Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260515

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260515_ARI@COL 20260515_BAL@WAS 20260515_BOS@ATL 20260515_CHC@CHW 20260515_CIN@CLE 20260515_KC@STL 20260515_LAD@LAA 20260515_MIA@TB 20260515_MIL@MIN 20260515_NYY@NYM 20260515_PHI@PIT 20260515_SD@SEA 20260515_SF@OAK 20260515_TEX@HOU 20260515_TOR@DET

20260515_ARI@COL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.5236620000000001, "home_win_probability": 0.47633799999999993, "away_win_probability": 0.5236620000000001, "predicted_score_text": "ARI 6 - 4 COL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "ARI 6 - 4 COL", "confidence": 0.5236620000000001, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 4 COL", "winner": "ARI"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 7 - 4 COL", "winner": "ARI"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Season-to-date run differential, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	ARI 6 - 4 COL	ARI	0.524	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	ARI 7 - 4 COL	ARI	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away ARI	4-6	0.400	3.30	3.10	2	2L	cold	strong
Home COL	3-7	0.300	4.40	6.30	-19	1L	average	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away ARI	20-22	0.476	-25	-0.595	True
Home COL	17-27	0.386	-36	-0.818	True
Signal	-	-	-0.223	-0.358	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target ARI	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Game target COL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized ARI	32	9	5	0	1	2	8
Player finalized COL	33	9	3	0	1	1	9
Player model fractional ARI	32.98	7.48	4.40	0.90	3.87	3.11	7.06
Player model fractional COL	32.20	7.49	4.18	0.98	3.85	2.94	9.26
Simulation box ARI	35	8	7	2	7	6	4
Simulation box COL	37	10	4	1	4	4	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away ARI	Starter	Merrill Kelly	4.20	4	3	8	3	5.91	1.62	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Jonathan Loáisiga	1	0	0	0	0	3.84	1.24	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Juan Morillo	1	0	0	1	0	4.61	1.39	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Kevin Ginkel	1	0	1	0	0	4.38	1.35	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Paul Sewald	1	0	1	0	0	4.14	1.30	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Taylor Clarke	0.10	0	1	1	1	5.56	1.42	True
Home COL	Starter	Kyle Freeland	4.20	3	2	5	5	5.33	1.39	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Antonio Senzatela	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.01	1.05	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Juan Mejia	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.91	1.31	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Victor Vodnik	1	4	0	3	1	5.68	1.70	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Jaden Hill	0.20	0	0	0	0	4.43	1.41	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: ARI

Ketel Marte (606466) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 38

All-history rows before 20260515: 38

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2166

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	4.132	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.132	4.000	0.868	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.500	0.183	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.895	2.000	1.105	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	0.868	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.268	0.600	0.132	-0.200
predicted_R	0.526	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.526	1.000	0.474	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	4.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.395	0.000	3.605	4.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.369	0.500	0.631	0.500
predicted_SO	0.789	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	4.132	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.789	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.027
predicted_3B	0.071	0.018
predicted_AB	4.086	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.291	0.002
predicted_H	0.937	-0.033
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.112	-0.018
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.012
predicted_R	0.485	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.458	-0.032
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.745	-0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	4.086	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	0.002
predicted_H	0.959	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.115	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.007
predicted_R	0.504	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.475	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.003
predicted_SO	0.741	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=48.0, weight=0.246, BvP AVG=0.354)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	4.000	4.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.132

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.4737	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.0526
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.1707	0.2093	0.3171	0.1707	0.0000	0.0976	0.0488	0.1707
season	0.60	38	-	157.000	34.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	15.000	20.000	11.000	30.000	0.2166	0.2679	0.3694	0.2166	0.0319	0.0955	0.0701	0.1911

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0970
predicted_AB	4.0190
predicted_AVG	0.2208
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_H	0.8880
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.2747
predicted_R	0.4260
predicted_RBI	0.4100
predicted_SLG	0.3820
predicted_SO	0.6810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.1990	0.1592	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0970	0.0709	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1320	4.0190	4.0862	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2208	0.2346	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.2940	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.8880	0.9367	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.0850	0.1117	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2747	0.2927	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.4260	0.4854	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.4100	0.4575	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3820	0.3897	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7890	0.6810	0.7452	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	606466
playerID	606466
playerName	Ketel Marte
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 33

All-history rows before 20260515: 33

System season_avg: 0.3190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3185

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	4.091	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.091	5.000	-1.091	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.319	0.200	-0.319	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.121	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.121	0.000	0.879	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.303	1.000	-1.303	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.200	0.062	0.200
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.758	2.000	-0.758	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.533	0.200	-0.533	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	4.091	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.121	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.455	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.025	-0.005
predicted_AB	4.065	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.009
predicted_BB	0.137	0.016
predicted_H	0.949	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.026
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.004
predicted_R	0.626	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.571	0.131
predicted_SLG	0.412	0.017
predicted_SO	0.484	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	4.065	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.138	0.001
predicted_H	0.972	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.139	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.037
predicted_R	0.651	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.593	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.395	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.482	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.091

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.1951	0.2143	0.2927	0.1951	0.0244	0.1707	0.0244	0.1220
season	0.60	33	-	135.000	43.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	25.000	22.000	4.000	15.000	0.3185	0.3381	0.5333	0.3185	0.0519	0.1852	0.0296	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	4.0250
predicted_AVG	0.2655
predicted_BB	0.1620
predicted_H	1.0690
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1750
predicted_OBP	0.2955
predicted_R	0.5650
predicted_RBI	0.7680
predicted_SLG	0.4389
predicted_SO	0.5290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1380	0.1645	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0170	0.0248	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0910	4.0250	4.0647	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2655	0.2526	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1210	0.1620	0.1373	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.0690	0.9492	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1750	0.1359	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2955	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5650	0.6264	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.7680	0.5706	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4389	0.4125	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4550	0.5290	0.4845	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.319

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Corbin Carroll (682998) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2662

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_AB	3.475	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.475	2.000	-0.475	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.500	-0.266	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.600	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	3.000	1.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.925	1.000	-0.925	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.800	0.023	-0.400
predicted_R	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.650	1.000	0.350	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.504	1.000	-0.504	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.975	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.975	0.000	-0.975	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.100	-
predicted_AB	3.475	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.975	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	0.012
predicted_3B	0.081	-0.020
predicted_AB	3.443	-0.032
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.004
predicted_BB	0.645	0.045
predicted_H	0.809	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.099	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.032
predicted_R	0.651	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.373	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.023
predicted_SO	0.884	-0.091

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	0.000
predicted_3B	0.081	0.000
predicted_AB	3.443	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.649	0.004
predicted_H	0.828	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.047	0.000
predicted_HR	0.101	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.024
predicted_R	0.676	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.388	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.033
predicted_SO	0.879	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	0.2667	0.4762	0.4000	0.2667	0.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	8.000	4.000	0.2188	0.3810	0.4062	0.2188	0.0312	0.0625	0.2500	0.1250
season	0.60	40	-	139.000	37.000	10.000	4.000	5.000	20.000	26.000	24.000	39.000	0.2662	0.3772	0.5036	0.2662	0.0360	0.1439	0.1727	0.2806

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2800
predicted_3B	0.0520
predicted_AB	3.3970
predicted_AVG	0.2548
predicted_BB	0.7110
predicted_H	0.8660
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.3837
predicted_R	0.6520
predicted_RBI	0.3490
predicted_SLG	0.4529
predicted_SO	0.7500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2800	0.2622	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1000	0.0520	0.0805	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4750	3.3970	3.4434	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2548	0.2484	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.7110	0.6450	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8660	0.8089	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0970	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3837	0.3369	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.6520	0.6508	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3490	0.3734	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4529	0.4185	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9750	0.7500	0.8838	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	682998
playerID	682998
playerName	Corbin Carroll
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (666971) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1940

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.722	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.722	5.000	0.278	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.200	-0.194	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.389	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.722	1.000	-0.722	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.200	-0.070	0.000
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.239	0.400	-0.239	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.722	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.722	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.389	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.722	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.005
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.733	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.375	-0.014
predicted_H	0.772	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.076	-0.024
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.015
predicted_R	0.238	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.398	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.349	-0.046
predicted_SO	0.750	0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.733	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.377	0.002
predicted_H	0.790	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.006
predicted_R	0.248	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.413	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.746	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.0500	0.0952	0.1000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	0.2286	0.3250	0.2857	0.2286	0.0857	0.1429	0.2571
season	0.60	18	-	67.000	13.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	7.000	13.000	0.1940	0.2703	0.2388	0.1940	0.0896	0.1045	0.1940

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7510
predicted_AVG	0.1928
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_H	0.7230
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.2633
predicted_R	0.2670
predicted_RBI	0.3770
predicted_SLG	0.2706
predicted_SO	0.7990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1800	0.1718	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7220	3.7510	3.7326	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1928	0.2253	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3890	0.3510	0.3751	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.7230	0.7718	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0350	0.0762	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2633	0.2898	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.2670	0.2385	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.3770	0.3979	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2706	0.3495	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7220	0.7990	0.7502	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	666971
playerID	666971
playerName	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Gabriel Moreno (672515) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2029

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.632	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.632	5.000	0.368	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.400	0.297	0.100
predicted_BB	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	2.000	1.263	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.260	0.400	0.240	0.100
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.304	0.400	0.196	0.100
predicted_SO	0.947	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.947	1.000	-0.947	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.632	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.263	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.947	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.640	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.270	0.007
predicted_H	0.752	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.089	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.285	-0.020
predicted_R	0.351	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.396	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.965	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.640	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.271	0.002
predicted_H	0.769	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.091	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.019
predicted_R	0.365	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.959	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.1176	0.2000	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	14.000	0.1351	0.1707	0.2432	0.1351	0.0270	0.1351	0.0541	0.3784
season	0.60	19	-	69.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	18.000	0.2029	0.2597	0.3043	0.2029	0.0145	0.1014	0.0725	0.2609

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6540
predicted_AVG	0.1923
predicted_BB	0.2810
predicted_H	0.7030
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_OBP	0.2511
predicted_R	0.3220
predicted_RBI	0.3890
predicted_SLG	0.2939
predicted_SO	0.9960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.1540	0.1900	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6320	3.6540	3.6401	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1923	0.2250	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2630	0.2810	0.2696	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.7030	0.7517	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0700	0.0890	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2511	0.2852	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.3220	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3890	0.3960	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2939	0.3578	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9470	0.9960	0.9650	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	672515
playerID	672515
playerName	Gabriel Moreno
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 39

All-history rows before 20260515: 39

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2180

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_AB	3.410	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.410	3.000	0.590	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	-0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.641	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.641	2.000	0.359	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.744	0.000	-0.744	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.400	-0.138	-0.200
predicted_R	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.410	1.000	0.590	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	0.564	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.564	1.000	-0.564	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	3.410	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.641	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.410	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.564	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.015
predicted_3B	0.063	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.440	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.622	-0.019
predicted_H	0.744	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.077	-0.023
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.005
predicted_R	0.414	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.358	-0.032
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.607	0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.000
predicted_3B	0.063	0.000
predicted_AB	3.440	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.625	0.004
predicted_H	0.761	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.079	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.031
predicted_R	0.430	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.373	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.012
predicted_SO	0.604	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	0.1429	0.2857	0.2286	0.1429	0.0000	0.0857	0.2000	0.2000
season	0.60	39	-	133.000	29.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	16.000	25.000	22.000	0.2180	0.3375	0.3534	0.2180	0.0150	0.0902	0.1880	0.1654

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1900
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.4850
predicted_AVG	0.2024
predicted_BB	0.5930
predicted_H	0.7050
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.3174
predicted_R	0.4200
predicted_RBI	0.3120
predicted_SLG	0.3190
predicted_SO	0.6710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1900	0.1685	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.0420	0.0629	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4100	3.4850	3.4403	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2024	0.2272	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6410	0.5930	0.6216	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.7050	0.7438	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0440	0.0774	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3174	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4100	0.4200	0.4140	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3120	0.3585	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3190	0.3643	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5640	0.6710	0.6072	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 27

All-history rows before 20260515: 27

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2900

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.704	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.704	4.000	-0.704	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.185	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.185	0.000	0.815	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.074	0.000	-1.074	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.000	-0.080	0.250
predicted_R	0.704	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.704	0.000	-0.704	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_SO	0.926	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.926	1.000	1.074	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.704	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.185	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.704	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.926	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.669	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.215	0.030
predicted_H	0.788	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.075	-
predicted_HR	0.097	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.001
predicted_R	0.634	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.368	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.952	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.669	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.216	0.001
predicted_H	0.806	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.075	0.000
predicted_HR	0.099	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.041
predicted_R	0.659	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.383	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.331	-0.043
predicted_SO	0.946	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	0.0625	0.2105	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.4375
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.2286	0.3077	0.3429	0.2286	0.0286	0.0857	0.0857	0.2571
season	0.60	27	-	100.000	29.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	19.000	5.000	25.000	0.2900	0.3302	0.4100	0.2900	0.0300	0.1200	0.0500	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6140
predicted_AVG	0.2348
predicted_BB	0.2630
predicted_H	0.8480
predicted_HBP	0.0750
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_OBP	0.3026
predicted_R	0.5220
predicted_RBI	0.3500
predicted_SLG	0.3419
predicted_SO	0.9930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1050	0.1087	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7040	3.6140	3.6693	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2348	0.2405	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1850	0.2630	0.2151	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8480	0.7878	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0750	0.0750	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0920	0.0969	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3026	0.3041	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7040	0.5220	0.6338	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3500	0.3684	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3419	0.3745	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9260	0.9930	0.9518	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	699912
playerID	699912
playerName	Jose Fernandez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Nolan Arenado (571448) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 39

All-history rows before 20260515: 39

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2761

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	2.000	0.846	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.436	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.436	4.000	1.564	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.400	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.500	0.124	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.949	2.000	1.051	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.400	0.069	0.000
predicted_R	0.564	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.564	2.000	0.436	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	2.000	0.487	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.600	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.455	1.000	0.145	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.744	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.744	1.000	-0.744	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.436	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.282	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.564	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.744	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	0.050
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.442	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.012
predicted_BB	0.320	0.038
predicted_H	0.829	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.106	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.016
predicted_R	0.586	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.408	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.024
predicted_SO	0.739	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.442	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.322	0.002
predicted_H	0.849	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.036	0.000
predicted_HR	0.108	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.010
predicted_R	0.609	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.734	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2941	0.3810	0.4706	0.2941	0.0000	0.1177	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	0.2812	0.3846	0.5000	0.2812	0.0312	0.0938	0.1562	0.2188
season	0.60	39	-	134.000	37.000	6.000	6.000	20.000	22.000	11.000	29.000	0.2761	0.3311	0.4552	0.2761	0.0448	0.1492	0.0821	0.2164

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2780
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4510
predicted_AVG	0.2745
predicted_BB	0.3760
predicted_H	0.9480
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_OBP	0.3440
predicted_R	0.6190
predicted_RBI	0.4510
predicted_SLG	0.4550
predicted_SO	0.7310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.2780	0.2037	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4360	3.4510	3.4420	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2745	0.2562	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2820	0.3760	0.3197	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.9480	0.8293	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1140	0.1056	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3440	0.3206	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5640	0.6190	0.5860	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4510	0.4085	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4550	0.4190	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7440	0.7310	0.7388	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	571448
playerID	571448
playerName	Nolan Arenado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ryan Waldschmidt (814439) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 5

All-history rows before 20260515: 5

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	4.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.250	0.265	0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_H	0.670	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.400	0.222	0.100
predicted_R	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	1.400	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.250	0.897	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.365	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.466	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.214	0.014
predicted_H	0.726	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.003
predicted_R	0.248	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.389	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.391	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.978	-0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.365	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.466	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.215	0.001
predicted_H	0.743	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.088	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.260	-0.042
predicted_R	0.257	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.405	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.006
predicted_SO	0.972	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.3529	0.2353	0.1765	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.3529	0.2353	0.1765	0.0588	0.2941
season	0.60	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.3529	0.2353	0.1765	0.0588	0.2941

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2690
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.6480
predicted_AVG	0.2406
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_H	0.8780
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.2950
predicted_R	0.3780
predicted_RBI	0.5250
predicted_SLG	0.3789
predicted_SO	0.9160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.2690	0.3650	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.6480	3.4663	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2406	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2510	0.2136	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8780	0.7256	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0730	0.0855	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2950	0.3023	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3780	0.2476	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.5250	0.3894	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3789	0.3907	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9160	0.9776	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	814439
playerID	814439
playerName	Ryan Waldschmidt
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Merrill Kelly (518876) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 5

All-history rows before 20260515: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	3.600	3.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	4.400	1.000	-0.400	3.000
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	6.400	3.000	1.600	5.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.060	7.000	-0.860	-2.800
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	4.000	6.000	-1.000	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 8.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.000	22.000	32.000	18.000	20.000	6.000	7.6154	1.9231	0.8461	1.2308	0.6923	0.7692	0.2308
last_10	0.35	5	26.000	22.000	32.000	18.000	20.000	6.000	7.6154	1.9231	0.8461	1.2308	0.6923	0.7692	0.2308
season	0.20	5	26.000	22.000	32.000	18.000	20.000	6.000	7.6154	1.9231	0.8461	1.2308	0.6923	0.7692	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.5790
predicted_ER	4.3750
predicted_ERA	5.9057
predicted_H	7.2330
predicted_HR	1.1990
predicted_IP	6.2000
predicted_SO	5.7620
predicted_WHIP	1.6218

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	3.5790	3.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	4.3750	2.4808	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.9057	5.9057	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	7.2330	7.6635	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	1.1990	1.0873	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	8.0000	6.2000	7.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	5.7620	3.6506	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6218	1.6218	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	8
R	4
ER	4
BB	3
SO	3
HR	1
BF	25
Pitches	96

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	7.62
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	518876
playerID	518876
playerName	Merrill Kelly
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 2

All-history rows before 20260515: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1460
predicted_ER	0.1780
predicted_ERA	3.8398
predicted_H	0.3750
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3980
predicted_WHIP	1.2448

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1460	0.0385	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1780	0.0469	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8398	3.8398	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3750	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0490	0.0129	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3980	0.1048	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2448	1.2448	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 2

All-history rows before 20260515: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	0.400	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1530
predicted_ER	0.1810
predicted_ERA	4.6068
predicted_H	0.3380
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3320
predicted_WHIP	1.3877

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1530	0.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1810	0.7922	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6068	4.6068	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3380	0.8320	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0560	0.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3320	0.0843	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3877	1.3877	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Kevin Ginkel (656464) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 1

All-history rows before 20260515: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1320
predicted_ER	0.1750
predicted_ERA	4.3800
predicted_H	0.3520
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3310
predicted_WHIP	1.3466

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1320	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1750	0.7990	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3800	4.3800	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3520	0.0858	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0450	0.0110	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3310	0.8370	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3466	1.3466	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260327_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656464
playerID	656464
playerName	Kevin Ginkel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 1

All-history rows before 20260515: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	0.900	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100
last_10	0.35	1	0.100
season	0.20	1	0.100

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1250
predicted_ER	0.1530
predicted_ERA	4.1411
predicted_H	0.3090
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3160
predicted_WHIP	1.3032

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1250	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1530	0.0357	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1411	4.1411	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3090	0.0720	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0420	0.0098	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3160	0.8406	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3032	1.3032	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Taylor Clarke (664199) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 1

All-history rows before 20260515: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	4.000	4.000	-4.000	-4.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	3.000	3.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100	4.000	3.000	1.000	108.0000	9.0000	12.0000	9.0000	3.0000
last_10	0.35	1	0.100	4.000	3.000	1.000	108.0000	9.0000	12.0000	9.0000	3.0000
season	0.20	1	0.100	4.000	3.000	1.000	108.0000	9.0000	12.0000	9.0000	3.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1250
predicted_ER	0.2060
predicted_ERA	5.5559
predicted_H	0.3480
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3160
predicted_WHIP	1.4211

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1250	0.7961	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2060	0.8150	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.5559	5.5559	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3480	0.8481	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0560	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.3160	1.6076	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4211	1.4211	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	108.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	664199
playerID	664199
playerName	Taylor Clarke
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Home Team: COL

Edouard Julien (666397) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 30

All-history rows before 20260515: 30

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2596

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.467	3.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.000	0.240	0.500
predicted_BB	0.467	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	0.000	1.100	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.600	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.000	0.253	0.600
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.135	0.500
predicted_SO	1.100	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.100	1.000	-1.100	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.467	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.100	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.472	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.458	-0.009
predicted_H	0.786	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.094	-0.016
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.459	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.371	-0.039
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.033
predicted_SO	1.075	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.472	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.456	-0.002
predicted_H	0.787	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.095	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.011
predicted_R	0.458	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.371	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.351	-0.011
predicted_SO	1.079	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.0667	0.1765	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.1333	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	13.000	0.1944	0.3095	0.2778	0.1944	0.0278	0.0556	0.1667	0.3611
season	0.60	30	-	104.000	27.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	14.000	33.000	0.2596	0.3475	0.3654	0.2596	0.0192	0.1154	0.1346	0.3173

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0810
predicted_3B	0.0190
predicted_AB	3.4800
predicted_AVG	0.2152
predicted_BB	0.4430
predicted_H	0.7490
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_OBP	0.3056
predicted_R	0.3940
predicted_RBI	0.3110
predicted_SLG	0.3097
predicted_SO	1.0360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0810	0.0926	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0190	0.0275	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4670	3.4800	3.4721	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2152	0.2327	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.4430	0.4576	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.7490	0.7862	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0700	0.0944	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3056	0.3052	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3940	0.4586	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.3110	0.3713	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3097	0.3617	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1000	1.0360	1.0750	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	666397
playerID	666397
playerName	Edouard Julien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Mickey Moniak (666160) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 32

All-history rows before 20260515: 32

System season_avg: 0.3170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3171

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.844	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.844	3.000	1.156	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.317	0.000	0.083	0.400
predicted_BB	0.281	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.281	1.000	-0.281	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.219	0.000	0.781	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.250	0.034	0.150
predicted_R	0.656	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.656	0.000	0.344	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.781	0.000	2.219	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.707	0.000	0.293	1.000
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	0.000	-0.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.844	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.281	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.656	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.076	0.014
predicted_AB	3.848	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.019
predicted_BB	0.277	-0.004
predicted_H	0.959	0.109
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.186	0.076
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.014
predicted_R	0.611	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.568	0.138
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.096
predicted_SO	1.128	0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.076	0.000
predicted_AB	3.848	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.276	-0.001
predicted_H	0.961	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.188	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.020
predicted_R	0.610	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.568	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.497	0.007
predicted_SO	1.132	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.844

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.5789	0.2632	0.0526	0.2632	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	0.3000	0.3488	0.7500	0.3000	0.1000	0.2250	0.0750	0.3000
season	0.60	32	-	123.000	39.000	8.000	2.000	12.000	25.000	21.000	9.000	36.000	0.3171	0.3657	0.7073	0.3171	0.0976	0.2032	0.0732	0.2927

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2210
predicted_3B	0.0980
predicted_AB	3.8530
predicted_AVG	0.2921
predicted_BB	0.2710
predicted_H	1.1260
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.3030
predicted_OBP	0.3412
predicted_R	0.5420
predicted_RBI	0.7790
predicted_SLG	0.6361
predicted_SO	1.1330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2210	0.2385	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0980	0.0763	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8440	3.8530	3.8476	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2921	0.2631	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2810	0.2710	0.2770	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	1.1260	0.9594	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.3030	0.1865	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3412	0.3194	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6560	0.5420	0.6108	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.7790	0.5684	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.6361	0.4906	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.1330	1.1282	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.317

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	666160
playerID	666160
playerName	Mickey Moniak
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	COL
teamID	9

Hunter Goodman (696100) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 37

All-history rows before 20260515: 37

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2432

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.250	0.007	0.000
predicted_BB	0.297	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.297	0.000	0.703	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.973	1.000	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.250	0.091	0.150
predicted_R	0.649	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.649	0.000	-0.649	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.250	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	1.595	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.595	0.000	-1.595	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.297	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.649	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.595	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.008	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.004
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.027
predicted_H	0.944	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.155	0.035
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.001
predicted_R	0.580	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.027
predicted_SO	1.488	-0.107

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.008	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.269	-0.001
predicted_H	0.945	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.156	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.021
predicted_R	0.579	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.460	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.406	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.493	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.5238	0.3333	0.0476	0.1429	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	0.2195	0.2558	0.3415	0.2195	0.0244	0.0976	0.0488	0.3171
season	0.60	37	-	148.000	36.000	8.000	10.000	17.000	24.000	11.000	59.000	0.2432	0.3086	0.5000	0.2432	0.0676	0.1149	0.0743	0.3987

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2050
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0190
predicted_AVG	0.2545
predicted_BB	0.2310
predicted_H	1.0230
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.2060
predicted_OBP	0.3034
predicted_R	0.4770
predicted_RBI	0.4750
predicted_SLG	0.4608
predicted_SO	1.3290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.2050	0.2116	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0190	4.0077	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2545	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2970	0.2310	0.2703	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0230	0.9438	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.2060	0.1548	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3034	0.3044	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6490	0.4770	0.5795	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4750	0.4601	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4608	0.4216	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5950	1.3290	1.4875	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	696100
playerID	696100
playerName	Hunter Goodman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	COL
teamID	9

TJ Rumfield (681198) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2781

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.775	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.775	2.000	1.225	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.500	0.122	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	2.000	-0.375	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.050	1.000	0.950	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.750	0.051	-0.350
predicted_R	0.425	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.425	1.000	0.575	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.525	0.000	0.475	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.437	0.500	-0.037	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.725	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.725	1.000	0.275	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.775	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.425	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.725	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.787	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.018
predicted_BB	0.373	-0.002
predicted_H	0.933	0.113
predicted_HBP	0.081	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.023
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.024
predicted_R	0.474	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.449	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.426	0.031
predicted_SO	0.778	0.053

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.787	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.372	-0.001
predicted_H	0.934	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.081	0.000
predicted_HR	0.133	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.015
predicted_R	0.473	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.449	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.409	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.781	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	9.000	0.3333	0.4091	0.5897	0.3333	0.0769	0.1282	0.1026	0.2308
season	0.60	40	-	151.000	42.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	21.000	17.000	15.000	29.000	0.2781	0.3491	0.4371	0.2782	0.0331	0.1391	0.0993	0.1920

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1680
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.8040
predicted_AVG	0.2887
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_H	1.0980
predicted_HBP	0.0810
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_OBP	0.3629
predicted_R	0.5450
predicted_RBI	0.4920
predicted_SLG	0.4717
predicted_SO	0.8550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.1680	0.1722	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0150	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7750	3.8040	3.7868	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2887	0.2621	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3700	0.3730	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.0980	0.9328	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0810	0.0810	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1660	0.1327	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3629	0.3285	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4250	0.5450	0.4737	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4920	0.4492	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4717	0.4261	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7250	0.8550	0.7778	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	681198
playerID	681198
playerName	TJ Rumfield
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

Troy Johnston (687859) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 35

All-history rows before 20260515: 35

System season_avg: 0.3230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3226

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.314	1.000	-0.314	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.647	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.543	3.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.323	0.333	-0.323	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.294	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.314	0.000	0.686	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.143	1.000	-1.143	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.387	0.333	-0.187	-0.133
predicted_R	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	2.000	-0.514	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.460	0.667	-0.460	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.794	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	0.000	0.229	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.324	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.647	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.382	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.794	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.325	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.613	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.027
predicted_BB	0.287	-0.007
predicted_H	0.892	0.142
predicted_HBP	0.073	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.020
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.027
predicted_R	0.400	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.020
predicted_SO	0.779	-0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.325	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.613	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.286	-0.001
predicted_H	0.894	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.073	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.030
predicted_R	0.399	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.410	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.404	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.782	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.4375	0.3125	0.0000	0.1250	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.3529	0.4211	0.4706	0.3529	0.0000	0.0882	0.0882	0.2059
season	0.60	34	-	124.000	40.000	11.000	2.000	18.000	13.000	10.000	27.000	0.3226	0.3778	0.4597	0.3226	0.0161	0.1452	0.0806	0.2177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3270
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5610
predicted_AVG	0.3116
predicted_BB	0.2770
predicted_H	1.1090
predicted_HBP	0.0730
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.3735
predicted_R	0.4260
predicted_RBI	0.4580
predicted_SLG	0.4460
predicted_SO	0.7560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3240	0.3270	0.3252	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6470	3.5610	3.6129	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3116	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.2770	0.2873	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	1.1090	0.8925	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0730	0.0730	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0490	0.0798	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3735	0.3322	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3820	0.4260	0.3995	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4580	0.4110	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4460	0.4152	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7940	0.7560	0.7789	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.323

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	687859
playerID	687859
playerName	Troy Johnston
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

Willi Castro (650489) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 31

All-history rows before 20260515: 31

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2389

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.161	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.161	0.000	0.839	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.645	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.645	3.000	0.355	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.261	0.500
predicted_BB	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.323	1.000	-0.323	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.871	0.000	1.129	2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.194	0.250
predicted_R	0.581	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.581	1.000	0.419	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.336	0.000	0.414	0.750
predicted_SO	1.323	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.323	2.000	-1.323	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.645	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.323	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.581	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.323	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.676	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.311	-0.012
predicted_H	0.799	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.009
predicted_R	0.589	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.391	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.372	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.304	-0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.310	-0.001
predicted_H	0.800	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.101	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.018
predicted_R	0.589	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.390	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.032
predicted_SO	1.308	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.4210
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	13.000	0.2105	0.2683	0.2895	0.2105	0.0263	0.0790	0.0790	0.3421
season	0.60	31	-	113.000	27.000	5.000	2.000	13.000	18.000	10.000	41.000	0.2389	0.3065	0.3363	0.2389	0.0177	0.1150	0.0885	0.3628

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7240
predicted_AVG	0.2222
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_H	0.8280
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_OBP	0.2830
predicted_R	0.6020
predicted_RBI	0.3760
predicted_SLG	0.3368
predicted_SO	1.2740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1610	0.1140	0.1425	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6450	3.7240	3.6760	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2222	0.2354	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3230	0.2920	0.3108	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8280	0.7989	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1020	0.1008	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2830	0.2964	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5810	0.6020	0.5893	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3760	0.3906	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3368	0.3721	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3230	1.2740	1.3037	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	650489
playerID	650489
playerName	Willi Castro
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	COL
teamID	9

Jake McCarthy (664983) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 27

All-history rows before 20260515: 27

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2785

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.259	1.000	-0.259	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_AB	2.926	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.926	2.000	1.074	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.500	-0.278	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.815	1.000	-0.815	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.500	-0.337	-0.500
predicted_R	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.519	1.000	-0.519	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.494	1.000	-0.494	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.593	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.593	0.000	0.407	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	-
predicted_3B	0.074	-
predicted_AB	2.926	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.296	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.593	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	-0.007
predicted_AB	3.002	0.076
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.018
predicted_BB	0.231	0.009
predicted_H	0.735	0.105
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.097	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.016
predicted_R	0.332	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.459	0.139
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.050
predicted_SO	0.624	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.002	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.231	-0.001
predicted_H	0.736	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.098	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.022
predicted_R	0.332	-0.000
predicted_RBI	0.458	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.028
predicted_SO	0.627	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3571	0.4000	0.7143	0.3571	0.0714	0.4286	0.0714	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.3448	0.4062	0.6897	0.3448	0.0690	0.3103	0.1035	0.1724
season	0.60	27	-	79.000	22.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	14.000	8.000	6.000	16.000	0.2785	0.3372	0.4937	0.2785	0.0253	0.1772	0.0760	0.2025

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2600
predicted_3B	0.0540
predicted_AB	3.1280
predicted_AVG	0.2910
predicted_BB	0.2470
predicted_H	0.9100
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_OBP	0.3485
predicted_R	0.3930
predicted_RBI	0.6900
predicted_SLG	0.5298
predicted_SO	0.6770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2590	0.2600	0.2594	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0740	0.0540	0.0665	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9260	3.1280	3.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2910	0.2616	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2470	0.2314	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.9100	0.7348	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1260	0.0972	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3485	0.3213	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2960	0.3930	0.3323	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.6900	0.4585	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5298	0.4455	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5930	0.6770	0.6244	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	664983
playerID	664983
playerName	Jake McCarthy
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Karros (691720) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 37

All-history rows before 20260515: 37

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2212

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.054	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.054	3.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.333	0.112	0.000
predicted_BB	0.568	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.568	1.000	0.432	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.676	1.000	0.324	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.500	0.162	0.000
predicted_R	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	1.000	-0.432	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.270	1.000	-0.270	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.301	0.333	0.032	0.000
predicted_SO	0.946	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.946	0.000	-0.946	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.054	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.568	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.946	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.038
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.152	0.099
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.531	-0.037
predicted_H	0.676	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.061	-0.019
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.011
predicted_R	0.440	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.381	0.071
predicted_SLG	0.377	-0.018
predicted_SO	1.007	0.061

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.152	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.529	-0.002
predicted_H	0.677	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.012
predicted_R	0.439	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.380	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.040
predicted_SO	1.010	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.4118	0.2353	0.0000	0.2941	0.1177	0.4118
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	5.000	4.000	15.000	0.2941	0.3590	0.3824	0.2941	0.0000	0.2059	0.1177	0.4412
season	0.60	37	-	113.000	25.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	16.000	21.000	35.000	0.2212	0.3382	0.3009	0.2212	0.0089	0.0885	0.1858	0.3097

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2580
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3020
predicted_AVG	0.2395
predicted_BB	0.4740
predicted_H	0.7910
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.3320
predicted_R	0.4510
predicted_RBI	0.4880
predicted_SLG	0.3493
predicted_SO	1.0990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.2580	0.2001	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0540	3.3020	3.1525	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2395	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5680	0.4740	0.5307	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7910	0.6759	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0330	0.0613	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3320	0.3157	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.4510	0.4395	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.4880	0.3807	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3493	0.3769	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9460	1.0990	1.0068	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	691720
playerID	691720
playerName	Kyle Karros
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	COL
teamID	9

Ezequiel Tovar (678662) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 39

All-history rows before 20260515: 39

System season_avg: 0.2010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2014

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.692	3.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.201	0.333	-0.201	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.744	1.000	-0.744	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.252	0.333	-0.252	-0.333
predicted_R	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.278	0.333	-0.278	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.077	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.077	0.000	0.923	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.692	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.205	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.282	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.077	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.646	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.217	0.012
predicted_H	0.761	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.030	-
predicted_HR	0.072	-0.028
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.013
predicted_R	0.298	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.362	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.350	-0.045
predicted_SO	1.046	-0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.646	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.216	-0.001
predicted_H	0.762	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.253	-0.039
predicted_R	0.297	-0.000
predicted_RBI	0.362	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.317	-0.034
predicted_SO	1.050	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, weight=0.139, BvP AVG=0.438)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.2941	0.2941	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.1875	0.2500	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.0938	0.0938	0.2812
season	0.60	39	-	144.000	29.000	8.000	1.000	11.000	11.000	8.000	42.000	0.2014	0.2516	0.2778	0.2014	0.0069	0.0764	0.0556	0.2917

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1270
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5780
predicted_AVG	0.2215
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	0.7920
predicted_HBP	0.0300
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.2737
predicted_R	0.3210
predicted_RBI	0.3360
predicted_SLG	0.2843
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.1270	0.1736	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6920	3.5780	3.6461	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2215	0.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2050	0.2350	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7920	0.7609	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0300	0.0300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0310	0.0722	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2737	0.2924	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2820	0.3210	0.2977	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3360	0.3623	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2843	0.3504	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0770	1.0000	1.0460	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.201

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	678662
playerID	678662
playerName	Ezequiel Tovar
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Freeland (607536) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 7

All-history rows before 20260515: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_BB	1.143	0.000	3.857	5.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.857	6.000	0.143	-3.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.143	10.000	-0.143	-5.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.186	5.000	0.014	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	4.000	4.000	-2.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.200	18.000	31.000	6.000	26.000	7.000	6.3117	1.4416	0.7013	1.2078	0.2338	1.0130	0.2727
last_10	0.35	6	30.000	20.000	36.000	8.000	28.000	7.000	6.0000	1.4667	0.6667	1.2000	0.2667	0.9333	0.2333
season	0.20	6	30.000	20.000	36.000	8.000	28.000	7.000	6.0000	1.4667	0.6667	1.2000	0.2667	0.9333	0.2333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5160
predicted_ER	2.9600
predicted_ERA	5.3272
predicted_H	5.4260
predicted_HR	1.0230
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.9140
predicted_WHIP	1.3884

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	1.5160	3.4044	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.9600	2.9817	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3272	5.3272	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.4260	4.6531	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	1.0230	1.0105	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.9140	3.3345	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3884	1.3884	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	5
SO	2
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	94

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	10
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	7
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	64
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	607536
playerID	607536
playerName	Kyle Freeland
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 12

All-history rows before 20260515: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.167	1.000	-1.167	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.025	3.000	-0.925	-1.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	11.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.5454	0.2727	0.6364	0.0909
last_10	0.35	10	22.200	4.000	12.000	6.000	18.000	1.000	1.5882	0.7941	0.1765	0.5294	0.2647	0.7941	0.0441
season	0.20	12	27.100	4.000	14.000	7.000	24.000	1.000	1.3171	0.7683	0.1463	0.5122	0.2561	0.8780	0.0366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5960
predicted_ER	0.6210
predicted_ERA	3.0124
predicted_H	1.3490
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.5670
predicted_WHIP	1.0493

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5960	0.2668	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6210	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0124	3.0124	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3490	1.1562	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1760	0.0788	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	2.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5670	1.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0493	1.0493	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.32
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Juan Mejia (675848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 17

All-history rows before 20260515: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.294	0.000	-1.294	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.059	1.000	0.041	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.529	1.000	-0.529	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	10.000	1.000	3.0000	1.1667	0.3333	0.5000	0.6667	1.6667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	5.000	11.000	5.000	21.000	1.000	3.7500	1.3333	0.4167	0.9167	0.4167	1.7500	0.0833
season	0.20	17	20.100	10.000	22.000	9.000	26.000	2.000	4.4262	1.5246	0.4918	1.0820	0.4426	1.2787	0.0984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6000
predicted_ER	0.5790
predicted_ERA	3.9061
predicted_H	1.1470
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6720
predicted_WHIP	1.3098

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6000	0.2499	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5790	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9061	3.9061	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1470	0.4777	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1690	0.0704	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6720	1.2798	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3098	1.3098	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.43
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	675848
playerID	675848
playerName	Juan Mejia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 16

All-history rows before 20260515: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.688	1.000	0.312	0.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	0.812	1.000	3.188	3.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.500	2.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.975	0.200	0.025	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.938	1.000	-0.938	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	4.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	6.7500	2.2500	0.7500	1.3125	0.9375	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	11.000	16.000	8.000	10.000	1.000	9.9000	2.4000	1.1000	1.6000	0.8000	1.0000	0.1000
season	0.20	16	17.000	13.000	24.000	11.000	15.000	2.000	6.8824	2.0588	0.7647	1.4118	0.6471	0.8823	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5630
predicted_ER	0.6310
predicted_ERA	5.6817
predicted_H	1.1380
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9550
predicted_WHIP	1.7012

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5630	0.8261	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	0.6310	2.6594	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6817	5.6817	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.1380	2.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1010	0.6423	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9550	0.3800	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7012	1.7012	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	0
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.88
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Jaden Hill (677955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	1.000	-0.400	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	4.9091	1.0909	0.5454	0.8182	0.2727	1.0909	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	5.000	12.000	6.000	10.000	1.000	5.4000	2.1600	0.6000	1.4400	0.7200	1.2000	0.1200
season	0.20	18	15.000	6.000	15.000	9.000	16.000	1.000	3.6000	1.6000	0.4000	1.0000	0.6000	1.0667	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1940
predicted_ER	0.2250
predicted_ERA	4.4289
predicted_H	0.4530
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.4680
predicted_WHIP	1.4126

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1940	0.0748	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2250	0.0867	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4289	4.4289	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4530	0.1746	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.4680	0.1804	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4126	1.4126	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.60
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	677955
playerID	677955
playerName	Jaden Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

20260515_BAL@WAS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.52245, "home_win_probability": 0.52245, "away_win_probability": 0.47755000000000003, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 WAS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 WAS", "confidence": 0.52245, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 WAS", "winner": "WAS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 WAS", "winner": "WAS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	BAL 5 - 6 WAS	WAS	0.522	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	BAL 5 - 6 WAS	WAS	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away BAL	5-5	0.500	3.90	4.60	-7	1W	average	average
Home WAS	6-4	0.600	5.90	6.10	-2	1L	hot	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away BAL	20-24	0.455	-37	-0.841	True
Home WAS	21-23	0.477	-20	-0.455	True
Signal	-	-	0.386	0.420	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target BAL	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target WAS	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Player finalized BAL	33	9	5	0	1	2	9
Player finalized WAS	34	9	7	0	6	2	10
Player model fractional BAL	32.33	7.03	4.25	0.93	3.75	3.64	8.79
Player model fractional WAS	32.77	7.56	5.29	1.11	4.17	3.59	8.14
Simulation box BAL	37	10	5	4	5	4	10
Simulation box WAS	36	10	6	3	6	4	9

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away BAL	Starter	Shane Baz	4.20	3	4	6	2	5.22	1.46	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Dietrich Enns	1.10	0	2	1	0	3.05	1.27	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Rico Garcia	1	0	2	0	1	2.58	0.98	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Andrew Kittredge	0	3	0	3	0	6.84	1.71	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Anthony Nunez	1	0	1	0	1	3.83	1.31	True
Home WAS	Starter	Zack Littell	4	4	8	6	1	6.69	1.55	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Brad Lord	1.20	0	1	2	0	3.03	1.19	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Gus Varland	1	0	0	1	2	4.92	1.44	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Richard Lovelady	1	1	0	1	0	2.74	1.46	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	PJ Poulin	1.10	0	1	0	1	2.92	1.34	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: BAL

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2649

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.512	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.512	3.000	0.488	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.333	0.235	0.167
predicted_BB	0.977	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.977	1.000	0.023	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.930	1.000	1.070	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.023	0.000	1.977	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.426	0.500	0.174	0.100
predicted_R	0.651	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.651	1.000	0.349	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.279	0.000	1.721	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.333	1.623	1.667
predicted_SO	0.814	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.814	1.000	-0.814	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.326	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.512	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.977	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.651	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.814	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.291	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.433	-0.079
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.005
predicted_BB	1.019	0.042
predicted_H	0.775	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.030
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.046
predicted_R	0.646	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.315	-0.086
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.027
predicted_SO	0.842	0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.291	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.433	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.011
predicted_BB	1.018	-0.000
predicted_H	0.783	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.071	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.405	0.054
predicted_R	0.656	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.319	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.008
predicted_SO	0.843	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	0.2143	0.4762	0.2857	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000	0.5000	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	9.000	14.000	11.000	0.1379	0.4186	0.1724	0.1379	0.0000	0.0000	0.4828	0.3793
season	0.60	43	-	151.000	40.000	14.000	1.000	12.000	28.000	42.000	35.000	0.2649	0.4256	0.3775	0.2649	0.0066	0.0795	0.2782	0.2318

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2420
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3200
predicted_AVG	0.2313
predicted_BB	1.0790
predicted_H	0.7680
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.4171
predicted_R	0.6390
predicted_RBI	0.1920
predicted_SLG	0.3283
predicted_SO	0.8830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3260	0.2420	0.2915	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5120	3.3200	3.4331	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2313	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9770	1.0790	1.0189	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.7680	0.7751	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0260	0.0696	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.4171	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6510	0.6390	0.6461	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.1920	0.3145	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3283	0.3676	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8140	0.8830	0.8424	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Samuel Basallo (694212) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 30

All-history rows before 20260515: 30

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2655

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	4.000	1.233	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.500	-0.265	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.500	-0.325	-0.500
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.469	0.750	-0.469	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.767	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	0.042
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.017
predicted_BB	0.307	-0.026
predicted_H	0.910	0.120
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.012
predicted_R	0.519	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.418	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.029
predicted_SO	0.970	-0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.307	-0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.104	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.017
predicted_R	0.527	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.407	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.970	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.5263	0.3684	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	13.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	0.3250	0.3415	0.5000	0.3250	0.0000	0.1500	0.0250	0.2750
season	0.60	30	-	113.000	30.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	14.000	15.000	10.000	30.000	0.2655	0.3252	0.4690	0.2655	0.0442	0.1239	0.0885	0.2655

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3070
predicted_3B	0.0340
predicted_AB	3.8150
predicted_AVG	0.2874
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_H	1.0960
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_OBP	0.3360
predicted_R	0.5480
predicted_RBI	0.4450
predicted_SLG	0.4686
predicted_SO	0.9230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.3070	0.2420	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0340	0.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7670	3.8150	3.7858	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2874	0.2610	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2660	0.3067	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	1.0960	0.9101	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1050	0.1020	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3360	0.3172	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5480	0.5188	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4450	0.4177	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4686	0.4239	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9230	0.9698	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	694212
playerID	694212
playerName	Samuel Basallo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Adley Rutschman (668939) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 26

All-history rows before 20260515: 26

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2772

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.885	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.885	3.000	1.115	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.333	-0.077	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.077	1.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	1.000	0.769	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.250	-0.127	-0.050
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.846	3.000	0.154	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.535	1.333	0.265	-0.533
predicted_SO	0.615	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.615	0.000	1.385	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.885	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.269	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.615	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.885	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.250	-0.019
predicted_H	0.892	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.144	0.034
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.008
predicted_R	0.494	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.542	0.092
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.025
predicted_SO	0.663	0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.885	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.250	-0.000
predicted_H	0.902	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.041	0.000
predicted_HR	0.146	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.018
predicted_R	0.501	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.551	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000
predicted_SO	0.664	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.308)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.885

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.1500	0.1500	0.3500	0.1500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.2051	0.2558	0.4359	0.2051	0.0513	0.1538	0.0513	0.1795
season	0.60	26	-	101.000	28.000	8.000	6.000	22.000	13.000	7.000	16.000	0.2772	0.3273	0.5347	0.2772	0.0594	0.2178	0.0693	0.1584

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2620
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8860
predicted_AVG	0.2387
predicted_BB	0.2210
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_OBP	0.2835
predicted_R	0.4840
predicted_RBI	0.6880
predicted_SLG	0.4601
predicted_SO	0.7400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.2620	0.2902	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8850	3.8860	3.8854	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2387	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2690	0.2210	0.2504	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9280	0.8925	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1970	0.1437	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2835	0.2967	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4840	0.4938	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.6880	0.5422	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4601	0.4202	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6150	0.7400	0.6634	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	668939
playerID	668939
playerName	Adley Rutschman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 44

All-history rows before 20260515: 44

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2182

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	1.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.500	-0.018	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.477	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.477	0.000	-0.477	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	2.000	0.182	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.500	-0.110	-0.300
predicted_R	0.614	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.614	0.000	-0.614	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.523	1.000	-0.523	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.424	0.500	-0.224	-0.300
predicted_SO	1.045	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.045	1.000	1.955	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.477	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.614	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.045	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.767	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.413	-0.064
predicted_H	0.816	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.012
predicted_R	0.563	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.456	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.387	-0.008
predicted_SO	1.028	-0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.413	-0.000
predicted_H	0.824	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.126	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.003
predicted_R	0.572	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.463	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.375	-0.013
predicted_SO	1.029	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	2.000	10.000	0.2308	0.2683	0.4359	0.2308	0.0513	0.2051	0.0513	0.2564
season	0.60	44	-	165.000	36.000	10.000	8.000	23.000	27.000	21.000	46.000	0.2182	0.3102	0.4242	0.2182	0.0485	0.1394	0.1273	0.2788

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7910
predicted_AVG	0.2135
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_H	0.8090
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_OBP	0.2761
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.5070
predicted_SLG	0.3762
predicted_SO	1.0040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.1770	0.2065	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7910	3.7668	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2135	0.2315	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4770	0.3220	0.4135	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8090	0.8155	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1450	0.1243	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2761	0.2932	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6140	0.4900	0.5632	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5070	0.4556	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3762	0.3873	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0450	1.0040	1.0282	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1967

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	4.256	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.256	4.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.000	-0.197	0.000
predicted_BB	0.302	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.302	0.000	0.698	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.837	0.000	-0.837	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.253	0.000	-0.053	0.200
predicted_R	0.535	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.535	0.000	-0.535	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_SO	1.326	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.326	0.000	0.674	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	4.256	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.302	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.535	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.326	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.237	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.266	-0.036
predicted_H	0.921	-0.069
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.128	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.028
predicted_R	0.458	-0.077
predicted_RBI	0.460	-0.050
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.027
predicted_SO	1.217	-0.109

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	4.237	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.266	-0.000
predicted_H	0.931	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.131	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.011
predicted_R	0.465	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.467	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.009
predicted_SO	1.218	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.467)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.256

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	44.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	0.1591	0.1778	0.1818	0.1591	0.0000	0.0454	0.0227	0.2046
season	0.60	43	-	183.000	36.000	7.000	1.000	9.000	21.000	23.000	13.000	57.000	0.1967	0.2525	0.3934	0.1967	0.0492	0.1148	0.0710	0.3115

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	4.2110
predicted_AVG	0.1953
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_H	0.8220
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_OBP	0.2357
predicted_R	0.3480
predicted_RBI	0.3890
predicted_SLG	0.3298
predicted_SO	1.0620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.1620	0.1626	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2560	4.2110	4.2375	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1953	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3020	0.2140	0.2658	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	0.8220	0.9209	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1260	0.1284	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2357	0.2765	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5350	0.3480	0.4580	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.3890	0.4602	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3298	0.3682	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3260	1.0620	1.2174	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Tyler O'Neill (641933) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 17

All-history rows before 20260515: 17

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1765

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_BB	0.647	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.647	2.000	-0.647	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.500	-0.344	-0.500
predicted_R	0.647	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.647	1.000	-0.647	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_SO	0.941	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.941	2.000	0.059	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.647	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.647	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.941	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.086	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.621	-0.026
predicted_H	0.627	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.061	-
predicted_HR	0.072	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.005
predicted_R	0.614	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.346	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.354	-0.041
predicted_SO	0.959	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.086	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.620	-0.000
predicted_H	0.634	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.061	0.000
predicted_HR	0.074	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.028
predicted_R	0.624	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.351	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.304	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.960	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.1333	0.2778	0.2000	0.1333	0.0000	0.1333	0.2000	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	11.000	0.1379	0.3243	0.1724	0.1379	0.0000	0.0690	0.2759	0.3793
season	0.60	17	-	51.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	11.000	11.000	16.000	0.1765	0.3438	0.2549	0.1765	0.0196	0.1177	0.2157	0.3137

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1200
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2400
predicted_AVG	0.1868
predicted_BB	0.5730
predicted_H	0.6050
predicted_HBP	0.0610
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.3199
predicted_R	0.5550
predicted_RBI	0.3740
predicted_SLG	0.2807
predicted_SO	0.9920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.1200	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2400	3.0856	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1868	0.2236	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6470	0.5730	0.6206	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.6050	0.6275	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0610	0.0610	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0590	0.0725	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3199	0.3103	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6470	0.5550	0.6142	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3740	0.3457	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2807	0.3542	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9410	0.9920	0.9592	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	641933
playerID	641933
playerName	Tyler O'Neill
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Coby Mayo (691723) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 33

All-history rows before 20260515: 33

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1759

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	1.000	-0.121	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.273	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.273	4.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.500	0.157	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.303	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	0.000	0.697	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.576	2.000	0.424	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.246	0.500	0.254	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.324	0.750	0.009	-0.417
predicted_SO	1.091	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.091	0.000	-0.091	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.273	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.255	-0.018
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.304	0.001
predicted_H	0.657	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.108	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.013
predicted_R	0.349	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.071
predicted_SLG	0.387	-0.008
predicted_SO	1.083	-0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.255	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.304	-0.000
predicted_H	0.664	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.109	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.020
predicted_R	0.354	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.418	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.041
predicted_SO	1.084	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.2308	0.3333	0.5385	0.2308	0.0769	0.3077	0.1538	0.4615
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.3333	0.2000	0.0333	0.1333	0.0667	0.3333
season	0.60	33	-	108.000	19.000	4.000	4.000	15.000	11.000	10.000	36.000	0.1759	0.2458	0.3241	0.1759	0.0370	0.1389	0.0926	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2280
predicted_AVG	0.2023
predicted_BB	0.3050
predicted_H	0.6530
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.2725
predicted_R	0.3730
predicted_RBI	0.5230
predicted_SLG	0.3740
predicted_SO	1.0710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.1450	0.1304	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2730	3.2280	3.2554	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2023	0.2277	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.3050	0.3038	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.6530	0.6573	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1350	0.1076	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2725	0.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3730	0.3486	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.5230	0.4115	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3740	0.3868	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	1.0710	1.0832	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	691723
playerID	691723
playerName	Coby Mayo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Jeremiah Jackson (669236) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 35

All-history rows before 20260515: 35

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2403

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.086	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.686	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.686	4.000	-0.686	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.426	0.667
predicted_BB	0.086	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.086	0.000	0.914	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	0.000	1.114	2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.261	0.000	0.489	0.750
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.686	0.000	0.314	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.403	0.000	0.264	0.667
predicted_SO	0.829	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.829	1.000	0.171	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.686	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.086	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.829	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.696	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.109	0.023
predicted_H	0.738	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.026
predicted_R	0.270	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.423	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.370	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.827	-0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.696	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.109	0.000
predicted_H	0.746	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.104	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.225	-0.054
predicted_R	0.274	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.429	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.311	-0.059
predicted_SO	0.827	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.1579	0.1795	0.2632	0.1579	0.0263	0.1316	0.0263	0.2105
season	0.60	35	-	129.000	31.000	3.000	6.000	24.000	10.000	3.000	29.000	0.2403	0.2612	0.4031	0.2403	0.0465	0.1860	0.0233	0.2248

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0900
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7110
predicted_AVG	0.2064
predicted_BB	0.1430
predicted_H	0.7660
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.2390
predicted_R	0.2450
predicted_RBI	0.5030
predicted_SLG	0.3309
predicted_SO	0.8240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0860	0.0900	0.0876	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6860	3.7110	3.6959	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2064	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0860	0.1430	0.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7660	0.7382	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1220	0.1027	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2390	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.2450	0.2697	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.5030	0.4227	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3309	0.3696	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8290	0.8240	0.8270	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669236
playerID	669236
playerName	Jeremiah Jackson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Colton Cowser (681297) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 22

All-history rows before 20260515: 22

System season_avg: 0.1640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1642

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.045	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.045	4.000	0.955	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.750	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.164	0.000	0.586	0.750
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	2.500	3.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	0.500	0.750
predicted_R	0.273	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.227	0.000	0.773	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.194	0.000	1.306	1.500
predicted_SO	1.182	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.182	2.000	-1.182	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.045	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.182	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	0.005
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.187	0.142
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.356	-0.008
predicted_H	0.617	-0.033
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.022
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.024
predicted_R	0.273	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.323	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.332	-0.063
predicted_SO	1.197	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.187	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.356	-0.000
predicted_H	0.624	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.005
predicted_R	0.277	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.328	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.292	-0.040
predicted_SO	1.198	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	0.0526	0.1429	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.4210
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	16.000	0.1143	0.1842	0.1429	0.1143	0.0571	0.0857	0.4571
season	0.60	22	-	67.000	11.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	8.000	26.000	0.1642	0.2500	0.1940	0.1642	0.0746	0.1194	0.3881

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1040
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4310
predicted_AVG	0.1636
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	0.5610
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.2409
predicted_R	0.2730
predicted_RBI	0.3110
predicted_SLG	0.2231
predicted_SO	1.2240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1040	0.0958	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0450	3.4310	3.1867	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1636	0.2145	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.3430	0.3563	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.5610	0.6173	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0310	0.0683	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2409	0.2815	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.2730	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3110	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2231	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1820	1.2240	1.1974	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.164

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	681297
playerID	681297
playerName	Colton Cowser
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Shane Baz (669358) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.375	3.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	3.375	5.000	-0.375	-2.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	6.250	5.000	-0.250	1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.250	4.200	-1.050	0.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	4.750	5.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.100	19.000	30.000	14.000	25.000	4.000	6.0353	1.5529	0.6706	1.0588	0.4941	0.8823	0.1412
last_10	0.35	8	44.100	27.000	50.000	19.000	38.000	5.000	5.4812	1.5564	0.6090	1.1278	0.4286	0.8571	0.1128
season	0.20	8	44.100	27.000	50.000	19.000	38.000	5.000	5.4812	1.5564	0.6090	1.1278	0.4286	0.8571	0.1128

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.4810
predicted_ER	3.2860
predicted_ERA	5.2194
predicted_H	5.8160
predicted_HR	0.7420
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.1400
predicted_WHIP	1.4642

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.4810	2.2345	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	3.2860	3.1394	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2194	5.2194	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.8160	5.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.7420	1.3867	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.1400	4.0433	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4642	1.4642	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	4
HR	2
BF	24
Pitches	108

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	5.48
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	100
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669358
playerID	669358
playerName	Shane Baz
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dietrich Enns (608650) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 9

All-history rows before 20260515: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.089	1.000	0.011	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.222	0.000	0.778	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	0.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.0000	1.1053	0.0000	0.6316	0.4737	0.4737
last_10	0.35	9	11.200	2.000	7.000	8.000	11.000	1.5429	1.2857	0.1714	0.6000	0.6857	0.9429
season	0.20	9	11.200	2.000	7.000	8.000	11.000	1.5429	1.2857	0.1714	0.6000	0.6857	0.9429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5820
predicted_ER	0.4520
predicted_ERA	3.0535
predicted_H	1.1170
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1500
predicted_WHIP	1.2742

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5820	0.2104	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4520	0.1634	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0535	3.0535	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1170	1.0423	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1180	0.0426	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1500	1.6928	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2742	1.2742	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	608650
playerID	608650
playerName	Dietrich Enns
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.880	1.000	0.120	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.100	2.000	0.900	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000	0.0000	0.5625	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	1.0000	0.5556	0.1111	0.1111	0.4444	1.3333	0.1111
season	0.20	20	19.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	22.000	1.000	0.4737	0.4211	0.0526	0.0526	0.3684	1.1579	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4250
predicted_ER	0.2870
predicted_ERA	2.5811
predicted_H	0.5560
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1010
predicted_WHIP	0.9810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4250	0.7646	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2870	0.1175	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5811	2.5811	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5560	0.2276	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1010	1.6320	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9810	0.9810	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.47
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Andrew Kittredge (552640) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.625	0.000	1.375	3.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.688	1.000	-0.688	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	8.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	19.6364	3.5455	2.1818	3.0000	0.5454	0.8182	0.2727
last_10	0.35	8	6.200	8.000	13.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.9500	0.4500	1.0500	0.1500
season	0.20	8	6.200	8.000	13.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.9500	0.4500	1.0500	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1650
predicted_ER	0.3070
predicted_ERA	6.8430
predicted_H	0.5250
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3810
predicted_WHIP	1.7105

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1650	0.0521	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3070	2.1489	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.8430	6.8430	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.5250	2.2178	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0610	0.7032	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3810	0.8044	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7105	1.7105	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	552640
playerID	552640
playerName	Andrew Kittredge
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Anthony Nunez (689296) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.895	1.000	-0.895	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.979	1.000	0.021	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	1.000	-0.158	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	3.1765	1.4118	0.3529	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	5.000	11.000	4.000	11.000	3.000	3.9706	1.3235	0.4412	0.9706	0.3529	0.9706	0.2647
season	0.20	18	20.000	6.000	15.000	5.000	22.000	4.000	2.7000	1.0000	0.3000	0.7500	0.2500	1.1000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2260
predicted_ER	0.2670
predicted_ERA	3.8252
predicted_H	0.5980
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5800
predicted_WHIP	1.3108

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2260	0.6790	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2670	0.1107	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8252	3.8252	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5980	0.8333	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1260	0.0523	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5800	0.8258	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3108	1.3108	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.05
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	689296
playerID	689296
playerName	Anthony Nunez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Home Team: WAS

Luis Garcia (677651) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 0

All-history rows before 20260515: 0

System season_avg: 0.2438

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2438

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.539	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.392	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.875	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.146	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.457	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.516	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.429	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.943	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.014	-
predicted_AB	3.539	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.392	-
predicted_H	0.875	-
predicted_HR	0.146	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.516	-
predicted_SLG	0.429	-
predicted_SO	0.943	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	0.001
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000
predicted_AB	3.579	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.375	-0.017
predicted_H	0.883	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.142	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.003
predicted_R	0.463	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.509	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.424	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.929	-0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	0.000
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000
predicted_AB	3.579	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.005
predicted_BB	0.376	0.001
predicted_H	0.898	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.145	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.003
predicted_R	0.476	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.523	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.429	0.006
predicted_SO	0.926	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.60	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7960
predicted_AVG	0.2438
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3054
predicted_R	0.4950
predicted_RBI	0.4720
predicted_SLG	0.3945
predicted_SO	0.8550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1800	0.1766	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0140	0.0140	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5390	3.7960	3.5795	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2438	0.2465	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3920	0.2840	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8750	0.9260	0.8830	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1460	0.1210	0.1421	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3054	0.3194	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.4950	0.4630	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5160	0.4720	0.5091	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4290	0.3945	0.4236	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9430	0.8550	0.9291	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Curtis Mead (678554) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 17

All-history rows before 20260515: 17

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2742

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.353	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.647	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.647	3.000	0.353	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.333	0.226	0.167
predicted_BB	0.588	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.588	1.000	0.412	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	1.000	-0.059	-1.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.600	0.208	0.000
predicted_R	0.706	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.706	1.000	0.294	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.516	0.333	0.234	0.417
predicted_SO	0.706	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.706	2.000	1.294	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.353	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.647	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.588	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.706	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.706	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.341	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.632	-0.015
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.010
predicted_BB	0.594	0.006
predicted_H	0.880	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.114	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.031
predicted_R	0.690	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.476	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.026
predicted_SO	0.727	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.341	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.632	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.596	0.002
predicted_H	0.895	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.120	0.000
predicted_HR	0.116	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.017
predicted_R	0.709	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.489	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.017
predicted_SO	0.725	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	0.3125	0.5000	0.4375	0.3125	0.0000	0.1875	0.3125	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	0.2857	0.4444	0.4857	0.2857	0.0286	0.1429	0.2286	0.2000
season	0.60	17	-	62.000	17.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	12.000	10.000	12.000	0.2742	0.3919	0.5161	0.2742	0.0484	0.1774	0.1613	0.1935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3210
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6060
predicted_AVG	0.2725
predicted_BB	0.6040
predicted_H	0.9830
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.3898
predicted_R	0.6620
predicted_RBI	0.5720
predicted_SLG	0.4655
predicted_SO	0.7630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3530	0.3210	0.3413	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6470	3.6060	3.6320	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2725	0.2544	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5880	0.6040	0.5938	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9830	0.8796	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1220	0.1144	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3898	0.3360	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7060	0.6620	0.6899	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5720	0.4756	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4655	0.4208	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7060	0.7630	0.7268	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B-2B-3B
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	678554
playerID	678554
playerName	Curtis Mead
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 44

All-history rows before 20260515: 44

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2335

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.795	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.795	3.000	0.205	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.516	0.750
predicted_BB	0.841	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.841	0.000	0.159	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	0.000	2.114	3.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.800	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.000	0.418	0.800
predicted_R	0.818	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.818	0.000	0.182	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.659	0.000	0.341	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.515	0.000	0.985	1.500
predicted_SO	1.500	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	2.000	-1.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.795	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.841	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.818	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.269	0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.774	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.777	-0.064
predicted_H	0.872	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.093	-
predicted_HR	0.179	0.059
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.023
predicted_R	0.769	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.496	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.052
predicted_SO	1.430	-0.070

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.269	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.774	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.779	0.002
predicted_H	0.887	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.093	0.000
predicted_HR	0.183	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.038
predicted_R	0.790	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.509	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.005
predicted_SO	1.425	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.6667	0.2222	0.1111	0.1111	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	13.000	0.2162	0.3409	0.4865	0.2162	0.0541	0.1351	0.1622	0.3513
season	0.60	44	-	167.000	39.000	11.000	12.000	29.000	36.000	37.000	66.000	0.2335	0.3816	0.5150	0.2335	0.0719	0.1736	0.2216	0.3952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7450
predicted_AVG	0.2298
predicted_BB	0.6850
predicted_H	0.8610
predicted_HBP	0.0930
predicted_HR	0.2640
predicted_OBP	0.3617
predicted_R	0.7000
predicted_RBI	0.5610
predicted_SLG	0.5213
predicted_SO	1.3300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2950	0.2686	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7950	3.7450	3.7744	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2298	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8410	0.6850	0.7766	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8610	0.8722	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0930	0.0930	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.2640	0.1795	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3617	0.3284	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8180	0.7000	0.7693	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5610	0.4958	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5213	0.4472	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.3300	1.4298	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2941

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.643	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.643	2.000	0.357	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.000	-0.044	0.250
predicted_BB	0.476	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.476	1.000	0.524	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.071	0.000	-0.071	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	0.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.333	0.008	0.067
predicted_R	0.595	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.595	0.000	0.405	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.857	0.000	2.143	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.536	0.000	0.464	1.000
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.643	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.476	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.595	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.027
predicted_3B	0.040	0.016
predicted_AB	3.702	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.018
predicted_BB	0.449	-0.027
predicted_H	0.914	0.124
predicted_HBP	0.081	-
predicted_HR	0.120	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.026
predicted_R	0.604	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.543	0.134
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.046
predicted_SO	0.897	0.064

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.702	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.450	0.001
predicted_H	0.930	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.081	0.000
predicted_HR	0.122	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.002
predicted_R	0.620	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.558	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.430	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.894	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.5000	0.3000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	8.000	3.000	12.000	0.3000	0.3488	0.5250	0.3000	0.0250	0.2250	0.0750	0.3000
season	0.60	42	-	153.000	45.000	8.000	1.000	9.000	36.000	25.000	20.000	35.000	0.2941	0.3923	0.5359	0.2941	0.0588	0.2353	0.1307	0.2288

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2570
predicted_3B	0.0630
predicted_AB	3.7870
predicted_AVG	0.2890
predicted_BB	0.4090
predicted_H	1.0940
predicted_HBP	0.0810
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3676
predicted_R	0.6160
predicted_RBI	0.7370
predicted_SLG	0.5078
predicted_SO	0.9900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.2570	0.2174	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0630	0.0399	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6430	3.7870	3.7018	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2890	0.2624	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4760	0.4090	0.4486	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	1.0940	0.9142	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0810	0.0810	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1480	0.1196	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3676	0.3306	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5950	0.6160	0.6036	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.7370	0.5435	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5078	0.4411	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.9900	0.8971	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	-0.256
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.977	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.977	4.000	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.000	-0.263
predicted_BB	0.372	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.372	0.000	-0.372
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.070	0.000	-0.070
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.047	0.000	-1.047
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.140	0.000	-0.140
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.000	-0.326
predicted_R	0.628	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.628	0.000	-0.628
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	0.000	-0.512
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.433	0.000	-0.433
predicted_SO	0.791	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.791	1.000	0.209

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.977	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.372	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.628	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.791	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.942	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.020
predicted_BB	0.336	-0.036
predicted_H	0.961	0.121
predicted_HBP	0.035	-
predicted_HR	0.165	0.055
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.015
predicted_R	0.624	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.559	0.129
predicted_SLG	0.460	0.065
predicted_SO	0.775	-0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.942	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.337	0.001
predicted_H	0.977	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.035	0.000
predicted_HR	0.168	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.013
predicted_R	0.641	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.574	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.444	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.773	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.977

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.9500	0.4000	0.1500	0.4000	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	11.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	3.000	7.000	0.3056	0.3571	0.6389	0.3056	0.0833	0.2222	0.0833	0.1944
season	0.60	43	-	171.000	45.000	11.000	6.000	22.000	27.000	16.000	34.000	0.2632	0.3263	0.4327	0.2632	0.0351	0.1286	0.0936	0.1988

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2780
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8910
predicted_AVG	0.2915
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	1.1340
predicted_HBP	0.0350
predicted_HR	0.2450
predicted_OBP	0.3415
predicted_R	0.6190
predicted_RBI	0.7440
predicted_SLG	0.5524
predicted_SO	0.7520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2780	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9770	3.8910	3.9417	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2915	0.2635	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3720	0.2840	0.3359	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.1340	0.9606	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0350	0.0350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2450	0.1654	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3415	0.3200	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6280	0.6190	0.6243	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.7440	0.5588	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5524	0.4596	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7910	0.7520	0.7750	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brady House (691781) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 35

All-history rows before 20260515: 35

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2083

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.114	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.114	4.000	-1.114	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.314	0.000	0.686	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.265	0.000	-0.015	0.250
predicted_R	0.486	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SO	1.257	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.257	2.000	-1.257	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.114	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.314	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.257	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.064	-0.050
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.303	-0.011
predicted_H	0.834	-0.046
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.023
predicted_R	0.496	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.503	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.385	-0.011
predicted_SO	1.201	-0.056

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.064	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.304	0.001
predicted_H	0.849	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.138	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.018
predicted_R	0.509	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.517	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.354	-0.030
predicted_SO	1.197	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.114

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.1000	0.1429	0.3000	0.1000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.1842	0.2439	0.3947	0.1842	0.0526	0.1842	0.0790	0.2368
season	0.60	35	-	144.000	30.000	6.000	6.000	20.000	17.000	11.000	44.000	0.2083	0.2645	0.3750	0.2083	0.0417	0.1389	0.0764	0.3056

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9910
predicted_AVG	0.1919
predicted_BB	0.2880
predicted_H	0.7660
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_OBP	0.2473
predicted_R	0.5100
predicted_RBI	0.5830
predicted_SLG	0.3689
predicted_SO	1.1180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1830	0.1758	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1140	3.9910	4.0645	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1919	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3140	0.2880	0.3035	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.7660	0.8341	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1730	0.1354	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2473	0.2818	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.5100	0.4957	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5830	0.5035	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3689	0.3845	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2570	1.1180	1.2010	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	691781
playerID	691781
playerName	Brady House
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jorbit Vivas (678391) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 24

All-history rows before 20260515: 24

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2639

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.500	-0.014	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.792	1.000	0.208	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.500	-0.091	-0.250
predicted_R	0.542	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.542	0.000	0.458	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.319	1.000	-0.069	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.458	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.458	0.000	0.542	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.542	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.458	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.079	0.079
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.225	-0.025
predicted_H	0.688	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.066	-
predicted_HR	0.061	-0.019
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.008
predicted_R	0.506	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.275	-0.055
predicted_SLG	0.367	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.517	0.059

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.079	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.225	0.001
predicted_H	0.700	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.066	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.280	-0.017
predicted_R	0.520	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.282	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.516	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.2143	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2188	0.2188	0.2812	0.2188	0.0312	0.0000	0.1562
season	0.60	24	-	72.000	19.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	6.000	11.000	0.2639	0.3415	0.3194	0.2639	0.0417	0.0833	0.1528

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2130
predicted_AVG	0.2342
predicted_BB	0.1820
predicted_H	0.7530
predicted_HBP	0.0660
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.2848
predicted_R	0.4450
predicted_RBI	0.1810
predicted_SLG	0.3185
predicted_SO	0.6180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1820	0.1726	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2130	3.0792	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2342	0.2404	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.1820	0.2247	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7530	0.6883	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0660	0.0660	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0280	0.0607	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2848	0.2975	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5420	0.4450	0.5060	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.1810	0.2746	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3185	0.3666	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4580	0.6180	0.5175	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-2B
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	678391
playerID	678391
playerName	Jorbit Vivas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	WAS
teamID	30

Drew Millas (686452) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 21

All-history rows before 20260515: 21

System season_avg: 0.1850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1846

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.095	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.095	3.000	0.905	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.185	0.333	-0.185	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.254	0.333	-0.254	-0.333
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.277	0.333	-0.277	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.095	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.005
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.161	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.288	0.003
predicted_H	0.652	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.086	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.008
predicted_R	0.467	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.337	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.996	-0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.161	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.289	0.001
predicted_H	0.663	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.088	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.021
predicted_R	0.479	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.346	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.040
predicted_SO	0.993	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2667	0.3529	0.5333	0.2667	0.0667	0.2000	0.1333	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	11.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.3333	0.2000	0.0333	0.1000	0.0667	0.3667
season	0.60	21	-	65.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	9.000	6.000	21.000	0.1846	0.2535	0.2769	0.1846	0.0154	0.0769	0.0923	0.3231

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2770
predicted_AVG	0.2159
predicted_BB	0.2930
predicted_H	0.7070
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.2824
predicted_R	0.5330
predicted_RBI	0.3660
predicted_SLG	0.3558
predicted_SO	0.9880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1560	0.1477	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0950	3.2770	3.1611	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2159	0.2338	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2930	0.2885	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7070	0.6516	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0980	0.0865	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2824	0.2968	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.5330	0.4668	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3660	0.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3558	0.3808	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9880	0.9956	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.185

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	686452
playerID	686452
playerName	Drew Millas
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jacob Young (696285) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 38

All-history rows before 20260515: 38

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2138

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.816	4.000	0.184	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.036	0.250
predicted_BB	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.816	0.000	0.184	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.265	0.000	-0.015	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.303	0.000	-0.053	0.250
predicted_SO	0.711	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.711	0.000	0.289	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.816	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.211	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.711	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.833	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.234	0.023
predicted_H	0.742	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.091	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.021
predicted_R	0.526	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.358	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.693	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.235	0.001
predicted_H	0.755	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.092	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.243	-0.040
predicted_R	0.541	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.368	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.295	-0.051
predicted_SO	0.691	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.816

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.1000	0.1818	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	6.000	0.1538	0.2326	0.2308	0.1538	0.0256	0.0513	0.0769	0.1538
season	0.60	38	-	145.000	31.000	4.000	3.000	16.000	19.000	8.000	27.000	0.2138	0.2645	0.3034	0.2138	0.0207	0.1103	0.0552	0.1862

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8580
predicted_AVG	0.1895
predicted_BB	0.2680
predicted_H	0.7310
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_OBP	0.2519
predicted_R	0.5650
predicted_RBI	0.3250
predicted_SLG	0.2719
predicted_SO	0.6660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.0830	0.0961	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8160	3.8580	3.8329	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1895	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2110	0.2680	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7310	0.7424	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0770	0.0907	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2519	0.2836	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5650	0.5262	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3250	0.3579	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2719	0.3454	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7110	0.6660	0.6929	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	696285
playerID	696285
playerName	Jacob Young
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Zack Littell (641793) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.625	1.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	3.500	2.000	0.500	2.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	5.625	5.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.425	4.000	-0.425	0.000
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_SO	2.125	0.000	5.875	8.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	21.100	21.000	29.000	8.000	7.000	9.000	8.8594	1.7344	0.9844	1.3594	0.3750	0.3281	0.4219
last_10	0.35	8	36.100	28.000	45.000	13.000	17.000	14.000	6.9358	1.5963	0.7706	1.2385	0.3578	0.4679	0.3853
season	0.20	8	36.100	28.000	45.000	13.000	17.000	14.000	6.9358	1.5963	0.7706	1.2385	0.3578	0.4679	0.3853

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6930
predicted_ER	3.3650
predicted_ERA	6.6892
predicted_H	5.3150
predicted_HR	1.3680
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	2.7080
predicted_WHIP	1.5482

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.6930	1.3378	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	3.3650	3.1779	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.6892	6.6892	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.3150	5.1536	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	3.0000	1.3680	2.2044	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	2.7080	5.4201	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5482	1.5482	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	6
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	8
HR	3
BF	19
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	6.94
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	69
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	41
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	641793
playerID	641793
playerName	Zack Littell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 13

All-history rows before 20260515: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.938	2.200	-0.738	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.615	3.000	-0.615	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	1.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.9310	0.2069	0.8276	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	20.200	6.000	16.000	4.000	17.000	2.000	2.6129	0.9677	0.2903	0.7742	0.1935	0.8226	0.0968
season	0.20	13	28.000	10.000	26.000	6.000	21.000	3.000	3.2143	1.1429	0.3571	0.9286	0.2143	0.7500	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4850
predicted_ER	0.5660
predicted_ERA	3.0265
predicted_H	1.5260
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4840
predicted_WHIP	1.1934

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4850	0.2183	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5660	0.2548	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0265	3.0265	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.5260	1.7866	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1520	0.0684	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4840	1.2179	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1934	1.1934	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	33

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	36
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 17

All-history rows before 20260515: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	0.000	1.706	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.118	1.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.776	1.000	0.224	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.8571	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	5.000	13.000	2.000	10.000	0.000	4.8214	1.6071	0.5357	1.3929	0.2143	1.0714	0.0000
season	0.20	17	16.000	8.000	19.000	5.000	17.000	1.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.1875	0.3125	1.0625	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3620
predicted_ER	0.5470
predicted_ERA	4.9205
predicted_H	1.0810
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9650
predicted_WHIP	1.4424

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3620	1.3582	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5470	0.8225	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9205	4.9205	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0810	1.6399	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0840	0.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9650	0.3781	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4424	1.4424	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 10

All-history rows before 20260515: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.900	1.000	-0.900	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.880	1.000	0.120	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.100	0.000	-1.100	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.6000	0.0000	0.8000	0.8000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	9.000	9.000	11.000	0.000	0.8438	1.6875	0.0938	0.8438	0.8438	1.0312	0.0000
season	0.20	16	18.000	4.000	17.000	13.000	17.000	1.000	2.0000	1.6667	0.2222	0.9444	0.7222	0.9444	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5560
predicted_ER	0.3040
predicted_ERA	2.7352
predicted_H	0.9000
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9760
predicted_WHIP	1.4555

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5560	0.2245	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3040	0.7189	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7352	2.7352	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9000	0.9596	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0800	0.6285	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9760	0.3941	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4555	1.4555	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 21

All-history rows before 20260515: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.762	1.000	-0.762	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.786	1.000	0.314	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	0.6429	0.8571	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	0.000	1.9286	1.1786	0.2143	0.6429	0.5357	0.8571	0.0000
season	0.20	21	20.000	7.000	16.000	12.000	15.000	3.000	3.1500	1.4000	0.3500	0.8000	0.6000	0.7500	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4230
predicted_ER	0.2640
predicted_ERA	2.9150
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7710
predicted_WHIP	1.3413

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4230	0.7607	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2640	0.1095	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9150	2.9150	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6690	0.2774	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0690	0.0286	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7710	0.9050	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3413	1.3413	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.15
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

20260515_BOS@ATL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.559541, "home_win_probability": 0.559541, "away_win_probability": 0.44045900000000004, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 1 - 4 ATL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 1 - 4 ATL", "confidence": 0.559541, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 1 - 4 ATL", "winner": "ATL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 1 - 4 ATL", "winner": "ATL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	BOS 1 - 4 ATL	ATL	0.560	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	BOS 1 - 4 ATL	ATL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away BOS	5-5	0.500	3.20	2.80	4	1L	cold	strong
Home ATL	6-4	0.600	4.30	2.80	15	1L	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away BOS	18-25	0.419	-13	-0.302	True
Home ATL	30-14	0.682	91	2.068	True
Signal	-	-	2.370	2.765	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target BOS	-	-	1	-	-	-	-
Game target ATL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized BOS	33	9	1	0	0	1	8
Player finalized ATL	33	9	4	0	5	0	9
Player model fractional BOS	32.62	6.64	3.20	0.82	3.05	2.51	7.67
Player model fractional ATL	31.64	7.39	4.08	1.06	4.06	2.38	7.20
Simulation box BOS	30	3	1	1	1	2	7
Simulation box ATL	33	9	4	1	4	1	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away BOS	Starter	Connelly Early	5.20	2	6	6	1	3.67	1.20	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Aroldis Chapman	2	1	1	1	0	2.76	1.16	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Garrett Whitlock	0.10	1	1	2	0	3.86	1.13	True
Home ATL	Starter	Spencer Strider	4.20	0	5	2	1	3.82	1.31	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Dylan Lee	1	0	1	0	1	2.51	0.83	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Raisel Iglesias	1	0	0	0	0	2.79	1.12	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Robert Suarez	1	0	0	0	0	2.49	1.19	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Tyler Kinley	1.10	1	1	1	0	5.73	1.53	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: BOS

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.3100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3101

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3100

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.762	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.762	4.000	-0.762	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.310	0.500	0.023	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.476	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	2.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.500	0.115	0.000
predicted_R	0.476	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.476	0.000	0.524	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	1.000	0.548	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.475	0.500	0.859	0.833
predicted_SO	0.786	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	0.000	0.214	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.762	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.476	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.476	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.748	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.030
predicted_BB	0.468	-0.008
predicted_H	0.979	0.139
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.034
predicted_R	0.474	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.429	0.034
predicted_SO	0.784	-0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.748	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.456	-0.012
predicted_H	0.903	-0.076
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.118	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.016
predicted_R	0.411	-0.062
predicted_RBI	0.382	-0.058
predicted_SLG	0.380	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.805	0.021

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.3889	0.4500	0.5556	0.3889	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	12.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	11.000	0.3243	0.4091	0.4865	0.3243	0.0541	0.1351	0.1622	0.2973
season	0.60	42	-	158.000	49.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	20.000	20.000	33.000	0.3101	0.3855	0.4747	0.3101	0.0380	0.1202	0.1266	0.2089

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0980
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7280
predicted_AVG	0.3165
predicted_BB	0.4570
predicted_H	1.1800
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_OBP	0.3891
predicted_R	0.4700
predicted_RBI	0.4540
predicted_SLG	0.4791
predicted_SO	0.7820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0980	0.1246	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7620	3.7280	3.7481	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3165	0.2736	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4760	0.4570	0.4682	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.1800	0.9787	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1600	0.1304	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3891	0.3393	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4760	0.4700	0.4736	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4540	0.4398	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4791	0.4293	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.7820	0.7844	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Mickey Gasper (681508) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 3

All-history rows before 20260515: 3

System season_avg: 0.4550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4545

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.4550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.455	0.333	-0.455	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.667	1.000	-1.667	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.500	-0.500	-0.500
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.636	0.333	-0.636	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.333	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.667	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.584	-0.083
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.689	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.015
predicted_BB	0.049	0.049
predicted_H	0.898	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.104	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.014
predicted_R	0.361	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.423	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.016
predicted_SO	0.422	0.089

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.584	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.689	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.047	-0.001
predicted_H	0.828	-0.070
predicted_HBP	0.120	0.000
predicted_HR	0.095	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.234	-0.084
predicted_R	0.313	-0.047
predicted_RBI	0.367	-0.055
predicted_SLG	0.461	0.050
predicted_SO	0.433	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	11.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.4545	0.5000	0.6364	0.4546	0.0909	0.0909
last_10	0.20	3	-	11.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.4545	0.5000	0.6364	0.4546	0.0909	0.0909
season	0.60	3	-	11.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.4545	0.5000	0.6364	0.4546	0.0909	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3220
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.7590
predicted_AVG	0.3040
predicted_BB	0.2010
predicted_H	1.1430
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.3610
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.4310
predicted_SLG	0.4636
predicted_SO	0.7030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.6670	0.3220	0.5838	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.7590	3.6892	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3040	0.2585	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2010	0.0485	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.1430	0.8979	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0860	0.1042	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3610	0.3185	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4480	0.3607	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4310	0.4227	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4636	0.4115	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.7030	0.4222	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.455

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	681508
playerID	681508
playerName	Mickey Gasper
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 36

All-history rows before 20260515: 36

System season_avg: 0.1800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1800

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.167	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.167	5.000	-1.167	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.180	0.000	-0.180	0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.236	0.000	0.014	0.250
predicted_R	0.528	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SO	1.139	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.139	1.000	-1.139	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.528	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.139	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.175	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.255	-0.023
predicted_H	0.875	-0.095
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.122	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.270	-0.035
predicted_R	0.477	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.460	-0.040
predicted_SLG	0.351	-0.044
predicted_SO	1.128	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.175	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.249	-0.007
predicted_H	0.807	-0.068
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.111	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.239	-0.032
predicted_R	0.415	-0.062
predicted_RBI	0.399	-0.060
predicted_SLG	0.310	-0.041
predicted_SO	1.158	0.030

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.167

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2273
last_10	0.20	10	-	44.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	14.000	0.1818	0.2174	0.3409	0.1818	0.0454	0.0909	0.0454	0.3182
season	0.60	36	-	150.000	27.000	6.000	4.000	18.000	19.000	10.000	41.000	0.1800	0.2360	0.3000	0.1800	0.0267	0.1200	0.0667	0.2733

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1870
predicted_AVG	0.1753
predicted_BB	0.2220
predicted_H	0.7340
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.2193
predicted_R	0.4020
predicted_RBI	0.4000
predicted_SLG	0.2865
predicted_SO	1.1120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1320	0.1529	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1670	4.1870	4.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1753	0.2162	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.2220	0.2554	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.7340	0.8746	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1100	0.1219	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2193	0.2704	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5280	0.4020	0.4771	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.4000	0.4596	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2865	0.3512	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1390	1.1120	1.1281	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Andruw Monasterio (655316) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 13

All-history rows before 20260515: 13

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2400

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.385	2.000	-0.385	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.846	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.846	4.000	-0.846	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.500	0.093	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	2.000	0.077	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.500	0.024	-0.167
predicted_R	0.615	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.615	1.000	-0.615	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.400	1.000	-0.067	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.769	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	1.000	-0.769	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.385	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.846	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.615	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.361	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.831	-0.015
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.356	-0.029
predicted_H	0.856	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.101	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.003
predicted_R	0.599	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.792	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.361	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.831	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.347	-0.009
predicted_H	0.790	-0.066
predicted_HBP	0.011	0.000
predicted_HR	0.092	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.030
predicted_R	0.520	-0.079
predicted_RBI	0.382	-0.058
predicted_SLG	0.373	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.813	0.021

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.846

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.3333	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	0.2308	0.2683	0.4103	0.2308	0.0256	0.1538	0.0513	0.2051
season	0.60	13	-	50.000	12.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	5.000	10.000	0.2400	0.3091	0.4000	0.2400	0.0200	0.1400	0.1000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3160
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.8040
predicted_AVG	0.2379
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_H	0.9050
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.2966
predicted_R	0.5690
predicted_RBI	0.4770
predicted_SLG	0.3908
predicted_SO	0.8360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3850	0.3160	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8460	3.8040	3.8314	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2379	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.3010	0.3559	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9050	0.8560	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0850	0.1013	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2966	0.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6150	0.5690	0.5990	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4770	0.4398	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3908	0.3935	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.8360	0.7922	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	655316
playerID	655316
playerName	Andruw Monasterio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BOS
teamID	4

Willson Contreras (575929) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2517

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2520

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.575	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.575	4.000	0.425	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.250	-0.252	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	1.000	-0.900	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.250	-0.364	-0.250
predicted_R	0.475	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.575	0.000	-0.575	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.455	0.500	-0.455	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.200	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	0.000	-1.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.575	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.475	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.578	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.502	0.002
predicted_H	0.787	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.111	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.010
predicted_R	0.429	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.419	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.005
predicted_SO	1.181	-0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.578	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.489	-0.013
predicted_H	0.726	-0.061
predicted_HBP	0.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.104	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.016
predicted_R	0.373	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.364	-0.055
predicted_SLG	0.330	-0.060
predicted_SO	1.212	0.031

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	0.1176	0.2381	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	12.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.3611	0.2222	0.0278	0.0833	0.1667	0.3333
season	0.60	40	-	143.000	36.000	5.000	8.000	23.000	19.000	20.000	48.000	0.2517	0.3642	0.4545	0.2517	0.0559	0.1608	0.1399	0.3357

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5820
predicted_AVG	0.2227
predicted_BB	0.5050
predicted_H	0.7980
predicted_HBP	0.1110
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.3287
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.4470
predicted_SLG	0.3823
predicted_SO	1.1530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1590	0.1388	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5750	3.5820	3.5778	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2227	0.2353	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5050	0.5020	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.7980	0.7873	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1110	0.1110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1360	0.1146	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3287	0.3146	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4750	0.3630	0.4294	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4470	0.4191	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3823	0.3898	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.1530	1.1809	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	575929
playerID	575929
playerName	Willson Contreras
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Carlos Narváez (665966) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 26

All-history rows before 20260515: 26

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2169

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	1.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.192	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.192	3.000	-1.192	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.333	0.283	0.167
predicted_BB	0.192	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.192	0.000	0.808	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.692	1.000	0.308	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.667	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.333	0.389	0.333
predicted_R	0.346	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.346	0.000	-0.346	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.337	0.667	0.163	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.923	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	1.000	0.077	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.192	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.192	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.346	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.205	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.222	0.030
predicted_H	0.650	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.148	-
predicted_HR	0.079	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.003
predicted_R	0.367	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.269	-0.061
predicted_SLG	0.372	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.878	-0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.205	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	-0.043
predicted_BB	0.216	-0.006
predicted_H	0.599	-0.050
predicted_HBP	0.148	0.000
predicted_HR	0.072	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.238	-0.064
predicted_R	0.319	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.234	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.067
predicted_SO	0.901	0.023

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.1538	0.3529	0.2308	0.1538	0.0000	0.0000	0.1538	0.1538
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.3333	0.1667	0.0333	0.0333	0.1000	0.2667
season	0.60	26	-	83.000	18.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	5.000	24.000	0.2169	0.2778	0.3373	0.2169	0.0241	0.0361	0.0602	0.2892

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2260
predicted_AVG	0.2066
predicted_BB	0.2710
predicted_H	0.6660
predicted_HBP	0.1480
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_OBP	0.2971
predicted_R	0.4010
predicted_RBI	0.1690
predicted_SLG	0.3350
predicted_SO	0.8050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1780	0.1630	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1920	3.2260	3.2048	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2066	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1920	0.2710	0.2218	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.6660	0.6498	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1480	0.1480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0770	0.0789	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2971	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3460	0.4010	0.3667	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.1690	0.2693	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3350	0.3724	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.8050	0.8785	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	665966
playerID	665966
playerName	Carlos Narváez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Marcelo Mayer (691785) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 32

All-history rows before 20260515: 32

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2190

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2190

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.281	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.281	3.000	0.719	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.333	-0.219	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.281	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.719	1.000	-0.719	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.333	-0.291	-0.333
predicted_R	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.295	0.333	-0.295	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.656	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.656	0.000	0.344	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.281	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.281	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.219	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.656	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.362	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.272	-0.009
predicted_H	0.703	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.053	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.020
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.015
predicted_R	0.237	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.310	-0.050
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.049
predicted_SO	0.671	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.362	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.035
predicted_BB	0.265	-0.007
predicted_H	0.649	-0.054
predicted_HBP	0.053	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.038
predicted_R	0.206	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.269	-0.041
predicted_SLG	0.292	-0.054
predicted_SO	0.688	0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.1944	0.2564	0.1944	0.1944	0.0000	0.0278	0.0556	0.2500
season	0.60	32	-	105.000	23.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	9.000	21.000	0.2190	0.2906	0.2952	0.2190	0.0095	0.0762	0.0857	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1130
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4880
predicted_AVG	0.2030
predicted_BB	0.2580
predicted_H	0.7080
predicted_HBP	0.0530
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.2670
predicted_R	0.2660
predicted_RBI	0.2310
predicted_SLG	0.2701
predicted_SO	0.6940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1130	0.1392	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2810	3.4880	3.3618	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2030	0.2280	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2810	0.2580	0.2720	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7080	0.7031	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0530	0.0530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0390	0.0701	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2670	0.2902	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2190	0.2660	0.2373	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.2310	0.3097	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2701	0.3463	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6560	0.6940	0.6708	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	691785
playerID	691785
playerName	Marcelo Mayer
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Ceddanne Rafaela (678882) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 37

All-history rows before 20260515: 37

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2612

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	3.622	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.622	3.000	0.378	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.946	0.000	-0.946	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.250	-0.331	-0.250
predicted_R	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.000	-0.388	0.000
predicted_SO	0.946	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.946	1.000	1.054	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	3.622	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.216	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.946	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.044	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.664	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.002
predicted_BB	0.206	-0.010
predicted_H	0.827	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.153	-
predicted_HR	0.110	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.003
predicted_R	0.419	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.393	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.967	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	0.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.664	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.038
predicted_BB	0.200	-0.005
predicted_H	0.763	-0.064
predicted_HBP	0.153	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.059
predicted_R	0.364	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.376	-0.057
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.051
predicted_SO	0.992	0.025

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	0.2564	0.3256	0.4103	0.2564	0.0513	0.1795	0.0513	0.2821
season	0.60	37	-	134.000	35.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	8.000	35.000	0.2612	0.3311	0.3881	0.2612	0.0224	0.1119	0.0597	0.2612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0300
predicted_AB	3.7270
predicted_AVG	0.2490
predicted_BB	0.1900
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.1530
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_OBP	0.3124
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.4950
predicted_SLG	0.3896
predicted_SO	0.9980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.0850	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0300	0.0444	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6220	3.7270	3.6641	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2490	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2160	0.1900	0.2056	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9280	0.8273	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1530	0.1530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1260	0.1104	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3124	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.4000	0.4192	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4950	0.4321	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3896	0.3928	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9460	0.9980	0.9668	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	678882
playerID	678882
playerName	Ceddanne Rafaela
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Caleb Durbin (702332) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 39

All-history rows before 20260515: 39

System season_avg: 0.1730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1729

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	1.000	-0.205	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.410	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.410	1.000	-0.410	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.173	1.000	-0.173	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.590	1.000	-0.590	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.257	1.000	-0.257	-1.000
predicted_R	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.256	2.000	-0.256	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.590	0.000	-0.590	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.410	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.282	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.359	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.590	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.368	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.247	-0.035
predicted_H	0.622	-0.048
predicted_HBP	0.173	-
predicted_HR	0.066	-0.024
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.022
predicted_R	0.321	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.317	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.056
predicted_SO	0.651	0.061

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.368	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	-0.043
predicted_BB	0.241	-0.006
predicted_H	0.573	-0.048
predicted_HBP	0.173	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.226	-0.058
predicted_R	0.279	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.275	-0.042
predicted_SLG	0.285	-0.055
predicted_SO	0.668	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.0769	0.2000	0.1538	0.0769	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3846
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1562	0.2286	0.2188	0.1562	0.0000	0.0938	0.0312	0.2188
season	0.60	39	-	133.000	23.000	8.000	1.000	13.000	14.000	11.000	23.000	0.1729	0.2568	0.2556	0.1729	0.0075	0.0977	0.0827	0.1729

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3060
predicted_AVG	0.1661
predicted_BB	0.1950
predicted_H	0.5490
predicted_HBP	0.1730
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2509
predicted_R	0.2630
predicted_RBI	0.2820
predicted_SLG	0.2560
predicted_SO	0.7420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.2020	0.2038	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4100	3.3060	3.3683	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1661	0.2128	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2820	0.1950	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.5490	0.6215	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1730	0.1730	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0300	0.0660	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2509	0.2833	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3590	0.2630	0.3205	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.2820	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2560	0.3393	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5900	0.7420	0.6509	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.173

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	702332
playerID	702332
playerName	Caleb Durbin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Connelly Early (813349) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.250	1.000	-1.250	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.875	0.000	0.125	2.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	4.250	4.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.188	7.000	0.013	-1.800
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	4.875	8.000	1.125	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	11.000	21.000	10.000	24.000	5.000	3.4138	1.0690	0.3793	0.7241	0.3448	0.8276	0.1724
last_10	0.35	8	42.200	15.000	34.000	18.000	39.000	5.000	3.1641	1.2188	0.3516	0.7969	0.4219	0.9141	0.1172
season	0.20	8	42.200	15.000	34.000	18.000	39.000	5.000	3.1641	1.2188	0.3516	0.7969	0.4219	0.9141	0.1172

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0950
predicted_ER	2.2810
predicted_ERA	3.6658
predicted_H	4.5990
predicted_HR	0.8120
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.0140
predicted_WHIP	1.1951

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0950	1.5338	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.2810	2.1370	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6658	3.6658	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.5990	5.3170	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8120	0.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.0140	5.0068	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1951	1.1951	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	6
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	102

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	1
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.16
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	70
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	813349
playerID	813349
playerName	Connelly Early
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 14

All-history rows before 20260515: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.357	2.000	-0.357	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.071	0.000	0.929	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.000	1.057	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.357	3.000	-0.357	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.4000	0.4000	1.8000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	0.000	5.000	4.000	16.000	0.0000	0.9310	0.0000	0.5172	0.4138	1.6552
season	0.20	14	13.200	1.000	7.000	5.000	19.000	0.6585	0.8780	0.0732	0.5122	0.3659	1.3902

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3870
predicted_ER	0.3070
predicted_ERA	2.7646
predicted_H	0.7720
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2090
predicted_WHIP	1.1588

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3870	0.1456	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3070	0.7392	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7646	2.7646	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7720	0.9142	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0840	0.6553	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2090	1.0786	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1588	1.1588	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 17

All-history rows before 20260515: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.765	0.000	1.235	2.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	-0.906	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.294	2.000	-0.294	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.000	3.3750	0.7500	0.3750	0.5625	0.1875	1.6875	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	4.000	8.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	3.4839	0.8710	0.3871	0.7742	0.0968	1.0645	0.0968
season	0.20	17	17.100	6.000	13.000	6.000	22.000	2.000	3.1154	1.0962	0.3462	0.7500	0.3462	1.2692	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1830
predicted_ER	0.2590
predicted_ERA	3.8553
predicted_H	0.5030
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6860
predicted_WHIP	1.1332

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1830	0.0732	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2590	0.7037	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8553	3.8553	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.5030	1.4013	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0240	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6860	1.4745	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1332	1.1332	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.12
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Home Team: ATL

Ozzie Albies (645277) · BATTER · 2B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 44

All-history rows before 20260515: 44

System season_avg: 0.2880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2882

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.864	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.864	4.000	0.136	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.288	0.000	-0.288	0.000
predicted_BB	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.114	0.000	-1.114	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.000	-0.340	0.000
predicted_R	0.682	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.682	0.000	-0.682	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.568	0.000	-0.568	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_SO	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.864	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.682	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.545	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.851	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.314	-0.005
predicted_H	0.872	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.117	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.008
predicted_R	0.631	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.463	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.563	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.851	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.322	0.008
predicted_H	0.907	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.123	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.002
predicted_R	0.679	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.498	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.372	-0.008
predicted_SO	0.549	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.864

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1053	0.1500	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	7.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.2368	0.1579	0.0263	0.1053	0.1053	0.1842
season	0.60	44	-	170.000	49.000	8.000	8.000	25.000	30.000	14.000	24.000	0.2882	0.3404	0.4765	0.2882	0.0471	0.1471	0.0824	0.1412

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1180
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8320
predicted_AVG	0.2281
predicted_BB	0.3070
predicted_H	0.8740
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1280
predicted_OBP	0.2851
predicted_R	0.5580
predicted_RBI	0.4960
predicted_SLG	0.3598
predicted_SO	0.5900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1180	0.1558	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8640	3.8320	3.8509	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2281	0.2375	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.3070	0.3135	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.8740	0.8716	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1280	0.1174	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2851	0.2968	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6820	0.5580	0.6312	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4960	0.4629	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3598	0.3806	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5450	0.5900	0.5634	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.288

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	645277
playerID	645277
playerName	Ozzie Albies
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mauricio Dubón (643289) · BATTER · LF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2564

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	4.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	-0.006	0.250
predicted_BB	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.952	0.000	0.048	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.000	-0.064	0.250
predicted_R	0.452	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.000	-0.154	0.250
predicted_SO	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	2.000	-0.714	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.262	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.230	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.040	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.765	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.269	0.007
predicted_H	0.883	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.030	-
predicted_HR	0.108	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.005
predicted_R	0.434	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.528	0.088
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.748	0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.230	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.765	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.004
predicted_BB	0.276	0.007
predicted_H	0.919	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.113	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.004
predicted_R	0.468	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.569	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.024
predicted_SO	0.729	-0.020

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.3810	0.1905	0.0476	0.2381	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	10.000	0.2051	0.2791	0.3333	0.2051	0.0256	0.1795	0.1026	0.2564
season	0.60	42	-	156.000	40.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	25.000	19.000	11.000	30.000	0.2564	0.3136	0.4038	0.2564	0.0192	0.1603	0.0705	0.1923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.0270
predicted_AB	3.8410
predicted_AVG	0.2346
predicted_BB	0.2790
predicted_H	0.9010
predicted_HBP	0.0300
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_OBP	0.2918
predicted_R	0.4090
predicted_RBI	0.6580
predicted_SLG	0.3865
predicted_SO	0.7980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.2170	0.2295	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0270	0.0395	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.8410	3.7655	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2346	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2620	0.2790	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9010	0.8826	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0300	0.0300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1040	0.1076	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2918	0.2996	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.4090	0.4345	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.6580	0.5285	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3865	0.3915	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7980	0.7481	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	643289
playerID	643289
playerName	Mauricio Dubón
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Drake Baldwin (686948) · BATTER · DH · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 44

All-history rows before 20260515: 44

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2938

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.023	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.023	4.000	-1.023	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.250	0.373	0.417
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.182	1.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.250	0.375	0.500
predicted_R	0.841	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.841	0.000	0.159	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.514	0.250	0.153	0.417
predicted_SO	0.977	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.977	2.000	-0.977	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.023	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.841	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.977	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.986	-0.037
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.011
predicted_BB	0.445	-0.010
predicted_H	0.963	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.181	0.061
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.018
predicted_R	0.801	-0.039
predicted_RBI	0.528	0.068
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.049
predicted_SO	1.003	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.986	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.456	0.012
predicted_H	1.002	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.039	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.005
predicted_R	0.863	0.061
predicted_RBI	0.568	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.430	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.977	-0.026

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 4.023

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.6316	0.2632	0.1053	0.1579	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	12.000	0.2308	0.3182	0.4872	0.2308	0.0769	0.1026	0.1282	0.3077
season	0.60	44	-	177.000	52.000	6.000	11.000	33.000	37.000	20.000	43.000	0.2938	0.3750	0.5141	0.2938	0.0621	0.1864	0.1130	0.2429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9330
predicted_AVG	0.2710
predicted_BB	0.4300
predicted_H	1.0660
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.2690
predicted_OBP	0.3488
predicted_R	0.7450
predicted_RBI	0.6250
predicted_SLG	0.5143
predicted_SO	1.0410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1470	0.1405	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0230	3.9330	3.9859	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2710	0.2551	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.4300	0.4447	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0660	0.9625	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.2690	0.1814	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3488	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8410	0.7450	0.8015	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.6250	0.5280	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5143	0.4441	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9770	1.0410	1.0034	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	686948
playerID	686948
playerName	Drake Baldwin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ATL
teamID	2

Austin Riley (663586) · BATTER · 3B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2209

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.791	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.791	3.000	0.209	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.333	-0.221	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.837	1.000	-0.837	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.500	-0.293	-0.500
predicted_R	0.512	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.581	0.000	-0.581	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.374	0.333	-0.374	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.116	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.116	1.000	0.884	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.791	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.326	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.116	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.778	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.299	-0.027
predicted_H	0.844	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.093	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.024
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.509	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.455	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.003
predicted_SO	1.084	-0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.306	0.008
predicted_H	0.878	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.093	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.015
predicted_R	0.548	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.375	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.055	-0.028

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.4444	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	12.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.4474	0.2632	0.0526	0.1316	0.0263	0.3158
season	0.60	43	-	163.000	36.000	7.000	6.000	25.000	22.000	14.000	48.000	0.2209	0.2928	0.3742	0.2209	0.0368	0.1534	0.0859	0.2945

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1250
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7600
predicted_AVG	0.2412
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.9070
predicted_HBP	0.0930
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_OBP	0.3056
predicted_R	0.5060
predicted_RBI	0.5200
predicted_SLG	0.4017
predicted_SO	1.0370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.1250	0.1475	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7910	3.7600	3.7783	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2412	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3260	0.2590	0.2986	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9070	0.8437	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0930	0.0930	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1580	0.1237	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3056	0.3052	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.5060	0.5095	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5200	0.4549	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4017	0.3977	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1160	1.0370	1.0837	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663586
playerID	663586
playerName	Austin Riley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ha-Seong Kim (673490) · BATTER · SS · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 3

All-history rows before 20260515: 3

System season_avg: 0.1110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1111

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.138	0.138
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.326	-0.007
predicted_H	0.675	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.006
predicted_R	0.081	0.081
predicted_RBI	0.331	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.379	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.700	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.138	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.334	0.008
predicted_H	0.703	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.085	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.087	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.356	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.316	-0.062
predicted_SO	0.681	-0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.20	3	-	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.2222
season	0.60	3	-	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1280
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.5970
predicted_AVG	0.2107
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_H	0.7580
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.2790
predicted_R	0.3520
predicted_RBI	0.3350
predicted_SLG	0.3236
predicted_SO	0.8080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1280	0.0295	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.5970	3.1377	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2107	0.2363	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3020	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7580	0.6749	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0860	0.0814	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2790	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3520	0.0812	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3350	0.3312	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3236	0.3785	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.8080	0.6995	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.111

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	673490
playerID	673490
playerName	Ha-Seong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ATL
teamID	2

Sandy León (506702) · BATTER · C · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 1

All-history rows before 20260515: 1

System season_avg: 0.5000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.5000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.500	0.500	0.167	0.167
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.667	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.500	0.167	0.167
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.500	1.167	1.167
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.708	0.208
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.003
predicted_BB	0.045	0.045
predicted_H	0.506	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.002
predicted_R	0.079	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.248	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.001
predicted_SO	0.137	0.137

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.708	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.052
predicted_BB	0.047	0.001
predicted_H	0.527	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.208	-0.099
predicted_R	0.085	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.268	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.277	-0.119
predicted_SO	0.133	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB
last_5	0.20	1	-	2.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000
last_10	0.20	1	-	2.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000
season	0.60	1	-	2.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6840
predicted_AVG	0.2598
predicted_BB	0.2580
predicted_H	0.9570
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_OBP	0.3175
predicted_R	0.4500
predicted_RBI	0.4290
predicted_SLG	0.4011
predicted_SO	0.7780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1630	0.0287	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0130	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.6840	2.7081	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2598	0.2468	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2580	0.0454	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.9570	0.5062	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.1110	0.0607	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3175	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4500	0.0791	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.4290	0.2485	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4011	0.3961	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7780	0.1368	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	506702
playerID	506702
playerName	Sandy León
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ATL
teamID	2

Matt Olson (621566) · BATTER · 1B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 44

All-history rows before 20260515: 44

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2941

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.341	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.341	0.000	1.659	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.864	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.864	4.000	0.136	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.250	0.206	0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.136	1.000	0.864	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.250	0.129	0.250
predicted_R	0.818	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.818	0.000	0.182	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.841	0.000	1.159	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.629	0.250	0.371	0.750
predicted_SO	1.068	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.068	3.000	-0.068	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.341	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.864	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.818	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.068	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.298	-0.043
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.858	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.018
predicted_BB	0.447	-0.053
predicted_H	0.952	0.112
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.175	0.065
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.018
predicted_R	0.742	-0.076
predicted_RBI	0.565	0.135
predicted_SLG	0.463	0.068
predicted_SO	1.110	0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.298	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.858	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.458	0.012
predicted_H	0.991	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.183	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.013
predicted_R	0.798	0.057
predicted_RBI	0.608	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.014
predicted_SO	1.081	-0.029

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.864

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.4500	0.3000	0.0500	0.2000	0.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	4.000	13.000	0.2973	0.3659	0.5946	0.2973	0.0811	0.1892	0.1081	0.3513
season	0.60	44	-	170.000	50.000	15.000	14.000	37.000	36.000	22.000	47.000	0.2941	0.3711	0.6294	0.2941	0.0824	0.2177	0.1294	0.2765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8500
predicted_AVG	0.2889
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_H	1.1120
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2690
predicted_OBP	0.3491
predicted_R	0.6320
predicted_RBI	0.7590
predicted_SLG	0.5608
predicted_SO	1.1700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3410	0.2370	0.2983	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8640	3.8500	3.8582	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2889	0.2624	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3700	0.4466	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.1120	0.9517	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2690	0.1753	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3491	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8180	0.6320	0.7416	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.7590	0.5652	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5608	0.4631	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0680	1.1700	1.1099	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	621566
playerID	621566
playerName	Matt Olson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ATL
teamID	2

José Azócar (640492) · BATTER · RF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 2

All-history rows before 20260515: 2

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.390	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.390	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.708	0.208
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.045	0.045
predicted_H	0.483	0.093
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.001
predicted_R	0.079	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.237	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.003
predicted_SO	1.187	-0.063

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.708	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	-0.058
predicted_BB	0.047	0.001
predicted_H	0.503	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.200	-0.104
predicted_R	0.085	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.255	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.268	-0.124
predicted_SO	1.156	-0.031

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	2	-	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000
last_10	0.20	2	-	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000
season	0.60	2	-	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.5850
predicted_AVG	0.2446
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	0.8770
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.2989
predicted_R	0.4120
predicted_RBI	0.3930
predicted_SLG	0.3775
predicted_SO	0.9240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1500	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.5850	2.7082	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2446	0.2441	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2370	0.0455	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3900	0.8770	0.4835	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.1010	0.0598	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2989	0.3038	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4120	0.0791	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.3930	0.2370	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3775	0.3916	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	0.9240	1.1874	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	640492
playerID	640492
playerName	José Azócar
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Michael Harris II (671739) · BATTER · CF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 35

All-history rows before 20260515: 35

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2985

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2990

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	0.886	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	4.000	0.171	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.250	0.201	0.250
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.143	1.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.250	0.179	0.250
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	0.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.463	0.250	0.287	0.500
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	2.000	0.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.829	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.842	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.014
predicted_BB	0.135	-0.008
predicted_H	0.921	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.109	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.002
predicted_R	0.430	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.414	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.001
predicted_SO	0.862	0.062

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.842	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.138	0.004
predicted_H	0.959	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.114	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.027
predicted_R	0.463	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.445	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.371	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.839	-0.023

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.829

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	11.000	0.2821	0.2821	0.3077	0.2821	0.0000	0.0256	0.0000	0.2821
season	0.60	35	-	134.000	40.000	4.000	6.000	19.000	15.000	5.000	28.000	0.2985	0.3214	0.4627	0.2985	0.0448	0.1418	0.0373	0.2090

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8630
predicted_AVG	0.2782
predicted_BB	0.1220
predicted_H	1.0740
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_OBP	0.3003
predicted_R	0.4310
predicted_RBI	0.4040
predicted_SLG	0.3983
predicted_SO	0.9550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1370	0.1232	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8290	3.8630	3.8425	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2782	0.2576	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.1220	0.1346	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.0740	0.9212	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1070	0.1088	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3003	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4310	0.4298	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4040	0.4136	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3983	0.3963	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.9550	0.8617	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	671739
playerID	671739
playerName	Michael Harris II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Spencer Strider (675911) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 2

All-history rows before 20260515: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	3.500	2.000	-2.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.500	0.000	-1.500	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	2.500	1.000	-0.500	1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.550	6.000	-0.350	-1.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	7.000	8.000	-2.000	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	9.100	3.000	5.000	7.000	14.000	1.000	2.8929	1.2857	0.3214	0.5357	0.7500	1.5000	0.1071
last_10	0.35	2	9.100	3.000	5.000	7.000	14.000	1.000	2.8929	1.2857	0.3214	0.5357	0.7500	1.5000	0.1071
season	0.20	2	9.100	3.000	5.000	7.000	14.000	1.000	2.8929	1.2857	0.3214	0.5357	0.7500	1.5000	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.5030
predicted_ER	2.1850
predicted_ERA	3.8237
predicted_H	4.2370
predicted_HR	0.6310
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.7280
predicted_WHIP	1.3106

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.5030	1.5234	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.1850	0.7608	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8237	3.8237	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.2370	2.7789	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6310	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.0000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.7280	5.2535	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3106	1.3106	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.89
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	675911
playerID	675911
playerName	Spencer Strider
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dylan Lee (669276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 21

All-history rows before 20260515: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.095	0.000	0.905	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.929	1.000	0.071	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.190	2.000	-0.190	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	2.000	0.000	16.000	0.8438	0.1875	0.0938	0.1875	0.0000	1.5000
season	0.20	21	20.200	2.000	7.000	2.000	25.000	0.8710	0.4355	0.0968	0.3387	0.0968	1.2097

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_ER	0.2790
predicted_ERA	2.5146
predicted_H	0.6160
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1570
predicted_WHIP	0.8342

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2180	0.6730	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2790	0.1167	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5146	2.5146	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6160	0.2576	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1570	1.0656	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8342	0.8342	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	7

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.87
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	669276
playerID	669276
playerName	Dylan Lee
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Raisel Iglesias (628452) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 12

All-history rows before 20260515: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.000	-0.017	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.250	0.000	-1.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.8000	0.4000	0.4000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	5.000	2.000	14.000	0.6562	0.4688	0.1875	1.3125
season	0.20	12	12.200	6.000	2.000	15.000	0.6316	0.4737	0.1579	1.1842

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_ER	0.3100
predicted_ERA	2.7904
predicted_H	0.7720
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0220
predicted_WHIP	1.1180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3460	0.1277	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3100	0.1144	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7904	2.7904	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7720	0.2849	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0860	0.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0220	0.3772	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1180	1.1180	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	2
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	628452
playerID	628452
playerName	Raisel Iglesias
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Robert Suarez (663158) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.722	1.000	-0.722	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.961	1.000	0.039	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.0000	1.1250	0.0000	0.7500	0.3750	0.9375
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	0.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.0000	0.8710	0.0000	0.5806	0.2903	0.9677
season	0.20	18	18.000	1.000	13.000	4.000	18.000	0.5000	0.9444	0.0556	0.7222	0.2222	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3540
predicted_ER	0.2760
predicted_ERA	2.4868
predicted_H	0.8330
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9600
predicted_WHIP	1.1868

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3540	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2760	0.1115	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4868	2.4868	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8330	0.3364	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0303	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9600	0.3877	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1868	1.1868	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663158
playerID	663158
playerName	Robert Suarez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Tyler Kinley (641755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.830	0.200	0.270	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.950	0.000	0.050	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	11.2500	2.0000	1.2500	1.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	6.000	11.000	6.000	12.000	3.000	6.0000	1.8889	0.6667	1.2222	0.6667	1.3333	0.3333
season	0.20	20	18.000	7.000	15.000	9.000	19.000	3.000	3.5000	1.3333	0.3889	0.8333	0.5000	1.0556	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3380
predicted_ER	0.4730
predicted_ERA	5.7261
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HR	0.2070
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8000
predicted_WHIP	1.5322

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3380	0.1365	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4730	0.7872	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.7261	5.7261	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8000	0.9192	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2070	0.6798	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8000	0.9192	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5322	1.5322	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	641755
playerID	641755
playerName	Tyler Kinley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

20260515_CHC@CHW

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.533702, "home_win_probability": 0.533702, "away_win_probability": 0.466298, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 6 CHW", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 6 CHW", "confidence": 0.533702, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 6 CHW", "winner": "CHW"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHC 3 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CHW"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -3, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CHC 4 - 6 CHW	CHW	0.534	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CHC 3 - 4 CHW	CHW	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CHC	6-4	0.600	3.50	3.40	1	1W	average	strong
Home CHW	6-4	0.600	4.80	4.20	6	5W	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CHC	28-16	0.636	43	0.977	True
Home CHW	22-21	0.512	-8	-0.186	True
Signal	-	-	-1.163	-1.350	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CHC	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target CHW	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CHC	34	9	5	0	1	3	9
Player finalized CHW	32	9	6	0	2	3	9
Player model fractional CHC	32.89	7.31	4.78	1.00	3.84	4.52	7.92
Player model fractional CHW	31.22	6.97	4.52	1.01	3.67	3.95	8.53
Simulation box CHC	32	5	3	1	3	3	8
Simulation box CHW	28	4	4	0	4	4	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CHC	Starter	Edward Cabrera	6	3	6	4	2	4.54	1.36	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Palencia	1.20	0	0	0	0	4.06	1.29	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Phil Maton	0.10	1	0	0	2	4.76	1.29	True
Home CHW	Starter	Sean Burke	6.20	0	5	2	2	3.90	1.18	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Grant Taylor	1.10	0	2	0	0	3.39	1.25	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Seranthony Domínguez	1	3	1	3	1	4.67	1.41	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CHC

Moisés Ballesteros (694208) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 30

All-history rows before 20260515: 30

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2316

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2320

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	4.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.000	-0.232	0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.733	0.000	-0.733	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.000	-0.042	0.250
predicted_R	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.433	0.000	-0.433	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.442	0.000	-0.442	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.433	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.278	0.111
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.282	-0.018
predicted_H	0.645	-0.035
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.110	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.274	-0.031
predicted_R	0.401	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.415	0.065
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.744	0.077

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.278	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.287	0.005
predicted_H	0.668	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.115	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.006
predicted_R	0.425	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.330	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.732	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.0000	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	0.0541	0.1220	0.1351	0.0541	0.0270	0.1081	0.0811	0.2703
season	0.60	30	-	95.000	22.000	2.000	6.000	18.000	13.000	9.000	20.000	0.2316	0.2925	0.4421	0.2316	0.0632	0.1895	0.0947	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4560
predicted_AVG	0.1705
predicted_BB	0.2540
predicted_H	0.5890
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.2232
predicted_R	0.3500
predicted_RBI	0.5190
predicted_SLG	0.3148
predicted_SO	0.8670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0700	0.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.4560	3.2784	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1705	0.2157	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.2540	0.2823	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.5890	0.6449	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1410	0.1097	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2232	0.2735	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4330	0.3500	0.4010	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.5190	0.4151	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3148	0.3641	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.8670	0.7441	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	694208
playerID	694208
playerName	Moisés Ballesteros
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2338

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.667	0.433	0.000
predicted_BB	0.786	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.786	1.000	0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	2.000	1.143	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.238	1.000	0.762	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.750	0.374	0.000
predicted_R	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.810	2.000	0.190	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	1.000	2.548	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.481	1.667	1.186	0.000
predicted_SO	1.381	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.381	0.000	-1.381	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.786	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.810	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.381	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.587	-0.080
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.791	0.005
predicted_H	0.772	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.145	0.045
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.023
predicted_R	0.786	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.404	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.013
predicted_SO	1.421	0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.587	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.803	0.012
predicted_H	0.799	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.152	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.037
predicted_R	0.834	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.429	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.395	-0.013
predicted_SO	1.398	-0.022

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	0.1429	0.3684	0.3571	0.1429	0.0714	0.0714	0.3571	0.6429
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	9.000	17.000	0.1818	0.3571	0.3636	0.1818	0.0606	0.1212	0.2727	0.5151
season	0.60	42	-	154.000	36.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	19.000	34.000	33.000	58.000	0.2338	0.3757	0.4805	0.2338	0.0649	0.1234	0.2143	0.3766

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0930
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.4720
predicted_AVG	0.2105
predicted_BB	0.7980
predicted_H	0.7310
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.2110
predicted_OBP	0.3616
predicted_R	0.7510
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.4272
predicted_SO	1.4780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0930	0.1225	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0130	0.0195	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.4720	3.5871	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2105	0.2303	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7860	0.7980	0.7909	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.7310	0.7717	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.2110	0.1455	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3616	0.3282	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8100	0.7510	0.7858	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.3960	0.4043	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4272	0.4082	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3810	1.4780	1.4208	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2258

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.690	4.000	0.310	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.250	0.024	0.000
predicted_BB	0.643	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.250	-0.094	0.000
predicted_R	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	0.000	0.595	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.348	0.250	-0.098	0.000
predicted_SO	1.024	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.024	3.000	-1.024	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.643	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.024	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.613	-0.077
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.667	0.024
predicted_H	0.819	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.093	-0.017
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.023
predicted_R	0.362	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.372	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.047	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.613	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.677	0.011
predicted_H	0.848	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.097	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.027
predicted_R	0.384	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.000
predicted_SO	1.031	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	0.2000	0.3684	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2667	0.4667
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	10.000	10.000	0.2812	0.4524	0.4062	0.2812	0.0312	0.1875	0.3125	0.3125
season	0.60	42	-	155.000	35.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	22.000	17.000	27.000	43.000	0.2258	0.3441	0.3484	0.2258	0.0193	0.1419	0.1742	0.2774

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1350
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5020
predicted_AVG	0.2334
predicted_BB	0.7010
predicted_H	0.8170
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.3616
predicted_R	0.3000
predicted_RBI	0.4300
predicted_SLG	0.3392
predicted_SO	1.0810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1350	0.1675	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0130	0.0195	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.5020	3.6130	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2334	0.2397	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6430	0.7010	0.6667	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8170	0.8188	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0690	0.0932	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3616	0.3282	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.3000	0.3620	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4300	0.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3392	0.3722	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0240	1.0810	1.0473	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.071	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.071	3.000	-0.071	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	1.000	-0.024	-1.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.071	0.000	-1.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.250	-0.342	-0.250
predicted_R	0.452	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.690	0.000	-0.690	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.398	0.000	-0.398	0.000
predicted_SO	0.381	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.381	1.000	0.619	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.071	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.381	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.010	-0.061
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.424	-0.005
predicted_H	0.928	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.103	-0.027
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.000
predicted_R	0.402	-0.050
predicted_RBI	0.494	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.370	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.397	0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.010	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.004
predicted_BB	0.431	0.007
predicted_H	0.961	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.052	0.000
predicted_HR	0.107	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.009
predicted_R	0.426	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.525	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.013
predicted_SO	0.390	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.071

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	0.1538	0.2444	0.2051	0.1538	0.0000	0.0769	0.1282	0.0513
season	0.60	42	-	171.000	45.000	11.000	4.000	29.000	19.000	18.000	16.000	0.2632	0.3418	0.3977	0.2632	0.0234	0.1696	0.1053	0.0936

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9230
predicted_AVG	0.2249
predicted_BB	0.4170
predicted_H	0.8820
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3041
predicted_R	0.3300
predicted_RBI	0.5010
predicted_SLG	0.3334
predicted_SO	0.4190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2620	0.2290	0.2484	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0710	3.9230	4.0101	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2249	0.2361	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.4170	0.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	0.8820	0.9279	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.0640	0.1029	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3041	0.3046	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.3300	0.4018	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5010	0.4945	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3334	0.3697	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3810	0.4190	0.3966	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Alex Bregman (608324) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2367

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	4.024	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.024	4.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.250	0.013	0.000
predicted_BB	0.524	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.952	1.000	0.048	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.250	-0.076	0.000
predicted_R	0.381	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.381	0.000	0.619	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.349	0.250	-0.099	0.000
predicted_SO	0.786	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	1.000	-0.786	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	4.024	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.524	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.381	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.113	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.015	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.001
predicted_BB	0.473	-0.051
predicted_H	0.933	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.119	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.004
predicted_R	0.405	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.392	-0.068
predicted_SLG	0.383	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.848	0.062

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.113	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	4.015	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.481	0.008
predicted_H	0.966	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.124	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.013
predicted_R	0.429	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.416	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.371	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.834	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.024

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	0.2857	0.0476	0.0476	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	10.000	0.2308	0.3182	0.3333	0.2308	0.0256	0.0513	0.1282	0.2564
season	0.60	42	-	169.000	40.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	13.000	16.000	22.000	33.000	0.2367	0.3264	0.3491	0.2367	0.0237	0.0769	0.1302	0.1953

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	4.0020
predicted_AVG	0.2451
predicted_BB	0.4000
predicted_H	0.9810
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_OBP	0.3151
predicted_R	0.4390
predicted_RBI	0.2950
predicted_SLG	0.3662
predicted_SO	0.9360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1190	0.1050	0.1133	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0240	4.0020	4.0150	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2451	0.2445	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5240	0.4000	0.4731	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9810	0.9333	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1170	0.1188	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3151	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3810	0.4390	0.4048	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.2950	0.3922	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3662	0.3832	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.9360	0.8476	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	608324
playerID	608324
playerName	Alex Bregman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Carson Kelly (608348) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 27

All-history rows before 20260515: 27

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.333	-0.023	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.333	-0.107	-0.083
predicted_R	0.519	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.519	1.000	-0.519	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.343	0.333	-0.093	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.704	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.704	0.000	1.296	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.519	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.704	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.645	-0.022
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.400	-0.044
predicted_H	0.813	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.077	-0.023
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.001
predicted_R	0.502	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.360	-0.040
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.697	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.645	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.406	0.006
predicted_H	0.842	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.081	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.004
predicted_R	0.532	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.382	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.686	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0833	0.0556	0.1389
season	0.60	27	-	99.000	27.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	14.000	12.000	19.000	0.2727	0.3571	0.3434	0.2727	0.0101	0.0909	0.1212	0.1919

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6100
predicted_AVG	0.2353
predicted_BB	0.3310
predicted_H	0.8500
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.3029
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.2980
predicted_SLG	0.3006
predicted_SO	0.6860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.1050	0.1313	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.6100	3.6449	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2353	0.2406	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.3310	0.4001	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8500	0.8133	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0420	0.0775	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3029	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5190	0.4750	0.5019	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.2980	0.3604	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3006	0.3584	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7040	0.6860	0.6970	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	608348
playerID	608348
playerName	Carson Kelly
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Seiya Suzuki (673548) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 28

All-history rows before 20260515: 28

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.607	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.607	0.000	-0.607	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.000	-0.376	0.000
predicted_R	0.679	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.679	0.000	-0.679	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.495	0.000	-0.495	0.000
predicted_SO	1.071	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.071	1.000	0.929	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.607	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.679	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.071	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.741	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.575	-0.032
predicted_H	0.795	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.030
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.005
predicted_R	0.609	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.393	-0.002
predicted_SO	1.098	0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.741	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.584	0.009
predicted_H	0.824	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.136	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.016
predicted_R	0.646	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.359	-0.034
predicted_SO	1.081	-0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	0.0556	0.1500	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.4444
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	12.000	0.1892	0.3182	0.4054	0.1892	0.0541	0.1622	0.1892	0.3243
season	0.60	28	-	105.000	28.000	3.000	7.000	16.000	19.000	17.000	30.000	0.2667	0.3760	0.4952	0.2667	0.0667	0.1524	0.1619	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1180
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7270
predicted_AVG	0.2157
predicted_BB	0.5260
predicted_H	0.8040
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_OBP	0.3166
predicted_R	0.5020
predicted_RBI	0.4620
predicted_SLG	0.3903
predicted_SO	1.1400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.1180	0.1113	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7270	3.7410	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2157	0.2329	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6070	0.5260	0.5751	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8040	0.7955	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1760	0.1299	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3166	0.3096	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6790	0.5020	0.6094	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4620	0.4244	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3903	0.3932	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0710	1.1400	1.0981	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	673548
playerID	673548
playerName	Seiya Suzuki
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHC
teamID	5

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2405

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3690

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.047	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_AB	3.674	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.674	3.000	-0.674	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.333	-0.241	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.326	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.326	1.000	0.674	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.884	1.000	-0.884	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.500	-0.064	-0.250
predicted_R	0.558	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.558	0.000	-0.558	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.373	0.333	-0.373	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-
predicted_3B	0.047	-
predicted_AB	3.674	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.326	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.558	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.045	-0.002
predicted_AB	3.608	-0.066
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.352	0.026
predicted_H	0.742	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.057	-
predicted_HR	0.092	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.001
predicted_R	0.499	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.360	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.370	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.933	-0.067

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.608	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.358	0.006
predicted_H	0.768	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.096	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.020
predicted_R	0.529	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.382	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.348	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.918	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	0.0667	0.2222	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.2424	0.3421	0.4242	0.2424	0.0303	0.1212	0.1212	0.1818
season	0.60	43	-	158.000	38.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	17.000	24.000	14.000	43.000	0.2405	0.3143	0.3734	0.2405	0.0253	0.1076	0.0886	0.2722

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.5130
predicted_AVG	0.2116
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_H	0.7440
predicted_HBP	0.0570
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.3020
predicted_R	0.4130
predicted_RBI	0.3300
predicted_SLG	0.3328
predicted_SO	0.8350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1160	0.0990	0.1091	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0470	0.0430	0.0454	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6740	3.5130	3.6084	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2116	0.2308	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3260	0.3910	0.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7440	0.7416	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0570	0.0570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0800	0.0919	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3020	0.3038	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5580	0.4130	0.4990	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3300	0.3596	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3328	0.3697	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8350	0.9328	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Dansby Swanson (621020) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.1830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1831

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.381	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.381	4.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.183	0.000	-0.183	0.000
predicted_BB	0.548	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.619	0.000	-0.619	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.619	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.619	0.000	-0.619	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.338	0.000	-0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	0.857	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	2.000	1.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.048	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.381	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.548	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.619	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	0.023
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.388	0.007
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.484	-0.064
predicted_H	0.614	-0.046
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.024
predicted_R	0.537	-0.082
predicted_RBI	0.348	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.348	-0.047
predicted_SO	0.859	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.388	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.491	0.008
predicted_H	0.636	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.094	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.010
predicted_R	0.570	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.303	-0.044
predicted_SO	0.845	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.0667	0.1250	0.1333	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1143	0.1622	0.1429	0.1143	0.0000	0.0286	0.0571	0.2000
season	0.60	42	-	142.000	26.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	23.000	26.000	23.000	36.000	0.1831	0.2959	0.3380	0.1831	0.0423	0.1620	0.1620	0.2535

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1040
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.3990
predicted_AVG	0.1608
predicted_BB	0.3900
predicted_H	0.5470
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.2456
predicted_R	0.4170
predicted_RBI	0.3610
predicted_SLG	0.2786
predicted_SO	0.8620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0480	0.1040	0.0707	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3810	3.3990	3.3883	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1608	0.2102	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5480	0.3900	0.4839	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.5470	0.6141	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0900	0.0900	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2456	0.2809	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6190	0.4170	0.5370	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3610	0.3485	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2786	0.3478	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.8620	0.8590	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.183

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	621020
playerID	621020
playerName	Dansby Swanson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Edward Cabrera (665795) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.875	1.000	0.125	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.500	5.000	0.500	-2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	5.750	7.000	-1.750	-3.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.675	5.000	0.325	1.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.375	6.000	0.625	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.200	17.000	36.000	6.000	30.000	7.000	5.1573	1.4157	0.5730	1.2135	0.2023	1.0112	0.2360
last_10	0.35	8	46.100	20.000	46.000	15.000	43.000	7.000	3.8849	1.3165	0.4316	0.9928	0.3237	0.9281	0.1511
season	0.20	8	46.100	20.000	46.000	15.000	43.000	7.000	3.8849	1.3165	0.4316	0.9928	0.3237	0.9281	0.1511

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7500
predicted_ER	2.9930
predicted_ERA	4.5385
predicted_H	6.3190
predicted_HR	1.0580
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	5.7860
predicted_WHIP	1.3597

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.7500	1.8781	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.9930	2.9966	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5385	4.5385	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	6.3190	5.1305	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0580	0.5158	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	5.7860	5.8957	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3597	1.3597	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	6
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	99

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	3.88
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	665795
playerID	665795
playerName	Edward Cabrera
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Daniel Palencia (694037) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 9

All-history rows before 20260515: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.811	1.000	0.389	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	4.5000	1.2500	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500	1.5000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	9	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	2.2500	1.1250	0.2500	0.8750	0.2500	1.1250	0.1250
season	0.20	9	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	2.2500	1.1250	0.2500	0.8750	0.2500	1.1250	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_ER	0.4290
predicted_ERA	4.0611
predicted_H	0.8960
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0030
predicted_WHIP	1.2919

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3320	0.1094	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4290	0.1414	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0611	4.0611	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8960	0.2952	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1390	0.0458	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0030	0.3305	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2919	1.2919	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.25
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	694037
playerID	694037
playerName	Daniel Palencia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 13

All-history rows before 20260515: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.385	0.000	1.615	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.769	0.000	0.231	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.077	1.000	-1.077	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.754	1.000	-0.654	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.231	2.000	-1.231	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	3.8571	0.8571	0.4286	0.8571	0.0000	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	8.000	12.000	2.000	13.000	2.000	7.7143	1.5000	0.8571	1.2857	0.2143	1.3929	0.2143
season	0.20	13	11.200	10.000	14.000	5.000	16.000	2.000	7.7143	1.6286	0.8571	1.2000	0.4286	1.3714	0.1714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1700
predicted_ER	0.2880
predicted_ERA	4.7611
predicted_H	0.5350
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5880
predicted_WHIP	1.2939

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.1700	1.3386	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2880	0.7427	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7611	4.7611	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5350	0.1934	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0840	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5880	0.2125	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2939	1.2939	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Home Team: CHW

Munetaka Murakami (808959) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2245

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2240

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.585	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.585	1.000	0.415	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.000	-0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.854	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.854	3.000	-0.854	-3.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.805	0.000	-0.805	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.750	-0.372	-0.750
predicted_R	0.707	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.707	1.000	-0.707	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.707	0.000	-0.707	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.537	0.000	-0.537	0.000
predicted_SO	1.488	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.488	0.000	0.512	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.024	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.585	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.854	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.707	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.488	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.036	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.550	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.850	-0.004
predicted_H	0.756	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.155	0.055
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.021
predicted_R	0.648	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.428	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.405	0.010
predicted_SO	1.442	-0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.036	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.550	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.842	-0.008
predicted_H	0.744	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.152	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.035
predicted_R	0.628	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.415	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.348	-0.056
predicted_SO	1.455	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	0.1333	0.3810	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	16.000	0.1714	0.3256	0.3714	0.1714	0.0571	0.0857	0.2286	0.4571
season	0.60	41	-	147.000	33.000	1.000	15.000	29.000	29.000	35.000	61.000	0.2245	0.3716	0.5374	0.2245	0.1020	0.1973	0.2381	0.4150

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0530
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5000
predicted_AVG	0.2024
predicted_BB	0.8440
predicted_H	0.7080
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2340
predicted_OBP	0.3560
predicted_R	0.5630
predicted_RBI	0.4690
predicted_SLG	0.4193
predicted_SO	1.3750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0240	0.0530	0.0359	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5850	3.5000	3.5503	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2024	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8540	0.8440	0.8499	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.7080	0.7565	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.2340	0.1548	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3560	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7070	0.5630	0.6481	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4690	0.4282	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4193	0.4049	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4880	1.3750	1.4418	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	808959
playerID	808959
playerName	Munetaka Murakami
pos	IF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Jarred Kelenic (672284) · BATTER · RF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 10

All-history rows before 20260515: 10

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2759

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1930

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.900	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.900	3.000	0.100
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.000	-0.276
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	-0.800
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.000	-0.344
predicted_R	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.100	0.000	-0.100
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.310	0.000	-0.310
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	0.500

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.100	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.020
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.026	0.126
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.309	0.009
predicted_H	0.685	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.071	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.004
predicted_R	0.161	0.061
predicted_RBI	0.347	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.380	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.597	0.097

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.026	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.306	-0.003
predicted_H	0.674	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.014
predicted_R	0.157	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.337	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.047
predicted_SO	0.602	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.2143	0.3125	0.2857	0.2143	0.1429	0.1429	0.3571
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.2759	0.3438	0.3103	0.2759	0.1035	0.1035	0.1724
season	0.60	10	-	29.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.2759	0.3438	0.3103	0.2759	0.1035	0.1035	0.1724

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.3080
predicted_AVG	0.2445
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_H	0.8090
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.3171
predicted_R	0.2990
predicted_RBI	0.4090
predicted_SLG	0.3447
predicted_SO	0.8130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1660	0.1204	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9000	3.3080	3.0259	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2445	0.2442	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.3300	0.3093	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8090	0.6852	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0510	0.0711	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3171	0.3087	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1000	0.2990	0.1614	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.4090	0.3475	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3447	0.3795	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.8130	0.5965	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	672284
playerID	672284
playerName	Jarred Kelenic
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sam Antonacci (803011) · BATTER · LF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 22

All-history rows before 20260515: 22

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_AB	3.455	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.455	4.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.250	-0.263	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.136	1.000	-0.136	-1.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.400	-0.124	-0.150
predicted_R	0.591	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.591	0.000	-0.591	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.408	0.500	-0.408	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.091	-
predicted_AB	3.455	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.591	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.019
predicted_3B	0.074	-0.017
predicted_AB	3.498	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.012
predicted_BB	0.255	-0.019
predicted_H	0.877	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.298	-
predicted_HR	0.087	-0.023
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.023
predicted_R	0.601	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.392	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.005
predicted_SO	0.566	0.066

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.000
predicted_3B	0.074	0.000
predicted_AB	3.498	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.252	-0.002
predicted_H	0.863	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_HR	0.085	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.031
predicted_R	0.583	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.380	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.019
predicted_SO	0.571	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.4444	0.3333	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	0.3143	0.4146	0.4000	0.3143	0.0000	0.0571	0.0571	0.2286
season	0.60	22	-	76.000	20.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	13.000	6.000	11.000	0.2632	0.3736	0.4079	0.2632	0.0132	0.1184	0.0790	0.1447

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2320
predicted_3B	0.0460
predicted_AB	3.5680
predicted_AVG	0.2766
predicted_BB	0.2240
predicted_H	0.9870
predicted_HBP	0.2980
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.3668
predicted_R	0.6170
predicted_RBI	0.3610
predicted_SLG	0.4089
predicted_SO	0.6740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2320	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0910	0.0460	0.0740	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4550	3.5680	3.4977	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2766	0.2563	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2240	0.2545	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9870	0.8768	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2980	0.2980	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0490	0.0870	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3668	0.3283	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5910	0.6170	0.6008	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.3610	0.3915	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4089	0.4002	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6740	0.5657	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	803011
playerID	803011
playerName	Sam Antonacci
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Drew Romo (691011) · BATTER · C · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 10

All-history rows before 20260515: 10

System season_avg: 0.1610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1613

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.100	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.100	4.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_BB	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.581	0.000	-0.581	0.000
predicted_SO	0.900	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	2.000	1.100	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.100	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.700	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.020
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.225	0.125
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.620	-0.080
predicted_H	0.621	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.050
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.006
predicted_R	0.569	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.013
predicted_SO	0.924	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.225	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.035
predicted_BB	0.614	-0.006
predicted_H	0.611	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.044	0.000
predicted_HR	0.127	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.020
predicted_R	0.552	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.358	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.062
predicted_SO	0.933	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.3529	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	7.000	9.000	0.1613	0.3333	0.5806	0.1613	0.1290	0.1935	0.2258	0.2903
season	0.60	10	-	31.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	7.000	9.000	0.1613	0.3333	0.5806	0.1613	0.1290	0.1935	0.2258	0.2903

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.4880
predicted_AVG	0.1848
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_H	0.6450
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.2340
predicted_OBP	0.2865
predicted_R	0.5040
predicted_RBI	0.4950
predicted_SLG	0.4353
predicted_SO	0.9760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1610	0.1197	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1000	3.4880	3.2253	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1848	0.2249	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7000	0.4520	0.6199	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6450	0.6213	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.2340	0.1297	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2865	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.5040	0.5690	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.4950	0.3697	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4353	0.4080	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.9760	0.9245	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.161

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	691011
playerID	691011
playerName	Drew Romo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHW
teamID	6

Miguel Vargas (678246) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2381

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.675	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.675	4.000	-0.675	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.250	0.095	0.083
predicted_BB	0.725	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.725	0.000	0.275	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.250	0.130	0.250
predicted_R	0.775	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.775	1.000	0.225	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.575	0.000	-0.575	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.469	0.250	-0.136	0.083
predicted_SO	0.725	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.725	2.000	-0.725	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.675	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.725	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.775	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.725	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.007
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.657	-0.018
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.015
predicted_BB	0.682	-0.042
predicted_H	0.907	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.060	-
predicted_HR	0.170	0.060
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.033
predicted_R	0.786	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.525	0.105
predicted_SLG	0.454	0.059
predicted_SO	0.736	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.657	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.676	-0.006
predicted_H	0.892	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.060	0.000
predicted_HR	0.166	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.024
predicted_R	0.762	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.509	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.428	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.743	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.4118	0.4762	0.8235	0.4118	0.1177	0.2941	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	9.000	6.000	7.000	0.3056	0.4091	0.5833	0.3056	0.0833	0.2222	0.1667	0.1944
season	0.60	40	-	147.000	35.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	23.000	31.000	29.000	29.000	0.2381	0.3702	0.4694	0.2381	0.0612	0.1565	0.1973	0.1973

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.6320
predicted_AVG	0.2803
predicted_BB	0.6210
predicted_H	1.0180
predicted_HBP	0.0600
predicted_HR	0.2560
predicted_OBP	0.3858
predicted_R	0.8010
predicted_RBI	0.6780
predicted_SLG	0.5390
predicted_SO	0.7530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1420	0.1319	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0150	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6750	3.6320	3.6574	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2803	0.2588	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7250	0.6210	0.6825	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	1.0180	0.9068	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0600	0.0600	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2560	0.1696	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3858	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7750	0.8010	0.7856	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.6780	0.5254	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5390	0.4538	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7250	0.7530	0.7364	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	678246
playerID	678246
playerName	Miguel Vargas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Tristan Peters (671976) · BATTER · CF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 29

All-history rows before 20260515: 29

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2644

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	1.000	-0.138	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.500	-0.264	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.793	2.000	-0.793	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.500	-0.319	-0.500
predicted_R	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.276	1.000	-0.276	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.207	1.000	-0.207	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.310	0.750	-0.310	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.759	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.759	2.000	-0.759	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.241	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.276	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.759	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.041
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.079	0.079
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.009
predicted_BB	0.247	0.006
predicted_H	0.705	0.095
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.021
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.008
predicted_R	0.309	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.316	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.386	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.774	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.079	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.244	-0.002
predicted_H	0.694	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.030
predicted_R	0.300	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.306	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.045
predicted_SO	0.781	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3125	0.3529	0.5000	0.3125	0.1250	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.2759	0.3438	0.3793	0.2759	0.1379	0.1035	0.2759
season	0.60	29	-	87.000	23.000	4.000	6.000	8.000	7.000	22.000	0.2644	0.3191	0.3103	0.2644	0.0690	0.0805	0.2529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2450
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2080
predicted_AVG	0.2685
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	0.8610
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.3247
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.3250
predicted_SLG	0.3699
predicted_SO	0.8000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.2450	0.1786	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2080	3.0789	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2685	0.2533	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2410	0.2560	0.2467	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.8610	0.7052	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0250	0.0591	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3247	0.3125	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2760	0.3630	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3250	0.3157	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3699	0.3855	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7590	0.8000	0.7745	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	671976
playerID	671976
playerName	Tristan Peters
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Colson Montgomery (695657) · BATTER · SS · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2282

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.725	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.725	4.000	-1.725	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.750	0.272	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.375	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	1.625	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.850	3.000	0.150	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.275	1.000	-0.275	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.750	0.423	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	2.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.725	1.000	-0.725	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.503	1.500	-0.003	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.250	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	1.000	-1.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.725	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.753	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.367	-0.008
predicted_H	0.838	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.096	-
predicted_HR	0.171	0.061
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.003
predicted_R	0.519	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.552	0.142
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.040
predicted_SO	1.240	-0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.753	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.364	-0.003
predicted_H	0.824	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.096	0.000
predicted_HR	0.167	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.020
predicted_R	0.504	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.535	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.409	-0.027
predicted_SO	1.251	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.6000	0.2500	0.1000	0.3000	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	0.2105	0.3023	0.4474	0.2105	0.0526	0.1842	0.1316	0.3421
season	0.60	40	-	149.000	34.000	8.000	11.000	29.000	20.000	15.000	50.000	0.2282	0.3275	0.5034	0.2282	0.0738	0.1946	0.1007	0.3356

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7950
predicted_AVG	0.2312
predicted_BB	0.3550
predicted_H	0.8780
predicted_HBP	0.0960
predicted_HR	0.2600
predicted_OBP	0.3128
predicted_R	0.5480
predicted_RBI	0.7600
predicted_SLG	0.4940
predicted_SO	1.2250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2140	0.2057	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7250	3.7950	3.7534	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2312	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3550	0.3669	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8780	0.8376	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0960	0.0960	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2600	0.1709	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3128	0.3082	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5480	0.5195	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.7600	0.5522	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4940	0.4352	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.2250	1.2398	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	695657
playerID	695657
playerName	Colson Montgomery
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Andrew Benintendi (643217) · BATTER · DH · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 30

All-history rows before 20260515: 30

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2301

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	4.000	-0.767	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.103	0.333
predicted_BB	0.233	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	0.000	0.767	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	0.000	0.133	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.000	0.230	0.500
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	0.000	1.533	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.354	0.000	-0.021	0.333
predicted_SO	1.233	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.233	0.000	-0.233	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.767	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.233	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.054	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.698	-0.069
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.270	0.037
predicted_H	0.778	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.082	-0.018
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.014
predicted_R	0.402	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.403	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.356	-0.039
predicted_SO	1.133	-0.100

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	3.698	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.267	-0.003
predicted_H	0.766	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.031
predicted_R	0.390	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.391	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.024
predicted_SO	1.143	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.0667	0.2105	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0667	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2353	0.2821	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.0882	0.0882	0.2353
season	0.60	30	-	113.000	26.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	14.000	12.000	7.000	37.000	0.2301	0.2705	0.3540	0.2301	0.0177	0.1239	0.0619	0.3274

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0330
predicted_AB	3.5910
predicted_AVG	0.2074
predicted_BB	0.3260
predicted_H	0.7450
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.2696
predicted_R	0.4040
predicted_RBI	0.3920
predicted_SLG	0.2968
predicted_SO	0.9770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.0950	0.1181	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.0330	0.0537	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7670	3.5910	3.6980	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2074	0.2296	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.3260	0.2695	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.7450	0.7784	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0530	0.0816	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2696	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4040	0.4016	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.3920	0.4029	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2968	0.3565	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2330	0.9770	1.1326	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	643217
playerID	643217
playerName	Andrew Benintendi
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHW
teamID	6

Chase Meidroth (805367) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2848

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.225	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.225	0.000	0.775	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.775	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.775	3.000	0.225	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.285	0.667	-0.035	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.425	1.000	-0.425	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.075	2.000	-0.075	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.750	-0.103	-0.500
predicted_R	0.675	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.675	1.000	0.325	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	1.000	1.750	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.667	0.096	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.050	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.050	0.000	-1.050	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.775	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.425	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.675	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.050	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.732	-0.043
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.021
predicted_BB	0.384	-0.041
predicted_H	0.914	0.114
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.111	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.017
predicted_R	0.661	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.449	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.025
predicted_SO	1.044	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.732	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.381	-0.004
predicted_H	0.899	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.109	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.011
predicted_R	0.641	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.435	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.033
predicted_SO	1.054	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3125	0.3333	0.5625	0.3125	0.0625	0.3125	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	13.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	2.000	14.000	0.3514	0.3750	0.5676	0.3513	0.0541	0.1892	0.0541	0.3784
season	0.60	40	-	151.000	43.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	27.000	17.000	42.000	0.2848	0.3529	0.4040	0.2848	0.0199	0.0662	0.1126	0.2782

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2100
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6680
predicted_AVG	0.2947
predicted_BB	0.3240
predicted_H	1.0810
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1270
predicted_OBP	0.3462
predicted_R	0.6410
predicted_RBI	0.5050
predicted_SLG	0.4573
predicted_SO	1.0360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2250	0.2100	0.2189	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7750	3.6680	3.7315	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2947	0.2646	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4250	0.3240	0.3840	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	1.0810	0.9141	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1270	0.1110	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3462	0.3217	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6750	0.6410	0.6612	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5050	0.4486	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4573	0.4203	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0500	1.0360	1.0443	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.285

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	805367
playerID	805367
playerName	Chase Meidroth
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Burke (680732) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.250	2.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	2.250	6.000	-2.250	-6.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	4.750	6.000	-2.750	-4.000
predicted_IP	6.200	6.200	6.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.412	4.100	0.788	2.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	4.500	4.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 7.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	12.000	25.000	7.000	21.000	5.000	3.7241	1.1034	0.4138	0.8621	0.2414	0.7241	0.1724
last_10	0.35	8	44.000	18.000	38.000	10.000	36.000	5.000	3.6818	1.0909	0.4091	0.8636	0.2273	0.8182	0.1136
season	0.20	8	44.000	18.000	38.000	10.000	36.000	5.000	3.6818	1.0909	0.4091	0.8636	0.2273	0.8182	0.1136

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8260
predicted_ER	2.7030
predicted_ERA	3.8973
predicted_H	5.5680
predicted_HR	0.9000
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	5.2000
predicted_WHIP	1.1845

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.8260	1.9152	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.7030	1.3177	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8973	3.8973	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	5.5680	3.7394	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9000	0.4388	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	7.1000	6.1000	7.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.2000	5.0975	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1845	1.1845	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	5
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	98

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	3.68
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	2
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	74
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	680732
playerID	680732
playerName	Sean Burke
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Grant Taylor (691799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 6

All-history rows before 20260515: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.100	0.083	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	0.667	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125
last_10	0.35	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632
season	0.20	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_ER	0.3770
predicted_ERA	3.3903
predicted_H	0.9060
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0290
predicted_WHIP	1.2523

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3460	0.1081	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3770	0.1178	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3903	3.3903	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9060	0.2831	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1030	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0290	1.6966	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2523	1.2523	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260409_CHW@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691799
playerID	691799
playerName	Grant Taylor
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Seranthony Domínguez (622554) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 2

All-history rows before 20260515: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.500	2.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	0.100	0.450	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
season	0.20	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1400
predicted_ER	0.1810
predicted_ERA	4.6650
predicted_H	0.3520
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3190
predicted_WHIP	1.4052

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1400	0.7860	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.1810	2.2986	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6650	4.6650	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.3520	2.3412	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0560	0.7651	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3190	0.8306	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4052	1.4052	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	622554
playerID	622554
playerName	Seranthony Domínguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

20260515_CIN@CLE

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.523662, "home_win_probability": 0.523662, "away_win_probability": 0.47633800000000004, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 CLE", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 CLE", "confidence": 0.523662, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CIN 2 - 7 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -2, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CIN 4 - 5 CLE	CLE	0.524	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CIN 2 - 7 CLE	CLE	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CIN	3-7	0.300	4.90	5.30	-4	1W	average	weak
Home CLE	6-4	0.600	4.10	3.40	7	3W	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CIN	23-21	0.523	-26	-0.591	True
Home CLE	24-21	0.533	4	0.089	True
Signal	-	-	0.680	0.696	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CIN	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target CLE	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CIN	31	9	4	0	2	2	9
Player finalized CLE	31	9	4	0	1	5	7
Player model fractional CIN	31.74	7.09	4.07	1.04	3.69	3.97	8.18
Player model fractional CLE	31.00	7.07	4.40	0.93	3.83	4.51	6.47
Simulation box CIN	31	4	2	0	2	1	8
Simulation box CLE	33	10	7	3	7	3	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CIN	Starter	Andrew Abbott	4.20	5	4	8	3	3.95	1.39	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Graham Ashcraft	1.20	0	1	0	0	3.34	1.24	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Tony Santillan	1.20	2	1	2	0	5.30	1.45	True
Home CLE	Starter	Tanner Bibee	5.10	2	3	3	1	3.58	1.26	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Cade Smith	1	0	1	1	0	3.19	1.07	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Erik Sabrowski	1.20	0	2	0	0	2.53	1.11	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Matt Festa	1	0	2	0	0	4.41	1.32	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CIN

Will Benson (666181) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 21

All-history rows before 20260515: 21

System season_avg: 0.1580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1579

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3790

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	2.714	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.714	2.000	1.286	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.284	0.000	-0.284	0.000
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.048	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	2.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.060	0.012
predicted_3B	0.040	-0.008
predicted_AB	2.838	0.124
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.445	0.016
predicted_H	0.608	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.077	-
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.002
predicted_R	0.325	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.269	-0.051
predicted_SLG	0.359	-0.036
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.060	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	2.838	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.441	-0.004
predicted_H	0.594	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.074	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.009
predicted_R	0.311	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.257	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.022
predicted_SO	1.009	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.1538	0.3889	0.1538	0.1538	0.0000	0.0000	0.3077	0.3077
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	0.1724	0.3143	0.3103	0.1724	0.0345	0.0345	0.1724	0.4483
season	0.60	21	-	57.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	9.000	21.000	0.1579	0.2836	0.2632	0.1579	0.0175	0.0351	0.1579	0.3684

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.0590
predicted_AVG	0.1859
predicted_BB	0.4740
predicted_H	0.5690
predicted_HBP	0.0770
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.3091
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.1770
predicted_SLG	0.2952
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0480	0.0820	0.0602	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0260	0.0401	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7140	3.0590	2.8380	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1859	0.2231	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.4740	0.4452	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.5690	0.6081	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0770	0.0770	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0670	0.0753	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3091	0.3065	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.3950	0.3252	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.1770	0.2686	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2952	0.3591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.158

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	666181
playerID	666181
playerName	Will Benson
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 44

All-history rows before 20260515: 44

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2994

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	1.000	-0.227	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.023	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.023	4.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.500	-0.299	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.386	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.386	0.000	-0.386	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.205	2.000	-1.205	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.500	-0.359	-0.500
predicted_R	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	2.000	-0.750	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.659	0.000	-0.659	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.525	0.750	-0.525	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.227	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.227	1.000	-1.227	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.023	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.386	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.227	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.064	0.041
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.040
predicted_BB	0.335	-0.051
predicted_H	1.104	0.214
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.032
predicted_R	0.756	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.477	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.443	0.048
predicted_SO	1.183	-0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.064	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.333	-0.003
predicted_H	1.077	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.125	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.321	-0.016
predicted_R	0.724	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.457	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.419	-0.024
predicted_SO	1.193	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 4.023

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	5.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5909	0.5000	0.0000	0.0454	0.0000	0.2273
last_10	0.20	10	-	44.000	17.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	0.3864	0.3913	0.4773	0.3864	0.0000	0.0909	0.0227	0.2500
season	0.60	44	-	177.000	53.000	10.000	10.000	29.000	33.000	17.000	54.000	0.2994	0.3590	0.5254	0.2994	0.0565	0.1638	0.0960	0.3051

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1230
predicted_AVG	0.3418
predicted_BB	0.2630
predicted_H	1.4100
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.3819
predicted_R	0.7640
predicted_RBI	0.5170
predicted_SLG	0.5110
predicted_SO	1.1190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.2770	0.2476	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0230	4.1230	4.0641	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3418	0.2842	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3860	0.2630	0.3354	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.4100	1.1037	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1390	0.1278	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3819	0.3366	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.7640	0.7558	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5170	0.4775	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5110	0.4427	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2270	1.1190	1.1826	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 44

All-history rows before 20260515: 44

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2440

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.818	4.000	0.182	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.932	0.000	-0.932	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.200	-0.328	-0.200
predicted_R	0.591	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.591	0.000	-0.591	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.682	0.000	-0.682	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.470	0.000	-0.470	0.000
predicted_SO	0.864	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.864	3.000	0.136	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.818	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.591	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.864	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.864	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.475	-0.025
predicted_H	0.892	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.004
predicted_R	0.600	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.443	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.008
predicted_SO	0.936	0.072

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.864	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.470	-0.004
predicted_H	0.871	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.126	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.001
predicted_R	0.575	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.424	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.375	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.944	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.818

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.3333	0.2381	0.0000	0.0000	0.0952	0.3810
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	12.000	0.2195	0.2889	0.3415	0.2195	0.0244	0.0244	0.0976	0.2927
season	0.60	44	-	168.000	41.000	8.000	10.000	30.000	26.000	22.000	38.000	0.2440	0.3281	0.4702	0.2440	0.0595	0.1786	0.1310	0.2262

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2200
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9300
predicted_AVG	0.2387
predicted_BB	0.4380
predicted_H	0.9380
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.3141
predicted_R	0.6140
predicted_RBI	0.4470
predicted_SLG	0.4140
predicted_SO	1.0390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2200	0.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8180	3.9300	3.8640	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2387	0.2418	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4380	0.4746	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9380	0.8920	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1550	0.1285	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3141	0.3087	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5910	0.6140	0.6004	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4470	0.4429	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4140	0.4028	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8640	1.0390	0.9358	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 16

All-history rows before 20260515: 16

System season_avg: 0.3210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3208

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.312	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.312	5.000	0.688	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.321	0.600	-0.321	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.812	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.062	3.000	-1.062	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.375	2.000	-0.375	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.455	0.600	-0.455	-0.600
predicted_R	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	2.000	-0.625	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.125	6.000	-1.125	-6.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.755	1.800	-0.755	-1.800
predicted_SO	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	1.000	0.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.312	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.812	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.066	0.004
predicted_AB	3.395	0.083
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.023
predicted_BB	0.778	-0.034
predicted_H	0.854	0.134
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.169	0.079
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.041
predicted_R	0.620	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.646	0.276
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.097
predicted_SO	0.657	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.066	0.000
predicted_AB	3.395	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.771	-0.007
predicted_H	0.834	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.165	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.039
predicted_R	0.594	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.619	-0.028
predicted_SLG	0.486	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.663	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	0.4118	0.5652	0.9412	0.4118	0.1177	0.6471	0.3529	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	15.000	6.000	8.000	8.000	0.3158	0.4348	0.7368	0.3158	0.1053	0.3947	0.2105	0.2105
season	0.60	16	-	53.000	17.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	10.000	13.000	10.000	0.3208	0.4545	0.7547	0.3207	0.1132	0.3396	0.2453	0.1887

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0730
predicted_AB	3.5430
predicted_AVG	0.3086
predicted_BB	0.7160
predicted_H	1.0930
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.3090
predicted_OBP	0.4204
predicted_R	0.6120
predicted_RBI	1.1410
predicted_SLG	0.6653
predicted_SO	0.7140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1890	0.1884	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0730	0.0659	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3120	3.5430	3.3948	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3086	0.2672	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8120	0.7160	0.7776	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	1.0930	0.8538	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.3090	0.1685	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.4204	0.3464	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.6120	0.6203	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	1.1410	0.6465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.6653	0.4919	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.7140	0.6569	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.321

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	6
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	9
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tyler Stephenson (663886) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 31

All-history rows before 20260515: 31

System season_avg: 0.1730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1731

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2520

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	0.903	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.355	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.355	4.000	-0.355	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.173	0.250	0.160	0.083
predicted_BB	0.484	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.484	1.000	-0.484	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.581	1.000	0.419	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	1.000	-0.097	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.400	0.058	-0.067
predicted_R	0.161	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.161	1.000	0.839	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.355	4.000	1.645	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.288	1.000	0.378	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.097	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.097	1.000	0.903	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.355	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.484	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.161	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.097	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.439	0.084
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.454	-0.030
predicted_H	0.664	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.016
predicted_R	0.190	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.402	0.061
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.033
predicted_SO	1.069	-0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.439	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.450	-0.004
predicted_H	0.648	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.099	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.007
predicted_R	0.182	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.384	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.056
predicted_SO	1.079	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.2632	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	0.1892	0.2500	0.3243	0.1892	0.0270	0.1351	0.0811	0.2703
season	0.60	31	-	104.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	5.000	15.000	34.000	0.1731	0.2750	0.2885	0.1731	0.0289	0.1058	0.1442	0.3269

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5700
predicted_AVG	0.1790
predicted_BB	0.4070
predicted_H	0.6390
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.2636
predicted_R	0.2360
predicted_RBI	0.4970
predicted_SLG	0.3114
predicted_SO	1.0260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.1140	0.1037	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3550	3.5700	3.4392	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1790	0.2186	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4840	0.4070	0.4539	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.6390	0.6639	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1180	0.1010	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2636	0.2888	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1610	0.2360	0.1904	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4970	0.4015	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3114	0.3623	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0970	1.0260	1.0692	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.173

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663886
playerID	663886
playerName	Tyler Stephenson
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CIN
teamID	7

Ke'Bryan Hayes (663647) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 33

All-history rows before 20260515: 33

System season_avg: 0.1500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1495

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.061	1.000	-0.061	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.242	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.242	4.000	-0.242	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.150	0.500	-0.150	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.485	2.000	-0.485	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.202	0.500	-0.202	-0.500
predicted_R	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.242	1.000	-0.242	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.152	2.000	-0.152	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.243	0.750	-0.243	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.576	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.576	0.000	0.424	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.242	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.212	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.242	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.576	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	0.020
predicted_3B	0.025	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.294	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.197	-0.015
predicted_H	0.659	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.023
predicted_R	0.255	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.315	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.612	0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.294	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.195	-0.002
predicted_H	0.643	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.074	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.240	-0.042
predicted_R	0.244	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.302	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.302	-0.059
predicted_SO	0.618	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.3125	0.3125	0.3750	0.3125	0.0000	0.1250	0.0000	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.2059	0.2286	0.3235	0.2059	0.0294	0.1177	0.0294	0.2353
season	0.60	33	-	107.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	7.000	19.000	0.1495	0.2018	0.2430	0.1495	0.0187	0.0467	0.0654	0.1776

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.3760
predicted_AVG	0.2039
predicted_BB	0.1730
predicted_H	0.6880
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.2451
predicted_R	0.2760
predicted_RBI	0.2920
predicted_SLG	0.3082
predicted_SO	0.6690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0610	0.1120	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0180	0.0253	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2420	3.3760	3.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2039	0.2284	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2120	0.1730	0.1968	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.6880	0.6587	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0680	0.0753	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2451	0.2817	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2420	0.2760	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.2920	0.3152	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3082	0.3612	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5760	0.6690	0.6122	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663647
playerID	663647
playerName	Ke'Bryan Hayes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Nathaniel Lowe (663993) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 23

All-history rows before 20260515: 23

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2564

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.5450

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.391	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.391	3.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.478	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.478	2.000	-0.478	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.870	0.000	-0.870	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.400	-0.348	-0.400
predicted_R	0.435	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.435	1.000	-0.435	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.652	0.000	-0.652	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.551	0.000	-0.551	0.000
predicted_SO	0.913	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.913	2.000	-0.913	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.391	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.478	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.435	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.913	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.442	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.469	-0.009
predicted_H	0.774	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.045
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.011
predicted_R	0.436	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.030
predicted_SO	0.964	0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.442	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.465	-0.004
predicted_H	0.756	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.133	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.003
predicted_R	0.418	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.409	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.973	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.545)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	14.000	0.2353	0.3333	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.1471	0.1471	0.4118
season	0.60	23	-	78.000	20.000	5.000	6.000	15.000	10.000	11.000	21.000	0.2564	0.3483	0.5513	0.2564	0.0769	0.1923	0.1410	0.2692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5260
predicted_AVG	0.2450
predicted_BB	0.4550
predicted_H	0.8640
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.2100
predicted_OBP	0.3330
predicted_R	0.4390
predicted_RBI	0.5220
predicted_SLG	0.4754
predicted_SO	1.0490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2170	0.1740	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3910	3.5260	3.4418	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2450	0.2444	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4780	0.4550	0.4693	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8640	0.7742	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.2100	0.1352	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3330	0.3155	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4350	0.4390	0.4365	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.5220	0.4272	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4754	0.4253	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9130	1.0490	0.9642	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663993
playerID	663993
playerName	Nathaniel Lowe
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2534

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2510

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.561	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.561	4.000	0.439	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.500	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.341	1.000	-0.341	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.902	2.000	1.098	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.600	0.171	-0.100
predicted_R	0.512	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.512	3.000	0.488	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.445	0.500	0.305	0.250
predicted_SO	0.878	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.878	0.000	0.122	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.561	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.341	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.878	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.656	0.095
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.011
predicted_BB	0.345	0.004
predicted_H	0.865	0.115
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.029
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.014
predicted_R	0.604	0.092
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.024
predicted_SO	0.812	-0.066

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.656	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.343	-0.003
predicted_H	0.844	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.044	0.000
predicted_HR	0.127	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.023
predicted_R	0.578	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.364	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.820	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.5238	0.3333	0.0476	0.0952	0.0952	0.0476
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	4.000	5.000	0.2927	0.3556	0.4634	0.2927	0.0488	0.0976	0.0976	0.1220
season	0.60	41	-	146.000	37.000	7.000	7.000	14.000	21.000	14.000	36.000	0.2534	0.3293	0.4452	0.2534	0.0479	0.0959	0.0959	0.2466

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7970
predicted_AVG	0.2721
predicted_BB	0.3520
predicted_H	1.0330
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_OBP	0.3405
predicted_R	0.7390
predicted_RBI	0.3810
predicted_SLG	0.4537
predicted_SO	0.7160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1660	0.1690	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5610	3.7970	3.6565	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2721	0.2554	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3410	0.3520	0.3455	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	1.0330	0.8646	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1730	0.1295	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3405	0.3194	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.7390	0.6039	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3810	0.3804	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4537	0.4188	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8780	0.7160	0.8124	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-2B
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2171

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2520

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	3.000	-1.800	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.667	0.283	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.525	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.525	1.000	0.475	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.825	2.000	0.175	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.667	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.750	0.347	-0.083
predicted_R	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.450	3.000	-0.450	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	2.000	-0.400	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.349	2.000	0.151	-1.500
predicted_SO	0.975	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.975	0.000	-0.975	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.525	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.975	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.744	-0.056
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.508	-0.017
predicted_H	0.847	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.012
predicted_R	0.468	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.499	0.079
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.011
predicted_SO	0.876	-0.099

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.744	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.503	-0.004
predicted_H	0.827	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.004
predicted_R	0.448	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.478	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.883	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.5882	0.2941	0.0588	0.3529	0.1765	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	0.2647	0.3421	0.5000	0.2647	0.0588	0.2059	0.1177	0.0882
season	0.60	40	-	152.000	33.000	8.000	4.000	16.000	18.000	21.000	39.000	0.2171	0.3200	0.3487	0.2171	0.0263	0.1053	0.1382	0.2566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2340
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6630
predicted_AVG	0.2423
predicted_BB	0.4830
predicted_H	0.8870
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.3353
predicted_R	0.4940
predicted_RBI	0.6140
predicted_SLG	0.4221
predicted_SO	0.7310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2340	0.2138	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.6630	3.7442	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2423	0.2433	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5250	0.4830	0.5079	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8870	0.8473	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1400	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3353	0.3173	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.4940	0.4679	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.6140	0.4990	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4221	0.4060	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9750	0.7310	0.8756	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-SS
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Andrew Abbott (671096) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 9

All-history rows before 20260515: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.222	1.000	0.778	2.000
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_ER	2.556	0.000	2.444	5.000
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	5.556	3.000	2.444	5.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.967	6.000	-0.767	-1.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	3.667	5.000	0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.100	10.000	24.000	12.000	21.000	3.000	3.4177	1.3671	0.3797	0.9114	0.4557	0.7975	0.1139
last_10	0.35	9	46.100	23.000	50.000	20.000	33.000	5.000	4.4676	1.5108	0.4964	1.0791	0.4316	0.7122	0.1079
season	0.20	9	46.100	23.000	50.000	20.000	33.000	5.000	4.4676	1.5108	0.4964	1.0791	0.4316	0.7122	0.1079

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2220
predicted_ER	2.3070
predicted_ERA	3.9545
predicted_H	5.0550
predicted_HR	0.6190
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.3810
predicted_WHIP	1.3859

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.2220	2.6117	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	2.3070	3.6559	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9545	3.9545	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	5.0550	6.5301	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6190	0.8098	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.3810	4.1902	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3859	1.3859	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	8
R	5
ER	5
BB	3
SO	4
HR	1
BF	25
Pitches	102

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.47
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	85
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	671096
playerID	671096
playerName	Andrew Abbott
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 21

All-history rows before 20260515: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.619	1.000	-0.619	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.619	0.000	-0.619	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.976	1.000	0.224	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.190	1.000	-0.190	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.3529	0.7059	1.4118	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	5.000	8.000	12.000	1.000	1.6875	1.2188	0.1875	0.4688	0.7500	1.1250	0.0938
season	0.20	21	21.200	4.000	13.000	13.000	25.000	1.000	1.6615	1.2000	0.1846	0.6000	0.6000	1.1539	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5290
predicted_ER	0.3710
predicted_ERA	3.3426
predicted_H	0.7090
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0980
predicted_WHIP	1.2384

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5290	0.2238	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3710	0.1570	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3426	3.3426	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7090	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1260	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0980	1.0415	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2384	1.2384	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.579	1.000	1.421	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.895	1.000	1.105	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.858	1.000	0.342	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.895	0.000	0.105	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	4.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.3077	1.8462	0.9231	1.3846	0.4615	0.6923	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	11.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	7.0000	1.5556	0.7778	1.2222	0.3333	0.7778	0.5556
season	0.20	18	17.000	7.000	13.000	9.000	17.000	5.000	3.7059	1.2941	0.4118	0.7647	0.5294	1.0000	0.2941

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4010
predicted_ER	0.5890
predicted_ERA	5.2988
predicted_H	1.0460
predicted_HR	0.3050
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8890
predicted_WHIP	1.4470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4010	0.1596	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.5890	1.4385	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2988	5.2988	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0460	1.6204	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.3050	1.3255	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8890	0.9558	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4470	1.4470	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	2
BF	7
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.82
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Home Team: CLE

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 45

All-history rows before 20260515: 45

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2073

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.644	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.644	2.000	0.356	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.043	0.250
predicted_BB	0.711	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.711	1.000	-0.711	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.756	0.000	0.244	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.500	-0.090	-0.250
predicted_R	0.578	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.578	1.000	0.422	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.356	0.000	-0.356	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.000	-0.116	0.250
predicted_SO	0.622	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.622	0.000	-0.622	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.644	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.711	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.578	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.622	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.639	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.702	-0.009
predicted_H	0.759	-0.051
predicted_HBP	0.069	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.010
predicted_R	0.562	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.371	-0.039
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.043
predicted_SO	0.660	0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.639	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.708	0.006
predicted_H	0.783	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.069	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.028
predicted_R	0.593	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.391	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.655	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.1111	0.3043	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	8.000	8.000	0.1714	0.3409	0.1714	0.1714	0.0000	0.0571	0.2286	0.2286
season	0.60	45	-	164.000	34.000	8.000	6.000	16.000	26.000	32.000	28.000	0.2073	0.3401	0.3659	0.2073	0.0366	0.0976	0.1951	0.1707

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6320
predicted_AVG	0.1892
predicted_BB	0.6890
predicted_H	0.6870
predicted_HBP	0.0690
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.3294
predicted_R	0.5400
predicted_RBI	0.3150
predicted_SLG	0.2917
predicted_SO	0.7150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1780	0.1150	0.1521	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6440	3.6320	3.6391	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1892	0.2215	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7110	0.6890	0.7020	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.6870	0.7594	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0690	0.0690	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0850	0.0997	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3294	0.3150	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5780	0.5400	0.5624	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.3150	0.3709	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2917	0.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6220	0.7150	0.6603	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

Steven Kwan (680757) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2065

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.875	3.000	1.125	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.333	0.194	0.067
predicted_BB	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.550	1.000	-0.550	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.500	0.089	-0.100
predicted_R	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.225	0.000	0.775	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.265	0.333	0.135	0.067
predicted_SO	0.525	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.525	0.000	0.475	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.550	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.525	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.846	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.579	0.029
predicted_H	0.837	-0.073
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.083	-0.037
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.003
predicted_R	0.459	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.353	-0.107
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.056
predicted_SO	0.548	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.846	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.002
predicted_BB	0.583	0.005
predicted_H	0.863	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.047	0.000
predicted_HR	0.086	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.019
predicted_R	0.484	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.372	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.331	-0.008
predicted_SO	0.544	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.875

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	0.1667	0.3478	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.2778	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	0.1316	0.2826	0.1579	0.1316	0.0000	0.0263	0.1842	0.1316
season	0.60	40	-	155.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	18.000	22.000	21.000	0.2065	0.3111	0.2645	0.2064	0.0065	0.0581	0.1419	0.1355

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8040
predicted_AVG	0.1922
predicted_BB	0.6200
predicted_H	0.7310
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.3117
predicted_R	0.4730
predicted_RBI	0.1980
predicted_SLG	0.2575
predicted_SO	0.5820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1550	0.1520	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8750	3.8040	3.8460	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1922	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5500	0.6200	0.5786	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.7310	0.8369	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.0300	0.0833	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3117	0.3077	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.4730	0.4594	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.1980	0.3531	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2575	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5250	0.5820	0.5483	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	680757
playerID	680757
playerName	Steven Kwan
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

David Fry (681807) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 17

All-history rows before 20260515: 17

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2800

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.941	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.941	3.000	0.059	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.529	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.529	0.000	0.471	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.824	0.000	-0.824	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.390	0.000	-0.140	0.250
predicted_R	0.588	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	1.059	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.059	1.000	-1.059	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.941	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.529	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.588	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.059	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.066	0.125
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.010
predicted_BB	0.490	-0.039
predicted_H	0.718	0.098
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.117	0.037
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.018
predicted_R	0.579	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.416	0.096
predicted_SLG	0.427	0.032
predicted_SO	1.009	-0.050

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.066	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.494	0.004
predicted_H	0.741	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.024
predicted_R	0.610	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.439	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.026
predicted_SO	1.000	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.2941	0.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	5.000	8.000	0.3000	0.4000	0.6333	0.3000	0.1000	0.2667	0.1667	0.2667
season	0.60	17	-	50.000	14.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	10.000	9.000	18.000	0.2800	0.3898	0.5000	0.2800	0.0600	0.1600	0.1800	0.3600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2980
predicted_AVG	0.2723
predicted_BB	0.4180
predicted_H	0.8980
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1840
predicted_OBP	0.3552
predicted_R	0.5610
predicted_RBI	0.5930
predicted_SLG	0.4860
predicted_SO	0.9160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1450	0.1275	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9410	3.2980	3.0664	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2723	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5290	0.4180	0.4900	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.8980	0.7177	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1840	0.1165	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3552	0.3226	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5880	0.5610	0.5785	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.5930	0.4159	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4860	0.4270	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0590	0.9160	1.0088	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	681807
playerID	681807
playerName	David Fry
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Angel Martínez (682657) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 32

All-history rows before 20260515: 32

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2764

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.844	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.844	4.000	-0.844	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.250	0.057	0.083
predicted_BB	0.156	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.156	0.000	0.844	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.062	1.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.219	1.000	0.781	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.250	0.179	0.250
predicted_R	0.531	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.531	2.000	0.469	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	1.000	0.438	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.504	1.000	0.829	0.333
predicted_SO	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	2.000	0.125	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.844	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.156	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.531	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.854	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.003
predicted_BB	0.159	0.003
predicted_H	0.879	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.100	-
predicted_HR	0.156	0.046
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.003
predicted_R	0.543	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.455	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.029
predicted_SO	0.927	0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.854	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.160	0.001
predicted_H	0.907	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.100	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.037
predicted_R	0.573	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.920	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.844

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.5000	0.2000	0.1000	0.1500	0.0000	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	12.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.4103	0.2308	0.0513	0.0769	0.0513	0.3077
season	0.60	32	-	123.000	34.000	7.000	7.000	18.000	17.000	5.000	28.000	0.2764	0.3206	0.5041	0.2764	0.0569	0.1463	0.0406	0.2276

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1580
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8700
predicted_AVG	0.2505
predicted_BB	0.1630
predicted_H	0.9690
predicted_HBP	0.1000
predicted_HR	0.2260
predicted_OBP	0.2987
predicted_R	0.5620
predicted_RBI	0.5090
predicted_SLG	0.4677
predicted_SO	1.0070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2190	0.1580	0.1949	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8440	3.8700	3.8543	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2505	0.2466	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1560	0.1630	0.1588	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9690	0.8789	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1000	0.1000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2260	0.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2987	0.3025	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5310	0.5620	0.5433	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5090	0.4552	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4677	0.4238	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	1.0070	0.9272	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682657
playerID	682657
playerName	Angel Martínez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Chase DeLauter (800050) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 37

All-history rows before 20260515: 37

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2908

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.811	3.000	0.189	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.667	-0.291	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.514	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.108	2.000	-1.108	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.500	-0.370	-0.500
predicted_R	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.703	1.000	-0.703	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.504	0.667	-0.504	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.432	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.432	0.000	0.568	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.811	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.514	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.432	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.023	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.809	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.012
predicted_BB	0.490	-0.024
predicted_H	0.934	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.113	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.017
predicted_R	0.411	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.518	0.078
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.013
predicted_SO	0.434	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.809	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.494	0.004
predicted_H	0.964	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.116	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.017
predicted_R	0.434	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.546	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.012
predicted_SO	0.430	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.811

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.2105	0.2727	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.1053	0.0526
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	0.3158	0.3864	0.4474	0.3158	0.0263	0.1579	0.1316	0.0790
season	0.60	37	-	141.000	41.000	10.000	1.000	6.000	26.000	16.000	19.000	16.000	0.2908	0.3704	0.5035	0.2908	0.0425	0.1844	0.1348	0.1135

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.8050
predicted_AVG	0.2741
predicted_BB	0.4560
predicted_H	1.0430
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.3465
predicted_R	0.3810
predicted_RBI	0.6320
predicted_SLG	0.4276
predicted_SO	0.4370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2700	0.1990	0.2413	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0160	0.0226	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8110	3.8050	3.8086	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2741	0.2562	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5140	0.4560	0.4905	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	1.0430	0.9340	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1180	0.1132	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3465	0.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.3810	0.4114	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.6320	0.5176	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4276	0.4082	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4320	0.4370	0.4340	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	800050
playerID	800050
playerName	Chase DeLauter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Brayan Rocchio (677587) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2746

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.302	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.302	3.000	0.698	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.750	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.475	0.750
predicted_BB	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.907	0.000	2.093	3.000
predicted_HR	0.090	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.070	0.000	1.930	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.000	0.400	0.750
predicted_R	0.395	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.395	0.000	0.605	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	0.000	2.488	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	2.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.373	0.000	1.877	2.250
predicted_SO	0.372	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.372	2.000	-0.372	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.302	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.326	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.395	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.372	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.347	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.015
predicted_BB	0.314	-0.013
predicted_H	0.775	0.125
predicted_HBP	0.058	-
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.014
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.015
predicted_R	0.395	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.393	0.063
predicted_SLG	0.385	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.411	0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.347	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.316	0.003
predicted_H	0.800	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.058	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.016
predicted_R	0.416	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.414	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.407	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3529	0.3684	0.4118	0.3529	0.0000	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2647	0.3333	0.2941	0.2647	0.0000	0.0882	0.0882	0.1471
season	0.60	43	-	142.000	39.000	5.000	3.000	22.000	17.000	14.000	16.000	0.2746	0.3500	0.3732	0.2747	0.0211	0.1549	0.0986	0.1127

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4130
predicted_AVG	0.2813
predicted_BB	0.2950
predicted_H	0.9600
predicted_HBP	0.0580
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3432
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.4860
predicted_SLG	0.3697
predicted_SO	0.4680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1160	0.1370	0.1245	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3020	3.4130	3.3468	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2813	0.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3260	0.2950	0.3135	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.9600	0.7752	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0580	0.0580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0540	0.0755	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3432	0.3204	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3950	0.3950	0.3950	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4860	0.3930	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3697	0.3848	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3720	0.4680	0.4108	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	677587
playerID	677587
playerName	Brayan Rocchio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

Travis Bazzana (683953) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 14

All-history rows before 20260515: 14

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.214	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.214	4.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.500	0.111	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	2.000	0.286	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.407	0.500	0.093	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.311	0.500	0.022	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.643	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.643	1.000	0.357	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.214	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.857	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.643	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.272	0.058
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.799	-0.058
predicted_H	0.736	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.127	-
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.029
predicted_R	0.470	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.381	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.658	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.272	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.805	0.007
predicted_H	0.760	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.127	0.000
predicted_HR	0.089	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.384	0.050
predicted_R	0.495	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.401	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.652	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	0.2667	0.4762	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.1333	0.3333	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	0.2812	0.4390	0.4062	0.2812	0.0312	0.1250	0.2188	0.1562
season	0.60	14	-	45.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	12.000	9.000	0.2222	0.4068	0.3111	0.2222	0.0222	0.1333	0.2667	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1280
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3800
predicted_AVG	0.2432
predicted_BB	0.6910
predicted_H	0.8220
predicted_HBP	0.1270
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.3861
predicted_R	0.4140
predicted_RBI	0.4370
predicted_SLG	0.3548
predicted_SO	0.6850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.1280	0.0910	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2140	3.3800	3.2723	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2432	0.2437	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8570	0.6910	0.7987	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8220	0.7364	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1270	0.1270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0800	0.0865	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3861	0.3335	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4140	0.4698	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4370	0.3806	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3548	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6430	0.6850	0.6578	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	683953
playerID	683953
playerName	Travis Bazzana
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Rhys Hoskins (656555) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 28

All-history rows before 20260515: 28

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2045

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	1.786	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	2.000	0.857	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.500	0.295	0.000
predicted_BB	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.643	1.000	1.357	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.667	0.149	-0.167
predicted_R	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.464	0.000	-0.464	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.500	0.625	0.500
predicted_SO	1.071	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.071	1.000	-0.071	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.714	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.071	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.118	-0.025
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.744	0.030
predicted_H	0.654	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.113	0.023
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.020
predicted_R	0.568	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.100
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.001
predicted_SO	1.056	-0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.118	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.750	0.006
predicted_H	0.675	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.041	0.000
predicted_HR	0.116	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.044
predicted_R	0.599	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.474	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.006
predicted_SO	1.047	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	0.1667	0.4211	0.4167	0.1667	0.0833	0.3333	0.5000	0.4167
last_10	0.20	10	-	26.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	9.000	10.000	0.1538	0.3684	0.4231	0.1538	0.0769	0.3077	0.3462	0.3846
season	0.60	28	-	88.000	18.000	6.000	3.000	13.000	16.000	20.000	30.000	0.2045	0.3514	0.3750	0.2046	0.0341	0.1477	0.2273	0.3409

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1490
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.0790
predicted_AVG	0.1989
predicted_BB	0.7900
predicted_H	0.6130
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3553
predicted_R	0.5640
predicted_RBI	0.6070
predicted_SLG	0.3933
predicted_SO	1.0320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.1490	0.1888	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.0790	3.1182	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1989	0.2265	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7140	0.7900	0.7435	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.6130	0.6540	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1480	0.1125	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3553	0.3245	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.5640	0.5683	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.6070	0.4497	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3933	0.3943	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0710	1.0320	1.0559	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	656555
playerID	656555
playerName	Rhys Hoskins
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Patrick Bailey (672275) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 2

All-history rows before 20260515: 2

System season_avg: 0.1380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.1380

System opponent_avg: 0.1550

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by 0.1380. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.500	2.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.172	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.793	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.207	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.172	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.793	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.014	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.045	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.193	-0.014
predicted_H	0.555	-0.054
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.065	-0.015
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.042
predicted_R	0.181	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.291	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.322	-0.073
predicted_SO	0.822	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.014	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.045	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.195	0.002
predicted_H	0.573	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.067	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.237	-0.026
predicted_R	0.191	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.307	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.260	-0.062
predicted_SO	0.815	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.0769	0.0769	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.0769	0.0000	0.3077
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	0.1034	0.1333	0.1034	0.1035	0.0000	0.0690	0.0345	0.3793
season	0.60	29	-	87.000	12.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	6.000	23.000	0.1379	0.1935	0.1724	0.1379	0.0115	0.0690	0.0690	0.2644

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0360
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1190
predicted_AVG	0.1493
predicted_BB	0.1710
predicted_H	0.4660
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.1941
predicted_R	0.1970
predicted_RBI	0.2610
predicted_SLG	0.2017
predicted_SO	0.8690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0360	0.0136	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.1190	3.0451	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1493	0.2081	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2070	0.1710	0.1934	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.4660	0.5555	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0410	0.0652	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.1941	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1720	0.1970	0.1815	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.2610	0.2914	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2017	0.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7930	0.8690	0.8218	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.138

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	672275
playerID	672275
playerName	Patrick Bailey
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CLE
teamID	8

Tanner Bibee (676440) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 9

All-history rows before 20260515: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.333	1.000	-0.333	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.778	1.000	-1.778	2.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.933	6.000	0.167	-0.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	5.000	9.000	-2.000	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	8.000	19.000	12.000	27.000	3.000	2.6667	1.1481	0.2963	0.7037	0.4444	1.0000	0.1111
last_10	0.35	9	45.100	21.000	43.000	18.000	45.000	7.000	4.1691	1.3456	0.4632	0.9485	0.3971	0.9927	0.1544
season	0.20	9	45.100	21.000	43.000	18.000	45.000	7.000	4.1691	1.3456	0.4632	0.9485	0.3971	0.9927	0.1544

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1540
predicted_ER	2.0910
predicted_ERA	3.5833
predicted_H	4.4540
predicted_HR	0.6730
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.1650
predicted_WHIP	1.2584

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.1540	1.5760	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0910	2.0454	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5833	3.5833	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.4540	3.7257	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6730	0.3359	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.1650	4.0806	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2584	1.2584	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.17
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	98
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	676440
playerID	676440
playerName	Tanner Bibee
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.950	0.000	0.050	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.010	1.000	-0.010	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.450	3.000	-0.450	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	3.000	0.000	11.000	0.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.5625	0.0000	2.0625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	1.000	18.000	0.000	1.6875	0.8438	0.1875	0.7500	0.0938	1.6875	0.0000
season	0.20	20	20.200	7.000	19.000	4.000	29.000	1.000	3.0484	1.1129	0.3387	0.9194	0.1935	1.4032	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2420
predicted_ER	0.3540
predicted_ERA	3.1870
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3380
predicted_WHIP	1.0726

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2420	0.1012	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3540	0.1480	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1870	3.1870	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8310	0.9293	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0314	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3380	1.1413	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0726	1.0726	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.05
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 22

All-history rows before 20260515: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.709	1.000	0.491	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.591	3.000	0.409	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	4.000	11.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8571	0.0000	0.0000	0.8571	2.3571	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	0.000	2.000	5.000	17.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8077	0.0000	0.2308	0.5769	1.9615	0.0000
season	0.20	22	19.100	4.000	7.000	10.000	35.000	1.000	1.8621	0.8793	0.2069	0.3621	0.5172	1.8103	0.0517

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5160
predicted_ER	0.2820
predicted_ERA	2.5339
predicted_H	0.5980
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.4590
predicted_WHIP	1.1135

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5160	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2820	0.1159	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5339	2.5339	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5980	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0770	0.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.4590	1.7776	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1135	1.1135	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	2
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.832	0.100	0.168	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.053	0.000	0.947	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	5.7857	1.5000	0.6429	1.0714	0.4286	1.2857	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	3.000	6.000	4.000	11.000	2.000	3.1154	1.1538	0.3462	0.6923	0.4615	1.2692	0.2308
season	0.20	19	20.000	11.000	19.000	5.000	20.000	4.000	4.9500	1.2000	0.5500	0.9500	0.2500	1.0000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3920
predicted_ER	0.4900
predicted_ERA	4.4122
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HR	0.2110
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0760
predicted_WHIP	1.3198

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3920	0.1626	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4900	0.2032	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4122	4.4122	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9280	0.3849	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2110	0.0875	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0760	1.6168	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3198	1.3198	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.95
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	4
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	2
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

20260515_KC@STL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.529472, "home_win_probability": 0.529472, "away_win_probability": 0.47052799999999995, "predicted_score_text": "KC 3 - 4 STL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "KC 3 - 4 STL", "confidence": 0.529472, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 3 - 4 STL", "winner": "STL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 2 - 4 STL", "winner": "STL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	KC 3 - 4 STL	STL	0.529	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	KC 2 - 4 STL	STL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away KC	4-6	0.400	4.10	4.40	-3	4L	average	average
Home STL	5-5	0.500	3.40	3.50	-1	1W	cold	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away KC	19-25	0.432	-20	-0.455	True
Home STL	25-18	0.581	2	0.047	True
Signal	-	-	0.501	0.725	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target KC	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target STL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized KC	32	9	2	0	0	0	9
Player finalized STL	34	9	4	0	4	2	9
Player model fractional KC	32.23	7.09	3.85	0.94	3.49	3.01	7.99
Player model fractional STL	33.21	7.69	4.64	0.98	3.93	3.25	7.92
Simulation box KC	32	5	2	2	2	3	11
Simulation box STL	31	8	4	1	4	3	9

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away KC	Starter	Michael Wacha	6.10	2	7	5	1	3.87	1.20	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Lucas Erceg	1.20	0	2	0	0	3.37	1.28	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Matt Strahm	0	2	0	3	2	4.00	1.22	True
Home STL	Starter	Dustin May	5.10	1	8	2	2	3.72	1.32	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	George Soriano	1.10	0	2	1	0	3.40	1.36	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	JoJo Romero	1	0	0	1	1	3.76	1.31	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	Riley O'Brien	1.10	1	1	1	0	4.17	1.17	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: KC

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2761

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2930

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.976	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.976	5.000	-1.976	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.200	-0.276	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.439	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.439	0.000	1.561	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.098	1.000	-1.098	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.200	0.156	0.300
predicted_R	0.537	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.537	1.000	-0.537	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.439	1.000	-0.439	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.200	-0.417	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.683	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.683	0.000	-0.683	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.976	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.439	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.537	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.683	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.295	0.002
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.941	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.015
predicted_BB	0.468	0.029
predicted_H	0.996	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.093	-0.027
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.023
predicted_R	0.551	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.481	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.005
predicted_SO	0.653	-0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.295	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.941	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.460	-0.007
predicted_H	0.962	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.089	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.005
predicted_R	0.517	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.452	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.003
predicted_SO	0.663	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.976

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	0.3158	0.4348	0.4211	0.3158	0.0000	0.1579	0.2105	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	0.2895	0.3864	0.3684	0.2895	0.0000	0.1316	0.1579	0.1053
season	0.60	41	-	163.000	45.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	22.000	18.000	28.000	0.2761	0.3443	0.4172	0.2761	0.0184	0.1104	0.1104	0.1718

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2970
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8900
predicted_AVG	0.2807
predicted_BB	0.5090
predicted_H	1.0920
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3616
predicted_R	0.5710
predicted_RBI	0.4830
predicted_SLG	0.4063
predicted_SO	0.6090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2930	0.2970	0.2946	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9760	3.8900	3.9408	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2807	0.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4390	0.5090	0.4676	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0920	0.9962	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.0540	0.0930	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3616	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5370	0.5710	0.5509	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4830	0.4812	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4063	0.3996	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6830	0.6090	0.6527	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Vinnie Pasquantino (686469) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2051

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	3.805	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.805	4.000	0.195	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.439	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.780	0.000	-0.780	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.285	0.000	-0.285	0.000
predicted_R	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.390	0.000	-0.390	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	0.854	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.854	1.000	1.146	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-
predicted_3B	0.049	-
predicted_AB	3.805	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.439	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.390	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.854	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.040	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.832	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.397	-0.042
predicted_H	0.874	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.004
predicted_R	0.357	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.472	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.376	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.820	-0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.832	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.391	-0.006
predicted_H	0.844	-0.030
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.101	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.009
predicted_R	0.336	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.444	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.833	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.805

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.3000	0.3000	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.3500	0.2500	0.0250	0.1250	0.0500	0.1500
season	0.60	41	-	156.000	32.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	21.000	16.000	18.000	35.000	0.2051	0.2849	0.3526	0.2051	0.0321	0.1346	0.1154	0.2244

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0940
predicted_3B	0.0280
predicted_AB	3.8700
predicted_AVG	0.2346
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_H	0.9080
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.2963
predicted_R	0.3100
predicted_RBI	0.5190
predicted_SLG	0.3492
predicted_SO	0.7700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0980	0.0940	0.0964	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0490	0.0280	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8050	3.8700	3.8315	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2346	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4390	0.3370	0.3974	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9080	0.8737	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0980	0.1051	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2963	0.3015	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3900	0.3100	0.3574	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5190	0.4722	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3492	0.3763	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8540	0.7700	0.8197	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	686469
playerID	686469
playerName	Vinnie Pasquantino
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	KC
teamID	12

Jac Caglianone (695506) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 34

All-history rows before 20260515: 34

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2314

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	0.000	0.794	1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.559	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.559	4.000	0.441	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.019	0.250
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.824	0.000	0.176	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.000	-0.056	0.250
predicted_R	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.000	0.120	0.500
predicted_SO	1.147	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.147	1.000	-0.147	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.559	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.147	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.215	0.010
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.614	0.055
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.294	-0.030
predicted_H	0.790	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.010
predicted_R	0.489	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.330	-0.060
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.007
predicted_SO	1.084	-0.063

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.215	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.614	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.289	-0.005
predicted_H	0.763	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.036	0.000
predicted_HR	0.096	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.270	-0.026
predicted_R	0.459	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.310	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.101	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	0.2162	0.2564	0.4324	0.2162	0.0541	0.1081	0.0541	0.2162
season	0.60	34	-	121.000	28.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	16.000	11.000	39.000	0.2314	0.3060	0.3802	0.2314	0.0248	0.0496	0.0909	0.3223

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2300
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.6970
predicted_AVG	0.2261
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_H	0.8360
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.2805
predicted_R	0.5160
predicted_RBI	0.2390
predicted_SLG	0.3782
predicted_SO	0.9880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.2300	0.2155	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0170	0.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5590	3.6970	3.6137	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2261	0.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.2480	0.2939	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8360	0.7901	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0990	0.0996	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2805	0.2953	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.5160	0.4888	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.2390	0.3301	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3782	0.3883	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1470	0.9880	1.0840	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	695506
playerID	695506
playerName	Jac Caglianone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Carter Jensen (695600) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 35

All-history rows before 20260515: 35

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2269

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.086	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.333	0.273	0.167
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	1.000	-0.486	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.771	1.000	1.229	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	1.829	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.500	0.176	0.000
predicted_R	0.486	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.486	1.000	0.514	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	1.486	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	2.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.403	0.333	1.597	1.667
predicted_SO	1.200	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	2.000	-1.200	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.376	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.507	0.021
predicted_H	0.708	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.005
predicted_R	0.491	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.374	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.203	0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.376	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.499	-0.008
predicted_H	0.683	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.091	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.004
predicted_R	0.461	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.351	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.314	-0.060
predicted_SO	1.222	0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.2143	0.3684	0.2857	0.2143	0.0000	0.0714	0.2857	0.4286
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	15.000	0.1250	0.2564	0.1562	0.1250	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875	0.4688
season	0.60	35	-	119.000	27.000	3.000	6.000	18.000	17.000	17.000	42.000	0.2269	0.3237	0.4034	0.2269	0.0504	0.1513	0.1429	0.3529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1260
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3390
predicted_AVG	0.2111
predicted_BB	0.5400
predicted_H	0.7050
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_OBP	0.3167
predicted_R	0.4990
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.3418
predicted_SO	1.2080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0860	0.1260	0.1019	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.3390	3.3757	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2111	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.5400	0.5075	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7050	0.7080	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1020	0.0948	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3167	0.3097	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.4990	0.4912	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3960	0.3743	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3418	0.3738	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.2080	1.2032	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	695600
playerID	695600
playerName	Carter Jensen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Michael Massey (686681) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 24

All-history rows before 20260515: 24

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2361

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.000	-0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.708	0.000	-0.708	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_SO	0.708	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.708	0.000	1.292	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.292	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.083	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.708	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.062	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.004
predicted_BB	0.097	0.014
predicted_H	0.682	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.119	0.039
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.009
predicted_R	0.461	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.418	0.108
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.046
predicted_SO	0.674	-0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.062	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.095	-0.002
predicted_H	0.658	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.114	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.239	-0.057
predicted_R	0.433	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.393	-0.025
predicted_SLG	0.421	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.684	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.3846	0.3846	1.0000	0.3846	0.1538	0.3846	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2188	0.4667	0.2000	0.0667	0.2000	0.0333	0.2000
season	0.60	24	-	72.000	17.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	2.000	17.000	0.2361	0.2500	0.4583	0.2361	0.0417	0.1667	0.0278	0.2361

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2750
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1680
predicted_AVG	0.2544
predicted_BB	0.1200
predicted_H	0.8060
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.2805
predicted_R	0.5370
predicted_RBI	0.6040
predicted_SLG	0.5191
predicted_SO	0.6150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2920	0.2750	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.1680	3.0617	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2544	0.2478	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0830	0.1200	0.0966	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.8060	0.6820	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1860	0.1189	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2805	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.5370	0.4611	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.6040	0.4180	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5191	0.4406	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7080	0.6150	0.6738	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	686681
playerID	686681
playerName	Michael Massey
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 44

All-history rows before 20260515: 44

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3064

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.932	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.932	3.000	-0.932	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.333	-0.306	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.205	1.000	-1.205	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.159	0.000	-0.159	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.381	0.500	-0.131	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.503	0.333	-0.503	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.932	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.906	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.033
predicted_BB	0.495	-0.005
predicted_H	1.034	0.154
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.185	0.075
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.038
predicted_R	0.572	0.072
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.070
predicted_SLG	0.482	0.087
predicted_SO	0.712	-0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.906	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.488	-0.008
predicted_H	0.998	-0.036
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.178	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.338	-0.005
predicted_R	0.538	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.488	-0.032
predicted_SLG	0.459	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.723	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.932

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	0.3684	0.4545	0.8421	0.3684	0.1579	0.2632	0.1579	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	15.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	7.000	10.000	5.000	5.000	0.3947	0.4651	0.8421	0.3947	0.1316	0.1842	0.1316	0.1316
season	0.60	44	-	173.000	53.000	11.000	1.000	7.000	22.000	22.000	22.000	33.000	0.3064	0.3807	0.5029	0.3064	0.0405	0.1272	0.1272	0.1908

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8680
predicted_AVG	0.3242
predicted_BB	0.4890
predicted_H	1.2540
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2920
predicted_OBP	0.3982
predicted_R	0.6760
predicted_RBI	0.6200
predicted_SLG	0.6063
predicted_SO	0.6580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1880	0.2245	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9320	3.8680	3.9057	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3242	0.2770	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4890	0.4955	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.2540	1.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2920	0.1849	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3982	0.3433	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6760	0.5724	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.6200	0.5199	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.6063	0.4819	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.6580	0.7122	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Isaac Collins (686555) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 34

All-history rows before 20260515: 34

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2261

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.382	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.382	3.000	0.618	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.765	0.000	-0.765	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.250	-0.343	-0.250
predicted_R	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	1.088	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.088	0.000	0.912	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.382	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.088	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.407	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.456	-0.044
predicted_H	0.735	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.163	-
predicted_HR	0.087	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.006
predicted_R	0.427	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.371	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.036	-0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.407	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.448	-0.007
predicted_H	0.710	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.163	0.000
predicted_HR	0.083	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.010
predicted_R	0.401	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.349	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.330	-0.044
predicted_SO	1.052	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	0.2581	0.3846	0.4516	0.2581	0.0323	0.1290	0.1613	0.2581
season	0.60	34	-	115.000	26.000	5.000	3.000	13.000	15.000	17.000	37.000	0.2261	0.3431	0.3478	0.2261	0.0261	0.1130	0.1478	0.3217

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4460
predicted_AVG	0.2157
predicted_BB	0.3880
predicted_H	0.7430
predicted_HBP	0.1630
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.3197
predicted_R	0.4060
predicted_RBI	0.3730
predicted_SLG	0.3435
predicted_SO	0.9570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1890	0.1637	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3820	3.4460	3.4074	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2157	0.2328	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3880	0.4555	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7430	0.7352	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1630	0.1630	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0820	0.0868	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3197	0.3108	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.4060	0.4271	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3730	0.3712	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3435	0.3745	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0880	0.9570	1.0359	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	686555
playerID	686555
playerName	Isaac Collins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Salvador Perez (521692) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.929	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.929	4.000	-0.929	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.500	0.133	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	2.000	0.214	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.239	0.500	0.261	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	0.643	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.339	0.500	-0.006	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.929	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.929	1.000	1.071	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.929	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.929	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.896	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.160	0.017
predicted_H	0.826	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.058	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.024
predicted_R	0.350	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.427	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.371	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.935	0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.896	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.157	-0.003
predicted_H	0.797	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.058	0.000
predicted_HR	0.118	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.235	-0.046
predicted_R	0.329	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.401	-0.026
predicted_SLG	0.323	-0.048
predicted_SO	0.949	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.929

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.1622	0.2195	0.2432	0.1622	0.0270	0.1351	0.0541	0.2703
season	0.60	42	-	165.000	33.000	5.000	6.000	18.000	15.000	6.000	39.000	0.2000	0.2386	0.3394	0.2000	0.0364	0.1091	0.0364	0.2364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0860
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8480
predicted_AVG	0.2017
predicted_BB	0.1840
predicted_H	0.7760
predicted_HBP	0.0580
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.2470
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.4080
predicted_SLG	0.3359
predicted_SO	0.9430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1190	0.0860	0.1056	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9290	3.8480	3.8960	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2017	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.1840	0.1597	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.7760	0.8258	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0580	0.0580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1420	0.1230	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2470	0.2814	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3400	0.3501	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4080	0.4270	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3359	0.3709	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9290	0.9430	0.9347	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	521692
playerID	521692
playerName	Salvador Perez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Kyle Isbel (664728) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 33

All-history rows before 20260515: 33

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2718

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	1.000	-0.030	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.121	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.121	4.000	0.879	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.250	-0.022	0.000
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.848	1.000	0.152	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.250	-0.080	0.000
predicted_R	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.394	1.000	-0.394	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.750	-0.167	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.758	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.758	2.000	1.242	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.121	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.394	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.758	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.044	0.014
predicted_AB	3.198	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.003
predicted_BB	0.180	-0.002
predicted_H	0.698	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.002
predicted_R	0.396	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.319	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.753	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	0.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.198	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.177	-0.003
predicted_H	0.674	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.052	0.000
predicted_HR	0.072	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.051
predicted_R	0.372	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.300	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.049
predicted_SO	0.765	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.3529	0.2353	0.0000	0.1177	0.0000	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2188	0.2647	0.3125	0.2188	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.2188
season	0.60	33	-	103.000	28.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	13.000	6.000	25.000	0.2718	0.3304	0.4175	0.2718	0.0291	0.0971	0.0583	0.2427

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0650
predicted_AB	3.3200
predicted_AVG	0.2518
predicted_BB	0.1770
predicted_H	0.8360
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.2997
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.3340
predicted_SLG	0.3859
predicted_SO	0.7460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.1110	0.1171	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0650	0.0436	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1210	3.3200	3.1983	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2518	0.2470	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.1770	0.1801	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.8360	0.6977	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0680	0.0753	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2997	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3940	0.4000	0.3963	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3340	0.3193	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3859	0.3915	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7580	0.7460	0.7533	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	664728
playerID	664728
playerName	Kyle Isbel
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Michael Wacha (608379) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.125	2.000	-1.125	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.875	0.000	0.125	2.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.250	2.000	0.750	3.000
predicted_IP	6.100	6.100	6.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.388	7.000	-0.288	-0.900
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	5.250	6.000	1.750	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 6.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.100	14.000	24.000	12.000	25.000	4.000	4.1538	1.1868	0.4615	0.7912	0.3956	0.8242	0.1319
last_10	0.35	8	51.100	15.000	34.000	17.000	42.000	5.000	2.6299	0.9935	0.2922	0.6623	0.3312	0.8182	0.0974
season	0.20	8	51.100	15.000	34.000	17.000	42.000	5.000	2.6299	0.9935	0.2922	0.6623	0.3312	0.8182	0.0974

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3380
predicted_ER	2.6640
predicted_ERA	3.8717
predicted_H	5.0970
predicted_HR	0.7680
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	5.4190
predicted_WHIP	1.2004

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.3380	1.6523	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.6640	2.3237	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8717	3.8717	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.0970	5.0473	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7680	0.8869	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.1000	6.1000	6.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	5.4190	6.2293	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2004	1.2004	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.1
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	7
HR	1
BF	25
Pitches	111

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.63
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	54
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	608379
playerID	608379
playerName	Michael Wacha
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.722	2.000	-0.722	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.911	1.000	0.289	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	1.000	1.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.6000	0.4000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	10.000	1.8000	1.4000	0.2000	0.5000	0.9000	1.0000
season	0.20	18	17.100	7.000	13.000	12.000	15.000	3.6346	1.4423	0.4038	0.7500	0.6923	0.8654

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4840
predicted_ER	0.3740
predicted_ERA	3.3680
predicted_H	0.7990
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9650
predicted_WHIP	1.2830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4840	0.1936	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3740	0.1496	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3680	3.3680	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7990	0.3195	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0760	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9650	1.5861	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2830	1.2830	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Matt Strahm (621381) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 16

All-history rows before 20260515: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	1.625	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.438	1.000	1.562	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.812	1.000	2.188	2.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	-0.950	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.6000	0.8000	0.4000	0.6000	0.2000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	9.000	4.000	11.000	2.000	3.6000	1.3000	0.4000	0.9000	0.4000	1.1000	0.2000
season	0.20	16	15.200	7.000	13.000	6.000	16.000	3.000	4.0213	1.2128	0.4468	0.8298	0.3830	1.0213	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2080
predicted_ER	0.2620
predicted_ERA	3.9996
predicted_H	0.5110
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5630
predicted_WHIP	1.2196

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.2080	1.3017	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2620	1.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9996	3.9996	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.5110	2.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0920	0.0359	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5630	0.2194	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2196	1.2196	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.02
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	621381
playerID	621381
playerName	Matt Strahm
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Home Team: STL

Alec Burleson (676475) · BATTER · 1B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2761

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.275	1.000	-0.275	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.075	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.075	5.000	-0.075	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.600	0.474	0.150
predicted_BB	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.425	0.000	-0.425	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.125	3.000	1.875	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.600	0.407	0.150
predicted_R	0.525	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.525	0.000	0.475	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.454	0.800	0.296	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.725	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.725	1.000	-0.725	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.075	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.425	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.525	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.725	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.104	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.012
predicted_BB	0.374	-0.051
predicted_H	1.008	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.117	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.007
predicted_R	0.507	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.496	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.013
predicted_SO	0.771	0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.104	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.379	0.004
predicted_H	1.030	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.002
predicted_R	0.527	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.516	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.407	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.762	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.075

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.3043	0.3043	0.3913	0.3044	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2174
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	0.2619	0.2955	0.4048	0.2619	0.0238	0.0952	0.0476	0.2381
season	0.60	40	-	163.000	45.000	11.000	6.000	30.000	21.000	17.000	29.000	0.2761	0.3425	0.4540	0.2761	0.0368	0.1840	0.1043	0.1779

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2850
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1470
predicted_AVG	0.2739
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_H	1.1360
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_OBP	0.3226
predicted_R	0.4810
predicted_RBI	0.5340
predicted_SLG	0.4263
predicted_SO	0.8370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2750	0.2850	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0750	4.1470	4.1044	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2739	0.2562	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4250	0.3010	0.3744	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.1360	1.0082	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1140	0.1175	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3226	0.3122	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5250	0.4810	0.5070	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5340	0.4961	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4263	0.4078	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7250	0.8370	0.7707	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	676475
playerID	676475
playerName	Alec Burleson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	STL
teamID	26

Masyn Winn (691026) · BATTER · SS · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 38

All-history rows before 20260515: 38

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2587

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	1.000	-0.184	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.865	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.763	3.000	0.237	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.333	-0.259	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	1.000	-0.974	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.600	-0.337	-0.600
predicted_R	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.447	1.000	-0.447	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.357	0.667	-0.357	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.811	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	3.865	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.351	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.811	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.051	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.845	-0.020
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.001
predicted_BB	0.347	-0.004
predicted_H	0.855	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.097	-
predicted_HR	0.079	-0.031
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.006
predicted_R	0.433	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.383	-0.027
predicted_SLG	0.373	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.777	-0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.845	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.350	0.004
predicted_H	0.874	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.097	0.000
predicted_HR	0.081	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.019
predicted_R	0.450	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.398	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.009
predicted_SO	0.769	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.865

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2432	0.3095	0.3243	0.2432	0.0000	0.0811	0.0811	0.1351
season	0.60	37	-	143.000	37.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	16.000	17.000	13.000	30.000	0.2587	0.3292	0.3566	0.2587	0.0070	0.1119	0.0909	0.2098

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0470
predicted_AB	3.8150
predicted_AVG	0.2456
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_H	0.9370
predicted_HBP	0.0970
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.3203
predicted_R	0.3940
predicted_RBI	0.3430
predicted_SLG	0.3414
predicted_SO	0.7280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.1740	0.1829	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0470	0.0512	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8650	3.8150	3.8448	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2456	0.2446	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3510	0.3400	0.3466	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9370	0.8554	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0970	0.0970	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0330	0.0789	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3203	0.3112	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.3940	0.4327	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.3430	0.3829	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3414	0.3733	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8110	0.7280	0.7775	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	691026
playerID	691026
playerName	Masyn Winn
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	STL
teamID	26

Jordan Walker (691023) · BATTER · RF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2975

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.220	1.000	-0.220	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.854	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.854	5.000	-0.854	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.400	0.036	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.463	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.463	0.000	-0.463	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.146	2.000	-0.146	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.293	1.000	-0.293	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.400	-0.124	-0.150
predicted_R	0.805	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.805	1.000	0.195	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.780	2.000	1.220	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.582	1.200	-0.249	-0.867
predicted_SO	1.171	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.171	0.000	0.829	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.854	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.463	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.805	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.171	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.857	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.009
predicted_BB	0.454	-0.009
predicted_H	0.917	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.174	0.064
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.015
predicted_R	0.779	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.548	0.118
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.057
predicted_SO	1.122	-0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.459	0.005
predicted_H	0.937	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.178	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.003
predicted_R	0.810	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.440	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.109	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.854

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.5714	0.2381	0.0952	0.2381	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	9.000	0.2222	0.3488	0.4722	0.2222	0.0556	0.1389	0.1944	0.2500
season	0.60	41	-	158.000	47.000	9.000	12.000	32.000	33.000	19.000	48.000	0.2975	0.3743	0.5823	0.2975	0.0760	0.2025	0.1202	0.3038

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8610
predicted_AVG	0.2667
predicted_BB	0.4400
predicted_H	1.0300
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.2680
predicted_OBP	0.3426
predicted_R	0.7410
predicted_RBI	0.7200
predicted_SLG	0.5346
predicted_SO	1.0510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2200	0.2260	0.2224	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8540	3.8610	3.8569	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2667	0.2533	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4630	0.4400	0.4536	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.0300	0.9175	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2680	0.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3426	0.3203	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8050	0.7410	0.7789	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.7200	0.5483	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5346	0.4520	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1710	1.0510	1.1220	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	691023
playerID	691023
playerName	Jordan Walker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	STL
teamID	26

Nolan Gorman (669357) · BATTER · 3B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 37

All-history rows before 20260515: 37

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.649	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.649	4.000	-0.649	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.250	-0.222	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.432	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	1.000	0.568	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.811	1.000	-0.811	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.400	-0.049	-0.150
predicted_R	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.595	1.000	-0.595	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.341	0.250	-0.341	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.189	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.189	0.000	0.811	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.649	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.189	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.652	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.439	0.007
predicted_H	0.792	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.096	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.002
predicted_R	0.368	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.370	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.156	-0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.652	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.444	0.005
predicted_H	0.809	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.098	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.001
predicted_R	0.383	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.455	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.143	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	12.000	0.2222	0.3171	0.3611	0.2222	0.0278	0.1111	0.1389	0.3333
season	0.60	37	-	135.000	30.000	4.000	4.000	22.000	14.000	16.000	44.000	0.2222	0.2987	0.3407	0.2222	0.0296	0.1630	0.1185	0.3259

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1170
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6560
predicted_AVG	0.2257
predicted_BB	0.4490
predicted_H	0.8250
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.3087
predicted_R	0.3530
predicted_RBI	0.5090
predicted_SLG	0.3330
predicted_SO	1.1070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.1170	0.1116	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6490	3.6560	3.6518	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2257	0.2366	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.4490	0.4388	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8250	0.7921	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0900	0.0960	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3087	0.3065	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.3530	0.3679	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.5090	0.4379	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3330	0.3701	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1890	1.1070	1.1560	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669357
playerID	669357
playerName	Nolan Gorman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	STL
teamID	26

JJ Wetherholt (802139) · BATTER · 2B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2469

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2470

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	3.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.000	0.420	0.667
predicted_BB	0.524	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.524	1.000	0.476	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.952	0.000	1.048	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.190	0.000	0.810	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.400	0.383	0.350
predicted_R	0.786	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.786	1.000	0.214	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.524	0.000	0.476	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.426	0.000	1.241	1.667
predicted_SO	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.810	2.000	-0.810	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.524	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.786	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.810	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.845	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.007
predicted_BB	0.500	-0.024
predicted_H	0.941	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.285	-
predicted_HR	0.139	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.030
predicted_R	0.758	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.008
predicted_SO	0.818	0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.845	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.506	0.006
predicted_H	0.961	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.285	0.000
predicted_HR	0.142	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.002
predicted_R	0.788	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.499	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.809	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.857

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.3158	0.4583	0.4737	0.3158	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	0.2632	0.3913	0.3421	0.2632	0.0263	0.1579	0.1316	0.1842
season	0.60	42	-	162.000	40.000	5.000	8.000	22.000	33.000	22.000	34.000	0.2469	0.3673	0.4259	0.2469	0.0494	0.1358	0.1358	0.2099

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0860
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8290
predicted_AVG	0.2613
predicted_BB	0.4660
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.2850
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_OBP	0.3790
predicted_R	0.7170
predicted_RBI	0.5090
predicted_SLG	0.4155
predicted_SO	0.8300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1190	0.0860	0.1054	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8570	3.8290	3.8455	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2613	0.2511	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5240	0.4660	0.5002	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0000	0.9411	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2850	0.2850	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1670	0.1393	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3790	0.3354	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7860	0.7170	0.7576	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5090	0.4801	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4155	0.4034	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8100	0.8300	0.8182	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	802139
playerID	802139
playerName	JJ Wetherholt
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	STL
teamID	26

Iván Herrera (671056) · BATTER · DH · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2642

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2320

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.698	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.698	5.000	-0.698	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.200	0.069	0.133
predicted_BB	0.651	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.651	0.000	0.349	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.977	1.000	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.396	0.200	0.104	0.300
predicted_R	0.535	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.535	0.000	-0.535	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.465	1.000	-0.465	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.200	-0.075	0.133
predicted_SO	0.767	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.767	0.000	-0.767	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.698	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.651	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.535	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.767	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.789	0.091
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.011
predicted_BB	0.560	-0.091
predicted_H	0.919	0.100
predicted_HBP	0.107	-
predicted_HR	0.093	-0.017
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.019
predicted_R	0.490	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.457	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.753	-0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.789	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.567	0.006
predicted_H	0.939	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.107	0.000
predicted_HR	0.095	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.022
predicted_R	0.510	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.476	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.744	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.2727	0.2727	0.3182	0.2727	0.0000	0.1364	0.0000	0.0909
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.3095	0.3333	0.3810	0.3095	0.0000	0.1429	0.0476	0.1905
season	0.60	43	-	159.000	42.000	11.000	4.000	20.000	23.000	28.000	33.000	0.2642	0.3959	0.4088	0.2641	0.0252	0.1258	0.1761	0.2076

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9200
predicted_AVG	0.2708
predicted_BB	0.4310
predicted_H	1.0620
predicted_HBP	0.1070
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.3517
predicted_R	0.4260
predicted_RBI	0.5110
predicted_SLG	0.3864
predicted_SO	0.7320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2450	0.2515	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6980	3.9200	3.7893	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2708	0.2550	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6510	0.4310	0.5605	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.0620	0.9195	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1070	0.1070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0680	0.0927	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3517	0.3242	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5350	0.4260	0.4902	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5110	0.4574	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3864	0.3915	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7670	0.7320	0.7526	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	671056
playerID	671056
playerName	Iván Herrera
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	STL
teamID	26

Nathan Church (701675) · BATTER · LF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 33

All-history rows before 20260515: 33

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2439

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	4.000	0.273	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.006	0.250
predicted_BB	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	0.000	0.091	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.000	-0.021	0.250
predicted_R	0.424	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.424	0.000	0.576	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.382	0.000	-0.132	0.250
predicted_SO	0.788	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.788	0.000	-0.788	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.152	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.424	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.788	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.729	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.162	0.010
predicted_H	0.843	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.093	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.011
predicted_R	0.387	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.409	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.756	-0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.729	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.163	0.002
predicted_H	0.861	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.095	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.031
predicted_R	0.402	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.425	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.748	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2632	0.2821	0.3421	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.0263	0.1053
season	0.60	33	-	123.000	30.000	5.000	4.000	15.000	14.000	5.000	26.000	0.2439	0.2713	0.3821	0.2439	0.0325	0.1220	0.0406	0.2114

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7310
predicted_AVG	0.2435
predicted_BB	0.1760
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.2782
predicted_R	0.3300
predicted_RBI	0.4080
predicted_SLG	0.3610
predicted_SO	0.7070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1890	0.1666	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	3.7310	3.7286	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2435	0.2438	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1520	0.1760	0.1615	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9090	0.8430	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0820	0.0929	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2782	0.2944	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4240	0.3300	0.3869	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4080	0.4092	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3610	0.3816	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7880	0.7070	0.7560	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	701675
playerID	701675
playerName	Nathan Church
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	STL
teamID	26

Pedro Pagés (686780) · BATTER · C · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 27

All-history rows before 20260515: 27

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2088

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2090

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.370	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.370	3.000	0.630	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.333	-0.209	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.704	1.000	-0.704	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.333	-0.255	-0.333
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.341	0.333	-0.341	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.926	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.926	1.000	1.074	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.370	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.148	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.926	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.400	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.147	-0.001
predicted_H	0.663	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.085	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.274	-0.031
predicted_R	0.331	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.308	-0.042
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.042
predicted_SO	0.935	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.148	0.002
predicted_H	0.677	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.042	0.000
predicted_HR	0.087	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.041
predicted_R	0.344	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.309	-0.044
predicted_SO	0.924	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.0667	0.0667	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	13.000	0.1389	0.1622	0.1667	0.1389	0.0000	0.0000	0.0278	0.3611
season	0.60	27	-	91.000	19.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	9.000	4.000	25.000	0.2088	0.2551	0.3407	0.2088	0.0330	0.0879	0.0440	0.2747

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4490
predicted_AVG	0.1846
predicted_BB	0.1450
predicted_H	0.6360
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_OBP	0.2238
predicted_R	0.3270
predicted_RBI	0.2400
predicted_SLG	0.2847
predicted_SO	0.9490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1050	0.1087	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3700	3.4490	3.4001	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1846	0.2213	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1480	0.1450	0.1469	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.6360	0.6632	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0780	0.0854	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2238	0.2740	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3270	0.3307	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.2400	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2847	0.3529	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9260	0.9490	0.9348	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	686780
playerID	686780
playerName	Pedro Pagés
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	STL
teamID	26

Victor Scott II (687363) · BATTER · CF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 35

All-history rows before 20260515: 35

System season_avg: 0.1860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1863

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.914	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.914	3.000	0.086	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.186	0.333	-0.186	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.543	1.000	-0.543	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	1.000	-0.057	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.333	-0.250	-0.333
predicted_R	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.371	1.000	-0.371	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.171	1.000	-0.171	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.265	1.333	-0.265	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.914	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.914	1.000	1.086	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.914	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.229	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.914	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.991	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.236	0.007
predicted_H	0.588	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.037	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.015
predicted_R	0.411	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.262	-0.028
predicted_SLG	0.366	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.925	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.991	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.239	0.003
predicted_H	0.601	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.037	0.000
predicted_HR	0.084	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.260	-0.030
predicted_R	0.427	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.272	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.307	-0.060
predicted_SO	0.915	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.4000	0.2000	0.0667	0.0667	0.0667	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.1724	0.2727	0.3103	0.1724	0.0345	0.0345	0.1035	0.3448
season	0.60	35	-	102.000	19.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	13.000	8.000	32.000	0.1863	0.2500	0.2647	0.1863	0.0196	0.0588	0.0784	0.3137

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1120
predicted_AVG	0.1984
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_H	0.6170
predicted_HBP	0.0370
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.2653
predicted_R	0.4730
predicted_RBI	0.2180
predicted_SLG	0.3207
predicted_SO	0.9430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0570	0.0770	0.0648	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9140	3.1120	2.9909	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1984	0.2263	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2290	0.2480	0.2364	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6170	0.5882	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0370	0.0370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.1000	0.0816	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2653	0.2896	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.4730	0.4106	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2180	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3207	0.3662	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9140	0.9430	0.9253	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.186

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	687363
playerID	687363
playerName	Victor Scott II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	STL
teamID	26

Dustin May (669160) · PITCHER · Starter · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.375	2.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.875	2.000	-1.875	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	6.250	3.000	-4.250	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.275	6.000	-0.175	-0.900
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_SO	4.000	7.000	4.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.100	9.000	29.000	8.000	21.000	2.000	2.7614	1.2614	0.3068	0.9886	0.2727	0.7159	0.0682
last_10	0.35	8	42.200	23.000	50.000	11.000	32.000	4.000	4.8516	1.4297	0.5391	1.1719	0.2578	0.7500	0.0938
season	0.20	8	42.200	23.000	50.000	11.000	32.000	4.000	4.8516	1.4297	0.5391	1.1719	0.2578	0.7500	0.0938

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7890
predicted_ER	2.3750
predicted_ERA	3.7224
predicted_H	5.7730
predicted_HR	0.5550
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.6860
predicted_WHIP	1.3171

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.7890	1.8971	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.3750	1.6703	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7224	3.7224	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	5.7730	3.8394	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5550	0.7831	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	4.6860	6.3844	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3171	1.3171	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	8
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	92

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.85
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	64
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	669160
playerID	669160
playerName	Dustin May
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

George Soriano (666277) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.632	2.000	0.368	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	1.000	0.300	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	0.000	1.211	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	1.9286	1.5000	0.2143	0.8571	0.6429	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	2.000	8.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	2.0769	1.3846	0.2308	0.9231	0.4615	0.9231	0.1154
season	0.20	19	18.000	7.000	12.000	10.000	15.000	2.000	3.5000	1.2222	0.3889	0.6667	0.5556	0.8333	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4570
predicted_ER	0.3780
predicted_ERA	3.4026
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9240
predicted_WHIP	1.3554

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4570	0.1845	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3780	0.1526	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4026	3.4026	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8990	0.9592	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1420	0.0573	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9240	1.5655	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3554	1.3554	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	666277
playerID	666277
playerName	George Soriano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

JoJo Romero (668941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 21

All-history rows before 20260515: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.381	1.000	0.619	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.857	3.000	0.143	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	0.200	0.200	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.8000	0.4000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	9.000	4.000	12.000	2.000	5.0000	1.4444	0.5556	1.0000	0.4444	1.3333	0.2222
season	0.20	21	21.000	8.000	18.000	8.000	18.000	3.000	3.4286	1.2381	0.3810	0.8571	0.3810	0.8571	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3950
predicted_ER	0.4180
predicted_ERA	3.7636
predicted_H	0.9130
predicted_HR	0.1190
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0180
predicted_WHIP	1.3081

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3950	0.7460	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4180	0.1755	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7636	3.7636	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9130	0.9635	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1190	0.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0180	0.4273	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3081	1.3081	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.43
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	668941
playerID	668941
playerName	JoJo Romero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Riley O'Brien (676617) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 21

All-history rows before 20260515: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.810	0.000	0.190	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.933	1.000	0.167	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.190	2.000	-0.190	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	3.8571	0.6429	0.4286	0.4286	0.2143	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	6.000	13.000	2.000	13.000	1.000	5.4000	1.5000	0.6000	1.3000	0.2000	1.3000	0.1000
season	0.20	21	21.000	6.000	17.000	2.000	25.000	1.000	2.5714	0.9048	0.2857	0.8095	0.0952	1.1905	0.0476

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_ER	0.4630
predicted_ERA	4.1705
predicted_H	0.8800
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1020
predicted_WHIP	1.1725

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2920	0.1226	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4630	0.7746	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1705	4.1705	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8800	0.9496	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1340	0.6365	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1020	1.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1725	1.1725	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.57
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	676617
playerID	676617
playerName	Riley O'Brien
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

20260515_LAD@LAA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.521922, "home_win_probability": 0.478078, "away_win_probability": 0.521922, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 LAA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 LAA", "confidence": 0.521922, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 LAA", "winner": "LAD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 LAA", "winner": "LAD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	LAD 4 - 3 LAA	LAD	0.522	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	LAD 4 - 3 LAA	LAD	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away LAD	5-5	0.500	4.10	3.80	3	1W	average	average
Home LAA	3-7	0.300	2.60	4.70	-21	3L	cold	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away LAD	25-18	0.581	63	1.465	True
Home LAA	16-28	0.364	-32	-0.727	True
Signal	-	-	-2.192	-2.519	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target LAD	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target LAA	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized LAD	34	9	7	0	4	2	9
Player finalized LAA	34	9	2	0	0	3	9
Player model fractional LAD	32.75	7.72	5.47	1.15	4.13	3.62	7.79
Player model fractional LAA	32.96	6.91	3.55	0.97	3.35	3.52	9.19
Simulation box LAD	35	8	4	0	4	7	7
Simulation box LAA	33	6	3	0	3	8	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away LAD	Starter	Will Klein	4.10	2	4	2	7	3.67	1.39	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Jack Dreyer	1.20	0	1	1	0	2.88	1.14	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Kyle Hurt	1	0	0	1	0	2.97	1.12	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Tanner Scott	1	0	1	0	1	2.83	0.94	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Alex Vesia	1	1	0	2	0	4.92	1.37	True
Home LAA	Starter	Jack Kochanowicz	6.10	2	6	5	5	4.24	1.36	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Ryan Zeferjahn	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.44	1.12	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Sam Bachman	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.53	1.01	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	José Fermin	0	1	0	1	2	4.76	1.27	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Kirby Yates	0	1	0	2	0	4.61	1.39	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: LAD

Hyeseong Kim (808975) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 27

All-history rows before 20260515: 27

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2716

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2720

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.500	-0.272	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.296	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.296	0.000	0.704	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.815	1.000	-0.815	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	-0.083	-0.250
predicted_R	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.358	0.500	-0.358	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.296	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.000
predicted_AB	3.069	0.069
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.285	-0.011
predicted_H	0.641	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.066	-0.014
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.007
predicted_R	0.354	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.829	0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.069	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.290	0.006
predicted_H	0.669	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.069	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.013
predicted_R	0.382	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.333	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.813	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	0.0714	0.1333	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0714	0.0714	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.2258	0.2727	0.2903	0.2258	0.0000	0.0645	0.0645	0.2581
season	0.60	27	-	81.000	22.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	10.000	8.000	21.000	0.2716	0.3333	0.3580	0.2716	0.0123	0.1111	0.0988	0.2593

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.1840
predicted_AVG	0.2278
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_H	0.7250
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.2872
predicted_R	0.3270
predicted_RBI	0.3230
predicted_SLG	0.3140
predicted_SO	0.9130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0740	0.0730	0.0736	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0360	0.0366	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.1840	3.0693	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2278	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2960	0.2660	0.2847	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7250	0.6409	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0430	0.0661	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2872	0.2983	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.3270	0.3538	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3230	0.3087	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3140	0.3645	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.9130	0.8289	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	808975
playerID	808975
playerName	Hyeseong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Smith (669257) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 31

All-history rows before 20260515: 31

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2583

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	0.903	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.871	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.871	3.000	0.129	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.333	0.242	0.167
predicted_BB	0.387	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.387	1.000	0.613	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	1.000	-0.129	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.500	0.279	0.100
predicted_R	0.419	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	1.000	0.581	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.581	1.000	0.419	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	1.333	0.367	-0.583
predicted_SO	0.774	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.774	2.000	-0.774	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.871	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.387	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.774	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.798	-0.073
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.002
predicted_BB	0.404	0.017
predicted_H	0.890	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.121	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.007
predicted_R	0.394	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.457	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.792	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.798	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.412	0.008
predicted_H	0.929	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.126	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.007
predicted_R	0.425	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.493	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.372	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.776	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.871

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3500	0.4375	0.2500	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	0.2286	0.3171	0.3714	0.2286	0.0286	0.0857	0.1429	0.2571
season	0.60	31	-	120.000	31.000	3.000	4.000	18.000	13.000	12.000	24.000	0.2583	0.3209	0.3833	0.2583	0.0333	0.1500	0.1000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6870
predicted_AVG	0.2494
predicted_BB	0.4300
predicted_H	0.9200
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.3222
predicted_R	0.3560
predicted_RBI	0.4820
predicted_SLG	0.3923
predicted_SO	0.8190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.1120	0.1029	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8710	3.6870	3.7980	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2494	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3870	0.4300	0.4040	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9200	0.8898	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1370	0.1207	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3222	0.3118	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.3560	0.3940	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4820	0.4567	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3923	0.3939	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7740	0.8190	0.7918	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669257
playerID	669257
playerName	Will Smith
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3082

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.698	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.698	3.000	0.302	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_BB	0.279	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.279	1.000	0.721	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.140	0.000	-1.140	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.250	-0.160	-0.050
predicted_R	0.535	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.535	0.000	-0.535	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.814	0.000	-0.814	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000
predicted_SO	0.791	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.791	0.000	0.209	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.698	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.279	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.535	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.791	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.670	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.003
predicted_BB	0.306	0.027
predicted_H	0.832	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.083	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.036
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.010
predicted_R	0.489	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.485	0.085
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.018
predicted_SO	0.738	-0.053

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.670	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.312	0.006
predicted_H	0.869	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.083	0.000
predicted_HR	0.143	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.018
predicted_R	0.527	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.523	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.724	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.0625	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.0000	0.1875	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.2703	0.3415	0.5946	0.2703	0.1081	0.2162	0.0811	0.1081
season	0.60	43	-	159.000	49.000	8.000	9.000	35.000	23.000	12.000	34.000	0.3082	0.3600	0.5283	0.3082	0.0566	0.2201	0.0755	0.2138

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1190
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6280
predicted_AVG	0.2504
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_H	0.9080
predicted_HBP	0.0830
predicted_HR	0.1890
predicted_OBP	0.3301
predicted_R	0.4220
predicted_RBI	0.6090
predicted_SLG	0.4405
predicted_SO	0.6610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.1190	0.1587	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6980	3.6280	3.6695	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2504	0.2466	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2790	0.3460	0.3063	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9080	0.8321	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0830	0.0830	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1890	0.1362	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3301	0.3152	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5350	0.4220	0.4890	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.6090	0.4851	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4405	0.4135	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7910	0.6610	0.7381	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Tucker (663656) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2548

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.738	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.738	4.000	0.262	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.952	0.000	-0.952	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.000	-0.153	0.200
predicted_R	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.690	0.000	0.310	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.408	0.000	-0.408	0.000
predicted_SO	0.857	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	1.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.738	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.690	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.327	0.041
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.630	-0.108
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.011
predicted_BB	0.607	0.036
predicted_H	0.869	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.077	-
predicted_HR	0.098	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.035
predicted_R	0.669	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.393	-0.027
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.023
predicted_SO	0.810	-0.047

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.327	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.630	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.619	0.012
predicted_H	0.907	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.103	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.019
predicted_R	0.721	0.052
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.007
predicted_SO	0.794	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	0.2857	0.5000	0.5000	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.3571	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	10.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	0.3226	0.4615	0.5806	0.3226	0.0323	0.1290	0.2258	0.2258
season	0.60	42	-	157.000	40.000	12.000	4.000	19.000	29.000	24.000	36.000	0.2548	0.3533	0.4076	0.2548	0.0255	0.1210	0.1529	0.2293

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3850
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4750
predicted_AVG	0.2702
predicted_BB	0.6590
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HBP	0.0770
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.3904
predicted_R	0.6380
predicted_RBI	0.3550
predicted_SLG	0.4514
predicted_SO	0.7410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.3850	0.3265	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7380	3.4750	3.6304	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2702	0.2547	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.6590	0.6070	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9390	0.8687	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0770	0.0770	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0810	0.0981	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3904	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6900	0.6380	0.6687	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.3550	0.3934	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4514	0.4181	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.7410	0.8096	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	663656
playerID	663656
playerName	Kyle Tucker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Max Muncy (571970) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2681

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.450	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.450	3.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.525	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.525	1.000	0.475	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.925	0.000	-0.925	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.250	-0.165	-0.050
predicted_R	0.725	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.725	2.000	-0.725	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.425	0.000	-0.425	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_SO	0.975	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.975	0.000	-0.975	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.450	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.525	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.725	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.975	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.452	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.487	-0.038
predicted_H	0.762	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.165	0.065
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.004
predicted_R	0.709	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.425	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.431	0.036
predicted_SO	0.959	-0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.452	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.496	0.009
predicted_H	0.796	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.173	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.018
predicted_R	0.764	0.056
predicted_RBI	0.459	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.413	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.940	-0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.5294	0.1765	0.1177	0.2353	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	10.000	0.1562	0.2703	0.3438	0.1562	0.0625	0.1250	0.1562	0.3125
season	0.60	40	-	138.000	37.000	5.000	11.000	17.000	29.000	21.000	39.000	0.2681	0.3648	0.5435	0.2681	0.0797	0.1232	0.1522	0.2826

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4540
predicted_AVG	0.2300
predicted_BB	0.4310
predicted_H	0.7950
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2610
predicted_OBP	0.3155
predicted_R	0.6840
predicted_RBI	0.4920
predicted_SLG	0.4839
predicted_SO	0.9350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0890	0.1105	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4500	3.4540	3.4516	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2300	0.2383	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5250	0.4310	0.4871	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7950	0.7622	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.2610	0.1650	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3155	0.3092	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7250	0.6840	0.7085	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4920	0.4252	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4839	0.4309	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9750	0.9350	0.9589	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	571970
playerID	571970
playerName	Max Muncy
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Teoscar Hernández (606192) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 39

All-history rows before 20260515: 39

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2624

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	2.000	-0.179	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.615	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.615	4.000	0.385	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.750	-0.012	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.949	3.000	0.051	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.750	-0.085	-0.500
predicted_R	0.513	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.513	1.000	-0.513	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.397	1.250	-0.147	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.154	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.154	1.000	-0.154	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.615	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.513	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.154	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	0.037
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.631	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.021
predicted_BB	0.374	-0.011
predicted_H	0.902	0.122
predicted_HBP	0.035	-
predicted_HR	0.088	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.024
predicted_R	0.490	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.384	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.014
predicted_SO	1.121	-0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.631	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.381	0.007
predicted_H	0.942	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.035	0.000
predicted_HR	0.092	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.001
predicted_R	0.528	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.414	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.013
predicted_SO	1.099	-0.022

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.4444	0.5000	0.6111	0.4444	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	0.2973	0.3659	0.3784	0.2973	0.0000	0.0270	0.0811	0.3513
season	0.60	39	-	141.000	37.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	20.000	15.000	45.000	0.2624	0.3354	0.3972	0.2624	0.0284	0.1277	0.1064	0.3191

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2710
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6560
predicted_AVG	0.2959
predicted_BB	0.3580
predicted_H	1.0820
predicted_HBP	0.0350
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.3634
predicted_R	0.4560
predicted_RBI	0.3590
predicted_SLG	0.4296
predicted_SO	1.0720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.2710	0.2161	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6150	3.6560	3.6315	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2959	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.3580	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	1.0820	0.9018	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0350	0.0350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0710	0.0883	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3634	0.3286	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5130	0.4560	0.4900	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3590	0.3835	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4296	0.4090	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1540	1.0720	1.1209	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	606192
playerID	606192
playerName	Teoscar Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Dalton Rushing (687221) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3016

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.198	0.500
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.056	0.000	0.944	2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.250	0.129	0.250
predicted_R	0.722	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.889	0.000	-0.889	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.667	0.000	-0.167	0.500
predicted_SO	1.056	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.056	3.000	-0.056	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.722	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.056	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.537	0.037
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.003
predicted_BB	0.231	0.009
predicted_H	0.781	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.041
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.007
predicted_R	0.650	-0.072
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.078
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.020
predicted_SO	1.046	-0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.537	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.236	0.005
predicted_H	0.815	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.138	0.000
predicted_HR	0.137	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.033
predicted_R	0.701	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.473	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.025	-0.020

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	0.2000	0.3000	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.1143	0.0857	0.3143
season	0.60	18	-	63.000	19.000	2.000	7.000	16.000	13.000	4.000	19.000	0.3016	0.3714	0.6667	0.3016	0.1111	0.2540	0.0635	0.3016

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6030
predicted_AVG	0.2512
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_H	0.9050
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.2030
predicted_OBP	0.3246
predicted_R	0.5240
predicted_RBI	0.5760
predicted_SLG	0.4497
predicted_SO	1.0270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0990	0.1067	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6030	3.5373	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2512	0.2466	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2480	0.2314	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.9050	0.7806	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.2030	0.1309	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3246	0.3121	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7220	0.5240	0.6503	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.5760	0.4382	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4497	0.4148	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0560	1.0270	1.0455	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	687221
playerID	687221
playerName	Dalton Rushing
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Mookie Betts (605141) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 10

All-history rows before 20260515: 10

System season_avg: 0.1710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1707

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.100	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.100	4.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.171	0.250	0.329	0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	1.000	1.300	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.227	0.250	0.373	0.350
predicted_R	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.415	1.000	0.335	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.100	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.700	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.089	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.212	0.012
predicted_H	0.889	-0.031
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.163	0.043
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.016
predicted_R	0.662	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.515	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.008
predicted_SO	0.524	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	4.089	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.216	0.004
predicted_H	0.929	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.043	0.000
predicted_HR	0.171	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.023
predicted_R	0.714	0.052
predicted_RBI	0.555	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.379	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.514	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 4.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.1818	0.2174	0.4545	0.1818	0.0909	0.1364	0.0454	0.0454
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	0.1707	0.2273	0.4146	0.1707	0.0732	0.1951	0.0488	0.1220
season	0.60	10	-	41.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	0.1707	0.2273	0.4146	0.1707	0.0732	0.1951	0.0488	0.1220

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.0660
predicted_AVG	0.2036
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	0.8280
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.2510
predicted_OBP	0.2560
predicted_R	0.5860
predicted_RBI	0.6060
predicted_SLG	0.4183
predicted_SO	0.5740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1070	0.1023	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1000	4.0660	4.0887	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2036	0.2306	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2370	0.2123	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.8280	0.8895	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.2510	0.1634	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2560	0.2888	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7000	0.5860	0.6622	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.6060	0.5151	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4183	0.4027	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5740	0.5245	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.171

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	605141
playerID	605141
playerName	Mookie Betts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2400

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.846	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.488	0.000	0.512	4.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.240	-	0.010	-
predicted_BB	0.718	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.651	0.000	0.349	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.837	0.000	0.163	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.370	-	0.030	-
predicted_R	0.692	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.628	0.000	-0.628	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.427	-	-0.177	-
predicted_SO	1.128	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.023	0.000	-0.023	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.846	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.718	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.692	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.128	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.879	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.644	-0.074
predicted_H	0.826	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.075	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.005
predicted_R	0.655	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.387	-0.008
predicted_SO	1.128	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.879	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.656	0.013
predicted_H	0.863	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.075	0.000
predicted_HR	0.137	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.025
predicted_R	0.707	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.457	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.371	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.107	-0.022

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.846

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.3333	0.1905	0.0476	0.0952	0.0476	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	11.000	0.1500	0.2609	0.2500	0.1500	0.0250	0.1000	0.1250	0.2750
season	0.60	39	-	150.000	36.000	7.000	7.000	17.000	27.000	28.000	44.000	0.2400	0.3696	0.4267	0.2400	0.0467	0.1133	0.1867	0.2933

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9260
predicted_AVG	0.2165
predicted_BB	0.5360
predicted_H	0.8500
predicted_HBP	0.0750
predicted_HR	0.1610
predicted_OBP	0.3174
predicted_R	0.6020
predicted_RBI	0.4300
predicted_SLG	0.3757
predicted_SO	1.1290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1370	0.1618	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8460	3.9260	3.8787	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2165	0.2328	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7180	0.5360	0.6436	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8500	0.8264	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0750	0.0750	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1610	0.1309	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3174	0.3101	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6920	0.6020	0.6552	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4300	0.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3757	0.3871	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1280	1.1290	1.1284	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	1
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.82
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	105
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	71
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Klein (694361) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 12

All-history rows before 20260515: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	6.500	7.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.417	0.000	1.583	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.417	1.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.225	0.200	2.875	3.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	1.417	1.000	2.583	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	2.000	7.000	3.000	7.000	2.7000	1.5000	0.3000	1.0500	0.4500	1.0500
last_10	0.35	10	14.100	5.000	16.000	6.000	15.000	3.1395	1.5349	0.3488	1.1163	0.4186	1.0465
season	0.20	12	16.100	5.000	17.000	6.000	17.000	2.7551	1.4082	0.3061	1.0408	0.3674	1.0408

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2530
predicted_ER	1.2860
predicted_ERA	3.6718
predicted_H	3.1240
predicted_HR	0.2470
predicted_IP	3.0000
predicted_SO	3.1330
predicted_WHIP	1.3888

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	7.0000	1.2530	4.7364	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.2860	1.7188	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6718	3.6718	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	3.1240	2.4427	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2470	0.0973	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	3.0000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.1330	3.6585	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3888	1.3888	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	7
SO	4
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	98

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.76
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	694361
playerID	694361
playerName	Will Klein
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Jack Dreyer (676263) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.789	1.000	0.211	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.989	1.000	0.211	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	2.000	-0.158	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	0.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7895	0.0000	0.7895	0.0000	0.7895	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	11.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	2.3824	1.0588	0.2647	0.9706	0.0882	0.9706	0.0882
season	0.20	19	20.200	5.000	15.000	5.000	22.000	1.000	2.1774	0.9677	0.2419	0.7258	0.2419	1.0645	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3060
predicted_ER	0.4000
predicted_ERA	2.8755
predicted_H	1.1190
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1710
predicted_WHIP	1.1395

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3060	0.1279	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4000	0.1673	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8755	2.8755	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1190	1.0498	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1110	0.0464	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1710	1.0715	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1395	1.1395	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.18
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	676263
playerID	676263
playerName	Jack Dreyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Hurt (669165) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 11

All-history rows before 20260515: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.545	1.000	0.455	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.455	2.000	-1.455	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.6000	0.2000	1.8000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	13.000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.4000	0.1000	1.3000
season	0.20	11	11.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	16.000	0.8182	0.6364	0.0909	0.5454	0.0909	1.4546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3090
predicted_ER	0.3300
predicted_ERA	2.9686
predicted_H	0.8110
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1410
predicted_WHIP	1.1202

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3090	0.1100	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3300	0.1175	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9686	2.9686	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8110	0.9327	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0900	0.0320	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1410	0.4063	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1202	1.1202	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.82
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669165
playerID	669165
playerName	Kyle Hurt
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.870	1.000	0.130	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	2.000	0.100	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	1.0345	0.1035
season	0.20	20	18.100	3.000	9.000	2.000	18.000	2.000	1.4727	0.6000	0.1636	0.4909	0.1091	0.9818	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2600
predicted_ER	0.3140
predicted_ERA	2.8256
predicted_H	0.6840
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9800
predicted_WHIP	0.9438

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2600	0.6998	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3140	0.1274	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8256	2.8256	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6840	0.2775	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0402	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9800	0.9919	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9438	0.9438	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.47
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Vesia (681911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.389	0.000	1.611	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.706	1.000	0.294	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	3.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	7.3636	1.6364	0.8182	0.8182	0.8182	1.0909
last_10	0.35	10	7.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	9.000	6.4286	1.4286	0.7143	0.7143	0.7143	1.2857
season	0.20	18	14.100	5.000	7.000	8.000	18.000	3.1395	1.0465	0.3488	0.4884	0.5581	1.2558

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3390
predicted_ER	0.3640
predicted_ERA	4.9206
predicted_H	0.5720
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6960
predicted_WHIP	1.3660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3390	0.1291	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3640	0.7577	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9206	4.9206	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.5720	1.4561	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0550	0.0210	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6960	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3660	1.3660	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.14
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	681911
playerID	681911
playerName	Alex Vesia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Home Team: LAA

Vaughn Grissom (687093) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.474	2.000	0.526	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.023	0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	2.000	0.474	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.947	0.000	0.053	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.500	0.041	-0.100
predicted_R	0.389	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.579	0.000	0.421	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.439	0.000	-0.189	0.250
predicted_SO	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.278	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.673	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.484	-0.016
predicted_H	0.846	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.121	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.008
predicted_R	0.380	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.482	0.062
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.008
predicted_SO	0.360	0.082

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.673	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.476	-0.008
predicted_H	0.803	-0.043
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.114	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.004
predicted_R	0.346	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.440	-0.042
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.366	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.2222	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2683	0.3611	0.1667	0.0556	0.1944	0.1389	0.1111
season	0.60	18	-	66.000	18.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	7.000	9.000	5.000	0.2727	0.3553	0.4394	0.2727	0.0303	0.1515	0.1364	0.0758

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6840
predicted_AVG	0.2421
predicted_BB	0.4560
predicted_H	0.8920
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.3255
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.5900
predicted_SLG	0.4162
predicted_SO	0.5020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.2130	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.6840	3.6732	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2421	0.2433	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4560	0.4838	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8920	0.8464	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1400	0.1210	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3255	0.3125	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.3630	0.3795	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5900	0.4824	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4162	0.4028	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2780	0.5020	0.3603	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	687093
playerID	687093
playerName	Vaughn Grissom
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Mike Trout (545361) · BATTER · CF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2484

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.558	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.558	4.000	1.442	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.000	-0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.907	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.907	0.000	-0.907	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.884	0.000	-0.884	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_R	0.767	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.767	0.000	-0.767	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.535	0.000	-0.535	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.503	0.000	-0.503	0.000
predicted_SO	1.186	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.186	2.000	-0.186	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.558	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.907	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.767	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.186	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.577	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.831	-0.076
predicted_H	0.805	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.023
predicted_R	0.679	-0.088
predicted_RBI	0.390	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.006
predicted_SO	1.242	0.056

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.577	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.818	-0.013
predicted_H	0.763	-0.041
predicted_HBP	0.041	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.032
predicted_R	0.620	-0.060
predicted_RBI	0.356	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.355	-0.046
predicted_SO	1.262	0.020

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.1667	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	16.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.0556	0.1667	0.4444
season	0.60	43	-	153.000	38.000	6.000	11.000	23.000	33.000	39.000	51.000	0.2484	0.4103	0.5033	0.2484	0.0719	0.1503	0.2549	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6040
predicted_AVG	0.2291
predicted_BB	0.7220
predicted_H	0.8260
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_OBP	0.3614
predicted_R	0.5540
predicted_RBI	0.3760
predicted_SLG	0.4106
predicted_SO	1.3230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1400	0.1480	0.1433	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5580	3.6040	3.5769	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2291	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9070	0.7220	0.8310	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8260	0.8048	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1670	0.1275	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3614	0.3282	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7670	0.5540	0.6795	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3760	0.3901	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4106	0.4014	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1860	1.3230	1.2423	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	545361
playerID	545361
playerName	Mike Trout
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Logan O'Hoppe (681351) · BATTER · C · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 23

All-history rows before 20260515: 23

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.304	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.304	3.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.478	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.478	0.000	0.522	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.696	0.000	-0.696	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.000	-0.080	0.250
predicted_R	0.391	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.391	0.000	0.609	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.348	0.000	0.652	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_SO	0.913	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.913	1.000	0.087	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.304	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.478	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.391	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.913	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.049	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.350	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.453	-0.025
predicted_H	0.689	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.083	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.001
predicted_R	0.407	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.325	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.042
predicted_SO	0.950	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.049	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.350	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.446	-0.007
predicted_H	0.654	-0.035
predicted_HBP	0.083	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.017
predicted_R	0.371	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.296	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.278	-0.075
predicted_SO	0.965	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.4375
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	0.1765	0.2821	0.2647	0.1765	0.0294	0.0588	0.1177	0.3235
season	0.60	23	-	76.000	16.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	9.000	11.000	21.000	0.2105	0.3297	0.2632	0.2105	0.0132	0.1053	0.1447	0.2763

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0600
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4250
predicted_AVG	0.2102
predicted_BB	0.4120
predicted_H	0.7200
predicted_HBP	0.0830
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.3087
predicted_R	0.4340
predicted_RBI	0.2990
predicted_SLG	0.2846
predicted_SO	1.0100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0430	0.0600	0.0494	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3040	3.4250	3.3497	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2102	0.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4780	0.4120	0.4531	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7200	0.6889	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0830	0.0830	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0630	0.0798	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3087	0.3064	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3910	0.4340	0.4072	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.2990	0.3245	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2846	0.3533	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9130	1.0100	0.9496	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260425_LAA@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	681351
playerID	681351
playerName	Logan O'Hoppe
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAA
teamID	13

Zach Neto (687263) · BATTER · SS · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 44

All-history rows before 20260515: 44

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2241

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2240

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.955	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.955	3.000	0.045	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.667	-0.224	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.591	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.591	1.000	-0.591	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	2.000	-0.886	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.159	1.000	-0.159	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.750	-0.130	-0.550
predicted_R	0.659	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.659	1.000	-0.659	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	2.000	-0.455	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.408	1.667	-0.408	-1.667
predicted_SO	1.432	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.432	1.000	-1.432	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.955	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.591	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.432	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.027	0.004
predicted_AB	3.953	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.555	-0.036
predicted_H	0.871	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.024
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.006
predicted_R	0.649	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.441	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.011
predicted_SO	1.387	-0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.953	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.546	-0.009
predicted_H	0.826	-0.045
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.126	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.006
predicted_R	0.592	-0.057
predicted_RBI	0.402	-0.039
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.038
predicted_SO	1.410	0.022

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.955

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952	0.0952	0.3810
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	11.000	0.2368	0.3182	0.4737	0.2368	0.0526	0.1316	0.1316	0.2895
season	0.60	44	-	174.000	39.000	9.000	1.000	7.000	20.000	29.000	26.000	63.000	0.2241	0.3300	0.4080	0.2241	0.0402	0.1149	0.1494	0.3621

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0320
predicted_AB	3.9500
predicted_AVG	0.2313
predicted_BB	0.5030
predicted_H	0.9140
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.3203
predicted_R	0.6360
predicted_RBI	0.4570
predicted_SLG	0.4213
predicted_SO	1.3240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.1820	0.1955	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0320	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9550	3.9500	3.9529	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2313	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5910	0.5030	0.5547	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9140	0.8705	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1680	0.1339	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3203	0.3113	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.6360	0.6495	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4570	0.4411	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4213	0.4058	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4320	1.3240	1.3875	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	687263
playerID	687263
playerName	Zach Neto
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jorge Soler (624585) · BATTER · DH · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2207

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	0.825	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	4.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.000	0.029	0.250
predicted_BB	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.000	0.082	0.400
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.434	0.000	0.066	0.500
predicted_SO	1.375	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.375	3.000	0.625	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.625	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.646	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.413	-0.037
predicted_H	0.774	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.074	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.008
predicted_R	0.466	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.434	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.007
predicted_SO	1.375	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.646	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.406	-0.007
predicted_H	0.735	-0.040
predicted_HBP	0.074	0.000
predicted_HR	0.109	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.015
predicted_R	0.425	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.396	-0.038
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.044
predicted_SO	1.397	0.022

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2632	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.4210
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	16.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.3056	0.1667	0.0278	0.0833	0.0833	0.4444
season	0.60	40	-	145.000	32.000	7.000	8.000	28.000	20.000	18.000	55.000	0.2207	0.3176	0.4345	0.2207	0.0552	0.1931	0.1241	0.3793

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6760
predicted_AVG	0.2043
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_H	0.7510
predicted_HBP	0.0740
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.2843
predicted_R	0.4150
predicted_RBI	0.4830
predicted_SLG	0.3775
predicted_SO	1.3760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.2170	0.1921	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6250	3.6760	3.6457	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2043	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.3590	0.4130	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.7510	0.7742	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0740	0.0740	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1380	0.1154	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2843	0.2966	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4150	0.4655	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4830	0.4337	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3775	0.3879	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3750	1.3760	1.3754	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	624585
playerID	624585
playerName	Jorge Soler
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jo Adell (666176) · BATTER · RF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 44

All-history rows before 20260515: 44

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2690

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2690

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.886	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.886	4.000	1.114	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.000	-0.069	0.200
predicted_BB	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.045	0.000	-0.045	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.000	-0.110	0.200
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.568	0.000	-0.568	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.000	-0.204	0.200
predicted_SO	0.932	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.932	2.000	-0.932	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.886	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.114	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.932	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.040
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.805	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.011
predicted_BB	0.129	0.015
predicted_H	0.893	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.147	-
predicted_HR	0.145	0.035
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.006
predicted_R	0.362	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.489	0.069
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.038
predicted_SO	0.925	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.805	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.127	-0.002
predicted_H	0.847	-0.046
predicted_HBP	0.147	0.000
predicted_HR	0.137	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.248	-0.063
predicted_R	0.330	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.446	-0.043
predicted_SLG	0.371	-0.062
predicted_SO	0.940	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.886

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2941	0.3500	0.7647	0.2941	0.1177	0.2353	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.2727	0.3243	0.5455	0.2727	0.0606	0.1515	0.0303	0.3030
season	0.60	44	-	171.000	46.000	5.000	6.000	25.000	16.000	5.000	41.000	0.2690	0.3098	0.4035	0.2690	0.0351	0.1462	0.0292	0.2398

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2120
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6890
predicted_AVG	0.2704
predicted_BB	0.1510
predicted_H	0.9980
predicted_HBP	0.1470
predicted_HR	0.1960
predicted_OBP	0.3186
predicted_R	0.3590
predicted_RBI	0.5880
predicted_SLG	0.4888
predicted_SO	0.9140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.2120	0.1541	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8860	3.6890	3.8054	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2704	0.2548	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1140	0.1510	0.1291	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9980	0.8928	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1470	0.1470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1960	0.1452	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3186	0.3106	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.3590	0.3620	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5880	0.4887	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4888	0.4334	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9320	0.9140	0.9246	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	666176
playerID	666176
playerName	Jo Adell
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Nolan Schanuel (694384) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 39

All-history rows before 20260515: 39

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2628

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	0.744	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	5.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.400	0.237	0.100
predicted_BB	0.282	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.282	0.000	0.718	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.051	2.000	0.949	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.400	0.288	0.200
predicted_R	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.400	0.365	0.350
predicted_SO	0.718	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.718	2.000	0.282	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.282	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.359	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.718	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.994	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.013
predicted_BB	0.265	-0.017
predicted_H	0.980	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.095	-0.025
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.005
predicted_R	0.359	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.416	-0.044
predicted_SLG	0.391	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.772	0.054

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.994	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.260	-0.004
predicted_H	0.930	-0.050
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.089	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.280	-0.031
predicted_R	0.328	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.380	-0.037
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.785	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.3500	0.3000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	13.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.3171	0.3333	0.4146	0.3171	0.0000	0.0244	0.0244	0.2195
season	0.60	39	-	156.000	41.000	10.000	3.000	20.000	14.000	11.000	28.000	0.2628	0.3118	0.3846	0.2628	0.0192	0.1282	0.0705	0.1795

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9860
predicted_AVG	0.2755
predicted_BB	0.2390
predicted_H	1.0980
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.3181
predicted_R	0.3600
predicted_RBI	0.3520
predicted_SLG	0.3853
predicted_SO	0.8520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2590	0.2572	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9860	3.9943	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2755	0.2568	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2820	0.2390	0.2645	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0980	0.9804	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.0580	0.0948	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3181	0.3103	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3590	0.3600	0.3594	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.3520	0.4161	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3853	0.3911	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7180	0.8520	0.7724	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	694384
playerID	694384
playerName	Nolan Schanuel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Josh Lowe (666139) · BATTER · LF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 30

All-history rows before 20260515: 30

System season_avg: 0.1580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1584

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.367	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.367	3.000	-1.367	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	1.000	1.800	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.211	0.250	0.289	0.250
predicted_R	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.287	0.000	-0.287	0.000
predicted_SO	1.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.100	2.000	-0.100	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.367	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.233	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.100	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.401	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.201	0.001
predicted_H	0.655	-0.065
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.037
predicted_R	0.230	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.331	-0.039
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.050
predicted_SO	1.109	0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.401	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.198	-0.003
predicted_H	0.622	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.228	-0.041
predicted_R	0.210	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.302	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.275	-0.071
predicted_SO	1.126	0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.4375
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	0.0857	0.1111	0.1714	0.0857	0.0286	0.0286	0.0286	0.3429
season	0.60	30	-	101.000	16.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	6.000	33.000	0.1584	0.2110	0.2871	0.1584	0.0396	0.0990	0.0594	0.3267

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0510
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4540
predicted_AVG	0.1602
predicted_BB	0.2020
predicted_H	0.5530
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_OBP	0.2103
predicted_R	0.2250
predicted_RBI	0.2690
predicted_SLG	0.2667
predicted_SO	1.1220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0330	0.0510	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3670	3.4540	3.4007	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1602	0.2116	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2020	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.5530	0.6554	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1040	0.0954	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2103	0.2684	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2330	0.2250	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.2690	0.3309	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2667	0.3454	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1000	1.1220	1.1085	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.158

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	666139
playerID	666139
playerName	Josh Lowe
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Oswald Peraza (672724) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 28

All-history rows before 20260515: 28

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.536	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.536	4.000	-1.536	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.250	0.227	0.250
predicted_BB	0.250	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.964	1.000	0.036	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.250	0.411	0.500
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.465	0.250	0.035	0.250
predicted_SO	0.929	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.929	2.000	-0.929	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.536	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.929	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.565	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.001
predicted_BB	0.246	-0.004
predicted_H	0.767	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.121	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.026
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.004
predicted_R	0.361	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.368	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.007
predicted_SO	0.926	-0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.565	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.041
predicted_BB	0.242	-0.004
predicted_H	0.728	-0.039
predicted_HBP	0.121	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.255	-0.054
predicted_R	0.330	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.336	-0.032
predicted_SLG	0.335	-0.067
predicted_SO	0.941	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.2500	0.3250	0.3611	0.2500	0.0278	0.0833	0.0556	0.2500
season	0.60	28	-	99.000	27.000	4.000	5.000	11.000	10.000	7.000	26.000	0.2727	0.3394	0.4646	0.2727	0.0505	0.1111	0.0707	0.2626

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1210
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6120
predicted_AVG	0.2463
predicted_BB	0.2410
predicted_H	0.8900
predicted_HBP	0.1210
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_OBP	0.3158
predicted_R	0.3680
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.4126
predicted_SO	0.9210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1210	0.1345	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5360	3.6120	3.5654	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2463	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2410	0.2465	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8900	0.7674	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1210	0.1210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1580	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3158	0.3092	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3680	0.3613	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3960	0.3678	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4126	0.4018	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9290	0.9210	0.9259	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	672724
playerID	672724
playerName	Oswald Peraza
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jack Kochanowicz (686799) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_BB	2.875	2.000	2.125	3.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.500	6.000	-0.500	-4.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.750	9.000	0.250	-4.000
predicted_IP	6.100	6.100	6.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.462	4.000	0.638	2.100
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	3.750	0.000	2.250	6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 6.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.200	14.000	28.000	12.000	18.000	2.000	4.3953	1.3953	0.4884	0.9767	0.4186	0.6279	0.0698
last_10	0.35	8	45.100	20.000	38.000	23.000	30.000	2.000	3.9706	1.3456	0.4412	0.8382	0.5073	0.6618	0.0441
season	0.20	8	45.100	20.000	38.000	23.000	30.000	2.000	3.9706	1.3456	0.4412	0.8382	0.5073	0.6618	0.0441

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.4970
predicted_ER	2.7870
predicted_ERA	4.2355
predicted_H	5.5390
predicted_HR	0.5190
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	4.5140
predicted_WHIP	1.3568

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	2.4970	3.7798	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.7870	2.3837	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2355	4.2355	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.5390	5.2628	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5190	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.1000	6.0000	6.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.5140	4.7631	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3568	1.3568	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.1
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	5
SO	6
HR	0
BF	29
Pitches	115

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	3.97
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	9
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	84
Pitching_R	7
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	49
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	686799
playerID	686799
playerName	Jack Kochanowicz
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Ryan Zeferjahn (666171) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 15

All-history rows before 20260515: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.733	0.000	-0.733	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.320	1.000	-0.220	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.933	2.000	-1.933	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	1.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	1.2273	0.6818	0.1364	0.2727	0.4091	1.6364
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	5.000	7.000	7.000	18.000	3.3750	1.0500	0.3750	0.5250	0.5250	1.3500
season	0.20	15	21.200	10.000	12.000	11.000	29.000	4.1538	1.0615	0.4615	0.5538	0.5077	1.3385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5630
predicted_ER	0.5100
predicted_ERA	3.4407
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5980
predicted_WHIP	1.1197

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5630	0.2382	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5100	0.2158	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4407	3.4407	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9300	0.3935	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0920	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5980	0.6761	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1197	1.1197	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	4

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	666171
playerID	666171
playerName	Ryan Zeferjahn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Bachman (696147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 15

All-history rows before 20260515: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	0.000	-0.667
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.467	0.000	-0.467
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.733	0.000	-0.733
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.153	1.100	-0.053
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.467	1.000	-0.467

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	1.000	1.5882	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	1.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	13.200	6.000	8.000	5.000	14.000	2.000	3.9512	0.9512	0.4390	0.5854	0.3659	1.0244	0.1463
season	0.20	15	20.100	7.000	11.000	10.000	22.000	2.000	3.0984	1.0328	0.3443	0.5410	0.4918	1.0820	0.0984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3950
predicted_ER	0.4970
predicted_ERA	3.5347
predicted_H	0.8800
predicted_HR	0.1750
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3120
predicted_WHIP	1.0068

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3950	0.1645	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4970	0.2070	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5347	3.5347	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8800	0.3665	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1750	0.0729	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3120	1.1299	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0068	1.0068	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	696147
playerID	696147
playerName	Sam Bachman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

José Fermin (820862) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 7

All-history rows before 20260515: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	0.000	1.571	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.929	1.000	-0.929	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.143	0.000	-1.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	7.2000	1.2000	0.8000	0.6000	0.6000	1.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	7	7.200	4.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	1.000	4.6957	0.7826	0.5217	0.3913	0.3913	1.0435	0.1304
season	0.20	7	7.200	4.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	1.000	4.6957	0.7826	0.5217	0.3913	0.3913	1.0435	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2060
predicted_ER	0.2590
predicted_ERA	4.7592
predicted_H	0.4150
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.4750
predicted_WHIP	1.2692

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.2060	1.4147	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2590	0.7583	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7592	4.7592	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4150	0.8092	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0690	0.0225	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4750	0.8287	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2692	1.2692	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	820862
playerID	820862
playerName	José Fermin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Kirby Yates (489446) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 2

All-history rows before 20260515: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.500	2.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	-0.600	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.8000	0.6000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.8000	0.6000	1.2000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.8000	0.6000	1.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1400
predicted_ER	0.1810
predicted_ERA	4.6068
predicted_H	0.3510
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3450
predicted_WHIP	1.3877

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1400	0.0355	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1810	0.7922	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6068	4.6068	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.3510	1.5815	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0430	0.0109	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3450	0.0876	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3877	1.3877	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	489446
playerID	489446
playerName	Kirby Yates
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

20260515_MIA@TB

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.535378, "home_win_probability": 0.535378, "away_win_probability": 0.464622, "predicted_score_text": "MIA 2 - 4 TB", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "MIA 2 - 4 TB", "confidence": 0.535378, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIA 2 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIA 2 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	MIA 2 - 4 TB	TB	0.535	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	MIA 2 - 5 TB	TB	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away MIA	4-6	0.400	4	4.90	-9	1L	average	average
Home TB	8-2	0.800	4.40	2.80	16	1L	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away MIA	20-24	0.455	-10	-0.227	True
Home TB	28-14	0.667	22	0.524	True
Signal	-	-	0.751	1.069	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target MIA	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Game target TB	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized MIA	32	9	3	0	1	2	8
Player finalized TB	32	9	3	0	1	2	8
Player model fractional MIA	32.36	6.99	3.94	0.90	3.44	2.83	8.55
Player model fractional TB	31.26	7.20	4.09	0.83	3.66	3.40	7.10
Simulation box MIA	33	6	2	0	2	1	7
Simulation box TB	33	9	5	0	5	4	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away MIA	Starter	Janson Junk	5.20	3	7	6	3	3.34	1.15	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Tyler Phillips	1.10	0	0	1	0	2.46	1.24	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Calvin Faucher	1	1	0	1	1	2.96	1.19	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	John King	0	0	0	0	0	5.12	1.27	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Pete Fairbanks	0	1	0	1	0	5.58	1.32	True
Home TB	Starter	Ian Seymour	5	2	5	6	1	3.77	1.28	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Bryan Baker	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.25	1.27	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Cole Sulser	1	0	0	0	0	2.47	0.89	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Garrett Cleavinger	1.20	0	1	0	0	3.93	1.32	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: MIA

Christopher Morel (666624) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 10

All-history rows before 20260515: 10

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1765

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	4.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.250	-0.176	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.243	0.250	-0.243	-0.250
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.206	0.500	-0.206	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.300	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.300	1.000	-1.300	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.300	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.020
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.474	0.074
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.194	-0.006
predicted_H	0.723	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.085	-0.015
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.023
predicted_R	0.240	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.350	-0.030
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.249	-0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.474	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.192	-0.002
predicted_H	0.696	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.043	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.242	-0.040
predicted_R	0.225	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.328	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.052
predicted_SO	1.263	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1667	0.1111	0.0556	0.0000	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	0.1765	0.2432	0.2059	0.1765	0.0294	0.0588	0.3824
season	0.60	10	-	34.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	0.1765	0.2432	0.2059	0.1765	0.0294	0.0588	0.3824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6330
predicted_AVG	0.1886
predicted_BB	0.1810
predicted_H	0.6850
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.2346
predicted_R	0.3270
predicted_RBI	0.2870
predicted_SLG	0.2795
predicted_SO	1.1400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1620	0.1198	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.6330	3.4743	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1886	0.2263	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1810	0.1939	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.6850	0.7225	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0520	0.0847	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2346	0.2825	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3270	0.2405	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.2870	0.3503	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2795	0.3582	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3000	1.1400	1.2490	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	666624
playerID	666624
playerName	Christopher Morel
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Liam Hicks (689414) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 34

All-history rows before 20260515: 34

System season_avg: 0.3090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3089

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3090

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.618	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.618	3.000	0.382	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.309	0.333	-0.309	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	1.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.118	1.000	-1.118	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.500	-0.369	-0.500
predicted_R	0.588	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.118	0.000	-1.118	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.553	0.333	-0.553	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.294	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.294	0.000	1.706	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.618	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.588	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.294	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.635	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.009
predicted_BB	0.331	0.007
predicted_H	0.878	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.099	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.030
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.015
predicted_R	0.537	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.613	0.203
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.018
predicted_SO	0.319	0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.635	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.327	-0.004
predicted_H	0.845	-0.033
predicted_HBP	0.099	0.000
predicted_HR	0.135	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.024
predicted_R	0.503	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.574	-0.039
predicted_SLG	0.367	-0.046
predicted_SO	0.323	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.2222	0.1111	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.2703	0.3571	0.4324	0.2703	0.0541	0.2432	0.1081	0.1081
season	0.60	34	-	123.000	38.000	3.000	9.000	38.000	20.000	11.000	10.000	0.3089	0.3688	0.5528	0.3089	0.0732	0.3089	0.0894	0.0813

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6600
predicted_AVG	0.2677
predicted_BB	0.3420
predicted_H	0.9800
predicted_HBP	0.0990
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.3420
predicted_R	0.4610
predicted_RBI	0.9200
predicted_SLG	0.4415
predicted_SO	0.3570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0880	0.0750	0.0828	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6180	3.6600	3.6347	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2677	0.2534	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.3420	0.3312	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9800	0.8778	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0990	0.0990	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1860	0.1403	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3420	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5880	0.4610	0.5374	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.9200	0.6133	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4415	0.4135	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2940	0.3570	0.3191	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.309

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	689414
playerID	689414
playerName	Liam Hicks
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIA
teamID	15

Xavier Edwards (669364) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3082

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	0.000	0.814	1.000
predicted_3B	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_AB	3.698	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.698	3.000	0.302	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.000	0.192	0.500
predicted_BB	0.558	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.558	1.000	-0.558	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.140	0.000	0.860	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.399	0.250	0.101	0.250
predicted_R	0.721	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.721	1.000	0.279	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.349	0.000	0.651	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.472	0.000	0.278	0.750
predicted_SO	0.465	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.465	0.000	0.535	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.070	-
predicted_AB	3.698	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.558	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.721	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.465	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.181	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.077	0.007
predicted_AB	3.725	0.027
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.009
predicted_BB	0.528	-0.030
predicted_H	0.921	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.119	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.018
predicted_R	0.746	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.417	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.423	0.028
predicted_SO	0.512	0.047

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.181	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000
predicted_AB	3.725	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.522	-0.006
predicted_H	0.887	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.115	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.009
predicted_R	0.698	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.390	-0.027
predicted_SLG	0.421	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.518	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.5000	0.2000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	5.000	5.000	0.2162	0.3095	0.4595	0.2162	0.0541	0.1081	0.1351	0.1351
season	0.60	43	-	159.000	49.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	15.000	31.000	24.000	20.000	0.3082	0.3989	0.4717	0.3082	0.0252	0.0943	0.1509	0.1258

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1730
predicted_3B	0.0880
predicted_AB	3.7640
predicted_AVG	0.2647
predicted_BB	0.4850
predicted_H	0.9960
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_OBP	0.3487
predicted_R	0.7810
predicted_RBI	0.3840
predicted_SLG	0.4636
predicted_SO	0.5800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.1730	0.1807	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0700	0.0880	0.0774	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6980	3.7640	3.7250	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2647	0.2525	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5580	0.4850	0.5282	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9960	0.9215	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1330	0.1194	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3487	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7210	0.7810	0.7455	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.3840	0.4171	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4636	0.4230	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4650	0.5800	0.5120	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669364
playerID	669364
playerName	Xavier Edwards
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Otto Lopez (672640) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.3370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3373

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	0.762	1.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	4.024	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.024	4.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.337	0.500	0.163	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.357	2.000	0.643	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.500	0.131	0.000
predicted_R	0.619	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.619	0.000	0.381	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	1.000	0.548	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.491	0.500	0.259	0.250
predicted_SO	0.762	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.762	0.000	-0.762	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	4.024	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.619	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.762	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.039	-0.009
predicted_AB	4.014	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.027
predicted_BB	0.172	0.005
predicted_H	1.038	0.138
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.015
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.016
predicted_R	0.560	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.018
predicted_SO	0.753	-0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000
predicted_3B	0.039	0.000
predicted_AB	4.014	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.170	-0.002
predicted_H	1.000	-0.039
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.280	-0.041
predicted_R	0.524	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.435	-0.030
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.761	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.024

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	14.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.3415	0.3571	0.4634	0.3415	0.0244	0.0976	0.0244	0.1220
season	0.60	42	-	169.000	57.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	19.000	26.000	7.000	32.000	0.3373	0.3687	0.4911	0.3373	0.0237	0.1124	0.0414	0.1893

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2160
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.3097
predicted_BB	0.1790
predicted_H	1.2390
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.3434
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.4720
predicted_SLG	0.4398
predicted_SO	0.7390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.2160	0.2290	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0260	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0240	4.0000	4.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3097	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1790	0.1719	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.2390	1.0383	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.0840	0.1053	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3434	0.3207	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6190	0.4750	0.5602	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4720	0.4649	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4398	0.4133	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7620	0.7390	0.7526	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.337

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	672640
playerID	672640
playerName	Otto Lopez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Joe Mack (691788) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

System season_avg: 0.1920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1923

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	4.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.192	0.250	0.474	0.417
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.625	1.000	1.375	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.667	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.222	0.250	0.444	0.417
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.269	0.250	0.397	0.417
predicted_SO	1.125	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	2.000	-1.125	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.004
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.348	0.098
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.155	0.030
predicted_H	0.678	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.074	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.012
predicted_R	0.300	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.328	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.380	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.112	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.348	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.040
predicted_BB	0.154	-0.002
predicted_H	0.653	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.071	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.230	-0.063
predicted_R	0.281	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.307	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.043
predicted_SO	1.125	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.2941	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.20	8	-	26.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	0.1923	0.2222	0.2692	0.1923	0.0769	0.0385	0.3462
season	0.60	8	-	26.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	0.1923	0.2222	0.2692	0.1923	0.0769	0.0385	0.3462

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2630
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.5820
predicted_AVG	0.2147
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	0.7690
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.2660
predicted_R	0.4190
predicted_RBI	0.3460
predicted_SLG	0.3425
predicted_SO	1.0820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2630	0.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.5820	3.3483	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2147	0.2353	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.2280	0.1555	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7690	0.6782	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0600	0.0741	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2660	0.2935	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.4190	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3460	0.3277	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3425	0.3795	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.0820	1.1123	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.192

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	691788
playerID	691788
playerName	Joe Mack
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIA
teamID	15

Kyle Stowers (669065) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 21

All-history rows before 20260515: 21

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2179

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	3.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	-0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.476	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.476	1.000	0.524	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.810	0.000	-0.810	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.250	-0.072	0.000
predicted_R	0.476	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.476	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.476	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.675	-0.039
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.463	-0.013
predicted_H	0.801	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.099	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.010
predicted_R	0.469	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.352	-0.048
predicted_SLG	0.384	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.938	-0.062

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.675	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.458	-0.005
predicted_H	0.772	-0.030
predicted_HBP	0.099	0.000
predicted_HR	0.096	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.018
predicted_R	0.439	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.330	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.044
predicted_SO	0.949	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.5000	0.2500	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	0.2353	0.3333	0.3529	0.2353	0.0294	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353
season	0.60	21	-	78.000	17.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	10.000	21.000	0.2179	0.3222	0.3077	0.2180	0.0128	0.0385	0.1282	0.2692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1760
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6100
predicted_AVG	0.2318
predicted_BB	0.4410
predicted_H	0.8370
predicted_HBP	0.0990
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.3313
predicted_R	0.4570
predicted_RBI	0.2740
predicted_SLG	0.3650
predicted_SO	0.8360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1760	0.1847	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.6100	3.6748	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2318	0.2394	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4760	0.4410	0.4628	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8370	0.8015	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0990	0.0990	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0990	0.0996	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3313	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4760	0.4570	0.4688	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.2740	0.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3650	0.3837	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8360	0.9382	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669065
playerID	669065
playerName	Kyle Stowers
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Esteury Ruiz (665923) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 6

All-history rows before 20260515: 6

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_SO	1.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	2.000	-0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.005
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.434	0.101
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.724	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.039
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.009
predicted_R	0.509	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.389	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.022
predicted_SO	1.282	-0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.434	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.038
predicted_BB	0.045	-0.001
predicted_H	0.697	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.125	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.213	-0.082
predicted_R	0.476	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.364	-0.025
predicted_SLG	0.363	-0.054
predicted_SO	1.296	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.6111	0.2222	0.1111	0.1667	0.4444
last_10	0.20	6	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.5500	0.2000	0.1000	0.1500	0.4000
season	0.60	6	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.5500	0.2000	0.1000	0.1500	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1860
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.7000
predicted_AVG	0.2337
predicted_BB	0.1660
predicted_H	0.8650
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.2330
predicted_OBP	0.2706
predicted_R	0.5320
predicted_RBI	0.5190
predicted_SLG	0.4771
predicted_SO	1.1470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1860	0.1722	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.7000	3.4337	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2337	0.2412	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1660	0.0456	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8650	0.7235	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.2330	0.1293	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2706	0.2956	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5320	0.5088	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.5190	0.3891	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4771	0.4175	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.1470	1.2819	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	665923
playerID	665923
playerName	Esteury Ruiz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Jakob Marsee (805300) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.1730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1731

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.098	0.000	-0.098
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.049	0.000	-0.049
predicted_AB	3.805	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.805	4.000	0.195
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.173	0.000	-0.173
predicted_BB	0.585	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.585	0.000	-0.585
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.098	0.000	-0.098
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.659	0.000	-0.659
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.049	0.000	-0.049
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.297	0.000	-0.297
predicted_R	0.537	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.537	0.000	-0.537
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.293	0.000	-0.293
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.263	0.000	-0.263
predicted_SO	1.146	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.146	2.000	0.854

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-
predicted_3B	0.049	-
predicted_AB	3.805	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.585	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.537	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.146	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.040	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.740	-0.065
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.565	-0.020
predicted_H	0.761	-0.059
predicted_HBP	0.128	-
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.002
predicted_R	0.507	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.418	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.094	-0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.740	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.558	-0.006
predicted_H	0.732	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.128	0.000
predicted_HR	0.101	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.007
predicted_R	0.475	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.391	-0.027
predicted_SLG	0.324	-0.034
predicted_SO	1.106	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.805

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.1875	0.3500	0.3750	0.1875	0.0625	0.1875	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	10.000	0.1714	0.3095	0.2857	0.1714	0.0286	0.1429	0.1429	0.2857
season	0.60	41	-	156.000	27.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	22.000	24.000	47.000	0.1731	0.2973	0.2628	0.1731	0.0128	0.0769	0.1538	0.3013

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0900
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.6470
predicted_AVG	0.1852
predicted_BB	0.5350
predicted_H	0.6750
predicted_HBP	0.1280
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.3096
predicted_R	0.4640
predicted_RBI	0.4150
predicted_SLG	0.3044
predicted_SO	1.0180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0980	0.0900	0.0947	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0490	0.0260	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8050	3.6470	3.7403	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1852	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5850	0.5350	0.5645	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.6750	0.7607	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1280	0.1280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0980	0.1051	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3096	0.3069	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5370	0.4640	0.5071	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4150	0.4180	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3044	0.3579	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1460	1.0180	1.0936	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.173

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	805300
playerID	805300
playerName	Jakob Marsee
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Connor Norby (681393) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 37

All-history rows before 20260515: 37

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2295

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.297	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.297	5.000	0.703	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.400	-0.230	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.757	2.000	-0.757	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.400	-0.336	-0.400
predicted_R	0.297	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.297	0.000	-0.297	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.400	-0.361	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.216	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.216	2.000	-0.216	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.297	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.405	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.297	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.216	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.319	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.405	-0.000
predicted_H	0.733	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.090	-
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.010
predicted_R	0.338	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.338	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.375	-0.020
predicted_SO	1.194	-0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.319	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.400	-0.005
predicted_H	0.706	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.090	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.018
predicted_R	0.316	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.316	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.338	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.207	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	0.2188	0.3421	0.2812	0.2188	0.0000	0.0625	0.1562	0.5000
season	0.60	37	-	122.000	28.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	11.000	15.000	45.000	0.2295	0.3357	0.3607	0.2295	0.0246	0.0984	0.1230	0.3689

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1920
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3520
predicted_AVG	0.2336
predicted_BB	0.4040
predicted_H	0.7830
predicted_HBP	0.0900
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.3311
predicted_R	0.3990
predicted_RBI	0.3050
predicted_SLG	0.3454
predicted_SO	1.1600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.1920	0.1902	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2970	3.3520	3.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2336	0.2398	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4050	0.4040	0.4046	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7830	0.7331	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0900	0.0900	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0590	0.0776	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3311	0.3154	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2970	0.3990	0.3377	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3050	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3454	0.3752	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2160	1.1600	1.1936	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681393
playerID	681393
playerName	Connor Norby
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Janson Junk (676083) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.250	2.000	1.750	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	4.000	1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	4.875	7.000	1.125	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.425	6.000	-0.225	-0.800
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	4.125	6.000	2.875	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.200	8.000	22.000	6.000	21.000	2.000	2.6024	1.0120	0.2892	0.7952	0.2169	0.7590	0.0723
last_10	0.35	8	44.100	16.000	39.000	10.000	33.000	4.000	3.2481	1.1053	0.3609	0.8797	0.2256	0.7444	0.0902
season	0.20	8	44.100	16.000	39.000	10.000	33.000	4.000	3.2481	1.1053	0.3609	0.8797	0.2256	0.7444	0.0902

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5970
predicted_ER	2.1040
predicted_ERA	3.3417
predicted_H	4.9140
predicted_HR	0.5530
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.7220
predicted_WHIP	1.1489

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.5970	2.3160	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.1040	3.0757	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3417	3.3417	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.9140	5.4706	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5530	0.2696	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.7220	5.8895	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1489	1.1489	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	7
HR	0
BF	26
Pitches	101

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	3.25
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	65
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676083
playerID	676083
playerName	Janson Junk
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 13

All-history rows before 20260515: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.385	0.000	-0.385	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.815	1.100	-0.715	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.923	1.000	-1.923	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	0.000	7.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.8750	0.1250	0.8750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	19.100	3.000	16.000	10.000	19.000	1.000	1.3966	1.3448	0.1552	0.8276	0.5172	0.9828	0.0517
season	0.20	13	25.000	3.000	18.000	13.000	25.000	1.000	1.0800	1.2400	0.1200	0.7200	0.5200	1.0000	0.0400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5750
predicted_ER	0.4340
predicted_ERA	2.4553
predicted_H	1.4060
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.5090
predicted_WHIP	1.2448

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5750	0.2519	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4340	0.1902	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4553	2.4553	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.4060	1.1779	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1240	0.0543	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5090	0.6612	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2448	1.2448	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.878	1.200	0.122	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	1.000	-0.944	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.6000	0.1500	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.6562	0.4688	0.5625
season	0.20	18	17.200	6.000	12.000	13.000	17.000	3.0566	1.4151	0.3396	0.6793	0.7359	0.9623

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4040
predicted_ER	0.3490
predicted_ERA	2.9604
predicted_H	0.8640
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8870
predicted_WHIP	1.1941

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4040	0.7605	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3490	0.1403	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9604	2.9604	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8640	0.9453	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0800	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8870	0.3565	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1941	1.1941	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.06
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

John King (667463) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 21

All-history rows before 20260515: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	Pitching_ER	0.238	3.000	-0.238	-3.000
predicted_H	Pitching_H	0.333	3.000	-0.333	-3.000
predicted_IP	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000
predicted_SO	Pitching_SO	0.762	0.000	-0.762	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	4.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	9.8182	1.6364	1.0909	1.0909	0.5454	0.5454	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	4.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	4.1538	0.9231	0.4615	0.5769	0.3462	0.5769	0.1154
season	0.20	21	18.200	5.000	7.000	7.000	16.000	2.000	2.4107	0.7500	0.2679	0.3750	0.3750	0.8571	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2250
predicted_ER	0.3150
predicted_ERA	5.1156
predicted_H	0.4790
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4510
predicted_WHIP	1.2732

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2250	0.0917	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3150	0.1284	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1156	5.1156	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4790	0.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0850	0.0346	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.4510	0.1838	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2732	1.2732	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	0
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.41
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	667463
playerID	667463
playerName	John King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Pete Fairbanks (664126) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 10

All-history rows before 20260515: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	3.000	-0.400	-3.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	3.000	0.000	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.830	0.100	-0.830	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.300	0.000	-1.300	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	9.0000	1.2500	1.0000	0.5000	0.7500	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	10.000	9.000	4.000	13.000	1.000	10.0000	1.4444	1.1111	1.0000	0.4444	1.4444	0.1111
season	0.20	10	9.000	10.000	9.000	4.000	13.000	1.000	10.0000	1.4444	1.1111	1.0000	0.4444	1.4444	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2040
predicted_ER	0.2850
predicted_ERA	5.5777
predicted_H	0.4050
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.5040
predicted_WHIP	1.3244

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2040	0.0691	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2850	0.7577	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.5777	5.5777	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4050	0.7984	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0500	0.0169	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5040	0.1708	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3244	1.3244	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	10.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260427_MIA@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	664126
playerID	664126
playerName	Pete Fairbanks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Home Team: TB

Jonathan Aranda (666018) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 39

All-history rows before 20260515: 39

System season_avg: 0.2850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2847

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.692	3.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.285	0.333	-0.035	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.590	2.000	-0.590	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.051	1.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.600	-0.133	-0.350
predicted_R	0.564	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.564	1.000	-0.564	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.846	0.000	-0.846	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.486	0.333	-0.236	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.051	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.051	1.000	0.949	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.692	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.590	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.564	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.051	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.686	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.031
predicted_BB	0.588	-0.002
predicted_H	0.970	0.140
predicted_HBP	0.113	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.026
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.042
predicted_R	0.580	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.565	0.145
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.039
predicted_SO	1.040	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.686	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.592	0.004
predicted_H	0.982	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.113	0.000
predicted_HR	0.137	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.021
predicted_R	0.595	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.024
predicted_SO	1.033	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4400	0.5000	0.3333	0.0556	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	17.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	6.000	6.000	9.000	0.4722	0.5435	0.5833	0.4722	0.0278	0.2222	0.1667	0.2500
season	0.60	39	-	144.000	41.000	5.000	8.000	33.000	22.000	23.000	41.000	0.2847	0.3829	0.4861	0.2847	0.0556	0.2292	0.1597	0.2847

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6760
predicted_AVG	0.3190
predicted_BB	0.5850
predicted_H	1.1730
predicted_HBP	0.1130
predicted_HR	0.1740
predicted_OBP	0.4087
predicted_R	0.6020
predicted_RBI	0.7770
predicted_SLG	0.4917
predicted_SO	1.0230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.1080	0.1199	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6920	3.6760	3.6855	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3190	0.2745	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5900	0.5850	0.5880	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	1.1730	0.9697	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1130	0.1130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1740	0.1361	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.4087	0.3472	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5640	0.6020	0.5795	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.7770	0.5654	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4917	0.4344	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0510	1.0230	1.0396	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.285

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	666018
playerID	666018
playerName	Jonathan Aranda
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2562

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.073	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.902	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.902	4.000	0.098	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.250	0.244	0.250
predicted_BB	0.512	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.250	0.159	0.250
predicted_R	0.634	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.634	0.000	0.366	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.463	0.000	1.537	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.481	0.250	0.019	0.250
predicted_SO	0.732	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.732	1.000	0.268	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.902	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.512	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.634	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.732	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.924	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.001
predicted_BB	0.493	-0.019
predicted_H	0.912	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.157	0.047
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.008
predicted_R	0.629	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.422	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.016
predicted_SO	0.715	-0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.924	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.496	0.003
predicted_H	0.924	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.158	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.008
predicted_R	0.645	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.433	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.710	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.902

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2273	0.2609	0.3636	0.2273	0.0454	0.0454	0.0454	0.1364
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	0.2368	0.3556	0.3947	0.2368	0.0526	0.0790	0.1842	0.1316
season	0.60	41	-	160.000	41.000	3.000	11.000	19.000	26.000	21.000	30.000	0.2562	0.3407	0.4813	0.2562	0.0688	0.1187	0.1313	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0650
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9550
predicted_AVG	0.2462
predicted_BB	0.4650
predicted_H	0.9740
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2250
predicted_OBP	0.3246
predicted_R	0.6220
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.4339
predicted_SO	0.6900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0730	0.0650	0.0697	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9020	3.9550	3.9237	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2462	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5120	0.4650	0.4928	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9740	0.9125	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2250	0.1570	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3246	0.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6340	0.6220	0.6291	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.3960	0.4220	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4339	0.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7320	0.6900	0.7148	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Yandy Díaz (650490) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2968

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.875	5.000	0.125	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.400	-0.047	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.150	2.000	-0.150	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.400	-0.125	-0.150
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	1.000	1.400	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.432	0.400	0.068	0.100
predicted_SO	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.350	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.550	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.916	0.041
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.319	-0.031
predicted_H	0.900	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.132	-
predicted_HR	0.106	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.003
predicted_R	0.448	-0.052
predicted_RBI	0.453	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.601	0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.916	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.322	0.002
predicted_H	0.912	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.132	0.000
predicted_HR	0.107	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.017
predicted_R	0.460	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.351	-0.027
predicted_SO	0.597	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.875

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.1364	0.2083	0.1364	0.1364	0.0000	0.0454	0.0454	0.2273
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2326	0.3000	0.2000	0.0250	0.1000	0.0250	0.1500
season	0.60	40	-	155.000	46.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	24.000	20.000	14.000	22.000	0.2968	0.3750	0.4323	0.2968	0.0323	0.1548	0.0903	0.1419

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.9750
predicted_AVG	0.2451
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_H	0.9740
predicted_HBP	0.1320
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.3120
predicted_R	0.3720
predicted_RBI	0.4860
predicted_SLG	0.3536
predicted_SO	0.6760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0970	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0150	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8750	3.9750	3.9157	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2451	0.2444	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3500	0.2750	0.3194	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9740	0.9005	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1320	0.1320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1010	0.1063	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3120	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3720	0.4479	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4860	0.4528	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3536	0.3781	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5500	0.6760	0.6013	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	650490
playerID	650490
playerName	Yandy Díaz
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TB
teamID	27

Chandler Simpson (802415) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 38

All-history rows before 20260515: 38

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2922

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	4.053	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.053	4.000	0.947	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.000	0.108	0.400
predicted_BB	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.211	1.000	-0.211	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.184	0.000	0.816	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.200	0.077	0.200
predicted_R	0.526	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.526	1.000	0.474	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.211	0.000	0.789	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.000	0.075	0.400
predicted_SO	0.447	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.447	1.000	0.553	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	4.053	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.211	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.447	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	0.007
predicted_3B	0.043	-0.010
predicted_AB	4.029	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.011
predicted_BB	0.207	-0.004
predicted_H	1.003	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.040
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.001
predicted_R	0.582	0.056
predicted_RBI	0.413	-0.077
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.488	0.041

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	4.029	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.209	0.001
predicted_H	1.016	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.016
predicted_R	0.597	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.485	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.053

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.2500	0.2500	0.1000	0.0500	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2619	0.2500	0.2500	0.0750	0.0250	0.1750
season	0.60	38	-	154.000	45.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	20.000	8.000	17.000	0.2922	0.3232	0.3247	0.2922	0.0520	0.0520	0.1104

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0420
predicted_3B	0.0290
predicted_AB	3.9950
predicted_AVG	0.2705
predicted_BB	0.2020
predicted_H	1.0810
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.3037
predicted_R	0.6650
predicted_RBI	0.3000
predicted_SLG	0.3102
predicted_SO	0.5490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0260	0.0420	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0290	0.0433	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0530	3.9950	4.0295	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2705	0.2547	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2110	0.2020	0.2074	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0810	1.0030	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.0200	0.0795	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3037	0.3045	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.6650	0.5823	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.3000	0.4131	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3102	0.3607	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4470	0.5490	0.4883	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	802415
playerID	802415
playerName	Chandler Simpson
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Jake Fraley (641584) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 23

All-history rows before 20260515: 23

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2466

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2470

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.174	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.174	4.000	-0.174	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.000	0.087	0.333
predicted_BB	0.348	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.348	1.000	0.652	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.783	0.000	0.217	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.200	0.179	0.300
predicted_R	0.261	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.261	0.000	0.739	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.425	0.000	-0.091	0.333
predicted_SO	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.870	2.000	0.130	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.304	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.174	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.348	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.261	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.870	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.288	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.234	0.060
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.002
predicted_BB	0.332	-0.016
predicted_H	0.728	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.088	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.003
predicted_R	0.292	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.322	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.003
predicted_SO	0.903	0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.288	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.234	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.334	0.002
predicted_H	0.738	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.008
predicted_R	0.300	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.002
predicted_SO	0.897	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.3750
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	0.2581	0.3235	0.4516	0.2581	0.0323	0.0968	0.0968	0.3548
season	0.60	23	-	73.000	18.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	8.000	20.000	0.2466	0.3210	0.4247	0.2466	0.0274	0.0685	0.1096	0.2740

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2600
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3350
predicted_AVG	0.2480
predicted_BB	0.3050
predicted_H	0.8270
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.3132
predicted_R	0.3450
predicted_RBI	0.2900
predicted_SLG	0.4041
predicted_SO	0.9580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3040	0.2600	0.2877	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1740	3.3350	3.2337	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2480	0.2455	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3480	0.3050	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8270	0.7282	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0850	0.0881	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3132	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2610	0.3450	0.2922	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.2900	0.3215	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4041	0.3984	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8700	0.9580	0.9026	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	641584
playerID	641584
playerName	Jake Fraley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Richie Palacios (680700) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2182

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	5.000	0.250	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.200	-0.218	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.200	-0.103	0.050
predicted_R	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.291	0.200	-0.291	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	3.000	0.200	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.063	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.931	0.181
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.479	-0.021
predicted_H	0.638	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.057	-
predicted_HR	0.071	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.006
predicted_R	0.343	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.369	0.069
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.873	0.073

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.063	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.931	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.482	0.003
predicted_H	0.646	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.072	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.019
predicted_R	0.352	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.378	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.316	-0.046
predicted_SO	0.867	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.2222	0.1111	0.4444
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	13.000	0.1875	0.2895	0.2188	0.1875	0.0000	0.1562	0.1562	0.4062
season	0.60	20	-	55.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	10.000	16.000	0.2182	0.3529	0.2909	0.2182	0.0182	0.1454	0.1818	0.2909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0860
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2510
predicted_AVG	0.2223
predicted_BB	0.4410
predicted_H	0.7230
predicted_HBP	0.0570
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3222
predicted_R	0.3300
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.3031
predicted_SO	1.0020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0500	0.0860	0.0630	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7500	3.2510	2.9306	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2223	0.2362	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4410	0.4787	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7230	0.6379	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0570	0.0570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0560	0.0713	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3222	0.3112	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.3300	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.4910	0.3688	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3031	0.3619	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	1.0020	0.8728	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	680700
playerID	680700
playerName	Richie Palacios
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TB
teamID	27

Hunter Feduccia (676439) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 16

All-history rows before 20260515: 16

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2564

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.064	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.438	3.000	0.562	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	1.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.250	-0.120	0.000
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_SO	0.962	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.938	3.000	-0.938	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.064	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.962	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.085	0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.672	0.172
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.002
predicted_BB	0.366	-0.019
predicted_H	0.578	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.080	-
predicted_HR	0.053	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.012
predicted_R	0.407	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.253	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.960	-0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.085	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.672	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.368	0.002
predicted_H	0.585	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.080	0.000
predicted_HR	0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.003
predicted_R	0.417	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.311	-0.063
predicted_SO	0.953	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2308	0.3333	0.3077	0.2308	0.0000	0.0769	0.3846
last_10	0.20	10	-	26.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2692	0.3667	0.3077	0.2692	0.0769	0.1154	0.3462
season	0.60	16	-	39.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	15.000	0.2564	0.3696	0.2821	0.2564	0.0769	0.1538	0.3846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1260
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.0130
predicted_AVG	0.2499
predicted_BB	0.3270
predicted_H	0.7530
predicted_HBP	0.0800
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.3395
predicted_R	0.4500
predicted_RBI	0.2600
predicted_SLG	0.3327
predicted_SO	0.9550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0640	0.1260	0.0847	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0013	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.0130	2.6716	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2499	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.3270	0.3656	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.7530	0.5780	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0800	0.0800	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0380	0.0526	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3395	0.3165	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.4500	0.4067	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2600	0.2533	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3327	0.3742	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9620	0.9550	0.9597	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	676439
playerID	676439
playerName	Hunter Feduccia
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Cedric Mullins (656775) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 33

All-history rows before 20260515: 33

System season_avg: 0.1380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1382

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	3.000	0.273	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.138	0.333	0.112	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.121	1.000	-0.121	-1.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.515	1.000	0.485	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.195	0.500	0.055	-0.250
predicted_R	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.220	0.333	0.030	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.758	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.758	0.000	-0.758	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.758	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.735	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.172	-0.010
predicted_H	0.734	-0.066
predicted_HBP	0.099	-
predicted_HR	0.081	-0.019
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.033
predicted_R	0.273	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.442	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.332	-0.063
predicted_SO	0.732	-0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.174	0.001
predicted_H	0.743	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.099	0.000
predicted_HR	0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.235	-0.038
predicted_R	0.280	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.454	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.294	-0.038
predicted_SO	0.727	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1351	0.1795	0.1351	0.1351	0.0000	0.1351	0.0270	0.1622
season	0.60	33	-	123.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	13.000	9.000	6.000	25.000	0.1382	0.1955	0.2195	0.1382	0.0163	0.1057	0.0488	0.2032

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.7470
predicted_AVG	0.1689
predicted_BB	0.1580
predicted_H	0.6330
predicted_HBP	0.0990
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.2220
predicted_R	0.2730
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.2365
predicted_SO	0.6920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0610	0.0620	0.0614	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0170	0.0248	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	3.7470	3.7349	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1689	0.2142	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.1580	0.1725	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.6330	0.7338	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0990	0.0990	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0520	0.0810	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2220	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.2730	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4910	0.4421	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2365	0.3322	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7580	0.6920	0.7319	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.138

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	656775
playerID	656775
playerName	Cedric Mullins
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Taylor Walls (670764) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 30

All-history rows before 20260515: 30

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2065

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2070

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.067	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.067	4.000	-0.067	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.250	0.127	0.083
predicted_BB	0.433	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.433	0.000	0.567	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.633	1.000	0.367	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.189	0.250
predicted_R	0.433	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.433	0.000	0.567	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.261	0.250	0.072	0.083
predicted_SO	0.867	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.867	1.000	0.133	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.067	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.433	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.433	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.867	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.046	0.013
predicted_AB	3.133	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.426	-0.007
predicted_H	0.644	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.022
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.003
predicted_R	0.428	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.326	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.841	-0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.000
predicted_3B	0.046	0.000
predicted_AB	3.133	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.429	0.003
predicted_H	0.652	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.058	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.005
predicted_R	0.440	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.334	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.323	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.835	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.3750	0.2500	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.2000	0.3143	0.2667	0.2000	0.1333	0.1667	0.1667
season	0.60	30	-	92.000	19.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	13.000	13.000	26.000	0.2065	0.3113	0.2609	0.2065	0.0870	0.1413	0.2826

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0830
predicted_3B	0.0670
predicted_AB	3.2380
predicted_AVG	0.2205
predicted_BB	0.4150
predicted_H	0.7140
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.3139
predicted_R	0.4210
predicted_RBI	0.3510
predicted_SLG	0.3091
predicted_SO	0.7990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0830	0.0934	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0670	0.0461	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0670	3.2380	3.1329	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2205	0.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4330	0.4150	0.4261	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7140	0.6439	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0230	0.0580	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3139	0.3084	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4330	0.4210	0.4284	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3510	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3091	0.3619	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8670	0.7990	0.8408	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	670764
playerID	670764
playerName	Taylor Walls
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Ian Seymour (693855) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	1.056	0.000	4.944	6.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.100	4.094	3.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	1.278	2.000	3.722	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.8000	0.4000	1.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	11.000	2.000	2.7000	1.3000	0.3000	0.7000	0.6000	1.1000	0.2000
season	0.20	17	19.100	7.000	14.000	8.000	23.000	2.000	3.2586	1.1379	0.3621	0.7241	0.4138	1.1897	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1350
predicted_ER	1.1290
predicted_ERA	3.7703
predicted_H	2.3100
predicted_HR	0.4080
predicted_IP	2.2000
predicted_SO	2.8250
predicted_WHIP	1.2780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.1350	1.0555	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.1290	1.6419	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7703	3.7703	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	2.3100	4.4828	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4080	0.1678	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	2.2000	3.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	2.8250	4.1057	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2780	1.2780	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	85

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.59
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	693855
playerID	693855
playerName	Ian Seymour
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.421	4.000	-0.421	-4.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.863	0.200	0.237	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.053	1.000	-0.053	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	2.2500	1.5000	0.2500	0.2500	1.2500	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	0.000	1.0000	0.8889	0.1111	0.3333	0.5556	1.2222	0.0000
season	0.20	19	17.100	5.000	10.000	8.000	20.000	1.000	2.5962	1.0385	0.2885	0.5769	0.4615	1.1539	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5370
predicted_ER	0.3390
predicted_ERA	3.2516
predicted_H	0.6540
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0010
predicted_WHIP	1.2688

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5370	0.2148	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3390	0.1356	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2516	3.2516	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6540	0.2615	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0760	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0010	1.0004	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2688	1.2688	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Cole Sulser (642121) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.167	0.000	-1.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.144	1.100	-0.144	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.889	0.000	-0.889	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4545	0.0000	0.2727	0.1818	0.7273	0.0000
season	0.20	17	22.000	6.000	19.000	8.000	16.000	1.000	2.4545	1.2273	0.2727	0.8636	0.3636	0.7273	0.0454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_ER	0.2830
predicted_ERA	2.4669
predicted_H	0.6460
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8420
predicted_WHIP	0.8930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2750	0.1168	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2830	0.1202	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4669	2.4669	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6460	0.2743	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8420	0.3576	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8930	0.8930	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.27
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	642121
playerID	642121
playerName	Cole Sulser
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Garrett Cleavinger (664076) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 9

All-history rows before 20260515: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.700	0.100	0.500	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.111	1.000	-0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	2.4545	1.0909	0.2727	0.8182	0.2727	1.6364
last_10	0.35	9	7.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	3.8571	1.7143	0.4286	1.0000	0.7143	1.4286
season	0.20	9	7.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	3.8571	1.7143	0.4286	1.0000	0.7143	1.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2630
predicted_ER	0.2910
predicted_ERA	3.9339
predicted_H	0.6190
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7260
predicted_WHIP	1.3226

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2630	0.0840	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2910	0.0930	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9339	3.9339	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6190	0.1978	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0670	0.0214	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7260	0.9125	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3226	1.3226	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	664076
playerID	664076
playerName	Garrett Cleavinger
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

20260515_MIL@MIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 MIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 MIN", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 MIN", "winner": "MIL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 1 MIN", "winner": "MIL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	MIL 4 - 3 MIN	MIL	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	MIL 4 - 1 MIN	MIL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away MIL	7-3	0.700	4.30	2.60	17	1W	average	strong
Home MIN	6-4	0.600	5	4.90	1	1W	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away MIL	24-17	0.585	60	1.463	True
Home MIN	20-24	0.455	-5	-0.114	True
Signal	-	-	-1.577	-1.773	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target MIL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target MIN	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized MIL	34	9	7	0	5	4	9
Player finalized MIN	33	9	4	0	2	3	9
Player model fractional MIL	33.30	7.91	5.17	0.90	4.17	4.24	7.41
Player model fractional MIN	31.83	7.18	4.80	0.89	3.69	4.05	7.84
Simulation box MIL	31	5	4	1	4	4	9
Simulation box MIN	32	5	1	1	1	3	11

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away MIL	Starter	Coleman Crow	5	1	8	4	2	4.06	1.26	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Aaron Ashby	1.10	0	1	0	0	2.59	1.20	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Abner Uribe	1	0	2	1	1	4.90	1.29	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Trevor Megill	1	0	0	0	0	3.74	1.19	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	DL Hall	0.20	0	0	0	0	3.31	1.21	True
Home MIN	Starter	Joe Ryan	5.20	2	7	2	2	3.57	1.15	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Eric Orze	1.10	1	1	0	0	3.97	1.38	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Justin Topa	1	1	1	3	2	7.58	1.74	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Taylor Rogers	1	0	0	0	0	3.33	1.32	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: MIL

Jackson Chourio (694192) · BATTER · LF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.375	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.375	5.000	-1.375	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.000	0.048	0.333
predicted_BB	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.250	0.000	-0.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.000	0.158	0.500
predicted_R	0.125	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.000	-0.038	0.333
predicted_SO	1.250	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	4.000	0.750	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.375	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.375	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.125	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.306	-0.069
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.296	-0.079
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.364	-0.011
predicted_H	0.978	-0.042
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.107	-0.023
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.008
predicted_R	0.169	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.471	-0.049
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.031
predicted_SO	1.207	-0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.306	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	4.296	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.368	0.004
predicted_H	1.002	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.003
predicted_R	0.176	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.491	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.018
predicted_SO	1.194	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.375

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	0.1364	0.2083	0.1364	0.1364	0.0454	0.0909	0.3182
last_10	0.20	8	-	35.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	0.2857	0.3421	0.3714	0.2857	0.0857	0.0857	0.2857
season	0.60	8	-	35.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	0.2857	0.3421	0.3714	0.2857	0.0857	0.0857	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.1280
predicted_AVG	0.2151
predicted_BB	0.3420
predicted_H	0.8880
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.2792
predicted_R	0.2620
predicted_RBI	0.3660
predicted_SLG	0.2995
predicted_SO	1.1160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3750	0.1600	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3750	4.1280	4.2957	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2151	0.2347	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3420	0.3644	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	0.8880	0.9776	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.0580	0.1069	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2792	0.2967	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1250	0.2620	0.1690	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.3660	0.4706	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2995	0.3643	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.1160	1.2070	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	4
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	694192
playerID	694192
playerName	Jackson Chourio
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brice Turang (668930) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 38

All-history rows before 20260515: 38

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2979

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	2.000	0.289	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.298	0.500	-0.298	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.816	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.816	2.000	-0.816	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.105	1.000	-1.105	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.422	0.750	-0.422	-0.750
predicted_R	0.868	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.868	2.000	-0.868	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.711	1.000	-0.711	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.511	1.000	-0.511	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.921	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.921	1.000	0.079	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.816	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.868	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.921	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.728	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.021
predicted_BB	0.748	-0.068
predicted_H	0.938	0.118
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.023
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.038
predicted_R	0.830	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.543	0.123
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.046
predicted_SO	0.880	-0.041

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.728	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.756	0.008
predicted_H	0.962	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.137	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.040
predicted_R	0.866	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.567	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.451	0.010
predicted_SO	0.870	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.5789	0.3158	0.0526	0.2632	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	7.000	7.000	0.3158	0.4222	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.1842	0.1842	0.1842
season	0.60	38	-	141.000	42.000	10.000	1.000	6.000	27.000	33.000	31.000	35.000	0.2979	0.4220	0.5106	0.2979	0.0425	0.1915	0.2199	0.2482

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2630
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.7540
predicted_AVG	0.2960
predicted_BB	0.6490
predicted_H	1.1110
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_OBP	0.3978
predicted_R	0.7740
predicted_RBI	0.7230
predicted_SLG	0.5078
predicted_SO	0.8200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.2630	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0160	0.0219	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.7540	3.7285	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2960	0.2652	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8160	0.6490	0.7481	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.1110	0.9384	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1670	0.1332	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3978	0.3427	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8680	0.7740	0.8298	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.7230	0.5433	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5078	0.4409	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9210	0.8200	0.8799	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	668930
playerID	668930
playerName	Brice Turang
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIL
teamID	16

William Contreras (661388) · BATTER · C · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 38

All-history rows before 20260515: 38

System season_avg: 0.2830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2829

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	0.789	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.283	0.000	-0.033	0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.132	0.000	-0.132	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.400	-0.114	-0.150
predicted_R	0.605	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.605	1.000	-0.605	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.105	0.500
predicted_SO	0.526	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.605	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.526	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.911	-0.089
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.005
predicted_BB	0.537	0.037
predicted_H	0.927	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.035	-
predicted_HR	0.094	-0.026
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.020
predicted_R	0.569	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.377	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.558	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.911	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.542	0.006
predicted_H	0.951	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.035	0.000
predicted_HR	0.097	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.010
predicted_R	0.594	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.511	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.008
predicted_SO	0.552	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	0.2500	0.4091	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.1250	0.3125	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	0.1892	0.3111	0.2162	0.1892	0.0000	0.0811	0.1622	0.1622
season	0.60	38	-	152.000	43.000	8.000	3.000	26.000	23.000	19.000	20.000	0.2829	0.3642	0.3947	0.2829	0.0197	0.1711	0.1250	0.1316

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1860
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7820
predicted_AVG	0.2555
predicted_BB	0.5900
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HBP	0.0350
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3541
predicted_R	0.5160
predicted_RBI	0.5330
predicted_SLG	0.3502
predicted_SO	0.6060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.1860	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.7820	3.9113	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2555	0.2487	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5900	0.5366	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9670	0.9273	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0350	0.0350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.0560	0.0940	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3541	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6050	0.5160	0.5688	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5330	0.4897	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3502	0.3768	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5260	0.6060	0.5585	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.283

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	661388
playerID	661388
playerName	William Contreras
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

David Hamilton (666152) · BATTER · SS · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 31

All-history rows before 20260515: 31

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2371

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.129	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.129	3.000	0.871	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.333	-0.237	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.419	1.000	-0.419	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.742	1.000	-0.742	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	-0.333	-0.500
predicted_R	0.548	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.548	1.000	-0.548	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.258	0.333	-0.258	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.742	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.742	1.000	1.258	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.129	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.419	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.548	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.742	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.078	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.241	0.112
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.385	-0.034
predicted_H	0.678	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.022
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.002
predicted_R	0.540	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.287	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.350	-0.045
predicted_SO	0.794	0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.078	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.241	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.389	0.004
predicted_H	0.695	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.005
predicted_R	0.563	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.294	-0.056
predicted_SO	0.785	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	10.000	0.2500	0.2895	0.3056	0.2500	0.0833	0.0556	0.2778
season	0.60	31	-	97.000	23.000	2.000	7.000	17.000	13.000	23.000	0.2371	0.3333	0.2577	0.2371	0.0722	0.1340	0.2371

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0980
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4190
predicted_AVG	0.2295
predicted_BB	0.3310
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.3011
predicted_R	0.5270
predicted_RBI	0.2520
predicted_SLG	0.2800
predicted_SO	0.8760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0650	0.0980	0.0778	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1290	3.4190	3.2414	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2295	0.2384	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4190	0.3310	0.3849	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7850	0.6779	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0230	0.0579	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3011	0.3035	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5480	0.5270	0.5399	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.2520	0.2875	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2800	0.3504	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7420	0.8760	0.7940	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-2B
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	666152
playerID	666152
playerName	David Hamilton
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

Andrew Vaughn (683734) · BATTER · DH · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 7

All-history rows before 20260515: 7

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2917

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.429	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	3.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.667	-0.292	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	1.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.414	0.750	-0.164	-0.500
predicted_R	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.857	2.000	-0.857	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.429	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.285	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.461	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.016
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000
predicted_H	0.826	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.134	-
predicted_HR	0.117	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.025
predicted_R	0.718	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.110
predicted_SLG	0.430	0.035
predicted_SO	0.616	0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.285	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.461	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.434	0.005
predicted_H	0.847	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.134	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.001
predicted_R	0.749	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.501	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.002
predicted_SO	0.609	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	0.3750	0.5000	0.6875	0.3750	0.0625	0.3125	0.1875	0.1875
last_10	0.20	7	-	24.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.2917	0.4138	0.5000	0.2917	0.0417	0.2500	0.1250	0.1667
season	0.60	7	-	24.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.2917	0.4138	0.5000	0.2917	0.0417	0.2500	0.1250	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2820
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.5350
predicted_AVG	0.2966
predicted_BB	0.4290
predicted_H	1.0490
predicted_HBP	0.1340
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_OBP	0.3889
predicted_R	0.7260
predicted_RBI	0.7350
predicted_SLG	0.5122
predicted_SO	0.7200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2820	0.2848	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4290	3.5350	3.4609	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2966	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.4290	0.4290	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	1.0490	0.8261	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1340	0.1340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1560	0.1169	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3889	0.3303	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.7260	0.7176	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.7350	0.4800	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5122	0.4303	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.7200	0.6159	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	683734
playerID	683734
playerName	Andrew Vaughn
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Luis Rengifo (650859) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 29

All-history rows before 20260515: 29

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2315

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.724	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.724	4.000	0.276	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.500	0.019	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.345	0.000	-0.345	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.862	2.000	0.138	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.500	-0.050	-0.250
predicted_R	0.379	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.379	0.000	0.621	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.483	3.000	0.517	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.500	-0.056	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.414	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.414	0.000	0.586	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.724	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.345	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.379	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.414	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.714	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.011
predicted_BB	0.361	0.016
predicted_H	0.856	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.030
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.015
predicted_R	0.398	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.453	0.063
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.426	0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.365	0.004
predicted_H	0.878	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.072	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.015
predicted_R	0.415	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.473	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.421	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	0.4118	0.5000	0.4118	0.4118	0.1765	0.1765	0.0588
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.2895	0.3571	0.3158	0.2895	0.2105	0.1053	0.0790
season	0.60	29	-	108.000	25.000	8.000	14.000	11.000	10.000	12.000	0.2315	0.3000	0.3056	0.2315	0.1296	0.0926	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6990
predicted_AVG	0.2721
predicted_BB	0.3860
predicted_H	1.0060
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.3422
predicted_R	0.4280
predicted_RBI	0.5510
predicted_SLG	0.3420
predicted_SO	0.4450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2760	0.1820	0.2392	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7240	3.6990	3.7142	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2721	0.2550	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3450	0.3860	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	1.0060	0.8563	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0240	0.0702	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3422	0.3196	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3790	0.4280	0.3982	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.5510	0.4530	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3420	0.3743	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4140	0.4450	0.4261	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	650859
playerID	650859
playerName	Luis Rengifo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jake Bauers (641343) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 32

All-history rows before 20260515: 32

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2750

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.219	1.000	-0.219	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.250	0.392	0.417
predicted_BB	0.469	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.469	0.000	0.531	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.031	1.000	0.969	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	0.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.250	0.394	0.500
predicted_R	0.719	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.719	0.000	0.281	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.483	0.500	1.183	1.167
predicted_SO	0.906	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.906	2.000	0.094	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.469	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.719	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.906	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.038
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.701	-0.049
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.021
predicted_BB	0.482	0.013
predicted_H	0.923	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.031
predicted_R	0.709	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.050
predicted_SO	0.924	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.701	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.487	0.005
predicted_H	0.947	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.136	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.007
predicted_R	0.740	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.435	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.914	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.4375	0.5263	0.8125	0.4375	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	11.000	0.2857	0.4048	0.4857	0.2857	0.0286	0.1143	0.2000	0.3143
season	0.60	32	-	120.000	33.000	7.000	6.000	20.000	23.000	15.000	29.000	0.2750	0.3556	0.4833	0.2750	0.0500	0.1667	0.1250	0.2417

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6270
predicted_AVG	0.2977
predicted_BB	0.5020
predicted_H	1.0800
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1640
predicted_OBP	0.3825
predicted_R	0.6940
predicted_RBI	0.5210
predicted_SLG	0.5214
predicted_SO	0.9510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2190	0.3140	0.2567	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.6270	3.7012	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2977	0.2653	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4690	0.5020	0.4821	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.0800	0.9232	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1640	0.1314	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3825	0.3358	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7190	0.6940	0.7091	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5210	0.4601	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5214	0.4452	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9060	0.9510	0.9239	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	641343
playerID	641343
playerName	Jake Bauers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

Garrett Mitchell (669003) · BATTER · CF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 31

All-history rows before 20260515: 31

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2294

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.258	2.000	-0.258	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.516	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.516	4.000	-0.516	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.500	-0.229	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.613	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.613	0.000	0.387	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.806	2.000	-0.806	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.500	-0.096	-0.250
predicted_R	0.516	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.516	0.000	-0.516	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.710	0.000	-0.710	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.349	1.000	-0.349	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.484	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.484	0.000	-0.484	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.516	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.613	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.516	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.484	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.264	0.006
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.573	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.551	-0.062
predicted_H	0.775	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.025
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.002
predicted_R	0.512	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.431	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.468	-0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.264	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.573	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.557	0.006
predicted_H	0.794	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.020
predicted_R	0.535	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.449	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.377	0.002
predicted_SO	1.452	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	0.2222	0.2500	0.3333	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	16.000	0.2000	0.2667	0.2750	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.4000
season	0.60	31	-	109.000	25.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	22.000	16.000	19.000	46.000	0.2294	0.3462	0.3486	0.2294	0.0092	0.2018	0.1743	0.4220

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2740
predicted_3B	0.0190
predicted_AB	3.6610
predicted_AVG	0.2262
predicted_BB	0.4550
predicted_H	0.8280
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.3100
predicted_R	0.5070
predicted_RBI	0.5080
predicted_SLG	0.3428
predicted_SO	1.4430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2580	0.2740	0.2643	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0190	0.0269	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5160	3.6610	3.5733	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2262	0.2370	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6130	0.4550	0.5506	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8280	0.7748	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0380	0.0755	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3100	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5160	0.5070	0.5124	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.5080	0.4306	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3428	0.3744	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4840	1.4430	1.4678	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669003
playerID	669003
playerName	Garrett Mitchell
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Sal Frelick (686217) · BATTER · RF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 35

All-history rows before 20260515: 35

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2177

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.647	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.543	4.000	-0.543	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.250	-0.218	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	1.000	-0.057	-1.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.771	1.000	-0.771	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.250	-0.303	-0.250
predicted_R	0.529	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	0.486	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.343	0.000	0.657	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.250	-0.306	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.559	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.543	3.000	-0.543	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.647	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.382	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.559	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.060	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.678	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.339	-0.043
predicted_H	0.809	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.014
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.005
predicted_R	0.510	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.384	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.035
predicted_SO	0.623	0.064

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.060	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.678	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.343	0.004
predicted_H	0.830	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.089	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.009
predicted_R	0.532	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.401	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.315	-0.045
predicted_SO	0.617	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.1579	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.0790	0.0526	0.1579
season	0.60	34	-	124.000	27.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	18.000	13.000	19.000	0.2177	0.2971	0.3065	0.2177	0.0242	0.0806	0.1048	0.1532

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0610
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7240
predicted_AVG	0.2373
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_H	0.8840
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.2935
predicted_R	0.4820
predicted_RBI	0.3760
predicted_SLG	0.3080
predicted_SO	0.7210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.0610	0.0598	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6470	3.7240	3.6776	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2373	0.2413	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3820	0.2740	0.3390	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8840	0.8093	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0660	0.0865	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2935	0.3004	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.4820	0.5103	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3760	0.3844	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3080	0.3604	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5590	0.7210	0.6234	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	686217
playerID	686217
playerName	Sal Frelick
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Coleman Crow (689441) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 1

All-history rows before 20260515: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.100	5.100	-0.100	-0.100
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	5.100	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	3.3750	0.9375	0.3750	0.7500	0.1875	0.7500
last_10	0.35	1	5.100	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	3.3750	0.9375	0.3750	0.7500	0.1875	0.7500
season	0.20	1	5.100	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	3.3750	0.9375	0.3750	0.7500	0.1875	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7650
predicted_ER	2.2800
predicted_ERA	4.0592
predicted_H	4.5890
predicted_HR	0.5440
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.6740
predicted_WHIP	1.2567

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.7650	1.9300	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.2800	1.3814	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0592	4.0592	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.5890	4.1755	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5440	0.8641	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	4.6740	7.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2567	1.2567	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	8
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	77
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260417_MIL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	689441
playerID	689441
playerName	Coleman Crow
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Aaron Ashby (676879) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.950	0.000	-0.950	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.210	1.000	-0.110	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.150	2.000	-1.150	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.200	1.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	0.000	1.0385	0.9231	0.1154	0.4615	0.4615	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	1.000	7.000	9.000	21.000	0.000	0.6750	1.2000	0.0750	0.5250	0.6750	1.5750	0.0000
season	0.20	20	27.000	6.000	19.000	15.000	43.000	1.000	2.0000	1.2593	0.2222	0.7037	0.5556	1.5926	0.0370

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6650
predicted_ER	0.4070
predicted_ERA	2.5948
predicted_H	1.0280
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.7810
predicted_WHIP	1.1997

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6650	0.2968	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4070	0.1816	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5948	2.5948	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0280	0.4588	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0930	0.0415	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.7810	1.3485	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1997	1.1997	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	676879
playerID	676879
playerName	Aaron Ashby
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Abner Uribe (682842) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	3.000	-0.500	-3.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.722	2.000	0.278	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.817	1.000	0.183	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	1.000	1.056	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	7.2000	1.4000	0.8000	0.8000	0.6000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	9.000	2.000	5.0000	1.1111	0.5556	0.5556	0.5556	1.0000	0.2222
season	0.20	18	16.100	9.000	13.000	6.000	17.000	2.000	4.9592	1.1633	0.5510	0.7959	0.3674	1.0408	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4430
predicted_ER	0.5440
predicted_ERA	4.8993
predicted_H	0.8500
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9430
predicted_WHIP	1.2934

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4430	0.7806	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5440	0.2143	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8993	4.8993	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8500	0.9409	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1540	0.0607	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9430	1.5837	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2934	1.2934	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.96
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	682842
playerID	682842
playerName	Abner Uribe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Trevor Megill (656730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 16

All-history rows before 20260515: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.875	2.000	-0.875	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.938	1.000	0.062	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.188	3.000	-1.188	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	14.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.4000
season	0.20	15	15.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	19.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.8000	0.4000	1.2667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3290
predicted_ER	0.4150
predicted_ERA	3.7379
predicted_H	0.8610
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1140
predicted_WHIP	1.1895

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3290	0.1268	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4150	0.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7379	3.7379	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8610	0.3318	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0810	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1140	0.4293	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1895	1.1895	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656730
playerID	656730
playerName	Trevor Megill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

DL Hall (669084) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.956	1.000	-0.756	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.222	1.000	-1.222	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	1.5882	0.8824	0.1765	0.1765	0.7059	0.8823	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	4.000	5.000	9.000	12.000	1.000	3.1765	1.2353	0.3529	0.4412	0.7941	1.0588	0.0882
season	0.20	18	20.000	4.000	10.000	15.000	22.000	1.000	1.8000	1.2500	0.2000	0.5000	0.7500	1.1000	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4420
predicted_ER	0.2990
predicted_ERA	3.3056
predicted_H	0.5460
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7910
predicted_WHIP	1.2137

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4420	0.1833	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2990	0.1240	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3056	3.3056	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5460	0.2264	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0303	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7910	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2137	1.2137	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669084
playerID	669084
playerName	DL Hall
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Home Team: MIN

Royce Lewis (668904) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 28

All-history rows before 20260515: 28

System season_avg: 0.1610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1613

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.321	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.321	3.000	0.679	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.161	0.000	0.089	0.250
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.536	0.000	0.464	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.250	-0.019	0.000
predicted_R	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.393	1.000	-0.393	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.290	0.000	-0.040	0.250
predicted_SO	1.107	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.107	0.000	-1.107	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.321	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.393	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.107	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.352	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.428	-0.001
predicted_H	0.649	-0.061
predicted_HBP	0.057	-
predicted_HR	0.084	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.015
predicted_R	0.415	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.347	-0.048
predicted_SO	1.069	-0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.352	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.427	-0.001
predicted_H	0.640	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.083	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.008
predicted_R	0.404	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.352	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.301	-0.046
predicted_SO	1.072	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	11.000	0.0909	0.2051	0.1212	0.0909	0.0000	0.0606	0.1212	0.3333
season	0.60	28	-	93.000	15.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	11.000	12.000	31.000	0.1613	0.2685	0.2903	0.1613	0.0323	0.1290	0.1290	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1360
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4020
predicted_AVG	0.1625
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_H	0.5530
predicted_HBP	0.0570
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.2658
predicted_R	0.4500
predicted_RBI	0.3640
predicted_SLG	0.2704
predicted_SO	1.0100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.1360	0.1182	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3210	3.4020	3.3523	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1625	0.2125	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.4260	0.4278	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.5530	0.6493	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0570	0.0570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0750	0.0842	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2658	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3930	0.4500	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3640	0.3615	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2704	0.3469	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1070	1.0100	1.0695	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.161

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668904
playerID	668904
playerName	Royce Lewis
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Ryan Kreidler (668952) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 6

All-history rows before 20260515: 6

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2941

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.833	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.833	3.000	1.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.667	-0.044	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	2.000	0.167	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.455	0.750	-0.205	-0.500
predicted_R	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.833	3.000	-0.833	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.706	0.667	-0.456	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.833	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.833	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.008
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.966	0.133
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.015
predicted_BB	0.784	-0.049
predicted_H	0.686	0.116
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.056
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.028
predicted_R	0.814	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.392	0.102
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.058
predicted_SO	0.692	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.966	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.783	-0.002
predicted_H	0.676	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.123	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.056
predicted_R	0.793	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.382	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.413	-0.041
predicted_SO	0.693	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	0.3846	0.5556	0.9231	0.3846	0.1538	0.3077	0.3846	0.2308
last_10	0.20	6	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	0.2941	0.4545	0.7059	0.2941	0.1177	0.2353	0.2941	0.2353
season	0.60	6	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	0.2941	0.4545	0.7059	0.2941	0.1177	0.2353	0.2941	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1940
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.3070
predicted_AVG	0.2970
predicted_BB	0.6600
predicted_H	0.9820
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.2680
predicted_OBP	0.4041
predicted_R	0.7660
predicted_RBI	0.6510
predicted_SLG	0.6028
predicted_SO	0.7540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1940	0.1746	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8330	3.3070	2.9663	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2970	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8330	0.6600	0.7843	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.9820	0.6859	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.2680	0.1257	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.4041	0.3329	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8330	0.7660	0.8142	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.6510	0.3915	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.6028	0.4534	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7540	0.6915	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668952
playerID	668952
playerName	Ryan Kreidler
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Josh Bell (605137) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	1.000	-0.175	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.250	-0.211	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.250	-0.280	-0.250
predicted_R	0.525	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.525	0.000	-0.525	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.575	2.000	-0.575	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.316	0.500	-0.316	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.025	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.025	3.000	-0.025	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.350	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.525	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.025	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.841	0.041
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.300	-0.050
predicted_H	0.820	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.089	-0.021
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.022
predicted_R	0.454	-0.071
predicted_RBI	0.507	0.087
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.035
predicted_SO	1.157	0.132

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.841	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.299	-0.001
predicted_H	0.808	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.087	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.016
predicted_R	0.443	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.494	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.031
predicted_SO	1.159	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	12.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2500	0.0000	0.6000
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	18.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2143	0.1667	0.0000	0.1429	0.0000	0.4286
season	0.60	40	-	152.000	32.000	7.000	3.000	23.000	21.000	14.000	41.000	0.2105	0.2798	0.3158	0.2105	0.0197	0.1513	0.0921	0.2697

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9010
predicted_AVG	0.2063
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_H	0.8050
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.2509
predicted_R	0.3510
predicted_RBI	0.6340
predicted_SLG	0.3078
predicted_SO	1.3500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.2170	0.1920	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.9010	3.8410	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2063	0.2287	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3500	0.2270	0.3001	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8050	0.8199	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0580	0.0889	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2509	0.2831	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5250	0.3510	0.4544	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.6340	0.5068	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3078	0.3596	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0250	1.3500	1.1568	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	605137
playerID	605137
playerName	Josh Bell
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

James Outman (681546) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.667	-0.214	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	2.000	-0.750	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.241	0.750	-0.241	-0.750
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	3.000	-0.375	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.321	1.000	-0.321	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.250	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	0.000	0.750	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.375	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.366	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.573	0.073
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.005
predicted_BB	0.156	0.031
predicted_H	0.769	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.081	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.001
predicted_R	0.527	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.393	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.003
predicted_SO	1.132	-0.118

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.366	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.573	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.037
predicted_BB	0.156	-0.000
predicted_H	0.757	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.245	-0.061
predicted_R	0.513	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.383	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.383	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.134	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.4737	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	8	-	28.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	10.000	0.2143	0.2414	0.3214	0.2143	0.1071	0.0357	0.3571
season	0.60	8	-	28.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	10.000	0.2143	0.2414	0.3214	0.2143	0.1071	0.0357	0.3571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3450
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7430
predicted_AVG	0.2605
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	0.9750
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.3073
predicted_R	0.5890
predicted_RBI	0.4920
predicted_SLG	0.4053
predicted_SO	0.8570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3750	0.3450	0.3660	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7430	3.5732	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2605	0.2490	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.2280	0.1560	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.9750	0.7689	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0610	0.0813	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3073	0.3057	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5890	0.5268	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4920	0.3928	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4053	0.3981	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	0.8570	1.1316	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681546
playerID	681546
playerName	James Outman
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Austin Martin (668885) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 28

All-history rows before 20260515: 28

System season_avg: 0.3370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3367

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.337	0.500	0.413	0.250
predicted_BB	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.179	2.000	1.821	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	0.964	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.800	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.455	0.600	0.345	0.200
predicted_R	0.464	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.464	1.000	0.536	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.357	3.000	0.643	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.750	1.071	0.750
predicted_SO	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.714	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.464	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.611	0.111
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.038
predicted_BB	0.647	-0.067
predicted_H	1.003	0.183
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.084	-0.026
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.047
predicted_R	0.472	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.021
predicted_SO	0.575	0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.611	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.646	-0.001
predicted_H	0.988	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.043	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.384	0.032
predicted_R	0.460	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.427	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.409	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.577	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4783	0.5714	0.4286	0.0000	0.1905	0.0952	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	16.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.3810	0.4348	0.4524	0.3810	0.0000	0.1191	0.0952	0.0952
season	0.60	28	-	98.000	33.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	13.000	20.000	16.000	0.3367	0.4545	0.4286	0.3367	0.0102	0.1020	0.2041	0.1633

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2770
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7830
predicted_AVG	0.3401
predicted_BB	0.5430
predicted_H	1.2870
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.4255
predicted_R	0.4840
predicted_RBI	0.4670
predicted_SLG	0.4485
predicted_SO	0.5820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.2770	0.2387	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7830	3.6109	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3401	0.2817	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7140	0.5430	0.6470	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.2870	1.0030	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0430	0.0837	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.4255	0.3522	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4640	0.4840	0.4718	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4670	0.4384	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4485	0.4160	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.5820	0.5753	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.337

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668885
playerID	668885
playerName	Austin Martin
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Clemens (665019) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 27

All-history rows before 20260515: 27

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2340

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.259	1.000	-0.259	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.481	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.481	4.000	0.519	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.500	-0.234	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.815	2.000	-0.815	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.148	1.000	-0.148	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.500	-0.339	-0.500
predicted_R	0.519	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.519	1.000	-0.519	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.370	1.000	-0.370	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.436	1.500	-0.436	-1.500
predicted_SO	1.037	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.037	0.000	0.963	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.481	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.407	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.519	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.037	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.284	0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.479	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.006
predicted_BB	0.373	-0.034
predicted_H	0.801	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.143	-
predicted_HR	0.117	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.016
predicted_R	0.542	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.363	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.427	0.032
predicted_SO	1.001	-0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.284	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.479	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.372	-0.001
predicted_H	0.790	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.143	0.000
predicted_HR	0.114	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.019
predicted_R	0.528	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.353	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.408	-0.019
predicted_SO	1.003	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.3529	0.3889	0.7059	0.3529	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	9.000	0.2581	0.3784	0.4839	0.2581	0.0323	0.0645	0.1290	0.2903
season	0.60	27	-	94.000	22.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	14.000	11.000	28.000	0.2340	0.3394	0.4362	0.2340	0.0425	0.1064	0.1170	0.2979

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3240
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4770
predicted_AVG	0.2586
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HBP	0.1430
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.3459
predicted_R	0.5780
predicted_RBI	0.3350
predicted_SLG	0.4770
predicted_SO	0.9430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2590	0.3240	0.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4810	3.4770	3.4795	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2586	0.2496	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4070	0.3180	0.3726	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8990	0.8015	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1430	0.1430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1430	0.1166	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3459	0.3208	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5190	0.5780	0.5418	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3350	0.3626	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4770	0.4267	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0370	0.9430	1.0006	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	665019
playerID	665019
playerName	Kody Clemens
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luke Keaschall (807712) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2258

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.690	4.000	-1.690	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.250	-0.226	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.429	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	1.571	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.189	0.250
predicted_R	0.452	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	1.000	-0.452	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.238	1.000	-0.238	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.297	0.250	-0.297	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.635	-0.055
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.449	0.020
predicted_H	0.774	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.083	-
predicted_HR	0.071	-0.029
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.006
predicted_R	0.449	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.343	-0.057
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.043
predicted_SO	0.712	0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.635	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.449	-0.001
predicted_H	0.763	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.083	0.000
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.014
predicted_R	0.437	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.334	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.318	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.714	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	8.000	6.000	0.2581	0.4250	0.3548	0.2581	0.0000	0.0323	0.2581	0.1935
season	0.60	42	-	155.000	35.000	8.000	1.000	15.000	19.000	18.000	28.000	0.2258	0.3107	0.2968	0.2258	0.0065	0.0968	0.1161	0.1807

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5550
predicted_AVG	0.2154
predicted_BB	0.4790
predicted_H	0.7660
predicted_HBP	0.0830
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.3191
predicted_R	0.4440
predicted_RBI	0.2600
predicted_SLG	0.2902
predicted_SO	0.7780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1770	0.1847	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.5550	3.6350	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2154	0.2323	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.4790	0.4494	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.7660	0.7743	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0830	0.0830	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0280	0.0707	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3191	0.3107	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.4440	0.4487	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.2600	0.3429	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2902	0.3523	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7780	0.7122	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	807712
playerID	807712
playerName	Luke Keaschall
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Brooks Lee (686797) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 39

All-history rows before 20260515: 39

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2552

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	1.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.718	5.000	-0.718	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.200	-0.255	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.949	1.000	-0.949	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.200	-0.062	0.050
predicted_R	0.487	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.487	0.000	-0.487	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.564	0.000	-0.564	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.400	-0.400	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.718	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.718	0.000	1.282	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.718	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.282	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.487	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.718	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.761	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.291	0.009
predicted_H	0.864	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.002
predicted_R	0.483	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.451	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.706	-0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.761	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.290	-0.001
predicted_H	0.851	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.098	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.021
predicted_R	0.471	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.440	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.707	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1500	0.2273	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.3750	0.2750	0.0000	0.1500	0.0750	0.1250
season	0.60	39	-	145.000	37.000	6.000	5.000	22.000	19.000	11.000	28.000	0.2552	0.3121	0.4000	0.2552	0.0345	0.1517	0.0759	0.1931

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2050
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8250
predicted_AVG	0.2390
predicted_BB	0.3040
predicted_H	0.9140
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.2990
predicted_R	0.4770
predicted_RBI	0.4970
predicted_SLG	0.3613
predicted_SO	0.6870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.2050	0.1746	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7180	3.8250	3.7611	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2390	0.2420	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2820	0.3040	0.2909	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9140	0.8639	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0860	0.1003	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2990	0.3026	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4870	0.4770	0.4830	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4970	0.4510	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3613	0.3814	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7180	0.6870	0.7055	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	686797
playerID	686797
playerName	Brooks Lee
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIN
teamID	17

Ryan Jeffers (680777) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 30

All-history rows before 20260515: 30

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2963

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	2.000	-0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_BB	0.633	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.633	2.000	0.367	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.067	0.000	-1.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.403	0.500	-0.153	-0.250
predicted_R	0.767	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.767	1.000	-0.767	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.537	0.000	-0.537	0.000
predicted_SO	0.767	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.767	0.000	1.233	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.633	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.767	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.767	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.038
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.608	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.022
predicted_BB	0.631	-0.002
predicted_H	0.919	0.109
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.160	0.050
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.038
predicted_R	0.772	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.541	0.131
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.076
predicted_SO	0.778	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.608	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.630	-0.001
predicted_H	0.906	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.157	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.019
predicted_R	0.752	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.527	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.463	-0.009
predicted_SO	0.780	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	0.3529	0.5000	0.8824	0.3529	0.1177	0.2353	0.2941	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	9.000	6.000	8.000	0.3243	0.4091	0.6757	0.3243	0.0811	0.1892	0.1622	0.2162
season	0.60	30	-	108.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	25.000	23.000	19.000	23.000	0.2963	0.4031	0.5370	0.2963	0.0556	0.2315	0.1759	0.2130

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2970
predicted_3B	0.0190
predicted_AB	3.6210
predicted_AVG	0.3001
predicted_BB	0.6290
predicted_H	1.0870
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.2370
predicted_OBP	0.4014
predicted_R	0.7800
predicted_RBI	0.7420
predicted_SLG	0.5887
predicted_SO	0.7950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2970	0.2383	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0190	0.0275	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.6210	3.6083	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3001	0.2661	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6330	0.6290	0.6314	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	1.0870	0.9194	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2370	0.1601	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.4014	0.3431	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7670	0.7800	0.7721	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.7420	0.5411	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5887	0.4715	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7670	0.7950	0.7781	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680777
playerID	680777
playerName	Ryan Jeffers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Joe Ryan (657746) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 9

All-history rows before 20260515: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.444	3.000	0.556	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.889	1.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	3.667	2.000	-1.667	0.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.911	6.000	0.289	-0.800
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	5.000	5.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.100	8.000	18.000	7.000	23.000	2.000	3.0857	1.0714	0.3429	0.7714	0.3000	0.9857	0.0857
last_10	0.35	9	44.200	17.000	33.000	13.000	45.000	3.000	3.4254	1.0299	0.3806	0.7388	0.2910	1.0075	0.0672
season	0.20	9	44.200	17.000	33.000	13.000	45.000	3.000	3.4254	1.0299	0.3806	0.7388	0.2910	1.0075	0.0672

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6690
predicted_ER	2.0230
predicted_ERA	3.5660
predicted_H	4.2040
predicted_HR	0.4930
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.0120
predicted_WHIP	1.1501

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.6690	1.8348	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0230	2.0115	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5660	3.5660	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.2040	3.1001	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4930	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.0000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	5.0120	6.0077	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1501	1.1501	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	7
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.43
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	107
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	657746
playerID	657746
playerName	Joe Ryan
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 17

All-history rows before 20260515: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.647	3.000	-0.647	-3.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.529	0.000	0.471	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.953	1.200	0.147	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	0.059	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	2.5714	1.4286	0.2857	0.7143	0.7143	0.5714
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	6.000	10.000	7.000	11.000	4.7647	1.5000	0.5294	0.8823	0.6177	0.9706
season	0.20	17	19.000	9.000	17.000	11.000	16.000	4.2632	1.4737	0.4737	0.8947	0.5789	0.8421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6250
predicted_ER	0.5540
predicted_ERA	3.9728
predicted_H	1.1080
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0990
predicted_WHIP	1.3817

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6250	0.2559	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5540	0.8174	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9728	3.9728	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1080	0.4536	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0920	0.6283	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0990	1.0405	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3817	1.3817	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Justin Topa (623437) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 22

All-history rows before 20260515: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	1.000	1.591	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.091	1.000	1.909	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.668	1.200	0.332	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.682	2.000	0.318	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	9.000	10.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	16.2000	2.8000	1.8000	2.0000	0.8000	0.8000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	10.000	13.000	5.000	10.000	3.000	10.0000	2.0000	1.1111	1.4444	0.5556	1.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	22	18.200	14.000	24.000	9.000	15.000	4.000	6.7500	1.7679	0.7500	1.2857	0.4821	0.8036	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4960
predicted_ER	0.8420
predicted_ERA	7.5810
predicted_H	1.2470
predicted_HR	0.2570
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9380
predicted_WHIP	1.7437

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4960	1.3871	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.8420	0.9356	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.5810	7.5810	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.2470	2.2856	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2570	0.1047	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9380	0.9747	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7437	1.7437	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.13
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	35
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	623437
playerID	623437
playerName	Justin Topa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taylor Rogers (573124) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 17

All-history rows before 20260515: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.176	0.000	-1.176	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.782	1.000	0.218	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.765	1.000	-0.765	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	8.000	0.000	6.000	1.3500	1.2000	0.1500	1.2000	0.0000	0.9000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	13.000	3.000	8.000	2.3824	1.4118	0.2647	1.1471	0.2647	0.7059
season	0.20	16	16.100	5.000	18.000	5.000	13.000	2.7551	1.4082	0.3061	1.1020	0.3061	0.7959

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3090
predicted_ER	0.3920
predicted_ERA	3.3282
predicted_H	1.0880
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9540
predicted_WHIP	1.3187

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3090	0.1217	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3920	0.1544	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3282	3.3282	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0880	0.4285	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0830	0.0327	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9540	0.3758	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3187	1.3187	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.41
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	573124
playerID	573124
playerName	Taylor Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

20260515_NYY@NYM

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.534149, "home_win_probability": 0.465851, "away_win_probability": 0.534149, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 NYM", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 NYM", "confidence": 0.534149, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 NYM", "winner": "NYY"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "NYY 5 - 2 NYM", "winner": "NYY"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	NYY 4 - 2 NYM	NYY	0.534	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	NYY 5 - 2 NYM	NYY	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away NYY	4-6	0.400	4.30	3.90	4	1L	average	average
Home NYM	7-3	0.700	4.80	3	18	3W	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away NYY	27-17	0.614	69	1.568	True
Home NYM	18-25	0.419	-17	-0.395	True
Signal	-	-	-1.964	-2.256	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target NYY	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target NYM	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Player finalized NYY	32	9	4	0	4	5	9
Player finalized NYM	33	9	1	0	1	2	9
Player model fractional NYY	30.52	6.56	3.95	0.99	3.59	4.59	8.95
Player model fractional NYM	31.38	6.73	4.30	0.88	3.39	3.65	7.59
Simulation box NYY	30	5	5	1	5	6	8
Simulation box NYM	30	3	2	2	2	4	10

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away NYY	Starter	Cam Schlittler	6	1	6	1	4	2.06	1.01	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	David Bednar	1	1	1	1	0	3.75	1.11	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	Fernando Cruz	1	0	1	0	0	3.46	1.32	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	Tim Hill	1	0	2	0	0	2.69	1.23	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	Brent Headrick	0	0	0	1	0	3.42	1.18	True
Home NYM	Starter	Clay Holmes	6	2	5	2	3	2.85	1.11	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Brooks Raley	1	0	1	0	0	2.59	1.20	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Devin Williams	1	2	0	2	0	3.76	1.14	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Luke Weaver	1	1	2	1	3	3.06	1.28	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: NYY

Ben Rice (700250) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 35

All-history rows before 20260515: 35

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2969

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.657	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.657	3.000	1.343	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.000	-0.297	0.000
predicted_BB	0.686	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.686	1.000	-0.686	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.086	0.000	-1.086	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.409	0.250	-0.409	-0.250
predicted_R	0.829	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.829	0.000	-0.829	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.771	0.000	-0.771	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.648	0.000	-0.648	0.000
predicted_SO	1.114	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.114	2.000	0.886	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.657	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.686	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.829	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.114	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.699	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.007
predicted_BB	0.623	-0.063
predicted_H	0.881	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.178	0.068
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.019
predicted_R	0.746	-0.083
predicted_RBI	0.501	0.091
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.055
predicted_SO	1.108	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.699	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.631	0.008
predicted_H	0.886	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.026
predicted_R	0.757	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.509	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.447	-0.003
predicted_SO	1.094	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.1500	0.2273	0.3000	0.1500	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	10.000	0.2895	0.3571	0.5526	0.2895	0.0790	0.1579	0.1053	0.2632
season	0.60	35	-	128.000	38.000	9.000	12.000	27.000	29.000	24.000	39.000	0.2969	0.4091	0.6484	0.2969	0.0938	0.2109	0.1875	0.3047

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7610
predicted_AVG	0.2624
predicted_BB	0.5290
predicted_H	0.9870
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.2780
predicted_OBP	0.3531
predicted_R	0.6220
predicted_RBI	0.6370
predicted_SLG	0.5327
predicted_SO	1.1000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.1780	0.2252	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6570	3.7610	3.6988	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2624	0.2514	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6860	0.5290	0.6228	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9870	0.8812	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2780	0.1776	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3531	0.3244	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8290	0.6220	0.7457	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.6370	0.5013	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5327	0.4504	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1140	1.1000	1.1084	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	700250
playerID	700250
playerName	Ben Rice
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Trent Grisham (663757) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 36

All-history rows before 20260515: 36

System season_avg: 0.1720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1719

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1720

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.556	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	2.000	0.444	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.172	0.000	0.078	0.250
predicted_BB	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.611	0.000	0.389	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.500	0.088	-0.100
predicted_R	0.639	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.639	0.000	0.361	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.172	0.500
predicted_SO	0.694	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.694	0.000	-0.694	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.750	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.639	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.694	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.023	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.530	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.740	-0.010
predicted_H	0.751	-0.079
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.118	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.006
predicted_R	0.617	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.496	0.076
predicted_SLG	0.376	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.685	-0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.530	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.750	0.010
predicted_H	0.755	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.119	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.041
predicted_R	0.626	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.504	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.375	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.676	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	0.1333	0.3500	0.3333	0.1333	0.0667	0.2000	0.3333	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	0.2000	0.3256	0.3714	0.2000	0.0286	0.2286	0.2000	0.1429
season	0.60	36	-	128.000	22.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	21.000	23.000	27.000	25.000	0.1719	0.3121	0.3281	0.1719	0.0312	0.1641	0.2109	0.1953

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.4920
predicted_AVG	0.1817
predicted_BB	0.7260
predicted_H	0.6340
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_OBP	0.3197
predicted_R	0.5840
predicted_RBI	0.6090
predicted_SLG	0.3469
predicted_SO	0.6710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1590	0.1638	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0160	0.0232	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5560	3.4920	3.5302	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1817	0.2189	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7500	0.7260	0.7403	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.6340	0.7510	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1290	0.1177	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3197	0.3109	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6390	0.5840	0.6168	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.6090	0.4962	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3469	0.3756	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6940	0.6710	0.6847	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.172

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	663757
playerID	663757
playerName	Trent Grisham
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 44

All-history rows before 20260515: 44

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2675

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.159	0.000	-0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.568	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.568	4.000	-1.568	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.773	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.773	0.000	0.227	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.955	0.000	-0.955	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.404	0.000	-0.154	0.250
predicted_R	0.818	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.818	0.000	0.182	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.682	0.000	0.318	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.618	0.000	-0.618	0.000
predicted_SO	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	1.000	-0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.568	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.773	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.818	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.557	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.008
predicted_BB	0.784	0.011
predicted_H	0.854	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.179	0.079
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.039
predicted_R	0.754	-0.064
predicted_RBI	0.475	0.065
predicted_SLG	0.463	0.068
predicted_SO	1.231	-0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.557	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.794	0.010
predicted_H	0.859	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.181	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.036
predicted_R	0.765	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.482	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.442	-0.022
predicted_SO	1.214	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	0.2500	0.4545	0.5000	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.3750	0.3750
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	8.000	13.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.5833	0.2778	0.0833	0.1944	0.2222	0.3611
season	0.60	44	-	157.000	42.000	7.000	16.000	30.000	36.000	34.000	55.000	0.2675	0.4041	0.6178	0.2675	0.1019	0.1911	0.2166	0.3503

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5410
predicted_AVG	0.2631
predicted_BB	0.8000
predicted_H	0.9310
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.2920
predicted_OBP	0.4004
predicted_R	0.6620
predicted_RBI	0.5680
predicted_SLG	0.5614
predicted_SO	1.2030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1590	0.1770	0.1664	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5680	3.5410	3.5569	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2631	0.2518	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7730	0.8000	0.7841	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9310	0.8538	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.2920	0.1788	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.4004	0.3442	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8180	0.6620	0.7539	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5680	0.4749	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5614	0.4633	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.2030	1.2307	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYY
teamID	19

Anthony Volpe (683011) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 1

All-history rows before 20260515: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2438

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.133	0.133
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.047	0.047
predicted_H	0.641	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.005
predicted_R	0.081	0.081
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.977	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.133	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.047	0.001
predicted_H	0.645	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.086	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.218	-0.082
predicted_R	0.083	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.336	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.299	-0.089
predicted_SO	0.964	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333
season	0.60	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.7240
predicted_AVG	0.2217
predicted_BB	0.2530
predicted_H	0.8250
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_OBP	0.2776
predicted_R	0.4410
predicted_RBI	0.4210
predicted_SLG	0.3586
predicted_SO	0.8760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1600	0.0295	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.7240	3.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2217	0.2399	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2530	0.0466	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.8250	0.6414	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1080	0.0852	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2776	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4410	0.0812	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.4210	0.3304	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3586	0.3883	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8760	0.9772	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	683011
playerID	683011
playerName	Anthony Volpe
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2697

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.619	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.619	4.000	-0.619	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_BB	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	0.000	-0.976	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.000	-0.127	0.250
predicted_R	0.619	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.619	0.000	-0.619	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_SO	0.548	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.548	0.000	0.452	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	3.619	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.619	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.548	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.072	0.001
predicted_AB	3.584	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.683	0.016
predicted_H	0.814	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.024
predicted_R	0.588	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.475	0.075
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.001
predicted_SO	0.535	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.072	0.000
predicted_AB	3.584	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.692	0.009
predicted_H	0.819	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.091	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.025
predicted_R	0.597	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.482	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.405	0.009
predicted_SO	0.528	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	0.1250	0.3333	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0625	0.3125	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	9.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	0.2647	0.3953	0.4412	0.2647	0.0000	0.2647	0.2353	0.0882
season	0.60	42	-	152.000	41.000	10.000	3.000	5.000	27.000	26.000	28.000	23.000	0.2697	0.3770	0.4737	0.2697	0.0329	0.1776	0.1842	0.1513

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0740
predicted_AB	3.5340
predicted_AVG	0.2403
predicted_BB	0.7060
predicted_H	0.8490
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_OBP	0.3626
predicted_R	0.5420
predicted_RBI	0.5840
predicted_SLG	0.3970
predicted_SO	0.5170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.1790	0.2139	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.0740	0.0722	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6190	3.5340	3.5843	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2403	0.2425	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.7060	0.6829	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8490	0.8141	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0760	0.0902	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3626	0.3285	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6190	0.5420	0.5875	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.5840	0.4752	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3970	0.3958	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5480	0.5170	0.5353	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Spencer Jones (682987) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 5

All-history rows before 20260515: 5

System season_avg: 0.0830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0833

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.400	1.000	0.600	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.083	0.000	0.583	0.667
predicted_BB	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	2.000	0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.200	0.000	1.800	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.667	0.483	0.083
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	2.800	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	2.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.083	0.000	2.250	2.333
predicted_SO	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	0.000	-0.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.625	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.027
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.712	0.212
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.579	-0.046
predicted_H	0.542	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.003
predicted_R	0.074	0.074
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.027
predicted_SO	1.200	-0.050

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.712	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.587	0.008
predicted_H	0.545	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.071	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.041
predicted_R	0.075	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.292	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.291	-0.077
predicted_SO	1.184	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.0833	0.2667	0.0833	0.0833	0.0833	0.2500	0.5000
last_10	0.20	5	-	12.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.0833	0.2667	0.0833	0.0833	0.0833	0.2500	0.5000
season	0.60	5	-	12.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.0833	0.2667	0.0833	0.0833	0.0833	0.2500	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.3310
predicted_AVG	0.1903
predicted_BB	0.4440
predicted_H	0.6340
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.2925
predicted_R	0.2890
predicted_RBI	0.3690
predicted_SLG	0.2908
predicted_SO	1.0550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1050	0.0268	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.3310	2.7119	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1903	0.2303	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6250	0.4440	0.5788	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6340	0.5416	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0710	0.0703	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2925	0.3018	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.2890	0.0737	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3690	0.2878	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2908	0.3684	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.0550	1.2003	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	1
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.083

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	682987
playerID	682987
playerName	Spencer Jones
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ryan McMahon (641857) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 30

All-history rows before 20260515: 30

System season_avg: 0.1700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1700

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.170	0.000	0.163	0.333
predicted_BB	0.233	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	0.000	0.767	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.567	0.000	0.433	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.224	0.000	0.276	0.500
predicted_R	0.267	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.000	0.083	0.333
predicted_SO	1.167	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	2.000	-1.167	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.267	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.392	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.209	-0.024
predicted_H	0.656	-0.054
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.083	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.040
predicted_R	0.276	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.338	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.054
predicted_SO	1.155	-0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.392	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.212	0.003
predicted_H	0.660	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.084	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.242	-0.023
predicted_R	0.281	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.343	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.293	-0.048
predicted_SO	1.139	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4118
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	11.000	0.1944	0.1944	0.3333	0.1944	0.0278	0.1111	0.0000	0.3056
season	0.60	30	-	100.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	35.000	0.1700	0.2243	0.2500	0.1700	0.0200	0.0900	0.0700	0.3500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4870
predicted_AVG	0.1634
predicted_BB	0.1720
predicted_H	0.5700
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.2024
predicted_R	0.2910
predicted_RBI	0.3030
predicted_SLG	0.2556
predicted_SO	1.1350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0990	0.0794	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.4870	3.3924	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1634	0.2129	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.1720	0.2095	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.5700	0.6560	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0720	0.0831	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2024	0.2654	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2670	0.2910	0.2763	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3030	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2556	0.3412	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.1350	1.1546	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	641857
playerID	641857
playerName	Ryan McMahon
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Austin Wells (669224) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 32

All-history rows before 20260515: 32

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.094	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.094	4.000	-0.094	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.250	-0.182	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.562	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.562	1.000	-0.562	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.250	-0.055	0.000
predicted_R	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.344	1.000	-0.344	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.283	0.250	-0.283	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.844	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.844	2.000	0.156	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.094	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.562	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.344	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.844	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.169	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.492	-0.070
predicted_H	0.610	-0.000
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.015
predicted_R	0.362	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.258	-0.052
predicted_SLG	0.350	-0.045
predicted_SO	0.905	0.061

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.169	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.499	0.007
predicted_H	0.613	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.083	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.013
predicted_R	0.368	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.262	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.285	-0.065
predicted_SO	0.893	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4375
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.2727	0.1818	0.0303	0.0303	0.0909	0.3636
season	0.60	32	-	99.000	18.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	18.000	27.000	0.1818	0.3051	0.2828	0.1818	0.0303	0.0505	0.1818	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2860
predicted_AVG	0.1853
predicted_BB	0.3830
predicted_H	0.6090
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.2677
predicted_R	0.3900
predicted_RBI	0.1780
predicted_SLG	0.2787
predicted_SO	0.9990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0310	0.0470	0.0373	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0940	3.2860	3.1690	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1853	0.2211	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5620	0.3830	0.4921	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6090	0.6096	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0850	0.0820	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2677	0.2904	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3440	0.3900	0.3620	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.1780	0.2584	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2787	0.3496	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8440	0.9990	0.9046	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669224
playerID	669224
playerName	Austin Wells
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (665862) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2067

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2070

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	1.000	-0.175	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	3.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.333	0.043	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.775	1.000	0.225	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.333	-0.036	-0.083
predicted_R	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.425	0.000	-0.425	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.667	-0.083	-0.417
predicted_SO	1.225	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.225	1.000	-0.225	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.425	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.225	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.739	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.372	-0.028
predicted_H	0.775	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.094	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.015
predicted_R	0.397	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.373	-0.027
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.026
predicted_SO	1.270	0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.739	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.377	0.005
predicted_H	0.780	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.096	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.009
predicted_R	0.404	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.379	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.032
predicted_SO	1.253	-0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	10.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.2778	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.5556
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	14.000	0.1892	0.2439	0.3243	0.1892	0.0270	0.0811	0.0811	0.3784
season	0.60	40	-	150.000	31.000	7.000	4.000	14.000	17.000	16.000	49.000	0.2067	0.2857	0.3333	0.2067	0.0267	0.0933	0.1067	0.3267

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2190
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7230
predicted_AVG	0.2026
predicted_BB	0.3310
predicted_H	0.7540
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.2688
predicted_R	0.3570
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.3316
predicted_SO	1.3360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.2190	0.1929	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7230	3.7390	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2026	0.2272	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3310	0.3720	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.7540	0.7754	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0860	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2688	0.2903	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4250	0.3570	0.3974	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3330	0.3728	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3316	0.3693	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2250	1.3360	1.2700	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	665862
playerID	665862
playerName	Jazz Chisholm Jr.
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cam Schlittler (693645) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 9

All-history rows before 20260515: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.889	0.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	3.778	2.000	-2.778	-1.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.822	6.000	0.178	0.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	6.556	6.000	-0.556	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.200	2.000	19.000	8.000	29.000	1.000	0.5684	0.8526	0.0632	0.6000	0.2526	0.9158	0.0316
last_10	0.35	9	53.100	8.000	34.000	9.000	59.000	1.000	1.3500	0.8062	0.1500	0.6375	0.1688	1.1062	0.0187
season	0.20	9	53.100	8.000	34.000	9.000	59.000	1.000	1.3500	0.8062	0.1500	0.6375	0.1688	1.1062	0.0187

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7040
predicted_ER	1.4010
predicted_ERA	2.0566
predicted_H	4.4790
predicted_HR	0.3880
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	5.9990
predicted_WHIP	1.0083

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.7040	2.8540	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.4010	1.2001	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0566	2.0566	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	4.4790	2.7365	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.3880	0.6945	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.9990	5.4986	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0083	1.0083	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	4
SO	6
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	107

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.35
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	68
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	693645
playerID	693645
playerName	Cam Schlittler
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.056	0.000	-0.056	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.922	1.000	0.078	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.222	1.000	-0.222	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	0.000	8.000	1.000	3.3750	0.5625	0.3750	0.5625	0.0000	1.5000	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	1.000	2.6129	0.8710	0.2903	0.7742	0.0968	1.1613	0.0968
season	0.20	18	18.000	7.000	19.000	5.000	22.000	1.000	3.5000	1.3333	0.3889	1.0556	0.2778	1.2222	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2600
predicted_ER	0.4170
predicted_ERA	3.7525
predicted_H	0.8540
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1120
predicted_WHIP	1.1136

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2600	0.1050	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4170	0.7646	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7525	3.7525	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8540	0.9410	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1290	0.6483	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1120	1.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1136	1.1136	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.565	1.100	0.435	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	-0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.8000	0.4000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	9.000	4.000	14.000	2.000	2.8929	1.3929	0.3214	0.9643	0.4286	1.5000	0.2143
season	0.20	20	16.200	5.000	13.000	11.000	24.000	2.000	2.7000	1.4400	0.3000	0.7800	0.6600	1.4400	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4030
predicted_ER	0.3750
predicted_ERA	3.4650
predicted_H	0.8810
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0520
predicted_WHIP	1.3185

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4030	0.1596	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3750	0.1485	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4650	3.4650	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8810	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1140	0.0451	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0520	1.6246	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3185	1.3185	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Tim Hill (657612) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.725	0.200	0.275	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.350	0.000	1.650	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2500	0.0000	1.2500	0.0000	0.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.1250	1.1250	0.1250	0.8750	0.2500	0.5000	0.1250
season	0.20	20	18.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.0000	0.7778	0.1111	0.6667	0.1111	0.3889	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_ER	0.2660
predicted_ERA	2.6928
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6320
predicted_WHIP	1.2334

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2380	0.0961	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2660	0.1074	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6928	2.6928	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8580	0.3465	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0870	0.0351	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6320	1.4476	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2334	1.2334	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	657612
playerID	657612
playerName	Tim Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Brent Headrick (687396) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 22

All-history rows before 20260515: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.227	1.000	-0.227	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.909	2.000	0.091	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.805	0.200	-0.805	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.045	1.000	-1.045	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	2.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	2.8421	0.9474	0.3158	0.6316	0.3158	1.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	8.000	3.000	11.000	2.000	2.3824	0.9706	0.2647	0.7059	0.2647	0.9706	0.1765
season	0.20	22	21.200	5.000	20.000	8.000	23.000	2.000	2.0769	1.2923	0.2308	0.9231	0.3692	1.0615	0.0923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2470
predicted_ER	0.2710
predicted_ERA	3.4240
predicted_H	0.5950
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7120
predicted_WHIP	1.1835

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2470	0.1045	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2710	0.1147	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4240	3.4240	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5950	0.8287	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1230	0.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7120	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1835	1.1835	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	687396
playerID	687396
playerName	Brent Headrick
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Home Team: NYM

Carson Benge (701807) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 35

All-history rows before 20260515: 35

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2400

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	5.000	-0.571	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.400	-0.240	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.314	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.314	0.000	0.686	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	2.000	-0.857	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.400	-0.051	-0.150
predicted_R	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.486	1.000	-0.486	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.352	0.400	-0.352	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.771	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	0.000	0.229	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.314	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.656	0.085
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.013
predicted_BB	0.300	-0.014
predicted_H	0.924	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.099	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.010
predicted_R	0.514	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.391	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.751	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.656	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.295	-0.005
predicted_H	0.885	-0.039
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.093	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.016
predicted_R	0.478	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.406	-0.031
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.765	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.3636	0.3636	0.3636	0.3636	0.0000	0.0909	0.0000	0.1364
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	0.3421	0.4048	0.5000	0.3421	0.0263	0.1842	0.1053	0.1316
season	0.60	35	-	125.000	30.000	5.000	3.000	13.000	17.000	11.000	27.000	0.2400	0.3015	0.3520	0.2400	0.0240	0.1040	0.0880	0.2160

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7850
predicted_AVG	0.2777
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_H	1.0510
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_OBP	0.3293
predicted_R	0.5570
predicted_RBI	0.4490
predicted_SLG	0.3858
predicted_SO	0.7220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1560	0.1482	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.7850	3.6560	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2777	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3140	0.2800	0.3005	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.0510	0.9238	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0830	0.0993	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3293	0.3147	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.5570	0.5142	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4490	0.4375	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3858	0.3913	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.7220	0.7515	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	701807
playerID	701807
playerName	Carson Benge
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

A.J. Ewing (805999) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 3

All-history rows before 20260515: 3

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.500	-0.333	-0.500
predicted_BB	1.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.333	0.000	-0.333	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.333	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.538	0.500	-0.205	-0.167
predicted_R	1.333	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	1.333	1.000	-1.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.889	1.250	-0.889	-1.250
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.333	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	1.333	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	1.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.283	-0.050
predicted_AB	3.137	0.137
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.007
predicted_BB	1.168	-0.165
predicted_H	0.689	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.109	0.029
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.017
predicted_R	1.202	-0.131
predicted_RBI	0.398	0.088
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.037
predicted_SO	0.980	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.283	0.000
predicted_AB	3.137	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.040
predicted_BB	1.148	-0.020
predicted_H	0.660	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.103	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.422	0.100
predicted_R	1.117	-0.085
predicted_RBI	0.370	-0.028
predicted_SLG	0.498	0.067
predicted_SO	0.997	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	9.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.3333	0.5385	0.8889	0.3333	0.1111	0.3333	0.4444	0.3333
last_10	0.20	3	-	9.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.3333	0.5385	0.8889	0.3333	0.1111	0.3333	0.4444	0.3333
season	0.60	3	-	9.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.3333	0.5385	0.8889	0.3333	0.1111	0.3333	0.4444	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1170
predicted_3B	0.1290
predicted_AB	3.5560
predicted_AVG	0.2709
predicted_BB	0.6630
predicted_H	0.9630
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1990
predicted_OBP	0.3759
predicted_R	0.8010
predicted_RBI	0.6670
predicted_SLG	0.5439
predicted_SO	0.9170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1170	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.3330	0.1290	0.2828	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.5560	3.1367	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2709	0.2506	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.3330	0.6630	1.1682	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.9630	0.6893	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1990	0.1093	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3759	0.3224	model_form_blend
predicted_R	1.3330	0.8010	1.2022	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.6670	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5439	0.4316	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9170	0.9796	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	805999
playerID	805999
playerName	A.J. Ewing
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 27

All-history rows before 20260515: 27

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2621

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.815	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.815	5.000	-0.815	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.400	0.071	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.185	1.000	0.815	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.400	0.147	0.100
predicted_R	0.481	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.481	2.000	0.519	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.481	2.000	0.519	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.466	1.000	0.867	0.333
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.815	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.481	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.509	-0.047
predicted_H	0.872	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.026
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.002
predicted_R	0.491	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.464	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.009
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.500	-0.009
predicted_H	0.835	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.128	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.002
predicted_R	0.456	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.431	-0.033
predicted_SLG	0.373	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.679	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.815

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.1538	0.2093	0.3590	0.1538	0.0513	0.1282	0.0769	0.1795
season	0.60	27	-	103.000	27.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	13.000	15.000	18.000	0.2621	0.3529	0.4660	0.2621	0.0485	0.1262	0.1456	0.1748

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.8220
predicted_AVG	0.2329
predicted_BB	0.4360
predicted_H	0.8900
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1770
predicted_OBP	0.3097
predicted_R	0.5060
predicted_RBI	0.5020
predicted_SLG	0.4189
predicted_SO	0.6670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.1080	0.1324	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0360	0.0366	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8150	3.8220	3.8177	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2329	0.2397	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.4360	0.5091	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8900	0.8717	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1770	0.1362	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3097	0.3068	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4810	0.5060	0.4908	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5020	0.4642	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4189	0.4043	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6670	0.6670	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYM
teamID	18

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2184

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.047	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.047	4.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	-0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.302	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.302	1.000	-0.302	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.884	0.000	-0.884	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.200	-0.270	-0.200
predicted_R	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_SO	0.767	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.767	2.000	2.233	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.047	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.302	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.395	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.767	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.991	-0.056
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.354	0.052
predicted_H	0.839	-0.061
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.087	-0.033
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.014
predicted_R	0.365	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.437	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.061
predicted_SO	0.734	-0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.991	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.347	-0.006
predicted_H	0.804	-0.036
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.026
predicted_R	0.339	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.406	-0.031
predicted_SLG	0.289	-0.045
predicted_SO	0.747	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.047

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.1111	0.2727	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.1111	0.2222	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	0.1538	0.2500	0.1538	0.1538	0.0000	0.0769	0.1282	0.1026
season	0.60	43	-	174.000	38.000	5.000	2.000	18.000	17.000	13.000	33.000	0.2184	0.2698	0.2816	0.2184	0.0115	0.1035	0.0747	0.1897

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9100
predicted_AVG	0.1922
predicted_BB	0.4280
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.2718
predicted_R	0.3220
predicted_RBI	0.4030
predicted_SLG	0.2456
predicted_SO	0.6860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1160	0.0840	0.1029	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0470	3.9100	3.9908	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1922	0.2228	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3020	0.4280	0.3537	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.7520	0.8393	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.0400	0.0872	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2718	0.2914	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3950	0.3220	0.3651	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4030	0.4366	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2456	0.3338	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7670	0.6860	0.7338	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYM
teamID	18

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 32

All-history rows before 20260515: 32

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2348

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.594	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.594	4.000	-0.594	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.250	-0.235	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.219	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.219	0.000	0.781	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.844	1.000	-0.844	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	1.000	-0.188	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.250	-0.032	0.000
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.594	2.000	-0.594	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.435	1.000	-0.435	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.844	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.844	0.000	0.156	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.594	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.219	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.844	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.661	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.204	-0.015
predicted_H	0.831	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.067	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.043
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.007
predicted_R	0.462	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.498	0.098
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.019
predicted_SO	0.817	-0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.661	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.201	-0.004
predicted_H	0.795	-0.035
predicted_HBP	0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.134	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.040
predicted_R	0.429	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.463	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.046
predicted_SO	0.831	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4000	0.2500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.5750	0.2500	0.1000	0.2750	0.0250	0.1500
season	0.60	32	-	115.000	27.000	5.000	6.000	19.000	14.000	7.000	27.000	0.2348	0.2823	0.4348	0.2348	0.0522	0.1652	0.0609	0.2348

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1290
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7640
predicted_AVG	0.2415
predicted_BB	0.1810
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HBP	0.0670
predicted_HR	0.2090
predicted_OBP	0.2879
predicted_R	0.4990
predicted_RBI	0.6490
predicted_SLG	0.4439
predicted_SO	0.7740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1290	0.1454	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5940	3.7640	3.6608	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2415	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2190	0.1810	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9090	0.8307	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0670	0.0670	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.2090	0.1428	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2879	0.2983	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.4990	0.4620	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.6490	0.4979	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4439	0.4142	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8440	0.7740	0.8165	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2273

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.581	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.581	3.000	0.419	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.667	-0.227	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.279	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.279	1.000	-0.279	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.814	2.000	-0.814	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.070	1.000	-0.070	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.750	-0.286	-0.750
predicted_R	0.349	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.349	2.000	-0.349	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.326	1.000	-0.326	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.325	1.667	-0.325	-1.667
predicted_SO	0.767	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.767	0.000	1.233	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.581	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.279	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.349	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.767	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.597	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.296	0.017
predicted_H	0.800	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.109	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.003
predicted_R	0.399	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.362	-0.028
predicted_SLG	0.383	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.777	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.597	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.291	-0.005
predicted_H	0.766	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.030
predicted_R	0.371	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.336	-0.026
predicted_SLG	0.335	-0.049
predicted_SO	0.791	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	4.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3250	0.4444	0.2500	0.0556	0.0833	0.1111	0.2222
season	0.60	43	-	154.000	35.000	6.000	3.000	14.000	15.000	12.000	33.000	0.2273	0.2857	0.3247	0.2273	0.0195	0.0909	0.0779	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6200
predicted_AVG	0.2328
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.2978
predicted_R	0.4730
predicted_RBI	0.3210
predicted_SLG	0.3665
predicted_SO	0.7920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1400	0.1150	0.1299	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5810	3.6200	3.5968	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2328	0.2395	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2790	0.3210	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8430	0.7996	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1220	0.1089	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2978	0.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3490	0.4730	0.3993	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3210	0.3620	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3665	0.3834	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7670	0.7920	0.7771	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brett Baty (683146) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 33

All-history rows before 20260515: 33

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2328

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.515	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.515	3.000	0.485	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.333	0.017	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	0.182	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	1.000	-0.061	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.500	-0.041	-0.250
predicted_R	0.485	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.485	1.000	-0.485	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.424	2.000	-0.424	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.353	1.333	0.147	-0.833
predicted_SO	1.091	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.091	0.000	0.909	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.515	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.485	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.002
predicted_3B	0.025	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.547	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.285	0.012
predicted_H	0.795	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.501	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.403	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.391	-0.004
predicted_SO	1.075	-0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.547	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.280	-0.005
predicted_H	0.761	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.094	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.033
predicted_R	0.465	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.375	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.031
predicted_SO	1.094	0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	10.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.3824	0.2353	0.0294	0.0882	0.1471	0.2941
season	0.60	33	-	116.000	27.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	14.000	16.000	9.000	36.000	0.2328	0.2913	0.3534	0.2328	0.0172	0.1207	0.0776	0.3103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.5960
predicted_AVG	0.2402
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_H	0.8640
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.3049
predicted_R	0.5250
predicted_RBI	0.4390
predicted_SLG	0.3854
predicted_SO	1.0510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1880	0.1844	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0180	0.0253	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5150	3.5960	3.5469	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2402	0.2425	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.3030	0.2848	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8640	0.7949	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3049	0.3050	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4850	0.5250	0.5008	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4390	0.4033	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3854	0.3912	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	1.0510	1.0752	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	683146
playerID	683146
playerName	Brett Baty
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYM
teamID	18

MJ Melendez (669004) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 17

All-history rows before 20260515: 17

System season_avg: 0.2830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2826

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	2.706	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.706	1.000	1.294	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.283	0.000	-0.033	0.250
predicted_BB	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.500	-0.139	-0.250
predicted_R	0.353	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.353	1.000	0.647	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.522	0.000	0.478	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	2.706	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.353	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.066	0.007
predicted_AB	2.809	0.103
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.003
predicted_BB	0.432	0.020
predicted_H	0.634	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.019
predicted_R	0.371	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.018
predicted_SO	0.977	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.066	0.000
predicted_AB	2.809	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.424	-0.007
predicted_H	0.607	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.051	0.000
predicted_HR	0.076	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.005
predicted_R	0.345	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.289	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.400	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.994	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.1667	0.3750	0.3333	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.3333	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	23.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	0.2609	0.4138	0.4783	0.2609	0.0435	0.1739	0.2174	0.3478
season	0.60	17	-	46.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	7.000	17.000	0.2826	0.3889	0.5217	0.2826	0.0435	0.1304	0.1522	0.3696

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1260
predicted_3B	0.0780
predicted_AB	3.0040
predicted_AVG	0.2511
predicted_BB	0.4690
predicted_H	0.7540
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.3605
predicted_R	0.4060
predicted_RBI	0.3520
predicted_SLG	0.4465
predicted_SO	0.9330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1260	0.1587	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0780	0.0656	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7060	3.0040	2.8090	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2511	0.2465	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.4690	0.4317	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7540	0.6336	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.1010	0.0807	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3605	0.3242	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3530	0.4060	0.3713	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3520	0.3114	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4465	0.4128	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9330	0.9768	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.283

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	669004
playerID	669004
playerName	MJ Melendez
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luis Torrens (620443) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 14

All-history rows before 20260515: 14

System season_avg: 0.1860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1860

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.071	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.071	3.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.186	0.333	-0.186	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.239	0.500	-0.239	-0.500
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.256	0.333	-0.256	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.643	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.643	1.000	0.357	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.071	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.643	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.169	0.098
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.165	0.022
predicted_H	0.645	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.078	-
predicted_HR	0.067	-0.013
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.008
predicted_R	0.326	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.339	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.373	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.679	0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.169	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.041
predicted_BB	0.162	-0.003
predicted_H	0.618	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.078	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.234	-0.063
predicted_R	0.302	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.315	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.047
predicted_SO	0.691	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.3750	0.2500	0.1875	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.3000	0.2000	0.1000	0.0667	0.2333
season	0.60	14	-	43.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.1860	0.2391	0.2558	0.1860	0.0930	0.0465	0.2093

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2400
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3640
predicted_AVG	0.2183
predicted_BB	0.2090
predicted_H	0.7340
predicted_HBP	0.0780
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2807
predicted_R	0.4040
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.3303
predicted_SO	0.7520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.2400	0.2227	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0710	3.3640	3.1690	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2183	0.2354	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.2090	0.1651	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7340	0.6448	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0780	0.0780	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0420	0.0673	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2807	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.4040	0.3255	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3960	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3303	0.3734	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6430	0.7520	0.6795	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.186

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	620443
playerID	620443
playerName	Luis Torrens
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYM
teamID	18

Clay Holmes (605280) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.250	2.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	4.125	5.000	-2.125	-3.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.837	5.200	0.163	0.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	4.625	6.000	0.375	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.100	7.000	21.000	8.000	25.000	2.000	2.0769	0.9560	0.2308	0.6923	0.2637	0.8242	0.0659
last_10	0.35	8	48.100	10.000	33.000	16.000	37.000	3.000	1.8621	1.0138	0.2069	0.6828	0.3310	0.7655	0.0621
season	0.20	8	48.100	10.000	33.000	16.000	37.000	3.000	1.8621	1.0138	0.2069	0.6828	0.3310	0.7655	0.0621

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9330
predicted_ER	1.9000
predicted_ERA	2.8499
predicted_H	4.7120
predicted_HR	0.5370
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	5.1880
predicted_WHIP	1.1075

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.9330	2.4798	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.9000	1.9512	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8499	2.8499	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.7120	3.3221	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5370	0.7743	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.1880	5.0917	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1075	1.1075	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	5
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	106

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.86
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	103
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	64
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	605280
playerID	605280
playerName	Clay Holmes
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.828	1.000	0.172	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.111	1.000	-0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	1.1250	0.0000	0.7500	0.3750	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	0.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9310	0.0000	0.6207	0.3103	1.1379	0.0000
season	0.20	18	17.000	2.000	10.000	6.000	20.000	1.000	1.0588	0.9412	0.1177	0.5882	0.3529	1.1765	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3680
predicted_ER	0.2880
predicted_ERA	2.5888
predicted_H	0.8320
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0320
predicted_WHIP	1.1994

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3680	0.1464	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2880	0.1146	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5888	2.5888	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8320	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0820	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0320	1.0127	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1994	1.1994	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.06
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 16

All-history rows before 20260515: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.938	0.000	1.062	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.781	1.000	0.219	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.375	1.000	-1.375	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000	0.2143	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	6.000	9.000	2.000	15.000	1.000	6.2308	1.2692	0.6923	1.0385	0.2308	1.7308	0.1154
season	0.20	15	13.200	6.000	14.000	4.000	22.000	1.000	3.9512	1.3171	0.4390	1.0244	0.2927	1.6098	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_ER	0.4180
predicted_ERA	3.7646
predicted_H	0.8090
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1860
predicted_WHIP	1.1386

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3300	0.1242	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4180	1.4047	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7646	3.7646	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8090	1.5518	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1030	0.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1860	0.4463	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1386	1.1386	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.27
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 17

All-history rows before 20260515: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	1.000	2.588	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.924	1.000	0.076	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3125	0.0000	0.7500	0.5625	1.6875	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	4.000	13.000	1.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	1.2188	0.0938
season	0.20	17	17.100	8.000	14.000	7.000	17.000	2.000	4.1538	1.2115	0.4615	0.8077	0.4038	0.9808	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4160
predicted_ER	0.3400
predicted_ERA	3.0637
predicted_H	0.8670
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1320
predicted_WHIP	1.2822

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.4160	1.9666	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3400	0.7361	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0637	3.0637	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8670	0.9468	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1320	1.6529	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2822	1.2822	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	2
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

20260515_PHI@PIT

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.525473, "home_win_probability": 0.525473, "away_win_probability": 0.47452700000000003, "predicted_score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 PIT", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 PIT", "confidence": 0.525473, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	PHI 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	0.525	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	PHI 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away PHI	7-3	0.700	4.50	3.30	12	1W	average	strong
Home PIT	6-4	0.600	4.10	3.90	2	1W	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away PHI	21-23	0.477	-31	-0.705	True
Home PIT	24-20	0.545	32	0.727	True
Signal	-	-	1.432	1.534	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target PHI	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target PIT	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized PHI	33	9	4	0	2	2	9
Player finalized PIT	34	9	5	0	4	4	8
Player model fractional PHI	32.74	7.48	3.88	1.12	3.78	2.66	7.25
Player model fractional PIT	33.42	7.81	4.53	1.01	4.28	4.81	7.87
Simulation box PHI	34	7	4	1	4	4	12
Simulation box PIT	31	6	5	1	5	2	4

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away PHI	Starter	Aaron Nola	5	2	4	3	0	5.22	1.53	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Brad Keller	1	0	0	0	0	3.62	1.39	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Jhoan Duran	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.32	1.31	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Orion Kerkering	0.20	2	0	2	1	3.34	1.17	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	José Alvarado	0	1	0	1	1	3.68	1.37	True
Home PIT	Starter	Braxton Ashcraft	6.10	1	8	3	3	3.47	1.16	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Dennis Santana	1	0	2	0	0	4.30	1.38	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Gregory Soto	1	3	1	3	1	3.16	1.01	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Mason Montgomery	0.20	0	1	1	0	2.74	1.14	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: PHI

Kyle Schwarber (656941) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 44

All-history rows before 20260515: 44

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2256

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.159	0.000	-0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	5.000	-0.727	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.200	-0.226	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.659	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.659	0.000	1.341	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.841	1.000	-0.841	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.409	1.000	-0.409	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.200	0.045	0.200
predicted_R	0.682	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.682	1.000	-0.682	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.682	2.000	-0.682	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.610	0.800	-0.610	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.432	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.432	3.000	-0.432	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.659	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.682	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.432	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.763	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.001
predicted_BB	0.618	-0.041
predicted_H	0.870	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.053	-
predicted_HR	0.279	0.169
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.019
predicted_R	0.703	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.604	0.184
predicted_SLG	0.519	0.124
predicted_SO	1.403	-0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.763	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.611	-0.007
predicted_H	0.853	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.053	0.000
predicted_HR	0.272	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.011
predicted_R	0.679	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.584	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.492	-0.027
predicted_SO	1.418	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.3158	0.4091	1.1053	0.3158	0.2632	0.4210	0.1579	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	10.000	8.000	4.000	15.000	0.2439	0.3111	0.7805	0.2439	0.1707	0.2439	0.0976	0.3659
season	0.60	44	-	164.000	37.000	7.000	1.000	18.000	30.000	30.000	29.000	63.000	0.2256	0.3553	0.6098	0.2256	0.1098	0.1829	0.1768	0.3841

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1250
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8140
predicted_AVG	0.2468
predicted_BB	0.5580
predicted_H	0.9410
predicted_HBP	0.0530
predicted_HR	0.5210
predicted_OBP	0.3504
predicted_R	0.7320
predicted_RBI	0.8660
predicted_SLG	0.6970
predicted_SO	1.3620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1590	0.1250	0.1450	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	3.8140	3.7628	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2468	0.2452	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6590	0.5580	0.6175	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9410	0.8698	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0530	0.0530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.5210	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3504	0.3237	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6820	0.7320	0.7026	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.8660	0.6035	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.6970	0.5192	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4320	1.3620	1.4032	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	656941
playerID	656941
playerName	Kyle Schwarber
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PHI
teamID	21

Edmundo Sosa (624641) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2295

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.389	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.389	3.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.000	-0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.328	0.000	-0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	3.000	0.167	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.389	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.056	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.432	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.075	0.019
predicted_H	0.751	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.014
predicted_OBP	0.285	-0.020
predicted_R	0.239	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.391	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.027
predicted_SO	0.843	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.432	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.074	-0.001
predicted_H	0.737	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.084	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.231	-0.054
predicted_R	0.232	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.378	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.852	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.1176	0.1176	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.0000	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	0.2727	0.2727	0.3030	0.2727	0.0000	0.1515	0.0000	0.2424
season	0.60	18	-	61.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	15.000	0.2295	0.2419	0.3279	0.2295	0.0164	0.1311	0.0164	0.2459

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5110
predicted_AVG	0.2249
predicted_BB	0.1090
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.2500
predicted_R	0.2710
predicted_RBI	0.4280
predicted_SLG	0.3179
predicted_SO	0.8610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1380	0.1567	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3890	3.5110	3.4323	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2249	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0560	0.1090	0.0748	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7900	0.7513	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0600	0.0858	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2500	0.2855	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.2710	0.2394	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4280	0.3906	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3179	0.3677	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.8610	0.8429	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-LF
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	624641
playerID	624641
playerName	Edmundo Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Alec Bohm (664761) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 39

All-history rows before 20260515: 39

System season_avg: 0.1960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1958

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.196	0.500	-0.196	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.718	2.000	-0.718	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.500	-0.258	-0.500
predicted_R	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.282	1.000	-0.282	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.287	0.500	-0.287	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.590	1.000	0.410	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.282	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.282	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.590	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.652	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.007
predicted_BB	0.278	-0.004
predicted_H	0.861	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.030	-
predicted_HR	0.125	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.005
predicted_R	0.347	0.065
predicted_RBI	0.489	0.079
predicted_SLG	0.410	0.015
predicted_SO	0.580	-0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.652	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.275	-0.003
predicted_H	0.845	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.121	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.285	-0.025
predicted_R	0.335	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.473	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.047
predicted_SO	0.586	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.4444	0.4737	0.8333	0.4444	0.1111	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.2941	0.3514	0.5000	0.2941	0.0588	0.1765	0.0882	0.1177
season	0.60	39	-	143.000	28.000	4.000	3.000	20.000	11.000	11.000	23.000	0.1958	0.2579	0.2867	0.1958	0.0210	0.1399	0.0769	0.1608

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1300
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6310
predicted_AVG	0.2618
predicted_BB	0.2720
predicted_H	0.9510
predicted_HBP	0.0300
predicted_HR	0.1610
predicted_OBP	0.3175
predicted_R	0.4420
predicted_RBI	0.6060
predicted_SLG	0.4317
predicted_SO	0.5640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1300	0.1139	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.6310	3.6525	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2618	0.2512	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2820	0.2720	0.2780	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9510	0.8609	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0300	0.0300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1610	0.1246	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3175	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2820	0.4420	0.3466	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.6060	0.4891	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4317	0.4098	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5900	0.5640	0.5795	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.196

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	664761
playerID	664761
playerName	Alec Bohm
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brandon Marsh (669016) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 37

All-history rows before 20260515: 37

System season_avg: 0.3400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3404

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.811	4.000	0.189	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.340	0.250	-0.090	0.000
predicted_BB	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.297	1.000	-0.297	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.250	-0.114	0.000
predicted_R	0.595	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.595	0.000	0.405	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.568	0.000	-0.568	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.482	0.250	-0.232	0.000
predicted_SO	0.730	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.730	1.000	2.270	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.811	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.162	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.595	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.730	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.029	0.002
predicted_AB	3.795	-0.016
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.041
predicted_BB	0.161	-0.001
predicted_H	1.009	0.199
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.096	-0.014
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.027
predicted_R	0.596	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.022
predicted_SO	0.714	-0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.795	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.160	-0.002
predicted_H	0.990	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.093	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.041
predicted_R	0.576	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.410	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.387	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.721	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.811

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.3889	0.3889	0.3889	0.3889	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	16.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	0.4211	0.4390	0.4737	0.4210	0.0000	0.0790	0.0526	0.1316
season	0.60	37	-	141.000	48.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	21.000	22.000	6.000	27.000	0.3404	0.3642	0.4823	0.3404	0.0284	0.1489	0.0425	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0320
predicted_AB	3.7710
predicted_AVG	0.3460
predicted_BB	0.1600
predicted_H	1.3050
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_OBP	0.3711
predicted_R	0.5970
predicted_RBI	0.4440
predicted_SLG	0.4507
predicted_SO	0.6900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1100	0.1411	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0320	0.0290	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8110	3.7710	3.7949	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3460	0.2850	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1620	0.1600	0.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	1.3050	1.0088	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0740	0.0955	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3711	0.3315	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5950	0.5970	0.5958	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4440	0.4237	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4507	0.4174	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7300	0.6900	0.7139	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.34

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	669016
playerID	669016
playerName	Brandon Marsh
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryson Stott (681082) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 33

All-history rows before 20260515: 33

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2131

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2130

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.697	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.697	3.000	0.303	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.000	-0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.788	0.000	-0.788	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.369	0.000	-0.369	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	2.333	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.697	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.212	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	0.040
predicted_3B	0.050	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.711	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.209	-0.003
predicted_H	0.813	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.013
predicted_R	0.397	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.455	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.003
predicted_SO	0.672	0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.207	-0.002
predicted_H	0.798	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.097	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.256	-0.036
predicted_R	0.384	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.440	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.380	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.679	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.4211	0.2632	0.0000	0.1579	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.2162	0.2368	0.4865	0.2162	0.0541	0.2162	0.0270	0.1622
season	0.60	33	-	122.000	26.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	15.000	12.000	7.000	22.000	0.2131	0.2615	0.3689	0.2131	0.0246	0.1230	0.0574	0.1803

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2840
predicted_3B	0.0320
predicted_AB	3.7330
predicted_AVG	0.2275
predicted_BB	0.2050
predicted_H	0.8490
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.2720
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.5380
predicted_SLG	0.4013
predicted_SO	0.6800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2840	0.2223	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.0320	0.0495	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6970	3.7330	3.7112	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2275	0.2375	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2120	0.2050	0.2092	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8490	0.8133	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2720	0.2920	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.4480	0.3972	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.5380	0.4545	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4013	0.3975	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6800	0.6721	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	681082
playerID	681082
playerName	Bryson Stott
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2658

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2660

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.209	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.209	0.000	0.791	1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.674	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.674	4.000	-0.674	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.250	0.068	0.083
predicted_BB	0.558	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.558	1.000	0.442	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.977	1.000	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.400	0.139	0.100
predicted_R	0.581	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.581	0.000	0.419	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.558	0.000	1.442	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.525	0.250	0.141	0.417
predicted_SO	0.698	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.698	0.000	0.302	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.674	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.558	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.581	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.698	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.706	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.005
predicted_BB	0.549	-0.009
predicted_H	0.885	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.164	0.054
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.018
predicted_R	0.580	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.444	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.044
predicted_SO	0.713	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.706	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.543	-0.006
predicted_H	0.868	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.159	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.009
predicted_R	0.561	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.429	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.426	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.721	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	6.000	5.000	0.2973	0.3953	0.6757	0.2973	0.1081	0.1351	0.1622	0.1351
season	0.60	43	-	158.000	42.000	9.000	1.000	10.000	24.000	25.000	24.000	30.000	0.2658	0.3607	0.5253	0.2658	0.0633	0.1519	0.1519	0.1899

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7520
predicted_AVG	0.2568
predicted_BB	0.5350
predicted_H	0.9640
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2410
predicted_OBP	0.3492
predicted_R	0.5790
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.5026
predicted_SO	0.7350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2090	0.1700	0.1931	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6740	3.7520	3.7059	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2568	0.2492	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5580	0.5350	0.5486	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9640	0.8848	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2410	0.1636	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3492	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5810	0.5790	0.5802	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4790	0.4441	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5026	0.4390	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6980	0.7350	0.7131	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Garrett Stubbs (596117) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 5

All-history rows before 20260515: 5

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.250	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	0.200
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.250	-0.044
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.267	0.250	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.400	1.000	0.600

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.134	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.002
predicted_BB	0.214	0.014
predicted_H	0.667	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.001
predicted_R	0.246	0.046
predicted_RBI	0.317	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.383	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.472	0.072

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.134	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.037
predicted_BB	0.211	-0.002
predicted_H	0.655	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.076	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.045
predicted_R	0.238	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.306	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.292	-0.091
predicted_SO	0.477	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2667	0.2941	0.2667	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667	0.1333
last_10	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2667	0.2941	0.2667	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667	0.1333
season	0.60	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2667	0.2941	0.2667	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667	0.1333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.5080
predicted_AVG	0.2521
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_H	0.8840
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.3013
predicted_R	0.3760
predicted_RBI	0.3630
predicted_SLG	0.3483
predicted_SO	0.6740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1060	0.0279	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.5080	3.1338	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2521	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2520	0.2137	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.8840	0.6674	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0720	0.0779	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3013	0.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3760	0.2463	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3630	0.3166	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3483	0.3827	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4000	0.6740	0.4721	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	596117
playerID	596117
playerName	Garrett Stubbs
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Trea Turner (607208) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2330

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.190	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.190	5.000	-0.190	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.200	0.267	0.300
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	1.000	1.024	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	0.905	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.200	0.320	0.400
predicted_R	0.595	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.595	1.000	0.405	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	0.000	1.690	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.341	0.200	1.159	1.300
predicted_SO	0.952	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.952	2.000	0.048	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.190	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.595	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.952	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.219	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.248	-0.038
predicted_H	0.973	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.025
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.019
predicted_R	0.570	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.418	-0.082
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.035
predicted_SO	0.980	0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.219	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.246	-0.003
predicted_H	0.954	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.017
predicted_R	0.551	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.404	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.991	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.190

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2174	0.2174	0.2174	0.2174	0.0000	0.0435	0.0000	0.2609
last_10	0.20	10	-	45.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	12.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2444	0.2000	0.0000	0.0444	0.0000	0.2667
season	0.60	42	-	176.000	41.000	7.000	4.000	13.000	25.000	12.000	40.000	0.2330	0.2804	0.3409	0.2329	0.0227	0.0739	0.0682	0.2273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.2610
predicted_AVG	0.2261
predicted_BB	0.1940
predicted_H	0.9630
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.2591
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.3000
predicted_SLG	0.3103
predicted_SO	1.0210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1480	0.1592	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1900	4.2610	4.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2261	0.2367	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.1940	0.2483	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9630	0.9730	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.0690	0.1050	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2591	0.2862	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5950	0.5350	0.5704	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.3000	0.4180	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3103	0.3603	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9520	1.0210	0.9803	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	607208
playerID	607208
playerName	Trea Turner
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

Justin Crawford (702222) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 35

All-history rows before 20260515: 35

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2821

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.343	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.343	3.000	0.657	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.333	0.218	0.167
predicted_BB	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.943	1.000	1.057	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	1.000	-0.057	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.333	0.146	0.167
predicted_R	0.314	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.314	1.000	0.686	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.427	1.333	0.073	-0.833
predicted_SO	0.771	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	1.000	-0.771	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.343	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.314	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.314	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.053	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.332	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.019
predicted_BB	0.341	0.027
predicted_H	0.794	0.114
predicted_HBP	0.033	-
predicted_HR	0.117	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.025
predicted_R	0.333	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.046
predicted_SO	0.798	0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.332	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.337	-0.004
predicted_H	0.779	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.033	0.000
predicted_HR	0.114	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.026
predicted_R	0.322	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.357	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.423	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.807	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.3571	0.4706	0.7857	0.3571	0.1429	0.2143	0.2143	0.3571
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.6250	0.3125	0.0625	0.1562	0.1250	0.2500
season	0.60	35	-	117.000	33.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	11.000	11.000	27.000	0.2821	0.3538	0.4274	0.2821	0.0171	0.0855	0.0940	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0470
predicted_AB	3.3160
predicted_AVG	0.2921
predicted_BB	0.3810
predicted_H	0.9690
predicted_HBP	0.0330
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_OBP	0.3694
predicted_R	0.3610
predicted_RBI	0.4150
predicted_SLG	0.5116
predicted_SO	0.8400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1600	0.1842	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0470	0.0530	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3430	3.3160	3.3323	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2921	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3140	0.3810	0.3405	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.9690	0.7942	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0330	0.0330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1580	0.1169	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3694	0.3304	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3140	0.3610	0.3326	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4150	0.3696	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5116	0.4411	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.8400	0.7983	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	702222
playerID	702222
playerName	Justin Crawford
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Aaron Nola (605400) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.875	2.000	-1.875	-2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	3.000	3.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	5.875	6.000	-2.875	-3.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.075	4.200	-0.075	0.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	5.500	4.000	-1.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.200	17.000	32.000	11.000	25.000	4.000	6.2027	1.7432	0.6892	1.2973	0.4460	1.0135	0.1622
last_10	0.35	8	42.000	24.000	47.000	15.000	44.000	7.000	5.1429	1.4762	0.5714	1.1191	0.3571	1.0476	0.1667
season	0.20	8	42.000	24.000	47.000	15.000	44.000	7.000	5.1429	1.4762	0.5714	1.1191	0.3571	1.0476	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0450
predicted_ER	2.9400
predicted_ERA	5.2234
predicted_H	5.6970
predicted_HR	0.7610
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.0620
predicted_WHIP	1.5284

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.0450	0.9970	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.9400	2.4583	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2234	5.2234	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.6970	4.3148	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7610	0.8835	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.0620	4.0052	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5284	1.5284	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	4
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	92

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	5.14
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	605400
playerID	605400
playerName	Aaron Nola
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.895	1.000	-0.895	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.921	1.000	0.079	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.211	2.000	-1.211	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	1.8000	1.8000	0.2000	1.4000	0.4000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	9.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.9000	0.3000	1.4000	0.1000
season	0.20	19	18.200	8.000	17.000	6.000	23.000	2.000	3.8571	1.2321	0.4286	0.9107	0.3214	1.2321	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3680
predicted_ER	0.4020
predicted_ERA	3.6188
predicted_H	1.0190
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1710
predicted_WHIP	1.3870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3680	0.1500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4020	0.1638	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6188	3.6188	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0190	0.4153	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0980	0.0399	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1710	0.4772	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3870	1.3870	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	6

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jhoan Duran (661395) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 13

All-history rows before 20260515: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.385	1.000	-0.385	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.862	1.000	0.238	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.462	3.000	-1.462	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	1.8000	1.6000	0.2000	0.6000	1.0000	2.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	16.000	0.9000	1.0000	0.1000	0.5000	0.5000	1.6000
season	0.20	12	11.200	2.000	8.000	5.000	19.000	1.5429	1.1143	0.1714	0.6857	0.4286	1.6286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4860
predicted_ER	0.3690
predicted_ERA	3.3203
predicted_H	0.8260
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2500
predicted_WHIP	1.3118

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4860	0.1757	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3690	0.1334	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3203	3.3203	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8260	0.2985	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0880	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2500	0.4518	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3118	1.3118	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	4

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	661395
playerID	661395
playerName	Jhoan Duran
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Orion Kerkering (689147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 17

All-history rows before 20260515: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.235	1.000	1.765	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.706	2.000	1.294	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.806	0.100	-0.606	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.647	0.000	-0.647	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	1.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.8182	0.0000	0.5454	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.0385	0.9231	0.1154	0.6923	0.2308	0.8077	0.1154
season	0.20	17	15.100	4.000	12.000	6.000	11.000	2.000	2.3478	1.1739	0.2609	0.7826	0.3913	0.7174	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2190
predicted_ER	0.2730
predicted_ERA	3.3403
predicted_H	0.6430
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6260
predicted_WHIP	1.1711

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2190	0.6973	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2730	1.3306	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3403	3.3403	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6430	1.4740	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1120	0.0434	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6260	0.2426	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1711	1.1711	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.35
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	689147
playerID	689147
playerName	Orion Kerkering
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

José Alvarado (621237) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.450	1.000	0.550	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.050	2.000	-0.050	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.575	1.000	-0.575	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	2.0769	0.9231	0.2308	0.6923	0.2308	1.6154
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	2.000	11.000	4.000	11.000	2.2500	1.8750	0.2500	1.3750	0.5000	1.3750
season	0.20	20	15.000	9.000	21.000	7.000	20.000	5.4000	1.8667	0.6000	1.4000	0.4667	1.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1940
predicted_ER	0.2100
predicted_ERA	3.6751
predicted_H	0.5080
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5920
predicted_WHIP	1.3670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1940	0.6894	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2100	0.6955	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6751	3.6751	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5080	0.8104	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0420	0.0162	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5920	0.8428	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3670	1.3670	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	621237
playerID	621237
playerName	José Alvarado
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Home Team: PIT

Brandon Lowe (664040) · BATTER · 2B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 37

All-history rows before 20260515: 37

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.892	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.892	5.000	0.108	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.622	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.622	0.000	-0.622	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.973	0.000	-0.973	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.649	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.649	0.000	-0.649	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.757	0.000	-0.757	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.535	0.000	-0.535	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.892	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.622	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.649	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.043	0.016
predicted_AB	3.880	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.640	0.018
predicted_H	0.873	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.033
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.015
predicted_R	0.634	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.130
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.029
predicted_SO	1.004	0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.880	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.646	0.006
predicted_H	0.887	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.146	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.019
predicted_R	0.651	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.586	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.422	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.995	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.892

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	0.1500	0.2800	0.3000	0.1500	0.0000	0.2500	0.2000	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	8.000	10.000	8.000	0.2432	0.3958	0.4865	0.2432	0.0541	0.2162	0.2703	0.2162
season	0.60	37	-	144.000	36.000	9.000	1.000	10.000	28.000	24.000	23.000	37.000	0.2500	0.3550	0.5347	0.2500	0.0694	0.1944	0.1597	0.2569

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2010
predicted_3B	0.0660
predicted_AB	3.8630
predicted_AVG	0.2309
predicted_BB	0.6670
predicted_H	0.8920
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_OBP	0.3417
predicted_R	0.6110
predicted_RBI	0.7610
predicted_SLG	0.4655
predicted_SO	1.0090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.2010	0.2260	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0660	0.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8920	3.8630	3.8802	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2309	0.2387	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6220	0.6670	0.6403	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8920	0.8730	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1910	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3417	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6490	0.6110	0.6336	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.7610	0.5703	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4655	0.4236	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0090	1.0037	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	664040
playerID	664040
playerName	Brandon Lowe
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Marcell Ozuna (542303) · BATTER · DH · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 35

All-history rows before 20260515: 35

System season_avg: 0.1870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1871

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.971	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.971	3.000	0.029	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.187	0.000	0.063	0.250
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.743	0.000	0.257	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.250	-0.021	0.000
predicted_R	0.371	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.371	1.000	0.629	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.302	0.000	-0.052	0.250
predicted_SO	1.114	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.114	1.000	-1.114	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.971	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.114	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.930	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.441	0.041
predicted_H	0.801	-0.039
predicted_HBP	0.085	-
predicted_HR	0.104	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.003
predicted_R	0.398	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.395	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.359	-0.036
predicted_SO	1.109	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.930	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.445	0.004
predicted_H	0.814	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.085	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.014
predicted_R	0.409	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.406	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.322	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.099	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=68.0, weight=0.250, BvP AVG=0.235)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.971

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	0.1053	0.2917	0.1579	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.2105	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	0.2432	0.3778	0.3784	0.2432	0.0270	0.1081	0.1892	0.2703
season	0.60	35	-	139.000	26.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	13.000	14.000	39.000	0.1871	0.2710	0.3022	0.1870	0.0288	0.1007	0.1007	0.2806

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8690
predicted_AVG	0.1920
predicted_BB	0.5020
predicted_H	0.7430
predicted_HBP	0.0850
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_OBP	0.2979
predicted_R	0.4370
predicted_RBI	0.3440
predicted_SLG	0.3058
predicted_SO	1.1010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1550	0.1305	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9710	3.8690	3.9299	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1920	0.2231	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.5020	0.4411	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.7430	0.8010	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0850	0.0850	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0940	0.1036	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2979	0.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.4370	0.3976	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.3440	0.3954	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3058	0.3591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1140	1.1010	1.1088	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.187

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	542303
playerID	542303
playerName	Marcell Ozuna
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PIT
teamID	22

Oneil Cruz (665833) · BATTER · CF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2614

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3040

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.220	1.000	0.780	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.293	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.293	5.000	-0.293	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.200	-0.011	0.050
predicted_BB	0.366	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.122	1.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.200	-0.076	0.050
predicted_R	0.829	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.829	1.000	0.171	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.732	1.000	0.268	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.483	0.400	0.017	0.100
predicted_SO	1.561	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.561	1.000	-1.561	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.293	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.366	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.829	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.561	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.274	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.013
predicted_BB	0.366	0.000
predicted_H	1.069	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.156	0.026
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.014
predicted_R	0.865	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.532	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.430	0.035
predicted_SO	1.495	-0.066

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.274	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.369	0.003
predicted_H	1.086	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.048	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.006
predicted_R	0.889	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.547	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.425	-0.006
predicted_SO	1.482	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.293

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	2.000	8.000	0.3478	0.4000	0.6087	0.3478	0.0435	0.0870	0.0870	0.3478
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	4.000	12.000	0.2683	0.3478	0.4146	0.2683	0.0244	0.0732	0.0976	0.2927
season	0.60	41	-	176.000	46.000	9.000	10.000	30.000	34.000	15.000	64.000	0.2614	0.3264	0.4830	0.2614	0.0568	0.1704	0.0852	0.3636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2890
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.2460
predicted_AVG	0.2752
predicted_BB	0.3660
predicted_H	1.1680
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.1930
predicted_OBP	0.3400
predicted_R	0.9170
predicted_RBI	0.5640
predicted_SLG	0.4810
predicted_SO	1.4010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2200	0.2890	0.2483	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2930	4.2460	4.2737	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2752	0.2568	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3660	0.3660	0.3660	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1680	1.0690	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1930	0.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3400	0.3194	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8290	0.9170	0.8651	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5640	0.5322	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4810	0.4303	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5610	1.4010	1.4953	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	665833
playerID	665833
playerName	Oneil Cruz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Ryan O'Hearn (656811) · BATTER · RF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3007

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3010

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.825	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.825	4.000	-0.825	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.750	0.033	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.150	3.000	-0.150	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.175	1.000	-0.175	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.750	0.126	-0.250
predicted_R	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.650	2.000	-0.650	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.725	2.000	-0.725	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.477	1.500	-0.144	-1.167
predicted_SO	0.825	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.825	0.000	-0.825	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.825	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.825	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.889	0.064
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.021
predicted_BB	0.415	-0.035
predicted_H	0.972	0.142
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.149	0.039
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.021
predicted_R	0.692	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.545	0.115
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.040
predicted_SO	0.827	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.419	0.004
predicted_H	0.988	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.152	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.001
predicted_R	0.711	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.412	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.820	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.825

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	0.3478	0.3750	0.6522	0.3478	0.0870	0.1739	0.0435	0.1304
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.4750	0.2750	0.0500	0.2000	0.0750	0.2500
season	0.60	40	-	153.000	46.000	6.000	7.000	29.000	26.000	18.000	33.000	0.3007	0.3736	0.4771	0.3006	0.0457	0.1895	0.1177	0.2157

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1710
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9830
predicted_AVG	0.2960
predicted_BB	0.3640
predicted_H	1.1790
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.2050
predicted_OBP	0.3556
predicted_R	0.7530
predicted_RBI	0.7130
predicted_SLG	0.4945
predicted_SO	0.8300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1710	0.1585	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8250	3.9830	3.8893	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2960	0.2652	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.3640	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	1.1790	0.9720	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2050	0.1487	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3556	0.3256	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.7530	0.6919	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.7130	0.5452	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4945	0.4355	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8250	0.8300	0.8270	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-1B
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	656811
playerID	656811
playerName	Ryan O'Hearn
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Bryan Reynolds (668804) · BATTER · LF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2533

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	4.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.250	0.080	0.083
predicted_BB	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.810	0.000	0.190	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	1.000	0.095	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	0.905	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.396	0.250	0.104	0.250
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.619	1.000	0.381	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.393	0.250	0.940	1.083
predicted_SO	1.048	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.048	0.000	-1.048	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.810	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.048	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.039	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.574	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.767	-0.043
predicted_H	0.829	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.014
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.027
predicted_R	0.613	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.492	0.082
predicted_SLG	0.373	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.945	-0.103

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	0.000
predicted_3B	0.039	0.000
predicted_AB	3.574	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.773	0.007
predicted_H	0.842	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.088	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.040
predicted_R	0.630	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.506	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.363	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.937	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.2222	0.1667	0.0556
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	5.000	8.000	6.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.2647	0.2353	0.0000	0.1471	0.2353	0.1765
season	0.60	42	-	150.000	38.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	26.000	28.000	34.000	44.000	0.2533	0.3957	0.3933	0.2533	0.0267	0.1733	0.2267	0.2933

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1030
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.5780
predicted_AVG	0.2435
predicted_BB	0.7040
predicted_H	0.8710
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3699
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.6100
predicted_SLG	0.3418
predicted_SO	0.7970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1190	0.1030	0.1124	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0260	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.5780	3.5739	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2435	0.2438	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8100	0.7040	0.7666	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8710	0.8291	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0650	0.0857	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3699	0.3316	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5350	0.6129	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.6100	0.4919	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3418	0.3732	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0480	0.7970	0.9452	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	668804
playerID	668804
playerName	Bryan Reynolds
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Endy Rodríguez (682848) · BATTER · C · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 1

All-history rows before 20260515: 1

System season_avg: 0.6670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.6667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.667	0.667	-0.667	-0.667
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.333	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.750	0.750	-0.417	-0.417
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.667	Hitting_SLG	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	1.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.866	-0.134
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.135	0.135
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.010
predicted_BB	0.883	-0.117
predicted_H	0.702	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.010
predicted_R	0.082	0.082
predicted_RBI	0.384	0.074
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.014
predicted_SO	0.141	0.141

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.866	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.135	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.891	0.008
predicted_H	0.713	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.087	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.398	0.083
predicted_R	0.084	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.395	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.665	0.257
predicted_SO	0.140	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB
last_5	0.20	1	-	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.6667	0.7500	1.0000	0.6667	0.6667	0.3333
last_10	0.20	1	-	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.6667	0.7500	1.0000	0.6667	0.6667	0.3333
season	0.60	1	-	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.6667	0.7500	1.0000	0.6667	0.6667	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3000
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.7030
predicted_AVG	0.2936
predicted_BB	0.3900
predicted_H	1.0870
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_OBP	0.3577
predicted_R	0.4260
predicted_RBI	0.6960
predicted_SLG	0.4657
predicted_SO	0.7360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	1.0000	0.3000	0.8657	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.7030	3.1349	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2936	0.2535	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3900	0.8829	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	1.0870	0.7015	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1050	0.0848	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3577	0.3151	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4260	0.0817	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.6960	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4657	0.4086	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7360	0.1412	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.667

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	682848
playerID	682848
playerName	Endy Rodríguez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PIT
teamID	22

Spencer Horwitz (687462) · BATTER · 1B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 34

All-history rows before 20260515: 34

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2679

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	1.000	-0.206	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.294	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.294	4.000	0.706	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.250	-0.268	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.676	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.676	0.000	-0.676	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.882	1.000	-0.882	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.391	0.250	-0.391	-0.250
predicted_R	0.353	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.353	1.000	0.647	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.402	0.500	-0.402	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.294	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.676	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.353	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	0.055
predicted_3B	0.031	0.002
predicted_AB	3.370	0.076
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.016
predicted_BB	0.686	0.010
predicted_H	0.823	0.113
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.074	-0.015
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.039
predicted_R	0.375	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.471	0.111
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.020
predicted_SO	0.524	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.370	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.692	0.006
predicted_H	0.836	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.076	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.032
predicted_R	0.385	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.485	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.412	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.519	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	0.3889	0.5217	0.6111	0.3889	0.0000	0.2778	0.2778	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	4.000	0.2778	0.4222	0.4722	0.2778	0.0000	0.2500	0.2500	0.1111
season	0.60	34	-	112.000	30.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	17.000	12.000	23.000	17.000	0.2679	0.3913	0.4018	0.2679	0.0179	0.1518	0.2054	0.1518

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3430
predicted_3B	0.0340
predicted_AB	3.4840
predicted_AVG	0.2851
predicted_BB	0.7010
predicted_H	0.9930
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.4025
predicted_R	0.4080
predicted_RBI	0.6400
predicted_SLG	0.4464
predicted_SO	0.5600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.3430	0.2605	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0340	0.0310	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2940	3.4840	3.3696	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2851	0.2603	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6760	0.7010	0.6859	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.9930	0.8226	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0510	0.0745	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.4025	0.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3530	0.4080	0.3749	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.6400	0.4714	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4464	0.4154	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5600	0.5239	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	687462
playerID	687462
playerName	Spencer Horwitz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Jared Triolo (669707) · BATTER · 3B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 11

All-history rows before 20260515: 11

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1390

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.545	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.545	3.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.667	-0.231	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	2.000	-0.818	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.750	-0.302	-0.750
predicted_R	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.282	0.667	-0.282	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	0.000	0.273	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.182	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.564	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.273	-0.000
predicted_H	0.752	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.057	-
predicted_HR	0.076	-0.014
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.001
predicted_R	0.211	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.340	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.373	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.738	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.564	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.275	0.002
predicted_H	0.764	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.034
predicted_R	0.217	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.331	-0.042
predicted_SO	0.731	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.3125	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.2286	0.3077	0.2571	0.2286	0.0571	0.0857	0.2000
season	0.60	11	-	39.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.2308	0.3023	0.2821	0.2308	0.0513	0.0769	0.2051

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6020
predicted_AVG	0.2382
predicted_BB	0.2720
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HBP	0.0570
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.3032
predicted_R	0.2700
predicted_RBI	0.3000
predicted_SLG	0.3289
predicted_SO	0.7590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1740	0.1794	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5450	3.6020	3.5638	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2382	0.2421	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2720	0.2727	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8580	0.7521	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0570	0.0570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0470	0.0758	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3032	0.3044	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1820	0.2700	0.2110	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3000	0.3402	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3289	0.3732	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.7590	0.7376	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	669707
playerID	669707
playerName	Jared Triolo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Konnor Griffin (804606) · BATTER · SS · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 36

All-history rows before 20260515: 36

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2574

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	4.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.500	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.972	2.000	1.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.500	0.180	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.500	0.353	0.250
predicted_SO	1.167	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	2.000	-1.167	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.012
predicted_3B	0.046	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.802	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.002
predicted_BB	0.298	-0.008
predicted_H	0.869	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.034	-
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.001
predicted_R	0.537	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.437	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.003
predicted_SO	1.158	-0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.046	0.000
predicted_AB	3.802	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.300	0.003
predicted_H	0.883	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.034	0.000
predicted_HR	0.113	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.016
predicted_R	0.552	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.449	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.393	-0.006
predicted_SO	1.148	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.2381	0.2609	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	13.000	0.2432	0.2927	0.4054	0.2432	0.0270	0.0811	0.0811	0.3513
season	0.60	36	-	136.000	35.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	18.000	18.000	11.000	42.000	0.2574	0.3200	0.3971	0.2574	0.0221	0.1323	0.0809	0.3088

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1970
predicted_3B	0.0310
predicted_AB	3.8380
predicted_AVG	0.2496
predicted_BB	0.2850
predicted_H	0.9580
predicted_HBP	0.0340
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_OBP	0.3032
predicted_R	0.5930
predicted_RBI	0.4770
predicted_SLG	0.4033
predicted_SO	1.1440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1970	0.1790	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0310	0.0460	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	3.8380	3.8021	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2496	0.2462	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.2850	0.2976	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9580	0.8694	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0340	0.0340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1110	0.1104	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3032	0.3043	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5930	0.5373	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4770	0.4369	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4033	0.3983	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.1440	1.1578	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	804606
playerID	804606
playerName	Konnor Griffin
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PIT
teamID	22

Braxton Ashcraft (677952) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.750	0.000	1.250	3.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.875	1.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.625	6.000	-1.625	-3.000
predicted_IP	6.100	6.100	6.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.938	7.000	0.162	-0.900
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_SO	6.375	6.000	1.625	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 6.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.200	11.000	25.000	9.000	31.000	4.000	3.1263	1.0737	0.3474	0.7895	0.2842	0.9789	0.1263
last_10	0.35	8	48.200	15.000	37.000	14.000	51.000	4.000	2.7740	1.0479	0.3082	0.7603	0.2877	1.0479	0.0822
season	0.20	8	48.200	15.000	37.000	14.000	51.000	4.000	2.7740	1.0479	0.3082	0.7603	0.2877	1.0479	0.0822

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0200
predicted_ER	2.4160
predicted_ERA	3.4687
predicted_H	5.2740
predicted_HR	0.7440
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	6.1740
predicted_WHIP	1.1636

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.0200	2.5222	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.4160	1.6903	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4687	3.4687	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.2740	4.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7440	0.8752	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.1000	6.1000	6.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	6.1740	7.1098	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1636	1.1636	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.1
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	8
HR	1
BF	25
Pitches	113

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.77
Pitching_Flyouts	7
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	80
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	677952
playerID	677952
playerName	Braxton Ashcraft
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Dennis Santana (642701) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.737	0.000	-0.737	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.916	1.000	0.084	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.526	0.000	1.474	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.8571	1.2857	0.4286	1.0714	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	6.000	12.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	5.7857	1.8214	0.6429	1.2857	0.5357	0.4286	0.2143
season	0.20	19	18.100	7.000	14.000	9.000	10.000	2.000	3.4364	1.2545	0.3818	0.7636	0.4909	0.5454	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3820
predicted_ER	0.4780
predicted_ERA	4.3023
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6640
predicted_WHIP	1.3823

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3820	0.1550	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4780	0.1939	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3023	4.3023	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0010	0.4061	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1150	0.0467	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6640	1.4580	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3823	1.3823	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.44
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	642701
playerID	642701
playerName	Dennis Santana
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Gregory Soto (642397) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 21

All-history rows before 20260515: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.190	1.000	2.810	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.381	2.000	2.619	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.971	1.000	0.029	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.238	0.000	-0.238	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	1.5882	0.5294	0.1765	0.3529	0.1765	0.8823	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	6.000	2.000	11.000	0.000	2.5312	0.7500	0.2812	0.5625	0.1875	1.0312	0.0000
season	0.20	21	21.100	4.000	8.000	7.000	26.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7031	0.1875	0.3750	0.3281	1.2188	0.0469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_ER	0.3510
predicted_ERA	3.1594
predicted_H	0.7060
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9790
predicted_WHIP	1.0087

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3030	0.7062	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3510	1.8835	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1594	3.1594	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.7060	2.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0740	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9790	0.9911	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0087	1.0087	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	642397
playerID	642397
playerName	Gregory Soto
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mason Montgomery (682254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 17

All-history rows before 20260515: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.765	1.000	0.235	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.829	1.000	-0.629	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.529	3.000	-0.529	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.3750	0.3750	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	0.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7742	0.0000	0.4839	0.2903	1.1613	0.0000
season	0.20	17	16.200	5.000	13.000	8.000	26.000	1.000	2.7000	1.2600	0.3000	0.7800	0.4800	1.5600	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3000
predicted_ER	0.2430
predicted_ERA	2.7384
predicted_H	0.6090
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8250
predicted_WHIP	1.1371

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3000	0.1188	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2430	0.0962	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7384	2.7384	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6090	0.8452	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0660	0.0261	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8250	0.9307	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1371	1.1371	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	682254
playerID	682254
playerName	Mason Montgomery
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

20260515_SD@SEA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.53, "home_win_probability": 0.47, "away_win_probability": 0.53, "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 3 SEA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 3 SEA", "confidence": 0.53, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SD 4 - 3 SEA", "winner": "SD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SD 6 - 3 SEA", "winner": "SD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 2, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SD 4 - 3 SEA	SD	0.530	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SD 6 - 3 SEA	SD	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SD	5-5	0.500	3.30	3.50	-2	1L	cold	average
Home SEA	6-4	0.600	4.80	3.40	14	1W	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away SD	25-18	0.581	-3	-0.070	True
Home SEA	22-23	0.489	16	0.356	True
Signal	-	-	0.425	0.287	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-04-17	SEA @ SD	2 - 5	SD	3	blowout
2026-04-16	SEA @ SD	6 - 7	SD	1	close
2026-04-15	SEA @ SD	1 - 4	SD	3	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SD	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target SEA	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SD	33	9	1	0	0	0	9
Player finalized SEA	33	9	4	0	2	1	9
Player model fractional SD	31.89	6.71	3.91	0.86	3.30	3.23	8.37
Player model fractional SEA	31.39	7.39	4.52	1.03	3.88	3.13	7.39
Simulation box SD	35	8	6	3	6	2	10
Simulation box SEA	33	7	3	2	3	3	5

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SD	Starter	Randy Vásquez	5.20	2	5	5	2	4.05	1.26	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Adrian Morejon	1	1	0	1	0	4.71	1.20	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Jason Adam	1	0	0	1	0	3.07	1.15	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Mason Miller	1	0	0	0	1	2.70	1.15	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Jeremiah Estrada	0.10	0	0	0	0	3.36	1.11	True
Home SEA	Starter	Emerson Hancock	6	3	6	6	0	3.88	1.19	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Andrés Muñoz	1	1	2	1	0	3.97	1.29	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Cooper Criswell	1	0	2	0	0	2.87	1.04	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Eduard Bazardo	1	2	0	1	2	4.13	1.43	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SD

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 32

All-history rows before 20260515: 32

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2182

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.438	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	3.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.750	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.333	0.532	0.417
predicted_BB	0.281	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.281	1.000	-0.281	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	2.250	2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.500	0.467	0.250
predicted_R	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	2.625	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	2.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.333	1.600	1.667
predicted_SO	0.781	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.781	0.000	-0.781	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.438	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.281	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.781	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-0.039
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.417	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.319	0.038
predicted_H	0.764	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.120	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.003
predicted_R	0.388	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.404	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.007
predicted_SO	0.749	-0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.318	-0.001
predicted_H	0.751	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.118	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.022
predicted_R	0.377	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.392	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.386	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.752	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.2667	0.3889	0.4667	0.2667	0.0667	0.2000	0.2000	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.2258	0.3333	0.4194	0.2258	0.0645	0.1290	0.1613	0.1935
season	0.60	32	-	110.000	24.000	8.000	4.000	12.000	12.000	9.000	25.000	0.2182	0.2833	0.4000	0.2182	0.0364	0.1091	0.0818	0.2273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3850
predicted_AVG	0.2323
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_H	0.7860
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_OBP	0.3126
predicted_R	0.4080
predicted_RBI	0.4400
predicted_SLG	0.4127
predicted_SO	0.6990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1500	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4380	3.3850	3.4173	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2323	0.2394	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2810	0.3790	0.3194	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7860	0.7641	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1520	0.1204	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3126	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.4080	0.3879	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4400	0.4035	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4127	0.4019	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7810	0.6990	0.7489	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	2
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1905

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.585	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.585	3.000	-0.585	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.333	-0.190	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.512	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.512	0.000	0.488	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.683	1.000	-0.683	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.333	-0.037	-0.083
predicted_R	0.537	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.537	0.000	0.463	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.340	0.333	-0.340	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.927	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.927	0.000	0.073	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.585	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.512	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.537	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.927	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.628	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.443	-0.069
predicted_H	0.736	-0.064
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.027
predicted_R	0.496	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.416	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.953	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.628	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.441	-0.002
predicted_H	0.723	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.122	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.008
predicted_R	0.482	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.404	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.325	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.957	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.1053	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.0789	0.1220	0.1579	0.0790	0.0263	0.0526	0.0526	0.2895
season	0.60	41	-	147.000	28.000	4.000	6.000	20.000	22.000	21.000	38.000	0.1905	0.2865	0.3401	0.1905	0.0408	0.1361	0.1429	0.2585

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6900
predicted_AVG	0.1739
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	0.6420
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.2395
predicted_R	0.4360
predicted_RBI	0.4240
predicted_SLG	0.3131
predicted_SO	0.9910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0980	0.0770	0.0895	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5850	3.6900	3.6277	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1739	0.2155	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5120	0.3430	0.4433	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.6420	0.7358	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1440	0.1238	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2395	0.2784	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5370	0.4360	0.4960	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4240	0.4157	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3131	0.3617	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9270	0.9910	0.9530	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2436

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.805	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.805	5.000	0.195	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.439	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.927	0.000	-0.927	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.366	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.288	0.000	-0.288	0.000
predicted_SO	1.098	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.098	3.000	-1.098	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.805	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.439	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.366	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.098	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.797	-0.008
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.438	-0.001
predicted_H	0.850	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.072	-0.038
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.002
predicted_R	0.357	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.395	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.347	-0.048
predicted_SO	1.112	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.797	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.436	-0.002
predicted_H	0.835	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.071	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.006
predicted_R	0.347	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.384	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.317	-0.030
predicted_SO	1.117	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.805

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.2105	0.2105	0.1053	0.1579	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	12.000	0.1892	0.2683	0.2162	0.1892	0.0541	0.1081	0.3243
season	0.60	41	-	156.000	38.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	15.000	18.000	45.000	0.2436	0.3202	0.2885	0.2436	0.0897	0.1154	0.2885

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7850
predicted_AVG	0.2287
predicted_BB	0.4370
predicted_H	0.8650
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.3088
predicted_R	0.3450
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.2781
predicted_SO	1.1320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.1060	0.1155	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8050	3.7850	3.7968	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2287	0.2378	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4390	0.4370	0.4382	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8650	0.8502	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0170	0.0721	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3088	0.3065	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3660	0.3450	0.3574	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.3450	0.3953	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2781	0.3473	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0980	1.1320	1.1119	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SD
teamID	23

Xander Bogaerts (593428) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2517

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.073	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.683	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.683	3.000	0.317	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.498	0.750
predicted_BB	0.415	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.415	0.000	-0.415	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.927	0.000	2.073	3.000
predicted_HR	0.100	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	1.854	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.000	0.423	0.750
predicted_R	0.463	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.463	0.000	0.537	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	0.000	2.488	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	2.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.000	1.859	2.250
predicted_SO	0.683	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.683	0.000	-0.683	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.683	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.415	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.463	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.683	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.090	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.679	-0.004
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.377	-0.038
predicted_H	0.808	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.005
predicted_R	0.477	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.399	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.703	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.090	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.679	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.375	-0.002
predicted_H	0.793	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.012
predicted_R	0.463	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.388	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.324	-0.054
predicted_SO	0.706	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.1111	0.0556	0.1944
season	0.60	41	-	151.000	38.000	3.000	6.000	21.000	19.000	17.000	28.000	0.2517	0.3274	0.3907	0.2517	0.0397	0.1391	0.1126	0.1854

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6720
predicted_AVG	0.2311
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_H	0.8480
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.2933
predicted_R	0.4980
predicted_RBI	0.3980
predicted_SLG	0.3529
predicted_SO	0.7320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0730	0.1150	0.0900	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6830	3.6720	3.6785	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2311	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4150	0.3210	0.3769	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8480	0.8076	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1090	0.1037	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2933	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4630	0.4980	0.4772	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3980	0.3992	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3529	0.3779	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6830	0.7320	0.7029	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	593428
playerID	593428
playerName	Xander Bogaerts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Sung-Mun Song (823550) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 5

All-history rows before 20260515: 5

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.400	1.000	1.600	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.083	0.250
predicted_BB	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.500	-0.036	-0.250
predicted_R	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_SO	0.833	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.713	0.213
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.400	-0.017
predicted_H	0.544	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.002
predicted_R	0.610	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.303	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.383	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.842	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.713	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.041
predicted_BB	0.398	-0.002
predicted_H	0.534	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.004
predicted_R	0.592	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.294	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.040
predicted_SO	0.846	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.20	5	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.3333
season	0.60	5	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1970
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.3520
predicted_AVG	0.2193
predicted_BB	0.3490
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.2991
predicted_R	0.5650
predicted_RBI	0.4620
predicted_SLG	0.3485
predicted_SO	0.8700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2080	0.1970	0.2052	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.3520	2.7135	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2193	0.2378	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.3490	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.7350	0.5439	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0730	0.0633	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2991	0.3035	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.5650	0.6100	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.4620	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3485	0.3833	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.8700	0.8423	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	823550
playerID	823550
playerName	Sung-Mun Song
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SD
teamID	23

Jackson Merrill (701538) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2152

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.950	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.950	4.000	0.050	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.000	-0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.850	0.000	-0.850	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.000	-0.087	0.200
predicted_R	0.550	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.550	0.000	0.450	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_SO	1.100	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.100	3.000	0.900	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.950	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.550	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.100	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.927	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.394	0.019
predicted_H	0.868	-0.052
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.106	-0.014
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.008
predicted_R	0.490	-0.060
predicted_RBI	0.421	-0.049
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.034
predicted_SO	1.135	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.927	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.392	-0.002
predicted_H	0.853	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.104	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.009
predicted_R	0.476	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.409	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.017
predicted_SO	1.139	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.950

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	0.1053	0.2273	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.1579	0.4210
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	13.000	0.2308	0.3182	0.3590	0.2308	0.0256	0.0769	0.1282	0.3333
season	0.60	40	-	158.000	34.000	8.000	4.000	18.000	22.000	15.000	44.000	0.2152	0.2874	0.3418	0.2152	0.0253	0.1139	0.0949	0.2785

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8930
predicted_AVG	0.2033
predicted_BB	0.4220
predicted_H	0.7920
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.2850
predicted_R	0.4030
predicted_RBI	0.3490
predicted_SLG	0.3121
predicted_SO	1.1850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1620	0.1845	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9500	3.8930	3.9268	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2033	0.2274	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.4220	0.3941	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.7920	0.8679	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.0860	0.1062	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2850	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5500	0.4030	0.4902	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.3490	0.4208	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3121	0.3613	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1000	1.1850	1.1346	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	701538
playerID	701538
playerName	Jackson Merrill
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Miguel Andujar (609280) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 30

All-history rows before 20260515: 30

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2946

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.733	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.733	4.000	0.267	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.250	-0.295	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.100	1.000	-1.100	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.250	-0.319	-0.250
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.491	0.500	-0.491	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.767	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.767	1.000	1.233	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.733	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.100	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.767	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.060	-0.007
predicted_AB	3.752	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.007
predicted_BB	0.102	0.002
predicted_H	0.873	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.114	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.008
predicted_R	0.336	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.030
predicted_SO	0.815	0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	0.000
predicted_3B	0.060	0.000
predicted_AB	3.752	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.102	-0.000
predicted_H	0.857	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.112	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.048
predicted_R	0.326	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.400	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.429	0.004
predicted_SO	0.818	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.4737	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	10.000	0.2308	0.2308	0.5128	0.2308	0.0513	0.1026	0.0000	0.2564
season	0.60	30	-	112.000	33.000	9.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	3.000	23.000	0.2946	0.3190	0.4911	0.2946	0.0268	0.1071	0.0268	0.2054

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2910
predicted_3B	0.0500
predicted_AB	3.7830
predicted_AVG	0.2607
predicted_BB	0.1060
predicted_H	0.9860
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.2849
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.4150
predicted_SLG	0.4719
predicted_SO	0.8900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.2910	0.2965	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.0500	0.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7330	3.7830	3.7525	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2607	0.2505	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1000	0.1060	0.1023	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9860	0.8725	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1360	0.1140	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2849	0.2972	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3400	0.3357	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4150	0.4119	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4719	0.4250	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7670	0.8900	0.8150	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	609280
playerID	609280
playerName	Miguel Andujar
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Ramón Laureano (657656) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 36

All-history rows before 20260515: 36

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2206

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	4.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.250	-0.221	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.250	-0.303	-0.250
predicted_R	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.250	-0.390	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.306	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.306	2.000	0.694	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.306	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.045	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.667	-0.111
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.462	0.018
predicted_H	0.736	-0.074
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.107	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.009
predicted_R	0.423	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.380	-0.030
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.302	-0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.460	-0.002
predicted_H	0.723	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.287	-0.009
predicted_R	0.411	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.369	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.024
predicted_SO	1.307	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	0.0714	0.2353	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.2143	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	14.000	0.0968	0.2432	0.1935	0.0968	0.0323	0.0323	0.1935	0.4516
season	0.60	36	-	136.000	30.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	19.000	17.000	16.000	47.000	0.2206	0.3032	0.3897	0.2206	0.0368	0.1397	0.1177	0.3456

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0790
predicted_3B	0.0280
predicted_AB	3.5030
predicted_AVG	0.1786
predicted_BB	0.4890
predicted_H	0.6260
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_OBP	0.2821
predicted_R	0.3510
predicted_RBI	0.3360
predicted_SLG	0.3043
predicted_SO	1.2950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0790	0.0981	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0280	0.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	3.5030	3.6673	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1786	0.2177	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.4890	0.4621	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.6260	0.7359	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1020	0.1068	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2821	0.2958	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.3510	0.4233	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.3360	0.3802	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3043	0.3585	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3060	1.2950	1.3016	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	657656
playerID	657656
playerName	Ramón Laureano
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Freddy Fermin (666023) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 23

All-history rows before 20260515: 23

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1757

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.217	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.217	4.000	0.783	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.250	0.074	0.000
predicted_BB	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.565	1.000	0.435	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.250	-0.017	0.000
predicted_R	0.478	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.478	0.000	0.522	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.230	0.250	0.020	0.000
predicted_SO	0.739	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.739	0.000	0.261	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.217	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.348	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.478	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.739	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.305	0.088
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.311	-0.037
predicted_H	0.653	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.061	-0.019
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.017
predicted_R	0.444	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.271	-0.049
predicted_SLG	0.347	-0.048
predicted_SO	0.725	-0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.305	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.309	-0.001
predicted_H	0.641	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.025
predicted_R	0.431	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.263	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.298	-0.049
predicted_SO	0.728	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1765	0.1944	0.2059	0.1765	0.0294	0.0294	0.1765
season	0.60	23	-	74.000	13.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	8.000	17.000	0.1757	0.2674	0.2297	0.1757	0.0405	0.1081	0.2297

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1400
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4510
predicted_AVG	0.2003
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_H	0.6910
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2597
predicted_R	0.3880
predicted_RBI	0.1880
predicted_SLG	0.2677
predicted_SO	0.7010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1400	0.1613	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2170	3.4510	3.3046	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2003	0.2276	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3480	0.2480	0.3106	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6910	0.6528	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0290	0.0609	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2597	0.2880	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4780	0.3880	0.4443	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.1880	0.2706	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2677	0.3473	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7390	0.7010	0.7248	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	666023
playerID	666023
playerName	Freddy Fermin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SD
teamID	23

Randy Vásquez (681190) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.625	0.000	0.375	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.875	1.000	0.125	1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.875	6.000	0.125	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.425	5.000	-0.225	0.200
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.250	6.000	-0.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.200	13.000	24.000	9.000	23.000	3.000	4.3875	1.2375	0.4875	0.9000	0.3375	0.8625	0.1125
last_10	0.35	8	44.100	15.000	39.000	13.000	42.000	4.000	3.0451	1.1729	0.3383	0.8797	0.2932	0.9474	0.0902
season	0.20	8	44.100	15.000	39.000	13.000	42.000	4.000	3.0451	1.1729	0.3383	0.8797	0.2932	0.9474	0.0902

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9110
predicted_ER	2.4880
predicted_ERA	4.0510
predicted_H	5.0350
predicted_HR	0.6330
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.0650
predicted_WHIP	1.2568

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.9110	1.9566	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.4880	2.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0510	4.0510	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.0350	5.0171	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6330	0.8211	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	5.0650	3.4942	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2568	1.2568	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	5
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	94

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.05
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	681190
playerID	681190
playerName	Randy Vásquez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.222	0.000	-0.222	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.972	0.100	0.028	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.444	0.000	-1.444	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	6.3529	1.0588	0.7059	0.8823	0.1765	1.5882	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	5.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	2.000	3.8571	0.9429	0.4286	0.6000	0.3429	1.5429	0.1714
season	0.20	18	21.000	13.000	22.000	5.000	26.000	2.000	5.5714	1.2857	0.6190	1.0476	0.2381	1.2381	0.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3470
predicted_ER	0.5670
predicted_ERA	4.7090
predicted_H	0.9570
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3070
predicted_WHIP	1.2036

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3470	0.1457	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5670	0.8182	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7090	4.7090	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9570	0.9819	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1540	0.6449	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3070	1.1289	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2036	1.2036	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	1
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	1
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 14

All-history rows before 20260515: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.143	0.000	-0.143
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.571	1.000	0.429
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.879	1.000	0.121
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.357	0.000	-0.357

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.6000	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.7419	0.8710	0.1935	0.6774	0.1935	0.4839	0.0968
season	0.20	14	13.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	1.3846	0.8462	0.1538	0.6154	0.2308	0.3846	0.0769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_ER	0.3410
predicted_ERA	3.0678
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7470
predicted_WHIP	1.1547

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3210	0.1193	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3410	0.1267	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0678	3.0678	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8340	0.9383	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1020	0.0379	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7470	0.2775	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1547	1.1547	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.38
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.263	0.000	0.737	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.421	1.000	-0.421	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.011	1.000	-0.011	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	2.105	2.000	-2.105	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.3750	0.5625	2.2500
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	7.000	4.000	17.000	1.7419	1.0645	0.1935	0.6774	0.3871	1.6452
season	0.20	19	19.200	2.000	8.000	5.000	40.000	0.9153	0.6610	0.1017	0.4068	0.2542	2.0339

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4070
predicted_ER	0.3000
predicted_ERA	2.7023
predicted_H	0.7410
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.4140
predicted_WHIP	1.1477

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4070	0.7551	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3000	0.1239	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7023	2.7023	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7410	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0720	0.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4140	1.1710	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1477	1.1477	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.92
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jeremiah Estrada (669093) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 12

All-history rows before 20260515: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.583	1.000	-0.583	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.100	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	0.000	-1.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	1.5882	0.5294	0.1765	0.3529	0.1765	1.4118	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	0.8182	0.7273	0.0909	0.4546	0.2727	1.0909	0.0909
season	0.20	12	12.200	5.000	7.000	6.000	16.000	1.000	3.5526	1.0263	0.3947	0.5526	0.4737	1.2632	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1910
predicted_ER	0.2080
predicted_ERA	3.3637
predicted_H	0.4280
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5920
predicted_WHIP	1.1120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1910	0.0705	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2080	0.0768	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3637	3.3637	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4280	0.1579	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0262	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5920	0.8494	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1120	1.1120	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.55
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669093
playerID	669093
playerName	Jeremiah Estrada
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Home Team: SEA

Brendan Donovan (680977) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 22

All-history rows before 20260515: 22

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2785

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	1.000	0.818	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	1.000	-0.045	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.591	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.591	5.000	1.409	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.600	0.122	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	3.000	1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.600	0.017	-0.200
predicted_R	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.409	1.000	-0.409	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.468	1.200	0.132	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.591	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.591	0.000	-0.591	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.591	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.409	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.409	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.591	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.002
predicted_3B	0.053	0.008
predicted_AB	3.680	0.089
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.006
predicted_BB	0.388	-0.021
predicted_H	0.896	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.148	-
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.014
predicted_R	0.411	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.389	-0.041
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.008
predicted_SO	0.582	-0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.389	0.001
predicted_H	0.905	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.148	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.001
predicted_R	0.418	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.395	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.007
predicted_SO	0.580	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.2174	0.2500	0.3478	0.2174	0.0000	0.0000	0.0435	0.0435
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.0790
season	0.60	22	-	79.000	22.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	9.000	9.000	13.000	0.2785	0.3830	0.4684	0.2785	0.0380	0.1013	0.1139	0.1646

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0660
predicted_AB	3.8250
predicted_AVG	0.2585
predicted_BB	0.3540
predicted_H	0.9890
predicted_HBP	0.1480
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.3411
predicted_R	0.4150
predicted_RBI	0.3220
predicted_SLG	0.4171
predicted_SO	0.5660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1880	0.1843	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0660	0.0530	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5910	3.8250	3.6797	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2585	0.2495	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4090	0.3540	0.3881	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9890	0.8965	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1480	0.1480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0960	0.1047	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3411	0.3187	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4090	0.4150	0.4113	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.3220	0.3890	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4171	0.4034	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5910	0.5660	0.5815	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	680977
playerID	680977
playerName	Brendan Donovan
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 45

All-history rows before 20260515: 45

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3006

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	0.756	1.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.622	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.622	3.000	-0.622	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.000	0.366	0.667
predicted_BB	0.422	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.422	2.000	0.578	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.089	0.000	0.911	2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.400	0.361	0.350
predicted_R	0.711	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.711	1.000	0.289	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.356	0.000	-0.356	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.454	0.000	0.546	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.622	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.422	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.711	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.005
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.657	0.035
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.039
predicted_BB	0.405	-0.017
predicted_H	0.982	0.192
predicted_HBP	0.193	-
predicted_HR	0.106	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.049
predicted_R	0.746	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.422	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.046
predicted_SO	1.013	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.657	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.406	0.001
predicted_H	0.990	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.193	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.010
predicted_R	0.758	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.429	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.436	-0.005
predicted_SO	1.010	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	0.4737	0.5652	0.7368	0.4737	0.0526	0.2105	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	15.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	3.000	11.000	0.3947	0.4773	0.5263	0.3947	0.0263	0.1053	0.0790	0.2895
season	0.60	45	-	163.000	49.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	16.000	32.000	19.000	45.000	0.3006	0.3895	0.4540	0.3006	0.0245	0.0982	0.1166	0.2761

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2550
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7070
predicted_AVG	0.3390
predicted_BB	0.3800
predicted_H	1.2570
predicted_HBP	0.1930
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_OBP	0.4235
predicted_R	0.7970
predicted_RBI	0.4540
predicted_SLG	0.5072
predicted_SO	1.0320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.2550	0.2485	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0140	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6220	3.7070	3.6569	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3390	0.2830	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4220	0.3800	0.4048	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	1.2570	0.9815	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1930	0.1930	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1140	0.1057	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.4235	0.3536	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7110	0.7970	0.7463	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4540	0.4221	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5072	0.4410	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0320	1.0131	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Jhonny Pereda (640902) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 2

All-history rows before 20260515: 2

System season_avg: 0.4000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.500	2.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.500	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	2.500	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.721	0.221
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.004
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.584	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.003
predicted_R	0.501	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000
predicted_SO	0.560	0.060

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.721	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.046	0.000
predicted_H	0.589	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.068	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.230	-0.078
predicted_R	0.509	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.281	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.304	-0.091
predicted_SO	0.558	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	2	-	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	2	-	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	0.2000
season	0.60	2	-	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.6110
predicted_AVG	0.2662
predicted_BB	0.2320
predicted_H	0.9610
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.3189
predicted_R	0.5070
predicted_RBI	0.3850
predicted_SLG	0.3953
predicted_SO	0.8010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1460	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.6110	2.7214	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2662	0.2484	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2320	0.0462	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.9610	0.5839	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0990	0.0678	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3189	0.3078	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5070	0.5014	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3850	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3953	0.3951	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.8010	0.5600	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.4

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	640902
playerID	640902
playerName	Jhonny Pereda
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2470

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.119	1.000	-0.119	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.952	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.952	4.000	-0.952	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.086	0.083
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	1.000	0.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.119	0.000	0.881	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.400	-0.061	-0.150
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.476	0.000	1.524	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.367	0.500	0.966	0.833
predicted_SO	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	2.000	-0.714	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.952	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.036
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.957	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.008
predicted_BB	0.372	0.016
predicted_H	0.953	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.011
predicted_R	0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.415	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.393	-0.003
predicted_SO	0.721	0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.957	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.374	0.001
predicted_H	0.962	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.111	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.008
predicted_R	0.291	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.422	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.367	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.718	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.952

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3478	0.3500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.3415	0.4000	0.4878	0.3415	0.0244	0.0732	0.0976	0.1463
season	0.60	42	-	166.000	41.000	5.000	5.000	20.000	12.000	15.000	30.000	0.2470	0.3115	0.3675	0.2470	0.0301	0.1205	0.0904	0.1807

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2060
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9640
predicted_AVG	0.2633
predicted_BB	0.3950
predicted_H	1.0440
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.3321
predicted_R	0.2870
predicted_RBI	0.3650
predicted_SLG	0.3890
predicted_SO	0.7310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1190	0.2060	0.1546	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9520	3.9640	3.9569	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2633	0.2519	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.3950	0.3725	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0440	0.9530	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.0960	0.1102	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3321	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.2870	0.2864	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.3650	0.4153	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3890	0.3925	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7310	0.7209	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Luke Raley (670042) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 32

All-history rows before 20260515: 32

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2762

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.281	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.281	5.000	-0.281	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.400	-0.276	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.906	2.000	-0.906	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.281	1.000	-0.281	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.400	-0.089	-0.150
predicted_R	0.531	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.531	2.000	-0.531	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.781	3.000	-0.781	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.590	1.000	-0.590	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.219	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.219	0.000	-1.219	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.281	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.219	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.531	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.219	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.025	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.288	0.007
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.015
predicted_BB	0.242	0.023
predicted_H	0.784	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.103	-
predicted_HR	0.177	0.087
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.020
predicted_R	0.580	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.542	0.192
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.082
predicted_SO	1.160	-0.059

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.288	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.243	0.001
predicted_H	0.791	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.103	0.000
predicted_HR	0.178	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.032
predicted_R	0.589	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.453	-0.024
predicted_SO	1.156	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4444	0.7333	0.3333	0.1333	0.2667	0.1333	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	14.000	8.000	3.000	11.000	0.3000	0.3824	0.8000	0.3000	0.1667	0.4667	0.1000	0.3667
season	0.60	32	-	105.000	29.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	25.000	17.000	7.000	39.000	0.2762	0.3391	0.5905	0.2762	0.0857	0.2381	0.0667	0.3714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.2990
predicted_AVG	0.2823
predicted_BB	0.2780
predicted_H	0.9310
predicted_HBP	0.1030
predicted_HR	0.3130
predicted_OBP	0.3557
predicted_R	0.6570
predicted_RBI	0.8420
predicted_SLG	0.6058
predicted_SO	1.0680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0920	0.1121	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0170	0.0255	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2810	3.2990	3.2880	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2823	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2190	0.2780	0.2420	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.9310	0.7839	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1030	0.1030	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.3130	0.1769	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3557	0.3247	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5310	0.6570	0.5801	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.8420	0.5416	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.6058	0.4771	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2190	1.0680	1.1602	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670042
playerID	670042
playerName	Luke Raley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 45

All-history rows before 20260515: 45

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2611

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	5.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.000	-0.061	0.200
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.044	0.000	-0.044	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.000	-0.125	0.200
predicted_R	0.489	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.489	0.000	-0.489	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.428	0.000	-0.228	0.200
predicted_SO	1.044	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.044	2.000	-0.044	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.489	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.044	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.032	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.319	-0.014
predicted_H	0.928	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.146	0.026
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.003
predicted_R	0.484	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.444	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.410	0.015
predicted_SO	1.088	0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.032	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.321	0.001
predicted_H	0.937	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.147	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.013
predicted_R	0.492	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.451	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.395	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.085	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.1818	0.2174	0.4091	0.1818	0.0454	0.0909	0.0454	0.3636
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	13.000	0.2381	0.2889	0.5000	0.2381	0.0714	0.0952	0.0714	0.3095
season	0.60	45	-	180.000	47.000	9.000	7.000	20.000	22.000	15.000	47.000	0.2611	0.3249	0.4278	0.2611	0.0389	0.1111	0.0833	0.2611

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2300
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0770
predicted_AVG	0.2411
predicted_BB	0.3000
predicted_H	0.9830
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1830
predicted_OBP	0.2974
predicted_R	0.4780
predicted_RBI	0.4350
predicted_SLG	0.4327
predicted_SO	1.1520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2300	0.2123	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0770	4.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2411	0.2428	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3000	0.3194	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9830	0.9283	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1830	0.1459	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2974	0.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4890	0.4780	0.4845	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4350	0.4438	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4327	0.4105	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0440	1.1520	1.0884	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

Dominic Canzone (686527) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 29

All-history rows before 20260515: 29

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2683

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.828	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.828	4.000	1.172	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.250	-0.018	0.000
predicted_BB	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.759	1.000	0.241	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.138	0.000	0.862	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	-0.083	0.000
predicted_R	0.448	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.448	1.000	0.552	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.586	0.000	0.414	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.250	0.500	0.750
predicted_SO	0.724	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.724	0.000	-0.724	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.828	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.276	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.448	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.724	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.903	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.002
predicted_BB	0.276	-0.000
predicted_H	0.664	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.023
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.002
predicted_R	0.449	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.449	0.139
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.019
predicted_SO	0.755	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.903	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.277	0.001
predicted_H	0.670	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.104	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.009
predicted_R	0.456	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.457	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.413	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.753	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2143	0.2500	0.4286	0.2143	0.0714	0.4286	0.0714	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	26.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.2308	0.3000	0.3846	0.2308	0.0385	0.2308	0.1154	0.3462
season	0.60	29	-	82.000	22.000	7.000	4.000	17.000	13.000	8.000	21.000	0.2683	0.3333	0.5000	0.2683	0.0488	0.2073	0.0976	0.2561

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.0250
predicted_AVG	0.2485
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.3089
predicted_R	0.4500
predicted_RBI	0.6780
predicted_SLG	0.4460
predicted_SO	0.8070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2410	0.1700	0.2141	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8280	3.0250	2.9026	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2485	0.2457	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2760	0.2750	0.2756	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7520	0.6638	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1410	0.1031	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3089	0.3065	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4480	0.4500	0.4488	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.6780	0.4493	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4460	0.4143	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7240	0.8070	0.7554	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	686527
playerID	686527
playerName	Dominic Canzone
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 45

All-history rows before 20260515: 45

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2484

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	1.000	-0.156	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.489	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.489	3.000	-0.489	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.333	-0.248	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	1.000	-0.867	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.500	-0.078	-0.250
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.533	2.000	-0.533	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.363	0.667	-0.363	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.911	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.911	0.000	0.089	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.489	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.911	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	0.015
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.502	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.340	0.007
predicted_H	0.713	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.087	-
predicted_HR	0.074	-0.016
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.004
predicted_R	0.384	-0.060
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.070
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.880	-0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.502	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.342	0.001
predicted_H	0.719	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.087	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.025
predicted_R	0.390	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.437	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.877	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.1667	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	10.000	0.1515	0.2821	0.2424	0.1515	0.0000	0.1515	0.1212	0.3030
season	0.60	45	-	157.000	39.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	24.000	20.000	15.000	41.000	0.2484	0.3277	0.3631	0.2484	0.0191	0.1529	0.0955	0.2611

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1930
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5200
predicted_AVG	0.2077
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_H	0.7310
predicted_HBP	0.0870
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.2948
predicted_R	0.2970
predicted_RBI	0.5310
predicted_SLG	0.3134
predicted_SO	0.8360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1930	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4890	3.5200	3.5016	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2077	0.2292	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3510	0.3403	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7310	0.7126	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0870	0.0870	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0510	0.0741	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2948	0.3008	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.2970	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.5310	0.4297	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3134	0.3617	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9110	0.8360	0.8804	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

J.P. Crawford (641487) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 36

All-history rows before 20260515: 36

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2171

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.583	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.583	5.000	-0.583	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.400	-0.217	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	2.000	-0.778	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.400	-0.115	-0.150
predicted_R	0.611	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.611	1.000	-0.611	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.600	-0.364	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.583	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.778	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.611	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.646	0.063
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.726	-0.052
predicted_H	0.817	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.034	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.029
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.020
predicted_R	0.610	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.454	0.064
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.007
predicted_SO	0.659	-0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.646	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.729	0.003
predicted_H	0.825	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.034	0.000
predicted_HR	0.131	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.030
predicted_R	0.620	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.462	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.367	-0.035
predicted_SO	0.657	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.2857	0.3478	0.4762	0.2857	0.0476	0.1905	0.0952	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	8.000	6.000	0.2432	0.3778	0.5135	0.2432	0.0811	0.2162	0.2162	0.1622
season	0.60	36	-	129.000	28.000	4.000	5.000	15.000	22.000	28.000	24.000	0.2171	0.3648	0.3643	0.2170	0.0388	0.1163	0.2170	0.1860

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7400
predicted_AVG	0.2373
predicted_BB	0.6500
predicted_H	0.8870
predicted_HBP	0.0340
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_OBP	0.3547
predicted_R	0.6080
predicted_RBI	0.5490
predicted_SLG	0.4130
predicted_SO	0.6470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1340	0.1203	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5830	3.7400	3.6464	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2373	0.2413	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7780	0.6500	0.7263	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8870	0.8172	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0340	0.0340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1730	0.1295	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3547	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6110	0.6080	0.6098	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.5490	0.4542	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4130	0.4023	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6470	0.6589	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	641487
playerID	641487
playerName	J.P. Crawford
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SEA
teamID	25

Emerson Hancock (676106) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.125	3.000	-1.125	-3.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.125	5.000	0.875	-2.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	4.875	5.000	1.125	1.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.900	6.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	6.250	4.000	-0.250	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	13.000	29.000	6.000	31.000	7.000	3.9000	1.1667	0.4333	0.9667	0.2000	1.0333	0.2333
last_10	0.35	8	47.200	17.000	39.000	9.000	50.000	8.000	3.2098	1.0070	0.3566	0.8182	0.1888	1.0490	0.1678
season	0.20	8	47.200	17.000	39.000	9.000	50.000	8.000	3.2098	1.0070	0.3566	0.8182	0.1888	1.0490	0.1678

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6050
predicted_ER	2.5860
predicted_ERA	3.8787
predicted_H	5.5620
predicted_HR	1.0820
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	6.0480
predicted_WHIP	1.1946

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.6050	0.7824	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.5860	3.3107	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8787	3.8787	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	5.5620	5.7865	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	3.0000	1.0820	2.0650	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	6.0480	6.0234	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1946	1.1946	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	6
HR	2
BF	24
Pitches	99

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	7
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	676106
playerID	676106
playerName	Emerson Hancock
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	0.094	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.611	3.000	0.389	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	1.2000	0.2000	1.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	18.000	2.000	2.7000	1.0000	0.3000	0.8000	0.2000	1.8000	0.2000
season	0.20	18	17.000	10.000	16.000	7.000	29.000	3.000	5.2941	1.3529	0.5882	0.9412	0.4118	1.7059	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_ER	0.4410
predicted_ERA	3.9652
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2910
predicted_WHIP	1.2923

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3250	0.1293	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4410	0.1755	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9652	3.9652	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9670	0.3848	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1560	0.0621	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2910	1.7179	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2923	1.2923	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cooper Criswell (681867) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 15

All-history rows before 20260515: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.267	1.000	-0.267	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.153	0.200	-0.153	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.067	0.000	0.933	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.2500	0.2500	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	1.8000	0.7000	0.2000	0.6000	0.1000	0.8000	0.1000
season	0.20	15	18.000	4.000	12.000	4.000	16.000	3.000	2.0000	0.8889	0.2222	0.6667	0.2222	0.8889	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_ER	0.3080
predicted_ERA	2.8749
predicted_H	0.7120
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8600
predicted_WHIP	1.0398

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2920	0.1179	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3080	0.1244	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8749	2.8749	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7120	0.8837	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8600	1.5397	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0398	1.0398	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	681867
playerID	681867
playerName	Cooper Criswell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 22

All-history rows before 20260515: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.318	0.000	1.682	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.227	0.000	1.773	2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.818	1.000	0.182	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.755	0.200	0.245	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.773	0.000	-0.773	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.5000	0.4286	1.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	10.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	2.8929	1.2857	0.3214	1.0714	0.2143	0.8571	0.1071
season	0.20	22	20.100	5.000	18.000	7.000	17.000	1.000	2.2131	1.2295	0.2459	0.8852	0.3443	0.8361	0.0492

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_ER	0.4590
predicted_ERA	4.1346
predicted_H	1.0680
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9550
predicted_WHIP	1.4293

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3610	1.3175	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4590	1.3583	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1346	4.1346	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0680	1.0283	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1360	0.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9550	0.3977	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4293	1.4293	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.21
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

20260515_SF@OAK

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.535378, "home_win_probability": 0.535378, "away_win_probability": 0.464622, "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 5 OAK", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 5 OAK", "confidence": 0.535378, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 3 - 5 OAK", "winner": "OAK"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SF 2 - 6 OAK", "winner": "OAK"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SF 3 - 5 OAK	OAK	0.535	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SF 2 - 6 OAK	OAK	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SF	5-5	0.500	4	4.90	-9	1L	average	average
Home OAK	5-5	0.500	4.80	3.70	11	1L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away SF	18-25	0.419	-42	-0.977	True
Home OAK	22-21	0.512	-5	-0.116	True
Signal	-	-	0.861	1	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SF	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target OAK	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SF	35	9	1	0	0	0	8
Player finalized OAK	34	9	4	0	4	3	9
Player model fractional SF	34.23	7.74	3.17	0.89	3.67	2.08	8.27
Player model fractional OAK	32.49	7.50	4.32	1.07	4.02	4.26	8.05
Simulation box SF	32	5	2	0	2	2	4
Simulation box OAK	35	11	6	2	6	1	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SF	Starter	Tyler Mahle	5	5	4	9	1	5.01	1.41	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Caleb Kilian	1	0	1	1	0	3.38	1.36	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Joel Peguero	1	0	1	0	0	3.76	1.22	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Matt Gage	0.20	0	0	0	0	3.16	1.30	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Keaton Winn	0.10	1	1	1	0	3.27	1.09	True
Home OAK	Starter	Aaron Civale	5.20	1	4	4	2	3.43	1.47	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Joel Kuhnel	1	0	0	0	0	4.21	1.22	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Scott Barlow	1	0	0	1	0	2.70	1.01	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Hogan Harris	0.20	0	0	0	0	3.64	1.77	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Mark Leiter Jr.	0.20	1	0	0	0	6.26	1.39	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SF

Luis Arraez (650333) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3025

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	3.951	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.951	4.000	0.049	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.198	0.500
predicted_BB	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.195	0.000	0.805	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.000	0.161	0.500
predicted_R	0.390	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.390	0.000	0.610	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.341	0.000	0.659	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.000	0.130	0.500
predicted_SO	0.171	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.049	-
predicted_AB	3.951	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.244	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.390	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.171	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.040	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.962	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.016
predicted_BB	0.294	0.050
predicted_H	0.979	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.079	-0.041
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.015
predicted_R	0.405	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.402	-0.048
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.198	0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.962	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.291	-0.003
predicted_H	0.964	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.077	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.025
predicted_R	0.394	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.391	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.200	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=23.0, weight=0.174, BvP AVG=0.174)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.951

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	0.2381	0.3600	0.2381	0.2381	0.0476	0.1905	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.3750	0.3000	0.0750	0.1000	0.0250
season	0.60	41	-	162.000	49.000	7.000	2.000	14.000	16.000	10.000	7.000	0.3025	0.3391	0.3704	0.3025	0.0864	0.0617	0.0432

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0270
predicted_AB	3.9790
predicted_AVG	0.2825
predicted_BB	0.3670
predicted_H	1.1240
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.3419
predicted_R	0.4270
predicted_RBI	0.3320
predicted_SLG	0.3522
predicted_SO	0.2370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1670	0.1694	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0490	0.0270	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9510	3.9790	3.9624	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2825	0.2597	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2440	0.3670	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.1240	0.9793	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.0190	0.0789	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3419	0.3200	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3900	0.4270	0.4051	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.3320	0.4020	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3522	0.3776	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1710	0.2370	0.1979	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	650333
playerID	650333
playerName	Luis Arraez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Jung Hoo Lee (808982) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2683

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.814	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.814	3.000	0.186	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.333	-0.018	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.023	1.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.070	1.000	-0.070	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.500	-0.066	-0.250
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	1.000	-0.419	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.349	2.000	-0.349	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.396	1.333	-0.146	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.512	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.814	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.512	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.005
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.909	0.095
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.005
predicted_BB	0.207	-0.026
predicted_H	0.956	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.122	-
predicted_HR	0.113	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.434	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.461	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.002
predicted_SO	0.533	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.909	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.205	-0.002
predicted_H	0.941	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.122	0.000
predicted_HR	0.111	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.027
predicted_R	0.422	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.448	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.538	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.814

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.2609	0.3200	0.4783	0.2609	0.0435	0.1739	0.0000	0.1304
last_10	0.20	10	-	44.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.2273	0.2609	0.3409	0.2273	0.0227	0.1136	0.0000	0.0909
season	0.60	43	-	164.000	44.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	15.000	18.000	10.000	22.000	0.2683	0.3164	0.3963	0.2683	0.0183	0.0915	0.0610	0.1341

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2460
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	4.0460
predicted_AVG	0.2565
predicted_BB	0.1700
predicted_H	1.0380
predicted_HBP	0.1220
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_OBP	0.3059
predicted_R	0.4570
predicted_RBI	0.4620
predicted_SLG	0.4006
predicted_SO	0.5640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.2460	0.2383	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0150	0.0197	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8140	4.0460	3.9086	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2565	0.2491	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.1700	0.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0380	0.9563	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1220	0.1220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1030	0.1131	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3059	0.3054	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.4570	0.4345	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4620	0.4608	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4006	0.3973	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5120	0.5640	0.5332	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	808982
playerID	808982
playerName	Jung Hoo Lee
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SF
teamID	24

Heliot Ramos (671218) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2642

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.878	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.878	4.000	-0.878	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.000	-0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.220	0.000	0.780	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.024	0.000	-1.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.000	-0.052	0.250
predicted_R	0.463	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.463	0.000	-0.463	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.463	0.000	-0.463	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.428	0.000	-0.428	0.000
predicted_SO	1.098	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.098	0.000	-0.098	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.878	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.220	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.463	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.098	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.313	0.020
predicted_3B	0.027	0.003
predicted_AB	3.904	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.004
predicted_BB	0.241	0.021
predicted_H	0.894	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.113	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.001
predicted_R	0.516	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.463	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.021
predicted_SO	1.018	-0.080

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.313	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.904	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.239	-0.002
predicted_H	0.879	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.111	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.270	-0.034
predicted_R	0.502	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.450	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.405	-0.011
predicted_SO	1.027	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.091)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.878

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.5238	0.2381	0.0476	0.1905	0.0952	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3023	0.4750	0.2500	0.0250	0.1250	0.0750	0.2000
season	0.60	41	-	159.000	42.000	12.000	1.000	4.000	19.000	19.000	9.000	45.000	0.2642	0.3018	0.4277	0.2641	0.0252	0.1195	0.0566	0.2830

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3420
predicted_3B	0.0320
predicted_AB	3.9410
predicted_AVG	0.2543
predicted_BB	0.2720
predicted_H	1.0020
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.3028
predicted_R	0.5940
predicted_RBI	0.5250
predicted_SLG	0.4470
predicted_SO	0.9000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2930	0.3420	0.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0320	0.0272	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8780	3.9410	3.9036	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2543	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2200	0.2720	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.0020	0.8939	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1180	0.1132	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3028	0.3041	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4630	0.5940	0.5162	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5250	0.4626	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4470	0.4161	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0980	0.9000	1.0176	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	671218
playerID	671218
playerName	Heliot Ramos
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 44

All-history rows before 20260515: 44

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2470

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	0.795	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.773	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.773	4.000	0.227	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.003	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.932	1.000	0.068	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.250	-0.044	0.000
predicted_R	0.364	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	0.000	0.591	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.392	0.250	0.108	0.250
predicted_SO	1.250	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	1.000	-1.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.773	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.033
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.757	-0.016
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.022
predicted_BB	0.306	0.033
predicted_H	0.939	0.119
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.020
predicted_R	0.426	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.433	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.045
predicted_SO	1.221	-0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.757	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.303	-0.003
predicted_H	0.924	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.129	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.023
predicted_R	0.415	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.421	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.413	-0.028
predicted_SO	1.232	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.182)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.4211	0.5000	0.7368	0.4210	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	13.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	0.3714	0.4250	0.7143	0.3714	0.0857	0.1714	0.1143	0.3429
season	0.60	44	-	166.000	41.000	9.000	5.000	18.000	16.000	12.000	55.000	0.2470	0.2944	0.3916	0.2470	0.0301	0.1084	0.0723	0.3313

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2850
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7340
predicted_AVG	0.2977
predicted_BB	0.3530
predicted_H	1.1120
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1630
predicted_OBP	0.3536
predicted_R	0.5170
predicted_RBI	0.4520
predicted_SLG	0.5065
predicted_SO	1.1780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.2850	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7730	3.7340	3.7571	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2977	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.3530	0.3057	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.1120	0.9392	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1630	0.1316	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3536	0.3248	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.5170	0.4265	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4520	0.4331	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5065	0.4405	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.1780	1.2206	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Daniel Susac (691740) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 5

All-history rows before 20260515: 5

System season_avg: 0.5790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.5789

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.5790

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	5.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.579	0.400	-0.579	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	2.200	2.000	-2.200	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.600	0.400	-0.600	-0.400
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.789	0.600	-0.789	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.400	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.200	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.364	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.169	-0.031
predicted_AB	3.800	-0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.037
predicted_BB	0.214	0.014
predicted_H	0.953	0.182
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.093	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.032
predicted_R	0.249	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.080
predicted_SLG	0.438	0.043
predicted_SO	0.475	0.075

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.364	0.000
predicted_3B	0.169	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.212	-0.002
predicted_H	0.937	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.091	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.051
predicted_R	0.242	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.457	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.503	0.065
predicted_SO	0.479	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.5789	0.6000	0.7895	0.5789	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.20	5	-	19.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.5789	0.6000	0.7895	0.5789	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053
season	0.60	5	-	19.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.5789	0.6000	0.7895	0.5789	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2680
predicted_3B	0.0880
predicted_AB	3.7980
predicted_AVG	0.3779
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_H	1.4350
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.4232
predicted_R	0.3770
predicted_RBI	0.6830
predicted_SLG	0.5525
predicted_SO	0.6730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.2680	0.3638	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.2000	0.0880	0.1693	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.7980	3.7995	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3779	0.2808	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2500	0.2137	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	1.4350	0.9525	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0730	0.0926	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.4232	0.3374	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3770	0.2486	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.6830	0.4704	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5525	0.4382	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4000	0.6730	0.4749	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.579

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260417_SF@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	691740
playerID	691740
playerName	Daniel Susac
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Bryce Eldridge (805811) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 6

All-history rows before 20260515: 6

System season_avg: 0.1000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_R	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	1.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	3.000	-0.333	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.434	0.101
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.169	0.002
predicted_H	0.706	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.107	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.022
predicted_R	0.223	0.056
predicted_RBI	0.358	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.014
predicted_SO	1.264	-0.069

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.434	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.168	-0.002
predicted_H	0.695	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.239	-0.044
predicted_R	0.216	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.348	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.304	-0.077
predicted_SO	1.276	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.1111	0.1111	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.3889
last_10	0.20	6	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.1000	0.1429	0.2500	0.1000	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	0.4000
season	0.60	6	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.1000	0.1429	0.2500	0.1000	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1030
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.6970
predicted_AVG	0.1884
predicted_BB	0.1750
predicted_H	0.6970
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_OBP	0.2276
predicted_R	0.3670
predicted_RBI	0.3540
predicted_SLG	0.3445
predicted_SO	1.0850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1030	0.0286	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.6970	3.4342	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1884	0.2285	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1750	0.1692	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.6970	0.7064	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1530	0.1075	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2276	0.2835	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.3670	0.2226	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3540	0.3583	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3445	0.3810	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.0850	1.2641	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.1

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	805811
playerID	805811
playerName	Bryce Eldridge
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Harrison Bader (664056) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 16

All-history rows before 20260515: 16

System season_avg: 0.1400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1404

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.562	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.562	2.000	-0.562	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.140	0.500	0.193	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.167	0.500	0.167	-0.167
predicted_R	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.281	2.000	0.053	-1.667
predicted_SO	1.188	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.188	1.000	-1.188	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.562	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.312	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.188	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.598	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.136	0.011
predicted_H	0.677	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.034
predicted_R	0.327	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.342	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.370	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.152	-0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.598	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.135	-0.001
predicted_H	0.666	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.215	-0.056
predicted_R	0.318	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.332	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.062
predicted_SO	1.162	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.3684	0.1579	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	12.000	0.1143	0.1351	0.2286	0.1143	0.0286	0.0571	0.0286	0.3429
season	0.60	16	-	57.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	19.000	0.1404	0.1667	0.2807	0.1404	0.0351	0.0702	0.0351	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1490
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6640
predicted_AVG	0.1737
predicted_BB	0.1570
predicted_H	0.6360
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1300
predicted_OBP	0.2075
predicted_R	0.3550
predicted_RBI	0.3080
predicted_SLG	0.3234
predicted_SO	1.0850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1490	0.1335	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5620	3.6640	3.5980	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1737	0.2192	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.1570	0.1363	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.6360	0.6774	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1300	0.1041	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2075	0.2706	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3120	0.3550	0.3272	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3080	0.3417	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3234	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1880	1.0850	1.1517	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	664056
playerID	664056
playerName	Harrison Bader
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Chapman (656305) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1450

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.810	3.000	-0.810	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.381	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.381	0.000	0.619	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.000	-0.053	0.250
predicted_R	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	1.048	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.048	2.000	-0.048	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.381	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.381	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.048	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.015
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.808	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.364	-0.017
predicted_H	0.821	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.080	-
predicted_HR	0.077	-0.033
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.009
predicted_R	0.335	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.400	-0.040
predicted_SLG	0.354	-0.041
predicted_SO	1.079	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.808	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.360	-0.003
predicted_H	0.808	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.080	0.000
predicted_HR	0.076	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.280	-0.016
predicted_R	0.325	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.389	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.018
predicted_SO	1.089	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	13.000	0.1053	0.1707	0.1579	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.3421
season	0.60	42	-	160.000	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	16.000	16.000	44.000	0.2250	0.3034	0.3063	0.2250	0.0063	0.0875	0.1000	0.2750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8040
predicted_AVG	0.2047
predicted_BB	0.3390
predicted_H	0.7790
predicted_HBP	0.0800
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2835
predicted_R	0.2670
predicted_RBI	0.3420
predicted_SLG	0.2952
predicted_SO	1.1230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.2260	0.2047	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.8040	3.8076	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2047	0.2280	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3810	0.3390	0.3639	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.7790	0.8210	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0800	0.0800	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0300	0.0774	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2835	0.2962	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3810	0.2670	0.3345	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.3420	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2952	0.3543	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0480	1.1230	1.0786	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656305
playerID	656305
playerName	Matt Chapman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2184

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1090

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.279	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.047	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.047	3.000	-0.047	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	-0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.163	1.000	-0.163	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.884	0.000	-0.884	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.253	0.250	-0.253	-0.250
predicted_R	0.349	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.349	0.000	-0.349	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.339	0.000	-0.339	0.000
predicted_SO	1.279	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.279	2.000	-1.279	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.047	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.163	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.349	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.279	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.061	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.006
predicted_BB	0.169	0.006
predicted_H	0.942	0.082
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.087	-0.023
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.005
predicted_R	0.345	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.444	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.379	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.256	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.061	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.167	-0.002
predicted_H	0.926	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.042
predicted_R	0.336	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.431	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.355	-0.024
predicted_SO	1.268	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.047

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.3636	0.3913	0.4091	0.3636	0.0000	0.2273	0.0454	0.3182
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	12.000	0.2927	0.3095	0.3171	0.2927	0.0000	0.1220	0.0244	0.2927
season	0.60	43	-	174.000	38.000	12.000	3.000	11.000	15.000	7.000	55.000	0.2184	0.2527	0.3391	0.2184	0.0172	0.0632	0.0402	0.3161

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2210
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0810
predicted_AVG	0.2597
predicted_BB	0.1770
predicted_H	1.0600
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.2937
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.4490
predicted_SLG	0.3552
predicted_SO	1.2230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2790	0.2210	0.2553	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0470	4.0810	4.0609	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2597	0.2504	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1630	0.1770	0.1687	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	1.0600	0.9417	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0550	0.0875	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2937	0.3004	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3490	0.3400	0.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4490	0.4437	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3552	0.3787	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2790	1.2230	1.2561	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Tyler Mahle (641816) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.500	2.000	-1.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_ER	3.000	4.000	2.000	1.000
predicted_H	9.000	9.000	9.000	Pitching_H	5.250	5.000	3.750	4.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.062	5.200	-0.062	-0.200
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	5.250	8.000	-1.250	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	17.000	26.000	13.000	27.000	6.000	5.6667	1.4444	0.6296	0.9630	0.4815	1.0000	0.2222
last_10	0.35	8	41.200	24.000	42.000	20.000	42.000	8.000	5.1840	1.4880	0.5760	1.0080	0.4800	1.0080	0.1920
season	0.20	8	41.200	24.000	42.000	20.000	42.000	8.000	5.1840	1.4880	0.5760	1.0080	0.4800	1.0080	0.1920

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3610
predicted_ER	2.9670
predicted_ERA	5.0066
predicted_H	5.1340
predicted_HR	0.9620
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.2580
predicted_WHIP	1.4053

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.3610	1.6635	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	2.9670	4.0089	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0066	5.0066	form_only
predicted_H	9.0000	5.1340	7.1153	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.9620	0.9815	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.2580	4.6133	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4053	1.4053	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	9
R	5
ER	5
BB	1
SO	4
HR	1
BF	25
Pitches	94

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	5.18
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	641816
playerID	641816
playerName	Tyler Mahle
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.944	1.100	0.056	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.056	1.000	-0.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	3.3750	1.6875	0.3750	0.7500	0.9375	0.5625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	12.100	2.000	7.000	8.000	9.000	1.000	1.4595	1.2162	0.1622	0.5676	0.6486	0.7297	0.0811
season	0.20	18	19.100	3.000	9.000	12.000	19.000	2.000	1.3966	1.0862	0.1552	0.4655	0.6207	0.9828	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5800
predicted_ER	0.3940
predicted_ERA	3.3757
predicted_H	0.8450
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8920
predicted_WHIP	1.3561

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5800	0.2385	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3940	0.1620	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3757	3.3757	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8450	0.9363	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0567	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8920	0.9556	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3561	1.3561	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	7

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Joel Peguero (666711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 5

All-history rows before 20260515: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.880	1.100	0.120	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.3750	0.3750	0.1875
last_10	0.35	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.3750	0.3750	0.1875
season	0.20	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.3750	0.3750	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3800
predicted_ER	0.4170
predicted_ERA	3.7570
predicted_H	0.8400
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8240
predicted_WHIP	1.2207

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3800	0.1145	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4170	0.1257	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7570	3.7570	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8400	0.2532	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1060	0.0320	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8240	0.9469	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2207	1.2207	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666711
playerID	666711
playerName	Joel Peguero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Gage (657424) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 22

All-history rows before 20260515: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.136	1.000	-0.136	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.100	-0.400	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.591	1.000	-0.591	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	2.2500	1.2500	0.2500	0.7500	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.100	1.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	0.000	1.2273	1.3636	0.1364	0.6818	0.6818	0.8182	0.0000
season	0.20	22	18.100	3.000	11.000	11.000	13.000	1.000	1.4727	1.2000	0.1636	0.6000	0.6000	0.7091	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3110
predicted_ER	0.2340
predicted_ERA	3.1589
predicted_H	0.5580
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6170
predicted_WHIP	1.3033

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3110	0.1262	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2340	0.0949	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1589	3.1589	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5580	0.2264	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0530	0.0215	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6170	0.2503	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3033	1.3033	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.47
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	657424
playerID	657424
playerName	Matt Gage
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	0.737	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.474	1.000	0.526	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.916	1.000	-0.816	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	1.000	0.211	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.9286	0.6429	0.2143	0.4286	0.2143	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	1.8000	0.9000	0.2000	0.5000	0.4000	0.4000
season	0.20	19	18.100	5.000	9.000	6.000	15.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.4909	0.3273	0.8182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_ER	0.2230
predicted_ERA	3.2652
predicted_H	0.4540
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4700
predicted_WHIP	1.0875

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2140	0.0868	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2230	0.6848	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2652	3.2652	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4540	0.7785	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0460	0.6130	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4700	0.7850	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0875	1.0875	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	2
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Home Team: OAK

Lawrence Butler (671732) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 30

All-history rows before 20260515: 30

System season_avg: 0.1870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1869

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.567	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.567	3.000	-0.567	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.187	0.000	0.146	0.333
predicted_BB	0.567	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.567	1.000	0.433	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.250	0.202	0.250
predicted_R	0.467	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.299	0.000	0.034	0.333
predicted_SO	1.033	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.033	1.000	-1.033	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.567	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.567	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.033	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.570	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.565	-0.002
predicted_H	0.740	-0.030
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.095	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.000
predicted_R	0.487	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.368	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.035
predicted_SO	1.022	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.570	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.568	0.003
predicted_H	0.743	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.096	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.012
predicted_R	0.492	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.371	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.039
predicted_SO	1.018	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	9.000	0.1818	0.3415	0.3030	0.1818	0.0303	0.0909	0.2424	0.2727
season	0.60	30	-	107.000	20.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	17.000	31.000	0.1869	0.2984	0.2991	0.1869	0.0280	0.1121	0.1589	0.2897

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1310
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5740
predicted_AVG	0.1939
predicted_BB	0.5620
predicted_H	0.6930
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_OBP	0.3047
predicted_R	0.5170
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.3059
predicted_SO	1.0060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1310	0.1122	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5670	3.5740	3.5698	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1939	0.2243	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5670	0.5620	0.5650	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.6930	0.7397	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0880	0.0953	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3047	0.3049	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.5170	0.4867	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3330	0.3676	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3059	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0330	1.0060	1.0224	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.187

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	671732
playerID	671732
playerName	Lawrence Butler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2676

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.550	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.550	4.000	0.450	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.500	-0.018	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.950	2.000	0.050	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.500	-0.066	-0.250
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.650	1.000	-0.650	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.535	1.250	-0.285	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	0.000	0.100	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.550	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.003
predicted_3B	0.046	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.597	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.008
predicted_BB	0.259	0.009
predicted_H	0.838	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.158	0.058
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.005
predicted_R	0.590	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.458	0.068
predicted_SLG	0.443	0.048
predicted_SO	0.891	-0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.046	0.000
predicted_AB	3.597	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.260	0.001
predicted_H	0.842	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.159	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.024
predicted_R	0.596	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.462	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.421	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.887	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.5789	0.2632	0.1053	0.1053	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	8.000	4.000	9.000	0.2973	0.3659	0.7027	0.2973	0.1081	0.1892	0.1081	0.2432
season	0.60	20	-	71.000	19.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	12.000	5.000	18.000	0.2676	0.3158	0.5352	0.2676	0.0704	0.1831	0.0704	0.2535

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.6770
predicted_AVG	0.2645
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_H	0.9730
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.2570
predicted_OBP	0.3178
predicted_R	0.5730
predicted_RBI	0.5740
predicted_SLG	0.5257
predicted_SO	0.8750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1080	0.1029	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0400	0.0463	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5500	3.6770	3.5966	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2645	0.2515	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2740	0.2588	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9730	0.8382	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.2570	0.1577	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3178	0.3097	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.5730	0.5901	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.5740	0.4576	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5257	0.4430	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.8750	0.8908	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2745

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	0.810	1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.643	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.643	3.000	0.357	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.667	0.225	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.952	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.952	1.000	-0.952	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.428	0.800	0.072	-0.300
predicted_R	0.643	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.643	1.000	0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.619	1.000	0.381	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.477	1.667	0.273	-0.917
predicted_SO	1.357	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.357	1.000	-1.357	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.643	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.952	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.357	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	0.039
predicted_3B	0.027	0.003
predicted_AB	3.646	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.027
predicted_BB	0.882	-0.070
predicted_H	0.966	0.116
predicted_HBP	0.070	-
predicted_HR	0.151	0.041
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.055
predicted_R	0.704	0.061
predicted_RBI	0.571	0.141
predicted_SLG	0.470	0.075
predicted_SO	1.273	-0.084

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.646	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.886	0.004
predicted_H	0.971	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.070	0.000
predicted_HR	0.152	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.410	0.050
predicted_R	0.711	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.576	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.469	-0.001
predicted_SO	1.267	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	4.000	5.000	0.4118	0.5455	0.9412	0.4118	0.1177	0.3529	0.2353	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	8.000	6.000	9.000	0.3684	0.4667	0.6579	0.3684	0.0526	0.2632	0.1579	0.2368
season	0.60	42	-	153.000	42.000	8.000	1.000	7.000	26.000	27.000	40.000	57.000	0.2745	0.4278	0.4771	0.2745	0.0457	0.1699	0.2614	0.3725

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2840
predicted_3B	0.0310
predicted_AB	3.6490
predicted_AVG	0.3104
predicted_BB	0.7810
predicted_H	1.1330
predicted_HBP	0.0700
predicted_HR	0.2100
predicted_OBP	0.4385
predicted_R	0.7920
predicted_RBI	0.7720
predicted_SLG	0.5777
predicted_SO	1.1520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.2840	0.2286	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0310	0.0269	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6430	3.6490	3.6455	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3104	0.2713	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9520	0.7810	0.8817	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	1.1330	0.9663	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0700	0.0700	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2100	0.1511	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.4385	0.3598	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.7920	0.7042	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.7720	0.5705	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5777	0.4701	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3570	1.1520	1.2728	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Shea Langeliers (669127) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 39

All-history rows before 20260515: 39

System season_avg: 0.3400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3395

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	0.744	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.154	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.154	5.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.340	0.600	0.160	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.410	3.000	0.590	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.397	0.600	0.103	-0.100
predicted_R	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.769	0.000	0.231	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.692	2.000	1.308	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.623	0.600	0.877	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.154	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.769	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.090	-0.064
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.042
predicted_BB	0.397	0.012
predicted_H	1.111	0.191
predicted_HBP	0.072	-
predicted_HR	0.183	0.063
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.043
predicted_R	0.778	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.644	0.174
predicted_SLG	0.487	0.092
predicted_SO	0.963	-0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.090	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.399	0.002
predicted_H	1.117	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.072	0.000
predicted_HR	0.184	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.338	-0.010
predicted_R	0.786	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.651	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.471	-0.015
predicted_SO	0.959	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.154

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.3889	0.4783	0.6111	0.3889	0.0556	0.3889	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	17.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	11.000	4.000	8.000	0.4146	0.4681	0.8049	0.4146	0.0976	0.3171	0.0976	0.1951
season	0.60	39	-	162.000	55.000	10.000	12.000	27.000	30.000	15.000	39.000	0.3395	0.3966	0.6235	0.3395	0.0741	0.1667	0.0926	0.2407

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9980
predicted_AVG	0.3471
predicted_BB	0.4140
predicted_H	1.3880
predicted_HBP	0.0720
predicted_HR	0.2750
predicted_OBP	0.4098
predicted_R	0.7910
predicted_RBI	0.8970
predicted_SLG	0.6196
predicted_SO	0.9100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2590	0.2572	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1540	3.9980	4.0903	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3471	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.4140	0.3968	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.3880	1.1110	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0720	0.0720	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.2750	0.1832	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.4098	0.3478	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7690	0.7910	0.7780	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.8970	0.6442	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.6196	0.4866	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9100	0.9633	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.34

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669127
playerID	669127
playerName	Shea Langeliers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	OAK
teamID	20

Henry Bolte (703607) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 2

All-history rows before 20260515: 2

System season_avg: 0.5000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.5000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.500	0.250	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.500	1.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.250	-0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.250	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.030
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.138	0.138
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.012
predicted_BB	0.465	-0.035
predicted_H	0.736	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.083	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.009
predicted_R	0.082	0.082
predicted_RBI	0.356	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.005
predicted_SO	0.560	0.060

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.138	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.468	0.002
predicted_H	0.740	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.021
predicted_R	0.083	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.359	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.074
predicted_SO	0.557	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	2	-	6.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.20	2	-	6.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667
season	0.60	2	-	6.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1360
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.6290
predicted_AVG	0.2978
predicted_BB	0.3420
predicted_H	1.0800
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_OBP	0.3463
predicted_R	0.3730
predicted_RBI	0.4830
predicted_SLG	0.4167
predicted_SO	0.7730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1360	0.0298	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.6290	3.1378	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2978	0.2558	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3420	0.4654	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	1.0800	0.7364	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0920	0.0826	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3463	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3730	0.0817	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.4830	0.3557	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4167	0.3998	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7730	0.5598	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	703607
playerID	703607
playerName	Henry Bolte
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jeff McNeil (643446) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 34

All-history rows before 20260515: 34

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2893

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.559	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.559	3.000	0.441	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.000	-0.039	0.250
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	1.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.029	0.000	-0.029	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.250	-0.103	0.000
predicted_R	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.324	1.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.000	0.120	0.500
predicted_SO	0.471	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.471	1.000	0.529	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.559	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.324	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.471	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.568	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.298	-0.026
predicted_H	0.759	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.085	-
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.022
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.002
predicted_R	0.333	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.351	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.534	0.064

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.568	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.300	0.001
predicted_H	0.763	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.085	0.000
predicted_HR	0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.029
predicted_R	0.336	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.354	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.332	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.532	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.0588	0.1579	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2821	0.3056	0.2500	0.0000	0.1389	0.0278	0.1944
season	0.60	34	-	121.000	35.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	11.000	11.000	16.000	0.2893	0.3529	0.3802	0.2893	0.0083	0.0992	0.0909	0.1322

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5820
predicted_AVG	0.2369
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.8490
predicted_HBP	0.0850
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.3008
predicted_R	0.3460
predicted_RBI	0.3370
predicted_SLG	0.3179
predicted_SO	0.6310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.1800	0.2132	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5590	3.5820	3.5681	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2369	0.2412	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.2590	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8490	0.7592	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0850	0.0850	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0350	0.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3008	0.3033	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3240	0.3460	0.3327	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3370	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3179	0.3644	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4710	0.6310	0.5345	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	643446
playerID	643446
playerName	Jeff McNeil
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Tyler Soderstrom (691016) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1948

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.850	5.000	0.150	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.277	0.000	-0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	0.000	-0.383	0.000
predicted_SO	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	0.000	0.100	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.550	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.902	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.402	-0.048
predicted_H	0.783	-0.077
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.113	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.274	-0.031
predicted_R	0.548	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.411	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.366	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.911	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.902	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.403	0.002
predicted_H	0.787	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.114	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.002
predicted_R	0.553	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.416	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.004
predicted_SO	0.907	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.850

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.0455	0.0455	0.0909	0.0454	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2273
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	10.000	0.1463	0.2045	0.3171	0.1463	0.0488	0.0488	0.0732	0.2439
season	0.60	40	-	154.000	30.000	12.000	1.000	5.000	20.000	22.000	18.000	36.000	0.1948	0.2775	0.3831	0.1948	0.0325	0.1299	0.1169	0.2338

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2340
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.9780
predicted_AVG	0.1683
predicted_BB	0.3310
predicted_H	0.6700
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.2296
predicted_R	0.5450
predicted_RBI	0.3700
predicted_SLG	0.3237
predicted_SO	0.9280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.2340	0.2732	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0150	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8500	3.9780	3.9021	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1683	0.2132	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.3310	0.4016	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.6700	0.7827	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1180	0.1133	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2296	0.2743	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5500	0.5450	0.5480	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.3700	0.4115	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3237	0.3660	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.9280	0.9114	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	691016
playerID	691016
playerName	Tyler Soderstrom
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 26

All-history rows before 20260515: 26

System season_avg: 0.1920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1919

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	1.000	-0.077	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.808	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.808	4.000	0.192	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.192	0.250	0.058	0.000
predicted_BB	0.538	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.731	1.000	0.269	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.400	-0.037	-0.150
predicted_R	0.346	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.346	0.000	0.654	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.692	0.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.500	-0.114	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.346	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.346	1.000	-0.346	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.808	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.538	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.346	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.346	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.775	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.560	0.022
predicted_H	0.823	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.138	0.028
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.007
predicted_R	0.339	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.503	0.083
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.003
predicted_SO	1.268	-0.078

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.775	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.562	0.003
predicted_H	0.827	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.139	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.009
predicted_R	0.342	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.508	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.356	-0.041
predicted_SO	1.263	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.808

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	0.2353	0.4091	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.1765	0.2941	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	7.000	13.000	0.2432	0.3636	0.4595	0.2432	0.0541	0.1892	0.1892	0.3513
season	0.60	26	-	99.000	19.000	2.000	5.000	18.000	9.000	14.000	35.000	0.1919	0.2870	0.3636	0.1919	0.0505	0.1818	0.1414	0.3535

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1390
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7240
predicted_AVG	0.2177
predicted_BB	0.5940
predicted_H	0.8110
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.3223
predicted_R	0.3280
predicted_RBI	0.6340
predicted_SLG	0.4022
predicted_SO	1.1470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.1390	0.1011	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8080	3.7240	3.7753	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2177	0.2338	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5380	0.5940	0.5598	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8110	0.8226	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1810	0.1377	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3223	0.3117	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3460	0.3280	0.3390	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.6340	0.5033	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4022	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3460	1.1470	1.2685	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.192

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Darell Hernaiz (687231) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2321

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2320

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.111	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.111	2.000	0.889	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.000	0.268	0.500
predicted_BB	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.722	0.000	1.278	2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	0.944	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.000	0.172	0.500
predicted_R	0.389	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	0.000	1.722	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.000	0.964	1.250
predicted_SO	0.611	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.111	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.611	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.207	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.003
predicted_BB	0.414	-0.030
predicted_H	0.709	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.072	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.008
predicted_R	0.417	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.323	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.662	0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.207	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.416	0.002
predicted_H	0.712	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.001
predicted_R	0.421	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.326	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.297	-0.072
predicted_SO	0.659	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.3125	0.3529	0.3125	0.3125	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	9.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.2647	0.3421	0.2647	0.2647	0.0000	0.0882	0.1177	0.2059
season	0.60	18	-	56.000	13.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	8.000	11.000	0.2321	0.3281	0.2857	0.2321	0.0179	0.0893	0.1429	0.1964

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0510
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3810
predicted_AVG	0.2512
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_H	0.8500
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.3261
predicted_R	0.4670
predicted_RBI	0.3270
predicted_SLG	0.3212
predicted_SO	0.7530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0510	0.0182	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1110	3.3810	3.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2512	0.2466	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.3610	0.4144	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8500	0.7085	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0590	0.0725	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3261	0.3125	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.4670	0.4168	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3270	0.3225	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3212	0.3687	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6110	0.7530	0.6616	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	687231
playerID	687231
playerName	Darell Hernaiz
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	OAK
teamID	20

Aaron Civale (650644) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.625	3.000	0.375	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.500	0.000	-0.500	1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	5.625	6.000	-1.625	-2.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.062	5.000	0.138	0.200
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	4.125	6.000	-0.125	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.000	9.000	35.000	8.000	21.000	2.000	3.1154	1.6538	0.3462	1.3461	0.3077	0.8077	0.0769
last_10	0.35	8	41.200	12.000	45.000	13.000	33.000	4.000	2.5920	1.3920	0.2880	1.0800	0.3120	0.7920	0.0960
season	0.20	8	41.200	12.000	45.000	13.000	33.000	4.000	2.5920	1.3920	0.2880	1.0800	0.3120	0.7920	0.0960

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8400
predicted_ER	2.0810
predicted_ERA	3.4285
predicted_H	6.2130
predicted_HR	0.5500
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.7130
predicted_WHIP	1.4744

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.8400	1.9220	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.0810	1.5270	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4285	3.4285	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	6.2130	5.0789	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5500	0.2681	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.1000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.7130	3.8351	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4744	1.4744	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.59
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	650644
playerID	650644
playerName	Aaron Civale
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 16

All-history rows before 20260515: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.775	0.100	0.225	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.5000	0.7500	0.5000	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	5.000	10.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.6552	1.4483	0.5172	1.0345	0.4138	0.3103	0.1035
season	0.20	16	15.200	5.000	12.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	2.8723	1.0213	0.3191	0.7660	0.2553	0.3830	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_ER	0.4410
predicted_ERA	4.2086
predicted_H	0.8130
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6650
predicted_WHIP	1.2162

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3330	0.1298	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4410	0.1719	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2086	4.2086	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8130	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1330	0.0518	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6650	0.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2162	1.2162	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Scott Barlow (605130) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.450	0.000	-0.450
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	-0.350
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.450	1.000	0.550
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.865	1.000	0.135
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	0.000	-0.900

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.4286	0.2143	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.2812	0.2812	0.8438	0.0000
season	0.20	19	20.100	3.000	7.000	7.000	18.000	1.000	1.3279	0.6885	0.1475	0.3443	0.3443	0.8852	0.0492

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3290
predicted_ER	0.3000
predicted_ERA	2.7025
predicted_H	0.6800
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9570
predicted_WHIP	1.0090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3290	0.1370	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3000	0.1249	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7025	2.7025	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6800	0.8667	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0760	0.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9570	0.3985	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0090	1.0090	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	4

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	605130
playerID	605130
playerName	Scott Barlow
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 23

All-history rows before 20260515: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.739	0.000	-0.739	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.783	1.000	-0.783	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.670	0.100	-0.470	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	2.200	1.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	3.3750	2.6250	0.3750	1.8750	0.7500	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	6.200	2.000	10.000	5.000	10.000	1.000	2.7000	2.2500	0.3000	1.5000	0.7500	1.5000	0.1500
season	0.20	23	21.000	6.000	18.000	17.000	23.000	2.000	2.5714	1.6667	0.2857	0.8571	0.8095	1.0952	0.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3870
predicted_ER	0.2820
predicted_ERA	3.6417
predicted_H	0.8450
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8150
predicted_WHIP	1.7672

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3870	0.1625	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2820	0.1184	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6417	3.6417	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8450	0.3547	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0720	0.0302	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8150	0.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7672	1.7672	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Mark Leiter Jr. (643410) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.200	0.000	-1.200	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.755	1.000	-0.555	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	6.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	11.5714	1.5000	1.2857	1.2857	0.2143	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	11.000	0.000	7.0000	1.3333	0.7778	1.1111	0.2222	1.2222	0.0000
season	0.20	20	17.200	15.000	24.000	6.000	20.000	2.000	7.6415	1.6981	0.8491	1.3585	0.3396	1.1321	0.1132

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2600
predicted_ER	0.5590
predicted_ERA	6.2552
predicted_H	0.8550
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8620
predicted_WHIP	1.3869

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2600	0.1045	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5590	0.8228	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.2552	6.2552	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8550	0.3436	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0680	0.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8620	0.9445	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3869	1.3869	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.64
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	643410
playerID	643410
playerName	Mark Leiter Jr.
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

20260515_TEX@HOU

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.535378, "home_win_probability": 0.464622, "away_win_probability": 0.535378, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 2 HOU", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 2 HOU", "confidence": 0.535378, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 2 HOU", "winner": "TEX"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 2 HOU", "winner": "TEX"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	TEX 4 - 2 HOU	TEX	0.535	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	TEX 4 - 2 HOU	TEX	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away TEX	5-5	0.500	3.60	4.10	-5	2W	average	average
Home HOU	3-7	0.300	2.80	5.30	-25	1L	cold	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away TEX	21-22	0.488	0	0	True
Home HOU	17-28	0.378	-48	-1.067	True
Signal	-	-	-1.067	-1.233	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target TEX	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target HOU	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Player finalized TEX	31	9	4	0	1	0	9
Player finalized HOU	32	9	2	0	0	1	9
Player model fractional TEX	30.71	7.13	3.90	0.93	3.64	2.94	7.46
Player model fractional HOU	31.98	6.91	3.57	0.98	3.42	2.57	8.50
Simulation box TEX	35	8	4	1	4	4	6
Simulation box HOU	35	8	2	0	2	3	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away TEX	Starter	Jack Leiter	5.10	1	4	5	2	4.59	1.40	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Jacob Latz	1.10	0	1	1	0	2.33	0.85	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Cole Winn	1	1	1	2	1	4.62	1.55	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Jakob Junis	1.10	0	2	0	0	3.27	1.12	True
Home HOU	Starter	Spencer Arrighetti	5.20	2	6	5	2	3.04	1.32	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan King	1.10	0	0	1	2	3.95	1.44	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan Abreu	1	1	0	1	0	4.14	1.47	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Enyel De Los Santos	1	1	0	1	0	3.94	1.12	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: TEX

Joc Pederson (592626) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 32

All-history rows before 20260515: 32

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1978

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.844	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.844	4.000	2.156	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	-0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.406	0.000	-0.406	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.281	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.297	0.000	-0.297	0.000
predicted_SO	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	0.000	0.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.844	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.406	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.281	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	0.031
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.961	0.117
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.405	-0.002
predicted_H	0.667	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.001
predicted_R	0.299	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.334	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.385	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.875	-0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.961	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.406	0.002
predicted_H	0.681	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.096	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.019
predicted_R	0.310	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.346	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.370	-0.015
predicted_SO	0.871	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.1935	0.2500	0.3548	0.1935	0.0323	0.1290	0.0968	0.2258
season	0.60	32	-	91.000	18.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	13.000	28.000	0.1978	0.2963	0.2967	0.1978	0.0220	0.0769	0.1429	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1470
predicted_AVG	0.2153
predicted_BB	0.4020
predicted_H	0.6780
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.3023
predicted_R	0.3290
predicted_RBI	0.3240
predicted_SLG	0.3687
predicted_SO	0.8740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.1740	0.1249	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8440	3.1470	2.9611	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2153	0.2329	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4060	0.4020	0.4045	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.6780	0.6670	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1010	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3023	0.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2810	0.3290	0.2995	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3240	0.3338	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3687	0.3848	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.8740	0.8746	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	592626
playerID	592626
playerName	Joc Pederson
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jake Burger (669394) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 40

All-history rows before 20260515: 40

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2229

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.925	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.925	4.000	0.075	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.500	0.027	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	2.000	0.125	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	1.000	-0.150	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.500	-0.009	-0.250
predicted_R	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	1.000	0.650	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	4.000	0.400	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.369	1.250	-0.119	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.100	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.100	1.000	-1.100	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.925	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.175	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.100	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.865	-0.060
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.001
predicted_BB	0.185	0.011
predicted_H	0.876	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.007
predicted_R	0.351	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.552	0.122
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.004
predicted_SO	0.998	-0.103

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.865	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.186	0.001
predicted_H	0.894	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.134	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.031
predicted_R	0.364	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.572	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.366	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.993	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.925

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.4706	0.2941	0.0588	0.3529	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2703	0.3077	0.4595	0.2703	0.0541	0.2162	0.0541	0.1622
season	0.60	40	-	157.000	35.000	5.000	6.000	24.000	14.000	7.000	44.000	0.2229	0.2590	0.3694	0.2229	0.0382	0.1529	0.0446	0.2802

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7780
predicted_AVG	0.2462
predicted_BB	0.2010
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1640
predicted_OBP	0.2869
predicted_R	0.3530
predicted_RBI	0.7300
predicted_SLG	0.4056
predicted_SO	0.8470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1060	0.1173	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9250	3.7780	3.8654	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2462	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1750	0.2010	0.1855	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9300	0.8765	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1640	0.1319	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2869	0.2977	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.3530	0.3512	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.7300	0.5516	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4056	0.3993	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1000	0.8470	0.9975	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	669394
playerID	669394
playerName	Jake Burger
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 39

All-history rows before 20260515: 39

System season_avg: 0.3270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3267

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.846	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.846	4.000	0.154	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.327	0.500	-0.077	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.256	2.000	-0.256	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.500	-0.124	-0.250
predicted_R	0.487	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.487	1.000	-0.487	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.513	0.750	-0.013	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.641	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.641	1.000	-0.641	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.846	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.256	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.487	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.641	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.299	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.871	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.036
predicted_BB	0.224	-0.032
predicted_H	1.026	0.186
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.120	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.026
predicted_R	0.549	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.413	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.438	0.043
predicted_SO	0.656	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.299	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.871	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.225	0.001
predicted_H	1.047	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.048	0.000
predicted_HR	0.122	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.020
predicted_R	0.569	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.428	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.443	0.005
predicted_SO	0.653	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.846

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	0.4500	0.4500	0.6500	0.4500	0.0500	0.0500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	7.000	0.3171	0.3333	0.4146	0.3171	0.0244	0.0244	0.0000	0.1707
season	0.60	39	-	150.000	49.000	13.000	5.000	20.000	19.000	10.000	25.000	0.3267	0.3742	0.5133	0.3267	0.0333	0.1333	0.0667	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2490
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9070
predicted_AVG	0.3330
predicted_BB	0.1770
predicted_H	1.3010
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.3694
predicted_R	0.6410
predicted_RBI	0.3890
predicted_SLG	0.5013
predicted_SO	0.6790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2490	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8460	3.9070	3.8707	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3330	0.2800	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2560	0.1770	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.3010	1.0265	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1350	0.1201	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3694	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4870	0.6410	0.5493	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.3890	0.4134	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5013	0.4380	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6410	0.6790	0.6564	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.327

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Alejandro Osuna (696030) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 13

All-history rows before 20260515: 13

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2424

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2420

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	0.923	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.538	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.538	2.000	0.462	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.424	0.667
predicted_BB	0.462	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	1.000	0.538	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.615	0.000	1.385	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.419	0.500	0.331	0.250
predicted_R	0.308	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	2.000	0.692	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_SO	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	1.000	0.308	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.538	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	0.010
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.737	0.199
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.004
predicted_BB	0.429	-0.033
predicted_H	0.632	0.082
predicted_HBP	0.247	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.022
predicted_R	0.336	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.070
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.727	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.737	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.431	0.002
predicted_H	0.645	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.247	0.000
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.012
predicted_R	0.348	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.363	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.038
predicted_SO	0.724	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4444	0.3333	0.3333	0.2667	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.2857	0.2500	0.1786	0.1071	0.2857
season	0.60	13	-	33.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	9.000	0.2424	0.4186	0.2727	0.2424	0.1515	0.1818	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.1410
predicted_AVG	0.2546
predicted_BB	0.3630
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.2470
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.3729
predicted_R	0.3920
predicted_RBI	0.4930
predicted_SLG	0.3314
predicted_SO	0.7980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.1080	0.0872	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5380	3.1410	2.7369	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2546	0.2475	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.3630	0.4294	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.8000	0.6324	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2470	0.2470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0410	0.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3729	0.3274	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.3920	0.3357	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.4930	0.3502	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3314	0.3740	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.7980	0.7270	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	696030
playerID	696030
playerName	Alejandro Osuna
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Brandon Nimmo (607043) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2812

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	3.902	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.902	4.000	1.098	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.000	-0.081	0.200
predicted_BB	0.415	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.415	0.000	-0.415	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.098	0.000	-0.098	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.000	-0.159	0.200
predicted_R	0.439	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.439	0.000	0.561	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.293	0.000	1.707	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.425	0.000	-0.025	0.400
predicted_SO	0.854	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.854	2.000	0.146	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.049	-
predicted_AB	3.902	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.415	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.439	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.854	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.061	0.012
predicted_AB	3.868	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.006
predicted_BB	0.399	-0.016
predicted_H	0.924	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.092	-0.018
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.010
predicted_R	0.423	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.354	-0.096
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.847	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.868	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.401	0.002
predicted_H	0.943	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.041	0.000
predicted_HR	0.094	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.438	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.367	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.386	-0.003
predicted_SO	0.843	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.902

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3415	0.3056	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1389	0.2222
season	0.60	41	-	160.000	45.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	12.000	18.000	17.000	35.000	0.2812	0.3591	0.4250	0.2812	0.0250	0.0750	0.1062	0.2188

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0790
predicted_AB	3.8180
predicted_AVG	0.2584
predicted_BB	0.3750
predicted_H	0.9870
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.3297
predicted_R	0.3990
predicted_RBI	0.2150
predicted_SLG	0.3814
predicted_SO	0.8360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1120	0.1469	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0490	0.0790	0.0613	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9020	3.8180	3.8677	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2584	0.2499	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4150	0.3750	0.3987	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9870	0.9237	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0660	0.0920	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3297	0.3151	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4390	0.3990	0.4227	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.2150	0.3540	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3814	0.3894	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8540	0.8360	0.8466	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	607043
playerID	607043
playerName	Brandon Nimmo
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Justin Foscue (679822) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 2

All-history rows before 20260515: 2

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.030
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.137	0.137
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.047	0.047
predicted_H	0.643	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.024
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.005
predicted_R	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.337	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.009
predicted_SO	0.560	0.060

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.137	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.047	0.000
predicted_H	0.656	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.025	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.221	-0.080
predicted_R	0.518	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.322	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.557	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.6667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.20	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.6667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667
season	0.60	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.6667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.6640
predicted_AVG	0.2310
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	0.8460
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.1990
predicted_OBP	0.2823
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.4810
predicted_SLG	0.4399
predicted_SO	0.7900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1440	0.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.6640	3.1370	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2310	0.2413	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2280	0.0470	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.8460	0.6428	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1990	0.1045	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2823	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.4810	0.3373	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4399	0.4043	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7900	0.5598	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	679822
playerID	679822
playerName	Justin Foscue
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 29

All-history rows before 20260515: 29

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2917

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.241	1.000	-0.241	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.310	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.310	4.000	0.690	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.250	0.208	0.250
predicted_BB	0.414	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.414	0.000	0.586	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.966	1.000	1.034	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	0.897	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.600	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.250	0.233	0.350
predicted_R	0.552	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.552	1.000	0.448	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.483	1.000	0.517	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.479	0.500	0.771	0.750
predicted_SO	0.759	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.759	2.000	0.241	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.310	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.414	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.552	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.759	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.404	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.015
predicted_BB	0.397	-0.017
predicted_H	0.841	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.114	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.017
predicted_R	0.577	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.445	0.065
predicted_SLG	0.429	0.034
predicted_SO	0.824	0.065

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.404	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.399	0.002
predicted_H	0.859	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.116	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.009
predicted_R	0.598	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.461	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.016
predicted_SO	0.820	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	8.000	5.000	11.000	0.3243	0.3953	0.6216	0.3243	0.0541	0.2162	0.1351	0.2973
season	0.60	29	-	96.000	28.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	16.000	12.000	22.000	0.2917	0.3670	0.4792	0.2917	0.0312	0.1458	0.1250	0.2292

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2330
predicted_3B	0.0350
predicted_AB	3.5530
predicted_AVG	0.2820
predicted_BB	0.3710
predicted_H	1.0020
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.3476
predicted_R	0.6160
predicted_RBI	0.5480
predicted_SLG	0.4824
predicted_SO	0.9270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2410	0.2330	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0350	0.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3100	3.5530	3.4040	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2820	0.2587	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4140	0.3710	0.3974	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	1.0020	0.8414	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1360	0.1139	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3476	0.3215	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5520	0.6160	0.5768	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.5480	0.4450	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4824	0.4288	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7590	0.9270	0.8240	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Kyle Higashioka (543309) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 17

All-history rows before 20260515: 17

System season_avg: 0.1800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1803

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.588	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.588	4.000	-0.588	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.180	0.000	0.153	0.333
predicted_BB	0.353	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.254	0.000	0.246	0.500
predicted_R	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.246	0.000	0.087	0.333
predicted_SO	1.235	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.235	2.000	-1.235	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.588	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.235	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.235	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.607	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.330	-0.023
predicted_H	0.704	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.021
predicted_R	0.239	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.363	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.347	-0.048
predicted_SO	1.196	-0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.607	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.332	0.002
predicted_H	0.718	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.081	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.018
predicted_R	0.248	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.376	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.287	-0.061
predicted_SO	1.191	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	13.000	0.1351	0.1795	0.1622	0.1351	0.0000	0.0541	0.0541	0.3513
season	0.60	17	-	61.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	21.000	0.1803	0.2537	0.2459	0.1803	0.0164	0.0820	0.0984	0.3443

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6420
predicted_AVG	0.1850
predicted_BB	0.2900
predicted_H	0.6740
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.2474
predicted_R	0.2460
predicted_RBI	0.3500
predicted_SLG	0.2626
predicted_SO	1.1280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.0920	0.0709	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5880	3.6420	3.6074	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1850	0.2228	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.2900	0.3303	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.6740	0.7035	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0610	0.0796	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2474	0.2843	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2350	0.2460	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3500	0.3628	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2626	0.3474	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2350	1.1280	1.1965	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	543309
playerID	543309
playerName	Kyle Higashioka
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

Evan Carter (694497) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 38

All-history rows before 20260515: 38

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1885

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.211	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.211	4.000	-0.211	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.500	-0.189	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.526	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	0.000	0.474	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.605	2.000	-0.605	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.500	-0.056	-0.250
predicted_R	0.447	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.447	1.000	-0.447	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.352	0.500	-0.352	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.842	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.842	0.000	-0.842	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.211	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.842	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.257	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.508	-0.018
predicted_H	0.670	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.026
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.002
predicted_R	0.492	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.363	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.385	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.811	-0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.257	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.511	0.002
predicted_H	0.683	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.118	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.013
predicted_R	0.510	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.377	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.357	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.807	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.3750	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	6.000	0.1818	0.3077	0.3939	0.1818	0.0606	0.1212	0.1818	0.1818
season	0.60	38	-	122.000	23.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	17.000	20.000	32.000	0.1885	0.3056	0.3525	0.1885	0.0410	0.1066	0.1639	0.2623

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3250
predicted_AVG	0.1968
predicted_BB	0.4820
predicted_H	0.6540
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.3013
predicted_R	0.5590
predicted_RBI	0.3830
predicted_SLG	0.3703
predicted_SO	0.7650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.1110	0.1236	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2110	3.3250	3.2566	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1968	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.4820	0.5084	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.6540	0.6696	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1540	0.1156	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3013	0.3035	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.5590	0.4918	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3830	0.3632	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3703	0.3851	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8420	0.7650	0.8112	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	694497
playerID	694497
playerName	Evan Carter
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jack Leiter (683004) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.250	5.000	-0.250	-3.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.875	0.000	-1.875	1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.375	4.000	-0.375	1.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.100	4.200	0.000	0.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	6.125	6.000	-2.125	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	15.000	29.000	12.000	28.000	4.000	4.8214	1.4643	0.5357	1.0357	0.4286	1.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	8	42.200	23.000	43.000	18.000	49.000	7.000	4.8516	1.4297	0.5391	1.0078	0.4219	1.1484	0.1641
season	0.20	8	42.200	23.000	43.000	18.000	49.000	7.000	4.8516	1.4297	0.5391	1.0078	0.4219	1.1484	0.1641

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2390
predicted_ER	2.7890
predicted_ERA	4.5868
predicted_H	5.4360
predicted_HR	0.7760
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.5470
predicted_WHIP	1.4022

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.2390	2.1165	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.7890	1.8721	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5868	4.5868	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.4360	5.2126	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7760	0.3783	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.5470	4.7542	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4022	1.4022	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	5
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	94

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	5
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.85
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	54
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	683004
playerID	683004
playerName	Jack Leiter
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	3.000	-0.278	-3.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.444	3.000	0.556	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.139	0.000	-0.039	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	0.000	0.056	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.1429	0.5714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2647	0.0000	0.1765	0.0882	0.6177	0.0000
season	0.20	17	21.200	2.000	5.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	0.8308	0.4154	0.0923	0.2308	0.1846	0.7846	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_ER	0.3310
predicted_ERA	2.3306
predicted_H	0.7470
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0320
predicted_WHIP	0.8501

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3400	0.1438	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3310	0.1400	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3306	2.3306	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7470	0.8930	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0398	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0320	1.0135	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8501	0.8501	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Cole Winn (668390) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	1.000	0.526	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.947	2.000	1.053	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.784	1.000	0.216	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	4.5000	2.2500	0.5000	1.7500	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	6.000	11.000	3.000	10.000	1.000	6.4800	1.6800	0.7200	1.3200	0.3600	1.2000	0.1200
season	0.20	19	17.000	9.000	18.000	7.000	19.000	3.000	4.7647	1.4706	0.5294	1.0588	0.4118	1.1177	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_ER	0.4580
predicted_ERA	4.6196
predicted_H	1.0260
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9040
predicted_WHIP	1.5521

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3590	0.7449	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4580	0.7843	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6196	4.6196	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0260	1.6124	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0970	0.0386	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9040	0.9618	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5521	1.5521	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.76
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	668390
playerID	668390
playerName	Cole Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 16

All-history rows before 20260515: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.625	2.000	-0.625	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.144	2.200	-0.044	-1.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.562	2.000	1.438	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	1.3500	0.7500	0.1500	0.6000	0.1500	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	3.0000	1.0000	0.3333	0.5833	0.4167	0.4167
season	0.20	16	19.000	4.000	10.000	5.000	9.000	1.8947	0.7895	0.2105	0.5263	0.2632	0.4737

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_ER	0.4150
predicted_ERA	3.2663
predicted_H	0.8970
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8430
predicted_WHIP	1.1160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3790	0.1552	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4150	0.1699	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2663	3.2663	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8970	0.3672	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0840	0.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8430	1.5263	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1160	1.1160	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.89
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	22
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Home Team: HOU

Brice Matthews (694728) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 28

All-history rows before 20260515: 28

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.393	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.393	4.000	1.607	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.400	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.200	0.400
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.679	0.000	1.321	2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.245	0.000	0.155	0.400
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.600	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.000	0.211	0.600
predicted_SO	1.179	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.179	1.000	-0.179	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.393	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.179	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.482	0.089
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.208	-0.006
predicted_H	0.744	-0.046
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.030
predicted_R	0.438	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.379	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.026
predicted_SO	1.128	-0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.482	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.206	-0.002
predicted_H	0.721	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.101	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.023
predicted_R	0.415	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.359	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.138	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.1351	0.1750	0.2703	0.1351	0.0270	0.0541	0.0541	0.2432
season	0.60	28	-	95.000	19.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	12.000	6.000	33.000	0.2000	0.2451	0.3895	0.2000	0.0421	0.1263	0.0632	0.3474

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.6260
predicted_AVG	0.1845
predicted_BB	0.1980
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_OBP	0.2255
predicted_R	0.4520
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.3275
predicted_SO	1.0460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1100	0.1303	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0360	0.0360	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3930	3.6260	3.4824	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1845	0.2212	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.1980	0.2079	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.6690	0.7436	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1120	0.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2255	0.2745	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4520	0.4378	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3450	0.3789	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3275	0.3691	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1790	1.0460	1.1280	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	694728
playerID	694728
playerName	Brice Matthews
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Isaac Paredes (670623) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 39

All-history rows before 20260515: 39

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2587

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2040

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	1.000	-0.385	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.949	0.000	-0.949	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.250	-0.350	-0.250
predicted_R	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_SO	0.718	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.718	3.000	0.282	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.410	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.718	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.686	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.002
predicted_BB	0.361	-0.024
predicted_H	0.864	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.089	-
predicted_HR	0.089	-0.021
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.008
predicted_R	0.367	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.397	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.371	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.771	0.053

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.686	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.358	-0.003
predicted_H	0.838	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.089	0.000
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.018
predicted_R	0.348	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.376	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.777	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	0.2286	0.3077	0.2571	0.2286	0.0000	0.0571	0.0857	0.2571
season	0.60	39	-	143.000	37.000	7.000	3.000	17.000	16.000	15.000	28.000	0.2587	0.3497	0.3706	0.2587	0.0210	0.1189	0.1049	0.1958

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7150
predicted_AVG	0.2498
predicted_BB	0.3260
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.0890
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.3249
predicted_R	0.3040
predicted_RBI	0.3630
predicted_SLG	0.3348
predicted_SO	0.8480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1370	0.1620	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.7150	3.6864	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2498	0.2463	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.3260	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9280	0.8637	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0890	0.0890	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0580	0.0890	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3249	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4100	0.3040	0.3671	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.3630	0.3969	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3348	0.3706	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7180	0.8480	0.7706	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670623
playerID	670623
playerName	Isaac Paredes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Cole (805904) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 8

All-history rows before 20260515: 8

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.375	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.375	5.000	0.625	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.028	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_R	0.125	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.000	0.130	0.500
predicted_SO	1.500	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	3.000	0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.375	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.125	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	0.015
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.442	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.042	0.042
predicted_H	0.760	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.103	-
predicted_HR	0.088	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.005
predicted_R	0.167	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.369	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.385	-0.011
predicted_SO	1.417	-0.083

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.442	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.041	-0.000
predicted_H	0.737	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.103	0.000
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.224	-0.076
predicted_R	0.159	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.350	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.331	-0.054
predicted_SO	1.429	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.2941	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.4706
last_10	0.20	8	-	27.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	12.000	0.2222	0.2500	0.3704	0.2222	0.0370	0.1111	0.4444
season	0.60	8	-	27.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	12.000	0.2222	0.2500	0.3704	0.2222	0.0370	0.1111	0.4444

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1760
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6000
predicted_AVG	0.2373
predicted_BB	0.1390
predicted_H	0.8550
predicted_HBP	0.1030
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.2870
predicted_R	0.2670
predicted_RBI	0.3680
predicted_SLG	0.3598
predicted_SO	1.2210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1760	0.1402	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3750	3.6000	3.4422	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2373	0.2420	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1390	0.0415	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8550	0.7603	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1030	0.1030	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0840	0.0882	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2870	0.2996	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1250	0.2670	0.1674	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3680	0.3694	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3598	0.3845	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.2210	1.4167	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	805904
playerID	805904
playerName	Zach Cole
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Dezenzo (701305) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 4

All-history rows before 20260515: 4

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	4.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.250	0.103	0.083
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.250	0.214	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.615	0.500	-0.282	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.448	-0.052
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.343	0.093
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.256	0.006
predicted_H	0.735	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.110	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.002
predicted_R	0.500	-0.000
predicted_RBI	0.384	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.412	0.017
predicted_SO	0.978	-0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.448	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.343	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.254	-0.002
predicted_H	0.712	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.035
predicted_R	0.474	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.363	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.031
predicted_SO	0.987	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	13.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.6154	0.2308	0.0769	0.1538	0.0769	0.3077
last_10	0.20	4	-	13.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.6154	0.2308	0.0769	0.1538	0.0769	0.3077
season	0.60	4	-	13.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.6154	0.2308	0.0769	0.1538	0.0769	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2940
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.6220
predicted_AVG	0.2397
predicted_BB	0.2730
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.2991
predicted_R	0.4990
predicted_RBI	0.4840
predicted_SLG	0.4648
predicted_SO	0.9110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.2940	0.4484	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.6220	3.3432	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2397	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2730	0.2558	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8680	0.7346	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1680	0.1095	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2991	0.3035	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4990	0.4997	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4840	0.3836	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4648	0.4125	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9110	0.9777	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	701305
playerID	701305
playerName	Zach Dezenzo
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 44

All-history rows before 20260515: 44

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2716

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.682	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.682	3.000	0.318	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.228	0.500
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.250	0.157	0.250
predicted_R	0.591	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.591	1.000	-0.591	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.659	0.000	-0.659	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.519	0.000	-0.019	0.500
predicted_SO	0.773	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.773	0.000	1.227	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.682	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.591	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.773	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.670	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.351	-0.013
predicted_H	0.791	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.148	0.038
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.009
predicted_R	0.558	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.457	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.016
predicted_SO	0.804	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.670	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.348	-0.003
predicted_H	0.767	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.143	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.018
predicted_R	0.529	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.433	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.385	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.811	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.3529	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.1081	0.1538	0.2973	0.1081	0.0541	0.0811	0.0541	0.2432
season	0.60	44	-	162.000	44.000	10.000	10.000	29.000	26.000	16.000	34.000	0.2716	0.3425	0.5185	0.2716	0.0617	0.1790	0.0988	0.2099

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1940
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6530
predicted_AVG	0.2132
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	0.7790
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.2030
predicted_OBP	0.2822
predicted_R	0.5110
predicted_RBI	0.5260
predicted_SLG	0.4345
predicted_SO	0.8480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.1940	0.2135	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6820	3.6530	3.6702	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2132	0.2314	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.3320	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.7790	0.7914	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2030	0.1480	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2822	0.2957	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5910	0.5110	0.5583	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5260	0.4574	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4345	0.4111	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7730	0.8480	0.8036	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Braden Shewmake (669699) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 9

All-history rows before 20260515: 9

System season_avg: 0.3530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3529

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	4.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.353	0.500	-0.353	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.333	2.000	-1.333	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.500	-0.353	-0.500
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	2.000	-0.556	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.559	0.750	-0.559	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.667	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.018
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.801	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.022
predicted_BB	0.042	0.042
predicted_H	0.930	0.130
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.121	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.012
predicted_R	0.448	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.055
predicted_SLG	0.426	0.031
predicted_SO	0.689	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.801	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.042	-0.000
predicted_H	0.902	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.118	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.246	-0.072
predicted_R	0.424	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.441	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.061
predicted_SO	0.695	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.6000	0.4000	0.0500	0.2000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	9	-	34.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	0.3529	0.3529	0.5588	0.3529	0.0588	0.1471	0.1765
season	0.60	9	-	34.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	0.3529	0.3529	0.5588	0.3529	0.0588	0.1471	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.8520
predicted_AVG	0.3157
predicted_BB	0.1350
predicted_H	1.2160
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.3445
predicted_R	0.4560
predicted_RBI	0.5860
predicted_SLG	0.4939
predicted_SO	0.7380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1690	0.1291	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	3.8520	3.8012	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3157	0.2664	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1350	0.0422	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	1.2160	0.9302	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1680	0.1213	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3445	0.3174	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4560	0.4478	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5860	0.4651	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4939	0.4259	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7380	0.6892	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.353

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669699
playerID	669699
playerName	Braden Shewmake
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Cam Smith (701358) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1944

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.512	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.512	4.000	-0.512	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.439	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.439	0.000	0.561	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.683	0.000	-0.683	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.000	-0.041	0.250
predicted_R	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.390	0.000	-0.390	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.299	0.000	-0.299	0.000
predicted_SO	1.146	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.146	0.000	-1.146	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.512	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.439	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.390	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.146	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.501	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.440	0.001
predicted_H	0.650	-0.060
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.015
predicted_OBP	0.287	-0.018
predicted_R	0.347	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.330	-0.030
predicted_SLG	0.331	-0.064
predicted_SO	1.146	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.501	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.436	-0.004
predicted_H	0.630	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.017
predicted_R	0.329	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.313	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.279	-0.052
predicted_SO	1.157	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	0.0000	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1875	0.4375
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	0.1471	0.2368	0.1471	0.1471	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.3235
season	0.60	41	-	144.000	28.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	18.000	47.000	0.1944	0.2909	0.2986	0.1944	0.0208	0.1042	0.1250	0.3264

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4840
predicted_AVG	0.1611
predicted_BB	0.4410
predicted_H	0.5610
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.2615
predicted_R	0.2840
predicted_RBI	0.2860
predicted_SLG	0.2372
predicted_SO	1.1470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.0990	0.1270	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5120	3.4840	3.5007	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1611	0.2104	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4390	0.4410	0.4398	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.5610	0.6497	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0540	0.0754	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2615	0.2874	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3900	0.2840	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.2860	0.3300	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2372	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1460	1.1470	1.1464	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	701358
playerID	701358
playerName	Cam Smith
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 45

All-history rows before 20260515: 45

System season_avg: 0.3210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3212

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	1.000	-0.244	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.321	1.000	-0.321	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.622	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.622	1.000	0.378	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.178	3.000	-1.178	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.311	1.000	-0.311	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.429	1.000	-0.179	-0.750
predicted_R	0.644	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.644	2.000	-0.644	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.642	2.333	-0.642	-2.333
predicted_SO	0.689	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.689	0.000	-0.689	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.622	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.644	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.689	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.643	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.023
predicted_BB	0.616	-0.006
predicted_H	0.929	0.109
predicted_HBP	0.069	-
predicted_HR	0.167	0.057
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.043
predicted_R	0.600	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.071
predicted_SO	0.825	0.136

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.643	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.611	-0.005
predicted_H	0.901	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.069	0.000
predicted_HR	0.162	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.008
predicted_R	0.569	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.426	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.445	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.833	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.0556	0.2222	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	13.000	0.3030	0.4250	0.5455	0.3030	0.0606	0.0909	0.1818	0.3939
season	0.60	45	-	165.000	53.000	11.000	14.000	30.000	29.000	28.000	31.000	0.3212	0.4293	0.6424	0.3212	0.0848	0.1818	0.1697	0.1879

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2210
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6080
predicted_AVG	0.3003
predicted_BB	0.6080
predicted_H	1.0840
predicted_HBP	0.0690
predicted_HR	0.2480
predicted_OBP	0.4087
predicted_R	0.5380
predicted_RBI	0.4930
predicted_SLG	0.5682
predicted_SO	1.0200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.2210	0.2345	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.6080	3.6427	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3003	0.2672	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6220	0.6080	0.6162	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.0840	0.9286	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0690	0.0690	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2480	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.4087	0.3477	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6440	0.5380	0.6004	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4930	0.4500	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5682	0.4663	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6890	1.0200	0.8252	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.321

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Vázquez (543877) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2794

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2790

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.000	0.221	0.500
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.950	0.000	1.050	2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.000	0.162	0.500
predicted_R	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.471	0.000	0.279	0.750
predicted_SO	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.650	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.416	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.282	-0.018
predicted_H	0.720	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.110	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.006
predicted_R	0.342	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.378	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.002
predicted_SO	0.665	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.416	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.280	-0.002
predicted_H	0.698	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.034
predicted_R	0.324	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.359	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.350	-0.047
predicted_SO	0.671	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.1333	0.1875	0.3333	0.1333	0.0667	0.0667	0.0667	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1818	0.2059	0.2727	0.1818	0.0303	0.0606	0.0303	0.1818
season	0.60	20	-	68.000	19.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	7.000	6.000	13.000	0.2794	0.3378	0.4706	0.2794	0.0441	0.1765	0.0882	0.1912

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1330
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4430
predicted_AVG	0.2345
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_H	0.8070
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.2883
predicted_R	0.3280
predicted_RBI	0.4450
predicted_SLG	0.4009
predicted_SO	0.6920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1330	0.1755	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.4430	3.4157	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2345	0.2405	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.2520	0.2825	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8070	0.7201	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1440	0.1097	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2883	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.3280	0.3420	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4450	0.3784	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4009	0.3972	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6500	0.6920	0.6654	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	543877
playerID	543877
playerName	Christian Vázquez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	HOU
teamID	11

Spencer Arrighetti (681293) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 5

All-history rows before 20260515: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	3.400	3.000	-1.400	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.200	1.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.200	5.000	0.800	0.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.640	5.200	-0.440	0.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	6.000	5.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.200	6.000	21.000	17.000	30.000	1.000	1.8837	1.3256	0.2093	0.7326	0.5930	1.0465	0.0349
last_10	0.35	5	28.200	6.000	21.000	17.000	30.000	1.000	1.8837	1.3256	0.2093	0.7326	0.5930	1.0465	0.0349
season	0.20	5	28.200	6.000	21.000	17.000	30.000	1.000	1.8837	1.3256	0.2093	0.7326	0.5930	1.0465	0.0349

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.7610
predicted_ER	1.9140
predicted_ERA	3.0399
predicted_H	4.7370
predicted_HR	0.4640
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.6830
predicted_WHIP	1.3231

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.7610	2.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.9140	1.9623	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0399	3.0399	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.7370	4.8846	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4640	0.2036	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.6830	5.2997	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3231	1.3231	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	6
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	98

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	1
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.88
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681293
playerID	681293
playerName	Spencer Arrighetti
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 15

All-history rows before 20260515: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.533	3.000	1.467	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.200	1.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.053	1.000	0.047	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	3.0000	1.6667	0.3333	1.1667	0.5000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	12.100	6.000	14.000	6.000	7.000	4.3784	1.6216	0.4865	1.1351	0.4865	0.5676
season	0.20	15	17.200	7.000	18.000	8.000	15.000	3.5660	1.4717	0.3962	1.0189	0.4528	0.8491

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5660
predicted_ER	0.5850
predicted_ERA	3.9483
predicted_H	1.3550
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0370
predicted_WHIP	1.4408

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.5660	1.4237	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5850	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9483	3.9483	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3550	1.1427	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1010	0.0406	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0370	0.4167	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4408	1.4408	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.57
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	34
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan Abreu (650556) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 15

All-history rows before 20260515: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.133	1.000	-1.133	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.867	0.000	0.133	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.867	0.000	0.133	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.400	1.000	-1.400	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	0.000	1.6875	1.5000	0.1875	0.7500	0.7500	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	5.000	8.000	10.000	13.000	1.000	4.5000	1.8000	0.5000	0.8000	1.0000	1.3000	0.1000
season	0.20	15	13.200	13.000	13.000	17.000	21.000	4.000	8.5610	2.1951	0.9512	0.9512	1.2439	1.5366	0.2927

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5770
predicted_ER	0.4600
predicted_ERA	4.1434
predicted_H	0.8930
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1280
predicted_WHIP	1.4697

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5770	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4600	0.7968	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1434	4.1434	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8930	0.9597	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1170	0.0440	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1280	0.4245	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4697	1.4697	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	8.56
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	650556
playerID	650556
playerName	Bryan Abreu
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 16

All-history rows before 20260515: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.938	0.000	0.062	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.981	1.100	0.019	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	1.5000	0.3333	0.1667	0.3333	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	7.000	11.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	5.9062	1.3125	0.6562	1.0312	0.2812	0.9375	0.0000
season	0.20	16	17.100	8.000	15.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	4.1538	1.0962	0.4615	0.8654	0.2308	0.9231	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_ER	0.4650
predicted_ERA	3.9418
predicted_H	0.8860
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0200
predicted_WHIP	1.1198

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3020	0.1208	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4650	0.7860	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9418	3.9418	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8860	0.9544	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0860	0.6345	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0200	1.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1198	1.1198	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

20260515_TOR@DET

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.526557, "home_win_probability": 0.526557, "away_win_probability": 0.47344299999999995, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 DET", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 DET", "confidence": 0.526557, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 DET", "winner": "DET"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 2 - 4 DET", "winner": "DET"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	TOR 3 - 4 DET	DET	0.527	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	TOR 2 - 4 DET	DET	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away TOR	3-7	0.300	4	4.10	-1	1W	average	average
Home DET	2-8	0.200	3.20	5.40	-22	3L	cold	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away TOR	19-24	0.442	-14	-0.326	True
Home DET	19-25	0.432	-10	-0.227	True
Signal	-	-	0.098	0.083	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target TOR	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target DET	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized TOR	34	9	4	0	2	2	7
Player finalized DET	33	9	2	0	1	2	9
Player model fractional TOR	32.74	7.57	3.98	0.99	3.86	2.93	6.57
Player model fractional DET	32.27	7.17	3.58	0.85	3.52	3.26	8.40
Simulation box TOR	34	7	2	2	2	3	15
Simulation box DET	28	4	4	1	4	1	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away TOR	Starter	Trey Yesavage	4.10	4	5	4	1	2.88	1.33	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Louis Varland	1.10	0	2	0	0	2.45	1.44	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Tyler Rogers	1	0	0	0	0	4.33	1.51	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Jeff Hoffman	1.10	0	1	0	0	4.17	1.40	True
Home DET	Starter	Brenan Hanifee	3	1	8	3	2	3.45	1.26	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Brant Hurter	1.20	0	2	2	0	2.83	1.07	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Burch Smith	1.10	1	1	1	0	4.46	1.47	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Kenley Jansen	1	0	2	0	1	3.84	1.28	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Kyle Finnegan	2	0	2	1	0	2.46	1.30	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: TOR

George Springer (543807) · BATTER · DH · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 24

All-history rows before 20260515: 24

System season_avg: 0.1960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1957

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	3.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.196	0.000	0.304	0.500
predicted_BB	0.458	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.458	2.000	0.542	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.400	0.312	0.200
predicted_R	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	2.000	0.625	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.292	0.000	0.708	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.315	0.000	0.935	1.250
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.458	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.838	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.430	-0.028
predicted_H	0.875	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.099	-0.021
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.003
predicted_R	0.429	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.394	-0.066
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.819	-0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.838	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.430	0.001
predicted_H	0.877	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.042	0.000
predicted_HR	0.099	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.005
predicted_R	0.431	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.818	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.2368	0.2105	0.0000	0.0263	0.0790	0.1579
season	0.60	24	-	92.000	18.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	11.000	20.000	0.1957	0.2885	0.3152	0.1956	0.0217	0.0761	0.1196	0.2174

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8460
predicted_AVG	0.2172
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_H	0.8350
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.2965
predicted_R	0.5150
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.3184
predicted_SO	0.7970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2080	0.1840	0.1988	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.8460	3.8380	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2172	0.2337	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4580	0.3850	0.4299	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.8350	0.8750	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.0660	0.0992	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2965	0.3017	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.5150	0.4288	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.2890	0.3942	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3184	0.3655	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.7970	0.8192	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.196

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	543807
playerID	543807
playerName	George Springer
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Ernie Clement (676391) · BATTER · 2B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2941

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.310	0.000	-0.310
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.048	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.048	4.000	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.250	-0.044
predicted_BB	0.119	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.119	0.000	-0.119
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.190	1.000	-0.190
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.250	-0.062
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	-0.357
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.024	0.000	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.406	0.250	-0.156
predicted_SO	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	1.000	0.667

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.048	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.119	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.033	-0.015
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.026
predicted_BB	0.120	0.001
predicted_H	1.024	0.144
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.103	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.009
predicted_R	0.399	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.404	-0.046
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.012
predicted_SO	0.388	0.055

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.033	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.120	0.000
predicted_H	1.027	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.103	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.038
predicted_R	0.401	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.406	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.388	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.048

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.5714	0.4286	0.0476	0.0952	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.2821	0.2927	0.3590	0.2821	0.0256	0.0769	0.0256	0.1026
season	0.60	42	-	170.000	50.000	13.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	5.000	14.000	0.2941	0.3125	0.4059	0.2941	0.0118	0.0706	0.0294	0.0824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0120
predicted_AVG	0.3077
predicted_BB	0.1220
predicted_H	1.2340
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_OBP	0.3279
predicted_R	0.4590
predicted_RBI	0.3360
predicted_SLG	0.4245
predicted_SO	0.4690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3100	0.1850	0.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0480	4.0120	4.0333	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3077	0.2700	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1190	0.1220	0.1202	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.2340	1.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0930	0.1031	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3279	0.3143	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.4590	0.3986	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.3360	0.4036	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4245	0.4070	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.4690	0.3884	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	676391
playerID	676391
playerName	Ernie Clement
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (665489) · BATTER · 1B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2903

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2030

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.690	2.000	-0.690	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.524	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.524	3.000	0.476	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.071	0.000	-1.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.600	-0.133	-0.350
predicted_R	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.374	0.000	-0.374	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.524	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.712	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.521	-0.003
predicted_H	0.835	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.082	-0.028
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.006
predicted_R	0.550	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.415	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.043
predicted_SO	0.520	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.712	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.521	0.001
predicted_H	0.837	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.010
predicted_R	0.553	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.417	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.331	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.520	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.1053	0.2174	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.1053	0.1579	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	0.1316	0.2444	0.1316	0.1316	0.0000	0.0790	0.1579	0.1579
season	0.60	42	-	155.000	45.000	7.000	2.000	18.000	24.000	22.000	21.000	0.2903	0.3833	0.3742	0.2903	0.0129	0.1161	0.1419	0.1355

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7430
predicted_AVG	0.2247
predicted_BB	0.5160
predicted_H	0.8410
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.3199
predicted_R	0.5200
predicted_RBI	0.4080
predicted_SLG	0.2894
predicted_SO	0.5500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1120	0.1445	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.7430	3.7116	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2247	0.2361	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5240	0.5160	0.5207	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8410	0.8345	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.0420	0.0822	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3199	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.5200	0.5502	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4080	0.4151	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2894	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5500	0.5204	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	665489
playerID	665489
playerName	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kazuma Okamoto (672960) · BATTER · 3B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 42

All-history rows before 20260515: 42

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2387

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2390

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.690	2.000	0.310	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.011	0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.881	0.000	0.119	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.238	0.000	0.762	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.400	-0.078	-0.150
predicted_R	0.524	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.524	1.000	0.476	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	1.000	0.357	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.458	0.000	0.542	1.000
predicted_SO	1.190	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.190	0.000	0.810	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.524	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.190	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.684	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.509	0.009
predicted_H	0.817	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.030
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.007
predicted_R	0.526	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.496	0.086
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.007
predicted_SO	1.158	-0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.684	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.510	0.001
predicted_H	0.819	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.005
predicted_R	0.529	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.499	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.042
predicted_SO	1.157	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.1667	0.2727	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3636	0.4722	0.2500	0.0556	0.1944	0.1944	0.3333
season	0.60	42	-	155.000	37.000	4.000	10.000	27.000	22.000	21.000	50.000	0.2387	0.3277	0.4581	0.2387	0.0645	0.1742	0.1355	0.3226

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6750
predicted_AVG	0.2291
predicted_BB	0.5220
predicted_H	0.8420
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1740
predicted_OBP	0.3212
predicted_R	0.5290
predicted_RBI	0.6220
predicted_SLG	0.4109
predicted_SO	1.1120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.1440	0.1150	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.6750	3.6839	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2291	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5220	0.5090	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8420	0.8171	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1740	0.1302	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3212	0.3116	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5240	0.5290	0.5260	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.6220	0.4964	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4109	0.4015	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1900	1.1120	1.1582	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	672960
playerID	672960
playerName	Kazuma Okamoto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Yohendrick Pinango (682818) · BATTER · LF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 10

All-history rows before 20260515: 10

System season_avg: 0.3550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3548

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.100	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.100	4.000	0.900	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.355	0.250	-0.105	0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.100	1.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.412	0.400	-0.162	-0.150
predicted_R	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.250	-0.137	0.000
predicted_SO	0.300	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.300	0.000	1.700	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.100	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.100	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.300	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	0.019
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.260	0.160
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.011
predicted_BB	0.307	0.007
predicted_H	0.789	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.079	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.011
predicted_R	0.163	0.063
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.386	0.086

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.260	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.307	0.000
predicted_H	0.791	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.014	0.000
predicted_HR	0.079	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.009
predicted_R	0.164	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.363	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.035
predicted_SO	0.386	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.3158	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.3548	0.4118	0.3871	0.3548	0.1290	0.0968	0.0968
season	0.60	10	-	31.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.3548	0.4118	0.3871	0.3548	0.1290	0.0968	0.0968

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6120
predicted_AVG	0.2785
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_H	1.0060
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3411
predicted_R	0.3020
predicted_RBI	0.3850
predicted_SLG	0.3716
predicted_SO	0.5750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1620	0.1194	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1000	3.6120	3.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2785	0.2548	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.3210	0.3066	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	1.0060	0.7889	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0540	0.0787	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3411	0.3163	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1000	0.3020	0.1632	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3850	0.3610	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3716	0.3877	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3000	0.5750	0.3860	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.355

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	682818
playerID	682818
playerName	Yohendrick Pinango
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Daulton Varsho (662139) · BATTER · CF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 37

All-history rows before 20260515: 37

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.784	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.784	4.000	0.216	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.250	-0.243	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.351	1.000	-0.351	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.919	1.000	-0.919	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	1.000	-0.135	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.400	-0.316	-0.400
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.514	1.000	-0.514	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.351	4.000	-0.351	-4.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.393	1.000	-0.393	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.784	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.784	1.000	1.216	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.784	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.351	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.784	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.821	0.037
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.008
predicted_BB	0.341	-0.010
predicted_H	0.891	0.091
predicted_HBP	0.033	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.009
predicted_R	0.536	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.006
predicted_SO	0.830	0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.341	0.001
predicted_H	0.893	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.033	0.000
predicted_HR	0.115	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.018
predicted_R	0.539	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.435	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.036
predicted_SO	0.828	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.4762	0.3333	0.0476	0.1905	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.2821	0.3488	0.4103	0.2821	0.0256	0.1282	0.1026	0.2564
season	0.60	37	-	140.000	34.000	6.000	5.000	13.000	19.000	13.000	29.000	0.2429	0.3161	0.3929	0.2429	0.0357	0.0929	0.0929	0.2071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8750
predicted_AVG	0.2648
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_H	1.0260
predicted_HBP	0.0330
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.3278
predicted_R	0.5700
predicted_RBI	0.4660
predicted_SLG	0.4100
predicted_SO	0.8970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1470	0.1560	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7840	3.8750	3.8206	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2648	0.2524	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3510	0.3250	0.3405	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	1.0260	0.8910	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0330	0.0330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1370	0.1149	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3278	0.3142	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.5700	0.5365	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4660	0.4325	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4100	0.4010	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7840	0.8970	0.8295	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	662139
playerID	662139
playerName	Daulton Varsho
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Brandon Valenzuela (678218) · BATTER · C · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2373

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.105	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.105	3.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.368	1.000	0.632	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	0.000	-0.737	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.250	-0.068	0.000
predicted_R	0.526	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_SO	1.053	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.053	2.000	0.947	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.105	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.368	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.053	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.076	0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.162	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.004
predicted_BB	0.399	0.031
predicted_H	0.689	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.043
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.014
predicted_R	0.556	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.415	0.105
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.030
predicted_SO	1.010	-0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.076	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.162	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.399	0.001
predicted_H	0.691	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.123	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.013
predicted_R	0.559	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.417	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.064
predicted_SO	1.009	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.2857	0.4444	0.5714	0.2857	0.0714	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	0.3000	0.4167	0.6333	0.3000	0.1000	0.2667	0.2000	0.2667
season	0.60	19	-	59.000	14.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	10.000	7.000	20.000	0.2373	0.3182	0.4576	0.2373	0.0678	0.1695	0.1186	0.3390

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1180
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2650
predicted_AVG	0.2546
predicted_BB	0.4540
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_OBP	0.3451
predicted_R	0.6090
predicted_RBI	0.6030
predicted_SLG	0.4777
predicted_SO	0.9340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0530	0.1180	0.0763	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1050	3.2650	3.1624	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2546	0.2478	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3680	0.4540	0.3988	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.8310	0.6892	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.2010	0.1234	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3451	0.3194	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.6090	0.5558	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.6030	0.4151	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4777	0.4247	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0530	0.9340	1.0103	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	678218
playerID	678218
playerName	Brandon Valenzuela
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TOR
teamID	29

Andrés Giménez (665926) · BATTER · SS · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 37

All-history rows before 20260515: 37

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2574

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	3.000	0.324	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.333	0.243	0.167
predicted_BB	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.946	1.000	1.054	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.285	0.500	0.215	0.000
predicted_R	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.622	0.000	-0.622	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.426	0.333	0.074	0.167
predicted_SO	0.622	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.622	0.000	0.378	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.676	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.108	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.324	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.622	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.023	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.661	-0.015
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.105	-0.003
predicted_H	0.780	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.101	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.036
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.015
predicted_R	0.339	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.513	0.133
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.013
predicted_SO	0.649	0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.661	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.105	0.000
predicted_H	0.782	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.101	0.000
predicted_HR	0.136	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.236	-0.054
predicted_R	0.341	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.516	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.376	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.648	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2105	0.5294	0.1765	0.1177	0.3529	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.1944	0.2308	0.3611	0.1944	0.0556	0.1944	0.0000	0.1667
season	0.60	37	-	136.000	35.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	23.000	12.000	4.000	23.000	0.2574	0.2847	0.4265	0.2574	0.0368	0.1691	0.0294	0.1691

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.6380
predicted_AVG	0.2312
predicted_BB	0.1000
predicted_H	0.8410
predicted_HBP	0.1010
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_OBP	0.2671
predicted_R	0.3620
predicted_RBI	0.7130
predicted_SLG	0.4272
predicted_SO	0.6890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1090	0.1408	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0160	0.0226	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6760	3.6380	3.6608	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2312	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1080	0.1000	0.1048	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8410	0.7804	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1010	0.1010	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1910	0.1364	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2671	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3240	0.3620	0.3392	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.7130	0.5131	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4272	0.4079	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6220	0.6890	0.6488	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	665926
playerID	665926
playerName	Andrés Giménez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jesús Sánchez (660821) · BATTER · RF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 31

All-history rows before 20260515: 31

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2703

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2700

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.581	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.581	2.000	0.419	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.270	1.000	-0.270	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.968	2.000	-0.968	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	1.000	-0.311	-1.000
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.516	0.000	-0.516	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.441	1.000	-0.441	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.774	4.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.774	0.000	3.226	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.581	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.774	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.568	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.012
predicted_BB	0.196	0.002
predicted_H	0.851	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.090	-
predicted_HR	0.121	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.008
predicted_R	0.459	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.410	0.015
predicted_SO	0.815	0.041

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.568	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.196	0.000
predicted_H	0.853	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.090	0.000
predicted_HR	0.121	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.034
predicted_R	0.461	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.036
predicted_SO	0.814	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	4.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4118	0.5333	0.3333	0.0667	0.1333	0.0667	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	0.2703	0.3077	0.3514	0.2703	0.0270	0.0541	0.0270	0.2162
season	0.60	31	-	111.000	30.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	13.000	6.000	24.000	0.2703	0.3115	0.4414	0.2703	0.0450	0.1441	0.0541	0.2162

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5490
predicted_AVG	0.2752
predicted_BB	0.1980
predicted_H	0.9770
predicted_HBP	0.0900
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_OBP	0.3258
predicted_R	0.5200
predicted_RBI	0.4400
predicted_SLG	0.4324
predicted_SO	0.8780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.0950	0.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5810	3.5490	3.5684	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2752	0.2562	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.1980	0.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9770	0.8512	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0900	0.0900	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1530	0.1208	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3258	0.3132	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.5200	0.4586	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4400	0.4096	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.4324	0.4097	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7740	0.8780	0.8148	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	4
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	660821
playerID	660821
playerName	Jesús Sánchez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Trey Yesavage (702056) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 3

All-history rows before 20260515: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.667	2.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	3.667	4.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.333	4.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.367	4.000	-0.267	0.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.000	6.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	13.100	1.000	13.000	5.000	15.000	0.6750	1.3500	0.0750	0.9750	0.3750	1.1250
last_10	0.35	3	13.100	1.000	13.000	5.000	15.000	0.6750	1.3500	0.0750	0.9750	0.3750	1.1250
season	0.20	3	13.100	1.000	13.000	5.000	15.000	0.6750	1.3500	0.0750	0.9750	0.3750	1.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7210
predicted_ER	1.4510
predicted_ERA	2.8757
predicted_H	4.3260
predicted_HR	0.3660
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.6390
predicted_WHIP	1.3316

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.7210	1.2783	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	1.4510	3.0162	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8757	2.8757	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.3260	4.1258	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.3660	0.7553	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.6390	4.8607	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3316	1.3316	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	5
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	81

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	17
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.68
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	702056
playerID	702056
playerName	Trey Yesavage
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Louis Varland (686973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 21

All-history rows before 20260515: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.810	2.000	-0.810	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.910	1.000	0.190	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.524	2.000	0.476	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.0000	1.7143	0.0000	0.8571	0.8571	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	9.000	6.000	13.000	0.9643	1.6071	0.1071	0.9643	0.6429	1.3929
season	0.20	21	21.200	1.000	17.000	9.000	32.000	0.4154	1.2000	0.0461	0.7846	0.4154	1.4769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5260
predicted_ER	0.2720
predicted_ERA	2.4484
predicted_H	0.9120
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0560
predicted_WHIP	1.4378

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5260	0.2225	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2720	0.1151	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4484	2.4484	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9120	0.3858	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0690	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0560	1.6006	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4378	1.4378	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	7

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	686973
playerID	686973
playerName	Louis Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Rogers (643511) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.885	0.200	0.115	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	6.7500	2.5000	0.7500	2.0000	0.5000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	3.000	8.000	2.000	7.000	3.1154	1.1538	0.3462	0.9231	0.2308	0.8077
season	0.20	20	19.100	4.000	16.000	6.000	12.000	1.8621	1.1379	0.2069	0.8276	0.3103	0.6207

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_ER	0.4500
predicted_ERA	4.3283
predicted_H	1.0610
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8550
predicted_WHIP	1.5100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3510	0.1443	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4500	0.1850	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3283	4.3283	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0610	0.4362	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0680	0.0280	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8550	0.3515	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5100	1.5100	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	643511
playerID	643511
playerName	Tyler Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jeff Hoffman (656546) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.300	2.000	-1.300	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.875	1.000	0.225	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.600	0.000	-0.600	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	1.4000	0.0000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	4.000	13.000	1.000	12.000	1.000	3.8571	1.5000	0.4286	1.3929	0.1071	1.2857	0.1071
season	0.20	20	18.200	12.000	26.000	7.000	32.000	3.000	5.7857	1.7679	0.6429	1.3929	0.3750	1.7143	0.1607

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1650
predicted_ER	0.2860
predicted_ERA	4.1667
predicted_H	0.7000
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6430
predicted_WHIP	1.4007

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1650	0.0672	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2860	0.1166	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1667	4.1667	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7000	0.2853	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0880	0.0359	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6430	0.8545	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4007	1.4007	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.79
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	656546
playerID	656546
playerName	Jeff Hoffman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Home Team: DET

Dillon Dingler (693307) · BATTER · C · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 34

All-history rows before 20260515: 34

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2443

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.853	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.853	4.000	-0.853	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.250	-0.244	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.265	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.265	0.000	0.735	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	1.000	-0.941	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.250	-0.062	0.000
predicted_R	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.794	1.000	-0.794	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.489	1.000	-0.489	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.794	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.794	0.000	0.206	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.853	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.265	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.794	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.246	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.869	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.271	0.006
predicted_H	0.893	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.065	-
predicted_HR	0.167	0.057
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.001
predicted_R	0.483	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.534	0.094
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.044
predicted_SO	0.825	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.246	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.869	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.001
predicted_H	0.879	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.065	0.000
predicted_HR	0.164	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.027
predicted_R	0.470	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.520	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.418	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.829	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.853

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.6500	0.2500	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	9.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.2250	0.2619	0.5250	0.2250	0.0750	0.2000	0.0500	0.2500
season	0.60	34	-	131.000	32.000	8.000	8.000	27.000	16.000	9.000	27.000	0.2443	0.3125	0.4885	0.2443	0.0611	0.2061	0.0687	0.2061

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2620
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8920
predicted_AVG	0.2420
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_H	0.9420
predicted_HBP	0.0650
predicted_HR	0.2520
predicted_OBP	0.3038
predicted_R	0.5010
predicted_RBI	0.6750
predicted_SLG	0.5051
predicted_SO	0.8720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.2620	0.2458	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8530	3.8920	3.8686	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2420	0.2432	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2650	0.2800	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9420	0.8928	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0650	0.0650	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.2520	0.1667	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3038	0.3045	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.5010	0.4830	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.6750	0.5339	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5051	0.4390	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7940	0.8720	0.8252	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	693307
playerID	693307
playerName	Dillon Dingler
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	DET
teamID	10

Colt Keith (690993) · BATTER · DH · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 30

All-history rows before 20260515: 30

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.250	-0.330	-0.250
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.000	-0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	0.933	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.933	3.000	0.067	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.933	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.494	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.012
predicted_BB	0.226	0.026
predicted_H	0.848	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.030
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.011
predicted_R	0.448	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.304	-0.096
predicted_SLG	0.380	-0.015
predicted_SO	0.964	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.494	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.225	-0.001
predicted_H	0.834	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.285	-0.031
predicted_R	0.436	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.296	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.968	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.1250	0.4375
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.3030	0.3784	0.3333	0.3030	0.0000	0.0909	0.3030
season	0.60	30	-	105.000	30.000	8.000	4.000	14.000	6.000	28.000	0.2857	0.3304	0.3619	0.2857	0.0381	0.0571	0.2667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2110
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4840
predicted_AVG	0.2740
predicted_BB	0.2680
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.3331
predicted_R	0.4170
predicted_RBI	0.1540
predicted_SLG	0.3565
predicted_SO	1.0120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.2110	0.2453	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.4840	3.4938	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2740	0.2556	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2680	0.2264	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9540	0.8475	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0240	0.0705	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3331	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.4170	0.4476	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.1540	0.3045	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3565	0.3801	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9330	1.0120	0.9637	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	690993
playerID	690993
playerName	Colt Keith
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	DET
teamID	10

Gage Workman (669398) · BATTER · 3B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 2

All-history rows before 20260515: 2

System season_avg: 0.3750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3750

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.375	0.500	-0.375	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.500	2.000	-1.500	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.500	-0.375	-0.500
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.500	3.000	-1.500	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.500	Hitting_SLG	1.000	1.500	-1.000	-1.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	1.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.857	-0.143
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.965	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.006
predicted_BB	0.050	0.050
predicted_H	0.892	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.003
predicted_R	0.499	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.493	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.423	0.028
predicted_SO	0.975	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.857	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.965	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.050	-0.000
predicted_H	0.878	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.025	0.000
predicted_HR	0.127	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.231	-0.077
predicted_R	0.486	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.479	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.562	0.140
predicted_SO	0.979	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	2	-	8.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.3750	0.3750	1.0000	0.3750	0.1250	0.3750	0.2500
last_10	0.20	2	-	8.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.3750	0.3750	1.0000	0.3750	0.1250	0.3750	0.2500
season	0.60	2	-	8.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.3750	0.3750	1.0000	0.3750	0.1250	0.3750	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3450
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.8390
predicted_AVG	0.2714
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_H	1.0420
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.1980
predicted_OBP	0.3200
predicted_R	0.4960
predicted_RBI	0.6800
predicted_SLG	0.5219
predicted_SO	0.8850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	1.0000	0.3450	0.8565	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8390	3.9647	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2714	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2270	0.0497	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	1.0420	0.8921	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1980	0.1293	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3200	0.3083	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4960	0.4991	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.6800	0.4926	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5219	0.4228	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8850	0.9748	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.375

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	669398
playerID	669398
playerName	Gage Workman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Kevin McGonigle (805808) · BATTER · SS · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2949

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_3B	0.049	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.049	0.000	0.951	1.000
predicted_AB	3.805	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.805	4.000	0.195	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.000	-0.045	0.250
predicted_BB	0.634	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.634	0.000	-0.634	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.122	0.000	-0.122	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.402	0.000	-0.152	0.250
predicted_R	0.659	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.659	0.000	0.341	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.390	0.000	-0.390	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.436	0.000	0.314	0.750
predicted_SO	0.585	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.585	2.000	0.415	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	-
predicted_3B	0.049	-
predicted_AB	3.805	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.634	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.585	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.266	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.040	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.762	-0.043
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.013
predicted_BB	0.632	-0.002
predicted_H	0.942	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.084	-
predicted_HR	0.088	-0.032
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.035
predicted_R	0.619	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.400	-0.060
predicted_SLG	0.391	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.603	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.266	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.762	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.629	-0.003
predicted_H	0.927	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.084	0.000
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.014
predicted_R	0.602	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.389	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.016
predicted_SO	0.606	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.805

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.2941	0.4545	0.3529	0.2941	0.0000	0.0000	0.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.2500	0.2222	0.0000	0.0833	0.1944	0.1667
season	0.60	41	-	156.000	46.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	27.000	26.000	24.000	0.2949	0.4022	0.4359	0.2949	0.0128	0.1026	0.1667	0.1538

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.6990
predicted_AVG	0.2751
predicted_BB	0.6300
predicted_H	1.0180
predicted_HBP	0.0840
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.3910
predicted_R	0.5610
predicted_RBI	0.3130
predicted_SLG	0.3839
predicted_SO	0.6290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2930	0.2260	0.2656	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0490	0.0260	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8050	3.6990	3.7616	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2751	0.2567	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6340	0.6300	0.6324	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0180	0.9424	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0840	0.0840	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.0410	0.0877	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3910	0.3402	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.5610	0.6189	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.3130	0.3999	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3839	0.3905	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5850	0.6290	0.6030	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	805808
playerID	805808
playerName	Kevin McGonigle
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	DET
teamID	10

Riley Greene (682985) · BATTER · LF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 43

All-history rows before 20260515: 43

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.302	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.302	0.000	-0.302	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.628	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.628	3.000	-0.628	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.667	-0.333	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.605	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.605	1.000	-0.605	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.209	2.000	-1.209	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.429	0.750	-0.429	-0.750
predicted_R	0.628	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.628	1.000	-0.628	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.494	0.667	-0.494	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.116	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.116	0.000	-0.116	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.302	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.628	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.605	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.628	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.116	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.316	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.634	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.051
predicted_BB	0.601	-0.004
predicted_H	1.016	0.226
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.014
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.061
predicted_R	0.588	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.435	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.049
predicted_SO	1.064	-0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.316	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.634	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.598	-0.003
predicted_H	1.000	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.084	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.011
predicted_R	0.573	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.423	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.432	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.069	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.5000	0.5909	0.6111	0.5000	0.0000	0.1667	0.2222	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	16.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	11.000	0.4444	0.5238	0.5833	0.4444	0.0000	0.0833	0.1667	0.3056
season	0.60	43	-	156.000	52.000	13.000	4.000	22.000	27.000	26.000	48.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.4936	0.3333	0.0256	0.1410	0.1667	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6420
predicted_AVG	0.3683
predicted_BB	0.5940
predicted_H	1.3420
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.4554
predicted_R	0.5310
predicted_RBI	0.4850
predicted_SLG	0.5152
predicted_SO	0.9890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3020	0.3370	0.3163	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6280	3.6420	3.6337	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.3683	0.2948	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6050	0.5940	0.6005	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	1.3420	1.0156	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0650	0.0857	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.4554	0.3665	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6280	0.5310	0.5884	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4850	0.4347	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.5152	0.4441	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1160	0.9890	1.0641	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	682985
playerID	682985
playerName	Riley Greene
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	DET
teamID	10

Zach McKinstry (656716) · BATTER · RF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 19

All-history rows before 20260515: 19

System season_avg: 0.1770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1774

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.263	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.263	4.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.177	0.250	0.156	0.083
predicted_BB	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.579	1.000	0.421	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.083	0.083
predicted_R	0.105	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.105	0.000	0.895	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.258	0.250	0.075	0.083
predicted_SO	0.789	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.263	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.316	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.105	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.789	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.305	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.329	0.013
predicted_H	0.678	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.013
predicted_R	0.137	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.318	-0.042
predicted_SLG	0.351	-0.044
predicted_SO	0.782	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.305	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.327	-0.002
predicted_H	0.667	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.076	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.274	-0.018
predicted_R	0.134	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.309	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.304	-0.047
predicted_SO	0.786	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	0.1333	0.2778	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.1562	0.2286	0.1875	0.1562	0.0000	0.0000	0.0938	0.2188
season	0.60	19	-	62.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	15.000	0.1774	0.2500	0.2581	0.1774	0.0161	0.0806	0.0968	0.2419

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3810
predicted_AVG	0.1887
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_H	0.6380
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.2678
predicted_R	0.1950
predicted_RBI	0.2420
predicted_SLG	0.2727
predicted_SO	0.7700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1090	0.1064	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2630	3.3810	3.3055	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1887	0.2241	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3160	0.3510	0.3286	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.6380	0.6777	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0560	0.0777	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2678	0.2916	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1050	0.1950	0.1374	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.2420	0.3175	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.2727	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7890	0.7700	0.7822	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.177

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	656716
playerID	656716
playerName	Zach McKinstry
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	DET
teamID	10

Matt Vierling (663837) · BATTER · CF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 26

All-history rows before 20260515: 26

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2043

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2040

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.346	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.346	0.000	0.654	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.577	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.577	4.000	-0.577	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.129	0.333
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	1.000	-0.385	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.731	0.000	0.269	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.200	0.054	0.133
predicted_R	0.308	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	0.000	1.462	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.333	0.667
predicted_SO	0.654	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.654	1.000	0.346	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.346	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.577	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.654	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.634	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.395	0.010
predicted_H	0.740	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.085	-0.015
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.013
predicted_R	0.300	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.367	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.682	0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.634	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.394	-0.002
predicted_H	0.728	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.084	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.014
predicted_R	0.292	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.426	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.685	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.1000	0.2174	0.2000	0.1000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	0.1579	0.2558	0.3158	0.1579	0.0263	0.1579	0.1316	0.1842
season	0.60	26	-	93.000	19.000	9.000	1.000	14.000	8.000	10.000	17.000	0.2043	0.2788	0.3333	0.2043	0.0107	0.1505	0.1075	0.1828

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3110
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7260
predicted_AVG	0.1898
predicted_BB	0.4120
predicted_H	0.7070
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.2717
predicted_R	0.2880
predicted_RBI	0.5140
predicted_SLG	0.3236
predicted_SO	0.7270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3460	0.3110	0.3325	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5770	3.7260	3.6343	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1898	0.2232	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.4120	0.3954	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.7070	0.7396	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0610	0.0850	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2717	0.2922	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.2880	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.5140	0.4377	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3236	0.3675	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6540	0.7270	0.6821	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	663837
playerID	663837
playerName	Matt Vierling
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	DET
teamID	10

Hao-Yu Lee (701678) · BATTER · 2B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 13

All-history rows before 20260515: 13

System season_avg: 0.1750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1750

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	1.000	-0.077	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.077	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.077	2.000	-0.077	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.175	0.500	-0.175	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.233	0.500	-0.233	-0.500
predicted_R	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	1.000	-0.308	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.275	1.500	-0.275	-1.500
predicted_SO	1.154	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.154	0.000	-1.154	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	3.077	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.231	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.154	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.076	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.165	0.088
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.017
predicted_R	0.269	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.334	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.371	-0.024
predicted_SO	1.123	-0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.000
predicted_3B	0.076	0.000
predicted_AB	3.165	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.230	-0.001
predicted_H	0.611	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.011	0.000
predicted_HR	0.067	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.248	-0.040
predicted_R	0.262	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.325	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.351	-0.020
predicted_SO	1.128	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.1333	0.1333	0.2667	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	0.1724	0.2500	0.2759	0.1724	0.1035	0.1035	0.3793
season	0.60	13	-	40.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	15.000	0.1750	0.2326	0.2750	0.1750	0.1000	0.0750	0.3750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0740
predicted_AB	3.3430
predicted_AVG	0.1981
predicted_BB	0.2320
predicted_H	0.6620
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.2529
predicted_R	0.3470
predicted_RBI	0.3820
predicted_SLG	0.3232
predicted_SO	1.0590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1380	0.1487	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.0740	0.0760	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0770	3.3430	3.1647	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1981	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2320	0.2313	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6620	0.6204	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0440	0.0681	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2529	0.2878	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2310	0.3470	0.2693	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3820	0.3337	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3232	0.3713	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1540	1.0590	1.1227	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.175

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	701678
playerID	701678
playerName	Hao-Yu Lee
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Spencer Torkelson (679529) · BATTER · 1B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 41

All-history rows before 20260515: 41

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.415	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.415	3.000	-0.415	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.133	0.333
predicted_BB	0.585	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.585	0.000	-0.585	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.683	0.000	0.317	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	0.854	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.250	0.014	0.083
predicted_R	0.341	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.341	0.000	0.659	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.390	0.000	1.610	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.000	0.948	1.333
predicted_SO	1.293	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.293	1.000	-0.293	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.415	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.585	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.341	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.293	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.443	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.542	-0.042
predicted_H	0.662	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.069	-
predicted_HR	0.098	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.008
predicted_R	0.331	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.358	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.026
predicted_SO	1.346	0.053

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.443	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.540	-0.002
predicted_H	0.651	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.069	0.000
predicted_HR	0.097	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.002
predicted_R	0.322	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.349	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.330	-0.038
predicted_SO	1.352	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.796

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	0.1176	0.2381	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.5294
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	19.000	0.1143	0.2195	0.2571	0.1143	0.0286	0.1143	0.1143	0.5429
season	0.60	41	-	140.000	28.000	8.000	6.000	16.000	14.000	24.000	53.000	0.2000	0.3193	0.3857	0.2000	0.0429	0.1143	0.1714	0.3786

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4850
predicted_AVG	0.1782
predicted_BB	0.4800
predicted_H	0.6210
predicted_HBP	0.0690
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.2865
predicted_R	0.3150
predicted_RBI	0.3710
predicted_SLG	0.3298
predicted_SO	1.4240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.1950	0.1950	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4150	3.4850	3.4434	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.1782	0.2173	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5850	0.4800	0.5425	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.6210	0.6620	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0690	0.0690	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1100	0.0981	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.2865	0.2975	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3410	0.3150	0.3305	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3710	0.3585	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3298	0.3686	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2930	1.4240	1.3461	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	679529
playerID	679529
playerName	Spencer Torkelson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	DET
teamID	10

Brenan Hanifee (669724) · PITCHER · Starter · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 6

All-history rows before 20260515: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.167	0.000	1.833	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	1.000	0.833	0.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.333	1.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.233	1.000	1.767	2.000
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_SO	0.667	0.000	7.333	8.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	1.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.2273	1.0909	0.1364	0.9546	0.1364	0.5454	0.1364
last_10	0.35	6	8.100	1.000	8.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.0800	1.0800	0.1200	0.9600	0.1200	0.4800	0.1200
season	0.20	6	8.100	1.000	8.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.0800	1.0800	0.1200	0.9600	0.1200	0.4800	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0670
predicted_ER	1.2790
predicted_ERA	3.4519
predicted_H	3.1470
predicted_HR	0.4350
predicted_IP	3.1000
predicted_SO	2.8490
predicted_WHIP	1.2630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.0670	1.6896	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.2790	1.0928	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4519	3.4519	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	3.1470	3.0489	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4350	0.8120	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	3.1000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	2.8490	6.2862	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2630	1.2630	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	8
HR	1
BF	14
Pitches	67

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.08
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	669724
playerID	669724
playerName	Brenan Hanifee
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Brant Hurter (676428) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 18

All-history rows before 20260515: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.983	1.100	0.217	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	1.000	1.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	1.1250	0.8750	0.1250	0.5000	0.3750	0.8750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	15.100	2.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	0.000	1.1739	0.6522	0.1304	0.4565	0.1956	0.7174	0.0000
season	0.20	17	21.200	4.000	12.000	6.000	15.000	1.000	1.6615	0.8308	0.1846	0.5538	0.2769	0.6923	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4960
predicted_ER	0.4580
predicted_ERA	2.8320
predicted_H	1.0690
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2790
predicted_WHIP	1.0741

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4960	0.2098	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4580	0.1938	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8320	2.8320	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0690	1.6061	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1070	0.0453	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2790	1.6950	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0741	1.0741	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	676428
playerID	676428
playerName	Brant Hurter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Burch Smith (572143) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 9

All-history rows before 20260515: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	2.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.444	1.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.256	0.100	-0.156	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.889	1.000	-0.889	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.2857	0.6429	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	9	12.000	5.000	13.000	6.000	17.000	1.000	3.7500	1.5833	0.4167	1.0833	0.5000	1.4167	0.0833
season	0.20	9	12.000	5.000	13.000	6.000	17.000	1.000	3.7500	1.5833	0.4167	1.0833	0.5000	1.4167	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5680
predicted_ER	0.6270
predicted_ERA	4.4574
predicted_H	1.3000
predicted_HR	0.1780
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3700
predicted_WHIP	1.4742

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5680	0.2068	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6270	0.8642	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4574	4.4574	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3000	1.1092	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1780	0.7008	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3700	1.1347	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4742	1.4742	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	572143
playerID	572143
playerName	Burch Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kenley Jansen (445276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 13

All-history rows before 20260515: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.723	1.000	0.277	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.154	3.000	0.846	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	1.000	3.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.6429	0.6429	1.7143	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	11.000	1.000	2.0000	1.1111	0.2222	0.6667	0.4444	1.2222	0.1111
season	0.20	12	10.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	15.000	2.000	2.6129	1.0645	0.2903	0.6774	0.3871	1.4516	0.1935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4220
predicted_ER	0.4260
predicted_ERA	3.8355
predicted_H	0.8570
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1140
predicted_WHIP	1.2797

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4220	0.7974	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4260	0.1493	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8355	3.8355	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8570	0.3004	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1420	0.0498	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1140	1.6894	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2797	1.2797	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.35
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	445276
playerID	445276
playerName	Kenley Jansen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kyle Finnegan (640448) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260515: 20

All-history rows before 20260515: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.940	1.100	1.060	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.700	1.000	1.300	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3333	0.0000	0.6667	0.6667	0.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	1.000	8.000	6.000	11.000	1.000	0.7714	1.2000	0.0857	0.6857	0.5143	0.9429	0.0857
season	0.20	19	20.200	1.000	12.000	14.000	14.000	1.000	0.4355	1.2581	0.0484	0.5806	0.6774	0.6774	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5460
predicted_ER	0.3070
predicted_ERA	2.4639
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9390
predicted_WHIP	1.2985

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5460	0.2283	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3070	0.1284	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4639	2.4639	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9090	0.9619	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0414	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9390	1.5564	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2985	1.2985	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	33

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.31
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	640448
playerID	640448
playerName	Kyle Finnegan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10