW 20260516_CIN@CLE 20260516_KC@STL 20260516_LAD@LAA 20260516_MIA@TB 20260516_MIL@MIN 20260516_NYY@NYM 20260516_PHI@PIT 20260516_SD@SEA 20260516_SF@OAK 20260516_TEX@HOU 20260516_TOR@DET

20260516_ARI@COL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.588131, "home_win_probability": 0.41186900000000004, "away_win_probability": 0.588131, "predicted_score_text": "ARI 4 - 3 COL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "ARI 4 - 3 COL", "confidence": 0.588131, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ARI 4 - 3 COL", "winner": "ARI"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 3 COL", "winner": "ARI"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Season-to-date run differential, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	ARI 4 - 3 COL	ARI	0.588	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	ARI 5 - 3 COL	ARI	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away ARI	4-6	0.400	3.30	3.10	2	2L	cold	strong
Home COL	3-7	0.300	4.40	6.30	-19	1L	average	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away ARI	20-22	0.476	-25	-0.595	True
Home COL	17-27	0.386	-36	-0.818	True
Signal	-	-	-0.223	-0.358	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target ARI	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target COL	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized ARI	34	9	5	0	2	2	8
Player finalized COL	33	9	3	0	1	0	9
Player model fractional ARI	33.00	7.88	4.71	0.74	4.09	3.07	7.10
Player model fractional COL	31.90	7.20	4.03	1.05	3.59	2.84	9.29
Simulation box ARI	35	8	5	2	5	2	7
Simulation box COL	36	9	3	0	3	2	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away ARI	Starter	Eduardo Rodriguez	6.20	0	5	3	2	3.44	1.30	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Jonathan Loáisiga	1	0	1	0	0	3.84	1.24	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Juan Morillo	0.10	3	1	6	0	4.61	1.39	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Paul Sewald	1	0	0	0	0	4.14	1.30	True
Home COL	Starter	Tomoyuki Sugano	5	1	5	4	1	4.65	1.35	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Antonio Senzatela	1.10	2	1	3	0	3.01	1.05	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Juan Mejia	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.91	1.31	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Victor Vodnik	1	2	0	1	1	5.68	1.70	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Jaden Hill	0.10	0	1	0	0	4.43	1.41	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: ARI

Corbin Carroll (682998) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2708

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	0.756	1.000
predicted_3B	0.098	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_AB	3.512	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.512	5.000	0.488	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.400	0.479	0.350
predicted_BB	0.585	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.585	0.000	-0.585	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.951	2.000	2.049	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.391	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.378	0.400	0.372	0.350
predicted_R	0.683	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.683	2.000	0.317	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.464	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.400	0.500	0.600
predicted_SO	0.951	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.951	0.000	-0.951	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.098	-
predicted_AB	3.512	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.585	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.391	-
predicted_R	0.683	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.464	-
predicted_SO	0.951	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	0.012
predicted_3B	0.079	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.500	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.624	0.039
predicted_H	0.950	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.098	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.391	0.000
predicted_R	0.705	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.348	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.464	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.859	-0.092

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.079	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.008
predicted_BB	0.629	0.006
predicted_H	0.982	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.390	-0.001
predicted_R	0.745	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.368	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.022
predicted_SO	0.851	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	0.3125	0.5000	0.4375	0.3125	0.0000	0.0000	0.3750	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	7.000	3.000	0.2647	0.3953	0.4412	0.2647	0.0294	0.0588	0.2059	0.0882
season	0.60	41	-	144.000	39.000	10.000	4.000	5.000	20.000	28.000	24.000	39.000	0.2708	0.3779	0.5000	0.2708	0.0347	0.1389	0.1667	0.2708

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2740
predicted_3B	0.0510
predicted_AB	3.4820
predicted_AVG	0.2729
predicted_BB	0.6800
predicted_H	0.9500
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.3909
predicted_R	0.7380
predicted_RBI	0.3460
predicted_SLG	0.4637
predicted_SO	0.7250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.2740	0.2562	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0980	0.0510	0.0789	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5120	3.4820	3.4998	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2729	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5850	0.6800	0.6236	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9500	0.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0960	0.0984	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3910	0.3909	0.3910	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6830	0.7380	0.7054	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3460	0.3484	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4640	0.4637	0.4639	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9510	0.7250	0.8591	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	682998
playerID	682998
playerName	Corbin Carroll
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ketel Marte (606466) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 39

All-history rows before 20260516: 39

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2099

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	-0.051
predicted_AB	4.280	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.154	5.000	0.846
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	-0.210
predicted_BB	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.282	0.000	-0.282
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.872	0.000	-0.872
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.260	0.000	-0.260
predicted_R	0.513	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.513	0.000	-0.513
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	0.000	-0.385
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.358	0.000	-0.358
predicted_SO	0.795	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.795	1.000	0.205

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	4.280	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.282	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.513	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.354	-
predicted_SO	0.795	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.013
predicted_3B	0.069	0.018
predicted_AB	4.200	-0.080
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.285	0.003
predicted_H	0.864	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.088	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000
predicted_R	0.476	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.413	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.354	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.758	-0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.000
predicted_3B	0.069	0.000
predicted_AB	4.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.007
predicted_BB	0.287	0.003
predicted_H	0.893	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.091	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.004
predicted_R	0.502	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.437	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.751	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.280

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.3500	0.2000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2045	0.3095	0.1667	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.1429
season	0.60	39	-	162.000	34.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	15.000	20.000	11.000	31.000	0.2099	0.2601	0.3580	0.2099	0.0309	0.0926	0.0679	0.1914

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0960
predicted_AB	4.0830
predicted_AVG	0.2059
predicted_BB	0.2890
predicted_H	0.8400
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.2594
predicted_R	0.4210
predicted_RBI	0.4040
predicted_SLG	0.3537
predicted_SO	0.7040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.1610	0.1414	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0960	0.0693	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2800	4.0830	4.1999	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2059	0.2060	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2820	0.2890	0.2848	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8400	0.8637	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0840	0.0876	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2594	0.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5130	0.4210	0.4756	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4040	0.4135	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3540	0.3537	0.3539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7950	0.7040	0.7580	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	606466
playerID	606466
playerName	Ketel Marte
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (666971) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.684	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.684	3.000	0.316	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.333	-0.200	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	1.000	-0.421	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	1.000	-0.737	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.400	-0.278	-0.400
predicted_R	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.275	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.243	0.333	-0.243	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.684	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.684	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.263	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.275	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	0.007
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.687	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000
predicted_BB	0.417	-0.004
predicted_H	0.662	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.285	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.375	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.275	0.000
predicted_SO	0.708	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.687	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.421	0.004
predicted_H	0.685	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.032	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.008
predicted_R	0.301	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.257	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.701	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1053	0.1818	0.1579	0.1053	0.1579	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	0.2059	0.3171	0.2647	0.2059	0.0882	0.1765	0.2059
season	0.60	19	-	70.000	14.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	8.000	13.000	0.2000	0.2785	0.2429	0.2000	0.1000	0.1143	0.1857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1760
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6910
predicted_AVG	0.1992
predicted_BB	0.4100
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.2774
predicted_R	0.3220
predicted_RBI	0.4180
predicted_SLG	0.2754
predicted_SO	0.7490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1760	0.1647	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6840	3.6910	3.6866	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1992	0.1991	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.4100	0.4169	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7350	0.6625	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2774	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2630	0.3220	0.2848	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4180	0.3751	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2750	0.2754	0.2751	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.7490	0.7080	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666971
playerID	666971
playerName	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 34

All-history rows before 20260516: 34

System season_avg: 0.3360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3357

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.8000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	1.000	-0.206	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	4.118	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.118	5.000	-0.118	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.336	0.800	0.164	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.382	4.000	0.618	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.206	0.000	0.794	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.800	0.146	-0.300
predicted_R	0.706	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.706	2.000	0.294	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.794	2.000	1.206	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.491	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.550	1.000	0.700	0.250
predicted_SO	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	4.118	-
predicted_AVG	0.307	-
predicted_BB	0.118	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.706	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.491	-
predicted_SO	0.441	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	4.107	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.000
predicted_BB	0.134	0.016
predicted_H	1.181	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.159	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000
predicted_R	0.696	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.771	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.000
predicted_SO	0.473	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	4.107	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.136	0.001
predicted_H	1.220	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.164	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.015
predicted_R	0.735	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.815	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.478	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.469	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.118

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.5238	0.3333	0.0476	0.2857	0.0476	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.2619	0.2791	0.3810	0.2619	0.0238	0.2143	0.0238	0.1191
season	0.60	34	-	140.000	47.000	7.000	1.000	7.000	27.000	24.000	4.000	15.000	0.3357	0.3542	0.5500	0.3357	0.0500	0.1929	0.0286	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	4.0900
predicted_AVG	0.3073
predicted_BB	0.1590
predicted_H	1.2570
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1720
predicted_OBP	0.3349
predicted_R	0.6810
predicted_RBI	0.8180
predicted_SLG	0.4909
predicted_SO	0.5210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.1990	0.2032	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0170	0.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1180	4.0900	4.1068	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3070	0.3073	0.3071	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1180	0.1590	0.1344	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.2570	1.1807	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1720	0.1588	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3349	0.3350	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7060	0.6810	0.6960	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.8180	0.7712	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4910	0.4909	0.4910	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4410	0.5210	0.4730	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.336

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.8
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 28

All-history rows before 20260516: 28

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	5.000	0.250	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.200	-0.286	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.071	1.000	-1.071	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.200	-0.324	-0.200
predicted_R	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.464	1.000	-0.464	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.410	0.400	-0.410	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.893	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.893	0.000	1.107	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.179	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	-
predicted_SO	0.893	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.748	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.196	0.017
predicted_H	0.787	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.071	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.658	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.344	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.748	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.198	0.002
predicted_H	0.813	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.088	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.256	-0.035
predicted_R	0.696	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.363	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.327	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.900	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.1579	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.1944	0.2750	0.3056	0.1944	0.0278	0.0556	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.60	28	-	105.000	30.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	20.000	5.000	25.000	0.2857	0.3243	0.4095	0.2857	0.0286	0.1238	0.0476	0.2381

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7440
predicted_AVG	0.2340
predicted_BB	0.2240
predicted_H	0.8760
predicted_HBP	0.0710
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_OBP	0.2914
predicted_R	0.5700
predicted_RBI	0.3820
predicted_SLG	0.3503
predicted_SO	0.9340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1520	0.1465	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7440	3.7477	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2340	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1790	0.2240	0.1964	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8760	0.7866	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0710	0.0710	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0920	0.0847	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2914	0.2912	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.5700	0.6582	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3820	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3500	0.3503	0.3501	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8930	0.9340	0.9089	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	699912
playerID	699912
playerName	Jose Fernandez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Nolan Arenado (571448) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 40

All-history rows before 20260516: 40

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2815

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	1.000	0.825	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.375	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.375	1.000	0.625	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.281	1.000	-0.031	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	4.000	-0.375	-4.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.950	1.000	0.050	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.353	1.000	-0.103	-0.750
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	2.000	0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.467	2.000	0.033	-1.500
predicted_SO	0.725	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.725	0.000	-0.725	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.375	-
predicted_AVG	0.287	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.388	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.494	-
predicted_SO	0.725	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.247	0.072
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.353	-0.022
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.000
predicted_BB	0.471	0.096
predicted_H	0.939	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.035	-
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.000
predicted_R	0.662	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.436	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.000
predicted_SO	0.716	-0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.247	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.353	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.003
predicted_BB	0.475	0.004
predicted_H	0.971	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.035	0.000
predicted_HR	0.114	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.378	-0.010
predicted_R	0.700	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.465	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.709	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	3.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.6000	0.3333	0.0000	0.1333	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	9.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	9.000	6.000	0.3000	0.4634	0.5667	0.3000	0.0333	0.1000	0.3000	0.2000
season	0.60	40	-	135.000	38.000	7.000	6.000	20.000	24.000	15.000	29.000	0.2815	0.3529	0.4667	0.2815	0.0444	0.1482	0.1111	0.2148

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3530
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3190
predicted_AVG	0.2871
predicted_BB	0.6140
predicted_H	0.9530
predicted_HBP	0.0350
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.3881
predicted_R	0.7550
predicted_RBI	0.4440
predicted_SLG	0.4939
predicted_SO	0.7020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.3530	0.2466	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3750	3.3190	3.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2870	0.2871	0.2870	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.6140	0.4711	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9530	0.9392	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0350	0.0350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1100	0.1100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3880	0.3881	0.3880	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.7550	0.6623	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4440	0.4356	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4940	0.4939	0.4940	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7250	0.7020	0.7158	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	4
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	571448
playerID	571448
playerName	Nolan Arenado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 40

All-history rows before 20260516: 40

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2174

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.075	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_AB	3.450	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.450	5.000	-1.450	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.200	-0.217	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.625	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.625	0.000	1.375	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.200	0.167	0.300
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.348	0.200	-0.348	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.575	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.575	1.000	0.425	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.075	-
predicted_AB	3.450	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.625	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	0.575	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.009
predicted_3B	0.062	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.506	0.056
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.596	-0.029
predicted_H	0.687	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.000
predicted_R	0.393	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.298	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.622	0.047

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.506	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.004
predicted_BB	0.601	0.006
predicted_H	0.710	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.043	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.015
predicted_R	0.415	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.315	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.014
predicted_SO	0.616	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	8.000	0.1389	0.2791	0.1944	0.1389	0.0000	0.0833	0.1944	0.2222
season	0.60	40	-	138.000	30.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	16.000	25.000	23.000	0.2174	0.3333	0.3478	0.2174	0.0145	0.0870	0.1812	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1710
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.5880
predicted_AVG	0.1981
predicted_BB	0.5530
predicted_H	0.7110
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.3037
predicted_R	0.3820
predicted_RBI	0.3090
predicted_SLG	0.3058
predicted_SO	0.6910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1710	0.1585	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0750	0.0420	0.0616	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4500	3.5880	3.5059	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1981	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6250	0.5530	0.5958	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7110	0.6866	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0440	0.0416	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3037	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3820	0.3927	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3090	0.2977	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3058	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5750	0.6910	0.6220	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

James McCann (543510) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 10

All-history rows before 20260516: 10

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2414

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.900	0.000	1.100	4.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.241	-	0.009	-
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.267	-	-0.017	-
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.310	-	-0.060	-
predicted_SO	1.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.100	0.000	-0.100	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.374	-
predicted_SO	1.222	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.341	0.119
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.127	0.015
predicted_H	0.754	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.362	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.307	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000
predicted_SO	1.186	-0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.341	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.035
predicted_BB	0.128	0.001
predicted_H	0.779	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.047	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.043
predicted_R	0.383	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.324	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.033
predicted_SO	1.175	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3889	0.3333	0.1111	0.0000	0.3889
last_10	0.20	9	-	29.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	11.000	0.2414	0.2667	0.3103	0.2414	0.0690	0.0345	0.3793
season	0.60	9	-	29.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	11.000	0.2414	0.2667	0.3103	0.2414	0.0690	0.0345	0.3793

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1970
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6150
predicted_AVG	0.2682
predicted_BB	0.1620
predicted_H	0.9690
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.3044
predicted_R	0.4290
predicted_RBI	0.3910
predicted_SLG	0.3742
predicted_SO	1.1020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1970	0.2144	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	3.6150	3.3414	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2682	0.2681	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.1620	0.1265	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.9690	0.7539	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0580	0.0455	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3044	0.3041	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4290	0.3622	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3910	0.3068	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3740	0.3742	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2220	1.1020	1.1856	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	22.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260421_CHW@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	543510
playerID	543510
playerName	James McCann
pos	C
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ryan Waldschmidt (814439) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 6

All-history rows before 20260516: 6

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2381

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.250	0.012	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.250	-0.023	0.000
predicted_R	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.833	2.000	1.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.250	0.667	0.750
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.316	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.558	0.058
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.189	0.022
predicted_H	0.798	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.000
predicted_R	0.222	0.055
predicted_RBI	0.583	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000
predicted_SO	0.936	-0.064

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.316	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.558	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.191	0.002
predicted_H	0.825	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.057	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.036
predicted_R	0.235	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.616	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.370	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.928	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.3889	0.2778	0.2778	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	6	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.3333	0.2381	0.2381	0.0476	0.2857
season	0.60	6	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.3333	0.2381	0.2381	0.0476	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2710
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.7070
predicted_AVG	0.2554
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_H	0.9470
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.3066
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.6910
predicted_SLG	0.3881
predicted_SO	0.7740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2710	0.3156	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7070	3.5582	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2554	0.2551	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2440	0.1887	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.9470	0.7982	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0680	0.0551	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3066	0.3069	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.3630	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.6910	0.5825	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3881	0.3880	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7740	0.9364	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	814439
playerID	814439
playerName	Ryan Waldschmidt
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Eduardo Rodriguez (593958) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 8

All-history rows before 20260516: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.750	3.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.500	1.000	-1.500	-1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.500	4.000	-1.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	6.200	6.200	6.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.912	8.100	0.288	-1.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	4.125	4.000	0.875	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 8.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	11.000	23.000	17.000	22.000	3.000	3.3000	1.3333	0.3667	0.7667	0.5667	0.7333	0.1000
last_10	0.35	8	48.000	12.000	36.000	22.000	33.000	4.000	2.2500	1.2083	0.2500	0.7500	0.4583	0.6875	0.0833
season	0.20	8	48.000	12.000	36.000	22.000	33.000	4.000	2.2500	1.2083	0.2500	0.7500	0.4583	0.6875	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.2080
predicted_ER	2.5870
predicted_ERA	3.4400
predicted_H	5.6150
predicted_HR	0.7310
predicted_IP	6.2000
predicted_SO	5.4830
predicted_WHIP	1.3034

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	3.2080	2.5889	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.5870	1.2612	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4400	3.4400	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.6150	4.2748	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7310	0.3564	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	8.0000	6.2000	7.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	5.4830	3.6980	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3034	1.3034	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.2
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	5
HR	0
BF	25
Pitches	103

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	31
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.25
Pitching_Flyouts	7
Pitching_Groundouts	10
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	8.1
Pitching_Pitches	100
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	593958
playerID	593958
playerName	Eduardo Rodriguez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 2

All-history rows before 20260516: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1460
predicted_ER	0.1790
predicted_ERA	3.8422
predicted_H	0.3740
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3960
predicted_WHIP	1.2436

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1460	0.0385	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1790	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8422	3.8422	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3740	0.0985	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0500	0.0132	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.3960	1.5776	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2436	1.2436	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 2

All-history rows before 20260516: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	-0.500	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1530
predicted_ER	0.1810
predicted_ERA	4.6086
predicted_H	0.3380
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3310
predicted_WHIP	1.3863

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1530	0.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.1810	2.2847	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6086	4.6086	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	0.3380	4.5633	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0560	0.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.3310	2.3228	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3863	1.3863	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 1

All-history rows before 20260516: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	0.900	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100
last_10	0.35	1	0.100
season	0.20	1	0.100

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1250
predicted_ER	0.1530
predicted_ERA	4.1436
predicted_H	0.3090
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3150
predicted_WHIP	1.3020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1250	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1530	0.0357	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1436	4.1436	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3090	0.0720	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0430	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3150	0.0734	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3020	1.3020	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Home Team: COL

Sterlin Thompson (694514) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 0

All-history rows before 20260516: 0

System season_avg: 0.2439

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2439

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.509	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.386	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.869	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.464	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.952	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.014	-
predicted_AB	3.509	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.386	-
predicted_H	0.869	-
predicted_HR	0.116	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.464	-
predicted_RBI	0.426	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	0.952	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.001
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000
predicted_AB	3.554	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.370	-0.016
predicted_H	0.878	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.117	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.003
predicted_R	0.469	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.433	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.403	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.937	-0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000
predicted_AB	3.554	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.367	-0.003
predicted_H	0.872	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.117	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.003
predicted_R	0.461	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.426	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.400	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.943	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.60	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7980
predicted_AVG	0.2439
predicted_BB	0.2830
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.3051
predicted_R	0.4930
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.3944
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1790	0.1723	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0140	0.0140	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5090	3.7980	3.5545	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2439	0.2474	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3860	0.2830	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8690	0.9260	0.8780	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1160	0.1220	0.1169	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3051	0.3193	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4640	0.4930	0.4686	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4260	0.4710	0.4331	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.3944	0.4025	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9520	0.8540	0.9366	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Brenton Doyle (686668) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 27

All-history rows before 20260516: 27

System season_avg: 0.1440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1444

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	1.667	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.137	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.144	0.000	-0.144	0.000
predicted_BB	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.481	0.000	-0.481	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.215	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.230	0.000	-0.230	0.000
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.203	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SO	1.333	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	2.000	0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.137	-
predicted_BB	0.370	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.215	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.203	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.359	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.137	0.000
predicted_BB	0.355	-0.015
predicted_H	0.457	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.215	0.000
predicted_R	0.437	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.162	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.203	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.293	-0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.359	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.135	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.353	-0.002
predicted_H	0.453	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.041	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.002
predicted_R	0.430	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.160	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.196	-0.007
predicted_SO	1.302	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.135 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.0000	0.0588	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.3750
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	14.000	0.0938	0.1944	0.1250	0.0938	0.0000	0.0312	0.1250	0.4375
season	0.60	27	-	90.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	36.000	0.1444	0.2300	0.2000	0.1444	0.0111	0.0333	0.1111	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4000
predicted_AVG	0.1374
predicted_BB	0.3310
predicted_H	0.4670
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.2155
predicted_R	0.4260
predicted_RBI	0.1660
predicted_SLG	0.2026
predicted_SO	1.2290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0740	0.0880	0.0794	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.4000	3.3586	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1370	0.1374	0.1372	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3700	0.3310	0.3551	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.4670	0.4565	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0430	0.0411	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2150	0.2155	0.2152	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4260	0.4371	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1660	0.1623	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2030	0.2026	0.2028	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.2290	1.2932	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.144

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	686668
playerID	686668
playerName	Brenton Doyle
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

TJ Rumfield (681198) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2710

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.780	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.780	4.000	-0.780	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.062	0.333
predicted_BB	0.366	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.366	0.000	0.634	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.024	0.000	-0.024	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.000	0.159	0.500
predicted_R	0.415	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.415	0.000	0.585	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	0.000	0.488	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.426	0.000	0.241	0.667
predicted_SO	0.732	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.732	1.000	0.268	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.780	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.366	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.415	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.467	-
predicted_SO	0.732	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.763	-0.017
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.366	0.000
predicted_H	1.045	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.083	-
predicted_HR	0.162	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.453	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.443	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.467	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.764	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.763	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.363	-0.003
predicted_H	1.038	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.083	0.000
predicted_HR	0.162	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.018
predicted_R	0.445	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.435	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.461	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.770	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	8.000	0.3333	0.4091	0.5897	0.3333	0.0769	0.1282	0.1026	0.2051
season	0.60	41	-	155.000	42.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	21.000	17.000	15.000	30.000	0.2710	0.3410	0.4258	0.2710	0.0323	0.1355	0.0968	0.1935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7390
predicted_AVG	0.2815
predicted_BB	0.3660
predicted_H	1.0530
predicted_HBP	0.0830
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_OBP	0.3574
predicted_R	0.5080
predicted_RBI	0.4470
predicted_SLG	0.4667
predicted_SO	0.8120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1660	0.1690	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7800	3.7390	3.7633	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2815	0.2812	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3660	0.3660	0.3660	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.0530	1.0453	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0830	0.0830	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1660	0.1624	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3574	0.3572	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4150	0.5080	0.4528	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4470	0.4428	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4670	0.4667	0.4669	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7320	0.8120	0.7645	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	681198
playerID	681198
playerName	TJ Rumfield
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	COL
teamID	9

Willi Castro (650489) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 32

All-history rows before 20260516: 32

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2328

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.720	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	3.000	1.375	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.367	0.600
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.844	0.000	2.156	3.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.000	0.301	0.600
predicted_R	0.562	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.406	0.000	-0.406	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.321	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.272	0.600
predicted_SO	1.281	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.281	0.000	-0.281	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.720	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.562	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.321	-
predicted_SO	1.281	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.686	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.302	-0.010
predicted_H	0.753	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.107	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000
predicted_R	0.549	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.356	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.247	-0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.686	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.300	-0.002
predicted_H	0.747	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.107	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.003
predicted_R	0.539	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.350	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.007
predicted_SO	1.255	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.0588	0.1111	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	13.000	0.2162	0.2750	0.2973	0.2162	0.0270	0.0541	0.0811	0.3513
season	0.60	32	-	116.000	27.000	5.000	2.000	13.000	18.000	10.000	41.000	0.2328	0.2992	0.3276	0.2328	0.0172	0.1121	0.0862	0.3534

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6340
predicted_AVG	0.2041
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_H	0.7420
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_OBP	0.2660
predicted_R	0.5280
predicted_RBI	0.3500
predicted_SLG	0.3205
predicted_SO	1.1940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1090	0.1375	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7200	3.6340	3.6861	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2041	0.2040	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.2860	0.3018	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.7420	0.7529	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1030	0.1072	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2660	0.2660	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5620	0.5280	0.5486	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3500	0.3561	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3210	0.3205	0.3208	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2810	1.1940	1.2467	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-SS
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	650489
playerID	650489
playerName	Willi Castro
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Mickey Moniak (666160) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 33

All-history rows before 20260516: 33

System season_avg: 0.3150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3150

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.848	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.848	4.000	0.152	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.315	0.250	-0.065	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.212	1.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.250	-0.112	0.000
predicted_R	0.636	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.758	0.000	-0.758	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.642	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.701	0.500	-0.451	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.091	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.091	0.000	-0.091	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.848	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.642	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	0.003
predicted_3B	0.076	0.015
predicted_AB	3.845	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000
predicted_BB	0.271	-0.002
predicted_H	1.068	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.263	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.582	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.703	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.642	0.000
predicted_SO	1.062	-0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.076	0.000
predicted_AB	3.845	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.269	-0.002
predicted_H	1.060	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.263	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.022
predicted_R	0.572	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.691	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.592	-0.050
predicted_SO	1.069	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.848

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.6842	0.3158	0.0526	0.2632	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	0.2821	0.3333	0.6923	0.2821	0.0769	0.2051	0.0769	0.3077
season	0.60	33	-	127.000	40.000	9.000	2.000	12.000	25.000	21.000	9.000	36.000	0.3150	0.3623	0.7008	0.3150	0.0945	0.1968	0.0709	0.2835

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2810
predicted_3B	0.0980
predicted_AB	3.8400
predicted_AVG	0.2970
predicted_BB	0.2670
predicted_H	1.1400
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.2830
predicted_OBP	0.3453
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.7530
predicted_SLG	0.6419
predicted_SO	1.0180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.2810	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.0980	0.0757	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8480	3.8400	3.8448	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2970	0.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2670	0.2706	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.1400	1.0677	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2830	0.2631	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3453	0.3451	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.5000	0.5819	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.7530	0.7030	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6420	0.6419	0.6420	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	1.0180	1.0620	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.315

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666160
playerID	666160
playerName	Mickey Moniak
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	COL
teamID	9

Ezequiel Tovar (678662) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 40

All-history rows before 20260516: 40

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2055

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.225	1.000	-0.225	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.650	2.000	0.350	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.500	0.045	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.500	-0.005	-0.250
predicted_R	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.288	1.000	-0.038	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.050	0.000	-0.050	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.650	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.275	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.324	-
predicted_SO	1.050	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.565	-0.085
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.206	0.006
predicted_H	0.775	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.294	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.281	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.324	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.971	-0.079

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.565	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.204	-0.001
predicted_H	0.769	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.031
predicted_R	0.289	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.276	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.301	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.978	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3571	0.4000	0.4286	0.3571	0.0000	0.0714	0.0714	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.2258	0.2647	0.2581	0.2258	0.0000	0.0968	0.0645	0.2581
season	0.60	40	-	146.000	30.000	9.000	1.000	11.000	11.000	8.000	42.000	0.2055	0.2548	0.2877	0.2055	0.0069	0.0753	0.0548	0.2877

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1930
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4390
predicted_AVG	0.2405
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_H	0.8270
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2889
predicted_R	0.3220
predicted_RBI	0.2960
predicted_SLG	0.3235
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2250	0.1930	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6500	3.4390	3.5649	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2405	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2140	0.2056	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8270	0.7751	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0300	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2889	0.2890	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2750	0.3220	0.2939	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2960	0.2805	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3240	0.3235	0.3238	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0500	0.8540	0.9710	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	678662
playerID	678662
playerName	Ezequiel Tovar
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Karros (691720) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 38

All-history rows before 20260516: 38

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2241

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.053	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.053	3.000	0.947	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.333	-0.224	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.553	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.553	0.000	-0.553	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.684	1.000	-0.684	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.333	-0.338	-0.333
predicted_R	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.302	0.333	-0.302	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.921	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.921	0.000	0.079	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.053	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.553	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	0.921	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.145	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.506	-0.047
predicted_H	0.696	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000
predicted_R	0.424	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.409	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.943	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.145	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.502	-0.003
predicted_H	0.691	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.031	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.327	-0.002
predicted_R	0.417	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.403	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.309	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.949	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.3529	0.2353	0.0000	0.2941	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	0.3030	0.3784	0.3939	0.3030	0.0000	0.1818	0.1212	0.3636
season	0.60	38	-	116.000	26.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	16.000	21.000	35.000	0.2241	0.3381	0.3017	0.2241	0.0086	0.0862	0.1810	0.3017

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2240
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2830
predicted_AVG	0.2424
predicted_BB	0.4340
predicted_H	0.7960
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.3290
predicted_R	0.4280
predicted_RBI	0.4690
predicted_SLG	0.3417
predicted_SO	0.9750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.2240	0.1843	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0530	3.2830	3.1446	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2424	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5530	0.4340	0.5056	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7960	0.6961	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3290	0.3290	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.4280	0.4238	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4690	0.4094	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3417	0.3419	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9210	0.9750	0.9425	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	691720
playerID	691720
playerName	Kyle Karros
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	COL
teamID	9

Hunter Goodman (696100) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 38

All-history rows before 20260516: 38

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2434

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.250	0.007	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	1.000	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.250	-0.057	0.000
predicted_R	0.658	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.658	1.000	0.342	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	1.000	1.526	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.513	1.000	-0.263	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.553	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.553	0.000	-1.553	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.280	-
predicted_R	0.658	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.455	-
predicted_SO	1.553	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.994	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000
predicted_BB	0.263	-0.026
predicted_H	0.898	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.225	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.000
predicted_R	0.586	-0.073
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.000
predicted_SO	1.433	-0.120

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.994	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.261	-0.002
predicted_H	0.892	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.225	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.009
predicted_R	0.576	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.430	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.443	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.442	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	0.2195	0.2558	0.3902	0.2195	0.0488	0.0976	0.0488	0.2927
season	0.60	38	-	152.000	37.000	8.000	11.000	18.000	25.000	11.000	59.000	0.2434	0.3072	0.5132	0.2434	0.0724	0.1184	0.0724	0.3882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1860
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9860
predicted_AVG	0.2321
predicted_BB	0.2250
predicted_H	0.9250
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.2330
predicted_OBP	0.2800
predicted_R	0.4790
predicted_RBI	0.4490
predicted_SLG	0.4550
predicted_SO	1.2560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.1860	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9860	3.9943	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2321	0.2320	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.2250	0.2631	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9250	0.8982	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2330	0.2253	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2800	0.2800	0.2800	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6580	0.4790	0.5855	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4490	0.4377	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4550	0.4550	0.4550	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5530	1.2560	1.4327	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	696100
playerID	696100
playerName	Hunter Goodman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	COL
teamID	9

Jake McCarthy (664983) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 28

All-history rows before 20260516: 28

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2683

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	2.929	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.929	3.000	0.071	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	0.065	0.333
predicted_BB	0.214	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	0.000	0.214	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.000	0.174	0.500
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.476	0.000	-0.142	0.333
predicted_SO	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	2.929	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.452	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.064	-0.007
predicted_AB	2.991	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.225	0.011
predicted_H	0.687	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.078	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.311	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.452	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.581	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	0.000
predicted_3B	0.064	0.000
predicted_AB	2.991	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.223	-0.002
predicted_H	0.682	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.036
predicted_R	0.306	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.423	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.429	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.585	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.3077	0.2308	0.0000	0.0769	0.0769	0.1538
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.2759	0.3438	0.6207	0.2759	0.0690	0.2759	0.1035	0.1724
season	0.60	28	-	82.000	22.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	14.000	8.000	6.000	16.000	0.2683	0.3258	0.4756	0.2683	0.0244	0.1707	0.0732	0.1951

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2230
predicted_3B	0.0530
predicted_AB	3.0940
predicted_AVG	0.2577
predicted_BB	0.2430
predicted_H	0.7970
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_OBP	0.3173
predicted_R	0.3520
predicted_RBI	0.4970
predicted_SLG	0.4517
predicted_SO	0.5970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2230	0.2398	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.0530	0.0642	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9290	3.0940	2.9911	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2577	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2430	0.2249	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7970	0.6866	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0910	0.0779	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3173	0.3171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.3520	0.3108	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4970	0.4303	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4520	0.4517	0.4519	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.5970	0.5808	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	664983
playerID	664983
playerName	Jake McCarthy
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

Tomoyuki Sugano (608372) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 8

All-history rows before 20260516: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	1.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.375	5.000	-1.375	-4.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.750	7.000	-0.750	-3.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.075	5.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	3.000	2.000	2.000	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.100	15.000	28.000	9.000	12.000	5.000	5.3289	1.4605	0.5921	1.1053	0.3553	0.4737	0.1974
last_10	0.35	8	42.000	19.000	38.000	12.000	24.000	9.000	4.0714	1.1905	0.4524	0.9048	0.2857	0.5714	0.2143
season	0.20	8	42.000	19.000	38.000	12.000	24.000	9.000	4.0714	1.1905	0.4524	0.9048	0.2857	0.5714	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7800
predicted_ER	2.6160
predicted_ERA	4.6480
predicted_H	5.0750
predicted_HR	0.8840
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	3.4360
predicted_WHIP	1.3533

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.7800	1.3803	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.6160	1.7878	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6480	4.6480	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.0750	4.5241	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8840	0.4310	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.4360	3.7250	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3533	1.3533	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	82

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	4.07
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	81
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	48
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	608372
playerID	608372
playerName	Tomoyuki Sugano
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 12

All-history rows before 20260516: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	1.000	1.667	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.167	1.000	1.833	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.025	3.000	-0.925	-1.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	11.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.5454	0.2727	0.6364	0.0909
last_10	0.35	10	22.200	4.000	12.000	6.000	18.000	1.000	1.5882	0.7941	0.1765	0.5294	0.2647	0.7941	0.0441
season	0.20	12	27.100	4.000	14.000	7.000	24.000	1.000	1.3171	0.7683	0.1463	0.5122	0.2561	0.8780	0.0366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5960
predicted_ER	0.6210
predicted_ERA	3.0139
predicted_H	1.3490
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.5640
predicted_WHIP	1.0487

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5960	0.2667	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6210	1.3828	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0139	3.0139	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.3490	2.2611	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1760	0.6312	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	2.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5640	1.2524	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0487	1.0487	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.32
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Juan Mejia (675848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 17

All-history rows before 20260516: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.294	0.000	-1.294	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.059	1.000	0.041	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.529	1.000	-1.529	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	10.000	1.000	3.0000	1.1667	0.3333	0.5000	0.6667	1.6667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	5.000	11.000	5.000	21.000	1.000	3.7500	1.3333	0.4167	0.9167	0.4167	1.7500	0.0833
season	0.20	17	20.100	10.000	22.000	9.000	26.000	2.000	4.4262	1.5246	0.4918	1.0820	0.4426	1.2787	0.0984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5990
predicted_ER	0.5790
predicted_ERA	3.9077
predicted_H	1.1460
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6690
predicted_WHIP	1.3091

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5990	0.2494	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5790	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9077	3.9077	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1460	0.4771	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1690	0.0704	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.6690	0.6949	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3091	1.3091	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.43
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	675848
playerID	675848
playerName	Juan Mejia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 16

All-history rows before 20260516: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.688	1.000	0.312	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.812	1.000	1.188	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.500	2.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.975	0.200	0.025	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.938	1.000	-0.938	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	4.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	6.7500	2.2500	0.7500	1.3125	0.9375	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	11.000	16.000	8.000	10.000	1.000	9.9000	2.4000	1.1000	1.6000	0.8000	1.0000	0.1000
season	0.20	16	17.000	13.000	24.000	11.000	15.000	2.000	6.8824	2.0588	0.7647	1.4118	0.6471	0.8823	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5620
predicted_ER	0.6310
predicted_ERA	5.6829
predicted_H	1.1380
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9530
predicted_WHIP	1.7004

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5620	0.8257	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6310	1.4553	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6829	5.6829	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1380	1.0549	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1010	0.6423	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9530	0.3792	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7004	1.7004	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.88
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Jaden Hill (677955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	1.000	-0.500	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	4.9091	1.0909	0.5454	0.8182	0.2727	1.0909	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	5.000	12.000	6.000	10.000	1.000	5.4000	2.1600	0.6000	1.4400	0.7200	1.2000	0.1200
season	0.20	18	15.000	6.000	15.000	9.000	16.000	1.000	3.6000	1.6000	0.4000	1.0000	0.6000	1.0667	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1940
predicted_ER	0.2250
predicted_ERA	4.4304
predicted_H	0.4530
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.4670
predicted_WHIP	1.4118

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1940	0.0748	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2250	0.0867	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4304	4.4304	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4530	0.1746	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0470	0.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4670	1.4093	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4118	1.4118	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.60
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	677955
playerID	677955
playerName	Jaden Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

20260516_BAL@WAS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.590856, "home_win_probability": 0.590856, "away_win_probability": 0.40914399999999995, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 WAS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 WAS", "confidence": 0.590856, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 WAS", "winner": "WAS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 3 - 6 WAS", "winner": "WAS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	BAL 4 - 5 WAS	WAS	0.591	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	BAL 3 - 6 WAS	WAS	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away BAL	5-5	0.500	4	3.70	3	1L	average	average
Home WAS	6-4	0.600	5.90	6.10	-2	1W	hot	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away BAL	20-25	0.444	-38	-0.844	True
Home WAS	22-23	0.489	-19	-0.422	True
Signal	-	-	0.422	0.489	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-15	BAL @ WAS	2 - 3	WAS	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target BAL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target WAS	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized BAL	33	9	4	0	3	2	9
Player finalized WAS	33	9	7	0	4	1	8
Player model fractional BAL	32.64	6.90	4.40	0.92	3.87	3.79	8.55
Player model fractional WAS	32.40	7.66	5.13	1.18	4.32	3.04	7.19
Simulation box BAL	33	6	3	1	3	7	7
Simulation box WAS	30	7	6	1	6	3	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away BAL	Starter	Chris Bassitt	4.20	6	3	6	3	4.17	1.47	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Dietrich Enns	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.06	1.27	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Rico Garcia	1	0	1	1	0	2.58	0.98	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Anthony Nunez	1	0	1	0	0	3.83	1.31	True
Home WAS	Starter	Cade Cavalli	4.20	2	4	4	3	3.94	1.46	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Brad Lord	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.03	1.19	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Gus Varland	1.20	1	1	1	3	5.18	1.49	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	PJ Poulin	0.20	0	0	0	1	2.92	1.34	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Richard Lovelady	0.20	0	1	1	0	2.59	1.51	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: BAL

Samuel Basallo (694212) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 31

All-history rows before 20260516: 31

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2672

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.742	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.742	3.000	-0.742	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.333	-0.267	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.355	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.355	1.000	0.645	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.500	-0.081	-0.250
predicted_R	0.516	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.516	1.000	-0.516	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.461	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.466	0.333	-0.466	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.032	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.032	2.000	-0.032	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.742	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.355	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.516	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.461	-
predicted_SO	1.032	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	0.037
predicted_3B	0.033	0.001
predicted_AB	3.760	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.286	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.330	-0.025
predicted_H	1.002	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.000
predicted_R	0.538	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.391	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.461	0.000
predicted_SO	1.027	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.760	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.330	-0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.096	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.011
predicted_R	0.544	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.424	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.029	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.5263	0.3684	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	12.000	0.3077	0.3415	0.4615	0.3077	0.0000	0.1282	0.0513	0.3077
season	0.60	31	-	116.000	31.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	14.000	16.000	11.000	32.000	0.2672	0.3307	0.4655	0.2672	0.0431	0.1207	0.0948	0.2759

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2890
predicted_3B	0.0340
predicted_AB	3.7880
predicted_AVG	0.2857
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_H	1.0820
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_OBP	0.3388
predicted_R	0.5710
predicted_RBI	0.4230
predicted_SLG	0.4611
predicted_SO	1.0200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2890	0.2314	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0340	0.0328	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7420	3.7880	3.7601	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2857	0.2859	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3550	0.2920	0.3302	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0820	1.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1020	0.0947	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3388	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5160	0.5710	0.5377	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4230	0.3909	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4610	0.4611	0.4610	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0320	1.0200	1.0273	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	694212
playerID	694212
playerName	Samuel Basallo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Tyler O'Neill (641933) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_BB	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.250	-0.338	-0.250
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.261	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_SO	0.944	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.944	1.000	0.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.261	-
predicted_SO	0.944	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.078	0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.068	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.169	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.656	-0.011
predicted_H	0.469	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.057	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.000
predicted_R	0.641	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.286	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.965	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.078	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.068	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.154	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.655	-0.001
predicted_H	0.473	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.046	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.015
predicted_R	0.649	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.289	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.226	-0.035
predicted_SO	0.966	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.0714	0.2778	0.1429	0.0714	0.0000	0.0714	0.2857	0.4286
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	11.000	0.1071	0.3243	0.1429	0.1071	0.0000	0.0714	0.3214	0.3929
season	0.60	18	-	54.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	12.000	12.000	17.000	0.1667	0.3382	0.2407	0.1667	0.0185	0.1111	0.2222	0.3148

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1180
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.1890
predicted_AVG	0.1688
predicted_BB	0.6360
predicted_H	0.5380
predicted_HBP	0.0570
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3178
predicted_R	0.5960
predicted_RBI	0.3320
predicted_SLG	0.2606
predicted_SO	1.0010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.1180	0.0783	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.1890	3.0681	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1688	0.1689	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.6360	0.6558	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5380	0.4689	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0570	0.0570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0560	0.0458	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3178	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5960	0.6414	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3320	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2610	0.2606	0.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9440	1.0010	0.9645	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	641933
playerID	641933
playerName	Tyler O'Neill
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Adley Rutschman (668939) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 27

All-history rows before 20260516: 27

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2642

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.926	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.926	5.000	0.074	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.000	0.236	0.500
predicted_BB	0.259	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.259	0.000	0.741	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.037	0.000	0.963	2.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.000	0.287	0.600
predicted_R	0.481	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.481	0.000	0.519	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.815	0.000	-0.815	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.431	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.509	0.000	-0.009	0.500
predicted_SO	0.704	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.704	3.000	-0.704	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.926	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.259	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.481	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.431	-
predicted_SO	0.704	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.269	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.925	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.242	-0.017
predicted_H	0.867	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.192	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.000
predicted_R	0.478	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.666	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.431	0.000
predicted_SO	0.758	0.054

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.269	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.925	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.242	-0.000
predicted_H	0.874	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.194	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000
predicted_R	0.484	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.674	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.009
predicted_SO	0.759	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.926

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2500	0.1000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.4250	0.2000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.2250
season	0.60	27	-	106.000	28.000	8.000	6.000	22.000	13.000	7.000	19.000	0.2642	0.3130	0.5094	0.2641	0.0566	0.2076	0.0660	0.1792

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9230
predicted_AVG	0.2238
predicted_BB	0.2150
predicted_H	0.8780
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.1940
predicted_OBP	0.2676
predicted_R	0.4740
predicted_RBI	0.6750
predicted_SLG	0.4311
predicted_SO	0.8440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2960	0.2260	0.2687	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9260	3.9230	3.9248	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2238	0.2239	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2590	0.2150	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8780	0.8670	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1940	0.1916	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2676	0.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4810	0.4740	0.4783	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.6750	0.6658	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4310	0.4311	0.4310	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7040	0.8440	0.7585	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	668939
playerID	668939
playerName	Adley Rutschman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Leody Taveras (665750) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 28

All-history rows before 20260516: 28

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2553

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.357	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.357	4.000	-1.357	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.571	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	1.429	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.000	0.136	0.500
predicted_R	0.464	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.464	1.000	0.536	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	0.000	0.357	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.357	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.464	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.326	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.030	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.399	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.516	-0.055
predicted_H	0.667	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.452	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.384	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.796	0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.399	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.515	-0.001
predicted_H	0.673	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.054	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.001
predicted_R	0.458	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.388	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.313	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.797	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.2647
season	0.60	28	-	94.000	24.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	18.000	13.000	16.000	21.000	0.2553	0.3636	0.3936	0.2553	0.0213	0.1915	0.1702	0.2234

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0200
predicted_AB	3.4650
predicted_AVG	0.2188
predicted_BB	0.4290
predicted_H	0.7580
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.3044
predicted_R	0.4340
predicted_RBI	0.4370
predicted_SLG	0.3255
predicted_SO	0.8680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1540	0.1693	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0200	0.0298	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3570	3.4650	3.3988	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2188	0.2189	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.4290	0.5160	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7580	0.6673	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0590	0.0535	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3044	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4640	0.4340	0.4524	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4370	0.3837	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3260	0.3255	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8680	0.7957	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	665750
playerID	665750
playerName	Leody Taveras
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Coby Mayo (691723) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 34

All-history rows before 20260516: 34

System season_avg: 0.1800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1802

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.265	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.265	3.000	-1.265	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.180	0.333	0.320	0.167
predicted_BB	0.294	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	1.706	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.588	1.000	0.412	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.254	0.500	0.496	0.250
predicted_R	0.324	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.324	0.000	0.676	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.441	0.000	1.559	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.383	2.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.324	0.333	1.676	1.667
predicted_SO	1.118	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.118	2.000	-1.118	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.265	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.324	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.383	-
predicted_SO	1.118	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.267	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.296	0.002
predicted_H	0.643	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.074	-
predicted_HR	0.119	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.340	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.461	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.383	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.131	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.267	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.296	-0.000
predicted_H	0.648	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.074	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.031
predicted_R	0.344	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.467	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.348	-0.034
predicted_SO	1.132	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2857	0.4118	0.5714	0.2857	0.0714	0.2857	0.1429	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	0.2258	0.2941	0.3548	0.2258	0.0323	0.1290	0.0645	0.3871
season	0.60	34	-	111.000	20.000	4.000	4.000	15.000	11.000	10.000	38.000	0.1802	0.2541	0.3243	0.1802	0.0360	0.1351	0.0901	0.3423

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2690
predicted_AVG	0.2170
predicted_BB	0.2990
predicted_H	0.7090
predicted_HBP	0.0740
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_OBP	0.2959
predicted_R	0.3650
predicted_RBI	0.5100
predicted_SLG	0.3827
predicted_SO	1.1500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1420	0.1274	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2650	3.2690	3.2666	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2170	0.2170	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.2990	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7090	0.6428	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0740	0.0740	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1320	0.1186	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2959	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3240	0.3650	0.3401	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5100	0.4614	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3830	0.3827	0.3829	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1180	1.1500	1.1306	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	691723
playerID	691723
playerName	Coby Mayo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Jeremiah Jackson (669236) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 36

All-history rows before 20260516: 36

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2424

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2420

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.333	0.008	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.261	0.250	-0.011	0.000
predicted_R	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.694	1.000	-0.694	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.667	-0.159	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.806	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.806	0.000	0.194	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.083	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.278	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.806	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.661	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.106	0.023
predicted_H	0.728	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.108	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.000
predicted_R	0.262	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.497	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	0.796	-0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.661	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.106	-0.000
predicted_H	0.734	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.109	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.223	-0.028
predicted_R	0.265	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.503	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.325	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.797	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2105	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1892	0.2051	0.3243	0.1892	0.0270	0.1622	0.0270	0.1622
season	0.60	36	-	132.000	32.000	4.000	6.000	25.000	10.000	3.000	29.000	0.2424	0.2609	0.4091	0.2424	0.0454	0.1894	0.0227	0.2197

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6520
predicted_AVG	0.2231
predicted_BB	0.1410
predicted_H	0.8150
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1190
predicted_OBP	0.2514
predicted_R	0.2370
predicted_RBI	0.5540
predicted_SLG	0.3640
predicted_SO	0.7810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1530	0.1277	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.6520	3.6610	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2231	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0830	0.1410	0.1061	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8150	0.7277	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1190	0.1076	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2514	0.2512	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2780	0.2370	0.2617	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5540	0.4974	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3640	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8060	0.7810	0.7961	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	669236
playerID	669236
playerName	Jeremiah Jackson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2645

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.318	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.318	0.000	0.682	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.523	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.523	4.000	1.477	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.250	-0.065	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.977	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.977	1.000	-0.977	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.932	1.000	0.068	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.425	0.400	-0.225	-0.200
predicted_R	0.636	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.374	0.250	0.026	0.150
predicted_SO	0.795	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.795	0.000	1.205	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.318	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.523	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.977	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.411	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	0.795	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.285	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.477	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.982	0.005
predicted_H	0.841	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.000
predicted_R	0.634	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.197	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.825	0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.285	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.477	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.002
predicted_BB	0.981	-0.001
predicted_H	0.848	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.410	-0.001
predicted_R	0.641	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.015
predicted_SO	0.826	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	0.2500	0.4286	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.3125	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	9.000	14.000	11.000	0.1667	0.4318	0.2000	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.4667	0.3667
season	0.60	44	-	155.000	41.000	14.000	1.000	12.000	28.000	43.000	35.000	0.2645	0.4250	0.3742	0.2645	0.0065	0.0774	0.2774	0.2258

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2390
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4120
predicted_AVG	0.2423
predicted_BB	0.9890
predicted_H	0.8270
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.4112
predicted_R	0.6310
predicted_RBI	0.1930
predicted_SLG	0.3358
predicted_SO	0.8680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3180	0.2390	0.2855	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5230	3.4120	3.4773	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2423	0.2421	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9770	0.9890	0.9819	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8270	0.8405	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0260	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4110	0.4112	0.4111	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.6310	0.6339	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.1930	0.1971	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3358	0.3359	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7950	0.8680	0.8251	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 45

All-history rows before 20260516: 45

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2130

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2490

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.756	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.756	4.000	0.244	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.000	-0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.467	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.000	-0.104	0.200
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.511	0.000	-0.511	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.414	0.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_SO	1.044	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.044	1.000	0.956	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.756	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.366	-
predicted_SO	1.044	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.772	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.405	-0.062
predicted_H	0.758	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000
predicted_R	0.552	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.483	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.000
predicted_SO	1.028	-0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.772	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.405	-0.001
predicted_H	0.764	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.137	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.012
predicted_R	0.558	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.488	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.366	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.029	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	2.000	10.000	0.2051	0.2439	0.4103	0.2051	0.0513	0.2051	0.0513	0.2564
season	0.60	45	-	169.000	36.000	10.000	8.000	23.000	27.000	21.000	47.000	0.2130	0.3037	0.4142	0.2130	0.0473	0.1361	0.1243	0.2781

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7940
predicted_AVG	0.2063
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_H	0.7830
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.2684
predicted_R	0.4820
predicted_RBI	0.5010
predicted_SLG	0.3665
predicted_SO	1.0040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1740	0.2023	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7560	3.7940	3.7716	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2063	0.2061	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.3160	0.4050	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7830	0.7576	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1430	0.1353	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2684	0.2682	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.4820	0.5516	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5010	0.4827	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3660	0.3665	0.3662	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0440	1.0040	1.0276	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.2020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2021

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	1.000	0.818	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	4.380	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.273	5.000	0.727	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.202	0.400	-0.002	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.295	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.864	2.000	0.136	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.256	0.400	-0.056	-0.200
predicted_R	0.523	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.523	0.000	-0.523	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.399	0.600	0.001	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.318	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.318	1.000	-1.318	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	4.380	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.295	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.241	-
predicted_R	0.523	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	1.318	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.003
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.314	-0.066
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.000
predicted_BB	0.260	-0.035
predicted_H	0.869	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.127	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.000
predicted_R	0.448	-0.076
predicted_RBI	0.454	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.000
predicted_SO	1.211	-0.107

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	4.314	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.001
predicted_BB	0.260	-0.000
predicted_H	0.876	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.129	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.007
predicted_R	0.453	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.004
predicted_SO	1.212	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 4.380

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.0952	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	44.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	0.1818	0.2000	0.2273	0.1818	0.0000	0.0682	0.0227	0.2046
season	0.60	44	-	188.000	38.000	8.000	1.000	9.000	22.000	23.000	13.000	58.000	0.2021	0.2562	0.3989	0.2021	0.0479	0.1170	0.0692	0.3085

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	4.2210
predicted_AVG	0.2019
predicted_BB	0.2100
predicted_H	0.8520
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.2413
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.4460
predicted_SLG	0.3404
predicted_SO	1.0580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1880	0.1845	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3800	4.2210	4.3144	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2019	0.2020	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2950	0.2100	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8520	0.8685	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1230	0.1271	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2410	0.2413	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5230	0.3400	0.4475	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4460	0.4542	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3404	0.3402	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3180	1.0580	1.2108	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.202

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Chris Bassitt (605135) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 8

All-history rows before 20260516: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.250	1.000	0.750	2.000
predicted_ER	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_ER	2.750	1.000	3.250	5.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	6.000	4.000	0.000	2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.575	6.000	-0.375	-1.800
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	3.250	6.000	-0.250	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	11.000	29.000	11.000	21.000	2.000	3.6667	1.4815	0.4074	1.0741	0.4074	0.7778	0.0741
last_10	0.35	8	38.000	22.000	48.000	18.000	26.000	3.000	5.2105	1.7368	0.5789	1.2632	0.4737	0.6842	0.0790
season	0.20	8	38.000	22.000	48.000	18.000	26.000	3.000	5.2105	1.7368	0.5789	1.2632	0.4737	0.6842	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0810
predicted_ER	2.3530
predicted_ERA	4.1736
predicted_H	5.3740
predicted_HR	0.4890
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.2020
predicted_WHIP	1.4691

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.0810	2.5520	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	6.0000	2.3530	4.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1736	4.1736	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	5.3740	5.6948	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4890	0.7509	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.2020	3.5860	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4691	1.4691	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	6
R	6
ER	6
BB	3
SO	3
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.21
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	605135
playerID	605135
playerName	Chris Bassitt
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dietrich Enns (608650) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.089	1.000	0.011	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.222	0.000	-0.222	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	0.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.0000	1.1053	0.0000	0.6316	0.4737	0.4737
last_10	0.35	9	11.200	2.000	7.000	8.000	11.000	1.5429	1.2857	0.1714	0.6000	0.6857	0.9429
season	0.20	9	11.200	2.000	7.000	8.000	11.000	1.5429	1.2857	0.1714	0.6000	0.6857	0.9429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5810
predicted_ER	0.4530
predicted_ERA	3.0560
predicted_H	1.1170
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1470
predicted_WHIP	1.2734

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5810	0.2099	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4530	0.1637	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0560	3.0560	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1170	0.4036	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1180	0.0426	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1470	1.0531	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2734	1.2734	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	608650
playerID	608650
playerName	Dietrich Enns
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.050	0.000	0.950	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.880	1.000	0.120	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.100	2.000	-0.100	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000	0.0000	0.5625	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	1.0000	0.5556	0.1111	0.1111	0.4444	1.3333	0.1111
season	0.20	20	19.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	22.000	1.000	0.4737	0.4211	0.0526	0.0526	0.3684	1.1579	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4240
predicted_ER	0.2870
predicted_ERA	2.5833
predicted_H	0.5560
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0990
predicted_WHIP	0.9804

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4240	0.1735	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2870	0.1175	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5833	2.5833	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5560	0.8183	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0990	1.0405	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9804	0.9804	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.47
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Anthony Nunez (689296) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.895	1.000	-0.895	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.979	1.000	0.021	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	1.000	-0.158	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	3.1765	1.4118	0.3529	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	5.000	11.000	4.000	11.000	3.000	3.9706	1.3235	0.4412	0.9706	0.3529	0.9706	0.2647
season	0.20	18	20.000	6.000	15.000	5.000	22.000	4.000	2.7000	1.0000	0.3000	0.7500	0.2500	1.1000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2930
predicted_ER	0.3460
predicted_ERA	3.8268
predicted_H	0.7740
predicted_HR	0.1640
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7500
predicted_WHIP	1.3101

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2930	0.1215	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3460	0.1435	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8268	3.8268	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7740	0.3209	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1640	0.0680	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7500	0.8963	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3101	1.3101	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.05
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	689296
playerID	689296
playerName	Anthony Nunez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Home Team: WAS

Jorbit Vivas (678391) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 25

All-history rows before 20260516: 25

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2603

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.920	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.920	1.000	0.080	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.000	0.073	0.333
predicted_BB	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.320	2.000	-0.320	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.760	0.000	0.240	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.667	-0.020	-0.333
predicted_R	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.520	0.000	0.480	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.880	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.312	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.315	0.000	0.018	0.333
predicted_SO	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.920	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.320	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.520	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.312	-
predicted_SO	0.440	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.987	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000
predicted_BB	0.317	-0.003
predicted_H	0.632	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.063	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.000
predicted_R	0.487	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.312	0.000
predicted_SO	0.477	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.987	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.319	0.001
predicted_H	0.644	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.063	0.000
predicted_HR	0.023	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.023
predicted_R	0.501	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.144	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.293	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.475	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.1538	0.2667	0.2308	0.1538	0.0000	0.1538	0.1538
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2069	0.2581	0.2414	0.2069	0.0000	0.0690	0.1724
season	0.60	25	-	73.000	19.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	8.000	11.000	0.2603	0.3529	0.3151	0.2603	0.0411	0.1096	0.1507

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1650
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.0990
predicted_AVG	0.2324
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_H	0.7200
predicted_HBP	0.0630
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.3137
predicted_R	0.4320
predicted_RBI	0.1570
predicted_SLG	0.3124
predicted_SO	0.5380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.1650	0.1619	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9200	3.0990	2.9869	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2324	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3200	0.3130	0.3174	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7200	0.6323	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0630	0.0630	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0260	0.0222	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3137	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5200	0.4320	0.4871	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1570	0.1401	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3120	0.3124	0.3121	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4400	0.5380	0.4766	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-3B
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	678391
playerID	678391
playerName	Jorbit Vivas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Nasim Nuñez (683083) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 38

All-history rows before 20260516: 38

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2033

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2030

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.237	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.237	4.000	-0.237	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.000	-0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.658	0.000	-0.658	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.000	-0.062	0.250
predicted_R	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.234	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.228	0.000	-0.228	0.000
predicted_SO	0.763	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.763	1.000	0.237	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.237	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.234	-
predicted_SO	0.763	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	0.005
predicted_3B	0.029	0.003
predicted_AB	3.218	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.497	-0.003
predicted_H	0.541	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.394	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.298	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.234	0.000
predicted_SO	0.785	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.218	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.499	0.002
predicted_H	0.551	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.019	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.013
predicted_R	0.405	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.306	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.217	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.782	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.0714	0.2353	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.2143	0.3571
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	0.1786	0.2941	0.2500	0.1786	0.1429	0.1786	0.2500
season	0.60	38	-	123.000	25.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	16.000	19.000	29.000	0.2033	0.3125	0.2276	0.2032	0.1138	0.1545	0.2358

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0390
predicted_3B	0.0340
predicted_AB	3.1890
predicted_AVG	0.1844
predicted_BB	0.4930
predicted_H	0.5880
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.2954
predicted_R	0.3530
predicted_RBI	0.3240
predicted_SLG	0.2342
predicted_SO	0.8170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0260	0.0390	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0340	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2370	3.1890	3.2178	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1844	0.1842	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4930	0.4972	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.5880	0.5412	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0180	0.0192	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2954	0.2952	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.3530	0.3938	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3240	0.2976	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2340	0.2342	0.2341	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7630	0.8170	0.7846	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-SS
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	683083
playerID	683083
playerName	Nasim Nuñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2743

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.977	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.977	4.000	0.023	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.750	0.226	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.091	3.000	0.909	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.159	1.000	0.841	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.750	0.165	-0.250
predicted_R	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.636	1.000	0.364	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	2.000	1.455	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.632	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.463	1.750	0.787	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.773	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.773	0.000	0.227	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.977	-
predicted_AVG	0.323	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.632	-
predicted_SO	0.773	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.963	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.000
predicted_BB	0.330	-0.034
predicted_H	1.201	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.035	-
predicted_HR	0.284	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.000
predicted_R	0.652	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.774	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.632	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.753	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.963	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.332	0.001
predicted_H	1.223	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.035	0.000
predicted_HR	0.289	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.362	-0.008
predicted_R	0.670	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.796	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.600	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.751	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.073

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.977

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	0.4762	0.4762	1.1429	0.4762	0.1905	0.4286	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	14.000	4.000	4.000	10.000	8.000	3.000	6.000	0.3784	0.4186	0.8108	0.3784	0.1081	0.2703	0.0811	0.1622
season	0.60	44	-	175.000	48.000	12.000	7.000	24.000	28.000	16.000	34.000	0.2743	0.3351	0.4629	0.2743	0.0400	0.1371	0.0914	0.1943

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3040
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9440
predicted_AVG	0.3232
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	1.2750
predicted_HBP	0.0350
predicted_HR	0.3030
predicted_OBP	0.3700
predicted_R	0.6740
predicted_RBI	0.8240
predicted_SLG	0.6318
predicted_SO	0.7250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.3040	0.2857	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9770	3.9440	3.9634	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3230	0.3232	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.2820	0.3303	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.2750	1.2014	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0350	0.0350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.3030	0.2836	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3700	0.3700	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.6740	0.6516	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.8240	0.7745	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6320	0.6318	0.6319	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7730	0.7250	0.7533	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2930

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.651	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.651	4.000	0.349	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.250	-0.043	0.000
predicted_BB	0.465	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.465	0.000	-0.465	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.070	1.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.250	-0.139	0.000
predicted_R	0.605	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.605	1.000	0.395	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.837	0.000	0.163	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.529	0.250	-0.279	0.000
predicted_SO	0.837	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.837	1.000	-0.837	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.651	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.465	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.605	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.477	-
predicted_SO	0.837	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.215	0.029
predicted_3B	0.026	0.003
predicted_AB	3.694	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.440	-0.025
predicted_H	1.000	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.078	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.605	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.628	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.000
predicted_SO	0.916	0.079

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.215	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.694	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.441	0.002
predicted_H	1.018	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.078	0.000
predicted_HR	0.138	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.004
predicted_R	0.622	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.646	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.460	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.912	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.4210
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.5000	0.2750	0.0250	0.2250	0.0750	0.3000
season	0.60	43	-	157.000	46.000	8.000	1.000	9.000	36.000	26.000	20.000	36.000	0.2930	0.3892	0.5287	0.2930	0.0573	0.2293	0.1274	0.2293

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2560
predicted_3B	0.0300
predicted_AB	3.7570
predicted_AVG	0.2779
predicted_BB	0.4030
predicted_H	1.0440
predicted_HBP	0.0780
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3569
predicted_R	0.6050
predicted_RBI	0.6550
predicted_SLG	0.4774
predicted_SO	1.0290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.2560	0.2146	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0300	0.0259	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6510	3.7570	3.6944	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2779	0.2780	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4650	0.4030	0.4396	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.0440	1.0003	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0780	0.0780	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1440	0.1357	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3569	0.3570	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6050	0.6050	0.6050	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6550	0.6284	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4770	0.4774	0.4772	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8370	1.0290	0.9156	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 45

All-history rows before 20260516: 45

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2339

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.890	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.250	0.099	0.083
predicted_BB	0.822	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.822	0.000	0.178	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.250	0.121	0.250
predicted_R	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.644	0.000	-0.644	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.509	0.250	-0.175	0.083
predicted_SO	1.489	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.489	1.000	0.511	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.890	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.822	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.471	-
predicted_SO	1.489	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.249	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.845	-0.045
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.748	-0.074
predicted_H	0.860	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.057	-
predicted_HR	0.228	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.343	-0.000
predicted_R	0.726	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.526	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.471	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.436	-0.053

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.249	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.845	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.004
predicted_BB	0.750	0.003
predicted_H	0.875	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.232	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.011
predicted_R	0.747	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.541	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.474	0.003
predicted_SO	1.431	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.890

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.3684	0.1579	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	13.000	0.2432	0.3636	0.5135	0.2432	0.0541	0.1351	0.1622	0.3513
season	0.60	45	-	171.000	40.000	11.000	12.000	29.000	36.000	37.000	67.000	0.2339	0.3791	0.5088	0.2339	0.0702	0.1696	0.2164	0.3918

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2570
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7820
predicted_AVG	0.2235
predicted_BB	0.6420
predicted_H	0.8450
predicted_HBP	0.0570
predicted_HR	0.2250
predicted_OBP	0.3425
predicted_R	0.6220
predicted_RBI	0.5200
predicted_SLG	0.4708
predicted_SO	1.3610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.2570	0.2494	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8900	3.7820	3.8453	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2235	0.2238	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8220	0.6420	0.7476	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.8450	0.8597	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0570	0.0570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2250	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3425	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	0.6220	0.7264	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5200	0.5259	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4710	0.4708	0.4709	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4890	1.3610	1.4361	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Luis García Jr. (671277) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 32

All-history rows before 20260516: 32

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2672

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	4.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.969	0.000	-0.969	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.000	-0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.656	0.000	-0.656	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.539	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.448	0.000	-0.448	0.000
predicted_SO	0.625	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	1.000	1.375	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.625	-
predicted_AVG	0.296	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.539	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.007
predicted_3B	0.069	0.007
predicted_AB	3.673	0.048
predicted_AVG	0.296	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.208	0.020
predicted_H	1.085	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.161	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.338	-0.000
predicted_R	0.517	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.631	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.539	0.000
predicted_SO	0.640	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.069	0.000
predicted_AB	3.673	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.005
predicted_BB	0.209	0.001
predicted_H	1.104	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.164	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.001
predicted_R	0.532	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.649	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.542	0.003
predicted_SO	0.638	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.301 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.4500	0.5000	0.9500	0.4500	0.1000	0.2500	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.2895	0.3250	0.5789	0.2895	0.0526	0.1316	0.0526	0.2105
season	0.60	32	-	116.000	31.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	21.000	16.000	6.000	20.000	0.2672	0.3008	0.4483	0.2672	0.0259	0.1810	0.0517	0.1724

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2670
predicted_3B	0.0800
predicted_AB	3.7470
predicted_AVG	0.2956
predicted_BB	0.2400
predicted_H	1.1080
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1620
predicted_OBP	0.3376
predicted_R	0.5440
predicted_RBI	0.6480
predicted_SLG	0.5394
predicted_SO	0.6640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2670	0.2567	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0800	0.0691	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6250	3.7470	3.6729	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2960	0.2956	0.2958	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.2400	0.2084	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.1080	1.0849	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1620	0.1608	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3376	0.3378	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5440	0.5173	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6480	0.6310	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5390	0.5394	0.5392	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.6640	0.6403	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	671277
playerID	671277
playerName	Luis García Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 0

All-history rows before 20260516: 0

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.750	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.893	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.179	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	-
predicted_SO	0.893	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.748	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.196	0.017
predicted_H	0.866	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.071	-
predicted_HR	0.091	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.658	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.375	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.748	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.001
predicted_BB	0.197	0.001
predicted_H	0.882	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.092	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.274	-0.018
predicted_R	0.677	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.385	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.349	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.906	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.1579	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.1944	0.2750	0.3056	0.1944	0.0278	0.0556	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.60	28	-	105.000	30.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	20.000	5.000	25.000	0.2857	0.3243	0.4095	0.2857	0.0286	0.1238	0.0476	0.2381

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7440
predicted_AVG	0.2340
predicted_BB	0.2240
predicted_H	0.8760
predicted_HBP	0.0710
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_OBP	0.2914
predicted_R	0.5700
predicted_RBI	0.3820
predicted_SLG	0.3503
predicted_SO	0.9340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1520	0.1465	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7440	3.7477	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2340	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1790	0.2240	0.1964	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8760	0.8662	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0710	0.0710	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0920	0.0908	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2914	0.2912	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.5700	0.6582	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3820	0.3747	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3500	0.3503	0.3501	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8930	0.9340	0.9089	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Keibert Ruiz (660688) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 23

All-history rows before 20260516: 23

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2051

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.391	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.391	4.000	-0.391	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.250	0.128	0.083
predicted_BB	0.043	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.043	0.000	0.957	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.696	1.000	0.304	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.130	1.000	-0.130	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.222	0.250	0.278	0.250
predicted_R	0.391	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.391	1.000	-0.391	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.565	2.000	-0.565	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.423	1.000	-0.090	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.609	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.609	1.000	-0.609	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.348	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.391	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.043	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.249	-
predicted_R	0.391	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.471	-
predicted_SO	0.609	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.353	0.005
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.476	0.085
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.061	0.019
predicted_H	0.698	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.153	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.000
predicted_R	0.437	0.046
predicted_RBI	0.543	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.000
predicted_SO	0.657	0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.353	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.476	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.155	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.218	-0.031
predicted_R	0.449	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.558	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.441	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.655	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.7000	0.2500	0.1000	0.3000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.5278	0.2222	0.0556	0.1667	0.0000	0.1944
season	0.60	23	-	78.000	16.000	8.000	3.000	13.000	9.000	1.000	14.000	0.2051	0.2222	0.4231	0.2051	0.0385	0.1667	0.0128	0.1795

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3610
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6210
predicted_AVG	0.2246
predicted_BB	0.0930
predicted_H	0.8130
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1740
predicted_OBP	0.2487
predicted_R	0.5150
predicted_RBI	0.6320
predicted_SLG	0.4710
predicted_SO	0.7390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3480	0.3610	0.3528	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3910	3.6210	3.4763	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2246	0.2249	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0430	0.0930	0.0615	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8130	0.6979	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1740	0.1526	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2490	0.2487	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3910	0.5150	0.4370	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.6320	0.5427	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4710	0.4710	0.4710	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6090	0.7390	0.6572	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	660688
playerID	660688
playerName	Keibert Ruiz
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jacob Young (696285) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 39

All-history rows before 20260516: 39

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2095

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.795	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.795	3.000	-0.795	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.000	0.124	0.333
predicted_BB	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.795	0.000	0.205	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.000	0.074	0.333
predicted_R	0.487	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.487	0.000	0.513	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.590	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.270	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.297	0.000	0.036	0.333
predicted_SO	0.692	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.795	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.205	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.252	-
predicted_R	0.487	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.270	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.796	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.230	0.025
predicted_H	0.641	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.000
predicted_R	0.516	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.283	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.270	0.000
predicted_SO	0.643	-0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.796	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.230	0.001
predicted_H	0.653	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.048	0.000
predicted_HR	0.067	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.219	-0.033
predicted_R	0.531	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.291	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.250	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.640	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.2368	0.1579	0.0263	0.0526	0.0790	0.0790
season	0.60	39	-	148.000	31.000	4.000	3.000	16.000	19.000	8.000	27.000	0.2095	0.2595	0.2973	0.2095	0.0203	0.1081	0.0541	0.1824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7970
predicted_AVG	0.1888
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_H	0.7170
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.2516
predicted_R	0.5600
predicted_RBI	0.3160
predicted_SLG	0.2704
predicted_SO	0.5700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.0800	0.0937	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7950	3.7970	3.7958	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1888	0.1889	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2050	0.2660	0.2296	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7170	0.6412	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0750	0.0660	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2520	0.2516	0.2518	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4870	0.5600	0.5164	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3160	0.2826	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2700	0.2704	0.2702	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.5700	0.6428	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	696285
playerID	696285
playerName	Jacob Young
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Cade Cavalli (676917) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	5.111	4.000	-1.111	0.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.300	5.200	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	4.889	4.000	-0.889	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.200	10.000	31.000	6.000	31.000	1.000	3.6486	1.5000	0.4054	1.2568	0.2432	1.2568	0.0405
last_10	0.35	9	40.100	18.000	46.000	18.000	44.000	1.000	4.0165	1.5868	0.4463	1.1405	0.4463	1.0909	0.0248
season	0.20	9	40.100	18.000	46.000	18.000	44.000	1.000	4.0165	1.5868	0.4463	1.1405	0.4463	1.0909	0.0248

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6150
predicted_ER	2.0630
predicted_ERA	3.9357
predicted_H	5.2560
predicted_HR	0.3220
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	5.2280
predicted_WHIP	1.4569

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.6150	2.3087	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0630	2.0314	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9357	3.9357	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	5.2560	3.1243	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3220	0.1607	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.2280	4.6129	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4569	1.4569	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	4
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.02
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	3
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676917
playerID	676917
playerName	Cade Cavalli
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 13

All-history rows before 20260516: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.938	2.200	-0.838	-1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.615	3.000	-0.615	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	1.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.9310	0.2069	0.8276	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	20.200	6.000	16.000	4.000	17.000	2.000	2.6129	0.9677	0.2903	0.7742	0.1935	0.8226	0.0968
season	0.20	13	28.000	10.000	26.000	6.000	21.000	3.000	3.2143	1.1429	0.3571	0.9286	0.2143	0.7500	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4840
predicted_ER	0.5670
predicted_ERA	3.0279
predicted_H	1.5250
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4810
predicted_WHIP	1.1929

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4840	0.2178	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5670	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0279	3.0279	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5250	0.6864	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1520	0.0684	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4810	1.2165	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1929	1.1929	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	33

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	36
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	2.667	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.056	0.000	-0.056	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.744	0.200	0.456	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	1.2500	0.7500	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	11.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	5.0000	1.5556	0.5556	1.2222	0.3333	1.0000	0.0000
season	0.20	18	16.200	8.000	19.000	6.000	18.000	1.000	4.3200	1.5000	0.4800	1.1400	0.3600	1.0800	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4120
predicted_ER	0.5410
predicted_ERA	5.1811
predicted_H	0.9870
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9210
predicted_WHIP	1.4887

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.4120	1.9755	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5410	0.8183	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1811	5.1811	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9870	1.5990	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0780	0.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9210	0.9687	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4887	1.4887	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	1
HR	0
BF	9
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.32
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 21

All-history rows before 20260516: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.762	1.000	-0.762	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.786	1.000	-0.586	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	0.6429	0.8571	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	0.000	1.9286	1.1786	0.2143	0.6429	0.5357	0.8571	0.0000
season	0.20	21	20.000	7.000	16.000	12.000	15.000	3.000	3.1500	1.4000	0.3500	0.8000	0.6000	0.7500	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4230
predicted_ER	0.2640
predicted_ERA	2.9170
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7700
predicted_WHIP	1.3406

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4230	0.7608	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2640	0.1095	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9170	2.9170	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6690	0.2774	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0690	0.0286	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7700	0.3193	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3406	1.3406	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.15
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 11

All-history rows before 20260516: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.909	1.000	0.091	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.809	0.100	-0.609	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.091	1.000	-0.091	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	1.9286	0.0000	0.8571	1.0714	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	0.000	8.000	8.000	11.000	0.000	0.0000	1.6000	0.0000	0.8000	0.8000	1.1000	0.0000
season	0.20	17	18.100	4.000	18.000	14.000	18.000	1.000	1.9636	1.7455	0.2182	0.9818	0.7636	0.9818	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4890
predicted_ER	0.2330
predicted_ERA	2.5941
predicted_H	0.7320
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8410
predicted_WHIP	1.5122

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4890	0.1984	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2330	0.0945	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5941	2.5941	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.7320	2.0800	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0640	0.6203	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8410	0.9355	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5122	1.5122	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.96
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

20260516_BOS@ATL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.64, "home_win_probability": 0.64, "away_win_probability": 0.36, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 1 - 5 ATL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 1 - 5 ATL", "confidence": 0.64, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BOS 1 - 5 ATL", "winner": "ATL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 0, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BOS 0 - 6 ATL", "winner": "ATL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	BOS 1 - 5 ATL	ATL	0.640	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	BOS 0 - 6 ATL	ATL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away BOS	5-5	0.500	3.30	2.80	5	2L	cold	strong
Home ATL	6-4	0.600	3.50	2.40	11	1W	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away BOS	18-26	0.409	-14	-0.318	True
Home ATL	31-14	0.689	92	2.044	True
Signal	-	-	2.363	2.782	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-15	BOS @ ATL	2 - 3	ATL	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target BOS	-	-	1	-	-	-	-
Game target ATL	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized BOS	33	8	0	0	0	0	7
Player finalized ATL	33	9	5	0	4	0	8
Player model fractional BOS	33.08	6.79	3.04	0.69	2.77	2.70	7.09
Player model fractional ATL	31.87	7.50	4.24	1.36	4.18	2.18	7.31
Simulation box BOS	30	3	0	0	0	1	9
Simulation box ATL	33	9	6	2	6	1	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away BOS	Starter	Payton Tolle	5.10	3	3	7	0	3.57	1.13	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Aroldis Chapman	2	3	2	2	1	2.70	1.10	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Garrett Whitlock	0.20	0	1	0	0	3.86	1.13	True
Home ATL	Starter	Bryce Elder	6.20	0	7	2	0	2.97	1.11	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Raisel Iglesias	1	0	1	1	0	2.72	1.14	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Robert Suarez	1	0	0	0	0	2.41	1.12	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Dylan Lee	0.10	0	1	0	1	2.49	0.89	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: BOS

Caleb Durbin (702332) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 40

All-history rows before 20260516: 40

System season_avg: 0.1700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1704

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1700

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.375	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.375	2.000	-0.375	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.170	0.000	-0.170	0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.575	0.000	-0.575	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.253	0.000	-0.253	0.000
predicted_R	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.325	0.000	-0.325	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.252	0.000	-0.252	0.000
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.375	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.275	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.249	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.257	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.320	-0.055
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.234	-0.041
predicted_H	0.492	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.177	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.000
predicted_R	0.312	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.254	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.257	0.000
predicted_SO	0.669	0.069

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.320	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.136	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.227	-0.006
predicted_H	0.451	-0.040
predicted_HBP	0.177	0.000
predicted_HR	0.021	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.191	-0.057
predicted_R	0.268	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.219	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.216	-0.041
predicted_SO	0.688	0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.134 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.0833	0.2143	0.1667	0.0833	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4167
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	0.1613	0.2121	0.2258	0.1613	0.0000	0.0968	0.0000	0.2581
season	0.60	40	-	135.000	23.000	8.000	1.000	13.000	14.000	11.000	24.000	0.1704	0.2533	0.2519	0.1704	0.0074	0.0963	0.0815	0.1778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2010
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2370
predicted_AVG	0.1666
predicted_BB	0.1720
predicted_H	0.5390
predicted_HBP	0.1770
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2486
predicted_R	0.2550
predicted_RBI	0.2750
predicted_SLG	0.2571
predicted_SO	0.7730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2010	0.2004	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3750	3.2370	3.3196	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1666	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2750	0.1720	0.2337	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.5390	0.4917	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1770	0.1770	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0236	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2490	0.2486	0.2488	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.2550	0.3119	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2750	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2570	0.2571	0.2570	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.7730	0.6694	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	702332
playerID	702332
playerName	Caleb Durbin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Marcelo Mayer (691785) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 33

All-history rows before 20260516: 33

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.273	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.273	3.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.333	-0.222	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	1.000	-0.303	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.727	1.000	-0.727	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	1.000	-0.061	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.500	-0.298	-0.500
predicted_R	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.242	1.000	-0.242	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.324	1.333	-0.324	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.667	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	2.333	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.273	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.242	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.337	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.336	0.063
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	0.005
predicted_H	0.649	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.088	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.261	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.252	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.691	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.336	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.178	-0.037
predicted_BB	0.300	-0.009
predicted_H	0.596	-0.053
predicted_HBP	0.052	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.246	-0.045
predicted_R	0.224	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.217	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.291	-0.045
predicted_SO	0.710	0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.2000	0.2821	0.2857	0.2000	0.0286	0.0571	0.0857	0.2571
season	0.60	33	-	108.000	24.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	10.000	22.000	0.2222	0.2975	0.3241	0.2222	0.0185	0.0833	0.0926	0.2037

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4340
predicted_AVG	0.2156
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.2911
predicted_R	0.2900
predicted_RBI	0.2860
predicted_SLG	0.3365
predicted_SO	0.7280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1090	0.1351	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2730	3.4340	3.3361	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2156	0.2158	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.3160	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7400	0.6488	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1010	0.0882	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2911	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2420	0.2900	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2860	0.2519	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3370	0.3365	0.3368	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7280	0.6909	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	691785
playerID	691785
playerName	Marcelo Mayer
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Willson Contreras (575929) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2449

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3240

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.585	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.585	4.000	0.415	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.000	-0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.488	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.878	0.000	-0.878	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.000	-0.356	0.000
predicted_R	0.463	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.463	0.000	-0.463	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.561	0.000	-0.561	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.442	0.000	-0.442	0.000
predicted_SO	1.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.220	2.000	-0.220	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.585	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.488	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.463	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	-
predicted_SO	1.220	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.607	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.478	-0.010
predicted_H	0.742	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.093	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.421	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.391	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.000
predicted_SO	1.183	-0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.607	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.465	-0.013
predicted_H	0.681	-0.061
predicted_HBP	0.093	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.029
predicted_R	0.362	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.337	-0.055
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.042
predicted_SO	1.215	0.033

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	12.000	0.1892	0.2889	0.3243	0.1892	0.0270	0.0811	0.1622	0.3243
season	0.60	41	-	147.000	36.000	5.000	8.000	23.000	19.000	20.000	50.000	0.2449	0.3559	0.4422	0.2449	0.0544	0.1565	0.1361	0.3401

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6380
predicted_AVG	0.2123
predicted_BB	0.4630
predicted_H	0.7730
predicted_HBP	0.0930
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.3104
predicted_R	0.3600
predicted_RBI	0.4080
predicted_SLG	0.3680
predicted_SO	1.1280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.1570	0.1363	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5850	3.6380	3.6066	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2123	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4880	0.4630	0.4778	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7730	0.7416	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0930	0.0930	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1350	0.1320	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3104	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4630	0.3600	0.4210	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4080	0.3914	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3680	0.3680	0.3680	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2200	1.1280	1.1825	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	575929
playerID	575929
playerName	Willson Contreras
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Ceddanne Rafaela (678882) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 38

All-history rows before 20260516: 38

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2774

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	1.000	-0.132	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.605	3.000	-1.605	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.667	-0.277	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.237	1.000	-0.237	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.105	1.000	-0.105	-1.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.750	-0.015	-0.417
predicted_R	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.409	1.000	-0.409	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.921	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.921	0.000	1.079	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.605	-
predicted_AVG	0.288	-
predicted_BB	0.237	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.358	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.446	-
predicted_SO	0.921	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.006
predicted_3B	0.043	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.631	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.288	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.241	0.004
predicted_H	0.950	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.152	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.000
predicted_R	0.409	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.000
predicted_SO	0.921	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.631	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.047
predicted_BB	0.235	-0.007
predicted_H	0.872	-0.078
predicted_HBP	0.152	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.072
predicted_R	0.352	-0.057
predicted_RBI	0.354	-0.057
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.057
predicted_SO	0.947	0.025

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.5556	0.3333	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.3158	0.3953	0.5000	0.3158	0.0526	0.1842	0.0790	0.2368
season	0.60	38	-	137.000	38.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	9.000	35.000	0.2774	0.3487	0.4088	0.2774	0.0219	0.1095	0.0657	0.2555

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0290
predicted_AB	3.6690
predicted_AVG	0.2876
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_H	1.0550
predicted_HBP	0.1520
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_OBP	0.3579
predicted_R	0.3910
predicted_RBI	0.4570
predicted_SLG	0.4462
predicted_SO	0.9210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.1460	0.1376	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0290	0.0434	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6050	3.6690	3.6307	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2880	0.2876	0.2878	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2370	0.2480	0.2414	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.0550	0.9503	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1520	0.1520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1260	0.1164	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3580	0.3579	0.3580	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.3910	0.4089	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4570	0.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4460	0.4462	0.4461	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9210	0.9210	0.9210	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	678882
playerID	678882
playerName	Ceddanne Rafaela
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3025

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.140	0.000	0.860	1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	4.000	-0.767	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.031	0.333
predicted_BB	0.465	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.465	0.000	0.535	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.140	0.000	-0.140	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.000	0.123	0.500
predicted_R	0.465	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.465	0.000	-0.465	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.442	0.000	-0.442	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.427	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.463	0.000	0.204	0.667
predicted_SO	0.791	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.791	1.000	0.209	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.767	-
predicted_AVG	0.296	-
predicted_BB	0.465	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.353	-
predicted_R	0.465	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.427	-
predicted_SO	0.791	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.787	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000
predicted_BB	0.419	-0.046
predicted_H	1.106	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.000
predicted_R	0.451	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.407	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.427	0.000
predicted_SO	0.790	-0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.787	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.407	-0.012
predicted_H	1.016	-0.091
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.111	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.014
predicted_R	0.388	-0.063
predicted_RBI	0.350	-0.057
predicted_SLG	0.398	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.812	0.022

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.3000	0.3000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	12.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	9.000	0.3158	0.3721	0.4737	0.3158	0.0526	0.1316	0.1053	0.2368
season	0.60	43	-	162.000	49.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	20.000	20.000	34.000	0.3025	0.3770	0.4630	0.3025	0.0370	0.1173	0.1235	0.2099

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0980
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8170
predicted_AVG	0.2961
predicted_BB	0.3520
predicted_H	1.1300
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1250
predicted_OBP	0.3528
predicted_R	0.4310
predicted_RBI	0.4170
predicted_SLG	0.4272
predicted_SO	0.7880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1400	0.0980	0.1228	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7670	3.8170	3.7874	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2960	0.2961	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4650	0.3520	0.4188	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.1300	1.1064	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1250	0.1220	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3530	0.3528	0.3529	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4650	0.4310	0.4511	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4170	0.4069	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4270	0.4272	0.4271	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7910	0.7880	0.7898	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Masataka Yoshida (807799) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.368	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.368	2.000	0.632	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_BB	0.474	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.842	0.000	0.158	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.000	-0.110	0.250
predicted_R	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.297	0.000	-0.047	0.250
predicted_SO	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.368	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.474	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.284	-
predicted_SO	0.316	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.396	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.420	-0.053
predicted_H	0.703	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.102	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.000
predicted_R	0.361	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.199	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.000
predicted_SO	0.342	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.396	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.409	-0.012
predicted_H	0.646	-0.058
predicted_HBP	0.102	0.000
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.030
predicted_R	0.311	-0.050
predicted_RBI	0.171	-0.028
predicted_SLG	0.257	-0.027
predicted_SO	0.352	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.1333	0.2353	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0667	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0294	0.0588
season	0.60	19	-	64.000	16.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3600	0.2969	0.2500	0.0625	0.1406	0.0938

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1160
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4430
predicted_AVG	0.2211
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_H	0.7610
predicted_HBP	0.1020
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.3068
predicted_R	0.3500
predicted_RBI	0.2140
predicted_SLG	0.2842
predicted_SO	0.3880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1160	0.1426	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3680	3.4430	3.3955	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2211	0.2210	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4740	0.3280	0.4205	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7610	0.7033	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1020	0.1020	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3068	0.3069	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.3500	0.3614	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2140	0.1988	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2840	0.2842	0.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3160	0.3880	0.3424	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	807799
playerID	807799
playerName	Masataka Yoshida
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 37

All-history rows before 20260516: 37

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1765

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.250	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.135	3.000	-0.135	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_BB	0.297	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.297	1.000	-0.297	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.730	0.000	-0.730	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.241	0.400	-0.241	-0.400
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.258	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_SO	1.135	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.135	1.000	-0.135	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.159	-
predicted_BB	0.297	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.258	-
predicted_SO	1.135	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.191	-0.059
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.000
predicted_BB	0.290	-0.007
predicted_H	0.669	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.082	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	-0.057
predicted_RBI	0.383	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.258	0.000
predicted_SO	1.139	0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.191	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.147	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.282	-0.008
predicted_H	0.615	-0.055
predicted_HBP	0.082	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.200	-0.028
predicted_R	0.393	-0.064
predicted_RBI	0.330	-0.053
predicted_SLG	0.241	-0.017
predicted_SO	1.170	0.031

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.145 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.250

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.0476	0.1304	0.0476	0.0476	0.0000	0.0000	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	14.000	0.1429	0.2174	0.2381	0.1429	0.0238	0.0714	0.0714	0.3333
season	0.60	37	-	153.000	27.000	6.000	4.000	18.000	19.000	11.000	42.000	0.1765	0.2410	0.2941	0.1765	0.0261	0.1177	0.0719	0.2745

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1280
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1050
predicted_AVG	0.1593
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_H	0.6540
predicted_HBP	0.0820
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_OBP	0.2281
predicted_R	0.3730
predicted_RBI	0.3730
predicted_SLG	0.2582
predicted_SO	1.1440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1280	0.1482	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2500	4.1050	4.1912	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1590	0.1593	0.1591	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2970	0.2800	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.6540	0.6695	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0820	0.0820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0910	0.0904	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2281	0.2280	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.3730	0.4569	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3730	0.3831	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2580	0.2582	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1350	1.1440	1.1386	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Mickey Gasper (681508) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 4

All-history rows before 20260516: 4

System season_avg: 0.4380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4375

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	5.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.438	0.400	-0.438	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_H	1.250	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.750	2.000	-1.750	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.471	0.400	-0.471	-0.400
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.562	0.400	-0.562	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.314	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	1.250	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.455	-
predicted_SO	0.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.445	-0.055
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.966	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.000
predicted_BB	0.048	0.048
predicted_H	1.241	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.108	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.291	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.495	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.000
predicted_SO	0.353	0.103

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.445	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.966	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.047	-0.001
predicted_H	1.139	-0.102
predicted_HBP	0.108	0.000
predicted_HR	0.072	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.070
predicted_R	0.251	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.426	-0.069
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.000
predicted_SO	0.363	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	16.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.4375	0.4706	0.5625	0.4375	0.1250	0.0625
last_10	0.20	4	-	16.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.4375	0.4706	0.5625	0.4375	0.1250	0.0625
season	0.60	4	-	16.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.4375	0.4706	0.5625	0.4375	0.1250	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2920
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.8710
predicted_AVG	0.3139
predicted_BB	0.1840
predicted_H	1.2150
predicted_HBP	0.1080
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.3650
predicted_R	0.4060
predicted_RBI	0.4820
predicted_SLG	0.4552
predicted_SO	0.6430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.2920	0.4452	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8710	3.9660	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3140	0.3139	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1840	0.0484	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2500	1.2150	1.2408	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1080	0.1080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0790	0.0797	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3650	0.3650	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.4060	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.4820	0.4953	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4550	0.4552	0.4551	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2500	0.6430	0.3535	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.438

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	681508
playerID	681508
playerName	Mickey Gasper
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BOS
teamID	4

Andruw Monasterio (655316) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 14

All-history rows before 20260516: 14

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2407

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	4.000	-0.857	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.250	0.093	0.083
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	1.000	0.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.028	0.083
predicted_R	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.500	-0.074	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.786	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	1.000	-0.786	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.429	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.409	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.410	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.849	-0.008
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.334	-0.023
predicted_H	0.847	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.075	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.000
predicted_R	0.564	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.422	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.409	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.814	0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.410	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.849	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.041
predicted_BB	0.324	-0.009
predicted_H	0.778	-0.070
predicted_HBP	0.011	0.000
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.036
predicted_R	0.485	-0.079
predicted_RBI	0.363	-0.059
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.047
predicted_SO	0.837	0.023

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.857

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.4211	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	0.2308	0.2683	0.4359	0.2308	0.0256	0.1538	0.0513	0.2051
season	0.60	14	-	54.000	13.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	5.000	11.000	0.2407	0.3051	0.4074	0.2407	0.0185	0.1296	0.0926	0.2037

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3760
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.8350
predicted_AVG	0.2434
predicted_BB	0.2900
predicted_H	0.9340
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_OBP	0.2996
predicted_R	0.5510
predicted_RBI	0.4630
predicted_SLG	0.4086
predicted_SO	0.8660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4290	0.3760	0.4104	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8570	3.8350	3.8493	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2434	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.2900	0.3335	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9340	0.8471	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0830	0.0746	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.2996	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.5510	0.5640	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4630	0.4221	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4090	0.4086	0.4089	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.8660	0.8141	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	655316
playerID	655316
playerName	Andruw Monasterio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BOS
teamID	4

Payton Tolle (801139) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 4

All-history rows before 20260516: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	0.000	-1.500	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.750	3.000	1.250	0.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	3.500	7.000	3.500	0.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.550	5.000	-0.450	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	6.750	4.000	-3.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	22.200	7.000	14.000	6.000	27.000	2.000	2.7794	0.8824	0.3088	0.6177	0.2647	1.1912	0.0882
last_10	0.35	4	22.200	7.000	14.000	6.000	27.000	2.000	2.7794	0.8824	0.3088	0.6177	0.2647	1.1912	0.0882
season	0.20	4	22.200	7.000	14.000	6.000	27.000	2.000	2.7794	0.8824	0.3088	0.6177	0.2647	1.1912	0.0882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8040
predicted_ER	2.1730
predicted_ERA	3.5679
predicted_H	4.3630
predicted_HR	0.6090
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.8140
predicted_WHIP	1.1251

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.8040	0.7491	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.1730	2.6566	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5679	3.5679	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.3630	5.9050	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6090	0.8376	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.8140	4.1685	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1251	1.1251	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	3
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.78
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	81
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	801139
playerID	801139
playerName	Payton Tolle
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 15

All-history rows before 20260516: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.067	0.000	2.933	3.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.467	0.000	1.533	2.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.947	1.000	1.053	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.400	2.000	0.600	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.2000	0.4000	2.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	0.000	5.000	3.000	18.000	0.0000	0.8276	0.0000	0.5172	0.3103	1.8621
season	0.20	15	14.200	1.000	7.000	5.000	21.000	0.6136	0.8182	0.0682	0.4773	0.3409	1.4318

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3720
predicted_ER	0.3000
predicted_ERA	2.6975
predicted_H	0.7280
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2810
predicted_WHIP	1.0998

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3720	0.7594	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3000	1.9656	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6975	2.6975	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7280	1.5127	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0820	0.6483	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2810	1.7245	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0998	1.0998	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	2
HR	1
BF	9
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 17

All-history rows before 20260516: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.765	0.000	-0.765	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	-0.806	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.294	2.000	-0.294	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.000	3.3750	0.7500	0.3750	0.5625	0.1875	1.6875	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	4.000	8.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	3.4839	0.8710	0.3871	0.7742	0.0968	1.0645	0.0968
season	0.20	17	17.100	6.000	13.000	6.000	22.000	2.000	3.1154	1.0962	0.3462	0.7500	0.3462	1.2692	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1830
predicted_ER	0.2590
predicted_ERA	3.8570
predicted_H	0.5030
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6850
predicted_WHIP	1.1325

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1830	0.0732	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2590	0.1036	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8570	3.8570	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5030	0.2011	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0240	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6850	0.8740	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1325	1.1325	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.12
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Home Team: ATL

Mauricio Dubón (643289) · BATTER · LF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.047	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.047	0.000	0.953	1.000
predicted_AB	3.721	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.721	4.000	0.279	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_BB	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.930	0.000	0.070	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.000	-0.056	0.250
predicted_R	0.442	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.442	0.000	0.558	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.581	0.000	-0.581	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.000	0.356	0.750
predicted_SO	0.721	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.721	1.000	-0.721	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.047	-
predicted_AB	3.721	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.256	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.442	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.721	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.039	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.778	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.238	-0.018
predicted_H	0.758	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.000
predicted_R	0.413	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.597	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.766	0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000
predicted_3B	0.039	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.244	0.007
predicted_H	0.793	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.001
predicted_R	0.449	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.648	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.006
predicted_SO	0.745	-0.021

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.0952	0.0952	0.2857	0.0952	0.0476	0.2381	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.3250	0.2000	0.0250	0.1750	0.0500	0.2500
season	0.60	43	-	160.000	40.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	25.000	19.000	11.000	31.000	0.2500	0.3064	0.3937	0.2500	0.0187	0.1562	0.0688	0.1938

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0270
predicted_AB	3.8620
predicted_AVG	0.2142
predicted_BB	0.2110
predicted_H	0.8270
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_OBP	0.2586
predicted_R	0.3720
predicted_RBI	0.6510
predicted_SLG	0.3637
predicted_SO	0.8320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.2150	0.2257	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0470	0.0270	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7210	3.8620	3.7784	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2142	0.2141	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2560	0.2110	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8270	0.7576	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1030	0.0953	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2586	0.2588	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4420	0.3720	0.4135	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6510	0.5970	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3637	0.3639	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7210	0.8320	0.7662	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	643289
playerID	643289
playerName	Mauricio Dubón
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ozzie Albies (645277) · BATTER · 2B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 45

All-history rows before 20260516: 45

System season_avg: 0.2830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2832

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.844	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.844	3.000	0.156	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.283	0.000	-0.033	0.250
predicted_BB	0.311	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.311	0.000	-0.311	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.089	0.000	-0.089	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.250	-0.089	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.468	0.000	-0.218	0.250
predicted_SO	0.533	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.533	0.000	0.467	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.844	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.311	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	0.533	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.807	-0.037
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	-0.018
predicted_H	0.753	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.082	-
predicted_HR	0.127	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.000
predicted_R	0.580	-0.087
predicted_RBI	0.398	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	0.552	0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.807	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.009
predicted_BB	0.301	0.008
predicted_H	0.788	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.082	0.000
predicted_HR	0.133	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.001
predicted_R	0.630	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.433	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.024
predicted_SO	0.537	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.844

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.1053	0.1707	0.1842	0.1053	0.0263	0.0790	0.0526	0.1842
season	0.60	45	-	173.000	49.000	8.000	8.000	25.000	30.000	14.000	24.000	0.2832	0.3385	0.4682	0.2832	0.0462	0.1445	0.0809	0.1387

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7540
predicted_AVG	0.1981
predicted_BB	0.2680
predicted_H	0.7440
predicted_HBP	0.0820
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.2646
predicted_R	0.4550
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.3281
predicted_SO	0.5800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1780	0.1140	0.1517	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8440	3.7540	3.8071	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1981	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3110	0.2680	0.2933	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.7440	0.7534	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0820	0.0820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1230	0.1271	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2646	0.2648	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.4550	0.5800	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3960	0.3984	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3281	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5330	0.5800	0.5523	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.283

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	645277
playerID	645277
playerName	Ozzie Albies
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Drake Baldwin (686948) · BATTER · DH · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 45

All-history rows before 20260516: 45

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2983

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.140	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.022	4.000	-1.022	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.298	0.500	-0.298	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.200	2.000	-1.200	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.267	1.000	-0.267	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.500	-0.127	-0.250
predicted_R	0.844	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.844	1.000	-0.844	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.756	1.000	-0.756	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.568	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.530	1.250	-0.530	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.978	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.978	1.000	0.022	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.140	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.340	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.844	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.568	-
predicted_SO	0.978	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.062	-0.078
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.408	-0.036
predicted_H	1.139	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.336	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.346	-0.000
predicted_R	0.804	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.666	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.568	0.000
predicted_SO	1.004	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.062	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.012
predicted_BB	0.419	0.011
predicted_H	1.192	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.352	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.014
predicted_R	0.873	0.069
predicted_RBI	0.723	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.588	0.020
predicted_SO	0.976	-0.028

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.085

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 4.140

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.8000	0.3000	0.1500	0.1500	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	12.000	0.2368	0.3256	0.5789	0.2368	0.1053	0.1316	0.1316	0.3158
season	0.60	45	-	181.000	54.000	6.000	12.000	34.000	38.000	20.000	44.000	0.2983	0.3775	0.5304	0.2983	0.0663	0.1878	0.1105	0.2431

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9510
predicted_AVG	0.2809
predicted_BB	0.3570
predicted_H	1.1100
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.3290
predicted_OBP	0.3457
predicted_R	0.7460
predicted_RBI	0.6450
predicted_SLG	0.5684
predicted_SO	1.0400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1450	0.1380	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1400	3.9510	4.0620	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2809	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.3570	0.4081	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.1100	1.1394	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3400	0.3290	0.3355	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3457	0.3459	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8440	0.7460	0.8036	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.6450	0.6656	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5680	0.5684	0.5682	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9780	1.0400	1.0036	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-C
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	686948
playerID	686948
playerName	Drake Baldwin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Michael Harris II (671739) · BATTER · CF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 36

All-history rows before 20260516: 36

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2971

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	4.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.250	-0.297	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.139	1.000	-1.139	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	1.000	-0.194	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.250	-0.319	-0.250
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	1.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.478	1.000	-0.478	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.806	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.806	1.000	0.194	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.139	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.437	-
predicted_SO	0.806	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.839	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.131	-0.008
predicted_H	0.975	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.151	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.462	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.386	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.000
predicted_SO	0.854	0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.839	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.135	0.004
predicted_H	1.020	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.159	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.009
predicted_R	0.501	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.419	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.418	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.831	-0.024

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	11.000	0.2750	0.2750	0.3750	0.2750	0.0250	0.0500	0.0000	0.2750
season	0.60	36	-	138.000	41.000	4.000	7.000	20.000	16.000	5.000	29.000	0.2971	0.3194	0.4783	0.2971	0.0507	0.1449	0.0362	0.2101

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1030
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8490
predicted_AVG	0.2787
predicted_BB	0.1190
predicted_H	1.0730
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.3003
predicted_R	0.4880
predicted_RBI	0.4250
predicted_SLG	0.4373
predicted_SO	0.9270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1030	0.1078	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.8490	3.8394	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2787	0.2789	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1390	0.1190	0.1310	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	1.0730	0.9751	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1680	0.1512	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3003	0.3001	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4880	0.4616	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4250	0.3860	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4370	0.4373	0.4371	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8060	0.9270	0.8543	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	671739
playerID	671739
playerName	Michael Harris II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Sandy León (506702) · BATTER · C · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 2

All-history rows before 20260516: 2

System season_avg: 0.5000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.5000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.500	0.500	0.167	0.167
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.667	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.500	0.167	0.167
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.500	0.167	0.167
predicted_SO	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.407	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.709	0.209
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.045	0.045
predicted_H	0.568	0.098
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.079	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.229	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.000
predicted_SO	0.662	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.709	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.054
predicted_BB	0.047	0.001
predicted_H	0.595	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.095
predicted_R	0.085	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.249	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.301	-0.106
predicted_SO	0.643	-0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	2	-	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	2	-	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.2500
season	0.60	2	-	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1490
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.5870
predicted_AVG	0.2740
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_H	0.9830
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.3281
predicted_R	0.4090
predicted_RBI	0.3930
predicted_SLG	0.4068
predicted_SO	0.8170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1490	0.0286	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.5870	2.7086	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2740	0.2740	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2360	0.0453	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.9830	0.5684	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.1010	0.0598	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3281	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4090	0.0785	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.3930	0.2290	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4070	0.4068	0.4070	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.8170	0.6618	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	506702
playerID	506702
playerName	Sandy León
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ATL
teamID	2

José Azócar (640492) · BATTER · RF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 3

All-history rows before 20260516: 3

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.500	0.000	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	0.000	-0.167
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.500	0.000	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.706	0.206
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000
predicted_BB	0.045	0.045
predicted_H	0.528	0.098
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.078	0.078
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000
predicted_SO	0.837	0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.706	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.055
predicted_BB	0.046	0.001
predicted_H	0.553	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.217	-0.092
predicted_R	0.084	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.228	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.276	-0.108
predicted_SO	0.813	-0.023

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	6.000	2.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333
last_10	0.20	3	-	6.000	2.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333
season	0.60	3	-	6.000	2.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.4980
predicted_AVG	0.2588
predicted_BB	0.2170
predicted_H	0.9050
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_OBP	0.3098
predicted_R	0.3760
predicted_RBI	0.3620
predicted_SLG	0.3842
predicted_SO	0.8500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1380	0.0285	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.4980	2.7058	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2588	0.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2170	0.0448	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.9050	0.5280	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0930	0.0509	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3098	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3760	0.0776	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.3620	0.2096	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3842	0.3840	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.8500	0.8365	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	640492
playerID	640492
playerName	José Azócar
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Matt Olson (621566) · BATTER · 1B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 45

All-history rows before 20260516: 45

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2874

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.867	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.867	4.000	0.133	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.000	0.213	0.500
predicted_BB	0.489	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.489	0.000	-0.489	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.111	0.000	0.889	2.000
predicted_HR	0.260	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.311	0.000	0.689	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.000	0.136	0.500
predicted_R	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.822	0.000	2.178	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.521	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.615	0.000	0.885	1.500
predicted_SO	1.111	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	3.000	-0.111	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.867	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.489	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.521	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	-0.057
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.846	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	-0.060
predicted_H	0.986	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.262	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.711	-0.089
predicted_RBI	0.661	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.521	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.175	0.064

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.846	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.008
predicted_BB	0.441	0.012
predicted_H	1.032	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.275	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.025
predicted_R	0.772	0.061
predicted_RBI	0.718	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.555	0.034
predicted_SO	1.143	-0.033

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.071

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.867

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	9.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.0000	0.4737
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	15.000	0.2432	0.3000	0.4865	0.2432	0.0811	0.1622	0.0811	0.4054
season	0.60	45	-	174.000	50.000	15.000	14.000	37.000	36.000	22.000	50.000	0.2874	0.3636	0.6149	0.2874	0.0805	0.2126	0.1264	0.2874

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8170
predicted_AVG	0.2606
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	0.9950
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2650
predicted_OBP	0.3183
predicted_R	0.5830
predicted_RBI	0.6630
predicted_SLG	0.5208
predicted_SO	1.2670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.1950	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8670	3.8170	3.8464	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2606	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4890	0.3430	0.4289	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9950	0.9862	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2650	0.2621	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3183	0.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	0.5830	0.7107	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.6630	0.6612	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5210	0.5208	0.5209	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	1.2670	1.1752	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	621566
playerID	621566
playerName	Matt Olson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Austin Riley (663586) · BATTER · 3B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2216

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.159	0.000	-0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.795	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.795	4.000	0.205	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.250	0.278	0.250
predicted_BB	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.841	1.000	1.159	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	0.864	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.250	0.208	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.568	0.000	1.432	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.250	0.879	1.000
predicted_SO	1.136	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.136	2.000	-0.136	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.795	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	1.136	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.775	-0.020
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.277	-0.041
predicted_H	0.892	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.092	-
predicted_HR	0.153	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.000
predicted_R	0.485	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.448	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000
predicted_SO	1.108	-0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.775	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.004
predicted_BB	0.285	0.008
predicted_H	0.933	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.092	0.000
predicted_HR	0.161	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.001
predicted_R	0.527	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.487	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.011
predicted_SO	1.077	-0.031

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.4444	0.2778	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	0.2703	0.3077	0.4595	0.2703	0.0541	0.1081	0.0270	0.2973
season	0.60	44	-	167.000	37.000	7.000	6.000	25.000	22.000	14.000	50.000	0.2216	0.2919	0.3713	0.2216	0.0359	0.1497	0.0838	0.2994

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1230
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7460
predicted_AVG	0.2428
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HBP	0.0920
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.3006
predicted_R	0.4640
predicted_RBI	0.4600
predicted_SLG	0.4023
predicted_SO	1.0670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1590	0.1230	0.1443	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7950	3.7460	3.7749	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2428	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.2180	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9090	0.8919	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0920	0.0920	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1570	0.1529	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3006	0.3008	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4640	0.4853	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4600	0.4482	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4023	0.4021	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1360	1.0670	1.1078	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663586
playerID	663586
playerName	Austin Riley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ha-Seong Kim (673490) · BATTER · SS · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 4

All-history rows before 20260516: 4

System season_avg: 0.0770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0769

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	4.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.293	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.191	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.293	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.344	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.191	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.256	0.006
predicted_H	0.563	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.000
predicted_R	0.290	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.249	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.293	0.000
predicted_SO	0.558	0.058

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.344	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.263	0.007
predicted_H	0.589	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.068	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.236	-0.018
predicted_R	0.315	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.271	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.247	-0.046
predicted_SO	0.543	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	13.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.0769	0.1429	0.0769	0.0769	0.0769	0.1538
last_10	0.20	4	-	13.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.0769	0.1429	0.0769	0.0769	0.0769	0.1538
season	0.60	4	-	13.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.0769	0.1429	0.0769	0.0769	0.0769	0.1538

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1170
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.6240
predicted_AVG	0.1907
predicted_BB	0.2730
predicted_H	0.6910
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.2535
predicted_R	0.4080
predicted_RBI	0.3070
predicted_SLG	0.2933
predicted_SO	0.7330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1170	0.0293	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.6240	3.3437	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1910	0.1907	0.1909	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2730	0.2558	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6910	0.5628	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0790	0.0648	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2535	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.4080	0.2896	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.3070	0.2493	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2930	0.2933	0.2931	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7330	0.5584	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.077

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	673490
playerID	673490
playerName	Ha-Seong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ATL
teamID	2

Bryce Elder (693821) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.222	4.000	-2.222	-4.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.222	0.000	-1.222	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	3.889	1.000	-1.889	1.000
predicted_IP	6.200	6.200	6.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.867	5.200	0.333	1.000
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	5.889	8.000	1.111	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.100	9.000	18.000	13.000	30.000	2.000	2.5851	0.9894	0.2872	0.5745	0.4149	0.9575	0.0638
last_10	0.35	9	54.200	11.000	35.000	20.000	53.000	3.000	1.8110	1.0061	0.2012	0.6402	0.3659	0.9695	0.0549
season	0.20	9	54.200	11.000	35.000	20.000	53.000	3.000	1.8110	1.0061	0.2012	0.6402	0.3659	0.9695	0.0549

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.4880
predicted_ER	2.1020
predicted_ERA	2.9704
predicted_H	4.5910
predicted_HR	0.5420
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	6.1150
predicted_WHIP	1.1113

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.4880	1.2418	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.1020	1.0492	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9704	2.9704	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.5910	3.2932	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5420	0.2705	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.2000	6.1000	6.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	6.1150	6.0574	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1113	1.1113	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	7
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	90

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.81
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	83
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	46
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	693821
playerID	693821
playerName	Bryce Elder
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Raisel Iglesias (628452) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 13

All-history rows before 20260516: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.538	1.000	0.462	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.015	1.000	-0.015	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.308	2.000	-0.308	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.8000	0.4000	0.4000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	6.000	3.000	16.000	0.8438	0.5625	0.2812	1.5000
season	0.20	13	13.200	7.000	3.000	17.000	0.7317	0.5122	0.2195	1.2439

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_ER	0.3020
predicted_ERA	2.7207
predicted_H	0.7770
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0820
predicted_WHIP	1.1371

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3600	0.1354	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3020	0.1136	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7207	2.7207	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7770	0.9161	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0840	0.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0820	1.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1371	1.1371	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	3
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	628452
playerID	628452
playerName	Raisel Iglesias
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Robert Suarez (663158) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.968	1.100	0.032	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.0000	0.8824	0.0000	0.5294	0.3529	0.8823
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	0.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.0000	0.8438	0.0000	0.5625	0.2812	0.8438
season	0.20	19	19.100	1.000	13.000	4.000	19.000	0.4655	0.8793	0.0517	0.6724	0.2069	0.9828

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_ER	0.2680
predicted_ERA	2.4144
predicted_H	0.7780
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9270
predicted_WHIP	1.1232

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3450	0.1418	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2680	0.1102	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4144	2.4144	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7780	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9270	0.3811	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1232	1.1232	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	6

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	2
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.47
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663158
playerID	663158
playerName	Robert Suarez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dylan Lee (669276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.091	0.000	0.909	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.895	0.200	-0.795	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.182	1.000	-0.182	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000	1.2857
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	1.000	3.000	0.000	17.000	0.8710	0.2903	0.0968	0.2903	0.0000	1.6452
season	0.20	22	21.100	2.000	8.000	2.000	26.000	0.8438	0.4688	0.0938	0.3750	0.0938	1.2188

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1370
predicted_ER	0.1770
predicted_ERA	2.4892
predicted_H	0.4330
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7410
predicted_WHIP	0.8920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1370	0.6363	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1770	0.0746	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4892	2.4892	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4330	0.1825	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0450	0.0190	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7410	1.4695	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8920	0.8920	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.84
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	669276
playerID	669276
playerName	Dylan Lee
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

20260516_CHC@CHW

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 6 - 5 CHW", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 6 - 5 CHW", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 6 - 5 CHW", "winner": "CHC"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 6 - 5 CHW", "winner": "CHC"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CHC 6 - 5 CHW	CHC	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CHC 6 - 5 CHW	CHC	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CHC	6-4	0.600	4	3.50	5	2W	average	average
Home CHW	6-4	0.600	5	4.80	2	1L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CHC	29-16	0.644	48	1.067	True
Home CHW	22-22	0.500	-13	-0.295	True
Signal	-	-	-1.362	-1.579	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-15	CHC @ CHW	10 - 5	CHC	5	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CHC	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Game target CHW	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CHC	33	9	6	0	4	4	8
Player finalized CHW	33	9	6	0	4	3	10
Player model fractional CHC	32.52	7.80	5.24	1.04	4.03	4.73	7.92
Player model fractional CHW	31.35	7.20	4.55	1.32	3.90	3.92	8.36
Simulation box CHC	36	9	6	0	6	5	11
Simulation box CHW	32	7	5	0	5	6	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CHC	Starter	Jameson Taillon	5.20	3	4	4	3	3.82	1.18	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Palencia	1	1	0	2	2	4.06	1.29	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Jacob Webb	1	0	1	0	0	3.27	1.16	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Phil Maton	1	1	0	1	0	4.76	1.29	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Hoby Milner	0.10	0	1	0	1	3.30	1.21	True
Home CHW	Starter	Davis Martin	7	1	10	5	4	2.40	1.10	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Grant Taylor	1	0	1	0	0	3.39	1.25	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Bryan Hudson	1	0	0	0	0	2.97	1.42	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Sean Newcomb	0	1	0	0	0	4.50	1.35	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Seranthony Domínguez	0	4	0	4	1	4.67	1.40	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CHC

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2393

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.705	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.705	5.000	0.295	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.200	0.011	0.050
predicted_BB	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	1.000	0.114	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.200	-0.061	0.050
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	1.000	-0.409	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.200	-0.118	0.050
predicted_SO	1.023	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.023	2.000	0.977	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.705	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.326	-
predicted_SO	1.023	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.667	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.329	0.011
predicted_H	0.730	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.057	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.000
predicted_R	0.484	-0.061
predicted_RBI	0.369	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.000
predicted_SO	0.989	-0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.335	0.006
predicted_H	0.761	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.274	-0.023
predicted_R	0.519	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.971	-0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.2353	0.3333	0.3529	0.2353	0.0294	0.1471	0.1177	0.2059
season	0.60	44	-	163.000	39.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	18.000	24.000	14.000	45.000	0.2393	0.3111	0.3681	0.2393	0.0245	0.1104	0.0859	0.2761

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1000
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.6130
predicted_AVG	0.2184
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_H	0.7890
predicted_HBP	0.0570
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.2968
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.3970
predicted_SLG	0.3263
predicted_SO	0.9390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1000	0.1083	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0250	0.0368	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7050	3.6130	3.6674	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2184	0.2182	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.3440	0.3286	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7890	0.7304	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0570	0.0570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0800	0.0741	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2968	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.3950	0.4838	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3970	0.3692	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3260	0.3263	0.3261	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0230	0.9390	0.9887	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Seiya Suzuki (673548) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 29

All-history rows before 20260516: 29

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2752

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	1.000	-0.138	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.759	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.759	4.000	1.241	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.500	-0.075	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.621	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.621	1.000	-0.621	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.034	2.000	-0.034	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.600	-0.185	-0.400
predicted_R	0.724	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.724	2.000	0.276	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.586	1.000	0.414	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.505	0.750	-0.305	-0.550
predicted_SO	1.103	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.103	2.000	0.897	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.759	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.621	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.724	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.413	-
predicted_SO	1.103	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.754	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.594	-0.027
predicted_H	0.798	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.166	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.678	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.491	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000
predicted_SO	1.129	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.754	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.605	0.011
predicted_H	0.832	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.039	0.000
predicted_HR	0.174	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.001
predicted_R	0.727	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.526	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.109	-0.020

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.1579	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.4737
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	8.000	11.000	0.1944	0.3409	0.4167	0.1944	0.0556	0.1944	0.2222	0.3056
season	0.60	29	-	109.000	30.000	4.000	7.000	17.000	21.000	18.000	32.000	0.2752	0.3846	0.5046	0.2752	0.0642	0.1560	0.1651	0.2936

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7470
predicted_AVG	0.2286
predicted_BB	0.5530
predicted_H	0.8570
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.1740
predicted_OBP	0.3311
predicted_R	0.6080
predicted_RBI	0.5230
predicted_SLG	0.4133
predicted_SO	1.1690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.1660	0.1491	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7590	3.7470	3.7543	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2286	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6210	0.5530	0.5941	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8570	0.7983	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1740	0.1655	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3311	0.3310	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7240	0.6080	0.6782	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5230	0.4909	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4130	0.4133	0.4131	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1030	1.1690	1.1291	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	673548
playerID	673548
playerName	Seiya Suzuki
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2599

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.260	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.116	6.000	-0.116	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.167	-0.010	0.083
predicted_BB	0.419	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.419	0.000	0.581	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.070	1.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.167	0.063	0.233
predicted_R	0.465	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.465	1.000	0.535	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.674	0.000	0.326	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.167	-0.140	0.083
predicted_SO	0.372	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.372	0.000	-0.372	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.260	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.419	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.465	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	0.372	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.174	-0.086
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.416	-0.003
predicted_H	0.950	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.436	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.498	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000
predicted_SO	0.375	0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.174	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.010
predicted_BB	0.423	0.008
predicted_H	0.990	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.052	0.000
predicted_HR	0.071	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.003
predicted_R	0.467	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.534	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.015
predicted_SO	0.368	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.260

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	0.1463	0.2391	0.1951	0.1463	0.0000	0.0488	0.1220	0.0488
season	0.60	43	-	177.000	46.000	11.000	4.000	29.000	20.000	18.000	16.000	0.2599	0.3366	0.3898	0.2599	0.0226	0.1638	0.1017	0.0904

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0520
predicted_AVG	0.2276
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_H	0.9220
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3044
predicted_R	0.3940
predicted_RBI	0.4820
predicted_SLG	0.3321
predicted_SO	0.3790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2260	0.2436	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2600	4.0520	4.1743	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2276	0.2278	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4190	0.4110	0.4157	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.9220	0.9502	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0650	0.0679	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3044	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4650	0.3940	0.4357	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.4820	0.4985	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3321	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3720	0.3790	0.3749	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.167
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2405

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.140	0.000	0.860	1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.674	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.674	4.000	-0.674	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.500	0.426	0.167
predicted_BB	0.791	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.791	1.000	1.209	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.884	2.000	1.116	0.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.386	0.800	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.381	0.600	0.419	0.200
predicted_R	0.814	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.814	1.000	0.186	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.465	1.000	1.535	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.455	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.481	0.500	0.519	0.500
predicted_SO	1.372	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.372	1.000	-0.372	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.674	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.791	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.386	-
predicted_R	0.814	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.455	-
predicted_SO	1.372	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.614	-0.060
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.793	0.002
predicted_H	0.855	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.209	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.386	-0.000
predicted_R	0.805	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.461	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.000
predicted_SO	1.385	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.614	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.002
predicted_BB	0.807	0.014
predicted_H	0.891	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.384	-0.002
predicted_R	0.863	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.494	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.018
predicted_SO	1.360	-0.025

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	0.2667	0.4500	0.4667	0.2667	0.0667	0.1333	0.3333	0.5333
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	9.000	16.000	0.2353	0.3953	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.1471	0.2647	0.4706
season	0.60	43	-	158.000	38.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	20.000	35.000	34.000	59.000	0.2405	0.3814	0.4810	0.2405	0.0633	0.1266	0.2152	0.3734

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5270
predicted_AVG	0.2446
predicted_BB	0.7950
predicted_H	0.8630
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.2080
predicted_OBP	0.3855
predicted_R	0.7920
predicted_RBI	0.4620
predicted_SLG	0.4549
predicted_SO	1.4040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1400	0.0920	0.1203	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0130	0.0189	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6740	3.5270	3.6136	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2446	0.2448	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7910	0.7950	0.7926	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8630	0.8553	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2080	0.2092	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3860	0.3855	0.3858	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8140	0.7920	0.8050	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4620	0.4608	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4550	0.4549	0.4550	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3720	1.4040	1.3851	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Matt Shaw (807713) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.182	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.182	4.000	1.818	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.200	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.000	-0.057	0.200
predicted_BB	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	0.000	0.182	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.000	-0.103	0.200
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	1.000	-0.091	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.200	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.457	0.000	-0.257	0.200
predicted_SO	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	1.000	0.364	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.182	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.227	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.459	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.243	0.061
predicted_AVG	0.262	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.219	-0.008
predicted_H	0.758	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.120	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.386	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.385	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.459	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.637	0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.243	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.223	0.004
predicted_H	0.790	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.127	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.012
predicted_R	0.414	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.413	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.433	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.625	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.0625	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.3226	0.3636	0.5484	0.3226	0.0323	0.1290	0.0645	0.1613
season	0.60	22	-	70.000	18.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	8.000	5.000	14.000	0.2571	0.3026	0.4571	0.2571	0.0429	0.1429	0.0714	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2400
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3470
predicted_AVG	0.2617
predicted_BB	0.2040
predicted_H	0.8760
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.3045
predicted_R	0.4240
predicted_RBI	0.4450
predicted_SLG	0.4586
predicted_SO	0.6380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.2400	0.2318	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1820	3.3470	3.2426	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2617	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2270	0.2040	0.2186	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8760	0.7583	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1380	0.1203	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3045	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.4240	0.3860	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4450	0.3849	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4590	0.4586	0.4589	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.6380	0.6367	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	807713
playerID	807713
playerName	Matt Shaw
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2264

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.209	1.000	-0.209	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.698	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.698	4.000	0.302	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.250	0.024	0.000
predicted_BB	0.674	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.674	2.000	0.326	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.837	1.000	0.163	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.500	0.051	-0.100
predicted_R	0.442	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.442	2.000	0.558	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.535	1.000	-0.535	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.352	0.500	-0.102	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.023	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.023	1.000	-0.023	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.698	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.674	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.371	-
predicted_R	0.442	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	1.023	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.640	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.713	0.039
predicted_H	0.851	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.371	-0.000
predicted_R	0.439	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.504	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	1.052	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.640	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.009
predicted_BB	0.726	0.013
predicted_H	0.887	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.369	-0.002
predicted_R	0.470	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.541	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.013
predicted_SO	1.033	-0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	0.1875	0.3810	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.0625	0.3125	0.4375
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	11.000	11.000	0.3030	0.4773	0.4545	0.3030	0.0303	0.2121	0.3333	0.3333
season	0.60	43	-	159.000	36.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	23.000	19.000	29.000	44.000	0.2264	0.3490	0.3522	0.2264	0.0189	0.1447	0.1824	0.2767

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5560
predicted_AVG	0.2353
predicted_BB	0.7700
predicted_H	0.8370
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.3708
predicted_R	0.4340
predicted_RBI	0.4960
predicted_SLG	0.3579
predicted_SO	1.0930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2090	0.2030	0.2065	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0130	0.0189	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6980	3.5560	3.6397	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2353	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6740	0.7700	0.7134	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8370	0.8506	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0690	0.0696	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3710	0.3708	0.3709	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4420	0.4340	0.4387	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.4960	0.5043	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3579	0.3580	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0230	1.0930	1.0517	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Alex Bregman (608324) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2414

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	4.047	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.047	5.000	-0.047	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.400	0.009	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.535	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.535	1.000	0.465	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.977	2.000	0.023	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.332	0.500	0.068	-0.100
predicted_R	0.442	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.442	3.000	0.558	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.302	0.000	0.698	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.351	0.400	-0.101	-0.150
predicted_SO	0.767	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.767	0.000	1.233	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	4.047	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.535	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.442	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	0.767	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.041	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.495	-0.040
predicted_H	1.050	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.113	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.495	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.000
predicted_SO	0.784	0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	4.041	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.007
predicted_BB	0.504	0.009
predicted_H	1.094	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.118	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.014
predicted_R	0.531	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.013
predicted_SO	0.770	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.270 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.047

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.4762	0.3333	0.0476	0.0476	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	9.000	0.2750	0.3556	0.3750	0.2750	0.0250	0.0500	0.1250	0.2250
season	0.60	43	-	174.000	42.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	13.000	19.000	23.000	33.000	0.2414	0.3317	0.3506	0.2414	0.0230	0.0747	0.1322	0.1897

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1030
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	4.0330
predicted_AVG	0.2635
predicted_BB	0.4380
predicted_H	1.0630
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1160
predicted_OBP	0.3379
predicted_R	0.5710
predicted_RBI	0.2910
predicted_SLG	0.3824
predicted_SO	0.8090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1160	0.1030	0.1106	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0470	4.0330	4.0412	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2635	0.2638	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5350	0.4380	0.4951	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.0630	1.0495	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1160	0.1125	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3379	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4420	0.5710	0.4951	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2910	0.2904	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3824	0.3822	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7670	0.8090	0.7843	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	608324
playerID	608324
playerName	Alex Bregman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Conforto (624424) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 13

All-history rows before 20260516: 13

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.769	3.000	1.231	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_BB	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	0.000	-0.923	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.200	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.468	0.000	-0.268	0.200
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.615	0.000	0.385	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.526	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	2.000	1.231	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.417	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.309	-
predicted_BB	0.750	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.407	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.526	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.408	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.138	0.138
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000
predicted_BB	0.693	-0.057
predicted_H	0.839	0.109
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.091	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	-0.000
predicted_RBI	0.357	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.526	0.000
predicted_SO	0.832	-0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.408	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.138	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.706	0.013
predicted_H	0.874	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.011	0.000
predicted_HR	0.096	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.004
predicted_R	0.715	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.382	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.501	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.817	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.3889	0.4762	0.7778	0.3889	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	12.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	8.000	7.000	0.3750	0.5000	0.6250	0.3750	0.0312	0.1562	0.2500	0.2188
season	0.60	12	-	36.000	12.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	9.000	10.000	0.3333	0.4667	0.5556	0.3333	0.0278	0.1389	0.2500	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3900
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4150
predicted_AVG	0.3092
predicted_BB	0.5800
predicted_H	1.0560
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_OBP	0.4072
predicted_R	0.6660
predicted_RBI	0.4500
predicted_SLG	0.5261
predicted_SO	0.8290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4170	0.3900	0.4080	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.4150	3.1382	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3090	0.3092	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7500	0.5800	0.6934	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	1.0560	0.8386	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1130	0.0910	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4070	0.4072	0.4071	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6660	0.6667	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.4500	0.3566	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5260	0.5261	0.5260	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.8290	0.8317	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	624424
playerID	624424
playerName	Michael Conforto
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHC
teamID	5

Miguel Amaya (665804) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2295

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.053	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.053	0.000	0.947	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.211	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.211	4.000	-0.211	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.104	0.083
predicted_BB	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	1.000	0.263	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.250	0.162	0.250
predicted_R	0.526	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.250	0.322	0.417
predicted_SO	0.895	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.895	1.000	-0.895	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.211	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.368	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	0.895	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	0.006
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.248	0.037
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.389	0.021
predicted_H	0.654	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.140	-
predicted_HR	0.078	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.498	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.405	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	0.884	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.248	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.397	0.007
predicted_H	0.682	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.140	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.042
predicted_R	0.534	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.434	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.305	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.868	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.2143	0.4211	0.2143	0.2143	0.0000	0.2143	0.2857	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	0.1935	0.3243	0.2903	0.1935	0.0323	0.1290	0.1290	0.2581
season	0.60	19	-	61.000	14.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	10.000	7.000	17.000	0.2295	0.3380	0.3443	0.2295	0.0328	0.1311	0.1148	0.2787

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3120
predicted_AVG	0.2266
predicted_BB	0.4270
predicted_H	0.7500
predicted_HBP	0.1400
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_OBP	0.3380
predicted_R	0.4490
predicted_RBI	0.4650
predicted_SLG	0.3333
predicted_SO	0.8640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0530	0.0690	0.0588	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2110	3.3120	3.2477	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2266	0.2269	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3680	0.4270	0.3894	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7500	0.6545	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1400	0.1400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0920	0.0780	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3380	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.4490	0.4980	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4650	0.4045	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3333	0.3331	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8950	0.8640	0.8837	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	665804
playerID	665804
playerName	Miguel Amaya
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jameson Taillon (592791) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 8

All-history rows before 20260516: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.500	1.000	0.500	2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.500	4.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.562	5.100	-0.362	0.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	5.000	4.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	11.000	21.000	10.000	23.000	6.000	3.4138	1.0690	0.3793	0.7241	0.3448	0.7931	0.2069
last_10	0.35	8	45.200	20.000	36.000	16.000	40.000	11.000	3.9416	1.1387	0.4380	0.7883	0.3504	0.8759	0.2409
season	0.20	8	45.200	20.000	36.000	16.000	40.000	11.000	3.9416	1.1387	0.4380	0.7883	0.3504	0.8759	0.2409

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0380
predicted_ER	2.4050
predicted_ERA	3.8190
predicted_H	4.6420
predicted_HR	1.0410
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.9420
predicted_WHIP	1.1789

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.0380	2.5310	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.4050	2.7099	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8190	3.8190	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.6420	4.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0410	0.5075	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.9420	4.4592	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1789	1.1789	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	4
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	99

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.94
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	90
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	61
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	592791
playerID	592791
playerName	Jameson Taillon
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Daniel Palencia (694037) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	0.000	1.778	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.778	1.000	1.222	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.811	1.000	0.189	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	4.5000	1.2500	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500	1.5000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	9	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	2.2500	1.1250	0.2500	0.8750	0.2500	1.1250	0.1250
season	0.20	9	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	2.2500	1.1250	0.2500	0.8750	0.2500	1.1250	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_ER	0.4290
predicted_ERA	4.0631
predicted_H	0.8950
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.2910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3320	1.4505	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4290	0.8119	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0631	4.0631	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8950	1.6360	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1400	0.0461	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0000	0.3294	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2910	1.2910	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.25
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	694037
playerID	694037
playerName	Daniel Palencia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jacob Webb (657097) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.842	1.000	0.158	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.053	1.000	-0.053	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	1.5882	0.7059	0.1765	0.5294	0.1765	0.8823	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	1.6875	0.9375	0.1875	0.6562	0.2812	1.1250	0.0938
season	0.20	19	18.100	7.000	19.000	8.000	20.000	3.000	3.4364	1.4727	0.3818	1.0364	0.4364	1.0909	0.1636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_ER	0.3630
predicted_ERA	3.2686
predicted_H	0.8280
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9780
predicted_WHIP	1.1595

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3320	0.1347	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3630	0.1472	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2686	3.2686	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8280	0.3359	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1020	0.0414	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9780	0.9911	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1595	1.1595	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.44
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	657097
playerID	657097
playerName	Jacob Webb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 13

All-history rows before 20260516: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.769	0.000	0.231	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.077	1.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.754	1.000	0.246	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.231	2.000	-1.231	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	3.8571	0.8571	0.4286	0.8571	0.0000	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	8.000	12.000	2.000	13.000	2.000	7.7143	1.5000	0.8571	1.2857	0.2143	1.3929	0.2143
season	0.20	13	11.200	10.000	14.000	5.000	16.000	2.000	7.7143	1.6286	0.8571	1.2000	0.4286	1.3714	0.1714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3110
predicted_ER	0.5290
predicted_ERA	4.7625
predicted_H	0.9820
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0780
predicted_WHIP	1.2930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3110	0.1124	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5290	0.8298	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7625	4.7625	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9820	0.9935	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1540	0.0556	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0780	0.3895	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2930	1.2930	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Hoby Milner (571948) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 21

All-history rows before 20260516: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.824	2.000	-0.724	-1.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	0.3750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	2.7931	1.0345	0.3103	0.6207	0.4138	0.6207	0.1035
season	0.20	20	20.100	5.000	14.000	6.000	7.000	2.000	2.2131	0.9836	0.2459	0.6885	0.2951	0.3443	0.0984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_ER	0.2310
predicted_ERA	3.2961
predicted_H	0.5230
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4620
predicted_WHIP	1.2056

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2380	0.6827	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2310	0.0962	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2961	3.2961	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5230	0.2178	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0610	0.0254	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4620	0.7760	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2056	1.2056	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.21
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	571948
playerID	571948
playerName	Hoby Milner
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Home Team: CHW

Munetaka Murakami (808959) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2252

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.595	4.000	-0.595	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.250	-0.225	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.833	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.833	0.000	1.167	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.810	1.000	-0.810	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.250	0.031	0.150
predicted_R	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.690	0.000	-0.690	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.690	0.000	-0.690	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.530	0.250	-0.530	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.476	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.476	1.000	-1.476	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.024	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.595	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.833	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.367	-
predicted_R	0.690	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.432	-
predicted_SO	1.476	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.035	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.558	-0.037
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.834	0.001
predicted_H	0.775	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.000
predicted_R	0.634	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.466	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.000
predicted_SO	1.409	-0.067

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.035	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.558	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.826	-0.008
predicted_H	0.763	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.226	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.362	-0.005
predicted_R	0.616	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.452	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.415	-0.017
predicted_SO	1.423	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.063

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	0.2000	0.4286	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	15.000	0.2000	0.3488	0.4000	0.2000	0.0571	0.0857	0.2286	0.4286
season	0.60	42	-	151.000	34.000	1.000	15.000	29.000	29.000	35.000	62.000	0.2252	0.3690	0.5298	0.2252	0.0993	0.1920	0.2318	0.4106

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0520
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5040
predicted_AVG	0.2191
predicted_BB	0.8360
predicted_H	0.7680
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2300
predicted_OBP	0.3670
predicted_R	0.5540
predicted_RBI	0.4600
predicted_SLG	0.4319
predicted_SO	1.3130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0240	0.0520	0.0355	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5950	3.5040	3.5577	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2191	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8330	0.8360	0.8342	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.7680	0.7751	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2300	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3670	0.3670	0.3670	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6900	0.5540	0.6343	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4600	0.4659	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4320	0.4319	0.4320	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4760	1.3130	1.4092	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	808959
playerID	808959
playerName	Munetaka Murakami
pos	IF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Chase Meidroth (805367) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2810

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.220	0.000	0.780	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.732	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.732	2.000	0.268	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.000	0.219	0.500
predicted_BB	0.463	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.463	2.000	0.537	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.049	0.000	0.951	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.500	0.244	0.100
predicted_R	0.683	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.683	1.000	0.317	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.399	0.000	0.351	0.750
predicted_SO	1.024	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.024	0.000	-1.024	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.732	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.463	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.683	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.440	-
predicted_SO	1.024	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.655	-0.077
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000
predicted_BB	0.463	0.000
predicted_H	0.964	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.669	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.502	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.000
predicted_SO	0.995	-0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.655	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.459	-0.005
predicted_H	0.949	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.122	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.342	-0.015
predicted_R	0.649	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.487	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.414	-0.026
predicted_SO	1.004	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3889	0.5000	0.2857	0.0714	0.3571	0.2143	0.2143
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	0.3143	0.3750	0.5429	0.3143	0.0571	0.2000	0.1143	0.3429
season	0.60	41	-	153.000	43.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	28.000	19.000	42.000	0.2810	0.3563	0.3987	0.2811	0.0196	0.0654	0.1242	0.2745

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5430
predicted_AVG	0.2820
predicted_BB	0.4630
predicted_H	0.9990
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1300
predicted_OBP	0.3575
predicted_R	0.6490
predicted_RBI	0.5200
predicted_SLG	0.4399
predicted_SO	0.9520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2200	0.1660	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7320	3.5430	3.6551	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2820	0.2820	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4630	0.4630	0.4630	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9990	0.9640	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1300	0.1241	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3575	0.3572	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6830	0.6490	0.6692	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5200	0.5022	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4400	0.4399	0.4400	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0240	0.9520	0.9947	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	805367
playerID	805367
playerName	Chase Meidroth
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Miguel Vargas (678246) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2450

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	1.000	-0.146	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.683	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.683	4.000	1.317	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.500	-0.245	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.707	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.707	0.000	-0.707	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.902	2.000	-0.902	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.244	1.000	-0.244	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.500	-0.373	-0.500
predicted_R	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.780	1.000	-0.780	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.585	1.000	-0.585	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.550	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.497	1.500	-0.497	-1.500
predicted_SO	0.707	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.707	0.000	1.293	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.683	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.707	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.780	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.550	-
predicted_SO	0.707	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	0.024
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.678	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.654	-0.053
predicted_H	1.036	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.059	-
predicted_HR	0.243	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000
predicted_R	0.782	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.585	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.550	0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.678	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.648	-0.006
predicted_H	1.020	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.059	0.000
predicted_HR	0.238	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.386	0.003
predicted_R	0.758	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.568	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.529	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.707	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.3889	0.4286	0.6667	0.3889	0.0556	0.1667	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4318	0.7222	0.3333	0.1111	0.1944	0.1667	0.1667
season	0.60	41	-	151.000	37.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	24.000	32.000	29.000	29.000	0.2450	0.3730	0.4967	0.2450	0.0662	0.1589	0.1920	0.1920

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2050
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.6700
predicted_AVG	0.2848
predicted_BB	0.5780
predicted_H	1.0450
predicted_HBP	0.0590
predicted_HR	0.2470
predicted_OBP	0.3832
predicted_R	0.7840
predicted_RBI	0.5930
predicted_SLG	0.5505
predicted_SO	0.6900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.2050	0.1701	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6830	3.6700	3.6777	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2848	0.2849	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7070	0.5780	0.6542	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0450	1.0361	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0590	0.0590	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2470	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3832	0.3831	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7800	0.7840	0.7816	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.5930	0.5853	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5500	0.5505	0.5502	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7070	0.6900	0.7000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	678246
playerID	678246
playerName	Miguel Vargas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sam Antonacci (803011) · BATTER · LF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 23

All-history rows before 20260516: 23

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.478	4.000	0.522	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_BB	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.304	1.000	-0.304	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.870	0.000	0.130	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.200	-0.165	0.000
predicted_R	0.565	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.565	0.000	0.435	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.391	0.000	1.609	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.000	-0.138	0.250
predicted_SO	0.522	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.522	1.000	0.478	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.087	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.304	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.565	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	0.522	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.015
predicted_3B	0.071	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.591	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.296	-0.008
predicted_H	0.879	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.293	-
predicted_HR	0.049	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.000
predicted_R	0.563	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.595	0.073

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.591	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.293	-0.003
predicted_H	0.866	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.293	0.000
predicted_HR	0.048	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.050
predicted_R	0.546	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.311	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.004
predicted_SO	0.600	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.3333	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.2571	0.3810	0.3143	0.2571	0.0000	0.0571	0.0857	0.2286
season	0.60	23	-	80.000	20.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	13.000	7.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3646	0.3875	0.2500	0.0125	0.1125	0.0875	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2140
predicted_3B	0.0440
predicted_AB	3.5760
predicted_AVG	0.2454
predicted_BB	0.2830
predicted_H	0.8780
predicted_HBP	0.2930
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.3482
predicted_R	0.5600
predicted_RBI	0.3210
predicted_SLG	0.3697
predicted_SO	0.7130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.2140	0.1892	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0870	0.0440	0.0706	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.5760	3.5909	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2454	0.2452	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3040	0.2830	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8780	0.8792	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2930	0.2930	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0480	0.0492	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3482	0.3481	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5650	0.5600	0.5631	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3210	0.3204	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3697	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5220	0.7130	0.5946	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	803011
playerID	803011
playerName	Sam Antonacci
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Jarred Kelenic (672284) · BATTER · RF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 11

All-history rows before 20260516: 11

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.250	0.061	0.083
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	0.182	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	1.000	-0.091	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.167	0.250
predicted_R	0.182	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.182	1.000	0.818	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.394	1.000	-0.061	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.636	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	2.000	-0.636	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.182	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.406	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.115	0.115
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.274	0.001
predicted_H	0.709	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.099	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.231	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.366	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.000
predicted_SO	0.699	0.063

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.115	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.271	-0.003
predicted_H	0.698	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.097	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.029
predicted_R	0.224	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.356	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.053
predicted_SO	0.706	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.4667	0.2000	0.0667	0.2000	0.0667	0.4667
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.4333	0.3000	0.0333	0.1333	0.1000	0.2333
season	0.60	11	-	33.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.3939	0.2727	0.0303	0.1212	0.0909	0.2121

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.3630
predicted_AVG	0.2546
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_H	0.8560
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1190
predicted_OBP	0.3147
predicted_R	0.3370
predicted_RBI	0.4450
predicted_SLG	0.4064
predicted_SO	0.8340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1420	0.1072	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3630	3.1151	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2546	0.2549	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2750	0.2736	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.8560	0.7085	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1190	0.0992	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3147	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1820	0.3370	0.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4450	0.3665	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4060	0.4064	0.4061	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.8340	0.6988	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	672284
playerID	672284
playerName	Jarred Kelenic
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Tristan Peters (671976) · BATTER · CF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 30

All-history rows before 20260516: 30

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2527

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.033	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.033	4.000	-0.033	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.000	0.081	0.333
predicted_BB	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.767	0.000	0.233	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.000	-0.056	0.250
predicted_R	0.267	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.233	1.000	2.767	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.297	0.000	0.370	0.667
predicted_SO	0.733	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.733	0.000	-0.733	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.033	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.267	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.030
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.121	0.088
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.223	-0.010
predicted_H	0.695	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.283	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.295	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.747	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.121	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.221	-0.002
predicted_H	0.684	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.021	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.020
predicted_R	0.275	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.286	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.292	-0.042
predicted_SO	0.754	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.3529	0.2353	0.1177	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	7.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2333	0.2812	0.3333	0.2333	0.1333	0.0667	0.2333
season	0.60	30	-	91.000	23.000	4.000	7.000	8.000	7.000	22.000	0.2527	0.3061	0.2967	0.2527	0.0769	0.0769	0.2418

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2110
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2640
predicted_AVG	0.2450
predicted_BB	0.2060
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.2912
predicted_R	0.3100
predicted_RBI	0.3360
predicted_SLG	0.3338
predicted_SO	0.7690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.2110	0.1628	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0330	3.2640	3.1211	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2450	0.2450	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.2060	0.2227	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8000	0.6948	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0215	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2912	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2670	0.3100	0.2834	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3360	0.2952	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3338	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	0.7690	0.7467	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	671976
playerID	671976
playerName	Tristan Peters
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Colson Montgomery (695657) · BATTER · SS · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.732	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.732	4.000	0.268	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.500	-0.235	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.366	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.366	0.000	0.634	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.878	2.000	-0.878	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.293	1.000	-0.293	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.500	-0.131	-0.300
predicted_R	0.512	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.512	1.000	-0.512	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.732	1.000	-0.732	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.557	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.523	1.250	-0.523	-1.250
predicted_SO	1.244	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.244	1.000	0.756	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.732	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.366	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.300	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.557	-
predicted_SO	1.244	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.752	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	-0.014
predicted_H	0.924	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.093	-
predicted_HR	0.309	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.000
predicted_R	0.551	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.689	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.557	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.228	-0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.752	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.348	-0.003
predicted_H	0.910	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.093	0.000
predicted_HR	0.303	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.023
predicted_R	0.534	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.669	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.535	-0.022
predicted_SO	1.240	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.081

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.7895	0.3158	0.1579	0.2105	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	6.000	4.000	14.000	0.2564	0.3256	0.5641	0.2564	0.0769	0.2051	0.1026	0.3590
season	0.60	41	-	153.000	36.000	8.000	12.000	30.000	21.000	15.000	51.000	0.2353	0.3314	0.5229	0.2353	0.0784	0.1961	0.0980	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7820
predicted_AVG	0.2539
predicted_BB	0.3310
predicted_H	0.9600
predicted_HBP	0.0930
predicted_HR	0.3210
predicted_OBP	0.3297
predicted_R	0.6070
predicted_RBI	0.7170
predicted_SLG	0.5566
predicted_SO	1.2060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.1770	0.1877	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7320	3.7820	3.7524	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2539	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3660	0.3310	0.3517	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9600	0.9244	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0930	0.0930	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3000	0.3210	0.3086	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3297	0.3299	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.6070	0.5507	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.7170	0.6891	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5570	0.5566	0.5568	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2440	1.2060	1.2285	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	695657
playerID	695657
playerName	Colson Montgomery
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Andrew Benintendi (643217) · BATTER · DH · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 31

All-history rows before 20260516: 31

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2281

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_AB	3.677	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.677	1.000	-0.677	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.000	0.439	0.667
predicted_BB	0.258	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.258	1.000	0.742	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.839	0.000	1.161	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.274	0.500	0.476	0.250
predicted_R	0.419	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	1.000	0.581	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.299	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.351	0.000	0.316	0.667
predicted_SO	1.194	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.194	0.000	-1.194	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.065	-
predicted_AB	3.677	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.258	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.299	-
predicted_SO	1.194	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.052	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.595	-0.083
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.298	0.040
predicted_H	0.688	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.000
predicted_R	0.439	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.304	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.299	0.000
predicted_SO	1.072	-0.122

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.052	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.295	-0.003
predicted_H	0.677	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.049	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.250	-0.033
predicted_R	0.426	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.295	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.290	-0.009
predicted_SO	1.082	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.0714	0.2353	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.2143	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.2581	0.3333	0.2581	0.2581	0.0000	0.0645	0.1290	0.1935
season	0.60	31	-	114.000	26.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	14.000	13.000	8.000	37.000	0.2281	0.2742	0.3509	0.2281	0.0175	0.1228	0.0702	0.3246

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0320
predicted_AB	3.4670
predicted_AVG	0.2108
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_H	0.7310
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.2835
predicted_R	0.4700
predicted_RBI	0.3260
predicted_SLG	0.2994
predicted_SO	0.8830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.0910	0.1141	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0650	0.0320	0.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6770	3.4670	3.5945	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2108	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2580	0.3600	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7310	0.6879	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0510	0.0504	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2835	0.2832	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.4700	0.4390	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3260	0.3041	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2990	0.2994	0.2992	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1940	0.8830	1.0718	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	643217
playerID	643217
playerName	Andrew Benintendi
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHW
teamID	6

Drew Romo (691011) · BATTER · C · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 11

All-history rows before 20260516: 11

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.182	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.182	4.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.500	-0.200	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.636	2.000	-0.636	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.500	-0.099	-0.250
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.507	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.600	0.750	-0.600	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.818	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.818	0.000	0.182	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.182	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.636	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.507	-
predicted_SO	0.818	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.290	0.108
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.569	-0.067
predicted_H	0.645	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.060	-
predicted_HR	0.220	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.537	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.487	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.507	0.000
predicted_SO	0.838	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.290	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.564	-0.006
predicted_H	0.635	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.060	0.000
predicted_HR	0.216	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.005
predicted_R	0.521	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.473	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.449	-0.058
predicted_SO	0.846	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.066

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.4737	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	6.000	8.000	0.2188	0.3590	0.6562	0.2188	0.1250	0.2188	0.1875	0.2500
season	0.60	11	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	7.000	9.000	0.2000	0.3488	0.6000	0.2000	0.1143	0.2000	0.2000	0.2571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2080
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5100
predicted_AVG	0.2215
predicted_BB	0.4330
predicted_H	0.7770
predicted_HBP	0.0600
predicted_HR	0.2610
predicted_OBP	0.3158
predicted_R	0.5200
predicted_RBI	0.5830
predicted_SLG	0.5072
predicted_SO	0.8770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2080	0.1906	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1820	3.5100	3.2902	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2215	0.2218	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6360	0.4330	0.5691	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7770	0.6450	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0600	0.0600	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2610	0.2201	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3158	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.5200	0.5368	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5830	0.4872	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5070	0.5072	0.5071	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8180	0.8770	0.8375	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	691011
playerID	691011
playerName	Drew Romo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHW
teamID	6

Davis Martin (663436) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 8

All-history rows before 20260516: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	1.250	2.000	2.750	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.000	3.000	0.000	2.000
predicted_IP	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.162	6.000	0.838	1.000
predicted_SO	10.000	10.000	10.000	Pitching_SO	6.500	9.000	3.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 8.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	32.000	4.000	24.000	6.000	37.000	0.000	1.1250	0.9375	0.1250	0.7500	0.1875	1.1562	0.0000
last_10	0.35	8	50.000	9.000	40.000	10.000	52.000	2.000	1.6200	1.0000	0.1800	0.8000	0.2000	1.0400	0.0400
season	0.20	8	50.000	9.000	40.000	10.000	52.000	2.000	1.6200	1.0000	0.1800	0.8000	0.2000	1.0400	0.0400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8430
predicted_ER	1.8630
predicted_ERA	2.4040
predicted_H	5.8050
predicted_HR	0.4020
predicted_IP	7.0000
predicted_SO	7.3690
predicted_WHIP	1.0966

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.8430	2.9484	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.8630	1.4207	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4040	2.4040	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.8050	5.3924	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4020	0.1960	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	8.0000	7.0000	7.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	7.3690	6.6674	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0966	1.0966	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	7.0
H	5
R	1
ER	1
BB	4
SO	10
HR	0
BF	30
Pitches	119

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.62
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	105
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	72
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663436
playerID	663436
playerName	Davis Martin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Grant Taylor (691799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 6

All-history rows before 20260516: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.100	-0.017	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125
last_10	0.35	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632
season	0.20	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_ER	0.3770
predicted_ERA	3.3927
predicted_H	0.9060
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0260
predicted_WHIP	1.2513

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3450	0.1078	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3770	0.1178	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3927	3.3927	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9060	0.2831	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1030	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0260	1.0081	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2513	1.2513	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260409_CHW@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691799
playerID	691799
playerName	Grant Taylor
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Bryan Hudson (663542) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 12

All-history rows before 20260516: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.917	1.000	-0.917	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.817	1.000	0.183	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	-1.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.0000	1.8000	0.0000	1.0000	0.8000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	0.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	0.0000	1.3929	0.0000	0.8571	0.5357	1.2857
season	0.20	12	11.200	2.000	11.000	8.000	15.000	1.5429	1.6286	0.1714	0.9429	0.6857	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2600
predicted_ER	0.1790
predicted_ERA	2.9663
predicted_H	0.5110
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5860
predicted_WHIP	1.4155

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2600	0.0940	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1790	0.0647	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9663	2.9663	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5110	0.1846	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0480	0.0173	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5860	0.2117	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4155	1.4155	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260424_WAS@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663542
playerID	663542
playerName	Bryan Hudson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Newcomb (656794) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 1

All-history rows before 20260516: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	3.000	3.000	-3.000	-3.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.100	2.100	-2.100	-2.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
last_10	0.35	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
season	0.20	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1940
predicted_ER	0.2510
predicted_ERA	4.4971
predicted_H	0.4870
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4590
predicted_WHIP	1.3528

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1940	0.0511	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2510	0.8027	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4971	4.4971	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4870	0.1283	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0158	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.4590	2.3308	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3528	1.3528	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	0
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656794
playerID	656794
playerName	Sean Newcomb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Seranthony Domínguez (622554) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 2

All-history rows before 20260516: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	1.500	2.000	2.500	2.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	0.100	-0.550	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
season	0.20	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1400
predicted_ER	0.1820
predicted_ERA	4.6665
predicted_H	0.3520
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3180
predicted_WHIP	1.4038

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1400	0.7861	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	0.1820	3.0503	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6665	4.6665	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.3520	3.0926	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0560	0.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3180	0.8304	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4038	1.4038	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	4
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	622554
playerID	622554
playerName	Seranthony Domínguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

20260516_CIN@CLE

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 6 - 5 CLE", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 6 - 5 CLE", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 6 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CIN"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 4 CLE", "winner": "CIN"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CIN 6 - 5 CLE	CIN	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CIN 5 - 4 CLE	CIN	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CIN	4-6	0.400	5.20	5.40	-2	2W	hot	weak
Home CLE	6-4	0.600	4.50	3.50	10	1L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CIN	24-21	0.533	-25	-0.556	True
Home CLE	24-22	0.522	3	0.065	True
Signal	-	-	0.621	0.603	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-15	CIN @ CLE	7 - 6	CIN	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CIN	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Game target CLE	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CIN	33	9	6	0	4	5	9
Player finalized CLE	33	9	4	0	3	5	7
Player model fractional CIN	32.62	7.90	5.37	1.36	4.43	4.37	7.61
Player model fractional CLE	32.15	7.40	4.44	0.74	3.97	4.17	6.51
Simulation box CIN	39	9	5	1	5	6	6
Simulation box CLE	39	9	4	1	4	2	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CIN	Starter	Chris Paddack	4	4	2	8	2	6.08	1.51	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Brock Burke	1.10	0	2	0	0	3.23	1.40	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Graham Ashcraft	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.34	1.24	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Pierce Johnson	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.62	1.21	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Tony Santillan	1	0	2	1	0	5.32	1.45	True
Away CIN	Reliever	Luis Mey	1	0	1	0	0	4.00	1.30	-
Home CLE	Starter	Joey Cantillo	5.20	2	4	5	2	3.54	1.36	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Cade Smith	2	1	0	1	0	3.19	1.07	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Erik Sabrowski	1	0	1	0	3	2.54	1.11	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Hunter Gaddis	0.20	2	0	3	1	4.43	1.43	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Matt Festa	0.20	0	1	0	0	4.37	1.31	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CIN

Ke'Bryan Hayes (663647) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 34

All-history rows before 20260516: 34

System season_avg: 0.1530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1532

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	0.971	1.000
predicted_AB	3.265	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.265	4.000	1.735	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.400	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.153	0.250	0.247	0.150
predicted_BB	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.203	0.250	0.197	0.150
predicted_R	0.265	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.265	1.000	0.735	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.147	0.000	0.853	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.800	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.243	0.250	0.557	0.550
predicted_SO	0.588	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.588	1.000	-0.588	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.265	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.206	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.235	-
predicted_R	0.265	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.298	-
predicted_SO	0.588	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	0.020
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.312	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.192	-0.014
predicted_H	0.581	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.000
predicted_R	0.292	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.253	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.298	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.628	0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.312	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.190	-0.001
predicted_H	0.572	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.056	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.218	-0.017
predicted_R	0.284	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.246	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.262	-0.036
predicted_SO	0.632	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.1250	0.0000	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.2059	0.2286	0.3235	0.2059	0.0294	0.1177	0.0294	0.2647
season	0.60	34	-	111.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	7.000	20.000	0.1532	0.2034	0.2432	0.1532	0.0180	0.0450	0.0631	0.1802

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.3840
predicted_AVG	0.1954
predicted_BB	0.1690
predicted_H	0.6610
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2355
predicted_R	0.3350
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.2977
predicted_SO	0.6900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.1110	0.0793	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0170	0.0243	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2650	3.3840	3.3115	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1954	0.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2060	0.1690	0.1915	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6610	0.5812	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0670	0.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2350	0.2355	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2650	0.3350	0.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2890	0.2531	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2980	0.2977	0.2979	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5880	0.6900	0.6279	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.153

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	663647
playerID	663647
playerName	Ke'Bryan Hayes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 45

All-history rows before 20260516: 45

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2983

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	1.000	-0.244	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.022	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.022	4.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.326	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.298	0.250	0.202	0.250
predicted_BB	0.378	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.378	0.000	0.622	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_H	1.300	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.200	1.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.400	0.240	0.200
predicted_R	0.733	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.733	0.000	-0.733	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.507	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.525	0.500	-0.025	0.000
predicted_SO	1.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	0.000	-0.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.022	-
predicted_AVG	0.326	-
predicted_BB	0.378	-
predicted_H	1.300	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.371	-
predicted_R	0.733	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.507	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.282	0.038
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.064	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.326	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.322	-0.056
predicted_H	1.318	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.065	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.000
predicted_R	0.742	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.527	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.507	0.000
predicted_SO	1.141	-0.059

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.282	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.064	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.320	-0.002
predicted_H	1.298	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.065	0.000
predicted_HR	0.131	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.369	-0.002
predicted_R	0.722	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.513	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.486	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.148	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.319 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 4.022

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	4.000	0.4545	0.4783	0.5909	0.4546	0.0000	0.0454	0.0000	0.1818
last_10	0.20	10	-	44.000	15.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	6.000	0.000	10.000	0.3409	0.3478	0.4545	0.3409	0.0000	0.1136	0.0000	0.2273
season	0.60	45	-	181.000	54.000	11.000	10.000	30.000	33.000	17.000	54.000	0.2983	0.3600	0.5249	0.2983	0.0553	0.1658	0.0939	0.2983

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3360
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1240
predicted_AVG	0.3258
predicted_BB	0.2420
predicted_H	1.3440
predicted_HBP	0.0650
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.3713
predicted_R	0.7550
predicted_RBI	0.5380
predicted_SLG	0.5071
predicted_SO	1.0560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.3360	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0220	4.1240	4.0640	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3260	0.3258	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3780	0.2420	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3000	1.3440	1.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0650	0.0650	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1360	0.1325	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3710	0.3713	0.3711	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7330	0.7550	0.7421	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5380	0.5274	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5070	0.5071	0.5070	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.0560	1.1407	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

Jose Trevino (624431) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 12

All-history rows before 20260516: 12

System season_avg: 0.1430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.111	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.333	4.000	2.667	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.200	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.143	0.250	0.057	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.247	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.172	0.250	0.028	-0.050
predicted_R	0.222	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	1.000	0.833	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	2.000	0.833	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.312	0.800	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.179	0.250	0.621	0.550
predicted_SO	0.556	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.111	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.247	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.312	-
predicted_SO	0.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.018
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.207	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.125	0.014
predicted_H	0.510	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.038	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.247	0.000
predicted_R	0.277	0.055
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.312	0.000
predicted_SO	0.566	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.207	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.157	-0.053
predicted_BB	0.124	-0.001
predicted_H	0.503	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.014	0.000
predicted_HR	0.037	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.188	-0.059
predicted_R	0.269	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.272	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.233	-0.079
predicted_SO	0.569	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2667	0.2000	0.1333	0.0000	0.0667
last_10	0.20	9	-	28.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1429	0.1724	0.1786	0.1429	0.0714	0.0357	0.1786
season	0.60	9	-	28.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1429	0.1724	0.1786	0.1429	0.0714	0.0357	0.1786

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1720
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.4300
predicted_AVG	0.2098
predicted_BB	0.1570
predicted_H	0.7200
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.2474
predicted_R	0.4040
predicted_RBI	0.3950
predicted_SLG	0.3124
predicted_SO	0.5880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1720	0.1294	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1110	3.4300	3.2071	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2098	0.2099	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.1570	0.1249	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.7200	0.5104	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0560	0.0378	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2470	0.2474	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.4040	0.2768	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.3950	0.2797	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3120	0.3124	0.3121	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5560	0.5880	0.5656	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.143

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	2
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	624431
playerID	624431
playerName	Jose Trevino
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CIN
teamID	7

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 17

All-history rows before 20260516: 17

System season_avg: 0.3450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3448

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.6000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.294	2.000	-0.294	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.412	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.412	5.000	0.588	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.348	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.345	0.600	-0.095	-0.350
predicted_BB	0.765	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.176	3.000	-0.176	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.448	0.400	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.465	0.600	-0.065	-0.200
predicted_R	0.706	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.706	2.000	0.294	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.990	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.118	1.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.716	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.776	1.000	-0.526	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.588	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.294	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.412	-
predicted_AVG	0.348	-
predicted_BB	0.765	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.448	-
predicted_R	0.706	-
predicted_RBI	0.990	-
predicted_SLG	0.716	-
predicted_SO	0.588	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.303	0.009
predicted_3B	0.064	0.005
predicted_AB	3.483	0.071
predicted_AVG	0.348	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.740	-0.025
predicted_H	1.131	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.257	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.448	-0.000
predicted_R	0.710	0.004
predicted_RBI	1.055	0.065
predicted_SLG	0.716	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.617	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.303	0.000
predicted_3B	0.064	0.000
predicted_AB	3.483	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.320	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.736	-0.005
predicted_H	1.114	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.255	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.438	-0.010
predicted_R	0.690	-0.020
predicted_RBI	1.026	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.663	-0.053
predicted_SO	0.621	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.320 HR/AB=0.073

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	6.000	6.000	3.000	0.5556	0.6667	1.1667	0.5556	0.1111	0.6667	0.3333	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	15.000	7.000	8.000	6.000	0.3684	0.4783	0.7632	0.3684	0.0790	0.3947	0.2105	0.1579
season	0.60	17	-	58.000	20.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	12.000	13.000	10.000	0.3448	0.4648	0.7759	0.3448	0.1035	0.3276	0.2241	0.1724

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3200
predicted_3B	0.0720
predicted_AB	3.6080
predicted_AVG	0.3478
predicted_BB	0.6970
predicted_H	1.2550
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.2880
predicted_OBP	0.4477
predicted_R	0.7160
predicted_RBI	1.1700
predicted_SLG	0.7157
predicted_SO	0.6680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2940	0.3200	0.3034	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0720	0.0637	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4120	3.6080	3.4832	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3480	0.3478	0.3479	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7650	0.6970	0.7403	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.2550	1.1308	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2880	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4480	0.4477	0.4479	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7060	0.7160	0.7096	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9900	1.1700	1.0554	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7160	0.7157	0.7159	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5880	0.6680	0.6171	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.345

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2583

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.595	5.000	-0.595	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.400	0.408	0.267
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	2.000	1.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.800	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.400	0.469	0.400
predicted_R	0.548	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.548	2.000	0.452	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.357	1.000	0.643	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.451	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.444	0.400	0.556	0.600
predicted_SO	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.595	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.548	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.451	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.718	0.123
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.340	0.007
predicted_H	1.001	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.159	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.655	0.107
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.451	0.000
predicted_SO	0.799	-0.058

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.337	-0.002
predicted_H	0.986	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.044	0.000
predicted_HR	0.157	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.016
predicted_R	0.636	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.379	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.437	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.804	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	0.3478	0.4000	0.5217	0.3478	0.0435	0.1304	0.0870	0.0435
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	11.000	4.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3478	0.4524	0.2857	0.0476	0.0952	0.0952	0.1191
season	0.60	42	-	151.000	39.000	7.000	7.000	15.000	23.000	14.000	36.000	0.2583	0.3314	0.4437	0.2583	0.0464	0.0993	0.0927	0.2384

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8990
predicted_AVG	0.2760
predicted_BB	0.3490
predicted_H	1.0760
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_OBP	0.3419
predicted_R	0.8110
predicted_RBI	0.4200
predicted_SLG	0.4510
predicted_SO	0.7140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1640	0.1658	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5950	3.8990	3.7184	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2760	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3490	0.3395	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0760	1.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1710	0.1585	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3419	0.3420	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5480	0.8110	0.6547	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4200	0.3903	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4510	0.4510	0.4510	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.7140	0.7990	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Blake Dunn (694362) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 3

All-history rows before 20260516: 3

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.073	0.200
predicted_BB	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.429	0.200	-0.229	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.636	0.000	-0.436	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.471	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.307	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.689	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.879	-0.121
predicted_H	0.815	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.160	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.637	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.369	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.000
predicted_SO	0.975	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.307	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.689	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.035
predicted_BB	0.874	-0.005
predicted_H	0.803	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.159	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.023
predicted_R	0.620	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.359	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.431	-0.040
predicted_SO	0.981	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2727	0.4286	0.6364	0.2727	0.0909	0.0909	0.2727	0.2727
last_10	0.20	3	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2727	0.4286	0.6364	0.2727	0.0909	0.0909	0.2727	0.2727
season	0.60	3	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2727	0.4286	0.6364	0.2727	0.0909	0.0909	0.2727	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2300
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.7560
predicted_AVG	0.2530
predicted_BB	0.5170
predicted_H	0.9510
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_OBP	0.3444
predicted_R	0.5480
predicted_RBI	0.4270
predicted_SLG	0.4714
predicted_SO	0.9020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2300	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.7560	3.6893	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2530	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5170	0.8790	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9510	0.8154	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1910	0.1603	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3444	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5480	0.6372	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4270	0.3693	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4710	0.4714	0.4711	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9020	0.9754	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	694362
playerID	694362
playerName	Blake Dunn
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Dane Myers (667472) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2258

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.540	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	4.000	1.556	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.250	-0.226	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.386	0.167	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.400	-0.218	-0.233
predicted_R	1.111	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	1.111	1.000	-1.111	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	3.000	-0.444	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.419	1.000	-0.419	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.111	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	2.000	0.889	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.540	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.778	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.386	-
predicted_R	1.111	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.480	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.024	0.024
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.554	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.758	-0.020
predicted_H	0.904	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.108	-
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.386	0.000
predicted_R	1.125	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.571	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.000
predicted_SO	1.109	-0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.024	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.554	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.754	-0.005
predicted_H	0.891	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.108	0.000
predicted_HR	0.237	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.382	-0.004
predicted_R	1.094	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.555	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.459	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.116	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	6.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	10.000	6.000	7.000	0.2941	0.5000	0.6471	0.2941	0.1177	0.2353	0.3529	0.4118
last_10	0.20	9	-	31.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	10.000	0.2258	0.3846	0.4194	0.2258	0.0645	0.1290	0.2258	0.3226
season	0.60	9	-	31.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	10.000	0.2258	0.3846	0.4194	0.2258	0.0645	0.1290	0.2258	0.3226

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5840
predicted_AVG	0.2551
predicted_BB	0.7170
predicted_H	0.9140
predicted_HBP	0.1080
predicted_HR	0.2400
predicted_OBP	0.3863
predicted_R	1.1540
predicted_RBI	0.5740
predicted_SLG	0.4800
predicted_SO	1.1040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0740	0.0239	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5400	3.5840	3.5542	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2551	0.2550	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7780	0.7170	0.7583	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9140	0.9045	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1080	0.1080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2400	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3860	0.3863	0.3861	model_form_blend
predicted_R	1.1110	1.1540	1.1249	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5740	0.5713	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4800	0.4800	0.4800	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	1.1040	1.1087	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	6
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	667472
playerID	667472
playerName	Dane Myers
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 45

All-history rows before 20260516: 45

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2384

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.822	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.822	4.000	1.178	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.511	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.511	1.000	-0.511	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.911	0.000	-0.911	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.200	-0.325	-0.200
predicted_R	0.578	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.578	0.000	-0.578	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_SO	0.844	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.844	0.000	0.156	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.822	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.511	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.578	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	0.844	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.868	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.504	-0.007
predicted_H	0.856	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.145	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.590	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.000
predicted_SO	0.886	0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.868	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.500	-0.003
predicted_H	0.843	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.143	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.002
predicted_R	0.574	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.415	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.380	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.892	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.822

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.1905	0.2917	0.2857	0.1905	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	11.000	0.1951	0.2826	0.3171	0.1951	0.0244	0.0244	0.1220	0.2683
season	0.60	45	-	172.000	41.000	8.000	10.000	30.000	26.000	23.000	38.000	0.2384	0.3249	0.4593	0.2384	0.0581	0.1744	0.1337	0.2209

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2180
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9330
predicted_AVG	0.2233
predicted_BB	0.4930
predicted_H	0.8780
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_OBP	0.3092
predicted_R	0.6070
predicted_RBI	0.4380
predicted_SLG	0.3959
predicted_SO	0.9470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1780	0.2180	0.1945	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8220	3.9330	3.8677	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2233	0.2231	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5110	0.4930	0.5036	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8780	0.8556	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1520	0.1449	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3092	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5780	0.6070	0.5899	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4380	0.4274	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3959	0.3960	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8440	0.9470	0.8864	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2258

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.780	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.780	3.000	-0.780	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.667	-0.226	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.537	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.537	1.000	1.463	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.854	2.000	-0.854	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	1.000	-0.122	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.750	0.070	-0.350
predicted_R	0.463	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.463	1.000	-0.463	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.463	3.000	-0.463	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.122	1.000	-0.122	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.501	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.374	1.667	-0.374	-1.667
predicted_SO	0.951	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.951	0.000	-0.951	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.780	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.537	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.463	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.501	-
predicted_SO	0.951	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.728	-0.052
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.540	0.003
predicted_H	0.907	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.191	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.501	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.685	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.501	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.841	-0.110

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.728	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.537	-0.003
predicted_H	0.893	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.188	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.335	-0.030
predicted_R	0.487	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.666	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.448	-0.053
predicted_SO	0.846	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	0.3529	0.4762	0.8235	0.3529	0.1177	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	0.3235	0.4103	0.6471	0.3235	0.0882	0.2941	0.1471	0.0882
season	0.60	41	-	155.000	35.000	8.000	5.000	19.000	19.000	22.000	39.000	0.2258	0.3296	0.3742	0.2258	0.0323	0.1226	0.1419	0.2516

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2320
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6530
predicted_AVG	0.2669
predicted_BB	0.5450
predicted_H	0.9750
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.2060
predicted_OBP	0.3650
predicted_R	0.5560
predicted_RBI	0.7370
predicted_SLG	0.5008
predicted_SO	0.6820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.2320	0.2101	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7800	3.6530	3.7282	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2669	0.2670	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5370	0.5450	0.5403	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9750	0.9069	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2060	0.1906	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3650	0.3650	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4630	0.5560	0.5009	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.7370	0.6855	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5010	0.5008	0.5009	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9510	0.6820	0.8412	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Chris Paddack (663978) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 0

All-history rows before 20260516: 0

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	22.000	18.000	30.000	6.000	17.000	4.000	7.3636	1.6364	0.8182	1.3636	0.2727	0.7727	0.1818
last_10	0.35	7	30.200	26.000	41.000	10.000	27.000	6.000	7.6304	1.6630	0.8478	1.3370	0.3261	0.8804	0.1956
season	0.20	7	30.200	26.000	41.000	10.000	27.000	6.000	7.6304	1.6630	0.8478	1.3370	0.3261	0.8804	0.1956

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4090
predicted_ER	2.9280
predicted_ERA	6.0817
predicted_H	5.1260
predicted_HR	0.7010
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	3.7440
predicted_WHIP	1.5079

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.4090	1.7199	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.9280	3.4919	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.0817	6.0817	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	5.1260	6.6379	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7010	0.8583	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	3.7440	2.8266	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5079	1.5079	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	8
R	4
ER	4
BB	2
SO	2
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	84

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Brock Burke (656271) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 21

All-history rows before 20260516: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.619	2.000	-0.619	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.810	0.000	-0.810	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.829	1.000	0.271	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.143	1.000	0.857	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	0.0000	1.3125	0.0000	0.1875	1.1250	0.9375
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	5.000	9.000	9.000	11.000	4.3548	1.7419	0.4839	0.8710	0.8710	1.0645
season	0.20	21	20.200	6.000	17.000	13.000	24.000	2.6129	1.4516	0.2903	0.8226	0.6290	1.1613

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6320
predicted_ER	0.3590
predicted_ERA	3.2281
predicted_H	0.7650
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9880
predicted_WHIP	1.3965

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6320	0.2642	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3590	0.1501	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2281	3.2281	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7650	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9880	1.5769	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3965	1.3965	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.61
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	656271
playerID	656271
playerName	Brock Burke
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.727	3.000	-0.727	-3.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.364	4.000	-0.364	-4.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.932	0.000	0.168	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.136	0.000	-0.136	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.3529	0.7059	1.4118	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	5.000	8.000	12.000	1.000	1.6875	1.2188	0.1875	0.4688	0.7500	1.1250	0.0938
season	0.20	21	21.200	4.000	13.000	13.000	25.000	1.000	1.6615	1.2000	0.1846	0.6000	0.6000	1.1539	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5290
predicted_ER	0.3720
predicted_ERA	3.3442
predicted_H	0.7090
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0970
predicted_WHIP	1.2377

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5290	0.2238	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3720	0.1574	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3442	3.3442	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7090	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1260	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0970	1.0410	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2377	1.2377	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	3.32
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Pierce Johnson (572955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.850	1.000	-0.850	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.725	1.000	0.375	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.850	2.000	-0.850	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.4000	0.4000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	1.000	3.7241	1.2414	0.4138	0.7241	0.5172	0.7241	0.1035
season	0.20	20	18.000	7.000	17.000	6.000	17.000	2.000	3.5000	1.2778	0.3889	0.9444	0.3333	0.9444	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4000
predicted_ER	0.4020
predicted_ERA	3.6209
predicted_H	0.8070
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8920
predicted_WHIP	1.2070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4000	0.1615	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4020	0.1623	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6209	3.6209	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8070	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8920	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2070	1.2070	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	572955
playerID	572955
playerName	Pierce Johnson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.865	1.000	0.135	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	1.000	1.100	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	4.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.3077	1.8462	0.9231	1.3846	0.4615	0.6923	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	11.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	7.0000	1.5556	0.7778	1.2222	0.3333	0.8889	0.5556
season	0.20	19	18.000	7.000	14.000	9.000	18.000	5.000	3.5000	1.2778	0.3889	0.7778	0.5000	1.0000	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3990
predicted_ER	0.5910
predicted_ERA	5.3206
predicted_H	1.0500
predicted_HR	0.3100
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9000
predicted_WHIP	1.4492

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3990	0.1611	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5910	0.2386	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3206	5.3206	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0500	1.0202	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3100	0.1252	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9000	1.5559	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4492	1.4492	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Luis Mey (682825) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 5

All-history rows before 20260516: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.600	1.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.600	2.000	-1.600	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	2.000	3.3750	1.2500	0.3750	0.6250	0.6250	1.6250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	5	8.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	2.000	3.3750	1.2500	0.3750	0.6250	0.6250	1.6250	0.2500
season	0.20	5	8.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	2.000	3.3750	1.2500	0.3750	0.6250	0.6250	1.6250	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2880
predicted_ER	0.2910
predicted_ERA	3.9999
predicted_H	0.5650
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7320
predicted_WHIP	1.3025

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2880	0.0949	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2910	0.0959	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9999	3.9999	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5650	0.1861	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1040	0.0343	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7320	0.2412	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3025	1.3025	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	682825
playerID	682825
playerName	Luis Mey
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Home Team: CLE

Steven Kwan (680757) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2013

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.878	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.878	4.000	1.122	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.201	0.000	0.399	0.600
predicted_BB	0.561	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.561	1.000	-0.561	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.780	0.000	2.220	3.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.200	0.292	0.400
predicted_R	0.439	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.439	0.000	0.561	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.244	1.000	1.756	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.220	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.258	0.000	0.342	0.600
predicted_SO	0.512	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.512	0.000	0.488	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.878	-
predicted_AVG	0.165	-
predicted_BB	0.561	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.439	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.220	-
predicted_SO	0.512	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.862	-0.016
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.000
predicted_BB	0.572	0.011
predicted_H	0.584	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.401	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.224	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.220	0.000
predicted_SO	0.530	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.862	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.576	0.004
predicted_H	0.601	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.016
predicted_R	0.420	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.234	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.215	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.526	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.155 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.878

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	0.0526	0.2174	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.0526	0.2105	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	4.000	0.1053	0.2444	0.1316	0.1053	0.0000	0.0263	0.1842	0.1053
season	0.60	41	-	159.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	18.000	23.000	21.000	0.2013	0.3081	0.2579	0.2013	0.0063	0.0629	0.1447	0.1321

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1180
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8400
predicted_AVG	0.1651
predicted_BB	0.5880
predicted_H	0.6340
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2811
predicted_R	0.3460
predicted_RBI	0.2430
predicted_SLG	0.2199
predicted_SO	0.5560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.1180	0.1345	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8780	3.8400	3.8625	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1650	0.1651	0.1650	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5610	0.5880	0.5720	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6340	0.5844	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0300	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2811	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4390	0.3460	0.4009	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2430	0.2235	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2200	0.2199	0.2200	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5120	0.5560	0.5300	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.201

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	680757
playerID	680757
playerName	Steven Kwan
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 46

All-history rows before 20260516: 46

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2202

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.196	1.000	-0.196	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.652	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.652	4.000	1.348	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.750	-0.220	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.696	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.696	0.000	-0.696	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.804	3.000	-0.804	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.600	-0.347	-0.600
predicted_R	0.565	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.565	0.000	-0.565	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.370	1.000	-0.370	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.609	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.609	0.000	0.391	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.652	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.696	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.565	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.341	-
predicted_SO	0.609	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.659	0.007
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.662	-0.034
predicted_H	0.814	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.067	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000
predicted_R	0.539	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.372	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.628	0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.659	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.006
predicted_BB	0.667	0.005
predicted_H	0.837	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.084	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.009
predicted_R	0.565	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.009
predicted_SO	0.624	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2105	0.3043	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	7.000	0.2286	0.3778	0.2571	0.2286	0.0000	0.0857	0.2286	0.2000
season	0.60	46	-	168.000	37.000	9.000	6.000	17.000	26.000	32.000	28.000	0.2202	0.3465	0.3810	0.2202	0.0357	0.1012	0.1905	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6700
predicted_AVG	0.2230
predicted_BB	0.6140
predicted_H	0.8190
predicted_HBP	0.0670
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.3393
predicted_R	0.5010
predicted_RBI	0.3750
predicted_SLG	0.3406
predicted_SO	0.6550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1960	0.1770	0.1882	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6520	3.6700	3.6594	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2230	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6960	0.6140	0.6622	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8190	0.8137	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0670	0.0670	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0840	0.0816	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3393	0.3391	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5650	0.5010	0.5386	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3750	0.3721	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3410	0.3406	0.3408	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6090	0.6550	0.6280	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Chase DeLauter (800050) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 38

All-history rows before 20260516: 38

System season_avg: 0.2830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2828

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.816	4.000	0.184	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.283	0.000	-0.033	0.250
predicted_BB	0.526	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	1.000	0.474	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.079	0.000	-0.079	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.200	0.035	0.200
predicted_R	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.412	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.490	0.000	-0.240	0.250
predicted_SO	0.421	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.421	0.000	0.579	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.816	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.412	-
predicted_SO	0.421	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.806	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.508	-0.018
predicted_H	0.986	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.112	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000
predicted_R	0.395	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.621	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.412	0.000
predicted_SO	0.409	-0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.806	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.004
predicted_BB	0.512	0.004
predicted_H	1.014	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.115	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.013
predicted_R	0.414	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.651	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.430	0.018
predicted_SO	0.406	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.816

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	0.2222	0.3182	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.2564	0.3182	0.3846	0.2564	0.0256	0.1538	0.1026	0.0769
season	0.60	38	-	145.000	41.000	10.000	1.000	6.000	26.000	16.000	20.000	16.000	0.2828	0.3653	0.4897	0.2828	0.0414	0.1793	0.1379	0.1103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1930
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.7910
predicted_AVG	0.2621
predicted_BB	0.4820
predicted_H	0.9940
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_OBP	0.3402
predicted_R	0.3560
predicted_RBI	0.6230
predicted_SLG	0.4120
predicted_SO	0.3920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.1930	0.2346	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0150	0.0215	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8160	3.7910	3.8059	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2621	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.4820	0.5082	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9940	0.9857	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1150	0.1120	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3402	0.3401	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.3560	0.3946	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6230	0.6212	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4120	0.4120	0.4120	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4210	0.3920	0.4092	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.283

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	800050
playerID	800050
playerName	Chase DeLauter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Kyle Manzardo (700932) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 31

All-history rows before 20260516: 31

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.548	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.548	4.000	1.452	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.000	0.218	0.400
predicted_BB	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.645	0.000	1.355	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.266	0.000	0.134	0.400
predicted_R	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.290	0.000	0.710	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.236	0.000	0.164	0.400
predicted_SO	1.226	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.226	1.000	0.774	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.548	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.355	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.290	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.288	-
predicted_SO	1.226	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.033
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.561	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.369	0.014
predicted_H	0.707	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.037	-
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.000
predicted_R	0.358	0.068
predicted_RBI	0.379	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.000
predicted_SO	1.157	-0.069

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.561	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.372	0.003
predicted_H	0.727	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.037	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.008
predicted_R	0.376	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.398	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.275	-0.013
predicted_SO	1.149	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.3529	0.2353	0.0000	0.1765	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.1944	0.2683	0.2500	0.1944	0.0000	0.1111	0.1111	0.2778
season	0.60	31	-	110.000	20.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	9.000	11.000	38.000	0.1818	0.2661	0.2364	0.1818	0.0091	0.0818	0.1000	0.3454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5810
predicted_AVG	0.2045
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_H	0.7330
predicted_HBP	0.0370
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.2876
predicted_R	0.4640
predicted_RBI	0.3940
predicted_SLG	0.2881
predicted_SO	1.0510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.1800	0.1296	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5480	3.5810	3.5610	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2045	0.2042	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3550	0.3910	0.3691	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7330	0.7069	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0370	0.0370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0380	0.0392	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2876	0.2878	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2900	0.4640	0.3584	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3940	0.3794	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2880	0.2881	0.2880	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2260	1.0510	1.1572	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	700932
playerID	700932
playerName	Kyle Manzardo
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Daniel Schneemann (682177) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 32

All-history rows before 20260516: 32

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2752

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.406	3.000	0.594	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.333	-0.025	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.438	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.938	1.000	0.062	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.333	0.042	0.067
predicted_R	0.469	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.469	0.000	0.531	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.459	0.333	0.541	0.667
predicted_SO	1.094	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.094	0.000	-0.094	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	1.094	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.467	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.464	0.026
predicted_H	0.834	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.000
predicted_R	0.476	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.506	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.059	-0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.006
predicted_BB	0.468	0.003
predicted_H	0.858	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.083	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.003
predicted_R	0.499	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.019
predicted_SO	1.051	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3684	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2667	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	11.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.2059	0.1765	0.0000	0.1177	0.1765	0.3235
season	0.60	32	-	109.000	30.000	8.000	4.000	16.000	15.000	14.000	35.000	0.2752	0.3577	0.4587	0.2752	0.0367	0.1468	0.1284	0.3211

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4170
predicted_AVG	0.2411
predicted_BB	0.5050
predicted_H	0.8240
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.3398
predicted_R	0.4880
predicted_RBI	0.5000
predicted_SLG	0.3638
predicted_SO	1.0040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1690	0.2182	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.4170	3.4674	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2411	0.2410	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.5050	0.4643	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8240	0.8337	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0820	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3398	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.4880	0.4765	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5000	0.5061	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3638	0.3639	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0940	1.0040	1.0587	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682177
playerID	682177
playerName	Daniel Schneemann
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Travis Bazzana (683953) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 15

All-history rows before 20260516: 15

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2400

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	5.000	0.667	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.400	-0.240	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.200	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.406	0.400	-0.206	-0.200
predicted_R	0.533	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.320	0.400	-0.320	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.800	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.393	0.060
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.737	-0.063
predicted_H	0.820	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.094	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000
predicted_R	0.511	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.446	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.623	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.393	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.742	0.005
predicted_H	0.843	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.094	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000
predicted_R	0.535	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.468	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.618	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.3529	0.4762	0.4118	0.3529	0.0000	0.1765	0.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	0.2647	0.4048	0.3824	0.2647	0.0294	0.1471	0.1765	0.1471
season	0.60	15	-	50.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	12.000	9.000	0.2400	0.4062	0.3200	0.2400	0.0200	0.1400	0.2400	0.1800

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1230
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5000
predicted_AVG	0.2600
predicted_BB	0.6230
predicted_H	0.9100
predicted_HBP	0.0940
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_OBP	0.3833
predicted_R	0.4710
predicted_RBI	0.4930
predicted_SLG	0.3647
predicted_SO	0.6630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.1230	0.0870	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.5000	3.3926	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2600	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8000	0.6230	0.7369	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9100	0.8199	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0940	0.0940	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0780	0.0729	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3833	0.3831	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.4710	0.5109	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4930	0.4460	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3647	0.3649	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6630	0.6225	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	683953
playerID	683953
playerName	Travis Bazzana
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Austin Hedges (595978) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1390

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.176	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.000	-0.028	0.250
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	-0.083	0.250
predicted_R	0.647	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.611	0.000	0.389	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.000	-0.157	0.250
predicted_SO	0.765	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.722	1.000	-0.722	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.176	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.647	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.223	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	0.006
predicted_H	0.696	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.000
predicted_R	0.607	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.253	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000
predicted_SO	0.781	0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.223	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.302	0.002
predicted_H	0.716	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.067	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.024
predicted_R	0.636	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.266	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.776	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1429	0.2500	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0714	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.2667	0.3333	0.4333	0.2667	0.0333	0.0667	0.1000	0.2667
season	0.60	17	-	54.000	15.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	5.000	13.000	0.2778	0.3333	0.4074	0.2778	0.0185	0.0741	0.0926	0.2407

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3100
predicted_AVG	0.2470
predicted_BB	0.3120
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.3128
predicted_R	0.5320
predicted_RBI	0.2960
predicted_SLG	0.3712
predicted_SO	0.8110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.1800	0.2156	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1760	3.3100	3.2232	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2470	0.2470	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.3120	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8180	0.6963	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0750	0.0653	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3128	0.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6470	0.5320	0.6065	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2960	0.2533	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3712	0.3711	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.8110	0.7812	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	595978
playerID	595978
playerName	Austin Hedges
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CLE
teamID	8

Angel Martínez (682657) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 33

All-history rows before 20260516: 33

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2756

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.848	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.848	4.000	0.152	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.250	-0.276	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.061	1.000	-1.061	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.400	-0.324	-0.400
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.576	1.000	-0.576	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.496	0.250	-0.496	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.879	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.879	1.000	0.121	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.848	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.477	-
predicted_SO	0.879	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.858	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.263	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.198	0.016
predicted_H	0.910	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.067	-
predicted_HR	0.197	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.561	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.507	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.477	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.931	0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.858	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.200	0.001
predicted_H	0.936	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.203	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.280	-0.034
predicted_R	0.588	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.532	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.450	-0.027
predicted_SO	0.924	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.848

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.5500	0.2500	0.1000	0.2000	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	0.2564	0.3256	0.4359	0.2564	0.0513	0.1026	0.0769	0.3077
season	0.60	33	-	127.000	35.000	7.000	7.000	19.000	18.000	6.000	29.000	0.2756	0.3235	0.4961	0.2756	0.0551	0.1496	0.0472	0.2283

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8730
predicted_AVG	0.2625
predicted_BB	0.2230
predicted_H	1.0170
predicted_HBP	0.0670
predicted_HR	0.2230
predicted_OBP	0.3143
predicted_R	0.5850
predicted_RBI	0.5640
predicted_SLG	0.4767
predicted_SO	1.0090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2120	0.1540	0.1890	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8480	3.8730	3.8579	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2625	0.2628	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.2230	0.1983	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.0170	0.9103	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0670	0.0670	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2230	0.1971	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3143	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.5850	0.5609	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5640	0.5073	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4770	0.4767	0.4769	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8790	1.0090	0.9306	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682657
playerID	682657
playerName	Angel Martínez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Brayan Rocchio (677587) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2690

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.295	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.295	3.000	0.705	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.000	-0.019	0.250
predicted_BB	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.341	1.000	-0.341	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	0.000	0.114	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.250	-0.098	0.000
predicted_R	0.386	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.386	0.000	-0.386	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.523	1.000	-0.523	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.000	-0.116	0.250
predicted_SO	0.386	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.386	1.000	-0.386	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.295	-
predicted_AVG	0.284	-
predicted_BB	0.341	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.386	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	-
predicted_SO	0.386	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.321	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.284	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.332	-0.009
predicted_H	0.844	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.057	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.387	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.482	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.372	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.443	0.057

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.321	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.335	0.002
predicted_H	0.868	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.046	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.021
predicted_R	0.406	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.506	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.440	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.3750	0.3889	0.4375	0.3750	0.0000	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.2727	0.3590	0.3030	0.2727	0.0000	0.1212	0.1212	0.1818
season	0.60	44	-	145.000	39.000	5.000	3.000	23.000	17.000	15.000	17.000	0.2690	0.3476	0.3655	0.2690	0.0207	0.1586	0.1035	0.1172

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1360
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3580
predicted_AVG	0.2837
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_H	0.9520
predicted_HBP	0.0570
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.3499
predicted_R	0.3890
predicted_RBI	0.5450
predicted_SLG	0.3716
predicted_SO	0.5260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1360	0.1229	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2950	3.3580	3.3205	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2840	0.2837	0.2839	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3410	0.3190	0.3321	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9520	0.8437	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0570	0.0570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0520	0.0449	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3499	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3860	0.3890	0.3872	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5450	0.4825	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3720	0.3716	0.3718	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3860	0.5260	0.4427	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	677587
playerID	677587
playerName	Brayan Rocchio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

Joey Cantillo (676282) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.222	1.000	-0.222	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.667	0.000	0.333	2.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.444	5.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.856	6.000	0.344	-0.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	4.556	4.000	-0.556	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.200	9.000	24.000	11.000	17.000	3.000	3.2838	1.4189	0.3649	0.9730	0.4460	0.6892	0.1216
last_10	0.35	9	45.100	15.000	40.000	20.000	41.000	5.000	2.9779	1.3235	0.3309	0.8823	0.4412	0.9044	0.1103
season	0.20	9	45.100	15.000	40.000	20.000	41.000	5.000	2.9779	1.3235	0.3309	0.8823	0.4412	0.9044	0.1103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2080
predicted_ER	2.0570
predicted_ERA	3.5351
predicted_H	4.9150
predicted_HR	0.6370
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.3870
predicted_WHIP	1.3598

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.2080	2.1038	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0570	2.0285	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5351	3.5351	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.9150	4.9576	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6370	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.1000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.3870	4.1932	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3598	1.3598	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	106

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.98
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	676282
playerID	676282
playerName	Joey Cantillo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.950	0.000	0.050	1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.010	1.000	0.990	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.450	3.000	-1.450	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	3.000	0.000	11.000	0.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.5625	0.0000	2.0625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	1.000	18.000	0.000	1.6875	0.8438	0.1875	0.7500	0.0938	1.6875	0.0000
season	0.20	20	20.200	7.000	19.000	4.000	29.000	1.000	3.0484	1.1129	0.3387	0.9194	0.1935	1.4032	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2410
predicted_ER	0.3540
predicted_ERA	3.1889
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3360
predicted_WHIP	1.0720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2410	0.1007	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3540	0.7299	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1889	3.1889	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8310	0.9293	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0750	0.6133	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3360	0.5585	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0720	1.0720	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	33

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.05
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	0.455	1.000	2.545	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.709	1.000	0.291	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.591	3.000	-0.591	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	4.000	11.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8571	0.0000	0.0000	0.8571	2.3571	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	0.000	2.000	5.000	17.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8077	0.0000	0.2308	0.5769	1.9615	0.0000
season	0.20	22	19.100	4.000	7.000	10.000	35.000	1.000	1.8621	0.8793	0.2069	0.3621	0.5172	1.8103	0.0517

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5160
predicted_ER	0.2820
predicted_ERA	2.5358
predicted_H	0.5970
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.4570
predicted_WHIP	1.1128

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.5160	1.9788	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2820	0.1159	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5358	2.5358	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5970	0.2454	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0780	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4570	1.1879	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1128	1.1128	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	2
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Hunter Gaddis (683769) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 12

All-history rows before 20260516: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.583	0.000	1.417	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.167	1.000	1.833	2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.642	1.100	-0.442	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	4.5000	2.0000	0.5000	1.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	5.000	10.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	5.4000	1.4400	0.6000	1.2000	0.2400	0.8400	0.2400
season	0.20	11	9.100	6.000	12.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	5.7857	1.6071	0.6429	1.2857	0.3214	0.8571	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_ER	0.3370
predicted_ERA	4.4350
predicted_H	0.7190
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6050
predicted_WHIP	1.4291

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2590	0.7467	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3370	1.4315	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4350	4.4350	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.7190	2.2203	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0880	0.0301	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6050	0.2068	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4291	1.4291	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	683769
playerID	683769
playerName	Hunter Gaddis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.950	0.000	-0.950	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.795	0.100	-0.595	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	2.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	5.4000	1.5000	0.6000	1.2000	0.3000	1.5000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.7500	0.3750	1.1250	0.2500
season	0.20	20	20.100	11.000	19.000	5.000	20.000	4.000	4.8689	1.1803	0.5410	0.9344	0.2459	0.9836	0.1967

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2450
predicted_ER	0.3380
predicted_ERA	4.3713
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7620
predicted_WHIP	1.3128

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2450	0.1020	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3380	0.1407	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3713	4.3713	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6690	0.2785	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1310	0.0545	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7620	0.9009	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3128	1.3128	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.87
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

20260516_KC@STL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.537258, "home_win_probability": 0.537258, "away_win_probability": 0.462742, "predicted_score_text": "KC 3 - 4 STL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "KC 3 - 4 STL", "confidence": 0.537258, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 3 - 4 STL", "winner": "STL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 3 - 4 STL", "winner": "STL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	KC 3 - 4 STL	STL	0.537	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	KC 3 - 4 STL	STL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away KC	4-6	0.400	4.10	4.40	-3	4L	average	average
Home STL	5-5	0.500	3.40	3.50	-1	1W	cold	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away KC	19-25	0.432	-20	-0.455	True
Home STL	25-18	0.581	2	0.047	True
Signal	-	-	0.501	0.725	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target KC	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target STL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized KC	32	9	1	0	1	0	9
Player finalized STL	33	9	3	0	3	1	9
Player model fractional KC	32.50	7.13	3.77	0.91	3.39	3.13	7.95
Player model fractional STL	32.82	7.63	4.32	0.96	3.66	2.85	8.11
Simulation box KC	33	6	3	0	3	3	4
Simulation box STL	33	10	4	1	4	0	9

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away KC	Starter	Noah Cameron	5	3	9	7	0	5.72	1.59	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Lucas Erceg	2	0	0	0	0	3.19	1.33	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Nick Mears	1	0	0	0	0	3.89	1.45	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Matt Strahm	0	1	0	3	0	4.05	1.28	True
Home STL	Starter	Kyle Leahy	5	3	3	6	3	4.08	1.46	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	George Soriano	1.20	0	0	0	0	3.43	1.41	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	JoJo Romero	1	0	1	0	0	3.34	1.22	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	Riley O'Brien	1.10	0	0	0	0	4.14	1.21	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: KC

Isaac Collins (686555) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 35

All-history rows before 20260516: 35

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.343	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.343	2.000	0.657	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.278	0.500
predicted_BB	0.543	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.543	2.000	-0.543	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.743	0.000	1.257	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.400	0.155	0.100
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	2.000	0.571	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.317	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.342	0.000	0.408	0.750
predicted_SO	1.057	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.057	0.000	-1.057	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.343	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.543	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.317	-
predicted_SO	1.057	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.349	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.522	-0.021
predicted_H	0.586	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.167	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.416	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.381	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.317	0.000
predicted_SO	0.982	-0.075

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.349	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.168	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.513	-0.009
predicted_H	0.562	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.043
predicted_R	0.387	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.354	-0.027
predicted_SLG	0.277	-0.040
predicted_SO	0.999	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.0625	0.2381	0.1250	0.0625	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	8.000	0.1935	0.3500	0.3548	0.1935	0.0323	0.1290	0.1935	0.2581
season	0.60	35	-	117.000	26.000	5.000	3.000	15.000	15.000	19.000	37.000	0.2222	0.3451	0.3419	0.2222	0.0256	0.1282	0.1624	0.3162

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3590
predicted_AVG	0.1949
predicted_BB	0.4900
predicted_H	0.6550
predicted_HBP	0.1670
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.3213
predicted_R	0.3960
predicted_RBI	0.4270
predicted_SLG	0.3174
predicted_SO	0.8700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1690	0.1534	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3430	3.3590	3.3494	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1949	0.1950	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5430	0.4900	0.5219	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6550	0.5859	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1670	0.1670	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0790	0.0736	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3213	0.3211	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.3960	0.4158	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4270	0.3807	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3170	0.3174	0.3172	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0570	0.8700	0.9824	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686555
playerID	686555
playerName	Isaac Collins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Carter Jensen (695600) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 36

All-history rows before 20260516: 36

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2358

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.417	4.000	0.583	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.500	0.014	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.806	2.000	0.194	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.600	-0.083	-0.350
predicted_R	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.528	1.000	-0.528	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.750	-0.165	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.167	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	0.000	0.833	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.386	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.388	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.526	0.026
predicted_H	0.750	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.342	-0.000
predicted_R	0.464	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.436	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000
predicted_SO	1.146	-0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.388	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.517	-0.009
predicted_H	0.720	-0.030
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.025
predicted_R	0.432	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.405	-0.031
predicted_SLG	0.335	-0.051
predicted_SO	1.166	0.020

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.2857	0.4211	0.4286	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.2857	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	15.000	0.1875	0.3250	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.0938	0.2188	0.4688
season	0.60	36	-	123.000	29.000	4.000	6.000	19.000	17.000	18.000	42.000	0.2358	0.3333	0.4146	0.2358	0.0488	0.1545	0.1463	0.3415

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3440
predicted_AVG	0.2375
predicted_BB	0.5650
predicted_H	0.7940
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.3416
predicted_R	0.4530
predicted_RBI	0.4590
predicted_SLG	0.3862
predicted_SO	1.1140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1950	0.1446	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	3.3440	3.3878	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2375	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5650	0.5260	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7940	0.7496	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0990	0.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3416	0.3418	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.4530	0.4644	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4590	0.4356	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3860	0.3862	0.3861	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.1140	1.1458	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	695600
playerID	695600
playerName	Carter Jensen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 45

All-history rows before 20260516: 45

System season_avg: 0.3090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3090

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	1.000	-0.267	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.956	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.956	5.000	0.044	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.309	0.400	-0.059	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.489	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.489	0.000	-0.489	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_H	1.310	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.222	2.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.405	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.381	0.400	-0.131	-0.150
predicted_R	0.489	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.489	0.000	0.511	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.511	1.000	1.489	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.584	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.506	0.600	-0.256	-0.350
predicted_SO	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	2.000	-0.778	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.956	-
predicted_AVG	0.334	-
predicted_BB	0.489	-
predicted_H	1.310	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.405	-
predicted_R	0.489	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.584	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.946	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.000
predicted_BB	0.486	-0.003
predicted_H	1.312	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.238	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.405	0.000
predicted_R	0.534	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.590	-0.000
predicted_SLG	0.584	0.000
predicted_SO	0.771	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.946	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.478	-0.008
predicted_H	1.259	-0.052
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.228	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.393	-0.012
predicted_R	0.496	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.548	-0.041
predicted_SLG	0.568	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.784	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.318 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.956

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.4000	0.4783	0.7500	0.4000	0.1000	0.2000	0.1500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	16.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	8.000	5.000	6.000	0.4103	0.4773	0.7949	0.4103	0.1026	0.1795	0.1282	0.1538
season	0.60	45	-	178.000	55.000	12.000	1.000	7.000	23.000	22.000	22.000	35.000	0.3090	0.3812	0.5056	0.3090	0.0393	0.1292	0.1236	0.1966

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2490
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.9330
predicted_AVG	0.3341
predicted_BB	0.4820
predicted_H	1.3140
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2360
predicted_OBP	0.4050
predicted_R	0.5980
predicted_RBI	0.5890
predicted_SLG	0.5842
predicted_SO	0.7610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.2490	0.2596	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9560	3.9330	3.9465	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3340	0.3341	0.3340	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4890	0.4820	0.4861	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3100	1.3140	1.3116	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2360	0.2384	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4050	0.4050	0.4050	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4890	0.5980	0.5339	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.5890	0.5896	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5840	0.5842	0.5841	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.7610	0.7710	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.309

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Salvador Perez (521692) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.953	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.953	5.000	0.047	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.200	0.050	0.050
predicted_BB	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.791	1.000	0.209	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.238	0.200	0.012	0.050
predicted_R	0.372	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.372	1.000	-0.372	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.335	0.200	-0.085	0.050
predicted_SO	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.930	1.000	0.070	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.953	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.140	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.243	-
predicted_R	0.372	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.338	-
predicted_SO	0.930	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.958	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.144	0.004
predicted_H	0.806	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.000
predicted_R	0.377	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.397	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	0.943	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.958	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.141	-0.003
predicted_H	0.774	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.041	0.000
predicted_HR	0.129	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.223	-0.020
predicted_R	0.350	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.369	-0.028
predicted_SLG	0.320	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.959	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.953

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.3810	0.2381	0.0476	0.0476	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.1795	0.2143	0.2564	0.1795	0.0256	0.1282	0.0513	0.2821
season	0.60	43	-	170.000	34.000	5.000	6.000	18.000	16.000	6.000	40.000	0.2000	0.2376	0.3353	0.2000	0.0353	0.1059	0.0353	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9640
predicted_AVG	0.2093
predicted_BB	0.1490
predicted_H	0.8300
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.2433
predicted_R	0.3830
predicted_RBI	0.4060
predicted_SLG	0.3380
predicted_SO	0.9610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1160	0.0870	0.1042	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9530	3.9640	3.9575	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2093	0.2091	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1400	0.1490	0.1437	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8300	0.8063	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1400	0.1341	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2430	0.2433	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3720	0.3830	0.3765	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4060	0.3965	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3380	0.3380	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9300	0.9610	0.9427	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	521692
playerID	521692
playerName	Salvador Perez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2663

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	4.150	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.024	6.000	-2.024	-4.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.000	0.234	0.500
predicted_BB	0.429	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	1.571	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.071	0.000	-0.071	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	0.417	0.750
predicted_R	0.548	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.548	1.000	0.452	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.402	0.000	0.098	0.500
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	4.150	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.548	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.111	-0.039
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.444	0.015
predicted_H	1.060	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.565	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.484	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000
predicted_SO	0.642	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	4.111	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.436	-0.008
predicted_H	1.018	-0.042
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.056	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.013
predicted_R	0.525	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.450	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.653	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.150

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	0.2273	0.3200	0.2727	0.2273	0.0000	0.1364	0.1364	0.0909
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	0.2750	0.3696	0.3500	0.2750	0.0000	0.1250	0.1500	0.1000
season	0.60	42	-	169.000	45.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	23.000	18.000	28.000	0.2663	0.3333	0.4024	0.2663	0.0177	0.1065	0.1065	0.1657

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2600
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	4.0540
predicted_AVG	0.2580
predicted_BB	0.4650
predicted_H	1.0460
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.3334
predicted_R	0.5900
predicted_RBI	0.4750
predicted_SLG	0.3699
predicted_SO	0.6060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2600	0.2753	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1500	4.0540	4.1106	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2580	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.4650	0.4438	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.0460	1.0602	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0550	0.0580	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3334	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5480	0.5900	0.5652	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.4750	0.4839	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3699	0.3700	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6060	0.6420	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Vinnie Pasquantino (686469) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.2010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2013

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2010

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.786	3.000	0.214	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.201	0.000	-0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.476	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.476	2.000	-0.476	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.762	0.000	-0.762	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.400	-0.288	-0.400
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	2.000	-0.429	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.346	0.000	-0.346	0.000
predicted_SO	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.786	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.476	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.039	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.796	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.469	-0.007
predicted_H	0.819	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.092	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.422	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.486	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.821	-0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.039	0.000
predicted_AB	3.796	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.461	-0.008
predicted_H	0.787	-0.033
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.089	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.009
predicted_R	0.392	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.452	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.835	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.2051	0.2791	0.2821	0.2051	0.0256	0.1026	0.1026	0.1538
season	0.60	42	-	159.000	32.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	21.000	18.000	20.000	36.000	0.2013	0.2880	0.3459	0.2013	0.0314	0.1321	0.1258	0.2264

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0270
predicted_AB	3.8100
predicted_AVG	0.2186
predicted_BB	0.4580
predicted_H	0.8330
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.3019
predicted_R	0.4120
predicted_RBI	0.4960
predicted_SLG	0.3275
predicted_SO	0.7690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.0750	0.0868	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0270	0.0394	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7860	3.8100	3.7958	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2186	0.2188	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4760	0.4580	0.4686	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8330	0.8194	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0960	0.0925	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3019	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4120	0.4220	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4960	0.4865	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3275	0.3278	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.7690	0.8210	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.201

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686469
playerID	686469
playerName	Vinnie Pasquantino
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	KC
teamID	12

Jac Caglianone (695506) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 35

All-history rows before 20260516: 35

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2358

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.514	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.514	2.000	-0.514	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.500	-0.236	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.343	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.343	1.000	0.657	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	1.000	-0.829	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.667	-0.064	-0.417
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.382	0.500	-0.382	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.143	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	1.000	-1.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.514	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.343	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.376	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.012
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.533	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.327	-0.016
predicted_H	0.754	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.034	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.472	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.194	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.000
predicted_SO	1.085	-0.058

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.533	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.321	-0.006
predicted_H	0.724	-0.030
predicted_HBP	0.034	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.030
predicted_R	0.439	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.180	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.104	0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.3529	0.2353	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2222	0.2821	0.3611	0.2222	0.0278	0.0833	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.60	35	-	123.000	29.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	16.000	12.000	40.000	0.2358	0.3139	0.3821	0.2358	0.0244	0.0488	0.0976	0.3252

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2310
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.5610
predicted_AVG	0.2349
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_H	0.8360
predicted_HBP	0.0340
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.3012
predicted_R	0.4960
predicted_RBI	0.2140
predicted_SLG	0.3761
predicted_SO	0.9970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2310	0.2123	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0170	0.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5140	3.5610	3.5327	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2349	0.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3430	0.3020	0.3267	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8360	0.7541	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0340	0.0340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0790	0.0736	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3012	0.3011	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.4960	0.4725	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2140	0.1935	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3760	0.3761	0.3760	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	0.9970	1.0850	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	695506
playerID	695506
playerName	Jac Caglianone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Michael Massey (686681) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 25

All-history rows before 20260516: 25

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2208

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.080	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.080	5.000	0.920	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.000	-0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.680	0.000	-0.680	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.480	0.000	-0.480	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SO	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.680	0.000	-0.680	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.080	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.080	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.241	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.434	-
predicted_SO	0.680	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.160	0.080
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.089	0.009
predicted_H	0.625	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.000
predicted_R	0.427	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.000
predicted_SO	0.653	-0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.160	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.087	-0.002
predicted_H	0.600	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.124	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.212	-0.029
predicted_R	0.397	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.419	-0.032
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.038
predicted_SO	0.664	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.5333	0.2000	0.0667	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	0.000	6.000	0.1818	0.1818	0.4242	0.1818	0.0606	0.1818	0.0000	0.1818
season	0.60	25	-	77.000	17.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	2.000	17.000	0.2208	0.2346	0.4286	0.2208	0.0390	0.1558	0.0260	0.2208

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2660
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2950
predicted_AVG	0.2183
predicted_BB	0.1040
predicted_H	0.7190
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.2409
predicted_R	0.4730
predicted_RBI	0.5190
predicted_SLG	0.4340
predicted_SO	0.6060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2800	0.2660	0.2748	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0800	3.2950	3.1598	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2183	0.2181	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0800	0.1040	0.0889	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7190	0.6253	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1460	0.1296	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2410	0.2409	0.2410	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4730	0.4271	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5190	0.4504	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4340	0.4340	0.4340	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6800	0.6060	0.6526	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686681
playerID	686681
playerName	Michael Massey
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Kyle Isbel (664728) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 34

All-history rows before 20260516: 34

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2685

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.176	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.176	5.000	0.824	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.200	-0.269	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.853	1.000	-0.853	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.200	-0.325	-0.200
predicted_R	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.200	-0.407	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.765	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	1.000	-0.765	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.176	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.382	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.043	0.014
predicted_AB	3.260	0.083
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.175	-0.001
predicted_H	0.712	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.375	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.233	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000
predicted_SO	0.771	0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.260	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.172	-0.003
predicted_H	0.683	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.051	0.000
predicted_HR	0.054	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.040
predicted_R	0.349	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.217	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.051
predicted_SO	0.784	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2778	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2424	0.2857	0.3333	0.2424	0.0000	0.0606	0.0606	0.2121
season	0.60	34	-	108.000	29.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	13.000	6.000	26.000	0.2685	0.3248	0.4074	0.2685	0.0278	0.0926	0.0556	0.2407

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0640
predicted_AB	3.3900
predicted_AVG	0.2431
predicted_BB	0.1740
predicted_H	0.8240
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2894
predicted_R	0.3640
predicted_RBI	0.2690
predicted_SLG	0.3723
predicted_SO	0.7800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1090	0.1145	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0640	0.0427	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1760	3.3900	3.2595	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2431	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.1740	0.1752	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.8240	0.7118	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0670	0.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2894	0.2892	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3820	0.3640	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2690	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3720	0.3723	0.3721	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.7800	0.7709	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	664728
playerID	664728
playerName	Kyle Isbel
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Noah Cameron (702070) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 7

All-history rows before 20260516: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	3.000	-2.000	-3.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	3.143	3.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	6.286	4.000	0.714	3.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.929	4.000	0.071	1.000
predicted_SO	9.000	9.000	9.000	Pitching_SO	4.571	4.000	4.429	5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.000	20.000	34.000	12.000	22.000	5.000	7.2000	1.8400	0.8000	1.3600	0.4800	0.8800	0.2000
last_10	0.35	7	35.200	22.000	44.000	14.000	32.000	5.000	5.5514	1.6262	0.6168	1.2336	0.3925	0.8972	0.1402
season	0.20	7	35.200	22.000	44.000	14.000	32.000	5.000	5.5514	1.6262	0.6168	1.2336	0.3925	0.8972	0.1402

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1330
predicted_ER	3.1780
predicted_ERA	5.7211
predicted_H	5.8340
predicted_HR	0.8110
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.5710
predicted_WHIP	1.5934

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.1330	1.0109	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.1780	2.5583	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.7211	5.7211	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	5.8340	6.4474	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8110	0.3844	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.5710	5.8488	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5934	1.5934	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	9
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	86

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	5.55
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	702070
playerID	702070
playerName	Noah Cameron
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.789	2.000	-0.789	-2.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.916	1.000	1.084	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.895	2.000	-0.895	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	1.8000	1.4000	0.2000	1.0000	0.4000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	12.000	0.9000	1.2000	0.1000	0.6000	0.6000	1.2000
season	0.20	19	18.100	7.000	15.000	12.000	17.000	3.4364	1.4727	0.3818	0.8182	0.6545	0.9273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4400
predicted_ER	0.3550
predicted_ERA	3.1925
predicted_H	0.8900
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0360
predicted_WHIP	1.3299

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4400	0.1785	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3550	0.1440	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1925	3.1925	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8900	0.3610	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0360	0.4202	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3299	1.3299	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.44
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Mears (683232) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.722	2.000	-0.722	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.767	1.000	0.233	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.5000	2.0000	0.5000	1.7500	0.2500	0.7500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	2.2500	1.3750	0.2500	0.8750	0.5000	0.7500	0.1250
season	0.20	18	15.200	5.000	13.000	8.000	12.000	1.000	2.8723	1.3404	0.3191	0.8298	0.5106	0.7660	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_ER	0.2990
predicted_ERA	3.8871
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6080
predicted_WHIP	1.4459

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2660	0.1036	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2990	0.1165	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8871	3.8871	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7350	0.2864	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6080	0.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4459	1.4459	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	683232
playerID	683232
playerName	Nick Mears
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Matt Strahm (621381) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 17

All-history rows before 20260516: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.824	1.000	2.176	2.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	0.200	-0.906	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.8571	1.0714	0.4286	0.8571	0.2143	0.6429	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	9.000	4.000	11.000	2.000	3.7241	1.3448	0.4138	0.9310	0.4138	1.1379	0.2069
season	0.20	17	16.100	7.000	14.000	7.000	17.000	3.000	3.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.8571	0.4286	1.0408	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_ER	0.2680
predicted_ERA	4.0458
predicted_H	0.5460
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5560
predicted_WHIP	1.2762

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2140	0.0843	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2680	1.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0458	4.0458	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.5460	2.0335	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0950	0.6436	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.5560	1.4313	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2762	1.2762	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	621381
playerID	621381
playerName	Matt Strahm
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Home Team: STL

José Fermin (820862) · BATTER · 3B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 0

All-history rows before 20260516: 0

System season_avg: 0.2439

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2439

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.008	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.536	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.376	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.807	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.099	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.437	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.392	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.865	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.008	-
predicted_AB	3.536	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.376	-
predicted_H	0.807	-
predicted_HR	0.099	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.437	-
predicted_RBI	0.392	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	0.865	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.006
predicted_3B	0.009	0.001
predicted_AB	3.577	0.041
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.003
predicted_BB	0.361	-0.015
predicted_H	0.826	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.001
predicted_R	0.446	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.404	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.006
predicted_SO	0.863	-0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.000
predicted_3B	0.009	0.000
predicted_AB	3.577	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.006
predicted_BB	0.366	0.005
predicted_H	0.847	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.005
predicted_R	0.468	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.009
predicted_SO	0.852	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.60	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7980
predicted_AVG	0.2439
predicted_BB	0.2830
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.3051
predicted_R	0.4960
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.3944
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1790	0.1487	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0080	0.0140	0.0089	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5360	3.7980	3.5773	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2439	0.2305	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3760	0.2830	0.3614	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8070	0.9260	0.8257	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0990	0.1220	0.1026	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3051	0.3025	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4370	0.4960	0.4463	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3920	0.4710	0.4044	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3944	0.3629	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8650	0.8540	0.8633	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Nathan Church (701675) · BATTER · LF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 34

All-history rows before 20260516: 34

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2441

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.735	4.000	0.265	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.006	0.000
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	1.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.912	1.000	0.088	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.400	-0.026	-0.150
predicted_R	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.441	1.000	-0.441	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.250	-0.128	0.000
predicted_SO	0.794	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.794	1.000	0.206	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.735	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.335	-
predicted_SO	0.794	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.748	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.187	0.011
predicted_H	0.783	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.420	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.327	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.000
predicted_SO	0.780	-0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.748	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.189	0.002
predicted_H	0.803	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.076	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.021
predicted_R	0.441	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.343	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.314	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.770	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1316
season	0.60	34	-	127.000	31.000	5.000	4.000	15.000	15.000	6.000	27.000	0.2441	0.2761	0.3780	0.2441	0.0315	0.1181	0.0472	0.2126

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7680
predicted_AVG	0.2331
predicted_BB	0.2030
predicted_H	0.8780
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.2729
predicted_R	0.3890
predicted_RBI	0.3690
predicted_SLG	0.3349
predicted_SO	0.7580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1380	0.1434	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7350	3.7680	3.7481	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2331	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.2030	0.1867	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8780	0.7826	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0800	0.0740	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2729	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.3890	0.4204	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3690	0.3274	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3350	0.3349	0.3350	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7940	0.7580	0.7797	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-CF
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	701675
playerID	701675
playerName	Nathan Church
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	STL
teamID	26

Iván Herrera (671056) · BATTER · DH · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2638

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	3.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	2.750	3.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.705	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.705	4.000	0.295	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.250	0.486	0.500
predicted_BB	0.636	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.977	1.000	2.023	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.396	0.400	0.354	0.350
predicted_R	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.545	1.000	0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.371	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.405	0.250	1.095	1.250
predicted_SO	0.773	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.773	1.000	0.227	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.705	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.636	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	0.773	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.802	0.097
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.542	-0.094
predicted_H	1.008	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.165	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.518	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.454	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000
predicted_SO	0.763	-0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.802	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.006
predicted_BB	0.549	0.007
predicted_H	1.034	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.165	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.364	0.014
predicted_R	0.543	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.476	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.014
predicted_SO	0.754	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	3.000	3.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.2273	0.2500	0.2273	0.2273	0.0000	0.0909	0.0000	0.0909
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	14.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.3256	0.3478	0.3953	0.3256	0.0000	0.1395	0.0233	0.2093
season	0.60	44	-	163.000	43.000	11.000	4.000	20.000	24.000	28.000	34.000	0.2638	0.3960	0.4049	0.2638	0.0245	0.1227	0.1718	0.2086

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2110
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9410
predicted_AVG	0.2656
predicted_BB	0.4080
predicted_H	1.0470
predicted_HBP	0.1650
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.3504
predicted_R	0.4800
predicted_RBI	0.4740
predicted_SLG	0.3709
predicted_SO	0.7500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2110	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7050	3.9410	3.8023	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2656	0.2658	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6360	0.4080	0.5420	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0470	1.0076	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1650	0.1650	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0670	0.0629	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3504	0.3502	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.4800	0.5182	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4740	0.4540	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3709	0.3710	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7730	0.7500	0.7635	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	3
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	671056
playerID	671056
playerName	Iván Herrera
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	STL
teamID	26

Pedro Pagés (686780) · BATTER · C · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 28

All-history rows before 20260516: 28

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.393	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.393	4.000	-1.393	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.250	-0.211	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.233	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.250	-0.255	-0.250
predicted_R	0.357	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	1.000	0.643	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.321	1.000	0.679	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.964	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.964	2.000	0.036	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.393	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.233	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.348	-
predicted_SO	0.964	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.423	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.143	-0.000
predicted_H	0.604	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.000
predicted_R	0.368	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.269	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	0.979	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.423	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.144	0.002
predicted_H	0.620	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.132	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.214	-0.019
predicted_R	0.386	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.282	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.966	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.3125	0.1250	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	13.000	0.1429	0.1667	0.2571	0.1429	0.0286	0.0286	0.0286	0.3714
season	0.60	28	-	95.000	20.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	10.000	4.000	27.000	0.2105	0.2549	0.3684	0.2105	0.0421	0.0947	0.0421	0.2842

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1030
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4720
predicted_AVG	0.1944
predicted_BB	0.1420
predicted_H	0.6750
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.2326
predicted_R	0.3860
predicted_RBI	0.2990
predicted_SLG	0.3485
predicted_SO	1.0020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.1030	0.1055	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3930	3.4720	3.4233	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1944	0.1942	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.1420	0.1426	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6750	0.6041	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1420	0.1284	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2330	0.2326	0.2328	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3860	0.3681	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2990	0.2688	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3480	0.3485	0.3482	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9640	1.0020	0.9786	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686780
playerID	686780
playerName	Pedro Pagés
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	STL
teamID	26

Alec Burleson (676475) · BATTER · 1B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2798

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.098	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.098	5.000	-0.098	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.400	-0.030	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.415	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.415	0.000	-0.415	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.146	2.000	-0.146	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.400	-0.094	-0.150
predicted_R	0.512	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.756	1.000	-0.756	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.452	0.400	-0.202	-0.150
predicted_SO	0.756	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.756	2.000	1.244	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.268	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.098	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.415	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.756	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.138	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.278	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.359	-0.056
predicted_H	1.121	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000
predicted_R	0.478	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.546	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	0.802	0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.138	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.364	0.005
predicted_H	1.150	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.107	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.014
predicted_R	0.501	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.573	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.003
predicted_SO	0.792	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.098

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.3043	0.3043	0.3478	0.3044	0.0000	0.0435	0.0000	0.2174
last_10	0.20	10	-	44.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	11.000	0.2727	0.2889	0.3864	0.2727	0.0227	0.0909	0.0227	0.2500
season	0.60	41	-	168.000	47.000	11.000	6.000	31.000	21.000	17.000	31.000	0.2798	0.3441	0.4524	0.2798	0.0357	0.1845	0.1012	0.1845

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2340
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1950
predicted_AVG	0.2778
predicted_BB	0.2790
predicted_H	1.1650
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_OBP	0.3223
predicted_R	0.4280
predicted_RBI	0.5690
predicted_SLG	0.4150
predicted_SO	0.8690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2680	0.2340	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0980	4.1950	4.1377	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2778	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4150	0.2790	0.3593	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.1650	1.1207	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1120	0.1049	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3223	0.3221	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.4280	0.4776	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5690	0.5460	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4150	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7560	0.8690	0.8023	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676475
playerID	676475
playerName	Alec Burleson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	STL
teamID	26

Masyn Winn (691026) · BATTER · SS · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 39

All-history rows before 20260516: 39

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2568

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1030

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	1.000	-0.205	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.910	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.795	5.000	0.205	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.200	-0.007	0.050
predicted_BB	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	1.000	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	0.974	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.200	-0.083	0.050
predicted_R	0.447	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.436	0.000	0.564	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.410	0.000	1.590	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.355	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.358	0.400	0.642	0.600
predicted_SO	0.842	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.821	2.000	0.179	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.910	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.342	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.355	-
predicted_SO	0.842	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	0.010
predicted_3B	0.050	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.899	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.339	-0.003
predicted_H	0.958	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.095	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.423	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.340	-0.000
predicted_SLG	0.355	0.000
predicted_SO	0.817	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.899	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.006
predicted_BB	0.344	0.004
predicted_H	0.983	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.095	0.000
predicted_HR	0.032	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.006
predicted_R	0.444	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.356	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.004
predicted_SO	0.806	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.910

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2500	0.3478	0.3500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2791	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.0790	0.0790	0.1842
season	0.60	38	-	148.000	38.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	16.000	17.000	13.000	32.000	0.2568	0.3253	0.3581	0.2568	0.0068	0.1081	0.0878	0.2162

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2350
predicted_3B	0.0460
predicted_AB	3.8820
predicted_AVG	0.2458
predicted_BB	0.3350
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HBP	0.0950
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.3182
predicted_R	0.3890
predicted_RBI	0.3390
predicted_SLG	0.3551
predicted_SO	0.7800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.2350	0.2207	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0460	0.0502	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9100	3.8820	3.8987	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2458	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3420	0.3350	0.3392	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	0.9540	0.9576	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0950	0.0950	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0308	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3182	0.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.3890	0.4235	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3390	0.3396	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3550	0.3551	0.3550	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8420	0.7800	0.8169	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	691026
playerID	691026
playerName	Masyn Winn
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	STL
teamID	26

Jordan Walker (691023) · BATTER · RF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.3130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3129

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.6000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	0.762	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.881	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.881	5.000	0.119	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.313	0.600	-0.063	-0.350
predicted_BB	0.452	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	1.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.214	3.000	-0.214	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.310	1.000	-0.310	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.600	-0.136	-0.350
predicted_R	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.810	1.000	0.190	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.810	2.000	0.190	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.633	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.613	1.200	-0.113	-0.700
predicted_SO	1.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	1.000	-0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.881	-
predicted_AVG	0.312	-
predicted_BB	0.452	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.810	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	0.633	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.907	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.000
predicted_BB	0.437	-0.015
predicted_H	1.201	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.317	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.380	-0.000
predicted_R	0.783	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.814	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.633	0.000
predicted_SO	1.127	-0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.907	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.316	0.003
predicted_BB	0.443	0.006
predicted_H	1.233	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.325	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.005
predicted_R	0.822	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.854	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.631	-0.002
predicted_SO	1.113	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.316 HR/AB=0.083

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.881

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.3636	0.3913	0.8636	0.3636	0.1364	0.3182	0.0454	0.2273
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	12.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	10.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.6579	0.3158	0.0790	0.1842	0.1579	0.2632
season	0.60	42	-	163.000	51.000	10.000	13.000	34.000	34.000	19.000	49.000	0.3129	0.3859	0.6135	0.3129	0.0798	0.2086	0.1166	0.3006

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9450
predicted_AVG	0.3124
predicted_BB	0.4160
predicted_H	1.2320
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.3260
predicted_OBP	0.3795
predicted_R	0.7450
predicted_RBI	0.8340
predicted_SLG	0.6334
predicted_SO	1.0690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.2840	0.2568	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8810	3.9450	3.9072	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3120	0.3124	0.3122	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4520	0.4160	0.4373	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.2320	1.2013	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3260	0.3165	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3795	0.3798	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8100	0.7450	0.7834	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	0.8340	0.8139	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6330	0.6334	0.6332	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.0690	1.1269	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.313

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	691023
playerID	691023
playerName	Jordan Walker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	STL
teamID	26

Thomas Saggese (695336) · BATTER · 2B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 17

All-history rows before 20260516: 17

System season_avg: 0.1400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1404

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.353	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.353	2.000	0.647	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.145	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_BB	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.188	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.197	0.000	-0.197	0.000
predicted_R	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.209	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_SO	1.235	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.235	2.000	-0.235	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.353	-
predicted_AVG	0.145	-
predicted_BB	0.235	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.188	-
predicted_R	0.294	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.209	-
predicted_SO	1.235	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.371	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.145	0.000
predicted_BB	0.216	-0.019
predicted_H	0.440	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.188	0.000
predicted_R	0.294	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.148	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.209	0.000
predicted_SO	1.201	-0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.371	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.134	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.218	0.003
predicted_H	0.452	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.187	-0.001
predicted_R	0.309	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.155	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.197	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.185	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.134 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4286
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	13.000	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.0000	0.4062
season	0.60	17	-	57.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	21.000	0.1404	0.1967	0.1754	0.1404	0.0175	0.0702	0.3684

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1010
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4050
predicted_AVG	0.1452
predicted_BB	0.1800
predicted_H	0.4950
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.1881
predicted_R	0.2950
predicted_RBI	0.1630
predicted_SLG	0.2089
predicted_SO	1.1380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1010	0.1120	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3530	3.4050	3.3714	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1450	0.1452	0.1451	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2350	0.1800	0.2156	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.4950	0.4401	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1880	0.1881	0.1880	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2940	0.2950	0.2944	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1630	0.1481	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2090	0.2089	0.2090	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2350	1.1380	1.2007	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	695336
playerID	695336
playerName	Thomas Saggese
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	STL
teamID	26

Victor Scott II (687363) · BATTER · CF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 36

All-history rows before 20260516: 36

System season_avg: 0.1830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1827

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.889	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.889	2.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.183	0.000	0.484	0.667
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.528	0.000	1.472	2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.667	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.246	0.000	0.421	0.667
predicted_R	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.260	0.000	0.407	0.667
predicted_SO	0.889	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.889	0.000	0.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.889	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.253	-
predicted_R	0.361	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.313	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.063	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.952	0.063
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.231	0.009
predicted_H	0.499	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.088	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.253	-0.000
predicted_R	0.384	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.187	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000
predicted_SO	0.880	-0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.063	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.952	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.234	0.003
predicted_H	0.512	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.234	-0.019
predicted_R	0.402	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.196	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.287	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.869	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1429	0.2000	0.3571	0.1429	0.0714	0.0714	0.0714	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.1786	0.2581	0.3214	0.1786	0.0357	0.0357	0.1071	0.2857
season	0.60	36	-	104.000	19.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	13.000	8.000	32.000	0.1827	0.2456	0.2596	0.1827	0.0192	0.0577	0.0769	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.0500
predicted_AVG	0.1885
predicted_BB	0.2450
predicted_H	0.5750
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.2528
predicted_R	0.4190
predicted_RBI	0.2140
predicted_SLG	0.3129
predicted_SO	0.8650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.0750	0.0634	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8890	3.0500	2.9516	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1885	0.1888	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2450	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5750	0.4986	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1000	0.0878	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2530	0.2528	0.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3610	0.4190	0.3836	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2140	0.1871	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3130	0.3129	0.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	0.8650	0.8797	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.183

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	687363
playerID	687363
playerName	Victor Scott II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	STL
teamID	26

Kyle Leahy (681517) · PITCHER · Starter · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 8

All-history rows before 20260516: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.125	4.000	0.875	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.375	0.000	0.625	3.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	5.750	2.000	0.250	4.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.900	5.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	4.000	5.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.200	11.000	30.000	9.000	25.000	5.000	3.8571	1.5195	0.4286	1.1688	0.3507	0.9740	0.1948
last_10	0.35	8	39.200	19.000	46.000	17.000	32.000	6.000	4.3109	1.5882	0.4790	1.1597	0.4286	0.8067	0.1513
season	0.20	8	39.200	19.000	46.000	17.000	32.000	6.000	4.3109	1.5882	0.4790	1.1597	0.4286	0.8067	0.1513

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8870
predicted_ER	2.2650
predicted_ERA	4.0773
predicted_H	5.3920
predicted_HR	0.8060
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.6720
predicted_WHIP	1.4559

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.8870	2.4574	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.2650	2.6417	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0773	4.0773	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.3920	5.1911	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8060	0.3929	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.6720	3.8151	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4559	1.4559	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	3
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.31
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	681517
playerID	681517
playerName	Kyle Leahy
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

George Soriano (666277) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.650	1.000	-0.650	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.770	0.200	0.430	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	2.2500	1.7500	0.2500	1.2500	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	9.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	2.0000	1.4444	0.2222	1.0000	0.4444	0.8889	0.1111
season	0.20	20	18.200	7.000	13.000	10.000	16.000	2.000	3.3750	1.2321	0.3750	0.6964	0.5357	0.8571	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3990
predicted_ER	0.3560
predicted_ERA	3.4271
predicted_H	0.9240
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8860
predicted_WHIP	1.4131

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3990	0.1626	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3560	0.1451	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4271	3.4271	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9240	0.3765	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0562	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8860	0.3610	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4131	1.4131	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	666277
playerID	666277
playerName	George Soriano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

JoJo Romero (668941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	1.000	-0.409	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.818	0.000	-0.818	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.814	1.100	0.186	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.864	1.000	0.136	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	1.6875	0.9375	0.1875	0.5625	0.3750	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	2.000	2.7931	1.2414	0.3103	0.7241	0.5172	1.3448	0.2069
season	0.20	22	22.100	8.000	18.000	9.000	19.000	3.000	3.2239	1.2090	0.3582	0.8060	0.4030	0.8508	0.1343

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4040
predicted_ER	0.3720
predicted_ERA	3.3441
predicted_H	0.8110
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0460
predicted_WHIP	1.2153

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4040	0.1722	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3720	0.1585	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3441	3.3441	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8110	0.9194	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1150	0.0490	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0460	1.0196	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2153	1.2153	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.22
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668941
playerID	668941
playerName	JoJo Romero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Riley O'Brien (676617) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.936	1.000	0.164	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.136	0.000	-1.136	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	3.6000	0.8000	0.4000	0.6000	0.2000	1.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	6.000	13.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	5.5862	1.5517	0.6207	1.3448	0.2069	1.1379	0.1035
season	0.20	22	22.000	6.000	18.000	2.000	25.000	1.000	2.4545	0.9091	0.2727	0.8182	0.0909	1.1364	0.0454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_ER	0.4600
predicted_ERA	4.1368
predicted_H	0.9230
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0540
predicted_WHIP	1.2099

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2870	0.1219	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4600	0.1953	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1368	4.1368	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9230	0.3919	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1320	0.0561	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0540	0.4476	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2099	1.2099	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676617
playerID	676617
playerName	Riley O'Brien
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

20260516_LAD@LAA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.536484, "home_win_probability": 0.46351600000000004, "away_win_probability": 0.536484, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 3 - 2 LAA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 3 - 2 LAA", "confidence": 0.536484, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "LAD 3 - 2 LAA", "winner": "LAD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 LAA", "winner": "LAD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	LAD 3 - 2 LAA	LAD	0.536	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	LAD 4 - 2 LAA	LAD	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away LAD	5-5	0.500	4.20	3.90	3	2W	average	average
Home LAA	3-7	0.300	2.60	4.70	-21	3L	cold	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away LAD	26-18	0.591	66	1.500	True
Home LAA	16-28	0.364	-32	-0.727	True
Signal	-	-	-2.227	-2.568	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target LAD	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target LAA	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Player finalized LAD	33	9	6	0	4	2	9
Player finalized LAA	35	9	2	0	2	2	10
Player model fractional LAD	33.04	7.85	5.08	1.40	4.60	3.96	7.28
Player model fractional LAA	32.96	6.98	3.65	1.05	3.36	3.75	9.00
Simulation box LAD	33	7	4	0	4	2	8
Simulation box LAA	32	5	2	1	2	2	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away LAD	Starter	Justin Wrobleski	7	2	5	3	2	2.98	1.10	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Tanner Scott	1	0	1	0	0	2.83	0.94	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Alex Vesia	0.20	0	1	1	0	4.94	1.39	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Kyle Hurt	0.10	0	1	1	0	2.89	1.15	True
Home LAA	Starter	José Soriano	6.10	2	6	2	2	3.08	1.30	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Ryan Zeferjahn	1.10	2	0	4	0	3.44	1.12	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Sam Bachman	1.10	0	2	0	0	3.54	1.01	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Kirby Yates	0	0	0	1	0	4.44	1.34	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: LAD

Hyeseong Kim (808975) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 28

All-history rows before 20260516: 28

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2706

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.036	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.036	4.000	0.964	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.250	-0.271	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.821	1.000	-0.821	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.250	-0.330	-0.250
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.321	0.000	-0.321	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.250	-0.353	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.036	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.319	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.113	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.258	-0.028
predicted_H	0.656	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.000
predicted_R	0.343	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.275	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.319	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.792	0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.113	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.263	0.005
predicted_H	0.686	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.036	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.372	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.298	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.301	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.775	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1333	0.1333	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0667	0.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.2188	0.2424	0.2812	0.2188	0.0000	0.0625	0.0312	0.2500
season	0.60	28	-	85.000	23.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	10.000	8.000	21.000	0.2706	0.3298	0.3529	0.2706	0.0118	0.1059	0.0941	0.2471

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0720
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.2400
predicted_AVG	0.2355
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	0.7630
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2808
predicted_R	0.3210
predicted_RBI	0.3170
predicted_SLG	0.3188
predicted_SO	0.8600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.0720	0.0714	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0360	0.0360	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0360	3.2400	3.1134	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2355	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2120	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7630	0.6556	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0346	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2808	0.2809	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3210	0.3433	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3170	0.2754	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3190	0.3188	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8600	0.7917	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	808975
playerID	808975
playerName	Hyeseong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Teoscar Hernández (606192) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 40

All-history rows before 20260516: 40

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2690

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	0.825	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	4.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.500	-0.019	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.975	2.000	0.025	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.500	-0.090	-0.250
predicted_R	0.525	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.525	1.000	0.475	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	2.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.421	1.250	0.079	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.125	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	0.000	-1.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.625	-
predicted_AVG	0.309	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.367	-
predicted_R	0.525	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.490	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.037
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.653	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000
predicted_BB	0.346	-0.029
predicted_H	1.015	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.035	-
predicted_HR	0.119	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.000
predicted_R	0.520	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.000
predicted_SO	1.079	-0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.653	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.353	0.007
predicted_H	1.063	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.035	0.000
predicted_HR	0.125	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.014
predicted_R	0.563	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.461	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.452	-0.038
predicted_SO	1.057	-0.022

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.291 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.4737	0.5000	0.7895	0.4737	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.3243	0.3750	0.4865	0.3243	0.0270	0.0811	0.0541	0.3243
season	0.60	40	-	145.000	39.000	7.000	5.000	20.000	21.000	15.000	45.000	0.2690	0.3395	0.4207	0.2690	0.0345	0.1379	0.1035	0.3103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2670
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6940
predicted_AVG	0.3090
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_H	1.1410
predicted_HBP	0.0350
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_OBP	0.3672
predicted_R	0.5120
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.4899
predicted_SO	1.0110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.2670	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6250	3.6940	3.6529	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3090	0.3090	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3030	0.3459	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.1410	1.0153	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0350	0.0350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1330	0.1193	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3670	0.3672	0.3671	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5250	0.5120	0.5197	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4790	0.4260	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4900	0.4899	0.4900	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.0110	1.0789	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	606192
playerID	606192
playerName	Teoscar Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Freddie Freeman (518692) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2699

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.881	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.881	4.000	-0.881	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.000	0.063	0.333
predicted_BB	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.405	0.000	0.595	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.048	0.000	-0.048	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.000	0.157	0.500
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.000	-0.090	0.333
predicted_SO	0.548	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.548	1.000	0.452	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.881	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.405	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.353	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	0.548	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.795	-0.086
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.445	0.040
predicted_H	0.984	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.087	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.000
predicted_R	0.349	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.382	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000
predicted_SO	0.559	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.795	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.010
predicted_BB	0.455	0.009
predicted_H	1.030	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.091	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.003
predicted_R	0.378	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.414	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.018
predicted_SO	0.547	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.881

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	0.2647	0.3750	0.4412	0.2647	0.0294	0.1177	0.1765	0.1765
season	0.60	42	-	163.000	44.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	20.000	15.000	17.000	23.000	0.2699	0.3425	0.4233	0.2699	0.0245	0.1227	0.1043	0.1411

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2470
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6700
predicted_AVG	0.2619
predicted_BB	0.5040
predicted_H	0.9610
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.3526
predicted_R	0.3370
predicted_RBI	0.3710
predicted_SLG	0.4032
predicted_SO	0.5740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2620	0.2470	0.2559	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0130	0.0195	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8810	3.6700	3.7948	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2619	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4050	0.5040	0.4454	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9610	0.9841	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0820	0.0867	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3530	0.3526	0.3528	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3370	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3710	0.3822	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.4032	0.4031	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5480	0.5740	0.5586	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	518692
playerID	518692
playerName	Freddie Freeman
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Smith (669257) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 32

All-history rows before 20260516: 32

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2581

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.875	4.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.250	-0.258	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.250	-0.319	-0.250
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.250	-0.379	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.821	-0.054
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.372	-0.003
predicted_H	0.914	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.430	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.472	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000
predicted_SO	0.765	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.004
predicted_BB	0.380	0.008
predicted_H	0.956	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.138	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.009
predicted_R	0.466	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.511	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.002
predicted_SO	0.749	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.875

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2353	0.3000	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.2222	0.2927	0.3611	0.2222	0.0278	0.0833	0.1111	0.2222
season	0.60	32	-	124.000	32.000	3.000	4.000	18.000	14.000	12.000	24.000	0.2581	0.3188	0.3790	0.2581	0.0323	0.1452	0.0968	0.1935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7380
predicted_AVG	0.2459
predicted_BB	0.3680
predicted_H	0.9190
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3090
predicted_R	0.4180
predicted_RBI	0.4740
predicted_SLG	0.3842
predicted_SO	0.7880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.1100	0.1004	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8750	3.7380	3.8205	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2459	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3680	0.3722	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9190	0.9136	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1340	0.1316	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3090	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.4180	0.4300	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4740	0.4716	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3842	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7880	0.7651	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	669257
playerID	669257
playerName	Will Smith
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2403

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-1.500	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.250	-0.240	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.725	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.659	1.000	0.341	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.841	1.000	-0.841	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.159	0.000	-0.159	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.400	-0.120	-0.150
predicted_R	0.675	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.614	0.000	0.386	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.386	0.000	0.614	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.500	-0.429	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.045	2.000	-0.045	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.725	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.675	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.150	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.875	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.670	-0.055
predicted_H	0.828	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.074	-
predicted_HR	0.154	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.641	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.373	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.395	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.167	0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.002
predicted_BB	0.684	0.014
predicted_H	0.866	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.074	0.000
predicted_HR	0.161	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.009
predicted_R	0.695	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.404	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.005
predicted_SO	1.143	-0.024

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.850

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1905	0.2609	0.3810	0.1905	0.0476	0.0476	0.0952	0.3810
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	12.000	0.1795	0.3043	0.3077	0.1795	0.0256	0.1026	0.1538	0.3077
season	0.60	40	-	154.000	37.000	8.000	7.000	17.000	27.000	29.000	46.000	0.2403	0.3704	0.4286	0.2403	0.0454	0.1104	0.1883	0.2987

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1970
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9120
predicted_AVG	0.2217
predicted_BB	0.5900
predicted_H	0.8670
predicted_HBP	0.0740
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_OBP	0.3312
predicted_R	0.5930
predicted_RBI	0.3920
predicted_SLG	0.3948
predicted_SO	1.1910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1970	0.1988	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8500	3.9120	3.8754	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2217	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7250	0.5900	0.6697	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8670	0.8275	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0740	0.0740	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1590	0.1537	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3312	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6750	0.5930	0.6414	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3920	0.3731	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3948	0.3949	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1500	1.1910	1.1668	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Call (669743) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2581

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	2.000	0.556	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.000	-0.008	0.250
predicted_BB	0.889	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	0.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.250	-0.150	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.323	0.000	0.177	0.500
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.889	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.288	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.489	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.801	-0.088
predicted_H	0.653	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.000
predicted_R	0.510	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.449	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.000
predicted_SO	0.707	0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.489	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.817	0.017
predicted_H	0.684	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.030
predicted_R	0.552	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.486	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.291	0.003
predicted_SO	0.692	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.1176	0.2727	0.1176	0.1177	0.1765	0.2353	0.2353
last_10	0.20	9	-	31.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	6.000	0.2581	0.4000	0.3226	0.2581	0.1290	0.2581	0.1935
season	0.60	9	-	31.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	6.000	0.2581	0.4000	0.3226	0.2581	0.1290	0.2581	0.1935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1310
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5820
predicted_AVG	0.2074
predicted_BB	0.6170
predicted_H	0.7430
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.3189
predicted_R	0.4130
predicted_RBI	0.5090
predicted_SLG	0.2883
predicted_SO	0.7890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1310	0.1925	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.5820	3.4888	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2074	0.2071	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8890	0.6170	0.8007	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7430	0.6532	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3189	0.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.4130	0.5096	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5090	0.4489	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2880	0.2883	0.2881	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7890	0.7066	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669743
playerID	669743
playerName	Alex Call
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Mookie Betts (605141) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 11

All-history rows before 20260516: 11

System season_avg: 0.1520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1522

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.182	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.182	5.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.152	0.000	0.098	0.250
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.204	0.000	0.046	0.250
predicted_R	0.636	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.000	-0.120	0.250
predicted_SO	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	2.000	0.364	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.182	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.235	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.386	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.010
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.159	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.191	0.009
predicted_H	0.777	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.000
predicted_R	0.615	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.616	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000
predicted_SO	0.665	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	4.159	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.008
predicted_BB	0.194	0.004
predicted_H	0.814	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.241	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.232	-0.003
predicted_R	0.666	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.667	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.009
predicted_SO	0.651	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 4.182

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	24.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.4167	0.1667	0.0833	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	0.1429	0.1818	0.3810	0.1429	0.0714	0.1667	0.0476	0.1429
season	0.60	11	-	46.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	2.000	7.000	0.1522	0.2041	0.3696	0.1522	0.0652	0.1739	0.0435	0.1522

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1190
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.1150
predicted_AVG	0.1877
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	0.7720
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.2290
predicted_OBP	0.2351
predicted_R	0.5730
predicted_RBI	0.6090
predicted_SLG	0.3863
predicted_SO	0.7210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1190	0.1005	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1820	4.1150	4.1593	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1877	0.1879	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.2070	0.1905	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.7720	0.7773	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2290	0.2297	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2350	0.2351	0.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.5730	0.6146	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6090	0.6163	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3860	0.3863	0.3861	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.7210	0.6648	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.152

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	605141
playerID	605141
playerName	Mookie Betts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Max Muncy (571970) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2766

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	0.878	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.439	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.439	3.000	0.561	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.667	0.223	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.537	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.537	1.000	-0.537	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.951	2.000	1.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.293	1.000	-0.293	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.750	0.126	-0.250
predicted_R	0.756	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.756	2.000	0.244	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.439	1.000	0.561	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.559	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.567	1.667	0.183	-0.917
predicted_SO	0.951	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.951	0.000	0.049	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.439	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.537	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.756	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.559	-
predicted_SO	0.951	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.456	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.511	-0.026
predicted_H	0.808	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.291	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000
predicted_R	0.767	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.496	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.559	0.000
predicted_SO	0.940	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.456	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.522	0.011
predicted_H	0.846	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.305	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.002
predicted_R	0.831	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.537	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.541	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.921	-0.020

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.088

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.7778	0.2778	0.1667	0.2778	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	0.1875	0.2973	0.4688	0.1875	0.0938	0.1562	0.1562	0.3125
season	0.60	41	-	141.000	39.000	5.000	12.000	18.000	31.000	22.000	39.000	0.2766	0.3742	0.5674	0.2766	0.0851	0.1277	0.1560	0.2766

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4820
predicted_AVG	0.2567
predicted_BB	0.4730
predicted_H	0.8940
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.3210
predicted_OBP	0.3464
predicted_R	0.7830
predicted_RBI	0.5480
predicted_SLG	0.5594
predicted_SO	0.9240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.0880	0.1082	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4390	3.4820	3.4564	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2567	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5370	0.4730	0.5111	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8940	0.8083	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.3210	0.2906	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3464	0.3462	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7560	0.7830	0.7669	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5480	0.4956	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5590	0.5594	0.5592	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9510	0.9240	0.9401	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	571970
playerID	571970
playerName	Max Muncy
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.3070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3067

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3070

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.705	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.705	4.000	0.295	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.307	0.250	-0.057	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.136	1.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.227	1.000	-0.227	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.250	-0.108	0.000
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.864	3.000	-0.864	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.540	1.000	-0.290	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.795	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.795	1.000	0.205	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.705	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.493	-
predicted_SO	0.795	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.682	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.285	0.012
predicted_H	0.864	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.081	-
predicted_HR	0.240	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.322	-0.000
predicted_R	0.514	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.760	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.000
predicted_SO	0.756	-0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.682	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.291	0.006
predicted_H	0.904	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.081	0.000
predicted_HR	0.252	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.021
predicted_R	0.556	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.823	0.063
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.001
predicted_SO	0.741	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.0588	0.2000	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	0.000	5.000	11.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.6944	0.2778	0.1389	0.3056	0.0833	0.1111
season	0.60	44	-	163.000	50.000	8.000	10.000	38.000	24.000	12.000	35.000	0.3067	0.3575	0.5399	0.3068	0.0614	0.2331	0.0736	0.2147

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1170
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6480
predicted_AVG	0.2503
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_H	0.9130
predicted_HBP	0.0810
predicted_HR	0.2550
predicted_OBP	0.3217
predicted_R	0.4680
predicted_RBI	0.8030
predicted_SLG	0.4933
predicted_SO	0.7000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1170	0.1555	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7050	3.6480	3.6817	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2503	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.3030	0.2852	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9130	0.8639	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0810	0.0810	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2550	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3217	0.3219	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.4680	0.5136	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.8030	0.7598	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4930	0.4933	0.4931	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7950	0.7000	0.7562	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.307

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Justin Wrobleski (680736) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 7

All-history rows before 20260516: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.571	1.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.714	7.000	0.286	-5.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.714	7.000	-1.714	-4.000
predicted_IP	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.314	8.200	0.686	-1.200
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	3.143	7.000	1.857	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 7.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	35.200	8.000	27.000	6.000	18.000	2.000	2.0187	0.9252	0.2243	0.7570	0.1682	0.5047	0.0561
last_10	0.35	7	44.200	12.000	33.000	11.000	22.000	2.000	2.4179	0.9851	0.2687	0.7388	0.2463	0.4925	0.0448
season	0.20	7	44.200	12.000	33.000	11.000	22.000	2.000	2.4179	0.9851	0.2687	0.7388	0.2463	0.4925	0.0448

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8850
predicted_ER	2.3350
predicted_ERA	2.9823
predicted_H	5.8500
predicted_HR	0.5990
predicted_IP	7.0000
predicted_SO	4.8700
predicted_WHIP	1.0977

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.8850	1.9455	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3350	2.1588	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9823	2.9823	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.8500	4.3507	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5990	0.8099	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	7.1000	7.0000	7.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.8700	3.8863	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0977	1.0977	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	7.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	5
HR	1
BF	26
Pitches	105

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	34
Pitching_ER	7
Pitching_ERA	2.42
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	8.2
Pitching_Pitches	100
Pitching_R	7
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	67
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	680736
playerID	680736
playerName	Justin Wrobleski
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.870	1.000	0.130	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	2.000	0.100	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	1.0345	0.1035
season	0.20	20	18.100	3.000	9.000	2.000	18.000	2.000	1.4727	0.6000	0.1636	0.4909	0.1091	0.9818	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2600
predicted_ER	0.3140
predicted_ERA	2.8274
predicted_H	0.6830
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9780
predicted_WHIP	0.9432

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2600	0.1055	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3140	0.1274	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8274	2.8274	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6830	0.2770	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0402	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9780	0.9911	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9432	0.9432	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.47
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Vesia (681911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.421	1.000	0.579	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.721	1.000	-0.521	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.105	3.000	-0.105	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	3.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	7.3636	1.6364	0.8182	1.0909	0.5454	1.6364
last_10	0.35	10	7.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	11.000	6.4286	1.5714	0.7143	0.8571	0.7143	1.5714
season	0.20	19	15.100	5.000	8.000	8.000	21.000	2.9348	1.0435	0.3261	0.5217	0.5217	1.3696

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3090
predicted_ER	0.3660
predicted_ERA	4.9378
predicted_H	0.6150
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7900
predicted_WHIP	1.3858

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3090	0.1197	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3660	0.1418	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9378	4.9378	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6150	0.8508	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0540	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.7900	2.1436	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3858	1.3858	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681911
playerID	681911
playerName	Alex Vesia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Hurt (669165) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 12

All-history rows before 20260516: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	-0.900	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	0.000	-0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.6000	0.4000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.4000	0.2000	1.2000
season	0.20	12	12.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	16.000	0.7500	0.6667	0.0833	0.5000	0.1667	1.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_ER	0.1760
predicted_ERA	2.8909
predicted_H	0.4390
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5890
predicted_WHIP	1.1494

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1920	0.0699	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1760	0.0641	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8909	2.8909	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4390	0.7958	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0480	0.0175	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5890	0.8504	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1494	1.1494	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	669165
playerID	669165
playerName	Kyle Hurt
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Home Team: LAA

Jose Siri (642350) · BATTER · LF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 0

All-history rows before 20260516: 0

System season_avg: 0.2439

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2439

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.183	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.589	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.416	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.895	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.923	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.589	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.416	-
predicted_H	0.895	-
predicted_HR	0.094	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	-
predicted_R	0.480	-
predicted_RBI	0.427	-
predicted_SLG	0.391	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.622	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.395	-0.021
predicted_H	0.900	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.098	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.003
predicted_R	0.482	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.434	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.001
predicted_SO	0.912	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.622	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.388	-0.007
predicted_H	0.849	-0.051
predicted_HBP	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.092	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.015
predicted_R	0.436	-0.047
predicted_RBI	0.392	-0.042
predicted_SLG	0.372	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.928	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.60	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7980
predicted_AVG	0.2439
predicted_BB	0.2830
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.3051
predicted_R	0.4950
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.3944
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1830	0.1790	0.1824	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5890	3.7980	3.6219	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2439	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4160	0.2830	0.3951	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8950	0.9260	0.8999	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0940	0.1220	0.0984	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3270	0.3051	0.3236	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4800	0.4950	0.4824	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4270	0.4710	0.4339	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3910	0.3944	0.3915	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.8540	0.9121	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Oswald Peraza (672724) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 29

All-history rows before 20260516: 29

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2647

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.517	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.517	3.000	-1.517	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.241	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.241	0.000	1.759	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.931	0.000	-0.931	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.000	0.170	0.500
predicted_R	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.345	0.000	-0.345	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.379	0.000	-0.379	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.405	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.000	-0.451	0.000
predicted_SO	0.931	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.931	1.000	1.069	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.517	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.241	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.345	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.405	-
predicted_SO	0.931	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.538	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.239	-0.002
predicted_H	0.773	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.000
predicted_R	0.352	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.353	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.405	0.000
predicted_SO	0.921	-0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.538	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.235	-0.004
predicted_H	0.729	-0.044
predicted_HBP	0.120	0.000
predicted_HR	0.131	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.256	-0.054
predicted_R	0.318	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.319	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.355	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.938	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.0833	0.0556	0.2778
season	0.60	29	-	102.000	27.000	4.000	5.000	11.000	10.000	7.000	27.000	0.2647	0.3304	0.4510	0.2647	0.0490	0.1078	0.0686	0.2647

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1180
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5710
predicted_AVG	0.2397
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	0.8560
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_OBP	0.3097
predicted_R	0.3620
predicted_RBI	0.3890
predicted_SLG	0.4050
predicted_SO	0.9060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.1180	0.1302	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5170	3.5710	3.5380	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2397	0.2399	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2410	0.2370	0.2394	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8560	0.7728	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1560	0.1401	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3097	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3450	0.3620	0.3516	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3890	0.3529	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4050	0.4050	0.4050	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9310	0.9060	0.9213	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	672724
playerID	672724
playerName	Oswald Peraza
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Vaughn Grissom (687093) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.684	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.000	0.243	0.500
predicted_BB	0.474	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	0.000	1.100	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.000	0.159	0.500
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.550	0.000	0.450	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.386	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.414	0.000	0.836	1.250
predicted_SO	0.368	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.350	2.000	-0.350	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.684	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.474	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.386	-
predicted_SO	0.368	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.697	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.453	-0.021
predicted_H	0.839	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.121	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.554	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000
predicted_SO	0.462	0.094

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.697	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.444	-0.008
predicted_H	0.791	-0.047
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.113	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.009
predicted_R	0.322	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.501	-0.054
predicted_SLG	0.372	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.471	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.2105	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	0.1389	0.2439	0.2500	0.1389	0.0278	0.1667	0.1389	0.1667
season	0.60	19	-	70.000	18.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	7.000	9.000	7.000	0.2571	0.3375	0.4143	0.2571	0.0286	0.1429	0.1286	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2070
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7200
predicted_AVG	0.2295
predicted_BB	0.4160
predicted_H	0.8540
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.3075
predicted_R	0.3380
predicted_RBI	0.5620
predicted_SLG	0.3860
predicted_SO	0.6230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.2070	0.2423	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6840	3.7200	3.6973	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2295	0.2298	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4740	0.4160	0.4525	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8540	0.8389	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1220	0.1207	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3075	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.3380	0.3569	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5620	0.5544	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3860	0.3860	0.3860	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3680	0.6230	0.4624	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687093
playerID	687093
playerName	Vaughn Grissom
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jo Adell (666176) · BATTER · RF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 45

All-history rows before 20260516: 45

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2629

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.889	4.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.000	-0.013	0.250
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.022	0.000	-0.022	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.000	-0.053	0.250
predicted_R	0.356	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.356	0.000	-0.356	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.472	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.000	-0.144	0.250
predicted_SO	0.956	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.956	2.000	-0.956	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.889	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.356	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.472	-
predicted_SO	0.956	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.040
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.822	-0.067
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000
predicted_BB	0.126	0.015
predicted_H	0.927	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.109	-
predicted_HR	0.185	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.355	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.556	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.472	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.966	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.822	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.124	-0.002
predicted_H	0.875	-0.052
predicted_HBP	0.109	0.000
predicted_HR	0.174	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.253	-0.049
predicted_R	0.321	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.502	-0.054
predicted_SLG	0.405	-0.067
predicted_SO	0.984	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.889

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3000	0.7222	0.2778	0.1111	0.2222	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	11.000	0.2424	0.2973	0.5152	0.2424	0.0606	0.1515	0.0303	0.3333
season	0.60	45	-	175.000	46.000	5.000	6.000	25.000	16.000	5.000	43.000	0.2629	0.3032	0.3943	0.2629	0.0343	0.1429	0.0286	0.2457

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7250
predicted_AVG	0.2593
predicted_BB	0.1480
predicted_H	0.9660
predicted_HBP	0.1090
predicted_HR	0.1930
predicted_OBP	0.3019
predicted_R	0.3530
predicted_RBI	0.5790
predicted_SLG	0.4717
predicted_SO	0.9810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.2090	0.1512	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8890	3.7250	3.8218	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2593	0.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.1480	0.1262	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9660	0.9270	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1090	0.1090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1930	0.1853	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3019	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3560	0.3530	0.3548	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5790	0.5560	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4720	0.4717	0.4719	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9560	0.9810	0.9662	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666176
playerID	666176
playerName	Jo Adell
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Logan O'Hoppe (681351) · BATTER · C · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 24

All-history rows before 20260516: 24

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2051

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2050

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	2.000	-0.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.458	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_SO	0.875	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.458	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.283	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.048	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.272	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.438	-0.020
predicted_H	0.622	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.080	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.395	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.245	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.283	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.871	-0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.048	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.272	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.430	-0.008
predicted_H	0.587	-0.035
predicted_HBP	0.080	0.000
predicted_HR	0.051	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.034
predicted_R	0.357	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.221	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.241	-0.042
predicted_SO	0.887	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2143	0.3125	0.2143	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.2143
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	0.1562	0.2703	0.2500	0.1562	0.0312	0.0312	0.1250	0.3438
season	0.60	24	-	78.000	16.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	9.000	11.000	21.000	0.2051	0.3226	0.2564	0.2051	0.0128	0.1026	0.1410	0.2692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3080
predicted_AVG	0.2086
predicted_BB	0.4060
predicted_H	0.6900
predicted_HBP	0.0800
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.3089
predicted_R	0.4280
predicted_RBI	0.2700
predicted_SLG	0.2827
predicted_SO	0.8650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0420	0.0570	0.0477	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.3080	3.2720	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2086	0.2088	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4580	0.4060	0.4383	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6900	0.6217	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0800	0.0800	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0610	0.0542	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3089	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.4280	0.3951	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2700	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2830	0.2827	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.8650	0.8712	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681351
playerID	681351
playerName	Logan O'Hoppe
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAA
teamID	13

Nolan Schanuel (694384) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 40

All-history rows before 20260516: 40

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2579

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.975	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.975	3.000	0.025	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.000	-0.008	0.250
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.025	0.000	-0.025	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.250	-0.060	0.000
predicted_R	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.000	-0.127	0.250
predicted_SO	0.725	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.725	1.000	-0.725	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.975	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.375	-
predicted_SO	0.725	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.947	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.299	-0.001
predicted_H	0.944	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.000
predicted_R	0.345	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.000
predicted_SO	0.772	0.047

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.947	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.040
predicted_BB	0.294	-0.005
predicted_H	0.890	-0.053
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.049	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.040
predicted_R	0.311	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.280	-0.030
predicted_SLG	0.327	-0.048
predicted_SO	0.786	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.975

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.3077	0.3415	0.4103	0.3077	0.0000	0.0256	0.0513	0.2564
season	0.60	40	-	159.000	41.000	10.000	3.000	20.000	14.000	12.000	29.000	0.2579	0.3103	0.3774	0.2579	0.0189	0.1258	0.0755	0.1824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2560
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9060
predicted_AVG	0.2652
predicted_BB	0.2980
predicted_H	1.0360
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3188
predicted_R	0.3370
predicted_RBI	0.3400
predicted_SLG	0.3750
predicted_SO	0.8400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2560	0.2524	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9750	3.9060	3.9469	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2652	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.2980	0.2992	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.0360	0.9435	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0560	0.0524	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3188	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.3370	0.3447	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3400	0.3103	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3750	0.3750	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7250	0.8400	0.7718	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	694384
playerID	694384
playerName	Nolan Schanuel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Zach Neto (687263) · BATTER · SS · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 45

All-history rows before 20260516: 45

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2286

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.889	1.000	0.111	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	1.000	-0.229	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.622	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.622	2.000	-0.622	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.343	1.000	-0.343	-1.000
predicted_R	0.644	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.644	0.000	-0.644	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.411	1.000	-0.411	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.400	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.400	0.000	1.600	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.889	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.622	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.644	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.450	-
predicted_SO	1.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.026	0.004
predicted_AB	3.828	-0.061
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.618	-0.004
predicted_H	0.945	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.094	-
predicted_HR	0.169	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.630	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.456	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.000
predicted_SO	1.319	-0.081

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.828	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.607	-0.011
predicted_H	0.891	-0.053
predicted_HBP	0.094	0.000
predicted_HR	0.159	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.338	-0.027
predicted_R	0.569	-0.061
predicted_RBI	0.412	-0.044
predicted_SLG	0.421	-0.030
predicted_SO	1.343	0.024

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.889

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.2941	0.4545	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	11.000	0.2778	0.3864	0.5278	0.2778	0.0556	0.1389	0.1667	0.3056
season	0.60	45	-	175.000	40.000	9.000	1.000	7.000	20.000	29.000	28.000	63.000	0.2286	0.3430	0.4114	0.2286	0.0400	0.1143	0.1600	0.3600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0310
predicted_AB	3.7420
predicted_AVG	0.2506
predicted_BB	0.6120
predicted_H	0.9370
predicted_HBP	0.0940
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.3653
predicted_R	0.6110
predicted_RBI	0.4510
predicted_SLG	0.4502
predicted_SO	1.2040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1800	0.1917	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0310	0.0257	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8890	3.7420	3.8283	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2506	0.2508	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6220	0.6120	0.6179	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9370	0.9446	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0940	0.0940	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1680	0.1692	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3653	0.3651	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6440	0.6110	0.6304	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4510	0.4563	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4500	0.4502	0.4501	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4000	1.2040	1.3191	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687263
playerID	687263
playerName	Zach Neto
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jorge Soler (624585) · BATTER · DH · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2148

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2150

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.634	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.634	4.000	0.366	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.035	0.250
predicted_BB	0.439	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.780	0.000	0.220	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.000	-0.060	0.250
predicted_R	0.488	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.683	0.000	-0.683	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.000	-0.173	0.250
predicted_SO	1.390	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.390	2.000	-0.390	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.634	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.439	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.488	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	1.390	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.667	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.405	-0.034
predicted_H	0.662	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.073	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.442	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	1.414	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.398	-0.007
predicted_H	0.624	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.073	0.000
predicted_HR	0.124	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.015
predicted_R	0.412	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.399	-0.043
predicted_SLG	0.320	-0.027
predicted_SO	1.439	0.025

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	0.1000	0.1429	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	16.000	0.1389	0.2250	0.2778	0.1389	0.0278	0.0556	0.0833	0.4444
season	0.60	41	-	149.000	32.000	7.000	8.000	28.000	20.000	18.000	57.000	0.2148	0.3103	0.4228	0.2148	0.0537	0.1879	0.1208	0.3826

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7150
predicted_AVG	0.1865
predicted_BB	0.3550
predicted_H	0.6930
predicted_HBP	0.0730
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.2664
predicted_R	0.4110
predicted_RBI	0.4600
predicted_SLG	0.3473
predicted_SO	1.4490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1820	0.1755	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6340	3.7150	3.6670	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1865	0.1862	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4390	0.3550	0.4048	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.6930	0.6616	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0730	0.0730	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1370	0.1328	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2664	0.2662	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4880	0.4110	0.4567	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4600	0.4422	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3473	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3900	1.4490	1.4140	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	624585
playerID	624585
playerName	Jorge Soler
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAA
teamID	13

Mike Trout (545361) · BATTER · CF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2436

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.545	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.545	3.000	0.455	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.909	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.864	0.000	-0.864	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.407	0.250	-0.407	-0.250
predicted_R	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.523	0.000	-0.523	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.494	0.000	-0.494	0.000
predicted_SO	1.182	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.182	1.000	-0.182	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.909	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	1.182	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.567	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.847	-0.062
predicted_H	0.787	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.162	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.666	-0.084
predicted_RBI	0.364	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.204	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.567	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.832	-0.015
predicted_H	0.743	-0.044
predicted_HBP	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.152	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.358	-0.003
predicted_R	0.601	-0.064
predicted_RBI	0.329	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.376	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.225	0.022

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	15.000	0.1944	0.3095	0.3056	0.1944	0.0278	0.0556	0.1667	0.4167
season	0.60	44	-	156.000	38.000	6.000	11.000	23.000	33.000	40.000	52.000	0.2436	0.4070	0.4936	0.2436	0.0705	0.1474	0.2564	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5980
predicted_AVG	0.2217
predicted_BB	0.7590
predicted_H	0.7980
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.3613
predicted_R	0.5450
predicted_RBI	0.3700
predicted_SLG	0.4008
predicted_SO	1.2350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1470	0.1405	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5450	3.5980	3.5668	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2217	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9090	0.7590	0.8472	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.7980	0.7874	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1650	0.1621	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3613	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.5450	0.6656	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3700	0.3641	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4008	0.4009	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1820	1.2350	1.2038	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	545361
playerID	545361
playerName	Mike Trout
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAA
teamID	13

José Soriano (667755) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.222	1.000	-0.222	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.111	1.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	4.111	5.000	-2.111	-3.000
predicted_IP	6.100	6.100	6.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.933	7.200	0.167	-1.100
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	6.778	7.000	-0.778	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	9.000	28.000	11.000	30.000	4.000	2.9634	1.4268	0.3293	1.0244	0.4024	1.0976	0.1463
last_10	0.35	9	54.100	10.000	37.000	20.000	61.000	5.000	1.6564	1.0491	0.1840	0.6810	0.3681	1.1227	0.0920
season	0.20	9	54.100	10.000	37.000	20.000	61.000	5.000	1.6564	1.0491	0.1840	0.6810	0.3681	1.1227	0.0920

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2610
predicted_ER	2.0050
predicted_ERA	3.0822
predicted_H	5.3220
predicted_HR	0.7430
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	6.1670
predicted_WHIP	1.2953

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.2610	2.1303	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0050	2.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0822	3.0822	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	5.3220	3.6581	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7430	0.3709	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.1000	6.0000	6.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	6.1670	6.0834	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2953	1.2953	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	6
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	95

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	29
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.66
Pitching_Flyouts	7
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.2
Pitching_Pitches	103
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	69
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	667755
playerID	667755
playerName	José Soriano
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Ryan Zeferjahn (666171) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 15

All-history rows before 20260516: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.733	0.000	-0.733	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	3.200	3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.320	1.000	-0.220	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.933	2.000	-1.933	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	1.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	1.2273	0.6818	0.1364	0.2727	0.4091	1.6364
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	5.000	7.000	7.000	18.000	3.3750	1.0500	0.3750	0.5250	0.5250	1.3500
season	0.20	15	21.200	10.000	12.000	11.000	29.000	4.1538	1.0615	0.4615	0.5538	0.5077	1.3385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5620
predicted_ER	0.5100
predicted_ERA	3.4423
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5960
predicted_WHIP	1.1190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5620	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.5100	1.3697	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4423	3.4423	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.9300	2.7013	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0930	0.0393	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5960	0.6752	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1190	1.1190	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	666171
playerID	666171
playerName	Ryan Zeferjahn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Bachman (696147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 15

All-history rows before 20260516: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.733	0.000	-0.733	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.153	1.100	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.467	1.000	0.533	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	1.000	1.5882	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	1.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	13.200	6.000	8.000	5.000	14.000	2.000	3.9512	0.9512	0.4390	0.5854	0.3659	1.0244	0.1463
season	0.20	15	20.100	7.000	11.000	10.000	22.000	2.000	3.0984	1.0328	0.3443	0.5410	0.4918	1.0820	0.0984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3950
predicted_ER	0.4980
predicted_ERA	3.5365
predicted_H	0.8790
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3100
predicted_WHIP	1.0062

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3950	0.1645	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4980	0.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5365	3.5365	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8790	0.3660	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1760	0.0733	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3100	1.7127	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0062	1.0062	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	696147
playerID	696147
playerName	Sam Bachman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Kirby Yates (489446) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 3

All-history rows before 20260516: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.733	1.000	-0.733	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	2.000	-1.333	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	2.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	6.7500	1.5000	0.7500	1.1250	0.3750	1.5000
last_10	0.35	3	2.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	6.7500	1.5000	0.7500	1.1250	0.3750	1.5000
season	0.20	3	2.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	6.7500	1.5000	0.7500	1.1250	0.3750	1.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1510
predicted_ER	0.1960
predicted_ERA	4.4433
predicted_H	0.3800
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.4010
predicted_WHIP	1.3366

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1510	0.0405	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1960	0.0525	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4433	4.4433	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3800	0.8338	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0123	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.4010	0.1075	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3366	1.3366	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	489446
playerID	489446
playerName	Kirby Yates
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

20260516_MIA@TB

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.600947, "home_win_probability": 0.600947, "away_win_probability": 0.399053, "predicted_score_text": "MIA 1 - 5 TB", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "MIA 1 - 5 TB", "confidence": 0.600947, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIA 1 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIA 1 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	MIA 1 - 5 TB	TB	0.601	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	MIA 1 - 5 TB	TB	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away MIA	4-6	0.400	4.20	5.50	-13	2L	average	weak
Home TB	8-2	0.800	4.90	2.90	20	1W	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away MIA	20-25	0.444	-15	-0.333	True
Home TB	29-14	0.674	27	0.628	True
Signal	-	-	0.961	1.306	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-15	MIA @ TB	2 - 7	TB	5	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target MIA	-	-	1	-	-	-	-
Game target TB	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized MIA	33	9	1	0	1	1	8
Player finalized TB	32	9	3	0	3	1	7
Player model fractional MIA	32.23	6.93	3.65	0.78	3.35	2.97	7.96
Player model fractional TB	31.27	7.73	4.32	0.82	3.85	3.42	6.97
Simulation box MIA	30	3	1	0	1	1	9
Simulation box TB	30	7	5	1	5	6	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away MIA	Starter	Sandy Alcantara	6	4	6	5	3	4.55	1.46	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Tyler Phillips	1.10	0	2	0	1	2.46	1.24	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Calvin Faucher	0.20	0	0	0	1	2.96	1.19	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Pete Fairbanks	0	1	0	2	1	5.58	1.32	True
Home TB	Starter	Nick Martinez	6	1	6	3	1	2.56	1.17	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Bryan Baker	1	0	0	0	0	3.25	1.27	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Cole Sulser	1	0	3	0	0	2.47	0.89	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Garrett Cleavinger	1	0	0	0	0	3.94	1.32	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: MIA

Kyle Stowers (669065) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2073

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2040

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	4.000	-0.727	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.773	0.000	-0.773	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.000	-0.059	0.250
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_SO	1.045	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.045	2.000	-0.045	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.284	-
predicted_SO	1.045	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.696	-0.031
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000
predicted_BB	0.447	-0.008
predicted_H	0.688	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.098	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.426	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.000
predicted_SO	1.011	-0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.696	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.441	-0.006
predicted_H	0.660	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.098	0.000
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.030
predicted_R	0.397	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.187	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.272	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.024	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.0625	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.0000	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	10.000	0.1944	0.2927	0.3056	0.1944	0.0278	0.0556	0.1111	0.2778
season	0.60	22	-	82.000	17.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	10.000	23.000	0.2073	0.3085	0.2927	0.2073	0.0122	0.0366	0.1220	0.2805

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6450
predicted_AVG	0.1922
predicted_BB	0.4330
predicted_H	0.7010
predicted_HBP	0.0980
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.2964
predicted_R	0.3780
predicted_RBI	0.2010
predicted_SLG	0.2843
predicted_SO	0.9550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1380	0.1653	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	3.6450	3.6959	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1922	0.1921	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.4330	0.4467	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7010	0.6880	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0980	0.0980	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0615	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2964	0.2962	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.3780	0.4258	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2010	0.2004	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2840	0.2843	0.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0450	0.9550	1.0109	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	669065
playerID	669065
playerName	Kyle Stowers
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Connor Norby (681393) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 38

All-history rows before 20260516: 38

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2302

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	0.816	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.316	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.316	4.000	-0.316	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.103	0.083
predicted_BB	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.763	1.000	0.237	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	1.000	-0.105	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.000	0.083
predicted_R	0.316	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.316	1.000	0.684	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.342	1.000	0.658	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.381	1.000	0.286	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.184	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.184	0.000	-1.184	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.316	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.395	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.316	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	1.184	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.366	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.377	-0.018
predicted_H	0.735	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.090	-
predicted_HR	0.109	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.358	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.301	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.000
predicted_SO	1.149	-0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.366	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.372	-0.005
predicted_H	0.706	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.090	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.030
predicted_R	0.333	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.281	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.359	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.163	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	13.000	0.2424	0.3421	0.3939	0.2424	0.0303	0.0909	0.1212	0.3939
season	0.60	38	-	126.000	29.000	7.000	4.000	13.000	12.000	15.000	45.000	0.2302	0.3333	0.3810	0.2302	0.0318	0.1032	0.1191	0.3571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4420
predicted_AVG	0.2332
predicted_BB	0.3490
predicted_H	0.8030
predicted_HBP	0.0900
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.3183
predicted_R	0.4210
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.3959
predicted_SO	1.0960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1890	0.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3160	3.4420	3.3665	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2332	0.2331	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3950	0.3490	0.3766	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8030	0.7352	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0900	0.0900	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1220	0.1088	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3183	0.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3160	0.4210	0.3580	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3330	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3959	0.3960	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1840	1.0960	1.1488	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	681393
playerID	681393
playerName	Connor Norby
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Xavier Edwards (669364) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.3130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3129

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.068	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_AB	3.830	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.705	4.000	0.295	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.313	0.500	-0.313	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.159	2.000	-1.159	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.401	0.500	-0.401	-0.500
predicted_R	0.705	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.705	0.000	-0.705	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.472	0.500	-0.472	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.477	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.477	1.000	0.523	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.068	-
predicted_AB	3.830	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.545	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.705	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.477	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.077	0.009
predicted_AB	3.797	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.282	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.517	-0.028
predicted_H	1.070	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.099	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.000
predicted_R	0.720	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.348	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000
predicted_SO	0.529	0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000
predicted_AB	3.797	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.510	-0.007
predicted_H	1.028	-0.043
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.095	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.357	-0.006
predicted_R	0.671	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.324	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.433	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.536	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.830

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.4211	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	5.000	6.000	0.2368	0.3256	0.4737	0.2368	0.0526	0.1053	0.1316	0.1579
season	0.60	44	-	163.000	51.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	15.000	31.000	24.000	21.000	0.3129	0.4011	0.4724	0.3129	0.0245	0.0920	0.1472	0.1288

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1710
predicted_3B	0.0890
predicted_AB	3.7500
predicted_AVG	0.2817
predicted_BB	0.4770
predicted_H	1.0560
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.3631
predicted_R	0.7420
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.4530
predicted_SO	0.6050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1710	0.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0680	0.0890	0.0766	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8300	3.7500	3.7972	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2817	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5450	0.4770	0.5171	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.0560	1.0702	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0980	0.0992	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3631	0.3630	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7050	0.7420	0.7202	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3450	0.3480	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4530	0.4530	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4770	0.6050	0.5294	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.313

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	669364
playerID	669364
playerName	Xavier Edwards
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Liam Hicks (689414) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 35

All-history rows before 20260516: 35

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2992

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2990

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.086	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.086	0.000	-0.086
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.629	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.629	4.000	0.371
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.000	-0.299
predicted_BB	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.314	0.000	-0.314
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.086	0.000	-1.086
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.257	0.000	-0.257
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.000	-0.359
predicted_R	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.571	0.000	-0.571
predicted_RBI	0.890	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.086	0.000	-1.086
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.535	0.000	-0.535
predicted_SO	0.314	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.314	1.000	0.686

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.629	-
predicted_AVG	0.256	-
predicted_BB	0.314	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.890	-
predicted_SLG	0.425	-
predicted_SO	0.314	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.663	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.304	-0.010
predicted_H	0.938	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.097	-
predicted_HR	0.182	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.524	-0.047
predicted_RBI	0.897	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.000
predicted_SO	0.348	0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.663	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.300	-0.004
predicted_H	0.901	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.097	0.000
predicted_HR	0.175	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.018
predicted_R	0.488	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.835	-0.062
predicted_SLG	0.412	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.353	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.2368	0.3095	0.3947	0.2368	0.0526	0.2368	0.0790	0.1053
season	0.60	35	-	127.000	38.000	3.000	9.000	38.000	20.000	11.000	11.000	0.2992	0.3586	0.5354	0.2992	0.0709	0.2992	0.0866	0.0866

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7140
predicted_AVG	0.2560
predicted_BB	0.2880
predicted_H	0.9510
predicted_HBP	0.0970
predicted_HR	0.1840
predicted_OBP	0.3213
predicted_R	0.4540
predicted_RBI	0.9070
predicted_SLG	0.4253
predicted_SO	0.4000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0860	0.0740	0.0812	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6290	3.7140	3.6630	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2560	0.2560	0.2560	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3140	0.2880	0.3036	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9510	0.9384	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0970	0.0970	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1840	0.1816	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3213	0.3211	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.4540	0.5242	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8900	0.9070	0.8968	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4250	0.4253	0.4251	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3140	0.4000	0.3484	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	689414
playerID	689414
playerName	Liam Hicks
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Otto Lopez (672640) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.3350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	0.767	1.000
predicted_3B	0.047	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_AB	4.023	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.023	4.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.335	0.250	-0.085	0.000
predicted_BB	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_H	1.170	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.349	1.000	-0.349	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.250	-0.116	0.000
predicted_R	0.605	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.605	0.000	-0.605	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.442	0.000	-0.442	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.486	0.250	0.014	0.250
predicted_SO	0.744	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.744	0.000	0.256	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.047	-
predicted_AB	4.023	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.163	-
predicted_H	1.170	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.605	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.417	-
predicted_SO	0.744	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.038	-0.009
predicted_AB	4.000	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000
predicted_BB	0.169	0.006
predicted_H	1.175	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.000
predicted_R	0.533	-0.072
predicted_RBI	0.469	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	0.717	-0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.167	-0.002
predicted_H	1.128	-0.047
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.021
predicted_R	0.497	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.437	-0.032
predicted_SLG	0.412	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.726	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.023

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	13.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3171	0.3333	0.4390	0.3171	0.0244	0.0976	0.0244	0.0976
season	0.60	43	-	173.000	58.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	19.000	26.000	7.000	32.000	0.3353	0.3661	0.4855	0.3353	0.0231	0.1098	0.0405	0.1850

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.9660
predicted_AVG	0.2979
predicted_BB	0.1770
predicted_H	1.1810
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.3319
predicted_R	0.4300
predicted_RBI	0.4680
predicted_SLG	0.4174
predicted_SO	0.6780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.1780	0.2105	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0470	0.0260	0.0384	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0230	3.9660	3.9997	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2979	0.2980	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1630	0.1770	0.1687	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1700	1.1810	1.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0820	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3319	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6050	0.4300	0.5335	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4680	0.4692	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4170	0.4174	0.4172	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7440	0.6780	0.7170	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.335

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	672640
playerID	672640
playerName	Otto Lopez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Joe Mack (691788) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

System season_avg: 0.1720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1724

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1720

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.222	3.000	-0.222
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.172	0.000	-0.172
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	-0.111
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.556	0.000	-0.556
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	-0.222
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	0.000	-0.222
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.241	0.000	-0.241
predicted_SO	1.222	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.222	2.000	0.778

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	1.222	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.010
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.324	0.102
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.143	0.032
predicted_H	0.609	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.000
predicted_R	0.277	0.055
predicted_RBI	0.276	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.205	-0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.324	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.142	-0.002
predicted_H	0.585	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.043	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.210	-0.049
predicted_R	0.258	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.257	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.286	-0.047
predicted_SO	1.220	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.2941	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588	0.4706
last_10	0.20	9	-	29.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	11.000	0.1724	0.2000	0.2414	0.1724	0.0690	0.0345	0.3793
season	0.60	9	-	29.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	11.000	0.1724	0.2000	0.2414	0.1724	0.0690	0.0345	0.3793

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2550
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5590
predicted_AVG	0.2093
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_H	0.7450
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.2587
predicted_R	0.4020
predicted_RBI	0.3340
predicted_SLG	0.3325
predicted_SO	1.1660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2550	0.2320	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	3.5590	3.3244	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2093	0.2091	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.2180	0.1435	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.7450	0.6092	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0570	0.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2587	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.4020	0.2767	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3340	0.2755	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3325	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2220	1.1660	1.2050	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.172

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	691788
playerID	691788
playerName	Joe Mack
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIA
teamID	15

Jakob Marsee (805300) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.810	4.000	-0.810	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.750	-0.188	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	3.000	-0.714	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	1.000	-0.071	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.750	-0.307	-0.750
predicted_R	0.548	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.548	1.000	-0.548	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	1.000	-0.310	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.294	1.500	-0.294	-1.500
predicted_SO	1.119	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.119	0.000	-1.119	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.548	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	1.119	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.039	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.765	-0.045
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.523	-0.048
predicted_H	0.765	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.125	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.523	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.338	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	1.057	-0.062

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.000
predicted_3B	0.039	0.000
predicted_AB	3.765	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.516	-0.007
predicted_H	0.735	-0.030
predicted_HBP	0.125	0.000
predicted_HR	0.112	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.037
predicted_R	0.487	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.314	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.330	-0.034
predicted_SO	1.070	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.4706	0.2941	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.2500	0.3415	0.4444	0.2500	0.0556	0.1667	0.0833	0.2778
season	0.60	42	-	160.000	30.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	13.000	23.000	24.000	47.000	0.1875	0.3069	0.2938	0.1875	0.0187	0.0813	0.1500	0.2938

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0900
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.7010
predicted_AVG	0.2244
predicted_BB	0.4540
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HBP	0.1250
predicted_HR	0.1250
predicted_OBP	0.3287
predicted_R	0.4870
predicted_RBI	0.3630
predicted_SLG	0.3641
predicted_SO	0.9670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.0900	0.0930	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0260	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.7010	3.7653	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2244	0.2242	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.4540	0.5230	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8310	0.7655	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1250	0.1250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1250	0.1161	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3287	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5480	0.4870	0.5230	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3630	0.3376	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3641	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1190	0.9670	1.0567	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	805300
playerID	805300
playerName	Jakob Marsee
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Javier Sanoja (691594) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 23

All-history rows before 20260516: 23

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.478	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.478	3.000	-0.478	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.870	0.000	-0.870	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.000	-0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.270	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SO	0.478	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.478	0.000	0.522	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.478	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.261	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.130	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.270	-
predicted_SO	0.478	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.511	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.262	0.001
predicted_H	0.642	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.000
predicted_R	0.171	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.226	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.499	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.511	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.259	-0.003
predicted_H	0.616	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.023	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.232	-0.029
predicted_R	0.159	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.211	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.241	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.505	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.0556	0.1053	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.1471	0.2162	0.1765	0.1471	0.0000	0.0882	0.1471
season	0.60	23	-	80.000	20.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	0.2500	0.3023	0.3000	0.2500	0.0875	0.0750	0.1375

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5670
predicted_AVG	0.2043
predicted_BB	0.2640
predicted_H	0.7290
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2611
predicted_R	0.2400
predicted_RBI	0.2530
predicted_SLG	0.2698
predicted_SO	0.5330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1380	0.1605	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4780	3.5670	3.5113	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2043	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2610	0.2640	0.2621	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7290	0.6420	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0300	0.0237	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2611	0.2610	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1300	0.2400	0.1712	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2530	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2700	0.2698	0.2699	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4780	0.5330	0.4986	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	691594
playerID	691594
playerName	Javier Sanoja
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Owen Caissie (683357) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 31

All-history rows before 20260516: 31

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2062

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.129	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.129	2.000	-0.129	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.500	0.127	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.645	1.000	0.355	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.500	0.070	-0.167
predicted_R	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.330	0.500	0.003	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.419	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.419	1.000	0.581	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.129	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.226	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.355	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	1.419	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.108	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.266	0.040
predicted_H	0.597	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.094	-
predicted_HR	0.098	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.000
predicted_R	0.383	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.541	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	1.346	-0.073

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.108	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.263	-0.003
predicted_H	0.573	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.094	0.000
predicted_HR	0.094	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.248	-0.046
predicted_R	0.356	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.504	-0.037
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.032
predicted_SO	1.363	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2500	0.4118	0.5000	0.2500	0.0833	0.3333	0.2500	0.4167
last_10	0.20	10	-	26.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	0.1538	0.2500	0.2692	0.1538	0.0385	0.1923	0.1154	0.4615
season	0.60	31	-	97.000	20.000	6.000	2.000	17.000	11.000	7.000	44.000	0.2062	0.2636	0.3299	0.2062	0.0206	0.1753	0.0722	0.4536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1210
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.0750
predicted_AVG	0.2129
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_H	0.6550
predicted_HBP	0.0940
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.2937
predicted_R	0.4260
predicted_RBI	0.5900
predicted_SLG	0.3609
predicted_SO	1.2300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1210	0.1657	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1290	3.0750	3.1081	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2129	0.2130	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2260	0.3300	0.2663	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6550	0.5968	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0940	0.0940	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1100	0.0977	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2937	0.2939	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3550	0.4260	0.3825	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5900	0.5410	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3609	0.3610	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4190	1.2300	1.3458	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	683357
playerID	683357
playerName	Owen Caissie
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Sandy Alcantara (645261) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.222	2.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	2.778	2.000	1.222	2.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.889	5.000	-0.889	0.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.356	6.000	-0.356	0.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	4.333	3.000	1.667	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	16.000	33.000	14.000	17.000	1.000	5.2683	1.7195	0.5854	1.2073	0.5122	0.6220	0.0366
last_10	0.35	9	57.200	25.000	53.000	20.000	39.000	4.000	3.9017	1.2659	0.4335	0.9191	0.3468	0.6763	0.0694
season	0.20	9	57.200	25.000	53.000	20.000	39.000	4.000	3.9017	1.2659	0.4335	0.9191	0.3468	0.6763	0.0694

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.4690
predicted_ER	2.9410
predicted_ERA	4.5493
predicted_H	6.0520
predicted_HR	0.4530
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.3910
predicted_WHIP	1.4647

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.4690	2.7350	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.9410	3.4714	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5493	4.5493	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	6.0520	5.5251	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4530	0.7270	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	5.2000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	4.3910	5.1969	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4647	1.4647	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	5
R	4
ER	4
BB	3
SO	6
HR	1
BF	26
Pitches	103

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.90
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	645261
playerID	645261
playerName	Sandy Alcantara
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 13

All-history rows before 20260516: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.385	0.000	-1.385	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.815	1.100	-0.715	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.923	1.000	0.077	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	0.000	7.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.8750	0.1250	0.8750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	19.100	3.000	16.000	10.000	19.000	1.000	1.3966	1.3448	0.1552	0.8276	0.5172	0.9828	0.0517
season	0.20	13	25.000	3.000	18.000	13.000	25.000	1.000	1.0800	1.2400	0.1200	0.7200	0.5200	1.0000	0.0400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5740
predicted_ER	0.4340
predicted_ERA	2.4570
predicted_H	1.4050
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.5070
predicted_WHIP	1.2442

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5740	0.8134	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4340	0.1901	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4570	2.4570	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4050	0.6156	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1240	0.0543	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.5070	1.7840	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2442	1.2442	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	2.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.878	1.200	-0.678	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	1.000	-0.944	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.6000	0.1500	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.6562	0.4688	0.5625
season	0.20	18	17.200	6.000	12.000	13.000	17.000	3.0566	1.4151	0.3396	0.6793	0.7359	0.9623

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3290
predicted_ER	0.2850
predicted_ERA	2.9622
predicted_H	0.7050
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7220
predicted_WHIP	1.1934

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3290	0.7304	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2850	0.1145	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9622	2.9622	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7050	0.2833	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0660	0.0265	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7220	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1934	1.1934	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.06
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Pete Fairbanks (664126) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 10

All-history rows before 20260516: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	3.000	0.600	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	3.000	0.000	-2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.900	1.000	1.100	1.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.830	0.100	-0.830	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.300	0.000	-1.300	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	9.0000	1.2500	1.0000	0.5000	0.7500	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	10.000	9.000	4.000	13.000	1.000	10.0000	1.4444	1.1111	1.0000	0.4444	1.4444	0.1111
season	0.20	10	9.000	10.000	9.000	4.000	13.000	1.000	10.0000	1.4444	1.1111	1.0000	0.4444	1.4444	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2030
predicted_ER	0.2850
predicted_ERA	5.5791
predicted_H	0.4050
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.5020
predicted_WHIP	1.3234

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2030	0.7300	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2850	0.7577	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.5791	5.5791	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.4050	1.4596	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0500	0.0169	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5020	0.1701	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3234	1.3234	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	10.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260427_MIA@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	664126
playerID	664126
playerName	Pete Fairbanks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Home Team: TB

Jake Fraley (641584) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 24

All-history rows before 20260516: 24

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2368

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	3.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.000	0.013	0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.000	-0.060	0.250
predicted_R	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.208	0.000	0.792	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.408	0.000	-0.158	0.250
predicted_SO	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.292	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.244	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.320	-0.013
predicted_H	0.687	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.277	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.203	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.922	0.047

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.244	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.323	0.003
predicted_H	0.699	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.006
predicted_R	0.286	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.915	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	0.2188	0.2857	0.3125	0.2188	0.0000	0.0312	0.0938	0.3750
season	0.60	24	-	76.000	18.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	8.000	21.000	0.2368	0.3095	0.4079	0.2368	0.0263	0.0658	0.1053	0.2763

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2550
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3720
predicted_AVG	0.2271
predicted_BB	0.2990
predicted_H	0.7660
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.2920
predicted_R	0.3220
predicted_RBI	0.2240
predicted_SLG	0.3648
predicted_SO	1.0020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2920	0.2550	0.2782	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.3720	3.2435	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2271	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2990	0.3203	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7660	0.6870	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0680	0.0630	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2920	0.2920	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3220	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2240	0.2027	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3648	0.3649	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	1.0020	0.9224	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641584
playerID	641584
playerName	Jake Fraley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Hunter Feduccia (676439) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 17

All-history rows before 20260516: 17

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2683

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	1.000	-0.118	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.412	2.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.500	-0.268	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.366	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	0.000	1.647	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.647	1.000	-0.647	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.333	0.133	0.167
predicted_R	0.427	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.317	1.000	-0.317	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.915	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.882	0.000	0.118	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.366	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.427	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	0.915	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.656	0.156
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.350	-0.016
predicted_H	0.631	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.000
predicted_R	0.450	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.254	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000
predicted_SO	0.902	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.656	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.353	0.003
predicted_H	0.642	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.051	0.000
predicted_HR	0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	-0.010
predicted_R	0.465	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.263	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.327	-0.044
predicted_SO	0.894	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3077	0.3333	0.4615	0.3077	0.0769	0.0769	0.3077
last_10	0.20	10	-	24.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.2917	0.3793	0.3750	0.2917	0.1250	0.1250	0.2917
season	0.60	17	-	41.000	11.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	15.000	0.2683	0.3673	0.3171	0.2683	0.0976	0.1463	0.3659

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1940
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	2.9600
predicted_AVG	0.2668
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.3410
predicted_R	0.4950
predicted_RBI	0.3210
predicted_SLG	0.3715
predicted_SO	0.8760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.1940	0.1464	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.9600	2.6559	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2668	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3660	0.3190	0.3501	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.7900	0.6313	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0360	0.0254	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3410	0.3410	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4270	0.4950	0.4500	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.3210	0.2542	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3715	0.3712	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9150	0.8760	0.9018	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676439
playerID	676439
playerName	Hunter Feduccia
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.905	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.905	4.000	0.095	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	0.000	0.024	1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	-0.083	0.250
predicted_R	0.619	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.619	0.000	-0.619	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.470	0.000	-0.220	0.250
predicted_SO	0.738	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.738	1.000	1.262	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.905	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.619	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.420	-
predicted_SO	0.738	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.941	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.461	-0.039
predicted_H	0.930	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.221	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.610	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.385	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000
predicted_SO	0.740	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.941	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.003
predicted_BB	0.465	0.004
predicted_H	0.946	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.223	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.014
predicted_R	0.630	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.398	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.008
predicted_SO	0.734	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.905

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2273	0.2609	0.3636	0.2273	0.0454	0.0454	0.0454	0.1818
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.0750	0.1000	0.1500
season	0.60	42	-	164.000	41.000	3.000	11.000	19.000	26.000	21.000	31.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.4695	0.2500	0.0671	0.1158	0.1280	0.1890

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9920
predicted_AVG	0.2366
predicted_BB	0.4050
predicted_H	0.9450
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2220
predicted_OBP	0.3065
predicted_R	0.5960
predicted_RBI	0.3910
predicted_SLG	0.4202
predicted_SO	0.7430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.0640	0.0681	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9050	3.9920	3.9406	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2366	0.2368	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4050	0.4611	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9450	0.9302	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2220	0.2208	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3065	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6190	0.5960	0.6096	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3910	0.3845	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4200	0.4202	0.4201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7380	0.7430	0.7400	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Richie Palacios (680700) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 21

All-history rows before 20260516: 21

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2414

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	1.000	-0.095	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.762	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.762	3.000	0.238	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.667	0.092	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.476	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.476	0.000	0.524	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.667	0.134	-0.167
predicted_R	0.381	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.381	1.000	0.619	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.328	1.000	0.006	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.810	1.000	-0.810	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.762	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.476	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.381	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.348	-
predicted_SO	0.810	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.929	0.167
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.459	-0.017
predicted_H	0.680	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.055	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.000
predicted_R	0.376	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.398	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	0.868	0.058

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.929	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.463	0.004
predicted_H	0.692	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.055	0.000
predicted_HR	0.046	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.008
predicted_R	0.388	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.027
predicted_SO	0.861	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.3529	0.4211	0.4118	0.3529	0.0000	0.2353	0.1177	0.4118
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	12.000	0.2188	0.3158	0.2500	0.2188	0.0000	0.1562	0.1562	0.3750
season	0.60	21	-	58.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	8.000	10.000	17.000	0.2414	0.3662	0.3276	0.2414	0.0172	0.1379	0.1724	0.2931

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1330
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2210
predicted_AVG	0.2546
predicted_BB	0.4300
predicted_H	0.8200
predicted_HBP	0.0550
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3487
predicted_R	0.3660
predicted_RBI	0.4830
predicted_SLG	0.3484
predicted_SO	0.9700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.1330	0.1088	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7620	3.2210	2.9287	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2546	0.2549	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4760	0.4300	0.4593	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.8200	0.6799	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0550	0.0550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0540	0.0451	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3487	0.3489	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3810	0.3660	0.3756	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4830	0.3983	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3480	0.3484	0.3481	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8100	0.9700	0.8681	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	680700
playerID	680700
playerName	Richie Palacios
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TB
teamID	27

Chandler Simpson (802415) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 39

All-history rows before 20260516: 39

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2975

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	1.000	-0.077	-1.000
predicted_AB	4.190	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.051	4.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.500	0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.205	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.205	0.000	0.795	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.128	1.000	-0.128	-1.000
predicted_H	1.190	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.205	2.000	0.795	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.500	0.273	0.100
predicted_R	0.513	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.513	0.000	0.487	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.205	0.000	0.795	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.355	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.342	1.000	0.158	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.436	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	4.190	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.205	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.513	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.355	-
predicted_SO	0.436	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	0.007
predicted_3B	0.083	0.006
predicted_AB	4.118	-0.072
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.203	-0.002
predicted_H	1.171	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.571	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.254	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.355	0.000
predicted_SO	0.472	0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	0.000
predicted_3B	0.083	0.000
predicted_AB	4.118	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.004
predicted_BB	0.204	0.002
predicted_H	1.191	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.005
predicted_R	0.591	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.263	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.003
predicted_SO	0.468	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.190

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	11.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	6.000	0.2683	0.2857	0.3171	0.2683	0.0488	0.0244	0.1463
season	0.60	39	-	158.000	47.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	20.000	8.000	17.000	0.2975	0.3274	0.3418	0.2975	0.0506	0.0506	0.1076

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0420
predicted_3B	0.0920
predicted_AB	4.0120
predicted_AVG	0.2848
predicted_BB	0.1990
predicted_H	1.1430
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.3180
predicted_R	0.6570
predicted_RBI	0.2460
predicted_SLG	0.3554
predicted_SO	0.5240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0260	0.0420	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.0920	0.0831	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1900	4.0120	4.1178	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2848	0.2849	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2050	0.1990	0.2026	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.1430	1.1709	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0196	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3180	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5130	0.6570	0.5714	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2460	0.2543	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3550	0.3554	0.3552	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4360	0.5240	0.4717	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	802415
playerID	802415
playerName	Chandler Simpson
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Cedric Mullins (656775) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 34

All-history rows before 20260516: 34

System season_avg: 0.1650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1654

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.735	4.000	0.265	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.165	1.000	-0.165	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.618	4.000	-0.618	-4.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	1.000	-0.088	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.219	1.000	-0.219	-1.000
predicted_R	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.353	3.000	-0.353	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.268	1.750	-0.268	-1.750
predicted_SO	0.735	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.735	0.000	1.265	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.735	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.353	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	0.735	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.060	0.001
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.741	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	-0.009
predicted_H	0.758	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.098	-
predicted_HR	0.100	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.000
predicted_R	0.395	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	-0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.060	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.741	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.169	0.001
predicted_H	0.771	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.098	0.000
predicted_HR	0.101	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.240	-0.034
predicted_R	0.408	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.316	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.694	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.364)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.5263	0.3684	0.0526	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.2432	0.2821	0.3243	0.2432	0.0270	0.1622	0.0270	0.1081
season	0.60	34	-	127.000	21.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	12.000	6.000	25.000	0.1654	0.2190	0.2677	0.1653	0.0236	0.1102	0.0472	0.1968

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0610
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.7510
predicted_AVG	0.2256
predicted_BB	0.1540
predicted_H	0.8460
predicted_HBP	0.0980
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_OBP	0.2745
predicted_R	0.4580
predicted_RBI	0.5170
predicted_SLG	0.3422
predicted_SO	0.6460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.0610	0.0598	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0170	0.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7350	3.7510	3.7414	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2256	0.2258	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.1540	0.1673	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8460	0.7580	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0980	0.0980	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1140	0.0995	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2745	0.2748	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3530	0.4580	0.3947	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5170	0.4646	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3422	0.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7350	0.6460	0.6996	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.165

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	656775
playerID	656775
playerName	Cedric Mullins
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Yandy Díaz (650490) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2975

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.854	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.854	3.000	-0.854	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.333	-0.297	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.366	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.366	1.000	-0.366	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.146	1.000	-1.146	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	1.000	-0.146	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.378	0.500	-0.378	-0.500
predicted_R	0.512	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.512	1.000	0.488	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.634	2.000	0.366	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.449	1.333	-0.449	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.537	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.537	0.000	0.463	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.854	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.366	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	0.537	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.906	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	-0.014
predicted_H	0.961	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.099	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.470	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.558	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000
predicted_SO	0.552	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.906	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.355	0.003
predicted_H	0.977	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.099	0.000
predicted_HR	0.137	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.010
predicted_R	0.486	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.577	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.391	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.548	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.231)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.854

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.3182	0.1818	0.0454	0.1364	0.0909	0.0909
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.1951	0.2444	0.2927	0.1951	0.0244	0.1220	0.0488	0.1463
season	0.60	41	-	158.000	47.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	26.000	21.000	15.000	22.000	0.2975	0.3778	0.4494	0.2975	0.0380	0.1646	0.0949	0.1392

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.9820
predicted_AVG	0.2524
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	1.0050
predicted_HBP	0.0990
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3226
predicted_R	0.4100
predicted_RBI	0.5840
predicted_SLG	0.3922
predicted_SO	0.5750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0980	0.0950	0.0968	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0150	0.0203	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8540	3.9820	3.9062	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2524	0.2522	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3660	0.3320	0.3521	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0050	0.9606	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0990	0.0990	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1440	0.1357	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3226	0.3228	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.4100	0.4704	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5840	0.5580	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3922	0.3921	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5370	0.5750	0.5525	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	650490
playerID	650490
playerName	Yandy Díaz
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonathan Aranda (666018) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 40

All-history rows before 20260516: 40

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2808

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.650	2.000	-1.650	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.000	0.219	0.500
predicted_BB	0.625	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.625	2.000	1.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.025	0.000	-0.025	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.428	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.500	0.365	0.250
predicted_R	0.575	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.575	1.000	0.425	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.825	0.000	1.175	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.501	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.479	0.000	1.521	2.000
predicted_SO	1.050	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.050	1.000	-1.050	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.650	-
predicted_AVG	0.323	-
predicted_BB	0.625	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.428	-
predicted_R	0.575	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.501	-
predicted_SO	1.050	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.596	-0.054
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.000
predicted_BB	0.668	0.043
predicted_H	1.145	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.117	-
predicted_HR	0.177	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.428	-0.000
predicted_R	0.616	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.745	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.501	0.000
predicted_SO	1.036	-0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.596	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.001
predicted_BB	0.673	0.006
predicted_H	1.165	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.117	0.000
predicted_HR	0.179	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.003
predicted_R	0.637	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.770	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.506	0.005
predicted_SO	1.027	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.319 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	0.4000	0.5417	0.6000	0.4000	0.0667	0.2667	0.4000	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	15.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	8.000	8.000	0.4412	0.5435	0.5588	0.4412	0.0294	0.1765	0.2353	0.2353
season	0.60	40	-	146.000	41.000	5.000	8.000	33.000	23.000	25.000	42.000	0.2808	0.3855	0.4795	0.2808	0.0548	0.2260	0.1712	0.2877

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1030
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5170
predicted_AVG	0.3234
predicted_BB	0.7300
predicted_H	1.1370
predicted_HBP	0.1170
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_OBP	0.4278
predicted_R	0.6750
predicted_RBI	0.7380
predicted_SLG	0.5015
predicted_SO	1.0160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1030	0.1160	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6500	3.5170	3.5957	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3230	0.3234	0.3232	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6250	0.7300	0.6678	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.1370	1.1447	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1170	0.1170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1730	0.1771	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4280	0.4278	0.4279	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5750	0.6750	0.6158	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.7380	0.7451	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5010	0.5015	0.5012	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0500	1.0160	1.0361	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	666018
playerID	666018
playerName	Jonathan Aranda
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Taylor Walls (670764) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 31

All-history rows before 20260516: 31

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	1.000	0.871	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.065	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.065	3.000	0.935	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.333	0.039	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.645	1.000	0.355	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.333	-0.062	-0.083
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.355	3.000	-0.355	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.274	0.667	0.226	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.871	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.871	1.000	0.129	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.065	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.419	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	0.871	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.007
predicted_3B	0.045	0.013
predicted_AB	3.137	0.072
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.408	-0.011
predicted_H	0.634	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.410	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.466	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	0.838	-0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.137	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.412	0.003
predicted_H	0.645	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.021	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.016
predicted_R	0.424	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.481	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.298	-0.035
predicted_SO	0.831	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.4375	0.2500	0.3125	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	0.2258	0.3143	0.3226	0.2258	0.2258	0.1290	0.1935
season	0.60	31	-	95.000	20.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	13.000	13.000	27.000	0.2105	0.3119	0.2737	0.2105	0.1158	0.1368	0.2842

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0670
predicted_AB	3.2500
predicted_AVG	0.2263
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0220
predicted_OBP	0.3142
predicted_R	0.3970
predicted_RBI	0.5380
predicted_SLG	0.3331
predicted_SO	0.7860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.1460	0.1356	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0670	0.0455	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0650	3.2500	3.1366	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2263	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4190	0.3910	0.4082	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7350	0.6338	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0220	0.0208	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3142	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.3970	0.4105	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5380	0.4657	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3331	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8710	0.7860	0.8381	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	670764
playerID	670764
playerName	Taylor Walls
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Nick Martinez (607259) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 8

All-history rows before 20260516: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.250	0.000	-0.250	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	5.000	7.000	-2.000	-4.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.812	5.200	0.188	0.800
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	3.875	3.000	2.125	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.000	5.000	28.000	6.000	20.000	0.000	1.4516	1.0968	0.1613	0.9032	0.1935	0.6452	0.0000
last_10	0.35	8	47.200	9.000	40.000	10.000	31.000	3.000	1.6993	1.0490	0.1888	0.8392	0.2098	0.6503	0.0629
season	0.20	8	47.200	9.000	40.000	10.000	31.000	3.000	1.6993	1.0490	0.1888	0.8392	0.2098	0.6503	0.0629

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6500
predicted_ER	1.7440
predicted_ERA	2.5566
predicted_H	5.5520
predicted_HR	0.3810
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	4.7020
predicted_WHIP	1.1730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.6500	1.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.7440	1.3627	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5566	2.5566	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.5520	4.2441	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3810	0.1857	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	4.7020	5.3672	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1730	1.1730	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	6
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	10
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	2
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	80
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	607259
playerID	607259
playerName	Nick Martinez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.421	4.000	-0.421	-4.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.863	0.200	0.137	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.053	1.000	-1.053	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	2.2500	1.5000	0.2500	0.2500	1.2500	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	0.000	1.0000	0.8889	0.1111	0.3333	0.5556	1.2222	0.0000
season	0.20	19	17.100	5.000	10.000	8.000	20.000	1.000	2.5962	1.0385	0.2885	0.5769	0.4615	1.1539	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5370
predicted_ER	0.3390
predicted_ERA	3.2533
predicted_H	0.6540
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9990
predicted_WHIP	1.2681

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5370	0.2147	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3390	0.1356	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2533	3.2533	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6540	0.2615	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0760	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9990	0.3995	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2681	1.2681	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Cole Sulser (642121) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.167	0.000	-1.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.144	1.100	-0.144	-0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	0.889	0.000	2.111	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4545	0.0000	0.2727	0.1818	0.7273	0.0000
season	0.20	17	22.000	6.000	19.000	8.000	16.000	1.000	2.4545	1.2273	0.2727	0.8636	0.3636	0.7273	0.0454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_ER	0.2830
predicted_ERA	2.4686
predicted_H	0.6450
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8400
predicted_WHIP	0.8924

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2750	0.1168	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2830	0.1202	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4686	2.4686	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6450	0.2739	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0760	0.0323	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.8400	2.0828	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8924	0.8924	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.27
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	642121
playerID	642121
playerName	Cole Sulser
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Garrett Cleavinger (664076) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.700	0.100	0.300	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.111	1.000	-1.111	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	2.4545	1.0909	0.2727	0.8182	0.2727	1.6364
last_10	0.35	9	7.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	3.8571	1.7143	0.4286	1.0000	0.7143	1.4286
season	0.20	9	7.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	3.8571	1.7143	0.4286	1.0000	0.7143	1.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3650
predicted_ER	0.4060
predicted_ERA	3.9360
predicted_H	0.8600
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0080
predicted_WHIP	1.3216

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3650	0.1166	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4060	0.1297	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9360	3.9360	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8600	0.2748	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0080	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3216	1.3216	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	664076
playerID	664076
playerName	Garrett Cleavinger
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

20260516_MIL@MIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.620097, "home_win_probability": 0.379903, "away_win_probability": 0.620097, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 MIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 MIN", "confidence": 0.620097, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 MIN", "winner": "MIL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 MIN", "winner": "MIL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	MIL 5 - 3 MIN	MIL	0.620	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	MIL 5 - 3 MIN	MIL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away MIL	7-3	0.700	4.20	2.70	15	2W	average	strong
Home MIN	5-5	0.500	4.80	4.90	-1	1L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away MIL	25-17	0.595	61	1.452	True
Home MIN	20-25	0.444	-6	-0.133	True
Signal	-	-	-1.586	-1.812	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-15	MIL @ MIN	3 - 2	MIL	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target MIL	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target MIN	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized MIL	34	9	5	0	5	3	9
Player finalized MIN	33	9	3	0	3	3	9
Player model fractional MIL	32.94	7.84	5.03	0.66	4.39	4.02	6.92
Player model fractional MIN	32.19	7.32	4.27	0.74	3.88	3.45	8.38
Simulation box MIL	36	9	5	2	5	5	9
Simulation box MIN	34	7	3	2	3	1	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away MIL	Starter	Logan Henderson	4.10	2	3	4	0	4.18	1.17	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Aaron Ashby	2	0	0	1	1	2.68	1.23	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Abner Uribe	1.10	1	2	1	0	4.90	1.33	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Trevor Megill	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.70	1.18	True
Home MIN	Starter	Connor Prielipp	5	2	7	4	2	3.81	1.18	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Eric Orze	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.97	1.38	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Taylor Rogers	1.10	0	1	0	1	3.17	1.33	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Justin Topa	1.10	3	0	4	2	7.58	1.74	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: MIL

Andrew Vaughn (683734) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 8

All-history rows before 20260516: 8

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.250	-0.286	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.394	0.250	-0.194	-0.050
predicted_R	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.464	0.250	-0.464	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	0.008
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.514	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.275	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.388	0.013
predicted_H	0.936	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.000
predicted_R	0.627	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.487	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	0.561	0.061

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.514	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.001
predicted_BB	0.394	0.005
predicted_H	0.970	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.136	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.021
predicted_R	0.665	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.517	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.415	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.553	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.3125	0.4500	0.4375	0.3125	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875	0.1875
last_10	0.20	8	-	28.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3939	0.4643	0.2857	0.0357	0.2143	0.1071	0.1429
season	0.60	8	-	28.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3939	0.4643	0.2857	0.0357	0.2143	0.1071	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2740
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5440
predicted_AVG	0.2746
predicted_BB	0.4180
predicted_H	0.9730
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.3700
predicted_R	0.6320
predicted_RBI	0.5040
predicted_SLG	0.4222
predicted_SO	0.6960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2740	0.2575	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5440	3.5137	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2746	0.2749	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.4180	0.3884	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9730	0.9365	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0790	0.0728	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3700	0.3700	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.6320	0.6272	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5040	0.4875	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4222	0.4221	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6960	0.5609	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	683734
playerID	683734
playerName	Andrew Vaughn
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

Gary Sánchez (596142) · BATTER · C · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 23

All-history rows before 20260516: 23

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2078

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	1.000	-0.130	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.348	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.348	4.000	0.652	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.250	-0.208	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.783	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.783	1.000	0.217	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.696	1.000	-0.696	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.200	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.400	-0.165	-0.200
predicted_R	0.609	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.609	2.000	-0.609	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.522	1.000	-0.522	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.500	-0.429	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.913	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.913	0.000	2.087	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.348	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.783	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.609	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.366	-
predicted_SO	0.913	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.012
predicted_3B	0.042	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.441	0.093
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.716	-0.067
predicted_H	0.640	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.099	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000
predicted_R	0.626	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.388	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.000
predicted_SO	0.924	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.441	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.725	0.010
predicted_H	0.662	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.010
predicted_R	0.664	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.347	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.912	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	9.000	0.1842	0.2791	0.2895	0.1842	0.0000	0.1053	0.1316	0.2368
season	0.60	23	-	77.000	16.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	14.000	18.000	21.000	0.2078	0.3646	0.4286	0.2078	0.0520	0.1558	0.2338	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0390
predicted_AB	3.5930
predicted_AVG	0.2052
predicted_BB	0.6060
predicted_H	0.7370
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_OBP	0.3234
predicted_R	0.6540
predicted_RBI	0.4490
predicted_SLG	0.3660
predicted_SO	0.9430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.1620	0.1422	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0390	0.0415	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3480	3.5930	3.4412	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2052	0.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7830	0.6060	0.7157	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7370	0.6397	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1130	0.0987	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3234	0.3232	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6090	0.6540	0.6261	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4490	0.3877	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3660	0.3660	0.3660	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9130	0.9430	0.9244	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	596142
playerID	596142
playerName	Gary Sánchez
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIL
teamID	16

Luis Rengifo (650859) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 30

All-history rows before 20260516: 30

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2232

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.733	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.733	4.000	1.267	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.000	0.377	0.600
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	2.167	3.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.290	0.000	0.310	0.600
predicted_R	0.367	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.367	0.000	0.633	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	0.000	1.533	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.295	0.000	0.305	0.600
predicted_SO	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.733	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.367	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	0.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-0.041
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.740	0.007
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.325	-0.008
predicted_H	0.903	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.000
predicted_R	0.374	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.461	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.000
predicted_SO	0.409	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.740	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.330	0.004
predicted_H	0.935	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.022	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.008
predicted_R	0.397	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.489	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.007
predicted_SO	0.403	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.3684	0.3684	0.1579	0.0526	0.0526
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.2703	0.3415	0.2703	0.2703	0.1351	0.1081	0.0541
season	0.60	30	-	112.000	25.000	8.000	14.000	11.000	10.000	12.000	0.2232	0.2903	0.2946	0.2232	0.1250	0.0893	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7510
predicted_AVG	0.2582
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_H	0.9690
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.3191
predicted_R	0.3850
predicted_RBI	0.4940
predicted_SLG	0.3220
predicted_SO	0.4230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.1640	0.2265	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7330	3.7510	3.7401	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2582	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3130	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9690	0.9028	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0212	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3191	0.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3670	0.3850	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4940	0.4612	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3220	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4000	0.4230	0.4090	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	650859
playerID	650859
playerName	Luis Rengifo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jackson Chourio (694192) · BATTER · LF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.550	4.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.444	5.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.400	-0.300	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.333	2.000	-1.333	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.400	-0.149	-0.200
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.000	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.600	-0.400	-0.600
predicted_SO	1.444	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.444	3.000	-0.444	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.444	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.550	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.341	-
predicted_SO	1.444	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.381	-0.063
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.423	-0.127
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000
predicted_H	1.051	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.364	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.311	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.000
predicted_SO	1.395	-0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.381	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	4.423	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.008
predicted_BB	0.338	0.005
predicted_H	1.088	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.014	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.001
predicted_R	0.386	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.033
predicted_SO	1.377	-0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	5.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 4.550

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.2273	0.1818	0.0000	0.0909	0.4091
last_10	0.20	9	-	40.000	12.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	0.3000	0.3488	0.4000	0.3000	0.0750	0.0750	0.3250
season	0.60	9	-	40.000	12.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	0.3000	0.3488	0.4000	0.3000	0.0750	0.0750	0.3250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2520
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.1640
predicted_AVG	0.2383
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_H	0.9920
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.2985
predicted_R	0.4270
predicted_RBI	0.2940
predicted_SLG	0.3412
predicted_SO	1.2970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4440	0.2520	0.3807	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.5500	4.1640	4.4227	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2383	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	0.9920	1.0510	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0550	0.0584	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2985	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4270	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.2940	0.3114	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3410	0.3412	0.3411	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4440	1.2970	1.3955	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	694192
playerID	694192
playerName	Jackson Chourio
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Sal Frelick (686217) · BATTER · RF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 36

All-history rows before 20260516: 36

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2188

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2190

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.657	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	4.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.250	-0.219	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.250	-0.301	-0.250
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.305	0.250	-0.305	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.543	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.657	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.371	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	0.543	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.058	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.692	0.035
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.331	-0.040
predicted_H	0.775	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.000
predicted_R	0.491	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.297	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.597	0.053

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.058	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.336	0.005
predicted_H	0.802	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.058	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.010
predicted_R	0.521	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.315	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.280	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.588	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2703	0.3077	0.2703	0.2703	0.0000	0.0811	0.0541	0.1622
season	0.60	35	-	128.000	28.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	18.000	13.000	19.000	0.2188	0.2958	0.3047	0.2188	0.0234	0.0781	0.1016	0.1484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0600
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7450
predicted_AVG	0.2368
predicted_BB	0.2710
predicted_H	0.8870
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.2918
predicted_R	0.4570
predicted_RBI	0.3380
predicted_SLG	0.3056
predicted_SO	0.6770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0570	0.0600	0.0582	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6570	3.7450	3.6921	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2368	0.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3710	0.2710	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8870	0.7746	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0640	0.0556	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2918	0.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.4570	0.4913	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3380	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3056	0.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5430	0.6770	0.5965	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	686217
playerID	686217
playerName	Sal Frelick
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIL
teamID	16

William Contreras (661388) · BATTER · DH · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 39

All-history rows before 20260516: 39

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2821

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.250	0.218	0.250
predicted_BB	0.487	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.487	0.000	0.513	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.128	1.000	0.872	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.250	0.238	0.350
predicted_R	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.590	0.000	0.410	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.692	1.000	-0.692	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.250	0.109	0.250
predicted_SO	0.538	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.487	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.590	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.338	-
predicted_SO	0.538	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.912	-0.088
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.520	0.033
predicted_H	0.946	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.034	-
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.549	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.523	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.338	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.584	0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.912	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.006
predicted_BB	0.527	0.007
predicted_H	0.979	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.034	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.006
predicted_R	0.583	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.555	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.009
predicted_SO	0.576	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	0.1875	0.3810	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.0625	0.3125	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.1892	0.2955	0.2162	0.1892	0.0000	0.1081	0.1351	0.1622
season	0.60	39	-	156.000	44.000	8.000	3.000	27.000	23.000	19.000	21.000	0.2821	0.3616	0.3910	0.2821	0.0192	0.1731	0.1218	0.1346

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7830
predicted_AVG	0.2445
predicted_BB	0.5670
predicted_H	0.9250
predicted_HBP	0.0340
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.3454
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.5140
predicted_SLG	0.3375
predicted_SO	0.6510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.1830	0.1960	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.7830	3.9115	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2445	0.2442	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4870	0.5670	0.5196	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	0.9250	0.9457	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0340	0.0340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0550	0.0580	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3454	0.3452	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5900	0.4900	0.5492	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5140	0.5235	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3380	0.3375	0.3378	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5380	0.6510	0.5841	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	661388
playerID	661388
playerName	William Contreras
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brice Turang (668930) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 39

All-history rows before 20260516: 39

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2966

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.718	4.000	0.282	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.250	-0.047	0.000
predicted_BB	0.795	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.795	0.000	0.205	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.103	1.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.397	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.418	0.250	-0.018	0.150
predicted_R	0.872	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.872	1.000	0.128	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.710	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.692	0.000	1.308	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.510	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.503	0.250	0.497	0.750
predicted_SO	0.923	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	1.000	1.077	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.718	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.795	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.397	-
predicted_R	0.872	-
predicted_RBI	0.710	-
predicted_SLG	0.510	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	0.002
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.720	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000
predicted_BB	0.724	-0.071
predicted_H	1.105	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.162	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.397	0.000
predicted_R	0.833	-0.039
predicted_RBI	0.713	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.510	0.000
predicted_SO	0.902	-0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.720	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.009
predicted_BB	0.734	0.010
predicted_H	1.143	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.168	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.421	0.024
predicted_R	0.884	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.756	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.524	0.014
predicted_SO	0.889	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.6111	0.3333	0.0556	0.2778	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	8.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.1842	0.1579	0.2105
season	0.60	39	-	145.000	43.000	10.000	1.000	6.000	27.000	34.000	31.000	36.000	0.2966	0.4181	0.5034	0.2965	0.0414	0.1862	0.2138	0.2483

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2620
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.7230
predicted_AVG	0.2985
predicted_BB	0.6200
predicted_H	1.1110
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.3971
predicted_R	0.7760
predicted_RBI	0.7170
predicted_SLG	0.5099
predicted_SO	0.8710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2620	0.2584	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0150	0.0215	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7180	3.7230	3.7200	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2985	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7950	0.6200	0.7237	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.1110	1.1045	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1650	0.1620	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3970	0.3971	0.3970	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8720	0.7760	0.8329	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7100	0.7170	0.7129	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5100	0.5099	0.5100	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.8710	0.9018	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668930
playerID	668930
playerName	Brice Turang
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Blake Perkins (663368) · BATTER · CF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 13

All-history rows before 20260516: 13

System season_avg: 0.1460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1463

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.154	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.154	2.000	-0.154	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.146	0.500	0.187	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.462	1.000	0.538	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.500	0.245	0.000
predicted_R	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	2.000	0.462	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.288	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.220	0.500	1.114	0.833
predicted_SO	0.923	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	0.000	0.077	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.154	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.274	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.288	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.221	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.186	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.362	-0.023
predicted_H	0.541	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.083	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.000
predicted_R	0.420	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.288	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.902	-0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.221	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.367	0.005
predicted_H	0.560	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.083	0.000
predicted_HR	0.035	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.016
predicted_R	0.445	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.551	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.277	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.889	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.1429	0.2500	0.2143	0.1429	0.3571	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.1613	0.2571	0.2258	0.1613	0.1935	0.0968	0.2903
season	0.60	13	-	41.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.1463	0.2553	0.2195	0.1463	0.1707	0.1220	0.2927

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2070
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3550
predicted_AVG	0.1857
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_H	0.6230
predicted_HBP	0.0830
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2743
predicted_R	0.4880
predicted_RBI	0.5980
predicted_SLG	0.2878
predicted_SO	0.8600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2070	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1540	3.3550	3.2215	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1857	0.1859	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.3160	0.3618	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6230	0.5413	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0830	0.0830	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0340	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2740	0.2743	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.4880	0.4196	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5980	0.5197	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2880	0.2878	0.2879	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.8600	0.9018	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.146

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	663368
playerID	663368
playerName	Blake Perkins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Joey Ortiz (687401) · BATTER · SS · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 27

All-history rows before 20260516: 27

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2069

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2070

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.222	3.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.333	0.293	0.167
predicted_BB	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.268	0.333	0.232	0.167
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.253	0.333	0.247	0.167
predicted_SO	0.741	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.741	1.000	0.259	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.296	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	0.741	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.277	0.055
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.272	-0.024
predicted_H	0.681	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.078	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.455	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.439	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	0.746	0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.277	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.276	0.004
predicted_H	0.705	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.003
predicted_R	0.483	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.036
predicted_SO	0.736	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.2941	0.2941	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.1765	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2258	0.2571	0.3548	0.2258	0.0323	0.2258	0.0645	0.1935
season	0.60	27	-	87.000	18.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	12.000	8.000	20.000	0.2069	0.2680	0.2529	0.2069	0.0115	0.1264	0.0920	0.2299

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3670
predicted_AVG	0.2318
predicted_BB	0.2340
predicted_H	0.7810
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.2791
predicted_R	0.4730
predicted_RBI	0.5010
predicted_SLG	0.3441
predicted_SO	0.7540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0370	0.1020	0.0618	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	3.3670	3.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2318	0.2319	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2960	0.2340	0.2724	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7810	0.6813	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0900	0.0776	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2791	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4730	0.4550	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.5010	0.4385	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3441	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7410	0.7540	0.7460	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	687401
playerID	687401
playerName	Joey Ortiz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

Logan Henderson (701656) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 3

All-history rows before 20260516: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	3.333	4.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.333	5.000	-0.233	-0.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	5.333	5.000	-2.333	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	13.000	6.000	10.000	2.000	16.000	1.000	4.1538	0.9231	0.4615	0.7692	0.1538	1.2308	0.0769
last_10	0.35	3	13.000	6.000	10.000	2.000	16.000	1.000	4.1538	0.9231	0.4615	0.7692	0.1538	1.2308	0.0769
season	0.20	3	13.000	6.000	10.000	2.000	16.000	1.000	4.1538	0.9231	0.4615	0.7692	0.1538	1.2308	0.0769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3430
predicted_ER	2.1100
predicted_ERA	4.1818
predicted_H	3.9740
predicted_HR	0.4980
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.8100
predicted_WHIP	1.1707

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.3430	0.5183	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.1100	2.0425	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1818	4.1818	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.9740	3.9900	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4980	0.8063	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.8100	3.6985	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1707	1.1707	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	3
HR	1
BF	17
Pitches	67

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	74
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	54
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	701656
playerID	701656
playerName	Logan Henderson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Aaron Ashby (676879) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 21

All-history rows before 20260516: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.095	4.000	-0.095	-3.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.248	2.000	0.752	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	2.095	1.000	-2.095	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	10.000	0.000	1.1250	1.0000	0.1250	0.7500	0.2500	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	2.000	10.000	9.000	22.000	0.000	1.2000	1.2667	0.1333	0.6667	0.6000	1.4667	0.0000
season	0.20	21	29.000	7.000	23.000	15.000	44.000	1.000	2.1724	1.3103	0.2414	0.7931	0.5172	1.5172	0.0345

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5720
predicted_ER	0.4210
predicted_ERA	2.6789
predicted_H	1.1680
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6720
predicted_WHIP	1.2315

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5720	0.8058	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4210	0.1910	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6789	2.6789	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1680	1.0762	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0900	0.0408	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.6720	0.7587	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2315	1.2315	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.17
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	676879
playerID	676879
playerName	Aaron Ashby
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Abner Uribe (682842) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.737	1.000	0.263	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.826	1.000	0.274	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.947	1.000	1.053	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	7.2000	1.6000	0.8000	0.8000	0.8000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	5.0000	1.1111	0.5556	0.6667	0.4444	1.0000	0.2222
season	0.20	19	17.100	9.000	14.000	7.000	18.000	2.000	4.6731	1.2115	0.5192	0.8077	0.4038	1.0385	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4690
predicted_ER	0.5450
predicted_ERA	4.9028
predicted_H	0.8640
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9400
predicted_WHIP	1.3323

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4690	0.1875	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5450	0.8181	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9028	4.9028	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8640	0.9456	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1540	0.6617	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9400	1.5761	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3323	1.3323	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.67
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	682842
playerID	682842
playerName	Abner Uribe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Trevor Megill (656730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 17

All-history rows before 20260516: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.824	0.000	0.176	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.941	1.000	0.159	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.176	1.000	-0.176	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.3000
season	0.20	16	16.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	20.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.7500	0.3750	1.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3240
predicted_ER	0.4110
predicted_ERA	3.7034
predicted_H	0.8540
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1030
predicted_WHIP	1.1776

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3240	0.1269	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4110	0.1610	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7034	3.7034	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8540	0.9428	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0790	0.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1030	1.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1776	1.1776	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656730
playerID	656730
playerName	Trevor Megill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Home Team: MIN

Austin Martin (668885) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 29

All-history rows before 20260516: 29

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.207	0.000	-0.207
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.630	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.517	4.000	0.483
predicted_AVG	0.325	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.250	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.690	0.000	-0.690
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.138	0.000	-0.138
predicted_H	1.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.172	1.000	-0.172
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034
predicted_OBP	0.408	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.448	0.250	-0.198
predicted_R	0.448	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.448	0.000	-0.448
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.345	0.000	-0.345
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.422	0.250	-0.172
predicted_SO	0.586	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.586	1.000	0.414

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.630	-
predicted_AVG	0.325	-
predicted_BB	0.690	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.408	-
predicted_R	0.448	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.424	-
predicted_SO	0.586	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.687	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.325	0.000
predicted_BB	0.622	-0.068
predicted_H	1.198	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.408	0.000
predicted_R	0.447	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.437	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.000
predicted_SO	0.604	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.687	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.317	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.619	-0.003
predicted_H	1.169	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.042	0.000
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.415	0.007
predicted_R	0.428	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.418	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.410	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.607	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.317 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.4500	0.3500	0.0000	0.2000	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	16.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.3721	0.4130	0.4419	0.3721	0.0000	0.0930	0.0698	0.1163
season	0.60	29	-	102.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	13.000	20.000	17.000	0.3333	0.4480	0.4216	0.3333	0.0098	0.0980	0.1961	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2450
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7760
predicted_AVG	0.3249
predicted_BB	0.5160
predicted_H	1.2270
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.4084
predicted_R	0.4450
predicted_RBI	0.4480
predicted_SLG	0.4242
predicted_SO	0.6310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.2450	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6300	3.7760	3.6874	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3250	0.3249	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6900	0.5160	0.6215	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.2270	1.1985	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4080	0.4084	0.4082	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4480	0.4450	0.4468	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4480	0.4371	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4240	0.4242	0.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5860	0.6310	0.6037	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668885
playerID	668885
playerName	Austin Martin
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Brooks Lee (686797) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 40

All-history rows before 20260516: 40

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2550

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.725	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.725	4.000	0.275	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.250	-0.255	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.950	1.000	-0.950	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.250	-0.311	-0.250
predicted_R	0.475	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.250	-0.396	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.725	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.275	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.475	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.753	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.285	0.010
predicted_H	0.930	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.473	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.483	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.370	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.670	-0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.753	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.284	-0.001
predicted_H	0.908	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.013
predicted_R	0.452	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.462	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.673	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.3750	0.2750	0.0000	0.1500	0.0750	0.1000
season	0.60	40	-	149.000	38.000	6.000	5.000	22.000	19.000	11.000	28.000	0.2550	0.3106	0.3960	0.2550	0.0336	0.1477	0.0738	0.1879

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7950
predicted_AVG	0.2491
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_H	0.9460
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.3081
predicted_R	0.4690
predicted_RBI	0.4870
predicted_SLG	0.3698
predicted_SO	0.6260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.2030	0.1714	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7250	3.7950	3.7533	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2491	0.2490	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2750	0.3010	0.2855	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9460	0.9305	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0840	0.0816	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3081	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4750	0.4690	0.4726	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4870	0.4828	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3698	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.6260	0.6701	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	686797
playerID	686797
playerName	Brooks Lee
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIN
teamID	17

Ryan Jeffers (680777) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 31

All-history rows before 20260516: 31

System season_avg: 0.2880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2883

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.581	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.581	3.000	0.419	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.288	0.000	-0.038	0.250
predicted_BB	0.645	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.645	1.000	-0.645	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.032	0.000	-0.032	1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.377	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.398	0.250	-0.148	0.000
predicted_R	0.742	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.742	0.000	0.258	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.806	0.000	0.194	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.504	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.523	0.000	-0.023	0.500
predicted_SO	0.742	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.742	0.000	0.258	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.581	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.645	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.377	-
predicted_R	0.742	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.504	-
predicted_SO	0.742	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	0.013
predicted_3B	0.026	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.574	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.650	0.005
predicted_H	0.925	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.377	-0.000
predicted_R	0.705	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.692	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.504	0.000
predicted_SO	0.738	-0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.574	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.647	-0.003
predicted_H	0.902	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.195	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.367	-0.010
predicted_R	0.674	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.663	-0.030
predicted_SLG	0.489	-0.015
predicted_SO	0.741	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	0.1875	0.3810	0.4375	0.1875	0.0625	0.1875	0.3125	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	8.000	7.000	7.000	0.2778	0.3864	0.6389	0.2778	0.0833	0.1944	0.1944	0.1944
season	0.60	31	-	111.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	25.000	23.000	20.000	23.000	0.2883	0.3985	0.5225	0.2883	0.0541	0.2252	0.1802	0.2072

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.5620
predicted_AVG	0.2620
predicted_BB	0.6580
predicted_H	0.9330
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_OBP	0.3765
predicted_R	0.6480
predicted_RBI	0.6960
predicted_SLG	0.5040
predicted_SO	0.7310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2260	0.2067	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0180	0.0265	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5810	3.5620	3.5735	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2620	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6450	0.6580	0.6502	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9330	0.9252	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3770	0.3765	0.3768	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7420	0.6480	0.7048	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.6960	0.6924	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5040	0.5040	0.5040	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7420	0.7310	0.7376	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.288

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680777
playerID	680777
playerName	Ryan Jeffers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Tristan Gray (656484) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.028	0.250
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.247	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.254	0.000	-0.004	0.250
predicted_R	0.389	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.335	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.381	0.000	0.619	1.000
predicted_SO	1.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	3.000	-0.333	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.247	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.335	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.064	0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.553	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.123	0.012
predicted_H	0.681	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.033	-
predicted_HR	0.108	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.247	-0.000
predicted_R	0.391	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.477	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.000
predicted_SO	1.294	-0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.064	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.553	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.123	-0.001
predicted_H	0.665	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.033	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.214	-0.033
predicted_R	0.374	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.457	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.294	-0.041
predicted_SO	1.300	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	15.000	0.2105	0.2308	0.2895	0.2105	0.0263	0.0790	0.0263	0.3947
season	0.60	18	-	63.000	14.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	7.000	2.000	24.000	0.2222	0.2537	0.3810	0.2222	0.0476	0.2222	0.0318	0.3810

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0770
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6470
predicted_AVG	0.2119
predicted_BB	0.1450
predicted_H	0.7730
predicted_HBP	0.0330
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.2468
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.5440
predicted_SLG	0.3352
predicted_SO	1.2240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.0770	0.0636	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6470	3.5529	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2119	0.2120	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.1450	0.1232	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7730	0.6814	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0330	0.0330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1210	0.1076	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2470	0.2468	0.2469	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.3950	0.3912	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5440	0.4774	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3350	0.3352	0.3351	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.2240	1.2938	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656484
playerID	656484
playerName	Tristan Gray
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Clemens (665019) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 28

All-history rows before 20260516: 28

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2371

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.464	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.464	3.000	0.536	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.333	0.013	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.821	1.000	0.179	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.500	-0.095	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.478	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.433	0.333	-0.183	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.036	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.036	1.000	-0.036	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.464	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.393	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.478	-
predicted_SO	1.036	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.490	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.356	-0.037
predicted_H	0.850	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.176	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.527	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.293	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.478	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.006	-0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.490	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.355	-0.002
predicted_H	0.829	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.176	0.000
predicted_HR	0.125	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.047
predicted_R	0.504	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.281	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.425	-0.053
predicted_SO	1.011	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.6842	0.3684	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	8.000	0.2903	0.4054	0.5161	0.2903	0.0323	0.0645	0.0968	0.2581
season	0.60	28	-	97.000	23.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	14.000	11.000	29.000	0.2371	0.3451	0.4330	0.2371	0.0412	0.1031	0.1134	0.2990

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3160
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5300
predicted_AVG	0.2677
predicted_BB	0.2990
predicted_H	0.9450
predicted_HBP	0.1760
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.3549
predicted_R	0.5690
predicted_RBI	0.3300
predicted_SLG	0.4777
predicted_SO	0.9580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.3160	0.2756	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4640	3.5300	3.4896	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2677	0.2679	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3930	0.2990	0.3565	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9450	0.8502	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1760	0.1760	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1400	0.1278	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3549	0.3550	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5690	0.5268	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3300	0.2933	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4780	0.4777	0.4779	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0360	0.9580	1.0057	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	665019
playerID	665019
playerName	Kody Clemens
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

James Outman (681546) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2258

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	3.000	-1.444	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.333	0.274	0.167
predicted_BB	0.111	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	1.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.667	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.333	0.417	0.333
predicted_R	0.556	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	1.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.323	0.333	0.177	0.167
predicted_SO	1.222	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.222	1.000	-1.222	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.424	-
predicted_SO	1.222	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.335	0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.511	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.144	0.033
predicted_H	0.871	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.000
predicted_R	0.587	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.403	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.000
predicted_SO	1.096	-0.126

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.335	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.511	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.039
predicted_BB	0.143	-0.001
predicted_H	0.850	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.044	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.054
predicted_R	0.562	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.385	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.376	-0.048
predicted_SO	1.101	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	0.3889	0.4211	0.5556	0.3889	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.20	9	-	31.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	0.2258	0.2500	0.3226	0.2258	0.0968	0.0323	0.3548
season	0.60	9	-	31.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	0.2258	0.2500	0.3226	0.2258	0.0968	0.0323	0.3548

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3400
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6600
predicted_AVG	0.2813
predicted_BB	0.2170
predicted_H	1.0300
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.3257
predicted_R	0.6560
predicted_RBI	0.4760
predicted_SLG	0.4241
predicted_SO	0.8130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.3400	0.3352	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.6600	3.5106	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2813	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.2170	0.1437	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	1.0300	0.8709	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0570	0.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3257	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.6560	0.5868	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4760	0.4027	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4240	0.4241	0.4240	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2220	0.8130	1.0958	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681546
playerID	681546
playerName	James Outman
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Josh Bell (605137) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2051

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2050

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.805	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.805	4.000	0.195	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.000	0.045	0.250
predicted_BB	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.780	0.000	0.220	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.000	-0.023	0.250
predicted_R	0.512	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.561	0.000	-0.561	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.000	-0.058	0.250
predicted_SO	1.024	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.024	1.000	-1.024	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.805	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.341	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.243	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.299	-
predicted_SO	1.024	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.845	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	-0.048
predicted_H	0.714	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.000
predicted_R	0.443	-0.069
predicted_RBI	0.575	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.299	0.000
predicted_SO	1.117	0.093

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.845	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.291	-0.001
predicted_H	0.697	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.051	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.239	-0.004
predicted_R	0.424	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.551	-0.025
predicted_SLG	0.271	-0.028
predicted_SO	1.122	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.805

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	9.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2500	0.0000	0.4500
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	18.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.1905	0.1429	0.0000	0.1429	0.0000	0.4286
season	0.60	41	-	156.000	32.000	7.000	3.000	23.000	21.000	14.000	42.000	0.2051	0.2733	0.3077	0.2051	0.0192	0.1474	0.0897	0.2692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9040
predicted_AVG	0.1994
predicted_BB	0.2220
predicted_H	0.7790
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.2433
predicted_R	0.3430
predicted_RBI	0.6270
predicted_SLG	0.2993
predicted_SO	1.2520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.2150	0.1889	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8050	3.9040	3.8452	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1994	0.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3410	0.2220	0.2926	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7790	0.7143	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0528	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2430	0.2433	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.3430	0.4433	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.6270	0.5754	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2990	0.2993	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0240	1.2520	1.1167	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	605137
playerID	605137
playerName	Josh Bell
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

Trevor Larnach (663616) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 28

All-history rows before 20260516: 28

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2766

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.357	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.357	2.000	0.643	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.500	-0.277	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.643	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.643	2.000	-0.643	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	1.000	-0.929	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.398	0.750	-0.398	-0.750
predicted_R	0.536	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.536	1.000	-0.536	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.500	-0.394	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.357	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.643	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.536	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.030	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.404	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.587	-0.056
predicted_H	0.846	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.072	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000
predicted_R	0.504	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.318	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000
predicted_SO	0.730	0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.404	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.584	-0.003
predicted_H	0.826	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.072	0.000
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.006
predicted_R	0.482	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.304	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.002
predicted_SO	0.733	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.3429	0.2857	0.0000	0.0857	0.1143	0.2000
season	0.60	28	-	94.000	26.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	15.000	18.000	20.000	0.2766	0.3982	0.3936	0.2766	0.0106	0.1170	0.1915	0.2128

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1710
predicted_3B	0.0200
predicted_AB	3.4790
predicted_AVG	0.2554
predicted_BB	0.4980
predicted_H	0.8880
predicted_HBP	0.0720
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.3595
predicted_R	0.4530
predicted_RBI	0.3310
predicted_SLG	0.3514
predicted_SO	0.7540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.1710	0.1973	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0200	0.0298	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3570	3.4790	3.4044	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2554	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6430	0.4980	0.5866	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8880	0.8464	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0720	0.0720	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3595	0.3592	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5360	0.4530	0.5037	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3310	0.3182	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3514	0.3512	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7540	0.7295	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663616
playerID	663616
playerName	Trevor Larnach
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Royce Lewis (668904) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 29

All-history rows before 20260516: 29

System season_avg: 0.1650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1649

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.345	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.345	4.000	0.655	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.163	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.165	0.250	0.085	0.000
predicted_BB	0.414	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.414	0.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.552	1.000	0.448	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	0.897	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.268	0.250	-0.018	0.000
predicted_R	0.379	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.379	0.000	0.621	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.448	1.000	0.552	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.268	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.289	0.250	0.711	0.750
predicted_SO	1.103	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.103	1.000	0.897	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.345	-
predicted_AVG	0.163	-
predicted_BB	0.414	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.379	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.268	-
predicted_SO	1.103	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.376	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.163	0.000
predicted_BB	0.410	-0.004
predicted_H	0.492	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.055	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.000
predicted_R	0.390	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.372	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.268	0.000
predicted_SO	1.085	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.376	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.142	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.408	-0.002
predicted_H	0.480	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.055	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.235	-0.026
predicted_R	0.373	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.356	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.233	-0.035
predicted_SO	1.090	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.142 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	0.0882	0.1795	0.1176	0.0882	0.0000	0.0882	0.0882	0.3529
season	0.60	29	-	97.000	16.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	11.000	12.000	32.000	0.1649	0.2679	0.2887	0.1650	0.0309	0.1340	0.1237	0.3299

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4260
predicted_AVG	0.1632
predicted_BB	0.4040
predicted_H	0.5590
predicted_HBP	0.0550
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.2611
predicted_R	0.4080
predicted_RBI	0.4220
predicted_SLG	0.2681
predicted_SO	1.0570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1340	0.1150	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3450	3.4260	3.3764	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1630	0.1632	0.1631	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4140	0.4040	0.4101	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5590	0.4923	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0550	0.0550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0730	0.0650	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2611	0.2610	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3790	0.4080	0.3903	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4220	0.3718	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2680	0.2681	0.2680	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1030	1.0570	1.0851	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.165

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668904
playerID	668904
playerName	Royce Lewis
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Connor Prielipp (687570) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 4

All-history rows before 20260516: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.750	2.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.750	1.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.750	5.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	5.250	6.000	1.750	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	19.000	7.000	12.000	7.000	21.000	3.000	3.3158	1.0000	0.3684	0.6316	0.3684	1.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.35	4	19.000	7.000	12.000	7.000	21.000	3.000	3.3158	1.0000	0.3684	0.6316	0.3684	1.1053	0.1579
season	0.20	4	19.000	7.000	12.000	7.000	21.000	3.000	3.3158	1.0000	0.3684	0.6316	0.3684	1.1053	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8210
predicted_ER	2.0520
predicted_ERA	3.8063
predicted_H	3.8920
predicted_HR	0.6890
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.9610
predicted_WHIP	1.1774

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.8210	1.9257	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0520	2.0216	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8063	3.8063	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.8920	3.9552	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6890	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.9610	6.1533	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1774	1.1774	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	7
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	94

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.32
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	61
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	687570
playerID	687570
playerName	Connor Prielipp
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 17

All-history rows before 20260516: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.647	3.000	-0.647	-3.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.953	1.200	0.147	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	0.059	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	2.5714	1.4286	0.2857	0.7143	0.7143	0.5714
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	6.000	10.000	7.000	11.000	4.7647	1.5000	0.5294	0.8823	0.6177	0.9706
season	0.20	17	19.000	9.000	17.000	11.000	16.000	4.2632	1.4737	0.4737	0.8947	0.5789	0.8421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6250
predicted_ER	0.5540
predicted_ERA	3.9743
predicted_H	1.1080
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0960
predicted_WHIP	1.3809

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6250	0.2558	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5540	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9743	3.9743	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1080	1.0442	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0920	0.0377	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0960	1.0393	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3809	1.3809	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taylor Rogers (573124) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.222	2.000	-1.222	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.794	1.000	0.306	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	1.000	9.000	0.000	6.000	1.2857	1.2857	0.1429	1.2857	0.0000	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	2.000	12.000	3.000	7.000	1.6364	1.3636	0.1818	1.0909	0.2727	0.6364
season	0.20	17	17.100	5.000	20.000	5.000	13.000	2.5962	1.4423	0.2885	1.1539	0.2885	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3620
predicted_ER	0.4430
predicted_ERA	3.1672
predicted_H	1.3110
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1020
predicted_WHIP	1.3295

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3620	0.7449	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4430	0.1771	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1672	3.1672	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3110	0.5242	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0960	0.0384	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1020	1.0408	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3295	1.3295	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	573124
playerID	573124
playerName	Taylor Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Justin Topa (623437) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	1.000	1.591	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.636	0.000	2.364	3.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	1.091	1.000	2.909	3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.668	1.200	0.432	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.682	2.000	-0.682	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	9.000	10.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	16.2000	2.8000	1.8000	2.0000	0.8000	0.8000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	10.000	13.000	5.000	10.000	3.000	10.0000	2.0000	1.1111	1.4444	0.5556	1.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	22	18.200	14.000	24.000	9.000	15.000	4.000	6.7500	1.7679	0.7500	1.2857	0.4821	0.8036	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4960
predicted_ER	0.8420
predicted_ERA	7.5816
predicted_H	1.2470
predicted_HR	0.2570
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9360
predicted_WHIP	1.7428

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4960	1.3871	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.8420	2.1206	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.5816	7.5816	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	1.2470	2.8782	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.2570	1.2898	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9360	0.3814	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7428	1.7428	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	0
HR	2
BF	10
Pitches	37

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.13
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	35
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	623437
playerID	623437
playerName	Justin Topa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

20260516_NYY@NYM

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.64, "home_win_probability": 0.36, "away_win_probability": 0.64, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 NYM", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 NYM", "confidence": 0.64, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 NYM", "winner": "NYY"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "NYY 5 - 2 NYM", "winner": "NYY"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	NYY 4 - 2 NYM	NYY	0.640	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	NYY 5 - 2 NYM	NYY	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away NYY	4-6	0.400	3.60	4	-4	1W	average	average
Home NYM	6-4	0.600	4.50	3.40	11	1L	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away NYY	28-17	0.622	72	1.600	True
Home NYM	18-26	0.409	-20	-0.455	True
Signal	-	-	-2.054	-2.374	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-15	NYY @ NYM	5 - 2	NYY	3	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target NYY	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target NYM	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Player finalized NYY	33	9	6	0	6	6	9
Player finalized NYM	33	9	1	0	2	2	9
Player model fractional NYY	31.26	7.10	5.10	1.39	4.23	6.04	8.54
Player model fractional NYM	31.64	6.86	3.90	0.89	3.35	3.20	7.49
Simulation box NYY	34	7	5	1	5	2	10
Simulation box NYM	34	7	2	0	2	1	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away NYY	Starter	Carlos Rodón	4.10	2	4	5	1	4.54	1.37	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	David Bednar	2.20	0	1	0	0	4.22	1.22	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	Fernando Cruz	1	0	0	1	0	3.11	1.26	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	Tim Hill	1	0	2	1	0	2.69	1.23	True
Home NYM	Starter	Huascar Brazobán	4.20	2	7	3	2	3.91	1.15	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Austin Warren	1.10	0	0	0	0	2.88	1.24	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Brooks Raley	1	0	2	0	0	2.59	1.20	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Devin Williams	1	3	0	3	0	3.77	1.14	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Luke Weaver	1	0	1	1	0	3.07	1.28	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: NYY

Amed Rosario (642708) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2769

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.333	-0.027	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.333	-0.083	-0.083
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.700	1.000	1.300	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.451	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.508	0.333	0.492	0.667
predicted_SO	0.650	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.650	0.000	2.350	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.451	-
predicted_SO	0.650	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	0.023
predicted_3B	0.041	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.329	0.079
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.309	0.009
predicted_H	0.819	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.000
predicted_R	0.531	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.548	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.451	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.706	0.056

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	0.000
predicted_3B	0.041	0.000
predicted_AB	3.329	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.314	0.005
predicted_H	0.831	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.135	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.018
predicted_R	0.546	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.564	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.417	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.696	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.3333	0.2778	0.0000	0.1111	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	4.000	8.000	0.3030	0.3684	0.5152	0.3030	0.0606	0.2727	0.1212	0.2424
season	0.60	20	-	65.000	18.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	14.000	10.000	6.000	13.000	0.2769	0.3333	0.5077	0.2769	0.0615	0.2154	0.0923	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1130
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.4680
predicted_AVG	0.2710
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_H	0.9400
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_OBP	0.3323
predicted_R	0.5850
predicted_RBI	0.6310
predicted_SLG	0.4508
predicted_SO	0.8050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0500	0.1130	0.0729	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0260	0.0413	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.4680	3.3293	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2710	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.3250	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.9400	0.8192	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1530	0.1320	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3323	0.3321	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5850	0.5309	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.6310	0.5477	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4510	0.4508	0.4509	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6500	0.8050	0.7064	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	642708
playerID	642708
playerName	Amed Rosario
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2675

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	1.000	-0.256	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_AB	3.651	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.651	5.000	-1.651	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.200	0.232	0.300
predicted_BB	0.651	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.651	0.000	0.349	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.977	1.000	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.200	0.378	0.550
predicted_R	0.628	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.628	1.000	0.372	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.651	1.000	-0.651	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.471	0.400	0.029	0.100
predicted_SO	0.558	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.558	1.000	-0.558	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.070	-
predicted_AB	3.651	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.651	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.628	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.398	-
predicted_SO	0.558	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.251	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.064	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.631	-0.020
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.653	0.002
predicted_H	0.851	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.072	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.610	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.398	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.551	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.251	0.000
predicted_3B	0.064	0.000
predicted_AB	3.631	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.001
predicted_BB	0.664	0.010
predicted_H	0.863	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.003
predicted_R	0.627	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.608	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.005
predicted_SO	0.542	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.1176	0.2857	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.2353	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	5.000	8.000	4.000	0.2571	0.3953	0.4000	0.2571	0.0000	0.2000	0.2286	0.1143
season	0.60	43	-	157.000	42.000	11.000	3.000	5.000	28.000	27.000	28.000	24.000	0.2675	0.3723	0.4713	0.2675	0.0319	0.1783	0.1783	0.1529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2440
predicted_3B	0.0550
predicted_AB	3.6020
predicted_AVG	0.2366
predicted_BB	0.6570
predicted_H	0.8520
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.3521
predicted_R	0.5830
predicted_RBI	0.5910
predicted_SLG	0.3976
predicted_SO	0.5400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2440	0.2511	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0700	0.0550	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6510	3.6020	3.6309	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2366	0.2368	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6510	0.6570	0.6535	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8520	0.8508	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0750	0.0720	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3521	0.3520	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6280	0.5830	0.6096	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.5910	0.5904	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3980	0.3976	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5580	0.5400	0.5506	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (665862) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2208

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	1.000	-0.195	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.756	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.756	4.000	0.244	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.750	-0.221	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.415	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.415	1.000	-0.415	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	3.000	-0.829	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.800	-0.301	-0.800
predicted_R	0.439	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.439	1.000	-0.439	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.390	2.000	-0.390	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.268	1.000	-0.268	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.351	1.000	-0.351	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.195	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.195	0.000	1.805	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.756	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.415	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.439	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	1.195	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.230	0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.751	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.398	-0.017
predicted_H	0.861	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.422	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.000
predicted_SO	1.218	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.230	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.751	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.405	0.006
predicted_H	0.873	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.077	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.010
predicted_R	0.434	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.423	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.356	-0.034
predicted_SO	1.199	-0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.5000	0.3333	0.0000	0.1667	0.1111	0.4444
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	14.000	0.2368	0.2927	0.3947	0.2368	0.0263	0.1053	0.0790	0.3684
season	0.60	41	-	154.000	34.000	8.000	4.000	16.000	18.000	17.000	49.000	0.2208	0.3006	0.3506	0.2208	0.0260	0.1039	0.1104	0.3182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7430
predicted_AVG	0.2461
predicted_BB	0.3740
predicted_H	0.9210
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.3169
predicted_R	0.3980
predicted_RBI	0.4410
predicted_SLG	0.3900
predicted_SO	1.2520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.2820	0.2304	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7560	3.7430	3.7507	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2461	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4150	0.3740	0.3983	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9210	0.8611	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0840	0.0757	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3169	0.3170	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4390	0.3980	0.4223	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4410	0.4107	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3900	0.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1950	1.2520	1.2182	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	665862
playerID	665862
playerName	Jazz Chisholm Jr.
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Austin Wells (669224) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 33

All-history rows before 20260516: 33

System season_avg: 0.1750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1748

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.121	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.121	4.000	0.879	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_BB	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.237	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.272	0.000	-0.272	0.000
predicted_SO	0.879	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.879	2.000	-0.879	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.121	-
predicted_AVG	0.161	-
predicted_BB	0.545	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.242	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.237	-
predicted_SO	0.879	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.208	0.087
predicted_AVG	0.161	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.479	-0.066
predicted_H	0.460	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.000
predicted_R	0.347	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.136	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.237	0.000
predicted_SO	0.956	0.077

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.208	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.145	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.487	0.007
predicted_H	0.466	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.058	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.016
predicted_R	0.357	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.212	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.942	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.145 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4706
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	14.000	0.1176	0.1892	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.0882	0.4118
season	0.60	33	-	103.000	18.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	18.000	29.000	0.1748	0.2951	0.2718	0.1748	0.0291	0.0485	0.1748	0.2816

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3440
predicted_AVG	0.1606
predicted_BB	0.3780
predicted_H	0.5370
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.2422
predicted_R	0.3680
predicted_RBI	0.1600
predicted_SLG	0.2371
predicted_SO	1.0760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0300	0.0470	0.0367	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1210	3.3440	3.2085	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1610	0.1606	0.1608	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5450	0.3780	0.4795	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.5370	0.4598	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0680	0.0571	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2420	0.2422	0.2421	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3680	0.3467	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1600	0.1357	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2370	0.2371	0.2370	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8790	1.0760	0.9563	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.175

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	669224
playerID	669224
playerName	Austin Wells
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Paul Goldschmidt (502671) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 15

All-history rows before 20260516: 15

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2593

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	1.733	2.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	4.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.500	0.491	0.250
predicted_BB	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	2.000	2.067	1.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.267	1.000	-0.267	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.600	0.395	0.150
predicted_R	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.533	1.000	1.467	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.586	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.593	1.250	0.657	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.586	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.069	0.002
predicted_AB	3.647	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000
predicted_BB	0.454	-0.013
predicted_H	0.989	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.257	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000
predicted_R	0.788	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.516	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.586	0.000
predicted_SO	0.993	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.000
predicted_3B	0.069	0.000
predicted_AB	3.647	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.461	0.007
predicted_H	1.003	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.262	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.356	-0.003
predicted_R	0.811	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.531	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.594	0.008
predicted_SO	0.978	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	0.4211	0.5000	1.0000	0.4210	0.1579	0.2105	0.1579	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	5.000	10.000	0.2821	0.3636	0.6154	0.2821	0.0769	0.1282	0.1282	0.2564
season	0.60	15	-	54.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	12.000	7.000	15.000	0.2593	0.3548	0.5926	0.2593	0.0741	0.1482	0.1296	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.0720
predicted_AB	3.7320
predicted_AVG	0.2791
predicted_BB	0.4300
predicted_H	1.0420
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.2690
predicted_OBP	0.3594
predicted_R	0.7670
predicted_RBI	0.5450
predicted_SLG	0.5859
predicted_SO	0.9810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.1950	0.2415	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.0720	0.0688	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.7320	3.6468	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2791	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.4300	0.4539	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0420	0.9891	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2690	0.2567	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3594	0.3591	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	0.7670	0.7883	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5450	0.5160	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5860	0.5859	0.5860	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9810	0.9933	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	502671
playerID	502671
playerName	Paul Goldschmidt
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ben Rice (700250) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 36

All-history rows before 20260516: 36

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3083

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.6000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.694	5.000	1.306	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.600	-0.308	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.139	3.000	-1.139	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.361	1.000	-0.361	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.415	0.600	-0.415	-0.600
predicted_R	0.861	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.861	2.000	-0.861	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.605	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.669	1.200	-0.669	-1.200
predicted_SO	1.111	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	1.000	0.889	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.292	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.340	-
predicted_OBP	0.378	-
predicted_R	0.861	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.605	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.799	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000
predicted_BB	0.608	-0.059
predicted_H	1.110	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.338	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.378	-0.000
predicted_R	0.810	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.690	-0.000
predicted_SLG	0.605	0.000
predicted_SO	1.100	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.799	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.004
predicted_BB	0.617	0.009
predicted_H	1.125	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.345	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.395	0.017
predicted_R	0.834	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.710	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.627	0.022
predicted_SO	1.083	-0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.091

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.6000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1500	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	4.000	11.000	0.2821	0.3488	0.6154	0.2821	0.1026	0.1795	0.1026	0.2821
season	0.60	36	-	133.000	41.000	9.000	13.000	28.000	31.000	24.000	40.000	0.3083	0.4151	0.6692	0.3083	0.0977	0.2105	0.1804	0.3008

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1750
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7970
predicted_AVG	0.2923
predicted_BB	0.5200
predicted_H	1.1100
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.3360
predicted_OBP	0.3778
predicted_R	0.7350
predicted_RBI	0.6890
predicted_SLG	0.6049
predicted_SO	1.0840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1750	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.7970	3.7988	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2920	0.2923	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.5200	0.6077	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.1100	1.1100	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3400	0.3360	0.3384	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3780	0.3778	0.3779	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8610	0.7350	0.8101	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.6890	0.6896	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6050	0.6049	0.6050	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	1.0840	1.1001	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	700250
playerID	700250
playerName	Ben Rice
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Anthony Volpe (683011) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 2

All-history rows before 20260516: 2

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	1.875	0.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	1.500	3.000	-1.500	-3.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.340	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.429	0.750	-0.429	-0.750
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	1.875	-
predicted_H	0.340	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.704	0.204
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.625	-0.250
predicted_H	0.413	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.077	0.077
predicted_RBI	0.208	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.320	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.188	-0.062

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.704	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.155	-0.043
predicted_BB	1.650	0.025
predicted_H	0.419	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.052	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.475	0.146
predicted_R	0.079	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.214	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.224	-0.096
predicted_SO	1.169	-0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.155 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	2.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	2.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total BB	Total SO	OBP	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	2	-	4.000	3.000	2.000	0.4286	0.7500	0.5000
last_10	0.20	2	-	4.000	3.000	2.000	0.4286	0.7500	0.5000
season	0.60	2	-	4.000	3.000	2.000	0.4286	0.7500	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.4580
predicted_AVG	0.1977
predicted_BB	0.6990
predicted_H	0.6840
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.3285
predicted_R	0.3620
predicted_RBI	0.3480
predicted_SLG	0.3197
predicted_SO	0.9580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1320	0.0281	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.4580	2.7039	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1977	0.1979	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.8750	0.6990	1.6247	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3400	0.6840	0.4132	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0900	0.0506	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3285	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3620	0.0770	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.3480	0.2079	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3197	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	0.9580	1.1879	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	683011
playerID	683011
playerName	Anthony Volpe
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYY
teamID	19

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 45

All-history rows before 20260516: 45

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2671

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.578	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.578	4.000	-0.578	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.250	-0.267	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.756	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.756	0.000	0.244	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.956	1.000	-0.956	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.356	0.000	-0.356	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.401	0.250	-0.151	0.000
predicted_R	0.822	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.822	1.000	0.178	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.538	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.609	0.250	-0.609	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.244	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.244	1.000	-1.244	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.578	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.756	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.822	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.538	-
predicted_SO	1.244	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.593	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000
predicted_BB	0.717	-0.039
predicted_H	0.938	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.271	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.380	-0.000
predicted_R	0.766	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.493	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.538	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.218	-0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.593	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.002
predicted_BB	0.728	0.011
predicted_H	0.951	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.276	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.009
predicted_R	0.788	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.507	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.541	0.003
predicted_SO	1.199	-0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.077

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	14.000	0.2500	0.3721	0.4722	0.2500	0.0556	0.0833	0.1944	0.3889
season	0.60	45	-	161.000	43.000	7.000	16.000	30.000	37.000	34.000	56.000	0.2671	0.4010	0.6087	0.2671	0.0994	0.1863	0.2112	0.3478

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6150
predicted_AVG	0.2629
predicted_BB	0.6600
predicted_H	0.9500
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.2720
predicted_OBP	0.3798
predicted_R	0.6860
predicted_RBI	0.4970
predicted_SLG	0.5378
predicted_SO	1.1800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1740	0.1634	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5780	3.6150	3.5932	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2629	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7560	0.6600	0.7165	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9500	0.9382	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2720	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3798	0.3799	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8220	0.6860	0.7661	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.4970	0.4929	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5380	0.5378	0.5379	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2440	1.1800	1.2177	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Trent Grisham (663757) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 37

All-history rows before 20260516: 37

System season_avg: 0.1650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1654

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.595	5.000	0.405	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.165	0.000	0.335	0.500
predicted_BB	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.730	0.000	-0.730	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.595	0.000	1.405	2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.000	0.198	0.500
predicted_R	0.622	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.622	0.000	0.378	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.568	0.000	0.432	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.316	0.000	0.184	0.500
predicted_SO	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.730	2.000	0.270	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.595	-
predicted_AVG	0.174	-
predicted_BB	0.730	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.622	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	0.730	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.023	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.595	-0.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.000
predicted_BB	0.707	-0.023
predicted_H	0.563	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.110	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.603	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.521	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000
predicted_SO	0.741	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.159	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.718	0.011
predicted_H	0.571	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.112	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.005
predicted_R	0.621	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.536	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.310	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.729	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.1176	0.2857	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.1765	0.2353	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	7.000	7.000	0.1944	0.3256	0.3611	0.1944	0.0278	0.1944	0.1944	0.1944
season	0.60	37	-	133.000	22.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	21.000	23.000	27.000	27.000	0.1654	0.3025	0.3158	0.1654	0.0301	0.1579	0.2030	0.2030

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.5940
predicted_AVG	0.1745
predicted_BB	0.6720
predicted_H	0.6270
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1250
predicted_OBP	0.3040
predicted_R	0.5760
predicted_RBI	0.5820
predicted_SLG	0.3321
predicted_SO	0.7560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1590	0.1608	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0160	0.0226	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5950	3.5940	3.5946	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1740	0.1745	0.1742	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7300	0.6720	0.7065	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6270	0.5633	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1250	0.1101	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3040	0.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6220	0.5760	0.6034	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5820	0.5212	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3321	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7300	0.7560	0.7405	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.165

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	663757
playerID	663757
playerName	Trent Grisham
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Carlos Rodón (607074) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 1

All-history rows before 20260516: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	5.000	5.000	-4.000	-4.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	3.000	3.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.100	4.100	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	4.100	3.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	6.2308	1.6154	0.6923	0.4615	1.1539	0.9231
last_10	0.35	1	4.100	3.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	6.2308	1.6154	0.6923	0.4615	1.1539	0.9231
season	0.20	1	4.100	3.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	6.2308	1.6154	0.6923	0.4615	1.1539	0.9231

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2080
predicted_ER	2.1850
predicted_ERA	4.5374
predicted_H	3.7220
predicted_HR	0.4670
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	4.1190
predicted_WHIP	1.3686

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.2080	1.3599	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.1850	2.0551	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5374	4.5374	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	3.7220	4.6192	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4670	0.1391	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.1190	4.0355	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3686	1.3686	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	4
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	78

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	5
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	6.23
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	78
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	42
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	607074
playerID	607074
playerName	Carlos Rodón
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	1.000	-0.316	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.421	1.000	-0.421	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.105	2.000	-1.105	-2.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	2.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.926	1.000	1.274	1.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	0.000	-0.158	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	5.0625	0.9375	0.5625	0.7500	0.1875	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	4.000	10.000	1.000	10.000	1.000	3.4839	1.0645	0.3871	0.9677	0.0968	0.9677	0.0968
season	0.20	19	19.000	8.000	21.000	6.000	22.000	1.000	3.7895	1.4211	0.4210	1.1053	0.3158	1.1579	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2950
predicted_ER	0.4690
predicted_ERA	4.2230
predicted_H	0.9210
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0080
predicted_WHIP	1.2157

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2950	0.1207	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4690	0.1920	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2230	4.2230	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9210	0.3770	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1290	0.0528	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0080	1.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2157	1.2157	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 21

All-history rows before 20260516: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.590	1.100	0.410	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.190	1.000	-1.190	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	0.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.7241	0.4138	1.2414	0.0000
season	0.20	21	18.000	5.000	14.000	11.000	25.000	2.000	2.5000	1.3889	0.2778	0.7778	0.6111	1.3889	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4040
predicted_ER	0.3450
predicted_ERA	3.1086
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0660
predicted_WHIP	1.2621

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4040	0.1631	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3450	0.1393	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1086	3.1086	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8580	0.9427	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0850	0.0343	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0660	0.4304	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2621	1.2621	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Tim Hill (657612) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.725	0.200	0.275	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.350	0.000	1.650	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2500	0.0000	1.2500	0.0000	0.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.1250	1.1250	0.1250	0.8750	0.2500	0.5000	0.1250
season	0.20	20	18.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.0000	0.7778	0.1111	0.6667	0.1111	0.3889	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_ER	0.2660
predicted_ERA	2.6950
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6310
predicted_WHIP	1.2327

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2380	0.0961	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2660	0.1074	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6950	2.6950	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8580	0.9427	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0870	0.0351	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6310	1.4473	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2327	1.2327	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	657612
playerID	657612
playerName	Tim Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Home Team: NYM

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 33

All-history rows before 20260516: 33

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2269

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2450

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.606	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.606	4.000	0.394	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.023	0.250
predicted_BB	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	0.000	0.182	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.000	-0.023	0.250
predicted_R	0.424	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.576	0.000	-0.576	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.405	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.420	0.000	-0.170	0.250
predicted_SO	0.818	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.818	0.000	-0.818	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.606	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.212	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.424	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.405	-
predicted_SO	0.818	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.671	0.065
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.198	-0.014
predicted_H	0.820	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.067	-
predicted_HR	0.166	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.000
predicted_R	0.439	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.405	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.765	-0.053

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.671	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.194	-0.004
predicted_H	0.780	-0.039
predicted_HBP	0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.156	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.024
predicted_R	0.403	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.505	-0.044
predicted_SLG	0.379	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.780	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4000	0.2500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.3750	0.2000	0.0500	0.1750	0.0250	0.1250
season	0.60	33	-	119.000	27.000	5.000	6.000	19.000	14.000	7.000	27.000	0.2269	0.2734	0.4202	0.2269	0.0504	0.1597	0.0588	0.2269

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1260
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7700
predicted_AVG	0.2295
predicted_BB	0.1760
predicted_H	0.8650
predicted_HBP	0.0670
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_OBP	0.2757
predicted_R	0.4610
predicted_RBI	0.5800
predicted_SLG	0.4047
predicted_SO	0.6840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1260	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6060	3.7700	3.6707	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2295	0.2298	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2120	0.1760	0.1978	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8650	0.8196	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0670	0.0670	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1760	0.1663	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2757	0.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4240	0.4610	0.4386	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5800	0.5497	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4050	0.4047	0.4049	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8180	0.6840	0.7651	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 28

All-history rows before 20260516: 28

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2642

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.786	3.000	0.214	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.333	-0.014	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.500	-0.108	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.485	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.491	1.333	-0.241	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	2.000	-0.714	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.786	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.485	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.783	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.527	-0.044
predicted_H	0.926	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.524	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.553	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.485	0.000
predicted_SO	0.729	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.783	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.517	-0.010
predicted_H	0.882	-0.044
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.225	-0.015
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.003
predicted_R	0.482	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.509	-0.045
predicted_SLG	0.465	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.743	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.059

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.5789	0.2632	0.1053	0.2105	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	7.000	0.1892	0.2619	0.4865	0.1892	0.0811	0.1622	0.1081	0.1892
season	0.60	28	-	106.000	28.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	14.000	14.000	16.000	20.000	0.2642	0.3577	0.4906	0.2641	0.0566	0.1321	0.1509	0.1887

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1040
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.7770
predicted_AVG	0.2480
predicted_BB	0.4600
predicted_H	0.9360
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.2400
predicted_OBP	0.3281
predicted_R	0.5620
predicted_RBI	0.5590
predicted_SLG	0.4853
predicted_SO	0.7530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1040	0.1277	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0360	0.0360	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7860	3.7770	3.7825	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2480	0.2480	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.4600	0.5274	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9360	0.9263	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2400	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3281	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5620	0.5243	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5590	0.5535	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4850	0.4853	0.4851	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7530	0.7293	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Austin Slater (596103) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 3

All-history rows before 20260516: 3

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4000

Diff (system - data): -0.1240

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by -0.1240. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.900	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.400	0.000	0.100	0.500
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.333	0.000	0.667	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.000	0.100	0.500
predicted_R	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	0.000	0.500
predicted_SO	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	0.019
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.058	0.158
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000
predicted_BB	0.212	0.012
predicted_H	0.778	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.335	-0.000
predicted_R	0.335	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.384	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.872	-0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.058	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.044
predicted_BB	0.208	-0.004
predicted_H	0.741	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.014	0.000
predicted_HR	0.041	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.044
predicted_R	0.308	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.175	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.323	-0.061
predicted_SO	0.889	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.3750	0.4118	0.4375	0.3750	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.2759	0.3125	0.3103	0.2759	0.0345	0.0690	0.3103
season	0.60	10	-	29.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.2759	0.3125	0.3103	0.2759	0.0345	0.0690	0.3103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.4120
predicted_AVG	0.2860
predicted_BB	0.2390
predicted_H	0.9760
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.3346
predicted_R	0.4140
predicted_RBI	0.2350
predicted_SLG	0.3838
predicted_SO	0.8100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1630	0.1194	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9000	3.4120	3.0579	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2860	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2390	0.2120	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.9760	0.7782	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0530	0.0440	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3346	0.3349	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.4140	0.3352	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2350	0.1900	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3838	0.3839	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.8100	0.8722	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	596103
playerID	596103
playerName	Austin Slater
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Carson Benge (701807) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 36

All-history rows before 20260516: 36

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2326

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.583	4.000	-0.583	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.306	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	0.000	0.694	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.000	-0.043	0.250
predicted_R	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.380	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_SO	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	1.000	0.222	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.380	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.730	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	-0.012
predicted_H	1.022	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.503	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.436	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.380	0.000
predicted_SO	0.752	-0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.730	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.288	-0.006
predicted_H	0.973	-0.049
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.011
predicted_R	0.463	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.401	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.766	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.3636	0.3636	0.3636	0.3636	0.0000	0.0909	0.0000	0.0909
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	4.000	6.000	0.3421	0.4048	0.5000	0.3421	0.0263	0.1842	0.1053	0.1579
season	0.60	36	-	129.000	30.000	5.000	3.000	13.000	17.000	11.000	28.000	0.2326	0.2929	0.3411	0.2326	0.0233	0.1008	0.0853	0.2170

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7910
predicted_AVG	0.2742
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_H	1.0400
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.3251
predicted_R	0.5500
predicted_RBI	0.4440
predicted_SLG	0.3804
predicted_SO	0.7120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1540	0.1450	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.7910	3.7302	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2742	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.2750	0.2937	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0400	1.0220	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0810	0.0804	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3251	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.5500	0.5031	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4440	0.4356	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3800	0.3804	0.3802	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.7120	0.7517	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	701807
playerID	701807
playerName	Carson Benge
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2293

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.568	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.568	3.000	0.432	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.333	0.021	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.295	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.295	1.000	-0.295	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	0.182	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.500	-0.041	-0.250
predicted_R	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.333	-0.075	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.773	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.773	1.000	0.227	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.568	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.295	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.341	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.373	-
predicted_SO	0.773	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.579	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.330	0.035
predicted_H	0.802	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.379	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.295	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.000
predicted_SO	0.775	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.579	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.324	-0.006
predicted_H	0.764	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.107	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.036
predicted_R	0.349	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.271	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.789	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=26.0, weight=0.186, BvP AVG=0.192)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.4857	0.2857	0.0571	0.0857	0.1429	0.2000
season	0.60	44	-	157.000	36.000	6.000	3.000	14.000	15.000	13.000	34.000	0.2293	0.2907	0.3248	0.2293	0.0191	0.0892	0.0828	0.2166

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1130
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5960
predicted_AVG	0.2399
predicted_BB	0.3810
predicted_H	0.8630
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3145
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.3170
predicted_SLG	0.3734
predicted_SO	0.7770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1130	0.1266	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5680	3.5960	3.5794	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2399	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2950	0.3810	0.3300	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8630	0.8019	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1210	0.1145	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3145	0.3148	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3410	0.4350	0.3792	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3170	0.2950	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3730	0.3734	0.3732	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7730	0.7770	0.7746	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2135

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.045	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.045	4.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.000	0.037	0.250
predicted_BB	0.295	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.864	0.000	0.136	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.000	-0.014	0.250
predicted_R	0.386	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.386	0.000	-0.386	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.233	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.275	0.000	-0.025	0.250
predicted_SO	0.773	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.773	1.000	1.227	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.045	-
predicted_AVG	0.180	-
predicted_BB	0.295	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.386	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.233	-
predicted_SO	0.773	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.997	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.000
predicted_BB	0.332	0.037
predicted_H	0.715	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.000
predicted_R	0.358	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.405	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.233	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.760	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.997	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.326	-0.006
predicted_H	0.681	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.037	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.021
predicted_R	0.329	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.372	-0.033
predicted_SLG	0.224	-0.009
predicted_SO	0.774	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 4.045

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.1053	0.2273	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.1053	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	0.1053	0.2093	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0790	0.1316	0.1316
season	0.60	44	-	178.000	38.000	5.000	2.000	18.000	17.000	13.000	34.000	0.2135	0.2642	0.2753	0.2135	0.0112	0.1011	0.0730	0.1910

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9270
predicted_AVG	0.1801
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_H	0.7070
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.2538
predicted_R	0.3170
predicted_RBI	0.3970
predicted_SLG	0.2325
predicted_SO	0.7410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.0820	0.1009	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0450	3.9270	3.9965	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1800	0.1801	0.1800	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2950	0.3850	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7070	0.7147	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2538	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3860	0.3170	0.3577	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.3970	0.4047	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2330	0.2325	0.2328	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7730	0.7410	0.7599	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYM
teamID	18

A.J. Ewing (805999) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 4

All-history rows before 20260516: 4

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_BB	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.438	0.000	-0.188	0.250
predicted_R	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.489	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.667	0.000	-0.167	0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.250	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	1.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.489	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.028
predicted_3B	0.214	-0.036
predicted_AB	3.135	0.135
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.891	-0.109
predicted_H	0.691	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000
predicted_R	0.923	-0.077
predicted_RBI	0.472	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.489	0.000
predicted_SO	0.980	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.000
predicted_3B	0.214	0.000
predicted_AB	3.135	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.874	-0.017
predicted_H	0.658	-0.033
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.133	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.031
predicted_R	0.849	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.434	-0.038
predicted_SLG	0.483	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.999	0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	12.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.2500	0.4375	0.6667	0.2500	0.0833	0.2500	0.3333	0.3333
last_10	0.20	4	-	12.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.2500	0.4375	0.6667	0.2500	0.0833	0.2500	0.3333	0.3333
season	0.60	4	-	12.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.2500	0.4375	0.6667	0.2500	0.0833	0.2500	0.3333	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.1100
predicted_AB	3.5200
predicted_AVG	0.2460
predicted_BB	0.5790
predicted_H	0.8660
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_OBP	0.3512
predicted_R	0.7050
predicted_RBI	0.5910
predicted_SLG	0.4891
predicted_SO	0.9240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1080	0.0280	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.2500	0.1100	0.2137	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.5200	3.1348	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2460	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5790	0.8909	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8660	0.6912	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1760	0.1419	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3512	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_R	1.0000	0.7050	0.9235	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5910	0.4717	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4890	0.4891	0.4890	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9240	0.9803	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	805999
playerID	805999
playerName	A.J. Ewing
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luis Torrens (620443) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 15

All-history rows before 20260516: 15

System season_avg: 0.1740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1739

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.067	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.067	3.000	-0.067
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.174	0.000	-0.174
predicted_BB	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	0.000	-0.133
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.533	0.000	-0.533
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.224	0.000	-0.224
predicted_R	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.267	0.000	-0.267
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.267	0.000	-0.267
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.239	0.000	-0.239
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	-0.600

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.067	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.133	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.267	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.303	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.003
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.164	0.097
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.157	0.024
predicted_H	0.566	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.078	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.000
predicted_R	0.301	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.303	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.636	0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.164	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.154	-0.003
predicted_H	0.539	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.078	0.000
predicted_HR	0.032	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.209	-0.055
predicted_R	0.276	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.276	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.266	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.648	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.2500	0.1875	0.1250	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.1667	0.2424	0.2667	0.1667	0.1000	0.0667	0.2333
season	0.60	15	-	46.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.1739	0.2245	0.2391	0.1739	0.0870	0.0435	0.1956

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3530
predicted_AVG	0.2013
predicted_BB	0.2030
predicted_H	0.6750
predicted_HBP	0.0780
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.2640
predicted_R	0.3660
predicted_RBI	0.3600
predicted_SLG	0.3028
predicted_SO	0.7050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2090	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0670	3.3530	3.1639	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2013	0.2011	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1330	0.2030	0.1567	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6750	0.5659	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0780	0.0780	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0410	0.0337	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2640	0.2640	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2670	0.3660	0.3006	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3600	0.3005	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3030	0.3028	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.7050	0.6356	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.174

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	620443
playerID	620443
playerName	Luis Torrens
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brett Baty (683146) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 34

All-history rows before 20260516: 34

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2437

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.667	-0.244	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	1.000	-0.294	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.853	2.000	-0.853	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.750	-0.305	-0.750
predicted_R	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.441	1.000	-0.441	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.667	-0.361	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.088	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.088	1.000	-0.088	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.419	-
predicted_SO	1.088	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.004
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.529	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.320	0.026
predicted_H	0.883	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.037	-
predicted_HR	0.088	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.476	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.445	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.000
predicted_SO	1.080	-0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.529	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.314	-0.006
predicted_H	0.841	-0.042
predicted_HBP	0.037	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.044
predicted_R	0.438	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.409	-0.036
predicted_SLG	0.373	-0.046
predicted_SO	1.101	0.021

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.3889	0.4500	0.6111	0.3889	0.0556	0.2222	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	11.000	0.2857	0.4048	0.4286	0.2857	0.0286	0.1143	0.1714	0.3143
season	0.60	34	-	119.000	29.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	15.000	16.000	10.000	37.000	0.2437	0.3053	0.3613	0.2437	0.0168	0.1260	0.0840	0.3109

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.5720
predicted_AVG	0.2742
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_H	0.9790
predicted_HBP	0.0370
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.3450
predicted_R	0.4850
predicted_RBI	0.4980
predicted_SLG	0.4191
predicted_SO	1.0680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1850	0.1796	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0170	0.0243	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5720	3.5285	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2742	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.3600	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9790	0.8829	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0370	0.0370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1000	0.0879	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3450	0.3450	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.4850	0.4765	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4980	0.4448	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4190	0.4191	0.4190	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0880	1.0680	1.0801	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	683146
playerID	683146
playerName	Brett Baty
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Huascar Brazobán (623211) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	0.000	1.556	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	1.722	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.667	0.000	2.333	3.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.933	2.100	3.267	2.100
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	0.889	2.000	6.111	5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	3.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	4.0500	0.9000	0.4500	0.1500	0.7500	0.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	9.000	1.000	3.7500	1.0000	0.4167	0.3333	0.6667	0.7500	0.0833
season	0.20	18	21.000	5.000	12.000	8.000	16.000	1.000	2.1429	0.9524	0.2381	0.5714	0.3810	0.7619	0.0476

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5810
predicted_ER	1.3680
predicted_ERA	3.9097
predicted_H	2.0390
predicted_HR	0.2780
predicted_IP	3.0000
predicted_SO	2.6230
predicted_WHIP	1.1492

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.5810	1.8241	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.3680	1.7347	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9097	3.9097	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	2.0390	2.5966	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2780	0.1167	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	3.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	2.6230	5.1628	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1492	1.1492	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	7
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	78

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.14
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	21
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	623211
playerID	623211
playerName	Huascar Brazobán
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Austin Warren (681810) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.200	1.200	-0.100	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.667	2.000	-1.667	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.100	0.000	4.000	5.000	10.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0800	0.0000	0.4800	0.6000	1.2000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	9	12.200	1.000	8.000	6.000	15.000	1.000	0.7105	1.1053	0.0790	0.6316	0.4737	1.1842	0.0790
season	0.20	9	12.200	1.000	8.000	6.000	15.000	1.000	0.7105	1.1053	0.0790	0.6316	0.4737	1.1842	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6140
predicted_ER	0.4490
predicted_ERA	2.8838
predicted_H	1.1280
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4520
predicted_WHIP	1.2424

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6140	0.2266	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4490	0.1657	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8838	2.8838	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1280	0.4162	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1350	0.0498	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4520	0.5358	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2424	1.2424	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.71
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	681810
playerID	681810
playerName	Austin Warren
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.828	1.000	0.172	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.111	1.000	0.889	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	1.1250	0.0000	0.7500	0.3750	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	0.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9310	0.0000	0.6207	0.3103	1.1379	0.0000
season	0.20	18	17.000	2.000	10.000	6.000	20.000	1.000	1.0588	0.9412	0.1177	0.5882	0.3529	1.1765	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3670
predicted_ER	0.2880
predicted_ERA	2.5907
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0300
predicted_WHIP	1.1987

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3670	0.1460	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2880	0.1146	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5907	2.5907	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8310	0.3307	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0820	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0300	1.6140	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1987	1.1987	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.06
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 16

All-history rows before 20260516: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	2.500	3.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.938	0.000	2.062	3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.781	1.000	0.219	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.375	1.000	-1.375	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000	0.2143	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	6.000	9.000	2.000	15.000	1.000	6.2308	1.2692	0.6923	1.0385	0.2308	1.7308	0.1154
season	0.20	15	13.200	6.000	14.000	4.000	22.000	1.000	3.9512	1.3171	0.4390	1.0244	0.2927	1.6098	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_ER	0.4190
predicted_ERA	3.7665
predicted_H	0.8080
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1840
predicted_WHIP	1.1379

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3300	0.1242	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.4190	2.0290	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7665	3.7665	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.8080	2.1753	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1030	0.6625	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1840	0.4454	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1379	1.1379	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.27
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 17

All-history rows before 20260516: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.924	1.000	0.076	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3125	0.0000	0.7500	0.5625	1.6875	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	4.000	13.000	1.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	1.2188	0.0938
season	0.20	17	17.100	8.000	14.000	7.000	17.000	2.000	4.1538	1.2115	0.4615	0.8077	0.4038	0.9808	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4150
predicted_ER	0.3410
predicted_ERA	3.0655
predicted_H	0.8660
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1300
predicted_WHIP	1.2815

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4150	0.1660	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3410	0.1364	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0655	3.0655	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8660	0.9464	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1300	1.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2815	1.2815	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

20260516_PHI@PIT

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "PHI 5 - 6 PIT", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Season quality guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "PHI 5 - 6 PIT", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "PHI 5 - 6 PIT", "winner": "PIT"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	PHI 5 - 6 PIT	PIT	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	PHI 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away PHI	7-3	0.700	5.50	4.20	13	2W	hot	average
Home PIT	5-5	0.500	4.90	5	-1	1L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away PHI	22-23	0.489	-29	-0.644	True
Home PIT	24-21	0.533	30	0.667	True
Signal	-	-	1.311	1.378	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-15	PHI @ PIT	11 - 9	PHI	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target PHI	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target PIT	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Player finalized PHI	35	9	4	1	3	2	9
Player finalized PIT	35	8	5	0	4	2	9
Player model fractional PHI	33.88	8.20	4.30	1.36	4.10	2.78	7.61
Player model fractional PIT	34.30	8.03	4.97	1.16	4.57	3.97	8.63
Simulation box PHI	37	10	4	3	4	4	7
Simulation box PIT	30	6	5	1	5	6	3

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away PHI	Starter	Cristopher Sánchez	6.10	3	3	4	5	2.89	1.27	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Jhoan Duran	1	2	0	1	1	3.32	1.31	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Brad Keller	0.20	0	0	1	0	3.62	1.39	True
Home PIT	Starter	Bubba Chandler	5	4	3	8	3	4.63	1.38	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Dennis Santana	1	0	2	0	0	4.30	1.38	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Gregory Soto	1.10	0	2	1	0	4.22	1.23	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Mason Montgomery	1	0	0	1	0	3.12	1.15	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Isaac Mattson	0.20	0	0	0	1	8.24	1.66	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: PHI

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2822

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.8000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.705	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.705	5.000	-0.705	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.800	0.051	-0.467
predicted_BB	0.545	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.545	0.000	1.455	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.045	4.000	-0.045	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.230	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.227	0.000	0.773	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.800	0.228	-0.200
predicted_R	0.591	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.591	1.000	0.409	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.591	2.000	1.409	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.527	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.534	0.800	0.800	0.533
predicted_SO	0.682	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.682	0.000	1.318	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.705	-
predicted_AVG	0.292	-
predicted_BB	0.545	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.591	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.527	-
predicted_SO	0.682	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.752	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000
predicted_BB	0.505	-0.040
predicted_H	1.083	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.234	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.366	-0.000
predicted_R	0.589	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.581	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.527	0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.752	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.502	-0.004
predicted_H	1.075	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.005
predicted_R	0.581	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.573	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.530	0.003
predicted_SO	0.705	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.287 HR/AB=0.061

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.4286	0.2857	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	14.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	8.000	5.000	5.000	0.3684	0.4419	0.7105	0.3684	0.1053	0.1842	0.1316	0.1316
season	0.60	44	-	163.000	46.000	9.000	1.000	10.000	26.000	26.000	24.000	30.000	0.2822	0.3723	0.5337	0.2822	0.0614	0.1595	0.1472	0.1840

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8190
predicted_AVG	0.2924
predicted_BB	0.4480
predicted_H	1.1170
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2390
predicted_OBP	0.3657
predicted_R	0.5850
predicted_RBI	0.5960
predicted_SLG	0.5269
predicted_SO	0.7250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.1510	0.1829	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7050	3.8190	3.7517	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2920	0.2924	0.2922	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5450	0.4480	0.5053	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.1170	1.0834	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2390	0.2337	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3657	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5910	0.5850	0.5885	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5960	0.5807	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5270	0.5269	0.5270	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6820	0.7250	0.6996	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	2
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.8
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryson Stott (681082) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 34

All-history rows before 20260516: 34

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.706	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.706	4.000	0.294	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.250	-0.214	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.794	1.000	-0.794	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.200	-0.259	-0.200
predicted_R	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.382	1.000	-0.382	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.265	1.000	-0.265	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.250	-0.365	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.647	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.706	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.206	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.267	-
predicted_R	0.382	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.393	-
predicted_SO	0.647	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.029
predicted_3B	0.048	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.725	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.191	-0.015
predicted_H	0.773	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.000
predicted_R	0.418	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.475	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.000
predicted_SO	0.637	-0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.725	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.190	-0.001
predicted_H	0.767	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.244	-0.022
predicted_R	0.412	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.469	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.356	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.641	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	0.2368	0.2500	0.5000	0.2368	0.0526	0.2368	0.0263	0.1316
season	0.60	34	-	126.000	27.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	16.000	13.000	7.000	22.000	0.2143	0.2593	0.3651	0.2143	0.0238	0.1270	0.0556	0.1746

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2490
predicted_3B	0.0320
predicted_AB	3.7530
predicted_AVG	0.2314
predicted_BB	0.1690
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.2668
predicted_R	0.4730
predicted_RBI	0.5290
predicted_SLG	0.3930
predicted_SO	0.6210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.2490	0.2050	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0320	0.0483	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7060	3.7530	3.7247	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2314	0.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2060	0.1690	0.1913	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8680	0.7727	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0980	0.0871	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2670	0.2668	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3820	0.4730	0.4181	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5290	0.4753	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3930	0.3930	0.3930	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6470	0.6210	0.6367	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	681082
playerID	681082
playerName	Bryson Stott
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brandon Marsh (669016) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 38

All-history rows before 20260516: 38

System season_avg: 0.3360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3356

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	1.000	-0.184	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.842	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.842	5.000	1.158	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.336	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.336	0.200	0.064	0.200
predicted_BB	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.289	1.000	0.711	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.200	0.041	0.200
predicted_R	0.605	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.605	1.000	-0.605	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.579	1.000	-0.579	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.454	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.479	0.400	-0.079	0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.711	0.000	-0.711	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.842	-
predicted_AVG	0.336	-
predicted_BB	0.158	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.605	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.454	-
predicted_SO	0.711	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.028	0.002
predicted_AB	3.854	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.336	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.159	0.001
predicted_H	1.210	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.000
predicted_R	0.611	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.454	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.673	-0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.854	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.312	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.158	-0.001
predicted_H	1.202	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.021
predicted_R	0.603	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.434	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.423	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.677	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.312 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.842

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.4000	0.3500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	16.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	5.000	0.4103	0.4286	0.4872	0.4103	0.0000	0.1026	0.0513	0.1282
season	0.60	38	-	146.000	49.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	22.000	23.000	6.000	27.000	0.3356	0.3590	0.4795	0.3356	0.0274	0.1507	0.0411	0.1849

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1720
predicted_3B	0.0320
predicted_AB	3.8710
predicted_AVG	0.3357
predicted_BB	0.1600
predicted_H	1.3000
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.3605
predicted_R	0.6190
predicted_RBI	0.4700
predicted_SLG	0.4537
predicted_SO	0.6160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1720	0.1792	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0320	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8420	3.8710	3.8537	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3360	0.3357	0.3359	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1580	0.1600	0.1588	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.3000	1.2104	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0730	0.0652	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3605	0.3602	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6050	0.6190	0.6106	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4700	0.4401	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4540	0.4537	0.4539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7110	0.6160	0.6727	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.336

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-LF
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	669016
playerID	669016
playerName	Brandon Marsh
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Adolis García (666969) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2166

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.738	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.738	4.000	-0.738	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.000	0.117	0.333
predicted_BB	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.310	0.000	0.690	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.810	0.000	0.190	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	0.929	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.000	0.218	0.500
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.298	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.000	1.008	1.333
predicted_SO	1.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	2.000	-0.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.738	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.310	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.243	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.298	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.003
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.771	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	-0.030
predicted_H	0.670	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.030	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.243	-0.000
predicted_R	0.359	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.228	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.000
predicted_SO	1.173	0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.278	-0.002
predicted_H	0.665	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.010
predicted_R	0.354	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.225	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.276	-0.022
predicted_SO	1.182	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	14.000	0.1795	0.2143	0.2821	0.1795	0.0256	0.0513	0.0513	0.3590
season	0.60	42	-	157.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	13.000	48.000	0.2166	0.2816	0.3248	0.2166	0.0191	0.0764	0.0828	0.3057

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8190
predicted_AVG	0.1944
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	0.7420
predicted_HBP	0.0300
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.2426
predicted_R	0.3960
predicted_RBI	0.2530
predicted_SLG	0.2979
predicted_SO	1.2180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1510	0.1463	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7380	3.8190	3.7710	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1944	0.1942	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3100	0.2370	0.2803	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7420	0.6697	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0300	0.0300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0720	0.0649	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2430	0.2426	0.2428	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3960	0.3586	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2530	0.2275	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2980	0.2979	0.2980	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.2180	1.1735	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	666969
playerID	666969
playerName	Adolis García
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Trea Turner (607208) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.350	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.233	6.000	-0.233	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.167	-0.231	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.279	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.279	0.000	0.721	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.977	1.000	-0.977	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.277	0.167	-0.077	0.033
predicted_R	0.628	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.628	2.000	-0.628	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.302	0.000	-0.302	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.310	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.335	0.167	-0.335	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.977	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.977	2.000	1.023	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.350	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.279	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.628	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.310	-
predicted_SO	0.977	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.330	-0.020
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.242	-0.037
predicted_H	1.005	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.000
predicted_R	0.630	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.298	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.310	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.007	0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.330	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.241	-0.002
predicted_H	0.997	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.007
predicted_R	0.622	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.294	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.312	0.002
predicted_SO	1.015	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.350

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	0.2609	0.2609	0.2609	0.2609	0.0000	0.0435	0.0000	0.2609
last_10	0.20	10	-	46.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	13.000	0.1957	0.1957	0.2174	0.1956	0.0000	0.0435	0.0000	0.2826
season	0.60	43	-	182.000	42.000	7.000	4.000	13.000	27.000	12.000	42.000	0.2308	0.2769	0.3352	0.2308	0.0220	0.0714	0.0659	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1290
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.3020
predicted_AVG	0.2317
predicted_BB	0.1900
predicted_H	0.9970
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.2638
predicted_R	0.6330
predicted_RBI	0.2960
predicted_SLG	0.3098
predicted_SO	1.0510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.1290	0.1490	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3500	4.3020	4.3303	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2317	0.2319	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2790	0.1900	0.2424	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	0.9970	1.0047	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0680	0.0692	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2638	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6280	0.6330	0.6301	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.2960	0.2984	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3100	0.3098	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9770	1.0510	1.0074	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.167
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	607208
playerID	607208
playerName	Trea Turner
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

Alec Bohm (664761) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 40

All-history rows before 20260516: 40

System season_avg: 0.1960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1959

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	5.000	1.300	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.196	0.200	0.004	0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.725	1.000	0.275	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.256	0.200	-0.056	0.000
predicted_R	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.284	0.200	-0.084	0.000
predicted_SO	0.575	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.575	0.000	0.425	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.275	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.341	-
predicted_SO	0.575	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.713	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.265	-0.010
predicted_H	0.870	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.030	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.000
predicted_R	0.353	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.449	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.562	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.713	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.263	-0.002
predicted_H	0.864	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.089	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.009
predicted_R	0.348	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.443	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.331	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.566	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.3158	0.3158	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	11.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	0.2973	0.3333	0.4865	0.2973	0.0541	0.1622	0.0541	0.0811
season	0.60	40	-	148.000	29.000	4.000	3.000	20.000	12.000	11.000	23.000	0.1959	0.2561	0.2838	0.1960	0.0203	0.1351	0.0743	0.1554

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7320
predicted_AVG	0.2407
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HBP	0.0300
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_OBP	0.2926
predicted_R	0.4300
predicted_RBI	0.4630
predicted_SLG	0.3406
predicted_SO	0.5420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0950	0.0980	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.7320	3.7130	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2407	0.2409	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2750	0.2510	0.2653	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8990	0.8698	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0300	0.0300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0910	0.0904	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2926	0.2928	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.4300	0.3526	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4630	0.4493	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3410	0.3406	0.3408	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5750	0.5420	0.5616	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.196

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	664761
playerID	664761
playerName	Alec Bohm
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Kyle Schwarber (656941) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 45

All-history rows before 20260516: 45

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2367

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.6000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.756	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.756	5.000	1.244	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.600	0.163	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	3.000	1.111	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.444	2.000	-0.444	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.667	0.035	-0.267
predicted_R	0.711	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.711	2.000	0.289	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.030	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.778	5.000	-0.778	-5.000
predicted_SLG	0.796	0.400	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.645	1.800	-0.245	-1.400
predicted_SO	1.422	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.422	1.000	-1.422	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.756	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.590	-
predicted_OBP	0.388	-
predicted_R	0.711	-
predicted_RBI	1.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.796	-
predicted_SO	1.422	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.793	0.037
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000
predicted_BB	0.646	-0.021
predicted_H	1.065	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.598	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.388	-0.000
predicted_R	0.754	0.043
predicted_RBI	1.046	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.796	0.000
predicted_SO	1.367	-0.055

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.793	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.641	-0.005
predicted_H	1.057	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.052	0.000
predicted_HR	0.588	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.383	-0.005
predicted_R	0.744	-0.010
predicted_RBI	1.033	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.791	-0.005
predicted_SO	1.377	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.155

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	10.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	0.4211	0.5217	1.3684	0.4210	0.3158	0.5263	0.2105	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	9.000	15.000	10.000	5.000	15.000	0.3095	0.3830	0.9762	0.3095	0.2143	0.3571	0.1191	0.3571
season	0.60	45	-	169.000	40.000	7.000	1.000	20.000	35.000	32.000	30.000	64.000	0.2367	0.3645	0.6450	0.2367	0.1183	0.2071	0.1775	0.3787

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1230
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8460
predicted_AVG	0.2824
predicted_BB	0.6150
predicted_H	1.0860
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.6090
predicted_OBP	0.3875
predicted_R	0.8160
predicted_RBI	1.0700
predicted_SLG	0.7965
predicted_SO	1.2880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1230	0.1424	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0140	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7560	3.8460	3.7931	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2824	0.2822	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.6150	0.6456	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.0860	1.0648	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.5900	0.6090	0.5978	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3880	0.3875	0.3878	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7110	0.8160	0.7543	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0300	1.0700	1.0465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7960	0.7965	0.7962	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4220	1.2880	1.3667	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	5
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	9
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	656941
playerID	656941
playerName	Kyle Schwarber
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PHI
teamID	21

J.T. Realmuto (592663) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 26

All-history rows before 20260516: 26

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.333	0.019	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.808	1.000	0.192	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.290	0.500	-0.040	-0.250
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.287	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.333	-0.058	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.654	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.654	2.000	-0.654	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.192	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.287	-
predicted_SO	0.654	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.544	0.044
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.177	-0.015
predicted_H	0.672	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.108	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.317	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.279	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.287	0.000
predicted_SO	0.677	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.544	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.176	-0.001
predicted_H	0.667	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.108	0.000
predicted_HR	0.041	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.227	-0.033
predicted_R	0.313	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.275	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.266	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.681	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.1892	0.2051	0.2432	0.1892	0.0000	0.1081	0.0000	0.1622
season	0.60	26	-	91.000	21.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	8.000	5.000	17.000	0.2308	0.2900	0.3077	0.2308	0.0110	0.0879	0.0549	0.1868

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6150
predicted_AVG	0.2090
predicted_BB	0.1540
predicted_H	0.7550
predicted_HBP	0.1080
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.2601
predicted_R	0.3310
predicted_RBI	0.3100
predicted_SLG	0.2875
predicted_SO	0.7130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1430	0.1498	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6150	3.5440	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2090	0.2090	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1920	0.1540	0.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7550	0.6716	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1080	0.1080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0419	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2601	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.3310	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3100	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2870	0.2875	0.2872	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6540	0.7130	0.6766	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	592663
playerID	592663
playerName	J.T. Realmuto
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Justin Crawford (702222) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 36

All-history rows before 20260516: 36

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2869

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.389	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.389	5.000	0.611	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.400	0.213	0.100
predicted_BB	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.972	2.000	1.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	0.944	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.400	0.144	0.100
predicted_R	0.306	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.306	0.000	0.694	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.498	1.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.426	0.400	1.074	1.100
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.389	-
predicted_AVG	0.301	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.306	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.498	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.046	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.401	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.000
predicted_BB	0.331	0.025
predicted_H	0.915	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.033	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.000
predicted_R	0.325	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.359	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.498	0.000
predicted_SO	0.764	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.000
predicted_3B	0.046	0.000
predicted_AB	3.401	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.329	-0.002
predicted_H	0.908	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.033	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.042
predicted_R	0.320	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.355	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.462	-0.036
predicted_SO	0.770	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.3750	0.4737	0.7500	0.3750	0.1250	0.1875	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.3333	0.4054	0.5758	0.3333	0.0606	0.1515	0.1212	0.2424
season	0.60	36	-	122.000	35.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	11.000	11.000	27.000	0.2869	0.3556	0.4262	0.2869	0.0164	0.0820	0.0902	0.2213

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0300
predicted_AB	3.4180
predicted_AVG	0.3011
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_H	1.0290
predicted_HBP	0.0330
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_OBP	0.3739
predicted_R	0.3530
predicted_RBI	0.4040
predicted_SLG	0.4979
predicted_SO	0.7860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1600	0.1805	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0300	0.0457	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3890	3.4180	3.4005	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3010	0.3011	0.3010	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.3700	0.3314	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.0290	0.9150	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0330	0.0330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1510	0.1323	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3739	0.3740	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3060	0.3530	0.3247	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4040	0.3594	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4980	0.4979	0.4980	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7860	0.7643	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	702222
playerID	702222
playerName	Justin Crawford
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Cristopher Sánchez (650911) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_BB	1.556	0.000	3.444	5.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.444	0.000	1.556	3.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	6.333	6.000	-2.333	-2.000
predicted_IP	6.100	6.100	6.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.044	7.000	0.056	-0.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	7.444	7.000	-4.444	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	33.000	8.000	33.000	7.000	36.000	2.000	2.1818	1.2121	0.2424	1.0000	0.2121	1.0909	0.0606
last_10	0.35	9	55.100	13.000	57.000	14.000	67.000	3.000	2.1145	1.2831	0.2349	1.0301	0.2530	1.2108	0.0542
season	0.20	9	55.100	13.000	57.000	14.000	67.000	3.000	2.1145	1.2831	0.2349	1.0301	0.2530	1.2108	0.0542

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8030
predicted_ER	2.0460
predicted_ERA	2.8854
predicted_H	6.2910
predicted_HR	0.5340
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	6.8450
predicted_WHIP	1.2679

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	1.8030	3.4043	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.0460	2.5238	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8854	2.8854	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	6.2910	5.1435	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5340	0.2665	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.1000	6.1000	6.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	6.8450	3.9174	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2679	1.2679	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.1
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	5
SO	3
HR	0
BF	28
Pitches	112

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.11
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	103
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	72
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	650911
playerID	650911
playerName	Cristopher Sánchez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jhoan Duran (661395) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 13

All-history rows before 20260516: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.385	1.000	0.615	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.154	0.000	1.846	2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.615	0.000	0.385	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.862	1.000	0.138	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.462	3.000	-1.462	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	1.8000	1.6000	0.2000	0.6000	1.0000	2.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	16.000	0.9000	1.0000	0.1000	0.5000	0.5000	1.6000
season	0.20	12	11.200	2.000	8.000	5.000	19.000	1.5429	1.1143	0.1714	0.6857	0.4286	1.6286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4850
predicted_ER	0.3690
predicted_ERA	3.3227
predicted_H	0.8260
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2470
predicted_WHIP	1.3109

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4850	0.8139	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3690	1.4106	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3227	3.3227	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8260	0.9371	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0880	0.6705	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2470	1.0893	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3109	1.3109	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	661395
playerID	661395
playerName	Jhoan Duran
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.895	1.000	0.105	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.921	1.000	-0.721	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.211	2.000	-1.211	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	1.8000	1.8000	0.2000	1.4000	0.4000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	9.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.9000	0.3000	1.4000	0.1000
season	0.20	19	18.200	8.000	17.000	6.000	23.000	2.000	3.8571	1.2321	0.4286	0.9107	0.3214	1.2321	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_ER	0.3250
predicted_ERA	3.6205
predicted_H	0.8240
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9460
predicted_WHIP	1.3862

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2970	0.1210	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3250	0.1324	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6205	3.6205	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8240	0.9283	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0790	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9460	0.9780	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3862	1.3862	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Home Team: PIT

Bryan Reynolds (668804) · BATTER · LF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2581

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.047	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.605	5.000	-0.605	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.400	0.075	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.791	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.791	0.000	0.209	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.930	2.000	0.070	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.396	0.400	0.104	0.100
predicted_R	0.674	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.674	1.000	0.326	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.605	0.000	1.395	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.400	-0.060	-0.067
predicted_SO	1.023	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.023	0.000	-0.023	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-
predicted_3B	0.047	-
predicted_AB	3.605	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.791	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.367	-
predicted_R	0.674	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.348	-
predicted_SO	1.023	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.039	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.643	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	0.725	-0.067
predicted_H	0.927	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.000
predicted_R	0.619	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.569	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.348	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.922	-0.101

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	0.000
predicted_3B	0.039	0.000
predicted_AB	3.643	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.001
predicted_BB	0.730	0.006
predicted_H	0.940	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.015
predicted_R	0.634	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.583	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.013
predicted_SO	0.915	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.364)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.3000	0.3000	0.0000	0.2000	0.1000	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.1389
season	0.60	43	-	155.000	40.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	26.000	29.000	34.000	44.000	0.2581	0.3958	0.3935	0.2581	0.0258	0.1677	0.2193	0.2839

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0860
predicted_3B	0.0270
predicted_AB	3.6980
predicted_AVG	0.2572
predicted_BB	0.6290
predicted_H	0.9510
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.3672
predicted_R	0.5410
predicted_RBI	0.5830
predicted_SLG	0.3478
predicted_SO	0.7780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1160	0.0860	0.1037	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0470	0.0270	0.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6050	3.6980	3.6432	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2572	0.2571	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7910	0.6290	0.7245	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9510	0.9268	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0660	0.0625	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3670	0.3672	0.3671	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6740	0.5410	0.6194	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.5830	0.5694	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3480	0.3478	0.3479	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0230	0.7780	0.9224	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	668804
playerID	668804
playerName	Bryan Reynolds
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Konnor Griffin (804606) · BATTER · SS · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 37

All-history rows before 20260516: 37

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2553

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.811	5.000	-0.811	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.200	-0.255	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.297	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.297	0.000	0.703	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.973	1.000	-0.973	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.200	-0.066	0.050
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.514	1.000	-0.514	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	1.000	-0.514	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.200	-0.390	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.162	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.162	1.000	-0.162	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	3.811	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.297	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.389	-
predicted_SO	1.162	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.006
predicted_3B	0.044	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.856	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.291	-0.006
predicted_H	0.936	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.033	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.548	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.459	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.142	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.856	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.002
predicted_BB	0.293	0.002
predicted_H	0.950	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.033	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.001
predicted_R	0.561	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.007
predicted_SO	1.133	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.811

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.2273	0.2609	0.4091	0.2273	0.0454	0.0909	0.0454	0.2273
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	13.000	0.2308	0.2791	0.3590	0.2308	0.0256	0.1026	0.0769	0.3333
season	0.60	37	-	141.000	36.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	19.000	19.000	11.000	43.000	0.2553	0.3161	0.3901	0.2553	0.0213	0.1348	0.0780	0.3050

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0300
predicted_AB	3.9220
predicted_AVG	0.2446
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	0.9600
predicted_HBP	0.0330
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.2989
predicted_R	0.5990
predicted_RBI	0.4720
predicted_SLG	0.3888
predicted_SO	1.1130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1780	0.1684	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0300	0.0443	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8110	3.9220	3.8557	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2446	0.2448	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2970	0.2820	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9600	0.9361	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0330	0.0330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1090	0.1036	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2989	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.5990	0.5482	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4720	0.4589	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3890	0.3888	0.3889	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1620	1.1130	1.1423	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	804606
playerID	804606
playerName	Konnor Griffin
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PIT
teamID	22

Brandon Lowe (664040) · BATTER · 2B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 38

All-history rows before 20260516: 38

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2550

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.921	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.921	5.000	-1.921	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.400	0.245	0.100
predicted_BB	0.605	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.605	0.000	1.395	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.316	2.000	-0.316	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.400	0.394	0.350
predicted_R	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.684	2.000	0.316	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.816	3.000	-0.816	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.540	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.570	1.600	-0.070	-1.100
predicted_SO	1.026	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.026	2.000	-1.026	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.921	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.605	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.684	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.540	-
predicted_SO	1.026	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.029	0.003
predicted_AB	3.925	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.606	0.001
predicted_H	0.847	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.282	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.000
predicted_R	0.677	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.728	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.540	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.051	0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.925	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.611	0.005
predicted_H	0.859	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.289	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.017
predicted_R	0.693	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.745	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.508	-0.032
predicted_SO	1.043	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.074

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.921

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.1429	0.2500	0.4286	0.1429	0.0952	0.1905	0.1429	0.3810
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	10.000	9.000	10.000	0.2895	0.4167	0.6842	0.2895	0.1053	0.2895	0.2368	0.2632
season	0.60	38	-	149.000	38.000	9.000	1.000	12.000	31.000	26.000	23.000	39.000	0.2550	0.3563	0.5705	0.2550	0.0805	0.2081	0.1544	0.2617

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0330
predicted_AB	3.9300
predicted_AVG	0.2401
predicted_BB	0.6080
predicted_H	0.9440
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.3150
predicted_OBP	0.3409
predicted_R	0.6660
predicted_RBI	0.8120
predicted_SLG	0.5398
predicted_SO	1.0880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2370	0.1660	0.2081	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0330	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9210	3.9300	3.9247	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2401	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6050	0.6080	0.6062	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9440	0.8467	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.3150	0.2824	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3409	0.3410	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6840	0.6660	0.6767	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.8120	0.7278	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5400	0.5398	0.5399	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0260	1.0880	1.0512	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	664040
playerID	664040
playerName	Brandon Lowe
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Oneil Cruz (665833) · BATTER · CF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.380	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.286	4.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.500	-0.267	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	1.000	-0.071	-1.000
predicted_H	1.210	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.143	2.000	-1.143	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.600	-0.333	-0.600
predicted_R	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.762	2.000	-0.762	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.483	0.500	-0.483	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.571	2.000	-1.571	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.380	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.381	-
predicted_H	1.210	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.833	-
predicted_RBI	0.700	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	1.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.246	0.032
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.295	-0.085
predicted_AVG	0.276	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.019
predicted_H	1.185	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.196	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.000
predicted_R	0.852	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.685	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000
predicted_SO	1.519	-0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.246	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.295	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.004
predicted_BB	0.403	0.003
predicted_H	1.202	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.201	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.342	-0.007
predicted_R	0.872	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.702	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.478	-0.005
predicted_SO	1.508	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.380

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.3333	0.4167	0.6190	0.3333	0.0476	0.1905	0.1429	0.3810
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	5.000	14.000	0.2683	0.3617	0.4146	0.2683	0.0244	0.0976	0.1220	0.3415
season	0.60	42	-	180.000	48.000	9.000	10.000	32.000	35.000	16.000	66.000	0.2667	0.3333	0.4833	0.2667	0.0556	0.1778	0.0889	0.3667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2910
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1740
predicted_AVG	0.2755
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_H	1.1500
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_OBP	0.3490
predicted_R	0.8780
predicted_RBI	0.6640
predicted_SLG	0.4832
predicted_SO	1.4450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.2910	0.2457	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3800	4.1740	4.2952	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2755	0.2758	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3810	0.4260	0.3995	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2100	1.1500	1.1853	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.1910	0.1963	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3490	0.3490	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8330	0.8780	0.8515	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7000	0.6640	0.6852	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4832	0.4831	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5710	1.4450	1.5192	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	665833
playerID	665833
playerName	Oneil Cruz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Jared Triolo (669707) · BATTER · RF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 12

All-history rows before 20260516: 12

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2381

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.333	0.095	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.333	0.196	0.167
predicted_R	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.333	0.048	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.324	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.515	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.254	0.004
predicted_H	0.774	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.056	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.197	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.256	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.324	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.689	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.515	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.256	0.002
predicted_H	0.785	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.056	0.000
predicted_HR	0.043	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.031
predicted_R	0.202	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.263	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.684	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.2500	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.2812	0.2500	0.0625	0.0938	0.2188
season	0.60	12	-	42.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.2857	0.2381	0.0476	0.0714	0.1905

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1410
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5450
predicted_AVG	0.2433
predicted_BB	0.2630
predicted_H	0.8620
predicted_HBP	0.0560
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.3069
predicted_R	0.2560
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.3237
predicted_SO	0.7340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1410	0.1583	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5450	3.5151	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2433	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2630	0.2543	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8620	0.7742	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0560	0.0560	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0417	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3069	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.2560	0.1968	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2890	0.2564	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3240	0.3237	0.3239	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7340	0.6894	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	669707
playerID	669707
playerName	Jared Triolo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Henry Davis (680779) · BATTER · C · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 26

All-history rows before 20260516: 26

System season_avg: 0.1510

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1512

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.308	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.308	3.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.151	0.000	-0.151	0.000
predicted_BB	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.000	-0.005	0.250
predicted_R	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	1.000	0.692	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_SO	0.692	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.308	-
predicted_AVG	0.153	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.264	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.374	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.000
predicted_BB	0.407	0.022
predicted_H	0.463	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000
predicted_R	0.374	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.334	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.264	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.702	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.374	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.139	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.411	0.003
predicted_H	0.470	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.044	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.026
predicted_R	0.383	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.342	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.244	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.696	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.139 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	0.0556	0.2273	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.1111	0.2222	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	0.1176	0.2308	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.1471	0.1471	0.2059
season	0.60	26	-	86.000	13.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	10.000	10.000	18.000	0.1512	0.2551	0.2558	0.1512	0.0233	0.0930	0.1163	0.2093

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0940
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4820
predicted_AVG	0.1531
predicted_BB	0.4440
predicted_H	0.5330
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.2589
predicted_R	0.3550
predicted_RBI	0.3880
predicted_SLG	0.2635
predicted_SO	0.7170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.0940	0.1070	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3080	3.4820	3.3744	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1530	0.1531	0.1530	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.4440	0.4075	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.5330	0.4631	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0950	0.0795	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2589	0.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.3550	0.3736	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3880	0.3336	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2640	0.2635	0.2638	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.7170	0.7015	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.151

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	680779
playerID	680779
playerName	Henry Davis
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PIT
teamID	22

Marcell Ozuna (542303) · BATTER · DH · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 36

All-history rows before 20260516: 36

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1888

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.972	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.972	4.000	0.028	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.250	0.311	0.250
predicted_BB	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	1.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	1.000	0.861	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.400	0.225	0.100
predicted_R	0.389	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	1.000	0.611	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	2.000	1.556	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.322	1.000	0.928	0.250
predicted_SO	1.139	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.139	2.000	-1.139	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.972	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	1.139	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.897	-0.075
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.473	0.056
predicted_H	0.702	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.087	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.413	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.418	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.117	-0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.897	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.477	0.004
predicted_H	0.712	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.087	0.000
predicted_HR	0.164	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.031
predicted_R	0.423	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.428	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.004
predicted_SO	1.109	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.385)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.972

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.1176	0.3478	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.2941	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	10.000	0.1944	0.3409	0.3889	0.1944	0.0556	0.0833	0.1944	0.2778
season	0.60	36	-	143.000	27.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	14.000	15.000	41.000	0.1888	0.2750	0.3217	0.1888	0.0350	0.1119	0.1049	0.2867

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7860
predicted_AVG	0.1864
predicted_BB	0.5570
predicted_H	0.7060
predicted_HBP	0.0870
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_OBP	0.3031
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.4160
predicted_SLG	0.3398
predicted_SO	1.0850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0990	0.1062	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9720	3.7860	3.8969	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1864	0.1862	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.5570	0.4735	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7060	0.7024	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0870	0.0870	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1590	0.1596	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3031	0.3030	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.4480	0.4128	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4160	0.4184	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3398	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1390	1.0850	1.1172	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	542303
playerID	542303
playerName	Marcell Ozuna
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PIT
teamID	22

Ryan O'Hearn (656811) · BATTER · 1B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2930

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2930

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	4.000	0.171	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_BB	0.463	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.463	1.000	-0.463	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.122	0.000	-1.122	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.200	-0.369	-0.200
predicted_R	0.659	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.659	1.000	-0.659	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.707	0.000	-0.707	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.465	0.000	-0.465	0.000
predicted_SO	0.829	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.829	1.000	-0.829	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.829	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.463	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.465	-
predicted_SO	0.829	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.879	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.425	-0.038
predicted_H	0.981	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.190	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.686	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.574	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.000
predicted_SO	0.835	0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.879	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.428	0.003
predicted_H	0.995	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.195	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.331	-0.003
predicted_R	0.703	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.587	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.446	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.828	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.829

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	0.2727	0.3043	0.5909	0.2727	0.0909	0.1364	0.0454	0.1818
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	9.000	0.2250	0.2791	0.4000	0.2250	0.0500	0.1250	0.0750	0.2250
season	0.60	41	-	157.000	46.000	6.000	7.000	29.000	27.000	19.000	34.000	0.2930	0.3687	0.4650	0.2930	0.0446	0.1847	0.1210	0.2166

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9520
predicted_AVG	0.2708
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_H	1.0700
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.2040
predicted_OBP	0.3332
predicted_R	0.7260
predicted_RBI	0.6220
predicted_SLG	0.4653
predicted_SO	0.8430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.1520	0.1484	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8290	3.9520	3.8792	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2708	0.2709	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4630	0.3700	0.4251	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.0700	0.9812	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2040	0.1898	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3332	0.3331	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.7260	0.6863	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.6220	0.5735	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4650	0.4653	0.4651	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8290	0.8430	0.8347	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-1B
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	656811
playerID	656811
playerName	Ryan O'Hearn
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Nick Gonzales (693304) · BATTER · 3B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 36

All-history rows before 20260516: 36

System season_avg: 0.3190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3191

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.917	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.917	3.000	0.083	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.319	0.000	-0.069	0.250
predicted_BB	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	1.000	-0.306	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.250	0.000	-0.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.381	0.250	-0.131	0.000
predicted_R	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.472	1.000	-0.472	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.369	0.000	-0.119	0.250
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.917	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.387	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.385	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.914	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000
predicted_BB	0.357	0.051
predicted_H	1.103	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.064	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	-0.000
predicted_R	0.484	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.437	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.000
predicted_SO	0.724	-0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.914	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.359	0.003
predicted_H	1.119	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.064	0.000
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.346	-0.041
predicted_R	0.495	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.355	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.718	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.286 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.917

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.3500	0.4583	0.4500	0.3500	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	12.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	0.3077	0.4130	0.3590	0.3077	0.1026	0.1538	0.1538
season	0.60	36	-	141.000	45.000	7.000	19.000	17.000	11.000	27.000	0.3191	0.3806	0.3688	0.3191	0.1348	0.0780	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2270
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9090
predicted_AVG	0.3102
predicted_BB	0.4320
predicted_H	1.2120
predicted_HBP	0.0640
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.3868
predicted_R	0.5010
predicted_RBI	0.4760
predicted_SLG	0.3849
predicted_SO	0.6850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2270	0.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9170	3.9090	3.9138	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3102	0.3101	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.4320	0.3567	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.2120	1.1033	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0640	0.0640	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3870	0.3868	0.3869	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.5010	0.4837	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4760	0.4366	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3850	0.3849	0.3850	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.6850	0.7238	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.319

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	693304
playerID	693304
playerName	Nick Gonzales
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Bubba Chandler (696149) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 8

All-history rows before 20260516: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	3.375	1.000	-0.375	2.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	2.500	2.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	3.750	5.000	4.250	3.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.787	5.000	0.213	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	4.250	3.000	-1.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.000	14.000	20.000	15.000	20.000	4.000	5.0400	1.4000	0.5600	0.8000	0.6000	0.8000	0.1600
last_10	0.35	8	39.000	20.000	30.000	27.000	34.000	6.000	4.6154	1.4615	0.5128	0.7692	0.6923	0.8718	0.1538
season	0.20	8	39.000	20.000	30.000	27.000	34.000	6.000	4.6154	1.4615	0.5128	0.7692	0.6923	0.8718	0.1538

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.6690
predicted_ER	2.5740
predicted_ERA	4.6333
predicted_H	4.2360
predicted_HR	0.7350
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.3710
predicted_WHIP	1.3810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.6690	2.8386	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.5740	3.3048	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6333	4.6333	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	4.2360	6.1650	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	3.0000	0.7350	1.8958	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.3710	3.6684	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3810	1.3810	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	8
R	4
ER	4
BB	3
SO	3
HR	3
BF	26
Pitches	111

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.62
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	77
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	53
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	696149
playerID	696149
playerName	Bubba Chandler
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Dennis Santana (642701) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.450	2.000	-0.450	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.900	4.000	-0.900	-4.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.870	0.000	0.130	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.8571	1.2857	0.4286	1.0714	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	6.000	12.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	5.7857	1.8214	0.6429	1.2857	0.5357	0.4286	0.2143
season	0.20	19	18.100	7.000	14.000	9.000	10.000	2.000	3.4364	1.2545	0.3818	0.7636	0.4909	0.5454	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3810
predicted_ER	0.4780
predicted_ERA	4.3037
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HR	0.1160
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6620
predicted_WHIP	1.3815

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3810	0.1545	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4780	0.1939	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3037	4.3037	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0000	0.4056	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1160	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6620	1.4573	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3815	1.3815	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	642701
playerID	642701
playerName	Dennis Santana
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Gregory Soto (642397) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	2.000	-0.409	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.273	2.000	-0.273	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.455	2.000	0.545	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.973	1.000	0.127	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.182	0.000	0.818	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	5.0625	1.3125	0.5625	0.7500	0.5625	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	5.000	8.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	4.2188	1.0312	0.4688	0.7500	0.2812	0.9375	0.0000
season	0.20	22	22.100	6.000	10.000	9.000	26.000	1.000	2.4179	0.8507	0.2687	0.4478	0.4030	1.1642	0.0448

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4050
predicted_ER	0.4690
predicted_ERA	4.2173
predicted_H	0.8210
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8890
predicted_WHIP	1.2263

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4050	0.1726	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4690	0.1999	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2173	4.2173	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8210	0.9237	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8890	1.5265	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2263	1.2263	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	30
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	642397
playerID	642397
playerName	Gregory Soto
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mason Montgomery (682254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.778	1.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.844	1.100	0.156	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.444	0.000	-1.444	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.5882	0.8824	0.1765	0.5294	0.3529	0.7059	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	1.000	0.8438	0.7500	0.0938	0.4688	0.2812	0.9375	0.0938
season	0.20	18	18.000	6.000	14.000	8.000	26.000	2.000	3.0000	1.2222	0.3333	0.7778	0.4444	1.4444	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3660
predicted_ER	0.3470
predicted_ERA	3.1189
predicted_H	0.7800
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9470
predicted_WHIP	1.1460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3660	0.1478	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3470	0.1401	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1189	3.1189	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7800	0.9112	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1310	0.0529	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9470	0.3823	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1460	1.1460	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	682254
playerID	682254
playerName	Mason Montgomery
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Isaac Mattson (676755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	2.000	-0.474	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.947	3.000	-0.947	-3.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.789	0.100	-0.589	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	2.200	7.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	23.6250	3.0000	2.6250	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	7.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	7.2692	1.3846	0.8077	0.9231	0.4615	0.5769
season	0.20	19	17.100	9.000	18.000	9.000	13.000	4.6731	1.5577	0.5192	1.0385	0.5192	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3490
predicted_ER	0.6790
predicted_ERA	8.2425
predicted_H	0.8790
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6280
predicted_WHIP	1.6566

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3490	0.7397	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6790	0.2715	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.2425	8.2425	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8790	0.3515	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0228	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6280	0.2511	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6566	1.6566	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.67
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	676755
playerID	676755
playerName	Isaac Mattson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

20260516_SD@SEA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 3 SEA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 3 SEA", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SD 4 - 3 SEA", "winner": "SD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SD 4 - 3 SEA", "winner": "SD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SD 4 - 3 SEA	SD	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SD 4 - 3 SEA	SD	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SD	5-5	0.500	3.30	3.50	-2	1L	cold	average
Home SEA	6-4	0.600	4.80	3.40	14	1W	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away SD	25-18	0.581	-3	-0.070	True
Home SEA	22-23	0.489	16	0.356	True
Signal	-	-	0.425	0.287	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-04-17	SEA @ SD	2 - 5	SD	3	blowout
2026-04-16	SEA @ SD	6 - 7	SD	1	close
2026-04-15	SEA @ SD	1 - 4	SD	3	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SD	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target SEA	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SD	34	9	0	0	1	0	9
Player finalized SEA	32	8	3	0	4	1	9
Player model fractional SD	32.42	6.78	3.27	0.78	3.21	2.73	9.04
Player model fractional SEA	30.81	7.28	4.02	1.08	3.90	3.14	8.07
Simulation box SD	35	8	4	1	4	3	5
Simulation box SEA	36	9	3	1	3	3	10

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SD	Starter	Walker Buehler	4.20	2	5	6	3	4.87	1.36	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Adrian Morejon	1.10	0	1	0	0	4.33	1.16	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Jason Adam	1	1	2	2	0	2.92	1.19	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Jeremiah Estrada	1	0	1	0	0	3.37	1.11	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Mason Miller	1	0	1	1	0	2.63	1.22	True
Home SEA	Starter	Logan Gilbert	5.10	2	4	2	2	3.79	1.24	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Andrés Muñoz	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.97	1.29	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Cooper Criswell	1.10	1	0	2	1	3.38	1.12	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Eduard Bazardo	1	1	0	3	0	4.14	1.43	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SD

Jackson Merrill (701538) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2099

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1470

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	0.805	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.060	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.951	4.000	0.049	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.040	0.250
predicted_BB	0.366	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.366	0.000	0.634	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	0.000	0.171	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.270	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.000	0.119	0.400
predicted_R	0.537	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.537	0.000	0.463	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.167	0.500
predicted_SO	1.146	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.146	3.000	-0.146	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.060	-
predicted_AVG	0.187	-
predicted_BB	0.366	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.270	-
predicted_R	0.537	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.294	-
predicted_SO	1.146	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.992	-0.068
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.000
predicted_BB	0.387	0.021
predicted_H	0.747	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.088	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.270	0.000
predicted_R	0.479	-0.058
predicted_RBI	0.353	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.000
predicted_SO	1.200	0.054

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.992	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.387	-0.001
predicted_H	0.741	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.013
predicted_R	0.474	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.349	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.002
predicted_SO	1.202	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.060

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	9.000	0.0526	0.1818	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.0000	0.1579	0.4737
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	15.000	0.2051	0.2955	0.3333	0.2051	0.0256	0.0769	0.1282	0.3846
season	0.60	41	-	162.000	34.000	8.000	4.000	18.000	22.000	15.000	47.000	0.2099	0.2809	0.3333	0.2099	0.0247	0.1111	0.0926	0.2901

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8940
predicted_AVG	0.1871
predicted_BB	0.4180
predicted_H	0.7280
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.2699
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.3430
predicted_SLG	0.2941
predicted_SO	1.2790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.1590	0.1803	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0600	3.8940	3.9923	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1870	0.1871	0.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3660	0.4180	0.3872	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.7280	0.7469	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0840	0.0876	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2700	0.2699	0.2700	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5370	0.3950	0.4791	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3430	0.3531	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2940	0.2941	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1460	1.2790	1.2002	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	701538
playerID	701538
playerName	Jackson Merrill
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 33

All-history rows before 20260516: 33

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2301

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.424	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.424	3.000	0.576	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.667	0.020	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	1.000	-0.303	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.788	2.000	0.212	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.750	-0.048	-0.500
predicted_R	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.394	1.000	-0.394	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.667	-0.157	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.788	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.788	1.000	-0.788	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.424	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.394	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.455	-
predicted_SO	0.788	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	-0.038
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.393	-0.031
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.354	0.051
predicted_H	0.907	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	-0.000
predicted_R	0.425	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.433	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.000
predicted_SO	0.753	-0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.393	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.353	-0.001
predicted_H	0.900	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.148	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.335	-0.021
predicted_R	0.420	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.428	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.457	0.002
predicted_SO	0.754	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.4286	0.5556	0.6429	0.4286	0.0714	0.2143	0.2857	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	0.2903	0.3889	0.4839	0.2903	0.0645	0.1290	0.1613	0.1935
season	0.60	33	-	113.000	26.000	8.000	4.000	12.000	13.000	10.000	26.000	0.2301	0.2984	0.4071	0.2301	0.0354	0.1062	0.0885	0.2301

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3440
predicted_AVG	0.2744
predicted_BB	0.4320
predicted_H	0.9180
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_OBP	0.3557
predicted_R	0.4720
predicted_RBI	0.4370
predicted_SLG	0.4550
predicted_SO	0.6990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.1450	0.2039	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4240	3.3440	3.3926	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2744	0.2742	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.4320	0.3537	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9180	0.9071	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1510	0.1504	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3557	0.3559	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3940	0.4720	0.4247	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4370	0.4328	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4550	0.4550	0.4550	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7880	0.6990	0.7530	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2375

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.810	4.000	1.190	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	0.000	-0.905	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.000	-0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.265	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_SO	1.071	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.071	0.000	-0.071	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.265	-
predicted_SO	1.071	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.113	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.801	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.430	0.001
predicted_H	0.820	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.350	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.271	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.265	0.000
predicted_SO	1.042	-0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.113	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.801	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.430	-0.001
predicted_H	0.814	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.003
predicted_R	0.346	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.268	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.269	0.004
predicted_SO	1.043	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.1579	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	0.1892	0.2683	0.2162	0.1892	0.0541	0.1081	0.2432
season	0.60	42	-	160.000	38.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	15.000	18.000	45.000	0.2375	0.3132	0.2812	0.2375	0.0875	0.1125	0.2812

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1040
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7870
predicted_AVG	0.2164
predicted_BB	0.4320
predicted_H	0.8200
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.2974
predicted_R	0.3390
predicted_RBI	0.2720
predicted_SLG	0.2649
predicted_SO	0.9990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1190	0.1040	0.1129	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.7870	3.8006	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2164	0.2162	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.4320	0.4302	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8200	0.8200	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0188	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2974	0.2972	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3390	0.3496	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2720	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2650	0.2649	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0710	0.9990	1.0416	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Rodolfo Durán (660710) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 3

All-history rows before 20260516: 3

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2439

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.667	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.667	2.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.311	1.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	1.250	1.250
predicted_SO	1.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	2.000	-0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.193	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.241	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.311	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.863	0.196
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.478	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.067	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.000
predicted_R	0.080	0.080
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.000
predicted_SO	1.262	-0.071

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.863	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.046	-0.000
predicted_H	0.474	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.066	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.179	-0.062
predicted_R	0.079	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.238	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.246	-0.065
predicted_SO	1.263	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	8.000	4.000	0.5000
last_10	0.20	3	-	8.000	4.000	0.5000
season	0.60	3	-	8.000	4.000	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1330
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.5600
predicted_AVG	0.1925
predicted_BB	0.2090
predicted_H	0.6850
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.2409
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.3490
predicted_SLG	0.3113
predicted_SO	1.0070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1330	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6670	3.5600	2.8626	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1930	0.1925	0.1929	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2090	0.0458	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.6850	0.4781	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0900	0.0666	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2410	0.2409	0.2410	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3630	0.0795	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.3490	0.2405	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3110	0.3113	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.0070	1.2616	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	660710
playerID	660710
playerName	Rodolfo Durán
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SD
teamID	23

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.1850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1854

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.595	4.000	0.405	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.162	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.185	0.000	0.065	0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.227	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.000	0.120	0.400
predicted_R	0.524	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.331	0.000	-0.081	0.250
predicted_SO	0.929	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.929	1.000	-0.929	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.595	-
predicted_AVG	0.162	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.227	-
predicted_R	0.524	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.272	-
predicted_SO	0.929	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.636	0.041
predicted_AVG	0.162	0.000
predicted_BB	0.434	-0.066
predicted_H	0.582	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.227	0.000
predicted_R	0.471	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.376	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.000
predicted_SO	0.941	0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.159	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.433	-0.001
predicted_H	0.577	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.021
predicted_R	0.466	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.371	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.268	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.942	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.154)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.0789	0.1220	0.1579	0.0790	0.0263	0.0526	0.0526	0.2895
season	0.60	42	-	151.000	28.000	4.000	6.000	20.000	22.000	21.000	39.000	0.1854	0.2800	0.3311	0.1854	0.0397	0.1325	0.1391	0.2583

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0760
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6950
predicted_AVG	0.1621
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_H	0.5990
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.2269
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.3840
predicted_SLG	0.2722
predicted_SO	0.9590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.0760	0.0873	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5950	3.6950	3.6357	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1620	0.1621	0.1620	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3370	0.4336	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.5990	0.5818	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1090	0.1037	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2270	0.2269	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5240	0.3950	0.4715	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3840	0.3757	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2720	0.2722	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9290	0.9590	0.9412	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.185

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Nick Castellanos (592206) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2051

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	1.000	-0.227	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.545	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.545	4.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.500	-0.205	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.182	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.727	2.000	-0.727	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.241	0.500	0.009	-0.250
predicted_R	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.227	1.000	-0.227	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.591	0.000	-0.591	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.750	-0.308	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.045	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.045	1.000	-1.045	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.267	-
predicted_R	0.227	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	1.045	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.576	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.177	-0.005
predicted_H	0.741	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.000
predicted_R	0.261	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	1.076	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.576	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.177	-0.000
predicted_H	0.735	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.056	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.243	-0.024
predicted_R	0.258	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.494	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.314	-0.033
predicted_SO	1.078	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	9.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.4737
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	12.000	0.2647	0.2778	0.4118	0.2647	0.0294	0.2353	0.0294	0.3529
season	0.60	22	-	78.000	16.000	5.000	1.000	13.000	5.000	4.000	23.000	0.2051	0.2410	0.3077	0.2051	0.0128	0.1667	0.0513	0.2949

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2070
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6290
predicted_AVG	0.2327
predicted_BB	0.1690
predicted_H	0.8440
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2667
predicted_R	0.3180
predicted_RBI	0.5680
predicted_SLG	0.3472
predicted_SO	1.1290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.2070	0.2196	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5450	3.6290	3.5763	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2327	0.2329	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.1690	0.1772	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8440	0.7411	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0670	0.0563	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2670	0.2667	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2270	0.3180	0.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5680	0.5002	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3472	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0450	1.1290	1.0763	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	592206
playerID	592206
playerName	Nick Castellanos
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Xander Bogaerts (593428) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2581

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.690	4.000	-0.690	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.500	0.075	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.952	2.000	0.048	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.500	0.169	0.000
predicted_R	0.452	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.500	-0.060	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.405	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.373	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.684	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.369	-0.036
predicted_H	0.871	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.461	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.354	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.000
predicted_SO	0.675	0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.684	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.368	-0.001
predicted_H	0.864	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.009
predicted_R	0.456	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.350	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.676	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.3333	0.2778	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.0833	0.0556	0.1944
season	0.60	42	-	155.000	40.000	3.000	6.000	21.000	19.000	17.000	28.000	0.2581	0.3314	0.3935	0.2581	0.0387	0.1355	0.1097	0.1807

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6760
predicted_AVG	0.2532
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_H	0.9310
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_OBP	0.3132
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.3740
predicted_SLG	0.3731
predicted_SO	0.6880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.1140	0.0885	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.6760	3.6843	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2532	0.2531	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4050	0.3160	0.3688	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9310	0.8711	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1080	0.1033	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3132	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.4750	0.4614	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3740	0.3538	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3730	0.3731	0.3730	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6880	0.6755	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	593428
playerID	593428
playerName	Xander Bogaerts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Ramón Laureano (657656) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 37

All-history rows before 20260516: 37

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2286

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.054	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	0.946	1.000
predicted_AB	3.784	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.784	4.000	0.216	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.500	0.021	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.865	2.000	0.135	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.500	-0.058	-0.250
predicted_R	0.459	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.459	0.000	0.541	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	0.486	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.393	0.500	0.357	0.250
predicted_SO	1.297	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.297	1.000	-0.297	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	3.784	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	1.297	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.043	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.699	-0.085
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	0.003
predicted_H	0.712	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.000
predicted_R	0.415	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.314	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.000
predicted_SO	1.290	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.699	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.435	-0.001
predicted_H	0.707	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.093	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.025
predicted_R	0.410	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.310	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.316	-0.020
predicted_SO	1.292	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.4375
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	14.000	0.1613	0.2973	0.2581	0.1613	0.0323	0.0323	0.1935	0.4516
season	0.60	37	-	140.000	32.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	19.000	17.000	16.000	48.000	0.2286	0.3082	0.3929	0.2286	0.0357	0.1357	0.1143	0.3429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0780
predicted_3B	0.0280
predicted_AB	3.5730
predicted_AVG	0.2128
predicted_BB	0.4400
predicted_H	0.7600
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_OBP	0.3008
predicted_R	0.3500
predicted_RBI	0.3350
predicted_SLG	0.3359
predicted_SO	1.2800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.0780	0.0959	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0280	0.0435	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7840	3.5730	3.6988	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2128	0.2129	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.4400	0.4352	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7600	0.7123	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1020	0.0948	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3008	0.3009	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.3500	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3350	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3359	0.3360	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2970	1.2800	1.2901	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	657656
playerID	657656
playerName	Ramón Laureano
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Miguel Andujar (609280) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 31

All-history rows before 20260516: 31

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3017

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.323	1.000	-0.323	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_AB	3.742	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.742	4.000	0.258	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.500	-0.052	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.129	2.000	-0.129	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.500	-0.075	-0.250
predicted_R	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.355	1.000	-0.355	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.419	1.000	-0.419	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.750	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.742	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.742	0.000	-0.742	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.323	-
predicted_3B	0.065	-
predicted_AB	3.742	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.097	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.355	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.493	-
predicted_SO	0.742	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	0.010
predicted_3B	0.059	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.772	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.283	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.100	0.003
predicted_H	0.971	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.107	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.365	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.409	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.493	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.788	0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.772	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.100	-0.000
predicted_H	0.963	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.274	-0.032
predicted_R	0.361	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.405	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.459	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.789	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.6000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	9.000	0.2564	0.2564	0.4872	0.2564	0.0256	0.1026	0.0000	0.2308
season	0.60	31	-	116.000	35.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	13.000	11.000	3.000	23.000	0.3017	0.3250	0.5000	0.3017	0.0259	0.1121	0.0259	0.1983

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3480
predicted_3B	0.0500
predicted_AB	3.8200
predicted_AVG	0.2826
predicted_BB	0.1040
predicted_H	1.0800
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.3061
predicted_R	0.3810
predicted_RBI	0.4550
predicted_SLG	0.4928
predicted_SO	0.8600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3230	0.3480	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0650	0.0500	0.0591	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7420	3.8200	3.7725	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2826	0.2828	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0970	0.1040	0.0997	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0800	0.9705	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1180	0.1070	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3061	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3550	0.3810	0.3652	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4550	0.4094	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4930	0.4928	0.4929	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7420	0.8600	0.7882	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	609280
playerID	609280
playerName	Miguel Andujar
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Walker Buehler (621111) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 8

All-history rows before 20260516: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	0.000	1.500	3.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.625	2.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	4.625	3.000	1.375	3.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.338	6.000	-0.138	-1.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	3.875	2.000	1.125	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.200	14.000	26.000	7.000	20.000	2.000	5.3239	1.3944	0.5916	1.0986	0.2958	0.8451	0.0845
last_10	0.35	8	36.100	21.000	37.000	12.000	31.000	3.000	5.2018	1.3486	0.5780	1.0184	0.3303	0.8532	0.0826
season	0.20	8	36.100	21.000	37.000	12.000	31.000	3.000	5.2018	1.3486	0.5780	1.0184	0.3303	0.8532	0.0826

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5640
predicted_ER	2.5240
predicted_ERA	4.8672
predicted_H	4.7660
predicted_HR	0.4730
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.1500
predicted_WHIP	1.3565

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.5640	2.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.5240	2.2555	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8672	4.8672	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.7660	5.3984	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4730	0.2306	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.1500	4.5856	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3565	1.3565	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	5
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	101

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.20
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	621111
playerID	621111
playerName	Walker Buehler
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	1.000	-0.316	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.158	0.000	-1.158	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.974	1.000	0.126	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.421	1.000	-0.421	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	10.000	1.000	4.5000	0.8333	0.5000	0.6667	0.1667	1.6667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	5.000	7.000	4.000	17.000	2.000	3.9706	0.9706	0.4412	0.6177	0.3529	1.5000	0.1765
season	0.20	19	22.000	13.000	22.000	6.000	27.000	2.000	5.3182	1.2727	0.5909	1.0000	0.2727	1.2273	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4010
predicted_ER	0.6000
predicted_ERA	4.3291
predicted_H	1.0420
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5220
predicted_WHIP	1.1559

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4010	0.1703	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6000	0.2548	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3291	4.3291	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0420	0.4425	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1760	0.0747	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5220	1.2217	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1559	1.1559	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.32
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 15

All-history rows before 20260516: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.267	1.000	-0.267	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.600	1.000	1.400	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.833	0.200	0.167	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.400	1.000	1.600	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0714	0.0000	0.6429	0.4286	0.2143	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	0.9000	0.8000	0.1000	0.5000	0.3000	0.5000	0.1000
season	0.20	15	13.200	2.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	1.3171	0.9512	0.1463	0.6585	0.2927	0.4390	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3720
predicted_ER	0.3250
predicted_ERA	2.9243
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7460
predicted_WHIP	1.1901

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3720	0.1400	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3250	0.7461	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9243	2.9243	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8180	1.5553	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1010	0.6618	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7460	1.5282	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1901	1.1901	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.32
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jeremiah Estrada (669093) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 12

All-history rows before 20260516: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.583	1.000	-0.583	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.100	0.100	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	0.000	-0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	1.5882	0.5294	0.1765	0.3529	0.1765	1.4118	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	0.8182	0.7273	0.0909	0.4546	0.2727	1.0909	0.0909
season	0.20	12	12.200	5.000	7.000	6.000	16.000	1.000	3.5526	1.0263	0.3947	0.5526	0.4737	1.2632	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_ER	0.3740
predicted_ERA	3.3657
predicted_H	0.7680
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0610
predicted_WHIP	1.1112

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3430	0.1266	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3740	0.1380	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3657	3.3657	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7680	0.2834	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1290	0.0476	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0610	1.0225	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1112	1.1112	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.55
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669093
playerID	669093
playerName	Jeremiah Estrada
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.500	2.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.015	1.100	-0.015	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.200	4.000	-1.200	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	4.000	3.000	15.000	0.0000	1.2353	0.0000	0.7059	0.5294	2.6471
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	4.000	19.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	1.7812
season	0.20	20	21.000	2.000	10.000	6.000	44.000	0.8571	0.7619	0.0952	0.4762	0.2857	2.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4020
predicted_ER	0.2930
predicted_ERA	2.6350
predicted_H	0.8190
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.5370
predicted_WHIP	1.2204

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4020	0.1687	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2930	0.1230	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6350	2.6350	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8190	0.9240	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0700	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5370	1.2254	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2204	1.2204	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	34
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Home Team: SEA

J.P. Crawford (641487) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 37

All-history rows before 20260516: 37

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.568	3.000	0.432	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.038	0.250
predicted_BB	0.784	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.784	1.000	0.216	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.757	0.000	0.243	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.250	0.038	0.150
predicted_R	0.595	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.356	0.000	-0.106	0.250
predicted_SO	0.649	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.649	0.000	-0.649	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.680	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.784	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.595	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.386	-
predicted_SO	0.649	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.688	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.737	-0.047
predicted_H	0.830	-0.000
predicted_HBP	0.033	-
predicted_HR	0.152	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.590	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000
predicted_SO	0.630	-0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.688	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.737	0.000
predicted_H	0.827	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.033	0.000
predicted_HR	0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.006
predicted_R	0.587	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.508	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.380	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.630	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	0.2500	0.3478	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.2000	0.1500	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	7.000	6.000	0.2162	0.3409	0.4054	0.2162	0.0541	0.1622	0.1892	0.1622
season	0.60	37	-	132.000	28.000	4.000	5.000	15.000	22.000	29.000	24.000	0.2121	0.3620	0.3561	0.2121	0.0379	0.1136	0.2197	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6990
predicted_AVG	0.2241
predicted_BB	0.6670
predicted_H	0.8290
predicted_HBP	0.0330
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.3472
predicted_R	0.5820
predicted_RBI	0.5110
predicted_SLG	0.3862
predicted_SO	0.6030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.1320	0.1177	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6800	3.6990	3.6877	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2241	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7840	0.6670	0.7367	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8290	0.8296	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0330	0.0330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1540	0.1516	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3472	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5950	0.5820	0.5897	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5110	0.5104	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3860	0.3862	0.3861	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6490	0.6030	0.6304	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	641487
playerID	641487
playerName	J.P. Crawford
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SEA
teamID	25

Jhonny Pereda (640902) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 3

All-history rows before 20260516: 3

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.667	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.667	3.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.863	0.196
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.629	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.067	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.248	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	0.981	-0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.863	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.046	0.000
predicted_H	0.627	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	-0.062
predicted_R	0.358	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.247	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.300	-0.064
predicted_SO	0.981	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.3750
last_10	0.20	3	-	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.3750
season	0.60	3	-	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.3750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1330
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.5600
predicted_AVG	0.2452
predicted_BB	0.2090
predicted_H	0.8730
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.2935
predicted_R	0.4560
predicted_RBI	0.3490
predicted_SLG	0.3640
predicted_SO	0.9130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1330	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6670	3.5600	2.8626	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2452	0.2450	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2090	0.0458	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.8730	0.6286	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0900	0.0666	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2935	0.2931	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4560	0.3599	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.3490	0.2483	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3640	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9130	0.9809	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	640902
playerID	640902
playerName	Jhonny Pereda
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 46

All-history rows before 20260516: 46

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2547

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	1.000	-0.174	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.500	-0.005	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.891	2.000	0.109	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.500	-0.081	-0.250
predicted_R	0.435	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.522	0.000	-0.522	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.373	0.750	-0.123	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.891	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.891	0.000	0.109	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.326	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.435	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.362	-
predicted_SO	0.891	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	0.033
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.510	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.335	0.009
predicted_H	0.766	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.086	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.376	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.475	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	0.849	-0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.510	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.335	0.000
predicted_H	0.764	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.086	0.000
predicted_HR	0.044	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.037
predicted_R	0.374	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.472	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.325	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.849	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3333	0.2222	0.0000	0.1667	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	0.2121	0.3333	0.3333	0.2121	0.0000	0.1515	0.1212	0.2424
season	0.60	46	-	161.000	41.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	24.000	20.000	15.000	41.000	0.2547	0.3315	0.3727	0.2547	0.0186	0.1491	0.0932	0.2547

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2540
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5250
predicted_AVG	0.2403
predicted_BB	0.3470
predicted_H	0.8470
predicted_HBP	0.0860
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.3227
predicted_R	0.2900
predicted_RBI	0.5250
predicted_SLG	0.3623
predicted_SO	0.7890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.2540	0.2067	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5250	3.5102	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2403	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3260	0.3470	0.3346	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8470	0.7660	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0860	0.0860	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0441	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3227	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4350	0.2900	0.3758	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5250	0.4747	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3620	0.3623	0.3621	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8910	0.7890	0.8493	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Luke Raley (670042) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 33

All-history rows before 20260516: 33

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2736

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.212	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.212	1.000	-0.212	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.000	0.060	0.333
predicted_BB	0.212	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.212	0.000	0.788	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.879	0.000	0.121	1.000
predicted_HR	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.500	0.158	0.000
predicted_R	0.515	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.515	0.000	0.485	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.760	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.758	0.000	1.242	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.626	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.585	0.000	0.748	1.333
predicted_SO	1.182	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.182	0.000	0.818	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.212	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.212	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.515	-
predicted_RBI	0.760	-
predicted_SLG	0.626	-
predicted_SO	1.182	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.025	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.201	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.238	0.026
predicted_H	0.867	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.173	-
predicted_HR	0.294	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.375	-0.000
predicted_R	0.571	0.056
predicted_RBI	0.794	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.626	0.000
predicted_SO	1.083	-0.099

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.201	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.238	0.000
predicted_H	0.865	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.173	0.000
predicted_HR	0.294	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	-0.054
predicted_R	0.569	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.790	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.595	-0.031
predicted_SO	1.083	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.092

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.3571	0.5000	0.7857	0.3571	0.1429	0.2857	0.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	27.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	14.000	8.000	3.000	8.000	0.3333	0.4375	0.8889	0.3333	0.1852	0.5185	0.1111	0.2963
season	0.60	33	-	106.000	29.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	25.000	17.000	7.000	39.000	0.2736	0.3419	0.5849	0.2736	0.0849	0.2359	0.0660	0.3679

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.1850
predicted_AVG	0.2903
predicted_BB	0.2780
predicted_H	0.9250
predicted_HBP	0.1730
predicted_HR	0.3160
predicted_OBP	0.3748
predicted_R	0.6590
predicted_RBI	0.8470
predicted_SLG	0.6264
predicted_SO	0.9280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.0880	0.1081	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0170	0.0249	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2120	3.1850	3.2015	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2903	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2120	0.2780	0.2378	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9250	0.8671	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1730	0.1730	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3160	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3748	0.3749	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5150	0.6590	0.5712	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7600	0.8470	0.7940	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6260	0.6264	0.6262	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1820	0.9280	1.0829	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	670042
playerID	670042
playerName	Luke Raley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Leo Rivas (660844) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 30

All-history rows before 20260516: 30

System season_avg: 0.1330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	0.933	1.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.139	0.750	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.133	0.000	0.617	0.750
predicted_BB	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.340	3.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.400	0.000	2.600	3.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.750	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.000	0.481	0.750
predicted_R	0.233	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.233	0.000	0.767	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.211	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.178	0.000	0.822	1.000
predicted_SO	1.067	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.067	1.000	-0.067	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.139	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.340	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.233	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.211	-
predicted_SO	1.067	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	0.020
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.025	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.139	0.000
predicted_BB	0.434	-0.033
predicted_H	0.374	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.126	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	-0.000
predicted_R	0.240	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.143	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.211	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.057	-0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.025	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.123	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.434	0.000
predicted_H	0.373	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.126	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.029
predicted_R	0.239	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.142	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.190	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.057	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.123 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	3.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.0769	0.2000	0.1538	0.0769	0.0000	0.0769	0.3846
last_10	0.20	10	-	27.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	0.0741	0.2424	0.1111	0.0741	0.0000	0.1482	0.4074
season	0.60	30	-	90.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	14.000	32.000	0.1333	0.2685	0.1778	0.1333	0.0556	0.1556	0.3556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1180
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.0640
predicted_AVG	0.1392
predicted_BB	0.3810
predicted_H	0.4270
predicted_HBP	0.1260
predicted_HR	0.0210
predicted_OBP	0.2617
predicted_R	0.2510
predicted_RBI	0.1630
predicted_SLG	0.2107
predicted_SO	1.0410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.1180	0.0867	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0180	0.0272	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0640	3.0247	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1390	0.1392	0.1391	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.3810	0.4338	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3400	0.4270	0.3736	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1260	0.1260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0210	0.0204	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2617	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2330	0.2510	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1630	0.1428	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2110	0.2107	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0670	1.0410	1.0570	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.133

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660844
playerID	660844
playerName	Leo Rivas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 46

All-history rows before 20260516: 46

System season_avg: 0.3050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3054

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.239	0.000	-0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.630	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.630	4.000	-0.630	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.349	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.305	0.500	0.028	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.413	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.413	0.000	0.587	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	1.210	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.109	2.000	-0.109	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.425	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.500	0.108	0.000
predicted_R	0.696	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.696	0.000	0.304	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.348	0.000	0.652	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.512	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.455	0.500	-0.122	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.978	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.978	0.000	1.022	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.630	-
predicted_AVG	0.349	-
predicted_BB	0.413	-
predicted_H	1.210	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.425	-
predicted_R	0.696	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.512	-
predicted_SO	0.978	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	0.005
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.685	0.055
predicted_AVG	0.349	0.000
predicted_BB	0.391	-0.022
predicted_H	1.253	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.157	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.425	0.000
predicted_R	0.726	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.394	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.512	0.000
predicted_SO	0.969	-0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.685	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.339	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.391	0.000
predicted_H	1.249	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.157	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.402	-0.023
predicted_R	0.723	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.393	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.501	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.969	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.339 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.5000	0.5652	0.7500	0.5000	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	16.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	11.000	0.4103	0.4773	0.5385	0.4103	0.0256	0.1026	0.0513	0.2821
season	0.60	46	-	167.000	51.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	16.000	32.000	19.000	45.000	0.3054	0.3918	0.4551	0.3054	0.0239	0.0958	0.1138	0.2695

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2510
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7640
predicted_AVG	0.3490
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_H	1.3140
predicted_HBP	0.1570
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_OBP	0.4250
predicted_R	0.7690
predicted_RBI	0.4150
predicted_SLG	0.5125
predicted_SO	0.9550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2390	0.2510	0.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0140	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6300	3.7640	3.6851	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3490	0.3490	0.3490	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4130	0.3590	0.3908	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2100	1.3140	1.2527	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1570	0.1570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1120	0.1049	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4250	0.4250	0.4250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6960	0.7690	0.7260	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4150	0.3944	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5120	0.5125	0.5122	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9780	0.9550	0.9686	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.305

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2471

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1490

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.953	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.953	4.000	1.047	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.250	-0.247	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.349	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.349	0.000	-0.349	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.977	1.000	-0.977	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.250	-0.310	-0.250
predicted_R	0.279	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.465	0.000	-0.465	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.250	-0.365	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.698	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.698	0.000	0.302	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.953	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.349	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.279	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.362	-
predicted_SO	0.698	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.965	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	0.003
predicted_H	0.981	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.092	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.281	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.355	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.707	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.965	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.352	0.000
predicted_H	0.979	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.092	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.006
predicted_R	0.280	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.353	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.350	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.707	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.953

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.1905	0.2609	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.0000	0.0952	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.3250	0.3864	0.4500	0.3250	0.0250	0.0750	0.1000	0.1500
season	0.60	43	-	170.000	42.000	5.000	5.000	20.000	12.000	15.000	30.000	0.2471	0.3102	0.3647	0.2471	0.0294	0.1177	0.0882	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9830
predicted_AVG	0.2503
predicted_BB	0.3570
predicted_H	0.9970
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.3141
predicted_R	0.2850
predicted_RBI	0.3620
predicted_SLG	0.3617
predicted_SO	0.7210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1160	0.1540	0.1316	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9530	3.9830	3.9653	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2503	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3490	0.3570	0.3523	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.9970	0.9811	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0950	0.0920	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3141	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2790	0.2850	0.2815	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3620	0.3549	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3620	0.3617	0.3619	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6980	0.7210	0.7074	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Dominic Canzone (686527) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 30

All-history rows before 20260516: 30

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2738

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.800	2.000	1.200	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.500	-0.024	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.767	1.000	0.233	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.500	-0.087	-0.250
predicted_R	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.433	0.000	-0.433	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.567	0.000	-0.567	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.463	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.500	-0.250	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.433	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.463	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.879	0.079
predicted_AVG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.268	0.001
predicted_H	0.691	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.121	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.436	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.577	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.463	0.000
predicted_SO	0.710	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.879	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.268	0.000
predicted_H	0.689	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.021
predicted_R	0.434	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.574	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.438	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.710	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3125	0.5000	0.2857	0.0714	0.4286	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.20	10	-	26.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.2692	0.3333	0.4231	0.2692	0.0385	0.2308	0.1154	0.2692
season	0.60	30	-	84.000	23.000	7.000	4.000	17.000	13.000	8.000	21.000	0.2738	0.3368	0.5000	0.2738	0.0476	0.2024	0.0952	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.0090
predicted_AVG	0.2677
predicted_BB	0.2700
predicted_H	0.8060
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.3250
predicted_R	0.4410
predicted_RBI	0.6690
predicted_SLG	0.4630
predicted_SO	0.7270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.1660	0.2076	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	3.0090	2.8794	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2677	0.2679	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.2700	0.2681	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.8060	0.6906	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1390	0.1210	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3250	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4330	0.4410	0.4360	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6690	0.5766	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4630	0.4630	0.4630	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.7270	0.7103	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	686527
playerID	686527
playerName	Dominic Canzone
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 46

All-history rows before 20260516: 46

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2568

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.196	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.196	0.000	0.804	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.978	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.978	3.000	1.022	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.000	-0.057	0.200
predicted_BB	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.348	1.000	-0.348	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.022	0.000	-0.022	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.250	-0.123	-0.050
predicted_R	0.478	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.478	0.000	-0.478	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.421	0.000	-0.021	0.400
predicted_SO	1.043	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.043	1.000	-0.043	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.978	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.348	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.478	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.414	-
predicted_SO	1.043	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.993	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.345	-0.003
predicted_H	0.908	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.000
predicted_R	0.462	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.423	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.414	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.082	0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.993	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.345	0.000
predicted_H	0.905	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.006
predicted_R	0.459	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.421	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.412	-0.002
predicted_SO	1.082	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.978

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.1429	0.2174	0.3333	0.1429	0.0476	0.0952	0.0952	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	9.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	14.000	0.2195	0.2727	0.4878	0.2195	0.0732	0.0976	0.0732	0.3415
season	0.60	46	-	183.000	47.000	9.000	7.000	20.000	22.000	16.000	48.000	0.2568	0.3234	0.4208	0.2568	0.0382	0.1093	0.0874	0.2623

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0150
predicted_AVG	0.2288
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_H	0.9190
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.2938
predicted_R	0.4380
predicted_RBI	0.4280
predicted_SLG	0.4138
predicted_SO	1.1380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1960	0.1950	0.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9780	4.0150	3.9932	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2288	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3480	0.3400	0.3447	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9190	0.9078	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1810	0.1804	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2938	0.2939	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4780	0.4380	0.4615	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4280	0.4233	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4140	0.4138	0.4139	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0430	1.1380	1.0821	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Logan Gilbert (669302) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.111	0.000	0.889	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.333	0.000	-0.333	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	5.333	1.000	-3.333	1.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.478	6.000	-0.378	-0.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	5.778	9.000	-1.778	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.100	10.000	26.000	6.000	27.000	6.000	3.4177	1.2152	0.3797	0.9873	0.2278	1.0253	0.2278
last_10	0.35	9	50.000	21.000	48.000	10.000	52.000	8.000	3.7800	1.1600	0.4200	0.9600	0.2000	1.0400	0.1600
season	0.20	9	50.000	21.000	48.000	10.000	52.000	8.000	3.7800	1.1600	0.4200	0.9600	0.2000	1.0400	0.1600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4920
predicted_ER	2.2780
predicted_ERA	3.7859
predicted_H	5.2160
predicted_HR	0.9530
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.4390
predicted_WHIP	1.2387

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.4920	1.7464	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.2780	2.1388	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7859	3.7859	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	5.2160	3.6052	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9530	0.4757	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.4390	4.7182	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2387	1.2387	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.78
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	669302
playerID	669302
playerName	Logan Gilbert
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	0.194	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.611	3.000	-0.611	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	1.2000	0.2000	1.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	18.000	2.000	2.7000	1.0000	0.3000	0.8000	0.2000	1.8000	0.2000
season	0.20	18	17.000	10.000	16.000	7.000	29.000	3.000	5.2941	1.3529	0.5882	0.9412	0.4118	1.7059	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_ER	0.4410
predicted_ERA	3.9668
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2890
predicted_WHIP	1.2915

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3250	0.1293	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4410	0.1755	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9668	3.9668	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9670	0.9869	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1560	0.0621	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2890	1.1150	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2915	1.2915	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cooper Criswell (681867) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 16

All-history rows before 20260516: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.312	1.000	0.688	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.875	2.000	1.125	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.144	1.000	-0.044	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	1.9286	0.8571	0.2143	0.6429	0.2143	0.6429	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	2.7000	0.8000	0.3000	0.7000	0.1000	0.8000	0.1000
season	0.20	16	19.000	5.000	14.000	4.000	16.000	3.000	2.3684	0.9474	0.2632	0.7368	0.2105	0.8421	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3000
predicted_ER	0.3860
predicted_ERA	3.3759
predicted_H	0.8520
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8870
predicted_WHIP	1.1195

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3000	0.7135	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3860	0.7487	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3759	3.3759	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8520	1.5301	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1050	0.6337	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8870	0.3631	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1195	1.1195	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.37
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	681867
playerID	681867
playerName	Cooper Criswell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.227	0.000	0.773	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.818	1.000	2.182	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.755	0.200	0.245	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.773	0.000	-0.773	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.5000	0.4286	1.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	10.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	2.8929	1.2857	0.3214	1.0714	0.2143	0.8571	0.1071
season	0.20	22	20.100	5.000	18.000	7.000	17.000	1.000	2.2131	1.2295	0.2459	0.8852	0.3443	0.8361	0.0492

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_ER	0.4600
predicted_ERA	4.1361
predicted_H	1.0680
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9530
predicted_WHIP	1.4285

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3610	0.1503	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4600	0.7752	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1361	4.1361	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.0680	2.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1360	0.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9530	0.3968	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4285	1.4285	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.21
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

20260516_SF@OAK

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.537336, "home_win_probability": 0.537336, "away_win_probability": 0.46266399999999996, "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 5 OAK", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 5 OAK", "confidence": 0.537336, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 3 - 5 OAK", "winner": "OAK"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "SF 1 - 7 OAK", "winner": "OAK"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -2, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SF 3 - 5 OAK	OAK	0.537	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SF 1 - 7 OAK	OAK	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SF	5-5	0.500	4.10	5.20	-11	2L	average	weak
Home OAK	5-5	0.500	4.80	3.70	11	1L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away SF	18-26	0.409	-45	-1.023	True
Home OAK	22-21	0.512	-5	-0.116	True
Signal	-	-	0.906	1.060	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SF	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target OAK	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SF	35	9	0	0	0	0	9
Player finalized OAK	34	9	5	0	4	3	8
Player model fractional SF	33.72	7.61	3.15	0.83	3.13	2.06	7.80
Player model fractional OAK	32.65	8.03	4.32	1.27	4.61	4.00	8.00
Simulation box SF	30	3	1	1	1	1	7
Simulation box OAK	31	7	7	3	7	4	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SF	Starter	Trevor McDonald	5	6	4	4	1	3.83	1.24	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Caleb Kilian	1	1	2	2	1	3.38	1.36	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Joel Peguero	1	0	0	0	1	3.76	1.22	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Matt Gage	0.20	0	1	1	1	3.16	1.30	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Keaton Winn	0.10	0	1	0	0	3.27	1.09	True
Home OAK	Starter	Luis Severino	5	1	5	2	1	3.72	1.40	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Joel Kuhnel	1	0	1	1	0	4.07	1.26	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Scott Barlow	1.10	0	1	0	0	2.70	1.01	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Hogan Harris	1.20	0	0	0	0	2.87	1.53	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SF

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2247

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.295	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.295	1.000	-0.295	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.045	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.045	4.000	-2.045	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.500	-0.225	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.159	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.159	0.000	0.841	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	2.000	-0.909	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.500	0.075	-0.167
predicted_R	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.348	0.750	-0.348	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.273	1.000	-0.273	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.295	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.045	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.159	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.341	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.367	-
predicted_SO	1.273	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.032	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.165	0.006
predicted_H	0.996	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.337	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.358	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.367	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.245	-0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.032	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.163	-0.002
predicted_H	0.973	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.028
predicted_R	0.324	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.344	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.347	-0.020
predicted_SO	1.260	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.267)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 4.045

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.4000	0.3500	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	13.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	11.000	0.3171	0.3333	0.3659	0.3171	0.0000	0.1220	0.0244	0.2683
season	0.60	44	-	178.000	40.000	13.000	3.000	11.000	15.000	7.000	56.000	0.2247	0.2581	0.3483	0.2247	0.0169	0.0618	0.0393	0.3146

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0130
predicted_AVG	0.2649
predicted_BB	0.1740
predicted_H	1.0630
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.2988
predicted_R	0.3320
predicted_RBI	0.3850
predicted_SLG	0.3666
predicted_SO	1.2050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2950	0.2460	0.2749	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0450	4.0130	4.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2649	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1590	0.1740	0.1651	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0630	0.9963	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0530	0.0512	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2988	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3410	0.3320	0.3373	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3850	0.3584	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3670	0.3666	0.3668	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2730	1.2050	1.2452	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Jesus Rodriguez (683679) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 7

All-history rows before 20260516: 7

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.429	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	3.000	-0.429
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	-0.857
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.000	-0.308
predicted_R	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	-0.143
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	-0.571
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.000	-0.375
predicted_SO	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	1.000	0.429

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.429	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.335	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.027
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.503	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.170	0.027
predicted_H	0.730	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.105	-
predicted_HR	0.067	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.000
predicted_R	0.182	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.335	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.637	0.066

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.503	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.168	-0.002
predicted_H	0.713	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.105	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.240	-0.064
predicted_R	0.175	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.374	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.269	-0.066
predicted_SO	0.645	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	7	-	24.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3077	0.3750	0.2500	0.0417	0.1667	0.0417	0.1667
season	0.60	7	-	24.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3077	0.3750	0.2500	0.0417	0.1667	0.0417	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0930
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6830
predicted_AVG	0.2375
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	0.8750
predicted_HBP	0.1050
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.3038
predicted_R	0.2770
predicted_RBI	0.4620
predicted_SLG	0.3347
predicted_SO	0.7970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0930	0.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4290	3.6830	3.5035	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2375	0.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.2350	0.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8750	0.7301	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1050	0.1050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0840	0.0670	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3038	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.2770	0.1823	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4620	0.3899	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3350	0.3347	0.3349	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.7970	0.6373	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	683679
playerID	683679
playerName	Jesus Rodriguez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Jung Hoo Lee (808982) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2663

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.970	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.841	5.000	0.159	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.200	-0.266	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.023	1.000	-1.023	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.200	-0.313	-0.200
predicted_R	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.200	-0.391	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.970	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.227	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.409	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.000	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.202	-0.025
predicted_H	1.009	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.414	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.454	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000
predicted_SO	0.510	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.200	-0.002
predicted_H	0.986	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.123	0.000
predicted_HR	0.098	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.020
predicted_R	0.397	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.435	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.385	-0.003
predicted_SO	0.516	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.970

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.2273	0.2917	0.4091	0.2273	0.0454	0.1818	0.0000	0.0909
last_10	0.20	10	-	45.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.2444	0.2766	0.3556	0.2444	0.0222	0.1111	0.0000	0.0889
season	0.60	44	-	169.000	45.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	15.000	18.000	10.000	22.000	0.2663	0.3132	0.3905	0.2663	0.0177	0.0888	0.0592	0.1302

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	4.0440
predicted_AVG	0.2527
predicted_BB	0.1660
predicted_H	1.0220
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_OBP	0.3021
predicted_R	0.4210
predicted_RBI	0.4590
predicted_SLG	0.3882
predicted_SO	0.5250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.2130	0.2213	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9700	4.0440	4.0002	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2527	0.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2270	0.1660	0.2021	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0220	1.0090	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1020	0.1008	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3021	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4090	0.4210	0.4139	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4590	0.4537	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3882	0.3881	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5250	0.5102	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	808982
playerID	808982
playerName	Jung Hoo Lee
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 45

All-history rows before 20260516: 45

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2426

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.756	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.756	3.000	0.244	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.911	0.000	-0.911	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.250	-0.293	-0.250
predicted_R	0.356	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.356	0.000	-0.356	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.464	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_SO	1.244	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.244	1.000	-0.244	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.756	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.356	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.464	-
predicted_SO	1.244	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.736	-0.020
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.319	0.030
predicted_H	0.995	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.161	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.406	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.398	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.464	0.000
predicted_SO	1.238	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.736	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.316	-0.004
predicted_H	0.972	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.157	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.019
predicted_R	0.390	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.382	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.442	-0.022
predicted_SO	1.252	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=22.0, weight=0.169, BvP AVG=0.136)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.5556	0.3333	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	12.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	13.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.6667	0.3333	0.0833	0.1111	0.1111	0.3611
season	0.60	45	-	169.000	41.000	9.000	5.000	18.000	16.000	13.000	56.000	0.2426	0.2935	0.3846	0.2426	0.0296	0.1065	0.0769	0.3314

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7080
predicted_AVG	0.2740
predicted_BB	0.3630
predicted_H	1.0160
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1620
predicted_OBP	0.3367
predicted_R	0.4790
predicted_RBI	0.4100
predicted_SLG	0.4639
predicted_SO	1.2290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2150	0.2061	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7560	3.7080	3.7364	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2740	0.2740	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.3630	0.3193	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0160	0.9947	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1620	0.1608	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3367	0.3369	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3560	0.4790	0.4063	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4100	0.3982	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4640	0.4639	0.4640	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2440	1.2290	1.2379	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Drew Gilbert (687551) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 21

All-history rows before 20260516: 21

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2273

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	2.000	-0.143	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.439	0.667
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	0.000	1.286	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	0.905	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.667	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.333	0.365	0.333
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.296	1.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	1.333	1.667
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.048	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	0.013
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.219	0.076
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.310	0.024
predicted_H	0.585	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.074	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.000
predicted_R	0.340	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.690	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.219	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.306	-0.004
predicted_H	0.571	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.074	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.046
predicted_R	0.326	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.297	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.257	-0.040
predicted_SO	0.698	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.0625	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.1875	0.2973	0.2188	0.1875	0.0000	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875
season	0.60	21	-	66.000	15.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	14.000	0.2273	0.3014	0.3333	0.2273	0.0303	0.1061	0.0909	0.2121

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0830
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3500
predicted_AVG	0.2031
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_H	0.6800
predicted_HBP	0.0740
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_OBP	0.2946
predicted_R	0.3520
predicted_RBI	0.3610
predicted_SLG	0.2965
predicted_SO	0.7290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0480	0.0830	0.0608	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.3500	3.2185	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2031	0.2030	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3510	0.3097	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6800	0.5847	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0740	0.0740	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0740	0.0651	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2946	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3520	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3610	0.3095	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2960	0.2965	0.2962	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7290	0.6896	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	687551
playerID	687551
playerName	Drew Gilbert
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Luis Arraez (650333) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.3170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3174

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.5320

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	1.000	-0.190	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.980	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.976	5.000	0.024	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.315	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.317	0.800	-0.067	-0.550
predicted_BB	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.262	4.000	-0.262	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.024	1.000	-0.024	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.800	-0.102	-0.550
predicted_R	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	1.000	-0.405	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.407	1.600	-0.157	-1.350
predicted_SO	0.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.980	-
predicted_AVG	0.315	-
predicted_BB	0.238	-
predicted_H	1.250	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.439	-
predicted_SO	0.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.008
predicted_3B	0.039	-0.009
predicted_AB	4.006	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.315	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.263	0.025
predicted_H	1.259	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	-0.000
predicted_R	0.417	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.353	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.439	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.195	0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.000
predicted_3B	0.039	0.000
predicted_AB	4.006	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.307	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.260	-0.003
predicted_H	1.230	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.012
predicted_R	0.400	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.339	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.434	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.197	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.556)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.980

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.3636	0.4167	0.5455	0.3636	0.0454	0.0454	0.0909	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	0.3171	0.3778	0.4634	0.3171	0.0244	0.0976	0.0976	0.0244
season	0.60	42	-	167.000	53.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	15.000	17.000	10.000	7.000	0.3174	0.3520	0.4072	0.3174	0.0060	0.0898	0.0599	0.0419

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0270
predicted_AB	4.0440
predicted_AVG	0.3147
predicted_BB	0.2980
predicted_H	1.2730
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.3608
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.3580
predicted_SLG	0.4387
predicted_SO	0.2350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.2090	0.1978	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0270	0.0394	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9800	4.0440	4.0061	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3150	0.3147	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2380	0.2980	0.2625	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2500	1.2730	1.2594	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0790	0.0796	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3608	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.4350	0.4172	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3580	0.3533	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4390	0.4387	0.4389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1670	0.2350	0.1947	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.317

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.8
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	650333
playerID	650333
playerName	Luis Arraez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Casey Schmitt (669477) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 36

All-history rows before 20260516: 36

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2761

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.722	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.722	4.000	0.278	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.028	0.000	-1.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.000	-0.329	0.000
predicted_R	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.485	0.000	-0.485	0.000
predicted_SO	0.889	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.889	4.000	0.111	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.722	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.023	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.738	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.179	0.012
predicted_H	0.883	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.124	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.000
predicted_R	0.484	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.387	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.000
predicted_SO	0.934	0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.738	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.177	-0.002
predicted_H	0.863	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.124	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.034
predicted_R	0.464	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.371	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.002
predicted_SO	0.945	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	13.000	0.2105	0.2683	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.3421
season	0.60	36	-	134.000	37.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	17.000	6.000	32.000	0.2761	0.3288	0.4851	0.2761	0.0448	0.1343	0.0448	0.2388

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.7610
predicted_AVG	0.2401
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_H	0.9030
predicted_HBP	0.1240
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.2997
predicted_R	0.5020
predicted_RBI	0.3970
predicted_SLG	0.3960
predicted_SO	1.0020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1420	0.1900	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0160	0.0232	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7220	3.7610	3.7376	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2401	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1970	0.1790	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9030	0.8832	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1240	0.1240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1370	0.1328	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.2997	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.5020	0.4840	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3970	0.3868	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3960	0.3960	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	1.0020	0.9342	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	4
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669477
playerID	669477
playerName	Casey Schmitt
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Harrison Bader (664056) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 17

All-history rows before 20260516: 17

System season_avg: 0.1640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1639

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.588	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.588	4.000	-0.588	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.164	0.500	-0.164	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.588	2.000	-0.588	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	1.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.236	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.188	0.500	-0.188	-0.500
predicted_R	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.353	1.000	-0.353	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.294	1.000	-0.294	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.344	1.250	-0.344	-1.250
predicted_SO	1.176	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.176	1.000	0.824	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.588	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.118	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.236	-
predicted_R	0.353	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	1.176	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.623	0.035
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.130	0.012
predicted_H	0.666	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.171	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.236	-0.000
predicted_R	0.373	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.402	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.143	-0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.623	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.128	-0.002
predicted_H	0.650	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.167	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.208	-0.028
predicted_R	0.358	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.299	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.354	-0.048
predicted_SO	1.156	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.6316	0.2632	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	12.000	0.1667	0.1892	0.3611	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.0278	0.3333
season	0.60	17	-	61.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	20.000	0.1639	0.1875	0.3443	0.1639	0.0492	0.0820	0.0328	0.3279

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6860
predicted_AVG	0.2033
predicted_BB	0.1510
predicted_H	0.7490
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1920
predicted_OBP	0.2356
predicted_R	0.4100
predicted_RBI	0.3500
predicted_SLG	0.4017
predicted_SO	1.0840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1450	0.1276	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5880	3.6860	3.6230	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2033	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1180	0.1510	0.1298	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7490	0.6660	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1920	0.1714	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2360	0.2356	0.2359	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3530	0.4100	0.3733	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3500	0.3114	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4017	0.4019	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1760	1.0840	1.1432	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.164

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	664056
playerID	664056
playerName	Harrison Bader
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Chapman (656305) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2182

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.837	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.837	5.000	-0.837	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	-0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.372	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.372	0.000	-0.372	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.837	0.000	-0.837	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.372	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.372	0.000	-0.372	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.297	0.000	-0.297	0.000
predicted_SO	1.070	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.070	2.000	-1.070	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.837	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.372	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.372	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.276	-
predicted_SO	1.070	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.015
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.865	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.000
predicted_BB	0.344	-0.028
predicted_H	0.662	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.078	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.000
predicted_R	0.329	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.303	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.000
predicted_SO	1.115	0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.865	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.340	-0.004
predicted_H	0.647	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.078	0.000
predicted_HR	0.024	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.235	-0.026
predicted_R	0.316	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.291	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.248	-0.028
predicted_SO	1.127	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.095)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.837

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	0.1429	0.2174	0.2381	0.1429	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.4286
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	12.000	0.1026	0.1667	0.1538	0.1026	0.0000	0.0513	0.0513	0.3077
season	0.60	43	-	165.000	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	16.000	16.000	46.000	0.2182	0.2951	0.2970	0.2182	0.0061	0.0848	0.0970	0.2788

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2220
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.9050
predicted_AVG	0.1890
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HBP	0.0780
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2611
predicted_R	0.2670
predicted_RBI	0.3370
predicted_SLG	0.2760
predicted_SO	1.1790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.2220	0.2007	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8370	3.9050	3.8648	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1890	0.1890	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3720	0.3030	0.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7380	0.6623	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0780	0.0780	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0300	0.0241	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2611	0.2610	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3720	0.2670	0.3291	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3370	0.3033	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2760	0.2760	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0700	1.1790	1.1146	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	656305
playerID	656305
playerName	Matt Chapman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Trevor McDonald (686790) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 2

All-history rows before 20260516: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	5.500	9.000	-1.500	-5.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.050	5.100	-1.050	-0.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	6.000	4.000	-2.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	12.100	4.000	11.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	2.9189	1.0541	0.3243	0.8919	0.1622	0.9730	0.1622
last_10	0.35	2	12.100	4.000	11.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	2.9189	1.0541	0.3243	0.8919	0.1622	0.9730	0.1622
season	0.20	2	12.100	4.000	11.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	2.9189	1.0541	0.3243	0.8919	0.1622	0.9730	0.1622

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7580
predicted_ER	2.3530
predicted_ERA	3.8330
predicted_H	5.1110
predicted_HR	0.7660
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.3080
predicted_WHIP	1.2435

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.7580	1.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	6.0000	2.3530	4.7301	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8330	3.8330	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.1110	4.3869	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	3.0000	0.7660	2.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.2000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.3080	3.8037	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2435	1.2435	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	6
ER	6
BB	1
SO	4
HR	3
BF	21
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.92
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	9
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	101
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	686790
playerID	686790
playerName	Trevor McDonald
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.944	1.100	0.056	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.056	1.000	0.944	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	3.3750	1.6875	0.3750	0.7500	0.9375	0.5625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	12.100	2.000	7.000	8.000	9.000	1.000	1.4595	1.2162	0.1622	0.5676	0.6486	0.7297	0.0811
season	0.20	18	19.100	3.000	9.000	12.000	19.000	2.000	1.3966	1.0862	0.1552	0.4655	0.6207	0.9828	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5790
predicted_ER	0.3940
predicted_ERA	3.3773
predicted_H	0.8450
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8900
predicted_WHIP	1.3553

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5790	0.8269	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3940	0.7509	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3773	3.3773	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8450	1.5252	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0567	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8900	1.5437	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3553	1.3553	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Joel Peguero (666711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 5

All-history rows before 20260516: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.880	1.100	0.120	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.3750	0.3750	0.1875
last_10	0.35	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.3750	0.3750	0.1875
season	0.20	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.3750	0.3750	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3800
predicted_ER	0.4180
predicted_ERA	3.7594
predicted_H	0.8400
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8220
predicted_WHIP	1.2197

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3800	0.8131	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4180	0.1260	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7594	3.7594	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8400	0.2532	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1070	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8220	0.2477	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2197	1.2197	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666711
playerID	666711
playerName	Joel Peguero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Gage (657424) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.136	1.000	-0.136	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.500	2.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.100	-0.400	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.591	1.000	0.409	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	2.2500	1.2500	0.2500	0.7500	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.100	1.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	0.000	1.2273	1.3636	0.1364	0.6818	0.6818	0.8182	0.0000
season	0.20	22	18.100	3.000	11.000	11.000	13.000	1.000	1.4727	1.2000	0.1636	0.6000	0.6000	0.7091	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3110
predicted_ER	0.2340
predicted_ERA	3.1606
predicted_H	0.5580
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6160
predicted_WHIP	1.3026

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3110	0.7205	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2340	0.0949	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1606	3.1606	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5580	0.8207	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0530	0.0215	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6160	0.8442	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3026	1.3026	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.47
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	657424
playerID	657424
playerName	Matt Gage
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.916	1.000	-0.816	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	1.000	0.211	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.9286	0.6429	0.2143	0.4286	0.2143	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	1.8000	0.9000	0.2000	0.5000	0.4000	0.4000
season	0.20	19	18.100	5.000	9.000	6.000	15.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.4909	0.3273	0.8182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2130
predicted_ER	0.2230
predicted_ERA	3.2669
predicted_H	0.4540
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4680
predicted_WHIP	1.0868

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2130	0.0864	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2230	0.0905	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2669	3.2669	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4540	0.1842	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4680	1.3786	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0868	1.0868	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Home Team: OAK

Shea Langeliers (669127) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 40

All-history rows before 20260516: 40

System season_avg: 0.3370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3373

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.150	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.150	4.000	-1.150	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.325	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.337	0.250	-0.004	0.083
predicted_BB	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.340	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.400	1.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_HR	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.393	0.250	0.107	0.250
predicted_R	0.775	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.775	1.000	0.225	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.675	0.000	1.325	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.580	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.614	0.250	0.719	1.083
predicted_SO	0.975	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.975	0.000	0.025	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.150	-
predicted_AVG	0.325	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	1.340	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.389	-
predicted_R	0.775	-
predicted_RBI	0.810	-
predicted_SLG	0.580	-
predicted_SO	0.975	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.102	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.325	0.000
predicted_BB	0.373	-0.002
predicted_H	1.329	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.071	-
predicted_HR	0.277	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.000
predicted_R	0.761	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.803	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.580	0.000
predicted_SO	0.943	-0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.102	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.002
predicted_BB	0.376	0.003
predicted_H	1.343	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.384	-0.005
predicted_R	0.777	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.820	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.589	0.009
predicted_SO	0.937	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.324 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.150

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.2632	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	15.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	10.000	4.000	8.000	0.3659	0.4255	0.6829	0.3659	0.0976	0.2927	0.0976	0.1951
season	0.60	40	-	166.000	56.000	10.000	12.000	27.000	31.000	15.000	39.000	0.3373	0.3934	0.6145	0.3373	0.0723	0.1626	0.0904	0.2349

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2050
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0320
predicted_AVG	0.3254
predicted_BB	0.3710
predicted_H	1.3120
predicted_HBP	0.0710
predicted_HR	0.2720
predicted_OBP	0.3892
predicted_R	0.7400
predicted_RBI	0.7940
predicted_SLG	0.5801
predicted_SO	0.8970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2050	0.2316	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1500	4.0320	4.1018	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3250	0.3254	0.3252	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3710	0.3734	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3400	1.3120	1.3286	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0710	0.0710	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.2720	0.2767	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3890	0.3892	0.3891	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7750	0.7400	0.7607	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8100	0.7940	0.8035	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5800	0.5801	0.5800	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9750	0.8970	0.9431	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.337

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669127
playerID	669127
playerName	Shea Langeliers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2756

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.720	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.628	3.000	-0.628	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.333	-0.276	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.930	0.000	0.070	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.186	1.000	-0.186	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.440	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.429	0.500	-0.179	-0.250
predicted_R	0.651	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.651	1.000	0.349	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.010	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.674	3.000	-0.674	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.614	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.494	1.333	-0.494	-1.333
predicted_SO	1.372	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.372	2.000	-1.372	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.720	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.930	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.440	-
predicted_R	0.651	-
predicted_RBI	1.010	-
predicted_SLG	0.614	-
predicted_SO	1.372	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.009
predicted_3B	0.026	0.003
predicted_AB	3.666	-0.054
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.000
predicted_BB	0.849	-0.081
predicted_H	1.123	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.139	-
predicted_HR	0.285	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.440	-0.000
predicted_R	0.689	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.996	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.614	0.000
predicted_SO	1.317	-0.055

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.666	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.004
predicted_BB	0.855	0.006
predicted_H	1.136	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.139	0.000
predicted_HR	0.288	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.440	0.001
predicted_R	0.703	0.015
predicted_RBI	1.017	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.613	-0.001
predicted_SO	1.308	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.077

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	9.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.3750	0.5238	1.0000	0.3750	0.1875	0.5625	0.1875	0.4375
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	9.000	6.000	9.000	0.3784	0.4889	0.7568	0.3784	0.0811	0.3513	0.1622	0.2432
season	0.60	43	-	156.000	43.000	8.000	1.000	8.000	29.000	28.000	40.000	59.000	0.2756	0.4293	0.4936	0.2756	0.0513	0.1859	0.2564	0.3782

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2080
predicted_3B	0.0310
predicted_AB	3.5880
predicted_AVG	0.3065
predicted_BB	0.7330
predicted_H	1.1000
predicted_HBP	0.1390
predicted_HR	0.2780
predicted_OBP	0.4397
predicted_R	0.7430
predicted_RBI	0.9760
predicted_SLG	0.6142
predicted_SO	1.2380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.2080	0.1951	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0310	0.0263	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7200	3.5880	3.6657	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3065	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9300	0.7330	0.8489	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.1000	1.1235	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1390	0.1390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.2780	0.2851	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4400	0.4397	0.4399	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6510	0.7430	0.6889	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0100	0.9760	0.9960	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6140	0.6142	0.6141	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3720	1.2380	1.3169	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jeff McNeil (643446) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 35

All-history rows before 20260516: 35

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2984

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	1.000	-0.257	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.543	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.543	3.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.298	0.667	-0.298	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.057	2.000	-1.057	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.667	-0.110	-0.417
predicted_R	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.343	1.000	-0.343	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.371	1.000	-0.371	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.355	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.395	1.000	-0.395	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.457	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.543	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.314	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.343	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.355	-
predicted_SO	0.457	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.549	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.290	-0.024
predicted_H	0.835	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.050	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.368	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.357	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.355	0.000
predicted_SO	0.509	0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.549	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.292	0.002
predicted_H	0.844	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.050	0.000
predicted_HR	0.032	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.020
predicted_R	0.376	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.364	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.506	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2571	0.2895	0.3143	0.2571	0.0000	0.1714	0.0286	0.2000
season	0.60	35	-	124.000	37.000	9.000	1.000	13.000	12.000	11.000	16.000	0.2984	0.3597	0.3952	0.2984	0.0081	0.1048	0.0887	0.1290

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2250
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5580
predicted_AVG	0.2619
predicted_BB	0.2540
predicted_H	0.9320
predicted_HBP	0.0500
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.3159
predicted_R	0.4060
predicted_RBI	0.3970
predicted_SLG	0.3554
predicted_SO	0.5890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.2250	0.2443	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5430	3.5580	3.5490	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2619	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3140	0.2540	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9320	0.8345	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0500	0.0500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3159	0.3160	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3430	0.4060	0.3681	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3970	0.3567	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3550	0.3554	0.3552	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4570	0.5890	0.5095	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	643446
playerID	643446
playerName	Jeff McNeil
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Henry Bolte (703607) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 3

All-history rows before 20260516: 3

System season_avg: 0.5000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.5000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.500	0.500	-0.167	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.667	2.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.500	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.500	-0.167	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.317	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.424	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.030
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.413	0.080
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.000
predicted_BB	0.325	-0.008
predicted_H	1.001	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.082	0.082
predicted_RBI	0.455	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.000
predicted_SO	0.420	0.087

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.413	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.327	0.002
predicted_H	1.012	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.074	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.358	-0.003
predicted_R	0.084	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.372	-0.052
predicted_SO	0.417	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	10.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.2000	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	3	-	10.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.2000	0.1000	0.1000
season	0.60	3	-	10.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.2000	0.1000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1240
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.6650
predicted_AVG	0.3170
predicted_BB	0.3000
predicted_H	1.1620
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.3608
predicted_R	0.3410
predicted_RBI	0.5340
predicted_SLG	0.4245
predicted_SO	0.6940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1240	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.6650	3.4130	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3170	0.3170	0.3170	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.1620	1.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0840	0.0734	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3608	0.3610	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3410	0.0822	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5340	0.4551	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4240	0.4245	0.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.6940	0.4200	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	703607
playerID	703607
playerName	Henry Bolte
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Darell Hernaiz (687231) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2414

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.053	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.053	2.000	0.947	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.500	0.009	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	1.000	0.263	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	-0.083	-0.250
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.293	0.500	-0.043	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.579	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.579	0.000	1.421	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.053	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	0.579	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.017	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.131	0.078
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.391	-0.030
predicted_H	0.763	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000
predicted_R	0.390	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.274	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.000
predicted_SO	0.627	0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.017	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.131	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.394	0.003
predicted_H	0.772	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.046	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.331	-0.009
predicted_R	0.398	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.297	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.623	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3571	0.4000	0.3571	0.3571	0.0000	0.0714	0.0714	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	10.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.3125	0.3714	0.3125	0.3125	0.0000	0.0938	0.0938	0.2188
season	0.60	19	-	58.000	14.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	8.000	11.000	0.2414	0.3333	0.2931	0.2414	0.0172	0.0862	0.1379	0.1897

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0480
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2710
predicted_AVG	0.2679
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_H	0.8760
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3389
predicted_R	0.4300
predicted_RBI	0.3180
predicted_SLG	0.3362
predicted_SO	0.7130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0480	0.0172	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0530	3.2710	3.1312	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2679	0.2680	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.3370	0.3909	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8760	0.7631	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0560	0.0457	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3389	0.3390	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.4300	0.3902	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3180	0.2744	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3362	0.3361	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5790	0.7130	0.6271	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	687231
playerID	687231
playerName	Darell Hernaiz
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	OAK
teamID	20

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 27

All-history rows before 20260516: 27

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1942

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.815	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.815	4.000	0.185	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.250	0.056	0.000
predicted_BB	0.519	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.519	0.000	-0.519	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.741	1.000	0.259	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.250	-0.036	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.359	0.250	-0.109	0.000
predicted_SO	1.407	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.407	3.000	-0.407	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.815	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.519	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	1.407	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.774	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.532	0.013
predicted_H	0.768	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.315	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.495	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	1.365	-0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.774	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.535	0.003
predicted_H	0.776	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.143	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.007
predicted_R	0.321	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.505	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.018
predicted_SO	1.356	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.815

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.2353	0.4118
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	14.000	0.2500	0.3721	0.4722	0.2500	0.0556	0.1667	0.1944	0.3889
season	0.60	27	-	103.000	20.000	2.000	5.000	18.000	9.000	14.000	38.000	0.1942	0.2857	0.3592	0.1942	0.0485	0.1748	0.1359	0.3689

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7110
predicted_AVG	0.2103
predicted_BB	0.5520
predicted_H	0.7800
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.3110
predicted_R	0.2860
predicted_RBI	0.5020
predicted_SLG	0.3645
predicted_SO	1.2990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0740	0.1380	0.0990	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8150	3.7110	3.7743	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2103	0.2101	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5190	0.5520	0.5319	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.7800	0.7678	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1430	0.1412	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3110	0.3110	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2860	0.3146	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5020	0.4947	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3645	0.3642	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4070	1.2990	1.3648	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 21

All-history rows before 20260516: 21

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2568

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.524	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.524	3.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	0.714	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	0.000	-0.905	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.250	-0.062	0.000
predicted_R	0.619	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.619	1.000	-0.619	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.619	0.000	-0.619	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.495	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_SO	0.905	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.905	1.000	0.095	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.524	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.619	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.495	-
predicted_SO	0.905	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	0.004
predicted_3B	0.045	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.576	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.287	0.002
predicted_H	0.803	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.214	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.000
predicted_R	0.611	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.486	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.495	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.890	-0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.576	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.289	0.002
predicted_H	0.812	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.216	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.285	-0.021
predicted_R	0.623	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.496	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.462	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.884	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.061

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.5263	0.2105	0.1053	0.1053	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	0.2703	0.3415	0.5946	0.2703	0.0811	0.1622	0.1081	0.2703
season	0.60	21	-	74.000	19.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	13.000	6.000	19.000	0.2568	0.3125	0.5135	0.2568	0.0676	0.1757	0.0811	0.2568

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.6640
predicted_AVG	0.2485
predicted_BB	0.2900
predicted_H	0.9110
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.2390
predicted_OBP	0.3056
predicted_R	0.5960
predicted_RBI	0.5480
predicted_SLG	0.4947
predicted_SO	0.8640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.1050	0.0987	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0400	0.0450	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5240	3.6640	3.5758	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2485	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2900	0.2875	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.9110	0.8033	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2390	0.2144	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3056	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6190	0.5960	0.6105	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5480	0.4863	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4950	0.4947	0.4949	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9050	0.8640	0.8898	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Lawrence Butler (671732) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 31

All-history rows before 20260516: 31

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1909

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.548	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.548	3.000	0.452	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.333	0.059	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.548	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.677	1.000	0.323	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	0.903	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.333	-0.049	-0.083
predicted_R	0.484	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.484	1.000	0.516	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.387	0.000	2.613	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.300	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.333	0.700	0.667
predicted_SO	1.032	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.032	1.000	1.968	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.548	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.548	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.484	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.300	-
predicted_SO	1.032	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.535	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.538	-0.010
predicted_H	0.626	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.000
predicted_R	0.495	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.291	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.000
predicted_SO	1.043	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.535	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.542	0.004
predicted_H	0.633	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.077	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.015
predicted_R	0.505	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.297	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.272	-0.028
predicted_SO	1.036	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.4118
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	8.000	10.000	0.1875	0.3500	0.3125	0.1875	0.0312	0.0938	0.2500	0.3125
season	0.60	31	-	110.000	21.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	15.000	17.000	32.000	0.1909	0.2992	0.3000	0.1909	0.0273	0.1091	0.1545	0.2909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0960
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5160
predicted_AVG	0.1981
predicted_BB	0.5230
predicted_H	0.6970
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.3027
predicted_R	0.5110
predicted_RBI	0.3230
predicted_SLG	0.3001
predicted_SO	1.0590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.0960	0.0966	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5480	3.5160	3.5354	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1981	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5480	0.5230	0.5381	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6970	0.6261	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0860	0.0763	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3027	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4840	0.5110	0.4946	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3230	0.2909	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3000	0.3001	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0320	1.0590	1.0426	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	671732
playerID	671732
playerName	Lawrence Butler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Tyler Soderstrom (691016) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.1960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1962

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.317	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.317	1.000	-0.317	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.854	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.854	4.000	0.146	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.196	0.250	0.304	0.250
predicted_BB	0.439	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.756	1.000	1.244	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	0.878	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.277	0.250	0.223	0.250
predicted_R	0.537	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.537	0.000	0.463	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	0.000	0.512	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.350	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.500	0.864	0.750
predicted_SO	0.927	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.927	2.000	-0.927	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.317	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.854	-
predicted_AVG	0.181	-
predicted_BB	0.439	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.242	-
predicted_R	0.537	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	-
predicted_SO	0.927	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.306	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.899	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.000
predicted_BB	0.393	-0.046
predicted_H	0.696	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.113	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.242	-0.000
predicted_R	0.525	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.355	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000
predicted_SO	0.940	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.306	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.899	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.395	0.003
predicted_H	0.704	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.114	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.014
predicted_R	0.536	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.363	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.007
predicted_SO	0.934	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.854

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.0909	0.0909	0.1818	0.0909	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2273
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	0.1750	0.2326	0.3750	0.1750	0.0500	0.0500	0.0750	0.2750
season	0.60	41	-	158.000	31.000	13.000	1.000	5.000	20.000	22.000	18.000	38.000	0.1962	0.2768	0.3861	0.1962	0.0316	0.1266	0.1139	0.2405

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2900
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.9640
predicted_AVG	0.1815
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_H	0.7190
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_OBP	0.2416
predicted_R	0.5070
predicted_RBI	0.3630
predicted_SLG	0.3505
predicted_SO	0.9590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3170	0.2900	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0150	0.0203	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8540	3.9640	3.8988	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1810	0.1815	0.1812	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4390	0.3250	0.3925	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7190	0.6959	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1170	0.1129	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2420	0.2416	0.2418	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5370	0.5070	0.5248	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3630	0.3553	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3500	0.3505	0.3502	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9270	0.9590	0.9400	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.196

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	691016
playerID	691016
playerName	Tyler Soderstrom
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Luis Severino (622663) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	3.222	4.000	-2.222	-3.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.444	2.000	-1.444	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	5.000	6.000	-3.000	-4.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.278	5.100	-0.278	-0.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.222	4.000	-0.222	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.100	10.000	28.000	13.000	23.000	3.000	3.0682	1.3977	0.3409	0.9546	0.4432	0.7841	0.1023
last_10	0.35	9	48.200	22.000	45.000	29.000	47.000	5.000	4.0685	1.5205	0.4521	0.9247	0.5959	0.9657	0.1027
season	0.20	9	48.200	22.000	45.000	29.000	47.000	5.000	4.0685	1.5205	0.4521	0.9247	0.5959	0.9657	0.1027

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.6210
predicted_ER	2.3620
predicted_ERA	3.7185
predicted_H	5.3820
predicted_HR	0.6410
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.0900
predicted_WHIP	1.4000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.6210	1.8091	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.3620	1.1789	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7185	3.7185	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	5.3820	3.6880	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6410	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.0900	5.0449	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4000	1.4000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.07
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	102
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	61
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	622663
playerID	622663
playerName	Luis Severino
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 17

All-history rows before 20260516: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.788	1.000	0.212	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.471	2.000	0.529	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.5000	1.0000	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000	0.7500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	10.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	3.7241	1.4483	0.4138	1.0345	0.4138	0.5172	0.1035
season	0.20	17	16.200	5.000	14.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	2.7000	1.0800	0.3000	0.8400	0.2400	0.4800	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2880
predicted_ER	0.4250
predicted_ERA	4.0670
predicted_H	0.8980
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7710
predicted_WHIP	1.2609

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2880	0.1140	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4250	0.7724	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0670	4.0670	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8980	0.9596	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1330	0.6568	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7710	0.9093	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2609	1.2609	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Scott Barlow (605130) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.450	1.000	-0.450	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.865	1.000	0.235	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	0.000	0.100	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.4286	0.2143	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.2812	0.2812	0.8438	0.0000
season	0.20	19	20.100	3.000	7.000	7.000	18.000	1.000	1.3279	0.6885	0.1475	0.3443	0.3443	0.8852	0.0492

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_ER	0.3010
predicted_ERA	2.7046
predicted_H	0.6800
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9550
predicted_WHIP	1.0084

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3280	0.1366	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3010	0.1253	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7046	2.7046	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6800	0.2831	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0760	0.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9550	0.9813	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0084	1.0084	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	605130
playerID	605130
playerName	Scott Barlow
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 24

All-history rows before 20260516: 24

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.708	0.000	-0.708	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.792	1.000	-0.792	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.683	1.000	0.517	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	1.2000	0.3000	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.100	2.000	11.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	2.4545	2.1818	0.2727	1.5000	0.6818	1.5000	0.1364
season	0.20	24	22.000	6.000	19.000	17.000	24.000	2.000	2.4545	1.6364	0.2727	0.8636	0.7727	1.0909	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3140
predicted_ER	0.2220
predicted_ERA	2.8694
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8180
predicted_WHIP	1.5277

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3140	0.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2220	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8694	2.8694	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7520	0.3193	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0700	0.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8180	0.3474	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5277	1.5277	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

20260516_TEX@HOU

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.590368, "home_win_probability": 0.409632, "away_win_probability": 0.590368, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 2 HOU", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 2 HOU", "confidence": 0.590368, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 2 HOU", "winner": "TEX"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 2 HOU", "winner": "TEX"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	TEX 4 - 2 HOU	TEX	0.590	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	TEX 4 - 2 HOU	TEX	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away TEX	5-5	0.500	3.60	4.10	-5	2W	average	average
Home HOU	3-7	0.300	2.80	5.30	-25	1L	cold	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away TEX	21-22	0.488	0	0	True
Home HOU	17-28	0.378	-48	-1.067	True
Signal	-	-	-1.067	-1.233	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target TEX	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target HOU	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Player finalized TEX	30	9	2	0	1	1	8
Player finalized HOU	33	9	3	0	3	1	9
Player model fractional TEX	30.26	6.83	3.54	0.95	3.37	2.97	7.18
Player model fractional HOU	32.32	7.30	3.66	1.08	3.43	2.72	8.20
Simulation box TEX	33	6	4	1	4	2	8
Simulation box HOU	30	3	2	1	2	2	3

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away TEX	Starter	Jacob deGrom	5.20	2	3	2	2	3.17	1.06	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Jacob Latz	1.10	0	0	0	0	2.33	0.85	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Cole Winn	1	0	0	0	0	4.75	1.55	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Jakob Junis	1	0	0	1	0	3.27	1.12	True
Home HOU	Starter	Kai-Wei Teng	5	1	5	1	0	4.27	1.33	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan King	1.10	0	0	1	0	3.83	1.33	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan Abreu	1	3	1	3	1	4.15	1.47	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Enyel De Los Santos	1	0	1	1	1	3.94	1.12	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	AJ Blubaugh	0.20	0	1	0	0	3.72	1.36	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: TEX

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 40

All-history rows before 20260516: 40

System season_avg: 0.3180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3182

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.325	0.000	-0.325	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.850	4.000	-0.850	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.318	0.000	0.015	0.333
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.225	0.000	-0.225	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.000	0.135	0.500
predicted_R	0.475	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.475	0.000	0.525	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.167	0.333
predicted_SO	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.325	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.475	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.440	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.874	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000
predicted_BB	0.219	-0.031
predicted_H	1.147	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.000
predicted_R	0.513	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.343	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.000
predicted_SO	0.643	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.874	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.001
predicted_BB	0.219	0.001
predicted_H	1.162	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.047	0.000
predicted_HR	0.101	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.002
predicted_R	0.525	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.351	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.454	0.014
predicted_SO	0.641	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.300 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.850

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.3500	0.3000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	7.000	0.2927	0.3095	0.3902	0.2927	0.0244	0.0244	0.0000	0.1707
season	0.60	40	-	154.000	49.000	13.000	5.000	20.000	19.000	10.000	25.000	0.3182	0.3653	0.5000	0.3182	0.0325	0.1299	0.0649	0.1623

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9100
predicted_AVG	0.2995
predicted_BB	0.1730
predicted_H	1.1710
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.3356
predicted_R	0.5680
predicted_RBI	0.3480
predicted_SLG	0.4399
predicted_SO	0.6690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3250	0.2450	0.2926	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8500	3.9100	3.8743	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2995	0.2992	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.1730	0.2188	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.1710	1.1466	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3356	0.3358	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4750	0.5680	0.5127	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3480	0.3432	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4400	0.4399	0.4400	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.6690	0.6428	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.318

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Joc Pederson (592626) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 33

All-history rows before 20260516: 33

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1935

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.900	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.818	2.000	1.182	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.000	0.056	0.250
predicted_BB	0.424	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.424	1.000	-0.424	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.297	0.333	-0.047	-0.083
predicted_R	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.290	0.000	-0.040	0.250
predicted_SO	0.909	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	2.000	0.091	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.191	-
predicted_BB	0.424	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.338	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.965	0.065
predicted_AVG	0.191	0.000
predicted_BB	0.426	0.002
predicted_H	0.571	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.000
predicted_R	0.280	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	0.928	0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.965	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.004
predicted_BB	0.427	0.001
predicted_H	0.578	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.007
predicted_R	0.286	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.284	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.926	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.1333	0.2778	0.4000	0.1333	0.0667	0.0667	0.2000	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	0.1724	0.2571	0.3448	0.1724	0.0345	0.1379	0.1379	0.3103
season	0.60	33	-	93.000	18.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	14.000	30.000	0.1935	0.2973	0.2903	0.1935	0.0215	0.0753	0.1505	0.3226

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.0680
predicted_AVG	0.1914
predicted_BB	0.4300
predicted_H	0.5870
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.2896
predicted_R	0.2900
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.3383
predicted_SO	0.9570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1430	0.1112	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9000	3.0680	2.9651	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1910	0.1914	0.1912	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4240	0.4300	0.4263	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.5870	0.5705	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1010	0.1004	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2896	0.2898	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.2900	0.2796	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2890	0.2774	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3380	0.3383	0.3381	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	0.9570	0.9276	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	592626
playerID	592626
playerName	Joc Pederson
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TEX
teamID	28

Justin Foscue (679822) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 3

All-history rows before 20260516: 3

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.333	-0.222	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.222	0.333	-0.222	-0.333
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.556	0.333	-0.556	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.432	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.138	0.138
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.047	0.047
predicted_H	0.651	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.331	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.432	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.420	0.087

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.138	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.047	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.144	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.222	-0.064
predicted_R	0.368	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.339	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.073
predicted_SO	0.419	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.5556	0.2222	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.20	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.5556	0.2222	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111
season	0.60	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.5556	0.2222	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1310
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.6140
predicted_AVG	0.2389
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	0.8630
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_OBP	0.2860
predicted_R	0.4510
predicted_RBI	0.4380
predicted_SLG	0.4316
predicted_SO	0.7180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1310	0.0295	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.6140	3.1382	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2389	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2070	0.0466	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.8630	0.6514	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1820	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2860	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4510	0.3596	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.4380	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4320	0.4316	0.4319	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.7180	0.4196	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	679822
playerID	679822
playerName	Justin Foscue
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Evan Carter (694497) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 39

All-history rows before 20260516: 39

System season_avg: 0.1840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1840

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1840

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.205	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.205	3.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.184	0.000	0.149	0.333
predicted_BB	0.513	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.513	0.000	0.487	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.590	0.000	0.410	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.000	0.201	0.500
predicted_R	0.436	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.000	-0.011	0.333
predicted_SO	0.821	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.821	0.000	0.179	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.205	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.513	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.436	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.821	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.258	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.194	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.473	-0.040
predicted_H	0.612	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.145	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.000
predicted_R	0.456	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	0.795	-0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.258	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.474	0.001
predicted_H	0.621	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.147	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.010
predicted_R	0.467	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.363	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.793	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.0000	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	6.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.4062	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875	0.1875
season	0.60	39	-	125.000	23.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	17.000	20.000	32.000	0.1840	0.2993	0.3440	0.1840	0.0400	0.1040	0.1600	0.2560

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3370
predicted_AVG	0.1935
predicted_BB	0.4120
predicted_H	0.6460
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_OBP	0.2826
predicted_R	0.4860
predicted_RBI	0.3780
predicted_SLG	0.3643
predicted_SO	0.7550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.1110	0.1212	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2050	3.3370	3.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1935	0.1938	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5130	0.4120	0.4726	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6460	0.6124	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1520	0.1448	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2826	0.2828	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4360	0.4860	0.4560	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3780	0.3612	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3643	0.3641	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8210	0.7550	0.7946	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.184

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	694497
playerID	694497
playerName	Evan Carter
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Brandon Nimmo (607043) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2761

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.881	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.881	3.000	0.119	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.000	-0.026	0.250
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.071	0.000	-0.071	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	0.905	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.250	-0.107	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.367	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.881	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.367	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.061	0.013
predicted_AB	3.858	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.409	-0.020
predicted_H	0.945	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.211	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.367	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.815	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.858	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.003
predicted_BB	0.410	0.001
predicted_H	0.958	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.041	0.000
predicted_HR	0.069	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.002
predicted_R	0.409	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.216	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.004
predicted_SO	0.814	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.881

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	0.1892	0.2857	0.2432	0.1892	0.0000	0.0000	0.1351	0.2162
season	0.60	42	-	163.000	45.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	12.000	18.000	18.000	35.000	0.2761	0.3568	0.4172	0.2761	0.0245	0.0736	0.1104	0.2147

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0790
predicted_AB	3.8240
predicted_AVG	0.2454
predicted_BB	0.3810
predicted_H	0.9380
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.3190
predicted_R	0.3570
predicted_RBI	0.2120
predicted_SLG	0.3666
predicted_SO	0.7900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1100	0.1437	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0790	0.0607	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8810	3.8240	3.8577	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2454	0.2452	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.3810	0.4094	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9380	0.9451	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0660	0.0684	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3190	0.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.3570	0.3995	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2120	0.2108	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3670	0.3666	0.3668	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.7900	0.8154	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	607043
playerID	607043
playerName	Brandon Nimmo
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Danny Jansen (643376) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 26

All-history rows before 20260516: 26

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.269	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.269	4.000	0.731	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.250	0.050	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.654	1.000	0.346	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.250	-0.042	0.000
predicted_R	0.231	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.231	0.000	0.769	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.346	1.000	1.654	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.341	0.250	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SO	1.038	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.038	1.000	-0.038	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.269	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.231	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.326	-
predicted_SO	1.038	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.263	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.306	-0.002
predicted_H	0.586	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.183	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.241	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.000
predicted_SO	0.970	-0.068

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.263	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.307	0.001
predicted_H	0.594	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.183	0.000
predicted_HR	0.074	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.051
predicted_R	0.247	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.317	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.315	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.968	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.1429	0.2941	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0714	0.0714	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.1786	0.3429	0.3571	0.1786	0.0357	0.1071	0.1429	0.2857
season	0.60	26	-	85.000	17.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	6.000	8.000	27.000	0.2000	0.2917	0.3412	0.2000	0.0235	0.1059	0.0941	0.3176

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0380
predicted_AB	3.2520
predicted_AVG	0.1985
predicted_BB	0.3040
predicted_H	0.6450
predicted_HBP	0.1830
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_OBP	0.3031
predicted_R	0.2580
predicted_RBI	0.3420
predicted_SLG	0.3261
predicted_SO	0.8590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1070	0.1361	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0380	0.0380	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2690	3.2520	3.2625	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1985	0.1988	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.3040	0.3065	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6450	0.5861	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1830	0.1830	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0770	0.0727	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3031	0.3030	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2310	0.2580	0.2413	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3420	0.3098	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3260	0.3261	0.3260	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0380	0.8590	0.9699	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	643376
playerID	643376
playerName	Danny Jansen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

Alejandro Osuna (696030) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 14

All-history rows before 20260516: 14

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2286

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.500	2.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.413	0.333	-0.413	-0.333
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.310	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_SO	0.643	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.643	0.000	1.357	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.310	-
predicted_SO	0.643	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.692	0.192
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.470	-0.030
predicted_H	0.576	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.233	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.313	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.344	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.310	0.000
predicted_SO	0.688	0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.692	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.471	0.001
predicted_H	0.583	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.233	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	-0.032
predicted_R	0.321	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.352	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.285	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.686	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2308	0.4118	0.2308	0.2308	0.1538	0.1538	0.3077
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.2414	0.3714	0.2759	0.2414	0.1724	0.1035	0.2759
season	0.60	14	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	0.2286	0.4130	0.2571	0.2286	0.1429	0.2000	0.2571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.0730
predicted_AVG	0.2364
predicted_BB	0.4090
predicted_H	0.7260
predicted_HBP	0.2330
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.3653
predicted_R	0.3670
predicted_RBI	0.4310
predicted_SLG	0.3104
predicted_SO	0.7770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.1020	0.0814	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0013	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.0730	2.6917	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2364	0.2361	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4090	0.4696	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.7260	0.5756	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2330	0.2330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0390	0.0330	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3653	0.3651	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.3670	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.4310	0.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3100	0.3104	0.3101	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6430	0.7770	0.6878	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	696030
playerID	696030
playerName	Alejandro Osuna
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jake Burger (669394) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2201

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	0.878	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.878	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.878	2.000	0.122	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.030	0.250
predicted_BB	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.195	1.000	-0.195	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.854	0.000	0.146	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.260	0.333	-0.010	-0.083
predicted_R	0.341	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.341	0.000	0.659	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.585	0.000	0.415	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.135	0.500
predicted_SO	1.098	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.098	1.000	-1.098	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.878	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.195	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.341	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	1.098	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.787	-0.091
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.226	0.031
predicted_H	0.832	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.156	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.000
predicted_R	0.336	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.686	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	1.010	-0.088

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.787	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.226	0.001
predicted_H	0.843	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.158	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.031
predicted_R	0.344	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.703	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.377	-0.027
predicted_SO	1.008	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.878

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.3333	0.4118	0.5333	0.3333	0.0667	0.4000	0.1333	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2286	0.2895	0.4000	0.2286	0.0571	0.2286	0.0857	0.1714
season	0.60	41	-	159.000	35.000	5.000	6.000	24.000	14.000	8.000	45.000	0.2201	0.2604	0.3648	0.2201	0.0377	0.1509	0.0503	0.2830

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6530
predicted_AVG	0.2444
predicted_BB	0.2710
predicted_H	0.8930
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.2978
predicted_R	0.3290
predicted_RBI	0.7390
predicted_SLG	0.4039
predicted_SO	0.8810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.0850	0.1070	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8780	3.6530	3.7867	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2444	0.2442	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1950	0.2710	0.2258	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8930	0.8318	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1650	0.1561	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2978	0.2979	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3410	0.3290	0.3361	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.7390	0.6861	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.4039	0.4040	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0980	0.8810	1.0099	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669394
playerID	669394
playerName	Jake Burger
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 30

All-history rows before 20260516: 30

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2700

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2700

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	0.667
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.000	-0.270
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	0.000	-0.900
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.000	-0.345
predicted_R	0.533	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.533	0.000	-0.533
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.433	0.000	-0.433
predicted_SLG	0.448	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.450	0.000	-0.450
predicted_SO	0.833	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	3.000	2.167

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.448	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.034	0.001
predicted_AB	3.422	0.089
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.386	-0.014
predicted_H	0.818	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.120	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.448	0.000
predicted_SO	0.925	0.092

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.422	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.387	0.001
predicted_H	0.829	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.121	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.003
predicted_R	0.569	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.441	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.434	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.923	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.4737
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	14.000	0.2703	0.3488	0.5405	0.2703	0.0541	0.1892	0.1351	0.3784
season	0.60	30	-	100.000	27.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	16.000	12.000	25.000	0.2700	0.3451	0.4500	0.2700	0.0300	0.1300	0.1200	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2140
predicted_3B	0.0350
predicted_AB	3.5630
predicted_AVG	0.2552
predicted_BB	0.3640
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.3223
predicted_R	0.5920
predicted_RBI	0.4780
predicted_SLG	0.4481
predicted_SO	1.0700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.2140	0.2256	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0350	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.5630	3.4224	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2552	0.2551	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3640	0.3860	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9090	0.8179	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1350	0.1197	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3223	0.3221	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.5920	0.5559	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4780	0.4303	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4480	0.4481	0.4480	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	1.0700	0.9251	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob deGrom (594798) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 8

All-history rows before 20260516: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.625	0.000	0.375	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	4.125	3.000	-2.125	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.438	7.000	-0.237	-1.800
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	7.125	10.000	-4.125	-7.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	8.000	22.000	4.000	35.000	3.000	2.4828	0.8966	0.2759	0.7586	0.1379	1.2069	0.1035
last_10	0.35	8	44.200	13.000	33.000	8.000	57.000	6.000	2.6194	0.9179	0.2910	0.7388	0.1791	1.2761	0.1343
season	0.20	8	44.200	13.000	33.000	8.000	57.000	6.000	2.6194	0.9179	0.2910	0.7388	0.1791	1.2761	0.1343

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3560
predicted_ER	1.9960
predicted_ERA	3.1695
predicted_H	4.6690
predicted_HR	0.6770
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	6.3690
predicted_WHIP	1.0633

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.3560	1.6860	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.9960	1.9980	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1695	3.1695	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.6690	3.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6770	0.8425	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	6.3690	4.6424	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0633	1.0633	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	3
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.62
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	10
Pitching_Strikes	65
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	594798
playerID	594798
playerName	Jacob deGrom
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 18

All-history rows before 20260516: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	3.000	-0.278	-3.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.444	3.000	-0.444	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.139	0.000	-0.039	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	0.000	-0.944	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.1429	0.5714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2647	0.0000	0.1765	0.0882	0.6177	0.0000
season	0.20	17	21.200	2.000	5.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	0.8308	0.4154	0.0923	0.2308	0.1846	0.7846	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_ER	0.3320
predicted_ERA	2.3324
predicted_H	0.7470
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0300
predicted_WHIP	0.8495

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3400	0.1438	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3320	0.1404	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3324	2.3324	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7470	0.3160	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0398	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0300	0.4357	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8495	0.8495	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Cole Winn (668390) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.795	1.000	0.205	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.100	3.000	-1.100	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	4.1538	2.0769	0.4615	1.8461	0.2308	1.3846	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	7.000	13.000	2.000	12.000	1.000	7.5600	1.8000	0.8400	1.5600	0.2400	1.4400	0.1200
season	0.20	20	18.000	10.000	20.000	7.000	22.000	3.000	5.0000	1.5000	0.5556	1.1111	0.3889	1.2222	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3170
predicted_ER	0.5020
predicted_ERA	4.7478
predicted_H	1.1550
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0740
predicted_WHIP	1.5467

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3170	0.1280	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5020	0.2027	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7478	4.7478	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1550	0.4663	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1020	0.0412	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0740	0.4336	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5467	1.5467	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	668390
playerID	668390
playerName	Cole Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 16

All-history rows before 20260516: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.625	2.000	0.375	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.144	2.200	-0.144	-1.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.562	2.000	-0.562	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	1.3500	0.7500	0.1500	0.6000	0.1500	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	3.0000	1.0000	0.3333	0.5833	0.4167	0.4167
season	0.20	16	19.000	4.000	10.000	5.000	9.000	1.8947	0.7895	0.2105	0.5263	0.2632	0.4737

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_ER	0.4150
predicted_ERA	3.2682
predicted_H	0.8960
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8410
predicted_WHIP	1.1153

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3790	0.1551	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4150	0.1699	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2682	3.2682	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8960	0.9574	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0840	0.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8410	0.3442	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1153	1.1153	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.89
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	22
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Home Team: HOU

Jose Altuve (514888) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 41

All-history rows before 20260516: 41

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2453

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.878	4.000	0.122	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.000	0.255	0.500
predicted_BB	0.463	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.463	0.000	-0.463	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.951	0.000	1.049	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	0.927	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.000	0.172	0.500
predicted_R	0.634	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.634	0.000	0.366	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.268	0.000	0.732	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.339	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.885	1.250
predicted_SO	0.829	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.829	1.000	-0.829	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.463	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.634	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.339	-
predicted_SO	0.829	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.935	-0.065
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	-0.034
predicted_H	0.972	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.034	-
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.600	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.334	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.819	-0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.935	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.426	-0.003
predicted_H	0.948	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.034	0.000
predicted_HR	0.056	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.001
predicted_R	0.574	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.320	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.001
predicted_SO	0.825	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.231)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3182	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.2368	0.2857	0.2895	0.2368	0.0000	0.0790	0.0526	0.2368
season	0.60	41	-	159.000	39.000	10.000	3.000	11.000	26.000	19.000	34.000	0.2453	0.3278	0.3648	0.2453	0.0189	0.0692	0.1195	0.2138

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8400
predicted_AVG	0.2467
predicted_BB	0.3810
predicted_H	0.9470
predicted_HBP	0.0340
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.3157
predicted_R	0.5500
predicted_RBI	0.3260
predicted_SLG	0.3387
predicted_SO	0.8050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.1850	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8400	3.9347	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2467	0.2469	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4630	0.3810	0.4295	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	0.9470	0.9724	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0340	0.0340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0550	0.0580	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3157	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6340	0.5500	0.5997	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3260	0.3343	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3390	0.3387	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8290	0.8050	0.8192	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	514888
playerID	514888
playerName	Jose Altuve
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Dezenzo (701305) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 5

All-history rows before 20260516: 5

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	3.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.250	-0.278	-0.250
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	1.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	2.000	-0.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.434	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.366	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.300	0.100
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.382	-0.018
predicted_H	0.652	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.415	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.368	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.000
predicted_SO	1.148	-0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.366	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.300	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.380	-0.003
predicted_H	0.636	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.126	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.019
predicted_R	0.397	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.352	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.419	-0.015
predicted_SO	1.156	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.5000	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.5000	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250	0.3750
season	0.60	5	-	16.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.5000	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250	0.3750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2730
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.5740
predicted_AVG	0.2227
predicted_BB	0.3340
predicted_H	0.7960
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.2949
predicted_R	0.4560
predicted_RBI	0.4450
predicted_SLG	0.4340
predicted_SO	1.0050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.2730	0.3661	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.5740	3.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2227	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3340	0.3824	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7960	0.6524	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1550	0.1294	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2949	0.2950	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4560	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4450	0.3681	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4340	0.4340	0.4340	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.0050	1.1479	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	701305
playerID	701305
playerName	Zach Dezenzo
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 46

All-history rows before 20260516: 46

System season_avg: 0.3210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3214

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.239	0.000	-0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.652	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.652	3.000	0.348	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.321	0.333	-0.321	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.630	1.000	-0.630	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.174	1.000	-1.174	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.421	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.431	0.500	-0.431	-0.500
predicted_R	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.630	0.000	-0.630	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.652	0.000	-0.652	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.576	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.637	0.333	-0.637	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.674	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.674	0.000	0.326	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.652	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.630	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.421	-
predicted_R	0.630	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.576	-
predicted_SO	0.674	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.230	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.617	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000
predicted_BB	0.646	0.016
predicted_H	1.100	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.242	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.421	0.000
predicted_R	0.581	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.481	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.576	0.000
predicted_SO	0.749	0.075

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.230	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.617	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.642	-0.005
predicted_H	1.073	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.048	0.000
predicted_HR	0.235	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.403	-0.018
predicted_R	0.556	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.461	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.556	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.754	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.294 HR/AB=0.064

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.3529	0.5000	0.5882	0.3529	0.0588	0.0588	0.2941	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	12.000	0.2727	0.4000	0.5152	0.2727	0.0606	0.0909	0.2121	0.3636
season	0.60	46	-	168.000	54.000	11.000	14.000	30.000	29.000	29.000	31.000	0.3214	0.4307	0.6369	0.3214	0.0833	0.1786	0.1726	0.1845

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2180
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5660
predicted_AVG	0.3084
predicted_BB	0.6700
predicted_H	1.1000
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.2440
predicted_OBP	0.4212
predicted_R	0.5110
predicted_RBI	0.4830
predicted_SLG	0.5759
predicted_SO	0.8560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2390	0.2180	0.2303	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6520	3.5660	3.6166	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3084	0.3082	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6300	0.6700	0.6465	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2440	0.2416	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4210	0.4212	0.4211	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6300	0.5110	0.5810	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4830	0.4812	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5760	0.5759	0.5760	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6740	0.8560	0.7490	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.321

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Cole (805904) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 9

All-history rows before 20260516: 9

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_R	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	1.444	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.444	1.000	-1.444	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.111	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	1.444	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.426	0.093
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.041	0.041
predicted_H	0.639	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.099	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.000
predicted_R	0.156	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.298	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	1.391	-0.053

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.426	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.040	-0.000
predicted_H	0.623	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.099	0.000
predicted_HR	0.066	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.191	-0.069
predicted_R	0.149	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.285	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.273	-0.043
predicted_SO	1.401	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	9.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.5000
last_10	0.20	9	-	30.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	13.000	0.2000	0.2258	0.3333	0.2000	0.0333	0.1000	0.4333
season	0.60	9	-	30.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	13.000	0.2000	0.2258	0.3333	0.2000	0.0333	0.1000	0.4333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6370
predicted_AVG	0.2122
predicted_BB	0.1330
predicted_H	0.7720
predicted_HBP	0.0990
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.2605
predicted_R	0.2580
predicted_RBI	0.3610
predicted_SLG	0.3163
predicted_SO	1.2720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1120	0.1113	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.6370	3.4261	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2122	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1330	0.0407	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7720	0.6388	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0990	0.0990	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0850	0.0677	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2605	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1110	0.2580	0.1560	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3610	0.2979	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3163	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4440	1.2720	1.3913	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	805904
playerID	805904
playerName	Zach Cole
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 45

All-history rows before 20260516: 45

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.378	1.000	-0.378	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.978	0.000	-0.978	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.250	-0.341	-0.250
predicted_R	0.578	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.578	0.000	-0.578	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.644	0.000	-0.644	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.431	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.509	0.000	-0.509	0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.378	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.578	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.431	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.651	-0.016
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.384	0.006
predicted_H	0.751	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.195	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.547	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.507	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.431	0.000
predicted_SO	0.841	0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.651	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.381	-0.003
predicted_H	0.732	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.189	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.016
predicted_R	0.524	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.485	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.414	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.847	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.056)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.3529	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.1111	0.1795	0.3056	0.1111	0.0556	0.0833	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.60	45	-	165.000	44.000	10.000	10.000	29.000	26.000	17.000	36.000	0.2667	0.3405	0.5091	0.2667	0.0606	0.1758	0.1030	0.2182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1910
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6280
predicted_AVG	0.2111
predicted_BB	0.3930
predicted_H	0.7660
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_OBP	0.2923
predicted_R	0.5030
predicted_RBI	0.5170
predicted_SLG	0.4312
predicted_SO	0.8990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1910	0.2093	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.6280	3.6510	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2111	0.2110	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3780	0.3930	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7660	0.7506	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2010	0.1945	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2923	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5780	0.5030	0.5473	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5170	0.5070	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4310	0.4312	0.4311	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8990	0.8405	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Vázquez (543877) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 21

All-history rows before 20260516: 21

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2676

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	0.810	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.381	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.381	3.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	0.066	0.333
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	0.000	0.095	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.000	0.009	0.333
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.000	0.216	0.667
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.381	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.384	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.271	-0.015
predicted_H	0.667	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.096	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.000
predicted_R	0.314	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.354	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000
predicted_SO	0.684	0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.384	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.269	-0.002
predicted_H	0.651	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.094	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.024
predicted_R	0.301	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.339	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.325	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.689	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.0714	0.1333	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1875	0.2121	0.2812	0.1875	0.0312	0.0625	0.0312	0.2188
season	0.60	21	-	71.000	19.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	7.000	6.000	14.000	0.2676	0.3247	0.4507	0.2676	0.0423	0.1690	0.0845	0.1972

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1270
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3880
predicted_AVG	0.2212
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_H	0.7490
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_OBP	0.2755
predicted_R	0.2820
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.3559
predicted_SO	0.7130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1270	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3810	3.3880	3.3836	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2212	0.2211	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2440	0.2705	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7490	0.6675	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1070	0.0963	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2755	0.2758	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2820	0.3142	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3960	0.3543	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3559	0.3560	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7130	0.6839	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	543877
playerID	543877
playerName	Christian Vázquez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	HOU
teamID	11

Braden Shewmake (669699) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 10

All-history rows before 20260516: 10

System season_avg: 0.3420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3421

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3420

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.342	0.250	-0.342	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.300	1.000	-1.300	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.250	-0.092	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.526	0.250	-0.526	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.441	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.020
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.836	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.310	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.041	0.041
predicted_H	1.102	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.397	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.544	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.441	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.638	0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.836	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.041	-0.000
predicted_H	1.075	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.014	0.000
predicted_HR	0.101	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.049
predicted_R	0.380	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.521	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.049
predicted_SO	0.642	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.3810	0.3810	0.4286	0.3810	0.0000	0.1905	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	13.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	0.3421	0.3421	0.5263	0.3421	0.0526	0.1579	0.1579
season	0.60	10	-	38.000	13.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	0.3421	0.3421	0.5263	0.3421	0.0526	0.1579	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.9110
predicted_AVG	0.3096
predicted_BB	0.1290
predicted_H	1.2110
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_OBP	0.3367
predicted_R	0.3900
predicted_RBI	0.5950
predicted_SLG	0.4408
predicted_SO	0.7170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1620	0.1199	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.9110	3.8356	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3096	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1290	0.0414	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.2110	1.1017	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1130	0.1042	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3367	0.3369	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3900	0.3968	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5950	0.5441	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4410	0.4408	0.4409	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.7170	0.6376	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.342

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-3B
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669699
playerID	669699
playerName	Braden Shewmake
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Brice Matthews (694728) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 29

All-history rows before 20260516: 29

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.414	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.414	4.000	-1.414	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.500	-0.212	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.207	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.207	0.000	0.793	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.724	2.000	-0.724	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.500	0.079	-0.167
predicted_R	0.414	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.414	0.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.414	0.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.500	-0.394	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.172	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.172	1.000	-1.172	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.414	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.207	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.248	-
predicted_R	0.414	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	-
predicted_SO	1.172	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.517	0.103
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.197	-0.010
predicted_H	0.675	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.098	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.000
predicted_R	0.426	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.285	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000
predicted_SO	1.140	-0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.517	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.195	-0.001
predicted_H	0.658	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.095	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.230	-0.018
predicted_R	0.408	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.273	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.324	-0.026
predicted_SO	1.148	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.1842	0.2051	0.3158	0.1842	0.0263	0.0263	0.0263	0.2632
season	0.60	29	-	99.000	21.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	12.000	6.000	34.000	0.2121	0.2547	0.3939	0.2121	0.0404	0.1212	0.0606	0.3434

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0350
predicted_AB	3.6810
predicted_AVG	0.2114
predicted_BB	0.1800
predicted_H	0.7780
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_OBP	0.2481
predicted_R	0.4440
predicted_RBI	0.3250
predicted_SLG	0.3501
predicted_SO	1.0890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.1080	0.1264	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0350	0.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4140	3.6810	3.5169	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2114	0.2112	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2070	0.1800	0.1966	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7780	0.6748	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1110	0.0981	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2480	0.2481	0.2480	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4140	0.4440	0.4256	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3250	0.2851	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3500	0.3501	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1720	1.0890	1.1400	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	694728
playerID	694728
playerName	Brice Matthews
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Isaac Paredes (670623) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 40

All-history rows before 20260516: 40

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2603

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.650	3.000	0.350	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.333	-0.260	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.950	1.000	-0.950	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.500	-0.353	-0.500
predicted_R	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.425	1.000	-0.425	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	1.000	-0.450	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.390	1.333	-0.390	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.650	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.425	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.659	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.345	-0.030
predicted_H	0.924	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.150	-
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	-0.000
predicted_R	0.391	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.414	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000
predicted_SO	0.737	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.659	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.343	-0.003
predicted_H	0.901	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.150	0.000
predicted_HR	0.117	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.024
predicted_R	0.374	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.396	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.386	-0.003
predicted_SO	0.742	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.2286	0.3077	0.3429	0.2286	0.0286	0.0857	0.0571	0.2286
season	0.60	40	-	146.000	38.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	17.000	15.000	28.000	0.2603	0.3533	0.3904	0.2603	0.0274	0.1233	0.1027	0.1918

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6730
predicted_AVG	0.2529
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_H	0.9290
predicted_HBP	0.1500
predicted_HR	0.1200
predicted_OBP	0.3348
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.4190
predicted_SLG	0.3882
predicted_SO	0.7900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.1340	0.1584	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6500	3.6730	3.6593	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2529	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3020	0.3454	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9290	0.9236	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1500	0.1500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1200	0.1200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3348	0.3349	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4250	0.3400	0.3905	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4190	0.4136	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3882	0.3881	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.7900	0.7365	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670623
playerID	670623
playerName	Isaac Paredes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Kai-Wei Teng (678906) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 15

All-history rows before 20260516: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.600	3.000	0.400	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.333	5.000	-0.333	-4.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.547	3.000	3.453	2.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	1.533	1.000	3.467	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	6.000	13.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	5.5862	1.5517	0.6207	1.3448	0.2069	0.7241	0.1035
last_10	0.35	10	18.100	7.000	15.000	7.000	16.000	1.000	3.4364	1.2000	0.3818	0.8182	0.3818	0.8727	0.0546
season	0.20	15	26.000	9.000	20.000	8.000	23.000	3.000	3.1154	1.0769	0.3462	0.7692	0.3077	0.8846	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1480
predicted_ER	1.6330
predicted_ERA	4.2703
predicted_H	3.4170
predicted_HR	0.3740
predicted_IP	3.1000
predicted_SO	3.0320
predicted_WHIP	1.3266

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.1480	0.5077	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.6330	1.2799	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2703	4.2703	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	3.4170	2.0689	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.3740	0.7231	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	3.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	3.0320	4.1296	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3266	1.3266	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	5
HR	1
BF	16
Pitches	66

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	15
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.12
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	63
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	41
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	678906
playerID	678906
playerName	Kai-Wei Teng
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 16

All-history rows before 20260516: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.125	0.000	-0.125	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.062	1.200	0.038	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	2.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	2.7000	1.2000	0.3000	0.7500	0.4500	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	12.200	6.000	14.000	5.000	7.000	4.2632	1.5000	0.4737	1.1053	0.3947	0.5526
season	0.20	16	19.100	7.000	18.000	8.000	16.000	3.2586	1.3448	0.3621	0.9310	0.4138	0.8276

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5320
predicted_ER	0.5680
predicted_ERA	3.8337
predicted_H	1.2350
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0460
predicted_WHIP	1.3256

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5320	0.2187	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5680	0.2335	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8337	3.8337	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2350	1.0966	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0980	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0460	0.4300	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3256	1.3256	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.26
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan Abreu (650556) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 15

All-history rows before 20260516: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.133	1.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.867	0.000	2.133	3.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.867	0.000	2.133	3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.400	1.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	0.000	1.6875	1.5000	0.1875	0.7500	0.7500	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	5.000	8.000	10.000	13.000	1.000	4.5000	1.8000	0.5000	0.8000	1.0000	1.3000	0.1000
season	0.20	15	13.200	13.000	13.000	17.000	21.000	4.000	8.5610	2.1951	0.9512	0.9512	1.2439	1.5366	0.2927

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5760
predicted_ER	0.4610
predicted_ERA	4.1451
predicted_H	0.8930
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1260
predicted_WHIP	1.4688

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5760	0.8405	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.4610	2.0448	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1451	4.1451	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.8930	2.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1170	0.0440	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1260	1.0474	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4688	1.4688	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	8.56
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	650556
playerID	650556
playerName	Bryan Abreu
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 16

All-history rows before 20260516: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.938	0.000	0.062	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.981	1.100	0.019	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	1.5000	0.3333	0.1667	0.3333	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	7.000	11.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	5.9062	1.3125	0.6562	1.0312	0.2812	0.9375	0.0000
season	0.20	16	17.100	8.000	15.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	4.1538	1.0962	0.4615	0.8654	0.2308	0.9231	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_ER	0.4650
predicted_ERA	3.9433
predicted_H	0.8860
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0180
predicted_WHIP	1.1191

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3020	0.7209	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4650	0.1859	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9433	3.9433	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8860	0.9544	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0860	0.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0180	1.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1191	1.1191	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

AJ Blubaugh (805123) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 17

All-history rows before 20260516: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	3.000	-1.000	-3.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.882	2.000	-0.882	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.294	2.000	-1.294	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.447	2.000	-1.247	-1.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.294	1.000	-0.294	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.200	3.000	6.000	6.000	8.000	1.000	3.1154	1.3846	0.3462	0.6923	0.6923	0.9231	0.1154
last_10	0.35	10	15.100	4.000	10.000	11.000	14.000	1.000	2.3478	1.3696	0.2609	0.6522	0.7174	0.9130	0.0652
season	0.20	17	26.000	15.000	22.000	17.000	22.000	4.000	5.1923	1.5000	0.5769	0.8461	0.6539	0.8461	0.1538

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6340
predicted_ER	0.4860
predicted_ERA	3.7226
predicted_H	0.9660
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0920
predicted_WHIP	1.3615

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6340	0.2804	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4860	0.2149	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7226	3.7226	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9660	0.4272	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0610	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.1000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0920	1.0407	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3615	1.3615	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.19
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	46
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	27
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	805123
playerID	805123
playerName	AJ Blubaugh
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

20260516_TOR@DET

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.560241, "home_win_probability": 0.560241, "away_win_probability": 0.439759, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 DET", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 DET", "confidence": 0.560241, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 DET", "winner": "DET"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 DET", "winner": "DET"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	TOR 4 - 5 DET	DET	0.560	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	TOR 3 - 4 DET	DET	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away TOR	3-7	0.300	3.90	4	-1	1L	average	average
Home DET	2-8	0.200	2.80	5.50	-27	1W	cold	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away TOR	19-25	0.432	-15	-0.341	True
Home DET	20-25	0.444	-9	-0.200	True
Signal	-	-	0.141	0.160	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-15	TOR @ DET	2 - 3	DET	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target TOR	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target DET	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized TOR	33	8	2	0	2	2	8
Player finalized DET	32	9	2	0	2	3	9
Player model fractional TOR	31.98	6.95	3.40	0.82	3.61	2.42	6.79
Player model fractional DET	31.48	6.67	3.30	0.61	3.22	3.52	7.89
Simulation box TOR	32	5	3	0	3	3	4
Simulation box DET	31	7	4	1	4	5	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away TOR	Starter	Mason Fluharty	5	2	6	5	4	3.50	1.20	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Braydon Fisher	1	0	0	0	1	3.91	1.20	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Louis Varland	1	1	1	2	0	2.45	1.44	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Tyler Rogers	1	0	1	0	0	4.33	1.51	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Jeff Hoffman	0	1	0	0	0	4.79	1.56	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Tommy Nance	0	0	0	0	0	3.37	1.18	True
Home DET	Starter	Casey Mize	5.10	3	4	5	2	3.65	1.27	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Burch Smith	1.20	0	0	0	0	4.16	1.39	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Kenley Jansen	1	0	0	0	1	3.78	1.16	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Kyle Finnegan	1	0	0	0	0	2.47	1.30	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: TOR

Lenyn Sosa (672820) · BATTER · 2B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 15

All-history rows before 20260516: 15

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1961

Diff (system - data): 0.0159

System opponent_avg: 0.2120

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by 0.0159. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.478	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	2.000	0.600	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.196	0.000	-0.196	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.214	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_R	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_SO	0.826	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.867	0.000	0.133	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.478	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.214	-
predicted_R	0.304	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.298	-
predicted_SO	0.826	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.496	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.000
predicted_BB	0.026	0.026
predicted_H	0.617	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.214	-0.000
predicted_R	0.315	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.236	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.000
predicted_SO	0.855	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.496	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.616	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.055	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.182	-0.032
predicted_R	0.315	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.236	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.280	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.855	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.0000	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	11.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3143	0.2000	0.0286	0.0571	0.3143
season	0.60	23	-	80.000	17.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	19.000	0.2125	0.2125	0.3125	0.2125	0.0125	0.0750	0.2375

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5270
predicted_AVG	0.1973
predicted_BB	0.0710
predicted_H	0.6960
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2138
predicted_R	0.3330
predicted_RBI	0.2640
predicted_SLG	0.2984
predicted_SO	0.9040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2170	0.1560	0.1944	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4780	3.5270	3.4962	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1973	0.1971	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0710	0.0263	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6960	0.6167	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0650	0.0556	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2140	0.2138	0.2139	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3040	0.3330	0.3148	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2640	0.2363	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2980	0.2984	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8260	0.9040	0.8549	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	672820
playerID	672820
playerName	Lenyn Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kazuma Okamoto (672960) · BATTER · 3B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2390

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2390

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.116	1.000	-0.116	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.698	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.698	4.000	-0.698	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.250	0.094	0.083
predicted_BB	0.488	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.488	0.000	0.512	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.884	1.000	0.116	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.250	0.174	0.250
predicted_R	0.535	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.535	1.000	0.465	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.628	0.000	0.372	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.459	0.500	-0.126	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.209	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.209	2.000	-1.209	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.698	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.488	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.535	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	1.209	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.037
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.690	-0.008
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.492	0.005
predicted_H	0.824	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.151	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.000
predicted_R	0.535	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	1.202	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.493	0.000
predicted_H	0.823	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.003
predicted_R	0.535	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.387	-0.024
predicted_SO	1.202	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.1667	0.2727	0.2778	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3488	0.4167	0.2500	0.0278	0.1389	0.1667	0.3333
season	0.60	43	-	159.000	38.000	5.000	10.000	27.000	23.000	21.000	52.000	0.2390	0.3260	0.4591	0.2390	0.0629	0.1698	0.1321	0.3270

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2070
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6780
predicted_AVG	0.2292
predicted_BB	0.4990
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_OBP	0.3178
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.5440
predicted_SLG	0.4115
predicted_SO	1.1930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1160	0.2070	0.1532	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6980	3.6780	3.6898	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2292	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4880	0.4990	0.4925	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8430	0.8235	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1530	0.1512	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3178	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5350	0.5350	0.5350	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5440	0.5298	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4115	0.4112	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2090	1.1930	1.2025	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	672960
playerID	672960
playerName	Kazuma Okamoto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (665489) · BATTER · 1B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 43

All-history rows before 20260516: 43

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2893

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.698	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.698	4.000	0.302	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.000	-0.039	0.250
predicted_BB	0.512	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.070	0.000	-0.070	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.000	-0.130	0.250
predicted_R	0.558	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.558	0.000	0.442	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.442	0.000	0.558	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.000	-0.121	0.250
predicted_SO	0.512	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.512	1.000	-0.512	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.698	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.512	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.558	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.283	-
predicted_SO	0.512	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.704	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.505	-0.007
predicted_H	0.807	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.518	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.425	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.000
predicted_SO	0.550	0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.704	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.505	0.000
predicted_H	0.806	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.002
predicted_R	0.518	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.425	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.289	0.006
predicted_SO	0.550	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.0556	0.1818	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	0.1579	0.2500	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.1053	0.1316	0.1842
season	0.60	43	-	159.000	46.000	7.000	2.000	19.000	24.000	22.000	22.000	0.2893	0.3804	0.3711	0.2893	0.0126	0.1195	0.1384	0.1384

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7130
predicted_AVG	0.2201
predicted_BB	0.4940
predicted_H	0.8170
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.3133
predicted_R	0.4600
predicted_RBI	0.4320
predicted_SLG	0.2834
predicted_SO	0.6060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.1090	0.1409	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6980	3.7130	3.7041	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2201	0.2200	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5120	0.4940	0.5046	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8170	0.8070	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3133	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5580	0.4600	0.5179	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4320	0.4249	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2830	0.2834	0.2832	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5120	0.6060	0.5504	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	665489
playerID	665489
playerName	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Heineman (623168) · BATTER · C · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.842	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.700	1.000	1.300	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_BB	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_R	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SO	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.650	0.000	0.350	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.842	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	0.053	-
predicted_H	0.380	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.222	-
predicted_R	0.211	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.222	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.935	0.093
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000
predicted_BB	0.070	0.017
predicted_H	0.432	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.103	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.222	-0.000
predicted_R	0.218	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.159	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.679	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.935	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.147	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.070	0.000
predicted_H	0.431	-0.000
predicted_HBP	0.103	0.000
predicted_HR	0.025	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.167	-0.055
predicted_R	0.218	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.159	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.179	-0.043
predicted_SO	0.679	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.147 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.0833	0.1538	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.0000	0.0833
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	0.0714	0.1034	0.0714	0.0714	0.0357	0.0000	0.2500
season	0.60	19	-	54.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	13.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1667	0.1667	0.0370	0.0185	0.2407

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0510
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.1080
predicted_AVG	0.1699
predicted_BB	0.1020
predicted_H	0.5280
predicted_HBP	0.1030
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.2217
predicted_R	0.2300
predicted_RBI	0.1930
predicted_SLG	0.2218
predicted_SO	0.6710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0510	0.0178	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8420	3.1080	2.9349	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1699	0.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0530	0.1020	0.0701	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3800	0.5280	0.4317	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1030	0.1030	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0340	0.0249	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2220	0.2217	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2110	0.2300	0.2176	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1930	0.1585	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2220	0.2218	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.6710	0.6795	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	623168
playerID	623168
playerName	Tyler Heineman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TOR
teamID	29

George Springer (543807) · BATTER · DH · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 25

All-history rows before 20260516: 25

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.960	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.840	4.000	-0.840	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.146	0.333
predicted_BB	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.440	0.000	0.560	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.720	0.000	0.280	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.000	0.222	0.500
predicted_R	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.302	0.000	0.031	0.333
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.960	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.440	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.360	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.294	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.929	-0.030
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.416	-0.024
predicted_H	0.766	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.405	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.287	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.294	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.775	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.929	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.416	0.000
predicted_H	0.765	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.042	0.000
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.003
predicted_R	0.405	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.287	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.002
predicted_SO	0.775	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.960

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.1905	0.2609	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0952	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.1842	0.1579	0.0000	0.0263	0.0790	0.1316
season	0.60	25	-	96.000	18.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	11.000	20.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.3021	0.1875	0.0208	0.0729	0.1146	0.2083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8810
predicted_AVG	0.1956
predicted_BB	0.3770
predicted_H	0.7590
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2749
predicted_R	0.4770
predicted_RBI	0.2830
predicted_SLG	0.2937
predicted_SO	0.7360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1800	0.1923	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9600	3.8810	3.9295	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1956	0.1958	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4400	0.3770	0.4157	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.7590	0.7657	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0650	0.0681	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2749	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3600	0.4770	0.4052	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2830	0.2873	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2940	0.2937	0.2939	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.7360	0.7753	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	543807
playerID	543807
playerName	George Springer
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Yohendrick Pinango (682818) · BATTER · LF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 11

All-history rows before 20260516: 11

System season_avg: 0.3430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.182	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.182	4.000	-1.182	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.343	0.250	0.157	0.250
predicted_BB	0.273	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.091	1.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.395	0.250	0.355	0.500
predicted_R	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.250	0.129	0.250
predicted_SO	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.182	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.091	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	0.364	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.289	0.107
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	0.007
predicted_H	0.911	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.141	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.372	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.439	0.075

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.289	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.281	0.000
predicted_H	0.911	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.004
predicted_R	0.141	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.372	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.354	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.438	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3889	0.3636	0.3333	0.1212	0.0909	0.1212
season	0.60	11	-	35.000	12.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.3429	0.3947	0.3714	0.3429	0.1143	0.0857	0.1143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1190
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5140
predicted_AVG	0.2784
predicted_BB	0.2960
predicted_H	0.9780
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.3384
predicted_R	0.2480
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.3578
predicted_SO	0.5960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1190	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1820	3.5140	3.2886	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2784	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2960	0.2804	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9780	0.9115	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3384	0.3381	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0910	0.2480	0.1414	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3960	0.3716	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3578	0.3579	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3640	0.5960	0.4385	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.343

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	682818
playerID	682818
playerName	Yohendrick Pinango
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jesús Sánchez (660821) · BATTER · RF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 32

All-history rows before 20260516: 32

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2719

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2720

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.562	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.562	3.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.333	-0.272	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.969	1.000	-0.969	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.333	-0.312	-0.333
predicted_R	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.406	0.000	-0.406	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.451	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.439	0.333	-0.439	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.562	-
predicted_AVG	0.293	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.406	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.451	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.534	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.293	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.191	0.003
predicted_H	0.942	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.091	-
predicted_HR	0.139	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.342	-0.000
predicted_R	0.445	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.401	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.451	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.767	0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.534	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.191	0.000
predicted_H	0.941	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.091	0.000
predicted_HR	0.138	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.038
predicted_R	0.445	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.401	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	-0.035
predicted_SO	0.767	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.4286	0.5000	0.6429	0.4286	0.0714	0.1429	0.0714	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.3611	0.2778	0.0278	0.0556	0.0278	0.2222
season	0.60	32	-	114.000	31.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	13.000	6.000	24.000	0.2719	0.3120	0.4386	0.2719	0.0439	0.1404	0.0526	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4910
predicted_AVG	0.2927
predicted_BB	0.1950
predicted_H	1.0220
predicted_HBP	0.0910
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_OBP	0.3416
predicted_R	0.5040
predicted_RBI	0.4330
predicted_SLG	0.4505
predicted_SO	0.7940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0910	0.1116	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5620	3.4910	3.5341	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2930	0.2927	0.2929	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.1950	0.1908	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0220	0.9419	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0910	0.0910	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1520	0.1387	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3416	0.3418	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4060	0.5040	0.4446	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4330	0.4009	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4510	0.4505	0.4508	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7940	0.7673	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	660821
playerID	660821
playerName	Jesús Sánchez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Andrés Giménez (665926) · BATTER · SS · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 38

All-history rows before 20260516: 38

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2590

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2590

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	1.000	-0.184	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.658	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.658	3.000	0.342	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.333	-0.259	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.947	1.000	-0.947	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.333	-0.286	-0.333
predicted_R	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.658	2.000	-0.658	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.461	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.432	0.667	-0.432	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.632	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.632	1.000	0.368	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.658	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.105	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.316	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.461	-
predicted_SO	0.632	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.022	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.640	-0.018
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.102	-0.003
predicted_H	0.820	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.101	-
predicted_HR	0.172	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.332	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.766	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.461	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.663	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.640	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.102	0.000
predicted_H	0.819	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.101	0.000
predicted_HR	0.171	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.246	-0.035
predicted_R	0.332	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.766	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.427	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.663	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2353	0.2632	0.6471	0.2353	0.1177	0.4706	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	0.2286	0.2632	0.4286	0.2286	0.0571	0.2571	0.0000	0.2000
season	0.60	38	-	139.000	36.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	25.000	12.000	4.000	24.000	0.2590	0.2857	0.4317	0.2590	0.0360	0.1799	0.0288	0.1727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1720
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.6130
predicted_AVG	0.2474
predicted_BB	0.0970
predicted_H	0.8940
predicted_HBP	0.1010
predicted_HR	0.1890
predicted_OBP	0.2815
predicted_R	0.3570
predicted_RBI	0.8360
predicted_SLG	0.4606
predicted_SO	0.7100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1720	0.1792	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0150	0.0216	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6580	3.6130	3.6400	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2474	0.2472	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1050	0.0970	0.1018	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8940	0.8197	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1010	0.1010	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1890	0.1716	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2815	0.2812	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3160	0.3570	0.3324	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.8360	0.7664	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4610	0.4606	0.4608	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6320	0.7100	0.6632	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	665926
playerID	665926
playerName	Andrés Giménez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TOR
teamID	29

Daulton Varsho (662139) · BATTER · CF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 38

All-history rows before 20260516: 38

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2378

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.763	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.763	3.000	0.237	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.012	0.250
predicted_BB	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.895	0.000	0.105	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.000	-0.060	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.342	0.000	0.658	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.000	-0.135	0.250
predicted_SO	0.789	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.789	1.000	-0.789	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.763	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.342	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	0.789	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.763	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	-0.009
predicted_H	0.841	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.127	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.493	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.439	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.000
predicted_SO	0.856	0.067

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.763	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.032	0.000
predicted_HR	0.126	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.018
predicted_R	0.493	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.439	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.856	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.2105	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	0.2703	0.3415	0.3784	0.2703	0.0270	0.1351	0.1081	0.2973
season	0.60	38	-	143.000	34.000	6.000	5.000	13.000	19.000	13.000	30.000	0.2378	0.3101	0.3846	0.2378	0.0350	0.0909	0.0909	0.2098

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1250
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7640
predicted_AVG	0.2396
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_H	0.9020
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.3045
predicted_R	0.4830
predicted_RBI	0.4660
predicted_SLG	0.3824
predicted_SO	0.9550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1250	0.1447	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7630	3.7640	3.7634	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2396	0.2398	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3420	0.3190	0.3327	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9020	0.8411	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1360	0.1265	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3045	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4830	0.4931	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4660	0.4386	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3824	0.3822	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7890	0.9550	0.8560	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	662139
playerID	662139
playerName	Daulton Varsho
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Mason Fluharty (689254) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	0.318	0.000	3.682	4.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.409	0.000	1.591	2.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	0.636	0.000	4.364	5.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.491	0.100	4.509	4.900
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	0.864	0.000	5.136	6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6667	0.0000	0.6667	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	6.100	3.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	4.2632	1.2632	0.4737	0.7895	0.4737	1.1053	0.0000
season	0.20	21	15.000	7.000	12.000	7.000	19.000	1.000	4.2000	1.2667	0.4667	0.8000	0.4667	1.2667	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1340
predicted_ER	1.3150
predicted_ERA	3.5013
predicted_H	2.9180
predicted_HR	0.2910
predicted_IP	3.1000
predicted_SO	3.4020
predicted_WHIP	1.1983

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.1340	2.8956	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.3150	1.7360	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5013	3.5013	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	2.9180	4.1977	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2910	0.1121	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	3.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	3.4020	2.5403	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1983	1.1983	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	4
SO	6
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	94

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	2
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	2
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	689254
playerID	689254
playerName	Mason Fluharty
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Braydon Fisher (680755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.895	1.000	0.105	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.955	1.000	-0.955	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	3.3750	0.9375	0.3750	0.3750	0.5625	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	5.000	6.000	7.000	8.000	0.000	4.2188	1.2188	0.4688	0.5625	0.6562	0.7500	0.0000
season	0.20	22	23.200	8.000	16.000	10.000	21.000	1.000	3.0423	1.0986	0.3380	0.6761	0.4225	0.8873	0.0423

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4710
predicted_ER	0.4340
predicted_ERA	3.9102
predicted_H	0.7260
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8290
predicted_WHIP	1.1975

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4710	0.7713	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4340	0.1876	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9102	3.9102	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7260	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0307	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8290	0.3584	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1975	1.1975	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.04
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	680755
playerID	680755
playerName	Braydon Fisher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Louis Varland (686973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 21

All-history rows before 20260516: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.048	0.000	0.952	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.810	2.000	1.190	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.910	1.000	0.090	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.524	2.000	-0.524	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.0000	1.7143	0.0000	0.8571	0.8571	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	9.000	6.000	13.000	0.9643	1.6071	0.1071	0.9643	0.6429	1.3929
season	0.20	21	21.200	1.000	17.000	9.000	32.000	0.4154	1.2000	0.0461	0.7846	0.4154	1.4769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5260
predicted_ER	0.2720
predicted_ERA	2.4501
predicted_H	0.9120
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0540
predicted_WHIP	1.4371

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5260	0.2225	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2720	0.6920	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4501	2.4501	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9120	1.5397	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0690	0.6062	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0540	1.0228	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4371	1.4371	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	686973
playerID	686973
playerName	Louis Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Rogers (643511) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.885	0.200	0.115	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	6.7500	2.5000	0.7500	2.0000	0.5000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	3.000	8.000	2.000	7.000	3.1154	1.1538	0.3462	0.9231	0.2308	0.8077
season	0.20	20	19.100	4.000	16.000	6.000	12.000	1.8621	1.1379	0.2069	0.8276	0.3103	0.6207

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_ER	0.4500
predicted_ERA	4.3297
predicted_H	1.0600
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8530
predicted_WHIP	1.5092

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3510	0.1443	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4500	0.1850	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3297	4.3297	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0600	0.4358	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0680	0.0280	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8530	0.9396	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5092	1.5092	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	643511
playerID	643511
playerName	Tyler Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jeff Hoffman (656546) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 21

All-history rows before 20260516: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.619	1.000	0.381	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.333	2.000	-1.333	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.843	0.200	-0.843	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.619	2.000	-1.619	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.7143	0.2143	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	14.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	5.0000	1.7778	0.5556	1.5556	0.2222	1.2222	0.1111
season	0.20	21	19.100	13.000	28.000	8.000	34.000	3.000	6.0517	1.8621	0.6724	1.4483	0.4138	1.7586	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2040
predicted_ER	0.3320
predicted_ERA	4.7920
predicted_H	0.7650
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7050
predicted_WHIP	1.5553

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2040	0.0839	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3320	0.7254	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7920	4.7920	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7650	0.3145	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0910	0.0374	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7050	0.8787	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5553	1.5553	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	0
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.05
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656546
playerID	656546
playerName	Jeff Hoffman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tommy Nance (667297) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 19

All-history rows before 20260516: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	Pitching_BB	0.421	2.000	-0.421	-2.000
predicted_ER	Pitching_ER	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_H	Pitching_H	0.842	0.000	-0.842	0.000
predicted_IP	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.832	1.200	-0.832	-1.200
predicted_SO	Pitching_SO	1.263	3.000	-1.263	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	1.5000	1.0000	0.1667	0.6667	0.3333	1.1667	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	6.000	4.000	15.000	0.000	2.3824	0.8824	0.2647	0.5294	0.3529	1.3235	0.0000
season	0.20	19	20.000	9.000	16.000	8.000	24.000	1.000	4.0500	1.2000	0.4500	0.8000	0.4000	1.2000	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_ER	0.2600
predicted_ERA	3.3661
predicted_H	0.5620
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7480
predicted_WHIP	1.1773

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2560	0.1061	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2600	0.1078	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3661	3.3661	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5620	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0530	0.0220	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.7480	2.0663	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1773	1.1773	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.05
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	32
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	667297
playerID	667297
playerName	Tommy Nance
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Home Team: DET

Hao-Yu Lee (701678) · BATTER · 3B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 14

All-history rows before 20260516: 14

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.083	0.250
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.239	0.333	0.011	-0.083
predicted_R	0.214	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.214	0.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.307	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.262	0.000	0.738	1.000
predicted_SO	1.071	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.071	0.000	-1.071	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.183	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.214	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.307	-
predicted_SO	1.071	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.072	0.001
predicted_AB	3.089	0.089
predicted_AVG	0.183	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.284	-0.002
predicted_H	0.559	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.000
predicted_R	0.246	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.321	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.000
predicted_SO	1.032	-0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.072	0.000
predicted_AB	3.089	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.178	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.283	-0.001
predicted_H	0.550	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.011	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.247	-0.004
predicted_R	0.239	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.313	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.001
predicted_SO	1.036	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.0714	0.1333	0.2143	0.0714	0.0714	0.0714	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.1429	0.2258	0.2500	0.1429	0.1071	0.1071	0.3214
season	0.60	14	-	42.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	15.000	0.1667	0.2391	0.2619	0.1667	0.0952	0.0952	0.3571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0750
predicted_AB	3.2670
predicted_AVG	0.1827
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_H	0.5970
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.2508
predicted_R	0.3100
predicted_RBI	0.3440
predicted_SLG	0.3070
predicted_SO	0.9540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1320	0.1393	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.0750	0.0723	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2670	3.0893	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1830	0.1827	0.1829	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2800	0.2840	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.5970	0.5591	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2508	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2140	0.3100	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3440	0.3214	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3070	0.3070	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0710	0.9540	1.0319	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	701678
playerID	701678
playerName	Hao-Yu Lee
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Riley Greene (682985) · BATTER · LF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 44

All-history rows before 20260516: 44

System season_avg: 0.3310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3312

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.318	1.000	-0.318	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.636	4.000	-1.636	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.366	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.331	0.250	-0.331	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.591	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.591	0.000	0.409	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	1.180	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.205	1.000	-1.205	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.446	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.425	0.250	0.075	0.250
predicted_R	0.614	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.614	0.000	-0.614	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.523	1.000	-0.523	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.517	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.494	0.500	-0.494	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.136	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.136	2.000	-1.136	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.318	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.636	-
predicted_AVG	0.366	-
predicted_BB	0.591	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.446	-
predicted_R	0.614	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.517	-
predicted_SO	1.136	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.336	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.661	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.366	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.568	-0.023
predicted_H	1.250	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.446	0.000
predicted_R	0.571	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.468	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.517	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.095	-0.041

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.336	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.661	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.336	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.566	-0.002
predicted_H	1.230	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.061	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.425	-0.021
predicted_R	0.555	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.455	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.478	-0.039
predicted_SO	1.100	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.336 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.4737	0.5455	0.5789	0.4737	0.0000	0.1579	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	17.000	6.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	0.4595	0.5238	0.6216	0.4595	0.0000	0.1081	0.1351	0.2973
season	0.60	44	-	160.000	53.000	14.000	4.000	23.000	27.000	26.000	50.000	0.3312	0.4247	0.4938	0.3312	0.0250	0.1437	0.1625	0.3125

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3620
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6980
predicted_AVG	0.3657
predicted_BB	0.5350
predicted_H	1.3520
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.4460
predicted_R	0.5080
predicted_RBI	0.5080
predicted_SLG	0.5167
predicted_SO	1.0360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3180	0.3620	0.3360	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6360	3.6980	3.6614	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3660	0.3657	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5910	0.5350	0.5681	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.3520	1.2504	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0616	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4460	0.4460	0.4460	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6140	0.5080	0.5706	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5080	0.4678	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5170	0.5167	0.5169	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1360	1.0360	1.0951	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.331

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	682985
playerID	682985
playerName	Riley Greene
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	DET
teamID	10

Jake Rogers (668670) · BATTER · C · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 15

All-history rows before 20260516: 15

System season_avg: 0.1580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1579

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	2.923	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.533	2.000	0.467	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.158	0.000	0.175	0.333
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	1.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.209	0.333	0.291	0.167
predicted_R	0.308	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.263	0.000	0.070	0.333
predicted_SO	0.923	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	2.923	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.076	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.040	0.117
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.174	0.020
predicted_H	0.498	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.055	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.000
predicted_R	0.335	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	0.918	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.000
predicted_3B	0.076	0.000
predicted_AB	3.040	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	-0.040
predicted_BB	0.173	-0.001
predicted_H	0.490	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.055	0.000
predicted_HR	0.034	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.206	-0.051
predicted_R	0.326	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.243	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.294	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.922	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.161 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.3333	0.2000	0.0000	0.0667	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.1786	0.2424	0.2857	0.1786	0.1071	0.0714	0.2857
season	0.60	13	-	38.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.1579	0.2093	0.2632	0.1579	0.1053	0.0526	0.3158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0750
predicted_AB	3.2770
predicted_AVG	0.2006
predicted_BB	0.2150
predicted_H	0.6570
predicted_HBP	0.0550
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.2574
predicted_R	0.3910
predicted_RBI	0.3300
predicted_SLG	0.3280
predicted_SO	0.9080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1380	0.1487	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.0750	0.0763	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9230	3.2770	3.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2006	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.2150	0.1741	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.6570	0.4982	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0550	0.0550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0430	0.0343	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2574	0.2571	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.3910	0.3354	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.3300	0.2496	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3280	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.9080	0.9181	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.158

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	668670
playerID	668670
playerName	Jake Rogers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	DET
teamID	10

Matt Vierling (663837) · BATTER · CF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 27

All-history rows before 20260516: 27

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2062

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.593	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.593	4.000	0.407	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.250	0.294	0.250
predicted_BB	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.741	1.000	1.259	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.250	0.222	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.519	0.000	0.481	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.318	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.330	0.250	0.420	0.500
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.593	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.370	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.318	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.311	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.647	0.054
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.384	0.014
predicted_H	0.691	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.000
predicted_R	0.337	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.477	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.318	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.704	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.311	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.647	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.382	-0.002
predicted_H	0.680	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.053	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.011
predicted_R	0.328	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.464	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.316	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.707	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.1000	0.2174	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.1842	0.2791	0.3421	0.1842	0.0263	0.1579	0.1316	0.1842
season	0.60	27	-	97.000	20.000	9.000	1.000	14.000	9.000	10.000	18.000	0.2062	0.2778	0.3299	0.2062	0.0103	0.1443	0.1031	0.1856

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2760
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7330
predicted_AVG	0.1943
predicted_BB	0.4060
predicted_H	0.7250
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.2745
predicted_R	0.3440
predicted_RBI	0.5040
predicted_SLG	0.3177
predicted_SO	0.7620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2760	0.3110	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5930	3.7330	3.6471	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1943	0.1941	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3700	0.4060	0.3839	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7250	0.6913	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0590	0.0535	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2745	0.2748	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3440	0.3373	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5040	0.4770	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3180	0.3177	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7620	0.7037	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663837
playerID	663837
playerName	Matt Vierling
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	DET
teamID	10

Dillon Dingler (693307) · BATTER · DH · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 35

All-history rows before 20260516: 35

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2537

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	3.000	1.171	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.667	-0.054	-0.467
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.971	2.000	0.029	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.750	-0.124	-0.550
predicted_R	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.486	1.000	-0.486	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.771	0.000	-0.771	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.520	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.493	0.667	-0.293	-0.467
predicted_SO	0.771	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	0.000	2.229	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.829	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.520	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.830	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	0.022
predicted_H	1.022	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.062	-
predicted_HR	0.232	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.000
predicted_R	0.509	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.612	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.520	0.000
predicted_SO	0.807	0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.830	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.306	-0.001
predicted_H	1.005	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.062	0.000
predicted_HR	0.228	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.019
predicted_R	0.495	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.595	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.504	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.810	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.059

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.829

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.3684	0.4545	0.7895	0.3684	0.1053	0.1053	0.1579	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.4615	0.2308	0.0513	0.1282	0.0769	0.2564
season	0.60	35	-	134.000	34.000	8.000	8.000	27.000	17.000	10.000	27.000	0.2537	0.3243	0.4925	0.2537	0.0597	0.2015	0.0746	0.2015

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2610
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8310
predicted_AVG	0.2673
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_H	1.0240
predicted_HBP	0.0620
predicted_HR	0.2340
predicted_OBP	0.3363
predicted_R	0.5430
predicted_RBI	0.6140
predicted_SLG	0.5202
predicted_SO	0.8610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.2610	0.2418	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8290	3.8310	3.8298	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2673	0.2671	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3400	0.3076	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0240	1.0216	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0620	0.0620	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2340	0.2316	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3363	0.3361	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.5430	0.5088	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6140	0.6116	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5200	0.5202	0.5201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.8610	0.8071	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	693307
playerID	693307
playerName	Dillon Dingler
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	DET
teamID	10

Spencer Torkelson (679529) · BATTER · 1B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2028

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2030

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.405	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.405	3.000	-1.405	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.333	-0.203	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.595	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.595	1.000	1.405	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.690	1.000	-0.690	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.500	0.176	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.405	1.000	-0.405	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.333	-0.385	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.286	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.286	1.000	-1.286	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.405	-
predicted_AVG	0.181	-
predicted_BB	0.595	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.307	-
predicted_SO	1.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.414	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.000
predicted_BB	0.572	-0.023
predicted_H	0.561	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.070	-
predicted_HR	0.084	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.000
predicted_R	0.316	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.357	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.307	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.316	0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.414	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.162	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.570	-0.002
predicted_H	0.552	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.070	0.000
predicted_HR	0.083	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.019
predicted_R	0.308	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.347	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.286	-0.020
predicted_SO	1.321	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.1250	0.2857	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	17.000	0.1176	0.2439	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.0882	0.1471	0.5000
season	0.60	42	-	143.000	29.000	8.000	6.000	17.000	14.000	25.000	54.000	0.2028	0.3235	0.3846	0.2028	0.0420	0.1189	0.1748	0.3776

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4280
predicted_AVG	0.1812
predicted_BB	0.5390
predicted_H	0.6210
predicted_HBP	0.0700
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.3008
predicted_R	0.2920
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.3066
predicted_SO	1.3590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1560	0.1762	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4050	3.4280	3.4143	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1810	0.1812	0.1811	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5950	0.5390	0.5723	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6210	0.5610	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0700	0.0700	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0900	0.0841	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3008	0.3009	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2920	0.3163	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3960	0.3568	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3070	0.3066	0.3068	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2860	1.3590	1.3156	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	679529
playerID	679529
playerName	Spencer Torkelson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	DET
teamID	10

Kevin McGonigle (805808) · BATTER · SS · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 42

All-history rows before 20260516: 42

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2893

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.910	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.786	3.000	0.214	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.000	-0.039	0.250
predicted_BB	0.643	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.643	1.000	0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.095	0.000	-0.095	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.399	0.250	0.001	0.150
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.428	0.000	0.072	0.500
predicted_SO	0.571	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	0.000	2.429	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.910	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.643	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.367	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.039	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.805	-0.105
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000
predicted_BB	0.663	0.020
predicted_H	0.985	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000
predicted_R	0.625	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.302	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.000
predicted_SO	0.584	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	0.000
predicted_3B	0.039	0.000
predicted_AB	3.805	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.660	-0.003
predicted_H	0.969	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.365	-0.018
predicted_R	0.608	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.294	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.007
predicted_SO	0.586	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.910

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	0.2353	0.4091	0.2941	0.2353	0.0000	0.0000	0.2941	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	5.000	0.2059	0.3721	0.2353	0.2059	0.0000	0.0588	0.2353	0.1471
season	0.60	42	-	159.000	46.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	28.000	27.000	24.000	0.2893	0.3989	0.4277	0.2893	0.0126	0.1006	0.1698	0.1509

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2220
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.6540
predicted_AVG	0.2593
predicted_BB	0.6920
predicted_H	0.9480
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.3831
predicted_R	0.5650
predicted_RBI	0.2900
predicted_SLG	0.3669
predicted_SO	0.6020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2220	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0260	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9100	3.6540	3.8051	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2593	0.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6430	0.6920	0.6631	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	0.9480	0.9846	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3831	0.3830	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5650	0.6252	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.2900	0.3018	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3670	0.3669	0.3670	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.6020	0.5837	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	805808
playerID	805808
playerName	Kevin McGonigle
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	DET
teamID	10

Zach McKinstry (656716) · BATTER · 2B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

System season_avg: 0.1690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1692

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1690

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.169	0.000	-0.169	0.000
predicted_BB	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.350	1.000	0.650	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.265	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.246	0.000	-0.246	0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.350	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.100	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.265	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.298	0.048
predicted_AVG	0.184	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.350	0.000
predicted_H	0.544	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.000
predicted_R	0.132	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.206	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.265	0.000
predicted_SO	0.801	0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.298	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.162	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.348	-0.002
predicted_H	0.535	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.044	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.242	-0.021
predicted_R	0.129	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.201	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.235	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.805	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	0.1613	0.2571	0.1935	0.1613	0.0000	0.0000	0.1290	0.2258
season	0.60	20	-	65.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	16.000	0.1692	0.2500	0.2462	0.1692	0.0154	0.0769	0.1077	0.2462

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3830
predicted_AVG	0.1838
predicted_BB	0.3500
predicted_H	0.6220
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.2633
predicted_R	0.1890
predicted_RBI	0.2340
predicted_SLG	0.2652
predicted_SO	0.8040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1060	0.1022	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.3830	3.2984	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1838	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3500	0.3500	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6220	0.5444	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0540	0.0451	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2633	0.2631	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1000	0.1890	0.1324	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2340	0.2060	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2650	0.2652	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8040	0.8015	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.169

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656716
playerID	656716
playerName	Zach McKinstry
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	DET
teamID	10

Wenceel Pérez (672761) · BATTER · RF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 22

All-history rows before 20260516: 22

System season_avg: 0.1500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.636	4.000	0.364	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.150	0.250	0.100	0.000
predicted_BB	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.545	1.000	0.455	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.200	0.250	0.050	0.000
predicted_R	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.261	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.175	0.250	0.075	0.000
predicted_SO	0.545	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.545	1.000	1.455	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.636	-
predicted_AVG	0.200	-
predicted_BB	0.227	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.248	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.261	-
predicted_SO	0.545	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.015
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.698	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.200	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.230	0.003
predicted_H	0.672	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.000
predicted_R	0.318	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.314	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.597	0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.698	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.229	-0.001
predicted_H	0.661	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.227	-0.021
predicted_R	0.310	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.305	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.233	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.599	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.798

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.2857	0.2381	0.0952	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.2308	0.2683	0.2564	0.2308	0.1282	0.0513	0.1795
season	0.60	22	-	80.000	12.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	12.000	0.1500	0.2000	0.1750	0.1500	0.0625	0.0625	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1300
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.8010
predicted_AVG	0.1995
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	0.7580
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.2483
predicted_R	0.3940
predicted_RBI	0.3540
predicted_SLG	0.2606
predicted_SO	0.6840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1300	0.1056	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6360	3.8010	3.6977	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2000	0.1995	0.1998	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2270	0.2350	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7580	0.6716	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0307	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2480	0.2483	0.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.3940	0.3182	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3540	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2610	0.2606	0.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5450	0.6840	0.5969	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	672761
playerID	672761
playerName	Wenceel Pérez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	DET
teamID	10

Casey Mize (663554) · PITCHER · Starter · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 6

All-history rows before 20260516: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.833	1.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.667	2.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.333	3.000	0.667	2.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.933	2.100	0.167	3.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	5.833	3.000	-1.833	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.000	9.000	22.000	9.000	26.000	1.000	3.2400	1.2400	0.3600	0.8800	0.3600	1.0400	0.0400
last_10	0.35	6	31.000	10.000	26.000	11.000	35.000	2.000	2.9032	1.1935	0.3226	0.8387	0.3548	1.1290	0.0645
season	0.20	6	31.000	10.000	26.000	11.000	35.000	2.000	2.9032	1.1935	0.3226	0.8387	0.3548	1.1290	0.0645

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8540
predicted_ER	2.0380
predicted_ERA	3.6510
predicted_H	4.5400
predicted_HR	0.4140
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.0670
predicted_WHIP	1.2726

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.8540	1.9331	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.0380	2.5594	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6510	3.6510	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.5400	4.7893	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4140	0.1896	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.0670	3.9466	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2726	1.2726	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	90

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.90
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	34
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	25
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260428_DET@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663554
playerID	663554
playerName	Casey Mize
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Burch Smith (572143) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 10

All-history rows before 20260516: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.400	1.000	-1.400	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.330	2.000	-0.130	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.800	1.000	-1.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	3.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	4.7647	1.5882	0.5294	1.0588	0.5294	1.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	14.000	5.000	14.000	6.000	18.000	1.000	3.2143	1.4286	0.3571	1.0000	0.4286	1.2857	0.0714
season	0.20	10	14.000	5.000	14.000	6.000	18.000	1.000	3.2143	1.4286	0.3571	1.0000	0.4286	1.2857	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5290
predicted_ER	0.5850
predicted_ERA	4.1585
predicted_H	1.2310
predicted_HR	0.1640
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3470
predicted_WHIP	1.3904

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5290	0.2003	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5850	0.2215	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1585	4.1585	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2310	0.4660	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1640	0.0621	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3470	1.1314	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3904	1.3904	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	572143
playerID	572143
playerName	Burch Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kenley Jansen (445276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 14

All-history rows before 20260516: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.357	0.000	0.643	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.743	1.000	0.257	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.214	2.000	-1.214	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	3.8571	0.6429	0.4286	0.4286	0.2143	1.9286	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	1.8621	0.9310	0.2069	0.6207	0.3103	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	13	11.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	17.000	2.000	2.3824	0.9706	0.2647	0.6177	0.3529	1.5000	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_ER	0.4200
predicted_ERA	3.7841
predicted_H	0.8130
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1570
predicted_WHIP	1.1608

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3480	0.7661	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4200	0.1507	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7841	3.7841	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8130	0.2916	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1410	0.0506	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1570	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1608	1.1608	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.97
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	445276
playerID	445276
playerName	Kenley Jansen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kyle Finnegan (640448) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260516: 20

All-history rows before 20260516: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.940	1.100	0.060	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3333	0.0000	0.6667	0.6667	0.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	1.000	8.000	6.000	11.000	1.000	0.7714	1.2000	0.0857	0.6857	0.5143	0.9429	0.0857
season	0.20	19	20.200	1.000	12.000	14.000	14.000	1.000	0.4355	1.2581	0.0484	0.5806	0.6774	0.6774	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5450
predicted_ER	0.3070
predicted_ERA	2.4661
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9370
predicted_WHIP	1.2978

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5450	0.2278	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3070	0.1283	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4661	2.4661	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9090	0.3800	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0418	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9370	0.3917	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2978	1.2978	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.31
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	640448
playerID	640448
playerName	Kyle Finnegan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10