Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260514

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260514_CHC@ATL 20260514_COL@PIT 20260514_DET@NYM 20260514_KC@CHW 20260514_MIA@MIN 20260514_PHI@BOS 20260514_SD@MIL 20260514_SEA@HOU 20260514_SF@LAD 20260514_STL@OAK 20260514_WAS@CIN

20260514_CHC@ATL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 6 - 7 ATL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 6 - 7 ATL", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CHC 6 - 7 ATL", "winner": "ATL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "CHC 3 - 8 ATL", "winner": "ATL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -3, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CHC 6 - 7 ATL	ATL	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CHC 3 - 8 ATL	ATL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CHC	6-4	0.600	4.10	3.80	3	4L	average	average
Home ATL	7-3	0.700	5.20	2.70	25	4W	hot	strong

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-13	CHC @ ATL	1 - 4	ATL	3	blowout
2026-05-12	CHC @ ATL	2 - 5	ATL	3	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CHC	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Game target ATL	-	-	7	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CHC	33	8	3	0	3	4	9
Player finalized ATL	35	9	5	0	4	1	9
Player model fractional CHC	31.82	6.16	4.26	0.85	3.43	4.54	7.87
Player model fractional ATL	33.42	8.34	4.53	1.32	4.46	2.68	7.20
Simulation box CHC	32	5	3	0	3	9	7
Simulation box ATL	37	13	8	0	8	4	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CHC	Starter	Ben Brown	4.10	1	5	4	2	2.48	0.99	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Jacob Webb	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.38	1.19	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Phil Maton	1.10	7	0	7	2	5.00	1.37	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Palencia	1	0	1	1	0	4.12	1.30	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Ryan Rolison	1	1	3	1	0	4.82	1.53	-
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Hoby Milner	0.20	1	0	1	0	3.53	1.29	-
Home ATL	Starter	Chris Sale	3.10	1	3	2	4	2.61	1.05	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Aaron Bummer	1.20	0	1	1	0	4.90	1.47	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Raisel Iglesias	1.10	0	1	0	2	2.78	1.12	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Robert Suarez	1.10	0	1	0	0	2.48	1.19	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Dylan Lee	1	0	0	0	1	2.51	0.83	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Tyler Kinley	0.10	2	1	2	2	5.72	1.53	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CHC

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2679

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.098	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.098	4.000	-1.098	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.250	-0.268	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.415	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.415	0.000	1.585	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.098	1.000	-1.098	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.056	0.150
predicted_R	0.463	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.463	0.000	-0.463	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.707	1.000	-0.707	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.282	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.405	0.250	-0.405	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.366	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.268	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.098	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.415	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.463	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.282	-
predicted_SO	0.366	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.052	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	-0.063
predicted_H	0.766	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.000
predicted_R	0.330	-0.133
predicted_RBI	0.345	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.282	0.000
predicted_SO	0.322	-0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.098

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.1951	0.2609	0.2683	0.1951	0.0000	0.0732	0.0976	0.0244
season	0.20	41	-	168.000	45.000	11.000	4.000	29.000	19.000	17.000	15.000	0.2679	0.3438	0.4048	0.2679	0.0238	0.1726	0.1012	0.0893

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2380
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0200
predicted_AVG	0.1967
predicted_BB	0.3080
predicted_H	0.7910
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.2538
predicted_R	0.2390
predicted_RBI	0.3550
predicted_SLG	0.2824
predicted_SO	0.2920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2680	0.2380	0.2502	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0980	4.0200	4.0518	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1967	0.1968	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4150	0.3080	0.3516	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7910	0.7662	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0324	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2538	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4630	0.2390	0.3302	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3550	0.3448	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2820	0.2824	0.2822	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3660	0.2920	0.3221	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Miguel Amaya (665804) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2281

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	2.000	-1.167	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.500	-0.228	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.389	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.389	1.000	1.611	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.722	1.000	-0.722	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.750	0.157	-0.250
predicted_R	0.556	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	1.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	2.000	-0.444	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.351	0.500	-0.351	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.889	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.389	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.055	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.181	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.462	0.073
predicted_H	0.645	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.232	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.814	-0.075

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.2308	0.4737	0.4615	0.2308	0.0769	0.3077	0.3077	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.2812	0.1875	0.0312	0.1250	0.1250	0.2188
season	0.20	18	-	57.000	13.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	10.000	7.000	16.000	0.2281	0.3433	0.3509	0.2281	0.0351	0.1404	0.1228	0.2807

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0540
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.1940
predicted_AVG	0.2240
predicted_BB	0.5300
predicted_H	0.7150
predicted_HBP	0.2320
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3654
predicted_R	0.5560
predicted_RBI	0.5860
predicted_SLG	0.3819
predicted_SO	0.7440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.0540	0.0550	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.1940	3.1810	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2240	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3890	0.5300	0.4622	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7150	0.6453	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2320	0.2320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1480	0.1345	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3654	0.3652	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.5560	0.5560	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5860	0.5302	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3819	0.3819	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	0.7440	0.8137	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	665804
playerID	665804
playerName	Miguel Amaya
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Alex Bregman (608324) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2364

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	4.024	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.024	4.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.500	-0.236	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.537	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.537	0.000	0.463	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.951	2.000	-0.951	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.500	-0.128	-0.300
predicted_R	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.390	0.000	-0.390	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.352	0.500	-0.352	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.780	1.000	0.220	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	4.024	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.537	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.390	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.363	-
predicted_SO	0.780	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.978	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.433	-0.104
predicted_H	0.891	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.485	0.095
predicted_RBI	0.251	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.000
predicted_SO	0.940	0.160

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=24.0, weight=0.178, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.024

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4000	0.2500	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	11.000	0.2051	0.2955	0.3077	0.2051	0.0256	0.0513	0.1282	0.2821
season	0.20	41	-	165.000	39.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	13.000	16.000	22.000	32.000	0.2364	0.3280	0.3515	0.2364	0.0242	0.0788	0.1333	0.1939

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0770
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.9460
predicted_AVG	0.2333
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_H	0.9200
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.2986
predicted_R	0.5500
predicted_RBI	0.2590
predicted_SLG	0.3630
predicted_SO	1.0500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.0770	0.0954	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0133	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0240	3.9460	3.9778	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2333	0.2332	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5370	0.3610	0.4328	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9200	0.8914	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1410	0.1365	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2986	0.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3900	0.5500	0.4847	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2590	0.2513	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3630	0.3630	0.3630	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7800	1.0500	0.9399	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	608324
playerID	608324
playerName	Alex Bregman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2252

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.683	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.683	3.000	-0.683	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.659	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.659	1.000	0.341	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	0.000	-0.829	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.423	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.250	-0.096	0.000
predicted_R	0.415	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.415	0.000	-0.415	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.537	0.000	-0.537	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_SO	0.976	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.976	2.000	0.024	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.683	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.659	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.423	-
predicted_R	0.415	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.391	-
predicted_SO	0.976	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.003
predicted_3B	0.031	0.007
predicted_AB	3.388	-0.295
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.859	0.200
predicted_H	0.795	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.423	0.000
predicted_R	0.348	-0.067
predicted_RBI	0.701	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.000
predicted_SO	0.898	-0.078

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	0.2143	0.4500	0.2857	0.2143	0.0000	0.2143	0.4286	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	3.000	11.000	8.000	0.3226	0.4884	0.5484	0.3226	0.0323	0.3226	0.3548	0.2581
season	0.20	41	-	151.000	34.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	22.000	17.000	27.000	40.000	0.2252	0.3462	0.3510	0.2252	0.0199	0.1457	0.1788	0.2649

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.1830
predicted_AVG	0.2529
predicted_BB	0.9980
predicted_H	0.8050
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.4232
predicted_R	0.3010
predicted_RBI	0.7080
predicted_SLG	0.3912
predicted_SO	0.8440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.2000	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0360	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6830	3.1830	3.3879	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2529	0.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6590	0.9980	0.8591	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8050	0.7948	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0560	0.0535	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4230	0.4232	0.4231	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4150	0.3010	0.3477	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.7080	0.7006	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3910	0.3912	0.3911	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9760	0.8440	0.8981	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Seiya Suzuki (673548) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 27

All-history rows before 20260514: 27

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2772

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1660

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.741	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.741	4.000	0.259	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.000	-0.277	0.000
predicted_BB	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.630	0.000	0.370	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.037	0.000	-1.037	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.388	0.000	-0.188	0.200
predicted_R	0.704	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.704	0.000	-0.704	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.593	0.000	-0.593	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_SO	1.074	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.074	2.000	1.926	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.741	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.630	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.704	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	1.074	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.655	-0.086
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.641	0.011
predicted_H	0.659	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.189	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000
predicted_R	0.585	-0.119
predicted_RBI	0.511	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.384	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.126	0.052

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	0.1176	0.2857	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	11.000	0.1944	0.3182	0.4167	0.1944	0.0556	0.1944	0.1944	0.3056
season	0.20	27	-	101.000	28.000	3.000	7.000	16.000	19.000	17.000	29.000	0.2772	0.3884	0.5149	0.2772	0.0693	0.1584	0.1683	0.2871

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5900
predicted_AVG	0.1898
predicted_BB	0.6500
predicted_H	0.6810
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1950
predicted_OBP	0.3152
predicted_R	0.4940
predicted_RBI	0.5280
predicted_SLG	0.3838
predicted_SO	1.1660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1070	0.1087	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7410	3.5900	3.6555	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1898	0.1899	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6300	0.6500	0.6413	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6810	0.6589	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1950	0.1885	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3152	0.3151	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7040	0.4940	0.5851	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5280	0.5115	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3838	0.3839	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0740	1.1660	1.1261	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	673548
playerID	673548
playerName	Seiya Suzuki
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2252

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	0.854	1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.683	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.683	2.000	0.317	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.275	0.500
predicted_BB	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.780	2.000	0.220	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	0.000	1.171	2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.500	0.232	0.100
predicted_R	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.780	0.000	0.220	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.233	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.457	0.000	0.293	0.750
predicted_SO	1.415	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.415	2.000	-1.415	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.683	-
predicted_AVG	0.144	-
predicted_BB	0.780	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	-
predicted_R	0.780	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.233	-
predicted_SO	1.415	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-0.060
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.468	-0.215
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.000
predicted_BB	0.843	0.063
predicted_H	0.479	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.079	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.000
predicted_R	0.739	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.301	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.233	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.548	0.133

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.130 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	0.0667	0.3000	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0667	0.3333	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	10.000	18.000	0.1515	0.3488	0.2424	0.1515	0.0303	0.0909	0.3030	0.5454
season	0.20	41	-	151.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	18.000	32.000	32.000	58.000	0.2252	0.3676	0.4570	0.2252	0.0596	0.1192	0.2119	0.3841

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0450
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3190
predicted_AVG	0.1442
predicted_BB	0.8870
predicted_H	0.4790
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.3271
predicted_R	0.7110
predicted_RBI	0.3020
predicted_SLG	0.2325
predicted_SO	1.6400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.0450	0.0863	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0050	0.0128	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6830	3.3190	3.4679	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1440	0.1442	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7800	0.8870	0.8432	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.4790	0.4794	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0790	0.0794	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3270	0.3271	0.3271	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7800	0.7110	0.7392	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3020	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2330	0.2325	0.2327	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4150	1.6400	1.5480	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 42

All-history rows before 20260514: 42

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2387

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.119	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.119	0.000	0.881	1.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.690	3.000	0.310	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.261	0.500
predicted_BB	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.310	1.000	-0.310	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.881	0.000	1.119	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.250	0.190	0.250
predicted_R	0.571	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.405	0.000	2.595	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.374	0.000	0.376	0.750
predicted_SO	1.024	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.024	1.000	-1.024	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.310	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.326	-
predicted_SO	1.024	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.039
predicted_3B	0.043	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.539	-0.151
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.329	0.019
predicted_H	0.628	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.399	-0.172
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.884	-0.140

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.0625	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.4412	0.2353	0.0294	0.1177	0.0882	0.1765
season	0.20	42	-	155.000	37.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	17.000	24.000	13.000	43.000	0.2387	0.3099	0.3742	0.2387	0.0258	0.1097	0.0839	0.2774

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0390
predicted_AB	3.4320
predicted_AVG	0.1949
predicted_BB	0.3420
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.2774
predicted_R	0.2780
predicted_RBI	0.3300
predicted_SLG	0.3257
predicted_SO	0.7860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1190	0.1850	0.1577	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0390	0.0427	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.4320	3.5386	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1949	0.1949	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3100	0.3420	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6690	0.6281	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0620	0.0570	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2774	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.2780	0.3990	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3300	0.3093	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3260	0.3257	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0240	0.7860	0.8843	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Dansby Swanson (621020) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1884

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2320

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.049	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.049	0.000	0.951	1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.366	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.366	2.000	-0.366	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.333	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.145	0.333
predicted_BB	0.561	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.561	1.000	0.439	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.634	0.000	0.366	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.226	0.500	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.333	0.197	0.167
predicted_R	0.634	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.634	0.000	0.366	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.561	0.000	-0.561	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.667	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.348	0.000	0.319	0.667
predicted_SO	0.829	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.829	1.000	0.171	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.049	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.366	-
predicted_AVG	0.155	-
predicted_BB	0.561	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.226	-
predicted_R	0.634	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.239	-
predicted_SO	0.829	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	0.056
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.329	-0.037
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.000
predicted_BB	0.409	-0.152
predicted_H	0.478	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.036	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.226	-0.000
predicted_R	0.397	-0.237
predicted_RBI	0.175	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.000
predicted_SO	0.740	-0.089

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.142 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.1333	0.1875	0.2000	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.1176	0.1892	0.1471	0.1177	0.0000	0.0294	0.0882	0.1765
season	0.20	41	-	138.000	26.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	23.000	26.000	23.000	34.000	0.1884	0.3030	0.3478	0.1884	0.0435	0.1667	0.1667	0.2464

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.3030
predicted_AVG	0.1550
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_H	0.5120
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.2257
predicted_R	0.2290
predicted_RBI	0.1850
predicted_SLG	0.2392
predicted_SO	0.6760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0490	0.1450	0.1052	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0135	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3660	3.3030	3.3291	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1550	0.1550	0.1550	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5610	0.3010	0.4089	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5120	0.4780	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0410	0.0364	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2260	0.2257	0.2258	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6340	0.2290	0.3971	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1850	0.1746	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2390	0.2392	0.2391	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8290	0.6760	0.7395	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	621020
playerID	621020
playerName	Dansby Swanson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Matt Shaw (807713) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 21

All-history rows before 20260514: 21

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	3.000	1.857	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.000	-0.319	0.000
predicted_R	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.485	0.000	-0.485	0.000
predicted_SO	0.619	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.619	0.000	-0.619	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.238	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.381	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	0.619	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.010
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.235	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.213	-0.025
predicted_H	0.816	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.000
predicted_R	0.419	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.303	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000
predicted_SO	0.599	-0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3939	0.5667	0.3333	0.0333	0.1000	0.1000	0.1667
season	0.20	21	-	66.000	18.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	8.000	5.000	13.000	0.2727	0.3194	0.4848	0.2727	0.0454	0.1364	0.0758	0.1970

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2570
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3180
predicted_AVG	0.2720
predicted_BB	0.1900
predicted_H	0.9030
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.3116
predicted_R	0.4530
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.4833
predicted_SO	0.5810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.2570	0.2480	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.3180	3.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2720	0.2720	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2380	0.1900	0.2128	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.9030	0.8162	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1460	0.1337	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3116	0.3118	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3810	0.4530	0.4189	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3330	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4833	0.4832	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6190	0.5810	0.5990	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	807713
playerID	807713
playerName	Matt Shaw
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ben Brown (676962) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 13

All-history rows before 20260514: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.692	1.000	1.308	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	1.385	0.000	2.615	4.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.192	4.000	1.908	0.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	2.077	3.000	2.923	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.200	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	0.8438	0.5625	0.0938	0.2812	0.2812	0.6562	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	21.000	2.000	12.000	5.000	19.000	0.000	0.8571	0.8095	0.0952	0.5714	0.2381	0.9048	0.0000
season	0.20	13	29.200	6.000	18.000	9.000	27.000	1.000	1.8202	0.9101	0.2023	0.6067	0.3034	0.9101	0.0337

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.9970
predicted_ER	0.8580
predicted_ERA	2.4846
predicted_H	2.0920
predicted_HR	0.1950
predicted_IP	3.0000
predicted_SO	2.7010
predicted_WHIP	0.9943

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.9970	1.5426	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.8580	0.9352	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4846	2.4846	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	2.0920	3.1299	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1950	0.0889	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	3.0000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	2.7010	3.9516	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9943	0.9943	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	5
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	87

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	13
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.82
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	46
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	31
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	676962
playerID	676962
playerName	Ben Brown
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jacob Webb (657097) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.833	1.000	0.267	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.056	1.000	-0.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	1.3500	0.6000	0.1500	0.3000	0.3000	1.0500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	10.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	2.5312	1.2188	0.2812	0.9375	0.2812	1.1250	0.0938
season	0.20	18	17.100	7.000	18.000	8.000	19.000	3.000	3.6346	1.5000	0.4038	1.0385	0.4615	1.0961	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4510
predicted_ER	0.4730
predicted_ERA	3.3824
predicted_H	1.0440
predicted_HR	0.1300
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2710
predicted_WHIP	1.1878

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4510	0.1803	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4730	0.1891	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3824	3.3824	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0440	1.0176	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1300	0.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2710	1.1083	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1878	1.1878	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	657097
playerID	657097
playerName	Jacob Webb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 12

All-history rows before 20260514: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.417	0.000	1.583	2.000
predicted_ER	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_ER	0.833	2.000	6.167	5.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	1.083	3.000	5.917	4.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.733	1.000	0.367	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.167	1.000	-1.167	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	3.8571	1.0714	0.4286	0.8571	0.2143	1.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	10.000	13.000	4.000	12.000	2.000	10.0000	1.8889	1.1111	1.4444	0.4444	1.3333	0.2222
season	0.20	12	10.200	10.000	13.000	5.000	14.000	2.000	8.4375	1.6875	0.9375	1.2188	0.4688	1.3125	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4570
predicted_ER	0.6850
predicted_ERA	4.9980
predicted_H	1.2310
predicted_HR	0.1890
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2750
predicted_WHIP	1.3674

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4570	1.4550	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	7.0000	0.6850	4.7693	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9980	4.9980	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	1.2310	4.9622	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1890	0.0668	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2750	0.4504	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3674	1.3674	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	7
R	7
ER	7
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	12
Pitches	44

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	8.44
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Daniel Palencia (694037) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	2.000	-0.250	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.787	0.200	0.213	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.5000	1.2500	0.5000	0.7500	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	8	7.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	2.5714	1.1429	0.2857	0.8571	0.2857	1.0000	0.1429
season	0.20	8	7.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	2.5714	1.1429	0.2857	0.8571	0.2857	1.0000	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3720
predicted_ER	0.4350
predicted_ERA	4.1179
predicted_H	0.8610
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9190
predicted_WHIP	1.2969

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3720	0.1188	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4350	0.1389	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1179	4.1179	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8610	0.9556	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1400	0.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9190	0.9741	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2969	1.2969	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.57
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	694037
playerID	694037
playerName	Daniel Palencia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ryan Rolison (669020) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.125	2.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.188	1.200	-0.188	-0.200
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	2.000	1.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	6.000	5.000	9.000	1.000	7.7143	2.3571	0.8571	1.2857	1.0714	1.9286	0.2143
last_10	0.35	8	10.200	4.000	9.000	5.000	12.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.8438	0.4688	1.1250	0.0938
season	0.20	8	10.200	4.000	9.000	5.000	12.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.8438	0.4688	1.1250	0.0938

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5460
predicted_ER	0.5530
predicted_ERA	4.8225
predicted_H	1.0320
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2070
predicted_WHIP	1.5293

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5460	0.1929	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5530	0.8421	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8225	4.8225	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0320	1.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1470	0.0519	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.2070	2.3666	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5293	1.5293	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	669020
playerID	669020
playerName	Ryan Rolison
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Hoby Milner (571948) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.650	1.000	0.350	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.765	0.200	-0.565	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	2.4545	1.3636	0.2727	0.8182	0.5454	0.5454	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	3.0000	1.2222	0.3333	0.5556	0.6667	0.5556	0.1111
season	0.20	19	18.100	5.000	13.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	2.4545	1.0364	0.2727	0.7091	0.3273	0.3273	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3340
predicted_ER	0.2920
predicted_ERA	3.5348
predicted_H	0.6250
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5710
predicted_WHIP	1.2896

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3340	0.1354	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2920	0.7129	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5348	3.5348	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6250	0.8479	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0740	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5710	0.2315	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2896	1.2896	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	571948
playerID	571948
playerName	Hoby Milner
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Home Team: ATL

Drake Baldwin (686948) · BATTER · C · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 43

All-history rows before 20260514: 43

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2948

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.140	0.000	0.860	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.023	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.023	4.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.250	-0.045	0.000
predicted_BB	0.465	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.465	0.000	0.535	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.186	1.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_HR	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.256	1.000	-0.256	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.378	0.250	0.022	0.150
predicted_R	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.860	1.000	0.140	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.767	1.000	-0.767	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.576	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.520	1.000	-0.020	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.953	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.953	1.000	1.047	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.023	-
predicted_AVG	0.256	-
predicted_BB	0.465	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.330	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.860	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.576	-
predicted_SO	0.953	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.885	-0.138
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.556	0.091
predicted_H	0.954	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.336	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.363	-0.000
predicted_R	0.790	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.658	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.576	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.033	0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.083

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.023

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.6111	0.2222	0.1111	0.1667	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	7.000	6.000	11.000	0.2821	0.3778	0.6410	0.2821	0.1026	0.2051	0.1538	0.2821
season	0.20	43	-	173.000	51.000	6.000	11.000	33.000	37.000	20.000	41.000	0.2948	0.3776	0.5202	0.2948	0.0636	0.1908	0.1156	0.2370

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7910
predicted_AVG	0.2559
predicted_BB	0.6190
predicted_H	0.9700
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.3400
predicted_OBP	0.3626
predicted_R	0.7420
predicted_RBI	0.6700
predicted_SLG	0.5756
predicted_SO	1.0870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1400	0.1880	0.1685	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0230	3.7910	3.8852	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2560	0.2559	0.2559	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4650	0.6190	0.5565	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9700	0.9538	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3300	0.3400	0.3359	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3626	0.3628	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8600	0.7420	0.7899	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6700	0.6578	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5760	0.5756	0.5758	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9530	1.0870	1.0326	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	686948
playerID	686948
playerName	Drake Baldwin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Austin Riley (663586) · BATTER · 3B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 42

All-history rows before 20260514: 42

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2188

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.810	3.000	0.190	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.281	0.500
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	1.167	2.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.000	0.212	0.500
predicted_R	0.524	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.524	0.000	0.476	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.595	0.000	1.405	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.000	0.375	0.750
predicted_SO	1.119	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.119	0.000	-0.119	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.524	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.481	-
predicted_SO	1.119	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.805	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	-0.058
predicted_H	0.969	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.197	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.552	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.569	0.059
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.000
predicted_SO	1.056	-0.063

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.5263	0.2632	0.0790	0.1842	0.0526	0.3421
season	0.20	42	-	160.000	35.000	7.000	6.000	25.000	22.000	14.000	47.000	0.2188	0.2881	0.3750	0.2188	0.0375	0.1562	0.0875	0.2938

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8010
predicted_AVG	0.2731
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	1.0380
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.2090
predicted_OBP	0.3180
predicted_R	0.5720
predicted_RBI	0.6100
predicted_SLG	0.4813
predicted_SO	1.0120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1610	0.1635	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.8010	3.8047	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2731	0.2731	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2350	0.2753	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.0380	0.9689	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2090	0.1971	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3180	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5240	0.5720	0.5523	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.6100	0.5689	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4810	0.4813	0.4812	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1190	1.0120	1.0560	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663586
playerID	663586
playerName	Austin Riley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mike Yastrzemski (573262) · BATTER · RF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 29

All-history rows before 20260514: 29

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2157

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.517	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.517	2.000	-0.517	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.216	1.000	0.118	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.241	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.241	0.000	0.759	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.759	2.000	0.241	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	1.000	-0.034	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	1.000	0.227	-0.500
predicted_R	0.414	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.414	1.000	0.586	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	3.000	0.690	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.284	2.500	0.049	-2.167
predicted_SO	0.897	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.897	0.000	0.103	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.517	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.241	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.285	-
predicted_R	0.414	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.406	-
predicted_SO	0.897	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.454	-0.063
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000
predicted_BB	0.157	-0.084
predicted_H	0.828	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000
predicted_R	0.403	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.439	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.406	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.801	-0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.3125	0.3125	0.5000	0.3125	0.0625	0.1875	0.0000	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	0.2424	0.2424	0.3636	0.2424	0.0303	0.1212	0.0000	0.2121
season	0.20	29	-	102.000	22.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	12.000	7.000	26.000	0.2157	0.2727	0.2843	0.2157	0.0098	0.0882	0.0686	0.2549

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4050
predicted_AVG	0.2633
predicted_BB	0.0910
predicted_H	0.8970
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_OBP	0.2854
predicted_R	0.3940
predicted_RBI	0.4770
predicted_SLG	0.4059
predicted_SO	0.7250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.0840	0.1078	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5170	3.4050	3.4543	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2633	0.2632	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2410	0.0910	0.1571	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8970	0.8278	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1320	0.1223	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2850	0.2854	0.2852	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4140	0.3940	0.4028	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4770	0.4387	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4060	0.4059	0.4059	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8970	0.7250	0.8008	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	573262
playerID	573262
playerName	Mike Yastrzemski
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ozzie Albies (645277) · BATTER · 2B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 43

All-history rows before 20260514: 43

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2952

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.860	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.860	3.000	0.140	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.000	0.205	0.500
predicted_BB	0.326	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.326	0.000	0.674	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.140	0.000	0.860	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.000	0.252	0.600
predicted_R	0.698	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.698	0.000	0.302	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.581	0.000	0.419	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.488	0.000	0.012	0.500
predicted_SO	0.558	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.558	1.000	-0.558	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.860	-
predicted_AVG	0.187	-
predicted_BB	0.326	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.242	-
predicted_R	0.698	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.273	-
predicted_SO	0.558	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-0.057
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.876	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	-0.018
predicted_H	0.696	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.242	-0.000
predicted_R	0.553	-0.145
predicted_RBI	0.451	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.681	0.123

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.860

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1000	0.1429	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	0.2105	0.2791	0.3158	0.2105	0.0263	0.1316	0.1053	0.2105
season	0.20	43	-	166.000	49.000	8.000	8.000	25.000	30.000	14.000	24.000	0.2952	0.3478	0.4880	0.2952	0.0482	0.1506	0.0843	0.1446

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8870
predicted_AVG	0.1870
predicted_BB	0.2950
predicted_H	0.7270
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.2419
predicted_R	0.4520
predicted_RBI	0.4730
predicted_SLG	0.2729
predicted_SO	0.7670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.0890	0.1287	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8600	3.8870	3.8760	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1870	0.1870	0.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3260	0.2950	0.3077	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7270	0.6955	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0800	0.0759	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2420	0.2419	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6980	0.4520	0.5527	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4730	0.4513	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2730	0.2729	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5580	0.7670	0.6815	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	645277
playerID	645277
playerName	Ozzie Albies
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ha-Seong Kim (673490) · BATTER · SS · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 2

All-history rows before 20260514: 2

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.333	0.083	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.333	-0.036	-0.083
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.167	0.333	0.083	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	0.043
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.199	0.199
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.450	-0.050
predicted_H	0.645	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.000
predicted_R	0.119	0.119
predicted_RBI	0.286	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000
predicted_SO	0.586	0.086

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667
season	0.20	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1390
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.6460
predicted_AVG	0.2293
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_H	0.8360
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.3016
predicted_R	0.3870
predicted_RBI	0.3670
predicted_SLG	0.3513
predicted_SO	0.7810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1390	0.0427	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0034	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.6460	3.1986	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2293	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3360	0.4496	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.8360	0.6449	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0950	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3016	0.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3870	0.1190	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3670	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3513	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7810	0.5864	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	673490
playerID	673490
playerName	Ha-Seong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mauricio Dubón (643289) · BATTER · LF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	0.756	1.000
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	3.707	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.707	4.000	1.293	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.250	0.137	0.150
predicted_BB	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	1.000	1.024	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	1.000	-0.073	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.250	0.079	0.150
predicted_R	0.463	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.463	1.000	0.537	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.610	2.000	0.390	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.414	1.000	0.186	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.683	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.683	1.000	-0.683	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.049	-
predicted_AB	3.707	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.268	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.463	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.683	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.022
predicted_AB	3.841	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.297	0.029
predicted_H	0.844	0.114
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.125	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.000
predicted_R	0.407	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.691	0.091
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000
predicted_SO	0.746	0.063

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.2381	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	0.2105	0.3023	0.3421	0.2105	0.0263	0.1842	0.1316	0.2105
season	0.20	41	-	152.000	40.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	25.000	19.000	11.000	28.000	0.2632	0.3212	0.4145	0.2632	0.0197	0.1645	0.0724	0.1842

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2050
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.9360
predicted_AVG	0.2351
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_H	0.9250
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.2947
predicted_R	0.3670
predicted_RBI	0.7560
predicted_SLG	0.3953
predicted_SO	0.7900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.2050	0.2212	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0490	0.0110	0.0268	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7070	3.9360	3.8410	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2351	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2680	0.3180	0.2973	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.9250	0.8441	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1350	0.1246	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2947	0.2948	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4630	0.3670	0.4068	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.7560	0.6913	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3953	0.3952	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6830	0.7900	0.7456	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	643289
playerID	643289
playerName	Mauricio Dubón
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dominic Smith (642086) · BATTER · DH · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

System season_avg: 0.3860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.364	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.386	1.000	0.114	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.350	4.000	0.650	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.413	1.000	0.087	-0.500
predicted_R	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.650	2.000	0.350	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.850	0.000	1.150	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.487	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.600	1.000	-0.100	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.400	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.364	-
predicted_BB	0.150	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.411	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.487	-
predicted_SO	0.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	0.020
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.615	0.115
predicted_AVG	0.364	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.172	0.022
predicted_H	1.215	0.155
predicted_HBP	0.106	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.411	-0.000
predicted_R	0.588	-0.062
predicted_RBI	0.364	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.487	0.000
predicted_SO	0.455	0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.336 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.4444	0.5000	0.5000	0.4444	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.3846	0.4146	0.5128	0.3846	0.0256	0.1538	0.0256	0.0769
season	0.20	20	-	70.000	27.000	3.000	4.000	17.000	13.000	3.000	8.000	0.3857	0.4133	0.6000	0.3857	0.0571	0.2429	0.0429	0.1143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7170
predicted_AVG	0.3638
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_H	1.3520
predicted_HBP	0.1060
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_OBP	0.4106
predicted_R	0.5320
predicted_RBI	0.4040
predicted_SLG	0.4873
predicted_SO	0.5040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1870	0.1696	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7170	3.6149	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3640	0.3638	0.3639	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1500	0.1920	0.1722	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.3520	1.2146	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1060	0.1060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0880	0.0795	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4110	0.4106	0.4108	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.5320	0.5875	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.4040	0.3645	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4870	0.4873	0.4872	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4000	0.5040	0.4550	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.386

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	642086
playerID	642086
playerName	Dominic Smith
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Matt Olson (621566) · BATTER · 1B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 43

All-history rows before 20260514: 43

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2952

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.349	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.349	0.000	-0.349	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.860	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.860	3.000	0.140	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.333	-0.045	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.512	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.512	0.000	0.488	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.140	1.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.333	0.026	0.067
predicted_R	0.837	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.837	0.000	0.163	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.860	0.000	0.140	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.518	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.639	0.333	-0.389	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.023	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.023	0.000	0.977	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.349	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.860	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.512	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.837	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.518	-
predicted_SO	1.023	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-0.120
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.877	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.269	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.358	-0.154
predicted_H	1.002	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.260	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.641	-0.196
predicted_RBI	0.734	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.518	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	-0.023

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.860

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.4000	0.2500	0.0500	0.2000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	0.2895	0.3571	0.6579	0.2895	0.1053	0.2105	0.1053	0.2632
season	0.20	43	-	166.000	49.000	15.000	14.000	37.000	36.000	22.000	44.000	0.2952	0.3737	0.6386	0.2952	0.0843	0.2229	0.1325	0.2651

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8880
predicted_AVG	0.2689
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_H	1.0450
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2730
predicted_OBP	0.3113
predicted_R	0.5070
predicted_RBI	0.7650
predicted_SLG	0.5184
predicted_SO	0.9840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3490	0.1470	0.2293	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8600	3.8880	3.8766	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2689	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5120	0.2520	0.3580	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0450	1.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2730	0.2595	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3113	0.3112	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8370	0.5070	0.6415	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.7650	0.7344	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5180	0.5184	0.5182	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0230	0.9840	0.9999	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	621566
playerID	621566
playerName	Matt Olson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Michael Harris II (671739) · BATTER · CF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 34

All-history rows before 20260514: 34

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2100

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.824	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.824	3.000	1.176	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.322	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.333	-0.100	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.147	1.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.333	-0.124	-0.133
predicted_R	0.441	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.441	1.000	0.559	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.559	0.000	-0.559	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.469	0.333	-0.269	-0.133
predicted_SO	0.765	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	1.000	-0.765	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.824	-
predicted_AVG	0.322	-
predicted_BB	0.147	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.021
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.871	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.322	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.107	-0.040
predicted_H	1.185	0.095
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.473	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.268	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000
predicted_SO	0.845	0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.824

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4500	0.4000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	9.000	0.2821	0.2821	0.3077	0.2821	0.0000	0.0256	0.0000	0.2308
season	0.20	34	-	130.000	39.000	4.000	6.000	19.000	15.000	5.000	26.000	0.3000	0.3235	0.4692	0.3000	0.0461	0.1462	0.0385	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9060
predicted_AVG	0.3216
predicted_BB	0.0770
predicted_H	1.2560
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.3365
predicted_R	0.4970
predicted_RBI	0.2820
predicted_SLG	0.4023
predicted_SO	0.9050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1540	0.1387	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8240	3.9060	3.8710	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3220	0.3216	0.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1470	0.0770	0.1068	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.2560	1.1852	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0520	0.0511	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3365	0.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.4970	0.4731	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2820	0.2684	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4023	0.4022	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.9050	0.8453	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	671739
playerID	671739
playerName	Michael Harris II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Chris Sale (519242) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	0.000	2.500	4.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.500	2.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	3.875	5.000	-1.875	-3.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	3.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.125	7.000	-3.025	-3.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	7.000	7.000	-4.000	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	33.000	5.000	22.000	7.000	40.000	3.000	1.3636	0.8788	0.1515	0.6667	0.2121	1.2121	0.0909
last_10	0.35	8	49.000	12.000	31.000	12.000	56.000	6.000	2.2041	0.8776	0.2449	0.6327	0.2449	1.1429	0.1225
season	0.20	8	49.000	12.000	31.000	12.000	56.000	6.000	2.2041	0.8776	0.2449	0.6327	0.2449	1.1429	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4880
predicted_ER	1.5250
predicted_ERA	2.6122
predicted_H	4.0180
predicted_HR	0.5860
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.7830
predicted_WHIP	1.0480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.4880	2.7754	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.5250	1.2559	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6122	2.6122	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.0180	2.9838	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5860	0.2857	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	5.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.7830	4.3567	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0480	1.0480	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	4
SO	3
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	81

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.20
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	102
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	76
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	519242
playerID	519242
playerName	Chris Sale
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Aaron Bummer (607481) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.882	0.000	0.118	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	1.000	0.600	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	4.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	8.3077	2.0769	0.9231	1.6154	0.4615	0.9231	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.2500	0.7500	0.3750
season	0.20	17	13.000	7.000	15.000	5.000	11.000	4.000	4.8462	1.5385	0.5385	1.1539	0.3846	0.8461	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5200
predicted_ER	0.7490
predicted_ERA	4.8975
predicted_H	1.5070
predicted_HR	0.3050
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2670
predicted_WHIP	1.4719

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5200	0.1931	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7490	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8975	4.8975	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.5070	1.1883	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3050	0.1133	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2670	1.0992	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4719	1.4719	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.85
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	607481
playerID	607481
playerName	Aaron Bummer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Raisel Iglesias (628452) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 12

All-history rows before 20260514: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.167	1.000	1.833	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.000	0.083	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.250	0.000	-0.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.8000	0.4000	0.4000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	5.000	2.000	14.000	0.6562	0.4688	0.1875	1.3125
season	0.20	12	12.200	6.000	2.000	15.000	0.6316	0.4737	0.1579	1.1842

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4220
predicted_ER	0.3780
predicted_ERA	2.7825
predicted_H	0.9430
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2470
predicted_WHIP	1.1174

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4220	1.4179	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3780	0.1394	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7825	2.7825	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9430	0.3479	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1050	0.0387	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2470	1.0911	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1174	1.1174	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	2
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	628452
playerID	628452
playerName	Raisel Iglesias
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Robert Suarez (663158) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.722	1.000	-0.722	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.961	1.000	0.139	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.0000	1.1250	0.0000	0.7500	0.3750	0.9375
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	0.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.0000	0.8710	0.0000	0.5806	0.2903	0.9677
season	0.20	18	18.000	1.000	13.000	4.000	18.000	0.5000	0.9444	0.0556	0.7222	0.2222	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4220
predicted_ER	0.3290
predicted_ERA	2.4804
predicted_H	0.9950
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1450
predicted_WHIP	1.1862

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4220	0.1703	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3290	0.1328	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4804	2.4804	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9950	0.4016	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0900	0.0363	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1450	1.0585	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1862	1.1862	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663158
playerID	663158
playerName	Robert Suarez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dylan Lee (669276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 21

All-history rows before 20260514: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.095	0.000	0.905	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.929	1.000	0.071	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.190	2.000	-1.190	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	2.000	0.000	16.000	0.8438	0.1875	0.0938	0.1875	0.0000	1.5000
season	0.20	21	20.200	2.000	7.000	2.000	25.000	0.8710	0.4355	0.0968	0.3387	0.0968	1.2097

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_ER	0.2790
predicted_ERA	2.5086
predicted_H	0.6160
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1560
predicted_WHIP	0.8340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2180	0.6732	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2790	0.1166	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5086	2.5086	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6160	0.2575	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1560	0.4832	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8340	0.8340	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.87
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	669276
playerID	669276
playerName	Dylan Lee
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Tyler Kinley (641755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.450	0.000	1.550	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	1.650	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.750	1.000	1.250	1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.830	0.200	-0.730	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.950	0.000	0.050	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	11.2500	2.0000	1.2500	1.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	6.000	11.000	6.000	12.000	3.000	6.0000	1.8889	0.6667	1.2222	0.6667	1.3333	0.3333
season	0.20	20	18.000	7.000	15.000	9.000	19.000	3.000	3.5000	1.3333	0.3889	0.8333	0.5000	1.0556	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2490
predicted_ER	0.3490
predicted_ERA	5.7166
predicted_H	0.5910
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5900
predicted_WHIP	1.5313

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.2490	1.2932	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3490	1.3336	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.7166	5.7166	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.5910	1.4313	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1530	0.0618	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5900	0.8345	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5313	1.5313	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	641755
playerID	641755
playerName	Tyler Kinley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

20260514_COL@PIT

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "COL 4 - 3 PIT", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "COL 4 - 3 PIT", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "COL 4 - 3 PIT", "winner": "COL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "COL 4 - 3 PIT", "winner": "COL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	COL 4 - 3 PIT	COL	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	COL 4 - 3 PIT	COL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away COL	3-7	0.300	4.30	6.50	-22	1W	average	weak
Home PIT	6-4	0.600	5.10	4.40	7	1L	hot	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-13	COL @ PIT	10 - 4	COL	6	blowout
2026-05-12	COL @ PIT	1 - 3	PIT	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target COL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target PIT	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized COL	35	8	3	0	1	1	9
Player finalized PIT	35	9	5	0	6	3	8
Player model fractional COL	33.01	7.50	4.19	0.91	3.45	2.70	9.80
Player model fractional PIT	33.92	8.32	4.97	1.09	4.70	4.41	8.42
Simulation box COL	33	6	4	2	4	1	12
Simulation box PIT	33	7	3	2	3	1	10

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away COL	Starter	Chase Dollander	4.10	2	5	7	0	3.41	1.21	True
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Antonio Senzatela	1.20	0	1	0	0	3.01	1.05	True
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Jaden Hill	1.20	0	1	0	0	4.42	1.41	True
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Brennan Bernardino	1	1	2	1	0	5.86	1.36	-
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Victor Vodnik	1	1	1	0	0	5.10	1.53	True
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Juan Mejia	0.10	0	2	0	1	3.93	1.37	True
Home PIT	Starter	Mason Montgomery	4.10	2	5	3	0	2.80	1.14	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Dennis Santana	1.20	0	2	1	0	5.89	1.66	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Evan Sisk	1.10	0	1	0	0	2.77	1.07	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Gregory Soto	1	0	2	0	1	3.15	1.01	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Yohan Ramírez	1	1	2	1	0	5.69	1.47	-
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Isaac Mattson	0.20	2	2	2	0	8.23	1.66	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: COL

Jordan Beck (687597) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

System season_avg: 0.1590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1594

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1590

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.450	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.450	3.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.159	0.333	0.174	0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.550	1.000	0.450	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.203	0.333	0.297	0.167
predicted_R	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.275	0.333	0.058	0.000
predicted_SO	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.950	0.000	0.050	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.450	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.363	-
predicted_SO	0.950	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	0.020
predicted_3B	0.078	0.028
predicted_AB	3.501	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.212	0.012
predicted_H	0.730	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.000
predicted_R	0.345	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.405	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.000
predicted_SO	0.989	0.039

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.4118	0.2353	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.2000	0.2368	0.3143	0.2000	0.0000	0.1143	0.0571	0.2857
season	0.20	20	-	69.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	6.000	4.000	19.000	0.1594	0.2027	0.2754	0.1594	0.0145	0.1304	0.0580	0.2754

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.1030
predicted_AB	3.5470
predicted_AVG	0.2182
predicted_BB	0.2230
predicted_H	0.7740
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.2648
predicted_R	0.3860
predicted_RBI	0.4270
predicted_SLG	0.3631
predicted_SO	1.0230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1870	0.1695	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.1030	0.0780	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4500	3.5470	3.5012	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2182	0.2181	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2230	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7740	0.7296	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2648	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.3860	0.3454	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4270	0.4048	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3630	0.3631	0.3631	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9500	1.0230	0.9886	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.159

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	687597
playerID	687597
playerName	Jordan Beck
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

Willi Castro (650489) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 30

All-history rows before 20260514: 30

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2455

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2450

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.000	-0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	0.000	-0.900	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.567	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.567	0.000	-0.567	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.433	0.000	-0.433	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.345	0.000	-0.345	0.000
predicted_SO	1.300	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.300	1.000	1.700	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.287	-
predicted_R	0.567	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	1.300	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.059
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.705	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.304	0.005
predicted_H	0.776	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.125	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.287	-0.000
predicted_R	0.598	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	1.215	-0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	12.000	0.2051	0.2439	0.2821	0.2051	0.0256	0.0769	0.0513	0.3077
season	0.20	30	-	110.000	27.000	5.000	2.000	13.000	17.000	9.000	39.000	0.2455	0.3083	0.3455	0.2455	0.0182	0.1182	0.0818	0.3545

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7340
predicted_AVG	0.2255
predicted_BB	0.3080
predicted_H	0.8420
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.2867
predicted_R	0.6220
predicted_RBI	0.3930
predicted_SLG	0.3531
predicted_SO	1.1500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0620	0.1076	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.7340	3.7049	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2255	0.2257	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.3080	0.3045	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8420	0.7760	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1360	0.1247	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2870	0.2867	0.2868	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5670	0.6220	0.5981	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3930	0.3613	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3531	0.3531	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3000	1.1500	1.2152	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	650489
playerID	650489
playerName	Willi Castro
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	COL
teamID	9

Hunter Goodman (696100) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 36

All-history rows before 20260514: 36

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2431

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.250	0.007	0.000
predicted_BB	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.972	1.000	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.250	-0.060	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.472	1.000	1.528	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.437	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.507	0.500	0.493	0.500
predicted_SO	1.639	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.639	2.000	0.361	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.437	-
predicted_SO	1.639	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.059	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.262	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.264	-0.042
predicted_H	1.018	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.162	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.471	-0.196
predicted_RBI	0.474	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.000
predicted_SO	1.461	-0.178

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.5238	0.3333	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.3095	0.1905	0.0238	0.0952	0.0476	0.3810
season	0.20	36	-	144.000	35.000	8.000	10.000	17.000	24.000	11.000	59.000	0.2431	0.3101	0.5069	0.2431	0.0694	0.1181	0.0764	0.4097

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1020
predicted_AVG	0.2619
predicted_BB	0.2330
predicted_H	1.0740
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_OBP	0.3052
predicted_R	0.3310
predicted_RBI	0.4990
predicted_SLG	0.4373
predicted_SO	1.3330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2000	0.2092	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.1020	4.0594	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2619	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.2330	0.2635	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0740	1.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1710	0.1622	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3052	0.3051	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.3310	0.4713	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4990	0.4744	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4370	0.4373	0.4372	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.6390	1.3330	1.4607	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	696100
playerID	696100
playerName	Hunter Goodman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	COL
teamID	9

TJ Rumfield (681198) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 39

All-history rows before 20260514: 39

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2752

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	4.000	0.179	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.750	-0.025	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.051	3.000	-0.051	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	1.000	0.872	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.750	-0.089	-0.500
predicted_R	0.410	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.410	2.000	0.590	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	1.000	1.462	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.491	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.436	1.750	0.564	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.718	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.718	1.000	0.282	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.821	-
predicted_AVG	0.292	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.410	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.491	-
predicted_SO	0.718	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.907	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000
predicted_BB	0.277	-0.056
predicted_H	1.089	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.190	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.553	0.143
predicted_RBI	0.463	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.000
predicted_SO	0.807	0.090

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.821

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	0.3171	0.3636	0.5610	0.3171	0.0732	0.1463	0.0488	0.1951
season	0.20	39	-	149.000	41.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	21.000	16.000	13.000	28.000	0.2752	0.3394	0.4362	0.2752	0.0336	0.1409	0.0872	0.1879

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.9680
predicted_AVG	0.2922
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	1.1600
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.2040
predicted_OBP	0.3505
predicted_R	0.6540
predicted_RBI	0.4930
predicted_SLG	0.4910
predicted_SO	0.8710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1640	0.1702	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0149	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8210	3.9680	3.9070	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2920	0.2922	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2370	0.2768	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.1600	1.0895	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.2040	0.1899	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3505	0.3503	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4100	0.6540	0.5527	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4930	0.4627	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4910	0.4910	0.4910	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7180	0.8710	0.8075	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	681198
playerID	681198
playerName	TJ Rumfield
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

Mickey Moniak (666160) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 31

All-history rows before 20260514: 31

System season_avg: 0.3250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.258	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.258	1.000	0.742	0.000
predicted_3B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.065	1.000	-0.065	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.871	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.871	5.000	0.129	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.325	0.600	0.175	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.258	3.000	0.742	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.387	1.000	-0.387	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.600	0.131	-0.100
predicted_R	0.677	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.677	1.000	0.323	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.806	5.000	-0.806	-5.000
predicted_SLG	0.631	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.725	1.800	0.025	-1.050
predicted_SO	1.161	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.161	1.000	-1.161	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	-
predicted_3B	0.065	-
predicted_AB	3.871	-
predicted_AVG	0.287	-
predicted_BB	0.258	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.677	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.631	-
predicted_SO	1.161	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.110	0.044
predicted_AB	3.869	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.000
predicted_BB	0.255	-0.003
predicted_H	1.033	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.253	0.023
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.559	-0.118
predicted_RBI	0.809	0.079
predicted_SLG	0.631	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.259	0.098

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.871

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.5789	0.2632	0.0526	0.2632	0.0526	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	3.000	14.000	0.3250	0.3864	0.8000	0.3250	0.1000	0.2500	0.0750	0.3500
season	0.20	31	-	120.000	39.000	8.000	2.000	12.000	25.000	21.000	8.000	36.000	0.3250	0.3692	0.7250	0.3250	0.1000	0.2083	0.0667	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2330
predicted_3B	0.1430
predicted_AB	3.8680
predicted_AVG	0.2872
predicted_BB	0.2530
predicted_H	1.1110
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.2700
predicted_OBP	0.3368
predicted_R	0.4710
predicted_RBI	0.8680
predicted_SLG	0.6309
predicted_SO	1.3320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2580	0.2330	0.2437	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0650	0.1430	0.1095	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8710	3.8680	3.8693	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2870	0.2872	0.2871	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2580	0.2530	0.2551	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.1110	1.0333	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2700	0.2528	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3368	0.3369	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6770	0.4710	0.5594	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.8680	0.8088	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6310	0.6309	0.6309	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1610	1.3320	1.2586	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.325

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	5
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	9
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	666160
playerID	666160
playerName	Mickey Moniak
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

Brenton Doyle (686668) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 26

All-history rows before 20260514: 26

System season_avg: 0.1510

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1512

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1510

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.308	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.308	3.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.113	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.151	0.000	-0.151	0.000
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_R	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_SO	1.308	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.308	0.000	1.692	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.308	-
predicted_AVG	0.113	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.340	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.210	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.174	-
predicted_SO	1.308	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.090	0.013
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.275	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.113	0.000
predicted_BB	0.382	-0.003
predicted_H	0.355	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.210	-0.000
predicted_R	0.461	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.159	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.174	0.000
predicted_SO	1.140	-0.168

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.107 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.0000	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	12.000	0.1212	0.2162	0.1818	0.1212	0.0000	0.0606	0.1212	0.3636
season	0.20	26	-	86.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	34.000	0.1512	0.2396	0.2093	0.1512	0.0116	0.0349	0.1163	0.3953

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1000
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2480
predicted_AVG	0.1134
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_H	0.3680
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2097
predicted_R	0.4600
predicted_RBI	0.1660
predicted_SLG	0.1743
predicted_SO	1.0030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.1000	0.0896	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3080	3.2480	3.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1130	0.1134	0.1132	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.3790	0.3817	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3400	0.3680	0.3554	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0300	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2100	0.2097	0.2098	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.4600	0.4609	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1660	0.1588	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1740	0.1743	0.1742	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3080	1.0030	1.1404	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.151

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	686668
playerID	686668
playerName	Brenton Doyle
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

Edouard Julien (666397) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 29

All-history rows before 20260514: 29

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2673

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.483	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.483	3.000	-0.483	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.000	0.066	0.333
predicted_BB	0.483	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.483	0.000	-0.483	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.931	0.000	0.069	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.333	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.000	-0.023	0.333
predicted_R	0.517	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.517	0.000	-0.517	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.414	0.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.376	0.000	-0.043	0.333
predicted_SO	1.103	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.103	1.000	-1.103	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.483	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.483	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.517	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.302	-
predicted_SO	1.103	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.537	0.054
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.462	-0.021
predicted_H	0.721	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.418	-0.099
predicted_RBI	0.194	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.302	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.043	-0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	13.000	0.2432	0.3488	0.3514	0.2432	0.0270	0.0541	0.1622	0.3513
season	0.20	29	-	101.000	27.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	14.000	32.000	0.2673	0.3565	0.3762	0.2673	0.0198	0.1188	0.1386	0.3168

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0790
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.5790
predicted_AVG	0.2234
predicted_BB	0.4450
predicted_H	0.7990
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.3105
predicted_R	0.3420
predicted_RBI	0.2130
predicted_SLG	0.3018
predicted_SO	0.9960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.0790	0.0895	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0080	0.0194	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4830	3.5790	3.5370	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2234	0.2232	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4830	0.4450	0.4616	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7990	0.7207	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0620	0.0568	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3105	0.3103	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5170	0.3420	0.4185	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2130	0.1942	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3020	0.3018	0.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1030	0.9960	1.0428	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	666397
playerID	666397
playerName	Edouard Julien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Ezequiel Tovar (678662) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 38

All-history rows before 20260514: 38

System season_avg: 0.1990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1986

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	3.000	-0.711	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.199	0.333	-0.199	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.211	1.000	-0.211	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	1.000	-0.737	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_R	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.289	2.000	-0.289	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.253	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.277	0.333	-0.277	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.105	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.105	1.000	-0.105	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.211	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.289	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.253	-
predicted_SO	1.105	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	-0.088
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.575	-0.136
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.253	0.042
predicted_H	0.707	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.000
predicted_R	0.315	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.341	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.253	0.000
predicted_SO	1.068	-0.037

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	0.2000	0.2857	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1333	0.3000
season	0.20	38	-	141.000	28.000	8.000	1.000	11.000	11.000	8.000	42.000	0.1986	0.2500	0.2766	0.1986	0.0071	0.0780	0.0567	0.2979

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0600
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4760
predicted_AVG	0.2153
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.7480
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0220
predicted_OBP	0.2745
predicted_R	0.3330
predicted_RBI	0.3630
predicted_SLG	0.2532
predicted_SO	1.0420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.0600	0.1234	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.4760	3.5746	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2153	0.2152	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2110	0.2840	0.2534	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7480	0.7069	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0220	0.0212	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2745	0.2747	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2890	0.3330	0.3145	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3630	0.3408	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2530	0.2532	0.2531	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1050	1.0420	1.0684	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.199

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	678662
playerID	678662
playerName	Ezequiel Tovar
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

Troy Johnston (687859) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 34

All-history rows before 20260514: 34

System season_avg: 0.3220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3223

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.559	4.000	0.441	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.322	0.250	-0.322	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.147	1.000	-1.147	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.397	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.388	0.250	-0.388	-0.250
predicted_R	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.382	1.000	-0.382	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.454	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.455	0.250	-0.455	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.818	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.794	0.000	0.206	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.303	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.328	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.397	-
predicted_R	0.394	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.454	-
predicted_SO	0.818	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.329	0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.581	-0.086
predicted_AVG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.296	-0.007
predicted_H	1.070	0.110
predicted_HBP	0.115	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.397	0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.073
predicted_RBI	0.244	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.454	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.816	-0.002

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.292 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3529	0.4211	0.4706	0.3529	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	0.3529	0.4359	0.4706	0.3529	0.0000	0.0294	0.1177	0.2353
season	0.20	33	-	121.000	39.000	10.000	2.000	16.000	13.000	10.000	27.000	0.3223	0.3788	0.4545	0.3223	0.0165	0.1322	0.0826	0.2231

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5170
predicted_AVG	0.3277
predicted_BB	0.2900
predicted_H	1.1530
predicted_HBP	0.1150
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.3970
predicted_R	0.5210
predicted_RBI	0.2620
predicted_SLG	0.4538
predicted_SO	0.8140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3030	0.3480	0.3287	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.5170	3.5812	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3280	0.3277	0.3278	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.2900	0.2956	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.1530	1.0703	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1150	0.1150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0300	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3970	0.3970	0.3970	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3940	0.5210	0.4666	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2620	0.2440	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4540	0.4538	0.4539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8180	0.8140	0.8157	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.322

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	687859
playerID	687859
playerName	Troy Johnston
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	COL
teamID	9

Chase Dollander (801403) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 9

All-history rows before 20260514: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.889	5.000	-1.889	-5.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.778	2.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	3.778	3.000	3.222	4.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.622	5.200	-0.522	-1.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.222	5.000	-0.222	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.100	9.000	20.000	13.000	33.000	2.000	2.7614	1.1250	0.3068	0.6818	0.4432	1.1250	0.0682
last_10	0.35	9	43.000	16.000	34.000	17.000	47.000	5.000	3.3488	1.1860	0.3721	0.7907	0.3953	1.0930	0.1163
season	0.20	9	43.000	16.000	34.000	17.000	47.000	5.000	3.3488	1.1860	0.3721	0.7907	0.3953	1.0930	0.1163

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0760
predicted_ER	1.9250
predicted_ERA	3.4136
predicted_H	4.0640
predicted_HR	0.5160
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.3670
predicted_WHIP	1.2095

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.0760	1.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.9250	1.9626	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4136	3.4136	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.0640	5.5346	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.5160	1.2593	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.3670	5.1832	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2095	1.2095	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	7
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	5
HR	2
BF	22
Pitches	81

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	5
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.35
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	48
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	801403
playerID	801403
playerName	Chase Dollander
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 12

All-history rows before 20260514: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.167	1.000	-1.167	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.025	3.000	-0.825	-1.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	11.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.5454	0.2727	0.6364	0.0909
last_10	0.35	10	22.200	4.000	12.000	6.000	18.000	1.000	1.5882	0.7941	0.1765	0.5294	0.2647	0.7941	0.0441
season	0.20	12	27.100	4.000	14.000	7.000	24.000	1.000	1.3171	0.7683	0.1463	0.5122	0.2561	0.8780	0.0366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6470
predicted_ER	0.6730
predicted_ERA	3.0068
predicted_H	1.4660
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.7000
predicted_WHIP	1.0489

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6470	0.2895	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6730	0.3011	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0068	3.0068	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4660	0.6559	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1910	0.0855	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	2.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.7000	1.3132	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0489	1.0489	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.32
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Jaden Hill (677955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	1.000	0.600	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	4.9091	1.0909	0.5454	0.8182	0.2727	1.0909	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	5.000	12.000	6.000	10.000	1.000	5.4000	2.1600	0.6000	1.4400	0.7200	1.2000	0.1200
season	0.20	18	15.000	6.000	15.000	9.000	16.000	1.000	3.6000	1.6000	0.4000	1.0000	0.6000	1.0667	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5470
predicted_ER	0.6350
predicted_ERA	4.4200
predicted_H	1.2790
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3190
predicted_WHIP	1.4118

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5470	0.2107	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6350	0.2446	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4200	4.4200	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2790	0.4927	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1310	0.0505	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3190	1.1229	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4118	1.4118	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.60
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	677955
playerID	677955
playerName	Jaden Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Brennan Bernardino (657514) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 19

All-history rows before 20260514: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.621	1.000	0.379	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.684	0.000	1.316	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	5.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	13.5000	1.8000	1.5000	1.5000	0.3000	0.6000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	9.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	5.0000	1.1111	0.5556	1.0000	0.1111	0.8889	0.1111
season	0.20	19	16.000	6.000	15.000	4.000	13.000	1.000	3.3750	1.1875	0.3750	0.9375	0.2500	0.8125	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_ER	0.6130
predicted_ERA	5.8597
predicted_H	0.9840
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8240
predicted_WHIP	1.3648

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3010	0.1179	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6130	0.8484	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.8597	5.8597	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9840	0.9937	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1420	0.0556	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8240	1.5394	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3648	1.3648	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	657514
playerID	657514
playerName	Brennan Bernardino
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 15

All-history rows before 20260514: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.467	3.000	-1.467	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.027	0.200	-0.027	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.933	0.000	0.067	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	3.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	0.000	4.7647	1.5882	0.5294	0.8823	0.7059	1.0588	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	10.000	14.000	8.000	10.000	1.000	8.7097	2.1290	0.9677	1.3548	0.7742	0.9677	0.0968
season	0.20	15	16.100	12.000	22.000	10.000	14.000	2.000	6.6122	1.9592	0.7347	1.3469	0.6122	0.8571	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5100
predicted_ER	0.5670
predicted_ERA	5.1000
predicted_H	1.0180
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9690
predicted_WHIP	1.5288

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5100	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5670	0.8295	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1000	5.1000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0180	0.4008	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1010	0.0398	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9690	0.9878	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5288	1.5288	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Juan Mejia (675848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 16

All-history rows before 20260514: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.375	1.000	-1.375	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.062	1.000	-0.963	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.562	1.000	0.438	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	3.0000	1.3333	0.3333	0.6667	0.6667	2.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	5.000	13.000	5.000	21.000	1.000	3.7500	1.5000	0.4167	1.0833	0.4167	1.7500	0.0833
season	0.20	16	19.100	10.000	22.000	9.000	25.000	2.000	4.6552	1.6034	0.5172	1.1379	0.4655	1.2931	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_ER	0.3350
predicted_ERA	3.9266
predicted_H	0.7100
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.0060
predicted_WHIP	1.3742

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3450	0.7308	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3350	0.1377	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9266	3.9266	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7100	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0970	0.0399	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0060	1.5915	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3742	1.3742	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.66
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	675848
playerID	675848
playerName	Juan Mejia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Home Team: PIT

Endy Rodríguez (682848) · BATTER · C · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 0

All-history rows before 20260514: 0

System season_avg: 0.2439

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2439

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.005	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.484	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.309	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.793	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.412	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.861	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.005	-
predicted_AB	3.484	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.309	-
predicted_H	0.793	-
predicted_HR	0.115	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	-
predicted_SO	0.861	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.007
predicted_3B	0.007	0.002
predicted_AB	3.555	0.071
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.004
predicted_BB	0.303	-0.006
predicted_H	0.823	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.003
predicted_R	0.431	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.377	0.005
predicted_SO	0.860	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7970
predicted_AVG	0.2439
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3053
predicted_R	0.4940
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.3943
predicted_SO	0.8560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1790	0.1543	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0050	0.0140	0.0070	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4840	3.7970	3.5552	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2439	0.2316	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3090	0.2840	0.3033	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7930	0.9260	0.8233	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1150	0.1210	0.1164	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.3053	0.2943	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.4940	0.4307	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4710	0.4471	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3720	0.3943	0.3771	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8610	0.8560	0.8599	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Ryan O'Hearn (656811) · BATTER · RF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 39

All-history rows before 20260514: 39

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2886

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	1.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	4.000	-0.821	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.500	0.045	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.462	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.103	2.000	-0.103	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	1.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.500	0.135	0.000
predicted_R	0.615	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.615	2.000	0.385	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.692	1.000	-0.692	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.450	1.500	-0.116	-1.167
predicted_SO	0.846	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	0.000	-0.846	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.821	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.615	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.042	0.221
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.364	-0.098
predicted_H	0.999	0.119
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.677	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.070
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	0.063

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.821

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2609	0.2917	0.4348	0.2609	0.0435	0.1304	0.0435	0.2174
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	3.000	10.000	0.2439	0.2955	0.3659	0.2439	0.0244	0.1707	0.0732	0.2439
season	0.20	39	-	149.000	43.000	6.000	6.000	27.000	24.000	18.000	33.000	0.2886	0.3647	0.4497	0.2886	0.0403	0.1812	0.1208	0.2215

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1980
predicted_AVG	0.2580
predicted_BB	0.2950
predicted_H	1.0830
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_OBP	0.3073
predicted_R	0.7200
predicted_RBI	0.6300
predicted_SLG	0.4108
predicted_SO	0.9540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1890	0.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8210	4.1980	4.0422	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2580	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.2950	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.0830	0.9991	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1490	0.1370	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3073	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6150	0.7200	0.6766	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.6300	0.5804	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4108	0.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	0.9540	0.9094	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	656811
playerID	656811
playerName	Ryan O'Hearn
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Konnor Griffin (804606) · BATTER · SS · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 35

All-history rows before 20260514: 35

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	1.000	-0.171	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.771	4.000	0.229	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.943	1.000	0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.250	-0.065	0.000
predicted_R	0.486	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.486	1.000	-0.486	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.500	-0.144	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.143	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	1.000	0.857	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.771	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.314	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.435	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.046
predicted_3B	0.048	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.828	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.344	0.030
predicted_H	0.861	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.572	0.086
predicted_RBI	0.494	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.435	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.077	-0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2609	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	11.000	0.2895	0.3488	0.5263	0.2895	0.0263	0.1316	0.1053	0.2895
season	0.20	35	-	132.000	33.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	18.000	17.000	11.000	40.000	0.2500	0.3151	0.3939	0.2500	0.0227	0.1364	0.0833	0.3030

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2510
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.8690
predicted_AVG	0.2418
predicted_BB	0.3650
predicted_H	0.9350
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.3030
predicted_R	0.6350
predicted_RBI	0.5340
predicted_SLG	0.4347
predicted_SO	1.0290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.2510	0.2172	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0420	0.0483	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7710	3.8690	3.8276	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2418	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3140	0.3650	0.3435	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9350	0.8611	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1370	0.1256	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3030	0.3030	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.6350	0.5721	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5340	0.4943	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4350	0.4347	0.4348	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.0290	1.0771	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	804606
playerID	804606
playerName	Konnor Griffin
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PIT
teamID	22

Jared Triolo (669707) · BATTER · 3B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 10

All-history rows before 20260514: 10

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1944

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	2.000	-0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.500	-0.194	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.256	0.500	-0.006	-0.250
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.581	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.184	-0.016
predicted_H	0.745	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.037	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.000
predicted_R	0.256	0.056
predicted_RBI	0.257	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.813	0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3125	0.2500	0.0625	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1944	0.2564	0.2500	0.1944	0.0278	0.0556	0.2222
season	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1944	0.2564	0.2500	0.1944	0.0278	0.0556	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1920
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5590
predicted_AVG	0.2336
predicted_BB	0.1650
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HBP	0.0370
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.2756
predicted_R	0.3210
predicted_RBI	0.2870
predicted_SLG	0.3326
predicted_SO	0.8270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1920	0.1963	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0028	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.5590	3.5809	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2336	0.2338	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1650	0.1837	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8310	0.7451	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0370	0.0370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0442	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2756	0.2758	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3210	0.2564	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2870	0.2566	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3326	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8270	0.8126	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	669707
playerID	669707
playerName	Jared Triolo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Marcell Ozuna (542303) · BATTER · DH · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 34

All-history rows before 20260514: 34

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1912

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.250	0.059
predicted_BB	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.382	0.000	-0.382
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.765	1.000	0.235
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.250	-0.022
predicted_R	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.353	0.000	-0.353
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.412	0.000	-0.412
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.309	0.250	-0.059
predicted_SO	1.118	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.118	1.000	-0.118

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.382	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.353	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.413	-
predicted_SO	1.118	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.038
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.903	-0.097
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000
predicted_BB	0.519	0.137
predicted_H	0.823	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.164	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.351	-0.000
predicted_R	0.419	0.066
predicted_RBI	0.373	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000
predicted_SO	1.091	-0.027

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	0.2105	0.3750	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.2105	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	0.2632	0.3913	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.1842	0.2632
season	0.20	34	-	136.000	26.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	12.000	13.000	38.000	0.1912	0.2715	0.3088	0.1912	0.0294	0.1029	0.0956	0.2794

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8330
predicted_AVG	0.2282
predicted_BB	0.6180
predicted_H	0.8750
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.1740
predicted_OBP	0.3509
predicted_R	0.4670
predicted_RBI	0.3970
predicted_SLG	0.4133
predicted_SO	1.0710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1830	0.1557	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8330	3.9031	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2282	0.2281	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3820	0.6180	0.5189	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8750	0.8225	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1740	0.1639	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3509	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3530	0.4670	0.4191	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3970	0.3731	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4130	0.4133	0.4132	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1180	1.0710	1.0907	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	542303
playerID	542303
playerName	Marcell Ozuna
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PIT
teamID	22

Oneil Cruz (665833) · BATTER · CF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.275	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.275	3.000	-0.275	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.125	0.000	-1.125	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.386	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.250	-0.330	-0.250
predicted_R	0.825	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.825	0.000	-0.825	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.725	0.000	-0.725	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.485	0.000	-0.485	0.000
predicted_SO	1.575	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.575	2.000	1.425	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.275	-
predicted_AVG	0.313	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.386	-
predicted_R	0.825	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	-
predicted_SO	1.575	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	0.044
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.205	-0.070
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.000
predicted_BB	0.423	0.048
predicted_H	1.260	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.160	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.386	-0.000
predicted_R	1.003	0.178
predicted_RBI	0.347	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	1.469	-0.106

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.295 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.275

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	8.000	0.3810	0.4583	0.6190	0.3810	0.0476	0.0476	0.1429	0.3810
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	4.000	13.000	0.2857	0.3617	0.4048	0.2857	0.0238	0.0714	0.0952	0.3095
season	0.20	40	-	171.000	45.000	8.000	10.000	29.000	33.000	15.000	63.000	0.2632	0.3298	0.4854	0.2632	0.0585	0.1696	0.0877	0.3684

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2740
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1570
predicted_AVG	0.3131
predicted_BB	0.4560
predicted_H	1.3010
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_OBP	0.3859
predicted_R	1.1260
predicted_RBI	0.3590
predicted_SLG	0.5004
predicted_SO	1.3960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2740	0.2438	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2750	4.1570	4.2052	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3130	0.3131	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.4560	0.4229	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.3010	1.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1670	0.1601	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3860	0.3859	0.3859	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8250	1.1260	1.0032	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3590	0.3472	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5000	0.5004	0.5002	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5750	1.3960	1.4691	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	665833
playerID	665833
playerName	Oneil Cruz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Bryan Reynolds (668804) · BATTER · LF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2534

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	3.561	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.561	4.000	0.439	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.250	-0.253	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.829	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.829	0.000	-0.829	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.902	1.000	-0.902	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.399	0.250	-0.399	-0.250
predicted_R	0.659	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.659	0.000	-0.659	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.610	1.000	-0.610	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.325	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.250	-0.397	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.073	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.073	0.000	0.927	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.049	-
predicted_AB	3.561	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.829	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.325	-
predicted_SO	1.073	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.044	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.515	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.794	-0.035
predicted_H	0.759	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000
predicted_R	0.529	-0.130
predicted_RBI	0.567	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.325	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.785	-0.288

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.1765	0.2353	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	9.000	7.000	0.2647	0.4186	0.4412	0.2647	0.0294	0.1765	0.2647	0.2059
season	0.20	41	-	146.000	37.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	25.000	27.000	34.000	44.000	0.2534	0.3989	0.3973	0.2534	0.0274	0.1712	0.2329	0.3014

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.4840
predicted_AVG	0.2257
predicted_BB	0.7700
predicted_H	0.7860
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.3663
predicted_R	0.4390
predicted_RBI	0.5860
predicted_SLG	0.3247
predicted_SO	0.5860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.0740	0.0937	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0490	0.0410	0.0443	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5610	3.4840	3.5155	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2257	0.2258	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8290	0.7700	0.7942	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7860	0.7590	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0618	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3663	0.3662	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.4390	0.5291	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5860	0.5672	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3250	0.3247	0.3248	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0730	0.5860	0.7854	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	668804
playerID	668804
playerName	Bryan Reynolds
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Spencer Horwitz (687462) · BATTER · 1B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 33

All-history rows before 20260514: 33

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2685

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2690

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.273	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.273	3.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.667	-0.019	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.697	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.697	1.000	-0.697	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.879	2.000	0.121	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.439	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.396	0.750	-0.146	-0.500
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.538	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.398	0.667	-0.148	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.485	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.485	0.000	-0.485	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.273	-
predicted_AVG	0.313	-
predicted_BB	0.697	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.439	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.538	-
predicted_SO	0.485	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.305	0.123
predicted_3B	0.075	0.045
predicted_AB	3.434	0.161
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.000
predicted_BB	0.771	0.074
predicted_H	1.005	0.145
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.439	0.000
predicted_R	0.358	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.747	0.107
predicted_SLG	0.538	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.515	0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.293 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	0.3889	0.5217	0.6667	0.3889	0.0000	0.2778	0.2778	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	3.000	10.000	3.000	0.2857	0.4444	0.5429	0.2857	0.0286	0.2857	0.2857	0.0857
season	0.20	33	-	108.000	29.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	17.000	11.000	23.000	16.000	0.2685	0.3955	0.3981	0.2685	0.0185	0.1574	0.2130	0.1482

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3970
predicted_3B	0.1090
predicted_AB	3.5540
predicted_AVG	0.3132
predicted_BB	0.8260
predicted_H	1.1130
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.4394
predicted_R	0.3760
predicted_RBI	0.8260
predicted_SLG	0.5376
predicted_SO	0.5370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.3970	0.3051	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.1090	0.0752	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2730	3.5540	3.4339	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3130	0.3132	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6970	0.8260	0.7709	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	1.1130	1.0049	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0610	0.0563	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4390	0.4394	0.4392	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3760	0.3576	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.8260	0.7465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5380	0.5376	0.5378	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4850	0.5370	0.5148	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	687462
playerID	687462
playerName	Spencer Horwitz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Brandon Lowe (664040) · BATTER · 2B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 36

All-history rows before 20260514: 36

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2590

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.861	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.861	3.000	0.139	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.000	0.491	0.750
predicted_BB	0.639	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.639	1.000	-0.639	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000
predicted_HR	0.210	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.278	0.000	1.722	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.391	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.250	0.384	0.500
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.830	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.778	0.000	1.222	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.575	2.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.554	0.000	1.946	2.500
predicted_SO	0.972	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.972	0.000	-0.972	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.861	-
predicted_AVG	0.284	-
predicted_BB	0.639	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.391	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.830	-
predicted_SLG	0.575	-
predicted_SO	0.972	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.076	0.049
predicted_AB	3.858	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.284	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.706	0.067
predicted_H	1.047	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.223	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.391	-0.000
predicted_R	0.722	0.055
predicted_RBI	0.884	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.575	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.901	-0.071

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.861

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.3000	0.4000	0.6000	0.3000	0.0500	0.3000	0.2000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	9.000	10.000	6.000	0.2973	0.4375	0.6486	0.2973	0.0811	0.2432	0.2703	0.1622
season	0.20	36	-	139.000	36.000	9.000	1.000	10.000	28.000	24.000	23.000	35.000	0.2590	0.3659	0.5540	0.2590	0.0719	0.2014	0.1655	0.2518

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2050
predicted_3B	0.1110
predicted_AB	3.8560
predicted_AVG	0.2836
predicted_BB	0.7540
predicted_H	1.0940
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.2320
predicted_OBP	0.3907
predicted_R	0.7610
predicted_RBI	0.9230
predicted_SLG	0.5748
predicted_SO	0.8500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2050	0.2237	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.1110	0.0765	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8610	3.8560	3.8581	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2840	0.2836	0.2838	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6390	0.7540	0.7062	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0940	1.0467	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2320	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3910	0.3907	0.3908	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.7610	0.7220	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8300	0.9230	0.8844	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5750	0.5748	0.5749	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9720	0.8500	0.9007	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	664040
playerID	664040
playerName	Brandon Lowe
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mason Montgomery (682254) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 16

All-history rows before 20260514: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.312	0.000	1.688	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	2.250	3.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.819	1.200	3.281	2.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	1.438	1.000	3.562	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.1875	0.5625	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	0.000	5.000	3.000	11.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7742	0.0000	0.4839	0.2903	1.0645	0.0000
season	0.20	16	15.200	5.000	12.000	8.000	23.000	1.000	2.8723	1.2766	0.3191	0.7660	0.5106	1.4681	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2510
predicted_ER	0.9500
predicted_ERA	2.7987
predicted_H	2.2450
predicted_HR	0.2570
predicted_IP	3.0000
predicted_SO	2.8810
predicted_WHIP	1.1447

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.2510	0.4873	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.9500	1.5910	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7987	2.7987	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	2.2450	2.7059	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2570	0.7106	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	3.0000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	2.8810	4.1746	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1447	1.1447	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	5
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	70

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	682254
playerID	682254
playerName	Mason Montgomery
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Dennis Santana (642701) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.778	2.000	0.222	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.911	0.200	0.289	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.556	0.000	1.444	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	6.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	12.4615	2.7692	1.3846	2.0769	0.6923	0.0000	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	6.000	12.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	5.7857	1.8214	0.6429	1.2857	0.5357	0.4286	0.2143
season	0.20	18	17.100	7.000	14.000	9.000	10.000	2.000	3.6346	1.3269	0.4038	0.8077	0.5192	0.5769	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6570
predicted_ER	0.9120
predicted_ERA	5.8854
predicted_H	1.6550
predicted_HR	0.2800
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	0.9420
predicted_WHIP	1.6576

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6570	0.2626	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.9120	0.3646	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.8854	5.8854	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.6550	1.2618	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2800	0.1119	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9420	1.5771	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6576	1.6576	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	642701
playerID	642701
playerName	Dennis Santana
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Evan Sisk (681895) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 13

All-history rows before 20260514: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.077	1.100	0.023	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.538	2.000	-0.538	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.100	1.000	6.000	3.000	14.000	0.7297	0.7297	0.0811	0.4865	0.2432	1.1351
season	0.20	13	16.100	3.000	13.000	4.000	20.000	1.6531	1.0408	0.1837	0.7959	0.2449	1.2245

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3780
predicted_ER	0.4100
predicted_ERA	2.7675
predicted_H	1.0500
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3470
predicted_WHIP	1.0712

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3780	0.1488	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4100	0.1614	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7675	2.7675	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0500	0.4134	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1040	0.0409	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3470	1.1366	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0712	1.0712	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	681895
playerID	681895
playerName	Evan Sisk
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Gregory Soto (642397) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 21

All-history rows before 20260514: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.190	1.000	-0.190	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.381	2.000	-0.381	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.971	1.000	0.029	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.238	0.000	0.762	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	1.5882	0.5294	0.1765	0.3529	0.1765	0.8823	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	6.000	2.000	11.000	0.000	2.5312	0.7500	0.2812	0.5625	0.1875	1.0312	0.0000
season	0.20	21	21.100	4.000	8.000	7.000	26.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7031	0.1875	0.3750	0.3281	1.2188	0.0469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_ER	0.3500
predicted_ERA	3.1531
predicted_H	0.7060
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9780
predicted_WHIP	1.0084

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3020	0.7060	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3500	0.1474	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1531	3.1531	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7060	0.2974	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0740	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9780	1.5695	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0084	1.0084	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	642397
playerID	642397
playerName	Gregory Soto
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Yohan Ramírez (670990) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.824	3.000	-0.824	-3.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.647	1.000	0.353	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.059	1.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.288	2.000	-0.288	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.529	2.000	0.471	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	7.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	0.000	9.9474	1.8947	1.1053	1.1053	0.7895	1.1053	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	14.100	9.000	13.000	8.000	15.000	1.000	5.6512	1.4651	0.6279	0.9070	0.5581	1.0465	0.0698
season	0.20	17	24.000	11.000	18.000	14.000	26.000	1.000	4.1250	1.3333	0.4583	0.7500	0.5833	1.0833	0.0417

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6050
predicted_ER	0.7360
predicted_ERA	5.6936
predicted_H	1.1060
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1830
predicted_WHIP	1.4720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6050	0.2624	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7360	0.8855	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6936	5.6936	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1060	1.0460	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0412	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1830	1.6457	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4720	1.4720	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	12
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.13
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	2
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	34
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	670990
playerID	670990
playerName	Yohan Ramírez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Isaac Mattson (676755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 19

All-history rows before 20260514: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	2.000	1.526	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.947	3.000	1.053	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.789	0.100	-0.589	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.684	0.000	1.316	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	2.200	7.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	23.6250	3.0000	2.6250	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	7.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	7.2692	1.3846	0.8077	0.9231	0.4615	0.5769
season	0.20	19	17.100	9.000	18.000	9.000	13.000	4.6731	1.5577	0.5192	1.0385	0.5192	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3490
predicted_ER	0.6780
predicted_ERA	8.2299
predicted_H	0.8790
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6290
predicted_WHIP	1.6565

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3490	0.1395	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6780	1.4715	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.2299	8.2299	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8790	1.5519	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0560	0.6226	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6290	1.4519	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6565	1.6565	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.67
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	676755
playerID	676755
playerName	Isaac Mattson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

20260514_DET@NYM

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.538832, "home_win_probability": 0.538832, "away_win_probability": 0.461168, "predicted_score_text": "DET 2 - 3 NYM", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "DET 2 - 3 NYM", "confidence": 0.538832, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "DET 2 - 3 NYM", "winner": "NYM"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "DET 2 - 3 NYM", "winner": "NYM"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	DET 2 - 3 NYM	NYM	0.539	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	DET 2 - 3 NYM	NYM	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away DET	3-7	0.300	3.30	4.60	-13	2L	cold	average
Home NYM	6-4	0.600	4.20	3	12	2W	average	strong

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-13	DET @ NYM	2 - 3	NYM	1	close
2026-05-12	DET @ NYM	2 - 10	NYM	8	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target DET	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Game target NYM	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized DET	34	9	2	0	0	3	10
Player finalized NYM	34	9	2	0	3	3	9
Player model fractional DET	32.34	7.46	3.33	0.52	2.81	3.14	8.17
Player model fractional NYM	31.75	6.84	4.60	0.68	3.43	4.22	8.13
Simulation box DET	33	6	2	1	2	2	5
Simulation box NYM	32	7	3	1	3	4	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away DET	Starter	Keider Montero	5.20	1	4	2	2	3.82	1.15	True
Away DET	Middle Reliever	Kenley Jansen	1.10	0	1	2	1	3.83	1.28	True
Away DET	Middle Reliever	Kyle Finnegan	1	0	1	0	0	2.46	1.30	True
Away DET	Middle Reliever	Brant Hurter	0.20	0	2	0	0	2.83	1.07	-
Away DET	Middle Reliever	Burch Smith	0.20	2	1	3	1	4.45	1.47	True
Home NYM	Starter	Nolan McLean	4.20	2	4	6	2	3.34	1.08	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Austin Warren	1.10	0	3	0	0	2.99	1.31	-
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Brooks Raley	1.10	0	1	0	0	2.58	1.20	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Devin Williams	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.76	1.14	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Huascar Brazobán	1	0	0	0	0	3.90	1.15	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Luke Weaver	0.20	0	0	0	0	3.06	1.28	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: DET

Dillon Dingler (693307) · BATTER · DH · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 33

All-history rows before 20260514: 33

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2441

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	1.000	-0.242	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.848	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.848	5.000	0.152	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.400	0.256	0.100
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.939	2.000	1.061	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.212	0.000	0.788	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.400	0.186	0.100
predicted_R	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.788	0.000	0.212	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.444	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.472	0.600	0.778	0.650
predicted_SO	0.818	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.818	1.000	0.182	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.848	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.444	-
predicted_SO	0.818	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	0.036
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.900	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.016
predicted_H	0.826	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.176	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000
predicted_R	0.481	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.444	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.932	0.114

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.848

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.4500	0.2000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	0.2250	0.2619	0.4500	0.2250	0.0500	0.1750	0.0500	0.2500
season	0.20	33	-	127.000	31.000	8.000	7.000	26.000	15.000	9.000	27.000	0.2441	0.3143	0.4724	0.2441	0.0551	0.2047	0.0709	0.2126

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3050
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9390
predicted_AVG	0.2222
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_H	0.8750
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_OBP	0.2822
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.4439
predicted_SO	1.0160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.3050	0.2783	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8480	3.9390	3.9004	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.3010	0.2891	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8750	0.8262	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1880	0.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2822	0.2821	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.5000	0.4809	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4910	0.4651	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4440	0.4439	0.4439	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8180	1.0160	0.9319	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	693307
playerID	693307
playerName	Dillon Dingler
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	DET
teamID	10

Colt Keith (690993) · BATTER · 3B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 29

All-history rows before 20260514: 29

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2941

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.517	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.517	4.000	0.483	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.250	-0.294	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.034	1.000	-1.034	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	-0.333	-0.250
predicted_R	0.448	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.448	0.000	-0.448	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.373	0.250	-0.373	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.862	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.862	1.000	-0.862	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.517	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.172	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.448	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.376	-
predicted_SO	0.862	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	-0.053
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.416	-0.101
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000
predicted_BB	0.195	0.023
predicted_H	0.977	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.117	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000
predicted_R	0.422	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.111	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.000
predicted_SO	0.858	-0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4118	0.4000	0.3333	0.0000	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.3030	0.3611	0.3333	0.3030	0.0000	0.0606	0.2727
season	0.20	29	-	102.000	30.000	8.000	4.000	13.000	5.000	25.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.3725	0.2941	0.0392	0.0490	0.2451

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3360
predicted_AVG	0.2994
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_H	0.9990
predicted_HBP	0.1170
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.3625
predicted_R	0.4010
predicted_RBI	0.1110
predicted_SLG	0.3762
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2760	0.1810	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5170	3.3360	3.4160	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2994	0.2992	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1720	0.2140	0.1954	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9990	0.9773	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1170	0.1170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0217	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3625	0.3623	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4480	0.4010	0.4218	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1110	0.1106	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3760	0.3762	0.3761	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8620	0.8540	0.8575	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	690993
playerID	690993
playerName	Colt Keith
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	DET
teamID	10

Riley Greene (682985) · BATTER · LF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 42

All-history rows before 20260514: 42

System season_avg: 0.3270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3268

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.643	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.643	5.000	-0.643	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.423	0.000	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.327	0.600	-0.327	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.595	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.595	0.000	0.405	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	1.390	0.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.190	3.000	-1.190	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.493	0.250	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.421	0.600	-0.171	-0.350
predicted_R	0.619	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.619	0.000	-0.619	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.524	2.000	-0.524	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.574	0.000	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.490	0.600	-0.490	-0.600
predicted_SO	1.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	0.000	-0.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.643	-
predicted_AVG	0.423	-
predicted_BB	0.595	-
predicted_H	1.390	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.493	-
predicted_R	0.619	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.574	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.398	0.088
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.702	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.423	0.000
predicted_BB	0.553	-0.042
predicted_H	1.504	0.114
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.493	0.000
predicted_R	0.521	-0.098
predicted_RBI	0.454	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.574	0.000
predicted_SO	1.053	-0.090

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.406 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.5263	0.5909	0.6842	0.5263	0.0000	0.1579	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	16.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	12.000	0.4324	0.5000	0.5676	0.4324	0.0000	0.0811	0.1351	0.3243
season	0.20	42	-	153.000	50.000	13.000	4.000	22.000	26.000	25.000	48.000	0.3268	0.4213	0.4902	0.3268	0.0261	0.1438	0.1634	0.3137

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7430
predicted_AVG	0.4233
predicted_BB	0.5240
predicted_H	1.5840
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.4935
predicted_R	0.4520
predicted_RBI	0.4780
predicted_SLG	0.5743
predicted_SO	0.9900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3100	0.4590	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6430	3.7430	3.7019	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4230	0.4233	0.4232	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5950	0.5240	0.5532	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3900	1.5840	1.5043	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0324	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4930	0.4935	0.4933	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6190	0.4520	0.5206	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4780	0.4542	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5740	0.5743	0.5742	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	0.9900	1.0529	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.327

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	682985
playerID	682985
playerName	Riley Greene
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	DET
teamID	10

Kevin McGonigle (805808) · BATTER · SS · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3026

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	3.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.333	-0.303	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.650	2.000	-0.650	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.150	1.000	-1.150	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.422	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.411	0.600	-0.411	-0.600
predicted_R	0.675	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.675	1.000	-0.675	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.447	0.333	-0.447	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.650	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.422	-
predicted_R	0.675	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	0.550	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-0.067
predicted_3B	0.026	-0.024
predicted_AB	3.646	-0.154
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.770	0.120
predicted_H	0.954	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.126	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.422	0.000
predicted_R	0.565	-0.110
predicted_RBI	0.212	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.351	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.530	-0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	0.3125	0.5217	0.3750	0.3125	0.0000	0.0000	0.3750	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	0.2162	0.3556	0.2432	0.2162	0.0000	0.0811	0.1892	0.1351
season	0.20	40	-	152.000	46.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	27.000	26.000	22.000	0.3026	0.4111	0.4474	0.3026	0.0132	0.1053	0.1711	0.1447

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1860
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.5380
predicted_AVG	0.2721
predicted_BB	0.8540
predicted_H	0.9630
predicted_HBP	0.1260
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.4220
predicted_R	0.4880
predicted_RBI	0.2130
predicted_SLG	0.3506
predicted_SO	0.5160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.1860	0.2328	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0100	0.0264	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.5380	3.6455	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2721	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6500	0.8540	0.7703	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9630	0.9536	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1260	0.1260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0224	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4220	0.4220	0.4220	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6750	0.4880	0.5647	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2130	0.2118	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3506	0.3508	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5500	0.5160	0.5300	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	805808
playerID	805808
playerName	Kevin McGonigle
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	DET
teamID	10

Wenceel Pérez (672761) · BATTER · CF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 21

All-history rows before 20260514: 21

System season_avg: 0.1450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1447

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.619	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.619	4.000	0.381	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.145	0.000	-0.145	0.000
predicted_BB	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.238	1.000	-0.238	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.198	0.200	-0.198	-0.200
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.299	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_SO	0.524	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.524	1.000	-0.524	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.619	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.238	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.299	-
predicted_SO	0.524	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	0.045
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.772	0.153
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.248	0.010
predicted_H	0.778	0.118
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.000
predicted_R	0.399	0.113
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.066
predicted_SLG	0.299	0.000
predicted_SO	0.644	0.120

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.2857	0.2381	0.1429	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.2368	0.2927	0.2895	0.2368	0.1316	0.0790	0.1842
season	0.20	21	-	76.000	11.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	11.000	0.1447	0.1975	0.1711	0.1447	0.0658	0.0658	0.1447

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.9040
predicted_AVG	0.2257
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	0.8810
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.2756
predicted_R	0.4970
predicted_RBI	0.4830
predicted_SLG	0.2993
predicted_SO	0.7480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.1780	0.1395	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6190	3.9040	3.7717	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2257	0.2258	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2380	0.2560	0.2476	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8810	0.7784	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2756	0.2758	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.4970	0.3991	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4830	0.4259	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2990	0.2993	0.2992	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5240	0.7480	0.6440	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.145

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	672761
playerID	672761
playerName	Wenceel Pérez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	DET
teamID	10

Gage Workman (669398) · BATTER · 2B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 1

All-history rows before 20260514: 1

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.250	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.500	-0.250	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	1.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.407	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.798	-0.202
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.950	-0.050
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.070	0.070
predicted_H	0.852	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.122	0.122
predicted_RBI	0.384	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.407	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.965	-0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500
season	0.20	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2710
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.8210
predicted_AVG	0.2446
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_H	0.9350
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_OBP	0.2988
predicted_R	0.4390
predicted_RBI	0.4190
predicted_SLG	0.4067
predicted_SO	0.8720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	1.0000	0.2710	0.7979	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8210	3.9504	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2446	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2520	0.0699	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9350	0.8519	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1080	0.0950	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2988	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4390	0.1217	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4190	0.3836	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4070	0.4067	0.4069	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8720	0.9645	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	669398
playerID	669398
playerName	Gage Workman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	DET
teamID	10

Zach McKinstry (656716) · BATTER · RF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

System season_avg: 0.1720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1724

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.222	4.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.152	0.333	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.172	0.250	0.161	0.083
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	1.000	-0.056	-1.000
predicted_H	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.500	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.250	0.250
predicted_R	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.220	0.333	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.259	0.250	0.075	0.083
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	2.000	-0.833	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.152	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.111	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.220	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.266	0.044
predicted_AVG	0.152	0.000
predicted_BB	0.383	0.050
predicted_H	0.459	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.036	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.000
predicted_R	0.145	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.155	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.866	0.033

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.140 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	0.0667	0.2222	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	0.1290	0.2286	0.1613	0.1290	0.0000	0.0000	0.1290	0.2581
season	0.20	18	-	58.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	15.000	0.1724	0.2500	0.2586	0.1724	0.0172	0.0862	0.1035	0.2586

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3080
predicted_AVG	0.1525
predicted_BB	0.4300
predicted_H	0.5050
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2540
predicted_R	0.1780
predicted_RBI	0.1700
predicted_SLG	0.2199
predicted_SO	0.8960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0910	0.1007	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	3.3080	3.2663	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1520	0.1525	0.1523	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.4300	0.3830	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.5050	0.4589	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2540	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1110	0.1780	0.1455	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1700	0.1555	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2200	0.2199	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.8960	0.8655	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.172

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	656716
playerID	656716
playerName	Zach McKinstry
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Spencer Torkelson (679529) · BATTER · 1B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2044

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.425	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.425	3.000	0.575	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.046	0.250
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.250	-0.071	0.000
predicted_R	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.000	-0.144	0.250
predicted_SO	1.300	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.300	3.000	-1.300	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.425	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.250	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.307	-
predicted_SO	1.300	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	0.043
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.528	0.103
predicted_AVG	0.169	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.494	-0.106
predicted_H	0.555	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.250	-0.000
predicted_R	0.303	-0.047
predicted_RBI	0.373	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.000
predicted_SO	1.432	0.132

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.1667	0.2381	0.2778	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111	0.1111	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	19.000	0.1111	0.1951	0.2500	0.1111	0.0278	0.1111	0.1111	0.5278
season	0.20	40	-	137.000	28.000	8.000	6.000	16.000	14.000	24.000	52.000	0.2044	0.3210	0.3942	0.2044	0.0438	0.1168	0.1752	0.3796

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2730
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6010
predicted_AVG	0.1687
predicted_BB	0.4190
predicted_H	0.6080
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_OBP	0.2499
predicted_R	0.2700
predicted_RBI	0.4110
predicted_SLG	0.3074
predicted_SO	1.5260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2730	0.2426	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4250	3.6010	3.5278	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1687	0.1688	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.4190	0.4943	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6080	0.5548	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0740	0.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2500	0.2499	0.2499	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.2700	0.3033	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.4110	0.3731	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3070	0.3074	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3000	1.5260	1.4320	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	679529
playerID	679529
playerName	Spencer Torkelson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	DET
teamID	10

Jake Rogers (668670) · BATTER · C · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 14

All-history rows before 20260514: 14

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.571	0.000	0.429	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	-	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.200	-	0.133	-
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.278	-	0.056	-
predicted_SO	0.917	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	0.000	0.214	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.083	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.083	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.089	0.006
predicted_AB	3.160	0.160
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.000
predicted_BB	0.137	0.054
predicted_H	0.555	0.125
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.037	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000
predicted_R	0.369	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.894	-0.023

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.3333	0.2000	0.0000	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.1667	0.2059	0.2667	0.1667	0.1000	0.0333	0.3000
season	0.20	12	-	36.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	0.1667	0.2000	0.2778	0.1667	0.1111	0.0278	0.3056

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0950
predicted_AB	3.3420
predicted_AVG	0.2084
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_H	0.6960
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_OBP	0.2592
predicted_R	0.4100
predicted_RBI	0.2870
predicted_SLG	0.3398
predicted_SO	0.8690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1110	0.1407	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0830	0.0950	0.0886	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3420	3.1604	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2084	0.2082	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0830	0.1970	0.1365	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.6960	0.5547	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0460	0.0375	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2592	0.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4100	0.3691	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2870	0.2302	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3398	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	0.8690	0.8945	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	668670
playerID	668670
playerName	Jake Rogers
pos	C
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Keider Montero (672456) · PITCHER · Starter · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 7

All-history rows before 20260514: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.143	1.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	1.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	4.286	3.000	-2.286	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.500	6.000	-0.300	-0.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	4.143	4.000	-0.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.100	12.000	25.000	6.000	19.000	3.000	3.6818	1.0568	0.4091	0.8523	0.2046	0.6477	0.1023
last_10	0.35	7	39.200	14.000	30.000	8.000	29.000	3.000	3.1765	0.9580	0.3529	0.7563	0.2017	0.7311	0.0756
season	0.20	7	39.200	14.000	30.000	8.000	29.000	3.000	3.1765	0.9580	0.3529	0.7563	0.2017	0.7311	0.0756

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6130
predicted_ER	2.4680
predicted_ERA	3.8204
predicted_H	5.0890
predicted_HR	0.6370
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.5850
predicted_WHIP	1.1525

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.6130	1.8166	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.4680	1.6958	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8204	3.8204	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	5.0890	3.4640	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6370	0.8280	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.5850	4.2773	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1525	1.1525	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	4
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	90

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	71
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	44
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	672456
playerID	672456
playerName	Keider Montero
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kenley Jansen (445276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 13

All-history rows before 20260514: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.615	0.000	1.385	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.723	1.000	0.377	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.154	3.000	-0.154	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	1.000	3.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.6429	0.6429	1.7143	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	11.000	1.000	2.0000	1.1111	0.2222	0.6667	0.4444	1.2222	0.1111
season	0.20	12	10.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	15.000	2.000	2.6129	1.0645	0.2903	0.6774	0.3871	1.4516	0.1935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5210
predicted_ER	0.5260
predicted_ERA	3.8261
predicted_H	1.0600
predicted_HR	0.1750
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3750
predicted_WHIP	1.2789

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5210	0.8321	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5260	0.1843	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8261	3.8261	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0600	1.6706	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1750	0.0613	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3750	1.1314	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2789	1.2789	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.35
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	445276
playerID	445276
playerName	Kenley Jansen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kyle Finnegan (640448) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.940	1.100	0.060	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3333	0.0000	0.6667	0.6667	0.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	1.000	8.000	6.000	11.000	1.000	0.7714	1.2000	0.0857	0.6857	0.5143	0.9429	0.0857
season	0.20	19	20.200	1.000	12.000	14.000	14.000	1.000	0.4355	1.2581	0.0484	0.5806	0.6774	0.6774	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5450
predicted_ER	0.3060
predicted_ERA	2.4579
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9380
predicted_WHIP	1.2978

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5450	0.2278	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3060	0.1279	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4579	2.4579	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9090	0.3799	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0414	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9380	0.9741	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2978	1.2978	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.31
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	640448
playerID	640448
playerName	Kyle Finnegan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Brant Hurter (676428) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.983	1.100	-0.783	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	1.000	1.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	1.1250	0.8750	0.1250	0.5000	0.3750	0.8750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	15.100	2.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	0.000	1.1739	0.6522	0.1304	0.4565	0.1956	0.7174	0.0000
season	0.20	17	21.200	4.000	12.000	6.000	15.000	1.000	1.6615	0.8308	0.1846	0.5538	0.2769	0.6923	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3730
predicted_ER	0.3450
predicted_ERA	2.8258
predicted_H	0.8060
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9630
predicted_WHIP	1.0737

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3730	0.1577	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3450	0.1459	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8258	2.8258	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8060	0.3409	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0810	0.0343	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9630	1.5614	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0737	1.0737	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	676428
playerID	676428
playerName	Brant Hurter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Burch Smith (572143) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 9

All-history rows before 20260514: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	1.000	1.444	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.444	1.000	1.556	2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.256	0.100	-1.056	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.889	1.000	-0.889	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.2857	0.6429	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	9	12.000	5.000	13.000	6.000	17.000	1.000	3.7500	1.5833	0.4167	1.0833	0.5000	1.4167	0.0833
season	0.20	9	12.000	5.000	13.000	6.000	17.000	1.000	3.7500	1.5833	0.4167	1.0833	0.5000	1.4167	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3650
predicted_ER	0.4030
predicted_ERA	4.4477
predicted_H	0.8370
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8810
predicted_WHIP	1.4732

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3650	0.7690	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4030	1.4189	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4477	4.4477	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.8370	2.2130	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1140	0.0415	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8810	0.9567	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4732	1.4732	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	572143
playerID	572143
playerName	Burch Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Home Team: NYM

Hayden Senger (663584) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 0

All-history rows before 20260514: 0

System season_avg: 0.2439

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2439

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.005	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.484	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.309	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.793	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.861	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.005	-
predicted_AB	3.484	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.309	-
predicted_H	0.793	-
predicted_HR	0.115	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	-
predicted_SO	0.861	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.007
predicted_3B	0.007	0.002
predicted_AB	3.555	0.071
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.004
predicted_BB	0.303	-0.006
predicted_H	0.823	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.003
predicted_R	0.431	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.377	0.005
predicted_SO	0.860	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7970
predicted_AVG	0.2439
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3053
predicted_R	0.4940
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.3943
predicted_SO	0.8560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1790	0.1543	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0050	0.0140	0.0070	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4840	3.7970	3.5552	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2439	0.2316	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3090	0.2840	0.3033	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7930	0.9260	0.8233	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1150	0.1210	0.1164	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.3053	0.2943	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.4940	0.4307	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4710	0.4471	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3720	0.3943	0.3771	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8610	0.8560	0.8599	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Brett Baty (683146) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 32

All-history rows before 20260514: 32

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2301

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.531	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.531	4.000	0.469	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.270	0.250
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.812	1.000	1.188	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.285	0.250	0.215	0.250
predicted_R	0.469	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.469	0.000	-0.469	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.327	0.250	0.173	0.250
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	2.000	-0.125	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.531	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.230	0.042
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.636	0.105
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.039
predicted_H	0.881	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.325	-0.000
predicted_R	0.542	0.073
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	1.109	-0.016

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	11.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.2941	0.2353	0.0000	0.0294	0.1471	0.3235
season	0.20	32	-	113.000	26.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	15.000	8.000	36.000	0.2301	0.2846	0.3274	0.2301	0.0089	0.1062	0.0708	0.3186

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2620
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.7160
predicted_AVG	0.2596
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_H	0.9650
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.3247
predicted_R	0.5970
predicted_RBI	0.2520
predicted_SLG	0.3574
predicted_SO	1.0960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.2620	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0080	0.0180	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5310	3.7160	3.6359	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2596	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3180	0.2886	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9650	0.8806	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0251	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3247	0.3248	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.5970	0.5416	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2520	0.2295	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3574	0.3572	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.0960	1.1086	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	683146
playerID	683146
playerName	Brett Baty
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Carson Benge (701807) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 34

All-history rows before 20260514: 34

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.529	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.529	5.000	-0.529	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.600	-0.233	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.324	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	0.676	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	1.000	-0.029	-1.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.824	3.000	-0.824	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.600	-0.098	-0.400
predicted_R	0.471	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.382	1.000	0.618	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.350	0.600	-0.350	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.794	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.794	1.000	0.206	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.529	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.794	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.039
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.684	0.155
predicted_AVG	0.304	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	-0.016
predicted_H	1.076	0.106
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.000
predicted_R	0.498	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	0.787	-0.007

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.292 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.4000	0.3500	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	4.000	7.000	0.3243	0.3902	0.4865	0.3243	0.0270	0.1892	0.1081	0.1892
season	0.20	34	-	120.000	28.000	5.000	3.000	13.000	16.000	11.000	27.000	0.2333	0.2977	0.3500	0.2333	0.0250	0.1083	0.0917	0.2250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2160
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8000
predicted_AVG	0.3039
predicted_BB	0.2960
predicted_H	1.1550
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.3560
predicted_R	0.5190
predicted_RBI	0.5680
predicted_SLG	0.4154
predicted_SO	0.7820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.2160	0.1864	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5290	3.8000	3.6838	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3039	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.2960	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.1550	1.0757	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0670	0.0640	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3560	0.3560	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.5190	0.4984	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5680	0.5303	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4154	0.4152	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7940	0.7820	0.7871	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	701807
playerID	701807
playerName	Carson Benge
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

A.J. Ewing (805999) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 2

All-history rows before 20260514: 2

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.500	3.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	2.000	1.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	2.000	1.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.500	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.556	0.250	-0.056	0.250
predicted_R	1.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	1.500	1.000	-1.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.442	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SO	1.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	3.000	-0.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.500	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	2.000	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	1.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.442	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.041	0.041
predicted_3B	0.393	-0.107
predicted_AB	2.824	0.324
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.625	-0.375
predicted_H	0.583	0.113
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.000
predicted_R	1.284	-0.216
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.090
predicted_SLG	0.442	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.367	-0.133

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	2.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	2.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.2000	0.5556	0.6000	0.2000	0.4000	0.8000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	-	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.2000	0.5556	0.6000	0.2000	0.4000	0.8000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	-	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.2000	0.5556	0.6000	0.2000	0.4000	0.8000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1270
predicted_3B	0.1710
predicted_AB	3.4980
predicted_AVG	0.2338
predicted_BB	0.8470
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.3631
predicted_R	0.8350
predicted_RBI	0.6570
predicted_SLG	0.4418
predicted_SO	1.0910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1270	0.0413	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.5000	0.1710	0.3931	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.4980	2.8244	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2338	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.8470	1.6253	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.8180	0.5831	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0860	0.0617	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3631	0.3630	model_form_blend
predicted_R	1.5000	0.8350	1.2839	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.6570	0.4700	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4420	0.4418	0.4419	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.0910	1.3671	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	805999
playerID	805999
playerName	A.J. Ewing
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 31

All-history rows before 20260514: 31

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2342

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.581	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.581	3.000	0.419	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.333	0.016	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.839	1.000	0.161	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.161	0.000	0.839	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.500	-0.033	-0.250
predicted_R	0.419	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	1.000	0.581	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.548	0.000	0.452	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.472	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.414	0.333	0.586	0.667
predicted_SO	0.871	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.871	0.000	0.129	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.581	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.226	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.472	-
predicted_SO	0.871	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.757	0.176
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.169	-0.057
predicted_H	0.947	0.107
predicted_HBP	0.109	-
predicted_HR	0.190	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.492	0.073
predicted_RBI	0.596	0.066
predicted_SLG	0.472	0.000
predicted_SO	0.805	-0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.5250	0.2500	0.0750	0.2250	0.0250	0.2000
season	0.20	31	-	111.000	26.000	5.000	5.000	17.000	13.000	7.000	27.000	0.2342	0.2833	0.4144	0.2342	0.0450	0.1532	0.0631	0.2432

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8920
predicted_AVG	0.2643
predicted_BB	0.1250
predicted_H	1.0290
predicted_HBP	0.1090
predicted_HR	0.2050
predicted_OBP	0.3064
predicted_R	0.5480
predicted_RBI	0.6470
predicted_SLG	0.4722
predicted_SO	0.7550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1610	0.1890	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5810	3.8920	3.7569	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2643	0.2642	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2260	0.1250	0.1689	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.0290	0.9469	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1090	0.1090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.2050	0.1898	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3064	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.5480	0.4919	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.6470	0.5962	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4720	0.4722	0.4721	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8710	0.7550	0.8054	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 26

All-history rows before 20260514: 26

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2551

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.769	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.769	3.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.577	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.577	0.000	0.423	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.962	0.000	-0.962	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.000	-0.101	0.250
predicted_R	0.423	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_SO	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	1.000	0.308	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.769	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.577	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.248	-
predicted_R	0.423	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.264	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.052
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.743	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.000
predicted_BB	0.480	-0.097
predicted_H	0.600	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.000
predicted_R	0.366	-0.057
predicted_RBI	0.306	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.000
predicted_SO	0.765	0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	0.1316	0.2093	0.2632	0.1316	0.0263	0.0790	0.1053	0.2368
season	0.20	26	-	98.000	25.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	11.000	15.000	18.000	0.2551	0.3509	0.4388	0.2551	0.0408	0.1122	0.1531	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0610
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.7230
predicted_AVG	0.1672
predicted_BB	0.4040
predicted_H	0.6230
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_OBP	0.2484
predicted_R	0.3220
predicted_RBI	0.3180
predicted_SLG	0.2641
predicted_SO	0.8220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.0610	0.1017	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0360	0.0369	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7690	3.7230	3.7431	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1672	0.1671	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5770	0.4040	0.4798	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6230	0.5998	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0760	0.0734	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2480	0.2484	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4230	0.3220	0.3662	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3180	0.3057	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2640	0.2641	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.8220	0.7651	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYM
teamID	18

MJ Melendez (669004) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 16

All-history rows before 20260514: 16

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2889

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	2.812	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.812	2.000	1.188	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.333	-0.385	-0.333
predicted_R	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_SO	1.062	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.062	1.000	-1.062	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	2.812	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.312	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.400	-
predicted_SO	1.062	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-0.053
predicted_3B	0.083	0.021
predicted_AB	2.955	0.143
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.406	0.031
predicted_H	0.624	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.070	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.324	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.266	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	1.033	-0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.1429	0.2941	0.2857	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.2143	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	-	25.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.2800	0.4000	0.4800	0.2800	0.0400	0.1600	0.1600	0.3200
season	0.20	16	-	45.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	6.000	17.000	0.2889	0.3846	0.5333	0.2889	0.0444	0.1333	0.1333	0.3778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.1040
predicted_AB	3.1000
predicted_AVG	0.2288
predicted_BB	0.4370
predicted_H	0.7090
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.3332
predicted_R	0.3370
predicted_RBI	0.3030
predicted_SLG	0.4000
predicted_SO	1.0030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.0800	0.1345	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.1040	0.0828	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8120	3.1000	2.9547	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2288	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.4370	0.4057	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.7090	0.6237	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0810	0.0704	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3332	0.3331	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3120	0.3370	0.3244	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.3030	0.2662	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0620	1.0030	1.0328	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	669004
playerID	669004
playerName	MJ Melendez
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYM
teamID	18

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 42

All-history rows before 20260514: 42

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2185

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.595	4.000	-0.595	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.448	0.667
predicted_BB	0.262	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.262	0.000	0.738	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	0.000	1.214	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.274	0.000	0.476	0.750
predicted_R	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.298	0.000	0.369	0.667
predicted_SO	0.786	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	1.000	-0.786	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.595	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.262	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.310	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.267	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.677	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	-0.005
predicted_H	0.679	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.000
predicted_R	0.353	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.171	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.000
predicted_SO	0.859	0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.2162	0.2750	0.3243	0.2162	0.0270	0.0541	0.0811	0.2432
season	0.20	42	-	151.000	33.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	13.000	11.000	33.000	0.2185	0.2744	0.2980	0.2185	0.0132	0.0861	0.0728	0.2185

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7350
predicted_AVG	0.1987
predicted_BB	0.2540
predicted_H	0.7420
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.2510
predicted_R	0.3840
predicted_RBI	0.1860
predicted_SLG	0.2674
predicted_SO	0.9110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0820	0.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5950	3.7350	3.6769	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1987	0.1988	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2620	0.2540	0.2573	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7420	0.6789	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0541	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2510	0.2510	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3100	0.3840	0.3533	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1860	0.1710	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2670	0.2674	0.2672	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.9110	0.8591	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 42

All-history rows before 20260514: 42

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2235

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.048	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.048	4.000	0.952	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.168	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.250	-0.024	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	1.000	0.095	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.250	-0.072	-0.050
predicted_R	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	0.000	0.595	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	1.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.201	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.288	0.250	-0.088	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.738	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.738	0.000	0.262	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.048	-
predicted_AVG	0.168	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.201	-
predicted_SO	0.738	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.916	-0.132
predicted_AVG	0.168	0.000
predicted_BB	0.382	0.096
predicted_H	0.630	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.257	-0.000
predicted_R	0.312	-0.093
predicted_RBI	0.409	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.544	-0.194

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.156 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.048

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.1111	0.2381	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.1750	0.2500	0.1750	0.1750	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.0750
season	0.20	42	-	170.000	38.000	5.000	2.000	18.000	17.000	12.000	31.000	0.2235	0.2717	0.2882	0.2235	0.0118	0.1059	0.0706	0.1824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8250
predicted_AVG	0.1683
predicted_BB	0.4480
predicted_H	0.6440
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.2569
predicted_R	0.2470
predicted_RBI	0.4160
predicted_SLG	0.2005
predicted_SO	0.4090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1190	0.0450	0.0753	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0480	3.8250	3.9163	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1680	0.1683	0.1682	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.4480	0.3817	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6440	0.6301	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0230	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2569	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.2470	0.3117	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4160	0.4095	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2010	0.2005	0.2007	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7380	0.4090	0.5436	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYM
teamID	18

Nolan McLean (690997) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	1.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.750	1.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	3.625	3.000	2.375	3.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.550	6.000	-1.350	-1.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	7.125	6.000	-3.125	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.200	9.000	21.000	6.000	37.000	2.000	2.8256	0.9419	0.3140	0.7326	0.2093	1.2907	0.0698
last_10	0.35	8	45.100	14.000	29.000	12.000	57.000	3.000	2.7794	0.9044	0.3088	0.6397	0.2647	1.2573	0.0662
season	0.20	8	45.100	14.000	29.000	12.000	57.000	3.000	2.7794	0.9044	0.3088	0.6397	0.2647	1.2573	0.0662

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5100
predicted_ER	1.9590
predicted_ERA	3.3383
predicted_H	4.1930
predicted_HR	0.4840
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	6.1070
predicted_WHIP	1.0797

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.5100	1.7611	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.9590	1.9800	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3383	3.3383	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.1930	5.1191	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4840	0.7484	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.1000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	6.1070	5.0272	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0797	1.0797	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	4
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	98

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.78
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	100
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	690997
playerID	690997
playerName	Nolan McLean
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Austin Warren (681810) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.625	2.000	-0.625	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.200	2.000	-0.100	-0.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.625	3.000	1.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	0.000	5.000	5.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3636	0.0000	0.6818	0.6818	1.0909	0.0000
last_10	0.35	8	11.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	0.8182	1.0909	0.0909	0.6364	0.4546	1.1818	0.0909
season	0.20	8	11.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	0.8182	1.0909	0.0909	0.6364	0.4546	1.1818	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6000
predicted_ER	0.4430
predicted_ERA	2.9900
predicted_H	1.1420
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3430
predicted_WHIP	1.3064

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6000	0.2136	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4430	0.1577	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9900	2.9900	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1420	0.4065	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1310	0.0466	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.3430	2.4102	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3064	1.3064	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.82
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	41
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	25
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	681810
playerID	681810
playerName	Austin Warren
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.828	1.000	0.272	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.111	1.000	-0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	1.1250	0.0000	0.7500	0.3750	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	0.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9310	0.0000	0.6207	0.3103	1.1379	0.0000
season	0.20	18	17.000	2.000	10.000	6.000	20.000	1.000	1.0588	0.9412	0.1177	0.5882	0.3529	1.1765	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4400
predicted_ER	0.3440
predicted_ERA	2.5822
predicted_H	0.9970
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2360
predicted_WHIP	1.1989

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4400	0.1750	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3440	0.1368	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5822	2.5822	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9970	0.3966	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0980	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2360	1.0939	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1989	1.1989	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.06
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 16

All-history rows before 20260514: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.938	0.000	-0.938	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.781	1.000	0.319	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.375	1.000	-1.375	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000	0.2143	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	6.000	9.000	2.000	15.000	1.000	6.2308	1.2692	0.6923	1.0385	0.2308	1.7308	0.1154
season	0.20	15	13.200	6.000	14.000	4.000	22.000	1.000	3.9512	1.3171	0.4390	1.0244	0.2927	1.6098	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4010
predicted_ER	0.5080
predicted_ERA	3.7562
predicted_H	0.9830
predicted_HR	0.1250
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4410
predicted_WHIP	1.1381

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4010	0.1508	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5080	0.1911	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7562	3.7562	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9830	0.3697	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1250	0.0470	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4410	0.5420	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1381	1.1381	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.27
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Huascar Brazobán (623211) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.933	2.100	0.067	-1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.889	2.000	-0.889	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	3.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	4.0500	0.9000	0.4500	0.1500	0.7500	0.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	9.000	1.000	3.7500	1.0000	0.4167	0.3333	0.6667	0.7500	0.0833
season	0.20	18	21.000	5.000	12.000	8.000	16.000	1.000	2.1429	0.9524	0.2381	0.5714	0.3810	0.7619	0.0476

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5780
predicted_ER	0.4990
predicted_ERA	3.9010
predicted_H	0.7460
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9600
predicted_WHIP	1.1494

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5780	0.2425	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4990	0.2094	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9010	3.9010	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7460	0.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1010	0.0424	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9600	0.4028	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1494	1.1494	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.14
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	21
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	623211
playerID	623211
playerName	Huascar Brazobán
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.824	1.000	-0.824	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.924	1.000	-0.724	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3125	0.0000	0.7500	0.5625	1.6875	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	4.000	13.000	1.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	1.2188	0.0938
season	0.20	17	17.100	8.000	14.000	7.000	17.000	2.000	4.1538	1.2115	0.4615	0.8077	0.4038	0.9808	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_ER	0.2730
predicted_ERA	3.0567
predicted_H	0.6960
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9070
predicted_WHIP	1.2816

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3330	0.1331	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2730	0.1091	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0567	3.0567	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6960	0.2782	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0790	0.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9070	0.3626	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2816	1.2816	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

20260514_KC@CHW

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "KC 5 - 4 CHW", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "KC 5 - 4 CHW", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "KC"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "KC 4 - 6 CHW", "winner": "CHW"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": true, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	KC 5 - 4 CHW	KC	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	KC 4 - 6 CHW	CHW	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away KC	5-5	0.500	4.30	3.90	4	3L	average	average
Home CHW	6-4	0.600	4.60	4	6	4W	average	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-13	KC @ CHW	5 - 6	CHW	1	close
2026-05-12	KC @ CHW	5 - 6	CHW	1	close
2026-04-12	CHW @ KC	6 - 5	CHW	1	close
2026-04-11	CHW @ KC	0 - 2	KC	2	close
2026-04-10	CHW @ KC	0 - 2	KC	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target KC	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target CHW	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized KC	31	9	2	0	3	2	8
Player finalized CHW	32	9	3	0	3	2	10
Player model fractional KC	31.69	7.30	3.59	0.88	3.79	3.53	6.91
Player model fractional CHW	30.04	6.68	3.59	1.07	3.76	3.10	8.38
Simulation box KC	34	7	4	0	4	6	6
Simulation box CHW	32	9	6	1	6	3	9

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away KC	Starter	Kris Bubic	3.10	4	5	4	3	4.03	1.31	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Lynch IV	1.10	0	0	2	0	3.38	1.14	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Lucas Erceg	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.31	1.32	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Matt Strahm	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.99	1.22	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Nick Mears	0.20	2	2	2	0	4.12	1.36	True
Home CHW	Starter	Anthony Kay	4.10	2	3	4	3	5.35	1.60	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Sean Newcomb	1.10	1	1	0	1	4.48	1.35	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Seranthony Domínguez	1.10	1	1	0	0	4.65	1.40	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Bryan Hudson	1	0	0	2	1	2.96	1.42	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Grant Taylor	1	0	1	1	1	3.38	1.25	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: KC

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2785

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.950	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.950	3.000	0.050	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	2.000	-0.450	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.100	0.000	-1.100	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.400	-0.148	-0.200
predicted_R	0.525	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.525	1.000	-0.525	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.425	0.000	-0.425	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	2.000	-0.700	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.950	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.394	-
predicted_R	0.525	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.314	0.014
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.831	-0.119
predicted_AVG	0.298	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.545	0.095
predicted_H	1.098	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.000
predicted_R	0.519	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.485	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.590	-0.110

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.950

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.3333	0.4545	0.4444	0.3333	0.0000	0.1667	0.2222	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.2895	0.3864	0.3684	0.2895	0.0000	0.1053	0.1579	0.1053
season	0.20	40	-	158.000	44.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	17.000	21.000	18.000	28.000	0.2785	0.3483	0.4241	0.2785	0.0190	0.1076	0.1139	0.1772

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3230
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7480
predicted_AVG	0.2979
predicted_BB	0.6120
predicted_H	1.1170
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.3944
predicted_R	0.5150
predicted_RBI	0.4950
predicted_SLG	0.4109
predicted_SO	0.5140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.3230	0.3135	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0060	0.0138	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9500	3.7480	3.8310	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2979	0.2979	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.6120	0.5454	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.1170	1.0977	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0290	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3940	0.3944	0.3942	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5250	0.5150	0.5191	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4950	0.4847	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4109	0.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.5140	0.5904	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Salvador Perez (521692) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.1930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1925

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.927	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.927	4.000	1.073	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.148	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.193	0.000	0.007	0.200
predicted_BB	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.756	0.000	0.244	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.198	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.233	0.000	-0.033	0.200
predicted_R	0.366	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.335	0.000	-0.135	0.200
predicted_SO	0.927	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.927	1.000	-0.927	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.927	-
predicted_AVG	0.148	-
predicted_BB	0.146	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.198	-
predicted_R	0.366	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.276	-
predicted_SO	0.927	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	-0.043
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.892	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.148	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.180	0.034
predicted_H	0.546	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.198	-0.000
predicted_R	0.330	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.276	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.987	0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.139 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.927

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1000	0.1429	0.2500	0.1000	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	0.1351	0.1951	0.2162	0.1351	0.0270	0.1351	0.0541	0.3243
season	0.20	41	-	161.000	31.000	5.000	6.000	18.000	15.000	6.000	38.000	0.1925	0.2326	0.3354	0.1925	0.0373	0.1118	0.0373	0.2360

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8680
predicted_AVG	0.1476
predicted_BB	0.2040
predicted_H	0.5710
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.1978
predicted_R	0.3040
predicted_RBI	0.3750
predicted_SLG	0.2759
predicted_SO	1.0290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.0480	0.0785	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9270	3.8680	3.8924	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1480	0.1476	0.1478	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1460	0.2040	0.1801	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.5710	0.5458	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1480	0.1406	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1980	0.1978	0.1979	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3660	0.3040	0.3296	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3750	0.3606	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2760	0.2759	0.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9270	1.0290	0.9869	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.193

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	521692
playerID	521692
playerName	Salvador Perez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Loftin (679845) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 12

All-history rows before 20260514: 12

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1892

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.083	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.083	2.000	1.917	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.400	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.000	0.211	0.400
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.583	0.000	1.417	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.089	0.150
predicted_R	0.583	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.583	0.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	1.000	1.417	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.258	0.400	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.243	0.000	0.157	0.400
predicted_SO	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.083	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.258	-
predicted_SO	0.417	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.123	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.185	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.491	-0.009
predicted_H	0.530	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.114	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.459	-0.124
predicted_RBI	0.542	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.258	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.0833	0.2941	0.0833	0.0833	0.2500	0.2500	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.2000	0.3243	0.2333	0.2000	0.2333	0.1667	0.1667
season	0.20	12	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	5.000	0.1892	0.3111	0.2432	0.1892	0.1892	0.1622	0.1351

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.1670
predicted_AVG	0.1848
predicted_BB	0.4810
predicted_H	0.5850
predicted_HBP	0.1140
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.3070
predicted_R	0.3260
predicted_RBI	0.5980
predicted_SLG	0.2584
predicted_SO	0.5900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1020	0.1357	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0830	3.1670	3.1234	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1848	0.1849	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4810	0.4909	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.5850	0.5305	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1140	0.1140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0410	0.0353	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3070	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.3260	0.4594	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5980	0.5419	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2580	0.2584	0.2582	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4170	0.5900	0.5002	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	679845
playerID	679845
playerName	Nick Loftin
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Starling Marte (516782) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 11

All-history rows before 20260514: 11

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.273	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.273	3.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.335	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.333	0.333	0.333
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.091	1.000	0.909	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.500	0.375	0.250
predicted_R	0.182	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.333	0.250	0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.273	-
predicted_AVG	0.335	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.182	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.445	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.348	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.335	0.000
predicted_BB	0.233	0.051
predicted_H	1.023	0.113
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000
predicted_R	0.244	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.325	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.445	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.951	-0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.4667	0.5000	0.5333	0.4667	0.1333	0.1333	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.3636	0.4054	0.4545	0.3636	0.0606	0.0606	0.3030
season	0.20	11	-	36.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.4167	0.3333	0.0556	0.0556	0.3056

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2230
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4330
predicted_AVG	0.3354
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_H	1.1510
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.3833
predicted_R	0.3150
predicted_RBI	0.3640
predicted_SLG	0.4446
predicted_SO	0.8950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.2230	0.2496	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2730	3.4330	3.3480	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3350	0.3354	0.3352	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.2910	0.2331	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	1.1510	1.0230	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0433	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3833	0.3831	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1820	0.3150	0.2444	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3640	0.3247	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4450	0.4446	0.4448	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8950	0.9508	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	516782
playerID	516782
playerName	Starling Marte
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Isaac Collins (686555) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 33

All-history rows before 20260514: 33

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2321

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.394	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.394	3.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.000	-0.232	0.000
predicted_BB	0.515	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.515	0.000	0.485	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.788	0.000	-0.788	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.250	-0.096	0.000
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	1.121	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.121	0.000	0.879	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.394	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.515	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	1.121	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.039
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.406	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.467	-0.048
predicted_H	0.710	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.124	-
predicted_HR	0.059	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.333	-0.000
predicted_R	0.438	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000
predicted_SO	0.992	-0.129

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	9.000	0.2812	0.3846	0.4688	0.2812	0.0312	0.1250	0.1562	0.2812
season	0.20	33	-	112.000	26.000	5.000	3.000	13.000	15.000	17.000	37.000	0.2321	0.3459	0.3571	0.2321	0.0268	0.1161	0.1518	0.3304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2200
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4150
predicted_AVG	0.2279
predicted_BB	0.4310
predicted_H	0.7780
predicted_HBP	0.1240
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.3326
predicted_R	0.4260
predicted_RBI	0.3380
predicted_SLG	0.3511
predicted_SO	0.8950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.2200	0.1909	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3940	3.4150	3.4060	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2279	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5150	0.4310	0.4669	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7780	0.7104	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1240	0.1240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0660	0.0592	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3326	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.4260	0.4384	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3380	0.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3511	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1210	0.8950	0.9917	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	686555
playerID	686555
playerName	Isaac Collins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 43

All-history rows before 20260514: 43

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3059

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.953	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.953	3.000	0.047	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.343	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.333	-0.056	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.488	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.488	2.000	0.512	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.209	1.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_HR	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.163	1.000	-0.163	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.414	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.378	0.600	0.022	-0.200
predicted_R	0.512	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.512	2.000	0.488	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	2.000	-0.512	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.731	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.506	1.333	-0.256	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.767	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.767	1.000	0.233	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.953	-
predicted_AVG	0.343	-
predicted_BB	0.488	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.390	-
predicted_OBP	0.414	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.731	-
predicted_SO	0.767	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.914	-0.039
predicted_AVG	0.343	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.483	-0.005
predicted_H	1.287	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.414	0.024
predicted_OBP	0.414	0.000
predicted_R	0.729	0.217
predicted_RBI	0.729	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.731	0.000
predicted_SO	0.693	-0.074

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.326 HR/AB=0.105

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.953

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	0.3684	0.4545	0.8947	0.3684	0.1579	0.2632	0.1579	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	15.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	7.000	11.000	4.000	8.000	0.3750	0.4318	0.8000	0.3750	0.1250	0.1750	0.1000	0.2000
season	0.20	43	-	170.000	52.000	11.000	1.000	7.000	22.000	22.000	21.000	33.000	0.3059	0.3782	0.5059	0.3059	0.0412	0.1294	0.1235	0.1941

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2070
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.8870
predicted_AVG	0.3428
predicted_BB	0.4790
predicted_H	1.3330
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.4310
predicted_OBP	0.4143
predicted_R	0.8780
predicted_RBI	0.7560
predicted_SLG	0.7314
predicted_SO	0.6430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2070	0.2269	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0060	0.0129	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9530	3.8870	3.9139	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3430	0.3428	0.3429	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4880	0.4790	0.4827	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.3330	1.2870	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3900	0.4310	0.4143	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4140	0.4143	0.4142	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.8780	0.7291	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.7560	0.7291	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7310	0.7314	0.7312	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7670	0.6430	0.6934	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Kyle Isbel (664728) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 32

All-history rows before 20260514: 32

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.094	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.094	4.000	-0.094	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.250	0.061	0.083
predicted_BB	0.188	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	0.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.844	1.000	0.156	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.167	0.250
predicted_R	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	0.000	1.688	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.290	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.250	0.263	0.417
predicted_SO	0.719	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.719	0.000	0.281	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.094	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.290	-
predicted_SO	0.719	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.162	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000
predicted_BB	0.161	-0.027
predicted_H	0.657	0.097
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.000
predicted_R	0.325	-0.050
predicted_RBI	0.312	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.290	0.000
predicted_SO	0.634	-0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.1333	0.0000	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2258	0.2727	0.2581	0.2258	0.0000	0.0645	0.0645	0.1613
season	0.20	32	-	99.000	27.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	12.000	6.000	23.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.4040	0.2727	0.0303	0.1010	0.0606	0.2323

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2150
predicted_AVG	0.2280
predicted_BB	0.1400
predicted_H	0.7330
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.2637
predicted_R	0.2850
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.2901
predicted_SO	0.5670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0820	0.1010	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0940	3.2150	3.1615	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2280	0.2280	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.1400	0.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.7330	0.6566	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0380	0.0345	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2637	0.2638	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.2850	0.3248	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3450	0.3119	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2900	0.2901	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7190	0.5670	0.6342	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	664728
playerID	664728
playerName	Kyle Isbel
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Vinnie Pasquantino (686469) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.250	-0.211	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.250	-0.091	-0.050
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.525	2.000	-0.525	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.250	-0.362	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.850	1.000	0.150	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	0.850	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.084	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.023
predicted_AB	3.852	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.382	-0.068
predicted_H	1.012	0.112
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.299	-0.101
predicted_RBI	0.499	0.059
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	0.705	-0.145

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.3158	0.3158	0.0000	0.1579	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2927	0.3256	0.3902	0.2927	0.0244	0.1220	0.0488	0.1463
season	0.20	40	-	152.000	32.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	21.000	16.000	18.000	34.000	0.2105	0.2914	0.3618	0.2105	0.0329	0.1382	0.1184	0.2237

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.8890
predicted_AVG	0.2804
predicted_BB	0.3350
predicted_H	1.0910
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.3381
predicted_R	0.2290
predicted_RBI	0.5400
predicted_SLG	0.3574
predicted_SO	0.6040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0730	0.0841	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0110	0.0271	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.8890	3.8523	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2804	0.2802	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.3350	0.3824	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0910	1.0123	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0680	0.0647	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3381	0.3381	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.2290	0.2994	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5400	0.4988	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3574	0.3572	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8500	0.6040	0.7053	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	686469
playerID	686469
playerName	Vinnie Pasquantino
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	KC
teamID	12

Lane Thomas (657041) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 21

All-history rows before 20260514: 21

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2090

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	3.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_BB	0.619	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.619	1.000	1.381	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.400	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.075	0.150
predicted_R	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.190	1.000	-0.190	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.217	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_SO	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.810	2.000	0.190	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.144	-
predicted_BB	0.619	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.190	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.217	-
predicted_SO	0.810	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.022	0.022
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.159	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.144	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.591	-0.028
predicted_H	0.435	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.115	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.247	0.057
predicted_RBI	0.232	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.217	0.000
predicted_SO	0.858	0.048

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.138 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.0000	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2143	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	8.000	0.2000	0.3684	0.3000	0.2000	0.0333	0.1333	0.2333	0.2667
season	0.20	21	-	66.000	12.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	17.000	0.1818	0.3250	0.2273	0.1818	0.0152	0.0606	0.1970	0.2576

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0410
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1730
predicted_AVG	0.1439
predicted_BB	0.5670
predicted_H	0.4560
predicted_HBP	0.1150
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.2970
predicted_R	0.2960
predicted_RBI	0.2430
predicted_SLG	0.2170
predicted_SO	0.9000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0410	0.0219	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.1730	3.1590	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1440	0.1439	0.1439	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6190	0.5670	0.5912	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.4560	0.4346	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1150	0.1150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0620	0.0611	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2970	0.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1900	0.2960	0.2467	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2430	0.2323	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2170	0.2170	0.2170	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8100	0.9000	0.8581	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	657041
playerID	657041
playerName	Lane Thomas
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Kris Bubic (663460) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.875	4.000	0.125	-1.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	2.250	3.000	1.750	1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	3.875	4.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	3.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.675	5.200	-2.575	-2.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.875	5.000	-0.875	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.100	13.000	23.000	16.000	24.000	1.000	4.1294	1.3765	0.4588	0.8118	0.5647	0.8471	0.0353
last_10	0.35	8	46.100	18.000	31.000	23.000	47.000	3.000	3.4964	1.1655	0.3885	0.6691	0.4964	1.0144	0.0648
season	0.20	8	46.100	18.000	31.000	23.000	47.000	3.000	3.4964	1.1655	0.3885	0.6691	0.4964	1.0144	0.0648

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2910
predicted_ER	2.1330
predicted_ERA	4.0258
predicted_H	3.9720
predicted_HR	0.3670
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.3990
predicted_WHIP	1.3132

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.2910	2.6544	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.1330	3.0898	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0258	4.0258	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.9720	3.9863	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3670	0.1789	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	4.2000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.3990	4.7070	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3132	1.3132	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	4
R	4
ER	4
BB	3
SO	5
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	86

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	663460
playerID	663460
playerName	Kris Bubic
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Daniel Lynch IV (663738) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.471	1.000	1.529	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.924	1.000	0.176	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.353	2.000	-1.353	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.6000	0.4000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	1.000	2.7931	0.8276	0.3103	0.6207	0.2069	1.3448	0.1035
season	0.20	17	17.100	4.000	8.000	5.000	23.000	1.000	2.0769	0.7500	0.2308	0.4615	0.2885	1.3269	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4210
predicted_ER	0.4490
predicted_ERA	3.3753
predicted_H	0.9490
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3900
predicted_WHIP	1.1442

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4210	0.1683	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4490	0.1795	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3753	3.3753	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9490	1.5799	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1150	0.0460	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3900	0.5557	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1442	1.1442	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663738
playerID	663738
playerName	Daniel Lynch IV
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.706	1.000	-0.706	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.647	1.000	-0.647	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	0.194	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.824	0.000	0.176	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.6000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	6.000	10.000	10.000	3.7241	1.6552	0.4138	0.6207	1.0345	1.0345
season	0.20	17	16.100	6.000	11.000	12.000	14.000	3.3061	1.4082	0.3674	0.6735	0.7347	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6460
predicted_ER	0.4420
predicted_ERA	3.3099
predicted_H	0.9360
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1640
predicted_WHIP	1.3161

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6460	0.2543	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4420	0.1740	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3099	3.3099	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9360	0.3685	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1640	1.0646	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3161	1.3161	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.31
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Matt Strahm (621381) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 16

All-history rows before 20260514: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.812	1.000	0.188	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	0.150	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.6000	0.8000	0.4000	0.6000	0.2000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	9.000	4.000	11.000	2.000	3.6000	1.3000	0.4000	0.9000	0.4000	1.1000	0.2000
season	0.20	16	15.200	7.000	13.000	6.000	16.000	3.000	4.0213	1.2128	0.4468	0.8298	0.3830	1.0213	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4240
predicted_ER	0.5350
predicted_ERA	3.9913
predicted_H	1.0450
predicted_HR	0.1870
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1510
predicted_WHIP	1.2190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4240	0.1652	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5350	0.2084	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9913	3.9913	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0450	1.0175	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1870	0.0728	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1510	1.0588	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2190	1.2190	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.02
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	621381
playerID	621381
playerName	Matt Strahm
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Mears (683232) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.294	2.000	1.706	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.647	2.000	1.353	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.753	0.200	-0.553	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.647	1.000	1.353	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	2.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.9091	1.6364	0.5454	1.3636	0.2727	0.5454	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	3.3750	1.2500	0.3750	0.8750	0.3750	0.6250	0.1250
season	0.20	17	14.200	5.000	11.000	7.000	11.000	1.000	3.0682	1.2273	0.3409	0.7500	0.4773	0.7500	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2550
predicted_ER	0.3160
predicted_ERA	4.1167
predicted_H	0.6820
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5750
predicted_WHIP	1.3562

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2550	0.0977	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3160	1.3550	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1167	4.1167	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6820	1.4952	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1020	0.6560	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.5750	1.4542	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3562	1.3562	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.07
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	683232
playerID	683232
playerName	Nick Mears
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Home Team: CHW

Randal Grichuk (545341) · BATTER · LF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 3

All-history rows before 20260514: 3

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): -0.0560

System opponent_avg: 0.1360

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by -0.0560. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.769	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.667	3.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.333	0.083	0.000
predicted_BB	0.077	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.333	0.167	0.167
predicted_R	0.308	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.625	1.333	-0.292	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.923	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.769	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.077	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.425	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.951	0.182
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.104	0.027
predicted_H	0.665	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.106	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.000
predicted_R	0.339	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.375	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.000
predicted_SO	0.883	-0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.4615	0.2308	0.0769	0.1538	0.0000	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.2593	0.3000	0.4815	0.2593	0.0370	0.1482	0.0370	0.2593
season	0.20	13	-	36.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	12.000	0.1944	0.2308	0.3611	0.1944	0.0278	0.1111	0.0278	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.1590
predicted_AVG	0.2380
predicted_BB	0.1360
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HBP	0.1060
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.2908
predicted_R	0.3740
predicted_RBI	0.4260
predicted_SLG	0.4249
predicted_SO	0.8380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.1640	0.1998	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7690	3.1590	2.9509	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2380	0.2380	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0770	0.1360	0.1045	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7520	0.6655	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1060	0.1060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1390	0.1235	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2908	0.2909	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.3740	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4260	0.3748	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4250	0.4249	0.4250	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.8380	0.8834	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	545341
playerID	545341
playerName	Randal Grichuk
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHW
teamID	6

Munetaka Murakami (808959) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2260

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.650	4.000	-0.650	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.250	0.107	0.083
predicted_BB	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.825	1.000	0.175	0.000
predicted_HR	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.400	-0.113	-0.150
predicted_R	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.725	0.000	2.275	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.541	0.250	0.792	1.083
predicted_SO	1.525	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.525	0.000	-0.525	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.025	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.650	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.800	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.700	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	1.525	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.045	0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.660	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.741	-0.059
predicted_H	0.684	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.237	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000
predicted_R	0.597	-0.103
predicted_RBI	0.428	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	1.501	-0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.2222	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	7.000	16.000	0.1892	0.3182	0.4595	0.1892	0.0811	0.1622	0.1892	0.4324
season	0.20	40	-	146.000	33.000	1.000	15.000	29.000	28.000	32.000	61.000	0.2260	0.3631	0.5411	0.2260	0.1027	0.1986	0.2192	0.4178

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6670
predicted_AVG	0.1947
predicted_BB	0.6990
predicted_H	0.7140
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2490
predicted_OBP	0.3240
predicted_R	0.5250
predicted_RBI	0.4470
predicted_SLG	0.4155
predicted_SO	1.4840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0250	0.0590	0.0450	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6500	3.6670	3.6600	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1947	0.1948	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8000	0.6990	0.7405	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7140	0.6836	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2490	0.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3240	0.3240	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7000	0.5250	0.5969	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4470	0.4277	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4155	0.4153	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5250	1.4840	1.5008	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	808959
playerID	808959
playerName	Munetaka Murakami
pos	IF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Andrew Benintendi (643217) · BATTER · DH · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 28

All-history rows before 20260514: 28

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2453

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1720

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.786	2.000	0.214	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.000	-0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	0.000	-0.929	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.333	-0.281	-0.333
predicted_R	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.000	-0.377	0.000
predicted_SO	1.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.286	0.000	-0.286	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	3.786	-
predicted_AVG	0.318	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.393	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	1.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.110	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.038	-0.033
predicted_AB	3.650	-0.136
predicted_AVG	0.318	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	0.061
predicted_H	1.075	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.361	-0.000
predicted_R	0.350	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.467	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000
predicted_SO	1.035	-0.251

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.4118	0.4500	0.4118	0.4118	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.3235	0.2941	0.0000	0.1765	0.0882	0.2647
season	0.20	28	-	106.000	26.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	14.000	11.000	6.000	36.000	0.2453	0.2807	0.3774	0.2453	0.0189	0.1321	0.0566	0.3396

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5440
predicted_AVG	0.3179
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_H	1.1260
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.3607
predicted_R	0.3160
predicted_RBI	0.4880
predicted_SLG	0.3782
predicted_SO	0.8400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0850	0.1104	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.0130	0.0384	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7860	3.5440	3.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3180	0.3179	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.3220	0.2747	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.1260	1.0752	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3607	0.3608	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3930	0.3160	0.3497	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4880	0.4670	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3782	0.3781	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2860	0.8400	1.0354	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	643217
playerID	643217
playerName	Andrew Benintendi
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHW
teamID	6

Miguel Vargas (678246) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 39

All-history rows before 20260514: 39

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2378

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1190

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.250	0.096	0.083
predicted_BB	0.744	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.744	1.000	0.256	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.872	1.000	0.128	0.000
predicted_HR	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.438	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.400	0.127	0.100
predicted_R	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.769	1.000	0.231	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.590	0.000	0.410	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.645	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.476	0.250	-0.142	0.083
predicted_SO	0.692	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	1.000	-0.692	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.333	-
predicted_BB	0.744	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.438	-
predicted_R	0.769	-
predicted_RBI	0.760	-
predicted_SLG	0.645	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.018
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.578	-0.089
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.000
predicted_BB	0.700	-0.044
predicted_H	1.142	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.130	-
predicted_HR	0.301	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.438	-0.000
predicted_R	0.863	0.094
predicted_RBI	0.789	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.645	0.000
predicted_SO	0.619	-0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.312 HR/AB=0.082

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	0.4375	0.5455	0.8750	0.4375	0.1250	0.3125	0.2500	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	6.000	6.000	0.2973	0.4000	0.5676	0.2973	0.0811	0.2162	0.1622	0.1622
season	0.20	39	-	143.000	34.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	23.000	30.000	29.000	27.000	0.2378	0.3729	0.4755	0.2378	0.0629	0.1608	0.2028	0.1888

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1580
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5160
predicted_AVG	0.3333
predicted_BB	0.6690
predicted_H	1.1720
predicted_HBP	0.1300
predicted_HR	0.3090
predicted_OBP	0.4376
predicted_R	0.9280
predicted_RBI	0.8100
predicted_SLG	0.6450
predicted_SO	0.5680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.1580	0.1457	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.5160	3.5781	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3330	0.3333	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7440	0.6690	0.6998	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.1720	1.1424	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1300	0.1300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.3090	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4380	0.4376	0.4378	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7690	0.9280	0.8626	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7600	0.8100	0.7894	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6450	0.6450	0.6450	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.5680	0.6190	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	678246
playerID	678246
playerName	Miguel Vargas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Edgar Quero (700337) · BATTER · C · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 23

All-history rows before 20260514: 23

System season_avg: 0.1650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1646

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.435	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.435	3.000	0.565	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.165	0.333	0.335	0.167
predicted_BB	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.565	1.000	1.435	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.233	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.242	0.250	0.258	0.250
predicted_R	0.087	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.087	0.000	0.913	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.304	1.000	0.696	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.225	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.177	0.333	0.323	0.167
predicted_SO	0.913	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.913	1.000	0.087	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.435	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.348	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.233	-
predicted_R	0.087	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.225	-
predicted_SO	0.913	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.046	0.003
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.538	0.103
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.254	-0.094
predicted_H	0.607	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.109	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.000
predicted_R	0.163	0.076
predicted_RBI	0.476	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.225	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.024	0.111

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.1667	0.1905	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	0.1667	0.2143	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0556	0.3056
season	0.20	23	-	79.000	13.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	21.000	0.1646	0.2418	0.1772	0.1646	0.0886	0.1013	0.2658

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0490
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6240
predicted_AVG	0.1855
predicted_BB	0.1750
predicted_H	0.6720
predicted_HBP	0.1090
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2329
predicted_R	0.2260
predicted_RBI	0.5230
predicted_SLG	0.2247
predicted_SO	1.1160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0430	0.0490	0.0463	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4350	3.6240	3.5381	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1855	0.1853	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3480	0.1750	0.2537	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6720	0.6074	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1090	0.1090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0249	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2330	0.2329	0.2329	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0870	0.2260	0.1628	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5230	0.4762	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2250	0.2247	0.2248	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9130	1.1160	1.0237	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.165

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	700337
playerID	700337
playerName	Edgar Quero
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHW
teamID	6

Chase Meidroth (805367) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 39

All-history rows before 20260514: 39

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2770

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.795	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.795	2.000	0.205	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.000	-0.027	0.250
predicted_BB	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.051	0.000	-0.051	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.000	-0.093	0.250
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.399	0.000	-0.149	0.250
predicted_SO	1.077	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.077	0.000	0.923	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.795	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.410	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.490	-
predicted_SO	1.077	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	0.030
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.691	-0.104
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000
predicted_BB	0.267	-0.143
predicted_H	0.958	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.165	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.596	-0.071
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.490	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.178	0.101

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.5294	0.2353	0.0588	0.2353	0.0000	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	2.000	16.000	0.3243	0.3500	0.5405	0.3243	0.0541	0.1622	0.0541	0.4324
season	0.20	39	-	148.000	41.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	26.000	16.000	42.000	0.2770	0.3434	0.3986	0.2770	0.0203	0.0608	0.1081	0.2838

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6170
predicted_AVG	0.2701
predicted_BB	0.1660
predicted_H	0.9770
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_OBP	0.2983
predicted_R	0.5450
predicted_RBI	0.6040
predicted_SLG	0.4899
predicted_SO	1.2490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2830	0.2614	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7950	3.6170	3.6908	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2701	0.2701	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4100	0.1660	0.2672	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9770	0.9575	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1690	0.1653	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2983	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5450	0.5956	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6040	0.5899	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4900	0.4899	0.4899	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0770	1.2490	1.1777	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	805367
playerID	805367
playerName	Chase Meidroth
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Jarred Kelenic (672284) · BATTER · RF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3040

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.875	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.875	3.000	1.125	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.000	-0.011	0.250
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.000	-0.070	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.261	0.000	-0.011	0.250
predicted_SO	0.375	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.375	2.000	0.625	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.300	-
predicted_SO	0.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.036	0.036
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.050	0.175
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.285	0.035
predicted_H	0.592	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.047	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.099	0.099
predicted_RBI	0.269	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.000
predicted_SO	0.512	0.137

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.1538	0.2667	0.1538	0.1538	0.0769	0.1538	0.2308
last_10	0.35	8	-	23.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2609	0.3200	0.2609	0.2609	0.0435	0.0870	0.1304
season	0.20	8	-	23.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2609	0.3200	0.2609	0.2609	0.0435	0.0870	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.2930
predicted_AVG	0.2184
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_H	0.7190
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.2955
predicted_R	0.2350
predicted_RBI	0.3220
predicted_SLG	0.3005
predicted_SO	0.7020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0850	0.0357	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0029	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8750	3.2930	3.0504	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2184	0.2182	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3330	0.2848	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.7190	0.5919	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0570	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2955	0.2952	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.2350	0.0986	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.3220	0.2686	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3000	0.3005	0.3002	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3750	0.7020	0.5122	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	672284
playerID	672284
playerName	Jarred Kelenic
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Derek Hill (656537) · BATTER · CF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 11

All-history rows before 20260514: 11

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2069

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4240

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.636	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.636	3.000	1.364	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.293	0.500
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.545	0.000	1.455	2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.000	0.242	0.500
predicted_R	0.273	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.310	0.000	0.190	0.500
predicted_SO	1.091	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.091	0.000	0.909	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.636	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.375	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	0.033
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.882	0.246
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.198	0.016
predicted_H	0.569	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.112	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.000
predicted_R	0.337	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.232	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.000
predicted_SO	1.035	-0.056

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1538	0.2143	0.3846	0.1538	0.0769	0.0769	0.0769	0.3846
last_10	0.35	10	-	26.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.2308	0.2593	0.3462	0.2308	0.0385	0.0385	0.0385	0.3462
season	0.20	11	-	29.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	0.2069	0.2581	0.3103	0.2069	0.0345	0.0345	0.0690	0.4138

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.1920
predicted_AVG	0.2172
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_H	0.6930
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.2715
predicted_R	0.4170
predicted_RBI	0.2840
predicted_SLG	0.3750
predicted_SO	0.9650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0740	0.0327	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0027	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6360	3.1920	2.8819	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2172	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.2180	0.1979	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.6930	0.5686	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1390	0.1117	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2715	0.2718	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.4170	0.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2840	0.2316	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3750	0.3750	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	0.9650	1.0353	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	656537
playerID	656537
playerName	Derek Hill
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Luisangel Acuña (682668) · BATTER · SS · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 25

All-history rows before 20260514: 25

System season_avg: 0.1560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1558

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.080	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.080	2.000	-0.080	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.141	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_BB	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.240	0.000	0.760	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.350	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.480	0.000	-0.480	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.225	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.224	0.000	0.026	0.250
predicted_R	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.192	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.169	0.000	-0.169	0.000
predicted_SO	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.520	0.000	-0.520	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.080	-
predicted_AVG	0.141	-
predicted_BB	0.240	-
predicted_H	0.350	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.225	-
predicted_R	0.280	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.192	-
predicted_SO	0.520	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.042	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.141	0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	0.040
predicted_H	0.390	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.225	-0.000
predicted_R	0.253	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.133	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.192	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.593	0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.127 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.0769	0.1429	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.0769	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.1111	0.2500	0.1481	0.1111	0.0370	0.1852	0.2222
season	0.20	25	-	77.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	13.000	0.1558	0.2235	0.1688	0.1558	0.0390	0.0779	0.1688

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0720
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.0090
predicted_AVG	0.1410
predicted_BB	0.3140
predicted_H	0.4240
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.2249
predicted_R	0.2300
predicted_RBI	0.1440
predicted_SLG	0.1917
predicted_SO	0.6560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0400	0.0720	0.0573	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0800	3.0090	3.0417	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1410	0.1410	0.1410	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2400	0.3140	0.2799	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3500	0.4240	0.3899	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0227	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2250	0.2249	0.2249	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2800	0.2300	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1440	0.1330	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1920	0.1917	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5200	0.6560	0.5934	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.156

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	682668
playerID	682668
playerName	Luisangel Acuña
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Anthony Kay (641743) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.125	2.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.375	0.000	-0.375	2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.750	3.000	-0.750	1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.112	5.000	-0.013	-0.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	3.125	5.000	-0.125	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	20.100	15.000	29.000	9.000	14.000	4.000	6.6393	1.8689	0.7377	1.4262	0.4426	0.6885	0.1967
last_10	0.35	8	35.000	19.000	38.000	17.000	25.000	6.000	4.8857	1.5714	0.5429	1.0857	0.4857	0.7143	0.1714
season	0.20	8	35.000	19.000	38.000	17.000	25.000	6.000	4.8857	1.5714	0.5429	1.0857	0.4857	0.7143	0.1714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7910
predicted_ER	2.4930
predicted_ERA	5.3510
predicted_H	4.9160
predicted_HR	0.6940
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	3.3430
predicted_WHIP	1.5993

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.7910	2.4106	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.4930	2.2403	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3510	5.3510	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.9160	4.4466	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6940	0.3383	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	3.3430	3.1672	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5993	1.5993	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	3
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	96

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.89
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	54
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	641743
playerID	641743
playerName	Anthony Kay
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Newcomb (656794) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 1

All-history rows before 20260514: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	3.000	3.000	-3.000	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.100	2.100	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
last_10	0.35	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
season	0.20	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5450
predicted_ER	0.7060
predicted_ERA	4.4818
predicted_H	1.3730
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2950
predicted_WHIP	1.3529

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5450	0.8802	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7060	0.9226	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4818	4.4818	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3730	0.3615	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1670	0.0440	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2950	1.0777	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3529	1.3529	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656794
playerID	656794
playerName	Sean Newcomb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Seranthony Domínguez (622554) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 2

All-history rows before 20260514: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.500	2.000	-1.500	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	0.100	0.550	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
season	0.20	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5180
predicted_ER	0.6720
predicted_ERA	4.6510
predicted_H	1.3060
predicted_HR	0.2080
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1820
predicted_WHIP	1.4039

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5180	0.1289	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6720	0.9184	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6510	4.6510	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3060	0.3249	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2080	0.0517	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1820	1.0453	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4039	1.4039	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	622554
playerID	622554
playerName	Seranthony Domínguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Bryan Hudson (663542) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 12

All-history rows before 20260514: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.917	1.000	1.083	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.817	1.000	0.183	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	-1.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.0000	1.8000	0.0000	1.0000	0.8000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	0.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	0.0000	1.3929	0.0000	0.8571	0.5357	1.2857
season	0.20	12	11.200	2.000	11.000	8.000	15.000	1.5429	1.6286	0.1714	0.9429	0.6857	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4770
predicted_ER	0.3280
predicted_ERA	2.9559
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0780
predicted_WHIP	1.4156

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4770	0.8111	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3280	0.1185	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9559	2.9559	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9390	1.6167	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0880	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0780	0.3894	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4156	1.4156	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260424_WAS@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663542
playerID	663542
playerName	Bryan Hudson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Grant Taylor (691799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 6

All-history rows before 20260514: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.100	-0.017	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125
last_10	0.35	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632
season	0.20	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_ER	0.3760
predicted_ERA	3.3801
predicted_H	0.9060
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0280
predicted_WHIP	1.2514

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3450	0.7954	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3760	0.1175	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3801	3.3801	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9060	0.9706	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1030	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0280	1.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2514	1.2514	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260409_CHW@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691799
playerID	691799
playerName	Grant Taylor
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

20260514_MIA@MIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "MIA 6 - 3 MIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "MIA 6 - 3 MIN", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIA 6 - 3 MIN", "winner": "MIA"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 MIN", "winner": "MIA"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	MIA 6 - 3 MIN	MIA	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	MIA 5 - 4 MIN	MIA	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away MIA	4-6	0.400	4.10	4.70	-6	1W	average	average
Home MIN	5-5	0.500	4.50	5.90	-14	1L	average	weak

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-13	MIA @ MIN	9 - 5	MIA	4	blowout
2026-05-12	MIA @ MIN	0 - 3	MIN	3	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target MIA	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Game target MIN	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized MIA	33	8	3	0	4	1	8
Player finalized MIN	33	7	2	1	2	4	9
Player model fractional MIA	31.87	6.76	4.10	1.03	3.92	3.04	7.19
Player model fractional MIN	32.44	7.55	4.45	1.23	3.76	3.83	7.82
Simulation box MIA	37	10	5	1	5	6	9
Simulation box MIN	34	7	4	2	4	2	12

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away MIA	Starter	Braxton Garrett	3.20	2	7	4	1	4.18	1.32	True
Away MIA	Starter	Sandy Alcantara	4	1	0	1	0	4.54	1.46	-
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Tyler Phillips	1.20	0	2	0	1	2.45	1.24	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Calvin Faucher	1.10	2	1	2	0	3.19	1.27	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	John King	1.10	0	2	0	0	3.10	1.03	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Anthony Bender	1	0	0	1	0	3.23	1.03	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Michael Petersen	0.20	1	2	1	0	4.91	1.37	-
Home MIN	Starter	Zebby Matthews	3.20	3	4	5	2	4.18	1.32	True
Home MIN	Starter	Joe Ryan	4.10	0	0	0	0	3.56	1.15	-
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Justin Topa	2.10	0	2	0	0	7.57	1.74	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Andrew Morris	1.10	1	2	1	0	3.52	1.25	-
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Taylor Rogers	1.10	0	1	1	1	3.32	1.32	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Luis García	1	0	2	3	0	4.73	1.33	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Eric Orze	0.20	2	0	1	3	3.97	1.38	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: MIA

Kyle Stowers (669065) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2267

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.023	0.250
predicted_BB	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	1.000	0.550	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.850	0.000	0.150	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.200	0.074	0.200
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.320	0.000	-0.070	0.250
predicted_SO	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.950	0.000	0.050	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.400	-
predicted_SO	0.950	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.672	-0.078
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.398	-0.052
predicted_H	0.836	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.119	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.480	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.321	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	0.851	-0.099

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3250	0.3611	0.2500	0.0278	0.0556	0.0833	0.2222
season	0.20	20	-	75.000	17.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	9.000	19.000	0.2267	0.3256	0.3200	0.2267	0.0133	0.0400	0.1200	0.2533

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6060
predicted_AVG	0.2401
predicted_BB	0.3530
predicted_H	0.8660
predicted_HBP	0.1190
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3283
predicted_R	0.4640
predicted_RBI	0.3310
predicted_SLG	0.4001
predicted_SO	0.7660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1690	0.1832	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.6060	3.6721	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2401	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.3530	0.3975	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8660	0.8357	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1190	0.1190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1340	0.1276	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3283	0.3282	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4640	0.4805	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3310	0.3214	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4000	0.4001	0.4001	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9500	0.7660	0.8505	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669065
playerID	669065
playerName	Kyle Stowers
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Leo Jiménez (677870) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 11

All-history rows before 20260514: 11

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.6000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	1.000	-0.091	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.545	5.000	2.455	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.200	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.600	-0.086	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.727	3.000	0.273	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.600	-0.200	-0.400
predicted_R	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	2.000	0.636	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.091	0.000	0.909	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.200	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.321	0.800	-0.121	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.029
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.093	0.293
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.285	-0.015
predicted_H	0.730	0.160
predicted_HBP	0.101	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.000
predicted_R	0.380	0.080
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000
predicted_SO	0.586	0.086

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2941	0.3500	0.3529	0.2941	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3636	0.3214	0.2857	0.0357	0.1071	0.1786
season	0.20	10	-	28.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3636	0.3214	0.2857	0.0357	0.1071	0.1786

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1650
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.4520
predicted_AVG	0.2683
predicted_BB	0.2670
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.1010
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.3318
predicted_R	0.4780
predicted_RBI	0.2920
predicted_SLG	0.3654
predicted_SO	0.6910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1650	0.1292	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0027	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	3.4520	3.0926	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2683	0.2681	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.2670	0.2852	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.9260	0.7298	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1010	0.1010	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0530	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3318	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.4780	0.3799	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2920	0.2303	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3654	0.3652	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6910	0.5857	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	677870
playerID	677870
playerName	Leo Jiménez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Owen Caissie (683357) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 30

All-history rows before 20260514: 30

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	3.000	1.833	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.200	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.333	0.000	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	1.000	-0.233	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.633	1.000	0.367	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	1.000	-0.067	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.200	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.500	-0.059	-0.300
predicted_R	0.367	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.367	2.000	0.633	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.567	2.000	0.433	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.200	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.326	1.333	-0.126	-1.133
predicted_SO	1.433	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.433	1.000	1.567	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.367	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	1.433	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-0.079
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.021	-0.146
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000
predicted_BB	0.340	0.107
predicted_H	0.476	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.129	-
predicted_HR	0.138	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.614	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	1.263	-0.170

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.150 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.1667	0.3529	0.4167	0.1667	0.0833	0.3333	0.2500	0.4167
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	0.1111	0.2121	0.2222	0.1111	0.0370	0.1852	0.1111	0.4444
season	0.20	30	-	95.000	19.000	6.000	2.000	17.000	11.000	7.000	43.000	0.2000	0.2593	0.3263	0.2000	0.0210	0.1789	0.0737	0.4526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0580
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	2.9060
predicted_AVG	0.1735
predicted_BB	0.4250
predicted_H	0.5040
predicted_HBP	0.1290
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_OBP	0.2893
predicted_R	0.4790
predicted_RBI	0.6480
predicted_SLG	0.3444
predicted_SO	1.1280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0580	0.1207	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	2.9060	3.0213	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1735	0.1733	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.4250	0.3402	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.5040	0.4757	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1290	0.1290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1450	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2893	0.2892	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3670	0.4790	0.4295	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6480	0.6135	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3444	0.3442	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4330	1.1280	1.2628	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	683357
playerID	683357
playerName	Owen Caissie
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Xavier Edwards (669364) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 42

All-history rows before 20260514: 42

System season_avg: 0.3140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3141

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	1.000	-0.190	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	1.000	-0.071	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	4.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.314	0.500	-0.064	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.548	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.548	1.000	0.452	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	2.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.402	0.600	-0.002	-0.200
predicted_R	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	3.000	-0.714	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.582	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.481	1.250	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.476	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.476	0.000	0.524	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.548	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.582	-
predicted_SO	0.476	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.100	0.029
predicted_AB	3.801	0.087
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.467	-0.081
predicted_H	0.967	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.261	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000
predicted_R	0.818	0.104
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.582	0.000
predicted_SO	0.628	0.152

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.069

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.7000	0.2500	0.1000	0.1500	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.5789	0.2632	0.0790	0.1316	0.1053	0.1316
season	0.20	42	-	156.000	49.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	15.000	30.000	23.000	20.000	0.3141	0.4022	0.4808	0.3141	0.0256	0.0961	0.1474	0.1282

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1650
predicted_3B	0.1200
predicted_AB	3.8620
predicted_AVG	0.2641
predicted_BB	0.4100
predicted_H	1.0200
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2750
predicted_OBP	0.3353
predicted_R	0.8900
predicted_RBI	0.5080
predicted_SLG	0.5823
predicted_SO	0.7340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1650	0.1753	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.1200	0.0999	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.8620	3.8012	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2641	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5480	0.4100	0.4667	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0200	0.9666	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2750	0.2606	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3353	0.3352	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.8900	0.8177	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5080	0.4801	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5820	0.5823	0.5822	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4760	0.7340	0.6281	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.314

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669364
playerID	669364
playerName	Xavier Edwards
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Otto Lopez (672640) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	4.024	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.024	4.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.250	-0.083	0.000
predicted_BB	0.171	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.171	1.000	0.829	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.341	1.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.400	0.034	0.000
predicted_R	0.634	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.634	0.000	-0.634	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.439	1.000	-0.439	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.430	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.491	0.250	-0.241	0.000
predicted_SO	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.780	1.000	0.220	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.049	-
predicted_AB	4.024	-
predicted_AVG	0.307	-
predicted_BB	0.171	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.634	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.430	-
predicted_SO	0.780	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.266	0.022
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.022
predicted_AB	4.030	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.000
predicted_BB	0.176	0.005
predicted_H	1.191	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000
predicted_R	0.529	-0.105
predicted_RBI	0.402	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.430	0.000
predicted_SO	0.762	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.295 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.024

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	14.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3488	0.4524	0.3333	0.0238	0.0952	0.0238	0.1429
season	0.20	41	-	165.000	55.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	18.000	26.000	7.000	32.000	0.3333	0.3657	0.4909	0.3333	0.0242	0.1091	0.0424	0.1939

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2820
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	4.0340
predicted_AVG	0.3074
predicted_BB	0.1800
predicted_H	1.2400
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3394
predicted_R	0.4550
predicted_RBI	0.4180
predicted_SLG	0.4303
predicted_SO	0.7490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.2820	0.2664	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0490	0.0110	0.0266	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0240	4.0340	4.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3070	0.3074	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1710	0.1800	0.1763	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.2400	1.1906	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0624	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3394	0.3392	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6340	0.4550	0.5287	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4180	0.4024	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4300	0.4303	0.4302	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7800	0.7490	0.7618	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	672640
playerID	672640
playerName	Otto Lopez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Javier Sanoja (691594) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 22

All-history rows before 20260514: 22

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2597

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-1.500	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.000	0.240	0.500
predicted_BB	0.273	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	1.727	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	0.000	0.091	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.000	0.437	0.750
predicted_R	0.136	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.136	0.000	0.864	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.251	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.000	0.188	0.500
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.136	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.251	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.546	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000
predicted_BB	0.281	0.008
predicted_H	0.573	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000
predicted_R	0.205	0.069
predicted_RBI	0.149	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.251	0.000
predicted_SO	0.531	0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.1471	0.2368	0.1765	0.1471	0.0000	0.1177	0.1471
season	0.20	22	-	77.000	20.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	0.2597	0.3133	0.3117	0.2597	0.0909	0.0779	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1650
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5860
predicted_AVG	0.1774
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_H	0.6360
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2401
predicted_R	0.2650
predicted_RBI	0.1660
predicted_SLG	0.2510
predicted_SO	0.5570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1650	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5860	3.5463	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1774	0.1772	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2870	0.2805	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6360	0.5731	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0300	0.0254	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2401	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1360	0.2650	0.2054	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1660	0.1494	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2510	0.2510	0.2510	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5570	0.5307	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691594
playerID	691594
playerName	Javier Sanoja
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Liam Hicks (689414) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 33

All-history rows before 20260514: 33

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3083

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.636	5.000	1.364	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.200	0.092	0.200
predicted_BB	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.121	1.000	0.879	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.200	0.035	0.200
predicted_R	0.606	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.606	1.000	0.394	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.152	3.000	-0.152	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.399	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.558	0.200	0.442	0.800
predicted_SO	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.636	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.606	-
predicted_RBI	0.890	-
predicted_SLG	0.399	-
predicted_SO	0.303	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.066	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.681	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.296	-0.007
predicted_H	0.794	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.191	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	-0.106
predicted_RBI	0.956	0.066
predicted_SLG	0.399	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.354	0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.3158	0.0526	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	10.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.4167	0.2500	0.0556	0.2778	0.1111	0.1111
season	0.20	33	-	120.000	37.000	3.000	9.000	38.000	20.000	10.000	10.000	0.3083	0.3650	0.5583	0.3083	0.0750	0.3167	0.0833	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7150
predicted_AVG	0.2245
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.1990
predicted_OBP	0.2983
predicted_R	0.4220
predicted_RBI	1.0050
predicted_SLG	0.3987
predicted_SO	0.3920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0470	0.0657	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6360	3.7150	3.6814	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2245	0.2247	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.2910	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8340	0.7940	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1990	0.1909	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2983	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6060	0.4220	0.5004	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8900	1.0050	0.9560	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3990	0.3987	0.3988	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3030	0.3920	0.3541	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	689414
playerID	689414
playerName	Liam Hicks
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Christopher Morel (666624) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 9

All-history rows before 20260514: 9

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.083	0.250
predicted_BB	0.222	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.230	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.242	0.000	0.158	0.400
predicted_R	0.222	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.111	0.000	1.889	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.240	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.167	0.000	0.083	0.250
predicted_SO	1.333	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	2.000	0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.230	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.240	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.036	0.036
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.442	0.109
predicted_AVG	0.169	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.231	0.009
predicted_H	0.530	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.230	0.000
predicted_R	0.274	0.052
predicted_RBI	0.268	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.240	0.000
predicted_SO	1.249	-0.084

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.0588	0.1111	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.35	9	-	30.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	0.1667	0.2424	0.1667	0.1667	0.0333	0.0667	0.4000
season	0.20	9	-	30.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	0.1667	0.2424	0.1667	0.1667	0.0333	0.0667	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5760
predicted_AVG	0.1686
predicted_BB	0.2430
predicted_H	0.6030
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.2300
predicted_R	0.3370
predicted_RBI	0.3030
predicted_SLG	0.2403
predicted_SO	1.1460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0800	0.0359	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0027	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.5760	3.4421	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1686	0.1688	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2430	0.2314	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.6030	0.5297	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0540	0.0463	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2300	0.2300	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.3370	0.2736	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.3030	0.2683	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2400	0.2403	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.1460	1.2491	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	666624
playerID	666624
playerName	Christopher Morel
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Jakob Marsee (805300) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.1780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1776

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.178	0.000	0.072	0.250
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.675	0.000	0.325	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.200	0.096	0.200
predicted_R	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.270	0.000	-0.020	0.250
predicted_SO	1.125	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	0.000	-1.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.550	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.348	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.026	-0.024
predicted_AB	3.582	-0.218
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.563	-0.037
predicted_H	0.669	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.253	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.348	-0.000
predicted_R	0.485	-0.065
predicted_RBI	0.501	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	0.971	-0.154

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2000	0.4000	0.4000	0.2000	0.0667	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	11.000	0.1944	0.3256	0.3056	0.1944	0.0278	0.1389	0.1389	0.3056
season	0.20	40	-	152.000	27.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	22.000	24.000	45.000	0.1776	0.3039	0.2697	0.1776	0.0132	0.0790	0.1579	0.2960

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0670
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.4310
predicted_AVG	0.2007
predicted_BB	0.5370
predicted_H	0.6890
predicted_HBP	0.2530
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.3477
predicted_R	0.4400
predicted_RBI	0.5150
predicted_SLG	0.3485
predicted_SO	0.8640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0670	0.0805	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0100	0.0264	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.4310	3.5823	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2007	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.5370	0.5628	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.6890	0.6689	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2530	0.2530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1400	0.1359	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3477	0.3478	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5500	0.4400	0.4851	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5150	0.5006	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3480	0.3485	0.3483	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	0.8640	0.9710	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.178

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	805300
playerID	805300
playerName	Jakob Marsee
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Braxton Garrett (666129) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 0

All-history rows before 20260514: 0

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3940
predicted_ER	1.7040
predicted_ERA	4.1823
predicted_H	3.4430
predicted_HR	0.4720
predicted_IP	3.2000
predicted_SO	3.5120
predicted_WHIP	1.3194

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.3940	1.0896	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.7040	1.9327	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1823	4.1823	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.4430	3.8733	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4720	0.8799	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	3.2000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	3.5120	6.2065	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3194	1.3194	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	7
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Sandy Alcantara (645261) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 9

All-history rows before 20260514: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.222	2.000	-2.222	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.778	2.000	-1.778	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	5.889	5.000	-4.889	-4.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.356	6.000	-2.356	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	4.333	3.000	-4.333	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	16.000	33.000	14.000	17.000	1.000	5.2683	1.7195	0.5854	1.2073	0.5122	0.6220	0.0366
last_10	0.35	9	57.200	25.000	53.000	20.000	39.000	4.000	3.9017	1.2659	0.4335	0.9191	0.3468	0.6763	0.0694
season	0.20	9	57.200	25.000	53.000	20.000	39.000	4.000	3.9017	1.2659	0.4335	0.9191	0.3468	0.6763	0.0694

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1660
predicted_ER	2.5770
predicted_ERA	4.5435
predicted_H	5.3100
predicted_HR	0.3960
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	3.8550
predicted_WHIP	1.4648

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.1660	1.0811	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.5770	1.7871	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5435	4.5435	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	5.3100	3.1512	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3960	0.1977	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	5.0000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	3.8550	1.9241	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4648	1.4648	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.90
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	645261
playerID	645261
playerName	Sandy Alcantara
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 13

All-history rows before 20260514: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.385	0.000	-1.385	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.815	1.100	-0.615	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.923	1.000	0.077	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	0.000	7.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.8750	0.1250	0.8750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	19.100	3.000	16.000	10.000	19.000	1.000	1.3966	1.3448	0.1552	0.8276	0.5172	0.9828	0.0517
season	0.20	13	25.000	3.000	18.000	13.000	25.000	1.000	1.0800	1.2400	0.1200	0.7200	0.5200	1.0000	0.0400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6340
predicted_ER	0.4790
predicted_ERA	2.4498
predicted_H	1.5530
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.6660
predicted_WHIP	1.2443

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6340	0.8397	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4790	0.2098	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4498	2.4498	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5530	0.6802	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1360	0.0596	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.6660	1.8537	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2443	1.2443	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.765	1.000	-0.765	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	1.647	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.588	0.000	1.412	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.859	2.000	0.241	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	0.059	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.3333	0.6667	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	6.000	2.7000	1.3000	0.3000	0.7000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	17	16.000	6.000	10.000	13.000	16.000	3.3750	1.4375	0.3750	0.6250	0.8125	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6230
predicted_ER	0.4470
predicted_ERA	3.1868
predicted_H	0.9800
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0500
predicted_WHIP	1.2701

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6230	0.2440	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4470	1.3918	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1868	3.1868	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9800	1.6005	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0990	0.6471	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0500	1.0196	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2701	1.2701	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

John King (667463) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.685	1.000	0.415	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.2500	0.7500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.7500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.0000	0.4444	0.1111	0.2222	0.2222	0.7778	0.1111
season	0.20	20	17.200	2.000	4.000	6.000	16.000	2.000	1.0189	0.5660	0.1132	0.2264	0.3396	0.9057	0.1132

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3740
predicted_ER	0.3910
predicted_ERA	3.1037
predicted_H	0.7890
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0080
predicted_WHIP	1.0253

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3740	0.1502	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3910	0.1571	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1037	3.1037	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7890	0.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1670	0.0671	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0080	1.6015	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0253	1.0253	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.02
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	667463
playerID	667463
playerName	John King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Anthony Bender (669622) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.671	1.000	0.329	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.6429
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	2.0769	0.8077	0.2308	0.5769	0.2308	1.1539
season	0.20	17	14.200	7.000	11.000	8.000	17.000	4.2955	1.2955	0.4773	0.7500	0.5454	1.1591

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_ER	0.3590
predicted_ERA	3.2266
predicted_H	0.7230
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9460
predicted_WHIP	1.0331

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3100	0.1187	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3590	0.1375	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2266	3.2266	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7230	0.8939	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0810	0.0310	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9460	0.3623	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0331	1.0331	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.30
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669622
playerID	669622
playerName	Anthony Bender
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Michael Petersen (656848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 14

All-history rows before 20260514: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.571	3.000	0.429	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.929	4.000	0.071	-3.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.971	0.200	-0.771	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.143	0.000	0.857	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	4.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	8.3077	1.8462	0.9231	1.6154	0.2308	1.1539	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	12.000	0.000	4.0909	1.0909	0.4546	1.0000	0.0909	1.0909	0.0000
season	0.20	14	15.000	8.000	13.000	5.000	16.000	1.000	4.8000	1.2000	0.5333	0.8667	0.3333	1.0667	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_ER	0.4320
predicted_ERA	4.9095
predicted_H	0.8350
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8040
predicted_WHIP	1.3691

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2480	0.0955	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4320	0.7812	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9095	4.9095	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8350	0.9364	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0680	0.0262	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8040	1.5393	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3691	1.3691	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	656848
playerID	656848
playerName	Michael Petersen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Home Team: MIN

Luke Keaschall (807712) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2252

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	0.805	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.683	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.683	4.000	0.317	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.025	0.250
predicted_BB	0.439	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	0.000	0.171	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.000	-0.062	0.250
predicted_R	0.439	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.298	0.000	0.202	0.500
predicted_SO	0.634	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.634	1.000	0.366	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.683	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.439	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.439	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.276	-
predicted_SO	0.634	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.464	-0.219
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.556	0.117
predicted_H	0.648	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.124	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.348	-0.000
predicted_R	0.374	-0.065
predicted_RBI	0.146	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.000
predicted_SO	0.647	0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.1250	0.3000	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	9.000	4.000	0.2667	0.4500	0.4000	0.2667	0.0000	0.0333	0.3000	0.1333
season	0.20	41	-	151.000	34.000	8.000	1.000	15.000	18.000	18.000	26.000	0.2252	0.3121	0.2980	0.2252	0.0066	0.0993	0.1192	0.1722

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3110
predicted_AVG	0.2019
predicted_BB	0.6380
predicted_H	0.6680
predicted_HBP	0.1240
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.3476
predicted_R	0.3280
predicted_RBI	0.1500
predicted_SLG	0.2763
predicted_SO	0.6570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.1850	0.1891	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6830	3.3110	3.4644	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2019	0.2019	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4390	0.6380	0.5559	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6680	0.6482	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1240	0.1240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0194	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3476	0.3478	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4390	0.3280	0.3738	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1500	0.1459	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2760	0.2763	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6340	0.6570	0.6475	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	807712
playerID	807712
playerName	Luke Keaschall
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Victor Caratini (605170) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 28

All-history rows before 20260514: 28

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1979

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2190

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.429	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	3.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.333	-0.198	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.679	1.000	-0.679	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.500	-0.296	-0.500
predicted_R	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.240	0.333	-0.240	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.786	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	0.000	1.214	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.036	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.429	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.214	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.207	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.462	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.000
predicted_BB	0.349	-0.008
predicted_H	0.559	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.063	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.000
predicted_R	0.223	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.272	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.207	0.000
predicted_SO	0.962	0.176

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	0.0882	0.1795	0.0882	0.0882	0.0000	0.0588	0.0882	0.3824
season	0.20	28	-	96.000	19.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	6.000	10.000	22.000	0.1979	0.2957	0.2396	0.1979	0.0104	0.1250	0.1042	0.2292

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0400
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4870
predicted_AVG	0.1693
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	0.5900
predicted_HBP	0.0630
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2538
predicted_R	0.2300
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.2071
predicted_SO	1.0990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0360	0.0400	0.0383	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4290	3.4870	3.4616	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1693	0.1692	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.3430	0.3491	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.5900	0.5594	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0630	0.0630	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0290	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2538	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2140	0.2300	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2890	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2070	0.2071	0.2071	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	1.0990	0.9621	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	605170
playerID	605170
playerName	Victor Caratini
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Royce Lewis (668904) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 27

All-history rows before 20260514: 27

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	2.000	0.667	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.500	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.333	0.500
predicted_BB	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.407	1.000	-0.407	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	2.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.556	0.000	1.444	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.500	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.333	0.231	0.167
predicted_R	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	0.000	0.630	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	1.556	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.240	1.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.000	0.950	1.250
predicted_SO	1.148	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.148	2.000	-1.148	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.156	-
predicted_BB	0.407	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.253	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.240	-
predicted_SO	1.148	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.024
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.375	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.000
predicted_BB	0.377	-0.030
predicted_H	0.487	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.037	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.000
predicted_R	0.422	0.052
predicted_RBI	0.338	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.240	0.000
predicted_SO	1.121	-0.027

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.144 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.1250	0.2500	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	0.1176	0.2051	0.1471	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.0882	0.3235
season	0.20	27	-	90.000	15.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	11.000	31.000	0.1667	0.2692	0.3000	0.1667	0.0333	0.1333	0.1222	0.3444

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4090
predicted_AVG	0.1561
predicted_BB	0.3520
predicted_H	0.5320
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2532
predicted_R	0.4630
predicted_RBI	0.3690
predicted_SLG	0.2403
predicted_SO	1.1000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1550	0.1354	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.4090	3.3752	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1560	0.1561	0.1561	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4070	0.3520	0.3765	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5320	0.4867	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0367	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2530	0.2532	0.2531	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.4630	0.4217	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3690	0.3383	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2400	0.2403	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1480	1.1000	1.1213	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668904
playerID	668904
playerName	Royce Lewis
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Brooks Lee (686797) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 38

All-history rows before 20260514: 38

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.684	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.684	4.000	0.316	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.947	0.000	-0.947	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.200	-0.316	-0.200
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	0.737	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.737	1.000	0.263	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.684	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.319	-
predicted_SO	0.737	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.740	0.056
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.315	0.026
predicted_H	0.865	0.095
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.037	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.478	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.419	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.319	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.713	-0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.2895	0.3415	0.3684	0.2895	0.0000	0.1842	0.0790	0.1842
season	0.20	38	-	140.000	36.000	5.000	5.000	22.000	19.000	11.000	28.000	0.2571	0.3158	0.4000	0.2571	0.0357	0.1571	0.0786	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1390
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7800
predicted_AVG	0.2469
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_H	0.9330
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.3103
predicted_R	0.4620
predicted_RBI	0.4550
predicted_SLG	0.3186
predicted_SO	0.6950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.1390	0.1361	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6840	3.7800	3.7397	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2469	0.2469	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.3330	0.3145	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9330	0.8646	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3103	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4620	0.4779	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4550	0.4193	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3190	0.3186	0.3188	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7370	0.6950	0.7126	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	686797
playerID	686797
playerName	Brooks Lee
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIN
teamID	17

James Outman (681546) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 7

All-history rows before 20260514: 7

System season_avg: 0.1600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1600

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	4.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.160	0.250	0.090	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.160	0.250	0.090	0.000
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.240	0.250	0.010	0.000
predicted_SO	1.429	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.429	1.000	0.571	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	1.429	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.627	0.056
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.063	0.063
predicted_H	0.731	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.000
predicted_R	0.350	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.216	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000
predicted_SO	1.207	-0.222

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333	0.2222	0.2222
last_10	0.35	7	-	25.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.1600	0.1600	0.2400	0.1600	0.4000
season	0.20	7	-	25.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.1600	0.1600	0.2400	0.1600	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2700
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7040
predicted_AVG	0.2273
predicted_BB	0.1510
predicted_H	0.8420
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2608
predicted_R	0.4380
predicted_RBI	0.2510
predicted_SLG	0.3565
predicted_SO	0.9000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2700	0.2793	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0029	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.7040	3.6268	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2273	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1510	0.0633	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.8420	0.7305	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0650	0.0563	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2608	0.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.4380	0.3498	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2510	0.2156	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3565	0.3562	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4290	0.9000	1.2071	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260501_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681546
playerID	681546
playerName	James Outman
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Byron Buxton (621439) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2604

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	4.225	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.225	4.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.500	-0.010	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.325	1.000	-0.325	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.100	2.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.375	2.000	0.625	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.600	-0.069	-0.350
predicted_R	0.825	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.825	2.000	0.175	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.850	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.575	2.000	1.425	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.783	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.580	2.000	0.420	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.175	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.175	1.000	0.825	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	4.225	-
predicted_AVG	0.305	-
predicted_BB	0.325	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.520	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.825	-
predicted_RBI	0.850	-
predicted_SLG	0.783	-
predicted_SO	1.175	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	0.056
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.011
predicted_AB	4.179	-0.045
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.000
predicted_BB	0.397	0.072
predicted_H	1.223	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.547	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.000
predicted_R	0.939	0.114
predicted_RBI	0.894	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.783	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.139	-0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.130

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.225

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	3.000	6.000	0.3810	0.4583	1.0476	0.3810	0.1905	0.2857	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	10.000	9.000	4.000	11.000	0.2619	0.3261	0.7381	0.2619	0.1429	0.2381	0.0952	0.2619
season	0.20	40	-	169.000	44.000	7.000	1.000	15.000	23.000	33.000	13.000	47.000	0.2604	0.3189	0.5799	0.2604	0.0888	0.1361	0.0769	0.2781

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2690
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.1480
predicted_AVG	0.3053
predicted_BB	0.4470
predicted_H	1.2660
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.5660
predicted_OBP	0.3731
predicted_R	1.0180
predicted_RBI	0.9250
predicted_SLG	0.7828
predicted_SO	1.1150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.2690	0.2306	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0060	0.0138	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2250	4.1480	4.1795	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3050	0.3053	0.3052	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3250	0.4470	0.3971	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.2660	1.2227	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.5200	0.5660	0.5472	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3731	0.3731	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8250	1.0180	0.9391	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8500	0.9250	0.8943	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7830	0.7828	0.7829	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1750	1.1150	1.1395	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	621439
playerID	621439
playerName	Byron Buxton
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Ryan Jeffers (680777) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 29

All-history rows before 20260514: 29

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3019

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.655	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.655	3.000	-0.655	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.333	-0.302	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.586	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.586	1.000	0.414	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.103	1.000	-1.103	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.207	1.000	-0.207	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.500	-0.150	-0.250
predicted_R	0.759	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.759	1.000	-0.759	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.862	2.000	-0.862	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.685	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.547	1.333	-0.547	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.793	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.793	1.000	1.207	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.655	-
predicted_AVG	0.331	-
predicted_BB	0.586	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.416	-
predicted_R	0.759	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.685	-
predicted_SO	0.793	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.356	0.149
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.740	0.085
predicted_AVG	0.331	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.584	-0.002
predicted_H	1.186	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.271	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.000
predicted_R	0.818	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.685	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.803	0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.317 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	0.3684	0.4783	0.8947	0.3684	0.1053	0.2105	0.2105	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	14.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	9.000	10.000	5.000	8.000	0.3590	0.4222	0.6923	0.3590	0.0769	0.2308	0.1282	0.2051
season	0.20	29	-	106.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	25.000	22.000	17.000	23.000	0.3019	0.4000	0.5472	0.3019	0.0566	0.2359	0.1604	0.2170

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4700
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.8040
predicted_AVG	0.3309
predicted_BB	0.5820
predicted_H	1.2590
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.2860
predicted_OBP	0.4164
predicted_R	0.8620
predicted_RBI	0.7750
predicted_SLG	0.6847
predicted_SO	0.8100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.4700	0.3564	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0080	0.0192	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6550	3.8040	3.7397	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3310	0.3309	0.3309	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5860	0.5820	0.5837	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.2590	1.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2860	0.2705	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4160	0.4164	0.4162	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7590	0.8620	0.8175	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.7750	0.7297	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6850	0.6847	0.6848	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7930	0.8100	0.8027	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680777
playerID	680777
playerName	Ryan Jeffers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Ryan Kreidler (668952) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 5

All-history rows before 20260514: 5

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.800	2.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.500	0.119	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.800	2.000	0.200	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.750	0.111	-0.250
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.514	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.714	1.000	-0.381	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.800	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.514	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.040	0.240
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.695	-0.105
predicted_H	0.633	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.202	0.032
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.424	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.502	0.082
predicted_SLG	0.514	0.000
predicted_SO	0.661	0.061

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.066

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.2143	0.3889	0.7143	0.2143	0.1429	0.2857	0.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.2143	0.3889	0.7143	0.2143	0.1429	0.2857	0.2857	0.2143
season	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.2143	0.3889	0.7143	0.2143	0.1429	0.2857	0.2857	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1920
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.4230
predicted_AVG	0.2328
predicted_BB	0.5270
predicted_H	0.7970
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.2520
predicted_OBP	0.3366
predicted_R	0.4620
predicted_RBI	0.6320
predicted_SLG	0.5143
predicted_SO	0.7570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1920	0.1969	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0031	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	3.4230	3.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2328	0.2329	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8000	0.5270	0.6946	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.7970	0.6330	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.2520	0.2016	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3366	0.3368	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4620	0.4239	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.6320	0.5018	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5140	0.5143	0.5141	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.7570	0.6606	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260418_CIN@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668952
playerID	668952
playerName	Ryan Kreidler
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Austin Martin (668885) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 27

All-history rows before 20260514: 27

System season_avg: 0.3300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3298

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.185	1.000	-0.185	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.481	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.481	5.000	0.519	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.332	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.330	0.400	-0.080	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.704	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.704	0.000	-0.704	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.148	2.000	-0.148	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.448	0.400	-0.198	-0.150
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.600	-0.165	-0.350
predicted_SO	0.593	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.593	1.000	0.407	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.481	-
predicted_AVG	0.332	-
predicted_BB	0.704	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.385	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	0.593	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.042
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.816	0.335
predicted_AVG	0.332	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	-0.204
predicted_H	1.216	0.176
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.000
predicted_R	0.422	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.245	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	0.563	-0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.319 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3636	0.3913	0.4545	0.3636	0.0000	0.0454	0.0454	0.0909
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	15.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.3571	0.4000	0.4048	0.3571	0.0000	0.0476	0.0714	0.0952
season	0.20	27	-	94.000	31.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	12.000	19.000	16.000	0.3298	0.4483	0.4149	0.3298	0.0106	0.0745	0.2021	0.1702

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2600
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	4.0750
predicted_AVG	0.3318
predicted_BB	0.3410
predicted_H	1.3520
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.3851
predicted_R	0.4050
predicted_RBI	0.2720
predicted_SLG	0.4220
predicted_SO	0.5390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1850	0.2600	0.2272	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4810	4.0750	3.8155	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3320	0.3318	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7040	0.3410	0.4996	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.3520	1.2157	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0323	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3850	0.3851	0.3851	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4050	0.4220	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2720	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4220	0.4220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5930	0.5390	0.5626	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.33

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668885
playerID	668885
playerName	Austin Martin
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Zebby Matthews (805673) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 0

All-history rows before 20260514: 0

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3940
predicted_ER	1.7040
predicted_ERA	4.1823
predicted_H	3.4430
predicted_HR	0.4720
predicted_IP	3.2000
predicted_SO	3.5120
predicted_WHIP	1.3194

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.3940	1.8621	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.7040	2.7052	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1823	4.1823	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	3.4430	4.6458	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4720	0.8799	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	3.2000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.5120	3.8890	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3194	1.3194	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	4
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	96

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Joe Ryan (657746) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 9

All-history rows before 20260514: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.444	3.000	-1.444	-3.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.889	1.000	-1.889	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	3.667	2.000	-3.667	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.911	6.000	-0.811	-1.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	5.000	5.000	-5.000	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.100	8.000	18.000	7.000	23.000	2.000	3.0857	1.0714	0.3429	0.7714	0.3000	0.9857	0.0857
last_10	0.35	9	44.200	17.000	33.000	13.000	45.000	3.000	3.4254	1.0299	0.3806	0.7388	0.2910	1.0075	0.0672
season	0.20	9	44.200	17.000	33.000	13.000	45.000	3.000	3.4254	1.0299	0.3806	0.7388	0.2910	1.0075	0.0672

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5110
predicted_ER	1.8320
predicted_ERA	3.5611
predicted_H	3.8120
predicted_HR	0.4470
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.5420
predicted_WHIP	1.1497

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.5110	0.7542	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.8320	0.9144	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5611	3.5611	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	3.8120	1.9027	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4470	0.2231	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.2000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	4.5420	2.2670	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1497	1.1497	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.43
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	107
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	657746
playerID	657746
playerName	Joe Ryan
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Justin Topa (623437) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 22

All-history rows before 20260514: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	1.000	-0.409	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.091	1.000	-1.091	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.668	1.200	1.432	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.682	2.000	1.318	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	9.000	10.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	16.2000	2.8000	1.8000	2.0000	0.8000	0.8000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	10.000	13.000	5.000	10.000	3.000	10.0000	2.0000	1.1111	1.4444	0.5556	1.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	22	18.200	14.000	24.000	9.000	15.000	4.000	6.7500	1.7679	0.7500	1.2857	0.4821	0.8036	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8750
predicted_ER	1.4850
predicted_ERA	7.5699
predicted_H	2.2020
predicted_HR	0.4530
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.6550
predicted_WHIP	1.7426

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8750	0.3564	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.4850	0.6049	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.5699	7.5699	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	2.2020	0.8970	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4530	0.1845	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.2000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.6550	1.8595	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7426	1.7426	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.13
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	35
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	623437
playerID	623437
playerName	Justin Topa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Andrew Morris (702193) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 9

All-history rows before 20260514: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	2.222	0.000	-1.222	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.667	1.000	-0.567	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.667	0.000	0.333	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	1.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	1.2273	0.9545	0.1364	0.6818	0.2727	0.6818	0.0000
last_10	0.35	9	17.100	9.000	20.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	4.6731	1.4423	0.5192	1.1539	0.2885	0.8654	0.0577
season	0.20	9	17.100	9.000	20.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	4.6731	1.4423	0.5192	1.1539	0.2885	0.8654	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4870
predicted_ER	0.5620
predicted_ERA	3.5164
predicted_H	1.3050
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2560
predicted_WHIP	1.2469

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4870	0.1947	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5620	0.8249	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5164	3.5164	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3050	1.1219	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1220	0.0488	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2560	1.7026	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2469	1.2469	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.67
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	702193
playerID	702193
playerName	Andrew Morris
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taylor Rogers (573124) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.176	0.000	-0.176	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.782	1.000	0.318	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.765	1.000	0.235	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	8.000	0.000	6.000	1.3500	1.2000	0.1500	1.2000	0.0000	0.9000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	13.000	3.000	8.000	2.3824	1.4118	0.2647	1.1471	0.2647	0.7059
season	0.20	16	16.100	5.000	18.000	5.000	13.000	2.7551	1.4082	0.3061	1.1020	0.3061	0.7959

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3670
predicted_ER	0.4650
predicted_ERA	3.3208
predicted_H	1.2950
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1350
predicted_WHIP	1.3180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3670	0.7508	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4650	0.1831	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3208	3.3208	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2950	1.1161	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0980	0.0386	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1350	1.0532	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3180	1.3180	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.41
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	573124
playerID	573124
playerName	Taylor Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luis García (472610) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.125	0.000	-1.125	0.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.250	1.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	2.000	0.100	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.125	1.000	1.875	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	3.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.7647	1.2353	0.5294	0.8823	0.3529	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	8.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	6.5455	1.3636	0.7273	1.0909	0.2727	0.1818	0.1818
season	0.20	13	14.000	10.000	18.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	6.4286	1.5714	0.7143	1.2857	0.2857	0.3571	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3560
predicted_ER	0.5260
predicted_ERA	4.7320
predicted_H	0.9740
predicted_HR	0.1720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6920
predicted_WHIP	1.3294

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3560	0.1347	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5260	0.1991	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7320	4.7320	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.9740	2.2332	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1720	0.0651	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6920	1.5050	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3294	1.3294	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	472610
playerID	472610
playerName	Luis García
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	0.647	3.000	2.353	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.529	0.000	1.471	2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.953	1.200	-0.753	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	-0.941	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	2.5714	1.4286	0.2857	0.7143	0.7143	0.5714
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	6.000	10.000	7.000	11.000	4.7647	1.5000	0.5294	0.8823	0.6177	0.9706
season	0.20	17	19.000	9.000	17.000	11.000	16.000	4.2632	1.4737	0.4737	0.8947	0.5789	0.8421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4350
predicted_ER	0.3850
predicted_ERA	3.9651
predicted_H	0.7720
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7650
predicted_WHIP	1.3810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.4350	1.9504	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3850	1.3391	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9651	3.9651	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7720	0.9067	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0640	0.0262	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7650	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3810	1.3810	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

20260514_PHI@BOS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.539312, "home_win_probability": 0.539312, "away_win_probability": 0.460688, "predicted_score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 BOS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 BOS", "confidence": 0.539312, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	PHI 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	0.539	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	PHI 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away PHI	7-3	0.700	4.90	3.40	15	1L	average	strong
Home BOS	5-5	0.500	3.40	3.10	3	1W	cold	strong

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-13	PHI @ BOS	1 - 3	BOS	2	close
2026-05-12	PHI @ BOS	2 - 1	PHI	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target PHI	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target BOS	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized PHI	35	8	3	1	3	2	9
Player finalized BOS	33	8	1	0	2	2	9
Player model fractional PHI	33.26	7.38	4.17	1.36	3.90	2.38	7.57
Player model fractional BOS	32.52	6.73	3.90	0.96	3.15	2.72	8.47
Simulation box PHI	37	10	3	1	3	2	13
Simulation box BOS	32	6	4	2	4	3	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away PHI	Starter	Jesús Luzardo	4.20	2	4	3	3	5.22	1.43	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Jhoan Duran	1.10	0	0	2	0	3.47	1.30	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Brad Keller	1	0	2	0	0	3.98	1.42	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	José Alvarado	1	1	1	0	0	3.20	1.37	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Orion Kerkering	0.20	1	0	1	0	3.33	1.17	True
Home BOS	Starter	Ranger Suarez	4.10	1	7	5	2	2.65	0.99	True
Home BOS	Middle Reliever	Aroldis Chapman	1.10	0	2	1	0	2.76	1.16	True
Home BOS	Middle Reliever	Justin Slaten	1.10	0	2	1	0	3.45	1.25	True
Home BOS	Middle Reliever	Garrett Whitlock	1	2	1	3	0	3.87	1.24	True
Home BOS	Middle Reliever	Tyler Samaniego	1	0	1	0	0	2.62	1.18	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: PHI

Kyle Schwarber (656941) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 43

All-history rows before 20260514: 43

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2264

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1130

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	0.837	1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.698	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.698	2.000	1.302	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.374	0.600
predicted_BB	0.674	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.674	2.000	-0.674	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.837	0.000	2.163	3.000
predicted_HR	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.500	0.241	0.100
predicted_R	0.674	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.674	0.000	0.326	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.651	0.000	0.349	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.793	0.800	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.604	0.000	0.196	0.800
predicted_SO	1.395	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.395	1.000	0.605	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.698	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.674	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.550	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.674	-
predicted_RBI	0.810	-
predicted_SLG	0.793	-
predicted_SO	1.395	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.830	0.132
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.595	-0.080
predicted_H	0.999	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.609	0.059
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.000
predicted_R	0.756	0.082
predicted_RBI	0.897	0.087
predicted_SLG	0.793	0.000
predicted_SO	1.364	-0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.159

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.3000	0.3913	1.0500	0.3000	0.2500	0.3500	0.1500	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	8.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	0.2750	0.3556	0.7500	0.2750	0.1500	0.2000	0.1250	0.3000
season	0.20	43	-	159.000	36.000	7.000	1.000	17.000	28.000	29.000	29.000	60.000	0.2264	0.3594	0.6038	0.2264	0.1069	0.1761	0.1824	0.3774

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.9200
predicted_AVG	0.2721
predicted_BB	0.5400
predicted_H	1.0670
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.6490
predicted_OBP	0.3634
predicted_R	0.8120
predicted_RBI	0.9570
predicted_SLG	0.7934
predicted_SO	1.3420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.0840	0.1162	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0060	0.0129	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6980	3.9200	3.8296	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2721	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6740	0.5400	0.5945	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0670	0.9990	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.5500	0.6490	0.6087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3634	0.3632	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6740	0.8120	0.7558	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8100	0.9570	0.8972	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7930	0.7934	0.7932	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3950	1.3420	1.3636	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	656941
playerID	656941
playerName	Kyle Schwarber
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PHI
teamID	21

Felix Reyes (694025) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 9

All-history rows before 20260514: 9

System season_avg: 0.1330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	2.000	0.667	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.168	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.199	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_SO	0.778	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	0.000	1.222	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.168	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.199	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.289	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.028
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.390	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.168	0.000
predicted_BB	0.057	0.057
predicted_H	0.508	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.199	-0.000
predicted_R	0.243	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.291	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.289	0.000
predicted_SO	0.832	0.054

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.150 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.0667	0.0667	0.1333	0.0667	0.0000	0.0667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	9	-	30.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1333	0.1333	0.2667	0.1333	0.0333	0.0667	0.2333
season	0.20	9	-	30.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1333	0.1333	0.2667	0.1333	0.0333	0.0667	0.2333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1750
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.4620
predicted_AVG	0.1681
predicted_BB	0.1290
predicted_H	0.5820
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_OBP	0.1988
predicted_R	0.2710
predicted_RBI	0.3300
predicted_SLG	0.2894
predicted_SO	0.9010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1750	0.1391	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.4620	3.3896	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1680	0.1681	0.1680	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1290	0.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5820	0.5079	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0770	0.0675	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1990	0.1988	0.1989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.2710	0.2435	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3300	0.2907	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2890	0.2894	0.2892	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.9010	0.8320	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.133

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	694025
playerID	694025
playerName	Felix Reyes
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 42

All-history rows before 20260514: 42

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2662

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.000	-0.016	0.250
predicted_BB	0.548	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	0.000	0.024	1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.000	0.040	0.400
predicted_R	0.595	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.595	0.000	0.405	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.484	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.532	0.000	-0.282	0.250
predicted_SO	0.714	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	2.000	1.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.548	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.595	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.484	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-0.056
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.606	-0.061
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.531	-0.017
predicted_H	0.803	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.249	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.331	-0.000
predicted_R	0.577	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.377	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.484	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.792	0.078

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	5.000	7.000	0.2778	0.3659	0.6667	0.2778	0.1111	0.1389	0.1389	0.1944
season	0.20	42	-	154.000	41.000	9.000	1.000	10.000	24.000	25.000	23.000	30.000	0.2662	0.3596	0.5325	0.2662	0.0649	0.1558	0.1494	0.1948

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1190
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5630
predicted_AVG	0.2319
predicted_BB	0.5200
predicted_H	0.8260
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2550
predicted_OBP	0.3307
predicted_R	0.5650
predicted_RBI	0.3880
predicted_SLG	0.4836
predicted_SO	0.8460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.1190	0.1580	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.5630	3.6057	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2319	0.2319	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5480	0.5200	0.5315	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8260	0.8030	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2550	0.2488	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3307	0.3308	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5950	0.5650	0.5773	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3880	0.3765	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4840	0.4836	0.4838	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.8460	0.7918	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Alec Bohm (664761) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 38

All-history rows before 20260514: 38

System season_avg: 0.1870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1871

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.658	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.658	4.000	-0.658	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.187	0.250	0.146	0.083
predicted_BB	0.289	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	0.000	0.711	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.684	1.000	0.316	0.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.252	0.250	0.248	0.250
predicted_R	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.564	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.281	0.250	0.053	0.083
predicted_SO	0.579	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.579	1.000	0.421	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.658	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.263	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.564	-
predicted_SO	0.579	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.527	-0.131
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.019
predicted_H	0.981	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.238	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.386	0.123
predicted_RBI	0.728	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.564	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.467	-0.112

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.3750	0.4118	0.8125	0.3750	0.1250	0.3125	0.0625	0.0625
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2941	0.3514	0.5000	0.2941	0.0588	0.2059	0.0882	0.0882
season	0.20	38	-	139.000	26.000	4.000	3.000	20.000	10.000	11.000	22.000	0.1871	0.2516	0.2806	0.1870	0.0216	0.1439	0.0791	0.1583

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4320
predicted_AVG	0.2985
predicted_BB	0.2570
predicted_H	1.0250
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.2510
predicted_OBP	0.3500
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.7630
predicted_SLG	0.5639
predicted_SO	0.3860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1530	0.1329	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6580	3.4320	3.5266	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2985	0.2983	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.2570	0.2704	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.0250	0.9811	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2510	0.2380	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3500	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2630	0.4750	0.3863	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7630	0.7283	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5640	0.5639	0.5639	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5790	0.3860	0.4668	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.187

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	664761
playerID	664761
playerName	Alec Bohm
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Adolis García (666969) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.732	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.732	4.000	1.268	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	-0.022	0.200
predicted_BB	0.317	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	0.000	0.171	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.215	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.000	-0.088	0.200
predicted_R	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.259	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	-0.133	0.200
predicted_SO	1.122	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.122	3.000	-0.122	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.732	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.317	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.215	-
predicted_R	0.341	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.259	-
predicted_SO	1.122	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	0.007
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.809	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.000
predicted_BB	0.268	-0.049
predicted_H	0.607	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.215	-0.000
predicted_R	0.440	0.099
predicted_RBI	0.174	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.259	0.000
predicted_SO	1.234	0.112

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.1000	0.1429	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	13.000	0.1842	0.2195	0.2895	0.1842	0.0263	0.0526	0.0526	0.3421
season	0.20	41	-	153.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	13.000	46.000	0.2222	0.2882	0.3333	0.2222	0.0196	0.0784	0.0850	0.3006

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.8640
predicted_AVG	0.1674
predicted_BB	0.2340
predicted_H	0.6470
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.2147
predicted_R	0.5090
predicted_RBI	0.1840
predicted_SLG	0.2593
predicted_SO	1.3130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.1570	0.1525	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7320	3.8640	3.8094	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1674	0.1672	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3170	0.2340	0.2683	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6470	0.6069	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0620	0.0570	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2150	0.2147	0.2148	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3410	0.5090	0.4396	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1840	0.1741	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2590	0.2593	0.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1220	1.3130	1.2340	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	666969
playerID	666969
playerName	Adolis García
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Edmundo Sosa (624641) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2414

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	0.824	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.412	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.412	3.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.333	0.009	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.254	0.333	-0.004	-0.083
predicted_R	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.345	0.333	0.155	0.167
predicted_SO	0.706	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.706	1.000	1.294	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.412	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.059	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.235	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.313	-
predicted_SO	0.706	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.505	0.093
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.079	0.020
predicted_H	0.767	0.107
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.000
predicted_R	0.268	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.455	0.065
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000
predicted_SO	0.702	-0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.1667	0.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2647	0.2647	0.2941	0.2647	0.0000	0.1471	0.0000	0.1765
season	0.20	17	-	58.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	12.000	0.2414	0.2542	0.3448	0.2414	0.0172	0.1379	0.0172	0.2069

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5950
predicted_AVG	0.2419
predicted_BB	0.0990
predicted_H	0.8700
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.2643
predicted_R	0.3000
predicted_RBI	0.5180
predicted_SLG	0.3132
predicted_SO	0.6980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1060	0.1405	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4120	3.5950	3.5049	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2419	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0590	0.0990	0.0793	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8700	0.7666	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0436	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2643	0.2642	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2350	0.3000	0.2680	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.5180	0.4550	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3130	0.3132	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7060	0.6980	0.7019	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	624641
playerID	624641
playerName	Edmundo Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brandon Marsh (669016) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 36

All-history rows before 20260514: 36

System season_avg: 0.3430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3431

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.806	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.806	3.000	0.194	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.382	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.343	0.000	0.157	0.500
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.306	0.000	0.694	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.419	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.000	0.133	0.500
predicted_R	0.611	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.611	0.000	0.389	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	0.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.455	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.489	0.000	0.761	1.250
predicted_SO	0.722	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.806	-
predicted_AVG	0.382	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.419	-
predicted_R	0.611	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.455	-
predicted_SO	0.722	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-0.048
predicted_3B	0.032	0.004
predicted_AB	3.716	-0.090
predicted_AVG	0.382	0.000
predicted_BB	0.254	0.087
predicted_H	1.322	0.102
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.419	0.000
predicted_R	0.722	0.111
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.000
predicted_SO	0.625	-0.097

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.347 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.806

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.4118	0.4500	0.4118	0.4118	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	17.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	5.000	0.4474	0.4762	0.5263	0.4474	0.0000	0.1053	0.0790	0.1316
season	0.20	36	-	137.000	47.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	21.000	22.000	6.000	26.000	0.3431	0.3673	0.4891	0.3431	0.0292	0.1533	0.0438	0.1898

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0350
predicted_AB	3.6510
predicted_AVG	0.3823
predicted_BB	0.3170
predicted_H	1.3960
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.4194
predicted_R	0.8030
predicted_RBI	0.4420
predicted_SLG	0.4550
predicted_SO	0.5550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0840	0.1190	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0350	0.0320	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8060	3.6510	3.7164	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3820	0.3823	0.3822	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.3170	0.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.3960	1.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0340	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4190	0.4194	0.4192	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6110	0.8030	0.7221	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4420	0.4201	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4550	0.4550	0.4550	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7220	0.5550	0.6254	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.343

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	669016
playerID	669016
playerName	Brandon Marsh
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Trea Turner (607208) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2339

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.171	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.171	4.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.293	0.000	0.707	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	0.000	-0.976	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.220	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.000	-0.083	0.200
predicted_R	0.585	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.585	0.000	-0.585	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.257	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.345	0.000	-0.345	0.000
predicted_SO	0.927	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.927	1.000	0.073	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.171	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.293	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.220	-
predicted_R	0.585	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.257	-
predicted_SO	0.927	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.188	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.176	-0.117
predicted_H	0.818	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.220	-0.000
predicted_R	0.459	-0.126
predicted_RBI	0.254	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.951	0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.171

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	10.000	0.1818	0.1818	0.2273	0.1818	0.0000	0.0454	0.0000	0.2273
season	0.20	41	-	171.000	40.000	7.000	4.000	13.000	24.000	12.000	38.000	0.2339	0.2826	0.3450	0.2339	0.0234	0.0760	0.0702	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1990
predicted_AVG	0.2028
predicted_BB	0.0950
predicted_H	0.8520
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.2198
predicted_R	0.3710
predicted_RBI	0.2630
predicted_SLG	0.2567
predicted_SO	0.9670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1150	0.1379	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1710	4.1990	4.1875	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2028	0.2029	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2930	0.0950	0.1760	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8520	0.8184	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0335	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2200	0.2198	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5850	0.3710	0.4586	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2630	0.2536	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2570	0.2567	0.2568	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9270	0.9670	0.9506	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	607208
playerID	607208
playerName	Trea Turner
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

J.T. Realmuto (592663) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 25

All-history rows before 20260514: 25

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2273

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.520	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.520	3.000	0.480	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.023	0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.192	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.000	-0.031	0.250
predicted_R	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.248	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.307	0.000	-0.057	0.250
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.520	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.192	-
predicted_R	0.320	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.248	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.688	0.168
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.000
predicted_BB	0.146	-0.054
predicted_H	0.576	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.192	-0.000
predicted_R	0.319	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.303	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.248	0.000
predicted_SO	0.605	0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.156 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.1053
season	0.20	25	-	88.000	20.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	8.000	5.000	15.000	0.2273	0.2812	0.3068	0.2273	0.0114	0.0909	0.0568	0.1704

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8250
predicted_AVG	0.1691
predicted_BB	0.1010
predicted_H	0.6470
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.1919
predicted_R	0.3180
predicted_RBI	0.3390
predicted_SLG	0.2482
predicted_SO	0.6090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.1890	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5200	3.8250	3.6876	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1691	0.1691	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1010	0.1456	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6470	0.5763	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0333	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1920	0.1919	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3200	0.3180	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3390	0.3034	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2480	0.2482	0.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6090	0.6049	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	592663
playerID	592663
playerName	J.T. Realmuto
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jesús Luzardo (666200) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	3.000	1.500	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	3.625	6.000	-1.625	-4.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	6.125	6.000	-3.125	-3.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.225	3.000	-1.025	1.200
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	7.125	6.000	-3.125	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.100	17.000	33.000	8.000	31.000	3.000	5.8101	1.5570	0.6456	1.2532	0.3038	1.1772	0.1139
last_10	0.35	8	43.200	29.000	49.000	12.000	57.000	5.000	5.9771	1.3969	0.6641	1.1221	0.2748	1.3053	0.1145
season	0.20	8	43.200	29.000	49.000	12.000	57.000	5.000	5.9771	1.3969	0.6641	1.1221	0.2748	1.3053	0.1145

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6630
predicted_ER	2.9430
predicted_ERA	5.2167
predicted_H	5.6190
predicted_HR	0.6080
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.6750
predicted_WHIP	1.4343

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.6630	2.3482	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.9430	2.4597	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2167	5.2167	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.6190	4.2768	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6080	0.2964	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.6750	4.8166	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4343	1.4343	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	4
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	98

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	5.98
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	666200
playerID	666200
playerName	Jesús Luzardo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jhoan Duran (661395) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 12

All-history rows before 20260514: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	1.000	0.250	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	2.000	-1.333	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	1.8000	1.4000	0.2000	0.6000	0.8000	1.8000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	15.000	1.8000	1.1000	0.2000	0.7000	0.4000	1.5000
season	0.20	11	10.200	2.000	8.000	4.000	16.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	1.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5410
predicted_ER	0.4750
predicted_ERA	3.4666
predicted_H	1.0580
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4310
predicted_WHIP	1.2958

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5410	0.1911	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4750	0.1678	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4666	3.4666	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0580	1.6673	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1110	0.6860	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4310	0.5055	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2958	1.2958	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	661395
playerID	661395
playerName	Jhoan Duran
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.889	0.000	-0.889	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.167	3.000	0.833	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	3.6000	2.0000	0.4000	1.4000	0.6000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	8.000	4.000	13.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.8000	0.4000	1.3000	0.1000
season	0.20	18	17.200	8.000	16.000	6.000	21.000	2.000	4.0755	1.2453	0.4528	0.9057	0.3396	1.1887	0.1132

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4210
predicted_ER	0.4420
predicted_ERA	3.9814
predicted_H	1.0020
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1450
predicted_WHIP	1.4223

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4210	0.1691	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4420	0.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9814	3.9814	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0020	0.4025	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0398	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1450	1.6565	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4223	1.4223	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

José Alvarado (621237) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 19

All-history rows before 20260514: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.421	0.000	0.579	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.553	0.200	0.447	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	1.0909	0.0000	0.8182	0.2727	1.9091
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	1.000	10.000	4.000	11.000	1.1250	1.7500	0.1250	1.2500	0.5000	1.3750
season	0.20	19	14.000	8.000	19.000	7.000	19.000	5.1429	1.8571	0.5714	1.3571	0.5000	1.3571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_ER	0.3130
predicted_ERA	3.1962
predicted_H	0.8710
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0500
predicted_WHIP	1.3749

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3400	0.1287	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3130	0.7400	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1962	3.1962	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8710	0.3296	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0276	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0500	1.0189	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3749	1.3749	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.14
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	621237
playerID	621237
playerName	José Alvarado
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Orion Kerkering (689147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.235	1.000	0.765	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.706	2.000	0.294	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.806	0.100	-0.606	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.647	0.000	-0.647	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	1.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.8182	0.0000	0.5454	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.0385	0.9231	0.1154	0.6923	0.2308	0.8077	0.1154
season	0.20	17	15.100	4.000	12.000	6.000	11.000	2.000	2.3478	1.1739	0.2609	0.7826	0.3913	0.7174	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_ER	0.2730
predicted_ERA	3.3327
predicted_H	0.6430
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6250
predicted_WHIP	1.1705

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2180	0.0845	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2730	0.7183	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3327	3.3327	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6430	0.8617	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1120	0.6560	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6250	0.2421	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1705	1.1705	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.35
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	689147
playerID	689147
playerName	Orion Kerkering
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Home Team: BOS

Caleb Durbin (702332) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 38

All-history rows before 20260514: 38

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.474	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.474	3.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.137	0.250	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.083	0.250
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.390	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.579	0.000	0.421	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.196	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.247	0.000	0.003	0.250
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.342	0.000	0.658	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.184	0.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.242	0.000	0.008	0.250
predicted_SO	0.605	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.605	3.000	-0.605	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.474	-
predicted_AVG	0.137	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	0.390	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.196	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.184	-
predicted_SO	0.605	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.058
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.391	-0.083
predicted_AVG	0.137	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.190	-0.099
predicted_H	0.428	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.129	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.196	0.000
predicted_R	0.265	-0.103
predicted_RBI	0.275	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.184	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.740	0.135

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.123 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.0667	0.1250	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0667	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1471	0.1944	0.1765	0.1471	0.0000	0.0882	0.0294	0.2059
season	0.20	38	-	132.000	22.000	7.000	1.000	13.000	14.000	11.000	23.000	0.1667	0.2466	0.2424	0.1667	0.0076	0.0985	0.0833	0.1742

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3310
predicted_AVG	0.1368
predicted_BB	0.1170
predicted_H	0.4560
predicted_HBP	0.1290
predicted_HR	0.0220
predicted_OBP	0.1961
predicted_R	0.1900
predicted_RBI	0.2930
predicted_SLG	0.1836
predicted_SO	0.8380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.0840	0.1262	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4740	3.3310	3.3914	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1370	0.1368	0.1369	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.1170	0.1896	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3900	0.4560	0.4281	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1290	0.1290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0220	0.0212	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1960	0.1961	0.1961	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.1900	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2930	0.2749	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1840	0.1836	0.1838	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6050	0.8380	0.7397	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	702332
playerID	702332
playerName	Caleb Durbin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Andruw Monasterio (655316) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 12

All-history rows before 20260514: 12

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2174

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	5.000	0.167	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.200	-0.217	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.200	-0.294	-0.200
predicted_R	0.583	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.583	1.000	-0.583	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	1.000	-0.583	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.325	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.348	0.200	-0.348	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.750	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	2.000	1.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.325	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.812	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.339	-0.078
predicted_H	0.796	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.000
predicted_R	0.542	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.491	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.325	0.000
predicted_SO	0.772	0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4000	0.2500	0.0250	0.1750	0.0500	0.1750
season	0.20	12	-	46.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	9.000	0.2174	0.2941	0.3478	0.2174	0.0217	0.1522	0.1087	0.1956

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.7910
predicted_AVG	0.2200
predicted_BB	0.2580
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_OBP	0.2727
predicted_R	0.5010
predicted_RBI	0.5120
predicted_SLG	0.3252
predicted_SO	0.7950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1600	0.2056	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.7910	3.8123	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2200	0.2200	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.2580	0.3385	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8340	0.7965	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0760	0.0730	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2727	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.5010	0.5425	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5120	0.4907	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3250	0.3252	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7950	0.7722	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	655316
playerID	655316
playerName	Andruw Monasterio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BOS
teamID	4

Trevor Story (596115) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2112

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.025	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.025	3.000	-1.025	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.667	0.455	0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.850	2.000	1.150	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	1.000	0.925	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.667	0.500	0.083
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.475	1.000	1.525	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.410	1.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.311	1.667	1.356	0.000
predicted_SO	1.375	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.375	0.000	-1.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.025	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.410	-
predicted_SO	1.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.888	-0.137
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.191	-0.009
predicted_H	0.923	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.473	0.073
predicted_RBI	0.271	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.410	0.000
predicted_SO	1.406	0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.025

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	15.000	0.2564	0.2927	0.3590	0.2564	0.0256	0.0513	0.0256	0.3846
season	0.20	40	-	161.000	34.000	7.000	3.000	19.000	16.000	8.000	55.000	0.2112	0.2500	0.3106	0.2112	0.0186	0.1180	0.0497	0.3416

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7910
predicted_AVG	0.2550
predicted_BB	0.1840
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.2961
predicted_R	0.5250
predicted_RBI	0.2850
predicted_SLG	0.4100
predicted_SO	1.4280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.1640	0.1685	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0250	3.7910	3.8876	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2550	0.2550	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1840	0.1906	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9670	0.9228	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1400	0.1317	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2961	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.5250	0.4734	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2850	0.2706	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4100	0.4100	0.4100	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3750	1.4280	1.4061	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	596115
playerID	596115
playerName	Trevor Story
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BOS
teamID	4

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.3050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3052

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.756	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.756	4.000	0.244	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.305	0.750	-0.055	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.488	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.146	3.000	-0.146	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.397	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.750	-0.133	-0.500
predicted_R	0.488	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.488	1.000	-0.488	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.474	0.750	-0.224	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.805	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.805	0.000	0.195	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.756	-
predicted_AVG	0.323	-
predicted_BB	0.488	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.397	-
predicted_R	0.488	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.491	-
predicted_SO	0.805	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-0.058
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.652	-0.104
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.000
predicted_BB	0.506	0.018
predicted_H	1.133	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.176	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.397	-0.000
predicted_R	0.470	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.436	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.000
predicted_SO	0.765	-0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.3529	0.4000	0.5294	0.3529	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	8.000	11.000	0.3333	0.4444	0.5000	0.3333	0.0556	0.1389	0.2222	0.3056
season	0.20	41	-	154.000	47.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	20.000	20.000	33.000	0.3052	0.3829	0.4740	0.3052	0.0390	0.1169	0.1299	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0480
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5790
predicted_AVG	0.3230
predicted_BB	0.5180
predicted_H	1.1560
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.3965
predicted_R	0.4580
predicted_RBI	0.4470
predicted_SLG	0.4914
predicted_SO	0.7370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.0480	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7560	3.5790	3.6519	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3230	0.3230	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4880	0.5180	0.5056	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.1560	1.1329	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1810	0.1765	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3970	0.3965	0.3967	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4880	0.4580	0.4704	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4470	0.4359	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4910	0.4914	0.4912	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8050	0.7370	0.7650	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.305

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 35

All-history rows before 20260514: 35

System season_avg: 0.1860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1862

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.143	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.143	4.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.186	0.000	0.064	0.250
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.771	0.000	0.229	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	0.886	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.221	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.244	0.000	0.156	0.400
predicted_R	0.543	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.543	0.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	0.486	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.297	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.310	0.000	0.690	1.000
predicted_SO	1.143	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	2.000	0.857	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.221	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.297	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.150	0.007
predicted_AVG	0.186	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.226	-0.060
predicted_H	0.743	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.221	-0.000
predicted_R	0.424	-0.119
predicted_RBI	0.269	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.297	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.126	-0.017

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.143

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.1905	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	14.000	0.2093	0.2609	0.3721	0.2093	0.0465	0.0930	0.0698	0.3256
season	0.20	35	-	145.000	27.000	6.000	4.000	18.000	19.000	10.000	40.000	0.1862	0.2436	0.3103	0.1862	0.0276	0.1241	0.0690	0.2759

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1550
predicted_AVG	0.1859
predicted_BB	0.1830
predicted_H	0.7730
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.2206
predicted_R	0.3390
predicted_RBI	0.2830
predicted_SLG	0.2968
predicted_SO	1.1140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1630	0.1663	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1430	4.1550	4.1500	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1859	0.1859	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.1830	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7730	0.7425	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0970	0.0941	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2210	0.2206	0.2208	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.3390	0.4243	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2830	0.2692	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2970	0.2968	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.1140	1.1261	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.186

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Carlos Narváez (665966) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 25

All-history rows before 20260514: 25

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2125

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	3.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.333	-0.212	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.680	1.000	-0.680	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.333	-0.276	-0.333
predicted_R	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.325	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.333	-0.325	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.920	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.920	0.000	1.080	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.360	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.325	-
predicted_SO	0.920	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.021
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.182	-0.018
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.267	0.067
predicted_H	0.542	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.225	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.408	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.158	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.325	0.000
predicted_SO	0.851	-0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1429	0.3333	0.2143	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.4000	0.1667	0.0667	0.0667	0.1000	0.3000
season	0.20	25	-	80.000	17.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	5.000	23.000	0.2125	0.2759	0.3250	0.2125	0.0250	0.0375	0.0625	0.2875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1670
predicted_AVG	0.1853
predicted_BB	0.3240
predicted_H	0.5870
predicted_HBP	0.2250
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_OBP	0.3052
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.1730
predicted_SLG	0.3252
predicted_SO	0.7930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1200	0.1590	0.1411	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.1670	3.1821	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1853	0.1852	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.3240	0.2672	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.5870	0.5425	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2250	0.2250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0930	0.0870	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3052	0.3051	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3600	0.4480	0.4077	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1730	0.1579	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3250	0.3252	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9200	0.7930	0.8512	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	665966
playerID	665966
playerName	Carlos Narváez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (643396) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 12

All-history rows before 20260514: 12

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1944

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.286	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.286	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	0.033
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.204	0.204
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.162	-0.005
predicted_H	0.634	0.104
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.039	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.256	-0.000
predicted_R	0.430	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.301	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.286	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.571	0.071

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.2188	0.2424	0.2188	0.2188	0.0625	0.0312	0.1250
season	0.20	12	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.1944	0.2368	0.1944	0.1944	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0710
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.4410
predicted_AVG	0.2193
predicted_BB	0.1560
predicted_H	0.7550
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.2557
predicted_R	0.4450
predicted_RBI	0.3600
predicted_SLG	0.2856
predicted_SO	0.6530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0710	0.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0028	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.4410	3.2044	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2193	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1560	0.1619	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.7550	0.6343	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0490	0.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2557	0.2559	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.4450	0.4300	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3600	0.3010	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2860	0.2856	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6530	0.5709	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	643396
playerID	643396
playerName	Isiah Kiner-Falefa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Willson Contreras (575929) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 39

All-history rows before 20260514: 39

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2518

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.564	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.564	4.000	0.436	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	-0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.513	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.897	0.000	-0.897	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_R	0.487	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.487	0.000	-0.487	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.590	0.000	-0.590	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.453	0.000	-0.453	0.000
predicted_SO	1.231	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.231	1.000	-1.231	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.564	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.513	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.487	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	1.231	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.085	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.554	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.576	0.063
predicted_H	0.674	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.064	-
predicted_HR	0.182	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.453	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.421	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.235	0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	0.1176	0.2727	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3556	0.4444	0.2500	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667	0.3333
season	0.20	39	-	139.000	35.000	4.000	8.000	23.000	19.000	20.000	48.000	0.2518	0.3669	0.4532	0.2518	0.0575	0.1655	0.1439	0.3453

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0720
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5470
predicted_AVG	0.1988
predicted_BB	0.6210
predicted_H	0.7050
predicted_HBP	0.0640
predicted_HR	0.1900
predicted_OBP	0.3183
predicted_R	0.4290
predicted_RBI	0.4430
predicted_SLG	0.3809
predicted_SO	1.2380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.0720	0.0848	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5640	3.5470	3.5540	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1988	0.1989	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5130	0.6210	0.5763	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7050	0.6740	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0640	0.0640	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1900	0.1817	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3183	0.3182	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4870	0.4290	0.4530	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4430	0.4211	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3809	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2310	1.2380	1.2351	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	2
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	575929
playerID	575929
playerName	Willson Contreras
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Ceddanne Rafaela (678882) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 36

All-history rows before 20260514: 36

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2672

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.639	1.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.639	4.000	-2.639	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	1.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.250	0.733	0.750
predicted_BB	0.222	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	1.778	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.972	1.000	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	1.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.667	0.750
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.405	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.250	0.603	0.750
predicted_SO	0.944	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.944	2.000	-0.944	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.639	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.405	-
predicted_SO	0.944	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.031	-0.025
predicted_AB	3.690	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.264	0.042
predicted_H	0.861	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.056	-
predicted_HR	0.156	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.432	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.531	0.061
predicted_SLG	0.405	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.002	0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	1.000	-3.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.1667	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	0.2821	0.3333	0.4359	0.2821	0.0513	0.1795	0.0513	0.2564
season	0.20	36	-	131.000	35.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	8.000	34.000	0.2672	0.3333	0.3969	0.2672	0.0229	0.1145	0.0611	0.2595

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0490
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.7270
predicted_AVG	0.2507
predicted_BB	0.2950
predicted_H	0.9350
predicted_HBP	0.0560
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_OBP	0.3161
predicted_R	0.4240
predicted_RBI	0.5760
predicted_SLG	0.4048
predicted_SO	1.0440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0490	0.0752	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0120	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6390	3.7270	3.6898	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2507	0.2508	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2950	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9350	0.8610	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0560	0.0560	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1670	0.1556	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3161	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4240	0.4325	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5760	0.5312	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4050	0.4048	0.4049	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9440	1.0440	1.0017	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	1
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	678882
playerID	678882
playerName	Ceddanne Rafaela
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Ranger Suarez (624133) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 7

All-history rows before 20260514: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.429	1.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.714	0.000	-0.714	1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	3.857	3.000	1.143	2.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.471	4.000	-1.371	0.100
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	4.571	3.000	2.429	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.200	4.000	14.000	7.000	27.000	1.000	1.1739	0.6848	0.1304	0.4565	0.2283	0.8804	0.0326
last_10	0.35	7	39.000	12.000	27.000	10.000	32.000	3.000	2.7692	0.9487	0.3077	0.6923	0.2564	0.8205	0.0769
season	0.20	7	39.000	12.000	27.000	10.000	32.000	3.000	2.7692	0.9487	0.3077	0.6923	0.2564	0.8205	0.0769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5540
predicted_ER	1.5480
predicted_ERA	2.6483
predicted_H	3.6300
predicted_HR	0.4140
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.7560
predicted_WHIP	0.9858

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.5540	1.7886	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.5480	1.2597	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6483	2.6483	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	3.6300	4.3507	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4140	0.7223	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.1000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.7560	5.9365	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9858	0.9858	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	5
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	7
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	84

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	16
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.77
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	70
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	46
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	624133
playerID	624133
playerName	Ranger Suarez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 14

All-history rows before 20260514: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.357	2.000	-0.357	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.000	0.157	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.357	3.000	0.643	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.4000	0.4000	1.8000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	0.000	5.000	4.000	16.000	0.0000	0.9310	0.0000	0.5172	0.4138	1.6552
season	0.20	14	13.200	1.000	7.000	5.000	19.000	0.6585	0.8780	0.0732	0.5122	0.3659	1.3902

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4700
predicted_ER	0.3730
predicted_ERA	2.7573
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4680
predicted_WHIP	1.1583

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4700	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3730	0.1403	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7573	2.7573	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9390	0.9771	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1010	0.0380	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.4680	1.7999	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1583	1.1583	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Justin Slaten (686580) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 6

All-history rows before 20260514: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	1.000	0.250	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.9231	0.6923	0.2308	0.9231
last_10	0.35	6	5.100	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.9375	0.5625	0.3750	1.1250
season	0.20	6	5.100	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.9375	0.5625	0.3750	1.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4560
predicted_ER	0.4890
predicted_ERA	3.4512
predicted_H	1.1390
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2190
predicted_WHIP	1.2504

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4560	0.1374	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4890	0.1474	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4512	3.4512	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1390	1.0419	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1350	0.0407	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2190	1.7646	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2504	1.2504	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	686580
playerID	686580
playerName	Justin Slaten
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 16

All-history rows before 20260514: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	1.625	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.812	0.000	2.188	3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	-0.006	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	-0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.9375	0.1875	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	4.000	9.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	3.4839	1.0645	0.3871	0.8710	0.1935	1.0645	0.0968
season	0.20	16	16.100	6.000	13.000	6.000	20.000	2.000	3.3061	1.1633	0.3674	0.7959	0.3674	1.2245	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_ER	0.4300
predicted_ERA	3.8743
predicted_H	0.9180
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0560
predicted_WHIP	1.2376

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3190	0.1256	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4300	1.3819	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8743	3.8743	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.9180	2.1803	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1010	0.0398	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0560	1.0220	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2376	1.2376	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.31
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Tyler Samaniego (701719) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 13

All-history rows before 20260514: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.885	0.200	0.115	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.923	1.000	0.077	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.8571	0.2143	0.6429	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	8.000	4.000	8.000	1.0588	0.7059	0.3529	0.7059
season	0.20	13	15.000	8.000	7.000	12.000	1.0000	0.5333	0.4667	0.8000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4270
predicted_ER	0.2910
predicted_ERA	2.6210
predicted_H	0.7570
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8960
predicted_WHIP	1.1838

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4270	0.1645	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2910	0.1121	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6210	2.6210	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7570	0.2916	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0810	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8960	0.9599	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1838	1.1838	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	701719
playerID	701719
playerName	Tyler Samaniego
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

20260514_SD@MIL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 3 MIL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 3 MIL", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SD 4 - 3 MIL", "winner": "SD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SD 5 - 3 MIL", "winner": "SD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SD 4 - 3 MIL	SD	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SD 5 - 3 MIL	SD	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SD	6-4	0.600	3.60	3.10	5	1W	average	strong
Home MIL	7-3	0.700	4.20	2.60	16	1L	average	strong

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-13	SD @ MIL	3 - 1	SD	2	close
2026-05-12	SD @ MIL	4 - 6	MIL	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SD	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target MIL	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SD	33	9	1	0	1	1	9
Player finalized MIL	34	9	5	0	3	3	9
Player model fractional SD	31.74	5.84	3.30	0.80	3.16	3.00	8.83
Player model fractional MIL	33.36	7.35	4.53	0.58	3.74	3.85	7.27
Simulation box SD	38	11	5	0	5	0	10
Simulation box MIL	32	6	3	0	3	3	3

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SD	Starter	Griffin Canning	3.20	2	2	3	3	4.92	1.40	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Mason Miller	2.10	0	0	0	0	2.70	1.15	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Adrian Morejon	1	0	0	0	0	4.70	1.20	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Bradgley Rodriguez	1	1	2	1	0	3.18	1.00	-
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Jason Adam	1	0	0	0	0	3.06	1.15	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Jeremiah Estrada	1	1	1	3	0	3.36	1.11	True
Home MIL	Starter	Kyle Harrison	3.20	1	5	5	0	3.11	1.31	True
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	Abner Uribe	1.10	0	1	1	0	4.89	1.29	True
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	Trevor Megill	1.10	4	2	4	0	3.73	1.19	True
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	DL Hall	1	0	1	1	0	3.40	1.21	True
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	Grant Anderson	1	0	1	0	0	4.34	1.31	True
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	Aaron Ashby	0.20	0	0	0	0	2.59	1.20	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SD

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 31

All-history rows before 20260514: 31

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2150

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.258	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.258	0.000	0.742	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.452	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.452	4.000	0.548	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.500	0.035	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.742	2.000	0.258	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	1.000	-0.129	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.500	-0.026	-0.250
predicted_R	0.387	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.387	1.000	-0.387	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.387	3.000	-0.387	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.402	1.250	0.098	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.806	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.806	0.000	1.194	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.452	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.258	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.387	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.409	-
predicted_SO	0.806	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	-0.107
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.290	-0.162
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.364	0.106
predicted_H	0.661	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.171	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.406	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.476	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.000
predicted_SO	0.736	-0.070

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2143	0.3529	0.4286	0.2143	0.0714	0.2143	0.2143	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.2000	0.3143	0.4000	0.2000	0.0667	0.1333	0.1333	0.2000
season	0.20	31	-	107.000	23.000	8.000	4.000	12.000	12.000	8.000	25.000	0.2150	0.2759	0.4019	0.2150	0.0374	0.1121	0.0748	0.2336

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1640
predicted_AVG	0.2165
predicted_BB	0.4460
predicted_H	0.6850
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_OBP	0.3201
predicted_R	0.4200
predicted_RBI	0.4970
predicted_SLG	0.4094
predicted_SO	0.6820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2580	0.0680	0.1510	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4520	3.1640	3.2898	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2165	0.2163	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2580	0.4460	0.3639	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6850	0.6610	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1790	0.1707	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3201	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3870	0.4200	0.4056	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4970	0.4765	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4090	0.4094	0.4092	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8060	0.6820	0.7362	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Miguel Andujar (609280) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 29

All-history rows before 20260514: 29

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2963

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.276	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.276	0.000	0.724	1.000
predicted_3B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_AB	3.724	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.724	4.000	0.276	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.250	-0.046	0.000
predicted_BB	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.103	1.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.250	-0.071	0.000
predicted_R	0.345	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.345	0.000	0.655	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.414	0.000	2.586	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.491	0.250	0.009	0.250
predicted_SO	0.759	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.759	1.000	0.241	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	-
predicted_3B	0.069	-
predicted_AB	3.724	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.103	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.345	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.452	-
predicted_SO	0.759	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-0.038
predicted_3B	0.053	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.775	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.088	-0.015
predicted_H	0.877	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.160	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.000
predicted_R	0.327	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.392	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.452	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.920	0.161

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.0000	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	9.000	0.2564	0.2564	0.5128	0.2564	0.0513	0.1026	0.0000	0.2308
season	0.20	29	-	108.000	32.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	3.000	22.000	0.2963	0.3214	0.4907	0.2963	0.0278	0.1111	0.0278	0.2037

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2080
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.8150
predicted_AVG	0.2438
predicted_BB	0.0770
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.2607
predicted_R	0.3130
predicted_RBI	0.4170
predicted_SLG	0.4517
predicted_SO	1.0460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2760	0.2080	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0690	0.0410	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7240	3.8150	3.7750	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2438	0.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1030	0.0770	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9300	0.8773	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1680	0.1601	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2607	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3450	0.3130	0.3271	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4170	0.3920	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4520	0.4517	0.4518	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7590	1.0460	0.9199	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	609280
playerID	609280
playerName	Miguel Andujar
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Freddy Fermin (666023) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 22

All-history rows before 20260514: 22

System season_avg: 0.1710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1714

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.182	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.182	4.000	0.818	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.171	0.250	0.329	0.250
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.545	1.000	1.455	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.268	0.250	0.232	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.136	0.000	0.864	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.242	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.229	0.250	0.521	0.500
predicted_SO	0.773	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.773	1.000	0.227	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.182	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.242	-
predicted_SO	0.773	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.339	0.157
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.265	-0.099
predicted_H	0.570	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.228	-0.000
predicted_R	0.404	-0.096
predicted_RBI	0.144	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.242	0.000
predicted_SO	0.758	-0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1471	0.1892	0.1765	0.1471	0.0294	0.0588	0.2353
season	0.20	22	-	70.000	12.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	8.000	17.000	0.1714	0.2683	0.2286	0.1714	0.0429	0.1143	0.2429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4740
predicted_AVG	0.1863
predicted_BB	0.1800
predicted_H	0.6470
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2277
predicted_R	0.3210
predicted_RBI	0.1640
predicted_SLG	0.2425
predicted_SO	0.7450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.0990	0.1374	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1820	3.4740	3.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1863	0.1862	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.1800	0.2652	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6470	0.5696	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0300	0.0254	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2277	0.2278	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3210	0.4039	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1640	0.1436	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2420	0.2425	0.2423	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7730	0.7450	0.7580	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.171

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	666023
playerID	666023
playerName	Freddy Fermin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SD
teamID	23

Xander Bogaerts (593428) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2568

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.075	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	3.000	1.300	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.000	0.343	0.600
predicted_BB	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.425	1.000	-0.425	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.950	0.000	2.050	3.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.267	0.350
predicted_R	0.475	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.475	1.000	0.525	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.525	0.000	-0.525	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.399	0.000	0.201	0.600
predicted_SO	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.425	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.475	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.307	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	0.041
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.713	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.341	-0.084
predicted_H	0.737	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.072	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.000
predicted_R	0.508	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.274	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.000
predicted_SO	0.877	0.177

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.2222	0.2821	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.1111	0.0833	0.2778
season	0.20	40	-	148.000	38.000	3.000	6.000	21.000	19.000	17.000	28.000	0.2568	0.3333	0.3986	0.2568	0.0405	0.1419	0.1149	0.1892

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7230
predicted_AVG	0.2069
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	0.7700
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_OBP	0.2631
predicted_R	0.5320
predicted_RBI	0.2830
predicted_SLG	0.3070
predicted_SO	1.0020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0750	0.1450	0.1160	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.7230	3.7135	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2069	0.2069	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4250	0.2820	0.3413	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7700	0.7368	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0740	0.0723	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2631	0.2631	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4750	0.5320	0.5083	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2830	0.2735	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3070	0.3070	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	1.0020	0.8767	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	593428
playerID	593428
playerName	Xander Bogaerts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Ramón Laureano (657656) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 35

All-history rows before 20260514: 35

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2197

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3320

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	0.943	1.000
predicted_AB	3.771	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.771	3.000	0.229	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.105	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.030	0.250
predicted_BB	0.457	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.457	1.000	-0.457	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.330	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	0.000	0.171	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.250	-0.055	0.000
predicted_R	0.486	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	0.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.188	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.000	0.356	0.750
predicted_SO	1.286	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.286	2.000	-1.286	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.771	-
predicted_AVG	0.105	-
predicted_BB	0.457	-
predicted_H	0.330	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.188	-
predicted_SO	1.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.030	-0.027
predicted_AB	3.361	-0.409
predicted_AVG	0.105	0.000
predicted_BB	0.629	0.172
predicted_H	0.326	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.067	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.000
predicted_R	0.386	-0.100
predicted_RBI	0.168	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.188	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.276	-0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.086 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	0.0000	0.2941	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4167	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	14.000	0.0968	0.2432	0.1935	0.0968	0.0323	0.0323	0.1935	0.4516
season	0.20	35	-	132.000	29.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	19.000	17.000	16.000	45.000	0.2197	0.3046	0.3939	0.2197	0.0379	0.1439	0.1212	0.3409

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0390
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.0650
predicted_AVG	0.1053
predicted_BB	0.7530
predicted_H	0.3230
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.2828
predicted_R	0.3140
predicted_RBI	0.1660
predicted_SLG	0.1876
predicted_SO	1.2680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.0390	0.0705	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0100	0.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7710	3.0650	3.3615	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1050	0.1053	0.1052	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4570	0.7530	0.6287	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3300	0.3230	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0640	0.0665	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2828	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.3140	0.3862	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1660	0.1677	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1880	0.1876	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2860	1.2680	1.2756	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	657656
playerID	657656
playerName	Ramón Laureano
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Nick Castellanos (592206) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 21

All-history rows before 20260514: 21

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1892

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.524	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.524	4.000	0.476	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.000	0.311	0.500
predicted_BB	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.228	0.000	0.272	0.500
predicted_R	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.190	0.000	0.810	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.619	0.000	-0.619	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.284	0.000	0.216	0.500
predicted_SO	1.048	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.048	3.000	0.952	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.524	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.190	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.190	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.304	-
predicted_SO	1.048	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.560	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.157	-0.033
predicted_H	0.719	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.058	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.246	-0.000
predicted_R	0.250	0.060
predicted_RBI	0.629	0.069
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.000
predicted_SO	1.140	0.092

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.2222	0.0000	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	12.000	0.2059	0.2222	0.3235	0.2059	0.0294	0.2353	0.0294	0.3529
season	0.20	21	-	74.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	13.000	4.000	4.000	22.000	0.1892	0.2278	0.2838	0.1892	0.0135	0.1757	0.0541	0.2973

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5920
predicted_AVG	0.2193
predicted_BB	0.1290
predicted_H	0.7880
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2459
predicted_R	0.3020
predicted_RBI	0.6890
predicted_SLG	0.3042
predicted_SO	1.2200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1020	0.1430	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5240	3.5920	3.5603	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2193	0.2192	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1900	0.1290	0.1574	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7880	0.7190	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0650	0.0580	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2459	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1900	0.3020	0.2498	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6890	0.6289	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3040	0.3042	0.3041	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0480	1.2200	1.1398	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	592206
playerID	592206
playerName	Nick Castellanos
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2517

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.775	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.775	4.000	1.225	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.500	-0.252	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.950	2.000	-0.950	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.500	-0.329	-0.500
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.298	0.500	-0.298	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.050	1.000	-0.050	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.775	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.271	-
predicted_SO	1.050	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.617	-0.158
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.516	0.066
predicted_H	0.805	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.330	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.339	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.000
predicted_SO	0.967	-0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.444)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.2500	0.2500	0.1250	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	10.000	0.1944	0.2750	0.2222	0.1944	0.0556	0.1111	0.2778
season	0.20	40	-	151.000	38.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	15.000	18.000	42.000	0.2517	0.3295	0.2980	0.2517	0.0927	0.1192	0.2782

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5060
predicted_AVG	0.2328
predicted_BB	0.5620
predicted_H	0.8160
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.3367
predicted_R	0.2980
predicted_RBI	0.3460
predicted_SLG	0.2712
predicted_SO	0.9090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0730	0.0944	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0060	0.0138	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7750	3.5060	3.6169	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2328	0.2329	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.5620	0.5158	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8160	0.8053	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0182	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3367	0.3368	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.2980	0.3298	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3460	0.3394	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2710	0.2712	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0500	0.9090	0.9672	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SD
teamID	23

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	4.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.137	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.062	0.250
predicted_BB	0.525	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.525	0.000	-0.525	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.675	0.000	0.325	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.175	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.114	0.400
predicted_R	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.289	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.340	0.000	-0.090	0.250
predicted_SO	0.950	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.950	0.000	1.050	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.137	-
predicted_BB	0.525	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.175	-
predicted_R	0.550	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.289	-
predicted_SO	0.950	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.759	0.159
predicted_AVG	0.137	0.000
predicted_BB	0.334	-0.191
predicted_H	0.498	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.167	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.175	0.000
predicted_R	0.444	-0.106
predicted_RBI	0.375	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.289	0.000
predicted_SO	1.083	0.133

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.132 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2500	0.1000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.1026	0.1429	0.2564	0.1026	0.0513	0.0769	0.0513	0.3077
season	0.20	40	-	144.000	27.000	4.000	6.000	20.000	22.000	21.000	38.000	0.1875	0.2857	0.3403	0.1875	0.0417	0.1389	0.1458	0.2639

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8720
predicted_AVG	0.1374
predicted_BB	0.1990
predicted_H	0.5320
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_OBP	0.1754
predicted_R	0.3690
predicted_RBI	0.4000
predicted_SLG	0.2891
predicted_SO	1.1770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0460	0.0684	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.8720	3.7594	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1370	0.1374	0.1372	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5250	0.1990	0.3340	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5320	0.4981	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1790	0.1670	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1750	0.1754	0.1752	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5500	0.3690	0.4439	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4000	0.3752	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2890	0.2891	0.2891	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9500	1.1770	1.0830	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Bryce Johnson (669369) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 6

All-history rows before 20260514: 6

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	3.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.250	-0.286	-0.250
predicted_R	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.339	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	1.167	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	2.000	-1.167	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.339	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	-0.054
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.320	0.153
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.302	-0.031
predicted_H	0.651	0.091
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.245	0.078
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.075	-0.092

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.2500	0.1875	0.1250	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.35	6	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3158	0.2105	0.1053	0.1053	0.3684
season	0.20	6	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3158	0.2105	0.1053	0.1053	0.3684

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1980
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.5490
predicted_AVG	0.2220
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	0.7880
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2793
predicted_R	0.3610
predicted_RBI	0.4380
predicted_SLG	0.3385
predicted_SO	0.9380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.1980	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0032	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.5490	3.3204	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2220	0.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2560	0.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.7880	0.6515	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0670	0.0568	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2793	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.3610	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.4380	0.3614	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3390	0.3385	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	0.9380	1.0751	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260501_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	669369
playerID	669369
playerName	Bryce Johnson
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Griffin Canning (656288) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 2

All-history rows before 20260514: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.500	2.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	3.500	6.000	-1.500	-4.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	5.000	7.000	-2.000	-4.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.550	4.100	-1.350	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	6.000	5.000	-4.000	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	9.100	7.000	10.000	5.000	12.000	1.000	6.7500	1.6071	0.7500	1.0714	0.5357	1.2857	0.1071
last_10	0.35	2	9.100	7.000	10.000	5.000	12.000	1.000	6.7500	1.6071	0.7500	1.0714	0.5357	1.2857	0.1071
season	0.20	2	9.100	7.000	10.000	5.000	12.000	1.000	6.7500	1.6071	0.7500	1.0714	0.5357	1.2857	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6790
predicted_ER	2.1590
predicted_ERA	4.9159
predicted_H	3.8610
predicted_HR	0.4840
predicted_IP	4.0000
predicted_SO	4.1560
predicted_WHIP	1.4016

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.6790	2.5400	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.1590	2.0554	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9159	4.9159	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	3.8610	3.2998	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4840	0.1685	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.0000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.1560	2.7507	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4016	1.4016	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	2
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	83
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	49
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	656288
playerID	656288
playerName	Griffin Canning
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 19

All-history rows before 20260514: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.421	1.000	-0.421	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.011	1.000	1.089	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	2.105	2.000	-2.105	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.3750	0.5625	2.2500
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	7.000	4.000	17.000	1.7419	1.0645	0.1935	0.6774	0.3871	1.6452
season	0.20	19	19.200	2.000	8.000	5.000	40.000	0.9153	0.6610	0.1017	0.4068	0.2542	2.0339

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7100
predicted_ER	0.5240
predicted_ERA	2.6960
predicted_H	1.2960
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	2.4700
predicted_WHIP	1.1472

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7100	0.2931	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5240	0.2163	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6960	2.6960	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2960	0.5349	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1260	0.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.2000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	2.4700	1.0195	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1472	1.1472	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.92
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.222	0.000	-1.222	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.972	0.100	0.028	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.444	0.000	-1.444	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	6.3529	1.0588	0.7059	0.8823	0.1765	1.5882	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	5.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	2.000	3.8571	0.9429	0.4286	0.6000	0.3429	1.5429	0.1714
season	0.20	18	21.000	13.000	22.000	5.000	26.000	2.000	5.5714	1.2857	0.6190	1.0476	0.2381	1.2381	0.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_ER	0.5660
predicted_ERA	4.7010
predicted_H	0.9570
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3060
predicted_WHIP	1.2031

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3460	0.1452	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5660	0.2375	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7010	4.7010	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9570	0.4016	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1540	0.0646	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3060	0.5480	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2031	1.2031	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	1
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	1
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Bradgley Rodriguez (699134) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.967	1.000	0.033	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	1.000	1.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.6875	0.3750	0.1875	0.3750	0.0000	0.5625
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	2.4545	0.7273	0.2727	0.4546	0.2727	0.4546
season	0.20	18	20.200	4.000	15.000	5.000	15.000	1.7419	0.9677	0.1935	0.7258	0.2419	0.7258

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_ER	0.3540
predicted_ERA	3.1836
predicted_H	0.7290
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7770
predicted_WHIP	1.0027

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2740	0.1145	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3540	0.7300	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1836	3.1836	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7290	0.8867	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7770	1.4888	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0027	1.0027	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.74
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	699134
playerID	699134
playerName	Bradgley Rodriguez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 14

All-history rows before 20260514: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.879	1.000	0.121	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.6000	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.7419	0.8710	0.1935	0.6774	0.1935	0.4839	0.0968
season	0.20	14	13.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	1.3846	0.8462	0.1538	0.6154	0.2308	0.3846	0.0769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3200
predicted_ER	0.3400
predicted_ERA	3.0601
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7460
predicted_WHIP	1.1541

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3200	0.1188	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3400	0.1263	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0601	3.0601	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8340	0.3097	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1020	0.0379	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7460	0.2770	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1541	1.1541	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.38
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jeremiah Estrada (669093) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 12

All-history rows before 20260514: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.583	1.000	2.417	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.100	0.100	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	0.000	-0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	1.5882	0.5294	0.1765	0.3529	0.1765	1.4118	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	0.8182	0.7273	0.0909	0.4546	0.2727	1.0909	0.0909
season	0.20	12	12.200	5.000	7.000	6.000	16.000	1.000	3.5526	1.0263	0.3947	0.5526	0.4737	1.2632	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_ER	0.3730
predicted_ERA	3.3553
predicted_H	0.7680
predicted_HR	0.1280
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0620
predicted_WHIP	1.1114

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3430	0.1265	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3730	0.7687	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3553	3.3553	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.7680	2.1766	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1280	0.0472	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0620	1.0229	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1114	1.1114	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.55
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669093
playerID	669093
playerName	Jeremiah Estrada
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Home Team: MIL

Sal Frelick (686217) · BATTER · RF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 34

All-history rows before 20260514: 34

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2167

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.529	4.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.500	-0.217	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.765	2.000	-0.765	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.500	-0.304	-0.500
predicted_R	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.500	-0.308	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.485	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.636	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.394	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	0.485	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.051	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.773	0.137
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.124
predicted_H	0.910	0.150
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.544	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.418	0.068
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	0.518	0.033

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.3000	0.3000	0.0000	0.1500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	0.2564	0.2927	0.3333	0.2564	0.0256	0.1026	0.0513	0.0769
season	0.20	33	-	120.000	26.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	18.000	13.000	16.000	0.2167	0.2985	0.3083	0.2167	0.0250	0.0833	0.1083	0.1333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0440
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8750
predicted_AVG	0.2637
predicted_BB	0.1780
predicted_H	1.0220
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2986
predicted_R	0.5430
predicted_RBI	0.4680
predicted_SLG	0.3281
predicted_SO	0.5430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0610	0.0440	0.0513	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6360	3.8750	3.7729	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2637	0.2638	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3940	0.1780	0.2703	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	1.0220	0.9101	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0670	0.0597	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2986	0.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.5430	0.5439	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4680	0.4176	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3281	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4850	0.5430	0.5182	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	686217
playerID	686217
playerName	Sal Frelick
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIL
teamID	16

William Contreras (661388) · BATTER · DH · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 37

All-history rows before 20260514: 37

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2886

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.027	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.027	4.000	-0.027
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.000	-0.289
predicted_BB	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.459	0.000	-0.459
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.162	0.000	-1.162
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.000	-0.363
predicted_R	0.595	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.595	0.000	-0.595
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.703	0.000	-0.703
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.403	0.000	-0.403
predicted_SO	0.514	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.514	0.000	-0.514

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.027	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.459	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.595	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.354	-
predicted_SO	0.514	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.844	-0.183
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000
predicted_BB	0.469	0.010
predicted_H	1.040	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.037	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.359	-0.000
predicted_R	0.459	-0.136
predicted_RBI	0.596	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.000
predicted_SO	0.564	0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.027

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.2941	0.3810	0.3529	0.2941	0.0000	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.2821	0.3556	0.3077	0.2821	0.0000	0.1538	0.1026	0.1282
season	0.20	37	-	149.000	43.000	8.000	3.000	26.000	22.000	17.000	19.000	0.2886	0.3631	0.4027	0.2886	0.0201	0.1745	0.1141	0.1275

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1720
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7150
predicted_AVG	0.2820
predicted_BB	0.4770
predicted_H	1.0480
predicted_HBP	0.0370
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.3589
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.6000
predicted_SLG	0.3542
predicted_SO	0.5990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.1720	0.1902	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0270	3.7150	3.8442	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2820	0.2820	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4590	0.4770	0.4695	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0480	1.0405	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0370	0.0370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3589	0.3589	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5950	0.3630	0.4591	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6000	0.5959	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3540	0.3542	0.3541	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5140	0.5990	0.5638	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	661388
playerID	661388
playerName	William Contreras
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIL
teamID	16

Luis Rengifo (650859) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 28

All-history rows before 20260514: 28

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2115

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	4.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.750	0.288	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	3.000	1.214	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.284	0.750	0.216	-0.250
predicted_R	0.393	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.393	0.000	0.607	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.288	0.750	0.462	0.000
predicted_SO	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.393	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	0.429	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-0.086
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.674	-0.040
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.408	0.051
predicted_H	0.896	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.000
predicted_R	0.435	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.320	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.452	0.023

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.2941	0.2941	0.0588	0.1765	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.3158	0.2632	0.1316	0.1053	0.0790
season	0.20	28	-	104.000	22.000	8.000	11.000	11.000	10.000	12.000	0.2115	0.2845	0.2885	0.2115	0.1058	0.0961	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1330
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6430
predicted_AVG	0.2621
predicted_BB	0.4480
predicted_H	0.9550
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.3436
predicted_R	0.4680
predicted_RBI	0.3640
predicted_SLG	0.3198
predicted_SO	0.4690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.1330	0.1998	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.6430	3.6740	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2621	0.2621	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.4480	0.4082	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9550	0.8960	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0223	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3436	0.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3930	0.4680	0.4352	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3640	0.3404	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3198	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4290	0.4690	0.4515	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	650859
playerID	650859
playerName	Luis Rengifo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Andrew Vaughn (683734) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 6

All-history rows before 20260514: 6

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2381

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.250	-0.238	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.250	-0.360	-0.250
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.426	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.250	-0.429	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.426	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.008
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.552	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.334	0.001
predicted_H	0.777	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.205	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.654	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.481	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.426	0.000
predicted_SO	0.596	0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.1765	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	6	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.2381	0.3600	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.1905	0.0952	0.1429
season	0.20	6	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.2381	0.3600	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.1905	0.0952	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6230
predicted_AVG	0.2402
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_H	0.8700
predicted_HBP	0.2050
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_OBP	0.3384
predicted_R	0.6350
predicted_RBI	0.5390
predicted_SLG	0.4264
predicted_SO	0.7280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1870	0.1754	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0029	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6230	3.5516	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2402	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3360	0.3343	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8700	0.7771	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2050	0.2050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1580	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3384	0.3382	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6350	0.6536	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5390	0.4815	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4260	0.4264	0.4262	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7280	0.5957	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	683734
playerID	683734
playerName	Andrew Vaughn
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brice Turang (668930) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 37

All-history rows before 20260514: 37

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2950

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.757	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.757	4.000	-0.757	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.000	0.038	0.333
predicted_BB	0.784	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.784	0.000	0.216	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.108	0.000	-0.108	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.414	0.000	0.086	0.500
predicted_R	0.838	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.838	0.000	-0.838	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.703	1.000	-0.703	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.461	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.504	0.000	-0.170	0.333
predicted_SO	0.919	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.919	0.000	-0.919	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.757	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.784	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.838	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.461	-
predicted_SO	0.919	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.885	0.128
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.558	-0.226
predicted_H	1.034	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.168	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.708	-0.130
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.461	0.000
predicted_SO	0.790	-0.129

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.1905	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	8.000	7.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4348	0.5128	0.3333	0.0513	0.1795	0.1795	0.1538
season	0.20	37	-	139.000	41.000	9.000	1.000	6.000	26.000	31.000	29.000	34.000	0.2950	0.4142	0.5036	0.2950	0.0432	0.1870	0.2086	0.2446

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1750
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.9750
predicted_AVG	0.2769
predicted_BB	0.3980
predicted_H	1.1010
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.3366
predicted_R	0.6160
predicted_RBI	0.7020
predicted_SLG	0.4612
predicted_SO	0.6990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.1750	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0070	0.0153	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7570	3.9750	3.8848	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2769	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7840	0.3980	0.5577	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.1010	1.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1810	0.1682	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3366	0.3368	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8380	0.6160	0.7078	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.7020	0.6598	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4610	0.4612	0.4611	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9190	0.6990	0.7900	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	668930
playerID	668930
playerName	Brice Turang
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Garrett Mitchell (669003) · BATTER · CF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 30

All-history rows before 20260514: 30

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2190

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	0.967	1.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.031	0.250
predicted_BB	0.633	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.633	1.000	-0.633	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.767	0.000	0.233	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.250	-0.091	0.000
predicted_R	0.533	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.533	0.000	0.467	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.733	0.000	1.267	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.223	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.324	0.000	0.426	0.750
predicted_SO	1.533	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.533	2.000	-1.533	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	0.633	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.223	-
predicted_SO	1.533	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	-0.059
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.675	0.175
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000
predicted_BB	0.485	-0.148
predicted_H	0.579	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000
predicted_R	0.527	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.333	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.567	0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.158 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.1053	0.1429	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.5263
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	16.000	0.1750	0.2609	0.2000	0.1750	0.0000	0.0750	0.1250	0.4000
season	0.20	30	-	105.000	23.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	22.000	16.000	19.000	46.000	0.2190	0.3413	0.3238	0.2190	0.0095	0.2095	0.1809	0.4381

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.8080
predicted_AVG	0.1700
predicted_BB	0.3730
predicted_H	0.6470
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2395
predicted_R	0.5230
predicted_RBI	0.3730
predicted_SLG	0.2229
predicted_SO	1.5930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0970	0.1414	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0090	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.8080	3.6752	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1700	0.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6330	0.3730	0.4851	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6470	0.5793	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0251	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2395	0.2393	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.5230	0.5273	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3730	0.3329	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2230	0.2229	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5330	1.5930	1.5671	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669003
playerID	669003
playerName	Garrett Mitchell
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jackson Chourio (694192) · BATTER · LF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 7

All-history rows before 20260514: 7

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.286	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.286	4.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.250	-0.083	0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.429	1.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.394	0.400	-0.144	-0.150
predicted_R	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.318	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.433	0.250	-0.183	0.000
predicted_SO	0.857	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.429	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.318	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.299	-0.130
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	4.166	-0.120
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.392	-0.037
predicted_H	0.923	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.198	0.055
predicted_RBI	0.434	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.318	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.882	0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.286

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.1905	0.2609	0.1905	0.1905	0.0952	0.0952	0.2381
last_10	0.35	7	-	30.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3939	0.4333	0.3333	0.1000	0.1000	0.2000
season	0.20	7	-	30.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3939	0.4333	0.3333	0.1000	0.1000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1400
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.0190
predicted_AVG	0.2337
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.2986
predicted_R	0.2660
predicted_RBI	0.4400
predicted_SLG	0.3177
predicted_SO	0.9130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4290	0.1400	0.2993	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0031	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2860	4.0190	4.1662	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2337	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.3460	0.3917	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9390	0.9230	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0610	0.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2986	0.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.2660	0.1982	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4400	0.4345	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3180	0.3177	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.9130	0.8821	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	694192
playerID	694192
playerName	Jackson Chourio
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Gary Sánchez (596142) · BATTER · C · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 22

All-history rows before 20260514: 22

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2055

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2050

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.318	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.318	3.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.000	0.128	0.333
predicted_BB	0.773	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.773	1.000	0.227	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.682	0.000	0.318	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.250	0.137	0.250
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.425	0.000	-0.091	0.333
predicted_SO	0.955	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.955	3.000	0.045	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.318	-
predicted_AVG	0.180	-
predicted_BB	0.773	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.271	-
predicted_SO	0.955	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.040	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.467	0.149
predicted_AVG	0.180	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.667	-0.106
predicted_H	0.593	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.000
predicted_R	0.544	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.984	0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.1176	0.2857	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.2353	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	9.000	0.1842	0.2619	0.2632	0.1842	0.0000	0.1316	0.1053	0.2368
season	0.20	22	-	73.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	12.000	17.000	21.000	0.2055	0.3626	0.4247	0.2055	0.0548	0.1507	0.2329	0.2877

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.5910
predicted_AVG	0.1797
predicted_BB	0.5780
predicted_H	0.6450
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.2959
predicted_R	0.5440
predicted_RBI	0.3160
predicted_SLG	0.2707
predicted_SO	1.0090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0820	0.0861	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0360	0.0401	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3180	3.5910	3.4669	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1800	0.1797	0.1798	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7730	0.5780	0.6667	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6450	0.5927	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0580	0.0544	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2959	0.2959	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.5440	0.5445	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3160	0.2905	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2710	0.2707	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9550	1.0090	0.9844	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	596142
playerID	596142
playerName	Gary Sánchez
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIL
teamID	16

David Hamilton (666152) · BATTER · SS · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 30

All-history rows before 20260514: 30

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2340

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.133	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.133	4.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.250	-0.234	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.733	1.000	-0.733	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.250	-0.077	0.000
predicted_R	0.533	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.246	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.255	0.250	-0.255	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.733	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.733	1.000	0.267	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.133	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.246	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	0.019
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.322	0.189
predicted_AVG	0.194	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.262	-0.138
predicted_H	0.592	0.102
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.228	-0.000
predicted_R	0.458	-0.075
predicted_RBI	0.191	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.922	0.189

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.1176	0.1176	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.2286	0.2500	0.2857	0.2286	0.0857	0.0286	0.2857
season	0.20	30	-	94.000	22.000	2.000	7.000	16.000	12.000	22.000	0.2340	0.3271	0.2553	0.2340	0.0745	0.1277	0.2340

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4730
predicted_AVG	0.1938
predicted_BB	0.1530
predicted_H	0.6730
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.2276
predicted_R	0.3990
predicted_RBI	0.2160
predicted_SLG	0.2457
predicted_SO	1.0720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.1020	0.0865	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1330	3.4730	3.3225	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1938	0.1939	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.1530	0.2623	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6730	0.5920	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0222	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2276	0.2278	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.3990	0.4583	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.2160	0.1912	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2460	0.2457	0.2458	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	1.0720	0.9220	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	666152
playerID	666152
playerName	David Hamilton
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Kyle Harrison (690986) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 7

All-history rows before 20260514: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.857	4.000	-1.857	-4.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.286	2.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.000	4.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.743	4.000	-1.543	-0.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.857	6.000	-0.857	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.100	6.000	21.000	10.000	27.000	1.000	2.3143	1.3286	0.2571	0.9000	0.4286	1.1571	0.0429
last_10	0.35	7	33.200	9.000	28.000	13.000	41.000	3.000	2.4059	1.2178	0.2673	0.8317	0.3861	1.2178	0.0891
season	0.20	7	33.200	9.000	28.000	13.000	41.000	3.000	2.4059	1.2178	0.2673	0.8317	0.3861	1.2178	0.0891

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7110
predicted_ER	1.4660
predicted_ERA	3.1054
predicted_H	3.8540
predicted_HR	0.3610
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	4.6000
predicted_WHIP	1.3094

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.7110	0.8109	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.4660	1.2209	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1054	3.1054	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	3.8540	4.4569	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3610	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.1000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.6000	4.8104	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3094	1.3094	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	5
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	5
HR	0
BF	17
Pitches	80

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.41
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	77
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	49
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	690986
playerID	690986
playerName	Kyle Harrison
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Abner Uribe (682842) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	3.000	-0.500	-3.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.722	2.000	0.278	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.817	1.000	0.283	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	1.000	0.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	7.2000	1.4000	0.8000	0.8000	0.6000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	9.000	2.000	5.0000	1.1111	0.5556	0.5556	0.5556	1.0000	0.2222
season	0.20	18	16.100	9.000	13.000	6.000	17.000	2.000	4.9592	1.1633	0.5510	0.7959	0.3674	1.0408	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5320
predicted_ER	0.6530
predicted_ERA	4.8902
predicted_H	1.0220
predicted_HR	0.1850
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1330
predicted_WHIP	1.2927

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5320	0.2095	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6530	0.2571	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8902	4.8902	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0220	1.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1850	0.0728	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1330	1.0524	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2927	1.2927	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.96
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	682842
playerID	682842
playerName	Abner Uribe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Trevor Megill (656730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 16

All-history rows before 20260514: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	0.625	1.000	3.375	3.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	0.875	2.000	3.125	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.938	1.000	0.163	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.188	3.000	0.812	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	14.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.4000
season	0.20	15	15.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	19.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.8000	0.4000	1.2667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3960
predicted_ER	0.5010
predicted_ERA	3.7297
predicted_H	1.0410
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3450
predicted_WHIP	1.1890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3960	0.1525	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	0.5010	2.6521	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7297	3.7297	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	1.0410	2.8601	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0970	0.0374	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3450	1.7477	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1890	1.1890	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	4
R	4
ER	4
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656730
playerID	656730
playerName	Trevor Megill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

DL Hall (669084) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.824	2.000	-0.824	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.588	1.000	0.412	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.953	1.000	0.047	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.235	0.000	-0.235	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.2000	0.6000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	4.000	6.000	8.000	11.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.5625	0.7500	1.0312	0.0938
season	0.20	17	19.000	4.000	10.000	14.000	21.000	1.000	1.8947	1.2632	0.2105	0.5263	0.7368	1.1053	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5090
predicted_ER	0.3780
predicted_ERA	3.4029
predicted_H	0.7040
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9510
predicted_WHIP	1.2130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5090	0.2083	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3780	0.1547	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4029	3.4029	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7040	0.8789	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0920	0.0376	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9510	0.9799	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2130	1.2130	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.89
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669084
playerID	669084
playerName	DL Hall
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Grant Anderson (681982) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.750	0.200	0.250	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	2.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	5.4000	1.5000	0.6000	1.5000	0.0000	1.2000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	4.000	8.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.3200	1.2000	0.4800	0.9600	0.2400	0.7200	0.2400
season	0.20	18	17.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	15.000	2.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529	0.8823	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2580
predicted_ER	0.4310
predicted_ERA	4.3415
predicted_H	0.9150
predicted_HR	0.2040
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8590
predicted_WHIP	1.3143

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2580	0.1026	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4310	0.1714	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3415	4.3415	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9150	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2040	0.0811	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8590	0.9439	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3143	1.3143	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	681982
playerID	681982
playerName	Grant Anderson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Aaron Ashby (676879) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.950	0.000	-0.950	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.210	1.000	-1.010	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	2.150	2.000	-2.150	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.200	1.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	0.000	1.0385	0.9231	0.1154	0.4615	0.4615	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	1.000	7.000	9.000	21.000	0.000	0.6750	1.2000	0.0750	0.5250	0.6750	1.5750	0.0000
season	0.20	20	27.000	6.000	19.000	15.000	43.000	1.000	2.0000	1.2593	0.2222	0.7037	0.5556	1.5926	0.0370

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5130
predicted_ER	0.3130
predicted_ERA	2.5894
predicted_H	0.7940
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3740
predicted_WHIP	1.1993

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5130	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3130	0.1396	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5894	2.5894	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7940	0.3542	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0720	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3740	0.6129	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1993	1.1993	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	676879
playerID	676879
playerName	Aaron Ashby
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

20260514_SEA@HOU

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.538832, "home_win_probability": 0.461168, "away_win_probability": 0.538832, "predicted_score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 HOU", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 HOU", "confidence": 0.538832, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 HOU", "winner": "SEA"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "SEA 6 - 2 HOU", "winner": "SEA"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SEA 5 - 4 HOU	SEA	0.539	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SEA 6 - 2 HOU	SEA	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SEA	5-5	0.500	4	3.40	6	2W	average	strong
Home HOU	4-6	0.400	3	4.60	-16	4L	cold	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-13	SEA @ HOU	10 - 2	SEA	8	blowout
2026-05-12	SEA @ HOU	3 - 1	SEA	2	close
2026-04-13	HOU @ SEA	2 - 6	SEA	4	blowout
2026-04-12	HOU @ SEA	1 - 6	SEA	5	blowout
2026-04-12	HOU @ SEA	7 - 8	SEA	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SEA	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target HOU	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SEA	33	8	4	0	4	2	9
Player finalized HOU	34	9	1	0	0	2	8
Player model fractional SEA	31.72	7.30	4.24	1.22	4.25	3.74	8.00
Player model fractional HOU	32.11	6.87	3.28	0.75	2.77	2.52	7.85
Simulation box SEA	36	10	6	1	6	5	10
Simulation box HOU	33	6	2	2	2	1	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SEA	Starter	Luis Castillo	5.10	2	5	5	1	5.58	1.47	True
Away SEA	Middle Reliever	Cooper Criswell	1.20	0	0	0	0	2.87	1.04	True
Away SEA	Middle Reliever	Alex Hoppe	1.10	1	3	1	0	4.72	1.33	-
Away SEA	Middle Reliever	Andrés Muñoz	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.96	1.29	True
Away SEA	Middle Reliever	Eduard Bazardo	0.20	0	2	1	0	4.13	1.43	True
Home HOU	Starter	Mike Burrows	2.20	3	6	7	1	4.57	1.35	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan King	2.10	0	0	0	0	3.94	1.44	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	AJ Blubaugh	1.10	0	1	0	1	3.71	1.36	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan Abreu	1	1	0	0	0	4.13	1.47	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Steven Okert	1	0	2	0	2	3.68	1.25	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Enyel De Los Santos	0.20	2	1	3	1	3.93	1.12	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SEA

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 44

All-history rows before 20260514: 44

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2468

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1240

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	0.864	1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.143	0.250	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.000	0.003	0.250
predicted_BB	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.864	0.000	0.136	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.234	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.000	-0.074	0.250
predicted_R	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.202	0.500	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.357	0.000	0.143	0.500
predicted_SO	0.932	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.932	2.000	1.068	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.143	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	0.400	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.234	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.202	-
predicted_SO	0.932	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.531	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.143	0.000
predicted_BB	0.330	0.012
predicted_H	0.464	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.082	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.234	0.000
predicted_R	0.274	-0.181
predicted_RBI	0.292	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.202	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.920	-0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.131 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.0556	0.1500	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	13.000	0.1471	0.2564	0.2059	0.1471	0.0000	0.0882	0.0882	0.3824
season	0.20	44	-	154.000	38.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	22.000	20.000	14.000	41.000	0.2468	0.3237	0.3571	0.2467	0.0195	0.1429	0.0909	0.2662

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5520
predicted_AVG	0.1433
predicted_BB	0.3390
predicted_H	0.5090
predicted_HBP	0.0820
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2343
predicted_R	0.1470
predicted_RBI	0.3210
predicted_SLG	0.2019
predicted_SO	0.9120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1110	0.1213	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0060	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5520	3.5306	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1430	0.1433	0.1432	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.3390	0.3303	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4000	0.5090	0.4640	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0820	0.0820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0253	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2340	0.2343	0.2342	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.1470	0.2740	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3210	0.2917	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2020	0.2019	0.2019	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9320	0.9120	0.9202	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2469

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4240

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.951	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.951	4.000	1.049	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.250	-0.047	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.341	1.000	-0.341	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	1.000	0.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.400	-0.109	-0.200
predicted_R	0.293	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.293	0.000	0.707	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.250	-0.164	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.683	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.683	1.000	0.317	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.951	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.341	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.293	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.373	-
predicted_SO	0.683	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.048
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.975	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.342	0.001
predicted_H	1.056	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000
predicted_R	0.263	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.259	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.000
predicted_SO	0.603	-0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.951

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.3415	0.3864	0.4634	0.3415	0.0244	0.0976	0.0732	0.1220
season	0.20	41	-	162.000	40.000	4.000	5.000	20.000	12.000	14.000	28.000	0.2469	0.3090	0.3642	0.2469	0.0309	0.1235	0.0864	0.1728

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9920
predicted_AVG	0.2760
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	1.1020
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.3352
predicted_R	0.2420
predicted_RBI	0.2730
predicted_SLG	0.3735
predicted_SO	0.5470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0980	0.1790	0.1457	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9510	3.9920	3.9752	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2760	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3410	0.3430	0.3422	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.1020	1.0560	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0690	0.0653	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3352	0.3351	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2930	0.2420	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2730	0.2594	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3730	0.3735	0.3733	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6830	0.5470	0.6029	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 44

All-history rows before 20260514: 44

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3063

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.636	5.000	0.364	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.396	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.400	-0.306	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.386	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.386	0.000	0.614	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	1.280	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.114	2.000	-1.114	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.454	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.400	-0.189	-0.200
predicted_R	0.705	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.705	0.000	-0.705	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.580	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.463	0.400	-0.463	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.636	-
predicted_AVG	0.396	-
predicted_BB	0.386	-
predicted_H	1.280	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.454	-
predicted_R	0.705	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.580	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.268	0.018
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.780	0.144
predicted_AVG	0.396	0.000
predicted_BB	0.241	-0.145
predicted_H	1.432	0.152
predicted_HBP	0.270	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.454	-0.000
predicted_R	0.770	0.065
predicted_RBI	0.516	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.580	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.095	0.095

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.379 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	0.5000	0.5455	0.7500	0.5000	0.0500	0.2000	0.0000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	15.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	11.000	0.3846	0.4419	0.5128	0.3846	0.0256	0.1026	0.0256	0.2821
season	0.20	44	-	160.000	49.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	16.000	31.000	17.000	44.000	0.3063	0.3892	0.4625	0.3063	0.0250	0.1000	0.1062	0.2750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2810
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.8790
predicted_AVG	0.3962
predicted_BB	0.1410
predicted_H	1.5370
predicted_HBP	0.2700
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.4539
predicted_R	0.8150
predicted_RBI	0.5540
predicted_SLG	0.5795
predicted_SO	1.1610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2810	0.2683	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0060	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6360	3.8790	3.7796	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3960	0.3962	0.3961	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3860	0.1410	0.2412	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2800	1.5370	1.4319	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2700	0.2700	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1390	0.1312	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4540	0.4539	0.4539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7050	0.8150	0.7700	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5540	0.5156	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5800	0.5795	0.5797	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1610	1.0952	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

J.P. Crawford (641487) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 35

All-history rows before 20260514: 35

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2097

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2840

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.086	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.543	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.543	5.000	1.457	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.400	-0.010	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.743	2.000	0.257	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.400	-0.164	-0.200
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.355	1.000	-0.155	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.657	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.657	0.000	0.343	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.543	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.800	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.657	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.677	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.670	-0.130
predicted_H	0.740	0.100
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.188	0.028
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.000
predicted_R	0.549	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.527	0.067
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.595	-0.062

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	8.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.4722	0.2222	0.0833	0.1944	0.2222	0.1389
season	0.20	35	-	124.000	26.000	3.000	5.000	14.000	21.000	28.000	23.000	0.2097	0.3636	0.3548	0.2097	0.0403	0.1129	0.2258	0.1855

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0440
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7730
predicted_AVG	0.2153
predicted_BB	0.5760
predicted_H	0.8120
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.2080
predicted_OBP	0.3199
predicted_R	0.5130
predicted_RBI	0.5760
predicted_SLG	0.3938
predicted_SO	0.5510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0860	0.0440	0.0616	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5430	3.7730	3.6767	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2153	0.2152	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8000	0.5760	0.6698	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.8120	0.7400	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.2080	0.1879	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3199	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.5130	0.5494	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5760	0.5274	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3938	0.3939	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6570	0.5510	0.5954	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	641487
playerID	641487
playerName	J.P. Crawford
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SEA
teamID	25

Mitch Garver (641598) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 13

All-history rows before 20260514: 13

System season_avg: 0.1790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1795

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.179	0.000	0.487	0.667
predicted_BB	0.923	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.923	1.000	0.077	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.538	0.000	1.462	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.750	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.250	0.377	0.500
predicted_R	0.538	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.538	1.000	0.462	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.077	0.000	1.923	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.232	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.179	0.000	0.821	1.000
predicted_SO	1.077	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.077	1.000	-1.077	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.176	-
predicted_BB	0.923	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.538	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.232	-
predicted_SO	1.077	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.129	0.129
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.840	-0.083
predicted_H	0.501	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.000
predicted_R	0.564	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.162	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.095	0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.160 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.0714	0.3158	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.3571	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	9.000	10.000	0.1935	0.3750	0.1935	0.1935	0.0323	0.2903	0.3226
season	0.20	13	-	39.000	7.000	1.000	7.000	12.000	14.000	0.1795	0.3725	0.1795	0.1795	0.0256	0.3077	0.3590

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2610
predicted_AVG	0.1758
predicted_BB	0.7550
predicted_H	0.5730
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.3321
predicted_R	0.5910
predicted_RBI	0.1840
predicted_SLG	0.2315
predicted_SO	1.1130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0570	0.0281	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2610	3.1288	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1760	0.1758	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9230	0.7550	0.8401	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5730	0.5006	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0390	0.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3321	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5380	0.5910	0.5642	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1840	0.1617	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2320	0.2315	0.2318	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0770	1.1130	1.0948	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.179

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	641598
playerID	641598
playerName	Mitch Garver
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

Brendan Donovan (680977) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 21

All-history rows before 20260514: 21

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2568

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.524	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.524	4.000	1.476	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.250	0.143	0.150
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	1.000	1.095	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.400	0.029	0.000
predicted_R	0.381	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.381	0.000	0.619	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.381	0.000	0.619	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.254	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.250	0.581	0.750
predicted_SO	0.619	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.619	0.000	0.381	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.524	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.381	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.254	-
predicted_SO	0.619	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.659	0.135
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.366	-0.063
predicted_H	0.648	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.128	-
predicted_HR	0.047	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.000
predicted_R	0.354	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.242	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.547	-0.072

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1000	0.1429	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.1944	0.3182	0.2222	0.1944	0.0000	0.0833	0.1111	0.1111
season	0.20	21	-	74.000	19.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	9.000	13.000	0.2568	0.3708	0.4189	0.2568	0.0405	0.1081	0.1216	0.1757

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7730
predicted_AVG	0.1844
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_H	0.6960
predicted_HBP	0.1280
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.2638
predicted_R	0.3310
predicted_RBI	0.2610
predicted_SLG	0.2539
predicted_SO	0.4870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0950	0.1169	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5240	3.7730	3.6593	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1844	0.1842	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.3130	0.3660	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6960	0.6476	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1280	0.1280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0530	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2638	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3810	0.3310	0.3538	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2610	0.2423	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2540	0.2539	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6190	0.4870	0.5473	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	680977
playerID	680977
playerName	Brendan Donovan
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 44

All-history rows before 20260514: 44

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2686

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	1.000	-0.205	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.977	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.977	4.000	-0.977	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.250	0.065	0.083
predicted_BB	0.341	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.341	1.000	0.659	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.068	1.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.159	0.000	-0.159	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.400	0.067	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.506	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.440	0.500	-0.107	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.023	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.023	1.000	0.977	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.977	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.341	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.506	-
predicted_SO	1.023	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.247	0.042
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.990	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000
predicted_BB	0.343	0.002
predicted_H	1.061	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.203	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.476	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.404	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.506	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.127	0.104

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.977

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.5500	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	0.2683	0.3182	0.5366	0.2683	0.0732	0.0976	0.0732	0.2927
season	0.20	44	-	175.000	47.000	9.000	7.000	20.000	22.000	15.000	45.000	0.2686	0.3333	0.4400	0.2686	0.0400	0.1143	0.0857	0.2571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2760
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9990
predicted_AVG	0.2774
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_H	1.1090
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.2110
predicted_OBP	0.3367
predicted_R	0.4600
predicted_RBI	0.4200
predicted_SLG	0.5059
predicted_SO	1.1990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.2760	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9770	3.9990	3.9900	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2774	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3410	0.3440	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.1090	1.0606	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2110	0.2025	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3367	0.3368	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4600	0.4763	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4200	0.4037	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5060	0.5059	0.5059	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0230	1.1990	1.1274	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Luke Raley (670042) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 31

All-history rows before 20260514: 31

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2700

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	0.871	1.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.226	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.226	3.000	0.774	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.667	0.230	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.226	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.226	0.000	0.774	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.871	2.000	1.129	0.000
predicted_HR	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.258	1.000	-0.258	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.600	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.667	0.264	-0.067
predicted_R	0.484	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.484	1.000	0.516	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.710	1.000	0.290	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.684	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.570	1.667	0.180	-0.917
predicted_SO	1.258	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.258	1.000	-0.258	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.226	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.226	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.340	-
predicted_OBP	0.367	-
predicted_R	0.484	-
predicted_RBI	0.950	-
predicted_SLG	0.684	-
predicted_SO	1.258	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-0.043
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.200	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.282	0.056
predicted_H	0.827	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.126	-
predicted_HR	0.378	0.037
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.000
predicted_R	0.616	0.132
predicted_RBI	1.048	0.098
predicted_SLG	0.684	0.000
predicted_SO	1.203	-0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.117

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4444	0.9333	0.3333	0.2000	0.5333	0.1333	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	11.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	0.2414	0.3333	0.6552	0.2414	0.1379	0.3793	0.1035	0.4138
season	0.20	31	-	100.000	27.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	22.000	15.000	7.000	39.000	0.2700	0.3364	0.5700	0.2700	0.0800	0.2200	0.0700	0.3900

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0520
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.1790
predicted_AVG	0.2789
predicted_BB	0.3260
predicted_H	0.8870
predicted_HBP	0.1260
predicted_HR	0.4070
predicted_OBP	0.3671
predicted_R	0.7190
predicted_RBI	1.1250
predicted_SLG	0.6842
predicted_SO	1.1600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.0520	0.0859	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0080	0.0186	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2260	3.1790	3.1997	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2789	0.2789	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2260	0.3260	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8870	0.8266	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1260	0.1260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3400	0.4070	0.3775	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3670	0.3671	0.3671	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4840	0.7190	0.6155	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9500	1.1250	1.0479	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6840	0.6842	0.6841	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2580	1.1600	1.2032	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670042
playerID	670042
playerName	Luke Raley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Dominic Canzone (686527) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 28

All-history rows before 20260514: 28

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2692

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.786	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.786	1.000	0.214	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	0.714	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.500	-0.087	-0.250
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.607	0.000	-0.607	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.786	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.434	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	-0.082
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.777	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.321	0.035
predicted_H	0.577	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.145	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.000
predicted_R	0.373	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.795	0.076
predicted_SLG	0.434	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.815	0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	11.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1818	0.2857	0.4545	0.1818	0.0909	0.5454	0.1818	0.3636
last_10	0.35	10	-	25.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.2400	0.3103	0.4000	0.2400	0.0400	0.2400	0.1200	0.3600
season	0.20	28	-	78.000	21.000	7.000	4.000	17.000	12.000	8.000	21.000	0.2692	0.3371	0.5128	0.2692	0.0513	0.2180	0.1026	0.2692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	2.7690
predicted_AVG	0.2258
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_H	0.6250
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.3048
predicted_R	0.3260
predicted_RBI	0.8590
predicted_SLG	0.4338
predicted_SO	0.8690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.0990	0.1679	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7860	2.7690	2.7768	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2258	0.2259	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3510	0.3213	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6250	0.5771	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1570	0.1447	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3048	0.3049	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.3260	0.3730	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.8590	0.7955	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4340	0.4338	0.4339	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8690	0.8147	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	686527
playerID	686527
playerName	Dominic Canzone
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

Luis Castillo (622491) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.625	0.000	-0.625	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	3.500	4.000	-1.500	-2.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	6.125	5.000	-1.125	0.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.675	4.000	0.425	1.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	4.625	6.000	0.375	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.100	18.000	30.000	9.000	23.000	5.000	6.3947	1.5395	0.7105	1.1842	0.3553	0.9079	0.1974
last_10	0.35	8	38.100	28.000	49.000	13.000	37.000	6.000	6.5739	1.6174	0.7304	1.2783	0.3391	0.9652	0.1565
season	0.20	8	38.100	28.000	49.000	13.000	37.000	6.000	6.5739	1.6174	0.7304	1.2783	0.3391	0.9652	0.1565

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8310
predicted_ER	3.1380
predicted_ERA	5.5789
predicted_H	5.6120
predicted_HR	0.8250
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.7500
predicted_WHIP	1.4701

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.8310	1.4051	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.1380	2.5548	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.5789	5.5789	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.6120	5.2984	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.8250	0.9147	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.0000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.7500	4.8781	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4701	1.4701	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	5
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	98

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	6.57
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	84
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	622491
playerID	622491
playerName	Luis Castillo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cooper Criswell (681867) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 15

All-history rows before 20260514: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.267	1.000	-0.267	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.153	0.200	0.047	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.067	0.000	-1.067	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.2500	0.2500	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	1.8000	0.7000	0.2000	0.6000	0.1000	0.8000	0.1000
season	0.20	15	18.000	4.000	12.000	4.000	16.000	3.000	2.0000	0.8889	0.2222	0.6667	0.2222	0.8889	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4090
predicted_ER	0.4310
predicted_ERA	2.8681
predicted_H	0.9990
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2050
predicted_WHIP	1.0394

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4090	0.1651	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4310	0.1740	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8681	2.8681	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9990	0.4032	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1400	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2050	0.4864	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0394	1.0394	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	7

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	681867
playerID	681867
playerName	Cooper Criswell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Alex Hoppe (695380) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 6

All-history rows before 20260514: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.167	1.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.033	0.000	0.067	1.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.667	0.000	1.333	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	5.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	6.7500	1.3500	0.7500	0.9000	0.4500	1.5000
last_10	0.35	5	6.200	5.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	6.7500	1.3500	0.7500	0.9000	0.4500	1.5000
season	0.20	5	6.200	5.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	6.7500	1.3500	0.7500	0.9000	0.4500	1.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5260
predicted_ER	0.6990
predicted_ERA	4.7197
predicted_H	1.2410
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4280
predicted_WHIP	1.3258

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5260	0.1662	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6990	0.9049	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7197	4.7197	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2410	1.0761	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1360	0.0430	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.4280	2.5034	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3258	1.3258	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	695380
playerID	695380
playerName	Alex Hoppe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	0.194	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.611	3.000	-0.611	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	1.2000	0.2000	1.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	18.000	2.000	2.7000	1.0000	0.3000	0.8000	0.2000	1.8000	0.2000
season	0.20	18	17.000	10.000	16.000	7.000	29.000	3.000	5.2941	1.3529	0.5882	0.9412	0.4118	1.7059	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3890
predicted_ER	0.5270
predicted_ERA	3.9572
predicted_H	1.1590
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5460
predicted_WHIP	1.2917

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3890	0.1547	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5270	0.2096	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9572	3.9572	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1590	0.4610	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1860	0.0740	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5460	1.2172	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2917	1.2917	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 22

All-history rows before 20260514: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.818	1.000	0.182	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.755	0.200	-0.555	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.773	0.000	1.227	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.5000	0.4286	1.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	10.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	2.8929	1.2857	0.3214	1.0714	0.2143	0.8571	0.1071
season	0.20	22	20.100	5.000	18.000	7.000	17.000	1.000	2.2131	1.2295	0.2459	0.8852	0.3443	0.8361	0.0492

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_ER	0.3740
predicted_ERA	4.1271
predicted_H	0.8710
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7780
predicted_WHIP	1.4286

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2940	0.1224	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3740	0.1557	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1271	4.1271	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8710	0.9463	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1100	0.6295	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7780	1.4913	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4286	1.4286	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.21
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Home Team: HOU

Zach Cole (805904) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 7

All-history rows before 20260514: 7

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	4.000	0.857	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.750	-0.023	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	3.000	0.143	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.800	-0.054	-0.550
predicted_R	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	1.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.455	0.750	0.545	0.250
predicted_SO	1.286	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.286	0.000	-1.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	1.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.017
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.276	0.133
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.060	0.060
predicted_H	0.853	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.109	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.196	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.395	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000
predicted_SO	1.156	-0.130

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.4000	0.3333	0.0000	0.1333	0.3333
last_10	0.35	7	-	22.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.2727	0.3043	0.4545	0.2727	0.0454	0.1364	0.4091
season	0.20	7	-	22.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.2727	0.3043	0.4545	0.2727	0.0454	0.1364	0.4091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.4660
predicted_AVG	0.2765
predicted_BB	0.1470
predicted_H	0.9580
predicted_HBP	0.1090
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.3283
predicted_R	0.2710
predicted_RBI	0.4450
predicted_SLG	0.4024
predicted_SO	0.9700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1850	0.1603	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0029	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.4660	3.2757	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2765	0.2768	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1470	0.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9580	0.8531	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1090	0.1090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0790	0.0678	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3283	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.2710	0.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4450	0.3949	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4024	0.4022	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2860	0.9700	1.1562	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-LF
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	805904
playerID	805904
playerName	Zach Cole
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Jose Altuve (514888) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2516

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.875	3.000	0.125	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.248	0.500
predicted_BB	0.475	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.475	1.000	-0.475	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.975	0.000	1.025	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	0.925	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.200	0.165	0.300
predicted_R	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.650	0.000	0.350	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.275	2.000	0.725	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.374	0.000	0.876	1.250
predicted_SO	0.825	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.825	1.000	1.175	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.475	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	0.825	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-0.055
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.856	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.394	-0.081
predicted_H	1.025	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.000
predicted_R	0.571	-0.079
predicted_RBI	0.348	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000
predicted_SO	0.743	-0.082

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=24.0, weight=0.178, BvP AVG=0.208)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.875

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.3158	0.3636	0.3158	0.3158	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	0.2564	0.3023	0.3333	0.2564	0.0000	0.0769	0.0513	0.2308
season	0.20	40	-	155.000	39.000	10.000	3.000	11.000	26.000	19.000	33.000	0.2516	0.3352	0.3742	0.2516	0.0193	0.0710	0.1226	0.2129

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8420
predicted_AVG	0.2766
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_H	1.0630
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.3319
predicted_R	0.5150
predicted_RBI	0.3600
predicted_SLG	0.3424
predicted_SO	0.6860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1570	0.1953	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8750	3.8420	3.8556	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2766	0.2768	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4750	0.3370	0.3938	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.0630	1.0247	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3319	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.5150	0.5706	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3600	0.3477	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3424	0.3422	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8250	0.6860	0.7432	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	514888
playerID	514888
playerName	Jose Altuve
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 44

All-history rows before 20260514: 44

System season_avg: 0.3090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3086

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.682	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.682	3.000	-0.682	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.309	0.333	0.025	0.000
predicted_BB	0.614	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.614	2.000	0.386	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.136	1.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.418	0.600	0.082	-0.100
predicted_R	0.614	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.614	0.000	-0.614	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.659	0.000	-0.659	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.611	0.333	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SO	0.705	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.705	0.000	0.295	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.682	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.614	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.358	-
predicted_R	0.614	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.354	-
predicted_SO	0.705	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.593	-0.089
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.662	0.048
predicted_H	0.775	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.050	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.000
predicted_R	0.383	-0.231
predicted_RBI	0.225	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.000
predicted_SO	1.172	0.467

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=22.0, weight=0.169, BvP AVG=0.455)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	10.000	0.1765	0.3636	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.2941	0.5882
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	15.000	0.2286	0.3415	0.3429	0.2286	0.0286	0.0571	0.1429	0.4286
season	0.20	44	-	162.000	50.000	10.000	13.000	29.000	27.000	27.000	31.000	0.3086	0.4175	0.6111	0.3086	0.0803	0.1790	0.1667	0.1914

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1720
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5320
predicted_AVG	0.2242
predicted_BB	0.6950
predicted_H	0.7920
predicted_HBP	0.0500
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.3584
predicted_R	0.2250
predicted_RBI	0.2290
predicted_SLG	0.3543
predicted_SO	1.4920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.1720	0.1944	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6820	3.5320	3.5930	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2242	0.2241	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6140	0.6950	0.6621	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7920	0.7749	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0500	0.0500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0950	0.0930	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3580	0.3584	0.3582	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6140	0.2250	0.3832	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2290	0.2253	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3540	0.3543	0.3542	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7050	1.4920	1.1720	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.309

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

César Salazar (663967) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 2

All-history rows before 20260514: 2

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.333	-0.167	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.167	0.333	-0.167	-0.333
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.167	0.333	-0.167	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	0.043
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.198	0.198
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.068	0.068
predicted_H	0.645	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000
predicted_R	0.118	0.118
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000
predicted_SO	0.205	0.205

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	6.000	1.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	2	-	6.000	1.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667
season	0.20	2	-	6.000	1.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.6640
predicted_AVG	0.2310
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	0.8470
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.2822
predicted_R	0.3970
predicted_RBI	0.3790
predicted_SLG	0.3564
predicted_SO	0.6880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1440	0.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.6640	3.1978	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2310	0.2310	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2280	0.0679	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.8470	0.6455	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0980	0.0713	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2822	0.2821	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3970	0.1183	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3790	0.2884	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3564	0.3561	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6880	0.2050	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663967
playerID	663967
playerName	César Salazar
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	HOU
teamID	11

Cam Smith (701358) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.149	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.000	-0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.200	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.307	0.000	-0.307	0.000
predicted_SO	1.175	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.175	3.000	-0.175	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.149	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.200	-
predicted_SO	1.175	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.042
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.400	-0.100
predicted_AVG	0.149	0.000
predicted_BB	0.516	0.066
predicted_H	0.465	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.000
predicted_R	0.327	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.173	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.200	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.214	0.039

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.133 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	0.0667	0.2632	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.2667	0.4667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	12.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2059	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.3529
season	0.20	40	-	140.000	28.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	18.000	47.000	0.2000	0.2981	0.3071	0.2000	0.0214	0.1071	0.1286	0.3357

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0780
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3280
predicted_AVG	0.1494
predicted_BB	0.5630
predicted_H	0.4970
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2757
predicted_R	0.2740
predicted_RBI	0.1830
predicted_SLG	0.1998
predicted_SO	1.2420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.0780	0.1080	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.3280	3.3996	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1490	0.1494	0.1492	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.5630	0.5159	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.4970	0.4649	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0253	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2757	0.2758	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.2740	0.3265	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1830	0.1734	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2000	0.1998	0.1999	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1750	1.2420	1.2141	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	701358
playerID	701358
playerName	Cam Smith
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Isaac Paredes (670623) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 38

All-history rows before 20260514: 38

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2643

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.684	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.684	5.000	0.316	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.200	-0.014	0.050
predicted_BB	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	1.000	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.200	-0.102	0.050
predicted_R	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.200	-0.129	0.050
predicted_SO	0.658	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.658	0.000	0.342	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.684	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.368	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	0.658	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.794	0.110
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.274	-0.094
predicted_H	0.895	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.060	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.000
predicted_R	0.284	-0.137
predicted_RBI	0.269	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	0.693	0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=22.0, weight=0.169, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.2381	0.2381	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3250	0.3056	0.2500	0.0000	0.0556	0.0833	0.2222
season	0.20	38	-	140.000	37.000	7.000	3.000	17.000	16.000	14.000	25.000	0.2643	0.3522	0.3786	0.2643	0.0214	0.1214	0.1000	0.1786

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1250
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8730
predicted_AVG	0.2469
predicted_BB	0.2060
predicted_H	0.9560
predicted_HBP	0.0600
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.2935
predicted_R	0.1860
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.3064
predicted_SO	0.7180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1250	0.1496	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6840	3.8730	3.7942	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2469	0.2469	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3680	0.2060	0.2736	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9560	0.8951	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0600	0.0600	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0323	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2935	0.2933	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.1860	0.2840	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2890	0.2686	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3064	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6580	0.7180	0.6930	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670623
playerID	670623
playerName	Isaac Paredes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 43

All-history rows before 20260514: 43

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2767

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.698	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.698	5.000	0.302	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.200	-0.027	0.050
predicted_BB	0.349	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.349	0.000	-0.349	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.023	1.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.233	1.000	-0.233	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.225	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.200	-0.095	0.050
predicted_R	0.581	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.581	1.000	-0.581	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.674	1.000	-0.674	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.528	0.800	-0.278	-0.550
predicted_SO	0.791	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.791	1.000	0.209	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.698	-
predicted_AVG	0.174	-
predicted_BB	0.349	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.225	-
predicted_R	0.581	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	0.791	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.684	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.000
predicted_BB	0.283	-0.066
predicted_H	0.598	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.181	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.225	0.000
predicted_R	0.454	-0.127
predicted_RBI	0.399	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.882	0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.3333	0.1111	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	0.1622	0.2051	0.3514	0.1622	0.0541	0.0811	0.0541	0.2703
season	0.20	43	-	159.000	44.000	10.000	10.000	29.000	25.000	15.000	34.000	0.2767	0.3446	0.5283	0.2767	0.0629	0.1824	0.0943	0.2138

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1730
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6750
predicted_AVG	0.1740
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	0.6390
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1950
predicted_OBP	0.2253
predicted_R	0.3660
predicted_RBI	0.4270
predicted_SLG	0.3809
predicted_SO	0.9450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.1730	0.1977	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6980	3.6750	3.6845	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1740	0.1740	0.1740	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3490	0.2370	0.2831	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6390	0.5983	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1950	0.1806	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2250	0.2253	0.2252	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5810	0.3660	0.4544	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4270	0.3994	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3809	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7910	0.9450	0.8817	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Brice Matthews (694728) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 27

All-history rows before 20260514: 27

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2088

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.370	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.370	5.000	0.630	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.400	-0.209	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.704	2.000	-0.704	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.214	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.400	-0.255	-0.400
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	2.000	-0.444	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.400	-0.407	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.185	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.185	1.000	0.815	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.370	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.214	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.303	-
predicted_SO	1.185	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.541	0.171
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000
predicted_BB	0.201	-0.021
predicted_H	0.580	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.214	-0.000
predicted_R	0.466	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.283	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.303	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.031	-0.154

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.1944	0.2500	0.4167	0.1944	0.0556	0.1389	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.20	27	-	91.000	19.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	12.000	6.000	32.000	0.2088	0.2551	0.4066	0.2088	0.0440	0.1319	0.0659	0.3517

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0650
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.6800
predicted_AVG	0.1775
predicted_BB	0.1840
predicted_H	0.6530
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_OBP	0.2139
predicted_R	0.4840
predicted_RBI	0.3180
predicted_SLG	0.3026
predicted_SO	0.9060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.0650	0.1023	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0370	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3700	3.6800	3.5408	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1775	0.1773	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.1840	0.2011	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6530	0.5798	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1070	0.0949	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2140	0.2139	0.2139	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4840	0.4660	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.3180	0.2830	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3030	0.3026	0.3028	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1850	0.9060	1.0313	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	694728
playerID	694728
playerName	Brice Matthews
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Braden Shewmake (669699) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	5.000	0.250	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.400	-0.333	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.250	2.000	-1.250	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.400	-0.333	-0.400
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.461	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.533	0.400	-0.533	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	2.000	-0.750	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.301	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.461	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	0.039
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.768	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.301	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.062	0.062
predicted_H	1.033	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.153	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.484	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.392	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.461	0.000
predicted_SO	0.751	0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.3684	0.3684	0.5263	0.3684	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.35	8	-	30.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.5333	0.3333	0.0667	0.1000	0.2000
season	0.20	8	-	30.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.5333	0.3333	0.0667	0.1000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7910
predicted_AVG	0.3006
predicted_BB	0.1420
predicted_H	1.1390
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_OBP	0.3313
predicted_R	0.4630
predicted_RBI	0.4320
predicted_SLG	0.4614
predicted_SO	0.7520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0890	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0031	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7910	3.7680	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3010	0.3006	0.3008	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1420	0.0623	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.1390	1.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1690	0.1527	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3313	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4630	0.4838	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4320	0.3916	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4610	0.4614	0.4612	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7520	0.7509	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669699
playerID	669699
playerName	Braden Shewmake
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Mike Burrows (681347) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.750	1.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	3.125	0.000	-0.125	3.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	6.500	3.000	0.500	4.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	2.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.438	7.000	-3.237	-4.800
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.250	6.000	0.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.200	15.000	30.000	8.000	27.000	5.000	4.7093	1.3256	0.5233	1.0465	0.2791	0.9419	0.1744
last_10	0.35	8	44.200	25.000	52.000	14.000	42.000	8.000	5.0373	1.4776	0.5597	1.1642	0.3134	0.9403	0.1791
season	0.20	8	44.200	25.000	52.000	14.000	42.000	8.000	5.0373	1.4776	0.5597	1.1642	0.3134	0.9403	0.1791

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4650
predicted_ER	2.2920
predicted_ERA	4.5708
predicted_H	4.6400
predicted_HR	0.7120
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.2770
predicted_WHIP	1.3530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.4650	1.2267	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.2920	2.6548	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5708	4.5708	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.6400	5.8495	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7120	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	4.2000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	4.2770	5.1600	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3530	1.3530	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	6
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	82

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.04
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	98
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681347
playerID	681347
playerName	Mike Burrows
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 15

All-history rows before 20260514: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.533	3.000	-0.533	-3.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.053	1.000	1.047	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	3.0000	1.6667	0.3333	1.1667	0.5000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	12.100	6.000	14.000	6.000	7.000	4.3784	1.6216	0.4865	1.1351	0.4865	0.5676
season	0.20	15	17.200	7.000	18.000	8.000	15.000	3.5660	1.4717	0.3962	1.0189	0.4528	0.8491

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8140
predicted_ER	0.8410
predicted_ERA	3.9404
predicted_H	1.9520
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.4920
predicted_WHIP	1.4400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8140	0.3270	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8410	0.3378	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9404	3.9404	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.9520	0.7841	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1450	0.0582	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	2.0000	2.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4920	0.5993	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4400	1.4400	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.57
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	34
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

AJ Blubaugh (805123) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	3.000	0.000	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.882	2.000	-0.882	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.294	2.000	-1.294	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.447	2.000	-0.347	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.294	1.000	-0.294	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.200	3.000	6.000	6.000	8.000	1.000	3.1154	1.3846	0.3462	0.6923	0.6923	0.9231	0.1154
last_10	0.35	10	15.100	4.000	10.000	11.000	14.000	1.000	2.3478	1.3696	0.2609	0.6522	0.7174	0.9130	0.0652
season	0.20	17	26.000	15.000	22.000	17.000	22.000	4.000	5.1923	1.5000	0.5769	0.8461	0.6539	0.8461	0.1538

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8100
predicted_ER	0.6200
predicted_ERA	3.7148
predicted_H	1.2360
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.3980
predicted_WHIP	1.3616

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.8100	0.9160	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6200	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7148	3.7148	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2360	0.5465	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1760	0.0778	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3980	1.1760	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3616	1.3616	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.19
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	46
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	27
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	805123
playerID	805123
playerName	AJ Blubaugh
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan Abreu (650556) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 15

All-history rows before 20260514: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.133	1.000	-1.133	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.867	0.000	0.133	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.867	0.000	-0.867	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.400	1.000	-1.400	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	0.000	1.6875	1.5000	0.1875	0.7500	0.7500	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	5.000	8.000	10.000	13.000	1.000	4.5000	1.8000	0.5000	0.8000	1.0000	1.3000	0.1000
season	0.20	15	13.200	13.000	13.000	17.000	21.000	4.000	8.5610	2.1951	0.9512	0.9512	1.2439	1.5366	0.2927

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5760
predicted_ER	0.4590
predicted_ERA	4.1345
predicted_H	0.8930
predicted_HR	0.1160
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1260
predicted_WHIP	1.4688

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5760	0.2167	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4590	0.7965	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1345	4.1345	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8930	0.3359	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1160	0.0436	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1260	0.4235	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4688	1.4688	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	8.56
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	650556
playerID	650556
playerName	Bryan Abreu
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Steven Okert (595345) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 21

All-history rows before 20260514: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.705	1.100	0.295	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.667	2.000	1.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.8000	0.2000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	4.000	10.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	1.1539	0.2308	0.5769	0.1154
season	0.20	21	19.000	8.000	15.000	7.000	14.000	2.000	3.7895	1.1579	0.4210	0.7895	0.3684	0.7368	0.1053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_ER	0.4090
predicted_ERA	3.6831
predicted_H	0.9320
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8900
predicted_WHIP	1.2535

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3220	1.3133	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4090	0.1674	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6831	3.6831	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9320	0.3814	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0409	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8900	1.5458	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2535	1.2535	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.79
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	595345
playerID	595345
playerName	Steven Okert
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 16

All-history rows before 20260514: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.938	0.000	2.062	3.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.981	1.100	-0.781	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	1.5000	0.3333	0.1667	0.3333	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	7.000	11.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	5.9062	1.3125	0.6562	1.0312	0.2812	0.9375	0.0000
season	0.20	16	17.100	8.000	15.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	4.1538	1.0962	0.4615	0.8654	0.2308	0.9231	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2450
predicted_ER	0.3780
predicted_ERA	3.9339
predicted_H	0.7210
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8290
predicted_WHIP	1.1193

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2450	0.6982	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3780	1.3516	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9339	3.9339	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.7210	2.0890	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0700	0.6282	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8290	0.9316	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1193	1.1193	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	33

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

20260514_SF@LAD

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.526154, "home_win_probability": 0.473846, "away_win_probability": 0.526154, "predicted_score_text": "SF 4 - 3 LAD", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "SF 4 - 3 LAD", "confidence": 0.526154, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SF 4 - 3 LAD", "winner": "SF"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "SF 4 - 1 LAD", "winner": "SF"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SF 4 - 3 LAD	SF	0.526	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SF 4 - 1 LAD	SF	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SF	5-5	0.500	4.10	5	-9	3W	average	average
Home LAD	4-6	0.400	3.90	4.10	-2	4L	average	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-13	SF @ LAD	6 - 2	SF	4	blowout
2026-05-12	SF @ LAD	9 - 3	SF	6	blowout
2026-04-23	LAD @ SF	3 - 0	LAD	3	blowout
2026-04-23	LAD @ SF	0 - 3	SF	3	blowout
2026-04-22	LAD @ SF	1 - 3	SF	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SF	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target LAD	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SF	35	9	4	0	3	0	8
Player finalized LAD	34	9	3	0	1	2	8
Player model fractional SF	34.58	8.49	4.25	0.78	3.67	2.29	7.59
Player model fractional LAD	31.65	7.41	3.99	0.87	3.17	3.24	6.92
Simulation box SF	33	6	4	0	4	4	12
Simulation box LAD	30	4	1	0	1	2	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SF	Starter	Landen Roupp	5.10	1	4	2	1	3.47	1.17	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Joel Peguero	1.20	0	0	0	1	3.75	1.22	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Caleb Kilian	1.10	0	2	1	0	3.37	1.36	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Keaton Winn	0.20	0	1	1	0	3.26	1.09	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Matt Gage	0.20	0	2	0	0	2.52	1.16	-
Home LAD	Starter	Emmet Sheehan	4.10	0	4	2	1	4.06	1.25	True
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Kyle Hurt	1.20	0	2	0	0	2.96	1.12	True
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Tanner Scott	1.10	0	2	1	0	2.87	1.00	True
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Jack Dreyer	1	0	2	0	1	2.87	1.14	True
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Alex Vesia	0.20	4	2	3	2	5.15	1.35	True
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Blake Treinen	0.20	0	0	0	0	4.00	1.31	-

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SF

Casey Schmitt (669477) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 35

All-history rows before 20260514: 35

System season_avg: 0.2850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2846

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	4.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.285	0.000	0.215	0.500
predicted_BB	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.057	0.000	0.943	2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.000	0.162	0.500
predicted_R	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	0.000	0.500
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.171	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.327	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	-0.092
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.738	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.194	0.022
predicted_H	0.782	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.132	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000
predicted_R	0.514	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.000
predicted_SO	0.823	0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.2432	0.3000	0.4054	0.2432	0.0541	0.1081	0.0541	0.2432
season	0.20	35	-	130.000	37.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	17.000	6.000	28.000	0.2846	0.3380	0.5000	0.2846	0.0461	0.1385	0.0461	0.2154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7560
predicted_AVG	0.2185
predicted_BB	0.2100
predicted_H	0.8210
predicted_HBP	0.1320
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_OBP	0.2842
predicted_R	0.5340
predicted_RBI	0.2850
predicted_SLG	0.3271
predicted_SO	0.8390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.0690	0.1368	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0070	0.0163	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.7560	3.7382	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2185	0.2183	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1710	0.2100	0.1935	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8210	0.7824	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1320	0.1320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1080	0.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2842	0.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.5340	0.5137	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2850	0.2702	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3270	0.3271	0.3271	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8390	0.8225	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.285

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B-1B
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669477
playerID	669477
playerName	Casey Schmitt
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 42

All-history rows before 20260514: 42

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.071	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.071	4.000	-1.071	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.250	-0.222	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	1.000	-0.905	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.253	0.250	-0.003	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.345	0.250	-0.345	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.262	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.262	2.000	-1.262	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.071	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.374	-
predicted_SO	1.262	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-0.043
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.191	0.120
predicted_AVG	0.300	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.101	-0.042
predicted_H	1.174	0.154
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.000
predicted_R	0.328	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.583	0.073
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.184	-0.078

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.071

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.3478	0.3478	0.3913	0.3478	0.0000	0.2174	0.0000	0.2609
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	13.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	11.000	0.3095	0.3095	0.3571	0.3095	0.0000	0.1191	0.0000	0.2619
season	0.20	42	-	171.000	38.000	12.000	3.000	11.000	15.000	6.000	53.000	0.2222	0.2528	0.3450	0.2222	0.0175	0.0643	0.0351	0.3099

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.2740
predicted_AVG	0.2999
predicted_BB	0.0720
predicted_H	1.2820
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.3139
predicted_R	0.3080
predicted_RBI	0.6340
predicted_SLG	0.3736
predicted_SO	1.1300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2130	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0710	4.2740	4.1906	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.2999	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.0720	0.1012	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.2820	1.1743	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3139	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3080	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.6340	0.5830	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3740	0.3736	0.3738	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2620	1.1300	1.1842	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Heliot Ramos (671218) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2710

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.875	3.000	0.125	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.000	-0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.225	1.000	-0.225	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.050	0.000	-1.050	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.250	-0.309	-0.250
predicted_R	0.475	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.538	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_SO	1.125	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	0.000	1.875	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.225	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.475	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.538	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.389	0.089
predicted_3B	0.031	0.006
predicted_AB	3.918	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000
predicted_BB	0.326	0.101
predicted_H	1.091	0.121
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.675	0.200
predicted_RBI	0.561	0.061
predicted_SLG	0.538	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.885	-0.240

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.875

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	0.3500	0.4348	0.6500	0.3500	0.0500	0.2000	0.1500	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.5250	0.2750	0.0250	0.1250	0.0750	0.2000
season	0.20	40	-	155.000	42.000	12.000	1.000	4.000	19.000	19.000	9.000	45.000	0.2710	0.3091	0.4387	0.2710	0.0258	0.1226	0.0581	0.2903

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4520
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.9480
predicted_AVG	0.2981
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_H	1.1770
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.3613
predicted_R	0.8170
predicted_RBI	0.6040
predicted_SLG	0.5379
predicted_SO	0.7150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.4520	0.3889	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0360	0.0314	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8750	3.9480	3.9177	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2981	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2250	0.3970	0.3256	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.1770	1.0911	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1410	0.1323	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3613	0.3612	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4750	0.8170	0.6751	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.6040	0.5608	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5380	0.5379	0.5379	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	0.7150	0.8851	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	671218
playerID	671218
playerName	Heliot Ramos
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SF
teamID	24

Jung Hoo Lee (808982) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 42

All-history rows before 20260514: 42

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2671

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	0.762	1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	4.000	1.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.000	-0.067	0.200
predicted_BB	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.024	0.000	-0.024	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.000	-0.112	0.200
predicted_R	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	0.000	0.595	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	0.000	1.690	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.000	0.021	0.400
predicted_SO	0.524	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.524	0.000	0.476	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.238	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	0.524	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	0.022
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.010
predicted_AB	4.192	0.359
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.172	-0.066
predicted_H	0.951	0.131
predicted_HBP	0.108	-
predicted_HR	0.026	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.000
predicted_R	0.398	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.336	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000
predicted_SO	0.595	0.071

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	25.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2400	0.2692	0.3200	0.2400	0.0000	0.0800	0.0000	0.1600
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2045	0.2391	0.2500	0.2046	0.0000	0.0682	0.0227	0.0909
season	0.20	42	-	161.000	43.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	13.000	17.000	10.000	22.000	0.2671	0.3121	0.3789	0.2671	0.0124	0.0808	0.0621	0.1366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2750
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.4440
predicted_AVG	0.2346
predicted_BB	0.1260
predicted_H	1.0430
predicted_HBP	0.1080
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2729
predicted_R	0.3930
predicted_RBI	0.3690
predicted_SLG	0.3201
predicted_SO	0.6450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.2750	0.2597	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0070	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	4.4440	4.1920	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2346	0.2348	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2380	0.1260	0.1722	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.0430	0.9510	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1080	0.1080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0300	0.0259	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2729	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.3930	0.3979	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3690	0.3364	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3201	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5240	0.6450	0.5951	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	808982
playerID	808982
playerName	Jung Hoo Lee
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SF
teamID	24

Luis Arraez (650333) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.3100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3101

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3040

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	0.825	1.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.950	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.950	3.000	0.050	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.310	0.667	0.190	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.225	2.000	0.775	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.750	0.153	-0.250
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.667	0.370	0.083
predicted_SO	0.175	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.175	0.000	0.825	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.950	-
predicted_AVG	0.295	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	0.175	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	0.002
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.023
predicted_AB	4.002	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.000
predicted_BB	0.398	0.148
predicted_H	1.137	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.373	-0.000
predicted_R	0.427	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.000
predicted_SO	0.231	0.056

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.950

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	0.2857	0.4000	0.2857	0.2857	0.0476	0.1905	0.0476
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	0.3250	0.3864	0.4250	0.3250	0.0750	0.1000	0.0250
season	0.20	40	-	158.000	49.000	7.000	2.000	14.000	16.000	10.000	7.000	0.3101	0.3471	0.3797	0.3101	0.0886	0.0633	0.0443

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	4.0380
predicted_AVG	0.2953
predicted_BB	0.5030
predicted_H	1.1920
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.3728
predicted_R	0.4460
predicted_RBI	0.3000
predicted_SLG	0.3594
predicted_SO	0.2700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.1790	0.1773	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0110	0.0271	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9500	4.0380	4.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2950	0.2953	0.2952	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.5030	0.3984	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.1920	1.1374	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0194	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3728	0.3729	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4460	0.4270	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3000	0.2876	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3594	0.3592	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1750	0.2700	0.2307	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	650333
playerID	650333
playerName	Luis Arraez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 43

All-history rows before 20260514: 43

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2469

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.209	1.000	-0.209	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	4.000	-0.767	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.342	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.500	-0.247	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.279	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.279	0.000	0.721	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.930	2.000	-0.930	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.413	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.500	-0.045	-0.250
predicted_R	0.372	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.372	0.000	-0.372	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.631	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.395	0.750	-0.395	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.256	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.256	2.000	0.744	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.767	-
predicted_AVG	0.342	-
predicted_BB	0.279	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.413	-
predicted_R	0.372	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.631	-
predicted_SO	1.256	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.331	0.122
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.667	-0.100
predicted_AVG	0.342	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.393	0.114
predicted_H	1.192	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.200	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.413	-0.000
predicted_R	0.559	0.187
predicted_RBI	0.462	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.631	0.000
predicted_SO	1.265	0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.317 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.3889	0.4762	0.7222	0.3889	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	13.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	5.000	13.000	0.3824	0.4500	0.7647	0.3824	0.0882	0.1765	0.1471	0.3824
season	0.20	43	-	162.000	40.000	9.000	5.000	18.000	16.000	12.000	54.000	0.2469	0.2955	0.3951	0.2469	0.0309	0.1111	0.0741	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4160
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5970
predicted_AVG	0.3416
predicted_BB	0.4730
predicted_H	1.2290
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2070
predicted_OBP	0.4126
predicted_R	0.6900
predicted_RBI	0.4770
predicted_SLG	0.6313
predicted_SO	1.2720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2090	0.4160	0.3308	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7670	3.5970	3.6670	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3420	0.3416	0.3418	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2790	0.4730	0.3932	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.2290	1.1924	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2070	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4130	0.4126	0.4128	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3720	0.6900	0.5591	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4770	0.4618	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6310	0.6313	0.6312	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2560	1.2720	1.2654	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Chapman (656305) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2293

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	4.000	0.171	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.250	-0.229	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.390	0.000	-0.390	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.878	1.000	-0.878	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.250	-0.309	-0.250
predicted_R	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.390	0.000	-0.390	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.250	-0.312	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.024	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.024	2.000	0.976	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.829	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.390	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.390	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.272	-
predicted_SO	1.024	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	0.045
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.877	0.048
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.000
predicted_BB	0.349	-0.041
predicted_H	0.658	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.000
predicted_R	0.245	-0.145
predicted_RBI	0.316	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.000
predicted_SO	1.097	0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.829

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.3000	0.2000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	13.000	0.1026	0.1667	0.1538	0.1026	0.0000	0.0513	0.0513	0.3333
season	0.20	41	-	157.000	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	16.000	16.000	42.000	0.2293	0.3086	0.3121	0.2293	0.0064	0.0892	0.1019	0.2675

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2710
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.9110
predicted_AVG	0.1823
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_H	0.7130
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.2641
predicted_R	0.1430
predicted_RBI	0.3410
predicted_SLG	0.2722
predicted_SO	1.1480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.2710	0.2397	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8290	3.9110	3.8772	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1823	0.1822	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3900	0.3210	0.3494	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7130	0.6582	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0218	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2641	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3900	0.1430	0.2447	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3410	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2720	0.2722	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0240	1.1480	1.0969	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656305
playerID	656305
playerName	Matt Chapman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Eric Haase (606992) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 5

All-history rows before 20260514: 5

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	4.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.500	-0.333	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.200	2.000	-1.200	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.400	2.000	-0.400	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	-0.083	-0.250
predicted_R	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.538	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.778	2.000	-0.778	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.800	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.538	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.348	-0.052
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.647	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000
predicted_BB	0.067	0.067
predicted_H	0.890	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.199	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.729	-0.071
predicted_RBI	0.514	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.538	0.000
predicted_SO	0.814	0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.7778	0.3333	0.1111	0.2222	0.2222
last_10	0.35	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.7778	0.3333	0.1111	0.2222	0.2222
season	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.7778	0.3333	0.1111	0.2222	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2650
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.7230
predicted_AVG	0.2774
predicted_BB	0.1740
predicted_H	1.0330
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.2300
predicted_OBP	0.3158
predicted_R	0.6150
predicted_RBI	0.5990
predicted_SLG	0.5381
predicted_SO	0.8350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.2650	0.3479	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.7230	3.6475	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2774	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1740	0.0672	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	1.0330	0.8899	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2300	0.1993	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3158	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	0.6150	0.7286	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5990	0.5136	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5380	0.5381	0.5380	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8350	0.8135	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	606992
playerID	606992
playerName	Eric Haase
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Drew Gilbert (687551) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2344

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.050	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.050	0.000	0.950	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	3.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.099	0.333
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.000	0.200	0.500
predicted_R	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.268	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.000	0.323	0.667
predicted_SO	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.268	-
predicted_SO	0.650	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.352	0.152
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.287	0.037
predicted_H	0.615	0.095
predicted_HBP	0.106	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.000
predicted_R	0.373	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.341	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.268	0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.2647	0.2353	0.0000	0.0882	0.0882	0.1765
season	0.20	20	-	64.000	15.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	0.2344	0.3000	0.3438	0.2344	0.0312	0.1094	0.0781	0.2031

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4910
predicted_AVG	0.2007
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_H	0.7010
predicted_HBP	0.1060
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.2897
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.3880
predicted_SLG	0.2683
predicted_SO	0.7450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0500	0.0820	0.0667	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.4910	3.3523	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2007	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3210	0.2872	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.7010	0.6147	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1060	0.1060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2897	0.2898	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.3950	0.3735	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3880	0.3413	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2680	0.2683	0.2682	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6500	0.7450	0.6997	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	687551
playerID	687551
playerName	Drew Gilbert
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Landen Roupp (694738) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.375	3.000	-1.375	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.875	1.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	3.625	3.000	-1.625	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.312	4.000	-0.213	1.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	6.375	8.000	-2.375	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	9.000	15.000	14.000	33.000	1.000	3.0000	1.0741	0.3333	0.5556	0.5185	1.2222	0.0370
last_10	0.35	8	43.200	15.000	29.000	19.000	51.000	1.000	3.0916	1.0992	0.3435	0.6641	0.4351	1.1679	0.0229
season	0.20	8	43.200	15.000	29.000	19.000	51.000	1.000	3.0916	1.0992	0.3435	0.6641	0.4351	1.1679	0.0229

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3950
predicted_ER	2.0580
predicted_ERA	3.4726
predicted_H	3.8630
predicted_HR	0.3710
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.9190
predicted_WHIP	1.1733

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.3950	1.6801	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.0580	1.5158	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4726	3.4726	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	3.8630	2.9082	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3710	0.1809	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.9190	4.9355	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1733	1.1733	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	4
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.09
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	694738
playerID	694738
playerName	Landen Roupp
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Joel Peguero (666711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 5

All-history rows before 20260514: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.880	1.100	0.320	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.3750	0.3750	0.1875
last_10	0.35	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.3750	0.3750	0.1875
season	0.20	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.3750	0.3750	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5880
predicted_ER	0.6450
predicted_ERA	3.7462
predicted_H	1.3030
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.2760
predicted_WHIP	1.2198

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5880	0.8758	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6450	0.1944	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7462	3.7462	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3030	0.3927	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1650	0.0497	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2760	0.3845	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2198	1.2198	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666711
playerID	666711
playerName	Joel Peguero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.944	1.100	0.156	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.056	1.000	0.944	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	3.3750	1.6875	0.3750	0.7500	0.9375	0.5625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	12.100	2.000	7.000	8.000	9.000	1.000	1.4595	1.2162	0.1622	0.5676	0.6486	0.7297	0.0811
season	0.20	18	19.100	3.000	9.000	12.000	19.000	2.000	1.3966	1.0862	0.1552	0.4655	0.6207	0.9828	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6830
predicted_ER	0.4640
predicted_ERA	3.3687
predicted_H	0.9970
predicted_HR	0.1620
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0510
predicted_WHIP	1.3554

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6830	0.2807	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4640	0.1907	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3687	3.3687	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9970	0.9988	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1620	0.0666	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0510	1.6100	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3554	1.3554	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 19

All-history rows before 20260514: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.474	1.000	0.526	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.916	1.000	-0.716	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	1.000	0.211	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.9286	0.6429	0.2143	0.4286	0.2143	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	1.8000	0.9000	0.2000	0.5000	0.4000	0.4000
season	0.20	19	18.100	5.000	9.000	6.000	15.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.4909	0.3273	0.8182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_ER	0.2920
predicted_ERA	3.2582
predicted_H	0.5970
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6160
predicted_WHIP	1.0871

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2800	0.1135	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2920	0.1184	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2582	3.2582	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5970	0.8366	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0243	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6160	0.8443	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0871	1.0871	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Gage (657424) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 21

All-history rows before 20260514: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.624	0.100	-0.424	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.571	1.000	1.429	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.5000	0.2500	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.1250	0.0000	0.5000	0.6250	0.6250	0.0000
season	0.20	21	18.000	2.000	9.000	10.000	12.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0556	0.1111	0.5000	0.5556	0.6667	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_ER	0.1950
predicted_ERA	2.5221
predicted_H	0.5250
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5870
predicted_WHIP	1.1622

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2820	0.1138	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1950	0.0787	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5221	2.5221	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5250	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0550	0.0222	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.5870	1.4297	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1622	1.1622	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	657424
playerID	657424
playerName	Matt Gage
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Home Team: LAD

Kyle Tucker (663656) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2614

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1040

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.293	2.000	-0.293	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.732	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.732	4.000	0.268	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.311	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.500	-0.261	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.585	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.585	0.000	-0.585	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	2.000	-0.976	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.462	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.500	-0.361	-0.500
predicted_R	0.707	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.707	1.000	-0.707	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.463	0.000	-0.463	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.540	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.418	1.000	-0.418	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.854	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.854	0.000	2.146	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.732	-
predicted_AVG	0.311	-
predicted_BB	0.585	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.462	-
predicted_R	0.707	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.540	-
predicted_SO	0.854	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.433	0.140
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.341	-0.392
predicted_AVG	0.311	0.000
predicted_BB	0.718	0.133
predicted_H	0.994	-0.056
predicted_HBP	0.134	-
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.462	0.000
predicted_R	0.676	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.245	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.540	0.000
predicted_SO	0.698	-0.156

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	0.3333	0.5556	0.5833	0.3333	0.0000	0.0000	0.4167	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	11.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	0.3438	0.4750	0.6250	0.3438	0.0312	0.1250	0.2188	0.1875
season	0.20	41	-	153.000	40.000	12.000	4.000	19.000	29.000	24.000	35.000	0.2614	0.3611	0.4183	0.2614	0.0261	0.1242	0.1569	0.2288

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5300
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.0680
predicted_AVG	0.3114
predicted_BB	0.8100
predicted_H	0.9550
predicted_HBP	0.1340
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.4623
predicted_R	0.6540
predicted_RBI	0.2350
predicted_SLG	0.5405
predicted_SO	0.5890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2930	0.5300	0.4327	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7320	3.0680	3.3405	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3110	0.3114	0.3112	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5850	0.8100	0.7177	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	0.9550	0.9940	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1340	0.1340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0570	0.0582	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4620	0.4623	0.4622	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7070	0.6540	0.6757	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2350	0.2453	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5400	0.5405	0.5403	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8540	0.5890	0.6977	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	663656
playerID	663656
playerName	Kyle Tucker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Freddie Freeman (518692) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2767

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2660

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.878	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.878	3.000	0.122	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.333	0.223	0.167
predicted_BB	0.415	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.415	1.000	-0.415	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.073	1.000	0.927	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.500	0.150	0.000
predicted_R	0.366	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.434	0.333	0.066	0.167
predicted_SO	0.537	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.537	0.000	-0.537	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.268	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.878	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.415	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.366	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.413	-
predicted_SO	0.537	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.268	0.000
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.605	-0.273
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000
predicted_BB	0.539	0.124
predicted_H	0.965	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.000
predicted_R	0.324	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.285	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000
predicted_SO	0.506	-0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.878

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.0000	0.2667	0.0667
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	0.3143	0.4146	0.5143	0.3143	0.0286	0.1429	0.1714	0.2000
season	0.20	41	-	159.000	44.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	20.000	15.000	17.000	22.000	0.2767	0.3503	0.4340	0.2767	0.0252	0.1258	0.1069	0.1384

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2680
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4150
predicted_AVG	0.2794
predicted_BB	0.6250
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.3903
predicted_R	0.2950
predicted_RBI	0.2810
predicted_SLG	0.4135
predicted_SO	0.4840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2680	0.2680	0.2680	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0050	0.0128	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8780	3.4150	3.6054	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2794	0.2792	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4150	0.6250	0.5386	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9540	0.9647	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0600	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3903	0.3902	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3660	0.2950	0.3242	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2810	0.2847	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4130	0.4135	0.4133	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5370	0.4840	0.5058	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	518692
playerID	518692
playerName	Freddie Freeman
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 42

All-history rows before 20260514: 42

System season_avg: 0.3140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3141

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	3.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_BB	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.262	1.000	-0.262	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	0.000	-1.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.250	-0.363	-0.250
predicted_R	0.548	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.548	0.000	0.452	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.474	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_SO	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.810	1.000	-0.810	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.262	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.548	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.474	-
predicted_SO	0.810	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-0.061
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.666	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.287	0.025
predicted_H	0.850	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.241	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.000
predicted_R	0.470	-0.078
predicted_RBI	0.603	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.474	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.696	-0.114

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.2895	0.3415	0.6316	0.2895	0.1053	0.2368	0.0526	0.1053
season	0.20	42	-	156.000	49.000	8.000	9.000	35.000	23.000	11.000	34.000	0.3141	0.3626	0.5385	0.3141	0.0577	0.2244	0.0705	0.2180

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0860
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6320
predicted_AVG	0.2436
predicted_BB	0.3050
predicted_H	0.8850
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.2490
predicted_OBP	0.3238
predicted_R	0.4150
predicted_RBI	0.6260
predicted_SLG	0.4736
predicted_SO	0.6160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.0860	0.1290	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.6320	3.6659	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2436	0.2438	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2620	0.3050	0.2872	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8850	0.8499	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2490	0.2412	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3238	0.3239	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5480	0.4150	0.4699	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6260	0.6029	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4740	0.4736	0.4738	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8100	0.6160	0.6961	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.314

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Max Muncy (571970) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 39

All-history rows before 20260514: 39

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2741

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.462	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.462	4.000	0.538	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.000	-0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.513	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.949	0.000	-0.949	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_R	0.692	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.462	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.513	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.692	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.476	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.435	-0.027
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.379	-0.134
predicted_H	0.693	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.262	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.000
predicted_R	0.559	-0.133
predicted_RBI	0.562	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.476	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.052	0.052

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.076

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.5294	0.1765	0.1177	0.2353	0.0000	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	11.000	0.2188	0.3243	0.4062	0.2188	0.0625	0.1562	0.1562	0.3438
season	0.20	39	-	135.000	37.000	5.000	11.000	17.000	27.000	20.000	39.000	0.2741	0.3677	0.5556	0.2741	0.0815	0.1259	0.1482	0.2889

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4160
predicted_AVG	0.2162
predicted_BB	0.2830
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2780
predicted_OBP	0.2728
predicted_R	0.4640
predicted_RBI	0.6000
predicted_SLG	0.4758
predicted_SO	1.0890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.0470	0.0809	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4620	3.4160	3.4353	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2162	0.2161	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5130	0.2830	0.3793	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7380	0.6928	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2780	0.2621	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2728	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6920	0.4640	0.5594	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.6000	0.5623	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4760	0.4758	0.4759	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0890	1.0518	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	571970
playerID	571970
playerName	Max Muncy
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Hyeseong Kim (808975) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 26

All-history rows before 20260514: 26

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2658

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.038	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.038	4.000	-0.038	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.000	-0.266	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.808	0.000	-0.808	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.000	-0.330	0.000
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.295	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.354	0.000	-0.354	0.000
predicted_SO	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	1.000	0.231	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.038	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.242	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.295	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.074	0.036
predicted_AB	3.246	0.208
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.038
predicted_H	0.560	0.100
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.028	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.000
predicted_R	0.353	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.161	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.295	0.000
predicted_SO	0.887	0.118

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.2353	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.1818	0.2286	0.2424	0.1818	0.0000	0.0303	0.0606	0.2121
season	0.20	26	-	79.000	21.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	10.000	8.000	20.000	0.2658	0.3295	0.3544	0.2658	0.0127	0.1013	0.1013	0.2532

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0540
predicted_3B	0.1040
predicted_AB	3.4210
predicted_AVG	0.1886
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_H	0.6450
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.2424
predicted_R	0.3270
predicted_RBI	0.1870
predicted_SLG	0.2953
predicted_SO	0.9870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.0540	0.0645	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.1040	0.0738	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0380	3.4210	3.2458	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1886	0.1888	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.2380	0.2700	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.6450	0.5604	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0340	0.0276	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2420	0.2424	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.3270	0.3535	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1870	0.1609	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2950	0.2953	0.2952	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.9870	0.8873	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	808975
playerID	808975
playerName	Hyeseong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Smith (669257) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 30

All-history rows before 20260514: 30

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2564

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.900	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.900	4.000	-0.900	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.367	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.367	0.000	0.633	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.000	-0.065	0.250
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.567	0.000	-0.567	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.292	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_SO	0.733	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.733	1.000	0.267	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.367	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.292	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.736	-0.164
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.372	0.005
predicted_H	0.828	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.038	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.273	-0.127
predicted_RBI	0.332	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.292	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.756	0.023

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.900

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2500	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	0.2778	0.3415	0.3333	0.2778	0.0000	0.0833	0.1111	0.1944
season	0.20	30	-	117.000	30.000	3.000	3.000	17.000	12.000	11.000	22.000	0.2564	0.3154	0.3590	0.2564	0.0256	0.1453	0.0940	0.1880

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1040
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6130
predicted_AVG	0.2309
predicted_BB	0.3750
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.2970
predicted_R	0.1770
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.2916
predicted_SO	0.7740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1040	0.1023	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9000	3.6130	3.7362	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2309	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3670	0.3750	0.3716	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8340	0.8280	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0370	0.0383	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2970	0.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.1770	0.2727	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3330	0.3317	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2920	0.2916	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	0.7740	0.7564	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669257
playerID	669257
playerName	Will Smith
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Miguel Rojas (500743) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 15

All-history rows before 20260514: 15

System season_avg: 0.3120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3125

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.429	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	4.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.312	0.500	-0.312	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.500	-0.327	-0.500
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.438	0.500	-0.438	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.429	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.071	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.362	-
predicted_SO	0.357	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.518	0.089
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.102	0.031
predicted_H	0.744	0.124
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000
predicted_R	0.313	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.379	0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.2941	0.3143	0.4412	0.2941	0.0294	0.1177	0.0294	0.0588
season	0.20	14	-	48.000	15.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.3125	0.3265	0.4375	0.3125	0.0208	0.0833	0.0208	0.1042

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6100
predicted_AVG	0.2418
predicted_BB	0.1350
predicted_H	0.8730
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_OBP	0.2712
predicted_R	0.3420
predicted_RBI	0.4120
predicted_SLG	0.3618
predicted_SO	0.4020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.1950	0.2047	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4290	3.6100	3.5176	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2418	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0710	0.1350	0.1023	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.8730	0.7439	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0760	0.0627	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2712	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.3420	0.3134	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.4120	0.3497	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3620	0.3618	0.3619	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3570	0.4020	0.3790	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.312

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	500743
playerID	500743
playerName	Miguel Rojas
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Dalton Rushing (687221) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

System season_avg: 0.3170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3167

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.529	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.529	4.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.317	0.000	-0.067	0.250
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.118	0.000	-0.118	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.000	-0.129	0.250
predicted_R	0.765	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.765	0.000	-0.765	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.941	0.000	-0.941	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.700	0.000	-0.200	0.500
predicted_SO	0.941	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.941	1.000	0.059	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.529	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.765	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.338	-
predicted_SO	0.941	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.568	0.039
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.181	0.005
predicted_H	0.777	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.147	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.572	-0.193
predicted_RBI	0.395	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.338	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.888	-0.053

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2059	0.3077	0.2059	0.2059	0.0000	0.1177	0.0882	0.2353
season	0.20	17	-	60.000	19.000	2.000	7.000	16.000	13.000	3.000	16.000	0.3167	0.3788	0.7000	0.3167	0.1167	0.2667	0.0500	0.2667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6040
predicted_AVG	0.2381
predicted_BB	0.1850
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HBP	0.1470
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_OBP	0.3030
predicted_R	0.3930
predicted_RBI	0.4360
predicted_SLG	0.3378
predicted_SO	0.8380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0700	0.0931	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5290	3.6040	3.5678	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2381	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.1850	0.1807	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8580	0.7770	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1470	0.1470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0940	0.0873	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3030	0.3030	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7650	0.3930	0.5723	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4360	0.3945	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3380	0.3378	0.3379	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9410	0.8380	0.8876	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.317

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	687221
playerID	687221
playerName	Dalton Rushing
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Teoscar Hernández (606192) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 38

All-history rows before 20260514: 38

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2482

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1990

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	0.868	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.605	4.000	-1.605	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.500	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.395	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.395	0.000	0.605	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.895	2.000	0.105	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.500	0.425	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.500	0.628	0.500
predicted_SO	1.158	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.158	0.000	-1.158	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.605	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.395	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	1.158	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.534	-0.071
predicted_AVG	0.304	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.389	-0.006
predicted_H	1.000	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.119	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.390	-0.000
predicted_R	0.444	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.241	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.056	-0.102

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.3750	0.4737	0.4375	0.3750	0.0000	0.0625	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	12.000	0.2778	0.3659	0.3056	0.2778	0.0000	0.0278	0.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	38	-	137.000	34.000	5.000	4.000	18.000	19.000	15.000	44.000	0.2482	0.3247	0.3723	0.2482	0.0292	0.1314	0.1095	0.3212

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1580
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4820
predicted_AVG	0.3039
predicted_BB	0.3840
predicted_H	1.0580
predicted_HBP	0.1190
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.3897
predicted_R	0.4040
predicted_RBI	0.2570
predicted_SLG	0.3809
predicted_SO	0.9830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.1580	0.1471	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6050	3.4820	3.5335	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3039	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3950	0.3840	0.3886	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.0580	1.0002	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1190	0.1190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3897	0.3898	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4040	0.4442	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2570	0.2415	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3809	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1580	0.9830	1.0563	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	606192
playerID	606192
playerName	Teoscar Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAD
teamID	14

Emmet Sheehan (686218) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 7

All-history rows before 20260514: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.429	1.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	2.714	1.000	-2.714	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	5.429	6.000	-3.429	-4.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.829	4.200	-0.729	-0.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	6.143	7.000	-2.143	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.200	11.000	26.000	5.000	35.000	4.000	3.7125	1.1625	0.4125	0.9750	0.1875	1.3125	0.1500
last_10	0.35	7	35.200	19.000	38.000	10.000	43.000	6.000	4.7944	1.3458	0.5327	1.0654	0.2804	1.2056	0.1682
season	0.20	7	35.200	19.000	38.000	10.000	43.000	6.000	4.7944	1.3458	0.5327	1.0654	0.2804	1.2056	0.1682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3670
predicted_ER	2.1960
predicted_ERA	4.0580
predicted_H	4.7370
predicted_HR	0.6990
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.6000
predicted_WHIP	1.2532

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.3670	1.1739	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.1960	1.0408	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0580	4.0580	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.7370	3.2972	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6990	0.3313	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.6000	4.7583	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2532	1.2532	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	4
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	73

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.79
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	64
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	686218
playerID	686218
playerName	Emmet Sheehan
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Hurt (669165) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 11

All-history rows before 20260514: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.200	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.455	2.000	0.545	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.6000	0.2000	1.8000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	13.000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.4000	0.1000	1.3000
season	0.20	11	11.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	16.000	0.8182	0.6364	0.0909	0.5454	0.0909	1.4546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4510
predicted_ER	0.4820
predicted_ERA	2.9606
predicted_H	1.1880
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6680
predicted_WHIP	1.1196

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4510	0.1605	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4820	0.1716	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9606	2.9606	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1880	0.4229	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1310	0.0466	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.6680	1.8818	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1196	1.1196	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.82
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669165
playerID	669165
playerName	Kyle Hurt
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 19

All-history rows before 20260514: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.474	1.000	0.526	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.863	1.000	0.237	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.842	0.000	1.158	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	19	17.100	3.000	9.000	2.000	16.000	2.000	1.5577	0.6346	0.1731	0.5192	0.1154	0.9231	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_ER	0.3820
predicted_ERA	2.8699
predicted_H	0.8750
predicted_HR	0.1200
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0870
predicted_WHIP	0.9952

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3160	0.1263	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3820	0.1527	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8699	2.8699	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8750	0.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1200	0.0480	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0870	1.6350	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9952	0.9952	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.56
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Jack Dreyer (676263) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 19

All-history rows before 20260514: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.263	0.000	0.737	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.789	1.000	-0.789	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.989	1.000	0.011	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	2.000	0.842	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	0.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7895	0.0000	0.7895	0.0000	0.7895	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	11.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	2.3824	1.0588	0.2647	0.9706	0.0882	0.9706	0.0882
season	0.20	19	20.200	5.000	15.000	5.000	22.000	1.000	2.1774	0.9677	0.2419	0.7258	0.2419	1.0645	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2610
predicted_ER	0.3400
predicted_ERA	2.8691
predicted_H	0.9550
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9980
predicted_WHIP	1.1391

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2610	0.6911	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3400	0.1421	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8691	2.8691	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9550	0.3992	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9980	1.5812	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1391	1.1391	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.18
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	676263
playerID	676263
playerName	Jack Dreyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Vesia (681911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	1.000	1.588	1.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	0.294	3.000	3.706	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.412	3.000	2.588	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.688	0.100	-0.488	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.0000	1.6667	1.0000	1.0000	0.6667	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	6.4286	1.2857	0.7143	0.7143	0.5714	1.5714
season	0.20	17	13.100	5.000	7.000	7.000	17.000	3.3750	1.0500	0.3750	0.5250	0.5250	1.2750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3050
predicted_ER	0.3810
predicted_ERA	5.1491
predicted_H	0.5950
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7070
predicted_WHIP	1.3508

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3050	1.3665	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	0.3810	2.6473	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1491	5.1491	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.5950	2.1011	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0560	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7070	1.5167	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3508	1.3508	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	4
ER	4
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	35

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	681911
playerID	681911
playerName	Alex Vesia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Blake Treinen (595014) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 16

All-history rows before 20260514: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.938	2.000	-0.938	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.675	0.200	-0.475	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	4.5000	1.2500	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3750	0.3750	1.1250	0.2500	1.1250	0.1250
season	0.20	15	12.200	3.000	11.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	2.1316	1.1842	0.2368	0.8684	0.3158	0.9474	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_ER	0.3060
predicted_ERA	3.9983
predicted_H	0.6650
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6510
predicted_WHIP	1.3064

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2350	0.0867	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3060	0.1129	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9983	3.9983	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6650	0.2453	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0269	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6510	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3064	1.3064	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.26
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	595014
playerID	595014
playerName	Blake Treinen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

20260514_STL@OAK

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "STL 5 - 3 OAK", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "STL 5 - 3 OAK", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "STL 5 - 3 OAK", "winner": "STL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "STL 6 - 2 OAK", "winner": "STL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	STL 5 - 3 OAK	STL	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	STL 6 - 2 OAK	STL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away STL	6-4	0.600	3.70	2.90	8	1W	average	strong
Home OAK	4-6	0.400	4.90	5.20	-3	2L	average	weak

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-13	STL @ OAK	6 - 4	STL	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target STL	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target OAK	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized STL	35	9	2	0	3	1	8
Player finalized OAK	34	9	4	0	4	3	8
Player model fractional STL	33.52	8.00	4.04	0.78	3.72	2.97	7.73
Player model fractional OAK	32.22	7.86	4.37	1.04	4.50	4.38	7.23
Simulation box STL	36	10	6	2	6	6	7
Simulation box OAK	31	4	2	1	2	2	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away STL	Starter	Michael McGreevy	4.20	1	5	3	2	2.96	1.06	True
Away STL	Middle Reliever	George Soriano	1.20	1	1	1	0	3.40	1.35	True
Away STL	Middle Reliever	Gordon Graceffo	1.10	0	2	0	0	3.97	1.27	-
Away STL	Middle Reliever	Riley O'Brien	1.10	0	0	0	0	4.97	1.36	True
Away STL	Middle Reliever	Ryne Stanek	1	0	0	0	0	3.55	1.23	True
Away STL	Middle Reliever	JoJo Romero	0.10	0	1	0	0	3.69	1.11	True
Home OAK	Starter	Jacob Lopez	2.20	4	3	7	1	5.04	1.48	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Hogan Harris	1.10	1	0	1	2	3.63	1.77	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Scott Barlow	1.10	0	1	0	1	3.45	0.95	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Justin Sterner	1	0	1	0	1	4.05	1.19	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Mark Leiter Jr.	1	1	0	1	1	6.59	1.52	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Joel Kuhnel	0.20	0	0	0	0	3.96	1.21	True
Home OAK	Reliever	Luis Medina	-	-	-	-	-	2.95	1.13	-

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: STL

José Fermin (820862) · BATTER · 1B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 0

All-history rows before 20260514: 0

System season_avg: 0.2439

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2439

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.011	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.686	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.442	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.932	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.497	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.438	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.894	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.011	-
predicted_AB	3.686	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.442	-
predicted_H	0.932	-
predicted_HR	0.154	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.497	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.438	-
predicted_SO	0.894	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.012	0.001
predicted_AB	3.711	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.406	-0.036
predicted_H	0.931	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.146	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.327	-0.006
predicted_R	0.496	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.532	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.428	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.885	-0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7970
predicted_AVG	0.2439
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3053
predicted_R	0.4950
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.3943
predicted_SO	0.8560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1790	0.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0110	0.0140	0.0117	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6860	3.7970	3.7113	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2439	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4420	0.2840	0.4061	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9320	0.9260	0.9306	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1540	0.1210	0.1465	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3053	0.3267	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4970	0.4950	0.4965	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.4710	0.5320	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4380	0.3943	0.4281	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8940	0.8560	0.8854	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Yohel Pozo (650968) · BATTER · DH · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 3

All-history rows before 20260514: 3

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.250	-0.167	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.167	0.250	-0.167	-0.250
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.250	-0.250	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.294	-0.039
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.950	-0.050
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.072	0.072
predicted_H	0.780	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.083	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.000
predicted_R	0.125	0.125
predicted_RBI	0.476	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	0.465	0.132

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.0833
last_10	0.35	3	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.0833
season	0.20	3	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2210
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.8550
predicted_AVG	0.2219
predicted_BB	0.2060
predicted_H	0.8550
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_OBP	0.2657
predicted_R	0.3590
predicted_RBI	0.5250
predicted_SLG	0.3531
predicted_SO	0.7120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2210	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8550	3.9495	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2219	0.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2060	0.0717	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8550	0.7800	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0880	0.0828	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2657	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3590	0.1250	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5250	0.4761	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3531	0.3530	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.7120	0.4650	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	650968
playerID	650968
playerName	Yohel Pozo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	STL
teamID	26

Nolan Gorman (669357) · BATTER · 3B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 36

All-history rows before 20260514: 36

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2214

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.639	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.639	3.000	0.361	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.333	0.029	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.417	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	1.000	0.583	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.806	1.000	0.194	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.500	0.105	-0.100
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.333	-0.094	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.222	0.000	-0.222	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.639	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.300	-
predicted_SO	1.222	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.613	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.444	0.027
predicted_H	0.721	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.358	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.341	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.300	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.305	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.4706
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	0.2432	0.3171	0.3784	0.2432	0.0270	0.1081	0.1081	0.3784
season	0.20	36	-	131.000	29.000	4.000	4.000	21.000	14.000	15.000	44.000	0.2214	0.2953	0.3435	0.2214	0.0305	0.1603	0.1145	0.3359

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1030
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5940
predicted_AVG	0.2147
predicted_BB	0.4640
predicted_H	0.7720
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.3051
predicted_R	0.3350
predicted_RBI	0.3630
predicted_SLG	0.2996
predicted_SO	1.3660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1030	0.1064	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6390	3.5940	3.6129	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2147	0.2148	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.4640	0.4442	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7720	0.7207	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0660	0.0635	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3051	0.3051	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.3350	0.3577	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3630	0.3407	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3000	0.2996	0.2998	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2220	1.3660	1.3054	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669357
playerID	669357
playerName	Nolan Gorman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	STL
teamID	26

Jordan Walker (691023) · BATTER · RF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2941

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.825	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.825	4.000	1.175	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.000	-0.094	0.200
predicted_BB	0.475	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.125	0.000	-0.125	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.275	0.000	0.725	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.000	-0.174	0.200
predicted_R	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.562	0.000	0.238	0.800
predicted_SO	1.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	2.000	-0.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.825	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.475	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.760	-0.065
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.528	0.053
predicted_H	0.774	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.197	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.000
predicted_R	0.712	-0.088
predicted_RBI	0.557	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	1.160	-0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.825

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.1579	0.1579	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	9.000	0.2286	0.3571	0.4571	0.2286	0.0571	0.1429	0.2000	0.2571
season	0.20	40	-	153.000	45.000	8.000	11.000	30.000	32.000	19.000	48.000	0.2941	0.3736	0.5621	0.2941	0.0719	0.1961	0.1242	0.3137

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1220
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7140
predicted_AVG	0.2149
predicted_BB	0.5660
predicted_H	0.7980
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_OBP	0.3199
predicted_R	0.6510
predicted_RBI	0.5760
predicted_SLG	0.4115
predicted_SO	1.1320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1220	0.1541	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8250	3.7140	3.7597	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2149	0.2149	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4750	0.5660	0.5285	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7980	0.7741	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2010	0.1965	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3199	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	0.6510	0.7124	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5760	0.5570	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4115	0.4113	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.1320	1.1600	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	691023
playerID	691023
playerName	Jordan Walker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	STL
teamID	26

JJ Wetherholt (802139) · BATTER · 2B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2516

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.878	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.878	4.000	0.122	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.500	-0.002	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.512	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.512	0.000	0.488	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	2.000	0.024	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.600	0.034	-0.200
predicted_R	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.780	0.000	0.220	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.537	0.000	-0.537	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.434	0.500	-0.184	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.780	0.000	0.220	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.878	-
predicted_AVG	0.284	-
predicted_BB	0.512	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.780	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.780	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.950	0.072
predicted_AVG	0.284	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.404	-0.108
predicted_H	1.080	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.254	-
predicted_HR	0.150	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.000
predicted_R	0.710	-0.071
predicted_RBI	0.615	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.415	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.759	-0.021

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.878

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4167	0.4762	0.3333	0.0476	0.1905	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	0.2564	0.3556	0.3333	0.2564	0.0256	0.1538	0.1026	0.1538
season	0.20	41	-	159.000	40.000	5.000	8.000	22.000	32.000	21.000	32.000	0.2516	0.3665	0.4340	0.2516	0.0503	0.1384	0.1321	0.2013

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9990
predicted_AVG	0.2838
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_H	1.1350
predicted_HBP	0.2540
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.3744
predicted_R	0.6610
predicted_RBI	0.6450
predicted_SLG	0.4146
predicted_SO	0.7440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.0470	0.0775	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8780	3.9990	3.9497	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2840	0.2838	0.2839	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5120	0.3300	0.4041	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1350	1.0800	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2540	0.2540	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1570	0.1501	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3744	0.3742	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7800	0.6610	0.7095	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6450	0.6145	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4146	0.4148	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7800	0.7440	0.7587	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	802139
playerID	802139
playerName	JJ Wetherholt
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	STL
teamID	26

Iván Herrera (671056) · BATTER · C · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 42

All-history rows before 20260514: 42

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2662

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.337	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.250	0.400	0.417
predicted_BB	0.667	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	1.000	1.024	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	0.905	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.800	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.401	0.200	0.399	0.600
predicted_R	0.548	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.548	0.000	0.452	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	1.000	1.548	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.431	1.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.416	0.250	1.251	1.417
predicted_SO	0.786	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	0.000	-0.786	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.337	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.548	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.431	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.906	0.240
predicted_AVG	0.337	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.427	-0.240
predicted_H	1.264	0.154
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.380	-0.000
predicted_R	0.468	-0.080
predicted_RBI	0.419	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.431	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.733	-0.053

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.324 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.4091	0.4091	0.4545	0.4091	0.0000	0.0909	0.0000	0.0909
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.3250	0.3636	0.4250	0.3250	0.0000	0.1250	0.0750	0.2250
season	0.20	42	-	154.000	41.000	11.000	4.000	19.000	23.000	28.000	33.000	0.2662	0.4010	0.4156	0.2662	0.0260	0.1234	0.1818	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2710
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0710
predicted_AVG	0.3366
predicted_BB	0.2620
predicted_H	1.3700
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.3799
predicted_R	0.4130
predicted_RBI	0.4530
predicted_SLG	0.4307
predicted_SO	0.6960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2620	0.2710	0.2673	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	4.0710	3.9065	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3370	0.3366	0.3368	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.2620	0.4269	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.3700	1.2642	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0336	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3799	0.3799	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5480	0.4130	0.4680	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4530	0.4192	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4310	0.4307	0.4308	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.6960	0.7326	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	671056
playerID	671056
playerName	Iván Herrera
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	STL
teamID	26

Masyn Winn (691026) · BATTER · SS · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 37

All-history rows before 20260514: 37

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	0.838	1.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.784	4.000	0.216	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.500	0.493	0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.351	0.000	0.649	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	1.000	-0.027	-1.000
predicted_H	0.780	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.973	2.000	2.027	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.800	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.500	0.471	0.300
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	0.568	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.294	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.350	0.500	0.650	0.500
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.811	0.000	-0.811	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.889	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.294	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.047	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.845	-0.044
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.277	-0.056
predicted_H	0.840	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.000
predicted_R	0.353	-0.091
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.000
predicted_SO	0.771	-0.062

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.889

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2381	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2368	0.2683	0.3158	0.2368	0.0000	0.0790	0.0526	0.1316
season	0.20	36	-	140.000	36.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	16.000	16.000	12.000	30.000	0.2571	0.3205	0.3500	0.2571	0.0071	0.1143	0.0857	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0860
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.8140
predicted_AVG	0.2314
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_H	0.8830
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.2716
predicted_R	0.2880
predicted_RBI	0.3140
predicted_SLG	0.2945
predicted_SO	0.7260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0860	0.1199	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0410	0.0473	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8890	3.8140	3.8454	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2314	0.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2360	0.2766	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8830	0.8399	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0223	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2716	0.2718	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.2880	0.3532	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3140	0.2998	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2940	0.2945	0.2943	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.7260	0.7707	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	691026
playerID	691026
playerName	Masyn Winn
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	STL
teamID	26

Victor Scott II (687363) · BATTER · CF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 34

All-history rows before 20260514: 34

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.912	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.912	3.000	0.088	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_BB	0.235	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.235	0.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.248	0.000	0.002	0.250
predicted_R	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.232	0.000	-0.232	0.000
predicted_SO	0.912	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.912	2.000	1.088	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.912	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.235	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.353	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.319	-
predicted_SO	0.912	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	0.049
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.065	0.153
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.244	0.009
predicted_H	0.616	0.106
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.048	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.000
predicted_R	0.460	0.107
predicted_RBI	0.122	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.319	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.917	0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2667	0.3125	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	0.1613	0.2571	0.2903	0.1613	0.0323	0.0323	0.0968	0.3548
season	0.20	34	-	99.000	18.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	12.000	8.000	31.000	0.1818	0.2477	0.2323	0.1818	0.0101	0.0505	0.0808	0.3131

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1860
predicted_AVG	0.2195
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_H	0.6990
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.2856
predicted_R	0.5440
predicted_RBI	0.1390
predicted_SLG	0.3188
predicted_SO	0.9210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.1460	0.1076	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9120	3.1860	3.0651	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2195	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2350	0.2510	0.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6990	0.6156	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0550	0.0484	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2856	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3530	0.5440	0.4597	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.1390	0.1218	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3190	0.3188	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9120	0.9210	0.9170	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	687363
playerID	687363
playerName	Victor Scott II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	STL
teamID	26

Nathan Church (701675) · BATTER · LF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 32

All-history rows before 20260514: 32

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2521

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.719	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.719	4.000	0.281	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.500	-0.252	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	1.000	-0.062	-1.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.938	2.000	-0.938	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.500	-0.280	-0.500
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.469	1.000	-0.469	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.395	0.500	-0.395	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.812	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.719	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.156	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.385	-
predicted_SO	0.812	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.035
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.716	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.170	0.014
predicted_H	0.993	0.113
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.037	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.325	-0.000
predicted_R	0.356	-0.082
predicted_RBI	0.364	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.000
predicted_SO	0.739	-0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.3333	0.3684	0.3889	0.3333	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2895	0.3077	0.3684	0.2895	0.0000	0.0790	0.0263	0.1579
season	0.20	32	-	119.000	30.000	5.000	4.000	15.000	14.000	5.000	26.000	0.2521	0.2800	0.3950	0.2521	0.0336	0.1260	0.0420	0.2185

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7140
predicted_AVG	0.2905
predicted_BB	0.1810
predicted_H	1.0790
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.3248
predicted_R	0.2940
predicted_RBI	0.3970
predicted_SLG	0.3851
predicted_SO	0.6830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.2170	0.1907	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7190	3.7140	3.7162	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2905	0.2903	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1560	0.1810	0.1702	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.0790	0.9931	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0430	0.0374	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3248	0.3249	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.2940	0.3562	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3970	0.3638	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3850	0.3851	0.3851	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8120	0.6830	0.7387	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	701675
playerID	701675
playerName	Nathan Church
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	STL
teamID	26

Michael McGreevy (700241) · PITCHER · Starter · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.250	2.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.375	0.000	-0.375	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	3.625	1.000	-0.625	2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.550	6.000	-1.350	-1.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	4.125	9.000	0.875	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.200	7.000	18.000	8.000	23.000	4.000	2.1977	0.9070	0.2442	0.6279	0.2791	0.8023	0.1395
last_10	0.35	8	45.100	11.000	29.000	10.000	33.000	5.000	2.1838	0.8603	0.2427	0.6397	0.2206	0.7279	0.1103
season	0.20	8	45.100	11.000	29.000	10.000	33.000	5.000	2.1838	0.8603	0.2427	0.6397	0.2206	0.7279	0.1103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6190
predicted_ER	1.7360
predicted_ERA	2.9583
predicted_H	3.9610
predicted_HR	0.6850
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.4770
predicted_WHIP	1.0565

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.6190	1.8143	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.7360	1.3588	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9583	2.9583	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	3.9610	3.4685	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6850	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.1000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.4770	4.7450	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0565	1.0565	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	5
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	84

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.18
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	700241
playerID	700241
playerName	Michael McGreevy
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

George Soriano (666277) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 19

All-history rows before 20260514: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	1.000	0.632	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.632	2.000	0.368	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	1.000	0.400	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	1.9286	1.5000	0.2143	0.8571	0.6429	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	2.000	8.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	2.0769	1.3846	0.2308	0.9231	0.4615	0.9231	0.1154
season	0.20	19	18.000	7.000	12.000	10.000	15.000	2.000	3.5000	1.2222	0.3889	0.6667	0.5556	0.8333	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6330
predicted_ER	0.5240
predicted_ERA	3.3954
predicted_H	1.2480
predicted_HR	0.1960
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2820
predicted_WHIP	1.3547

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6330	0.2555	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5240	0.8079	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3954	3.3954	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2480	1.1001	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1960	0.6755	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2820	1.1138	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3547	1.3547	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	666277
playerID	666277
playerName	George Soriano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Gordon Graceffo (700669) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 18

All-history rows before 20260514: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.078	1.200	0.022	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.556	0.000	1.444	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.0625	1.5000	0.5625	0.9375	0.5625	0.1875	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	4.000	9.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	3.0000	1.0000	0.3333	0.7500	0.2500	0.3333	0.1667
season	0.20	18	22.200	5.000	12.000	9.000	10.000	2.000	1.9853	0.9265	0.2206	0.5294	0.3971	0.4412	0.0882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5040
predicted_ER	0.5560
predicted_ERA	3.9658
predicted_H	1.0960
predicted_HR	0.2320
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	0.8090
predicted_WHIP	1.2677

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5040	0.2155	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5560	0.2378	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9658	3.9658	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0960	0.4687	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2320	0.0992	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8090	1.4907	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2677	1.2677	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.99
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	700669
playerID	700669
playerName	Gordon Graceffo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Riley O'Brien (676617) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.850	0.000	-0.850	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.930	1.000	0.170	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.150	0.000	-1.150	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	7.7143	1.5000	0.8571	1.2857	0.2143	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	6.000	13.000	2.000	12.000	1.000	5.5862	1.5517	0.6207	1.3448	0.2069	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	20	20.000	6.000	17.000	2.000	23.000	1.000	2.7000	0.9500	0.3000	0.8500	0.1000	1.1500	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3500
predicted_ER	0.6550
predicted_ERA	4.9722
predicted_H	1.2610
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2850
predicted_WHIP	1.3587

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3500	0.1451	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6550	0.2715	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9722	4.9722	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2610	0.5227	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1600	0.0663	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2850	0.5327	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3587	1.3587	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	676617
playerID	676617
playerName	Riley O'Brien
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Ryne Stanek (592773) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.900	0.000	-0.900	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.760	1.000	0.240	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.2000	0.4000	1.2000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	4.000	5.000	7.000	12.000	0.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	0.5769	0.8077	1.3846	0.0000
season	0.20	20	18.000	12.000	18.000	14.000	24.000	1.000	6.0000	1.7778	0.6667	1.0000	0.7778	1.3333	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4790
predicted_ER	0.3940
predicted_ERA	3.5451
predicted_H	0.7530
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0970
predicted_WHIP	1.2322

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4790	0.1933	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3940	0.1590	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5451	3.5451	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7530	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0800	0.0323	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0970	0.4428	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2322	1.2322	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	592773
playerID	592773
playerName	Ryne Stanek
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

JoJo Romero (668941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.830	1.000	-0.730	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	2.000	0.100	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3750	0.0000	0.1875	0.1875	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	8.000	4.000	12.000	3.000	7.0000	1.3333	0.7778	0.8889	0.4444	1.3333	0.3333
season	0.20	20	20.100	7.000	15.000	7.000	18.000	3.000	3.0984	1.0820	0.3443	0.7377	0.3443	0.8852	0.1475

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2200
predicted_ER	0.2580
predicted_ERA	3.6852
predicted_H	0.4810
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6830
predicted_WHIP	1.1105

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2200	0.0916	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2580	0.1074	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6852	3.6852	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4810	0.2002	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0860	0.0358	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6830	0.8680	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1105	1.1105	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	668941
playerID	668941
playerName	JoJo Romero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Home Team: OAK

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 25

All-history rows before 20260514: 25

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1895

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.250	-0.189	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.520	0.000	-0.520	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.720	1.000	-0.720	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.250	-0.282	-0.250
predicted_R	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.720	0.000	-0.720	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.358	0.250	-0.358	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.360	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.360	1.000	-1.360	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.520	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.360	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.413	-
predicted_SO	1.360	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.705	-0.095
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.565	0.045
predicted_H	0.844	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.178	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.347	-0.000
predicted_R	0.333	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.598	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.413	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.219	-0.141

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.1765	0.2353	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	6.000	13.000	0.2703	0.3721	0.4595	0.2703	0.0541	0.1892	0.1622	0.3513
season	0.20	25	-	95.000	18.000	1.000	5.000	18.000	9.000	13.000	34.000	0.1895	0.2818	0.3579	0.1895	0.0526	0.1895	0.1368	0.3579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6300
predicted_AVG	0.2396
predicted_BB	0.6000
predicted_H	0.8700
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1840
predicted_OBP	0.3467
predicted_R	0.3120
predicted_RBI	0.6200
predicted_SLG	0.4127
predicted_SO	1.1080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0400	0.0700	0.0568	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.6300	3.7049	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2396	0.2398	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5200	0.6000	0.5648	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8700	0.8436	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1840	0.1778	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3467	0.3468	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3600	0.3120	0.3331	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6200	0.5980	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4130	0.4127	0.4128	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3600	1.1080	1.2190	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Shea Langeliers (669127) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 38

All-history rows before 20260514: 38

System season_avg: 0.3310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3312

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.132	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.132	4.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.311	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.331	0.000	-0.331	0.000
predicted_BB	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.395	1.000	-0.395	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.368	0.000	-1.368	0.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.391	0.200	-0.391	-0.200
predicted_R	0.789	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.789	1.000	-0.789	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.658	0.000	-0.658	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.588	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.624	0.000	-0.624	0.000
predicted_SO	0.974	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.974	0.000	-0.974	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.132	-
predicted_AVG	0.311	-
predicted_BB	0.395	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.395	-
predicted_R	0.789	-
predicted_RBI	0.870	-
predicted_SLG	0.588	-
predicted_SO	0.974	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.264	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.960	-0.172
predicted_AVG	0.311	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.453	0.058
predicted_H	1.176	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.119	-
predicted_HR	0.263	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.395	0.000
predicted_R	0.820	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.887	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.588	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	-0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.064

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.132

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3913	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.2778	0.1667	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	15.000	4.000	4.000	11.000	11.000	5.000	6.000	0.3750	0.4468	0.7750	0.3750	0.1000	0.2750	0.1250	0.1500
season	0.20	38	-	157.000	52.000	10.000	12.000	25.000	30.000	15.000	37.000	0.3312	0.3908	0.6242	0.3312	0.0764	0.1592	0.0955	0.2357

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2650
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8390
predicted_AVG	0.3109
predicted_BB	0.4940
predicted_H	1.1940
predicted_HBP	0.1190
predicted_HR	0.2650
predicted_OBP	0.3951
predicted_R	0.8410
predicted_RBI	0.8990
predicted_SLG	0.5877
predicted_SO	0.8630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.2650	0.2642	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1320	3.8390	3.9598	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3110	0.3109	0.3109	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3950	0.4940	0.4532	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.1940	1.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1190	0.1190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2650	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3950	0.3951	0.3951	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7890	0.8410	0.8196	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8700	0.8990	0.8870	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5880	0.5877	0.5878	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9740	0.8630	0.9087	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.331

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669127
playerID	669127
playerName	Shea Langeliers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	1.000	-0.195	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.659	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.659	4.000	-1.659	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.500	-0.267	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.951	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.951	0.000	1.049	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	2.000	-0.976	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	1.000	-0.146	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.418	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.418	0.500	0.082	0.000
predicted_R	0.634	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.634	2.000	-0.634	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.610	4.000	-0.610	-4.000
predicted_SLG	0.605	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.453	1.500	-0.453	-1.500
predicted_SO	1.366	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.366	1.000	0.634	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.659	-
predicted_AVG	0.328	-
predicted_BB	0.951	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.418	-
predicted_R	0.634	-
predicted_RBI	0.870	-
predicted_SLG	0.605	-
predicted_SO	1.366	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.306	0.111
predicted_3B	0.077	0.053
predicted_AB	3.764	0.105
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.000
predicted_BB	0.738	-0.213
predicted_H	1.186	0.106
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.418	0.000
predicted_R	0.783	0.149
predicted_RBI	0.955	0.085
predicted_SLG	0.605	0.000
predicted_SO	1.131	-0.235

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.315 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	6.000	3.000	4.000	0.3684	0.4545	0.7895	0.3684	0.0526	0.3684	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	8.000	5.000	10.000	0.3500	0.4222	0.5500	0.3500	0.0250	0.2500	0.1250	0.2500
season	0.20	41	-	150.000	40.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	25.000	26.000	39.000	56.000	0.2667	0.4180	0.4533	0.2667	0.0400	0.1667	0.2600	0.3733

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3820
predicted_3B	0.1140
predicted_AB	3.8360
predicted_AVG	0.3282
predicted_BB	0.5910
predicted_H	1.2590
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_OBP	0.4180
predicted_R	0.8850
predicted_RBI	1.0140
predicted_SLG	0.6050
predicted_SO	0.9690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.3820	0.3057	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.1140	0.0773	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6590	3.8360	3.7638	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3280	0.3282	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9510	0.5910	0.7378	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.2590	1.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1510	0.1424	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4180	0.4180	0.4180	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6340	0.8850	0.7826	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8700	1.0140	0.9553	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6050	0.6050	0.6050	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3660	0.9690	1.1309	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Carlos Cortes (666126) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 26

All-history rows before 20260514: 26

System season_avg: 0.3410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3409

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.192	1.000	-0.192	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.385	3.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.341	0.333	-0.341	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	1.000	-0.308	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.154	1.000	-1.154	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.500	-0.392	-0.500
predicted_R	0.423	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.577	0.000	-0.577	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.557	0.667	-0.557	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.346	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.346	0.000	-0.346	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.385	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.423	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.435	-
predicted_SO	0.346	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.040
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.525	0.140
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000
predicted_BB	0.269	-0.039
predicted_H	0.982	0.132
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.047	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000
predicted_R	0.372	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.403	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.435	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.442	0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2778	0.3000	0.3889	0.2778	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.3514	0.3750	0.4595	0.3513	0.0000	0.1081	0.0541	0.1351
season	0.20	26	-	88.000	30.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	15.000	11.000	8.000	9.000	0.3409	0.3918	0.5568	0.3409	0.0454	0.1704	0.0909	0.1023

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2640
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.6400
predicted_AVG	0.2991
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	1.0890
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.3353
predicted_R	0.3300
predicted_RBI	0.4460
predicted_SLG	0.4347
predicted_SO	0.5210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1920	0.2640	0.2316	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0360	0.0369	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3850	3.6400	3.5253	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2991	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.2370	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	1.0890	0.9815	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0530	0.0472	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3353	0.3352	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4230	0.3300	0.3718	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4460	0.4028	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4350	0.4347	0.4348	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3460	0.5210	0.4423	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.341

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	666126
playerID	666126
playerName	Carlos Cortes
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Darell Hernaiz (687231) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2407

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.176	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.176	4.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.750	0.093	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.765	3.000	0.235	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	0.941	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.750	-0.005	-0.417
predicted_R	0.412	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	1.000	0.588	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.313	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.296	0.750	1.037	0.583
predicted_SO	0.647	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.647	0.000	1.353	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.176	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.313	-
predicted_SO	0.647	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.385	0.209
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.392	-0.079
predicted_H	0.789	0.139
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.038	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.000
predicted_R	0.466	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.278	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000
predicted_SO	0.742	0.095

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.2778	0.2778	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.2571	0.3333	0.2571	0.2571	0.0000	0.0857	0.1143	0.2000
season	0.20	17	-	54.000	13.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	8.000	11.000	0.2407	0.3387	0.2963	0.2407	0.0185	0.0926	0.1482	0.2037

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0550
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5840
predicted_AVG	0.2569
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_H	0.9210
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_OBP	0.3196
predicted_R	0.5170
predicted_RBI	0.3230
predicted_SLG	0.3134
predicted_SO	0.8330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0550	0.0282	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1760	3.5840	3.3850	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2569	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.3160	0.3916	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.9210	0.7888	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0460	0.0382	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3196	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.5170	0.4658	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.3230	0.2776	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3130	0.3134	0.3132	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6470	0.8330	0.7423	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	687231
playerID	687231
playerName	Darell Hernaiz
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jeff McNeil (643446) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 33

All-history rows before 20260514: 33

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2966

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.576	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.576	4.000	-0.576	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.250	-0.297	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.061	1.000	-1.061	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.250	-0.356	-0.250
predicted_R	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.303	1.000	-0.303	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.250	-0.390	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.576	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.303	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.288	-
predicted_SO	0.455	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-0.048
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.609	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.203	-0.100
predicted_H	0.734	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.000
predicted_R	0.284	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.000
predicted_SO	0.677	0.222

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.3056	0.3333	0.3889	0.3056	0.0000	0.1667	0.0278	0.1667
season	0.20	33	-	118.000	35.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	10.000	10.000	15.000	0.2966	0.3561	0.3898	0.2966	0.0085	0.1017	0.0848	0.1271

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1580
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6330
predicted_AVG	0.2214
predicted_BB	0.1290
predicted_H	0.8040
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.2675
predicted_R	0.2690
predicted_RBI	0.3160
predicted_SLG	0.2882
predicted_SO	0.8430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.1580	0.1940	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5760	3.6330	3.6086	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2214	0.2212	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.1290	0.2035	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.8040	0.7338	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0270	0.0240	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2675	0.2677	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3030	0.2690	0.2836	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3160	0.2877	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2880	0.2882	0.2881	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4550	0.8430	0.6768	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	643446
playerID	643446
playerName	Jeff McNeil
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Tyler Soderstrom (691016) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 39

All-history rows before 20260514: 39

System season_avg: 0.2010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2013

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2010

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	4.000	0.179	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.201	0.000	0.049	0.250
predicted_BB	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.769	0.000	0.231	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	-0.036	0.250
predicted_R	0.564	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.564	0.000	0.436	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	0.000	0.487	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.000	0.104	0.500
predicted_SO	0.923	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	0.000	-0.923	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.821	-
predicted_AVG	0.161	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.238	-
predicted_R	0.564	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	-0.054
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.890	0.069
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.000
predicted_BB	0.422	-0.040
predicted_H	0.604	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.096	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.000
predicted_R	0.650	0.086
predicted_RBI	0.209	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.296	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.965	0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.155 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.821

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.1000	0.1818	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	11.000	0.1750	0.2500	0.3750	0.1750	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000	0.2750
season	0.20	39	-	149.000	30.000	12.000	1.000	5.000	20.000	22.000	18.000	36.000	0.2013	0.2857	0.3960	0.2013	0.0336	0.1342	0.1208	0.2416

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2160
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.9390
predicted_AVG	0.1613
predicted_BB	0.3930
predicted_H	0.6350
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.2384
predicted_R	0.7110
predicted_RBI	0.2220
predicted_SLG	0.2956
predicted_SO	0.9940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.2160	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0149	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8210	3.9390	3.8901	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1610	0.1613	0.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.3930	0.4216	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6350	0.6039	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1000	0.0959	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2380	0.2384	0.2382	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5640	0.7110	0.6501	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2220	0.2088	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2960	0.2956	0.2958	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.9940	0.9646	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.201

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	691016
playerID	691016
playerName	Tyler Soderstrom
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 19

All-history rows before 20260514: 19

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2537

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.526	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.526	4.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.250	0.413	0.417
predicted_BB	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.895	1.000	1.105	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	1.000	-0.211	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.667	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.361	0.417
predicted_R	0.579	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.579	1.000	-0.579	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.632	1.000	-0.632	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.464	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.493	1.000	0.174	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.947	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.947	0.000	0.053	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.526	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.263	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.579	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.464	-
predicted_SO	0.947	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.045	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.577	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	0.045
predicted_H	0.815	0.095
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.184	0.024
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.000
predicted_R	0.553	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.506	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.464	0.000
predicted_SO	0.950	0.003

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	0.2857	0.3590	0.6286	0.2857	0.0857	0.2286	0.1143	0.2857
season	0.20	19	-	67.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	11.000	5.000	18.000	0.2537	0.3056	0.4925	0.2537	0.0597	0.1791	0.0746	0.2687

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.6230
predicted_AVG	0.2487
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_H	0.9010
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.2050
predicted_OBP	0.3169
predicted_R	0.5300
predicted_RBI	0.5560
predicted_SLG	0.4643
predicted_SO	0.9530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.0910	0.0976	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0370	0.0446	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5260	3.6230	3.5770	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2487	0.2488	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2630	0.3480	0.3077	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.9010	0.8152	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.2050	0.1837	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3169	0.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5790	0.5300	0.5532	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5560	0.5057	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4640	0.4643	0.4642	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9470	0.9530	0.9502	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Henry Bolte (703607) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 1

All-history rows before 20260514: 1

System season_avg: 1.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 1.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 1.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_BB	1.250	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.750	0.750	-0.750	-0.750
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.333	-
predicted_BB	1.250	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.387	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.041	0.041
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.801	0.301
predicted_AVG	0.333	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.027	-0.223
predicted_H	0.736	0.175
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.000
predicted_R	0.114	0.114
predicted_RBI	0.377	0.087
predicted_SLG	0.466	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.198	0.198

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	0.5000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	1	-	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	0.5000	0.5000
season	0.20	1	-	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	0.5000	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1490
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.5860
predicted_AVG	0.3328
predicted_BB	0.4470
predicted_H	1.1930
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.3870
predicted_R	0.4120
predicted_RBI	0.6040
predicted_SLG	0.4655
predicted_SO	0.7130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1490	0.0413	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.5860	2.8010	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3330	0.3328	0.3329	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.2500	0.4470	1.0274	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	1.1930	0.7355	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.1010	0.0641	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3870	0.3870	0.3870	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4120	0.1142	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.6040	0.3770	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4655	0.4659	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7130	0.1976	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	1.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	703607
playerID	703607
playerName	Henry Bolte
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jacob Lopez (682052) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	3.000	2.000	-2.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	4.750	3.000	2.250	4.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	2.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.300	5.100	-2.100	-2.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	3.500	5.000	-0.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	22.000	13.000	22.000	11.000	17.000	5.000	5.3182	1.5000	0.5909	1.0000	0.5000	0.7727	0.2273
last_10	0.35	8	35.100	24.000	38.000	24.000	28.000	8.000	6.1132	1.7547	0.6793	1.0755	0.6793	0.7924	0.2264
season	0.20	8	35.100	24.000	38.000	24.000	28.000	8.000	6.1132	1.7547	0.6793	1.0755	0.6793	0.7924	0.2264

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8060
predicted_ER	2.0660
predicted_ERA	5.0370
predicted_H	3.6600
predicted_HR	0.6980
predicted_IP	3.2000
predicted_SO	3.1300
predicted_WHIP	1.4804

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.8060	1.3929	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.0660	3.0572	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0370	5.0370	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	3.6600	5.3717	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.6980	1.3653	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	3.2000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	3.1300	3.0634	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4804	1.4804	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	7
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	3
HR	2
BF	17
Pitches	65

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	6.11
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	682052
playerID	682052
playerName	Jacob Lopez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 23

All-history rows before 20260514: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.739	0.000	1.261	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.261	0.000	0.739	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.783	1.000	0.217	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.670	0.100	0.430	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	2.200	1.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	3.3750	2.6250	0.3750	1.8750	0.7500	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	6.200	2.000	10.000	5.000	10.000	1.000	2.7000	2.2500	0.3000	1.5000	0.7500	1.5000	0.1500
season	0.20	23	21.000	6.000	18.000	17.000	23.000	2.000	2.5714	1.6667	0.2857	0.8571	0.8095	1.0952	0.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5870
predicted_ER	0.4280
predicted_ERA	3.6347
predicted_H	1.2860
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2380
predicted_WHIP	1.7662

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.5870	1.4071	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4280	0.7600	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6347	3.6347	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2860	1.1200	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1090	0.0457	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2380	0.5195	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7662	1.7662	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Scott Barlow (605130) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 19

All-history rows before 20260514: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.421	1.000	-0.421	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.858	0.200	0.242	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.947	1.000	0.053	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	3.6000	0.4000	0.4000	0.2000	0.2000	1.2000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	0.000	1.6875	0.4688	0.1875	0.1875	0.2812	1.0312	0.0000
season	0.20	18	19.100	3.000	6.000	7.000	18.000	1.000	1.3966	0.6724	0.1552	0.3103	0.3621	0.9310	0.0517

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3900
predicted_ER	0.4550
predicted_ERA	3.4473
predicted_H	0.7440
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2050
predicted_WHIP	0.9542

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3900	0.7493	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4550	0.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4473	3.4473	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7440	0.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0920	0.0378	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2050	1.0843	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9542	0.9542	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	605130
playerID	605130
playerName	Scott Barlow
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Justin Sterner (686993) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.100	2.000	-1.100	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.830	0.200	0.170	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.150	1.000	-0.150	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.5454	0.2727	1.0909	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	5.000	7.000	2.000	9.000	2.000	5.4000	1.0800	0.6000	0.8400	0.2400	1.0800	0.2400
season	0.20	20	20.100	10.000	22.000	7.000	23.000	3.000	4.4262	1.4262	0.4918	1.0820	0.3443	1.1312	0.1475

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_ER	0.3960
predicted_ERA	4.0471
predicted_H	0.7550
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8980
predicted_WHIP	1.1907

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2940	0.7061	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3960	0.1648	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0471	4.0471	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7550	0.3143	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1070	0.0445	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8980	0.9575	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1907	1.1907	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.43
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	686993
playerID	686993
playerName	Justin Sterner
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Mark Leiter Jr. (643410) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 19

All-history rows before 20260514: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.263	0.000	-0.263	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.742	1.000	0.258	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.947	1.000	-0.947	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	13.5000	2.0000	1.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	7.000	10.000	4.000	10.000	0.000	7.2692	1.6154	0.8077	1.1539	0.4615	1.1539	0.0000
season	0.20	19	16.200	15.000	24.000	6.000	18.000	2.000	8.1000	1.8000	0.9000	1.4400	0.3600	1.0800	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3870
predicted_ER	0.6890
predicted_ERA	6.5948
predicted_H	1.0430
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9850
predicted_WHIP	1.5209

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3870	0.7574	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6890	0.8769	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.5948	6.5948	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0430	1.0170	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0820	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9850	0.3898	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5209	1.5209	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	8.10
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	643410
playerID	643410
playerName	Mark Leiter Jr.
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 15

All-history rows before 20260514: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.820	0.200	-0.620	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.3750	0.7500	0.3750	0.3750	0.3750	0.3750	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	5.000	11.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.2188	1.4062	0.4688	1.0312	0.3750	0.2812	0.0938
season	0.20	15	15.100	5.000	12.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	2.9348	1.0435	0.3261	0.7826	0.2609	0.3913	0.0652

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2930
predicted_ER	0.3480
predicted_ERA	3.9552
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5760
predicted_WHIP	1.2130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2930	0.1135	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3480	0.1348	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9552	3.9552	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6690	0.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1020	0.0395	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5760	0.2232	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2130	1.2130	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Luis Medina (665622) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 11

All-history rows before 20260514: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	-	0.000	-	Pitching_BB	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_ER	-	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_H	-	1.000	-	Pitching_H	0.818	0.000	0.182	1.000
predicted_IP	-	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.318	1.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_SO	-	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.364	0.000	0.636	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.200	0.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6522	0.0000	0.3913	0.2609	0.7826	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	15.100	3.000	8.000	6.000	14.000	1.000	1.7609	0.9130	0.1956	0.5217	0.3913	0.9130	0.0652
season	0.20	11	15.200	3.000	9.000	7.000	15.000	1.000	1.7234	1.0213	0.1915	0.5745	0.4468	0.9575	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3000
predicted_ER	0.2680
predicted_ERA	2.9469
predicted_H	0.6230
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7550
predicted_WHIP	1.1268

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3000	0.1169	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2680	0.1044	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9469	2.9469	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6230	0.2427	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0760	0.0296	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7550	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1268	1.1268	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.72
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	665622
playerID	665622
playerName	Luis Medina
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

20260514_WAS@CIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.538832, "home_win_probability": 0.461168, "away_win_probability": 0.538832, "predicted_score_text": "WAS 4 - 3 CIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "WAS 4 - 3 CIN", "confidence": 0.538832, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "WAS 4 - 3 CIN", "winner": "WAS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "WAS 6 - 1 CIN", "winner": "WAS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 2, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	WAS 4 - 3 CIN	WAS	0.539	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	WAS 6 - 1 CIN	WAS	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away WAS	6-4	0.600	5.90	5	9	2W	hot	average
Home CIN	2-8	0.200	3.40	5.30	-19	2L	cold	weak

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-13	WAS @ CIN	8 - 7	WAS	1	close
2026-05-12	WAS @ CIN	10 - 4	WAS	6	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target WAS	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target CIN	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized WAS	33	9	6	0	4	2	9
Player finalized CIN	32	9	4	0	2	3	9
Player model fractional WAS	32.63	7.57	5.07	1.41	4.62	3.19	7.89
Player model fractional CIN	32.30	7.73	4.68	0.90	3.24	4.22	7.38
Simulation box WAS	36	9	6	2	6	4	10
Simulation box CIN	33	7	1	0	1	2	13

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away WAS	Starter	Foster Griffin	4.10	1	7	4	1	2.99	1.12	True
Away WAS	Middle Reliever	Richard Lovelady	1.20	0	0	0	0	2.73	1.45	True
Away WAS	Middle Reliever	Gus Varland	1.10	0	1	1	1	4.91	1.44	True
Away WAS	Middle Reliever	PJ Poulin	1.10	0	3	2	0	2.91	1.34	True
Away WAS	Middle Reliever	Paxton Schultz	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.08	1.22	-
Away WAS	Middle Reliever	Brad Lord	0.10	0	2	0	0	3.02	1.19	True
Home CIN	Starter	Chase Burns	3.10	3	4	3	2	2.64	1.09	True
Home CIN	Middle Reliever	Graham Ashcraft	1.10	1	2	1	0	3.34	1.24	True
Home CIN	Middle Reliever	Pierce Johnson	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.97	1.32	True
Home CIN	Middle Reliever	Brock Burke	1	1	1	2	0	4.92	1.55	True
Home CIN	Middle Reliever	Connor Phillips	1	1	0	2	1	6.01	1.53	True
Home CIN	Middle Reliever	Tony Santillan	1	0	2	0	1	5.29	1.45	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: WAS

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 43

All-history rows before 20260514: 43

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2378

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.814	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.814	4.000	1.186	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.000	-0.038	0.200
predicted_BB	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.860	1.000	-0.860	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.907	0.000	0.093	1.000
predicted_HR	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.279	0.000	0.721	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.387	0.200	-0.187	0.000
predicted_R	0.837	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.837	0.000	0.163	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.674	0.000	0.326	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.538	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.524	0.000	0.276	0.800
predicted_SO	1.488	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.488	2.000	-1.488	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.814	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.860	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.353	-
predicted_R	0.837	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.538	-
predicted_SO	1.488	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	0.054
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.854	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.708	-0.152
predicted_H	0.854	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.124	-
predicted_HR	0.268	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.000
predicted_R	0.713	-0.124
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.538	0.000
predicted_SO	1.321	-0.167

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.070

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.814

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2000	0.3333	0.6000	0.2000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	12.000	0.2632	0.3778	0.5263	0.2632	0.0526	0.1316	0.1579	0.3158
season	0.20	43	-	164.000	39.000	11.000	12.000	29.000	36.000	37.000	64.000	0.2378	0.3873	0.5244	0.2378	0.0732	0.1768	0.2256	0.3902

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8810
predicted_AVG	0.2315
predicted_BB	0.6050
predicted_H	0.8980
predicted_HBP	0.1240
predicted_HR	0.2800
predicted_OBP	0.3527
predicted_R	0.6290
predicted_RBI	0.4890
predicted_SLG	0.5380
predicted_SO	1.2070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.3460	0.3096	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8140	3.8810	3.8539	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2315	0.2317	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8600	0.6050	0.7081	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8980	0.8544	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1240	0.1240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2800	0.2679	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3530	0.3527	0.3528	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8370	0.6290	0.7131	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4890	0.4652	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5380	0.5380	0.5380	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4880	1.2070	1.3206	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Luis García Jr. (671277) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 30

All-history rows before 20260514: 30

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.6000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	5.000	1.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.600	0.127	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	3.000	1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	2.000	-0.100	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.600	0.104	-0.200
predicted_R	0.533	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.533	2.000	0.467	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.700	2.000	0.300	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.625	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.455	1.800	-0.055	-1.400
predicted_SO	0.633	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.633	1.000	0.367	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.324	-
predicted_BB	0.133	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.625	-
predicted_SO	0.633	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.092	0.025
predicted_AB	3.770	0.103
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.000
predicted_BB	0.104	-0.029
predicted_H	1.170	0.100
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.220	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.000
predicted_R	0.591	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.685	0.055
predicted_SLG	0.625	0.000
predicted_SO	0.719	0.086

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.310 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.8500	0.4000	0.1000	0.2500	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	0.000	8.000	0.3158	0.3158	0.6053	0.3158	0.0526	0.1579	0.0000	0.2105
season	0.20	30	-	110.000	30.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	21.000	16.000	4.000	19.000	0.2727	0.2957	0.4545	0.2727	0.0273	0.1909	0.0364	0.1727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.1110
predicted_AB	3.8500
predicted_AVG	0.3241
predicted_BB	0.0820
predicted_H	1.2480
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.2360
predicted_OBP	0.3405
predicted_R	0.6360
predicted_RBI	0.7280
predicted_SLG	0.6251
predicted_SO	0.7850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.2290	0.2307	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.1110	0.0918	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.8500	3.7700	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3240	0.3241	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1330	0.0820	0.1043	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.2480	1.1701	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2360	0.2203	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3405	0.3407	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.6360	0.5909	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.7280	0.6851	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6250	0.6251	0.6251	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6330	0.7850	0.7185	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	9
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	671277
playerID	671277
playerName	Luis García Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jorbit Vivas (678391) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 23

All-history rows before 20260514: 23

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	0.000	0.870	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.043	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.043	3.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.333	0.076	0.000
predicted_BB	0.261	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.261	0.000	0.739	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.783	1.000	0.217	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.229	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.333	0.162	0.167
predicted_R	0.565	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.565	1.000	0.435	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.130	0.000	1.870	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.250	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.333	0.367	0.333
predicted_SO	0.478	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.478	0.000	-0.478	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.043	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.261	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.229	-
predicted_R	0.565	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.250	-
predicted_SO	0.478	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.188	0.145
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.194	-0.067
predicted_H	0.567	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.229	0.000
predicted_R	0.490	-0.075
predicted_RBI	0.141	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.250	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.590	0.112

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.1935	0.2188	0.2258	0.1935	0.0323	0.0323	0.1613
season	0.20	23	-	70.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	6.000	11.000	0.2571	0.3375	0.3000	0.2571	0.0429	0.0857	0.1571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0900
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3150
predicted_AVG	0.1941
predicted_BB	0.1360
predicted_H	0.6430
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2290
predicted_R	0.4240
predicted_RBI	0.1600
predicted_SLG	0.2496
predicted_SO	0.6870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.0900	0.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0430	3.3150	3.1885	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1941	0.1941	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2610	0.1360	0.1942	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6430	0.5672	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0248	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2290	0.2290	0.2290	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5650	0.4240	0.4896	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1600	0.1414	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2500	0.2496	0.2498	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4780	0.6870	0.5898	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	678391
playerID	678391
playerName	Jorbit Vivas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brady House (691781) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 34

All-history rows before 20260514: 34

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.118	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.118	4.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.000	-0.014	0.200
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.882	0.000	0.118	1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	0.824	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.000	-0.072	0.200
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.588	0.000	0.412	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.000	0.414	0.800
predicted_SO	1.235	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.235	1.000	0.765	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.118	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.249	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	1.235	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.025	-0.093
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000
predicted_BB	0.307	-0.017
predicted_H	0.740	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.207	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.000
predicted_R	0.538	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.706	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000
predicted_SO	1.089	-0.146

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.118

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.3500	0.1500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.2051	0.2791	0.4872	0.2051	0.0769	0.2821	0.1026	0.2308
season	0.20	34	-	140.000	30.000	6.000	6.000	20.000	17.000	11.000	42.000	0.2143	0.2715	0.3857	0.2143	0.0429	0.1429	0.0786	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1930
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9570
predicted_AVG	0.1924
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_H	0.7610
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2120
predicted_OBP	0.2489
predicted_R	0.5660
predicted_RBI	0.7240
predicted_SLG	0.4034
predicted_SO	0.9840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1930	0.1859	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1180	3.9570	4.0246	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1924	0.1922	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.2940	0.3066	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7610	0.7396	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2120	0.2070	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2490	0.2489	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5660	0.5383	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7240	0.7055	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.4034	0.4032	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2350	0.9840	1.0894	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	691781
playerID	691781
playerName	Brady House
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jacob Young (696285) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 37

All-history rows before 20260514: 37

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2199

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.811	4.000	-0.811	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.500	-0.220	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.216	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.216	1.000	0.784	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.838	2.000	-0.838	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.600	-0.022	-0.350
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.514	2.000	-0.514	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.500	-0.312	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.730	0.000	0.270	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.811	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.216	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.311	-
predicted_SO	0.730	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.823	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.321	0.105
predicted_H	0.671	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.623	0.109
predicted_RBI	0.335	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.311	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.665	-0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.811

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	7.000	0.1795	0.2558	0.2564	0.1795	0.0256	0.0513	0.0769	0.1795
season	0.20	37	-	141.000	31.000	4.000	3.000	16.000	19.000	8.000	27.000	0.2199	0.2715	0.3121	0.2199	0.0213	0.1135	0.0567	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8310
predicted_AVG	0.1888
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_H	0.7230
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.2730
predicted_R	0.7010
predicted_RBI	0.3600
predicted_SLG	0.3108
predicted_SO	0.6180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.0480	0.0732	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8110	3.8310	3.8226	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1888	0.1889	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2160	0.3970	0.3210	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7230	0.6713	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1380	0.1304	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2730	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.7010	0.6225	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3600	0.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3110	0.3108	0.3109	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7300	0.6180	0.6650	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	696285
playerID	696285
playerName	Jacob Young
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 41

All-history rows before 20260514: 41

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2980

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3090

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	2.000	0.805	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.683	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.683	5.000	-0.683	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.298	0.400	0.035	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.463	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.463	0.000	1.537	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.098	2.000	-0.098	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.393	0.400	0.207	0.200
predicted_R	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.610	2.000	0.390	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.878	0.000	0.122	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.512	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.543	0.800	0.124	-0.133
predicted_SO	0.829	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.829	1.000	-0.829	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.683	-
predicted_AVG	0.309	-
predicted_BB	0.463	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.371	-
predicted_R	0.610	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.512	-
predicted_SO	0.829	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.274	0.079
predicted_3B	0.075	0.051
predicted_AB	3.883	0.200
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000
predicted_BB	0.406	-0.057
predicted_H	1.148	0.138
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.371	-0.000
predicted_R	0.675	0.065
predicted_RBI	0.694	0.084
predicted_SLG	0.512	0.000
predicted_SO	1.004	0.175

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.5238	0.3333	0.0000	0.1429	0.0952	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	8.000	3.000	11.000	0.3171	0.3636	0.5366	0.3171	0.0244	0.2439	0.0732	0.2683
season	0.20	41	-	151.000	45.000	8.000	1.000	9.000	36.000	25.000	19.000	34.000	0.2980	0.3933	0.5430	0.2980	0.0596	0.2384	0.1258	0.2252

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3290
predicted_3B	0.1100
predicted_AB	4.0230
predicted_AVG	0.3095
predicted_BB	0.3660
predicted_H	1.2450
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_OBP	0.3709
predicted_R	0.7200
predicted_RBI	0.7520
predicted_SLG	0.5122
predicted_SO	1.1260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.3290	0.2739	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.1100	0.0747	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6830	4.0230	3.8833	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3090	0.3095	0.3093	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4630	0.3660	0.4059	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.2450	1.1484	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0890	0.0812	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3710	0.3709	0.3709	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6100	0.7200	0.6748	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.7520	0.6936	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5120	0.5122	0.5121	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8290	1.1260	1.0040	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

Drew Millas (686452) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

System season_avg: 0.1770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1774

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	0.850	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.100	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.100	2.000	0.900	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.177	0.000	0.323	0.500
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.550	0.000	1.450	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.333	0.250	0.167
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.274	0.000	0.476	0.750
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.100	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.008
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.150	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.305	0.005
predicted_H	0.588	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.067
predicted_RBI	0.402	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.053	0.053

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2143	0.3125	0.5000	0.2143	0.0714	0.2143	0.1429	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	12.000	0.1667	0.2188	0.3000	0.1667	0.0333	0.1000	0.0667	0.4000
season	0.20	20	-	62.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	6.000	20.000	0.1774	0.2500	0.2742	0.1774	0.0161	0.0806	0.0968	0.3226

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1650
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.1950
predicted_AVG	0.2067
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_H	0.6600
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.2789
predicted_R	0.5280
predicted_RBI	0.4490
predicted_SLG	0.3877
predicted_SO	1.1010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1650	0.1578	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1000	3.1950	3.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2067	0.2068	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.3100	0.3052	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6600	0.5881	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1360	0.1235	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2789	0.2789	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.5280	0.4666	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4490	0.4015	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3877	0.3878	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1010	1.0526	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.177

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	686452
playerID	686452
playerName	Drew Millas
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

Nasim Nuñez (683083) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 37

All-history rows before 20260514: 37

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2101

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.216	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.216	2.000	0.784	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	-0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.514	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.676	0.000	-0.676	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.000	-0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_SO	0.757	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.757	0.000	2.243	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.216	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.514	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.254	-
predicted_SO	0.757	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.001
predicted_3B	0.033	0.006
predicted_AB	3.042	-0.174
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.569	0.055
predicted_H	0.567	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.344	-0.088
predicted_RBI	0.241	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.000
predicted_SO	0.756	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.1538	0.3529	0.1538	0.1538	0.0000	0.3077	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	26.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	0.2308	0.3438	0.3077	0.2308	0.1538	0.1923	0.2308
season	0.20	37	-	119.000	25.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	16.000	19.000	28.000	0.2101	0.3214	0.2353	0.2101	0.1177	0.1597	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0280
predicted_3B	0.0380
predicted_AB	2.9130
predicted_AVG	0.2012
predicted_BB	0.6090
predicted_H	0.5860
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_OBP	0.3367
predicted_R	0.2790
predicted_RBI	0.2490
predicted_SLG	0.2540
predicted_SO	0.7550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0270	0.0280	0.0276	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0380	0.0333	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2160	2.9130	3.0416	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2012	0.2011	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5140	0.6090	0.5687	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.5860	0.5665	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0160	0.0135	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3367	0.3368	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.2790	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2490	0.2409	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2540	0.2540	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7570	0.7550	0.7558	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	683083
playerID	683083
playerName	Nasim Nuñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 42

All-history rows before 20260514: 42

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2695

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.976	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.976	4.000	0.024	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.347	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.500	-0.019	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.071	2.000	-0.071	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.400	-0.083	-0.150
predicted_R	0.643	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.643	1.000	-0.643	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.524	3.000	-0.524	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.711	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.443	1.250	-0.193	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.786	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	1.000	1.214	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.976	-
predicted_AVG	0.347	-
predicted_BB	0.381	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.382	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.880	-
predicted_SLG	0.711	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	0.031
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.900	-0.076
predicted_AVG	0.347	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.274	-0.107
predicted_H	1.263	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.340	0.030
predicted_OBP	0.382	-0.000
predicted_R	0.633	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.956	0.076
predicted_SLG	0.711	0.000
predicted_SO	0.691	-0.095

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.318 HR/AB=0.086

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.976

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	9.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.4500	0.4500	1.0000	0.4500	0.1500	0.4000	0.0000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	3.000	7.000	0.3056	0.3571	0.6389	0.3056	0.0833	0.2222	0.0833	0.1944
season	0.20	42	-	167.000	45.000	11.000	6.000	22.000	27.000	16.000	33.000	0.2695	0.3333	0.4431	0.2695	0.0359	0.1317	0.0958	0.1976

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8470
predicted_AVG	0.3468
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_H	1.3340
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.3610
predicted_OBP	0.3818
predicted_R	0.6260
predicted_RBI	1.0080
predicted_SLG	0.7111
predicted_SO	0.6260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2620	0.3140	0.2927	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9760	3.8470	3.8997	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3470	0.3468	0.3469	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3810	0.2000	0.2740	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.3340	1.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3610	0.3402	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3820	0.3818	0.3819	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.6260	0.6329	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8800	1.0080	0.9557	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7110	0.7111	0.7111	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.6260	0.6914	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	WAS
teamID	30

Foster Griffin (656492) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.875	1.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.375	1.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.125	4.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.775	7.000	-1.675	-2.900
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	5.250	9.000	1.750	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.100	8.000	22.000	9.000	30.000	4.000	2.2979	0.9894	0.2553	0.7021	0.2872	0.9575	0.1277
last_10	0.35	8	46.200	11.000	33.000	15.000	42.000	6.000	2.1214	1.0286	0.2357	0.7071	0.3214	0.9000	0.1286
season	0.20	8	46.200	11.000	33.000	15.000	42.000	6.000	2.1214	1.0286	0.2357	0.7071	0.3214	0.9000	0.1286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8130
predicted_ER	1.8260
predicted_ERA	2.9881
predicted_H	4.3670
predicted_HR	0.7050
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.2040
predicted_WHIP	1.1240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.8130	1.3963	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.8260	1.4027	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9881	2.9881	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.3670	4.1789	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7050	0.3437	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.1000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	5.2040	6.1244	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1240	1.1240	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	7
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	86

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.12
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	103
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	74
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	656492
playerID	656492
playerName	Foster Griffin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 10

All-history rows before 20260514: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.900	1.000	-0.900	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.900	1.000	-0.900	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.880	1.000	0.320	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.100	0.000	-1.100	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.6000	0.0000	0.8000	0.8000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	9.000	9.000	11.000	0.000	0.8438	1.6875	0.0938	0.8438	0.8438	1.0312	0.0000
season	0.20	16	18.000	4.000	17.000	13.000	17.000	1.000	2.0000	1.6667	0.2222	0.9444	0.7222	0.9444	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7710
predicted_ER	0.4210
predicted_ERA	2.7286
predicted_H	1.2490
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3540
predicted_WHIP	1.4547

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7710	0.3112	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4210	0.1699	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7286	2.7286	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2490	0.5041	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1110	0.0448	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3540	0.5465	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4547	1.4547	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 17

All-history rows before 20260514: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.118	1.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.776	1.000	0.324	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.8571	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	5.000	13.000	2.000	10.000	0.000	4.8214	1.6071	0.5357	1.3929	0.2143	1.0714	0.0000
season	0.20	17	16.000	8.000	19.000	5.000	17.000	1.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.1875	0.3125	1.0625	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4340
predicted_ER	0.6570
predicted_ERA	4.9114
predicted_H	1.3010
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1600
predicted_WHIP	1.4416

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4340	0.7783	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6570	0.2573	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9114	4.9114	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3010	1.1179	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1010	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1600	1.0627	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4416	1.4416	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 21

All-history rows before 20260514: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.762	1.000	1.238	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.786	1.000	0.314	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	0.714	1.000	2.286	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	0.6429	0.8571	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	0.000	1.9286	1.1786	0.2143	0.6429	0.5357	0.8571	0.0000
season	0.20	21	20.000	7.000	16.000	12.000	15.000	3.000	3.1500	1.4000	0.3500	0.8000	0.6000	0.7500	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6150
predicted_ER	0.3830
predicted_ERA	2.9085
predicted_H	0.9750
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1220
predicted_WHIP	1.3407

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6150	0.2549	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3830	0.1588	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9085	2.9085	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9750	1.5751	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1010	0.0419	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.1220	2.2215	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3407	1.3407	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.15
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Paxton Schultz (687606) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 11

All-history rows before 20260514: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.273	2.000	-1.273	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.318	2.000	-0.218	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.455	3.000	-1.455	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0500	0.0000	0.7500	0.3000	1.0500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	14.200	4.000	13.000	2.000	15.000	2.000	2.4545	1.0227	0.2727	0.8864	0.1364	1.0227	0.1364
season	0.20	11	15.200	4.000	14.000	3.000	16.000	2.000	2.2979	1.0851	0.2553	0.8936	0.1915	1.0213	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_ER	0.4570
predicted_ERA	3.0841
predicted_H	1.1950
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3160
predicted_WHIP	1.2151

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4260	0.1659	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4570	0.1780	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0841	3.0841	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1950	0.4655	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1430	0.0557	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3160	0.5126	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2151	1.2151	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.30
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	35
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	21
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	687606
playerID	687606
playerName	Paxton Schultz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 13

All-history rows before 20260514: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.938	2.200	-1.838	-2.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.615	3.000	0.385	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	1.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.9310	0.2069	0.8276	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	20.200	6.000	16.000	4.000	17.000	2.000	2.6129	0.9677	0.2903	0.7742	0.1935	0.8226	0.0968
season	0.20	13	28.000	10.000	26.000	6.000	21.000	3.000	3.2143	1.1429	0.3571	0.9286	0.2143	0.7500	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_ER	0.4060
predicted_ERA	3.0208
predicted_H	1.0970
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0660
predicted_WHIP	1.1930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3480	0.1566	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4060	0.1827	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0208	3.0208	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0970	0.4936	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1090	0.0490	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.1000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0660	1.5798	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1930	1.1930	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	36
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Home Team: CIN

Blake Dunn (694362) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 2

All-history rows before 20260514: 2

System season_avg: 0.4290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4286

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.429	0.333	-0.095	0.000
predicted_BB	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.500	1.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.556	0.500	-0.306	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.534	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	1.000	0.667	-0.667	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.534	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.421	-0.079
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.574	0.074
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000
predicted_BB	0.825	-0.175
predicted_H	0.914	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.185	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.000
predicted_R	0.499	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.534	0.000
predicted_SO	0.965	-0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	7.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.4286	0.5556	1.0000	0.4286	0.1429	0.1429	0.2857	0.2857
last_10	0.35	2	-	7.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.4286	0.5556	1.0000	0.4286	0.1429	0.1429	0.2857	0.2857
season	0.20	2	-	7.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.4286	0.5556	1.0000	0.4286	0.1429	0.1429	0.2857	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2580
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.7290
predicted_AVG	0.2865
predicted_BB	0.4600
predicted_H	1.0680
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.2150
predicted_OBP	0.3631
predicted_R	0.4960
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.5341
predicted_SO	0.8920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.2580	0.4213	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0036	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7290	3.5744	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2865	0.2862	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4600	0.8245	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.0680	0.9141	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.2150	0.1846	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3631	0.3630	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4960	0.4987	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4790	0.4122	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5340	0.5341	0.5340	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8920	0.9649	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.429

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	694362
playerID	694362
playerName	Blake Dunn
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 43

All-history rows before 20260514: 43

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2948

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.209	1.000	-0.209	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.023	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.023	5.000	-0.023	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.384	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.400	-0.295	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_H	1.390	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.186	2.000	-1.186	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.409	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.400	-0.356	-0.400
predicted_R	0.721	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.721	1.000	-0.721	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.674	0.000	-0.674	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.520	0.600	-0.520	-0.600
predicted_SO	1.233	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.233	1.000	1.767	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.023	-
predicted_AVG	0.384	-
predicted_BB	0.395	-
predicted_H	1.390	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.409	-
predicted_R	0.721	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	-
predicted_SO	1.233	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	0.056
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.141	0.119
predicted_AVG	0.384	0.000
predicted_BB	0.264	-0.131
predicted_H	1.528	0.138
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.409	0.000
predicted_R	0.663	-0.058
predicted_RBI	0.364	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.500	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.126	-0.107

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.369 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.023

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5909	0.5000	0.0000	0.0454	0.0000	0.2273
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	15.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	0.3488	0.3696	0.4186	0.3488	0.0000	0.0930	0.0465	0.2558
season	0.20	43	-	173.000	51.000	9.000	10.000	29.000	31.000	17.000	53.000	0.2948	0.3560	0.5202	0.2948	0.0578	0.1676	0.0983	0.3064

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3030
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.2230
predicted_AVG	0.3840
predicted_BB	0.1740
predicted_H	1.6220
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.4092
predicted_R	0.6230
predicted_RBI	0.3870
predicted_SLG	0.4999
predicted_SO	1.0530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2090	0.3030	0.2647	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0230	4.2230	4.1415	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3840	0.3840	0.3840	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3950	0.1740	0.2640	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3900	1.6220	1.5275	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0610	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4090	0.4092	0.4091	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7210	0.6230	0.6629	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3870	0.3638	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5000	0.4999	0.4999	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2330	1.0530	1.1263	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 40

All-history rows before 20260514: 40

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2465

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	1.000	-0.175	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.550	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.550	4.000	0.450	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.500	0.004	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.325	1.000	-0.325	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	2.000	0.125	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.600	-0.071	-0.350
predicted_R	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.450	2.000	-0.450	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	1.000	-0.350	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.444	0.750	-0.194	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	0.000	-0.900	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.550	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.325	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.432	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.794	0.244
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000
predicted_BB	0.291	-0.034
predicted_H	0.911	0.121
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.169	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.596	0.146
predicted_RBI	0.369	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.000
predicted_SO	0.784	-0.116

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952	0.0476	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.4500	0.2750	0.0500	0.1000	0.0750	0.1500
season	0.20	40	-	142.000	35.000	7.000	7.000	14.000	18.000	13.000	36.000	0.2465	0.3208	0.4437	0.2465	0.0493	0.0986	0.0916	0.2535

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9680
predicted_AVG	0.2513
predicted_BB	0.2670
predicted_H	0.9970
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1830
predicted_OBP	0.3015
predicted_R	0.7000
predicted_RBI	0.4040
predicted_SLG	0.4320
predicted_SO	0.7010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.1630	0.1680	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5500	3.9680	3.7937	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2513	0.2512	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3250	0.2670	0.2912	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9970	0.9107	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1830	0.1692	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3015	0.3013	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.7000	0.5957	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.4040	0.3690	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4320	0.4320	0.4320	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.7010	0.7840	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 15

All-history rows before 20260514: 15

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2917

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	0.800	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	3.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.333	0.042	0.000
predicted_BB	0.867	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.867	2.000	0.133	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	1.000	0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.412	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.443	0.600	0.057	-0.100
predicted_R	0.533	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.646	0.667	0.021	0.000
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	2.000	0.400	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.867	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.412	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.491	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.086	0.019
predicted_AB	3.306	0.106
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.880	0.013
predicted_H	0.817	0.097
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.412	0.000
predicted_R	0.491	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.718	0.088
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.000
predicted_SO	0.618	0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	0.2667	0.5000	0.4667	0.2667	0.0000	0.3333	0.4667	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	4.000	9.000	7.000	0.2857	0.4318	0.5714	0.2857	0.0571	0.2571	0.2571	0.2000
season	0.20	15	-	48.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	8.000	13.000	9.000	0.2917	0.4426	0.6458	0.2917	0.0833	0.2500	0.2708	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1960
predicted_3B	0.1050
predicted_AB	3.4070
predicted_AVG	0.2670
predicted_BB	0.8930
predicted_H	0.9100
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1200
predicted_OBP	0.4121
predicted_R	0.4510
predicted_RBI	0.8020
predicted_SLG	0.4914
predicted_SO	0.6360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1960	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.1050	0.0864	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.4070	3.3057	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2670	0.2670	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8670	0.8930	0.8803	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.9100	0.8170	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1200	0.1053	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4120	0.4121	0.4121	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.4510	0.4911	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.8020	0.7178	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4910	0.4914	0.4912	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6360	0.6184	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF-LF
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Dane Myers (667472) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.375	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.375	4.000	0.625
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	-0.222
predicted_BB	0.875	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.875	0.000	-0.875
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.000	-0.382
predicted_R	1.125	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	1.125	0.000	-1.125
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	3.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.375	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.875	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.381	-
predicted_R	1.125	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.400	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.035	0.035
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.436	0.061
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.856	-0.019
predicted_H	0.790	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.000
predicted_R	1.126	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.286	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.400	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.010	0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	7.000	6.000	0.2500	0.4783	0.4375	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.4375	0.3750
last_10	0.35	8	-	27.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	7.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3824	0.3333	0.2222	0.0370	0.0370	0.2593	0.2963
season	0.20	8	-	27.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	7.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3824	0.3333	0.2222	0.0370	0.0370	0.2593	0.2963

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0770
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5090
predicted_AVG	0.2425
predicted_BB	0.8330
predicted_H	0.8510
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.3810
predicted_R	1.1270
predicted_RBI	0.3060
predicted_SLG	0.3996
predicted_SO	1.0230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0770	0.0348	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0027	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3750	3.5090	3.4356	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2425	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8750	0.8330	0.8560	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8510	0.7902	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1540	0.1408	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3810	0.3810	0.3810	model_form_blend
predicted_R	1.1250	1.1270	1.1259	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3060	0.2863	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4000	0.3996	0.3998	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0230	1.0104	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	667472
playerID	667472
playerName	Dane Myers
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 43

All-history rows before 20260514: 43

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	0.000	0.814	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.814	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.814	4.000	-0.814	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.417	0.667
predicted_BB	0.488	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.488	1.000	0.512	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.953	0.000	1.047	2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.332	0.200	0.418	0.550
predicted_R	0.605	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.605	1.000	-0.605	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.698	0.000	-0.698	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.482	0.000	0.518	1.000
predicted_SO	0.814	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.814	0.000	0.186	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.814	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.488	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.605	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	0.814	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	0.049
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.952	0.138
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.374	-0.114
predicted_H	0.967	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.086	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.638	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.212	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000
predicted_SO	0.875	0.061

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.814

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.3810	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.2195	0.2727	0.3415	0.2195	0.0244	0.0244	0.0732	0.2195
season	0.20	43	-	164.000	41.000	8.000	10.000	30.000	26.000	21.000	35.000	0.2500	0.3316	0.4817	0.2500	0.0610	0.1829	0.1280	0.2134

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2690
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0480
predicted_AVG	0.2538
predicted_BB	0.2950
predicted_H	1.0270
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.3050
predicted_R	0.6610
predicted_RBI	0.2270
predicted_SLG	0.3883
predicted_SO	0.9170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.2690	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8140	4.0480	3.9524	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2538	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4880	0.2950	0.3738	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.0270	0.9670	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0900	0.0859	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3050	0.3050	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6050	0.6610	0.6381	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2270	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3883	0.3882	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8140	0.9170	0.8749	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 39

All-history rows before 20260514: 39

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2081

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	4.000	0.179	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.250	-0.208	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.513	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.795	1.000	-0.795	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.250	-0.310	-0.250
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.315	0.500	-0.315	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.821	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.513	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.319	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.668	-0.153
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.430	-0.083
predicted_H	0.752	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.000
predicted_R	0.271	-0.114
predicted_RBI	0.568	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.319	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.759	-0.241

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.821

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.2941	0.2353	0.0000	0.2353	0.1177	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2632	0.3143	0.2000	0.0286	0.1429	0.0857	0.1429
season	0.20	39	-	149.000	31.000	7.000	3.000	14.000	15.000	20.000	39.000	0.2081	0.3099	0.3154	0.2081	0.0201	0.0940	0.1342	0.2617

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5610
predicted_AVG	0.2214
predicted_BB	0.3720
predicted_H	0.7880
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.2976
predicted_R	0.1910
predicted_RBI	0.5950
predicted_SLG	0.3187
predicted_SO	0.5900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1640	0.1702	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8210	3.5610	3.6684	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2214	0.2212	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5130	0.3720	0.4302	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7880	0.7516	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0590	0.0553	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2976	0.2978	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.1910	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5950	0.5681	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3190	0.3187	0.3188	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5900	0.7594	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Jose Trevino (624431) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 11

All-history rows before 20260514: 11

System season_avg: 0.1250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.182	2.000	1.818	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.125	0.000	0.125	0.250
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.160	0.000	0.090	0.250
predicted_R	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.091	1.000	-0.091	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.167	0.000	0.083	0.250
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.350	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.237	-
predicted_R	0.125	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.311	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	0.025
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.131	0.131
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.138	0.013
predicted_H	0.479	0.129
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.000
predicted_R	0.213	0.088
predicted_RBI	0.164	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.311	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.528	0.028

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.1538	0.1538	0.2308	0.1538	0.0000	0.0769
last_10	0.35	8	-	24.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1250	0.1600	0.1667	0.1250	0.0417	0.1667
season	0.20	8	-	24.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1250	0.1600	0.1667	0.1250	0.0417	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.3110
predicted_AVG	0.1988
predicted_BB	0.1550
predicted_H	0.6580
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.2373
predicted_R	0.3340
predicted_RBI	0.2240
predicted_SLG	0.3107
predicted_SO	0.5660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1840	0.1498	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0029	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3110	3.1305	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1988	0.1989	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.1550	0.1376	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3500	0.6580	0.4792	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0580	0.0417	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2370	0.2373	0.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1250	0.3340	0.2127	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.2240	0.1636	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3110	0.3107	0.3109	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5660	0.5277	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.125

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	624431
playerID	624431
playerName	Jose Trevino
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CIN
teamID	7

Ke'Bryan Hayes (663647) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 32

All-history rows before 20260514: 32

System season_avg: 0.1360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1359

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.219	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.219	2.000	0.781	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.136	0.000	0.114	0.250
predicted_BB	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.218	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.191	0.000	0.059	0.250
predicted_R	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.261	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.223	0.000	0.027	0.250
predicted_SO	0.594	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.594	0.000	0.406	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.219	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.219	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.218	-
predicted_R	0.219	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.261	-
predicted_SO	0.594	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.035	0.004
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.297	0.078
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.163	-0.056
predicted_H	0.573	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.218	0.000
predicted_R	0.185	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.143	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.714	0.120

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.797

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	0.1818	0.2059	0.2727	0.1818	0.0303	0.0606	0.0303	0.2727
season	0.20	32	-	103.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	19.000	0.1359	0.1909	0.2233	0.1359	0.0194	0.0291	0.0680	0.1845

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0390
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.3580
predicted_AVG	0.1899
predicted_BB	0.1180
predicted_H	0.6380
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.2183
predicted_R	0.1580
predicted_RBI	0.1610
predicted_SLG	0.2609
predicted_SO	0.8080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0310	0.0390	0.0355	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0080	0.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2190	3.3580	3.2968	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1899	0.1899	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2190	0.1180	0.1625	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6380	0.5728	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0610	0.0562	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2180	0.2183	0.2182	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2190	0.1580	0.1849	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1610	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2610	0.2609	0.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5940	0.8080	0.7137	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.136

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663647
playerID	663647
playerName	Ke'Bryan Hayes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Chase Burns (695505) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 8

All-history rows before 20260514: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	3.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.375	1.000	1.625	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.125	4.000	-1.125	-1.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	3.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.787	6.000	-2.687	-2.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	6.000	2.000	-2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.200	5.000	20.000	8.000	30.000	3.000	1.4674	0.9130	0.1630	0.6522	0.2609	0.9783	0.0978
last_10	0.35	8	47.000	11.000	33.000	16.000	48.000	6.000	2.1064	1.0426	0.2340	0.7021	0.3404	1.0213	0.1277
season	0.20	8	47.000	11.000	33.000	16.000	48.000	6.000	2.1064	1.0426	0.2340	0.7021	0.3404	1.0213	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6040
predicted_ER	1.4570
predicted_ERA	2.6367
predicted_H	3.8420
predicted_HR	0.5750
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.8690
predicted_WHIP	1.0947

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.6040	1.8069	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.4570	2.2478	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6367	2.6367	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	3.8420	3.4105	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5750	0.2803	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	5.0000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.8690	4.4236	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0947	1.0947	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	17
Pitches	75

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.11
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	49
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	695505
playerID	695505
playerName	Chase Burns
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 21

All-history rows before 20260514: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.619	1.000	-0.619	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.190	0.000	0.810	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.619	0.000	0.381	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.976	1.000	0.124	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.190	1.000	0.810	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.3529	0.7059	1.4118	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	5.000	8.000	12.000	1.000	1.6875	1.2188	0.1875	0.4688	0.7500	1.1250	0.0938
season	0.20	21	21.200	4.000	13.000	13.000	25.000	1.000	1.6615	1.2000	0.1846	0.6000	0.6000	1.1539	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6230
predicted_ER	0.4370
predicted_ERA	3.3359
predicted_H	0.8370
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2940
predicted_WHIP	1.2378

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6230	0.2635	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4370	0.7619	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3359	3.3359	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8370	0.9311	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1480	0.6397	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2940	1.7014	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2378	1.2378	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Pierce Johnson (572955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 19

All-history rows before 20260514: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	1.000	-0.316	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.842	1.000	0.158	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.711	1.000	0.389	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	0.6000	0.8000	0.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	1.000	3.7241	1.2414	0.4138	0.7241	0.5172	0.7241	0.1035
season	0.20	19	17.000	7.000	16.000	6.000	15.000	2.000	3.7059	1.2941	0.4118	0.9412	0.3529	0.8823	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5680
predicted_ER	0.5290
predicted_ERA	3.9737
predicted_H	1.0160
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	0.9800
predicted_WHIP	1.3210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5680	0.2259	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5290	0.2104	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9737	3.9737	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0160	1.0064	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1210	0.0481	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9800	0.9920	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3210	1.3210	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.71
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	572955
playerID	572955
playerName	Pierce Johnson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Brock Burke (656271) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.850	1.000	1.150	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.820	2.000	0.180	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.150	1.000	-0.150	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	5.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	8.4375	2.2500	0.9375	1.3125	0.9375	1.1250
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	5.000	9.000	7.000	12.000	4.3548	1.5484	0.4839	0.8710	0.6774	1.1613
season	0.20	20	19.200	6.000	17.000	11.000	23.000	2.7458	1.4237	0.3051	0.8644	0.5593	1.1695

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5520
predicted_ER	0.5470
predicted_ERA	4.9224
predicted_H	0.9960
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0410
predicted_WHIP	1.5473

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5520	0.2278	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5470	0.8130	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9224	4.9224	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9960	1.5856	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0720	0.6170	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0410	1.0169	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5473	1.5473	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.75
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656271
playerID	656271
playerName	Brock Burke
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Connor Phillips (683175) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 20

All-history rows before 20260514: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.100	1.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.650	1.000	0.350	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.920	1.200	0.080	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.150	2.000	-1.150	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	7.000	7.000	4.000	8.000	0.000	11.1176	1.9412	1.2353	1.2353	0.7059	1.4118	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	8.000	11.000	8.000	13.000	0.000	6.3529	1.6765	0.7059	0.9706	0.7059	1.1471	0.0000
season	0.20	19	21.200	11.000	16.000	18.000	23.000	1.000	4.5692	1.5692	0.5077	0.7385	0.8308	1.0615	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5420
predicted_ER	0.6680
predicted_ERA	6.0129
predicted_H	0.9870
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0920
predicted_WHIP	1.5297

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5420	0.8063	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6680	0.8596	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.0129	6.0129	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9870	1.5716	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0920	0.4618	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5297	1.5297	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	32
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	683175
playerID	683175
playerName	Connor Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260514: 19

All-history rows before 20260514: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.579	1.000	-0.579	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.895	1.000	-0.895	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.858	1.000	0.142	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.895	0.000	1.105	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	4.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.3077	1.8462	0.9231	1.3846	0.4615	0.6923	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	11.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	7.0000	1.5556	0.7778	1.2222	0.3333	0.7778	0.5556
season	0.20	18	17.000	7.000	13.000	9.000	17.000	5.000	3.7059	1.2941	0.4118	0.7647	0.5294	1.0000	0.2941

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4000
predicted_ER	0.5880
predicted_ERA	5.2895
predicted_H	1.0460
predicted_HR	0.3040
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8880
predicted_WHIP	1.4462

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4000	0.7613	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5880	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2895	5.2895	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0460	0.4161	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3040	0.1209	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8880	1.5577	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4462	1.4462	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.82
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7